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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Missouri v. Arkansas -4		64-70	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-11-21	Canadiens v. Flames -114	Top	1-2	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
Calgary is close to being in must-win mode and this spot sets up beautifully for the Flames. Montreal just beat the Canucks in Vancouver, 5-1, late Wednesday night. So Montreal didn't get into Calgary until the wee hours of the morning. This will be the Canadiens' third game in four days and they will be playing without rest. Backup goalie Jake Allen likely will be in net since Carey Price played Wednesday. The Canadiens lost key defenseman Ben Chiarot to injury in that victory. The Flames are six points behind the Canadiens for the final playoff spot in the NHL's North Division. So this is a crucial matchup for the Flames with a potential four-point swing at play. Calgary certainly isn't going to lack motivation and preparation. No-nonsense Darryl Sutter has taken over as coach at Calgary. This will be his first game behind the bench. Flames assistant coach Ryan Huska acted as the team's head coach during the last two games following the firing of Geoff Ward a week ago. The Flames lost those games to the Oilers and lowly Senators. Calgary hasn't played since Sunday. Sutter has put the Flames through intense practices in anticipation of winning this game and getting his underacheiving team on track. This is what Sutter was quoted as saying on Wednesday, "Montreal is in our division and they’re a very good hockey club. Right now, we’re behind them in the standings so we know the importance of tomorrow night and the bottom line is we’ll be ready for it.” I don't doubt him.
03-11-21	Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 222.5		101-134	Loss	-105	11 h 2 m	Show
Except for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Julius Randle, both of whom played in last Sunday's All-Star Game, the rest of the Knicks and Bucks have been idle for a week. So there should be a rust factor. Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau has turned the Knicks into the No. 1 defense in the NBA. New York ranks first in scoring defense holding foes to 104.4 points a game, first in defensive field goal percentage and also is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Under is 7-1 in New York's last eight road games. The Bucks have averaged just 104.6 points in their last three games as they adjust back to point guard Jrue Holiday, who had been out because of COVID-19.
03-11-21	Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15		51-58	Loss	-110	12 h 18 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams.
03-11-21	Morgan State v. Florida A&M OVER 138.5		77-75	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
Morgan State is all about scoring. Florida A&M had the best defense in the Md-Eastern Athletic Conference. So this matchup makes it hard for the oddsmaker to make a good total. I think he set this total too short. The Bears rank 19th in the country in scoring at 80.7 points per game. They rank No. 2 in the conference in 3-point shooting. The Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. I see the Bears doing their share to get this total to go Over. But will Florida A&M? I believe the Rattlers will. Morgan State ranks 261st in scoring defense. The Bears have permitted an average of 75.1 points in their past eight games. This is a short spread, too, so overtime is a possibility.
03-11-21	Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5		60-75	Win	100	11 h 11 m	Show
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
03-11-21	Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 141		72-71	Loss	-108	7 h 17 m	Show
Did you see how well Georgetown defended against Marquette on Wednesday? Darn impressive. The Hoyas held Marquette to 49 points. Georgetown has been playing stronger defense the past four weeks. If you discount their road game against Connecticut, the Hoyas have surrendered an average of just 63.7 points during their last seven games. Georgetown catches Villanova down leading scorer Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, the Wildcats' No. 3 scorer. Both are injured. Minus Gillespie and Moore, the Wildcats lost, 54-52, to Providence this past Saturday shooting just 33 percent from the floor. So Villanova really is going to be stressing defense. The Wildcats have held their past five opponents to only 61 points per game. Note, too, the venue being Madison Square Garden, which is known as a great Under court. An early start is another bonus for the Under.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-10-21	Coyotes v. Avalanche -1.5		1-2	Loss	-100	13 h 45 m	Show
Colorado has lost consecutive games to the Coyotes and Ducks both as a big home favorite. The Avalanche didn't have star center Nathan MacKinnon in either of those games. MacKinnon is set to return tonight and I look for the Avalanche to get short revenge on Arizona after losing, 3-2, to the Coyotes two days ago. This is Arizona's fourth game in six days and the Coyotes are playing in Denver's high altitude. So this game could get out of hand in Colorado's favor during the third period if not earlier. Until that Monday loss, the Avalanche had beaten Arizona six times in a row at home. The Coyotes' upset win against Colorado on Monday came with a price: Starting goalie Darcy Kuemper left early in the third period with an injury. He won't play today.
03-10-21	Coyotes v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		1-2	Loss	-100	13 h 43 m	Show
Colorado is averaging 3.5 goals a game during its last games. The Avalanche have done this minus their dynamic goal scorer Nathan MacKinnon for the past three games. The Coyotes are a slightly below average defensive team. They have surrendered 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 14 games. Arizona has averaged 3.0 goals during its past four games. The Coyotes catch Colorado short-handed on the blue line with defensemen Cale Makar and Bowen Byram both out due to upper-body injuries.
03-10-21	Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 238	Top	112-127	Loss	-110	13 h 46 m	Show
I understand the Wizards play no defense, but have the capability with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to light up the scoreboard thus proving tough to make an Under work. But there are enough factors here to feel confident that this total has been set too high. Beal was the only player from either team to play in last Sunday's All-Star game. All the other players haven't played in six days. That's just too long to go between games without there being a rust factor. Washington hosted Memphis eight days ago. The Grizzlies shot 49 percent from the floor and won, 125-111. The Wizards made 51 percent of their field goals. Beal and Westbrook both played. Yet the combined score came out to 236. This total opened higher. The Grizzlies have given up 112 points or fewer in five of their last six games despite playing the Mavericks, Clippers twice, Bucks and Wizards during this span. Memphis ranks eighth in the NBA defensively allowing 110.8 points. The Wizards have scored 116 points or fewer in regulation in five of their last seven games. They have given up fewer than 118 points in four of their last five games. The Under has cashed in seven of Washington's past nine road contests.
03-10-21	Loyola Maryland v. Army OVER 133.5		67-63	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
Army is coming off an 89-point performance against American in its last game. But the strongest part of my handicap to the Over is what Loyola Maryland can do offensively. Loyola Maryland just scored 76 points against Navy, which gives up 66.5 points per game. Loyola Maryland has reached at least 70 points in all but one of its last 14 games. The Greyhounds also have had star guard Cam Spencer back for the last three games after he had been out. Spencer led Loyola Maryland in scoring at 24 points per game and assists last season. He's rounding into shape and gives the Greyhounds their top passer and a fourth double-digit scorer.
03-10-21	Northern Arizona v. Portland State OVER 130.5		77-66	Win	100	12 h 39 m	Show
It's rare to see a total this low on a game involving Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have the top scorer in the Big Sky Conference, Cameron Shelton. He averages 20.2 points a game. The Lumberjacks also are one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 75.4 points while ranking 345th in defensive field goal percentage and 339th in 3-point defense. They are giving up an average of 85.7 points during their past four games. Both teams are stepping way down in class for this first-round Big Sky Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Boise, Idaho. Northern Arizona just played its last four games against the conference's two best teams, Southern Utah and Weber State. The Lumberjacks averaged 71 points in their last two games. Portland State just played two games against Southern Utah, the No. 1 team in the Big Sky. So the Vikings' current low scoring numbers are skewed. This is the first meeting of the season between Northern Arizona and Portland State. I see that as a plus for the Over since the team's lack familiarity with each other. Northern Arizona could have problems, for instance, handling Portland State's full-court defensive pressure. Vikings guard James Scott led the Big Sky in steals. He's also averaging 18 points in his last three games and is a good ball distributor. Note, too, that Portland State ranks 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding. So they should be able to get a number of putbacks against a defense as soft as Northern Arizona's.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-09-21	Predators v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5		2-3	Loss	-125	5 h 41 m	Show
Nashville has played four consecutive Overs. During this span, the Predators have scored 12 goals while giving up 18. The Predators are running into a Hurricanes squad that is averaging four goals per game during their last five games. Center Vincent Trocheck is having a career year for the Hurricanes with 22 points in 23 games, including 13 goals.
03-09-21	Oakland v. Cleveland State OVER 139.5		69-80	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
This is a low total for a game involving Oakland. Cleveland State's defense isn't that good. Oakland ranks 341st defensively giving up 82 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies rank 334th in 3-point defense and 331st in defensive field goal percentage. Until holding Northern Kentucky to a surprisingly low 58 points on Monday, the Golden Grizzlies had allowed 80 or more points in seven straight games. Before yesterday's game, Oakland also had scored 78 or more points in 14 of its last 16 games. Cleveland State ranks 154th giving up more than 69 points a game. The Vikings were allowing an average of 71.4 points during their last eight games until holding Wisconsin-Milwaukee to 65 points in a six-point victory. The Vikings started cold in that game, but scored 47 points in the second half. That bodes well for a big scoring effort here. Both teams have had a chance to get used to the Indianapolis neutral site setting, which is where the Horizon League Conference Tournament is taking place.
03-09-21	McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana		68-71	Loss	-110	14 h 59 m	Show
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
03-08-21	Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5		5-6	Loss	-128	19 h 40 m	Show
These two defensive-minded Southern California rivals meet again Wednesday. So expect a conservative, feeling-out type of matchup here where few chances are taken. The Kings rank 18th in scoring at 2.9 goals per game. That average shrinks to 2.1 in regulation during their past six games. The Ducks are 30th in scoring at 2.2 goals a game. They also rank in the bottom-four in shots on goal and power play efficiency. The Kings are a top-12 defensive team. LA and Anaheim met once this season with the Ducks winning, 3-1, on the road Feb. 2.
03-08-21	Blues v. Sharks OVER 6		2-3	Loss	-105	18 h 37 m	Show
Only the Sharks could score six goals - and lose. That's what happened when these two teams last met on Feb. 27. St. Louis edged the Sharks, 7-6. Now I'm certainly not expecting a repeat of 13 goals to be scored. But it's not overly optimistic thinking to believe at least six goals will be produced. San Jose, after all, is the worst defensive team in the NHL giving up 3.9 goals per game. The Blues also didn't have prolific goal scorer Vladimir Tarasenko for that game. Tarasenko made his season debut this past Saturday against the Kings and looked good playing on the first power play unit, firing off four shots and logging 16:25 of ice time. St. Louis already is a top-10 scoring team even missing Tarasenko, who was recovering from a shoulder injury. The Blues have scored 3 or more goals in each of their last five games. San Jose has one of the least effective goalie tandems in Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk. The Sharks, though, dominated and flustered Blues goalie Jordan Binnington in that crazy Feb. 27 game scoring four goals on 19 shots before Binnington was yanked. An irate Binnington charged three Sharks players on his way off the ice. Don't think the Sharks have forgotten about that. St. Louis is below average defensively. The Sharks have been hit or miss lately on offense, but they have scored 4 or more goals in four of their last seven games.
03-08-21	Senators v. Oilers -1.5		2-3	Loss	-100	12 h 43 m	Show
Edmonton is 4-0 versus Ottawa this season. The Oilers are in a good spot to make it 5-0. Obviously the oddsmaker agrees making the Oilers a massive favorite. I can't lay that price, but I can turn this into a plus price by getting involved with Edmonton on the puck line. The Oilers beat the Senators by multiple goals in three of their four games. The Oilers draw the Senators after Ottawa just upset the Flames on the road, 4-3, in a shootout Sunday night. The Senators got away with being whistled for 10 penalties. It was just Ottawa's 15th away victory in its last 67 road contests. NHL points leader Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who ranks third in the league in points, are in line for huge performances. The Senators have the worst defense in the league surrendering 3.9 goals per game. The Senators are likely to start third-string goalie Joey Daccord, too. Matt Murray played last night and backup Marcus Hogberg is on injured reserve.
03-08-21	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State OVER 140.5	Top	65-71	Loss	-110	17 h 53 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has played nine Over games in a row. I'm not expecting that streak to end in its Horizon League Conference Tournament semifinal game against Cleveland State at neutral site Indianapolis. Sparked by their explosive backcourt tandem of DeAndre Gholston and Te'Jon Lucas, who are combining to average 46 points this season, the Panthers are averaging 80.5 points in regulation during their last six games. But what makes the Panthers such a strong Over team is their lack of defense. They are surrendering an average of 82.5 points in regulation during their past six games. Cleveland State, the No. 1 seed in the tournament, averaged 69.5 points on the season while giving up 69.4. The Vikings, though, have shown some defensive slippage. They've allowed 71.4 points in regulation during their last seven games. They were fortunate to survive their first-round tournament game against 10th-seeded Purdue Fort Wayne winning, 108-104, in triple overtime. The Over is 7-2-1 in Cleveland State's last 10 games. While the Vikings' defense is showing vulnerability, their offense should fare well against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers rank 297th in scoring defense and 332nd in 3-point defense.
03-07-21	UMKC v. North Dakota State OVER 119		65-69	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
I get that these are two slow-paced teams meeting in a neutral site setting at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, S.D. for this first round Summit League Tournament game. But this total is set too low, way too low especially based on current form. UMKC averages 70.3 points a game. The Roos rank eighth in the nation in field goal percentage at 50 percent and 3are 7th in 3-point percentage making 37.3 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They have five players averaging double-figures in scoring. North Dakota State is surrendering 79.6 points its last three games. The Bison are averaging 77 points during their past five games. The Roos are permitting an average of 75 points in their last three games.
03-07-21	Senators v. Flames OVER 6		4-3	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
Calgary is coming off a 3-2 loss to Edmonton on Saturday. The Flames fired 36 shots on goal and had a season-high 40 hits in the game. If the Flames play like that against the Senators, they should light up the scoreboard. Ottawa gives up the most goals in the NHL at 3.8 per game. The Senators also are the third-worst at killing off penalties. Goalie Matt Murray has thus far been a huge disappointment for Ottawa. Ottawa has been idle the past two days. The Senators have fresh legs and should come after the Flames, who have given up 3 or more goals in each of their last five games. The Senators have scored at least 3 goals during eight of their past 10 games. Before falling to the Oilers last night, the Flames had played the Senators four straight games. In those games, there were 7, 9, 6 and 10 combined goals scored.
03-07-21	Florida v. Tennessee -4.5		54-65	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida.
03-06-21	Blues v. Kings UNDER 5.5		3-4	Loss	-111	12 h 20 m	Show
The Blues and Kings have met three times since Feb. 22. The scores of those games were 3-0, 2-1 and 3-2 in overtime last night with the Blues winning. St. Louis won Friday's game with backup Ville Husso in net. So the pattern is set. The Blues have to play more conservative due to their multiple injuries, while the Kings stick to their tight in the neutral zone game plan looking to win a low-scoring game. It worked for the Kings in their 3-0 and 2-1 victories against the Blues during the past 12 days so they have no reason to change. We're expected to get both team's "A" goalies, too. Jordan Binnington has a .918 saves percentage against the Kings this season, while LA netminder Jonathan Quick is a dominant 2-0 with a 1.51 GAA and .952 save percentage versus St. Louis this season.
03-06-21	CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego		78-85	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
03-06-21	Wild v. Coyotes +136		2-5	Win	136	10 h 53 m	Show
Arizona outshot and outhit Minnesota during their home game on Friday night. You wouldn't know that by the score, though. The Wild embarrassed the Coyotes, 5-1, leaving Arizona coach Rick Tocchet fuming. Tocchet ripped a bunch of his best players following the game, although he didn't name names. Still, the message got across. So I'm going to get behind the home 'dog Coyotes in this spot. Arizona's record hasn't been very good this season. Keep in mind, though, teams have played funny schedules because of the pandemic. The Coyotes, for instance, have met the Golden Knights and Blues 11 times already. That has been 48 percent of their games. Las Vegas and St. Louis rank first and second, respectively, for most points in the eight-team West Division that features the Wild and Coyotes.
03-06-21	Jets v. Canadiens OVER 5.5		1-7	Win	100	4 h 20 m	Show
The teams just met two days ago and there were seven goals scored in the Jets' 4-3 overtime victory. It was the 10th time in the last 14 meetings between the two teams that the Over has cashed. If you take out a 4-0 loss to the Canucks, the Jets are averaging 4.2 goals in their last five games. Winnipeg is the third-highest scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.4 goals per game. The Canadiens rank seventh in scoring, averaging 3.2 goals. Montreal has scored 3 or more goals in four of its last five games.
03-06-21	Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State		54-79	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-06-21	Texas A&M v. Arkansas OVER 136.5		80-87	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
I understand that Texas A&M is just getting back to playing basketball again after being ravaged by COVID-19 issues. But a total this low on an Arkansas game just begs for the Over to cover. It's the lowest total on a Razorbacks game all season. Only six teams average more points per game than Arkansas, which puts up an average of 83.2. The Razorbacks have produced at least 81 points in five of their last six. They are in peak form, too, winning 10 straight SEC games, including beating South Carolina, 101-73, on the road this past Tuesday in their last game. The key is if the Aggies can contribute their share of points. Texas A&M hadn't played since Jan. 30 before losing, 63-57, to Mississippi State this past Wednesday. Obviously the Aggies had a lot of rust to get off. But they only had five turnovers in that game and now some of that rust has been rinsed away. Arkansas gives up 70.3 points per game. So the Aggies aren't facing a defensive giant.
03-06-21	American v. Army OVER 132.5		66-89	Win	100	10 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker has set too low of a total on this Patriot League Conference Tournament matchup. American is averaging 79.5 points in its last two games. Army has surrendered an average of 76.6 points in its last five games if you discount its last game. Army can shoot ranking 107th in field goal percentage. The Black Knights put up 69 points on Florida earlier this season. American has yielded 68 or more points in eight of its nine games.
03-06-21	Panthers v. Predators +126		6-2	Loss	-100	6 h 49 m	Show
The Predators have been disappointing this season. But I see them playing with a great deal of urgency in this rapid revenge scenario. Florida built up 3-goal leads twice against the Predators this past Thursday and had to hang on to win, 5-4. Following this matchup, the Panthers travel to Carolina for a Sunday game against the Hurricanes. Carolina nipped the Panthers, once in overtime and once in a shootout, before Florida beat Nashville two days ago. The Panthers could get caught looking ahead to that double revenge game against the Hurricanes on Sunday, while the Predators have their own revenge spot right here. Nashville has been looking better lately winning four of its last seven games, while the Panthers are 3-4 in their last seven games.
03-05-21	Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6		5-4	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
Anytime I see a total of 6 or lower on a Sharks game my immediate lean is to the Over. That's the case here. The Golden Knights rank 13th in scoring averaging 3.1 goals a game. They have four good lines to keep the pressure on the Sharks, who are the worst defensive team in the NHL giving up 3.8 goals a game. San Jose has surrendered at least 3 goals in 16 of its 20 games this season. The Sharks have permitted 4 or more goals in half of their games. The Sharks are capable on offense. They were averaging 4.7 goals in their last four games until getting shut out, 4-0, at home by Colorado two days ao. The Sharks would like to atone for getting blanked with a big offensive performance. This has become a fierce rivalry. These teams dislike each other very much. So running up a score could happen if one team breaks out to a big lead.
03-05-21	Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks		3-4	Loss	-100	10 h 43 m	Show
The Blackhawks are at least two levels, if not three levels, behind the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. The Blackhawks, though, played a spirited game on Thursday giving the Lightning all they could handle before falling, 3-2, when Tampa Bay scored with one second left in overtime. The Blackhawks blew a 2-0 second period lead. Tampa Bay should be more prepared this time around while the Blackhawks could be mentally down playing right away again without rest. The Lightning have defeated Chicago now five straight times on the road. The Lightning are 43-16 (73 percent) the past 59 times following a victory. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the best goalie in hockey this season. He could get the call again. If not I'm fine with Tampa Bay backup goalie Curtis McElhinney. Likewise, Chicago could turn to backup goalie Malcolm Subban since this is a back-to-back spot. Subban surrendered five goals to the offensively-challenged Red Wings in his last start six days ago.
03-05-21	Tarleton St v. UT-Rio Grande Valley OVER 132		65-47	Loss	-108	15 h 21 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker was thrown off by having to set a total on Tarleton State, which has played a lot of non-Division I schools. But this Over/Under has opened too low. I understand it's tough to get a full read on Tarleton State. But Rio Grande Valley isn't a strong defensive team to justify a total set this low. The Vaqueros have given up an average of 73.3 points in their last three games. Rio Grande Valley has averaged 82.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a 69-51 loss to New Mexico State. The Vaqueros have one of the top all-around guards in Javon Levi.
03-05-21	Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7		71-69	Loss	-105	15 h 4 m	Show
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-05-21	Boston College v. Miami-FL UNDER 148		76-80	Loss	-107	13 h 34 m	Show
I can understand where the oddsmaker is coming from when he made this total. Boston College beat Miami, 84-62, at home on Jan. 12. So 146 points were scored in that game. The Eagles, though, went crazy in that matchup sinking 18 of 35 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent 3-point shooting. Boston College's season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.7. Since that game, the Eagles are averaging 66.2 points in their last five games if you discount their matchup against Notre Dame two games ago. The Eagles rank 263rd in field goal shooting. Miami is averaging 64.2 points in its last five games. The Hurricanes are a well below average offensive team. They rank 307th out of 340 Division I teams in scoring, 284th in field goal percentage and 329th in 3-point percentage.
03-04-21	Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State		59-72	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
03-04-21	Senators v. Flames -1.5		3-7	Win	130	15 h 31 m	Show
Calgary has been idle since returning home from three games at Ottawa. The Flames went 1-2 in those games with the last occurring in a 5-1 loss this past Monday. I want the rested Flames going for me in this revenge spot especially now they're getting back forward Derek Ryan and starting goalie Jacob Markstrom. The latest loss to Ottawa put Flames coach Geoff Ward's job in jeopardy. So I believe the Flames are primed for a big effort. This will be the Senators' third game in four days. They are 0-6 the past six times in this type of situation. They also have lost 10 of the past 13 times in Calgary. Ottawa has been a terrible road team losing 51 of their last 65 away contests.
03-04-21	Thunder +7 v. Spurs	Top	107-102	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk.
03-04-21	Illinois State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 142	Top	60-65	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
The Missouri Valley Conference always has been a defensive-minded conference populated by good coaches. So I think Under first when looking at Missouri Valley Conference matchups especially during tournament time when the games are held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This venue is notorious for being tough to score in as a neutral site with the Under cashing better than 65 percent on opening numbers during the last 10 years. The season is finished for the loser of this game. So the intensity level should be at full throttle. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are well acquainted having just played two games against each other to close out its regular seasons. Northern Iowa won 70-56 for a total of 126 points two games ago. The Panthers then beat Illinois State again, 94-87, in overtime. Note, though, the score was 70-70 during regulation. Illinois State hasn't broken 67 points in seven of its last 11 games. Northern Iowa hasn't gone above 70 points in regulation during eight of its last nine games.
03-04-21	San Diego v. San Francisco UNDER 143.5		51-67	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
A combination of frequent COVID-19 pauses that caused them to miss 14 games plus key players quitting have taken a large toll on the Toreos this season. San Diego enters the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas 1-4 in its last five games. San Diego ranks 267th in scoring at 67.4 points a game, 263rd in shooting percentage and 268th in 3-point shooting. So the Toreos should do their part to make this Under work. So should San Francisco. The Dons have lost six in a row averaging 66.1 points during this span. San Francisco has made only 21.2 percent of its 3-point shots during this time frame. The teams met back on New Year's Eve in San Francisco and the Dons won, 70-62, for a total of 132 points.
03-04-21	Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes		2-5	Loss	-100	12 h 30 m	Show
OK, at even money plus 1 1/2 goals I can get involved with the Red Wings given this anti-Carolina situational spot. The Hurricanes just concluded a five-game road trip this past Tuesday night. They are riding a three-game win streak. This is their first home game since Feb. 22. It's easy for the Hurricanes to suffer a concentration lapse and letdown with the Red Wings as their opponent. Carolina also is carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hurricanes will be playing their sixth game in nine days. The teams split two games in Detroit to open the season in January. Most of this handicap is a fade on Carolina, but the Red Wings would be 8-5 in their last 13 games if getting 1 1/2 goals, while the Hurricanes would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 goals.
03-04-21	Jets v. Canadiens OVER 5.5		4-3	Win	100	3 h 55 m	Show
I think anything less than six goals is too short of a total for this matchup. The Jets rank sixth in the NHL in scoring, while Montreal is the eighth-highest scoring team in the league. The teams met twice during the last week of February and the Jets averaged four goals per game in the two games. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 13 meetings between the two clubs.
03-04-21	Stetson v. Bellarmine UNDER 144		73-70	Win	100	15 h 39 m	Show
Bellarmine heads into the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament having played just once since Feb. 13. The Knights have been held to 64 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Stetson has been involved in some high scoring games. But Bellarmine gives up fewer than 65 points a game and plays at a slow tempo. The teams met twice during the regular season. Bellarmine won both meetings with the combined scores finishing at 129 and 141 points, respectively.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-03-21	Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6		4-0	Loss	-101	9 h 1 m	Show
No surprise that there were eight goals scored when these teams met two days ago in San Jose with the Sharks winning, 6-2. The Over is 12-2-1 the last 15 times the Avalanche have played in San Jose. The Sharks have tallied 19 goals in their last four games. Colorado has permitted an average of 4 goals during their past four games. The Avalanche are without key defenseman Cale Makar. The Avalanche have some dynamic scorers led by Nathan MacKinnon. San Jose is last in the NHL on defense surrendering 3.8 goals a game.
03-03-21	Boston College v. Florida State UNDER 155.5		64-93	Loss	-110	13 h 41 m	Show
I think the oddsmaker was too influenced by Boston College's last game - a 94-90 home win against Notre Dame - when he set this total. The Eagles had averaged just 65.6 points during their previous three games. Florida State is a high-scoring team, but the Seminoles also can play tough defense especially at home where they've held three of their last four opponents to 61 or fewer points. This game figures to be a Florida State blowout. So it gives the Seminoles a chance to reduce the minutes of their starters providing extra time for their backup players.
03-03-21	San Diego State v. UNLV OVER 130.5		71-62	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. But what the Aztecs also have going is they are more up-tempo than perceived and are very effective burying 3-point shots in transition. San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting percentage and ranks 25th in the nation hitting 38 percent from beyond the arc. This has been instrumental in the Aztecs scoring at least 75 points in eight of their last 10 games. I see them doing that again here as UNLV ranks 317th in 3-point defense. The key to making this Over work, though, is UNLV contributing its share of points. The Rebels looked good during the second half against Fresno State in their last game this past Friday scoring 36 points. I think that carries over.
03-03-21	Thunder +8 v. Mavs		78-87	Loss	-105	18 h 20 m	Show
I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him. Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup. Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite.
03-03-21	Hawks v. Magic +4		115-112	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him. But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did. Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best. Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs. Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days. The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks.
03-03-21	Bulls +6 v. Pelicans		128-124	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home. Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite. The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans. The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense.
03-03-21	Providence v. St. John's -125		67-81	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
This is buy-low time on St. John's. The Red Storm lead the Big East in scoring and have a really good player in Julian Champagnie. But two losses in a row have caused the oddsmaker to get real down on the Red Storm. St. John's had their worst shooting game of the season two games ago in an 88-83 home loss to DePaul. The Red Storm then had to play revenge-minded Villanova on the road and were blown out, 81-58. No shame in losing to the Wildcats. I see St. John's bouncing back at home where it has covered six of the past seven times. The Red Storm beat Providence, 92-81, on the road on Feb. 6. That was the most points the Friars have allowed all season.
03-02-21	Nuggets v. Bucks UNDER 235		128-97	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
The Bucks are a very good team. But so far they haven't reached the elite level they were during the past two regular seasons. That's because their defense hasn't reached the No. 2 rating that their offense holds. There are signs, though, that Milwaukee's defense is coming around. The Bucks have held their last five opponents to an average of 107.4 points. Milwaukee just held the Clippers, the No. 6 scoring team in the league, 15 points under their season average in a 105-100 home win two days ago. Denver ranks 11th in the NBA defensively. The Nuggets have held their past four opponents to an average of 106.5 points. This is the Nuggets' third game in four days and second in two days. Denver is short four rotation players because of injuries and sickness. So I don't anticipate a fast tempo from the Nuggets.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-02-21	Canucks v. Jets -129		2-5	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
Jets minus $1.32 hosting Canucks The Jets are the superior team and I see them getting it done at home after being blanked, 4-0, in Winnipeg by the Canucks on Monday night. Winnipeg had won four in a row - two against the Canucks - until losing last night. The Jets seemed overconfident, perhaps because of that win streak, as they fell behind 3-0 in the first period. Winnipeg came back to fire 15 shots on goal in the third period, but the game had been decided by then. If the Jets come out with more urgency - which they should do in this rapid revenge spot - they should be fine. Vancouver is 3-8 in its last 11 road games. The Canucks were 1-9 at Winnipeg before last night's game. The Jets take to the road for 12 of their next 14 games following this matchup. So they can't afford not to pick up two points with a home win here. The Canucks return to Vancouver for five games following this one so their concentration might not be at peak efficiency.
03-01-21	Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6		2-6	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
I don't want to overreact to the Sharks' last game, a 7-6 home loss to the Blues this past Saturday. But it's hard not to. Only the Sharks could score six goals - and lose in regulation. San Jose has 13 goals in its last three games and only one victory to show for that. It's because the Sharks have the worst defense in the NHL. They have permitted 3 or more goals in 15 of their 18 games this season. Colorado is giving up an average of 3.2 goals during its last four games. So it's not difficult envisioning each team giving up three goals apiece. That actually would be an improvement for the Sharks since they give up 3.9 goals per game. The Over is 11-2-1 the last 14 times these teams have played each other in San Jose.
03-01-21	Hornets v. Blazers -6.5	Top	111-123	Win	100	20 h 32 m	Show
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
03-01-21	Mavs v. Magic +7		130-124	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I rank Luka Doncic among the five best players in the NBA. The guy is like a modern day version of Oscar Robertson, who yes I did see back in the day. A triple-double machine. But while Doncic is elite, the Mavericks aren't. Dallas is a .500 team with the record to prove that - 16-16. So I don't see the Mavericks getting away with laying this many road points in a flat spot for them. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive 115-98 Saturday road victory against the Nets, which snapped Brooklyn's eight-game win streak. Dallas' last three games have been against the Celtics, 76ers and Nets. This is the conclusion of its three-game road trip. So I don't see the Mavericks producing another "A" game given the circumstances and motivational letdown facing a much weaker opponent than they've recently met. Historically, Dallas hasn't been good in this role going 5-16 ATS the last 21 times when facing a below .500 opponent. Let's examine the Magic's past six games. They beat improved Knicks and Warriors teams along with the Pistons. But in their last three games, they lost a rematch to the Pistons and were buried by the Nets and Jazz. No shame in losing to Brooklyn and Utah. Orlando was outclassed in those matchups. The Magic won't be so outclassed here and they are in stop-the-pain mode. Orlando actually gives up fewer points per game than Dallas. It's lack of scoring that really hurts the Magic. The combination of having Evan Fournier back - he missed the first meeting between the two teams that Dallas won, 112-98, on Jan. 9 - and the Mavericks' 22nd-ranked defense should help Orlando put up a respectable scoring number to keep this game close.
03-01-21	Hampton +8.5 v. Radford		52-67	Loss	-105	13 h 0 m	Show
Hampton's season is on the line with this being a quarterfinal game in the Big South Conference Tournament. I think the Pirates will keep this close especially since Radford hasn't been playing well. Radford is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone victory during this time frame coming against Mt. Aloysius, a non-Division I opponent. Radford has averaged only 54.2 points during their past four losses. Hampton has a decent backcourt and the best low-post player on the court, Dajour Dickens. The 7-footer ranks second in the nation in blocked shots averaging 3.48 per game.
02-28-21	Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 223.5		133-84	Win	100	6 h 3 m	Show
Discounting their 119 points versus the Wizards, the Rockets are averaging 101 points in their last eight games. That would rank last in the league by a full three points if that is what their scoring average was for the entire season. Houston ranks 26th in shooting percentage and last in 3-point shooting percentage. Not only will Houston be without its leading scorer, injured Christian Wood, but its third-leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, also won't play today due to a quad injury. The Rockets have to rely on their defense to halt their 10-game losing streak. They are a slightly above average defensive team. I'm expecting defensive intensity from both teams. The Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers this past Thursday. They then proceeded to get blown out by the Clippers, 119-99, two days ago in the rematch. LA shot 55 percent from the floor. This is what Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins was quoted as saying about that: "Our defense was average. It wasn't at the level (it needed to be), so the learning lesson is you've got to raise your level and your defense has got to be consistent, night in and night out, especially when you beat a team like the way we did."
02-28-21	Red Wings v. Blackhawks -159		2-7	Win	100	11 h 46 m	Show
A few things about the Red Wings' 5-3 upset road win against the Blackhawks on Saturday: The Red Wings scored their first power play goal in 15 games. Not only do the Red Wings have the worst power play in the NHL, but they also are the worst at killing penalties. Chicago had just one power play opportunity. It was Detroit's second consecutive victory. The Red Wings have not won three in a row all season. The Blackhawks played their backup goalie, Malcolm Subban. He isn't very good. Chicago's starting goalie, Kevin Lankinen, is a rookie-of-the-year candidate. The Red Wings played without their most dynamic offensive player Dylan Larkin. He's out again today. Tyler Bertuzzi also remains sidelined for Detroit so the Red Wings are without two-thirds of their top line. Detroit ranks 30th in scoring averaging two goals a game. Even with that victory, Detroit is 12-45 in its last 57 road games. It was the first time in five tries this season the Red Wings defeated the Blackhawks. They are 2-8 in their past 10 games versus Chicago. Despite the loss, the Blackhawks have won eight of their last 11 games. So, yes, I want the Blackhawks going for me here.
02-28-21	Quinnipiac +3 v. Marist		67-76	Loss	-109	13 h 57 m	Show
I believe the wrong team is favored. Marist is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Red Foxes have played only two games this month. They average just 62.7 points a game. That puny average shrinks even more to 52.5 counting just their last four games. Quinnipiac has won and covered three in a row. The Bobcats have one of the stronger defenses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. They rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, while averaging nearly eight points more per game than Marist. The underdog has covered five of the last six in this series. That's easy to see why when the oddsmaker makes a wrong favorite like this.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Houston Baptist v. McNeese State OVER 157		58-85	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Only eight teams in the country produce more points per game than McNeese State, which averages 82.8. The Cowboys are going up against a terrible Houston Baptist defense that ranks 340th allowing 81.5 points. Houston Baptist turns the ball over nearly 18 times per game. So the Cowboys should get a number of easy baskets while also being able to dominate inside with KeyShawn Feazell. This also is the Cowboys' first home game since Jan. 20. So they certainly should be pumped - which means offense not defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of McNeese State's last 14 home contests. Houston Baptist should help out, too, with the Over. The Huskies have scored 80 points in two of their past three games. McNeese State is well below average defensively ranking 242nd giving up nearly 73 points per game.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-27-21	Pacers -116 v. Knicks		107-110	Loss	-116	7 h 20 m	Show
The Pacers and Knicks are each one game below .500. I love what Tom Thibodeau has done with the Knicks bringing back defense and respect. But I also like Indiana's first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren. The Pacers have the better roster. They've struggled lately, though, because of a difficult schedule. Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games. However, seven of those defeats occurred to the Celtics, Bulls in overtime, Nets, Jazz, Pelicans, Bucks and 76ers. New York, by contrast, has had it much easier. In their last six games, the Knicks have played home games versus the Kings, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Rockets. Their lone road contest during this span was against the Magic. So record-wise it might not seem like a step up game for the Knicks. But in my opinion it is and the price is right to back the superior team.
02-27-21	Wolves +4 v. Wizards		112-128	Loss	-103	7 h 37 m	Show
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows. Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year. It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. But all of this is on the surface. The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot. The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling. Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation. The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell.
02-27-21	Tennessee State v. Eastern Kentucky OVER 150.5	Top	84-89	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Extremely fast-paced. Tremendous scoring. Bad defense. All of that fits Eastern Kentucky and those factors are why the Colonels have gone Over in 13 of their last 16 games. I see another Over in this matchup as Tennessee State has gone Over in its last six games. Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky played each other two weeks ago and the total flew Over with the Colonels winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points. The Tigers shot just 39 percent from the floor in that game, too. The Tigers have scored 73 or more points in three of their last four games. Eastern Kentucky surrenders 73.8 points per game, which ranks 265th. So Tennessee State should be good for at least 73 points this time around, too. Eastern Kentucky is the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels have scored 81 or more points in five of their past six games. Tennessee State ranks 256th defensively.
02-27-21	Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5		82-84	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests.
02-27-21	SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5		69-63	Loss	-118	11 h 56 m	Show
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory.
02-27-21	Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5		86-76	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games.
02-27-21	Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State		91-97	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois.
02-26-21	Hawks v. Thunder +5.5	Top	109-118	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
02-26-21	New Mexico State v. Tarleton St OVER 131		78-51	Loss	-110	15 h 17 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have had a hard time putting a total on this matchup. Tarlton has played a lot of non-division schools so its season numbers are skewed. Tarlton, for instance, held some school named SW Advetist to 26 points. Tarlton averages more than 76 points a game and hits more than 39 percent of its 3-point shots. New Mexico State has produced at least 65 points in each of its last six games.
02-26-21	UAB v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 145		64-57	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham has the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 59.1 points a game. That's bad news for San Antonio, who rely heavily on their backcourt for scoring. The Under is 6-1-1 in UAB's last eight road games. The Blazers, though, have suspect scoring. UAB's statistics are skewed by their last game when it scored 117 points against Rust College. In their previous four games, the Blazers couldn't break 64 points. San Antonio flashed defensive potential three games ago holding Florida International to 47 points.
02-26-21	Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3		58-43	Loss	-106	7 h 40 m	Show
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games.
02-26-21	Bowling Green +4 v. Akron		83-71	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games.
02-26-21	Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver UNDER 149		80-76	Loss	-110	13 h 4 m	Show
Omaha-Nebraska is averaging just 60 points in its last four games. Denver has misleading statistics.The Pioneers have played two overtime games this month with both teams scoring in the 80's during each matchup. If you count regulation only, Denver hasn't broken the 70-point barrier in six of its last eight games.
02-25-21	Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5	Top	67-59	Loss	-107	19 h 56 m	Show
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode.
02-25-21	Canadiens -120 v. Jets		3-6	Loss	-120	7 h 51 m	Show
This will be Montreal's first game under new coach Dominique Ducharme after Claude Julien was fired after the Canadiens lost a second straight one-goal game to the Senators two days ago. I'm expecting a lot of energy from the Canadiens to mark the event. Winnipeg last played at home back on Feb. 13. The Jets haven't scored more than three goals in regulation during nine of their last 10 games. Montreal averages 3.4 goals a game, seventh-best in the league. The Canadiens rank No. 1 in shots on goal.
02-25-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		92-129	Loss	-110	6 h 38 m	Show
The Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference winners of seven in a row. But I don't think they are that good minus Kevin Durant to keep getting away with laying inflated numbers. Brooklyn didn't play well in its last game two days, but was fortunate to have played the Kings, losers of eight consecutive games. Orlando should provide more of an obstacle for Brooklyn. The Magic have been playing well lately. They had won three in a row beating the Warriors, much improved Knicks and Pistons before losing to Detroit in a rematch during their last game this past Tuesday. Perhaps the Magic were looking ahead to this matchup. Orlando gives up seven fewer points per game than Brooklyn, which has allowed at least 117 points in four of its past six games. The Magic have improved since Evan Fournier returned to the lineup after being injured. He gives Orlando a perimeter threat to go with rugged inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Brooklyn is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as a home favorite. The Magic have covered in each of their last four visits to Brooklyn. They also have covered six of the last seven in the series.
02-25-21	Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -122		2-0	Loss	-122	6 h 54 m	Show
I want the Blue Jackets going for me in this short revenge spot. Columbus came back from a late 5-3 deficit against Chicago two days ago, but lost 6-5 in a shootout. It was just the Blackhawks' third win in 14 tries as a road 'dog. The Blue Jackets' defense should be improved with Michael Del Zotto back in the lineup after missing Tuesday's game with an injury. The Blackhawks are going with backup Malcolm Subban in goal. That's another plus for Columbus.
02-25-21	Devils -107 v. Sabres		4-3	Win	100	6 h 49 m	Show
Twice within the last six days Buffalo defeated New Jersey on the road. Yet the Devils are favored at Buffalo in this one. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker regards the Devils in higher esteem than the Sabres. New Jersey has quick double revenge and catches the Sabres playing their first game in Buffalo since Feb. 16. The Sabres are 0-3 in their last three home games, outscored by seven goals during these losses. They also are 0-5 the past five times as a home 'dog.
02-25-21	Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Sacred Heart		82-69	Win	100	14 h 15 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court.
02-25-21	St Francis NY v. Merrimack UNDER 139		84-71	Loss	-110	13 h 26 m	Show
Merrimack just held Bryant, the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, to 76 points in its last game. That was nearly 10 points under Bryant's season average. If you discount that game, though, Merrimack is surrendering just 54.8 points per game during their past five contests. St. Francis of Brooklyn has gone Under in 10 of its last 14 road games. I see the Terriers struggling offensively here, too, dealing with the Warriors' zone defense and slow tempo. Merrimack ranks in the bottom-20 in offensive efficiency. The Warriors also are among the worst 20 teams in free throw percentage. They average fewer than 66 points a game. The Under has cashed in 20 of Merrimack's past 27 games. There were not more than 111 combined points scored in either of the team's two meetings last season.
02-24-21	Xavier v. Providence +1.5		68-83	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games.
02-24-21	Spurs v. Thunder +1		99-102	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon.
02-24-21	Wolves +4 v. Bulls		126-133	Loss	-106	8 h 55 m	Show
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored.
02-24-21	McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana	Top	96-91	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.
02-24-21	Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State OVER 154.5		68-83	Loss	-109	15 h 35 m	Show
The teams met on Jan. 20 and Nicholls State won, 92-83, for a total of 175 points scored. I don't see less scoring happening in the rematch here. Houston Baptist is a bottom-10 defense giving up 81.4 points a game. The Huskies have been even worse lately surrendering 83 points during their last three games. Nicholls State has scored at least 80 points in four of its past seven games. The Colonels should be able to get a number of easy inside baskets and layups off turnovers.
02-24-21	Warriors v. Pacers -120		111-107	Loss	-120	13 h 24 m	Show
Stephen Curry is having a monster season. He and his Warriors, though, can not overcome a huge fatigue factor while taking on a rested home Indiana club that caused the Warriors fits inside when the teams met last month. The Pacers won that game, 104-95, getting a combined 40 points and 26 rebounds from big men Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. This time around the Pacers draw the Warriors playing their fourth road matchup in six days and second in two nights after getting past the Knicks, 114-106, last night. The Warriors have covered just 23 percent of the time the past 23 times when playing without rest. Indiana hasn't played in a week. The Pacers used that time to rest and get in additional practice. Their offense has been humming averaging 120.5 points the past four games. Indiana has won three of its last four.
02-23-21	Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State	Top	57-62	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
02-23-21	St. John's v. Villanova UNDER 154		58-81	Win	100	14 h 5 m	Show
St. John's leads the Big East Conference in forcing turnovers at 17 per game. The Red Storm forced Villanova into a season-high 17 turnovers when they beat the Wildcats, 70-59, three weeks ago. The Red Storm was extremely physical in that game. I don't see them changing their defensive strategy this time around after it worked so well last time against the Wildcats. Villanova is coming off one of its best defensive games of the season setting new lows for defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage in a 68-60 victory against Connecticut this past Saturday. The Wildcats have allowed more than 74 points in regulation just once in 17 games this season.
02-23-21	Celtics -117 v. Mavs		107-110	Loss	-117	9 h 10 m	Show
The Celtics are coming off maybe their most frustrating loss of the season, blowing a 24-point second half lead in a 120-115 overtime loss to the Pelicans this past Sunday. Boston is far from in peak form. The Celtics desperately miss underrated injured guard Marcus Smart. But the Celtics have the coaching with Brad Stevens and firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker to bounce back in what shapes up as a character test for them. Boston usually is good in this role covering seven of the past nine times following a defeat. Dallas is in action for only the second time since Feb. 14. The Mavericks defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, at home last night. The Celtics are a step up for Dallas. The Mavericks' last eight games have been against mediocre-to-bad teams. The last time Dallas played a strong team was the Suns back on Feb. 1. The Mavericks are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS versus above average teams this season. They also are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
02-23-21	Kings +6.5 v. Nets		118-127	Loss	-108	9 h 13 m	Show
Fat and happy the Nets return to Brooklyn having completed an impressive road sweep. They won five games in nine days with the last coming this past Sunday against the Clippers in a tight and dramatic, 112-108, win. One of the Nets' victories during this road trip was 136-125 against the Kings eight days ago. This is Brooklyn's first home game in two weeks. Why should the Nets care about the Kings, who have lost seven in a row and who they just dismantled? They shouldn't and probably won't. It's a monster letdown spot for the Nets. The Kings have been dangerous in one role - road underdog. They are 23-9 ATS the last 32 times in that situation. Brooklyn also has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has been favored at home.