I'm not sure how USC managed to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. But the Trojans are here - and they should be faded in this first-round matchup against Providence. 
The Friars are adept at slowing teams down and have two super players in guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil. Dunn is in the discussion for best player in the country. 
USC is young with two sophomores and a freshman starting with no seniors in the rotation. The Trojans last made the NCAA Tournament five years ago. Their roster lacks tournament experience. The Trojans' style is better suited for the more wide open Pac-12. Providence, though, has the savvy to take advantage of USC's inexperience and force a grind-out, half-court style of game. Dunn is a top defender and the Friars play tough zone defense. I expect the Trojans to react poorly to this forcing up bad shots and getting impatient. 
This the Friars' third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament. Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games. The Friars are road tested having won at Villanova, Butler and Creighton while knocking off Arizona in a neutral site setting. USC, by contrast, lost at Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon and Oregon State. Three of those defeats were by 15 or more points. 

The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. 
Baylor is way too athletic and talented for Yale, which has been able to feast on Ivy League competition while the Bears have gone against some of the best teams in the country. 
There is no chance either of Baylor overlooking the Bulldogs after the Bears were stunned, 57-56, by 14th-seeded Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. 
Yale hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 1962! The Bulldogs also have been distracted by team captain Jack Montague's recent expulsion from the school amid rumors of sexual misconduct. He was the team's fourth leading scorer. 

The Rockets are giving up the most points per game since 1988-89. But their offense is rolling averaging 114.4 points in the last five games while reaching triple digits in eight straight games.

The Clippers are due for a big offensive game after having just faced the top-ranked defensive team in the league, San Antonio, and another top-five defense, the Cavaliers.

This is a high-scoring series. The Rockets average 117.3 points during the past six games against the Clippers. The over has cashed eight of the last 10 times the teams have met. 

The Rockets are playing better. But don't put much stock in their 130-81 burial of the Grizzlies this past Monday in their last game. The Grizzlies are just a shell of themselves with multiple key injuries. The Rockets' history is to fall back once they start looking good. 
This has become a bitter rivalry series after the Rockets eliminated the Clippers in an epic playoff series last season coming from 3-1 down to pull it off. 
The Clippers are 1-3 and were blown out in their last two games. But those three losses were against the Thunder on the road and the blowout defeats came to the Cavaliers and Spurs in San Antonio where they are undefeated. The Clippers don't play again until Saturday when they face the crippled Grizzlies. I expect an all-out effort from the Clippers, who certainly have the talent to beat Houston straight-up.

There's enough of a class difference here where I feel comfortable laying this number. Virginia Tech is one of those schools happy to play in the NIT. It's the Hokies' first postseason tournament appearance in five years.
Virginia Tech plays in a top-three conference and was competitive in the ACC. The Hokies are 6-1 in their last seven games, including victories against Miami and Pittsburgh during this span. They have covered in 10 of their last 11 home games. 
Princeton failed to win the Ivy League. The Tigers also are rusty having last played eight days ago when they barely beat Penn, a middle-of-the-road Ivy League team. The Tigers won 72-71 as 15-point favorites. 

First make note this matchup is in the College Basketball Invitational not the NIT. That's important because the CBI doesn't have any teams from the Power Five conferences, or the Big East, this season. Take away those conferences and it leaves the Atlantic 10 as the highest-rated conference according to RPI numbers. 
Duquesne is part of the Atlantic 10, which is a much superior conference compared to the Summit League where Nebraska-Omaha resides. Factor in home court advantage with Nebraska-Omaha making a rare East Coast trip and this number is worth laying. Another thing, too, about the CBI is the teams have to pay if they want in. Duquesne, unlike some other schools, really wanted in this tournament. The school is reducing ticket prices to ensure a sell-out. 
The Dukes struggled down the stretch playing in a much tougher league than the Mavericks. Still, just two games ago, the Dukes knocked off NCAA qualifier St. Joe's on the road. Duquesne also lost a number of close games - four of their last eight defeats were by four or fewer points, or in overtime. The Dukes have a good bounce back record covering 11 of the past 15 times following a loss. 
Nebraska-Omaha hasn't played since March 6 when it lost to Denver in the Summit League tournament. Before that game, the Mavericks also had gone 10 days before playing. That rust was evident against Denver when the Mavericks fell behind by 19 points at halftime. So this is just their third game in three weeks. Nebraska-Omaha has failed to cover during its last four road contests.

Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. 
San Diego State is not rested and is not excited about hosting this NIT matchup. It's a huge letdown for the Aztecs to play in the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. This is a short turnaround for San Diego State having played for the third time in three days this past Saturday. The Aztecs have had a sellout during their last 72 home games. That streak is going to end here as Viejas Arena only is expected to be half full. I don't see the Aztecs being mentally and physically ready to cover this big of a number. 
San Diego State has the No. 4 defense in the country. However, the Aztecs average only 68 points per game and their Mountain West Conference had a down season this year. San Diego State also has concerns about the health of its backcourt. 
IPFW has an RPI rating of 72, which is comparable to the rating Fresno State had prior to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs upset the Aztecs, 68-63, to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. 
The Mastodons have the best player in the Summit league in guard Max Landis. They are well rested since the Summit League's tournament was played the previous week giving the Mastodons an eight-day break to recharge their batteries. 
IPFW can score averaging 80.2 points a game, 26th-best in the nation. The Mastodons rank fourth in the country in 3-pointers made and are eighth in shooting percentage. The Mastodons also are road tested having played 20 times away from Fort Wayne while going 12-4 (75%) ATS in their lined road contests. 

To many the CollegeInsider.com Tournament is no big deal. But that's not the case with Tennessee State. The Tigers had the largest turnaround in the country going from 5-26 to 20-10 this season. Their reward is hosting a first round game in this tournament against Ball State.
It's the first time Tennessee State is hosting a Division I postseason game in its history. This is huge for Tennessee State and its fans are excited. 
Ball State also had a nice turnaround going from 7-23 to 19-13 this season. However, the Cardinals lost and failed to cover in their last three games. They are a much better home team going 5-7 on the road. 
Tennessee State is strong at home going 11-2. The Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS following a loss and have covered 70 percent of the time during their last 18 games. 
Tennessee State beat Eastern Kentucky by a point on the road last month. Ball State lost to Eastern Kentucky on the road by eight points earlier in the season. 

Akron will be sky high for this in-state rivalry matchup. Ohio State has far less enthusiasm. The Buckeyes had their course set for the NCAA Tournament. This is a big disappointment for them and their crowd count will be way down. 

The Zips set a school record for 3-pointers made. They have outstanding long range shooters and a good center in 6-foot-10 Isaiah Johnson. 
The Zips have a proud basketball tradition and can hang with the disinterested Buckeyes. The Zips also are a much better free throw shooting team than Ohio State, which is a key when it comes to the end game. 

Short-handed New Orleans is way overmatched to begin with and the situation makes it worse.
New Orleans is 1-7 in its last eight games. This marks the depth-shy Pelicans' third road game in four days and fourth in six days. They have lost five players for the season, including two of their top four players in Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans also could be missing point guard Norris Cole for a fourth straight game. He's dealing with a back problem. 
The Pelicans are 7-26 on the road with five straight road losses. They stand a far better chance of winning away from home in their next game when they meet Sacramento on Wednesday. 
Golden State ranks No. 1 in points per game and 3-point shooting. No guard tandem comes close to making as many 3-pointers as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 
The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. They can't stop the Warriors. They can only hope to stay within shouting distance. That's likely going to mean a strong game from their streak-shooting top 3-point man, Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson is in a cold spell missing 23 of 28 shots from beyond the arc during the last five games. 

The Warriors own the best start in NBA history at 59-6. They are 30-0 at home. They have beaten the Pelicans eight times in a row at home. You always worry about a team being overconfident and flat when laying this many points. But I see the Warriors maintaining their intensity. 
Golden State received a wake-up call from the Suns during its last game, a 123-116 home win two days ago. The Warriors trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter in that game. The Warriors do not play again until Wednesday when it hosts the Knicks. So there is no look-ahead negative factor. The Warriors have dominated Western Conference foes, too, ATS-wise going 21-10-1 (68 percent) the past 32 times. 
 

The over has cashed in 11 of the Mavericks' last 14 games. The Mavericks have an old roster and their wearing down on the defensive end surrendering triple-digits during each of their last 14 games.

Charlotte has reached triple digits in its last seven games averaging a staggering 118 points during this span. Kemba Walker is having a monster season for the Hornets. The over has cashed in six of Charlotte's last seven games. 

It's easy to think star power with the Cavaliers and Clippers with names such as LeBron James, Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving. But these two teams actually are underrated defensively. Cleveland ranks fourth in fewest points allowed while only seven teams give up fewer points per game than the Clippers. 
Now throw in an early start time to accommodate national television, and the possibility of sluggish play on offense is increased. Because of daylight savings time kicking in, this game will begin at 11:30 a.m. local time. That's rough on the body clock. 
Kevin Love is due back for Cleveland after sitting out the last game with sore knees. That's not necessarily a plus for the over, though, as Love is 11-for-42 (26 percent) shooting from the floor in his last four games. 
The Clippers have held an under bias when playing Eastern Conference foes going 9-3 under the past 12 times. The under also has cashed in seven of the Clippers' last eight home games.   

OK here are the facts regarding San Antonio at home. The Spurs have won 40 in a row at AT&T Center, including 31 games this season. San Antonio has covered 67 percent of its last 43 home contests.

The Spurs are not a team I usually care to buck - especially at home. So it takes a special point spread - like this one - to get me involved in fading San Antonio.
No, Oklahoma City isn't in San Antonio and Golden State's class. But the Thunder are at that very next level. Their cast of stars can match any team. There may not be a better talent tandem than Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. 
Only three times in their last 31 games have the Thunder lost by more than eight points.They beat the Spurs by six points at home in their lone meeting against them this season.  
The Thunder and Spurs are just two of six teams that have won 65 percent or more of their games. The Spurs are 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS when playing those elite teams. Their lone cover came by one-half point. The Spurs have proved they can crush inferior opponents. They have to prove they can cover a big number like this against a blue chip foe. 

Nearly decimated New Orleans gave it all it had before losing in overtime to Memphis last night. The Pelicans have lost five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. All but one of New Orleans' starters played at least 41 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 47 minutes. Top reserve Ryan Anderson went nearly 37 minutes. Point guard Norris Cole didn't play and is questionable for this matchup. 
This is the Pelicans' fourth game in six days. The Bucks have been idle since Wednesday and have a strong revenge motivation after the Pelicans embarrassed them, 116-99, at New Orleans on Jan. 23. The Pelicans shot an incredible 17 of 31 from 3-point range in that win. 
New Orleans is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention. The Pelicans are 7-25 on the road, including losing 23 of their past 30 away contests. The Bucks are seven games above .500 at home. 

Seton Hall is coming on and can win this game straight-up sparked by its star sophomore guards Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington. The Pirates are young but have steadily grown and are now peaking at the perfect time. 

Yes, Villanova is hot winning 12 of its last 13. But the Pirates are 11-2 in their last 13 games. The Pirates have the necessary confidence to upset Villanova being the only Big East team to defeat the Wildcats each of the past two seasons. They also have defeated Xavier twice during the past two weeks building up leads of 15 and 19 points. 
The Pirates have covered 13 of their last 16 Big East games. 

Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. 
Colorado State isn't as deep as Fresno State and is playing for the third time in three days. The Rams played in the late game last night exerting a lot of energy in upsetting Boise State, 88-81, as a seven-point underdog. 
The Bulldogs have the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Marvelle Harris and beat Colorado State during their lone meeting this season, 87-73, at home on nine days ago. 

The Wizards have been a strong over team on the road. They've gone above the total in 15 of their last 22 away contests. The Wizards also have gone over the total in 20 of their last 26 games when having two days rest.

Utah should be able to exploit a Wizards' defense that has surrendered 99 or more points in each of their last six games. 

There is a lot of star power missing here. Chris Bosh is out and Dwayne Wade is questionable for Miami. On the Chicago side, Jimmy Butler is out and Derrick Rose could sit out, too. 
The Heat are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA holding foes to 97.2 points a game. Miami is coming off a high-scoring 114-108 road loss to the Bucks. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Miami has lost in its previous game.
The Bulls are going to be highly motivated to play tough defense after being embarrassed 129-111 at Miami 10 days ago. The Heat set a franchise record by making 67.5 percent of their field goals, the highest percentage the Bulls have allowed since 1983-84. Before that game, the two teams had gone under in their previous six meetings. 

The Boilermakers have the size, situation and revenge motive to steamroll the Illini.

Illinois doesn't have great depth and is coming off a huge upset victory against Iowa yesterday winning as a 10 1/2-point underdog. Illinois is 3-8-1 ATS following a point spread cover.
There is no chance Purdue takings Illinois lightly especially after losing 84-70 on the road to the Illini in probably the Boilermakers' worst game of the season.
Note that this Big Ten Tournament game is being played in Indianapolis, which is in Purdue's favor. All but one of Purdue's starters comes from Indiana. 

I'm not buying the Nuggets as this big of a favorite when they don't have their best player, injured Danilo Gallinari. You have to go back to Dec. 11-15 to find the last time Denver won three in a row. 
The line has climbed because the Suns are bad, too, and coming off a 128-97 home loss to the Knicks last night. In their two previous games, though, the Suns beat the Magic and Grizzlies. Both of those victories were achieved on the road at higher point spreads than this. The Suns have professional pride and should come out strong after being humiliated last night. They have covered the past seven times following a double-digit home loss. 
Devin Booker and Alex Len are playing well for the Suns yet remain well under the radar. It's a plus if Brandon Knight is able to play today for Phoenix. He's missed the last 21 games with a groin injury, but has been cleared to play now. 
The Suns play Denver with a great deal of confidence having won and covered eight of the last 10 meetings, including going 4-1 the past five times in Denver. 

I liked Fresno State to roll over UNLV before Wednesday's first-round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament - and I like the Bulldogs even more now.
UNLV had to go three overtimes to dispatch Air Force on Wednesday, winning 108-102. The Rebels have a short bench and are going to carry a high fatigue rating. Center Ike Nwamu and guard Patrick McCaw played the entire 55 minutes. Guard Jerome Seagears logged 54 minutes despite battling a hand and heal injury. 
The Rebels are 1-5 ATS following a victory and catch a rested and hot Fresno State squad. The Bulldogs enter the tournament with plenty of momentum having won eight of nine, including their last six. Their only loss during this span was at Nevada-Reno. 
The Bulldogs feature three quality senior guards headed by Mountain West Player of the Year Marvelle Harris. He and Oakland guard Key Felder are the only players in the country to rank No. 1 in their respective conferences in points, assists, steals, minutes per game and assists to turnovers. 
The line is short because the game is being played at Thomas & Mack Center, home of the Rebels. But this isn't going to matter. The Bulldogs have beaten regular-season conference champion San Diego State and posted upset victories in their last three road games - beating Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah State. 
The Bulldogs also have covered in six of their last eight games against UNLV and are 2-0 versus the Rebels this season. 

Western Kentucky has covered five of its last six meetings versus Alabama-Birmingham. The past four get togethers have all been decided by seven points or less. This includes the Hilltoppers losing by four points on the road to the Blazers two weeks ago. This game is in Birmingham but not on the Blazers' home floor. 
While UAB has punched its NCAA Tournament ticket, Western Kentucky is in must-win mode knowing it has to win the Conference USA Tournament to earn an NCAA Tourney berth. The Hilltoppers are playing their best ball winning 5 of their last 6 games while going 6-0 ATS.  
I don't see the Blazers being as desperate, motivated and focused as Western Kentucky. 

Phoenix is 3-2 in its last five games and coming off an impressive 109-100 road win against the Grizzlies this past Sunday. But don't for an instant think the Suns are any good. They aren't. Neither are the Knicks. This is bad on bad and the point spread has become out of whack here.
The Knicks opened three-point favorites. Now that's been reversed. This is a clear over adjustment. The Suns not only have failed to cover the last four times they were home favorites, but lost straight-up each time. They also were 0-10 ATS following a victory until upsetting Memphis. 
Carmelo Anthony will be the best player on the court and he's been hot - averaging 26.4 points in his last five games. Star Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis should be less rusty, too, after shooting just 3-for-11 from the field in last night's road loss to the Nuggets. He had missed the game before that with a bruised leg. 
The Knicks were bad in that loss. But in their two prior games, they beat the Pistons by 13 at home and lost to the hot Celtics by one point on the road. New York was 3-0 ATS in its last three away contests before laying an egg against the Nuggets.  

Neither Pittsburgh nor Syracuse is playing its best ball right now going into this second-round matchup of the ACC Tournament. But the Panthers match up well to Syracuse. This is proven in Pittsburgh winning the past four times, including going 2-0 this season versus the Orange with both victories coming by double-digits. The Panthers are 14-6 against the Orange since Jamie Dixon became Pittsburgh's coach. 
Jamel Artis is a key reason why the Panthers match up well to the Orange. He provides the Panthers that needed perimeter shooter to beat Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. Artis is averaging 18.8 points, nine rebounds and six assists during the last four games against the Orange. 
The Panthers have dropped two in a row. Artis has been cold in those games. However, Syracuse is 1-4 in its last five games. Both teams have posted some good wins, but I like Pittsburgh's chances more than Syracuse's of getting untracked in this game. The Panthers are 10-2 ATS following a loss. 
Syracuse has had some bad losses and lacked consistency during conference play. The Orange have failed to cover five of the past seven times when facing opponents with a winning record. They also don't play Pittsburgh with much confidence.  

Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left.
So Penn has strong revenge motivation for this final game of the season. Keep in mind there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League. That's a bad break for the Tigers, whose hopes of winning the conference were dashed when Yale clinched the title with a victory this past Saturday. 
Princeton is way overpriced in this matchup. Not only has Penn covered 13 of the last 16 in this series, including four of the past five, but the Tigers are 1-4 in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS at home versus foes with losing road records. The Tigers also are 0-4 ATS the past four times following a victory. 

The Nets are playing up-tempo and at a faster pace since getting rid of Joe Johnson. The over has cashed in 14 of the Nets' last 20 games. The Nets, though, rank last in defensive field goal percentage and just allowed the Timberwolves to shoot a team-record 68.4 percent from the floor in a 132-118 loss this past Saturday. 

Toronto is averaging 108.2 points during its last five home games. The Raptors have reached triple digits in 12 of their last 14 games. They should have no problem getting their share of points versus the Nets. 

I want the Warriors off their most shocking and worst-played game of the season, a 112-95 road loss to the Lakers Sunday afternoon. The Warriors haven't shot as bad from 3-point range as they did against the Lakers - 4-for-30 - since December of 2013. 
I have to believe the Warriors are going to be in a super kill mood returning home where a victory tonight would break the Bulls' NBA record for consecutive home wins. The Warriors scheduled a shootaround today even though they played yesterday. It's the first time they have had a shootaround the day of a game when playing without rest and it demonstrates how serious they are taking this matchup. 
Golden State is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing on the second of consecutive days and also 15-5 ATS the past 20 times after not covering the spread during their last game. 
Orlando couldn't give the Warriors a battle when it was in a much better spot playing at home on Feb. 25. The Magic lost 130-114 as eight-point underdogs. Stephen Curry scored 51 points in that contest, but the rest of the Warriors didn't play that well. It was a flat game for Golden State and they still beat the Magic by 16 points on the road. 
Now the Magic not only face what should be an aroused and embarrassed Warriors squad, but also are off a highly-deflating, 102-84 home loss to the lowly Suns this past Friday. That dropped the Magic's record to 8-21 in their last 29 games and put a stop to any realistic talk about them making the playoffs. This is what Magic coach Scott Skiles was quoted as saying following that defeat. "We should probably stop talking about (the playoff chase) right now because this was a game we had to have." 
Orlando is 4-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 

The Grizzlies are being undervalued in this spot. It's understandable. They just lost to the Suns, 109-100, on Sunday while the Cavaliers are coming off a hugely-satisfying 17-point home victory against the Celtics this past Saturday in a big revenge spot. 
The oddsmaker also isn't giving the Grizzlies respect because Memphis is down Marc Gasol, its best player. But the Grizzlies are a playoff, prideful, savvy, veteran team that gives up the seventh-fewest points in the NBA. The Grizzlies have been holding their own, too, minus Gasol winning seven of their last 10. The Suns are the only team to score more than 100 points during the Grizzlies' past six games. 
This is an under-the-radar spot, too. Memphis is 8-1 ATS off a loss and also 8-1 in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS, too, the past 13 times when playing without rest. There's a strong possibility they could get back Tony Allen, their second-best defender. 
The Cavaliers are in action for the third time in four days. They may not have their full focus either knowing the Grizzlies just lost to the Suns. Cleveland embarks on a four-game West Coast trip beginning Wednesday so that's a potential distraction. 

Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. 
The Badgers are playing their best ball after a slow start. They need this game to lock up their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and earn a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin has covered 10 of the past 11 times following a victory.
Purdue is 22-1 SU in its last 23 home games. But the Boilermakers haven't been that sharp failing to cover in five of their last eight games in West Lafayette, including their past three home contests. Purdue caught Wisconsin early in the season before the Badgers caught fire beating them by six points. The last time the Boilermakers swept the Badgers was 2008-09. 
This has been a road series with the visitor covering six of the past seven times. It also has been a close series with three of the past four games decided by six points or fewer. Note, too, that Purdue is 1-6-1 ATS when playing a foe with a winning percentage above .600. 

Detroit played last night, but it's Portland that carries a high fatigue rating in this matchup. The Pistons were idle for two days before losing to the Knicks, 102-89, on Saturday. Now they return home where they have covered 64 percent of their games at The Palace of Auburn Hills. 
Prior to losing to the Knicks, the Pistons had held their previous five opponents to an average of 93.6 points a game. Detroit is a top 10 defensive club and thanks to Andre Drummond one of the best rebounding teams in the league. 
Portland ranks 16th defensively and is at the end of a its six-game road trip. This marks the Trail Blazers' fourth away matchup in six days. Portland stayed hot opening with three victories on their trip, but now have lost two in a row falling to Boston and Toronto. You would have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Trail Blazers finished a trip of at least six games with a winning record. 
This is statement time for the Pistons if they are serious about making the playoffs. The key for the Pistons is finding their offense. They were held to 81 points on the road against the Spurs this past Wednesday and only managed 89 versus the Knicks last night. Keep in mind, though, the Spurs are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. The Pistons just suffered an off-game against the Knicks as Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who had been playing well since coming to Detroit, were a combined 8-for-37 from the floor versus New York. 
I envision Stan Van Gundy having the Pistons fired up for this Sunday home game and their offense should step up versus a mediocre opposing defense and tired opponent. 

Dallas can't afford to slip up here in its quest for a playoff quest. The Nuggets weren't good to begin with and they are not nearly as good now minus their top player Danilo Gallinari. He was the one player they couldn't afford to lose. The Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. 

The Mavericks have been getting a lift from a healthy Chandler Parsons and newcomer David Lee to go along with their other steady veterans. This is a game the well-coached, savvy Mavericks don't figure to lose. 

Rarely do I care to lay points with the Timberwolves. This is one of those times. 
Minnesota is off a road performance so bad that Timberwolves coach Sam Mitchell yanked his three best players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio - early in the third quarter and never put them back in the game during a 116-101 loss to Milwaukee Friday night. The Timberwolves committed a season-high 26 turnovers and once again didn't play defense. 
I don't suddenly expect the Timberwolves to curb their season-long defensive and turnover woes, but I do expect them to come out very hard here and take advantage of an even worse Nets squad that is in a letdown spot. 
The Nets nipped Denver in overtime, 121-120 on a tip-in with 0.4 seconds left by Brook Lopez, last night in the high altitude of the Rockies. Brooklyn, which ranks second-to-last in scoring, made 50.5 percent of its shots from the field while hitting 13 of 22 3-pointers. Now the Nets make their seventh straight road appearance. They are 7-22 on the road this season.  
Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. They also are 2-9 ATS the past 11 times playing in Minnesota. The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets nine of the last 13 times and have played well lately at Target Center covering seven of their past 10 there. During this span, the Timberwolves have defeated the hot Celtics, Raptors, Bulls and Grizzlies. They nearly upset the Thunder, too, falling by three points in a game that had 19 lead changes. 

A month ago Avery Bradley hit a buzzer beater as the Celtics upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 104-103. The Cavaliers haven't forgotten. Not only is this a huge revenge spot for them, but it's a great situation, too. 
Both teams played Friday night. The Cavaliers waltzed past the Wizards, 108-83, at home. Kyrie Irving was the only Cleveland player to log more than 31 minutes. Kevin Love received the night off. He'll be fresh. 
Boston, on the other hand, had to rally from eight points down in the final four minutes to nip the lowly Knicks, 105-104, at home last night. The Celtics had to exert a lot of energy to pull out that victory. Now the Celtics immediately fly out to Cleveland for their first road game since Feb. 22. Boston has been outstanding at home, but are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games losing to the Timberwolves, Jazz and Bucks. The Cavaliers were idle for three days before rolling past the Wizards. They are far more rested than Boston.
The Celtics rely on fast breaks and the scoring of Isaiah Thomas. However, the Cavaliers rank fifth in defending opponents fast breaks and Thomas is shooting under 32 percent from the field against the Cavaliers in nine games against them since he joined Boston. 
This is statement time for the Cavaliers being the dominant team in the Eastern Conference. They want to prove that to the upstart Celtics and the spot lays out well for them to achieve that. 

My first look when it comes to the Pac-12 is to any home underdogs as the host school sports an 83 percent winning average. USC fits the bill on today's card.
Not only do the Trojans need this game being a bubble team, but they are 16-1 at home this season and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home contests. 
Oregon is a bit fat and happy after clinching the No. 1 seed for next week's Pac-12 Tournament and earning at least a share of the Pac-12 title for the first time in 14 years. 
Bottom line is the Pac-12 is a very even conference with a lot of good but not great teams. It's a bonus to get the Trojans as home underdogs. 

Down big men Marc Gasol and Brendan Wright, the Grizzlies have altered their style. They are more up-tempo and giving extra minutes to wing players P.J. Hariston and Lance Stephenon. Gasol and swingman Tony Allen, who is likely to miss a seventh straight game due to a sore knee, are Memphis' top defenders. The Grizzlies are weaker defensively without those two. 
Gasol was injured eight games ago. The Grizzlies have adjusted by playing much faster. They are averaging 110.6 points during their last five games. Utah isn't as strong defensively on the road and its defense has been down lately surrendering triple digits in five of eight games since the All-Star break. 
The over has cashed in eight of Utah's last nine road matchups versus a foe with a winning home mark. 

The Jazz are averaging only 95 points during their last three games. But all three of those matchups were against Eastern Conference foes. If you discount their last Western Conference game against San Antonio, the league-leader in defense, the Jazz have averaged 105.7 points in their last four contests versus Western Conference foes. 

Midnight is about to strike for Austin Peay, which has pulled off two upsets in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. This is the Governor's third game in three days. They came from 19 points down to edge Tennessee State last night. That game took a lot of energy out of Austin Peay, which did some heavy celebrating following the victory. Even with that win, the Governors are still 5-17 ATS following a straight-up victory. They are not a good team. 
Belmont is well rested. This is its first tournament game after drawing a double bye. Belmont is well coached. The Bruins rolled past Austin Peay during the regular season, 76-58, at home. This is in Nashville, a neutral site. But the Bruins won't be letting up knowing what the Governors did to Tennessee State. 

It's not so much the Suns that the Heats are dealing with today. It's a battle against human nature. After just facing the Warriors, Celtics, Knicks and Bulls - the last two of whom they beat - the Heat now draw the Suns at home. That's followed by consecutive games against the 76ers. Can you say letdown? 
It's hard to blame the Heat either if they take it easy. They just buried the Bulls, 129-111, on Tuesday shooting a franchise record 68 percent from the floor. It's a long season in the NBA. Rest stops are rare and welcomed. The Heat have had a tendency, too, to play to the level of their competition. They've already lost at home to the Timberwolves, Nets and Knicks. 
The Suns are bigger and a better rebounding team now that they're playing Tyson Chandler and Alex Len together. The Suns are bad, but they are absolutely dreadful when Chandler is out. He's back providing an inside toughness. Phoenix is a semi-respectable 5-6 ATS since February when Chandler has been in the lineup. Len is the under-the-radar averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds during his last five games. 
Phoenix just upset Memphis two games ago. The Suns then were embarrassed by the Hornets in their last game. Earl Watson doesn't have much talent that's for sure, but he's usually able to get Phoenix to play hard something that couldn't be counted on when Jeff Horancek was coaching

Miami has been playing at a faster tempo since losing Chris Bosh. But that could start to change now that veteran Joe Johnson has become a primary addition. 
The Heat still rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up fewer than 97 points per game. The Suns really struggle on the road where they've averaged a measly 86.2 points during their past five away contests. 
The Suns are stronger inside and more deliberate offensively with big men Tyson Chandler and Alex Len now in the lineup together. The Suns, with their weak backcourt, know they can't beat opponents playing fast-tempo. The under has cashed seven of the past nine times the Suns have faced opponents with a winning record.
If the score does get lopsided, the Heat are likely to play their reserves extra minutes. Miami has some older veteran with wear and tear and play again on Friday. So it would be prudent to cut back on their starter's minutes if the game is well in hand. 

Tennessee State is much superior to Austin Peay and has a schedule advantage in this quarterfinal Ohio Valley Conference Tournament game being played in Nashville. 
Austin Peay upset Tennessee Tech on Wednesday as a four-point 'dog, 92-72. Chris Horton had a monster performance with 37 points and 21 rebounds. But Tennessee Tech really beat themselves shooting 38.7 percent from the floor and 17 percent from 3-point range after leading the Ohio Valley in offensive efficiency during the regular season. 
Austin Peay ranked seventh in the conference in defensive efficiency. The Ohio Valley is not exactly known for being a good defensive conference either. Tennessee State defeated the Governors by 14 points during the regular season and catches Austin Peay without rest savoring an upset victory. The Tigers are a 20-win team and won't let Horton beat them. 
The Governors are 8-20 ATS following a straight-up win and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games. The Tigers, by contrast, are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games. 

No. Denver, at 14 games below .500, can't lay this many points especially minus its best player and maybe missing its second-best player, too.
The Lakers just beat the Nets last night at home to end an eight-game losing streak. But they were idle for three days before that game so fatigue shouldn't be a factor. The Lakers have young legs, too, so Denver's high altitude shouldn't be a big minus for them. 
Kobe Bryant is likely to play after missing last night's game. I wish he weren't. The Lakers are better off with emerging rookie D'Angelo Russell controlling the ball. Russell is off his best game of the season. 
The Nuggets haven't been this high of favorites all season. They don't have leading scorer and their top player, Danilo Gallinari. He's out with an ankle injury that may sideline him the rest of the season. Kenneith Faried is the Nuggets' only other legitimate starter and he might sit out because of back pain. The Nuggets rely on Will Barton for a spark. But the streak-shooting Barton is in a cold-spell shooting only 30.4 percent from the floor in the last five games and going 0-for-12 the past three games from beyond the arc. 
The Lakers are often under priced in away contests. This is another example. LA has covered in six of its last eight road games. The road team is 7-1 ATS the past eight times in this series, too. 

Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode with four losses in its last five games, including the last three. Those defeats occurred to the Heat in overtime on the road, a one-point home loss to the Hornets, a nine point-home loss to the red-hot Trail Blazers - winners of 14 of their last 16 - and this past Monday to the Cavaliers, 100-96, on the road in a game that featured 25 lead changes, 17 ties and tough official's calls that went against Indiana. 
The Pacers are a frustrated team that should be highly focused for this matchup especially since Paul George called into question the team's toughness. Now the Pacers get to step down in class. The Pacers have lost a dozen games by four points or less. They are due to win one of these close ones. 
The Bucks are six games worse in the standings than the Pacers. They are fat and happy after beating the Rockets, 128-121, this past Monday at home. The Pacers aren't the Rockets, though. The Rockets don't play defense. The Pacers do ranking 10th in the league. They are better coached, too, than Houston.
Milwaukee leads the NBA in points in the paint, but rank 23rd in points per game. The Pacers have gotten better up front as rookie forward Myles Turner has been coming on strong since the All-Star break and center Ian Mahinmi is drawing more minutes. 
Milwaukee remains thin in the backcourt. The Bucks just got Jerry Bayless back, but now starting point guard Michael Carter-Williams is dealing with patella tendinitis and is questionable. George gives the Pacers the best player on the court and Indiana's backcourt depth is bolstered by the return of Rodney Stuckey. 

Now that plus 24 can be found, I'm going to hold my nose and take Rutgers. Yes, I know how bad the Scarlet Knights are. But this is a value play based on the return of Rutgers' star freshman point guard Corey Sanders and a look-ahead spot for Michigan State, which hosts Ohio State on Sunday. That will be Senior Day and the Spartans' final regular-season game. 
Sanders has missed the last four games due to a team suspension. His return should give Rutgers a lift. He's one of the most talented players in the Big Ten. Sanders makes the rest of the Scarlet Knights better. Tom Izzo has no reason to run up a score. It's late in the season and if the Spartans jump out big Izzo would be wise to rest his starters. 

Yes, the Lakers are in tank mode. But eight losses in a row are enough for them. They don't want to be embarrassed at home by the Nets.
Brooklyn is 6-21 on the road. The Nets are playing in their fifth road game in eight days. The Lakers have been idle since Friday. Clearly, this is a good situational spot for the Lakers. 
The Lakers defeated the Nets in Brooklyn back in November. The Lakers hold a backcourt edge and have far more youthful talent than Brooklyn. D'Angelo Russell has been coming on for the Lakers, while the Nets' thin backcourt took a hit with last night's loss to the Clippers when Wayne Ellington may have suffered a concussion. He's likely to sit out. 

Orlando is averaging 111 points in its last eight games. Dallas is averaging 117 points in its last seven games. Both teams are mediocre on defense ranking 14th and 15th, respectively, in points allowed per game.

The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last eight road games. The Mavericks have gone over the total in eight straight games. 

Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. 
I expect a much stronger defensive effort from Kentucky after John Calipari lit into his team about giving the Commodores too many layups and dunks. Star Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis also is in back bounce mode after a rare terrible performance. 
Florida is 2-8 against top 50 RIP ranked teams. The Gators are surrendering an average of 85 points during their last three games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. 
The Wildcats rolled past the Gators, 80-61, nearly a month ago in the first meeting despite not having third-leading scoring Alex Poythress. The senior forward is healthy for this game. 

Memphis is 10 games above .500 and 4-2 since losing its best player, Marc Gasol, to a broken right foot. The Grizzlies are still a borderline playoff team without Gasol, at their best versus lower tier opponents such as the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have defeated Denver four straight times and are in a great spot to continue that streak.
The Grizzlies should be primed for a strong, concentrated effort after an embarrassing, 111-106, road loss to the Suns on Saturday. This is what Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was quoted as saying following that loss: "We still feel like we are rolling right now and playing good basketball. For us to come out and not play our best, I think our focus level wasn't where it need to be." 
Denver is 13 games below .500. The Nuggets are headed for worse, too, after losing their best player, Danilo Gallinari. He suffered a severe ankle injury in the Nuggets' last game, a 122-116 overtime loss to the Mavericks. 
Gallinari is the key to the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points and also is the man when the offense breaks down -which it often does - by his ability to get to the free throw line when nothing is going on. Gallinari connects on 86.8 percent of his free throws. Even with Gallinari's great free throw percentage, the Nuggets rank 16th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 76.5 percent. Now that mediocre percentage is headed lower with Gallinari sidelined. Denver went 1-5 in December when Gallinari missed six games with another ankle injury. 
The Grizzlies still have the veteran savvy, huge point guard edge with Conley and bench to cover this short road number against a Denver team that could be reduced to a starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and JaKarr Sampson. Faried is the only legitimate starter of that bunch. 

The Heat have dominated the Knicks, winning eight of the past nine times, including going 4-0 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden.
Miami is the superior team, but the oddsmaker has downgraded the Heat because they have injuries and played on Saturday. 
Chris Bosh, second-string point guard Beno Udrih and third-string point guard Tyler Johnson are all out for the Miami. But the Heat just signed veteran Joe Johnson, who may be able to play, and are 3-2 since the All-Streak break minus Bosh beating three decent Eastern Conference teams - Hawks, Wizards and Pacers. The Heat's lone defeats since break have come against the Warriors by six points and on the road against the Celtics, who have won 10 in a row at home. 
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference games and steps way down in class. Fatigue shouldn't be that much of a problem because the Heat played a day game yesterday. Miami has a winning record when playing without rest. They've adjusted to the loss of Bosh with veteran Luol Deng stepping up. Johnson isn't a big loss. 
The Knicks are lottery-bound again. They are a bit fat and happy after beating Orlando, 108-95, this past Friday. Before that game, though, the Knicks had dropped nine of 10. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. New York also isn't entirely healthy. Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis all missed practice on Saturday with assorted injuries. 

Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack.
Now it's rematch time and the Wolf Pack are likely to be missing Coleman, their leading scorer. He has a severely sprained ankle. It would be a surprise if he played. The Wolf Pack are not a deep team. Colorado State is not a good matchup for them. The Rams are an up-tempo, high scoring team that draws the seventh most fouls in the country. They rank 31st in the country averaging 79.9 points a game. 
The Wolf Pack have struggled with the higher scoring teams in the Mountain West Conference while faring better versus the grind-out type teams. This is the wrong opponent at the wrong time for Nevada-Reno. 

Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. 
This is a huge loss for the Wildcats, who don't have anyone averaging double figures in scoring aside from Senglin and Bolomboy. Losing Bolomboy also hurts the Wildcats defensively as he is their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He also averages 17.6 points a game. 
Montana ranks among the top 40 in defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have won seven of their past eight games, including the last five. This is the first time they've been an underdog in a Big Sky Conference game all season. Martin Breunig, the Grizzlies' 6-8 senior forward, should be in line for a big game without Bolomboy to hinder him. Breunig leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 19 points a game. 
Weber State has failed to cover in its last six games, including the past three at home. The Wildcats are overrated and vulnerable missing Bolomboy. 

Even a well-coached, veteran team such as the Spurs can be excused if they are anxious to finally get home. This marks the final game of the Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip." They are 6-1 in their last seven games, all on the road. 
The Rockets have covered the past six times at home versus San Antonio. Houston should have its confidence up, too, after overcoming a 21-point second-half deficit to defeat red-hot Portland on the road this past Thursday. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS the past 13 times facing Houston. 
Both James Harden and Dwight Howard are playing well. Harden is averaging 34.4 points in five games following All-Star break. Howard has posted five double-doubles in his last six games. 

New Orleans could be in for a letdown facing the lowly Timberwolves after upsetting the Thunder at home on Thursday. The Pelicans are 7-13 ATS as chalk while the Timberwolves have covered 13 of their last 18 on the road when facing a foe with a winning home mark.
The Timberwolves are getting excellent play from big men Karl Anthony Towns, the likely Rookie of the Year, and Gorgui Dieng, who has hit 15 of 19 shots from the floor during the last two games. They can counter some of Anthony Davis' dominance. I like the Timberwolves' edge at point guard, too, with Ricky Rubio. 

Oklahoma State has multiple injuries. That's always tough on a team, but it is made especially worse when taking on West Virginia. The Mountaineers have excellent depth and play tough, pressing defense. 

West Virginia won 77-60 at home when Oklahoma State was healthy. The Mountaineers should be focused, too, having last played on Monday. 

The Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS during the past five meetings between the two teams. 

I'm far from convinced Kentucky even has better talent than Vanderbilt. We know the Wildcats struggle on the road where they have lost to Auburn, Tennessee, Kansas, Texas A&M, Ohio State and UCLA.

Kentucky isn't that big this season. Vanderbilt is with three 7-footers. That's a reason why the Commodores have the best defense in the SEC while leading the league in blocks. They also rank No. 2 in 3-point defense. 

Vanderbilt is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Kentucky. The Wildcats lack great depth and might be without Derek Willis, who has an ankle injury. 

This is a big revenge spot for Indiana. The Hornets whipped the Pacers by 23 points on Feb. 10. That was the game, though, where the Hornets lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, their best defender, for the season. 

Despite that injury the Hornets were riding high winning five in a row until falling 114-103 on the road to the Cavaliers two nights ago. I could envision the Hornets letting down after their streak was snapped.
Paul George is having a huge season for the Pacers. George had 22 points in the Feb. 10 loss, but rookie forward Myles Turner contributed only 10 points. Turner is playing much better now averaging 17 points since the All-Star break. 
Indiana is at its point spread best versus Eastern Conference opponents going 21-10-1 ATS for 68 percent. 

San Antonio is a very good team without Kawhi Leonard. But when they have Leonard, the Spurs rank with the Warriors as the top team in the NBA. Leonard came back last night after missing three games with a calf injury and helped spark the Spurs to an easy 16-point win against the Kings. Leonard will be less rusty now that he's had a game.
Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were idle the previous two days. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. The Spurs are at least several tiers higher than Utah. The Spurs have a huge coaching, guard and bench edge. 
San Antonio gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and has the highest margin of victory. When Leonard is in the lineup, the Spurs allowed just 92 points a game. The Jazz average 98.4 a game, which ranks 26th. 

Considering the class difference and matchup - the Spurs are 2-0 versus the Jazz this season winning by 25 and 37 points - San Antonio should easily be able to cover this number. 

Texas State upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 61-57, at home in its last game. The Bobcats, though, are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a spread cover and 0-4 ATS following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five Sun Belt games. 
Arkansas State should be pumped returning home and getting to face a weaker opponent. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS at home following three or more straight road games. 

The Spurs haven't been real sharp coming out of the All-Star break. The Clippers destroyed them by 19 points and they only beat the Lakers by six points and Suns by seven points. San Antonio failed to cover any of these three road games. Up until the All-Star break the Spurs had never gone more than two straight games without covering the spread. They still have a winning road spread mark and have had two full days off to regroup and get motivated for this matchup. 
It's a nice plus if defensive stopper and team leading scorer Kawhi Leonard can play tonight. He's missed the last three games with a calf injury. I understand that Leonard's absence has had a lot to do with the Spurs failing to cover in their last three games following the break. But I still like them in this spot as Sacramento is coming off a narrow victory against the Nuggets in Denver last night. 
Since Jan. 26, the Kings have played without rest twice. They lost and failed to cover in those games against Portland and Cleveland by a combined 35 points. They also are 0-4 in their last four meetings against the Spurs losing the last one, 106-88, at home on Nov. 9. 
The Spurs rank No. 1 defensively, while the Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA. 

South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. 
Tennessee is coming off an impressive 81-65 home victory against LSU. However, the Volunteers haven't won back-to-back SEC games all season and are 0-6-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. They also aren't likely to have have leading scorer, Kevin Punter. He missed the victory against the Tigers because of a stress fracture in his foot. Teams often play well the first time without their star player with the rest of the team stepping up wanting to prove something. It's more difficult the second time without a star especially following a victory. 
Punter scored 36 points when Tennessee defeated South Carolina, 78-69, at home on Jan. 23. So this is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who lead the SEC in rebounding and have a substantial frontcourt height advantage. 

Discount a 95-point performance against the Knicks two games ago and Minnesota is scoring an average of 111.7 points per game during its last seven games. The over is 12-3-1 in the Timberwolves' last 16 games. 

Toronto has scored at least 101 points in 15 of its last 17 games. The over is 6-2-1 in the Raptors' last nine games.

First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups.
Second, the Rebels are near depleted. Already down big men Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter, their two leading rebounders, the Rebels now won't have key reserve Dwayne Morgan, who had been averaging close to 20 minutes. He's out with a shoulder injury. That leaves the Rebels down to six scholarship players.
The third key factor here is the situation. UNLV is off a crazy overtime victory against in-state rival Nevada this past Saturday at home. The Rebels tied the game on a 3-pointer by Patrick Macaw right before the buzzer sending the game into overtime. 
The spot is a double edge sword because not only do the Rebels have to come down from that high, pulling out a game against their most hated rival, but Boise State is rested, ready and has revenge. The Broncos last played on Wednesday. They blew a 76-61 lead to lose on the road to New Mexico in their last game. 
So not only are the Broncos itching to erase that stench, but have payback for a 10-point road loss to the Rebels. UNLV had Zimmerman and Carter in that matchup. The two combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in that game. 
Boise State is up-tempo. The Rebels are going to be hard-pressed to keep up with the Broncos being short-handed and at a tough road venue. 

OK, at this high of a total I'll hold my nose and go under with these two teams. They just met Friday and the final score totaled 226. But I see the Nuggets holding the Kings to fewer than 116 points unlike in the last meeting. 
Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows the Kings well from having coached them and he was very unhappy with Denver's defense. He's astute enough to make proper adjustments especially against star center DeMarcus Cousins. 
The Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA. Denver, though, ranks 20th in scoring averaging 100.7 points per game and is 26th in field goal percentage. The Kings have been idle for the last three days so they could be rusty. 

Only four teams score more points than the Rockets. But the Rockets rank 27th defensively. Houston has yielded triple digits in 10 of its last 11 games. The over has cashed in 15 of Houston's last 18 Western Conference games. James Harden is on a hot streak averaging better than 32 points during his last four games. 

Utah's scoring is up. The Jazz have scored 111 points in each of their last two games. Rodney Hood has emerged as a scoring force, Raul Netto has improved at point guard and Derrick Favors' return gives the Jazz improved offense up front. 

Adding veteran Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings while getting rid of Channing Frye has made Orlando a better team. The Magic came back from All-Star break by defeating Dallas after falling 21 points behind. The Magic then lost a close game to Indiana, 105-102.
Now the Magic step way, way down in class. Scott Skiles has the Magic fighting for a playoff spot. Orlando can't take a loss here. The Magic's next games are against Golden State at home on Thursday followed by a road matchup versus the Knicks on Friday. 
Orlando also has revenge for a 96-87 home loss to the 76ers on Jan. 20. The Magic were at low ebb back then. They are better now.  
The 76ers have gotten better, but they still are a bottom four team. Philadelphia has failed to cover in 20 of its last 27 Eastern Conference games while the Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against foes with a winning percentage of less than .400.

This is going to be a tough number for Kentucky to cover. Alabama is very strong as underdogs under Avery Johnson and the Wildcats have injuries and a fatigue factor working against them playing for the third time in six days. 
The Crimson Tide is 11-3 ATS the last 14 times they've been underdogs. They've won straight-up as 'dogs of at least seven points against LSU, Florida, Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson. Alabama is 7-1 ATS the past eight times taking on a foe with a winning mark.  
One key factor why the Crimson Tide are so tough as a big underdog is their slow pace. No SEC team plays slower or more deliberate. Kentucky actually is second next to Alabama in slowest offensive tempo in the SEC. The Wildcats are further hamstrung likely missing their third and fifth-leading scorers, Alex Poythress and Derek Willis. 

The Warriors aren't just great at home. They also are an NBA-best 25-5 on the road, including 18-11-1 (62 percent) ATS on the road. The Warriors also are 12-5 following a non-spread cover. 
Atlanta already has lost six more games than it did all of last season. The Hawks aren't in good form either losing and failing to cover in four of their last five. Both teams are playing for the third time in four days, but the Warriors have the stronger bench. 
Hawks point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with a wrist injury. The Warriors have a couple of their big men out, but the Hawks are not a good rebounding team. Atlanta also is missing backup big man Tiago Splitter, out for the year after hip surgery. 

The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee has been a bad point spread team at home all season. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home contests. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover, which came for the first time at home this past Saturday, 88-54, over Cleveland State.
The Panthers brought their "A" game to that matchup. They have Horizon League leader Valparaiso up next at home on Friday. 
So look for the Panthers to overlook Youngstown State in this flat spot. The Penguins have some talent, but are extremely young. They have a winning spread road mark, though, and have enough to cover this number if the Panthers don't play well. 

Charlotte is more of an over team after losing Michael Kidd- Gilchrist for the season with another shoulder injury. The Hornets have inside scoring with Al Jefferson back from injury to complement Kemba Walker from the perimeter. Walker is having a big season and is hot averaging nearly 25 points per game during his last five games. New pick-up Courtney Lee is more offensive-minded than Gilchrist. 
The Nets have reached triple digits in six of their last eight games. 

The Pistons have covered 64 percent of their home games this season and have revenge for an embarrassing 115-99 road loss to New Orleans from last month. 
While Detroit is a top home team, New Orleans is a terrible road team. The Pelicans are 6-21 away from home, 11-16 ATS. The Pistons have covered nine of the last 11 times against opponents with a losing road mark. New Orleans also is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
The Pistons upgraded themselves at the trade deadline. Their main pickup, Tobias Harris, scored 21 points off the bench this past Friday against the Wizards in his Detroit debut. 
New Orleans is the longest of shots to get a playoff berth. Detroit, on the other hand, is very much in playoff contention. The Pistons can't afford to be flat here at home with a road game against the Cavaliers on Monday. 
I see the Pistons going all out to halt their four-game losing streak. Anthony Davis is an outstanding big man, but Detroit's Andre Drummond is having as good as any season a big man is having. He is leading the league in rebounding and has a higher field goal percentage than Davis. 

This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. 
The Anteaters have revenge for a road loss to Hawaii. Before that loss, Cal Irivne had covered four in a row versus the Rainbow Warriors. The Anteaters are 10-1 at home this season and have covered 10 of their last 14 Big West games.
Cal Irvine ranks 42nd in the country in defense holding foes to less than 66 points a game. The Anteaters have a big rebound/shot blocking edge at center with 7-foot-6 Mamedou Ndiaye. 
Hawaii also could be without guard Aaron Valdes, its second-leading scorer. He's been sick with the flu so even if he plays he may still be under the weather.

Golden State is the best team in basketball. The Warriors haven't dropped two in a row all season - and I don't see it happening here. The Warriors should be extremely focused and fired-up following a shocking 137-105 road loss to Portland Friday night. The Trail Blazers are tough at home and brought their "A" game. The Warriors were rusty and not as focused as they should have been coming off All-Star break. 
The Clippers are off a hugely-satisfying 19-point home win versus San Antonio two nights ago. The Clippers are more bullies than elite. I question their mental makeup and heart. The Clippers are 5-12-1 ATS against foes who have a winning percentage above .600. They are 6-13 ATS at home versus opponents who sport a winning road mark. I don't see the Clippers being able to beat the Spurs and Warriors in a row even at home. 
Golden State has covered 64 percent of its road games this season and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Pacific Division games. The Warriors still will be fresh, too. This is just the Warriors' second game in 10 days and none of their players logged more than 30 minutes last night. 
There are plenty of All-Stars in this matchup, but none the caliber of Stephen Curry, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. No one can guard Curry certainly none of the Clippers' weak backcourt defenders. Golden State has defeated the Clippers four consecutive times, including winning both meetings this season. 

These teams are very close. Each is 21-7 overall and 10-5 in the Missouri Valley Conference. It's also a conference rivalry matchup so taking this many points looms large. Evansville pulled out an overtime victory against Southern Illinois on Jan. 28 after forcing overtime on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. The Salukis want revenge. 
Evansville could have matchup problems with Sean O'Brien, who is becoming a force for Southern Illinois. O'Brien is coming off a 24-point performance in Southern Illinois' last game and had 16 points and seven rebounds against the Purple Aces in the first meeting.
The Salukis have been more than solid away from home covering eight of their last 10 road games. The Purple Aces, on the other hand, are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home contests. 

Butler played Villanova tough in their first meeting losing 60-55 after leading by seven points early in the second half. The Bulldogs catch Villanova in a tough scheduling spot.

The Wildcats defeated Temple in a rivalry matchup and play at Xavier in a key Big East battle in their next game. Villanova is 12-1 in the Big East while Xavier is in second place at 11-3. 

Villanova has failed to cover five of the past six times it has laid double-digits and is 1-4 ATS at home when taking on an opponent with a winning road record. 

The oddsmaker has to set a high total like this because Sacramento gives up the most points per game in the NBA at 109.1. Denver is a below average defensive team, too, surrendering 103.4 points a game. 
So on the surface this high total makes sense. However, there are several key factors below the surface that point to these teams not reaching this high number. 
Denver entered the All-Star break playing better defense. If you discount a 115-110 Denver victory against Chicago, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 95 points during their last six games. Much of this has to do with Michael Malone, who is an excellent defensive coach and is in his first season with the Nuggets after getting letting go at Sacramento. He'll be fired up to coach against the Kings, who he obviously knows well. Neither team wants to show too much since they play each other again on Tuesday. 
This is a crucial game for the Kings, who can't take a loss here if they are serious about making the playoffs. Sacramento should be primed for an all-out effort since their next game isn't until they play the Nuggets again on Tuesday at Denver. That's followed by home games against the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder.  
The Kings nearly fired coach George Karl during All-Star break. A major reason for this is the Kings' lackadaisical approach to defense. If it doesn't improve - and fast - Karl is likely gone. The Kings have had more than a week to clean this up. They have to be tired of constantly hearing about how bad their defense is. The Nuggets have a weak scoring backcourt. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay shoots 34 percent from the floor and veteran Randy Foye got dealt on Thursday. So it's not too much to expect the Kings to slow down Denver's attack. 
Both teams figure to be rusty, too, after the long layoff. In the first NBA action following All-Star break, each of the three Thursday games went under the total. 
The Kings also may be missing their fourth and sixth-leading scorers as both Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli are questionable after each had wisdom teeth pulled. 

Harvard is down this season. The Crimson have failed to cover an Ivy League game all season. But this still is a lot of points for this series. It's too many in my view because the linemaker has shaded Columbia too much and the marketplace has nudged the line even higher.
The teams met at the end of last month and Columbia nipped Harvard, 55-54, after the Crimson blew a big lead. The Lions were just 1 1/2-point favorites in that game. Harvard is primed for revenge. 
Last year, Harvard was favored by five and nine points in the two meetings. Harvard won both of those games, including beating Columbia on the road by 10 points. Columbia has covered only one of its last five home games. 

Florida Atlantic has improved its outside shooting and catches Rice in a letdown spot following the Owls' road upset victory against Old Dominion. The Owls are 1-6-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. They also are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight Conference USA games. 
Rice ranks 335th in defense yielding 80.7 points a game. The Owls also rate a lowly 344th in defensive field goal percentage and 347th in 3-point defense. Florida Atlantic is averaging 80.5 points in its last two games.

The Wizards started slow last season, but ended up finishing 10 games above .500, earned the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and swept the Raptors in the first round. 
Now, though, at the All-Star break the Wizards find themselves in 10th place, three games away from the playoffs. Basically the Wizards have nearly the same roster. I expect them to make a move now that Bradley Beal is healthy and John Wall is having a superstar-type season. Wall suffered a bruised knee in the Wizards' final game before the break, but showed he was OK scoring 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the All-Star Game. 
Utah is 26-26. The line is priced too low in my opinion because the Jazz entered break winning seven of their last eight games. But those victories came on the road against the Mavericks in overtime, at the Suns and the rest were at home versus the struggling Bulls, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets. That's not exactly Murder's Row. The Jazz have failed to cover in nine of their last 13 away games. 
This matchup could be a season-defining moment for the Wizards. They can't waste any time getting things turned around especially taking a home loss to this mediocre opponent with their trumped-up recent record. 
This game was supposed to be played last month, but a massive snowstorm caused a postponement. Because of that, Washington has to play Detroit at Verizon Center on Friday and then at Miami on Saturday. That's three games in three days. 

We know Utah is strong defensively. The Jazz rank No. 3 in scoring defense holding foes to 96.4 points a game. The Jazz are particularly tough on Eastern Conference foes who rarely see them. That's born out in the under cashing 21 of the past 30 times the Jazz have met an Eastern Conference opponent. 
But what about the Wizards? They ranked fifth in defensive efficiency last season, but have dropped all the way to 21st this season. Wizards coach Randy Wittman has been stressing defense all week. The Wizards can get burned by great athletes. The Jazz, though, don't have a dynamic offense, nor big-time scorers. 
Utah ranks 26th in scoring at 97.8 points per game. The Wizards have held the Jazz to an average of 86 points during the past three meetings. The under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the two clubs. 
The under also has won in 11 of Washington's last 15 home contests. There's the chance, too, that veteran swingman Alan Anderson makes his season debut for the Wizards after being out all season following ankle surgery. He's a high-energy, stalwart defender who would be a plus to the under. 
The offenses aren't likely to be in rhythm either due to the week-long All-Star break. There's also a possibility of the teams being involved in a trade today, which could leave them short-handed, or affect their offenses if an important cog is missing. 

Tennessee State is the better team. The Tigers are 9-3 in the Ohio Valley Conference just one-half game behind Belmont and Tennessee Tech. The Tigers have momentum having won three in a row and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. 
The Tigers last played on Saturday. while Morehead State had to play on Tuesday although it was an easy victory, 105-66, over NAIA foe St. Catharine.
Tennessee State defeated Morehead State in the first meeting this season, 77-76, just 12 days ago. The Tigers led by double-digits with two minutes left before Morehead State made the final look closer than it was by hitting a late number of 3-pointers. The Tigers won that game despite playing without their leading scorer and rebounder. 

Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. 
Houston is much the superior team. The Cougars proved that when they routed the Green Wave, 63-45, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 5. Tulane's previous two home games before upsetting Memphis were against Central Florida and South Florida. The Green Wave lost both of those games straight-up as a home favorite. They lost by eight to Central Florida and by 13 to South Florida. 
Houston averages 78.6 points per game. The Cougars hold foes to less than 70 points a game while compiling an 18-7 record. They are 5-1 in their last six games. 
Tulane holds foes to 70 points a game, but doesn't have the offense to keep up with Houston ranking 304th in scoring at 66.7 points a game and 327th in shooting percentage at 40.3 percent. Houston is the better team and also peaking while Tulane is a letdown mode after its biggest win of the season.  

Providence has revenge for a 75-68 home loss to Xavier on Jan. 26. Xavier shot 50 percent from the floor in that game. The Friars were getting 1 1/2 points for that matchup. Now they are getting much more and catch Xavier in a letdown spot.
Xavier is off a 17-point road upset win of Butler this past Saturday. The Musketeers have their own revenge game up next against Georgetown and then host Big East Conference leader Villanova next Wednesday in a game that may determine first place in the league. Xavier is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Providence needs this victory for its tournament resume. 
The Friars went 12-1 in nonconference. They've found things more difficult in the competitive Big East, but still have covered 75 percent of their road games this season and own straight-up road victories against Villanova, Georgetown, Creighton and Butler. The Friars were underdogs in each of those games. Going back to last season, Providence has covered 10 its past 12 away matchups. The Friars are as good a road team as any in the country. 

Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. 
Since then the Cardinals have been road 'dogs eight straight times. The last being this past Saturday when they upset Central Michigan - the team picked to capture the Mid-American West Division - 75-63 as eight-point 'dogs. 
Ball State is 0-5 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cardinals have a bigger game on deck hosting Northern Illinois on Friday. So this is a potential trap spot for the Cardinals, who have lacked consistency all season. Since the beginning of MAC play, the Cardinals haven't won more than two consecutive games. 
Ball State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 MAC matchups and 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing at Miami of Ohio. The Red Hawks should have defeated Ball State in the first meeting as 6 1/2-road 'dogs on Jan. 16. Ball State came back from 14 points down to win, 48-46. 

The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. 

At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. 
If you go by the Pomeroy ratings, you'll find Oakland ranked 101st and Wright State rated 138th. Oakland is the superior team and Wright State's home-court isn't enough to offset that edge even acknowledging that the Raiders have won 10 in a row at Nutter Center. 
Wright State last played at home nine days ago. The Raiders are off a huge road win against Horizon League leader Valparaiso this past Saturday, The Raiders, 13-point underdogs in that game, won on a last-second putback basket by Biggie Minnis. 
It may take a while for the Raiders to come down after that victory. They are 4-10 ATS following a cover and have failed to cover in five of their last six games played on Monday. 
Oakland is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.1 points a game, which ranks second nationally. The Golden Grizzlies are No. 1 in the conference in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Oakland guard Kay Felder leads the league in scoring at 24.7 per game. He had 33 points when the Grizzlies buried the Raiders, 89-63, on Jan. 22. Wright State failed to slow the tempo down in that matchup. 
The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Horizon League without a conference road loss. They've won their past six away games and are 21-4-1 ATS following a victory. They have too much offense for Wright State, averaging nearly 20 points more per game than the Raiders. 

Normally I don't get involved with All-Star games, but this game is an exception.

The West roster isn't just better than the East roster - it's vastly superior. LeBron James is the only player on the East I would rate as among the top 10 players in the game. The West has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden and Chris Paul. 

The East can't come close to matching that talent and depth. The West also has a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, against novice Tyronn Lue, who shouldn't even be coaching in this game. 

The West has multiple teammates playing - Durant, Westbrook from the Thunder, Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge from the Spurs and Curry, Green and Klay Thompson from the Warriors. These guys are all used to playing with each other. 

These huge edges are more than enough to overcome the randomness factor that can pop up in exhibition games. 

Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home -  coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points. 
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season. 
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving up less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games. 
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot. 

Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine.
The Anteaters are 8-1 at home, but the Matadors have covered the last five times they've been on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage above .600. Northridge has covered four of its five Big West road contests.
The Matadors last played on Wednesday defeating Cal-State Fullerton, 75-67, at home. Irvine had to play on Thursday in Honolulu losing a Big West showdown battle with host Hawaii, 74-52. The Anteaters have a quick rematch with Hawaii hosting them next Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Anteaters have to get their sea legs back under them, along with their mental focus, returning back to California for this matchup. It's not a great spot for the Anteaters and Northridge has enough going to keep it close. 

This is the game where Kentucky proves itself on the road. 
Yes, Frank Martin has South Carolina on the upswing. But the Wildcats have beaten the Gamecocks in eight of the last nine meetings, including sweeping them two games last season winning by an average of 19.5 points a game. 
The Wildcats are coming off blowout home victories versus Florida and Georgia. Kentucky's leading scorer, Jamal Murray, is expected to play after sitting out Thursday's practice with a sore knee. 
Kentucky is 14-0 at home, but is 2-6 in its last eight road games. The Wildcats should be super focused hearing about their road woes and with upcoming away matchups against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Florida on the schedule. Those three teams are a combined 36-4 at home this season. 
Talent certainly isn't a problem for the Wildcats. They nearly beat then ranked No. 4 Kansas on the road losing in overtime on Jan. 30. If Kentucky would have won that game you would be hearing far less about its so-called road problems.
The Wildcats can hurt South Carolina inside and take advantage of the weak Gamecocks' 3-point defense. 

Now that this game has nudged up to five, I'm going to get involved with road underdog Loyola-Marymount. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering the past five times.
The Lions have revenge for a narrow 60-58 loss to Pacific in the team's first meeting this season. The Lions have a good coach, Mike Dunlap, and their young talent has gotten more needed seasoning as we move near the middle of February. 
But the main handicap is a fade on Pacific. The Tigers are off one of the biggest upsets of the season, snapping BYU's 17-game home win streak, 77-72, this past Saturday as 17-point underdogs. 
So this is a natural letdown spot for the Tigers, who won't be going to any postseason tournament due to a self-imposed ban for academic misconduct violations. The Lions can be pesky defensively and the Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus foes with a losing road record. 

New Orleans doesn't have the defense to control the Thunder. The Pelicans rank 24th both in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points a game and has been averaging 112.4 points during its last 15 games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are each playing at high levels and the Thunder have the big bodies in Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to slow down Anthony Davis. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during his last three games.
The spot is ripe, too, for Oklahoma City. New Orleans has won two in a row. Those victories were against Minnesota and Utah. Now the Pelicans jump way up in class following a narrow 100-96 home win against the Jazz last night. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS following a cover. This is the Pelicans' third game in four nights. Their depth is down with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out. 
The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their lone loss during their last seven games coming on the road to Golden State. 

San Jose State is much improved. That improvement has shown up well on the road where the Spartans have covered eight of the last nine times. They also are 8-2 in their last 10 Mountain West Conference games and should be fresh for this matchup having been idle the past week. The Spartans have double revenge motivation from losing twice last season to the Rebels. 

UNLV has key injuries, which has left the inconsistent Rebels with a short rotation. They are not strong enough to cover a margin this high against this underrated opponent down their two best big men. The Rebels have allowed an average of 87.5 points during regulation in their last two games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games. 

The Spartans didn't win a conference game last season, but are 3-8 so far this year in the Mountain West. That record becomes 8-3 when a pointspread is attached. 

If the Warriors ever are going to have a letdown this is the game. This is Golden State's final game before All-Star break. During the past four days, the Warriors beat the Thunder and Rockets last night in a rematch of the Western Conference finals. Three Golden State players will be heading out to play in the All-Star Game. At 47-4, the Warriors have set the record for best 51-game record in NBA history. This is a fun spot and a well-deserved rest stop for the Warriors. 
The Suns can't defend or match Golden State's firepower. But there is far less of a chance of the Suns mailing this one in than Golden State. This is the Suns' opportunity at home to test themselves against the best. Before the coaching change from Jeff Hornacek to Earl Watson, I wouldn't have gotten near the Suns in this matchup. 
But morale in Phoenix is much improved under Watson. So is the effort. The Suns have played four good-to-respectable teams under Watson - Raptors, Rockets, Jazz and Thunder. They are 2-2 ATS in those games with only one loss being by more than nine points. That came against the Thunder this past Monday. The Suns were hanging in - actually leading by six in the third quarter - before coming undone victim of a late Kevin Durant hot streak. 
Watson has turned around Markieff Morris, who is averaging 11 more points under Watson than he did Hornacek, and has helped unheralded Archie Goodwin show signs of becoming a respectable point guard. Goodwin is averaging 18.5 points and 7.3 assists under Watson, a former point guard. 

 

Missouri Valley Conference teams are known for defense and good coaching. But the oddsmaker has set too low of a total in this matchup. Yes, Bradley nipped Loyola, 54-53, during the team's first meeting. That was just a combined 107 points.
But each team has picked up its scoring since then. Heck, Loyola is averaging 74.6 points during regulation in its last three games. 

Bradley is averaging 68 points a game during its last three games as Braves coach Brian Wardle has finally found the right rotation to bring more punch to his team's lineup. The Braves were averaging only 53.9 points during their first 22 games. Things have changed now. 

I like Brad Stevens a lot. But there exits a huge talent gap between Stevens' Celtics and the Clippers. LA has enough star power to go 18-4 despite not having Blake Griffin the last 22 games. The Clippers don't need Griffin to beat Boston on the road especially given the circumstances of the matchup. 
The Clippers have been on the East Coast the past three days after getting away with a lackluster performance in a 98-92 overtime win against the 76ers this past Monday. The Celtics, on the other hand, are crossing a time zone flying into Boston in the wee hours of the morning following a bizarre 112-111 road loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night. The Celtics clawed their way back from 18 points down in the final quarter to tie the game only to lose on a free throw by Khris Middleton with less than a second left after a deadball foul had been called.  
The Clippers have won 12 of their past 14 away contests. They feast on Eastern Conference foes going 11-3 in their last 14 games against them. They've covered 72 percent of their past 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents.  LA received its wakeup call against the 76ers during its last game. The Clippers have covered each of the last eight times following a non-cover and also are 9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 
Because of Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce, the Clippers get extra motivated when they play the Celtics especially in Boston. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS during their past six trips to Boston winning each of the four meetings since Rivers left the Celtics to become LA's coach. 
The Celtics have a strong bench. They are better than most teams when playing without rest. But Jamal Crawford - a streak shooter - has been the hottest reserve player in the NBA averaging 22 points during his last five games. 
The Clippers are at their best in these type of matchups, beating up a weaker Eastern Conference foe. The Clippers have the talent edge, are in a good spot already being in Boston before the Celtics arrive and have the motivation knowing they can't get away with being flat against this caliber of opponent especially when their first two games following All-Star break are against the two best teams in basketball - San Antonio and Golden State. 

OK, no Marc Gasol. Out with a broken bone in his right foot following Monday's overtime loss to Portland, which was the Grizzlies' second consecutive home overtime loss having also fallen to Dallas this past Saturday. This is the first time the Grizzlies have lost consecutive games in six weeks. 
Gasol is Memphis' best player. His absence hurts the Grizzlies' interior defense and inside scoring. Memphis probably can kiss goodbye any hopes of drawing the fourth or fifth seed in the Western Conference playoff chase with Gasol sidelined indefinitely. 
But the oddsmaker has made too much of an adjustment for Gasol's loss in this matchup. The prideful, veteran-laden Grizzlies aren't going into All-Star break riding a three-game losing with a loss to the lowly Nets. 
Until these back-to-back home overtime losses, the Grizzlies had been playing their best ball going 11-2. They will take care of business being extra pumped to prove themselves in their first game without Gasol. It helps drawing such a weak opponent. 
The Grizzlies bring a tougher mindset than the Nets - especially with this being each team's final game before the week-long All-Star break - play far superior defense, have a much stronger bench and need this game far more than the apathetic Nets. Gasol is out, but the Grizzlies still hold numerous edges, including a major one at point guard with Mike Conley. Memphis has covered in its last seven games against Eastern Conference foes. 
Brooklyn, for one of the rare times, actually is fat and happy. The Nets have won two of their last three games, nipping Denver by one point at home in their last game this past Monday. The last time Brooklyn won two straight was two months ago. I highly doubt the driftless Nets want to win as much as the Grizzlies do in this last game before vacation and with each team playing for the fourth time in six days. 
The Nets are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games even though their pointspreads often are inflated. They also are 2-9-1 ATS the past 12 times going against foes with a winning record. 
Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive field goal percentage. The Nets have surrendered 110 points per game during their last four games, a figure that would rank last in the league if taken for the entire season. The Grizzlies are averaging 104.9 points and 48.7 percent shooting during their last 12 games. Those figures would rank seventh and third, respectively, if computed for a full season. 

The Knicks are broke and interim coach Kurt Rambis isn't going to fix them. Rambis was horrible when he coached the Timberwolves from 2009 to 2011 and he takes over a bad situation that isn't likely to get resolved until next season, certainly not during the brief period before All-Star break. 
The short Derek Fisher era was a disaster for the Knicks. New York was 40-96 during his reign. That's the worst percentage of any Knicks coach lasting longer than a season. Fisher was the Rich Kottie of New York basketball coaches. 
The Knicks are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have dropped five in a row failing to cover any of their last five. Yes, the Wizards are struggling, too. But they are a level above the Knicks, match up well to New York and catch the Knicks in a horrible transition spot. Not only is morale low with the Knicks, but there is dissension among the coaching ranks with the hiring of Rambis. 
New York is well deserving of its losing streak averaging fewer than 96 points during its last 10 games while surrendering more than 106 points per game during its last 15 contests. This the Knicks' final game before having 10 days off for All-Star break. I could very well see them mailing this one in. 
But what about the Wizards? The record shows they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. It also reveals Washington, though, to have played very tough opponents during this span including the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics twice, Rockets, Heat and Trail Blazers. 
The Wizards have had three days to stew about blowing a 19-point road lead to the Hornets this past Saturday in a 108-104 loss. The good news is John Wall continues to play at a high level, Bradley Beal is out of his minutes limitation and Nene could return for this game. Unlike the Knicks, the Wizards hold realistic playoff hopes and should have a great deal of urgency for this game. 
Washington hasn't dropped three consecutive road games all season. The Wizards have covered seven of their last nine road matchups. They have played their best against Eastern Conference clubs going 14-6 ATS. They also have beaten the Knicks seven of the past eight times while winning four in a row at Madison Square Garden.

The revenge angle really factors here with Tennessee remembering an 83-77 road loss to Auburn to begin its SEC season back at the start of January. The Volunteers can really take advantage of the Tigers' backcourt shortage due to injuries and suspension of leading scorer and assist man Kareem Canty and Auburn being in a five-game losing streak.

Minus Canty, the Tigers lost 65-55 to Georgia this past Saturday. It was their worst shooting game of the season for the Tigers as they made just 25.9 percent from the floor. Tennessee is itching to go after suffering a blowout loss to Arkansas in its last game. That was a natural letdown after an upset win over Kentucky. The Volunteers will be much better prepared for this game.

Tennessee averages better than 77 points a game while Auburn yields more than 77 points a game. The Tigers aren't going to be able to keep up offensively with their depleted backcourt situation. 

The ACC is the best basketball conference in the country again. It's also a conference where teams fiercely protect their home-court and take advantage of great situations. That brings Clemson clearly into focus in this matchup. 
The Tigers are 11-2 at home, 5-0 ATS versus ACC opponents. Their last five home games have been victories against Pittsburgh by 13 points, Miami by 11, Duke by 5, Louisville by 4 and Florida State by 9. Clemson has been on the road in its last three games where it went 1-2. Now the Tigers are back home. They draw Notre Dame, fresh off an 80-76 home victory against then No. 2 ranked North Carolina just two days ago. 
That was a magical and memorable game for the Irish as they came from 15 points down to upset the Tar Heels. The student body stormed the court in celebration following the victory. 
Now Notre Dame takes to the road having lost its past two away games, falling to Syracuse by 15 and Miami by 9. The Irish are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games versus foes with a winning record. They also are 2-7 ATS following a victory. Notre Dame's leading scorer, Demetrius Jackson, is just 11-for-42 from the floor in his last three games since returning from a hamstring injury and played the entire game against North Carolina. 
Clemson has covered eight of the past 10 times versus opponents with winning records. The Tigers also are on a 9-2 covering run.


 

Just last week the Pelicans were talking playoffs three games out of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Now New Orleans trails Utah by seven games for that final playoff seed having lost four in a row. Three of those defeats were to the Grizzlies, Spurs and Cavaliers, though.
Now the Pelicans step way down in class in a must-win spot against an opponent they have dominated. 
New Orleans has won the past six times against the Timberwolves, covering five of the six. The Pelicans defeated Minnesota, 114-99, in their previous meeting on Jan. 19. The Timberwolves couldn't handle Anthony Davis, who scored 35 points. 
Minnesota has one of the weakest home-courts in the NBA going 8-18 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have covered just 27 percent of their past 34 home contests. They are 8-21 ATS, too, versus foes with a losing record. 
The oddsmaker downgrades the Pelicans due to injuries to Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. Both are out. But point guard Norris Cole is off his finest game of the season, scoring 26 points in the Pelicans' last game. Cole has scored double-digits in all but one of his last nine games. Minnesota has injuries, too. The Timberwolves could be down Kevin Martin and big men Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Garnett. 

The Bulls are in stop-the-pain mode going 2-4 heading into this their final matchup of a seven-game road trip. Chicago has tumbled all the way to being the sixth-seed in the Eastern Conference. 
The Bulls are better than that. Yes, Jimmy Butler and Joakim Noah are out. But Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose are healthy and the Bulls have a talented reserve roster, which is made stronger with the return of Mike Dunleavy, who played his first game of the season this past Saturday.  
The Bulls are in desperation mode after blowing a lead to the Timberwolves in their last game, an embarrassing loss. There is no knock to the Hornets in this handicap. Charlotte finally is healthy except for Al Jefferson and has a strong home-court. The Hornets are 7-4 in their last 11 games. They are a decent team - but not strong enough to get away with laying this many points against this caliber of opponent, wounded or not.
I much prefer the Hornets when they are in an underdog role - not laying points. They are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times as chalk. 

The 76ers opened 1-30. They are not that team anymore. The 76ers are 7-13 in their last 20 games. It's not a coincidence the 76ers have picked up their game since veteran point guard Ish Smith joined the team. Philadelphia also has gotten healthier. That combination has made the 76ers semi-respectable, capable of springing upsets at home against a fat and happy opponent in a flat spot. 
Smith didn't play in the 76ers' last game, a 103-98 home win versus Brooklyn this past Saturday, because of a sprained ankle. The Nets were coming off their best game of the season when they lost to the 76ers. Smith is expected to play today. 
The 76ers catch the Clippers playing in their third road game in four days and without rest after a lackluster 100-93 victory against the Heat on Sunday. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS following a victory. They are thin in the backcourt having found out that Austin Rivers suffered a broken hand. The Clippers aren't immediately going to replace Rivers. The Clippers have a bigger game on deck against the Celtics on Wednesday. 
Western Conference teams have taken the 76ers for granted going just 4-13-1 ATS when playing Philadelphia. I see the Clippers falling into that same pattern in a game they are going to lack motivation. 

I see this as a venting, kill-spot for the Hoyas, who have lost three straight games. That means the Hoyas have to take St. John's seriously.

St. John's is terrible, worse than its spread record may indicate. Georgetown is the opposite - better than its record may show. The Hoyas have played a murderous schedule. Now they get a breather.The teams played Jan. 13 at Madison Square Garden. The Hoyas built a 28-point lead and ended up winning by 20 points. This one should be even easier at home.