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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-14-21	Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9		7-5	Loss	-110	14 h 51 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker and marketplace is reading too much into Thursday's Field of Dreams game played in Iowa when the White Sox out-slugged the Yankees, 9-8. The teams are in Chicago now following an off-day, which allowed the bullpens to get rested up. The wind is blowing in to right at 7 mph and Laz Diaz, a solid Under umpire for the past six years, is slated to be behind the plate. Oh, yes, the pitching matchup is Jameson Taillon versus Dylan Cease. Taillon has been one of the major's hottest pitchers since July not allowing more than two earned runs during any of his past seven starts. He has a 1.69 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in two career starts. Cease is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. He's been at his best when pitching at home with a 5-2 mark and 2.20 ERA. Only two pitchers in the American League have more strikeouts than Cease, who has whiffed 159 batters.
08-14-21	Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8.5		2-1	Win	100	13 h 49 m	Show
Walker Buehler is the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom sidelined. Buehler is 12-2 with a 2.13 ERA. He's in top-notch form, too, with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts. Buehler does throw in a pitcher's park, but he's also 5-0 on the road with a 2.16 ERA. Citi Field is a pitcher's park, too. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has proven capable when healthy. He pitched six days ago in Philadelphia, a tough pitcher's park, and gave up three earned runs in six innings on four hits and one walk. Walker is a very respectable 4-2 at Citi Field this season with a 3.25 ERA. Both pitchers will be aided by the wind blowing in to right at 7 mph and by both teams missing key offensive stars. Francisco Lindor remains out for the Mets, while the Dodgers are minus Mookie Betts and likely won't have Justin Turner back in the starting lineup yet.
08-14-21	Dolphins v. Bears OVER 34	Top	13-20	Loss	-115	389 h 33 m	Show
Given that there are only three preseason games now and the depth of each team's quarterback rotation, I find this total short at this number. The Dolphins' top two quarterbacks are Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett, who is one of the better backups in the league. Miami is anxious to open its attack more and preseason is the right time to work on that. The Bears go three-deep at QB with Andy Dalton, Justin Fields and Nick Foles. This is one of the best QB threesomes in the league. Dalton and Foles are veterans who know how to pick apart backup defenses, while Fields is an exciting talent.
08-13-21	Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5	Top	2-3	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Seattle doesn't get much respect. That's obvious seeing this high of a road price on the Blue Jays. But the Marines are 35-24 at home this season. They rarely are out of games. If given plus 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 12-1 (92 percent) in its last 13 games. Seattle starter Chris Flexen is 6-4 at home with a 2.67 ERA compared to a 5.44 road ERA. He's been tough in Seattle all season. The Blue Jays aren't as fierce in pitcher's parks such as Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Toronto's offensive numbers are down across the board when comparing its home/road hitting statistics, including a drop of nearly 20 points in batting average. The Blue Jays have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. A major reason for Toronto being such a prohibitive favorite is starter Robbie Ray. He's 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Ray has always been a high strikeout pitcher, but he's proven much more consistent this season with his command and control. He does have a 3.91 lifetime ERA against the Mariners in four career starts. But this isn't a fade on Ray. It's a play on the feisty Mariners.
08-13-21	Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 40	Top	16-19	Win	100	55 h 46 m	Show
Currently this is the highest total of the Week 1 preseason slate. Yes, these are explosive offenses, but the key pieces aren't going to be seeing much, if any, action. Certainly Dallas isn't risking Dak Prescott for this meaningless exhibition game. The Cowboys managed just three points in last week's Hall of Fame Game against the Steelers. Dallas' backup quarterbacks of Cooper Rush, Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci were a combined 24-for-43 for just 238 yards and an interception. All three of those QB's stink. I don't expect much from them this time around either. Dallas is traveling for the second straight week and its coach, Mike McCarthy, has a history of being extremely vanilla during preseason not wanting to show anything before the real season starts. As for the Cardinals, they are unlikely to give much - if any - playing time to Kyler Murray. Arizona's backup QB's are perennial game-manager Colt McCoy and former South Dakota QB Chris Streveler. The Cowboys went heavy on defense in the draft headed by linebacker Micah Parsons, who looked great against the Steelers. These defensive rookies will be looking to impress against a second and third-string Cardinals offense with jobs on the line.
08-13-21	Astros -135 v. Angels		4-1	Win	100	12 h 30 m	Show
Look for Zach Greinke to tame an Angels team that has scored 4 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. The Angels continue to be without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Greinke has pitched his best ball away from Houston. He's 5-0 on the road with a 2.67 ERA. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval is slated to go for Anaheim. He is 1-4 with a 3.50 home ERA. Sandoval has made four career appearances versus the Astros, including three starts, and is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA. Houston leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .278. The Astros also have the fourth-highest slugging percentage against southpaws in the majors. Houston has scored the most runs per game of any team in baseball.
08-13-21	Toronto v. Winnipeg -6.5		7-20	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
Winnipeg is 12-1 in its last 13 games at IG Field. The Blue Bombers also are 9-2 ATS the past 11 times as a home favorite after opening the season with a 19-6 home victory against Hamilton. Look for the defending champion Blue Bombers to continue their ATS home chalk dominance. Toronto stunned Calgary opening week in its, 23-20, road win six days ago. The Argonauts rallied after trailing by eight points in the final quarter. I don't see them pulling off a second straight road upset win, especially traveling on a short week. The last time Toronto opened 2-0 was 2015. The Blue Bombers have covered seven of the last eight in this series. Winnipeg has an inexperienced secondary, but its front seven can compensate as they should control the line of scrimmage. I'm not sold on Toronto QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson.
08-13-21	Cubs v. Marlins -114		10-14	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
Miami pitcher Jesus Luzardo has a high ceiling. He's been disappointing early in his big league career with a 3-5 record and 7.36 ERA. But the Cubs have become an auto-fade in this type of price range. Luzardo could be in line now for a big game against a decimated Cubs lineup that no longer has the traded Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baer and also is minus injured players Wilson Contreras, Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward. The Cubs are in free-fall, losing 14 of their last 16, including the past eight. They've lost their last two games by a combined margin of 27-4. Adbert Alzolay is slated to start for Chicago. The Cubs are 1-9 in his last 10 starts. Alzolay deserves this record with a 5.90 ERA in his last 10 starts. Miami owns the superior bullpen now that the Cubs jettisoned closer Craig Kimbrel. The Marlins were idle Thursday after upsetting the Padres, 7-0, two days ago. So their bullpen is rested. The Cubs, by contrast, are playing for the fifth time in four days.
08-12-21	Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 9		3-6	Push	0	16 h 59 m	Show
The Blue Jays aren't as dangerous offensively on the road. Toronto's home batting average is .275. The Blue Jays' home slugging percentage is .490 with a .339 on-base percentage. These numbers on the road shrink to a .258 batting average, .430 slugging percentage and .318 on-base percentage. The Blue Jays go into a pitcher's ballpark here while facing one of the better pitchers in the American League, Shohei Ohtani, who is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Ohtani's ERA dips to 1.79 when pitching at home where he's 4-0. Jose Berrios will be making his third start for Toronto. He's given up one earned run in his two Blue Jays starts spanning 12 innings. He has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio for Toronto. The Angels haven't scored more than 4 runs in 11 of their last 14 games. They remain without superstar Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. So I'm expecting a very good pitcher's duel.
08-12-21	Washington Football Team v. Patriots OVER 33	Top	13-22	Win	100	394 h 8 m	Show
New this year is having only three weeks of preseason. That's not much game time to find out about backups. So the offenses shouldn't be so vanilla even during Week 1 of preseason. Oddsmakers traditionally set a low total for the first full week of preseason. That's the case in this matchup and I believe it's a mistake. Ryan Fitzpatrick entered Washington's camp as the nominal starter. But Ron Rivera said nothing is guaranteed. He'll want to take a good look at Taylor Heinicke, who was last seen throwing for 306 yards while accounting for two touchdowns in a 31-23 playoff loss to the Buccaneers. Kyle Allen isn't a bad third-string QB, but he may not be 100 percent yet recovering from a broken ankle suffered last season. The Patriots have a strong quarterback rotation with Cam Newton, Mac Jones and veteran Brian Hoyer. I doubt Newton plays, but Bill Belichick didn't invest a first-round pick on Jones to watch him hand off. Hoyer could be very effective matched up against second, third and fourth-string defenders. New England has averaged 28.7 points during its first preseason game the past four times.
08-12-21	Steelers +1.5 v. Eagles		24-16	Win	100	53 h 4 m	Show
Coaching history and backup quarterbacks are two keys in accessing preseason football. We know Mike Tomlin likes to win these exhibition games. The Steelers have won 63 percent of their preseason games under Tomlin, including defeating the Cowboys, 16-3, in the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday. Having already played a game is a plus, too, for the Steelers here. Pittsburgh won't be so vanilla with its offense as it was against the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is featuring rookie running back Najee Harris, who looked good against Dallas, and more motion in Pittsburgh's attack. I highly doubt Ben Roethlisberger sees any action. I doubt, too, the Eagles will put Jalen Hurts on the field. The Steelers have three decent backup quarterbacks as far as preseason goes with Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. Pittsburgh's No. 2 job is open so there should be good competition between these three. The Eagles have a new head coach, Nick Sirianni, and a new coaching staff. Their backup QB's are veteran Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. Flacco has no incentive. He's a veteran with a monster contract. Mullens is coming off a season-ending elbow injury he suffered last year with the 49ers. Mullens hasn't looked good in camp, by various reports. Philadelphia is inexperienced at wide receiver. The ones that are healthy haven't impressed. The Eagles got a bad break when first round pick DVonta Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner, suffered a knee injury. He may have to miss the entire preseason. Look for Flacco just to game manage things before turning it over to Mullens. So I give a strong check mark to the Steelers' defense. The Eagles also could find themselves constantly starting in poor field position if Pittsburgh rookie punter Pressley Harvin III performs as well as he did against the Cowboys. Harvin dropped one punt on the Dallas 1. Another punt went out of bounds at the Dallas 11 and another Harvin punt was fumbled by the Cowboys. These weren't fluke occurrences. I considered Harvin to be the best punter in the draft.
08-12-21	Reds +137 v. Braves		12-3	Win	137	13 h 44 m	Show
Atlanta is playing well. But I see too much value on the underdog Reds here. Cincinnati has a better record than the Braves and has the hottest power hitter in the majors. Yes, Joey Votto has hit the most homers and driven in the most runs since the All-Star break. Calls of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Rookies Vladimir Gutierrez versus Kyle Muller compose the pitching matchup. I'll side with Gutierrez against the southpaw Muller. Gutierrez is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA during his last three starts. He's struggled at hitter-friendly Great American Park, but is 5-1 with a 3.11 ERA on the road. Muller is the opposite of Gutierrez in that he has pitched worse at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA. The Reds rank fourth in the National League in slugging percentage against lefties.
08-12-21	Tigers v. Orioles UNDER 10.5		6-4	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
I've played the Tigers each of the first two games of this series. So far so good as Detroit won both games. However, with John Means starting for Baltimore here I see a big red stop sign. There is a way to stay involved in this series, though: The total. It's priced too high. Means is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He would get far more attention if he pitched for a better team. The wild card besides both bullpens is Tigers rookie starter Matt Manning. He has a very high ceiling, but has been inconsistent in compiling a 2-5 record and 6.33 ERA. I believe Manning can handle a cold-hitting Orioles squad that is averaging just 3.1 runs in their last six games. Manning's day time ERA is a more respectable 4.32. Both teams are missing a key hitter, too. Akil Baddoo and Ryan Mountcastle are each on the concussion list. Note, too, this is a daytime get-away game. So there could be reserves playing.
08-12-21	Cardinals -119 v. Pirates		7-6	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
I hold no illusions about Wade LeBlanc. He's a journeyman pure and simple. But with LeBlanc on the mound for the Cardinals, this a chance to fade the Pirates at a reasonable price. The Pirates may be the worst team in baseball righ tnow. They have dropped seven in a row, scoring only six runs during their last five games. They are 18-38 during their past 56 games. As far as the pitching matchup, I still would take LeBlanc over JT Brubaker, who is 4-11 with a 4.95 ERA. Brubaker has lost seven straight decisions and holds an 0-3 lifetime record against St. Louis with a 5.30 ERA in four appearances, including three starts.
08-11-21	Tigers -114 v. Orioles	Top	5-2	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses. I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.
08-11-21	Tigers v. Orioles OVER 10		5-2	Loss	-111	13 h 19 m	Show
What happens when you have a bad starting rotation coupled with a horrendous bullpen? Big trouble. That's the Orioles, who rank last in ERA, quality starts and WHIP. Baltimore is giving up an average of 10.8 runs in its last five games. The Tigers have a below par bullpen, too. They're starting southpawTarik Skubal, who has a 4.32 ERA and has surrendered 25 homers. Detroit, though, should do its share of damage facing Matt Harvey, who left his last start a week ago after tweaking his knee. He had given up two runs in four innings against the Yankees in that game. That performance ended a string of three superb starts for Harvey, which was highly usual considering he hasn't been good for six years. High humidity and the wind blowing out left at 7-10 mph is another plus for the Over.
08-11-21	Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10		8-2	Push	0	11 h 4 m	Show
I believe this game is priced more than one run too high. David Price is rounding into shape and Kyle Gibson has been tough all season with a 2.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Both teams have injuries to key hitters, too. The Dodgers aren't expected to have Mookie Betts (hip) and Justin Turner (groin). The Phillies are minus Rhys Hoskins and could still be missing Andrew McCutchen.
08-10-21	Tigers +100 v. Orioles	Top	9-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line. Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders. The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter. Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA.
08-09-21	Yankees v. Royals UNDER 10	Top	8-6	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
Jameson Taillon has been sailing under-the-radar. He's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball having surrendered just six runs in his last six starts spanning 37 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 lifetime against the Royals in two career starts with a 0.68 ERA and a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Royals rank 25th in runs and 27th in homers. Kansas City starter Carlos Hernandez also has been hot. His last two starts have both come against the White Sox, who have scored the sixth-most runs per game in the majors. Hernandez held the White Sox to one run on six hits in 11 innings during these starts with 10 strikeouts. The Yankees just were shut out, 2-0, by the Mariners on Sunday. New York is minus Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez. Those two players have hit 17 homers apiece this season. The Under is 12-2 in the Yankees' last 14 road contests, while the Under is 8-1-2 during the Royals' last 11 games as a home 'dog.
08-08-21	Rangers +1.5 v. A's		3-6	Loss	-100	8 h 6 m	Show
I understand the Rangers, losers of 13 straight road games, are tough to back. But there's value to them here being on the road with the extra at bat getting 1 1/2 runs against Oakland, which is just 6-6 in its last 12 games. I'm not a fan of Rangers starter Jordan Lyles, but he does eat up innings. He's reached at least the sixth inning in six of his last eight starts. He's surrendered two or fewer runs during five of those past eight starts. So he's not a bottom tier pitcher. Oakland ranks 24th in batting at .234 and that includes the A's 16-hit outburst against Texas on Saturday. The A's are minus suspended outfielder Ramon Laureano. Teams often rest some starters on Sunday so Lyles may have a few rest stops in Oakland's batting order. Oakland starter James Kaprielian had been pitching well until his last start. That came on July 27 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Kaprielian gave up six earned runs to the Padres in just 4 1/3 innings. He went on the injured list the next day with a shoulder injury. This is his first start since then.
08-08-21	Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
A discussion of National League Cy Young Award candidates should include Zach Wheeler. He's replaced Aaron Nola as the top pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wheeler is 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA. He leads the National League with 170 strikeouts. Wheeler has been at his best in day action going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA. He's facing a slumping Mets team that is averaging only 2.8 runs during their last 17 games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has proven talented when healthy, which he is now. He's 7-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He catches a Phillies lineup that could be minus three of their infielders as Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura are all nursing injuries. Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in to left at 8 mph.
08-07-21	Angels v. Dodgers OVER 8.5		3-5	Loss	-113	16 h 46 m	Show
I don't give Jaime Barria much of a chance against the Dodgers. This is just Barria's third start of the season. The Dodgers have scored the third-most runs per game in the majors. Their lineup is going to get better, too, with Trea Turner slated to make his first start as a Dodger today at second base. Julio Urias goes for the Dodgers. He's a good pitcher, but his 13-3 record makes him a bit overrated. He's faced six weak teams during his past 10 starts. The Angels scored five runs off Urias when they met on May 7. The Angels' lineup has received a boost with hotshot rookie Jo Adell on board and Jared Walsh having a chance to play today after being out with a right intercostal strain. The Over is 26-10-3 during the Angels' last 39 interleague games.
08-07-21	Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5		2-6	Win	100	16 h 11 m	Show
This is one of those rare and near-impossible instances of the Diamondbacks actually being fat and happy. Arizona still is gloating about coming from five runs down to defeat the Padres, 8-5, on the road Friday night. That victory, though, was against rookie Ryan Weathers. Now the Diamondbacks face ace Yu Darvish and an angry Padres bunch. Darvish has a 3.16 ERA at Petco Park this season. I expect Darvish to pitch much better than Weathers did and for San Diego to destroy Diamondbacks starter Taylor Widener, who in his last three starts spanning 12 2/3 innings has given up a staggering 15 earned runs on 18 hits, nine walks and four homers. Each of the Padres' last five victories have been by 3 runs or more.
08-07-21	Marlins v. Rockies -155	Top	4-7	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts. Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season. Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that. The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.
08-06-21	Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9	Top	2-4	Win	100	15 h 30 m	Show
Considering their huge payroll and name hitters in their lineup, it's shocking the Mets rank 29th in runs. New York hasn't scored more than 5 runs during its last 15 games. So I'm not expecting a big offensive showing from the Mets against Kyle Gibson and a Phillies bullpen that improved their depth at the trade deadline. Gibson is enjoying a long-awaited breakthrough season with a 2.86 ERA. His ERA with the Phillies is 2.70. The Mets are going with Marcus Stroman, who is the best active pitcher on their staff with Jacob deGrom on IL. Stroman has been solid all season with a 2.80 ERA. He has a 2.50 career ERA versus the Phillies. Stroman has a 2.19 ERA when pitching in night games this season. Friday Free Bonus Play Red Sox plus $1.28 at Blue Jays The Red Sox didn't play well against the Tigers on Thursday and they were smacked, 8-1. The Red Sox are a high quality team in bounce back mode. They are 31-24 on the road. That loss to the Tigers should wake up the Red Sox. So I'm attracted to taking a 'dog price on them. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus rookie Alek Manoah. I really like Manoah, who has struck out 56 batters in 47 1/3 innings. He can be inconsistent, like most young pitchers, but this isn't a play against him. Rather it's a value play on the Red Sox. Boston is averaging just 2.5 runs in its last nine games. The Red Sox are putting on baserunners, though. They're just not capitalizing as during their last nine games they've knocked in only nine of 75 runners in scoring position, a meager 12 percent. That percentage is due to rise. Eovaldi has been steady with a 9-6 mark and 3.71 ERA in 21 starts this year. He holds a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight career appearances against Toronto. Eovaldi faced the Blue Jays on June 14 and held them scoreless during his 6 2/3 innings.
08-05-21	Royals v. White Sox -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-106	14 h 54 m	Show
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.
08-05-21	Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5		0-3	Loss	-105	13 h 54 m	Show
The Blue Jays could have the best offense in baseball ranking in the top three in most of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. George Springer has gotten hot, too, making Toronto's lineup even more fierce. Triston McKenzie is going to have problems dealing with this so early in his career. McKenzie has a high ceiling, but is going through growing pains with a 1-4 record and 6.11 ERA. I liked Toronto starter Ross Stripling more when he was in the National League. He's 4-6 with a 4.75 ERA. The Indians have an average offense, but it has picked up with the return to health of several players. I see the Indians holding up their bargain in making this total go Over.
08-05-21	Phillies -139 v. Nationals		7-6	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
The Phillies have won four in a row. They are chasing the Mets to win the NL East Division. The Nationals are in rebuild after dealing Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. Now throw in a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Joe Ross and this is more than a fair price to lay with Philadelphia. Nola is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in day games this season. Ross is 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA at home this year.
08-04-21	Braves -115 v. Cardinals	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 49 m	Show
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ. Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts. Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.
08-04-21	Mets v. Marlins +152		5-3	Loss	-100	12 h 17 m	Show
The Mets seem to be pressing clinging to a narrow lead in the NL East Division having lost three in a row and 12 of their last 20 games. This is a value play as the Mets shouldn't be laying this high of a road number unless Jacob deGrom is pitching and he's on the injured list. Instead Carlos Carrasco gets the start. He's a good pitcher, but he's making the adjustment to the National League and has pitched only four innings all season having been out all this time with a hamstring injury. Carrasco is working his way into shape. The Marlins are going with Zach Thompson, a good-looking rookie who has a 2.33 ERA in eight starts. Miami is playing loose with nothing to lose. The Mets are playing tight and it's too early for them to count on a rusty Carrasco.
08-04-21	Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5		6-8	Win	100	13 h 27 m	Show
Now that Matt Harvey has thrown three straight strong games, the title for worst starting pitcher in the American League can now maybe be bestowed upon J.C. Mejia. The Cleveland rookie is 1-6 with a 7.60 ERA. I'm surprised Mejia still is in Cleveland's rotation after going 0-4 in five July starts with a 10.55 ERA. He faces a powerful Blue Jays squad that ranks either first, second or third in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Toronto is averaging 6.1 runs in its last six games. The Blue Jays are starting Steven Matz, who has a 5.74 ERA when pitching at night. The scheduled home plate umpire is David Rackley, who has an Over bias with an 83-59 (58 percent) above the total mark since 2016.
08-04-21	Twins v. Reds -1.5		5-6	Loss	-107	9 h 35 m	Show
The Twins are a step above the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Pirates, Rangers and Orioles. But only a slight step. Minnesota is especially bad on the road, losers of 12 of its past 17 away contests. The Twins, however, managed to pull off a ninth-inning rally to beat the Reds, 7-5, on Tuesday. I don't see a repeat of that happening with a pitching matchup of lefty Charlie Barnes versus Luis Castillo. Barnes has pitched less than five innings in the big leagues. He's certainly not experienced throwing at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, one of the top hitter's stadiums in the majors. The Reds are 12-8 versus lefties this season. Castillo has turned his season completely around. He was terrible at the start of the season. But since late May, he hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any game. He's held opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his last 12 starts. Castillo has struck out 31 in his last four starts spanning 24 1/3 innings.
08-03-21	Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5	Top	1-3	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
Don't get fooled by the 19 runs scored in the Giants' 11-8 extra inning win against the Diamondbacks on Monday. I'm expecting a much different type of score in this game. Projected starters Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner are both past their prime. Agreed. But both are in excellent form. Cueto has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the Dodgers in his last start this past Thursday holding LA scoreless for 5 2/3 innings on four hits. Arizona is well below average offensively. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors. The Giants were able to rest their two best relievers, Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers, in their Monday victory. Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He should be pumped going against his former team.
08-03-21	Cubs v. Rockies UNDER 11.5		6-13	Loss	-109	15 h 20 m	Show
At first glance this high total may seem right with the game being played at Coors Field and a pitching matchup of Zach Davies versus Kyle Freeland. But these two pitchers both know how to effectively pitch in Colorado. Davies is 4-2 with a 3,38 career mark against the Rockies in seven starts. This will be his fourth start at Coors Field where he has a 2.30 ERA. Freeland has proven himself reliable at Coors Field and he's in outstanding form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. These starts came twice against the Dodgers and once versus the Padres. Freeland went 19 innings during this span, compiling a 14-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Freeland, a lefty, won't have to deal with the departed Javier Baez and Kris Bryant either. The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing in at 8 mph.
08-03-21	Royals v. White Sox -1.5		1-7	Win	100	15 h 10 m	Show
The White Sox are one of the top teams thanks to a 37-18 home record. The Royals are out of contention because of a 17-34 road mark. The White Sox also are a dominating 19-10 against lefty starters. So I have no qualms laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a pitching matchup of southpaw Kris Bubic versus Dylan Cease. Bubic, like his teammates, has performed much better at home. He's 1-4 on the road with a 7.16 away ERA. The White Sox won't lack motivation against Bubic. They just faced him five days ago in Kansas City and the Royals won, 3-2. Bubic held the White Sox to two runs in six innings. I don't see him pitching that well again against Chicago in this quick turnaround spot and being on the road this time. Only five teams in the majors have a higher on-base percentage against lefties than the White Sox. Cease is sixth in the American League in strikeouts. He has a 1.65 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings against Kansas City this year. He has a lifetime 3.11 ERA against the Royals in seven career starts.
08-02-21	Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	8-2	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
I like the Rays, but I don't like them when Michael Wacha pitches. I like the Mariners when Chris Flexen pitches at home. Flexen is on the road. The combination of Flexen on the road versus Wacha helps put me on the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last nine games. The addition of power-hitting Nelson Cruz has made Tampa Bay more dangerous. The Rays are averaging 8.2 runs in their last four games. Flexen isn't the same away from pitcher-friendly Seattle. He has a 5.92 road ERA compared to a 2.67 home ERA. Wacha has a 4.79 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's a below average starter with a bad history against the Mariners - 8.25 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 12 previous innings against them. The Over has cashed the past five times the teams have played in Tropicana Field.
08-01-21	Twins v. Cardinals -133		3-7	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
The AL Central is a weak division and the Twins are the weakest team in that division. Minnesota has been bad and disappointing all season. Now the Twins are worse given their rebuilding moves at the trade deadline. Team morale had to suffer when team ace Jose Berrios was dealt. I've been looking to fade the Twins. I successfully did in Friday's game when Griffin Jax took Berrios' spot. I passed on Saturday's matchup because I didn't trust Cardinals starter Jake Woodford. The Twins bashed Woodford in winning, 8-1. But now the Cardinals are back on safe ground pitching Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old still is solid with a 3.51 ERA. Wainwright has a 2.70 ERA at home this season. His last start was five days ago on the road against the Indians. Wainwright beat the Indians, holding them to two runs in seven innings giving up four hits, walking two and striking out eight. Twins starter Michael Pineda has a 4.42 road ERA. He's backed by a bad bullpen. The Twins are 20-31 on the road.
08-01-21	Brewers +137 v. Braves	Top	2-1	Win	137	10 h 34 m	Show
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record. The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19. There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here. The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen. The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension. The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.
08-01-21	Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5		5-6	Loss	-105	6 h 53 m	Show
Neither Adbert Alzolay nor Erick Fedde has been pitching well. But I still don't see these teams combining for nine runs here after each team was gutted at the trade deadline. Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are all gone from the Cubs. The Nationals no longer have Trea Turner. It's rebuild time for both teams and many reserves usually play on Sunday so neither starting pitcher should be looking at a difficult lineup. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Cubs' last 25 road contests. Weather shouldn't factor with just a slight breeze blowing out to center. Malachi Moore is scheduled to be the home plate umpire for only the eighth time in his big league career. The Under has cashed six of the seven times he's been behind the plate.
07-31-21	Brewers -145 v. Braves		1-8	Loss	-145	15 h 50 m	Show
I'll lay a mid-size price to get the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. I'm not worried about this game being in Atlanta. Milwaukee is 22-7 in its last 29 road games. The Brewers are playing well with a lot of confidence going 9-3 since All-Star break. Woodruff has a 1.96 road ERA and 2.14 ERA on the season. He has 1.84 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Atlanta. The Brewers have a fresh Josh Hader to head their strong bullpen. The Braves are going with rookie Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Brewers have tremendous depth with the addition of Eduardo Escobar, who made his presence immediately felt with Milwaukee hitting a home run in the Brewers' 9-5 Friday victory against the Braves. Christian Yelich is on the injured list, but he was having a terrible season.
07-31-21	Orioles -102 v. Tigers		5-2	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
Matt Manning may become a good pitcher in time. But right now Manning, one of the Tigers' better pitching prospects, hasn't effectively made the big league grade. He has a losing record and a 6.00 ERA. Manning gave up four runs in five innings to the Twins during his last start. The Tigers go against Baltimore's top pitcher, John Means. Neither of these teams is good, but the Orioles are respectable when Means pitches. He's 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. So given the better pitcher at this price, I'll side with the Orioles.
07-31-21	A's v. Angels UNDER 10	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 34 m	Show
If you can't beat him, walk him. That's been the A's motto this series when facing Shohei Ohtani. It's paid off for Oakland as they have shut out the Angels in each of the first two games. Oakland can get away with this strategy because the Angels are missing three key bats - Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. These injuries have taken a toll. The Angels have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games. The A's, though, haven't been lighting the scoreboard on fire either. They've been held to 4 or fewer runs in six of their past seven games. The total is high because of the pitching matchup, Cole Irvin versus Jaime Barria. Irvin, however, has been sneaky effective with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Barria has a fat 6.23 ERA. However, he's only thrown 13 innings. Barria made his first start of the year this past Sunday and held the Twins to two runs on four hits in seven innings. His fastball topped off higher than 95 mph in that game, the fastest he's ever thrown. There is wind blowing out to right at about 9 mph, but this is more than offset with Tripp Gibson being the projected home plate umpire. The Under is a staggering 16-4 (80 percent) in games Gibson has been the home plate umpire in this season.
07-30-21	Astros v. Giants -111	Top	9-6	Loss	-111	18 h 8 m	Show
You don't fade the Astros. You just like the other side better when the price is right. That's the case here. San Francisco has the highest winning percentage in the majors. The Giants are 33-16 at home and have their ace, Kevin Gausman, going. He's having a breakthrough season with a 9-4 record, 2.21 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 20 starts. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who I like but not as much as Gausman. Prior to shutting out the punchless Rangers for six innings during his last start, Valdez has given up 11 earned runs in three prior starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. The Giants also have the stronger bullpen with the sixth-lowest ERA in the majors. The Astros' bullpen is mediocre.
07-30-21	Twins v. Cardinals -140		1-5	Win	100	5 h 1 m	Show
The Twins' highly disappointing season just got worse. Minnesota dealt its best pitcher, Jose Berrios, to the Blue Jays today. Berrios was supposed to start against St. Louis. Instead the Twins will go with reliever Griffin Jax, who has a 7.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Cardinals are hanging in going 14-10 in their last 24 games. St. Louis is pitching veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has a 3.45 ERA with the Cardinals. He's backed by Alex Reyes, who has been one of the best closers in baseball with 24 saves in 25 opportunities and a 1.93 ERA. Minnesota has lost 25 of the past 34 times it has faced a lefty starter.
07-30-21	Orioles v. Tigers OVER 9.5		4-3	Loss	-103	15 h 24 m	Show
The Orioles have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.48. Matt Harvey has contributed to that with a 6.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 88 innings. These hideous numbers include Harvey inexplicably riding a string of 12 scoreless innings in a row. I'm not counting on Harvey to throw a third straight well-pitched game. The Tigers are averaging 8.5 runs in their last four games. The Over is 22-7-1 in Detroit's last 30 games against a righty starter. Baltimore, though, should do its share of damage against lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Skubal is a good strikeout pitcher, but he gives up way too many homers - nine in 32 innings last season and 22 in 99 2/3 innings this year. Skubal yielded three homers in five innings against the Royals in his last start. The Orioles have the second-highest batting average in the American League versus lefties. The Over has cashed 16 of the past 22 times when the Orioles have gone against a southpaw. Weather-wise, the forecast is for wind to be blowing out to right at 7 mph.
07-29-21	Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates		12-0	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
I have little doubt the Brewers are going to beat the Pirates like they have in 28 of the previous 39 meetings. The key question is can Milwaukee win by more than one run? I certainly believe so in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Chad Kuhl. The Brewers have outscored the Pirates by 13 runs in winning the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost by more than one run during 16 of its last 17 losses. Milwaukee has gotten stronger acquiring Eduardo Escobar, while the Pirates got weaker, trading All-Star Adam Frazier to the Padres. Peralta is one of the most effective pitchers in the National League with a 2.29 ERA and 140 strikeouts in just 102 innings. He's backed by a healthy and upper tier bullpen. Kuhl is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.38 ERA. He has a 8.64 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season.
07-29-21	Reds -116 v. Cubs	Top	7-4	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
After a horrendous start, Luis Castillo has been one of the most effective pitchers in his last 10 starts posing a 1.71 ERA during this span. Castillo goes against a banged-up and demoralized Cubs squad that are highly likely to be sellers leading up to Friday's trade deadline. It's a dark cloud hovering above the Cubs. Castillo should dominate again with the wind blowing in at around 14 mph and facing a Chicago lineup that could be without Javier Baez for a fourth straight day and leading hitter Nico Hoerner, who left Wednesday's game with an oblique strain. The Cubs finished Wednesday's 8-2 loss with Kris Bryant playing shortstop. Cincinnati has fortified its vulnerable middle relief trading for Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson. The Cubs are slated to start Alec Mills, who has a 4.55 ERA. He'l be dealing with a red-hot Joey Votto, who has homered in five consecutive games.
07-29-21	White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10		0-5	Win	100	10 h 56 m	Show
There's about a 9 mph wind blowing out to right, but this is more than offset by Carolos Rodon being on the mound and this being a daytime, getaway game that often favors an Under. Rodon is one of the better pitchers in the American League with a 2.24 ERA. The Royals are averaging 3.3 runs during the first three games of this series. Carlos Hernandez is slated to start for Kansas City. This will be his third consecutive start after working out of the bullpen. There is an unknown element to Hernandez. But the White Sox may not have Eloy Jimenez, who left Wednesday's game with groin tightness, and they haven't been producing many runs. The White Sox are averaging only 2.4 runs during their last seven games. This has become a real division rivalry due to the past history of the respective managers, Mike Matheny and Tony LaRussa. These are old school guys who know the importance of playing for one important run rather than gambling on a big inning.
07-28-21	Yankees v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-104	16 h 20 m	Show
I can easily see both teams scoring at least four runs. The offenses are strong enough and the starting pitching matchup is weak. The Yankees' lineup is bolstered by the return of Aaron Judge from COVID-19. The Rays recently picked up Nelson Cruz. So both teams have an added power burst. Nestor Cortes is making a spot start for the Yankees. This looks like a bullpen game for New York as Cortest hasn't pitched five straight innings all season. The Yankees' bullpen has been overworked and their depth is down following a trade of relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to the Reds for a player to be named later. Cessa was having his finest season. The Yankees did this to free up money. Michael Wacha goes for Tampa Bay. He hasn't been good with a 5.16 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
07-27-21	A's +144 v. Padres	Top	4-7	Loss	-100	17 h 35 m	Show
The rebuilt Padres, sparked by superstar Fernando Tatis, are getting lots of love and attention. Not so for Oakland. Yet the A's have just one fewer loss than San Diego. I find good value with the A's here in a pitching matchup of James Kaprielian versus Chris Paddack. Kaprielian has exceeded expectations going 5-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has a 1.18 WHIP and has held opponents to a .202 batting average in his dozen starts. His ERA in three starts this month is 1.50. Both teams were idle on Monday. Oakland is 11-2 following an off day. Paddack has mainly disappointed this season going 6-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Kaprielian has been the more consistent pitcher.
07-26-21	Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10.5	Top	5-6	Loss	-115	16 h 10 m	Show
The Tigers are a below average offensive team. They were shut out for eight innings on Sunday by Royals pitcher Daniel Lynch, who entered the game with a 15.75 ERA. The Twins are 12th in runs and 13th in batting average. They just traded Nelson Cruz, who was leading them in homers and RBI's. Minnesota has scored 5 or fewer runs in 10 of its last 11 games. The total is double-digits because the pitching matchup is Matt Manning versus Michael Pineda. Manning, though, has been pitching better with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Pineda held the powerful White Sox to only one run in five innings during his last start.
07-26-21	White Sox -122 v. Royals		3-4	Loss	-122	16 h 59 m	Show
The Royals are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Tigers. But now they are stepping way up in class. I consider this a low price to lay, especially given the pitching matchup of southpaws Dallas Keuchel versus Mike Minor. The White Sox are deadly against lefties. Chicago is 19-8 versus southpaws this season. The White Sox rank in the top-six against lefties in many hitting categories, including batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage. Boosting the White Sox power is Eloy Jimenez is expected to make his season debut after being out with a ruptured pectoral tendon sustained during spring training. Minor has a losing record and a 5.45 ERA. Keuchel is 7-3 with a 4.22 ERA. Career-wise against the Royals, he's 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 11 starts.
07-25-21	Diamondbacks +156 v. Cubs		1-5	Loss	-100	9 h 40 m	Show
The Cubs have no business being this high of a favorite against any team - and that includes the Diamondbacks. Arizona whipped Chicago, 7-3, on Saturday. That marked the Cubs' 18th loss in their last 24 games. This horrendous stretch is likely to cost them their outstanding core of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel. It's difficult for the Cubs to keep their concentration in a world of trade rumors and uncertainty. The Diamondbacks have the stronger pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Caleb Smith versus Trevor Williams. Smith has shown flashes throughout his career. He holds a 2.78 daytime ERA. Williams has a 7.89 ERA in day games.
07-25-21	Tigers -107 v. Royals	Top	1-6	Loss	-107	9 h 60 m	Show
He's only made three starts, but the Royals' Daniel Lynch is laying claim to being the worst starter in the American League if not all of baseball. Lynch is 0-2 with a 15.75 ERA! The lefty doesn't even have the element of surprise going for him. The Tigers saw him earlier this season for 2 2/3 innings and reached him for four runs, three of which were earned. The Tigers were riding a season-best seven-game win streak before losing the first two games of this series. Detroit blew a 6-0 lead in losing by a run to the Royals on Saturday. So the frustrated Tigers should be focused. Detroit doesn't get much respect from the oddsmaker, but the Tigers have won six more games than the Royals. Detroit has some decent below-the-radar pitchers. Southpaw Tarik Skubal is one such starter. He's held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. He ranks 16th in the American League in strikeouts. Skubal is at his best in day games, too, with a 4-1 record and 3.15 ERA. The Tigers have a rested closer in Gregory Soto. He's better than any of Kansas City's relievers. The Tigers have a winning record versus lefty starters, while the Royals are below .500 when facing southpaw starters.
07-24-21	Pirates v. Giants -1.5		10-2	Loss	-120	17 h 26 m	Show
The Giants were flat on Friday and they paid the price losing, 6-4, to the Pirates at home. I want the Giants going for me today in bounce back mode especially with a pitching matchup of Wil Crowe versus Kevin Gausman. This is a kill spot for San Francisco so I'll lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Gausman has been tremendous this season with a 9-3 record and 1.84 ERA. However, he's off his worst performance of the season this past Monday against the Dodgers. It was just the second time this year Gausman allowed more than two runs in a game. The weak-hitting Pirates are not the Dodgers. The Giants should tee off on Crowe, who is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA. I put Crowe in the lowest tier of starters. Despite their upset win on Friday, the Pirates still have won just 26 percent of their last 85 away games.
07-24-21	Nationals -1.5 v. Orioles	Top	3-5	Loss	-125	16 h 27 m	Show
Max Scherzer versus Matt Harvey is a mismatch of epic proportions. If it were a heavyweight fight it never would get sanctioned. I'll get involved laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Nationals, who will be getting their full number of at bats being the road team. The Orioles are as bad as ever with the worst home mark in the majors at 14-30, which includes a 2-9 record in their last 11 games at Camden Yards. Baltimore has lost 48 of its last 64 overall games. Scherzer has a 2.83 ERA with a 142-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season despite enduring some rough outings in his last three starts. Those starts, however, came against the Padres twice and Dodgers. Now he's stepping way, way down in class. Harvey is 4-10 with a 7.13 ERA, which rises to 7.90 at home. The Nationals got a look at Harvey on May 23. They liked what they saw getting to him for six runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings.
07-24-21	Diamondbacks +145 v. Cubs		7-3	Win	145	11 h 22 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are a joke - except when Merrill Kelly is pitching. Kelly will be taking the mound today facing Alec Mills and a disappointing Cubs team that has lost 17 of their last 23 games and expected to be sellers when the trade deadline comes up in a week. Arizona needs to be taken seriously when Kelly pitches having won five of his past six starts. Kelly has a 2.56 ERA during his last six starts. Among the teams the Diamondbacks have defeated during Kelly's last six starts are the Giants, Padres, Brewers and Cubs. Mills is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.64 ERA. So the Diamondbacks hold a major starting edge while getting a nice plus price.
07-23-21	A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5		3-4	Loss	-115	20 h 59 m	Show
I liked the Under a lot in Thursday's opener between these two teams. It came in as the A's won, 4-1. But there were 21 runners left on base. That bodes well for today's game going Over where Frankie Montas goes against Yusei Kikcuhi. Montas is 8-8 with a 4.33 ERA. I consider him better than those mediocre numbers. However, he's by no means a great pitcher and his ERA in night games is 4.85. Kikcuhi is going through his worst two-game stretch of the season giving up 12 earned runs in his last pair of starts spanning just 10 innings. He's allowed three homers during this time frame.
07-23-21	Tigers +114 v. Royals		3-5	Loss	-100	16 h 5 m	Show
When it comes to lack of respect, the late Rodney Dangerfield had nothing on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers haven't lost since before the All-Star break. They are on a 7-0 run. The Royals have eight fewer victories than the Tigers. Kansas City has dropped 29 of its last 39 games. Yet the Royals opened a favorite against Detroit despite all this, including a pitching matchup that favors the Tigers. Righthander Wily Peralta has made six starts this year for Detroit. He's surrendered zero or one earned run in five of those outings. He's 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA. The Royals have lost 71 percent of the time during their past 51 games going against a righty. The Royals' starting staff is crippled with Danny Duffy and Brady Singer on the injured list. This has forced the Royals to turn to Kris Bubic, who has proven to be a better reliever than starter. Bubic has a 6.34 ERA in eight starts this season. Detroit has won seven of its last nine meetings against Kansas City.
07-23-21	Nationals -128 v. Orioles	Top	1-6	Loss	-128	16 h 5 m	Show
Trailing the first-place Mets by six games in the NL East, the Nationals are poised to make a move. This is their opportunity with three games against the Orioles, who have the worst home mark in the majors at 13-30. The Nationals get to open against Jorge Lopez, one of the worst starters in baseball with a 2-12 record and 6.04 ERA. Lopez has reached the sixth inning just once in his last seven starts. The Nationals got their bad game out of the way during their last game, a 3-1 loss to the Marlins where they hit into four double plays. Prior to that, though, the hot hitting Nationals were averaging 8.8 runs during their last five games. Washington starter Patrick Corbin had a very strong year two seasons ago. He started this year slow, but had an excellent June. This month not so good. Still, I like Corbin to get things turned around here against a Baltimore club that ranks 24th in runs and 25th in homers.
07-22-21	A's v. Mariners UNDER 8	Top	4-1	Win	100	19 h 4 m	Show
I don't see many runs being scored here at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park in a pitching matchup of Sean Manaea versus Chris Flexen. Flexen has been tremendous at home this season going 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts at T-Mobile. He faces an Oakland offense that ranks 23rd in batting and is averaging 3.2 runs in its last 11 games, discounting an eight-run performance against the hapless Rangers and Mike Foltynewicz. Manaea has been steady all season posting a 3.28 ERA. He pitched a game against the Mariners in Seattle last month shutting out the Mariners on four hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. Manaea went the distance in that 6-0 victory. Seattle ranks last in the majors in batting at .218.
07-22-21	Angels v. Twins -135		3-2	Loss	-135	17 h 6 m	Show
The Twins have underachieved all season. But they still rank third in the majors in homers and I can see them build off a highly-satisfying 7-2 road win against the White Sox on Wednesday. The pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Kenta Maeda is a case of two starters heading in opposite directions. The southpaw Heaney has a 9.33 ERA during his last four starts and a 5.56 ERA on the season. Minnesota ranks second in the American League in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Maeda is starting to turn around his disappointing season, giving up three earned runs in his last 16 innings for a 1.69 ERA during this span. He faces an Angels lineup devoid of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. The Angels have scored just five runs in their last three games and are 19-26 on the road.
07-21-21	Mariners v. Rockies -135	Top	3-6	Win	100	5 h 6 m	Show
Back at home, fade on the road. That's the betting mantra of the Colorado Rockies. I passed on the Rockies yesterday and they were upset at home by Seattle. I don't see a repeat of that occurring today. Colorado is 32-20 at Coors Field. The Rockies are No. 1 in baseball in runs scored at home, while also ranking second in home batting average and third in slugging percentage in their home contests. Seattle has a losing road record. Moreso, Colorado starter Austin Gomber has proven effective at Coors Field where he's 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA this season. Gomber is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Mariners are using this as a bullpen game. So their mediocre relief corps gets to deal with Coors Field. Chances are good that several of Seattle relievers are going to experience difficulty.
07-21-21	Mets -128 v. Reds		7-0	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
This is a low price to get the much superior starting pitcher in a matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Jeff Hoffman. Neither bullpen is worth bragging about so starting pitching takes on added importance. Stroman is 2-to-3 levels above Hoffman, who has a 4.61 ERA and last pitched on June 26. He's been out due to a sore right shoulder. Hoffman has a 7.43 lifetime ERA against the Mets in six appearances, including four starts. Stroman should have extra incentive after a poor performance in his last start, a 4-1 loss to the hapless Pirates this past Friday. Stroman may not have to deal with the Reds' best player, Nick Castellanos, who has just two at bats the last five days because of a sore wrist. The Mets have been highly successful playing in Cincinnati winning 16 of the past 23 times there.
07-20-21	Rangers v. Tigers -109		1-4	Win	100	16 h 56 m	Show
It's not good when your team is mentioned with the Brooklyn Superbas of 115 years ago. But that's where the Texas Rangers are right now. The Rangers have lost six in a row with the last three losses coming by a combined score of 29-0. The 1906 Superbas were the last team to lose three straight that bad while not scoring a run. The Tigers entered the All-Star break off a three-game sweep of the Twins. Detroit stretched its win streak to four by stomping the hapless Rangers, 14-0, on Monday. The score could have been 16-0, but two Tigers were thrown out at the plate. Still, this was a season high in runs for Detroit. It's rare for the Tigers to hold a confidence boost against any team. But this game should be a clear exception. Texas has been outscored by 44 runs during its six-game losing skid. The Rangers are one of the worst road teams in the majors having dropped 53 of their past 69 away contests. The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning, 3-6 with a 4.22 ERA, versus Tarik Skubal, who is 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. Skubal is a high strikeout pitcher with 105 K's in 88 2/3 innings. Detroit is 6-2 in Skubal's last eight starts. This is an action play for me, though, as I want to fade the Rangers at this low price.
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks -5	Top	98-105	Win	100	40 h 47 m	Show
Losing the first two games of this championship series, the Bucks have rallied to win three in a row. The Bucks beat the Suns by 20 points at home in Game 3. They defeated the Suns by six points at home in Game 4 despite being outshot 51 percent to 40 percent from the floor and they knocked off the Suns in Game 5 on the road by four points despite trailing by 16 points going into the second quarter. Clearly, the Bucks have all the momentum. But it's not just momentum. Giannis Antetokounmpo is proving he's the finest all-around player in the NBA. The Bucks are exploiting their height advantage and depth. And now the Bucks play at Fiserv Forum in what is arguably their biggest home game in franchise history. The Suns had their chance to go up 3-2 in the series leading 32-16 at home at the end of the first quarter in Game 5. The Bucks took the punch and came back to win. Milwaukee is making the clutch plays not Phoenix. Lack of big-game playoff experience may have hurt the Suns. Devin Booker is playing great again, though. Chris Paul played much better in Game 5. But it didn't matter. The Suns can't match the Bucks' size, bench strength and Antetokounmpo's all-world performances. Getting this deep into the series isn't a plus either for Phoenix. This is the longest the Suns have ever lasted. They have never faced elimination before. So there is a mental question. There also is a physical concern - fatigue. Deandre Ayton went a career-high 45 minutes in Game 5. The Suns take a massive hit when Ayton, their lone effective big man, isn't on the court. Booker logged close to 42 minutes. Jae Crowder played 40 minutes. Paul is 36 years old. The Bucks are the fresher team because of their deeper bench. Perhaps the Suns can hang in on sheer willpower for a while, but their gas tank is near empty. This is the Bucks' chance. I don't see them blowing it. Antetokounmpo won't let that happen.
07-20-21	Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5	Top	98-105	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
Thanks to an exceptional shooting performance by both teams in the last game, oddsmakers opened this Game 6 with the highest total of the championship series. I don't expect nearly that type of scoring in this potential closeout game. The Suns are determined to step up their defensive pressure. Giannis Antetokounmpo can't play any better than he has. Only worse. Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have run hot-and-cold during this series. Phoenix ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. The Bucks are doing a great job of cutting the head off the snake, which is Chris Paul. The Bucks have forced Paul into committing an average of 3.6 turnovers per game. The combination of full-court pressure, excellent defense by Holiday and Paul's left wrist not being 100 percent have contributed to the Bucks' defensive effectiveness along with their size and athletic length. The Bucks ranked fifth during the regular season in defensive field goal percentage. Both teams have endured a long and grueling season to reach this deep point of the season. The pace has slowed down during each of the last three games. The tempo should be slow again with this being such a pivotal game and the Suns having a short bench.
07-19-21	Mets v. Reds UNDER 10.5	Top	15-11	Loss	-111	16 h 14 m	Show
An outstanding hitter's park. Two lower-tier starters. Unreliable bullpens. But no this isn't a misprint. I like Under in this Mets-Reds game with a pitching matchup of Jerad Eickhoff versus rookie Vladimir Gutierrez. The oddsmaker knows the marketplace isn't looking to play this Under. So I find value with the total above 10. Consider: The Mets are second-to-last in the majors in runs scored. They are 25th in homers. Francisco Lindor is out with an oblique injury. Gutierrez is off an impressive start holding the Brewers to one run on five hits in six innings. Cincinnati's bullpen has shown improvement lately. The Reds may have found a reliable closer in Heath Hembree. He has 52 strikeouts in 31 innings. The Reds are averaging only 3.1 runs in their last seven games. Their two best hitters are Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winkler. Castellanos has missed the last two games because of a right wrist injury. He's questionable here. Winkler is in a slump batting .203 with two homers in his last 154 plate appearances. Eickhoff has seen limited duty. This will be only his second start of the season. This is an opportunity to prove he's a big league starter. He likely won't have many other chances if he doesn't pitch well here. Weather-wise there's a cross-wind blowing at seven mph.
07-18-21	Red Sox +105 v. Yankees	Top	1-9	Loss	-100	14 h 36 m	Show
It took Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, a series of questionable calls and a rain-shortened six inning game, but the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox. Boston had won the first seven games against the Yankees this season until New York squeaked out a 3-1 win Saturday. This doesn't hide the fact the Red Sox have nine more wins this season than the Yankees and are the superior team especially given current conditions. No Cole now for today's series finale. The pitching matchup is lefty Martin Perez versus Jameson Taillon. I like Perez especially on the road where he's pitched much better. But this is an action play for me. The Yankees are reeling even with Cole's victory. It was just a band aid on what has been a lost season for New York. New York is 24-23 at home. Boston is 28-18 on the road. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters and average-to-below average hitting statistics against southpaws. Perez is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA on the road this season. Making things worse for the Yankees is they've been hit by a COVID-19 episode costing them numerous players and coaches. Among those out are power hitters Aaron Judge and Luke Voit. Taillon is a bottom tier starter with a 4.90 ERA that rises to 5.29 in night games. The Red Sox are 17-6 in their last 23 games against righty starters.
07-18-21	Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8		0-4	Win	101	8 h 0 m	Show
If we're talking AL Cy Young Award candidates then the name Carlos Rodon can't be omitted. Rodon is showing what he can do when healthy. He's 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA - and that's not the most impressive part. He's struck out more than 36 percent of the batters he's faced while posting a career-low walk ratio. Opponents are batting .183 against him. Rodon has dominated the Astros in his career with a 1.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts. The Astros are pitching lefty Framber Valdez, who has turned around his season posting a 5-1 mark and 2.98 ERA in his last nine starts. The Under has won nine of the last 11 times the White Sox have faced a southpaw at home. More than any other day of the week, Unders occur on Sunday when key everyday players sometimes get rested. The wind is blowing in at eight mph and the slated home plate umpire is Scott Barry, who has a slight Under bias.
07-18-21	Rays -107 v. Braves		7-5	Win	100	7 h 36 m	Show
I'm not going to overthink this one. The Rays are 54-38 while the Braves are below .500. Atlanta starter Drew Smyly has been pitching well, but I prefer the Rays' starter, Rich Hill. Hill is 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Braves, including seven starters. The Braves are minus their most dynamic player, Ronald Acuna Jr. I don't think that has been fully factored into the line. I believe the Rays will respond well to the 9-0 embarrassing drubbing they took to the Braves Saturday.
07-17-21	Bucks +4 v. Suns	Top	123-119	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
Sure, home-court is huge for the Suns. The Zig-Zag is on their side, too. It's their turn to win. However, the Suns face numerous issues that put me on the underdog Bucks for this Game 5. I've summarized them into five points: 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is showing no ill effects from his injury. He's actually playing the best basketball of his career, which is saying a lot since he's the two-time league MVP. Antetokounmpo gives the Bucks the best player on the court. Superstars win NBA championships. 2. The Bucks are bigger and more athletic. Milwaukee has exploited that to shoot 31 more field goals and 19 more free throws than the Suns during the first four games. The Bucks are dominating the offensive glass while averaging nearly eight more shots per game than Phoenix. The Suns took a major hit when backup big man Dario Saric suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the series. The Suns are at a severe disadvantage when Deandre Ayton isn't on the court - and he can't play every minute. 3. Turnovers. The Bucks are winning the possession battle by forcing more turnovers. Chris Paul, bothered by the great defense of Jrue Holiday and perhaps still hindered by a left wrist injury, has committed 15 turnovers during the last three games. Paul hasn't had a three-game turnover stretch that bad in seven years. 4. Momentum. The Bucks have it. Their confidence is way up. 5. Shooting percentage. The Bucks shot 40 percent from the field in Game 4. The Suns made 51 percent of their field goals. Yet the Bucks still won by six points. The shots are there for the Bucks. Holiday is a much better scorer than he's shown in this series. So is Kris Middleton. I expect Milwaukee's accuracy to go up.
07-17-21	Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 12	Top	9-2	Win	100	15 h 19 m	Show
The Rockies have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games. They are dealing with a COVID outbreak and worst of all they draw Walker Buehler. Buehler is an elite force with a 9-1 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He's in excellent form, too, with a 1.53 ERA in his last three starts. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field where his ERA is 4.58 compared to 5.48 on the season. Freeland has been pitching better, too, as he's gotten healthier. He has a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts.
07-16-21	Rays +115 v. Braves	Top	7-6	Win	115	10 h 8 m	Show
This is an action play based on value. I'm not a big fan of Michael Wacha, but the Rays have a deep and fresh bullpen. Kevin Cash isn't afraid to use his relief pitchers either. I like Charlie Morton better than Wacha. But Morton isn't having one of his better seasons and the Rays are much superior to the Braves. Morton has a losing lifetime record against the Rays. Tampa Bay is 16 games above .500. The Rays are 25-20 on the road and have beaten a righty starter 21 of the past 30 times. Atlanta is a below .500 team. The Braves aren't that good at home either going 24-22. They are 1-8 the past nine times they've been an interleague favorite. The Braves are minus their superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who is out for the season with a torn ACL.
07-14-21	Suns +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	103-109	Loss	-108	38 h 2 m	Show
The first three games of this NBA championship series have all been decided by double-digits. We're overdue for a close game. That should come here as each team now has a full feel of their opponent. This is a very even series now that Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown he's back at his elite level. Milwaukee punched back after falling behind 2-0 in the series with a resounding, 120-100, Game 3 home win on Sunday. Now it's the Suns' turn to respond, which I believe they will. The last time the Suns lost two in a row was three series ago when they dropped Games 2 and 3 against the Lakers. Since then the Suns have gone 10-3 versus the Nuggets, Clippers and Bucks. That's remarkable resiliency to go with three stars on the court, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. That's two more stars than the Bucks have. Milwaukee's strength in this series is its size and depth. The Suns are short-handed behind Ayton with backup Dario Saric out for the season after tearing his ACL in Game 1. Ayton must play major minutes. He didn't during Game 3 because of foul trouble. He should be fresh with three days in between Game 3 and Game 4 instead of the normal two days. Saddled with five fouls in a game for the first time in the postseason, Ayton only played 24 minutes on Sunday. The Bucks, especially Antetokounmpo, took full advantage dominating the paint and attacking the rim at will. Antetokounmpo alone shot 17 free throws in Game 3, which was more than the entire Suns team got to shoot from the foul line. Not helping matters for Phoenix was Booker had his worst game of the series going just 3-for-14 from the floor. He hadn't had that low of a scoring game during the entire calendar year of 2021. The Suns, who had the second-highest shooting percentage during the regular season, missed 22 of 31 shots from 3-point range. The Bucks' three best players - Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - were a combined 28-of-51 from the field and made 16 of 20 free throws in Sunday's victory. Middleon and Holiday aren't likely to play as poorly as they did during the first two games of the series. However, they aren't likely to produce ''A'' level games either against the Suns' tough defense. The Suns scored 118 points in each of the first two games of this series when they were home. Maybe they don't reach that number again being on the road. But they sure should score more than 100 points. I doubt Booker is out of rhythm a second straight game and I doubt Ayton encounters foul trouble a second consecutive time having avoided it throughout the playoffs while dominating the Clippers and playing Denver superstar Nikola Jokic to a standstill. Holiday is a solid two-way player. Perhaps even underrated. But he's not vintage Chris Paul, which is what Paul has been during the postseason. I see solid value on the Suns in this price range.
07-13-21	American League v. National League UNDER 11	Top	5-2	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
Sure the game is at Coors Field. But I can't recall an All-Star Game with a total this high. Only once in the last 14 All-Star Games have there been more than nine runs scored. Coors Field shouldn't be given that much credit for such a high total given the caliber of pitchers, especially the many high strikeout ones, including four of the top six league-leaders, along with a number of dominant, high strikeout closers. The All-Star Game was last played in 2019. The American League won, 4-3. AL pitchers struck out 16 batters. The three best players in baseball are Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Trout. Only Tatis will be playing. A possible key is German Marquez. He doesn't have the fame like some of these other All-Star pitchers, but I hope he gets to pitch more than one inning. He's one of the hottest pitchers in the big leagues giving up just three earned runs in his last four starts spanning 29 innings. He's also experienced pitching at Coors Field where he's 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA there.
07-11-21	Suns v. Bucks -4	Top	100-120	Win	100	23 h 35 m	Show
This is the Bucks' season and I believe Milwaukee will respond well to the challenge being back at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks came back against the Nets and Hawks in their previous series. The Suns are better than those teams. Things are going well for the Suns, but they are not a super dominant power. During two of their series, they lost Game 3 at the Lakers and lost Game 3 at the Clippers. The best news for the Bucks is the return to health of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has outscored Phoenix by four points during the time he's been on the court. The Bucks' problems are their other players stepping up. Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton are proven, solid players. They are overdue for much better performances. I don't expect the Suns to sink 50 percent of their 40 3-point shots like they did in Game 2 and I do expect the Bucks to shoot much better from 3-point range than the 9-for-31 performance of Game 2.
07-11-21	A's -143 v. Rangers		4-1	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
Cheap price for the A's to lay here with All-Star Chris Bassitt against southpaw Kolby Allard and a Texas team that has the second-worst record in the American League. Bassitt, who is 9-2, has allowed just two runs in his last three starts against Texas spanning 20 innings. The Rangers have lost 40 of the past 56 times when going against a righty starter. Allard is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 4.67 ERA during this time span. He faced Oakland twice in June and gave up seven runs in 12 innings. Oakland is 44-17 in its last 61 road games against a lefty starter.
07-11-21	Reds v. Brewers -155		3-1	Loss	-155	8 h 35 m	Show
Luis Castillo has been pitching better, but he still doesn't compare to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers also hold a monster bullpen edge, which they won't hesitate to use if needed due to this being the last game before the All-Star break. Castillo has 10 losses, the most in the majors. He's been a huge disappointment for much of the year. Woodruff has been tremendous with a 2.10 ERA. The Brewers are 27-19 at home and getting unexpected power from their middle infield of Willy Adams and Luis Urias.
07-11-21	Phillies v. Red Sox UNDER 10		5-4	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
The oddsmaker has priced this game a run too high in my view given a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Nick Pivetta. Nolan is a proven ace. His 4.53 ERA seems high, but judging by various metrics he's pitched better than that having had some bad luck. Nick Pivetta can be hit-or-miss. He's been solid most of the season, though, and certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. He's off a brilliant start shutting out the A's in seven innings with 10 strikeouts in a 1-0 victory a week ago. This is the final game before the All-Star break so both managers won't be afraid to employ their best relievers for multiple innings if needed.
07-10-21	Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5	Top	0-2	Win	100	17 h 23 m	Show
We know T-Mobile Park, formerly Safeco Field, is one of the best pitching parks in the majors. Put the right pitching matchup there, take out some key bats and you have the ingredients for an Under if the total isn't quite right. The oddsmaker believes this total is right given that the starting pitchers are Patrick Sandoval versus Chris Flexen. Those pitchers certainly don't move the needle. But they should in this game. Flexen is brilliant when pitching at T-Mobile with a 5-2 record and 1.99 ERA in nine home starts. He gets to face an Angel lineup that is minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Upton. The lefthanded Sandoval went against the Mariners a month ago and held them to two earned runs in six innings with 10 strikeouts. Seattle ranks last in the majors in on-base percentage against southpaws and is second-to-last in batting versus lefties. Kerwin Danley is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed 66 percent of the time he's been behind the plate the past 32 times.
07-10-21	Mystics v. Sky -8.5		89-85	Loss	-115	10 h 24 m	Show
The Sky is the far healthier team and has been playing well. The Mystics aren't ready to make a move yet until the season resumes following a month-long Olympic break when they can regroup and get their starts back. Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games. The Sky rank second in scoring during this span averaging 87.5 points. They are better than their overall record because of a slow start and not having Candace Parker earlier in the season due to injury.
07-09-21	Storm -6.5 v. Mercury		77-85	Loss	-115	10 h 33 m	Show
Seattle has won eight of its nine road games. I trust the Storm to cover this road number. Going back the past several seasons, the Storm have covered 25 of the last 35 times they've been road chalk. The Storm draw the Mercury after they just upset the Aces on the road two days ago in overtime. I don't think the Mercury has the maturity to avoid a letdown and the Storm are just the team to take advantage. Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Storm have covered in five of their last six visits to Phoenix.
07-09-21	A's -131 v. Rangers		2-3	Loss	-131	16 h 2 m	Show
The A's haven't been playing that well lately, but they are off a huge, 2-1, road win against the Astros Thursday and now are stepping way down in class. I see the A's riding some momentum against a Rangers squad that is 19 games below .500 and is at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup. It's Cole Irvin versus journeyman Jordan Lyles. Irvin is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last six starts. The A's are 6-0 during these starts. Lyles is having another Lyles' type season with a losing record and 4.98 ERA. His ERA is 5.14 at home and 5.55 during night games.
07-09-21	White Sox -130 v. Orioles	Top	12-1	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
Dallas Keuchel is past his prime. That's a given. But this line still is way too short. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games. They are terrible and they have a terrible pitcher going in righty Jorge Lopez. He's 2-11 with a 6.02 ERA. The White Sox terrorize lefties, but they also are 7-2 in their last nine games versus righthanders. The White Sox have the fifth-highest batting average in the majors and also have scored the fifth-most runs per game. Lopez has a 5.48 career ERA versus the White Sox in four games, including three starts. Keuchel has a 3.23 career ERA against Baltimore in nine starts. The White Sox have won the last five games between the two teams.
07-09-21	Liberty v. Fever OVER 161.5		69-82	Loss	-110	8 h 31 m	Show
The Liberty have been playing well averaging 87.7 points during their last four games. But they have surrendered at least 78 points in five of their last six games. The Fever should be pumped after upsetting the Sun as a 15-point 'dog in their last game. That was just their second win of the season. Prior to holding the Sun to just 67 points, the Fever had given up at least 82 points in 11 of their last 12 games. The Under has cashed just twice during the past eight meetings between the two teams.
07-08-21	Bucks +5.5 v. Suns	Top	108-118	Loss	-104	19 h 55 m	Show
The Suns did what they did during their three previous playoff series, they came out fired up and executed well in winning and covering the spread in Tuesday's Game 1. Phoenix, though, failed to cover the number in Game 2 during their series against the Lakers and Clippers. The Suns' playoff and big-game inexperience showed in those non-covers. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked fine on Tuesday. The Bucks are right there with the Suns with a healthy Antetokounmpo. There are a number of signs pointing to the Bucks not only covering this Game 2, but perhaps coming away with the straight-up victory. Antetokounmpo scored 20 points, pulled down 17 rebounds and defended the rim. He was somewhat rusty, though. He needs his rhythm and he'll find it here. He's capable of playing even better. Free throws. What the hell? The Suns shot 26 free throws in Game 1. Their only miss came with 24 seconds left. They were 25-of-26. Milwaukee only got to shoot 16 free throws. Kris Middleton fired 26 shots - and didn't draw one foul. Strange. The Bucks are well-coached defensively. It's extremely rare for an opponent to get that many free throws against Milwaukee. The Bucks will be more aggressive. The lopsided foul situation should be rectified. It was an outlier. The Bucks had to play on much shorter rest than Phoenix in Game 1. The Bucks also got caught off-guard defending the Suns' pick-and-roll. Adjustments will be made. ''That will be a big part of looking between Game 1 and Game 2,'' Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was quoted as saying. Milwaukee has covered the past four times following a non-cover. I expect Jrue Holiday to play better, too. He didn't shoot well in Game 1 and may have been too passive with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup after playing great in the last two games without him. Holiday isn't Chris Paul, but he's a solid two-way player.
07-08-21	Phillies v. Cubs -101		8-0	Loss	-101	15 h 13 m	Show
The Cubs snapped their hideous 11-game losing streak, beating the Phillies, 8-3, on Wednesday. The Cubs did it by lighting up Zach Wheeler for five runs in the first two innings. Wheeler entered the matchup with a 1.15 ERA in his last six starts. This was an impressive victory for the Cubs and I believe they'll ride this momentum and beat the Phillies again. Chicago is 27-15 at home. Philadelphia is 17-27 on the road. I also like the Cubs' starter, Adbert Alzolay, more than the Phillies starter, Zach Eflin. Alzolay has a 1.08 WHIP. The Cubs have the superior closer by far in Craig Kimbrel.
07-08-21	Royals v. Indians -126		4-7	Win	100	14 h 24 m	Show
Home field matters here. The Royals have lost 24 of their last 31 road games. The Indians have done the job as home favorites winning 40 of the last 58 times in that role. I see that pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Zach Plesac. The veteran Duffy is due for regression with a 2.60 ERA. Duffy's ERA's the previous three years are 4.95, 4.34 and 4.88. Plesac went 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts last year. He's healthy now and should improve on a 4.14 ERA in 10 starts this season. Cleveland has the more reliable bullpen. The Indians have won the last five in this series.
07-07-21	Mercury v. Aces OVER 171.5		99-90	Win	100	8 h 17 m	Show
Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring at 91.8 points per game and in field goal percentage. The Aces have reached at least 90 points in six of their last seven games. Phoenix just surrendered 99 points at home to the Lynx, a middle-of-the-pack scoring team, during its last game. The Over has cashed during six of the past seven meetings between the two teams.
07-07-21	Mercury v. Aces -8.5		99-90	Loss	-112	8 h 16 m	Show
I have to roll with the Aces, who are 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Mercury has some chemistry issues and can't keep up on the boards against the Aces. Phoenix was outrebounded by 15 boards in a 31-point blowout home loss to the Lynx in its last game four days ago. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in rebounds per game at 38.3. Liz Cambage and A'Ja Wilson are combining to average nearly 18 rebounds per game for Las Vegas.
07-07-21	Canadiens v. Lightning -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	18 h 58 m	Show
The plucky Canadiens got their win, nipping the Lightning, 3-2, in overtime two days ago. Montreal regained its self-respect by not getting swept by Tampa Bay. But now the inevitable has arrived for the Canadiens - Game 5 in Tampa Bay. The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning are healthy and at the highest tier. Montreal is nowhere near that status. At best the Canadiens are at least one level, if not two levels, behind the Lightning. The situation is ripe for the Lightning to finish off this series. I'm going to turn a huge lay price into a plus price by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief this is not going to be a close game. Even if it is, the empty net factor looms large with Montreal on the brink of elimination and having nothing to lose. Tampa Bay hasn't lost two playoff games in a row since the opening round of 2019. The Lightning have won 72 percent of their last 69 home games. They also are 8-0 the past eight times hosting Montreal.
07-07-21	A's +140 v. Astros		3-4	Loss	-100	10 h 12 m	Show
I'm attracted to getting a mid-size plus price with a very good Oakland team that is pitching reliable Sean Manaea. Manaea has a 3.13 ERA, which shrinks a little to 3.05 in seven road starts. He has a lifetime 1.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts at Houston. He can be counted on to provide the A's with a strong effort and he's backed by one of the better bullpens. The Astros are countering with rookie Luis Garcia, who has strong overall numbers with a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Garcia, however, has allowed six earned runs during his past two starts spanning 10 innings. He's given up a combined 15 hits/walks in this time frame. This isn't so much a fade on the Astros as it is a value play on Oakland.
07-07-21	Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5		10-2	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
I could start and end this handicap with two words: Matt Harvey. But there's more than just Harvey as to why this should be a higher-scoring game than the oddsmaker believes. Harvey, though, always is a great place to start. He hasn't been good in six years. Yet, somehow, he still keeps getting shots in a big league rotation. It should be just a matter of time before the Orioles pull the plug on Harvey, who is 3-9 with a 7.34 ERA. That ERA gets even worse at 9.15 if you go by just his last five stars. The Blue Jays are the most dangerous offensive team in baseball ranking either first or second in batting average, runs and homers. They have scored 5 or more runs in nine of their last 11 games. The Orioles, though, should do their share of damage. They've produced 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games. Toronto is going with its ace, Hyun-Jin Ryu. The lefty has been cold, though, with a 5.35 ERA in his last six starts. The Orioles are batting .275 versus southpaws, second-highest in the American League. They also have the league's third-highest slugging percentage against lefties. Neither pitcher is going to be helped by the wind blowing out to center at 10 mph. The Under has won just twice during the last 11 meetings between the teams at hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
07-06-21	Rockies +108 v. Diamondbacks		3-4	Loss	-100	16 h 22 m	Show
If there is one team the Rockies can beat on the road it's the Diamondbacks, losers of 50 of their last 58 games and owners of the worst record in baseball. Colorado has the worst road record in baseball. However, Arizona has the lowest home percentage mark with a 13-27 record at Chase Field. The pitching matchup and bullpen favor Colorado with Jon Gray opposing Merrill Kelly. Gray is 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA. He's pitched well in two starts since returning from the injured list giving up two runs in 11 innings with 15 strikeouts. Kelly is 5-7 with a 4.67 ERA. He is 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a terrible bullpen with a 5.23 ERA. Closer Daniel Bard has solidified Colorado's backend relief corps.
07-06-21	Bucks v. Suns -6	Top	105-118	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
This series has a Chris Paul crowning feel to it. The Bucks produced back-to-back great efforts without Giannis Antetokounmpo to eliminate the Hawks with that series finale occurring this past Saturday night in Atlanta. The Suns have had six days to rest and prepare. They are healthy, unlike the Bucks who probably are not going to have Antetokounmpo. Suns coach Monty Williams said his team has practiced well during the wait. Phoenix is 3-0 ATS during the first game of its playoff series. The Bucks are 0-3 ATS in the opening game of each of their playoff series. Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Bucks have failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. I trust the Suns at home to produce the better Game 1 result, enough so to cover this spread. Minus Antetokonumpo, the Suns have the three best players in Paul, Devin Booker and emerging star Deandre Ayton. The Bucks received huge performances from Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez during its last two games against the Hawks. They all stepped up big-time in the absence of Antetokounmpo. The Suns, however, are a much different opponent than the Hawks, who had to make do with a hobbled Trae Young. The Hawks lacked a defensive stopper to deal with Middleton. The Suns have one in veteran Jae Crowder. Paul and his excellent backup point guard, Cameron Payne, rate an edge on Holiday. Keep in mind, Antetokounmpo isn't the only key Buck out with an injury. Milwaukee has been without underrated guard Donte DiVincenzo. He's out for the season with a foot injury and his defense is missed. Ayton rates a huge edge on Lopez, an inconsistent journeyman who can't be trusted to play as well as he has. I can't see the Bucks coming up with a third straight ''A'' game especially given the short turnaround.
07-05-21	Lightning v. Canadiens +144		2-3	Win	144	17 h 37 m	Show
It has been 23 years since there was a Stanley Cup Finals sweep. Tampa Bay has a chance to end that string up 3-0 against Montreal. I don't see it happening, though. The Canadiens are an extremely prideful organization. Montreal has shown tremendous guts and resiliency in reaching the finals especially in knocking off the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights. No doubt the Lightning are the superior team. Certainly not arguing that point. But the Canadiens haven't been dominated in this series even though they've been outscored, 14-5. Montreal has hurt itself with mistakes. The Lightning haven't let the Canadiens get away with that either, taking full advantage. That has been the story of this series. It has been five days since the teams last played. That's a disadvantage to Tampa Bay, which could lose some of its momentum. The Canadiens have had ample time to recover and regroup. I don't know if they can produce an ''A'' level performance against such a strong foe, but I'm certain they will produce an ''A'' level effort. The Lightning aren't nearly in such desperation. They are fat and happy knowing that if they lose they get Montreal at home on Wednesday for Game 5. Subconsciously that could mean a letdown for the Lightning. So I'm going to take a nice home 'dog price backing Montreal.
07-05-21	White Sox -111 v. Twins	Top	5-8	Loss	-111	14 h 20 m	Show
The White Sox are 8-1 against the Twins this season. Chicago just swept three games from Minnesota last week at home. One of those games was a 13-3 victory when the pitching matchup was Dylan Cease versus Bailey Ober. Cease gave up two runs on three hits in six innings during that victory with seven strikeouts. The Twins' run came on homers by Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson. Both of those players didn't play yesterday because of injuries so their status is questionable. Cease is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Ober is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA. The White Sox are 49-34. The Twins are 34-48. This is a clear mismatch. Getting the White Sox at this price is cheap.
07-05-21	Brewers -148 v. Mets		2-4	Loss	-148	14 h 5 m	Show
Once you get past Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman, the Mets are extremely weak and vulnerable in their starting pitching rotation due to injuries. Because of four other starting pitchers being out, the Mets are forced to go with rookie Tylor Megill in their rotation for the time being. Megill, who has a 4.82 ERA, is making just his third big league start. He faces one of the top pitchers in the NL, Brandon Woodruff, who has a 1.87 ERA. Woodruff has faced the Mets twice before going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. The Brewers are 11-1 in their last 12 games. They have beaten the Mets in eight of their past nine meetings. Milwaukee has the fresher bullpen catching the Mets off a Sunday doubleheader against the Yankees in their heated subway rivalry.
07-05-21	Braves -1.5 v. Pirates		1-11	Loss	-112	13 h 16 m	Show
The last time Max Fried took the mound the Braves won, 20-2, against the Mets five days ago. I doubt the Braves win by 18 runs again - although they are playing the Pirates so it's possible - but I do expect them to win by more than a run. Each of the Pirates' last six losses have been by multiple runs. Pittsburgh has scored the grand total of 10 runs in its last seven games! It's no wonder the Pirates rank last in the majors in runs and homers. Fried started slow, but he's a quality starter and is rounding into shape. He has a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts. The same can't be said for Pittsburgh starter Chase DeJong, who is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA. That ERA swells to 6.59 if you take DeJong's last three starts. Atlanta has taken seven of the last eight games from Pittsburgh.