Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-01-21	Wright State v. Oakland OVER 149		90-51	Loss	-107	14 h 28 m	Show
When Oakland is in action, my first look always is to the Over. The matchup and betting line make Over a right play here. Oakland is a terrible defensive team. The Grizzlies give up 85.5 points a game, which ranks 327nd. They also are 326nd in defensive field goal percentage as opponents have made 50 percent of their field goals against them. Wright State has the offense to take advantage, which is why the Raiders are such a heavy road favorite. Wright State averages 79.3 points and rates 30th in field goal percentage. The Raiders like to push pace, which is OK by Oakland. The Over is 6-1 in the Raiders' last seven road contests. Oakland's scoring has picked up. The Grizzlies have produced at least 72 points in each of their last six games. The Over has cashed in eight of their past nine games. The teams met twice last season and the combined total was 159.5 points.
12-31-20	Northern Arizona v. Idaho +3.5		78-65	Loss	-110	15 h 56 m	Show
This is a bad versus bad Big Sky Conference matchup. So backing the home underdog makes sense especially given the situation and style of play. Northern Arizona is 1-6. The Lumberjacks play slow, are weak inside and can't shoot from the outside. Not exactly a good combination. They average just 58.6 points. So how bad is Idaho to be a home 'dog to this opponent? The Vandals are 0-5. But all of their games have been on the road. This is their first home game and it comes on New Year's Eve. That's certainly not a fun travel date for Northern Arizona. Idaho is the better defensive team. The Vandals also are a much better 3-point shooting team ranking 104th in 3-point percentage at 35.8 percent. The Lumberjacks are 319th in 3-point shooting percentage hitting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc. Idaho has more size than Northern Arizona. I realize nobody cares about this game, including the oddsmaker. But value is value and I don't see why Idaho should be an underdog here.
12-31-20	Knicks v. Raptors -9	Top	83-100	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
At 0-3, the Raptors are approaching this matchup with a great deal of urgency. I expect a circle-the-wagons type of performance from Toronto. If opponents treat the Knicks seriously then New York is in trouble. The Raptors won't be taking the 2-2 Knicks lightly even though they've defeated New York eight straight times. The Knicks have shown early improvement under Tom Thibodeau. They may not be quite the laughing stock of the past few seasons, but they still are a bottom-feeder. Toronto led the 76ers by 14 points in the second half during its last game two days ago. But the Raptors lost. The last time Toronto opened so poorly was 15 years ago. The Knicks's bench is extremely banged-up especially in the backcourt. Austin Rivers may be able to return from a groin injury that has kept him out, but Frank Ntiliikna and Dennis Smith are sidelined. Shooting guard Alec Burks, the Knicks' second-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
12-31-20	West Virginia -6.5 v. Army	Top	24-21	Loss	-116	23 h 39 m	Show
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack.
12-30-20	Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University	Top	68-84	Loss	-105	17 h 56 m	Show
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.
12-30-20	Hornets +8 v. Mavs		118-99	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
Most NBA teams have certain tendencies. Charlotte usually is tough as an underdog. The Hornets are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times catching points. They just knocked off the Nets, 106-104, as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. Dallas is good as an underdog, not so good as a home favorite and not very trustworthy following a victory. The Mavericks are coming off an historic, 124-73, road victory against the Clippers this past Sunday in which they led by an NBA-record 50 points at halftime. Now the Mavericks are playing their first home contest of the season after consecutive road games versus the much-improved Suns, defending world champion Lakers and Clippers. Dallas hosts Eastern Conference champion Miami on Friday. In between all of this is this game against the lowly Hornets. So the Mavericks' intensity and concentration level figures to be down. Dallas has covered just 29 percent of the time following a victory during the past 30 instances. Charlotte has some confidence following its victory against Brooklyn. The Hornets should get better as the season progresses integrating two significant newcomers, free agent Gordon Hayward and third overall draft pick LaMelo Ball. The timing of this matchup should result in a closer than expected contest.
12-30-20	North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +4		67-72	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Since opening with a four-overtime loss to Georgia State and a defeat to Mercer, Georgia Tech has gone 4-1 posting victories against Kentucky, Nebraska, Florida A&M and Delaware State. The Yellow Jackets are one of the most experienced teams in the country with four seniors and a junior composing their starting lineup. Each of Georgia Tech's starters average double figures in scoring. It's the reason why Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring at 82.7 points. Georgia Tech doesn't have a long bench. But this spot sets up well for the Yellow Jackets' starters to play huge minutes. Georgia Tech hasn't played in 10 days and won't be in action again for another three days. North Carolina has been very uneven this season. The Tar Heels have trailed by double-digits in six of their eight games.
12-30-20	Western Carolina +4 v. East Tennessee State		78-86	Loss	-109	15 h 53 m	Show
This has been a road team series with the visitor covering six of the last seven. I see that trend continuing. Western Carolina is 7-2. The two losses the Catamounts suffered were to Troy and VCU, two solid opponents. East Tennessee State hasn't played that tough of a schdule. The Bucs are 4-4 and in rebuilt mode having lost their coach and all five starters from last season. The Catamounts have too much scoring for East Tennessee State averaging 84 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. An outright victory would not surprise in the least.
12-30-20	Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest	Top	42-28	Win	100	29 h 52 m	Show
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
12-29-20	Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 223.5	Top	86-111	Win	100	19 h 46 m	Show
It's easy to think of a high-scoring game in a Pelicans-Suns matchup. Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram. These are all big-name scorers. But so far these two teams have shown drastic defensive improvement. How much? New Orleans gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and the Suns allow the second-fewest points in the league. Shocking, I know. The Pelicans' defensive improvement is not an early season fluke. New Orleans is better coached and stressing defense under new coach Stan Van Gundy. The Pelicans have slowed down their pace from last season when Alvin Gentry was their coach. The Suns are a work-in-progress with many new faces, including point guard Chris Paul. Part of why the Suns' defense is better is because their offense is slower tempo now with Paul running things.
12-29-20	Northeastern +18.5 v. West Virginia		51-73	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
West Virginia was supposed to host Buffalo today, but COVID-19 issues forced the Bulls to cancel. Instead the Mountaineers get Northeastern, a 1-4 team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Easy win for West Virginia, right? The oddsmaker sure thinks so with this large point spread. In my view, it's too big of a number. This is a combination of West Virginia being in a look-ahead spot and Northeastern being better than perceived. The Mountaineers open their Big 12 season following this game. Oklahoma looms on deck. So there's no reason for Bob Huggins to go all out against this non-league foe when he takes the big picture into account. The Huskies split against UMass. They also covered road games versus Syracuse and Old Dominion. The Huskies were leading Georgia by 15 points in the second half as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs in their last game before going frigid and falling, 76-58. Bottom line, I see Northeastern being a tougher out than this point spread indicates.
12-28-20	Pistons +9.5 v. Hawks	Top	120-128	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
Atlanta is 2-0 with a pair of road wins. But before rushing off to claim how good the Hawks have become, do realize a couple of things: Those victories have been against winless Memphis and winless Chicago, who right now is the worst team in the NBA. Trae Young is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Young is an emerging superstar, but he's not nearly that accurate from the floor. He shot 43.7 percent last season from the field. The Pistons should have defeated the Cavaliers in their last game this past Saturday, but lost in double-overtime after leading by eight with three minutes left. Detroit has enjoyed recent success against Atlanta. The Pistons are 4-2 in their last six games against the Hawks, including winning the most recent time. That was a 136-103 blowout victory in Atlanta last January. The Hawks have a number of injured players, including center Clint Capela. Atlanta plays at the Nets on Wednesday. So it's not inconceivable that the Hawks may be looking past the Pistons to a much bigger game. The Hawks aren't good enough to do that and cover a spread this large.
12-28-20	NJIT +12 v. Vermont	Top	81-80	Win	100	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer.
12-27-20	Titans v. Packers UNDER 54		14-40	Push	0	11 h 19 m	Show
Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph. Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game. Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under.
12-27-20	Warriors -3 v. Bulls		129-128	Loss	-112	14 h 38 m	Show
Both Golden State and Chicago are 0-2. All of these losses were by blowouts, too. But there's a major difference. The Warriors were buried by the Bucks and Nets, probably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls lost big to the Pacers and Hawks. Billy Donovan certainly has his work cut out for him in his first season as Bulls coach. Chicago surrendered 124 points to the Hawks and 125 to the Pacers. Defense is a real problem for the Bulls. The loss to the Pacers came on Saturday. The Warriors are the more rested team having last played on Friday. Center James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, already is displaying his potential scoring 18 and 19 points, respectively, during his first two NBA games. Stephen Curry gives the Warriors the best player on the court by far and there's a good chance Draymond Green makes his season debut here for the Warriors. Big coaching edge, too, for the Warriors right now with Steve Kerr against Donovan.
12-27-20	76ers -6 v. Cavs		94-118	Loss	-105	13 h 10 m	Show
The 76ers were one of the worst road teams in the league last season going 10-24 before entering bubble play. Philadelphia is at least two levels higher than Cleveland. But dare we trust the 76ers to cover this mid-sized number on the road? The answer is yes. The 76ers are in a good early place right now under new coach Doc Rivers, with Ben Simmons healthy and added perimeter shooters to take the double-team pressure off Joel Embiid. These elements all were in play when the 76ers rolled past the Knicks, 109-89, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Because of the blowout, Embiid got to rest for much of the second half playing less than 31 minutes. The Cavaliers also played on Saturday. They went double overtime to beat the Pistons, 128-119, in Detroit. Cleveland opened its season with a win against the Hornets. So the Cavaliers are in a rare fat and happy mood. They had four starters log more than 41 minutes against the Pistons. Kevin Love returned from a calf injury that kept him out of the Hornets game to play more than 37 minutes. So his minutes could be limited.
12-27-20	Browns -9.5 v. Jets	Top	16-23	Loss	-110	79 h 24 m	Show
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league?
12-27-20	Drake -3 v. Indiana State		81-63	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
Drake is 9-0. The Bulldogs have played seven lined games - and covered every one of them. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs so I'm going to ride their unbeaten streak. Drake is consistent on both ends of the floor ranking 26th in scoring and 26th in defensive scoring. The Bulldogs also have the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the country. Roman Penn gives them the best point guard on the floor in this matchup. Drake has held its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points. Indiana State is a perimeter shooting team. The Sycamores, though, are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point shooting. Their defense is even worse. They rank 282th in defensive field goal percentage and 299th in 3-point defense.
12-26-20	Raptors -109 v. Spurs		114-119	Loss	-109	19 h 14 m	Show
Too much emphasis is being put on these two team's opening game. The Spurs were sharp in their first game beating Memphis, 131-119, on the road this past Wednesday. The Raptors were embarrassed, 113-99, by the Pelicans in their opener. This doesn't change the fact that the Raptors are a much better team than the Spurs. Toronto was the top defensive team in the league last season. The Raptors also tied with the Lakers for the best road mark in the NBA last season at 27-9. Toronto is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 away contests.
12-26-20	Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls		125-106	Win	100	19 h 45 m	Show
Maybe the Bulls will be better under their new coach, Billy Donovan. But that time isn't now. Chicago was horrendous in its opening game surrendering 83 points in the first half of a 124-104 home loss to the Hawks. The Bulls are brutal as home 'dogs failing to cover 24 of the past 33 times in that role. Indiana has been very strong as road chalk going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when favored on the road. The Pacers have reached the playoffs each of the past four seasons. The Bulls last made the postseason in 2017. Nate Bjorkgren had a successful Indiana coaching debut this past Wednesday. The Pacers took care of business with a 121-107 home win against the Knicks. Now Indiana draws another Eastern Conference bottom feeder. I don't see the Bulls doing any better than the Knicks did against the Pacers especially with Victor Oladipo finally appearing fully healthy.
12-26-20	Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5	Top	37-34	Loss	-107	16 h 0 m	Show
What we have in this Cure Bowl matchup of Liberty versus Coastal Carolina is two strong defensive teams going against slow-tempo, run-oriented offenses. So I find this total excessively high. Liberty gives up the seventh-fewest yards and 10th-fewest passing yards in the nation. The Flames have held their foes to an average of 19.2 points per game. Coastal Carolina has been even stingier limiting their opponents to just 18.7 points a game. The Chanticleers could take advantage of a rusty Liberty offense as the Flames last played back on Nov. 27 and that game was against the worst Division I team in college football, Massachusetts. Both teams ranked among the bottom 30 in college football in terms of pace.
12-26-20	Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne	Top	102-88	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
12-26-20	Hawks v. Grizzlies -114		122-112	Loss	-114	16 h 43 m	Show
The Grizzlies want to get things right after losing, 131-119, at home to the Spurs as short favorites in their opener this past Wednesday. Memphis catches Atlanta a bit fat after the Hawks rolled past the Bulls, 124-104, on the road in their Wednesday opening game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points. They also draw the Hawks dealing with multiple injuries. Atlanta is down point guards Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn. The Hawks also could be without sharp-shooting forward Danilo Gallinari and center Clint Capela. Both are doubtful. Memphis had no problem handling the Hawks last season winning by 39 and 17 points, respectively. Ja Mortant had big games against the Hawks and already looks in great form scoring 44 points in this season's opener. Center Jonas Valanciunas is another matchup problem for Atlanta. Valanciunas is in line for another big performance especially if Capela can't play due to an Achilles injury.
12-26-20	49ers v. Cardinals -5	Top	20-12	Loss	-107	59 h 15 m	Show
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
12-25-20	Nets -3 v. Celtics		123-95	Win	100	13 h 37 m	Show
I consider the Nets a level higher than Boston given a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while Boston no longer has Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker is out. Early money in the marketplace agrees as the Nets have been pushed up to this point spread range. It's justified. The Nets are the better team and they want to make an early statement in proof of that. This is their chance being on national TV on Christmas Day. The Nets haven't played on Christmas Day since 2013. This also is Irving's first regular season game against his former team. Brooklyn built a 38-point lead against Golden State in its opener this past Tuesday, winning 125-99. The takeaways from that game were not just Irving and Durant looking good, but that the Nets had 28 fast-break points, seven blocks and 11 steals. The Celtics pulled off a dramatic, 122-121, home win against the defending Eastern Conference champion Bucks this past Wednesday. I see the Nets not just as the more talented team, but also the more motivated. They also have the deeper bench.
12-25-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 50	Top	33-52	Win	100	36 h 33 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks. The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time. The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury. A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week. The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week. Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over.
12-25-20	Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5		85-76	Loss	-110	10 h 14 m	Show
The teams split their two meetings last season. There were a combined 122 and 127 points scored in those games. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup again in today's matchup. Neither team is used to playing on Christmas Day. This is a very early start time, too. The game is being nationally televised and there will be fans in the stand. I consider all of these factors as additional pluses for an Under. Wisconsin is the top defensive team in the Big Ten. The Badgers give up 57.5 points, which is the 14th stingiest defense in the nation. The Badgers have excellent size up front. So I don't see the Spartans getting many second-chance opportunities. The Spartans' leading scorer, Joey Hauser, also is dealing with a sore knee. Michigan State should play with tremendous defensive intensity following a lackluster, 79-65, road loss to Northwestern to open its Big 10 season this past Sunday. Tom Izzo called that game one of the worst of his 26 seasons coaching.
12-24-20	Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston	Top	28-14	Win	100	25 h 41 m	Show
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games.
12-23-20	Mavs +1 v. Suns		102-106	Loss	-110	9 h 7 m	Show
The Suns were great in the bubble to finish last season. But I don't consider them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas is a very strong road club. The Mavericks won 23 of 37 away games last season. The Mavericks have the superior coach in Rick Carlisle, have better continuity and a deeper roster. This is the Suns' first game with new point guard Chris Paul, and he's not at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. The Suns also won't have injured Dario Saric.
12-23-20	New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 141	Top	52-89	Push	0	17 h 32 m	Show
Boise State is going to factor in the Mountain West Conference and it's because of defense. Only 20 teams yield fewer points per game than the Broncos, who are holding foes to 59 points. The Broncos just beat New Mexico, 77-53, on Monday. The Lobos had scored 72, 104 and 90 during their previous three games although that came against extremely weak competition. But it's not just New Mexico. In its previous two games, Boise State held BYU eight points under its scoring average and kept Weber State 21 points under its scoring average. Defense should prevail again in this quick rematch since the teams are familiar with each other. New Mexico heavily relies upon Makuach Maluach, who averages 17 points. The Broncos held him to 13 points on 41.7 percent shooting. The Lobos lack any other consistent scorers. The Lobos are not a quick pace team so that's another plus for the Under. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Lobos' last seven games. Boise State has been a big Under team, too, with 12 of its last 15 games going below the total, including the last six at home.
12-23-20	Bucks -3.5 v. Celtics		121-122	Loss	-107	17 h 8 m	Show
The Bucks compiled the best regular season record at 56-17 last season. Milwaukee, though, was taken out in the playoffs by the Heat. So the Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, armed with a contract extension, are anxious to begin a new season. They were a level higher than Boston last season and could be two levels higher right now given that the Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Milwaukee has the stronger bench and firepower as the Celtics don't offer much once you get past Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
12-23-20	Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225	Top	121-122	Loss	-105	17 h 4 m	Show
The Celtics' firepower is down right now minus departed Gordon Hayward and injured Kemba Walker. The Celtics don't have much scoring outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics added Tristan Thompson, who is good for the Under being a defensive-oriented big man. The Celtics gave up the fewest points per game in the playoffs and ranked No. 2 in scoring defense during the regular season last year at 107.3. The Bucks are adjusting to a new point guard, Jrue Holiday, and have brought in many new bench players. So Milwaukee's offense is in transition right now.
12-23-20	Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis	Top	10-25	Loss	-116	13 h 54 m	Show
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points.
12-23-20	Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5		52-62	Loss	-107	12 h 49 m	Show
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete.
12-22-20	Warriors v. Nets -6.5	Top	99-125	Win	100	37 h 36 m	Show
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench.
12-22-20	Sacred Heart v. Wagner UNDER 139		86-85	Loss	-108	13 h 52 m	Show
The teams just Monday and there was a combined 120 points scored in Wagner's 74-46 blowout win. Sacred Heart should play with a lot of intensity in this shortest of revenge spots especially after being humiliated. The Pioneers forced nearly 14 turnovers a game. A key takeaway from that game was the slow tempo. Wagner is a slow tempo team. That's the way Sacred Heart is playing this year, too, being very inexperienced. The Under has cashed in 20 of Sacred Heart's last 28 games. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wagner's last 26 games. Sacred Heart ranks 327th in field goal shooting percentage. Wagner doesn't shoot much better ranking 300th.
12-22-20	Tulane v. Nevada +2.5		27-38	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
This is a bad matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave of New Orleans are making a long journey into cold weather where the temperature is going to be in the 20's and the winds will be flapping at 15-25 mph. Nevada is well familiar with the special blue turf and field conditions in Boise State's home stadium, site of the Potato Bowl. The Wolf Pack have a monster passing edge with Carson Strong, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. He led the conference in completions, completion percentage, TD's and passing yards. Strong has two all-conference receiving targets in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The Wolf Pack also have all-conference placekicker Brandon Talton. Tulane could be down three starting defensive linemen with two of its starters definitely ruled out. The Green Wave struggled against strong passing opponents. Central Florida put up 51 points on Tulane while Houston scored 49 points on the Green Wave. The Green Wave are run-oriented, but that's Nevada's defensive strength. Tulane lost its up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Will Hall. He left to become head coach at Southern Mississippi. Tulane's defensive coordinator was fired so the Green Wave are without both of their coordinators.
12-22-20	Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield		69-65	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers.
12-22-20	SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State		66-72	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten.
12-21-20	Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay	Top	70-74	Loss	-110	17 h 35 m	Show
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them.
12-21-20	North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68.5		28-56	Loss	-110	3 h 58 m	Show
This total keeps getting pushed up higher. It's high enough now where I'm going to get involved in the Under. Yes, Appalachian State is going to produce a lot of points with an offense that averages 31.8 points and is facing a weak North Texas defense. But it takes scoring from both teams to go above a total this big. I don't see North Texas contributing its share of points. The Mountaineers have held opponents to 19.3 points a game. They rank 12th in fewest yards allowed at 312 a game. North Texas won't have its starting quarterback, Austin Aune, nor its most dynamic player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, who set a school record with 19 TD catches this season.
12-20-20	Weber State -5 v. Portland State		72-74	Loss	-111	9 h 8 m	Show
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number.
12-20-20	Bears v. Vikings OVER 46.5		33-27	Win	100	99 h 49 m	Show
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season. Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success. Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses.
12-20-20	Texans v. Colts -7		20-27	Push	0	99 h 47 m	Show
The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
12-20-20	Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team		20-15	Loss	-109	47 h 53 m	Show
Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State +7		46-33	Loss	-100	31 h 36 m	Show
Oregon State beat Arizona State at home last season and the Beavers can do it again this season even if their star running back, Jermar Jefferson, can't play because of an ankle injury. It's an added plus if Jefferson can play after suffering the injury last Saturday. The Beavers and UCLA were the only two Pac-12 schools not to have their schedule and routine thrown out of whack because of COVID-19. Oregon State has played six games going 2-4. Note that all but one of those defeats came by six points or fewer. Arizona State is 1-2. The Sun Devils are off a monster win against in-state and Pac-12 rival Arizona, 70-7, last week. That victory left the Sun Devils feeling very smug and satisfied. It puts them in a potential letdown spot. Oregon State has been competitive all season. The Beavers are well-coached by Jonathan Smith. They have covered four of their last five games.
12-19-20	Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 55		46-33	Loss	-110	21 h 6 m	Show
There are many reasons to like this total Under. A main one being weather. The forecast is a 100 percent chance of rain with wind in the 10-20 mph range. Arizona State's offensive statistics are skewed from last week's 70-point performance against mistake-prone Arizona. The Sun Devils' offense isn't nearly that good and they are not up-tempo. The Sun Devils hold opponents to 20 points a game, which is the best in the Pac-12. Oregon State is down two of their starting wide receivers, Trevon Bradford and Champ Flemings. The Beavers' star running back, Jermar Jefferson, is questionable with an ankle injury sustained last week. Oregon State figures to run the ball a lot with or without Jefferson.
12-19-20	St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova		68-88	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score.
12-19-20	Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford		75-78	Loss	-110	8 h 23 m	Show
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions.
12-19-20	Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona		80-64	Win	100	7 h 26 m	Show
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday.
12-19-20	Bills -6.5 v. Broncos	Top	48-19	Win	100	78 h 18 m	Show
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
12-19-20	Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany		65-64	Loss	-115	9 h 37 m	Show
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC.
12-19-20	Ole Miss -115 v. LSU		48-53	Loss	-115	24 h 1 m	Show
LSU had its signature victory upsetting Florida, 37-34, as a monster underdog last week. The Tigers were very fortunate to win that game since they were outgained by nearly 200 yards and gave up 8.9 yards per play while having just 4.9 yards per play. The Tigers are in a huge letdown spot and have nothing to play for since they have a self-imposed bowl ban. The Tigers will put up plenty of points, but I don't see them keeping up with Mississippi. The Rebels are averaging 39.8 points and rank third in the nation in total yards. LSU allows 33.4 points and is 127th in the country in total defense. The Rebels will be the far fresher team having last played on Nov. 28. They have had plenty of time to study and prepare for this matchup and unlike LSU they are not in letdown spot.
12-19-20	Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5		88-78	Loss	-110	10 h 55 m	Show
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance.
12-18-20	Weber State v. Portland State OVER 147.5	Top	94-66	Win	100	15 h 43 m	Show
Neither team was sharp offensively in their last game. Weber State scored just 59 points in an 11-point road loss to Boise State. Portland State suffered a nine-point road defeat to Washington State scoring only 60 points. I expect both Weber State and Portland State to score far more points than it did in those games as each is stepping down in class in this Big Sky Conference matchup. Weber State has a high-scoring guard , Isiah Brown. He's averaging 24.3 points. The Wildcats scored 88 and 85 points, respectively, in their first two games against lesser competition before running into Boise State. The Over has cashed in 12 of Weber State's last 16 games following a loss. Portland State produced 88 points in its last game versus a weaker foe before it met Washington State. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last nine home contests.
12-18-20	Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5	Top	28-21	Loss	-104	38 h 33 m	Show
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
12-17-20	Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4		48-51	Loss	-109	17 h 37 m	Show
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent.
12-17-20	Chargers v. Raiders OVER 53	Top	30-27	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay. The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr. Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader. Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games. Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion. I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.
12-17-20	St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel		77-81	Loss	-105	14 h 38 m	Show
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings.
12-16-20	Samford -120 v. Troy State	Top	71-79	Loss	-120	17 h 21 m	Show
Samford has gotten my attention with its last two games. The Bulldogs upset Belmont, 96-83, as 17 1/2-point road 'dogs and hung in against Georgia, in a 79-75 defeat, as 18-point road 'dogs despite not shooting well from the floor. Troy has played far easier competition in its last two games. Samford is far more explosive than the Trojans averaging 30 more points per game. This is a step down game for Samford and a step up game for Troy. The point spread is ripe to get involved with Samford.
12-16-20	St Francis NY v. Central Connecticut State OVER 154		59-78	Loss	-110	9 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met each other on Tuesday and St. Francis won, 91-86. That's a total of 177 points. The takeaway from that game was the uptempo pace and neither team showing much, if any, defense. Connecticut State has given up at least 79 points in all six of its six games. St. Francis averages 88.7 points in its three games. So it's perplexing that this game opened with such a low total.
12-15-20	Indiana State v. St. Louis OVER 140		59-78	Loss	-105	15 h 16 m	Show
Saint Louis is a run-and-gun team. Only 11 teams score more points per game than the Billikens, who average 92.3. They have five players averaging in double figures headed by Javonte Perkins. The Billikens are guard-oriented. They shoot and make a lot of 3-pointers. Indiana State ranks 300th in defensive field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point defense. Indiana State just lost 80-68 to Purdue this past Saturday. That game went Over by 11 points. The Boilermakers were averaging 61 points during their previous two games. The pace was fast in that game so that's a good sign for this one to go Over, too.
12-15-20	SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville		63-66	Push	0	14 h 18 m	Show
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville.
12-15-20	Longwood +4.5 v. Radford		53-62	Loss	-105	13 h 15 m	Show
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests.
12-15-20	Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH		90-62	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season.
12-14-20	Longwood +3.5 v. Radford	Top	66-67	Win	105	14 h 22 m	Show
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.
12-13-20	Steelers v. Bills -2.5		15-26	Win	100	103 h 52 m	Show
Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
12-13-20	Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3		23-15	Loss	-120	99 h 43 m	Show
Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
12-13-20	Colts -2.5 v. Raiders		44-27	Win	100	99 h 31 m	Show
The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
12-13-20	Texans v. Bears +1.5		7-36	Win	100	95 h 29 m	Show
I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
12-13-20	Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins	Top	33-27	Loss	-110	95 h 15 m	Show
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk.
12-13-20	Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern	Top	75-78	Loss	-112	10 h 55 m	Show
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	66 h 14 m	Show
San Diego State completely shut down Zach Wilson and BYU's offense last season in a 13-3 home victory. While I highly doubt the Aztecs hold the Cougars to three points this time, I do expect a low-scoring game with BYU struggling to solve San Diego State's defense again. The Cougars were held 17 points in losing to Coastal Carolina this past Saturday. San Diego State has better defensive numbers than Coastal Carolina ranking eighth in scoring defense giving up 16.3 points and third in total defense holding foes to 269.1 yards. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Aztecs' last 11 road games. Wilson draws a lot of media attention, but BYU has a strong defense allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. The Cougars are seventh in total defense allowing 299.9 yards per contest. The Aztecs are very weak offensively especially their passing attack, which ranks 119th. San Diego State's game plan is to keep the clocking moving by running the ball and playing for field position trying to make sure BYU has long stretches to go.
12-12-20	Louisiana Tech +21.5 v. TCU		10-52	Loss	-108	53 h 51 m	Show
You can't blame TCU if it doesn't get excited about this matchup. The Horned Frogs are off a huge 29-22 home win against then 15th-ranked Oklahoma State last Saturday. This is their only nonconference matchup of the season. Louisiana Tech is the much fresher team. The Bulldogs have played just once since November and that was last Friday when they defeated North Texas. 42-31, on the road. The Bulldogs can score averaging just under 32 points per game. They are 27-11 ATS the past 38 times as a road 'dog. TCU has not shined as home chalk going 5-21 ATS the last 26 times as a home favorite.
12-12-20	Navy v. Army -7		0-15	Win	100	60 h 14 m	Show
Many key factors point to Army being the right side, including getting to host this annual rivalry. It's the first time since 1943 the teams aren't facing each other at a neutral site. Along with home field advantage, Army is in much better current form than Navy. The Black Knights are 5-1 in their last six games. Navy has dropped four in a row. These teams are all about running the football. Army exceeds, Navy doesn't. The Black Knights are the No. 3 rushing team in the country. They are No. 1 in rushing TD's with 31.Navy is 109th in run defense. Army ranks 23rd in run defense. The Black Knights have permitted only five rushing TD's. Navy still hasn't settled on a quarterback. The Midshipmen have produced just 13 points in their last two games against Memphis and Tulsa.
12-12-20	Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135	Top	85-82	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
After opening with three home games, Dayton is playing on the road for the first time. The Flyers have failed to break the 66-point barrier in any of their games going against Eastern Illinois, SMU and Northern Kentucky. SMU ranks 91st in scoring defense, Northern Kentucky rates 170th in scoring defense and Eastern Illinois is 192nd. So it's not like the Flyers have played outstanding defensive opponents. Dayton is committing an average of 18.7 turnovers a game. So this has hampered the Flyers' offense. Mississippi State is the best defensive team the Flyers have faced. The Bulldogs rank 56th in scoring defense. Mississippi State does not play at a fast pace. The Bulldogs lost much of their offense from last season. This game is being played at neutral site Atlanta so that's a plus for the Under, too.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 61.5		7-56	Loss	-115	110 h 59 m	Show
At first glance this total may seem a little low considering Buffalo beat Kent State, 70-41, in its last game. But Akron is an entirely different opponent. The Zips may not even score. That was the case in last year's game. Buffalo blanked them, 21-0. That total was just 48. Buffalo remains a power in the Mid-American Conference. Akron remains terrible. But this year's total is much higher. I don't think that's justified. Yes, Buffalo can name its score here. The Bulls are going to destroy Akron. But to what extent? The Zips are in the argument for worst offense in the country. They rank 120th in total yards and 114th in scoring averaging 19.2 points. Buffalo is holding foes to an average of 24.5 points - and that's after surrendering 41 to Kent State. The Bulls held Bowling Green to 17 points and Miami of Ohio to 10 in their previous two games. Akron has been a huge Under team. The Under has cashed in 69 percent of its last 51 games. The last four in this series have gone Under. The weather forecast is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with 12-15 mph winds. More ammunition to play Under.
12-12-20	Utah +1 v. Colorado		38-21	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Colorado is a surprising 4-0. But I don't expect to see the Buffaloes remaining unbeaten after this game. Their record is impressive, but their play hasn't been that stellar. Colorado also has caught some lucky breaks. UCLA committed four turnovers against Colorado. Arizona was going with a freshman backup QB making his first start when it played the Buffaloes. Yet Colorado still needed a goal line stand to help hold off the Wildcats. San Diego State was riddled with injuries and had to play at Colorado on short notice and Stanford outscored the Buffaloes in the second half in losing by three points. I'm not impressed with Colorado QB Sam Noyer, who has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Utes are better in the trenches, especially their run defense which holds foes to 3.6 yards per rush. Ty Jordan is one of the better freshmen running backs in the country and veteran transfer QB Jake Bentley has a strong arm. He can take advantage of Colorado's inconsistent defense.
12-12-20	Michigan State +15.5 v. Penn State		24-39	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
Don't sleep on Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry matchup. The Spartans were smashed, 52-12, by Ohio State last week. The Spartans weren't going to win that game even if their QB, Rocky Lombardi, didn't get knocked out. But there is an overcorrection in the line for this game. Penn State isn't very good this season especially on offense. Michigan State still is worthy of respect. Let's not forget the Spartans own a blowout win against Michigan and a victory versus Big 10 West champion Northwestern. I'm fine if Payton Thorne is Michigan State's QB if Lombardi can't go. The Nittany Lions are 2-5. Their victories have come against Michigan and Rutgers. Penn State is averaging a meager 23 points in their last six games. Sean Clifford has endured a terrible season and the Nittany Lions have been without RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth. The weapons haven't been there. Penn State has given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 15 times in its seven games. Michigan State has seven sacks in its last two games.
12-12-20	Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida		56-58	Win	100	7 h 47 m	Show
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games.
12-12-20	Florida +3 v. Florida State		71-83	Loss	-109	7 h 57 m	Show
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots.
12-11-20	Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5	Top	60-69	Win	100	19 h 49 m	Show
Marquette remains a very good team, but the Golden Eagles are a different kind of good team from last season since they no longer have superstar Markus Howard. Howard led the nation in scoring last season. The Golden Eagles go all the way down from Howard averaging nearly 30 points a game to Koby McEwen, who leads Marquette in scoring at 16.6. The Golden Eagles use more motion offense now with frequent passing that leads to a balanced attack and takes time off the clock. The result is they've dropped 81 spots in terms of tempo ranking 141st in pace. Marquette has played five games. This is the Golden Eagles' first road road matchup. So I expect them to play even more cautious and deliberate especially given that UCLA is a high-scoring team. The Bruins, however, are stepping up against a much stronger defensive foe than they've encountered. Marquette ranks 17th in defensive field goal percentage. UCLA is talented, too, on the defensive end. The key in accessing the Bruins is their pace. Second-year UCLA coach Mick Cronin wants to take advantage of his team's quality depth by playing up-tempo. So far, though, that hasn't transpired as the Bruins rate among the bottom 20 percent in pace.
12-11-20	Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon		77-87	Loss	-110	18 h 13 m	Show
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5	Top	3-24	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year. Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games. New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks. The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games. The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
12-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech OVER 54.5		34-20	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
Georgia Tech is giving up an average of 41.3 points during its last eight games. The Yellow Jackets are short-handed in the secondary and their defense is running on fumes as this marks their third game in 13 days. Yellow Jackets QB Jeff Sims, though, should be able to pass on Pittsburgh. Sims is a dual threat. He's rushed for 478 yards and thrown for 1,643. Pittsburgh is geared to stop the run. The Panthers rank 82nd in pass defense. The Over has cashed in each of the Panthers' last seven games. Look for that trend to continue here.
12-10-20	Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona		74-50	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
12-09-20	Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley		81-71	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too.
12-09-20	Furman +4 v. Cincinnati	Top	73-78	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game.
12-08-20	Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette		68-82	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number.
12-08-20	Green Bay v. Marquette UNDER 153.5	Top	68-82	Win	100	15 h 5 m	Show
Marquette is learning to adjust to life post Markus Howard, who was the leading college basketball scorer last season averaging 27.8 points. The Golden Eagles' leading scorer so far this season is Koby McEwan at 13.8. The Golden Eagles are more defensive-minded and passing the ball more now that they no longer have superstar Howard. Green Bay is likely to slow the pace, which will be OK with Marquette. The Phoenix averaged just 55.5 points in losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
12-07-20	Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona		53-96	Loss	-110	16 h 26 m	Show
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach.
12-07-20	Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147	Top	64-76	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
My first look in rivalry matchups such as this is to the Under. The more I study this game the clearer it becomes that Under is the right play. Hampton is down four of its top six scorers from last season, including Jermaine Morrow and Ben Stanley. Those two combined to average nearly 47 points a game. The Pirates like to play inside to their strength. That means more of a half-court game and slower pace. Norfolk State usually is one of the top defensive teams in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference. Defense, not offense, is the Spartans' calling card. The teams met last season and Hampton won, 64-53, at home. That game went Under by 25 1/2 points.
12-06-20	Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State		98-92	Win	100	16 h 44 m	Show
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise.
12-06-20	Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals	Top	38-28	Win	100	133 h 8 m	Show
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	60 h 9 m	Show
Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games. The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November. Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games. The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games. The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
12-06-20	Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver		83-63	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days.
12-06-20	Colts -3 v. Texans		26-20	Win	100	57 h 58 m	Show
Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51		26-20	Win	100	57 h 53 m	Show
These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other. The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes. Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less.
12-06-20	Lions v. Bears -3		34-30	Loss	-110	57 h 48 m	Show
Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog.
12-05-20	South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	67-77	Loss	-110	14 h 56 m	Show
Only five teams have surrendered fewer points per game than Houston. The 3-0 Cougars have held their foes to 52 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the floor while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per game. Houston has become much more of a half-court team slowing down pace. That has factored into the Cougars' strong defensive showing. South Carolina has been slow to begin the season without getting to play any exhibition games. The Gamecocks are averaging 65.5 points in losing 78-62 to Liberty and beating Tulsa, 69-58. The Gamecocks are better on defense than they are on offense. Games played at Houston historically are lower-scoring than projected. The Under is 21-7-1 in the Cougars' last 29 home contests.