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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-07-21	Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5	Top	30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 25 m	Show
Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton. Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense. The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs.
11-06-21	USC v. Arizona State -8		16-31	Win	100	50 h 35 m	Show
There's a lot wrong with USC these days. The Trojans have an interim head coach. A quarterback controversy. And they just lost their best player, Drake London. He was the top wide receiver in the country and the key to USC's passing attack. The Trojans were nip and tuck with winless Arizona last week before winning, 41-34. The Wildcats have one of the worst offenses in the country. Yet they scored 34 points on USC's defense. What does that tell you about USC? Arizona State is off a terrible performance, too, losing, 34-21, as a 16 1/2-point favorite to Washington State. Committing five turnovers was a killer for the Sun Devils. Jayden Daniels is a much better QB than he showed in that game. I'm looking for the Sun Devils to bounce back at home against the dysfunctional Trojans. ASU should be able to run more effectively against the Trojans than against the Cougars. USC QB Kedon Slovis is having a disappointing season. He's being pushed by freshman Jaxson Dart, who Arizona State knows well having recruited him. Both QB's are going to dearly miss the fantastic London. ASU ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in sacks with 22. So Slovis and Dart aren't going to have a clean pocket, especially with USC starting freshmen at the offensive tackle spots.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	34 h 34 m	Show
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season. Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.
11-06-21	Iowa -12 v. Northwestern		17-12	Loss	-108	66 h 15 m	Show
Iowa was never even close to being the second-best team in the country even opening 6-0. But now that the Hawkeyes are off losses to Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined margin of 51-14, they are being underrated with this short point spread stepping this far down in class. The Hawkeyes committed a combined seven turnovers against the Badgers and Boilermakers. They had gone into those games plus 15 in turnover margin. Look for the well-coached Hawkeyes to get back on track against Northwestern, a team they match up much better against. Iowa has a very strong defense. Northwestern has a very weak offense. The Wildcats average fewer than 20 points a game. They rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points and 11th in scrimmage yards. The Wildcats were just blown out by Minnesota, 41-14. Iowa has a good running back in Tyler Goodson. He should be in line for a strong game as Northwestern ranks 126th in the nation in run defense. If the Hawkeyes establish a ground attack, which they didn't do against Wisconsin and Purdue, this would make things much easier for pocket passer Spencer Petras. The Hawkeyes have been at their best beating and covering against bad teams going 21-6 ATS as a road favorite.
11-06-21	Red Wings v. Sabres UNDER 5.5		4-3	Loss	-112	9 h 2 m	Show
Two low scoring teams go at it here both carrying high fatigue ratings. The Red Wings enter the weekend as one of just six teams that has played as many as 11 games. This is a finale of a four-game, seven-day road trip. Discount a 5-4 loss to Toronto and the Red Wings have scored five goals in regulation during their last four games. The Sabres have scored 3 or fewer goals in regulation during six of their last seven games. They just returned from a four-game West Coast trip that concluded Thursday night in Seattle. So the Sabres still might not have their sea legs making the long journey back to the East Coast. Both teams are bad and badly in need of a victory. So this should be an intense, defensive-minded game.
11-06-21	Montreal +12.5 v. Winnipeg		21-31	Win	100	20 h 43 m	Show
Yes, Winnipeg is vastly superior to Montreal, is rested following a bye week and at home. So it's easy to see why the oddsmaker made the Blue Bombers a double-digit favorite. There's just one huge catch to this: This game means nothing to Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers already have clinched first place in the West Division and with it home field advantage for the postseason. So there's no reason for the Blue Bombers to go all out and play their regulars the entire game thus risking injury in a meaningless matchup. This isn't the case with the 6-5 Alouettes. They are battling hard for playoff positioning in the East Division. Montreal should get a spark, too, at quarterback from newly acquired Trevor Harris. Only one of Montreal's five losses this season has come by more than nine points.
11-06-21	Auburn +4.5 v. Texas A&M		3-20	Loss	-103	23 h 54 m	Show
Texas A&M is getting a lot of respect for having slain Alabama. I see the Aggies getting too much respect here. Auburn is 4-1 in its last five games with its only loss coming to Georgia during this span. The Tigers defeated Arkansas by two TD's two games ago. People forget that Texas A&M, victors over Alabama, lost to Arkansas, 20-10. Zach Calzada had the game of his life against Alabama. Truth be told, though, Calzada isn't nearly that good of a quarterback. Auburn is very strong in the trenches. The Tigers also have an experienced QB in Bo Nix, who doesn't commit turnovers. He has been picked off just twice this season. Compare this to Calzada, who has thrown an interception in each of his last six games. Auburn has covered the past four times it has played on the road against Texas A&M.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57	Top	35-10	Win	100	96 h 11 m	Show
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes. The Jayhawks are terrible on defense, too. But surprisingly they don't give up that many explosive ways. Foes have to launch long drives to put up points on Kansas. This eats up clock. The Jayhaws should be their most fired-up against this opponent.
11-05-21	Pacers v. Blazers -4.5	Top	106-110	Loss	-105	10 h 0 m	Show
Portland returns home following a disappointing 0-3 road trip capped off by an upset loss to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers should play with a sense of desperation. They also should play well having won their last three home games in blowout fashion against the Suns, Grizzlies and Clippers. Indiana is off a satisfying, 111-98, home win against the Knicks from Wednesday. The Pacers have been at their worst on the road going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS. This is their first away matchup in a week. Indiana does not have a good history at Portland either having lost in 11 of their past 12 visits.
11-05-21	Blackhawks v. Jets OVER 6		1-5	Push	0	4 h 27 m	Show
The Blackhawks give up 3.8 goals per game. That's the second-worst mark in the NHL. Chicago has surrendered 4 or more goals in eight of its 11 games. The Jets' offense is boosted with the return of Mark Scheifele, their leading scorer last season. He had been in COVID-19 protocol until the Jets' last game. Winnipeg has a below average defense. The Jets are the second-worst penalty killing unit in the league. Winnipeg has permitted a minimum of three goals in six of its nine games. The Jets will have backup Eric Comrie in goal as their star goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, is sitting out after his wife gave birth earlier this week. The Over has cashed in seven of the Jets' last eight home games.
11-05-21	BC v. Hamilton OVER 43.5		18-26	Win	100	27 h 13 m	Show
BC busted out for 29 points against Toronto this past Saturday after scoring just a combined 19 points in its previous three games. I believe the Lions' offense is back on track helped immeasurably by the return of wide receivers Lucky Whitehead and Dominique Rhymes, who is one of the top wideouts in the CFL. BC QB Michael Reilly threw for 290 yards on 20 completions with 3 TD's against the Argos. Reilly is an aggressive downfield passer, something you like to see when going Over the total. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has really stepped up his game lately. The Tiger-Cats are averaging 35.5 points in their past two games. Masoli is in line for another big performance against an injury-racked BC defense that has given up an average of 35.2 points in its last five games.
11-05-21	BC v. Hamilton -6.5		18-26	Win	100	27 h 12 m	Show
The Tiger-Cats are tough at home as evidenced by their 11-4-1 ATS mark the past 16 times they've been a host. BC is 4-10-1 ATS the past 15 times when meeting an above .500 foe. The Lions are in free fall, too, losers of five in a row. The Lions give up the third-most yardage in the CFL and produce the third-fewest yardage. They rank last in pass defense. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has been hot, averaging 346 yards passing, while compiling 1,038 yards and seven passing TD's during his last three games. The Lions have multiple defensive injuries. They've surrendered at least 30 points in each of their last five games.
11-04-21	Thunder +13.5 v. Lakers		107-104	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
Maybe by Christmas the Lakers can lay these many points. But not right now. LA is 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS. The Lakers have won three of their five games by a combined nine points with one occurring in overtime. Their largest margin of victory is 12 points. The Thunder are a bad team. But they've covered three of their last four games, including upsetting the Lakers, 123-115, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog eight days ago. Oklahoma City came from 26 points down to pull out that victory. Sure the Lakers have revenge. But look at how inflated the point spread is compared to the first meeting. The Lakers have a lot of veterans. This is their third game in five days. Up next for LA is a road game against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. The Lakers are savvy enough to pace themselves. If the Thunder can't hang in at least the back door should be wide open if the game turns into garbage time. LA has won three in a row. Note, though, those wins were against the Cavaliers and twice against the Rockets, all at home. The Lakers are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times as chalk.
11-04-21	Jets v. Colts -10	Top	30-45	Win	100	26 h 56 m	Show
The Pro Football Hall of Fame collected Mike White's jersey from last Sunday's stunning Jets' 34-31 win against the Bengals. Heady stuff. Kudos to the Jets, who caught the Bengals traveling in a division sandwich spot after beating the Ravens and hosting the Browns this week. The Jets are in the bad spot this week in their own letdown situation and playing a Thursday road game against a frustrated and motivated opponent that is at least two levels better than them. So I'm not afraid to lay this number with Indy. It's the Colts' first prime time home game in four years. The Colts are much the superior team and are in near must-win mode after blowing a two-touchdown lead last week in their AFC South Division showdown loss to the Titans. White isn't throwing for more than 400 yards and three TD's like he did against Cincinnati. White doesn't possess that kind of skill level. Defenses have film on him now, too, and Indy is well-coached defensively. The stunning victory against the Bengals obscures just how wretched the Jets really are. New York averages 13 fewer points per game than its opponents and 84 fewer yards. The Jets have the worst ground attack in the league and the highest percentage of passes intercepted. Carson Wentz has thrown multiple TD's in six straight games. Jonathan Taylor has reinforced his reputation as a stud running back. The Colts' offensive line has gotten healthy. Expect a Colts blowout.
11-04-21	76ers v. Pistons +5.5		109-98	Loss	-109	9 h 35 m	Show
The Pistons have short revenge and are in a great ambush spot here hosting the 76ers. Philadelphia just concluded a 4-0 homestand by beating the Bulls, 103-98, Wednesday night. The 76ers achieved this without Tobias Harris, Danny Green and Ben Simmons. None of those players are going to play today either. Harris has COVID-19, Green has a hamstring injury and Simmons is out for personal reasons. The 76ers were forced to play four of their starters more than 34 minutes against the Bulls, including Joel Embiid. Since this is the second of back-to-back games and against a lowly foe, so the 76ers may reduce Embiid's minutes. Philly has a rematch against the Bulls in Chicago up next on Saturday. This marks the 76ers' fifth game in eight days. Detroit has the worst record in the Eastern Conference at 1-6. The Pistons are in the midst of a major rebuild, but they've played a tough schedule as six of their seven opponents were good. The Pistons covered as 11-point road 'dogs to the 76ers in a 110-102 loss a week ago. The 76ers shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while making 22 of 24 free throws. The Pistons shot 41 percent from the floor. Detroit also didn't have projected rookie-of-the-year Cade Cunningham in that matchup. This will be Cunningham's third game back from an ankle injury so the rust is coming off.
11-03-21	Hurricanes v. Blackhawks +136		4-3	Loss	-100	3 h 33 m	Show
The Hurricanes are unbeaten. The Blackhawks have just one victory. Yet I'm going to take this price and back the home 'dog Blackhawks, whose lone victory occurred in their last game. That was a 5-1 dominant win at home against the improved Senators. Patrick Kane scored a hat trick and Marc-Andre Fleury was excellent in goal for a second straight game. Carolina barely escaped winless Arizona in its last game this past Sunday. The Hurricanes nipped the Coyotes, 2-1, with a power-play goal at 2:27 of the third period. The Hurricanes now take to the road for the first time in 12 days. They are fat and happy, overdue for a loss. I expect the Blackhawks to come in with their ''A'' game. That combination should produce a Chicago win.
11-03-21	Hawks v. Nets OVER 220		108-117	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
The Nets have gone Under in each of their seven games. But they are coming off a season-high 117 points against the Pistons in their last game this past Sunday. Nobody even reached the 30-minute mark in that game either, including James Harden and Kevin Durant. So I'm looking for a rested Nets squad, with their potent offense, to produce a big scoring effort against an average Atlanta defense. It's a good sign for Brooklyn that Harden is going to the free throw line a lot again. He's shot 22 free throws in the last two games. The Hawks are off an 118-point performance against the Wizards, their highest total in four games. Trae Young hit 7 of 16 shots from the floor and got to the free throw line a season-high 11 times in that game after missing 22 of 33 shots during his previous two games. So he should be back on track. The two teams averaged a combined 246.7 points during their previous four meetings.
11-03-21	Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs		104-107	Loss	-108	17 h 58 m	Show
The Cavaliers do seem improved this season. But they aren't better than the Trail Blazers and this spot sets up well for Portland. The Trail Blazers are trying to salvage the final game of a three-game road trip. They lost, 125-113, to the improved Hornets this past Sunday and followed that up with a disgusting, 113-103, loss to the 76ers on Monday. Philadelphia was minus Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Cleveland last played at home on Oct. 23. The Cavaliers concluded a five-game road trip with a 113-110 victory against the Hornets Monday giving them a 3-2 mark on their away journey. ''To go 3-2 on this trip is a hell of an accomplishment,'' Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was quoted as saying. So the Cavaliers come into this matchup fat and happy. They also might not have their focus being away from home for the past 11 days. Right after this game, the Cavaliers go back on the road for away games on Friday and Sunday. Such is the quirkiness of the NBA schedule. Cleveland will be playing with a short rotation as Kevin Love is in the NBA's health and safety protocol. He isn't expected to play today. The Trail Blazers dominated the Cavaliers last season winning by 19 points at home and 36 points on the road. They have covered five of the last six times versus the Cavs.
11-03-21	Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan	Top	42-30	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack. Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan. The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15. Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.) But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games. Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games. This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times.
11-02-21	Devils v. Ducks OVER 5.5		0-4	Loss	-105	4 h 28 m	Show
New Jersey has produced 3 or more goals in five of its seven games. The bigger surprise is Anaheim.The Ducks have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their 10 games, including the last five. The Ducks have slipped defensively ranking 28th in goals allowed per game. Anaheim's last seven games all have gone Over.
11-02-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	7-0	Loss	-114	23 h 27 m	Show
We've reached the sixth game of the World Series. Fatigue is setting in and the starting pitchers don't look so imposing anymore. I can see each side scoring at least four runs. So I'm going Over the total. Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta. He was solid during the regular season. But this strictly is a ''what have you done lately for me,'' case. The answer is nothing in Fried's case. He's given up 11 earned runs in a combined 9 2/3 innings during his last two starts against the Dodgers and Astros this past Wednesday in Game 2. The Astros beat Fried, 7-2, in that Game 2 matchup getting to him for six runs on seven hits in five innings. The Astros could only manage a combined two runs in Games 3 and 4. But they burst out in Game 5 this past Sunday winning, 9-5. Dusty Baker's perceived strength as a manager is the players like him. He's known as a player's manager. Baker, though, was a hitting coach before he began his managerial career. Baker helped jumpstart Houston's attack in Game 5 by adjusting the batting order, moving up Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel while dropping a slumping Alex Bregman. This worked. The Astros always were getting men on base. Now they were driving them home. Atlanta should be able to score on Houston starter Luis Garcia, who has a 7.62 ERA in four postseason appearances. He's pitching on just three days' rest after going 3 2/3 innings this past Friday throwing 72 pitches in that game. The Astros' bullpen has had to work 14 2/3 innings during the last three games. So there should be some vulnerability there.
11-02-21	Eastern Michigan +9 v. Toledo		52-49	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
Eastern Michigan is an attractive underdog here. The Eagles have the more experienced and accurate QB in Ben Bryant. Average four more points per game than Toledo and have a tremendous road spread record covering 24 of their last 33 away games for 73 percent. The Eagles are averaging nearly 33 points per game. Toledo has the superior defense. The Rockets only have five takeaways, however. Rockets freshman QB Dequan Finn is completing just 51 percent of his passes. Eastern Michigan is average defensively giving up 24.9 points a game. It has been difficult for a MAC team to beat the Eagles by double-digits. Eastern Michigan has lost by more than eight points only twice in its last 10 conference defeats. Toledo failed to cover the last two times it was favored. The Rockets lost, 22-20, at home to Northern Illinois as a 13-point favorite on Oct. 9 and fell, 26-23 in overtime, to Central Michigan as a five-point road favorite on Oct. 16.
11-02-21	Bucks -4 v. Pistons		117-89	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
The defending champion Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode with consecutive home losses to the Timberwolves, Spurs and Jazz. Now the Bucks take to the road, which might be better for them, and drop way down in class. Detroit is 1-5. The Pistons are in full rebuild mode. They are coming off their first win, though, beating an equally terrible Orlando this past Saturday. A rusty Cade Cunningham made his NBA debut in that game. He shot 1-for-8 in 19 minutes. It's going to take a while for Cunningham to get up to speed coming off an ankle injury. Milwaukee has owned the Pistons, beating them 14 times in a row going 11-2-1 ATS. Detroit has failed to cover nine of the last 10 times it has been a 'dog.
11-01-21	Nuggets v. Grizzlies +1.5	Top	97-106	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
Now that the Grizzlies are home underdogs - which they shouldn't be - I'm going to get involved with them against Denver. The Nuggets are off wins against the Mavericks on Friday and the Timberwolves on Saturday. So this is their third game in four days. The Grizzlies were embarrassed at home by the Heat, 129-103, two days ago. Memphis will be up for this game. The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times after a double-digit defeat. Memphis is tested, too, having played five straight playoff opponents. The Nuggets have failed to cover in six of their last seven visits to Memphis.
11-01-21	Senators +125 v. Blackhawks		1-5	Loss	-100	4 h 24 m	Show
The Senators are improved this season. They are a respectable 3-4 and just upset the Stars, 4-1, on the road this past Friday. The Blackhawks do not look improved. They look worse. Chicago is 0-9 and has plenty of chemistry issues. The Blackhawks have managed only 12 goals in their last seven games. Patrick Kane is a game-time decision having been in COVID-19 protocol. Maybe the Blackhawks get their first win and the due factor kicks in. But I'll take a plus price to find that out.
10-31-21	Astros -111 v. Braves	Top	9-5	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
10-31-21	Sabres +118 v. Kings		2-3	Loss	-100	14 h 15 m	Show
The Sabres have been a big early surprise going 5-2. They last played on Thursday and draw the Kings playing without rest and in action for the third time in four days. The Kings are a bit fat and happy after ending a six-game losing streak with a 5-2 home win against the Canadiens Saturday. Calvin Peterson was in net for the Kings in that game. So that likely means Jonathan Quick will be in goal against the Sabres. LA is 0-4 with Quick in goal as Quick is well past his prime. The oddsmaker is sleeping on the Sabres opening the Kings as the favorite.
10-31-21	Jaguars v. Seahawks -3		7-31	Win	100	42 h 13 m	Show
I can't see the Seahawks losing to the Jaguars at home with their season on the line. The Seahawks still possess the talent - even without Russell Wilson - the coaching, experience and savvy to defeat a bottom feeder such as Jacksonville. Seattle's defense has picked up its game holding its last two opponents under 350 yards. The Seahawks also have had the best third-down defense during the last four weeks. Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams are elite players. Jacksonville could come out flat making the long journey having not played in two weeks. The Jaguars also have the monkey off their backs having halted their 20-game losing streak with a 23-20 win against the Dolphins in London. Jacksonville is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times following a victory.
10-31-21	Titans v. Colts -2.5	Top	34-31	Loss	-118	39 h 7 m	Show
Now that their offensive line - one of the best in the NFL - is healthy for the first time this season, I expect the Colts to protect their home field and beat the Titans. If the Colts were to lose, they would trail Tennessee by three games in the division. So the urgency certainly is there for Indy. The Titans are off tremendous victories against the Bills and Chiefs. It's difficult for a flawed team, which the Titans are given their shortcomings on defense and special teams, to pull off a third straight upset. Carson Wentz is playing at a high level. He's thrown the fewest interceptions of any starting QB and owns a 119.5 passer rating this month with an 8.9 yards-per-attempt average. Jonathan Taylor can't match Derrick Henry, but he's come on strong to enter the argument of being a top-five runner.
10-31-21	Bengals v. Jets +11		31-34	Win	100	39 h 6 m	Show
I understand the Jets are a hold-your-nose team to back. The Jets' defense, though, has played hard and above their heads for first-year head coach Robert Saleh, a defensive guru. New York's offense might show better than expected with backup Mike White given a whole week of practicing with the first team. He has good wide receivers even if Corey Davis doesn't play. But make no mistake this handicap is far more about fading the Bengals, who are in a terrible situational spot. Not only is this Cincinnati's third consecutive road game, but the Bengals are coming off the best road win of Zac Taylor's Bengals' coaching career, downing the Ravens, 41-17, last Sunday. The Bengals are in an obvious letdown spot. They also are in a division sandwich with a much bigger game on deck when they host the Browns next week. Cincinnati's is much improved. But they aren't so elite to cover a double-digit road number in this type of situation.
10-31-21	49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5		33-22	Win	100	15 h 33 m	Show
A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense. Justin Fields has been a disaster - so far. But this will be his sixth start. He has the legs and receiving talent with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet to put up his share of points. The Bears have gone Under in their last six games, but they've never had a total of less than 40 this season. The 49ers have enough firepower to help this total get Over, too, especially since the Bears will be missing their best defensive player, star pass rusher Khalil Mack. He's out with a foot injury. Chicago ranks 23rd in run defense. The 49ers are ground-oriented. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing for his job. So he knows he has to come in with a good performance here.
10-30-21	Arizona v. USC UNDER 56		34-41	Loss	-110	28 h 52 m	Show
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total. The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16. Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah. USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.
10-30-21	SMU +1 v. Houston		37-44	Loss	-114	27 h 49 m	Show
The spot is ripe for SMU. The Mustangs haven't played in 10 days. They are rested and should be well prepared. Houston lost by 17 points to Texas Tech opening week and then reeled off six straight victories. None of the teams the Cougars beat, though, is as good as SMU. I don't see the Cougars being strong enough to step up here. They needed overtime to beat East Carolina, 31-24, last Saturday. That game lasted much longer than expected due to several weather delays. Cougars QB Clayton Tune is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is having a huge season with 29 TD passes and a 71.1 percent completion percentage.
10-30-21	Celtics +2.5 v. Wizards		112-115	Loss	-110	10 h 0 m	Show
Washington is off to a nice 4-1 start. But this game sets up well for Boston. The teams just met in Boston this past Wednesday. The Wizards upset the Celtics, 116-107, as a 4-point road 'dog. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics' two main scorers, were a combined 14-for-38 (36.8 percent) in the loss. Washington shot 51 percent from the floor in the win, while Boston made 44 percent of its field goals. The Celtics have been idle since then. They can use the prep and practice time playing for first-year head coach Ime Udoka. The Wizards went on to defeat the Hawks on Thursday night. So this marks their third game in four days. It's an earlier than usual start time, too. Washington might be without two of its rotation players with Rui Hachimura and Daniel Gafford each questionable.
10-30-21	BC v. Toronto -3		29-31	Loss	-110	27 h 10 m	Show
Surprising that this line opened so low. BC hasn't been competitive going 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Lions have lost their last three games by a combined margin of 114-19. A struggling offensive line and multiple injuries at wide receiver have rendered the Lions punchless. Toronto should bounce back after a 37-16 road loss to Montreal last week. The Argos had won and covered their previous three games. They have not lost back-to-back games all season. BC's defense is gassed and this marks the Lions' second consecutive road game. They lost, 45-0, at Winnipeg last Saturday. Toronto is 4-0 at home this season and 5-0-1 ATS during its past six home contests. BC has failed to cover in four of its last five meetings against Toronto.
10-30-21	Louisiana Tech -4 v. Old Dominion	Top	20-23	Loss	-105	53 h 57 m	Show
Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team. Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25. Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris. Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48		10-35	Win	100	25 h 43 m	Show
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.
10-30-21	Rutgers -117 v. Illinois		20-14	Win	100	26 h 32 m	Show
Rutgers has become a respectable Big Ten team under Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights can't compete with the conference elites, but they can beat the lower tier teams such as Illinois especially in this instance given the situation and the Illini's QB situation. Illinois is off a huge nine overtime victory against Penn State. The Illini were 24-point road 'dogs in that game. Unfortunately for the Illini they lost their quarterback, Artur Sitkowski, in that game to a broken arm. Brandon Peters replaces Sitkowski. Peters has starting experience, but he's a downgrade. Rutgers has a top-50 scoring defense despite having played Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.
10-29-21	Clippers v. Blazers -3		92-111	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
The Trail Blazers have short revenge here. They were buried, 116-86, on the road by the Clippers just four days ago. Damian Lillard and Portland got back on track rebounding to win impressively at home two days ago beating Memphis, 116-96. The Trail Blazers were sharp in their previous home game, too, defeating the Suns, 134-105. I see the Trail Blazers motivated and ready to destroy a disjointed Clippers team that has not found an identity without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers' lone victory was the one against Portland. Lillard had an off-shooting night in that game making just 4-of-15 field goal attempts. I don't see that happening again. Despite Paul George playing well to begin the season, the Clippers are 1-3. They just lost, 92-79, at home to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. That's highly troubling.
10-29-21	UNLV v. Nevada -20	Top	20-51	Win	100	19 h 21 m	Show
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. That's not the question, though. The question is can Nevada cover a three-touchdown spread? The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. Nevada has a strong home field. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games.
10-29-21	Hornets +5 v. Heat		99-114	Loss	-103	8 h 46 m	Show
The Hornets remain below the radar. If not for an overtime loss to the Celtics, the Hornets would be 5-0 SU and ATS. They are leading the NBA in scoring at 121.2 points per game and are 2-0 on the road. Miles Bridges could be the most improved player in the league. He's averaging 26.2 points. Miami is the top defensive team in the league. But Charlotte has balanced scoring with four players averaging more than 14 points. It's an added bonus for Charlotte if Terry Rozier can play after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. He's questionable. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Heat could be in letdown mode after an impressive road victory in an underdog role against the Nets two days ago.
10-28-21	Spurs +7 v. Mavs		99-104	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
The Spurs' record shows 1-3. But it's a good 1-3 as San Antonio played tough against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers, a game it should have won but lost in overtime. Gregg Popovich was pleased with the effort and the performances, which is good enough for me. The Mavericks are in transition under new coach Jason Kidd, who I find to be an overrated coach yet he keeps getting hired. I much prefer the Mavericks as underdogs not favorites. Dallas is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times when playing a below .500 foe. The Spurs have been excellent money-makers when on the road going 15-6-1 ATS.
10-28-21	Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50	Top	24-21	Loss	-115	25 h 46 m	Show
The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show. Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over. Murray certainly is in line for another big game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points in every game except one. The Packers won't have their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, nor their best pass rusher, Za'Darius Smith. They may not have their other starting cornerback, Kevin King, nor their third-best pass rusher, Preston Smith. Both missed last Sunday's game and are questionable here not helped by the short week. The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray.
10-28-21	Flames v. Penguins OVER 5.5		4-0	Loss	-105	3 h 16 m	Show
The Flames are averaging 4.2 goals during their last four games. They get to face backup Pittsburgh goalie Casey DeSmith, who has a 4.92 goals against average. The Penguins rank seventh in scoring despite not having Sidney Crosby yet and having had to go against superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who held them to one goal. Discount that game against the Lightning and Vasilevskiy and the Penguins would be averaging 3.6 goals in five games.
10-27-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	2-7	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
I can easily see each team scoring at least four runs in this Game 2 World Series matchup. The Braves beat the Astros, 6-2, for a total of eight runs in yesterday's Game 1. But the teams combined for 20 hits while leaving 18 men on base. Atlanta hit the third-most homers in the majors. The Braves are a top-eight offense. They are averaging 5.1 runs during their last six games against good pitching. Houston has the best offense in baseball. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The starters are Max Fried, who has a 3.78 ERA in three playoff starts this season, against Jose Urquidy, who looked bad in his only postseason start giving up six runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Oct. 18.
10-27-21	Braves +107 v. Astros		2-7	Loss	-100	10 h 48 m	Show
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since.
10-27-21	Pacers v. Raptors		100-118	Loss	-115	8 h 58 m	Show
Toronto isn't going to be very good this season. The Raptors are especially lower tier without Pascal Siakam, who is their main offensive weapon. Indiana is the better team. The Pacers hold a frontcourt edge with Domantis Sabonis and shot-blocker supreme Myles Turner. Rookie Chris Duarte is off to a hot start and Malcolm Brogdon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Fred VanVleet is the Raptors' main cog with Siakam out. VanVleet is turnover-prone and shoots a very low percentage from the floor. I like Brogdon to handle him. The Pacers are stepping down in class after defeating the Heat this past Saturday and hanging tough in a loss to the defending champion Bucks two days ago. The Raptors are 0-3 at home. They've lost to the Wizards, Mavericks and Bulls by an average of 8.6 points a game. Toronto is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home contests going back to last season. The Pacers have been excellent in this situation going 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games versus opponents with a losing home mark.
10-26-21	Wild v. Canucks OVER 5.5		3-2	Loss	-120	6 h 2 m	Show
Minnesota's defense is struggling. The Wild have surrendered 13 goals in their last three games. The Wild, though, are averaging four goals per game during their last three games. The Canucks have scored four goals in each of their last two games. Conor Garland has been hot for Vancouver with eights points on the season. The Over is 8-2-1 the past 11 times the teams have met in Vancouver.
10-26-21	Warriors v. Thunder +9.5		106-98	Win	100	4 h 33 m	Show
Sometimes you have to back an ugly underdog when the spot is right in the NBA. That's the case in this matchup. Oklahoma City is 0-3. The Thunder were blown out by the Jazz and Rockets during their first two games this season. They improved in their last game, a 12-point home loss to the 76ers. They are getting good scoring from guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey. Those two will be motivated to go against Stephen Curry. But the basis of this handicap is a fade on the Warriors, who are fat and happy with a 3-0 mark. This is their best start since 2015-16. The Warriors are on the road for a second straight game. Following this matchup they return to the Bay Area to begin an eight-game homestand. So you have to wonder about their focus as it's a definite letdown spot for the Warriors.
10-26-21	Braves v. Astros UNDER 8.5	Top	6-2	Win	100	23 h 17 m	Show
There may be some high-scoring games in this World Series. Just not in this Game 1. The pitching matchup is lefty Framber Valdez versus Charlie Morton. Valdez is tough on opponents unfamiliar with him because of his effective curveball and sinker. He mixes them well. Valdez was dominant in his last start holding the Red Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings last Wednesday. The Braves batted .239 against lefty pitching during the regular season. That ranked them 24th. They were 23rd in on base percentage versus southpaws. The Astros have been swinging hot bats. But they haven't played since Friday, a span of four days. That's the longest the Astros have been idle since the All-Star break back in mid-July. Morton is a big-play pitcher. He's had World Series experience with the Astros and Rays during the last five years. He is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 playoff appearances, including 15 starts. Morton is backed by a rested Braves' bullpen that was great against a potent Dodgers lineup. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Jesse Chavez combined to shut out the Dodgers in their 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Tyler Matzek was dominant in Game 6. Luke Jackson was outstanding during the regular season.
10-25-21	Blazers v. Clippers -3		86-116	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
The Clippers, minus Kawhi Leonard, have shown heart. They just haven't shown victories. LA is 0-2 for the first time in 11 years. A slow start from the Clippers was not unexpected since they don't have Leonard and the new starters didn't log much time together during preseason. Still, the Clippers nearly beat the Warriors on the road coming from 19 points down before losing, 115-113. The Clippers fell behind the Grizzlies by 16 points yet made a comeback before falling, 120-114. So LA has fight. The Clippers just need to knock down more shots because they've had open looks. I expect that to happen here against the Trail Blazers, who aren't good defensively and didn't look good in preseason. This is Portland's first road game of the season. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS during their last four road games against the Clippers. LA has the backcourt defenders in Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe to keep Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in check.
10-25-21	Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43	Top	13-10	Win	100	82 h 23 m	Show
The early forecast is for a high chance of rain - not exactly shocking for Seattle - with winds in the 10 mph range. That's not a plus for the Over. Nor is the quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston has been far more effective in his home games inside the New Orleans zone. Geno Smith is a backup. Both Winston and Smith are turnover-prone. Winston has been sacked nine times and picked off three times in three road games this season. The Saints are solid defensively both against the run and pass. The Saints entered this week ranked third in the metric DVOA, which is defense-adjusted value over average. The Seahawks' defense features middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams, two of the top players at their respective positions. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times the Seahawks have played an NFC opponent.
10-24-21	Colts +4 v. 49ers	Top	30-18	Win	100	71 h 13 m	Show
This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. Carson Wentz quietly is having a good season. He has just one interception, fewest of any starting quarterback, and has thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last three games. The Colts' stud offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor gives Indy the best running back on the field by far. This is a huge game for Colts' star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner going against his former team. The 49ers have lost their last six home games. They are 0-8 ATS as home chalk. I find Kyle Shanahan to be perhaps the most overrated coach in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB. Trey Lance isn't expected to play due to a knee injury. Garoppolo is much easier to game plan against. He wasn't mobile to begin with and now he's returning from a calf injury. The 49ers have yet to find their lead running back and star tight end George Kittle is on the injured list. The Colts are plus 7 in takeaways/giveaways. The 49ers, by contrast, have a minus-5 turnover ratio. The 49ers have multiple injuries in their secondary. There's a chance of rain and wind in the 10-15 mph range. This favors the better rushing team, which the Colts are because of Taylor.
10-24-21	Celtics -5.5 v. Rockets		107-97	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
Boston and its new coach, Ime Udoka, are in need of a victory at 0-2. The Rockets are off a rare victory. Houston isn't going to win many games this season, but it did beat another bottom-feeder, Oklahoma City, in blowout fashion two days ago. The Rockets finished last season 0-8 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are on high urgency alert having lost their opening in double-overtime to the Knicks and then running out of gas against the Raptors in a 115-83 home loss this past Friday. The Celtics were booed by their fans and Udoka ripped into his team. Expect a strong performance from Boston today against a very weak opponent who doesn't have much of a home-court advantage.
10-24-21	Texans +18 v. Cardinals		5-31	Loss	-110	68 h 42 m	Show
As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Cardinals deserve a break. They get one here. This is a rest stop for Arizona. The Cardinals came away with two huge division victories against the Rams and 49ers before going on the road against the Browns. The Cardinals didn't take their foot off the pedal defeating Cleveland, 37-14, last week. After this game, the Cardinals host the Packers on Thursday in a stand-alone nationally televised marquee matchup. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco for a rematch against the 49ers. The media may play up the DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt angle of facing their former team, but in truth the Cardinals can mail this one in - and they know it. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills has had 18 quarters of starting experience now. But, really, this entire handicap is based on a fade of Arizona in this monster price range and in a flat spot. The Cardinals have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times they've been a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury.
10-24-21	Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5		19-28	Win	100	67 h 3 m	Show
I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles. The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2. The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals. Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters. The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games.
10-24-21	Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5		41-17	Loss	-105	64 h 4 m	Show
I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points. The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line. I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs. Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen.
10-24-21	Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 47.5		30-28	Win	100	64 h 2 m	Show
There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span. Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace. Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around. The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways.
10-23-21	Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 44		20-17	Loss	-109	30 h 58 m	Show
The linesmaker doesn't have time to put much emphasis into Canadian Football League lines. If he did he would realize this total opened too short. Perhaps it's accurate in reflecting scores of past games. But it's not fully taking into account where these two team's offenses are now. Saskatchewan has been held to an average of 18 points in its last two games after scoring 31 and 30 points during its previous two games. However, the Roughriders get key reinforcements here in wide receivers Shaq Evans and Duke Williams. Evans has played only two games and Williams will be making his Roughriders debut. This is a huge boost for QB Cody Fajardo. Calgary has picked up its offense this month, averaging 28 points in three October games. The Stampeders get a key playmaker back, too, in wide receiver Kamar Jordan. That gives QB Bo Levi Mitchell another target to go with Josh Huff and Markeith Ambles. Saskatchewan is giving up an average of 26.6 points in three road games.
10-23-21	Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls		82-97	Loss	-105	10 h 6 m	Show
Short revenge for Detroit. The teams just met four days ago in Detroit and the Bulls won, 94-88. The Pistons shot 40 percent from the floor and 21 percent from 3-point range yet lost by only six points. Chicago is much improved. But this is a flat spot for the 2-0 Bulls after they just whipped the Pelicans, 128-112, at home last night. This marks the Bulls' third game in four days and second in two days. Detroit hasn't played since losing to the Bulls this past Wednesday. The Pistons won't have Cade Cunningham, but they still have promising young talent in Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey.
10-23-21	San Diego State +3 v. Air Force	Top	20-14	Win	100	20 h 57 m	Show
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game. The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire.
10-23-21	Maryland v. Minnesota -4	Top	16-34	Win	100	21 h 18 m	Show
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points. Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games. Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points. The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley. The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5		34-27	Loss	-113	97 h 43 m	Show
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. (Update: I put this play out early in the week anticipating the total would climb, which it has. Even though the line value is gone now, the handicap still holds. I expect there will be 70 or more combined points scored.)
10-23-21	Eastern Michigan -3.5 v. Bowling Green		55-24	Win	100	12 h 22 m	Show
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game. Bowling Green ranks 111th in run defense. The Falcons have gone downhill since upsetting Minnesota a month ago losing their last three games, all by 7 or more points to MAC foes Kent State, Akron and Northern Illinois. The Falcons failed to win a conference game last year. If you count just FBS schools, the Falcons have lost 17 of their last 19 home games. The Eagles are far from being a great team. But they are decent enough to cover this short road number against this sinking opponent.
10-22-21	Suns v. Lakers	Top	115-105	Loss	-110	11 h 47 m	Show
Both the Suns and Lakers lost their opening games. I'm expecting the Lakers to get well in this second game of their season being home and in revenge mode against the Suns, who eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Lakers are healthy this time around with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. LA upgraded its roster adding Russell Westbrook. He should be more settled in after not playing well in the Lakers', 121-114, loss to the Warriors. The Suns didn't look good in a 110-98 home loss to the Nuggets two days ago. I don't think the Suns will be as good as they were last season when everything fell into place for them.
10-22-21	Pelicans v. Bulls -6		112-128	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
The Bulls are below the radar right now, a much improved team not getting enough respect from the linesmaker. Chicago added DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball to go with emerging superstar Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls covered against the Pistons on the road in their opener despite shooting 43 percent from the floor and hitting 30 percent of their 3-pointers. New Orleans, on the other hand, isn't going to get good until it gets Zion Williamson back. He's recovering from surgery for a broken foot. The Pelicans have a new bench and lack experience. They aren't likely to have Josh Hart, Williamson's replacement, after he suffered a quad injury in the Pelicans' opening game, a 117-97 home loss to the 76ers.
10-22-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	0-5	Loss	-115	19 h 49 m	Show
This series isn't about pitching. It's all about offense. Boston's bats have gone quiet the last two games. But I expect the Red Sox to explode against Luis Garcia, who has given up 13 earned runs in three playoff appearances spanning 8 2/3 innings. Garcia had to leave his last start six days ago against the Red Sox because of a sore knee. He surrendered five runs in one inning of work. The Red Sox had the third-highest batting average during the season. Only four teams scored more runs than Boston. The Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston is averaging seven runs in its last dozen games. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. The Astros have seen him twice in the series getting to him for seven runs in six innings. Neither bullpen instills any fear. Pitching usually trumps hitting. Not in this series, nor in this game, though.
10-22-21	Bruins v. Sabres OVER 5.5		4-1	Loss	-112	7 h 32 m	Show
The Bruins have scored three goals in each of their first two games. They have maybe the top line in hockey and should be good for at least three goals in this game. Going back to last season, the Bruins have now scored 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 regular season games. The Sabres are a big early-season surprise. They are averaging 4 goals per game in jumping out to a 3-0 record. Buffalo faces former teammate Linus Ullmark, who is slated to make his season debut in net for Boston. The Sabres know Ullmark's tendencies well since he played six seasons for Buffalo. The Over has cashed the past four times the teams have met.
10-21-21	Oilers v. Coyotes OVER 6		5-1	Push	0	7 h 34 m	Show
The Coyotes are going to be terrible this season. They're already giving indications of that, allowing an average of 5.6 goals in their three games. Edmonton superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are sure to feast. It's easy to envision Edmonton producing five goals in this game. After scoring just three goals in their first two games, the Coyotes produced four goals in their last game against the Blues. The Oilers just surrendered five goals to the Ducks in their last game.
10-21-21	Bucks v. Heat -115		95-137	Win	100	7 h 14 m	Show
The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks the past several seasons. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are reinforced with veteran additions Kyle Lowery, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris. Miami also catches Milwaukee short-handed. Ruled out for the Bucks are big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis along with point guard Jrue Holiday. So it's not too much to ask of the Heat to simply win their opening home game.
10-21-21	Ducks v. Jets OVER 5.5		1-5	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
I'm not about to call the Ducks an Over team, but Anaheim's offense and power play have been surprisingly good at this early juncture. The Ducks also have been getting outstanding offensive contributions from their defensemen. They've helped the Ducks produce 3 or more goals in three of their four games. The Ducks have scored four power play goals in 12 opportunities. The Jets have given up seven goals in 15 short-handed situations. I'm expecting a lot of penalties, too. These teams met eight days ago in their season openers. The Ducks won, 4-1, but the big takeaway was the bad blood that came out after Jets forward Andrew Copp knocked Ducks goalie John Gibson to the ice after running into him. The Ducks considered that dirty pool. The Jets have scored eight goals in their last two games.
10-21-21	Tulane v. SMU -13.5	Top	26-55	Win	100	69 h 1 m	Show
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston. Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game. QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained. The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up.
10-20-21	Kings +5.5 v. Blazers	Top	124-121	Win	100	22 h 7 m	Show
Portland could start slow under new coach Chauncey Billups. The Trail Blazers struggled through preseason going 0-4. Billups was quoted as saying Portland is further away than he thought they might be at this stage. The Kings have talent and depth. I'm expecting improvement from them. Sacramento went 4-0 in preseason. One of the Kings' preseason victories was 107-93 against the Trail Blazers although Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum didn't play. A key for the Kings is better defense. Ball hawking rookie Davion Mitchell can make an impact on defense. Portland enters this season having failed to cover eight of the past 11 times as a home favorite.
10-20-21	Bulls -5 v. Pistons		94-88	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Both the Bulls and Pistons were bad last season. The Pistons still are going to be bad with the youngest lineup in the NBA. The Bulls, though, should be much improved. Chicago has surrounded emerging superstar Zach LaVine with veteran stars DeMar DeRozan and Nkila Vucevic while solving its point guard issue by acquiring Lonzo Ball. The Bulls looked good in preseason going 4-0. They should have no trouble covering this small number against the Pistons, who are unlikely to have rookie Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the draft. Cunningham hasn't been able to go through a full practice this week because of an ankle injury.
10-20-21	Astros +112 v. Red Sox	Top	9-1	Win	112	8 h 51 m	Show
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
10-19-21	Ducks v. Oilers OVER 6		5-6	Win	100	3 h 8 m	Show
The Oilers may have the most dangerous line in hockey with Jesse Puljujarvi fitting in with superstars Connor McDvid and Leon Drasisitl. Puljujarvi already has four points - two goals and two assists - in Edmonton's first two games. The Ducks could be missing reliable defenseman Hampus Lindholm. He was hurt in the Ducks' 3-2 overtime win against the Flames last night. The Over is 5-2-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Edmonton.
10-19-21	Islanders v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5		4-1	Loss	-103	2 h 9 m	Show
Welcome to the Blackhawks Marc-Andre Fleury. The Blackhawks were bad defensively last season and they haven't shown any improvement through three games this season. Chicago has given up 13 goals. More surprising is the Islanders' lack of defense. They've allowed 11 goals in two games with goalie Ilya Sorokin off to a slow start. Going back to last season, the Over is 16-5-1 in the Blackhawks' last 22 games.
10-19-21	Nets +1 v. Bucks	Top	104-127	Loss	-101	18 h 8 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference heading into the season. The Nets have the greater motivation having lost in seven games to the Bucks in the playoffs. The Nets had a 2-0 series lead, but then were struck by injuries. Aside from Kyrie Irving, the Nets are at full strength now. Brooklyn signed free agent guard Patty Mills to fill the void during Irving's absence. Mills is a solid role contributor. The Bucks are home, but that may not be the positive you would think. It's ring night where the Milwaukee players receive their championship rings. That's often a mental distraction and provides the opposition added incentive. Credit to the Bucks for what they accomplished last season. But I'm not convinced they are better than Brooklyn when the Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant and James Harden.
10-18-21	Blues -175 v. Coyotes		7-4	Win	100	7 h 40 m	Show
Arizona is going to be terrible this season. The Coyotes opened the season with an 8-2 loss to the Blue Jackets and then lost, 2-1, in a shootout against the Sabres, another terrible team like themselves. The Blues looked very good in their opener - at least for the first 50 minutes. The Blues nearly blew a 4-1 lead against the Avalanche on the road, but held on to win, 5-3. Now St. Louis is stepping way down in class. The Coyotes have confirmed Carter Hutton will be in goal. I don't consider him a legitimate starting NHL goalie.
10-18-21	Bills -5.5 v. Titans	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	25 h 43 m	Show
Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. The Titans' bottom 10 defense isn't going to be able to stop mobile Josh Allen, who has the luxury of excellent play-calling from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, after not slowing down rookies Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson the past two weeks. Derrick Henry continues to be the best running back in the NFL. Henry's usefulness, though, is greatly reduced if the Titans have to play from behind as I anticipate. The Bills' pass rush is much improved and Ryan Tanneheill has been sacked a league-high 20 times. The Bills have won by double-digits in 10 of their last 11 regular season games. Any talk of a Bills' letdown after their great win against Kansas City last week is crazy. Not only is this a Monday night game, but Buffalo has revenge for a 42-16 loss to Tennessee last year.
10-18-21	Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9		3-12	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's surely not Under. Boston manager Alex Cora said he feels ''really good offensively,'' about his team. He should. The Red Sox have scored 13 runs during the first two games of this series. They are averaging 7.8 runs in their last five games. Boston has scored six or more runs in six of its last eight games. Certainly the Astros figure to get their share of runs. They led the majors in runs and batting average. Houston is averaging 7.1 runs in its last nine games. The Astros have scored a minimum of five runs a game during these past nine games. Neither team has a starting pitcher, or the bullpen, to stymie these powerhouse offenses.
10-17-21	Stars v. Senators +120		2-3	Win	120	5 h 44 m	Show
The Senators have won each of the last six times they have been a home underdog. Dallas is 0-4 in its last four visits to Ottawa. The Stars already are dealing with injuries. The biggest injury is to key defenseman John Klingberg. The Stars also are going with backup goalie Anton Khudobin. There's a chance the Senators will have newly signed Brady Tkachuk in the lineup. But I still like the Senators to pull the upset even without Tkachuk.
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5	Top	37-14	Loss	-110	120 h 55 m	Show
The Browns' defense isn't elite, but they are much better than how they looked last week in giving up 47 points to a hot Justin Herbert and Chargers' offense. Cleveland had surrendered just 33 combined points in its previous three games. Kyler Murray took a beating against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals are heading into a different climate away from their desert. The forecast is for wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. Neither team plays fast. The Browns are heavily run-oriented. They rank 29th in pace. The Cardinals are in the bottom nine in tempo.
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns -2.5		37-14	Loss	-120	98 h 60 m	Show
The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team. By the time this game finishes, I highly doubt Arizona still will be without a loss. This game sets up well for the Browns. Cleveland easily is the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Cardinals rank 28th in run defense. Kyler Muray has been carrying the one-dimensional Cardinals. He's bothered by a shoulder injury in his passing arm and is likely to be without his injured center Rodney Hudson. Early reports are the Browns will have a number of their banged-up defensive players available for this game. The warm-weather Cardinals are traveling into heavy wind.
10-17-21	Mercury v. Sky -4		74-80	Win	100	17 h 31 m	Show
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
10-17-21	Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47.5		34-11	Win	100	67 h 38 m	Show
The Bengals are much improved defensively. They held the Packers to 22 points during regulation last week and have surrendered an average of 18.2 points during their last four games. Cincinnati gets to step way down in class to face the punchless Lions. Detroit didn't have much going - and that was before getting struck with massive injuries. Frank Ragnow, a very good center, is out. So is Quintez Cephus, who had emerged as Detroit's top wide receiver. Tyrell Williams, maybe Detroit's second best wideout, is out, too. Not helping matters are the struggles of rookie left tackle Penei Sewell. The result has been Jared Goff averaging an embarrassing 6.6 yards pass attempt, while continuing to show off his inaccuracy and lack of any big-play ability. Goff isn't helped by having the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games. The Lions reflect their coach, blue collar Dan Campbell. They are grinders. Their defense doesn't have any playmakers, but can be counted on to provide a strong effort reflective of their coach. Detroit has held its last three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to 20.6 points a game. That figure would be even lower but the Ravens and Vikings kicked long field goals at the gun to take away two wins from the Lions. The Bengals have a below average offensive line and skill position injuries. Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury. His backup, Samaje Perine, is on the COVID list. Joe Burrow is playing on a surgically repaired left knee and was having trouble talking after getting hit in the throat last week.
10-17-21	Packers v. Bears UNDER 44.5		24-14	Win	100	66 h 24 m	Show
So far the Packers aren't the offensive powerhouse of a year ago. Left tackle David Bakhitari remains out and Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay's second best offensive lineman and most versatile, is questionable having missed the past couple of games. The Bears have shown a resurgency on defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are putting forth a strong pass rush and veteran linebacker Danny Trevathan is back playing, bolstering a strong crew. Chicago ranks eighth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Packers have been getting A.J. Dillon more involved in the offense. That's a plus for the Under as Dillon is a plodding north/south runner who keeps the clock moving with little threat of breaking off a big run. The Bears have become ultra-conservative with Justin Fields after the Browns held them to only 47 yards. Fields is averaging fewer than 20 throws and only three rushing attempts during his last three games. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are the Bears' two best weapons. Montgomery is out with a knee injury and the Andy Dalton/Fields quarterback situation has rendered Robinson nearly a non-entity. He hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in his last seven games, nor has he scored a TD.
10-17-21	Chiefs -6.5 v. Washington Football Team	Top	31-13	Win	100	66 h 52 m	Show
No surprise the Chiefs have been terrible on defense. Big surprise Washington is giving up the second-most points in the league at 31 per game. Washington has only three takeaways after recording 23 last season. The Chiefs' offense can cover for their defense. Washington's offense can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. That's asking way too much of erratic backup QB Taylor Heinicke, especially given that he could missing the right side of his offensive line with Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff out and tackle Sam Cosmi questionable. Kansas City should have its focus for this non-conference matchup coming off an embarrassing, 38-20, home loss on national TV to the Bills this past Sunday night. Washington was just picked apart by Jameis Winston in a 33-22 home loss to the Saints this past Sunday. Mahomes is far better than Winston and has far superior receiving weapons even if Tyreek Hill doesn't play. Washington has yet to get its secondary straightened out. Washington ranks last in home attendance so it doesn't have much of a home field advantage.
10-16-21	Hawaii +14.5 v. Nevada		17-34	Loss	-110	27 h 13 m	Show
Hawaii has the right ingredients to hang with Nevada. I'm fully expecting starting QB Chevan Cordeiro to be behind center. Head coach Todd Graham expects that, too. But I'm fine if the Rainbow Warriors have to use backup QB Brayden Schager, who threw a pair of TD passes and no interceptions in Hawaii's upset win against Fresno State, 27-24. That was two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors were idle last week. Hawaii has some underrated running backs in Dae Dae Hunter and Dedrick Parson, who can take advantage of Nevada's less-than-stellar run defense. The Warriors also have pass defense to bother Carson Strong. Hawaii has come up with 16 takeaways, which was tied for third-most in the nation entering Friday. The Wolfpack will have to contend with Calvin Turner Jr., perhaps the best all-around and most dynamic player in the Mountain West Conference. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the past five times.
10-16-21	Jets -130 v. Sharks		3-4	Loss	-130	4 h 29 m	Show
The Sharks were terrible last season finishing 3-14. San Jose doesn't look any better going into this season. If anything they could be even weaker in goal. They also don't have Evander Kane. Winnipeg is off a 4-1 loss to Anaheim from Wednesday. The Jets aren't going to lack motivation. They outshot the Ducks, 34-22. Now the Jets get back Mark Scheifele, who finished his four-game suspension by sitting out against the Ducks. The Jets have won the past four times in San Jose.
10-16-21	Dodgers v. Braves +122		2-3	Win	122	9 h 2 m	Show
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games.
10-16-21	Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5	Top	49-9	Win	100	26 h 16 m	Show
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	56 h 5 m	Show
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.
10-16-21	Rutgers -130 v. Northwestern		7-21	Loss	-130	25 h 56 m	Show
These two teams sit at the bottom of their respective divisions in the Big Ten. But there's a class difference here. Rutgers is much the better team. Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights on the path to respectability. Rutgers opened 3-0, but then had to play a gauntlet of Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. Rutgers has played a much tougher schedule than Northwestern. The Wildcats have just one win against an FBS team - and that was against Ohio, which is 1-5. The Wildcats have been outscored, 94-28, in their two Big Ten games losing to Michigan State and Nebraska. Rutgers has covered in its last seven road contests. That says something about the job Schiano is doing.
10-15-21	San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State	Top	19-13	Loss	-110	23 h 41 m	Show
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank. QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week. The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions.
10-15-21	Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167	Top	50-86	Win	100	19 h 17 m	Show
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll.
10-15-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5		4-5	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The combination of two of the best offenses in baseball facing starting pitchers not in good form puts me on the Over. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. The Red Sox had the third highest batting average and ranked fifth in runs. Boston is starting Chris Sale, who was last seen giving up five runs on four hits in just one inning against the Rays. Sale didn't pitch well either during his final regular season start against the Nationals pulled in the third inning. He's not backed by a strong bullpen either. The Astros are swinging hot bats averaging 7.7 runs in their last seven games. They have scored at least six runs in each of these games. Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He wasn't impressive in his last playoff start surrendering four runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Valdez has allowed eight runs this month in only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games.
10-15-21	Blackhawks v. Devils OVER 6		3-4	Win	100	4 h 20 m	Show
Even with the addition of Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury, the Blackhawks are going to have problems on defense. Chicago gave up four goals and 36 shots on net to the Avalanche in its opening game despite Colorado missing superstar scorer Nathan MacKinnon. This is the Devils' first game. They went 4-1 during preseason averaging 4.5 goals. They have a lot of young, promising goal scorers.