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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-18-20	Twins v. Cubs -125		0-1	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16. The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill. Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts. Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws.
09-17-20	Bengals +6 v. Browns	Top	30-35	Win	100	43 h 16 m	Show
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe.
09-17-20	Lightning v. Islanders +145		2-1	Loss	-100	13 h 39 m	Show
I'm not convinced Tampa Bay has the mental toughness to close out this Eastern Conference finals after losing, 2-1, to the Islanders in double overtime this past Tuesday. That was the Lightning's opportunity. The Islanders still face elimination down 3-2 in the series. But New York is riding house money. The pressure remains on the Lightning. Tampa Bay has been in this situation before - and failed miserably blowing 3-2 series leads in 2016 and 2018 in the Eastern Conference finals. The double overtime win gives the Islanders new-found momentum. New York goalie Semyon Varamov also looked back in good form. The Lightning still could be without Brayden Point, their leading scorer in the playoffs. At this plus price, I'll take a shot with the well-coached, disciplined and mentally tough Islanders. They may not win, but they certainly won't go gently into the night.
09-17-20	Heat v. Celtics -133	Top	106-101	Loss	-133	29 h 35 m	Show
The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks.
09-17-20	Rangers v. Astros -1.5		1-2	Loss	-129	14 h 48 m	Show
The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses.
09-17-20	Mets v. Phillies -121		10-6	Loss	-121	14 h 46 m	Show
I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is.
09-17-20	Diamondbacks v. Angels UNDER 10.5		3-7	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
After a pair of high-scoring games where a combined 32 runs were scored, I'm expecting things to settle down in the finale of this three-game series. It's a rare afternoon start at Angel Stadium, which usually is bad for hitters later in the game when they have more trouble picking up the pitch. Listed starting pitchers are lefty Alex Young versus Griffin Canning. Anthony Rendon is the only Angels hitter who has ever faced Young, and he's 0-for-3 against him. Young has gone back and forth from starting and relieving. He pitched in relief this past Friday giving up two runs on two hits in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle. The Angels are 25th in batting against lefthanded pitchers. Canning is a promising young pitcher who has flashed at times, but needs more consistency. Canning has a similar advantage to Young in that the Diamondbacks don't know him. Jon Jay is Arizona's only player who has ever batted against Canning.
09-16-20	Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5	Top	9-6	Loss	-100	15 h 34 m	Show
An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline.
09-16-20	Royals -125 v. Tigers		4-0	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
The Royals had won six in a row until losing to the Tigers on Tuesday. The price certainly is reasonable to back the Royals in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Tarik Skubal. Singer is coming off his best start shutting out the Indians on one hit in eight innings with eight strikeouts this past Thursday. Singer threw a season-high 119 pitches in that game, but is pitching on five full day's rest. Singer draws a Tigers lineup minus injured second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who was leading the team in homers. Skubal has been terrible this season with a 7.27 ERA.
09-16-20	Red Sox v. Marlins OVER 9		4-8	Win	100	12 h 43 m	Show
Each of these teams should be good for at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of lefties Mike Kickham versus rookie Trevor Rogers. Boston has scored four or more runs in seven of its past nine games. Rogers is set to make just his fifth start. He was bombed by the Phillies in his last outing giving up eight earned runs in three-plus innings last Friday. He has an 8.36 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP during his last three starts. The Red Sox have the fifth highest batting average and are seventh in slugging percentage versus lefthanded pitching. The Marlins' lineup has become far more respectable with the addition of Starling Marte. The Marlins are above average in batting average against southpaws. Kickham will be making just his second big league start since 2013 after going four innings a week ago. The Marlins have scored 4 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games.
09-15-20	Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5		2-1	Loss	-135	16 h 58 m	Show
Anytime the Lightning are involved and the total is less than 5 1/2, I'm automatically attracted to the Over. Moreso, with the Islanders on the brink of playoff elimination where they will be forced to take chances and empty the net if trailing. Tampa Bay has three strong scoring lines. This has been on display because the Lightning have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their past 10 playoff games. The Islanders, who rely on defense and discipline, have yielded three or more goals to Tampa Bay in three of the four games during the series. Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov could be wearing down from the grueling playoffs because his net play has considerably slipped.
09-15-20	Mets v. Phillies +116		1-4	Win	116	13 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies are banged-up with multiple injuries. But I'm attracted to them as a home 'dog in a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello versus Jake Arrieta. I see the veteran Arrieta stepping up in the wake of injuries to starting pitchers Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard. Arrieta has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts. He holds a lifetime 3.17 ERA in 15 starts versus the Mets. Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 12 home games. It's an insult to Cy Young that Porcello once won that award. He may be the worst Cy Young Award winner of all-time. Porcello is nothing more than an innings-eater and not a very good one at that. He's been a major disappointment for the sucker Mets with a 1-4 record and 6.07 ERA. This is the Phillies' third look at Porcello this season. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. The Mets have lost seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Wrong team favored here.
09-15-20	Heat v. Celtics -118	Top	117-114	Loss	-118	35 h 28 m	Show
The Bucks matched up poorly against the Heat. Perhaps also distracted by spearheading a one-game boycott, the Bucks were drummed out of the playoffs by Miami. Credit to the Heat. But now Miami draws a well-focused opponent it doesn't match up well against. The Heat might have grabbed Game 1 in this series with a situational advantage since they are rested while the Celtics had to go the full seven games to eliminate the Raptors. However, the NBA schedulemakers negated that edge for Miami by scheduling this game four days after Boston took out Toronto. That's enough time for the Celtics to rest, recuperate and fully game-plan for Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, last played a full week ago. So they have to deal with a rust factor and lost momentum. The Heat finished 12th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They stepped up defensively against the Bucks. They did that by keying on Giannis Antetokounmpo and gambling that the rest of the Bucks weren't good enough. That worked because the Bucks weren't the same team inside the bubble they were during their dominant regular season when they won 53 of their first 63 games. The Bucks lacked off-the-dribble threats aside from Antetokounmpo. The Celtics have a different makeup. They don't have one superstar. Instead they have several stars - Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum - a strong bench and the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The Celtics actually are going to find scoring easier against the Heat than they did against the Raptors, who had the No. 1 defense in the league. The Celtics are vulnerable to fast backcourts and teams who have multiple shot creators. Aside from Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have that, nor can they match Boston's trio of star power. The Celtics have the needed defensive flexibility, too, that Milwaukee lacked. The Celtics can play up-tempo if it suits their purpose, or handle a half-court game that Miami favors. Prior to this season, the Heat hadn't won a playoff series since 2016. They lack the necessary deep playoff pedigree that Boston has from reaching the conference finals in 2017 and 2018. Upsetting the flawed Bucks has made the Heat overvalued. The money line price is low enough to back the superior Celtics.
09-14-20	Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5	Top	3-2	Push	0	15 h 33 m	Show
The total for each of the first four games of this Western Conference Finals series has been lined at 5 1/2. Each game has gone Under. The oddsmaker has finally adjusted moving the total down to 5. So now is the time to play Over. The Golden Knights are in desperation territory down 3-1. Las Vegas finds itself on the brink of elimination despite outshooting the Stars, 105-67. Dallas backup goalie Anton Khudobin has played well above his head. The Stars realize they can't keep getting lucky winning low-scoring games while relying on Khudobin to bail them out. They have to step up their attack like did when they took out Colorado during their previous series. Dallas averaged four goals per game during that seven-game series. The Stars' power play has managed just one goal. So that is due to change, too. I envision a much more up-tempo game than what we've seen so far in the series. The Golden Knights will be aggressively attacking with all four of their quality lines. This could result in a much higher scoring game for them. If it fails, the total still is very much live to go Over as the Golden Knights won't hesitate to pull their goalie early if down by one goal and keep their goalie on the bench, too, if the Stars score an empty-netter to go up by two goals. This is a scenario that happens when teams face elimination.
09-13-20	Cowboys v. Rams +3	Top	17-20	Win	100	108 h 19 m	Show
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.
09-13-20	Bucs +3.5 v. Saints		23-34	Loss	-104	104 h 16 m	Show
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
09-13-20	Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers		24-20	Win	100	104 h 5 m	Show
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games.
09-13-20	Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45.5		43-34	Loss	-110	101 h 34 m	Show
These two teams know and hate each other. The intensity level is at its peak. It's shown on the defensive end where five of the past six meetings have gone under. This includes both games last season, which had a combined 37 and 33 points, respectively. The Vikings are in double revenge. Minnesota's defensive line usually gives the Packers problems. The Vikings have a top safety tandem in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. Minnesota's defensive weakness are youthful and untested cornerbacks. Defensive guru Mike Zimmer has a history of coaching up cornerbacks, though. Minnesota has a run-oriented conservative offense. Kirk Cousins is not a gunslinger. The Vikings will be staying on the ground. The Packers have switched to that style, too, under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay could be minus Billy Turner, who is its third best offensive lineman. He suffered a knee injury during practice and isn't likely to play. The Packers are thin in the offensive line and have bad receivers behind Davante Adams.
09-13-20	Colts v. Jaguars +9.5		20-27	Win	100	100 h 27 m	Show
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
09-12-20	Golden Knights -1.5 v. Stars		1-2	Loss	-100	14 h 42 m	Show
Dallas leads this Western Conference Finals series 2-1. But the Stars aren't the better team. Las Vegas would have the series lead if Dallas backup goalie Anton Khudobin didn't come up with the game of his life stopping 38 of 40 shots in the Stars' 3-2 overtime victory on Thursday. The Golden Knights have dangerous scoring capability with all four of their lines. They know the importance of jumping in front of the Stars. Dallas is 8-1 in one-goal games during the playoffs and 3-7 in games decided by multiple goals. If the Golden Knights are able get an early lead, I could see that snowballing into a blowout victory. The Stars have reverted back to their conservative, defensive ways of the regular season. Ben Bishop is not in net for them, though. Khudobin is and I don't see him producing a second straight monster game. He's not a spectacular goalies. He's just a solid backup who needs plenty of defense in front of him for protection. This limits the Stars from an offensive perspective. Despite the Game 3 loss, the Golden Knights still have beaten the Stars seven of the past 10 times. The Stars also are 2-8 the past 10 times after giving up 2 or fewer goals during their last game.
09-12-20	Angels v. Rockies -125		5-2	Loss	-125	10 h 48 m	Show
The Angels are a fade away from home with a 6-16 road mark. Going back to last season, the Angels have lost 37 of their last 51 road contests. Now the Angels draw Kyle Freeland, an experienced Coors Park pitcher with a 2.80 ERA when pitching at night. The Angels are going with Jamie Barria, who has much to prove after going 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA last year.
09-12-20	Rockets v. Lakers -6.5	Top	96-119	Win	101	18 h 45 m	Show
The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues.
09-12-20	UTEP +43.5 v. Texas		3-59	Loss	-110	11 h 8 m	Show
There's not much positive to say about UTEP. But the Miners have already played a game, beating Stephen F. Austin, 24-14, last Saturday. It's worth more this season to have played a game with limited off-season workouts. This is the Longhorns' opener. The Longhorns are going to treat this matchup as a glorified scrimmage. It's their lone non-Big 12 game matchup. Texas isn't going to waste much energy running up a score on UTEP, while the Miners want to keep things respectable in order to bolster their confidence and improve in-state recruiting. The Longhorns just want to get some rust off their starters and then get their reserves in so nobody important gets hurt. Texas being home actually helps the underdog with this large of a spread because the Longhorns can dress more players than they normally could if they were traveling.
09-12-20	Houston Baptist +41 v. Texas Tech		33-35	Win	100	11 h 35 m	Show
Houston Baptist was one of the teams that played last week. That's an advantage for the Huskies because Texas Tech has yet to see action. The Red Raiders have a very good QB in Alan Bowman. But he hasn't seen action in a year due to a broken collarbone. The Red Raiders are breaking in two new offensive tackles so they want to be careful that Bowman doesn't get hurt again. If Texas Tech jumps to a big early lead it would be risky and foolish to keep Bowman on the field. Houston Baptist isn't going to hold Texas Tech in check. But the Huskies can produce points behind a high-volume, spread offense that their offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, learned during his time as an assistant coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsburgy. The Red Raiders had one of the worst pass defenses last season.
09-12-20	UTSA v. Texas State -6.5		51-48	Loss	-110	7 h 32 m	Show
Both teams were awful last season. Texas State looks improved, though, in its second year under Jake Spavital. The Bobcats hung in against SMU last week, losing 31-24, as 24 1/2-point home 'dogs. Memphis transfer Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's for the Bobcats. Texas State's offense looked much sharper with Spavital taking over the play-calling duties. SMU has a strong offense. Yet the Bobcats were able to come up with three turnovers and forced the Mustangs to punt three times. Now Texas State drops way down in class. Not only is UTSA a bad team - ranking 117th in points and 112th in giving up points last year - but it hasn't played yet. The Roadrunners have a new coaching staff under Jeff Traylor. Don't look for Traylor to get off to a promising start. His team has had to deal with a coronavirus outbreak with a number of players ruled out for this game because of it.
09-11-20	Celtics -126 v. Raptors	Top	92-87	Win	100	20 h 36 m	Show
First it was OG Anunoby with a 3-pointer at the buzzer and then it was Norman Powell coming up big in two overtimes in Game 6. We've reached Game 7 now in this series and Toronto is out of lives. The stars shine in Game 7 - and the Celtics hold the aces with Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Toronto was outstanding in Wednesday's Game 6. The Celtics weren't yet the game still went in double overtime. The Raptors also got to shoot seven more free throws in that contest. Toronto also made 41.3 percent of its 3-point shots. The Raptors hadn't hit 40 percent of their 3-point shots all series. Boston's bench and Walker are capable of far better than they showed in Game 6. The Celtics are 17-9-1 (65 percent) off a loss. They also have covered seven of their 10 playoff games with an average victory margin of eight points. I respect the heck out of the Raptors. But I want the Celtics going for me in this Game 7.
09-11-20	Lightning v. Islanders +140		3-5	Win	140	12 h 22 m	Show
No, the Islanders may not be nearly as talented as Tampa Bay. But the Islanders are extremely well-coached and have proven resilient since play resumed. New York outshot the Lightning, 28-21, and had numerous missed scoring opportunities in a 2-1 Game 2 loss. So I don't see the Islanders quietly going in the night down 0-2 in the series. They are in must-win territory and draw Tampa Bay minus suspended right winger Alex Killorn and likely without injured center Brayden Point, too. Killorn had the team's third-most goals during the regular season and Point was Tampa Bay's No. 1 playoff points producer. The Islanders have the defense and discipline to get back into this series. The last time the Lightning had been held to as few as 21 shots on goal was March 3.
09-11-20	Tigers v. White Sox -1.5		3-4	Loss	-135	12 h 34 m	Show
The pitching matchup, spot and huge talent edge all are set up here for the White Sox. I want to get involved with the White Sox and the best way to do that is cut the monster juice down by playing them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Detroit is playing for the ninth time in seven days. This is the Tigers' fourth different venue during this span. Their bullpen, not good to begin with, carries a heavy fatigue rating. The White Sox, by contrast, are rested, refreshed and confident. They enjoyed a day off on Thursday while the Tigers had to play a road doubleheader against the Cardinals. Lucas Giolito is one of the elite pitchers in the American League. He's been dominant in his last three starts at Guaranteed Rate Field with a 1.71 ERA. The Tigers are going with rookie Casey Mize, who the White Sox just saw on Aug. 19. Chicago got to Mize for three runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Mize is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he's being force-fed this season. His ERA is 6.75 in four starts.
09-10-20	Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5	Top	20-34	Loss	-103	59 h 55 m	Show
Deshaun Watson is one of the few quarterbacks who can trade points with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' high-powered offense. The Texans put up 31 points in both meetings against the Chiefs last season. Watson is at his best when the Texans are in comeback mode and not trying to establish their feeble ground attack. They certainly figure to be trailing in this game. Kansas City has a strong pass rush, but a very inexperienced and vulnerable secondary. The Chiefs find themselves in this spot because Bashaud Breeland, their most experienced and best cornerback, is suspended for the first four games. Here's a telling quote from Chiefs general manager Brett Veach: "With Bashaud Breeland being out four weeks, we're all aware there could be some growing pains and some lumps along the way," he said about his team's secondary. The Chiefs have the best attack in football - and are healthy. They are upgraded at tailback, too, with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire a starter. Mahomes spearheaded the Chiefs to seven straight touchdowns in Kansas City's 51-31 playoff victory against the Texans. Houston's defense has not improved this season. If anything it has gotten worse.
09-10-20	Golden Knights v. Stars UNDER 5.5		2-3	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
There is high juice attached to taking the Under here. And for good reason. There have been a combined four goals scored during the first two games of this Western Conference Final. The Stars have reverted back to their style of play they used during the regular season, which is stressing defense being conservative. It worked in Game 1 when they won, 1-0. The Stars aren't panicking after losing, 3-0, in Game 2. They are going to stick to their defensive formula. They need to protect backup goalie Anton Khudobin and don't want to get into an up-and-down type of shooting match with Las Vegas and leave Khudobin vulnerable. The Golden Knights are the better team. They have no reason to take chances. The Stars are cold - 117 minutes and 24 seconds without a goal - and Las Vegas' has by far the superior goalie, Robin Lehner. He has the fifth-highest postseason save percentage in NHL history and is looking to be the first goalie since 2004 to record five shutouts during a single playoff year.
09-10-20	UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL		14-31	Loss	-115	31 h 44 m	Show
I don't understand why the oddsmaker respects Miami so much in this matchup. I don't see the Hurricanes, a middle-of-the-road ACC team, as being 2-touchdowns superior to UAB, perhaps the best team in Conference USA. The Blazers have a strong defense, particularly versus the pass, and return 10 starters on offense. They have won 28 games during the past three seasons. Very important to note here, too, is UAB has played a game. The Blazers beat Central Arkansas, 45-35, last Thursday. That score was misleading considering the Blazers' domination. This is Miami's first game. The Hurricanes couldn't practice in the spring. They are switching to a spread offense featuring D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston. King has a big name, but he's one of the more overrated players in my view. I see the Hurricanes struggling against this defense, hurt by not having enough time and practice to learn a new offense and quarterback. Miami's home field advantage is narrowed, too, because there will be limited fan capacity.
09-10-20	Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5		110-100	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
Now up 2-1 in the series, the Lakers smell blood. Stifling defense is the Lakers' ticket to beating the Rockets. It's something the Lakers are well aware of since they did it during the fourth quarter in each of their Game 2 and Game 3 victories. Houston is averaging 205 1/2 points during the past two games. The Rockets managed just 20 points in the fourth quarter during the last game. The Lakers are more than capable of playing elite defense. They ranked third in defensive efficiency and fourth in fewest points allowed during the regular season. The Rockets won the first game of this series still pumped and with adrenaline flowing after getting past Oklahoma City in seven games. But the Rockets have hit a fourth quarter wall running out of gas. Houston coach Mike D'Antoni admitted his team's legs got tired in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are the more fatigued team. The Rockets had a day off before Game 3. They'll have a day off before this Game 4. But their tiredness, energy and execution aren't going to be fully restored this late in the bubble with just one day of being idle. The Under has cashed 12 of the past 15 times the Rockets have played with one day's rest. The perception is the Rockets are just all about offense with James Harden and Russell Westbrook spearheading a smallball attack. That's misleading. The Rockets were middle-of-the-pack defensively. The Rockets are the smallest team in the league by design. But the Lakers aren't going to kill Houston inside because Frank Vogel believes LA's best lineup is a small one, too. There wasn't any Dwight Howard in Game 3. There are going to be plenty of 3-point shots. But the Rockets aren't accurate shooters. Both teams also are strong defending against shots from beyond the arc, each ranking in the top eight in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The teams haven't been up-tempo either. The pace has been slow. That's a key factor that can't be overlooked in making this Under work.
09-10-20	Red Sox v. Rays OVER 9		4-3	Loss	-114	13 h 29 m	Show
Boston's Mike Kickham is making his first big league start since 2013. He has a 2.00 WHIP and probably will be lucky to last three innings. It's debatable if Kickham is even a major leaguer. He hasn't been one in seven years. The Rays are batting just .195 during their last five games. But they're likely to halt their offensive woes getting to face Kickham and a bad Boston bullpen. The Rays have left an average of nearly seven on base during their past five games. I see them continuing to get baserunners, but this time driving them in. That was the case when the teams met last month. The Rays swept the Red Sox in a four-game series at Fenway Park averaging 10.5 runs and batting .364 with nine homers. Boston should do its part by helping this total go Over. The Red Sox face lefty Josh Fleming, who will be making his fourth big league start. Fleming has been solid with a 3.52 ERA. He's been fortunate, though, to face the Marlins twice. Miami is a below average offensive team. The Red Sox have the league's sixth-highest batting average versus southpaws and also rank in the top nine in slugging percentage and OPS against lefties.
09-09-20	Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics	Top	125-122	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors.
09-09-20	Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8		19-0	Win	100	7 h 38 m	Show
Matthew Boyd has been a little better lately, but the lefty still is having a horrible season with a 6.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Boyd has been stung by the long ball surrendering 11 homers. The Brewers are way overdue to get their struggling offense going. Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun and Avisail Garcia are far more accomplished hitters than what their statistics show. The Brewers have been more effective against southpaws, though, ranking in the top 10 against them in several of the metric categories such as slugging percentage, OPS and OBP. Milwaukee is going with Corbin Burnes. He's pitched well during his past couple of outings. But I'm not sold. He's given up 19 walks in 38 1/3 innings. The Tigers rank in the top 13 in batting average and runs.
09-08-20	Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks		10-9	Loss	-135	18 h 41 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' white flag is flying high. Arizona is 2-17 in its last 19 games! The Diamondbacks are 0-11 the past 11 times facing a righthanded starter and now draw Walker Buehler. Buehler has given up one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this frame. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Diamondbacks have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They are playing a lot of youngsters who just aren't very good. Luke Weaver also was a good young pitcher - until he got hurt. Weaver has yet to prove he can return to form. He's 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has yielded eight homers in 32 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and runs scored.
09-08-20	Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
The Golden Knights have picked a bad time to have their offense go cold. Las Vegas has managed just four goals in its last four games. The Golden Knights have scored just two goals when a goalie was in net during their last 240 minutes - and none of those goals was scored by a forward or center. The Golden Knights have scored two or fewer goals in seven of their last 11 games if you don't include a pair of empty net goals in their Game 7 victory against the Canucks. The Stars can play up-tempo as they showed against the Avalanche, or revert back to their natural, conservative defensive style. That's what they did in Game 1 of this series in defeating Las Vegas, 1-0. I expect the Stars to stick to their natural style knowing how cold the Golden Knights' forwards are. Dallas prefers a tight-checking methodical game especially when Anton Khudobin is in net. The Stars know how important it is to protect Khudobin. A quote from Golden Knights coach Peter DeBoer is telling. This is what he was quoted as saying following Game 1: "...They (the Stars) play a hard, heavy game. They make you work for your offense. This is going to be a different series, and we're going to have to get our head around that and find a way to create offense. It's not going to look or feel like the Chicago series or the Vancouver series."
09-08-20	Heat -144 v. Bucks	Top	103-94	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
Maybe the Bucks rise above the ashes and stay alive in this series. Milwaukee avoided a painful 4-0 sweep by winning Game 4 in overtime despite missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for nearly the last three quarters. That was a great team effort by the Bucks. But I also see it as their lone highlight of this series. The Bucks are not going to win this game because of three major reasons: 1. Miami is a nightmare matchup for them. 2. Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play because of a sprained ankle. If he does, he'll be severely hobbled. 3. Milwaukee's mental frame is shot due to a loss of confidence and lack of focus that was caused by leading the boycott following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in its home state. Jimmy Butler is now the best player on the court with Antetokounmpo ailing. The Heat are able to exploit the Bucks' perimeter defense while their own defensive strength takes away Milwaukee's strong offensive elements of scoring off the fast break and scoring inside. The Heat gave up the fewest fastbreak points in the league and ranked in the Top 5 in defense inside the paint. Butler and Bam Adebayo are two of the premier defensive players in the NBA. These matchup edges have helped the Heat beat the Bucks in five of seven meetings this season. Now the Heat smell blood. The Bucks aren't right in the head and the great Giannis is hurt. Too bad for Milwaukee because up until the season was put on hold, the Bucks were the best team in the league. That certainly is not the case now.
09-07-20	Clippers v. Nuggets +9		113-107	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers.
09-07-20	Islanders +138 v. Lightning		2-8	Loss	-100	16 h 22 m	Show
What we have here is a unique situation. The Islanders just concluded a seven-game series with the Flyers that finished Saturday night. The Lightning, by contrast, haven't played in a week. I'm going to ride the Islanders' adrenaline and 3-0 record in Game 1 series against the Panthers, Capitals and Flyers at this plus price against Tampa Bay's long rest. The Lightning are the better team, but the Islanders have the momentum to take this Game 1 especially given that Tampa Bay is likely to be highly rusty. The Islanders are a frustrating team for the opposition because they are defensive-minded, disciplined and well-coached. These factors are big on the Islanders getting this far, but their offense also has stepped up. The Islanders are averaging 3.38 goals since the league resumed. That figure would have ranked fourth in the league if computed out during the entire season. New York scored 3 or more goals in each of their seven games against the Flyers.
09-07-20	Diamondbacks -105 v. Giants		2-4	Loss	-105	12 h 13 m	Show
The only thing that can get me on the Diamondbacks these days is a pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Kevin Gausman. Gallen is great. Gausman is terrible. So at this price, I'm holding my nose and taking the Diamondbacks. Gallen is looking to extend his major league record of allowing three or fewer runs to begin a career to 24. He has a 1.80 ERA on the season. Gallen has been at his finest, too, during his last four starts with a 1.00 ERA. He is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts versus the Giants. Gausman is having another typical Gausman year with a 4.43 ERA.
09-07-20	Celtics -105 v. Raptors	Top	111-89	Win	100	16 h 17 m	Show
The Celtics have more star power than Toronto, are deeper and have the best coach in the Eastern Conference if not all of the NBA in Brad Stevens. OK, so then why is this series tied 2-2? A miracle 3-point play with one-half second left in Game 3 and Boston missing 35 of 42 3-point shots in Game 4 are the reasons. Toronto plays outstanding defense. But the Celtics missed 22 of 27 uncontested looks from beyond the arc in the last game. I expect the Celtics to make a much higher percentage and for stars Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to play much better in this Game 5. The Celtics are due to bring their "A" game. Even if that doesn't happen, though, I like the Celtics' depth as the series goes deeper and fatigue becomes more of a factor.
09-07-20	Phillies -110 v. Mets		9-8	Win	100	6 h 35 m	Show
Zack Wheeler gets up for the Mets more than any other team. Wheeler was a mainstay in the Mets' rotation the previous two seasons, but was highly disappointed when the Mets let him walk in free agency without ever making an offer. Wheeler landed with the Phillies and has thrived going 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA. He beat the Mets in mid-August, 6-2, allowing two runs on six hits in seven innings. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who has yet to make his mark. Philadelphia has won the past seven times it was favored.
09-06-20	Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5		7-6	Loss	-135	13 h 37 m	Show
The Rockies upset the Dodgers, 5-2, on Saturday. Prior to that game, the Dodgers were 17-1 at home versus Colorado. It has been 23 games since the Dodgers last dropped two straight games. LA has followed its last three defeats by crushing the opposition by at least five runs each time. The price is huge here as it should be with Julio Urias facing Ryan Castellani followed by by Chi Chi Gonzalez as the Rockies are treating this as a bullpen game. So laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line makes plenty of sense. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They aren't going to lack for offense against these stiff pitchers and Colorado's bullpen. LA starter Julio Urias is another one of the Dodgers' high-caliber young pitchers. He's coming off an excellent outing against the Diamondbacks giving up one run on four hits in six innings with no walks and five strikeouts this past Tuesday.
09-06-20	Rockets v. Lakers -5.5	Top	109-117	Win	100	20 h 7 m	Show
Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again.
09-06-20	Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5		1-0	Loss	-125	31 h 46 m	Show
The Golden Knights should be good for at least three goals against Dallas. Las Vegas has scored 3 or more goals in 12 of its last 17 games. The Golden Knights have four scoring lines and fired the most shots on goal of any team in the NHL. Las Vegas should also find it easier to score facing Dallas' 33-year-old back-up goalie Anton Khudobin than it did against Vancouver's hot rookie goalie Thatcher Demko. Khudobin has a 2.94 goals against average since the restart. The Stars have given up 30 or more shots on goal in eight of their last 10 games. Dallas has gone Over the total in seven of its last eight games. The Stars have completely changed the way they played during the regular season going from a defensive-minded conservative style to wide open using their defensemen to attack and force the action. Miko Heiskanen has especially thrived playing this way. He has the second-most playoff points. If you discount a one-goal performance in Game 6 against the Avalanche, the Stars are averaging 4.8 goals in their last seven games. Las Vegas and Dallas met during the round robin on Aug. 3. The Golden Knights won that game, 5-3.
09-06-20	Diamondbacks v. Giants -129		2-4	Win	100	14 h 16 m	Show
You can see the white flag all the way from Arizona. The Diamondbacks are complete fade material. They are in rebuild mode and have lost 15 of their last 17 games. The price is right to back the much-better hitting Giants and Johnny Cueto, who is 11-3 lifetime with a 3.03 ERA in 17 career starts versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. Arizona is pitching Alex Young. He's a converted reliever who could be heading back to the bullpen after this start. He's 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA.
09-06-20	White Sox -1.5 v. Royals		8-2	Win	100	5 h 33 m	Show
The Royals are reshuffling their rotation saying they are going to start Matt Harvey today. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Harvey has no business on any big league team's starting rotation. He's yet to pitch more than three innings and has a 14.09 ERA. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chicago is a much better team than Kansas City and going for the sweep here. The White Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 road games and 8-1 in their last nine games against the Royals. Kansas City has dropped five in a row. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 17 of their last 18 victories have been by two or more runs. This could be a final chance to fade Harvey so I'm going to take it.
09-05-20	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5		5-2	Loss	-106	16 h 42 m	Show
The Rockies rank in the top nine in runs and batting average. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They draw a struggling German Marquez. But what really seals this being a strong totals play is Alfonso Marquez being the home plate umpire. There is no stronger Over umpire. The Over has cashed 77 percent of the time during the last 43 games Marquez has been behind the plate. He's called the fewest strikes of any umpire in each of the last three years. Marquez and a bad Rockies bullpen should do their part, too, in getting this total Over. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .348 against him with a .652 slugging percentage during this time frame. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has pitched great in limited action so far. His 0.51 ERA, though, is unsustainable. His metrics point to severe regression.
09-05-20	White Sox -1.5 v. Royals		5-3	Win	100	14 h 36 m	Show
The White Sox are 12-0 versus lefty starters this season. They have a mismatch in today's game with Lucas Giolito facing southpaw Kris Bubic. Giolito has become one of the better pitchers in the league. He has a 3.14 ERA. Bubic has a 5.46 ERA. The Royals are 0-5 in Bubic's five starts this year. The White Sox destroy lefthanded pitching. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.574) and highest OPS (.954) in the majors versus lefties. Chicago also is batting a second-best .303 against southpaws. Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 road games and has beaten the Royals in seven of the past eight games. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 16 of their last 17 victories have been by two or more runs.
09-05-20	Raptors v. Celtics +1	Top	100-93	Loss	-106	17 h 42 m	Show
It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark.
09-04-20	Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	19 h 27 m	Show
The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored.
09-04-20	Marlins v. Rays -125		4-5	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
This price is within reason to get involved with the Rays. Miami has been a surprising 16-16 this season, but the Rays are an elite team especially at home. The Rays are 14 games above .500 this season. They have won 71 percent of their past 51 home games going back to last year. Tropicana Park is an unusual venue for opposing teams. One reason for this is artificial turf. The Marlins have lost 18 of the last 26 times they've played on astroturf. Miami starter righty Pablo Lopez has been surprisingly good this season with a 2.10 ERA. The Rays just saw him six days ago, winning that game, 4-0. The Rays are 19-7 versus righty starters this season. Tampa Bay is starting southpaw Josh Fleming. He also has been surprisingly good carrying a 1.74 ERA through his first two big league starts. He pitched against the Marlins last Saturday and held them scoreless on three hits in 5 1/3 innings. Miami is 3-8 versus lefty starters on the year. The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games. This includes a 3-game road sweep of the Marlins. Tampa Bay outscored Miami, 18-7, in that series.
09-04-20	Stars +116 v. Avalanche		5-4	Win	116	11 h 57 m	Show
Despite a slew of injuries, Colorado has won the last two games in this Western Conference Stanley Cup semifinal to force today's Game 7. The Avalanche have momentum. But I want the Stars going for me considering how banged-up Colorado is and how important this game is for the future of Dallas' organization. This is the situation the Avalanche are in: They likely will be without captain Gabriel Landeskog, a member of their top line. They also likely will be missing Erik Johnson, one of their top-four defensemen along with three other plays who provide depth, which is important at this late stage. But worse of all for the Avalanche is they probably will be missing starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and his top backup, Pavel Francouz. That would put journeyman third-stringer Michael Hutchinson back in goal. The Stars don't need to play their "A" game to beat Hutchinson, who I consider one of the worst backup goalies in the NHL. Credit to Hutchinson for allowing a total of four goals in the last two games. Dallas, though, managed only 15 shots during the last two periods of Game 6. The Stars' top line of Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov and Tyler Seguin have managed just one point during the last two games. They are much better than that, especially going against Hutchinson and a Colorado defense that isn't as good as the Stars' No. 2 ranked defense. The ramifications could be huge for the Stars if they lose this game and thus blow a 3-1 series lead. Interim coach Rick Bowness probably won't be back. The roster could be gutted, too, with the team's aging veterans sent packing in abysmal failure.
09-03-20	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5		1-5	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
The Diamondbacks gave it a great try Wednesday night against the Dodgers, but fell one run short in losing for the 12th time in 13 games. That was with Arizona pitching its ace, Zack Gallen. Now the Diamondbacks draw Dodgers ace, a rejuvenated and healthy lefty Clayton Kershaw. Demoralized by giving up four veterans at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks aren't likely to offer much resistance after blowing an extra inning lead last night. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 28-10. Kershaw is back in dominant form going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 33-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season in 30 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging two runs per game in their last four games. They are 1-8 on the season versus southpaw starters, which isn't surprising since they are batting .227 against lefties and rank third-from-last in MLB in slugging percentage against lefthanders. LA leads the majors in homers and are second in runs. So Luke Weaver, who has been up and down on the comeback trail, is facing a major challenge. Weaver did not pitch well in his last start against the much-weaker hitting Giants. Weaver surrendered four earned runs on eight hits in three innings.
09-03-20	White Sox -135 v. Royals		11-6	Win	100	15 h 42 m	Show
The White Sox are 22-15. The Royals are 14-23. So these teams are playing out to their projections. The White Sox, with a boatload of young talent, were expected to make a major step while the Royals remain dregs. A big part of Chicago's success is its 11-0 record against lefthanded starters. The Royals are pitching lefty Danny Duffy. The White Sox are batting .303 versus southpaws, second-highest in the league. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.571) and highest OPS (.948) against lefties. Chicago just saw Duffy six days ago. The White Sox got to him for four runs (three earned) on seven hits, including two homers, in 5 2/3 innings. Duffy has a 5.60 career ERA versus the White Sox when pitching at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City draws highly-promising Dylan Cease, who displayed his vast potential finishing August by going 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 26 strikeouts in six starts. Cease may not have to deal with the Royals' most feared slugger as Jorge Soler left yesterday's game with an oblique irritation.
09-03-20	Flyers v. Islanders -115	Top	5-4	Loss	-115	16 h 0 m	Show
These two teams are very similar, stressing defense and discipline. Except the Islanders are the better team. The Flyers barely held off elimination by nipping the Islanders in overtime two days ago. I see the Islanders closing the series out now in their second try just like they did against the Capitals and Panthers. Except for the opening period in Game 3 and the second period in Game 5, the Islanders have gotten the better of Philadelphia. The Flyers were outscored by the Canadiens during their previous Stanley Cup series and I don't believe they can step up enough to force a Game 7 against the extremely sound and well-coached Islanders, who are playing their best hockey. The Islanders have defeated the Flyers in seven of their past nine meetings.
09-03-20	Raptors -108 v. Celtics		104-103	Win	100	16 h 25 m	Show
It's not a surprise the Celtics lead the Raptors 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Series. Boston has shot 44.7 percent from the floor, while Toronto is hitting just 38.5 percent of its field goals. The Raptors have made only 26.3 percent of their 3-point shots. The positive for the Raptors is they have played their trademark strong defense. The series could be tied 1-1 if Toronto didn't blow a 12-point second half lead. But so far Boston's stars have outshined Toronto's top players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet all need to step up. Nick Nurse has to make adjustments because this is where the Raptors really miss Kawhi Leonard. I see this happening. The Raptors don't have the Celtics' star power even with Boston missing Gordon Hayward. But I do expect the Raptors to step up and be smarter with their shots. Nurse has proven he's an above average coach and Toronto should play with super intensity down 0-2 in the series. Toronto's problems have been on offense not defense. So they are correctable.
09-02-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 218.5		102-104	Win	100	14 h 8 m	Show
There are multiple superstars involved in this game. But look for defense to carry the day. There were a combined 194 points scored in Game 5 of this series. The Thunder-Rockets combined for 204 points in Game 6. Now we've reached Game 7 where the intensity should be at its peak. So I'm not expecting a scoring explosion, nor an up-temp, fast-paced game. The Rockets have a history of not producing their expected total during the later stages of a series. The Under has cashed 79 percent of the past 28 times the Rockets have played Games 5 through 7 in the postseason. Houston thrives on firing up 3-point shots. Only two teams ranked higher than Oklahoma City in 3-point field goal percentage defense.
09-02-20	Avalanche v. Stars OVER 6		4-1	Loss	-113	13 h 57 m	Show
There's only one way to play the total on this series - and it's certainly not Under. Colorado and Dallas have averaged 8.6 goals per game during the first five games of this Stanley Cup series. There haven't been fewer than seven goals scored in any game. The Over has won each time. It's clear the Stars are comfortable playing up-tempo, which is how the Avalanche prefers it. Various players are stepping up in huge ways on offense and the goaltending has been putrid. The Avalanche are down to ineffective backup goalies, while the Stars trotted out Ben Bishop for the first time since Aug. 13. An obviously rusty and perhaps not-100 percent healthy Bishop surrendered four goals in the first period before getting the hook. Bishop was making only his fourth appearance since March 10. Dallas has gone Over seven straight times. Colorado has gone Over in six of its last seven games. So I see no reason not to continue to ride the Over wave.
09-02-20	Nationals -114 v. Phillies	Top	0-3	Loss	-114	12 h 7 m	Show
This is a low price to get an elite starter versus a No. 3 type pitcher with Max Scherzer facing Zach Wheeler. Scherzer may be past his prime, but he's still a dominant Tier 1 pitcher. He has a 3.86 ERA after a bad stretch. The buy sign is back on him, though, after his last performance. Scherzer gave up one run on six hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in six innings against the Red Sox this past Friday. Scherzer said he tweaked his mechanics and that made a difference. Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies. This includes a 5-0 mark with a 2.40 ERA at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. This isn't a huge fade on Wheeler, who has pitched well this season. He's just not in the class of Scherzer and the Phillies have a worse bullpen than the Nationals. Wheeler also has a bad history versus the Nationals with a 5-10 record and 5.01 ERA in 18 starts.
09-01-20	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5		3-6	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
Dealing Starling Marte, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley, the Diamondbacks have hoisted up the white flag for 2020. The Dodgers should be able to take full advantage being 26-10 and having just broken the National League for homers in a month. The Dodgers are even more dangerous with the NL now using the DH. The Diamondbacks are throwing Alex Young, a fill-in replacement for injured Madison Bumgarner. Young has a 4.70 ERA. The Dodgers should overwhelm Young and the Diamondbacks' bullpen. Julio Urias is another one of those young top of the line pitching prospects for the Dodgers. Urias has a lifetime 2.08 ERA versus Arizona in four appearances. The Dodgers have won by multiple runs in seven of their last eight victories.
09-01-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 218	Top	78-80	Win	100	23 h 4 m	Show
The Over has cashed in five of the six games during this series. So why go against the grain now and play Under? There are several reasons starting with that these are a pair of top-11 defenses and neither team is up-tempo. There have been an average of 93.5 possessions per game during the series - the slowest pace of any playoff series. However, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been on fire and the teams have been shooting and scoring above their norm. Now we have Game 7. If there ever is going to be defensive intensity and pressure it will come in this game. There's also a new name in the mix - Nuggets guard Gary Harris. He's back healthy and an excellent defender.
09-01-20	Rangers v. Astros -1.5		6-5	Loss	-139	9 h 39 m	Show
In Framber Valdez I trust. Valdez has emerged as a dependable starter for the Astros posting a 2.35 ERA. He's coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Angels. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 during his last three starts with a 2.61 ERA during this span and 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. The Rangers are 2-12 in their last 14 games. They also have lost in their last nine road games against the Astros. This is almost a give-up game for the Rangers as they have made it a bullpen game. Luis Garcia is supposed to be the first victim up. He has a 5.40 ERA. He's likely to be followed by equally ineffective Jordan Lyles, who has a 9.25 ERA.
09-01-20	Indians -1.5 v. Royals		10-1	Win	100	9 h 35 m	Show
Zach Plesac is a promising young pitcher with much to prove in this start. He hasn't pitched since Aug. 8 because he violated team protocol. Plesac was looking good this season with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. He is 3-0 lifetime versus the Royals with a 2.11 ERA in four career outings. The other half of this handicap is a fade on washed-up Matt Harvey, who hasn't made it past the third inning in either of his two starts this season. He has an 11.12 ERA. I'm surprised he's still in a starting rotation. Cleveland has won 10 of its last 12 away games and is 13-5 during the past 18 meetings against the Royals.
09-01-20	Islanders v. Flyers +109		3-4	Win	109	17 h 19 m	Show
I'm not saying the Flyers are the superior team to the Islanders. I just don't see this series ending in five games. I see Philadelphia extending the series to at least six games. The Flyers won Game 2 and then lost 3-1 and 3-2 during the last two games. Philadelphia has proven resilient all season. The Flyers are 40-18 when playing on one day's rest and until Game 4 had bounced back from every postseason defeat with a victory. The Flyers dominated the second period of Game 4 and outshot the Islanders in that contest, 38-33.
08-31-20	Bruins v. Lightning -113		2-3	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
Don't step in front of the Lightning. Tampa Bay is smelling blood as it seeks redemption from being swept in the first round of the Stanley Cup last season after dominating the regular season. The Lightning have won three in a row against the Bruins after losing the first game. The Lightning have smashed the Bruins outscoring them, 10-2, during the past three games. Backup goalie Jaroslav Halak hasn't been up to the task of stopping the Lightning's high-powered attack. The Bruins haven't matched up well to the Lightning during the past few seasons losing 14 of the last 17 games.
08-31-20	Heat +5.5 v. Bucks	Top	115-104	Win	100	17 h 30 m	Show
The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
08-30-20	Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 5.5		5-3	Win	100	13 h 22 m	Show
I definitely can see each team putting up three goals in this matchup. The Canucks lack the defense to stop the Golden Knights, who have produced 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games and go four lines deep. The Canucks' top two lines can do plenty of damage with their youth, talent and skating ability. Vancouver showed that in Game 2 winning 5-2 before getting some bad luck in Game 3. This is a back-to-back spot. However, the teams should have gas left since they were idle Wednesday through Friday. Vancouver's talented offense and below average defense has resulted in the Over going 21-10-1 during its last 32 games.
08-30-20	Flyers v. Islanders -121		2-3	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
Don't underestimate the intensity and killer attitude of the Islanders to take out opponents during these Stanley Cup playoffs. The Islanders took out Washington, a team with far more firepower than Philadelphia, in five games during the first round while the Flyers were being outscored and struggling with the inferior Canadiens. Now the Flyers are down 2-1 in the series to the forechecking, disciplined Islanders. The Islanders play the Flyers' type of game except better. Philadelphia has scored just 16 goals in nine Stanley Cup games, an average of less than two goals per game. The Islanders have outplayed the Flyers for the past five periods. So I see no compelling reason not to stick with them.
08-30-20	Clippers v. Mavs +10.5	Top	111-97	Loss	-110	14 h 53 m	Show
Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it.
08-30-20	Pirates v. Brewers OVER 8.5		5-1	Loss	-103	9 h 18 m	Show
Playing the Pirates brings out the best in Milwaukee's offense. The Brewers have scored 16 runs in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee should be in line for another big scoring outburst facing Steve Brault, who has a 4.80 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has a 4.11 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't been the ace the Brewers envisioned this season. Woodruff also could be distracted as he's leaving the team following this game because his wife is giving birth. CB Bucknor is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 21-13 (62 percent) the past 34 times Bucknor has been behind the plate.
08-30-20	Nationals +101 v. Red Sox		5-9	Loss	-100	9 h 40 m	Show
Austin Voth is off to a slow start after showing promise last year. He has a 6.65 ERA. Voth is better than he has shown. Voth, though, still is better than Red Sox starter Zack Godley, who has been Godley awful. He's 0-3 with a 7.29 ERA. The Nationals are familiar with Godley having faced him when he pitched for the Diamondbacks. Godley has a 5.53 career ERA versus the Nationals in 40 2/3 innings. Godley doesn't go deep into games either. That's going to be a real problem. The Red Sox have a terrible bullpen and their best relievers have fatigue issues.
08-30-20	Twins -1.5 v. Tigers		2-3	Loss	-124	8 h 16 m	Show
I want the Twins and Kenta Maeda going for me after the Tigers swept a doubleheader from Minnesota on Saturday. How rare was Detroit sweeping? The Twins had won 68 percent of their last 60 games as a road favorite. The Tigers are 11-51 in their last 62 home games against a righty starter. Maeda has been highly consistent. He's 4-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. He's in great form, too, with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are going with their prize rookie Casey Mize. He has a monster upside, but right now he's a work-in-progress. Mize has a 7.04 ERA and hasn't reached the fifth inning in either of his first two starts.
08-29-20	Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6		3-0	Loss	-107	20 h 42 m	Show
The Canucks' two top lines showed their talent and speed being instrumental in Vancouver's 5-2 Game 2 victory on Tuesday. Vancouver has the offense to do that to foes. The Canucks aren't so strong on the defensive end. It's why the Over is 21-9-1 in Vancouver's last 31 games. The Golden Knights have scored 4 or more goals in eight of their last 11 games since hockey resumed. The Golden Knights won Game 1 of the series, 5-0, and have the depth to dominate when third and fourth lines are skating. Both teams should be fully fresh after getting extra rest time with the postponement of Thursday's game until Saturday. The Over has cashed four of the past five times the teams have met.
08-29-20	Giants v. Diamondbacks -135		5-2	Loss	-135	15 h 59 m	Show
Arizona has been underachieving and Luke Weaver is on the comeback trail. But I see a buy sign on both of them today. The Diamondbacks halted an eight-game losing streak beating the Giants, 7-4, on Friday. That should stop the Diamondbacks from pressing and raise their confidence level. Weaver was on track to become one of the better young pitchers in baseball before an injury derailed him. But he's looked good in his last two starts posting a 2.53 ERA. Journeyman righthander Trevor Cahill goes for San Francisco. Cahill is pitching well above his norm with a 1.64 ERA after three starts. The Diamondbacks hit righties much better than lefties and Cahill is due for major regression. If Cahill was anywhere close to being this good, he wouldn't be on his eighth big league team. The Giants have lost six of the past seven times following a loss. The Diamondbacks usually do the job as home chalk winning 16 of the last 21 times in that role.
08-29-20	Flyers v. Islanders -114		1-3	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
The Canucks' two top lines showed their talent and speed being instrumental in Vancouver's 5-2 Game 2 victory on Tuesday. Vancouver has the offense to do that to foes. The Canucks aren't so strong on the defensive end. It's why the Over is 21-9-1 in Vancouver's last 31 games. The Golden Knights have scored 4 or more goals in eight of their last 11 games since hockey resumed. The Golden Knights won Game 1 of the series, 5-0, and have the depth to dominate when third and fourth lines are skating. Both teams should be fully fresh after getting extra rest time with the postponement of Thursday's game until Saturday. The Over has cashed four of the past five times the teams have met.
08-29-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5	Top	80-114	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
There are a lot of dynamics that point to a lower-scoring game than the total posted: The teams last played on Monday. Possible rust. Russell Westbrook will make his series debut. This will be just his second game since Aug. 4. Possible rust. Focus could be an issue following the team's boycotting Wednesday's game in order to bring attention to social justice and racial inequality issues. Chris Paul was instrumental in those boycott talks. The series is tied 2-2 so this is a pivotal game. The Rockets live-and-die by the 3-pointer. No team fires up more shots from beyond the arc than Houston. Oklahoma City, though, finished third in 3-point percentage defense. Ace defensive rookie Lugentz Dort is healthy again for the Thunder. He's been a problem for James Harden, who has missed 28 of 39 3-point shots during the last three games.
08-29-20	Magic v. Bucks UNDER 226.5		104-118	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
Close out time here for Milwaukee. After being shocked in Game 1, the Bucks have won three in a row. The Bucks' defense stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when the Magic were semi hanging in holding Orlando to 25 points. I'm expecting a carryover of that Bucks' defensive intensity. The Magic lack the outside shooters to attack the Bucks' lone defensive weakness, which is just average in 3-point defense. Orlando is averaging only 103 points in its last three games. The Magic have shot just 28.9 percent from beyond the arc during these last three games. Defense is the Magic's strength. Orlando ranked fifth during the regular season defensively holding opponents to an average of 108.3 points per game. Unlike every other team in the bubble, the Magic don't have anywhere to go after their season is finished since the games are being played in Orlando. Magic coach Steve Clifford promised his team would go out with a supreme effort. That's going to come on the defensive end. The Bucks averaged 110.5 points during the first two games of the series. Milwaukee has scored 121 in each of the last two games. The Bucks shot 56 percent and 49 percent from the floor during these two last games. The Bucks are a good shooting team, but they aren't that good! The Bucks average 47.6 percent from the floor. There could be a rust factor, too, as Wednesday's game was postponed in the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis. So this will be the team's first game in five days. The Bucks could be bothered mentally, too, by all that has transpired since they were the ones who led the boycott of Wednesday's games.
08-28-20	Mariners +1.5 v. Angels	Top	2-3	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
The Angels aren't playing well, losing 11 of their last 14 games and Andrew Heaney is in bad form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. So I'll take a 1 1/2 runs with the Mariners, who have won five of their last six. If given 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Mariners are going with Nick Margevicius, who is showing potential in his last two starts joining the rotation in place of injured Kendall Graveman. Margevicius has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings and is coming off a victory against the Rangers.
08-26-20	Avalanche v. Stars OVER 5.5	Top	6-4	Win	100	21 h 15 m	Show
There were eight goals scored in Game 1 of this series. There were seven goals produced in Game 2. Yet the oddsmaker still is hanging a 5 1/2 total on this matchup just like in the first two games. That Over/Under is too short. Dallas has played aggressive in the playoffs. The Stars' top scorers have come alive helping Dallas produce five goals each during the first two games of the series. The Over is 5-0 in the Stars' last five games. Dallas is averaging 4.1 goals during its last seven games. The Stars can continue to take advantage of Colorado backup goalie Pavel Francouz. Both teams are without their starting goalies as Dallas is missing Ben Bishop. Look for Colorado to come out super aggressive down 2-0 in the series. The Avalanche's calling card is offense. They ranked fourth in scoring during the regular season. They have the most talented scorer on the ice in Nathan MacKinnon. The Avalanche have scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 15 games. The Over is 4-1 in their past five games.
08-26-20	Cubs -138 v. Tigers		6-7	Loss	-138	11 h 47 m	Show
Jon Lester was bit by the long ball bug in his last two starts surrendering a combined six homers to the White Sox and Brewers in his last two starts. I see Lester getting his act together facing the woeful Tigers while also being helped by the spacious dimensions of Comerica Park. Lester opened the season giving up just two runs during his first three starts. Lester is a medium-sized favorite because he's facing Michael Fulmer and a Detroit team that has lost 62 of its last 80 home games. The Tigers are letting Fulmer take his lumps as he recovers from Tommy John surgery having missed all of last season. Fulmer has given up 18 hits and 14 runs in 11 1/3 innings. That translates into a 9.53 ERA. He has yet to pitch more than three innings in a game this season.
08-25-20	Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5	Top	5-2	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Canucks don't have the defense nor depth to keep the Golden Knights' offense in check. Las Vegas has scored at least 4 goals in eight of 10 games since hockey resumed. Las Vegas is averaging 5 goals per game in three meetings with the Canucks this season. The Canucks should have more energy than they did in Game 1 on Sunday after they had just eliminated the Blues. Vancouver has outstanding young goal scorers in Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson. They also have good scoring depth this season. Vancouver was embarrassed, 5-0, in Game 1 of this series. It's noteworthy to point out that the Canucks are 18-7-1 to the Over the past 26 times when they failed to score more than two goals during their previous game.
08-25-20	Mavs v. Clippers -6.5	Top	111-154	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers.
08-25-20	Royals v. Cardinals -1.5		5-4	Loss	-103	15 h 19 m	Show
Say didn't you used to be Matt Harvey stud pitcher for the Mets? That was three teams and five years ago. Harvey never recovered from serious arm trouble. His time in the big leagues is likely limited so the time to fade him is now because chances are going to soon run out. Harvey made his first start of the year six days ago against the Reds. Predictably it didn't go well. Harvey gave up three runs in three innings allowing four hits in a 5-0 loss. Adam Wainwright is past his prime, but he's started the season well going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He's facing a Royals club that is not playing well and ranks 29th in runs scored. The Cardinals have started to get their offense in gear averaging 4.5 runs in their last six games. St. Louis has won three in a row - all by 3 or more runs. The Royals have been a bad road team losing 102 of their past 150 away games.
08-24-20	Stars v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		5-2	Win	100	18 h 28 m	Show
Forget perception. The Stars are far more offensive-minded in the playoffs. Veterans Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov have all stepped up. The result has been the Stars averaging four goals during their last six games. Colorado's major strength is its fourth-ranked offense. Look for the Avalanche to step up their attack after losing, 5-3, in Game 1 of this series this past Saturday. The Avalanche lost starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and veteran defenseman Erik Johnson to injuries in that game. Neither is expected to play here. The Stars remain without their stud goalie, Ben Bishop. There's a huge drop from Bishop to backup goalie Anton Khudobin.
08-24-20	Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156		3-2	Loss	-156	15 h 21 m	Show
The Rockies have fallen back to earth and are a fade on the road especially at Arizona. Colorado has lost 37 of its last 51 away games. The Rockies are 1-5 in their past six games at Chase Field. Arizona is going with Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.59 ERA. He's pitched well in four of his five starts. Colorado is pitching righthander Ryan Castellani, who just got battered by the Astros in his last start giving up five earned runs and eight hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 versus southpaw starters, but 13-9 when facing righthanders. Arizona also is 15-3 the past 18 times as a home favorite.
08-24-20	Angels v. Astros -148		4-11	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
In a battle of lefty starters, I want emerging star Framber Valdez going for me at home against the Angels' Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval was bad last season. He's bad again this season with a 5.40 ERA. Sandoval has yielded at least one homer during each of his four starts this season. The Astros have several big hitters out, but got back Michael Brantley on Sunday. The Astros are 23-5 in their last 28 home games versus a lefty starter. Valdez has been one of the bright spots for Houston allowing three earned runs in 20 2/3 innings during his last three starts. It's rarely wrong to fade the Angels on the road where they are 16-36 in their past 52 away matchups.
08-24-20	Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers	Top	135-115	Win	100	16 h 28 m	Show
No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
08-24-20	Islanders +100 v. Flyers		4-0	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
Impressive. That's what you have to say about the Islanders' performance in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs when they dominated and took out the Capitals. The Flyers had to go six games to eliminate the Canadiens. Montreal outscored Philadelphia in its first-round series. The Flyers were bothered by the Canadiens' physical, aggressive style. Philadelphia averaged just 1.8 goals during the series. The Islanders are a step up from Montreal. The Islanders swept the Flyers during the regular season winning all three matchups.
08-23-20	Canucks v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5	Top	0-5	Loss	-115	20 h 4 m	Show
Vancouver likes to attack and has the NHL's fourth-best power play. Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller are all accomplished goal scorers. The Canucks are a top-eight scoring team with a below average defense. That combination has resulted in a 20-8-1 mark to the Over in their last 29 games. The Golden Knights wouldn't mind an up-tempo game either since they will have plenty of energy having last played this past Tuesday. The Over is 6-0 the past six times the Golden Knights have played on 3 or more day's rest. Las Vegas wants to make an early statement in this series and they can do that by peppering the net with shots. The Golden Knights led the NHL in shots on goal. The teams met twice during the regular season. There were nine goals scored in each game.
08-23-20	Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5		0-5	Win	145	20 h 1 m	Show
The Golden Knights have never lost in regulation to the Canucks in 10 meetings. I don't expect that pattern to change in this Game 1. Given that the Golden Knights are the superior team and are in a very good situational spot, I'm expecting a Las Vegas multi-goal win so I'd rather grab a nice plus price on the puck line than lay heavy juice. The Canucks just played this past Friday night when they eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. That's a quick turnaround and a letdown spot. By contrast, the Golden Knights have been idle since Wednesday. Having four days to rest and prepare is huge at this stage. The Golden Knights opened their Stanley Cup playoffs with a 4-1 Game 1 victory against the Blackhawks, who had just got through upsetting the Oilers. I could envision the same type of victory here for the Golden Knights, who have a huge edge in depth and defense.
08-23-20	Diamondbacks -120 v. Giants		1-6	Loss	-120	8 h 26 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are much better against righties than southpaws going 13-8 versus righties as opposed to 0-7 against lefties. Righty Trevor Cahill will be making his third start replacing injured Jeff Samardzija. He's failed to go more than four innings in either of his starts. The Giants need their starters to go deep into games because their bullpen is so vulnerable. Cahill is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career appearances against the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver was emerging into a star before he was injured. The buy sign is back on Weaver as he rounds into shape. He's coming off his best start giving up one run on three hits in five innings in a 10-1 victory against the A's this past Tuesday. Weaver is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts against the Giants.
08-23-20	Rangers v. Mariners +122		1-4	Win	122	8 h 20 m	Show
How can the Rangers, losers of 7 in a row, be a road favorite pitching Mike Minor? How indeed? The Rangers have surrendered at least 6 runs in each of their losses during their losing streak. So I'll be on the home 'dog Mariners. Seattle will be starting Justin Dunn. I'm not betting the Mariners because of Dunn, although he beat the Rangers on Aug. 10 at Texas giving up just two runs in six innings. No, this handicap is a fade on the weak-hitting Rangers and the poor form of Minor. Minor hasn't been good since the first half of last season. He is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in five starts this season. The Rangers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating following 7-4 and 10-1 losses to the Mariners. Minor has a 5.05 ERA against the Mariners during the last three years.
08-23-20	Red Sox v. Orioles +115		4-5	Win	115	5 h 19 m	Show
In a matchup of bad starting pitchers, I'll take the plus price. That puts me on the home Orioles with a pitching matchup of Zack Godley versus Wade LeBlanc. I'm not a fan of journeyman LeBlanc. So this is a fade on the Red Sox. Godley has a 6.87 ERA. He's given up five homers in 18 innings. That's a red flag when pitching at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The Red Sox's bullpen is bad and depleted. It cost them the game yesterday. The Orioles average more runs per game than Boston and have hit more homers. Baltimore has scored 5 or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games.
08-23-20	Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers		110-106	Loss	-109	9 h 38 m	Show
The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here.
08-22-20	Lakers -7 v. Blazers	Top	116-108	Win	100	18 h 54 m	Show
The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
08-22-20	Stars v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		5-3	Win	116	9 h 43 m	Show
Both of these teams are on offensive rolls so I'm going to ride with it. The Stars are coming off seven unanswered goals in eliminating the Flames, 7-3, two days ago. Dallas scored five or more goals in three of the six games in the series. So the Stars shouldn't be dialing back their aggressive, attacking style that worked. The Avalanche are riding plenty of momentum, too. They are coming off back-to-back seven-goal games. Colorado is more than willing to play a fast skating tempo game.
08-22-20	Red Sox v. Orioles +111		4-5	Win	111	13 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying into the Red Sox being road chalk against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of lefty Martin Perez versus Alex Cobb. Cobb has been the better pitcher this season with a 3.76 ERA. Perez has a 4.07 ERA and walks too many batters. The Red Sox bullpen is bad plus depleted. The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They have a winning record this year against southpaws. Baltimore averages 4.9 runs per game, which ranks 11th. Boston ranks 18th averaging 4.6 runs. The Orioles also have hit more homers than Boston.
08-22-20	Angels v. A's -135		4-3	Loss	-135	10 h 15 m	Show
The Angels are a terrible road club and they can't win in Oakland having lost seven of the past eight times there. The Angels are 16-36 in their past 52 road games. Consequently, the A's have won 39 of their last 52 home games. The pitching matchup is Griffin Canning versus Chris Bassitt. Canning has potential, but he's not in good form giving up seven runs during his last 8 2/3 innings. He has a 4.70 ERA on the season and a lifetime 4.73 ERA against the A's in 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt is 2-0 this season with a 2.93 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games, but he's solid and limits homers and walks. That should be enough for the superior A's to defeat the cold Angles, who have dropped eight of their last nine.