I'm surprised to see this total open so low. Northwestern has some excellent skill position talent. If you discount games against Ohio State and Wisconsin - both of whom have vastly better defenses than Minnesota - the Wildcats are averaging 39.7 points in their last four games. Wildcats QB Clayton Thorson is coming off a career-high 352 yards throwing while accounting for four touchdowns against Purdue. 
Minnesota averages just a shade under 32 points per game. If you discount a 14-7 defeat to Iowa in Week 5, the Gophers have averaged 39.4 points at home against five opponents. 
The Gophers feature one of the best running backs in the country, Rodney Smith. He's rushed for more than 1,000 yards, averages 5.2 yards a carry and has scored 14 touchdowns. 

Duke knows how to win on the road, can take advantage of a weak Pittsburgh secondary and catches the Panthers off a huge upset victory against Clemson. 

The Panthers give up the second-most passing yards in the country and just lost safety and leading tackler Jordan Whitehead. He's out with an arm injury. 

Going back the last three years, Duke is 14-6 away from home. Pitt hasn't been good at home failing to cover in 16 of its last 21 home contests. 

As the competition gets worse, Wisconsin's offense gets rolling. The Badgers rushed for 363 yards against Illinois last week in a 48-3 victory. Now the Badgers draw even a worst defense - Purdue. The Boilermakers defense is just worn down. In their last three games, they've surrendered 62 points to Penn State, 44 to Minnesota and 45 to Northwestern. Only nine teams give up more points per game than Purdue at 38.4.  
The Badgers have a top running back, Corey Clement, to take advantage. After a slow start, Clement has come on to rush for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. 
Unlike Illinois, Purdue does have a clue on offense. The Boilermakers have scored at least 31 points in half of their last six games. The Boilermakers have that perfect combination for going over the total - a bad defense and decent offense. That's why the over has cashed in eight of Purdue's past nine Big Ten games. 

Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez.
UNLV hasn't lost by more than 23 points in any game this season and it has played some decent competition, including UCLA, Central Michigan, San Diego State and Colorado State. This is a rare nationally televised game (ESPN2) for the Rebels. Sanchez is an excellent recruiter and needs his team to be competitive to help boost recruiting. 

If the Rebels were to spring the upset they would keep alive their bowl chances. UNLV has proven itself when stepping up. The Rebels just defeated Wyoming, 69-66, in triple overtime racking up 653 yards of total offense, including 401 rushing yards. The Rebels rank 14th in the nation in rushing and found the right quarterback as Kurt Palandech accounted for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and running for another 157 against Wyoming in his first start. 
Wyoming beat Boise State just three weeks ago. The Broncos can be run on. San Jose State proved that rushing for 217 yards against them. So did New Mexico, which piled up 382 yards on the ground.
Boise State is explosive but not the powerhouse of previous seasons. The Broncos often are overpriced especially when playing at home. That's the case again here. The Broncos have failed to cover their last eight home games. They are 7-22 ATS at home the past 29 times facing opponents with a losing road record. Boise State played at Hawaii last week and have a bigger game on deck next week playing at Air Force. That's the Broncos revenge game of the year as Air Force beat them in Boise last season.   

The Broncos are going to need to force turnovers to cover a four-touchdown spread against this underrated opponent. Yet Boise State only has seven takeaways on the season. Just two teams in the entire FBS - which is composed of 128 teams - have fewer takeaways. 

Not only is Portland a better team than the Pelicans, who are tied for the worst record in the NBA, but there's a chance New Orleans could be minus Anthony Davis again.
Davis sat out New Orleans' last game this past Wednesday with a quad injury. Jrue Holiday does return for Pelicans. This will be his season debut, but he figures to be rusty.
The Trail Blazers hold a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' front line lacks star power, but there's depth and cohesion. 
Portland has beaten New Orleans in eight of the past 10 meetings. The Trail Blazers should be motivated after getting blown out by the Rockets to start their five-game road trip. 
The Trail Blazers own road victories against the Nuggets, Mavericks and Grizzlies - all better teams than the Pelicans. 

Early betting activity has driven this number down. The Cavaliers are 6-1 at home but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. 
I don't see the Cavaliers being overpriced here, though. 
The Cavaliers should be properly motivated and their superstars should log major minutes. LeBron James sat out Cleveland's last game. That was two nights ago when the Pacers upset the Cavaliers, 103-93, in Indiana. The Cavaliers don't play again until Wednesday following this game. 
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games going back to last season. The Pistons are your classic good home team/bad road club. Detroit is giving up an average of 20 more points per game on the road while shooting 11 percent worst from the floor away from The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons have been on the road now in six of their last seven games. 
The Pistons last played on Wednesday losing to the Knicks, 105-102, at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons couldn't defend Kristaps Porzingis in that loss and also were outrebounded, 52-40. Andre Drummond returned for that game from an ankle injury. You have to wonder if he's 100 percent, though. The Pistons remain without their leading scorer and top point guard, Reggie Jackson. 

I understand this is a high road price to lay, but I want the Penguins going for me in this matchup and spot. 
The Penguins are coming off an embarrassing 7-1 road loss to the Capitals two days ago. That was the defending Stanley Cup champions first of three straight road games. This is the middle one. 
Even with that defeat, Pittsburgh still has won 40 of its last 56 games. The Penguins, by the way, are 7-0 in those rare instances when they lose by three or more goals. 
The Penguins won't have Patric Hornqvist, their third-leading goal scorer. He suffered a concussion against the Capitals. The Penguins, though, held a team meeting before Thursday's practice. They are at their best under adversity. 
The Penguins also are playing a weak opponent.  
The Islanders are 2-8 in their last 10 games with three losses in a row. This has coincided with their best player, John Tavares, scoring only one goal in his last nine games.

Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference.  

The Huskies were rated 16th in the nation entering the season, but are 0-2 for the first time since 1968 with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern this past Monday. Obviously the Huskies have under performed. Taking to the road could be good for the Huskies in this instance. Certainly a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming here. That should be enough as there is quite a talent gap.
"I'm very positive we can get out of this," Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie was quoted as saying. "I didn't want to be in this position, but I've been here before. I believe in myself, and I believe in this team."
Mike Dunlap is in his third season as head man at Loyola Marymount. The Lions went 8-23 in his first season and 14-17 last year. They should be better this season, but certainly not in Connecticut's class. The Lions are 1-1 this season with a win against Wagner and a loss to Nevada-Reno. 
Connecticut should have its share of fans at the game. Ollie is from the Los Angeles area and the Lions are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games. 

First off, we're talking about a premier road team in the Sharks. San Jose had the best road mark in the league by far last season. The Sharks have won three of their last four away games beating the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. A big factor why the Sharks are so tough is because they are mentally strong and don't beat themselves.

The Blues aren't play well enough to beat an elite team. They are 4-7 in their last 11 games and just ended a three-game losing streak with a 4-1 win over the depleted Sabres at home two nights ago. The last three St. Louis' victories have come against the Sabres, Colorado and Columbus in overtime. Sorry, but I'm not impressed. 
The Blues have scored two or fewer goals in eight of their last 11 games. Goalie Jake Allen isn't playing well. 
The Sharks' offense has only been middle of the road, but their defense remains first-rate ranking in the top five in the major categories. San Jose is giving up an average of only one goal a game during their last four games. 
This is the first meeting between the two teams since the playoffs when the Sharks eliminated the Blues outscoring them by 12 goals in six games. St. Louis has gotten worse since them. 

When comparing results from last night it looks bad: The Knicks beat the Pistons, 105-102, at home while the Wizards fell on the road to the lowly 76ers, 109-102. 
But those results factor into backing the Wizards today.
Washington is winless on the road. The Wizards are 2-3 at home with victories against the Hawks and Celtics. Their home defeats have come to the Raptors, Rockets and Cavaliers. This is their easiest home opponent of the season so far. 
The Knicks are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. Their last two games were double-digit losses to the Celtics and Raptors. 
Prior to playing last night, the Wizards had been idle for three straight days. They should be less rusty for this matchup not to mention highly motivated after just losing to the worst team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA. 
The Knicks are playing for the third time in four days. They also are the traveling team. Their fatigue rating is higher than the Wizards. 
John Wall is going to play in consecutive games for the first time this season. He saw action for less than 24 minutes last night. There's a chance the Wizards get back their excellent shooting guard, Bradley Beal. That would be an added bonus, but I like the Wizards to win here even if Beal misses a fourth straight game. 
Note, too, the Wizards are 6-1 versus the Knicks in the past seven meetings. 

There were 129 combined points when the teams met last November with Santa Barbara winning as a slight road 'dog. Look for a similar low-scoring game this time around.
The Gauchos struggled to score from the perimeter against Nebraska-Omaha at home in their opener missing 18 of 23 shots from 3-point range in a 74-60 loss. The Gauchos lost their top scorer from a year ago, two-time All-Big West Conference selection Michael Bryson. 
Tempo is important when playing under. Don't expect a fast-paced game here. San Francisco's new coach is Kyle Smith, who takes over a new roster with a new coaching staff. Smith came from Columbia in the Ivy League so he's used to and favors a methodical, half-court style. 

The Warriors have won four in a row against the Raptors and the spot is ripe for them to continue that winning streak.
After a slow start and transition period to newcomer superstar Kevin Durant, the Warriors have picked up the pace. They have won four consecutive games averaging 122.5 points during this span. 
Golden State is well rested and prepared. The Warriors last played Sunday at home and have been in Canada awaiting the Raptors. Toronto had to fly in from Cleveland in the wee hours of the morning following a tough 121-117 physically draining loss to the Cavaliers last night.
Only two teams play at a faster pace than Golden State. The Warriors are hot and certainly have the scorers to take advantage of a tired Raptors squad.  

We know from last year's playoffs that the Penguins can beat the Capitals. Pittsburgh edged Washington again, 3-2 in a shootout, on opening night. That game was in Pittsburgh. I see the Capitals breaking through here at home. 
The Capitals were possibly caught looking ahead losing 2-1 to Columbus last night. Washington played its backup goalie, Philipp Grubauer, in that game and Alex Ovechkin saw barely 14 minutes of ice time. Star goalie Braden Holtby will be back in the nets today and Ovechkin should have plenty of energy. He'll be the most dangerous goal scorer in the game if not the entire league. Ovechkin has scored 27 goals in 45 career games versus Pittsburgh. 
This game is bigger for Washington than Pittsburgh. The Capitals' offense has been underachieving. They have too many good players for that to continue especially on the power play where they've scored just once in their last 19 chances.

The Penguins are going to be rusty having not played since Saturday.  

The Pistons are unbeaten at home. However, they have been far less impressive on the road. Detroit is 1-5 away from The Palace at Auburn Hills. They have lost to the Nets and Suns and have lost by double-digits to the Raptors, Clippers and Spurs. The Knicks fall somewhere in the middle of those teams. The home club has won each of the last four meetings in the series.
Detroit traditionally flounders at Madison Square Garden failing to cover in 20 of its last 26 road games versus the Knicks. 
The Knicks returned home two days ago following a pair of road losses and got back on track by beating Dallas, 93-77. The key for the Knicks was coach Jeff Hornacek's decision to go small. The Knicks have the versatility to do that. 
Andre Drummond is the best rebounder in basketball and the Pistons' top player. He didn't play in Detroit's last game due to an ankle injury. He's a game-time decision here. If he plays, though, he's not likely to be 100 percent. 

The Nets have proven feisty this season usually providing a strong effort. They should be motivated here after getting blown out last night by the Clippers. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss. The Nets did hold out Brook Lopez, their best player, against the Clippers and didn't have any player log more than 29 minutes.
The Lakers aren't as bad as they've been the past couple of years, but they remain inexperienced, don't play good defense and are prone to mistakes. They are at the same lottery level the Nets are. The Lakers have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've been chalk. 

Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. 
Bakersfield catches Arizona a bit fat and happy after the Wildcats knocked off then ninth-ranked Michigan State, 65-63, in Hawaii on a layup with 1.3 seconds left to open its season. The Wildcats didn't have Allonzo Trier, their top scorer from a year ago, in that game and he's not expected to play in this matchup.
The Roadrunners have covered 14 of their last 16 games, including their past seven road games. 

The Blackhawks are a hot team, but they are just 3-2 on the road. All three of their road victories have been by a single goal with two of the wins occurring in overtime.
The Jets have been an early season surprise. They have the two top scorers in the league, Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele. Winnipeg's defense got a boost, too, with Jacob Trouba ending his holdout. He's played well in his first two games back. 
The Jets are likely to regress at some point, but I don't see that happening in this much anticipated home matchup. 

I greatly respect the Sharks' road record, but Carolina is in a prime spot to pull the home upset. The Hurricanes are off their best performance of the season beating the Capitals, 5-1, at home this past Saturday. Goalie Cam Ward is playing better for the Hurricanes with a .932 save percentage this month. 
The Hurricanes have been idle for two days and won't play again until Friday. The Hurricanes should give the Sharks their "A" game. Carolina has defeated San Jose six of the past eight times at home. 
San Jose is playing its fourth straight road game. The Sharks are 3-0 on their current road swing beating three teams better than the Hurricanes. The Sharks have a bigger road game on top Thursday when they play the Blues. I envision a San Jose letdown. 

Dayton is the better team and the Flyers proved it last year burying Alabama, 80-48, early in the season. Not enough has changed to make me think Dayton isn't the superior team again. 
The Flyers have all but one starter back and excellent depth with a 10-man rotation. They looked good in beating Austin Peay, 96-68, in their opener. 
Alabama didn't even make the NCAA Tournament last season. The Tide finished just three games above .500 and was knocked out in the first round of the NIT. Avery Johnson is a nice guy, but his coaching has never impressed me. The early start time should hold down attendance, too, cutting into the Tide's home-court edge.

Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups. 
Louisiana-Monroe opened with a 96-63 victory against Centenary. This is a huge step-up game for the Warhawks, but they have talent with junior college transfer Jordon Harris, Travis Munnings and Nick Coppola, a preseason third-team All-Sun Belt Conference selection. 

This is the third meeting in 14 days between these two teams. The games haven't been close. Tampa Bay has outscored the Islanders, 10-2. The Lightning have defeated the Islanders six times in a row.
The Lightning are striving for consistency. They haven't played as well as they are capable of. However, they are dropping down in competition here. 
New York is well below average with its special teams, its leading scorer John Tavares has just one goal in his last eight games and its goaltenders can't match Ben Bishop. Neither Jaroslav Halak nor Thomas Greiss has played well against Tampa Bay.

Cal-State Northridge's offensive was impressive during exhibition play. The Matadors have a pair of excellent scoring guards. 

UCLA opened with a 119-80 victory against Pacific. The Bruins are going to be one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. They have a strong freshman class topped by Lonzo Ball. The oddsmaker has set this total too low.

At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot.
New England is 4-0 since Tom Brady returned. Brady has the highest QB rating in the league by far at 133.9. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Patriots are averaging 34.2 points per game in Brady's four games winning by 20, 18, 11 and 16 points. 
Seattle lacks the skill position talent and offensive line to keep up with Brady. The Seahawks' grit and guts can't overcome that talent gap especially when they're missing at least one key defensive player. Safety Kam Chancellor may return this week, but star pass rusher Michael Bennett remains out. 
Making things worse for Seattle is the situation. The Patriots were idle last week. New England is 11-2 the past 13 times off a bye, 8-5 ATS. The extra practice time should make Brady even sharper. The Patriots also could get back Deion Lewis for this game, which would upgrade their ground attack and give Brady an upgrade pass-catcher out of the backfield. 
The Seahawks just played on Monday night at home in a tough physical, down-to-the-last-minute victory against Buffalo. Now the Seahawks have to travel 3,000 miles on a short week playing in a time zone with a three-hour difference. 

Ben Roethlisberger has had a game to shake off the rust and is back home. That makes Pittsburgh very dangerous. Roethlisberger has a 51-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Heniz Field since 2014 compared to 19-to-19 on the road during this three-year span. 
Antonio Brown has proven himself to be the best wide receiver in football when Roethlisberger is playing. The pair can dice up a Dallas secondary that is minus Morris Claiborne and Barry Church. 
The Steelers defense has gotten healthy with the return of top linebacker Ryan Shazier and lineman Cameron Heyward. 
The Steelers are in circle-the-wagons mode after three consecutive losses. Dallas is fat and happy with a seven-game win streak and two-game lead in the NFC East Division. 

The Kings are back to struggling to score goals. Only once in their last 25 power play chances have the Kings scored with a man advantage.
LA is banged-up and missing its top goalie. The Kings aren't helped either by this early start time. 
The Jets are extremely motivated after a tough overtime loss in Colorado two days ago. Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele are on fire. Scheiflele is playing as well as anybody in hockey. 

The Titans are a rising team, much better than believed at the start of the season. Green Bay has been one of more disappointing teams in the league.
But this is a chance to buy low on the Packers, who clearly are superior both at the skill positions but in the trenches, too. Green Bay's No. 3 wideout, Davante Adams, is better than the Titans' top wide receiver. 
Second-year QB Marcus Mariota isn't ready yet at this young stage of his career to beat Aaron Rodgers. The Packers offense is potent enough to score a lot of points especially against a Tennessee defense that has been coached up by Dick LeBeau, but still not very good. 
This is a good time to get behind the Packers with their backs to the wall and enduring a lot of deserved criticism for not playing hard during a surprising home loss to the Colts this past Sunday. 

I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. 
Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart. 
By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups. 

Colorado State is a bit under the radar improving each week. The Rams have covered in six of their last seven wins and are one win from being bowl eligible. They are fresh from having a bye two weeks ago and easily rolling past pathetic Fresno State last Saturday. 
Air Force is just 2-3 SU in its last five games, 1-4 ATS. The Falcons just beat rival Army, 31-12, on the road in a highly satisfying victory. This is a flat spot for the Falcons, who haven't faced a balanced offense such as Colorado State's all season. 

Bad weather is expected with the weather forecast calling for an 80 percent of rain and wind up to 20 mph. 
But it's not just bad weather why I strongly like this game to go under this posted total. Washington has a tremendous defense and is facing a freshman quarterback, Sam Danold. The Huskies are allowing only 17 points per game. They rank 11th in scoring defense and 18th in total defense. The Huskies are at their stingiest playing at home allowing just 11 points per game. 
USC has picked up its defense led by a pair of outstanding linebackers. The Trojans are giving up an average of fewer than 20 points per game and 368 yards during their last three games. During this span, the Trojans held Oregon, Cal and Arizona to a combined 39 points under their averages. The Trojans have gone under in their last five games and in 10 of their last 14 road games. 
Tempo-wise neither team plays fast. The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times these two teams have met. 

It's always risk laying a mid-sized price with the Devils. But New Jersey outshot the Sabres, 43-26, last night in winning, 2-1. The Devils achieved that victory in Buffalo with backup goalie Keith Kincaid. Now the traveling Sabres are going to draw Cory Schneider, who could be one of the three best goalies in hockey.
Thanks in large part to Schneider, the Devils have been the third hardest team to score against. Buffalo ranks second-to-last in scoring. 
Buffalo is a gutty team, but the Sabres are young and have been gutted by injuries. Their depth is going to be sorely tested here playing for the third in four days. 

Boston's defense has been dreadful. Brad Stevens realizes that. So he's made adjustments. Rookie Jaylen Brown goes back to the bench. Into the starting line-up goes Kelly Olynik and Marcus Smart, two defensive-minded players. They're joined by Avery Bradley, one of the best defensive guards. A Smart/Bradley backcourt is one of the better defensive tandems in the league. 
The Pacers are going through a transition period under new coach Nate McMillan. The Pacers are running more, but carry a high fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. The Pacers' last two games - both against the lowly 76ers - went into overtime. The Pacers could manage only 105 points against the 76ers last night despite playing overtime. Philadelphia ranks third-from-the-bottom in defensive shooting percentage. 

Saint Joseph's lost 64 percent of its scoring from a year ago, including superstar DeAndre Bembry. Neither team played a fast tempo last season and that's likely to hold true especially for Saint Joseph, which also lost Aaron Brown and Isaiah Miles. 
Toledo lost its point guard from last season and will be working on finding its proper rotation. Toledo's big men aren't polished products yet. Saint Joseph's is a below average 3-point shooting team, but ranked 25th last season in 3-point defense. 

After five straight games of facing tough Big Ten defenses, the Badgers step down in class here. Illinois is surrendering nearly 30 points a game.
Corey Clement was thought to be one of the top running backs coming into the season. He's gotten going after a slow start averaging 121.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards a carry during the last four games. The Badgers have rushed for an average of 204.3 yards per game during this time span. 
This is what Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst was quoted as saying, "I think the line has gotten better. I think the tight ends and fullbacks have done some good things. I think the backs are getting better."
Illinois is down to third-string quarterback Jeff George Jr. The Illini don't have much of an offense, but the Badgers can cover this total by themselves plus I see Illinois putting up some points because they figure to be passing a lot. Wisconsin has several defensive injuries. The Badgers are without their starting nose guard and two starting inside linebackers.

Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. 
The Eagles have held Florida State's offense to an average of 13 points during the past two years. The Seminoles offense could manage just seven points and 217 yards in last year's game winning 14-0 with one of their touchdowns coming on a defensive fumble return. Florida State barely nipped Boston College, 20-17, two seasons ago at home as 16 1/2-point underdogs. 
Boston College's strength is a run defense that ranks eighth in the nation and second in the ACC. Florida State heavily relies on the running of Dalvin Cook. Boston College can contain him. So it's going to be difficult for the Seminoles to cover by a margin of three touchdowns.
Florida State has laid more than six points three times in its last five games, failing to cover each time.  
Boston College upset North Carolina State as a 16-point road 'dog two weeks ago. The Eagles then fell flat and had problems containing Heisman hopeful Jackson and Louisville last week losing by an embarrassing, 52-7. 
Look for Steve Addazio to have his Eagles motivated for this stand-alone Friday nationally televised (ESPN2) game. Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a non-cover. 

Utah gives up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. Orlando is last in scoring. The Magic just surrendered a season-high 123 points at home two nights ago in an embarrassing 16-point loss to Minnesota.
Orlando coach Frank Vogel is a half-court, defensive-minded coach. Obviously he was not pleased with that outcome against the Timberwolves. Look for the Magic to play an intense defensive game here with Bismack Biyombo, a defensive-minded center with no offensive skills, to get more minutes. 

I like the Cardinals to blow out Evansville here. Rick Pitino has installed a new uptempo offense so the Cardinals are going to be playing very fast, which could catch their early-season opponents such as Evansville off guard.

Louisville has talent up and down its roster. The Cardinals have won 38 straight home games in November. Penn transfer Tony Hucks and freshman Ryan McMahon showed their talents in Louisville's 109-71 exhibition win against Kentucky Wesleyan last week. 

There's a perception Louisville's scoring could be down because its three top scorers from a year ago are gone. But Louisville is playing more up-tempo this season. That's going to translate into higher scoring games than the oddsmaker believes - at least at this beginning stage. The Cardinals scored 109 points in an exhibition game. 

Evansville returns seven players, including its senior point guard. 

Golden State is enduring some criticism this season with some of it being that the team is in transition losing their rim protectors and adjusting to the presence of superstar Kevin Durant.
That talk was fueled when the Warriors were blown out by 29 points at home by the Spurs opening night.
Since then, though, the Warriors have gone 6-1. It's business as usual as Golden State leads the league in points per game and also is the top shooting team in the NBA. 
The line is shorter than I'd it would come probably because the Warriors played last night and blew out Dallas by 21 points. I say the Warriors are in rhythm now and hot from beyond the arc. The Nuggets can't match that perimeter shooting. The Nuggets' rotation also is short a player as swingman Will Barton remains out.
The Warriors are 18-9 ATS when playing on zero rest. They don't play again until Sunday when they host Phoenix. So the Warriors stars should play major minutes with no reason to hold anything back for this game. The Warriors also have revenge motivation having lost last season during their previous visit to Denver. 

Jets at Coyotes Over 5 1/2

Winnipeg has the hottest goal scorers in the league, Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele. Laine leads the NHL in goals while Scheifele is the league leader in points. The Coyotes don't have the defense or quality goaltending to prevent the Jets from at least reaching their season average of three goals per game. Winnipeg has scored 18 goals in its last four games.
The Coyotes are playing better. They've notched three or more goals in five of their last seven games. The Jets are a below average defensive team and don't have a strong goalie either. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

The Bulls are playing without rest and in action for the fifth in seven days. As much as Dwayne Wade would like to shine in his return to Miami there's a major fatigue factor he and the team face. Wade is 34 and played 34 minutes in a hard fought Chicago loss to Atlanta last night.  
The Bulls are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times playing on the second of back-to-back games. Chicago has played better at home this season. The Bulls are 1-3 away from United Center. Miami has covered 12 of its last 16 home games and went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Chicago last season. 
This is a home game Heat president Pat Riley doesn't want to lose. So a concentrated effort should be forthcoming from the Heat, who are getting solid years from their two key players Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic. 

The Rockets are playing in their fifth straight road game and just beat Washington last night. The Spurs haven't played in four days. I'd rather have Gregg Popovich than any other coach with extra prep time. The Spurs have used this time to get healthier. 
Houston has played a lightweight schedule. The Rockets lack the defense to keep this game under double-digits. San Antonio has won the last three meetings against the Rockets by an average of close to 16 points per game. 

The Blue Jackets have been overachieving. It's time for them to regress. Their defense is vulnerable and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has been playing above his head.
The Ducks are coming on winning three of their last four. They have Ryan Getzlaf back in the lineup and their scoring has picked up with four or more goals in four of their last six games. It's an added plus if defenseman Hampus Lindholm is able to make his season debut here. 
It's a big revenge spot for the Ducks, who lost 4-0 to the Blue Jackets at home on Oct. 28. 

This is an early-season pivotal game for Memphis. The Grizzlies have lost two in a row at home during their homestand that concludes with this game. Those losses were to the Clippers and Trail Blazers. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Denver. The Grizzlies need this victory because six of their next seven games are on the road, including four straight. 
The Grizzlies finally have their full rotation intact with Tony Allen returning from injury and Chandler Parsons, the team's big free-agent acquisition, set to play in his second game of the season after being out following knee surgery. Parsons played in Memphis' last game, which was two days ago, and was understandably rusty going scoreless in 22 minutes. He should play much better for this matchup. 
The Grizzlies don't play again until Saturday so nothing should be held back. 
Denver is fat and happy after playing its finest game of the season, beating Boston 123-107 on the road this past Sunday. This is the final game of the Nuggets' five-game, nine-day road trip. 

You have to go back to 1997 to find the last time time Detroit beat the Flyers in Philadelphia. 
The Red Wings are on a five-game losing streak right now. They are in a weird scheduling spot here, too. Detroit just played two home games. Now, following this matchup, the Red Wings return home to host Vancouver on Thursday. That's when the Red Wings likely will end their losing streak, not here. 
The Flyers won their 12th straight home contest against Detroit six days ago, 4-3 in overtime. That score obviously was close, but the Flyers did outshoot the Red Wings, 40-25. 
Philadelphia ranks second in shots and is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.5 goals. By contrast, Detroit ranks 16th in scoring at 2.6 goals per game and is 28th in shots taken.
The Red Wings edge is in goal. However, Flyers goalie Steve Mason - who is expected to get the start ahead of Michael Neuvirth - has a strong history against the Red Wings. He's 12-2-2 versus Detroit with four shutouts.  

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

The Ducks have just dominated the Flames in Anaheim beating them a mind-boggling 23 times in a row and 28 of the past 29. The Ducks defeated the Flames at home last season by five, three and two goals.  
Calgary ranks second-to-last in penalty killing and third-from-the-bottom in power play percentage. The Flames average 2.6 goals per game while giving up 3.5. Their best offensive player, Johnny Gaudreau, has a minus 11 ratio and Brian Elliott may be the most disappointing goalie in the league. 
The Flames carry a heavy fatigue ranking, too, playing in their fourth road game in six nights. The Flames' weariness showed in their last game, a 5-0 loss to the Kings. This is Calgary's third game in four nights. 
The Ducks last played on Friday and had an easy 5-1 win against Arizona. The Ducks go on the road for three games following this matchup so they should be focused. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

The buy sign is on for Carolina. The Panthers came out of their bye refreshed and invigorated beating the Cardinals. 
I don't see Cam Newton and Co. slipping up against the Rams. Carolina is coming off an eight-sack game. The Panthers' lone major weakness is their secondary particularly cornerback. But Case Keenum doesn't have the talent or weapons to take advantage.
Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Rams, who barely average 17. Todd Gurley has been the most disappointing running back in the NFL averaging 57 yards per game and failing to break the 100-yard rushing barrier in 14 of his last 15 games. 
The Rams' defense has proven vastly overrated forcing just one turnover in their last three games and having only 10 sacks on the season. The Rams also have been dealing with key defensive injuries. It's a plus for the Panthers if the Rams continue to miss cornerback Trumaine Johnson and defensive lineman Michael Brockers. 
Carolina's ground attack is back on track, too, with Jonathan Stewart returning to  the lineup. 

The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. 
The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles. 
Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark. 
But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.  

In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. 
Norv Turner, the team's highly respected offensive coordinator, quit this week, too. The trade-off for all of this is getting the Vikings at home at a decent price against the Lions, a team that made Case Keenum look like a Pro Bowl quarterback three weeks ago when they were home and failed to keep the Texans and Brock Osweiler from scoring 20 points this past Sunday. 
How underrated is Zimmer? Minnesota has covered 19 of its last 24 games. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS as chalk. They have covered the past six times at home, including all three times this season. Minnesota has won five of those games with the only defeat coming, 10-9, in the playoffs last season when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. 
The Vikings are back home after two straight road defeats. Detroit's one-dimensional offense is going to have problems against the Vikings, who rank No. 1 in scoring defense and in the top four in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. Opponents average less than 15 points against Minnesota. 
I have little doubt the Vikings defense will do their job especially in their new stadium, which rivals any as far as providing Minnesota with a home field advantage. 
The key for the Vikings in covering this number is how much offense can they produce? Pat Schurmur replaces Turner as offensive coordinator. He actually might be a better fit since he has a history and closeness with Sam Bradford. Jerick McKinnon is expected to play after missing the Bears game. That would give the Vikings a back who can get outside plus a receiving threat out of the backfield to go with inside runner Matt Asiata. 
The Lions also have multiple key defensive injuries, the most important being to cornerback Darius Slay. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and may be held out another week since the Lions have a bye following this game. 

First, note the starting time. It's 9 a.m. West Coast time. That's very early for Utah. 
Now look at Utah's numbers. The Jazz are second-to-last in scoring at 93.7 points a game. There's a chance they get their best offensive player, Gordon Hayward, here for the first time this season. If that's the case, Hayward figures to be rusty. 
The Jazz are tough defensively again ranking third in the NBA holding foes to 93.7 points per games and rate seventh in defensive field goal percentage. 
The Knicks have just played the Bulls and Rockets, two of the most up-tempo teams in the NBA. Now they draw the half-court, defensive-minded Jazz. The Knicks failed to break 100 points in three of their five games, not reaching 90 points in two of those contests. It was only against the Bulls and Rockets that they had big scoring games. 
New York is in transition mode with a new coach, new point guard and trying to pick up Phil Jackson's triangle offense with key new players. So the Knicks figure to have problems with Utah's tight defense while the Jazz are weak offensively and not helped by this rare starting time. 

Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. 
Now I certainly respect Alabama. The handicap is based on LSU rather than negativity toward the Crimson Tide although losing defensive back/return Eddie Jackson for the season is a big blow for them. 
I like the way Ed Orgeron has turned around the Tigers. Talent was never the problem for LSU. Coaching was. Now that Les Miles is gone that talent is bubbling to the surface. The Tigers have outgained their past three opponents by an average of 259 yards a game. 
Even suffering with Miles' coaching, the Tigers could be unbeaten. They lost by two to the Badgers playing in Wisconsin and fell by five at Auburn when a last-second game-winning touchdown pass was nullified because the officials ruled time had run out.
Alabama is not going to hold a talent edge here. The situation greatly favors LSU. The Tigers have had two weeks to rest and prepare because of Hurricane Andrew forcing postponement of their game against Florida and having a bye. The Tigers have a top-notch defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator until coming to LSU. As a native of Wisconsin, I can tell you the Badgers hated to lose Aranda. 
Alabama hasn't faced this caliber of defense all season. This is a night game, which makes it even rougher when playing at LSU. The Tigers will be treating this as their national championship game. LSU has arguably the best running back in the country, Leonard Fournette. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. But Fournette rushed for 284 yards on only 16 carries against Mississippi during LSU's last game two weeks ago. He'll be 100 percent here.
Mississippi is the one common opponent these two teams share. LSU defeated the Rebels by 17 points at home outgaining them by 191 yards. Alabama played the Rebels on the road and barely escaped winning, 48-43, aided by an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Jackson. The Crimson Tide were outgained by 35 yards in the contest.   

Considering the circumstances and matchup, it's not too much to ask Milwaukee to beat Sacramento at home. 
The Bucks are playing their best ball after starting slow. They are averaging 121 points in their last two games, victories against the Pelicans on the road and a blowout home win against the Pacers two days ago. 
The Kings are once again in transition with a new coach, Dave Joerger. He's an upgrade on George Karl, but it's going to take time for the Kings to begin to show improvement. They've had limited practice time opening the season playing six games in nine days. This marks their fourth road contest in six days. 
Sacramento doesn't have a strong bench and has one of the weaker starting backcourts with Ty Lawson filling it at point guard for suspended starter Darren Collison and shooting guard Arron Afflalo making just 37.5 percent of his field goals and averaging one assist. 
Each team has a superstar. The Kings have big man DeMarcus Cousins while the Bucks have versatile Giannis Anteokounmpo, who has carried over his tremendous play from late last season and is putting up monster numbers across the board. 
The Bucks rank among the top in points scored in the paint. The Bucks can come at Cousins with a three-headed monster of Miles Plumlee, Greg Monroe and John Henson. Milwaukee's bench is playing well, too. 

Virginia Tech quarterback Jerod Evans is playing his finest ball throwing for 665 yards and four touchdowns during the past two weeks. Duke is minus its top cornerback, DeVon Edwards. 
Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is a dual threat. He can keep up with Evans. He's the first Duke freshman to have three 300-yard passing games. 

This total is set too high especially given Seth Russell's not-for-certain status and TCU's quarterback problems. Starting Horned Frogs quarterback Kenny Hill was so bad last week he was pulled. Hill has been picked off 10 times this season. The Horned Frogs' best running back, Kyle Hicks, is dealing with a sore ankle. 
The combination of these two defenses not being that bad and the potential injury/reduction in effectiveness from key skill position players makes the under an attractive way to go here. 

Stanford's offense is picking up and the Cardinal is going against a weak Oregon State defense that ranks 103rd in scoring defense giving up 32.6 points a game. 

Oregon State showed its capable of moving the ball, especially on the ground, in a 35-31 loss to Washington State. The Beavers rank 44th in the nation in rushing averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. 

Wisconsin always has trouble playing at Northwestern. The Badgers last won there in 1999. The Wildcats also beat the Badgers in Madison last year, winning 13-7.
The key to that Northwestern victory was bottling up Wisconsin's ground game. The Badgers  averaged just 1.9 yards per rush on 17 attempts. If Wisconsin can't run effectively, it can't beat a decent Big Ten team because of bad quarterbacking. The Wildcats are tough against the run again this season ranking 38th. 
Wisconsin thrives on being physical in the trenches. But the Wildcats are big and physical, too, on the defensive line. 
The Wildcats hold a skill position edge with quarterback Clayton Thorson, running back Justin Jackson, the No. 2 rusher in the Big Ten, and Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. 
This is a dangerous spot, too, for Wisconsin. The Badgers have played five straight tough conference games: They upset Michigan State on the road, fell to Michigan, lost to Ohio State in overtime, beat Iowa in a hard-fought 17-9 game and last Saturday defeated Nebraska in overtime giving the Badgers two overtime games in the last three weeks. 

Northwestern has been playing well. The Wildcats had won three in a row and gave Ohio State a tough battle losing 24-20 on the road last week. 

Revenge and Gregg Popovich. That says it all here. I want the Spurs going for me and I'll lay a short road price to get them after Utah dealt San Antonio a 106-91 loss this past Tuesday at San Antonio.
The Spurs haven't played since. They've had three days to stew about that loss and prepare for this short revenge spot. 
The Jazz are playing well.They played a perfect game against the Spurs while San Antonio was flat. I don't see that combination coming up here. The Jazz aren't a strong perimeter team, especially with top scorer Gordon Hayward out. Yet they knocked down 15 3-pointers against San Antonio. 
The line could be higher but Tony Parker won't play for San Antonio. Parker is vastly overrated, though, at this late stage of his career. Parker is in his 16th season and is averaging less than six points a game while hitting only 33 percent of his shot. 
Utah hasn't been good when stepping up in class failing to cover 12 of the last 15 times versus above .500 opponents.

Detroit just isn't good enough anymore to be laying this high of a price. The Red Wings are in the midst of a three-game losing streak after having won six in a row. 
Toronto's Austin Matthews is getting all the early publicity for rookie of the year honors. But Winnipeg rookie Patrik Laine has six goals, too, the same number as Matthews. I think he's just as good. 
Winnipeg has solid offensive talent. The Jets are 4-6-1, but three of the defeats were by one goal to playoff teams. 
The Red Wings are going again with Petr Mrazek in goal. I think that's a mistake as I regard Jimmy Howard as their best goalie. 

Winnipeg doesn't want to win this game and Ottawa doesn't care. That sums up things and should result in a close-to-the-vest low-scoring matchup. The teams met last week and Ottawa won, 23-10, on the road.
The Blue Bombers aren't concerned with revenge because if they win here they risk drawing an early matchup with Calgary in the playoffs. Calgary is 15-2, four games better than the next best team in the CFL. So Winnipeg very well could be tanking.  
Ottawa, though, has no interest in this game either. The victory last week clinched first place in the East Division and a bye through to the East finals for the Redblacks.
Ottawa coach Rick Campbell wants to rest his key players. He's come out and said starting quarterback Henry Burris won't play and second-string QB Trevor Harris will play very little if at all. That means third-string quarterback Brock Jensen and fourth-string quarterback Danny O'Brien will be under center for the Redblacks. Jensen hasn't started a game since he played for North Dakota State in 2013. 
So this matchup is going to resemble an exhibition game with neither coach wanting to risk injury to a key skill position player. 

This isn't the high scoring Thunder team of years past. The Thunder, minus Kevin Durant, are now a grind-out, physical team totally dependent on Russell Westbrook and erratic Victor Oladipo to make plays. They are below average offensively in the frontcourt. The Thunder should play hard against Durant in his first game against his former team. The Thunder know they aren't going to beat the Warriors by playing run-and-gun with them. 
The Warriors have yet to find a consistent offensive rhythm yet as Durant fits into his new teammates. Golden State failed to break 106 points in half of its four games. 
There should be a lot of intensity to this matchup as the Thunder have revenge from last season's playoff loss - blowing a 3-1 series lead - along with the Durant factor. The under has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have played at Golden State.

I can't pass up the Kings as a home 'dog even though they are not playing well and hosting the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins.
Pittsburgh is playing well. However, it's a brutal spot for the Penguins. They just impressively beat the Ducks, 5-1, in Anaheim last night and have a bigger road game on deck in a Stanley Cup finals rematch against San Jose on Saturday.
The Kings haven't scored in three games. The last time that happened was 1969. The Kings also have a goalie problem. However, their roster is talented, they will be highly motivated, home, are the more rested team and draw the Penguins expected to play Marc-Andre Fleury at goalie. Fleury is not the Penguins' best goalie in my opinion. 
Los Angeles has won three of its last four home games. The Kings were 26-12-1-2 at home last season. 

Atlanta has a very good offense. The Falcons are a little improved defensively, but still very bad. The result is a great combination to go over the total. That's what the Falcons have done in seven of their eight games. No other team has a better over mark than Atlanta's 7-1.
The only time the Falcons went under is when they defeated Denver - an outstanding defensive team with a bad quarterback - 23-16. If you discount that matchup, the combined total of the Falcons' other seven games this season is 64.8 points per game. 
Matt Ryan has been an above average quarterback for nine years. This just may be his finest season. Ryan is leading the NFL in touchdown passes with 19 and in passing yards. Julio Jones is now considered by many, including myself, to be the best wide receiver in football. 
The Falcons have other weapons, though. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass to 10 different players. Devonta Freeman is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL. 
Tampa Bay's defense ranks 25th in points allowed at 27 per game. The Buccaneers give up the seventh-most yards per game, too. Opponents have scored 27 or more points on the Buccaneers in four of the past six games.
The timing of this matchup being on Thursday is brutal for the Buccaneers' defense, which was on the field for nearly 45 minutes this past Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raiders. Tampa Bay's starting cornerbacks were on the field for 93 plays. The Bucs surrendered a staggering 626 yards to Oakland, 7.4 yards per snap. The Falcons' offense is better than the Raiders and Atlanta won't commit a record number of penalties either like the Raiders did. The Buccaneers' defense is going to be gassed early with such a short turnaround. 
Atlanta may come close to covering this total by itself. The key is the Buccaneers doing their part by putting up a fair share of points. I see that happening. Yes, the Buccaneers are down their first three running backs and No. 2 wideout Vincent Jackson is out. 
But they still have Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, one of the best wide receivers in the league. The Buccaneers put up 34 points when they beat Atlanta, 31-24, opening week. Winston had a huge game with four touchdown passes while going 23-for-33 for 281 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers had been the Bucs' main runner following injuries to Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Rodgers was putting up solid numbers, but he's not that good. His numbers were there because of high volume. Antone Smith is next man up for the Buccaneers. I've always liked him. He's fast and a dangerous pass catcher out of the backfield. I think he's better than Rodgers. 
The bar isn't set high for Tampa Bay to score a lot. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense yielding 28.9 points per game. The Falcons give up the sixth-most passing yards.
There's a chance of light rain, but little wind. So bad weather shouldn't factor.  

Dallas is getting into dire straits at 0-3. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Mavericks and they catch the Jazz in a letdown spot.
Utah came in with its "A" game and upset the Spurs, 106-91, as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog last night. I doubt the Jazz can put together consecutive games like that in back-to-back days relying on over-the-hill veteran Joe Johnson. He and George Hill logged big minutes in that victory. The Jazz are without leading scorer, small forward Gordon Hayward, and their backcourt depth is down minus Alec Burks. 
Dallas has covered 11 of its last 15 road games going back to last season. This is what Wesley Matthews was quoted as saying about tonight's game: "We can't slip anymore. Whatever the hell it takes, that's what we've got to do." 
The Mavericks should have Dirk Nowitzki back for the first time since their opening game. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings versus the Jazz, including 4-1 ATS in Salt Lake City.

Sorry Cubs fans. Wrong team is favored. The Indians will take this Game 7. Home field, better manager and stronger pitching will prove to be the difference. 
Cubs starter Kyle Hendrick was dominant - at Wrigley Field. His road record is 7-6 with a 2.95 ERA compared to 10-3 with a 1.32 ERA at home. Joe Maddon foolishly burned out Aroldis Chapman by having him throw a combined 62 pitches in Games 5 and 6. It was totally unnecessary to have used Chapman for 1 1/3 innings last night when the Cubs had a huge lead. That's managing scared. I prefer the steady hand of savvy Terry Francona. 
This is what Francona and the Indians have going for them: Corey Kluber to start. Kluber has been magnificent beating the Cubs twice already allowing just one run in each of his two victories. He has 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. Kluber is on short rest. He should be good for five innings.
Then Francona turns to Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, both of whom are well rested and have been unhittable, too, in this series. Miller has been the Indians' ace in the hole the entire playoffs with a 0,53 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 17 postseason innings. Allen hasn't given up a run in 11 2/3 scoreless innings with 22 strikeouts. 

The Kings are 29th in goals scored averaging 2.1. They have been shut out in their last two games. The Kings have a cluster injury problem at goalie and rank among the bottom nine teams in power play and penalty killing. 
The Ducks are coming off a 4-0 loss to Columbus this past Friday. They haven't played since and are more than ready for this rivalry matchup. The Ducks have won eight of the last 11 played on the road against the Kings. They also catch the Kings in a tough spot playing for the third time in four days and having to travel home from two games in the Midwest.
The Ducks get a big boost with the return of Hampus Lindholm, who ended his holdout and is expected to play today. 

Not surprisingly it is talking a while for the Warriors to get in sync with newcomer Kevin Durant on board. Golden State is 0-3 ATS beating the Pelicans by eight and Suns by six each on the road in its last two games. 
If the Warriors play as poorly as they did against those two lottery teams, they'll lose straight-up to the revenge-minded Trail Blazers. 
Portland has nearly everyone back from last year's 44-win total. The Trail Blazers played the Warriors tough in the playoffs last season covering two of the five games during the series and losing another one in overtime although failing to cover. Portland had a 12-point third quarter lead in that game. 
Golden State is nowhere near reaching its peak yet so it's a ripe time to draw the Warriors. Damion Lillard is outplaying Stephen Curry so far while stating his case as a legitimate MVP candidate. The Warriors are making only 26.7 percent of their 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers ranked sixth connecting on 39.1 percent of their 3-pointers. Portland also is averaging two more points per game than Golden State. 

This is the last stop on the Warriors' three game road trip. They host Oklahoma City on Thursday, which is a much bigger game for Durant going against his former team.

The Cubs have regained the momentum and have their confidence up. They also have the superior starting pitching matchup with Jake Arrieta going against Josh Tomlin. 
Arrieta beat the Indians at Progressive Field in Game 2 taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He ended up holding the Indians to one run on two hits with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. The Cubs are 37-16 in Arrieta's road starts. 
The right-handed Tomlin is pitching on three day's rest. His home ERA is 4.31. The Cubs have won 44 of the last 59 times they've faced a righty starter. 
The Cubs also are able to get dangerous Kyle Schwarber into the lineup as the DH something they couldn't do when they played at Wrigley Field. 

New Orleans is 0-3 desperate for a victory. The Pelicans are better than their record. Their last two games were against Golden State and San Antonio. New Orleans has the best big man in basketball, Anthony Davis. The Bucks have no answer for him.

Milwaukee is 1-2 and lucky to have that record. The Bucks lost by 11 points at home to the Hornets, nipped the Nets (who were playing without rest) at home by two at the buzzer and were blown out by 15 points against the Pistons two days ago. Going back to last season, the Bucks have failed to cover in their last nine games.
Andre Drummond dominated the Bucks' weak frontcourt scoring 20 points and pulling down 23 rebounds. That's ominous considering how much damage Davis can do against a perimeter-dominated team such as the Bucks. 
The Bucks are not in sync yet in addition to their below average frontcourt. Their keys are Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jabari Parker and Matthew Dellavedova. Newcomer Tony Snell should be a large part of Milwaukee's rotation, too. Antetokoumpo is Milwaukee's best player by far. He's also the Bucks' main ballhandler and he lacks chemistry at this early stage with Dellavedova and Snell, both of whom weren't with Milwaukee last season. Snell just joined the Bucks a few days ago.  
The Pelicans have covered five of the last six times they have hosted the Bucks. 

Western Michigan has a lot going. The Broncos are unbeaten, ranked in the top-25 and in line to play in a major bowl game.
So it's easy to see why this line is over inflated. Ball State is at home and dangerous. The Cardinals rank 44th in yards per game. They have three good running backs - all healthy and available for the first time in four weeks - headed by James Gilbert. He leads the MAC in rushing touchdowns with 11 and has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last four games. Ball State has scored at least 20 points in every game. 
This is Ball State's biggest game. It's a huge revenge spot. The Cardinals were embarrassed by Western Michigan last year losing 54-7 on the road. They only lost by four points when they last hosted the Broncos two years ago. 
The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS when getting points this season. They haven't lost by more than 10 points all season. The Cardinals are improved on both sides of the ball and are the least penalized team in the MAC. They are a running team that can play ball control to keep Western Michigan's potent offense off the field while not making mistakes. 

I'll lay this short road price with Tampa Bay expecting them to end its three-game losing streak.
I haven't been impressed with the Islanders, who have feasted on inferior competition while the Lightning have lost to tough foes. In their last six games, the Islanders have played three tough teams - Penguins, Canadiens and Sharks - and lost to each one. 
Ben Bishop is off to a slow start, but he's still a far better goalie than the Islanders' tandem of Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak with dissension being shown by Halak now that Greiss has emerged as the main man. 

The Pacers aren't playing well enough to lay this many points against an improved Lakers team that does have some young talent. Monta Ellis and Jeff Teague are a poor defensive backcourt for indiana. 

The Lakers are better coached now with Luke Walton while the Pacers are going through a huge transition and new style approach with their coaching change from half-court Frank Vogel to up-tempo Nate McMillan. The Lakers do well against these types of opponents rather than tough rebounding grinders like the Thunder, who they last played.   

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry.
The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road.
Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better. 
The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed. 
Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday. 

The Thunder are overrated. They are 2-0 but their wins have been against the 76ers by six points and Suns at home in overtime. 
Russell Westbrook is going to get his points. He's also going to do it by taking a ton of shots. The Thunder are a different team without Kevin Durant. They grind out victories and aren't built to cover large margins. 
The Lakers are better coached under Luke Walton and have a young, talent base that is maturing with Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers' improvement was on display when they defeated the Rockets in their opener. 

The Pistons aren't strong enough to lay this many points in a division matchup, especially being forced to use journeymen Ish Smith and Beno Udrih at point guard until Reggie Jackson returns from injury.
The Bucks are due to shoot better. Their bench has been upgraded with swingman Tony Snell, a healthy John Henson and what looks to be big improvement from Rashad Vaughn. Matthew Delladova gives the Bucks a toughness they lacked last season. 
Detroit lost its opener, but then buried the Magic by 26 points at home in its last game. The Pistons are 3-8 ATS following a cover. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

Aside from Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, the Colts hold no edges against Kansas City. The Chiefs should dominate both lines of scrimmage. They have the superior defense and running game. 
Alex Smith isn't fancy. But he gets the job done. He's facing a very weak defense. The Colts give up nearly 29 points a game and 400 yards. They rank 28th in points allowed and yards surrendered. 
The Colts haven't been able to protect Luck very well. He's been sacked an NFL-high 25 times. The Chiefs' overall team efficiency trumps Luck's one-man brilliance. 

Let me get this off my chest right away. I deplore Bill O'Brien's play not-to-lose approach. I understand it, though, because he has a stiff for a quarterback in Brock Osweiler. 
There may be only two worst starting quarterbacks than Osweiler and that's Colin Kaepernick and Case Keenum. Kaepernick at least brings a dangerous run dimension to his game. The Lions haven't faced Kaepernick, but they went against Keenum two games ago at home and made the journeyman look like Joe Montana. Keenum was 27 of 32 for 321 yards with three touchdown passes and one interception against Detroit. 
This is a big game for the Texans following their embarrassing Monday night loss to the Broncos. The Texans are not in the class of the Broncos and Patriots. But because of their defense, they are a step above the Lions. 
The Lions are a dome team traveling for the first time in four weeks. They are going to play in an outdoor grass stadium. They are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 grass games. 
Matthew Stafford is playing well. Marvin Jones is showing he can be a No. 1 wide receiver. But the Lions' defense can't compare to the Texans especially with the key injuries they have. The Lions have been out without their top run stuffer, Haloti Ngata, their best linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and last week their top defensive back,Darius Slay, suffered a hamstring injury. 
I don't trust the Texans to cover a margin. But I do trust them to win this home game. So I'm going to lay extra juice and back the Texans on the money line. 

The Jets couldn't survive a brutal first half schedule that included four road games in seven weeks and matchups against the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Ravens. 
But New York still is a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns rank in the bottom three defensively in points given up, yards allowed and rushing yards. The Browns just allowed 559 yards and 9.2 yards per play to the Bengals, who had averaged 17.2 points during their previous five games. 
The Jets - unlike the Browns - do have some strong areas. They have an excellent defensive line and above average skill position talent with Brandon Marshall and all-purpose running back Matt Forte. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback. Like him or not, he's still better than the now-injured Geno Smith. Fitzpatrick won't look so bad against such a terrible defense. The Browns have surrendered the most touchdowns passes in the NFL with 18. 
Cleveland has limited firepower on offense. Josh McCown is back at quarterback. He's a journeyman like Fitzpatrick except his skill position players aren't as good, his offensive line has key injuries and he's facing a stronger defense. Cleveland fans are loyal. But right now they're involved with the Indians and Cavaliers. So having home field isn't nearly enough to negate the Jets' big-time edges. 

Mike Leach has made Washington State a high-scoring team, one of the top 15 in the nation averaging more than 40 points a game. Luke Falk is an upper tier quarterback and the Cougars have improved their ground attack. Washington State has its highest yard per carry rushing at 3.87 since Leach took over in 2012. 
Oregon State ranks 96th in scoring defense allowing an average of 30.3 points per game. Flak is completing nearly 73 percent of his throws. 

The Beavers do have a decent secondary, but they can't sell out to stop Falk because Washington State's ground attack has come on so much. 
The Beavers rush for 200 yards per game. So they can set up the pass with play-action. 
Last year, the teams combined for 83 points in Washington State's 53-31 victory. That was the Cougars' highest-rated passing game of the season. 

Neither of these teams is strong defensively, nor in the nets. Colorado is going with a back-up goalie here.
The Avalanche have scored four or more goals in half of their games. They play an up-tempo style and should be aggressive here to take advantage of Arizona's youth and bad defense. The Coyotes surrender the most goals and shots in the league.
The Coyotes are a top-10 scoring team, though. 
Colorado has gone above the total in eight of its last 11 games dating back to last season. The over also has cashed the past five times these teams played one another in Arizona. 

Milwaukee is likely looking at being 0-3 if it loses this game. So motivation should be high. The Bucks' starters didn't play well with the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost at home in their opener, 107-96, to Charlotte this past Wednesday. 
The Hornets are off to a fast 2-0 start after beating the Heat on the road Friday night. Now the Bucks step way down in class facing the Nets - a team oddsmakers assigned the lowest over/under win total - at home. After this matchup, the Bucks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on Sunday in a game they will be underdogs in. 
Brooklyn is 2-0 ATS getting a cover in its opener against the overpriced Celtics and upsetting the Pacers at home last night. It's going to be extremely rare to find the Nets in a happy and fat state. This is one of those rare times. 
The Nets are playing in their third game in four days. They have to go back on the road and then come back home to host the Bulls and Dwayne Wade on Monday. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road contests and 0-6 ATS when playing without rest going back to last season. 
The Bucks have dominated the Nets winning 11 of the past 15 meetings, including all three times last season. This is extremely satisfying for Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who played and coached for the Nets and left that franchise on bad terms. Kidd will hold no qualms about trying to bury the Nets at home. 

The Indians are threatening to take a 3-1 World Series lead and win a second straight game at Wrigley Field. I don't see it happening. 
Yes, there's a concern about the Cubs not scoring runs. I can't stand watching Jason Hayward, who has become an automatic out when he plays. But if you take away the Indians' 6-0 opening game World Series victory, Cleveland isn't scoring either. The Indians, discounting that first game, have scored six runs in four games. 
The Cubs are 21-6 following a loss. They have won 36 of their last 51 home contests. 
Indians starter Corey Kluber is going on just three day's rest. Both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen pitched more than an inning last night. 
Cubs starter John Lackey is an experienced post-season pitcher. He pitched his best at Wrigley Field this season going 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA. The Cubs have won Lackey's last five starts and six of his past seven home starts. 

I'll take the home team with the superior defense catching an opponent in a prime letdown spot.

That summarizes this game for me. 
Tulane ranks 34th in total defense. The Green Wave give up five fewer points per game than SMU, which allows 31.3 points a game and ranks 97th in total defense. 
None of Tulane's six opponents this season were able to score more than 24 points during regulation. 
SMU is in its second year of rebuilding under Chad Morris, who inherited a one-win team from June Jones two years ago. The Mustangs are a year or two away from becoming respectable. They had lost three in a row until shocking Houston last week winning straight-up as a 23 1/2-point 'dog. 
That was the Mustangs' biggest victory since the days of the Twin Ponies of Eric Dickerson and Craig James back in 1982. I don't think the Mustangs will be able to handle that unexpected success going on the road right after that win. Tulane has a history of taking care of business against bad teams covering nine of the past 12 times versus sub .500 foes. 

Wake Forest has defeated Army nine straight times. The Demon Deacons were idle last week giving them a needed break and extra prep time to work on stopping Army's one-dimensional option offense. 
You must be able to stop the run to beat Army. Wake Forest can do that giving up less than 120 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 rushing yards per carry. 
The Deacons know that a victory makes them bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. So they should have plenty of motivation. 
Army has fallen back to Earth after opening 3-0, including an upset victory over Temple. The Black Knights are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. They have a much bigger game for them next week when they host rival Air Force for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.
Both teams played Duke this season. Army lost 13-6 to the Blue Devils three weeks ago, while Wake Forest defeated Duke, 24-14, on the road in Week 2. 

This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row.
Before the season began, oddsmakers lined this game as Michigan minus four. Now look at the spread! Sure Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Michigan and Michigan State may be the most disappointing team in the nation along with Notre Dame. 
But the Spartans still have great athletes and Dantonio hasn't all of a sudden become a lousy coach. If there is one time for the rest of this season that Michigan State gets up for a game this will be that time.
The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines seven of nine times under Dantonio, including the past five. Michigan is 0-8 ATS the past eight times these two teams have met.
Michigan State usually is at its best in a 'dog role. Since the middle of the 2011 season, the Spartans are 12-2-1 ATS when catching points. 
Michigan has played only one road game - and that was against pathetic 2-6 Rutgers. The Wolverines play their home games on FieldTurf. This game is on a grass field. The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. 

Detroit has won and covered in its last six games versus the Magic, winning those games by an average of 15.5 points per game. 
But now the Magic have retooled with a new coach and a more physical frontcourt. Will it make a difference? Maybe down the road, but not here. 
This is Orlando's second game. The Magic have seven new players. It's going to take them a while to get in sync. The Magic didn't look good in their opener, a 108-96 home loss to Miami that no longer has Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng. 
The Pistons are off a bad loss, too, opening with a 109-91 road defeat to Toronto. Fiery Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy ripped his team's lack of defense and rebounding in that game. Look for the Pistons to come back strong at home where they covered 63 percent of the time last season. 

After opening 0-2, Chicago has won three of five. The two losses during this span both came in shootouts. 

The Blackhawks are in an excellent spot here and catch a huge break: New Jersey has chosen this game to rest its star goalie, Cory Schneider. Take away Schneider and it's difficult to ever back the Devils. 
The Blackhawks have been idle for the last two days. They won't play again until Sunday. So their full focus should be on this game. It's actually a break for the Blackhawks to be out of Chicago right now as Illinois fans are fully involved with the Cubs. The Blackhawks don't have to be distracted by that. 

The Sharks had a losing record at home last season. This is a flat spot, too, for San Jose. The Sharks just returned from a five-game road trip and knocked off the Ducks in overtime two nights ago during their first game back home. Up next is a home game against Nashville, which is more of a marquee matchup.
Columbus is a below-the-radar, minor market team lacking big name stars. The Blue Jackets, though, can be dangerous. They've already beaten Chicago and Dallas. Columbus can be counted on for a full effort under John Tortorella. The Blue Jackets have been getting outstanding goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, their power play is 5-for-10 and they've killed off 94 percent of their penalties. 
Columbus also has won four of its last five road games. San Jose, on the other hand, is 1-5 following a victory. 

This early in the season it's an advantage to already have played a game. That's the case here where the Celtics dispatched the Nets last night. Chicago is making its season debut. 
The Celtics had a game to get out kinks, get acquainted with Al Horford and establish rotation. Isaiah Thomas was in great form with 25 points and nine assists as the Celtics looked good in building up a 23-point fourth quarter lead against the Nets. But the Celtics had to bring their starters back on the court with two minutes left to hang on a for a 122-117 victory.
I'm not worried about Boston's bench. The Celtics have excellent depth. Rookie Jaylen Brown displayed flashes that he's going to be a contributor, too, scoring nine points on 3-of-4 shooting. 
No team has been better than Boston in covering the spread when playing without rest. The Celtics are 40-17-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games. 
The Bulls have a lot of new faces. Gone are Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. In are Dwayne Wade, Rajon Rondo and Robin Lopez. It's going to take a while for Wade, Rondo and Jimmy Butler to get acclimated to one another. There's only one basketball after all. 
Boston is the better team with the superior coach. They should beat the Bulls here. 

The Wizards are dangerous when motivated and their star backcourt is healthy. Both factors are in play here.
The Randy Wittman era mercifully ended in Washington. New coach Scott Brooks is an upgrade as the Wizards have the talent to not only make the playoffs - which they embarrassingly failed to do last season - but win a playoff series or two. That's because they have a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall is an elite point guard while Beal is a tremendous talent who has had trouble staying healthy. He averaged 17.4 points last season in 55 games and starts this season at 100 percent. 
The Wizards should get improvement from young players Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. I'm expecting a better year, too, from big man Marcin Gortat. 
The Hawks lost Al Horford and gained way past-his-prime Dwight Howard. That's a downgrade. Atlanta also has a major question at point guard entrusting Dennis Schroder to replace departed All-Star Jeff Teague. Schroder is a wild card. He's backed up by unheralded Malcom Delaney. I give the Wizards a huge backcourt check mark in this matchup. 

I understand Anaheim is having trouble scoring goals and may not have Ryan Getzlaf. It's a nice bonus if Getzalf plays, but I like the Ducks even if he doesn't suit up. I'm not buying Nashville as a road favorite here. 
The Predators have played four of their six games at home. They are making the long trek West to face a desperate foe that has had this game circled ever since the Predators eliminated them in seven games in the playoffs last season. 
Nashville last played this past Saturday. They defeated the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins in convincing style despite a number of their players dealing with food poisoning, including goalie Pekka Rinne and captain Mike Fisher. It was a gutty, tremendous win for the Predators. It also came four days ago. That's too long to play between games. I envision the Predators being rusty and less intense for this game than the Ducks.
It also remains to be seen if Rinne and others are completely over their food poisoning. I suffered food poisoning last year and it took me nearly a week before I was 100 percent again. Rinne probably lost weight due to the food poisoning and won't be 100 percent. The Predators recalled a couple of minor league players to make the trip perhaps signalling that all of their players are not completely well.  
Nashville is 0-2 on the road this season. Going back to last season, the Predators have dropped six in a row away from home. The Predators have scored 60 percent of their goals off power plays. Anaheim is a top-seven defensive team that commits few penalties and doesn't figure to get called for a lot of penalties at home. The Ducks are a strong penalty killing unit. I haven't seen the Predators generate much when not having a man advantage. 
The Ducks are 2-4 in their last six games. All of those losses were by one goal with two defeats occurring in overtime. The Sharks nipped the Ducks, 2-1, last night in San Jose. Anaheim is 5-1 the past six times when playing with zero rest. 
This is just the Ducks' second home game of the season. The spot is right for them to get a much needed victory.

Maybe the oddsmaker didn't quite comprehend who Orlando's new coach is when making this opening total. It's Frank Vogel. He's a defensive-minded, half-court style coach who doesn't want his team pushing pace. He won't have to concern himself with that happening in Orlando because the Magic aren't built to run.
Orlando is a  smashmouth team now under Vogel. Miami isn't a high-scoring team either especially with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh no longer on the team. 
Aside from Goran Dragic, neither team figures to do much offensive damage from the perimeter. The Magic are especially challenged offensively in the backcourt where defensive specialist Elfrid Payton is the point guard. 
The Magic are going to try winning by dominating the boards and playing hard-nosed defense. They aren't going to dominate the boards against Hassan Whiteside, the No. 3 rebounder and shot block leader last season. The Heat don't have to even be at their defensive-best to hold Orlando under 100 points. 

Miami has won six of its last seven season-openers, including the past five. That's a nice history going into this matchup, but no longer do the Heat have any of their Big Three as LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all gone. 
Still, look for the Heat to make it six straight season-opening victories. Miami is down. but not as much as perceived. Goran Dragic is good and in line for his best season with Wade gone to the Bulls. Hassan Whiteside is a top-six big man. Justice Winslow holds a lot of promise. The Heat have depth and a system in place. Eric Spoelstra has been the head coach since 2008. 
Orlando holds promise, but is in transition right now. The Magic have a new coach, Frank Vogel, and are breaking in seven new players. The Heat have an identity. The Magic are seeking one.
Vogel is changing the Magic installing a slowdown, smashmouth style. It's going to take time for this system to work. Orlando went 2-5 in preseason. One of those defeats was 107-77 to the Heat in Miami. Whiteside and Winslow - two of Miami's three best players - didn't even play. The Magic aren't going to be able to dominate the boards against Whiteside, who led the league in blocks and was No. 3 in rebounding last season. 
Note, too, that the Magic won't have physical big man Bismack Biyombo for this game. He's serving a one-game suspension for flagrant fouls committed accumulated during last season's playoffs when he played for the Raptors. 

Oddsmakers are high on Utah projecting the Jazz to win 47 1/2 games. Utah was 40-42 last season. Utah could very well be improved, but this isn't the time to jump on the Jazz.
The Jazz are trying to combine youth with a number of imported veterans, including point guard George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. It's going to take time for the mix to get in sync. Things are made far worse for Utah because of injuries. Out until at least mid-November is the Jazz's best offensive player, Gordon Hayward. He has a broken finger. Guard and sixth man Alec Burks is out, too, with a knee injury and big man Derrick Favors is questionable with a knee injury. 
Those three players averaged close to a combined 50 points per game and all were a key part of Quin Snyder's rotation. If the oddsmaker knew now what he didn't know a month ago, Utah's win total would have been lower. This is what Hill was quoted as saying about his team: "It's tough because we don't have a full roster right now. And without a full roster, it's kind of hard to see exactly where we're at. Our focus right now is to get everybody healthy. ..." 
The Trail Blazers are poised to start fast with nearly everyone back from their 44-win team of a year ago, a team that reached the second round of the playoffs by beating the Clippers and then proved competitive against the Warriors. 
Portland holds a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' backcourt was upgraded, too, with swingman Evan Turner joining the team.
The two teams just met in a dress rehearsal this past Wednesday at Salt Lake City. Portland won, 88-84, on the road. The Trail Blazers won despite getting only eight free throw attempts compared to the Jazz making 19 of 23 free throws. 
Portland beat Utah in three of four regular season meetings last season. Lillard didn't play in the game the Trail Blazers lost to the Jazz. Portland is 5-1 SU the past six times hosting Utah, going 2-0 last season winning by an average of nine points. 

The giddy Cubs still may not have come down to Earth by the time this game starts. Even if they do, I like the Indians to win this game. It's a nice bonus to get them as a home underdog. 
As great a postseason pitcher as Jon Lester is, the Indians still hold a pitching edge in this game with Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller. 
Kluber has been dominant in the playoffs. So has Miller, who has pitched 11 2/3 scoreless innings in the playoffs with 21 strikeouts and just five hits allowed. I don't see the Cubs scoring much, likely facing nine innings of Kluber/Miller. 
The Indians have won 68 percent of Kluber's past 60 home starts. They are 20-7 during Kluber's last 27 starts. The Cubs have only seen Kluber once. That was last year in August. Kluber gave up one run in 7 2/3 innings in that game with 11 strikeouts. 
The left-handed Lester, on the other hand, has a 3.72 ERA in eight career starts against the Indians at Progressive Field. The Indians had one of the top marks in the majors versus southpaws going 31-20. 
Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games. They have hold the pitching edge and are home. The Cubs are considering using Kyle Schwarber as their DH. Schwarber has been out since early April because of knee surgery. Talk about rust. 
The Indians should not be underdogs here. 

Both teams have received disappointing play in the nets. Calgary gives up the most goals per game in the league at 4.3. Chicago, dealing with a lot of inexperience on defense, has permitted three or more goals in all six of its games.
I see that pattern continuing here with far more offense than defense.
Flames goalie Brian Elliott is off to a terrible start going 0-3-0 with a 4.72 GAA and a save percentage of less than 84. 
The Blackhawks rank fourth in the league in scoring, but are 24th defensively. 
The over has cashed in five of Calgary's six games, while Chicago is 4-1-1 to the over this season. 

First off, this isn't such a hard total to go over in today's NFL passing world with the rules skewed in the offense's favor. 
Still, the handicap to both team's offenses has to work - and it does.
Let's begin with the Seahawks. They are going against an Arizona defense that is down compared to last season. The Seahawks have a history of piling up points in Glendale averaging 35 points during their last three visits. Russell Wilson has been fantastic against Arizona's defense during these three road games completing 57 of 88 passes for 771 yards with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Cardinals have problems with mobile quarterbacks and no quarterback is more mobile than Wilson. 
Wilson is back healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's offensive line has improved, Jimmy Graham is healthy and contributing and Christine Michael has come through as an effective running back. The Seahawks have a balanced offense and Wilson is an elite quarterback. Seattle is going to get its share of points here. 
Now for the Cardinals. On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Arizona's offense. Seattle ranks first in fewest yards given up and has held foes to less than 16 points per game. However, the Seahawks have gone against only one good offense. That was at home versus the Falcons. The other teams the Seahawks have played were the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets. 
So far Carson Palmer isn't having the great year he had last season. But Palmer still is much better than those first four quarterbacks Seattle drew - Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick. You could make the argument that Keenum, Gabbert and Fitzpatrick were the least effective quarterbacks during the first quarter of the season. Gabbert and Fitzpatrick have since lost their starting jobs. 
Palmer has good receivers. The Cardinals also have a stud running back for the first time in Bruce Arians' four years as coach. David Johnson rates with Ezekial Elliott as the best runner in football. Thanks to Johnson, the Cardinals have rushed for 343 yards in their last two games. 
The Seahawks can't just key on Arizona's passing game. Their first responsibility is likely to focus on Johnson. This task is made more difficult for Seattle because star strong safety Kam Chancellor is expected to miss a second straight game due to a groin injury. He didn't practice all week.