I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris.  The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West.  Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony.  Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.  
 

Decimated by injuries, the Bulls have lost eight straight games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Minus Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn. Denzel Valentine and Luke Kornet the Bulls committed a season-worst 26 turnovers in a 112-104 home loss to the Suns on Saturday.  Zach LaVine is Chicago's only legitimate NBA starter.  The Wizards had some momentum going 5-2 in their last seven games before All-Star break. However, the Wizards' shooting was off and their rust showed on Friday in their first game back from break. They lost, 113-108, at home to the Cavaliers.  Washington should shoot better than the 38.7 percent it did against Cleveland. The Wizards have a better lineup and bench than the banged-up Bulls with their YMCA roster. The teams just met 12 days ago and the Wizards won, 126-114, as 3-point home favorites. 

It's taken nearly all season, but the Nuggets finally have gotten healthy. Short-term, though, that may not be such a huge plus as the team has to integrated again and role players have to readjust.  The Timberwolves are thin up front without Karl-Anthony Towns. But their morale is better with D'Angelo Russell on board and Andrew Wiggins gone. Former Nugget Malik Beasley has looked good for Minnesota since coming from Denver on Feb. 5. He knows his old team so his presence should be an added plus. The Nuggets are not good in this role going 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. The Timberwolves have lost the first three games of the series to Denver, but only by an average margin of six points. None of their defeats were by more than nine points.  

The Blackhawks are 2-7 in their last nine games and don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs. They take to the road fat and happy, though, after beating the Predators, 2-1, at home on Friday. Chicago is 6-21 the past 27 times when playing on one day's rest. Chicago draws an angry Dallas team coming off a 5-1 loss to the Blues. 

Wichita State is back on track after getting embarrassed at Houston winning three in a row by an average of 17.3 points. The Shockers rank 37th defensively and have held their last three opponents - Central Florida, Tulane and South Florida - to 58 points or fewer.  This is a big revenge spot for the Shockers and they now have their swagger and confidence restored. The Bearcats nipped Wichita State, 80-79, on Feb. 6 when Jarron Cumberland converted a three-point play with 3.5 seconds left. Cumberland is the Bearcats' best player, but is in a shooting slump making just 12 of 45 shots during his last four games.   Cincinnati has been winning, but not covering margins. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played four straight overtime games so they could have tired legs. 

Sunday Free Play

 Wisconsin minus 4 1/2 hosting Rutgers  Wisconsin is another one of those Big Ten teams that is much better at home. The timing works here to back the Badgers.  Rutgers is at low ebb. The Scarlet Knights are 2-4 this month. They also are a bit shell shocked having just lost for the first time in 18 games at home falling to Michigan, 60-52, this past Wednesday. Rutgers shot just 34.9 percent from the floor in that loss. The Badgers have held opponents below 40 percent from the field in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this season. Rutgers has lost its past five road/neutral court games. Like the Badgers, the Scarlet Knights are a far better home team.  Wisconsin has revenge motivation, too. Rutgers defeated the Badgers, 72-65, in Piscataway on Dec. 11. The Scarlet Knights took advantage of the Badgers not having Micah Potter, their leading rebounder, to outrebound Wisconsin, 40-26.  Rutgers has never swept a season series for Wisconsin. I don't see the Scarlet Knights putting a halt to that streak. 

The Kings are going with youth and playing a more wide open style. That was evident in their last game, a 5-4 home win against the Panthers on Thursday. LA has scored an average of four goals in its last 4 games. 

 LA, though, has given up 3 or more goals in 12 of its last 14 games. 
 Colorado is banged-up, but leads the NHL in goals per game with one of the top lines in hockey.  

Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad.  The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting. 

Weber State beat Southern Utah, 75-65, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog on Jan. 30. Southern Utah has lost three in a row, all on the road going 1-2 ATS.  Weber State has the best player on the court in guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 22.5 points.  The Wildcats are the better long-range shooting team and are home. They should not be underdogs. 

Subtract Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine and the Bulls are in the argument for worst team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA.  The battered Bulls have dropped seven in a row the latest come at home to the lowly Hornets, 103-93, two days ago.  Now comes the Suns, who are better than the Hornets. Analyzing this matchup I'll call Devin Booker versus Zach LaVine even. But the Suns hold talent edges at all the other spots especially with Deandre Ayton and Ricky Rubio. While the Bulls remain seriously undermanned, the Suns have gotten healthy with Dario Saric and Aron Baynes returning to the lineup.  The Suns do well in these spots covering 15 of the last 22 times on the road when meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Bulls have covered only 30 percent of their last 56 home games.

The Rangers haven't allowed more than 3 goals during their last nine games. The Sharks are down a lot of firepower with Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl and offensive-minded defenseman Erik Karlsson all out. 

 San Jose does posses the No. 1 penalty-killing unit in the NHL, though. 

Alabama-Birmingham holds foes to fewer than 65 points a game. Florida Atlantic is going to have trouble putting up points and holding its own on the glass against the Blazers. The Owls have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They are averaging just 60.7 points during this span. Only once in their last nine games have the Owls scored more than 69 points and that was against Marshall, which ranks 262nd defensively. 
 

Georgia State has held three of its last four opponents under 70 points. The Panthers rank 32nd in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and are first in the Sun Belt Conference in that category.  Texas State forces a lot of turnovers, which is a Georgia State weakness, and has been playing outstanding defense holding its last 12 opponents to fewer than 67 points.  The Bobcats should approach this matchup with extra intensity as they lost, 81-69, to Georgia State in the first meeting. That was back on Dec. 21. Texas State is far better defensively now than it was back then. 

UMass isn't a great scoring team, but till averages 12 more points per game than Fordham.  The Rams are one of the worst scoring teams in the nation averaging 57.1 points. They haven't reached 60 points in their last eight games. Fordham is averaging 52.2 points in its past five games. The Rams are 1-12 in their last 13 games. 

If you're going to play without rest the best time to do it is following a week long layoff. Memphis is 5-0 ATS the past five times when playing on the second of consecutive days and should even hold an edge on the Lakers because of it. The Grizzlies lost to the Kings on the road last night. The Grizzlies are adjusted to West Coast time now and should have the rust off. The Lakers, on the other hand, haven't played in nine days. The last time the Lakers played with more than five days rest was on Jan. 31 and they lost, 127-119, to the Trail Blazers as 13-point home favorites.  LA also has a marquee look-ahead matchup hosting the Celtics on national television Sunday.  The Grizzlies have been red-hot even with their loss to the Kings Thursday night winning 15 of their last 20 games, while going 14-6 ATS.

The Blackhawks are fade material as they look to rebuild and deal with trade rumors as the trade deadline nears. Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games. The Blackhawks have dropped their past three home games with the latest being, 6-3, to the Rangers two days ago. After this matchup, the Blackhawks face road games against the Stars, Blues and Lightning. So they know the playoffs are not going to be reached.  The Predators should be pumped as defenseman Ryan Ellis could make his return to the lineup. He's been out with a head injury. Nashville is 5-2 in its last seven road games. The Predators can take advantage of a Blackhawks defense that is giving up an average of 4.3 goals in their last six games and last-ranked power play unit that has failed to score in its last six games spanning 17 chances. 

Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor.  The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch.  The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line.  This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip.  Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations.  The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.

This line opened short. The Pacers are back on track after knocking off the Bucks in their final game before the All-Star break. TJ Warren may not play for Indiana, but the Pacers still hold a major talent edge with a now-healthy Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. The Pacers won't lack motivation as they are in revenge mode for a 92-85 home loss suffered to the Knicks on Feb. 1 when they weren't playing well. Indiana has covered in seven of its past nine away matchups.  The Knicks are in total rebuild mode and team chemistry was shaken when word leaked that interim coach Mike Miller isn't going to be back even though Miller has been a huge improvement on David Fizdale. 
 

This is the largest total of the season for Detroit and I don't see it. If you discount an 86-point performance versus Wright State, the Titans are averaging 67.4 points in their last five games. The Titans have been playing better defense, too, giving up 77 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.  Green Bay can be erratic with its scoring. Just two games ago, the Phoenix scored only 58 points on the road against Illinois-Chicago.  There were 163 points scored in the first meeting with Green Bay nipping Detroit, 83-80, on Jan. 18. The teams combined to make 34 of 42 free throws for 81 percent. Both are excellent shooting free throw shooting teams, but not that good. 

Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month.  Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
 

Perhaps you think the Bulls are better than Charlotte? They aren't. Chicago is 19-36. Charlotte is 18-36. The Hornets are 2-1 versus the Bulls this season with their lone defeat coming by one point. Charlotte covered all three games versus the Bulls and is on a five-game ATS run against Chicago going back to last season.  The Bulls would be superior to the Hornets if they were fully healthy. That's not the case, though.  Center Wendell Carter Jr. is the only key injured Bull set to return today. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Kris Dunn all remain sidelined. Take away those players and Charlotte has the better roster. Zach LaVine gives Chicago the best player on the court. After that, however, the Hornets have Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington and emerging star Devonte' Graham, who is quietly averaging 18.1 points and 7.8 assists per game. Carter last played on Jan. 6 so he figures to be rusty and could be on a minutes restriction. Note the Bulls held LaVine to 4-of-19 shooting from the floor when the teams last played with Charlotte winning, 83-73, on Dec. 13 in Chicago.  Charlotte comes out of the break having posted consecutive road victories against the Pistons and Timberwolves. Graham is playing his best ball of the season.  The Bulls, on the other hand, have dropped six in a row. Among these losses were by 15 points to the Nets and by 12 points to the Wizards. Chicago isn't a strong home team especially versus weaker foes where they are 9-24 ATS the past 33 times hosting sub .500 opponents. 
  

The Jets got better and the Senators got worse with Winnipeg picking up defenseman Dylan DeMelo from Ottawa. The trade happened just two days ago. DeMelo is eager to make an impact against his old team and the timing is right. 

 Winnipeg has been strong as a road favorite winning 23 of the last 34 times in that role. Ottawa is 4-11 in its last 15 home contests. The Senators have given up at least three goals in seven of their last eight games.

Washington State is a mediocre Pac-12 team. But that's good enough to cover this margin at home against California, which is 0-10 on the road.  The Golden Bears have lost four in a row and lack the size and talent to take advantage of Washington State inside.  The Cougars are 11-3 at home, including going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games. They have been up-and-down but own victories against UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State.  I like the Cougars to cover this spread even if guard Issac Bonton has to miss a second straight game with a leg injury. He missed the Cougars' last game this past Saturday. Washington State lost 70-51 to USC in that matchup. That game, though, was at USC and Bonton's freshmen replacements will be better prepared if called upon.  The Cougars still have CJ Elleby, who is averaging 18.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, to give them the best player on the court. 

You have to go back to 2012 to find the last time Arizona won in Dallas. The Coyotes are 1-9-1 in their past 11 games against the Stars, including losing 4-2 at home on Dec. 29. I don't see that pattern changing in this matchup.  The Coyotes go to Dallas fat and happy riding a two-game winning streak with home victories against the Capitals and 2-1 over the Islanders this past Monday.  The Stars are 6-1-2 this month, but coming off a 4-3 road loss to the Senators from Sunday. That was Dallas' fourth game in six days. The Stars are home now and have had two days to rest up following that defeat. 
  Wednesday Free Play  Rangers plus $1.17 at Blackhawks Face it Chicago it's not going to happen. The Blackhawks aren't going to make the playoffs. Not after going 1-6 in their last seven games.  The Blackhawks return home for the first time in two weeks. They are 0-2 in their previous two home games. Chicago hosts the Predators after this matchup followed by road matchups against the Stars, Blues and Lightning. So deep down inside if they are being honest, the Blackhawks have to realize that their just completed 1-4 road swing just about destroyed their forlorn playoff hopes.  The Rangers are in desperate need of a victory here, too, as they are outside the playoff picture. Unlike the Blackhawks, though, the Rangers have shown life winning four of their last five games. The lone loss came to the hot Bruins, 3-1, at home this past Sunday.  This gives the Rangers amble time to regroup. New York has won its last five road games. The Rangers have been getting outstanding goalie play from Igor Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev. Those two have made Henrik Lundqvist almost an afterthought.  The Rangers are giving up just 1.8 goals in their last five games. Only once in their last 10 games have they surrendered more than three goals. The Blackhawks rank last in the NHL in power play percentage. They were 0-for-14 in their power play opportunities during their just conclued five-game road trip.  Chicago is allowing an average of four goals per game during their last five contests. 
  

Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home.  Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season.  The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games. 

If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games.  The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers.   New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January.  The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25.  The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight. 

Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome.  The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points.  That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks.  Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too.  The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday. 

It doesn't happen that often, but when it does you have to strongly consider Washington. The Capitals are a road 'dog to Las Vegas. Washington has won nine of the last 11 times (82 percent) it has been a 'dog.

 Las Vegas has been playing better, but the Capitals have had the Golden Knights' number winning six of the past seven meetings.  Washington also is the top road team in the NHL. The Capitals are 19-7 in their last 26 road contests.  Note this is a mid-afternoon Vegas time start. That favors the East Coast Capitals and is a negative for the West Coast Golden Knights, who usually play their home games at night. 

Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings.  I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes.  The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4. 

I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats.  The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside. 

The Islanders have scored 3 or more goals in six of their last eight games. They also have yielded 3 or more goals in each of their last seven games. If you discount a shutout loss to the Wild two games ago, the Golden Knights have scored 18 goals in their last three games. However, Las Vegas is giving up 4.2 goals per game in its last five games.  The Over has cashed in seven of Las Vegas' last eight home contests. 

Chicago State is one of the worst offensive teams in the country ranking 338th averaging 62.4 points. Only once in its last six games has Chicago State scored more than 54 points. The Cougars have played seven straight Under games.  Grand Canyon averages 70 points a game. Chicago State's defense has improved slightly giving up an average of 69.7 points the past four games.  This doesn't shape up to be a close game so Grand Canyon's reserves should be seeing more playing time. 

George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points.  George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
 

I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast.  West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.

Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game.  Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak.  The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood. 

Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points.  This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs. 

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are both hot. Crosby has scored 14 points in his last 10 games, while Malkin has notched at least one point in five straight games. The Penguins' offense is better, too, now that they acquired Jason Zucker. The Penguins can take advantage of Montreal being without its best defenseman with Shea Weber out with an ankle injury.  The Penguins were held to one goal by Tampa Bay on Thursday. Prior to that, though, the Penguins had scored 15 goals in their last three home games.  Montreal is getting to the desperate point. I don't see the Canadiens playing a conservative game here when they've managed just five goals in their last three games. Before that, Montreal had averaged 3.6 goals in its last five games. 

I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.  Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense.  The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up. 
 

Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times.  California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State.  Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game.  The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats. 
 

Both the Clippers and Celtics are off bad losses. It's the Clippers who I want in this spot. No team has been better following a defeat. LA is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS off a loss.  The Celtics have plenty of stars. But it's the Clippers who have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is having another brilliant season and is one of the hottest players in the NBA scoring 30 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games.  Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics due to a calf injury. The Clippers have beaten Boston four straight times, including 107-104 at home on Nov. 20.
 

I'm going Under this total based on the injury report.  Edmonton is minus superstar Connor McDavid. Tampa Bay will be without Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli.  The Oilers scored five goals in their first game without McDavid. That was against the Blackhawks, though. Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest goals in the NHL.  Look for the pace to slow down with McDavid out.  Kucherov and Stamkos are the Lightning's two leading goal scorers. 

Calgary has scored 12 goals in its last two games. The Flames know they have to win with a fast-paced style because they are down two key defensemen with Mark Giordano and Travis Hamonic both out.  The Kings have been held to just seven goals in their last five games, all losses. LA is trying to pick up more offense by going with youth and faster skaters. The Kings have fared well offensively against Calgary this season scoring 11 goals in three games. 

Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game.  The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season. 

Portland has stepped up recently going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, while defeating the Pacers, Rockets, Lakers, Jazz and Heat during this stretch. But the Trail Blazers couldn't keep it up against much-improved New Orleans on Tuesday, losing 138-117 on the road.  That defeat dropped the Trail Blazers 2 1/2 games in back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So even though the Trail Blazers carry a huge fatigue rating - this is their fifth game in seven days - I'm expecting an all-out effort from a prideful bunch. This is close to a must-win spot for the Trail Blazers and they will be idle for the next nine days following this game.  The Grizzlies are playing well, but are flirting with danger shooting just 23.8 percent from 3-point range during their last five games. 

These teams met on Jan. 22 and Furman won, 101-78, despite shooting just 13 free throws. The Paladins putting up 101 points shouldn't have been that shocking. They average 78 points, have the 13th-best shooting percentage in the country and Samford is a horrendous defense team giving up more than 80 points per game. I don't see much difference in this rematch. The Paladins have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games.  The Bulldogs score at a 74-point per game clip. Their terrible defense has surrendered at least 78 points in eight of their last nine games. During this span, Samford has permitted 88 or more points six times. 
 

This series has a powerful Over bias with 10 of the last 11 played between these two teams going above the total. Look for that trend to continue here. The Flyers have gone Over in seven of their last eight road contests, while the Islanders have gone Over during each of their past four home games.  Philadelphia has notched at least three goals in seven of its last eight games, while the Islanders have given up three or more goals in each of their last five games.  The Islanders have scored at least three goals in five of their past six games.

Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter.  Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier.  The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday.  The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington. 

Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total.  Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game.  Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record.  The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
 

Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game.   Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas. 

The Capitals have gone Over the total in 72 percent of their last 32 home games. They are the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL and have tallied three or more goals in seven of their past eight games. Alex Ovechkin is hot producing 16 goals in his last 11 games.  The Islanders have scored at least three goals in four of their last five games. 
 

The Magic finished 20-9 to make the playoffs last season. They are going to need a similar kick to achieve that this season being nine games below .500. The Magic need to start immediately and this matchup sets up for them. Orlando has had a day rest and is stepping way down in class after losing 111-95 to the Bucks at home on Saturday. Now the Magic go from playing the best team in the league to one of the two worst teams in the NBA. Orlando has covered seven of the last nine times versus sub .500 opponents.  The Hawks rallied from eight points down in the final 90 seconds of the first overtime to defeat the Knicks, 140-135, in double overtime at home on Sunday. That was just Atlanta's 14th win in 53 games. The Hawks went all out in beating the Knicks as four players logged at least 47 minutes with big man John Collins going 49 minutes.  Now the Hawks take to the road where they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Atlanta remains thin up front as recent acquistion Clint Capela won't play due to a heel injury. Besides the urgency of needing to beat the Hawks, the Magic won't be taking Atlanta lightly either as they are 0-2 against them this season.  

The Clippers buried the Cavaliers, 128-103, when they hosted them on Jan. 14. I doubt the Clippers win by 25 points again, but I do believe they beat the hapless Cavaliers by double-digits even if Kawhi Leonard sits out this game.

 Cleveland has lost 12 of its past 13 games, including the last five. The Cavaliers did pick up Andre Drummond. He could make his Cleveland debut here. It's going to take time, though, for the Cavaliers to adjust to Drummond, who is a better fantasy player than an NBA player.  The Clippers should be in an angry mood after being humiliated, 142-115, by the Timberwolves on the road last night. The Clippers have a strong history of responding well following a loss. They are 23-7 ATS in that role and 7-1 ATS the past eight times after losing by double-digits.  Cleveland has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests. 
 

If the Grizzlies are serious about holding on to the last playoff spot in the Western Conference they need to win a road game such as this. Memphis has covered the last five times it has been favored.  The Grizzlies had won six of seven before losing, 119-107, to the 76ers on the road this past Friday. No shame in that as Philadelphia is a dominant 23-2 at home.  Now Memphis steps way down in class. The Wizards are a little fat and happy, too, after shading the Mavericks, 119-118, at home on Friday when Bradley Beal made a layup with 0.2 seconds left. Washington is 3-7 ATS the last 10 times following a victory.   The Wizards rank last in the league in defense. The Grizzlies took advantage of the Wizards' porous defense to win, 128-111, in the first meeting on Dec. 14. It was the fourth time in the last five meetings the Grizzlies have covered against Washington.

The spot sets up well for Buffalo and the price is fair. The Sabres are 15-9-4 at home. They draw the Ducks playing their fourth road game in six days. Anaheim exerted a lot of energy in coming from a 3-1 deficit to force overtime against the Maple Leafs two days ago before losing.  The Ducks have lost 38 of their last 55 road contests. They have been on the road this entire month. The Ducks will return to Southern California following this game so both concentration and tired legs could be issues for them.  Anaheim also is likely to be without key defenseman Erik Gudbranson, who suffered an arm injury against the Maple Leafs.  The Sabres are not going to lack motivation. They have revenge for a 5-2 road loss to the Ducks from October and were embarrassed in their last home game losing to the lowly Red Wings.  Defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is back for Buffalo and Carter Hutton has been solid in net. 
 

Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot.  Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.

Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role.  Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that.  The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage.  The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.

Even though Dallas won't have injured Luka Doncic and are playing without rest, they still should beat the Hornets by more than this point spread. Charlotte has turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 games with the lone victory during this span coming against the Knicks at home. The Hornets really have problems stepping up in class. They are 4-12 ATS the past 16 times when meeting above .500 opponents. Dallas is coming off a tough 119-118 road defeat to the Wizards last night. The Mavericks didn't play well and were knocked off on a buzzer-beating layup by Bradley Beal. Dallas not only has incentive to bounce back, but also strong revenge motivation, too. Charlotte stunned the Mavericks, 123-120, in overtime as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs during the first meeting.  The Mavericks are very strong in this role going 12-3-1 ATS as road chalk.  The Hornets could be missing several of their rotation players. Cody Martin is in concussion protocol and veteran forward Marvin Williams is expected to sign with another team possibly the Bucks. 

North Texas is averaging 78.8 points in its last five games. The Mean Green lead Conference USA in offensive efficiency. They are taking on an Alabama-Birmingham team that just allowed 86 points to Rice. UAB, though, can take advantage of this home scheduling spot to catch a North Texas defense that isn't in good form allowing an average of 77 points in its past two games.

Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games.  Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight. 

Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13.  OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why.  The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat.  I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst.  The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times. 

You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points.  This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times. 

Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday.  Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
 

I see value with the Canucks, who have won 7 of their last 10 games and are 10-1 during their past 11 Western Conference games.  The Wild care a bit fat and happy after nipping the Blackhawks, 3-2 in overtime, two days ago. The Canucks are the more hungry team with losses in their last two games.  Vancouver has beaten the Wild four of the last five times in Minnesota. 

Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines.  The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season.  New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.  The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home.  The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108. 
 

Yes, current form is important. But this is trumped by situation when it comes to the long grind-out season of the NBA. The Jazz have that key element going here along with a powerful home history against the Nuggets. Utah has lost four in a row. The Jazz also haven't played in four days. They are going to be ready for this matchup especially after losing six days ago to the Nuggets, 106-100, on the road. The Jazz played at San Antonio the previous night before losing to the Nuggets. Utah still might have beaten Denver if star guard Donovan Mitchell would have had just a normal game. Instead, Mitchell had one of his worst games of the season missing 11 of 12 shots from the field.  This time around it's the Nuggets who are without rest facing a revenge-minded, ravenous Jazz squad. Denver is coming off an impressive, 127-99, home win against the Trail Blazers Tuesday night.  Jamal Muray returned from injury for Denver aginst the Trail Blazers. However, forward Jerami Grant suffered an ankle injury. Denver already is without big men Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. Michael Porter could be out, too, severely restricting Denver's frontcourt depth. Grant, Millsap and Plumlee are Denver's best interior defenders. Rudy Gobert should be able to dominate inside while an obviously highly motivated Mitchell should produce big in the backcourt.  Denver is 4-11 ATS following a victory and 3-7 ATS when playing without rest. The Nuggets also have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 visits to Salt Lake City losing on the road to the Jazz the past nine times. 

Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge.  The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road.  Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines. 

It has come. No more 6 1/2 with added juice to the Over. The oddsmaker has put out 7 as the opening total in this Maple Leafs-Rangers matchup. Given the goaltending situations and top-10 offenses that total is justified.  But that doesn't mean there will be that many goals scored.  Toronto and New York are each off 5-3 home losses from Monday. Both teams have goalie issues.  The Maple Leafs are going with backup Michael Hutchinson after starting netminder Frederik Andersen was hurt on Monday. Hutchinson was caught unprepared and gave up three goals in 13 shots after replacing Andersen. Hutchinson, however, had performed surprisingly well in his past four starts giving up six goals on 116 shots during this time frame. I expect the Maple Leafs to dial back their free-wheeling offense to provide more two-way checking and a defensive mindset to protect Hutchinson.  The Rangers have a three-headed goalie situation. The worst one is Henrik Lundqvist, who turns 38 next month and is well past his prime. The Rangers aren't going to go with him against the Maple Leafs instead opting for rookie Igor Shesterkin.  New York has managed just five goals at even strength during its last six games. So I don't see the Rangers wanting to engage in a high speed skating exhibition against the Maple Leafs. They can dictate a slower tempo especially being the home team.  
 

The Oilers have scored three or more goals in nine consecutive games. The Coyotes have allowed at least three goals in their last nine games. Connor McDavid is hot producing 15 points during these past nine games. Edmonton is averaging 5.5 goals in its past four games. The Coyotes should have fresh legs having been idle the last two days. The Over has cashed in 11 of their last 15 home games. There were 10 goals scored when the teams last met on Jan. 18 in Alberta with the Oilers, winning 7-3.

The Hornets just lost lost 112-100 at home to Orlando for their 11th loss in 12 games. So why get involved with them here besides the obvious taking a generous amount of points? The Hornets outrebounded the Magic by nine and outplayed them in the paint. Orlando's strength is its frontcourt. The Magic won, though, because they uncharacteristically buried 16 of 34 shots from 3-point range. The Magic are 29th in scoring and 28th in 3-point field goal percentage. Charlotte is slightly below average in 3-point defense ranking 19th.  Charlotte has covered the past five times following a double-digit home loss. The Hornets also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest.  The other side of this equation is Houston. The Rockets are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. They just beat the Mavericks and Pelicans at home. The Mavericks were minus Luka Doncic and the Pelicans got caught peeking ahead to their nationally televised matchup against the Bucks today while adjusting to how to play basketball with Zion Williamson. After this matchup, the Rockets meet the Lakers in LA on Thursday in a nationally televised game. So this matchup isn't a high priority for Houston.  The Rockets aren't expected to have big man Clint Capela nor Russell Westbrook, who hurt his thumb against the Pelicans on Sunday. So Houston likely will be without two of its three best players. The Rockets figure to play small ball again going without anyone taller than 6-foot-6. The Rockets did that against the Mavericks and Pelicans and got away with it despite getting outrebounded by a combined 35 boards in those two games. Charlotte has several unsung, lunch-pail type big men who are adept rebounders. They can help keep the Hornets within this large point spread. 
  

No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor.  But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do.  Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points.  The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet.  The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game. 

The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them.  I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot  is favorable as it is here.   Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player.  The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip.  Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win. 
 

Toronto is going for its eighth straight home win against Florida. I think the Maple Leafs will get it. So does the oddsmaker making the Maple Leafs such a heavy favorite. But I also believe this is a kill spot for the Maple Leafs so I'm turning the juice around from heavy minus to a solid plus price by laying a goal and a half on the puck line. The Maple Leafs are 3-0 coming out of All-Star break. They are playing extremely well and in a big revenge spot. The Panthers embarrassed the Maple Leafs, 8-4, in Florida three weeks ago.  This time around the Maple Leafs draw the Panthers playing for just the second time since Jan. 21. Florida has played only once since break losing, 4-0, on the road to the Canadiens this past Saturday.  Florida could also be without its second-leading scorer, center Aleksander Barkov. He suffered a lower-body injury against Montreal.

San Francisco has the superior defense. Kansas City has the superior quarterback. So, which way to go in this Super Bowl? The choice is simple for me: Patrick Mahomes. There's no reason to wait. I'm firing on the Chiefs because of Mahomes, the 49ers' lack of a passing attack and KC's vastly improved defense.  Mahomes' numbers the past two seasons spanning 34 regular season and playoff games is mind boggling - 10,316 passing yards, an 84-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five rushing TD's. These numbers include a 3-1 postseason mark with nine TD's and no interceptions. Kansas City is averaging 37 points in four playoff games the past two seasons.  Kansas City has won eight games in a row - all by seven points or more. The Chiefs' average margin of victory during their last eight games is 16.1 points. I respect San Francisco's defense especially now that it is fully healthy again. But in this day and age where rules are out-of-whack skewed to favor offenses - particularly passing offenses - a once-in-a-generation quarterback trumps a strong defense.  The best quarterbacks the 49ers have seen this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. I don't include Aaron Rodgers, who had a down year and appears past his prime. In those games, the Saints produced 46 points, the Falcons scored 29 in pulling an upset and the Seahawks came within inches of sweeping the 49ers.  I would take the Chiefs' offense ahead of those offenses. It's not just Mahomes versus Jimmy Garoppolo, a game-manager type who is far less crafty and commits more turnovers than Mahomes. Kansas City also has a huge wide receiving edge with speedsters Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. I would take Hill and Watkins over any of the 49ers' wideouts. Travis Kelce is just as good if not better than George Kittle, who is Garoppolo's major receiving weapon and security blanket. Kittle is great. But so is Kelce.  No defense has been able to stop Mahomes and Co. The reason for this is because it's impossible. Mahomes is too talented, has too many weapons, gets solid pass protection and the rules are in his favor. An added bonus is Andy Reid off a bye. His record is tremendous in this spot.  I don't see the 49ers keep pacing. Kansas City's defense is much improved from last year and the beginning of this season. The Chiefs held their last six regular-season foes to fewer than 12 points a game. KC's run defense would have ranked in the top-10 if based on just the last six games of the season. Just once in their last eight games have the Chiefs allowed an opposing running back to rush for more than 70 yards. They held Derrick Henry to 69 yards and a 3.6 yard average in the AFC title game. Raheem Mostert is a great success story, but he's no Derrick Henry.  The Chiefs' pass rush is better, too, with Chris Jones returning from injury and veteran Terrell Suggs coming on board. Suggs is in the top 10 in all-time sacks. The worst case scenario for the Chiefs is falling behind by double-digits. They did that in both of their playoff games this season. It didn't make a difference. The Chiefs still beat the Texans and Titans by 20 and 11 points, respectively. But if the 49ers fall behind by double-digits they are dead because Garoppolo doesn't have the skill set, nor receiving weapons to come back. 
  

The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. They have actually played better on the road than at home. Devin Booker has All-Star numbers. He should have been selected to be an All-Star. But all of this is trumped by the Bucks being the best team in basketball, being home and in an angry mood following a surprising, 127-115, home defeat to the road-weary Nuggets this past Friday.  That was just the Bucks' third home loss of the season in 25 games at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 25-9 (74%) ATS following a defeat.  So no disrespect to the Suns, but I want the Bucks going for me in this spot. 

Forget the 14-1 record from Dec. 26-Jan. 25. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row with the latter coming in back-to-back road settings against the Spurs and Nuggets.  Now the Jazz have had a day to regroup and they gain a scheduling edge. They draw the Trail Blazers, who just won an emotional road game Friday night against the Lakers in the backdrop of Kobe Bryant's untimely death.  This is just the second time since Dec. 21 Portland is playing without rest. The last time was Jan. 18 and the Trail Blazers lost, 119-106, at the Thunder.  The Trail Blazers have surrendered their once lofty home-court edge. They are 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests.  The Jazz are a top-four Western Conference team. The Trail Blazers have been a major disappointment and wouldn't be in the postseason if the regular season ended this weekend.  The Trail Blazers are traveling back home saturated after last night's huge victory, Utah should be fully focused to end its losing streak knowing they won't be in action for another four days following this game. 
  

The Bruins have scored three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. They draw the Wild playing their first game since Jan. 22. The Over has been golden in spots like this where a team was coming off a long layout. The tempo is usually fast in these cases, the defense spotty and the goaltending rusty.  The Wild entered break in a good scoring groove averaging 4.2 goals per game in their last five games. The Bruins are likely to go with backup goalie Jaroslav Halak, while Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk has a 3.69 GAA against Boston.  
 

This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups.  The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday.  Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers. 

The Golden Knights have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NHL this season. I expect the Golden Knights, though, to make a move having made a coaching change to Peter DeBoer.  Neither Las Vegas nor Carolina has played since All-Star break. Both have been idle for 10 days. That rustiness puts more of a random element into this matchup and is a plus for the underdog. The extra time also has given DeBoer more of a chance to implement his coaching and style into the Golden Knights,  

The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits.

 So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest.  The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here.  The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. 
 

Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances.  The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites.  Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here.  UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28. 
 

The Canadiens are expected to get back Brendan Gallagher, their second-leading scorer, from injury. The Sabres are minus their No. 1 goalie, Linus Ullmark. His likely replacement is Carter Hutton, who has allowed an average of 5.6 goals in his last three games. The Canadiens fell to the Capitals, 4-2, on Monday. Prior to that loss, though, Montreal had won of four of five. Montreal also has won its last two road games.
 

Look for Tampa Bay to beat the Kings for an eighth straight time - and in a big way, too. The Lightning came out of All-Star break not looking good in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Stars on Monday. They will look to take their frustrations out on a rusty Kings squad that hasn't played in 11 days and is 1-6-1 in their last eight games.  The Kings don't have much of a home ice edge and the mood figures to be somber in LA so soon after the death of Kobe Bryant.  Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a strong January with a .955 save percentage. 
  

I want Bradley going for me off a loss and being home against a bad road team in Valparaiso.  The Braves are 11-1 at home this season and 10-1 ATS off a loss. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Bradley also has covered 72 percent of the past 37 times when playing at home against an opponent with a less than .400 road winning percentage.  

The Blues played Monday following the long All-Star break. St. Louis lost to Vancouver, 3-1. The Blues, though, fired 37 shots on net. They entered that matchup having scored 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 13 games.  The Flames are home, but at a disadvantage. It has been 10 days since Calgary last played. The Flames are sure to be rusty while the Blues are not. St. Louis is 6-1, too, the last seven times when playing without rest.  The Blues also have defeated the Flames in four of the last five games, including blanking them, 5-0, at home on Nov. 21 when the teams last met.
 

If there is one team the Hornets can beat it's the Knicks especially on extra rest and being home.  Charlotte has not played since Friday when it fell to the Bucks in Paris. The Hornets are desperate to end an eight-game losing streak.  The Knicks remain short-handed in their backcourt and are a bit smug after beating their cross-state rivals the Nets on Sunday. Before defeating the Cavaliers in their last road game, the Knicks had lost three consecutive away matchups by an average of 26.6 points. 

The teams met just three games ago and Flordia State won, 54-50. Both teams shot terrible from long-range - a combined 11-for-37 from 3-point territory - and there were only a combined 16 free throws attempted with just 11 made.   Yes these are outstanding defensive teams and this is going to be a slow-paced game. But this total is very low reflecting that and the teams are due to shoot better. Florida State has scored 78 or more points in four of its last five games. Also overtime is a stronger possibility than normal with the game lined in the pick range.  

Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail.  The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss.  Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.  

The Maple Leafs have a winning road record. They've won five of their last six away games and are expected to get back Auston Matthews, who is tied for second in the NHL in goals scored and gives Toronto a huge spark.  Nashville is not a strong home ice team. The Predators have lost 11 of their past 16 home contests.  Predators goalie Pekka Rinne has a losing record in his last 20 appearances. He hasn't been in good form. 
 

It's not a misprint. If the season ended today, the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. Memphis has come on winning eight of its last 10 games, going 7-3 ATS, to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference.  Phoenix is much improved, too. But the Grizzlies are the better team with more balanced scoring and prime rookie of the year candidate Ja Morant trumping Ricky Rubio at point guard. Morant is averaging 17.4 points and 7.1 assists. Sparked by Morant, the Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league this month.  Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 15 of its last 16 games. Phoenix ranks 20th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Suns enter this matchup a bit fat and happy having defeated the Spurs this past Friday in San Antonio. It was the Suns' first win there in seven years.  The Suns beat the Grizzlies on Nov. 2. Memphis has improved a great deal since then beating the Suns, 115-108, on Dec. 11 and 121-114 on Jan. 5. Both of those victories came at Phoenix. 

UNLV has turned around its season winning six in a row. The Rebels are strong on the offensive glass ranking sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. This could be a serious problem for San Diego State, whose rotation is missing Nathan Mensah and possibly Aguek Arop.  The Aztecs are 20-0. But their strong defense will be tested in this tough road setting as UNLV has the most efficient offense in the Mountain West Conference. 

Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread.  Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
 

Utah is the hottest team in the NBA winning 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz's last three victories have been by an average of 28.3 points.  Dallas is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this is a tough road spot for the Mavericks. The Jazz have been idle since Wednesday, while the Mavericks played on Thursday and earlier this week lost underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with an Achilles injury.  The Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Thursday in their first game without Powell. I don't see them doing that to the Jazz, who can exploit the injury with Rudy Gobert playing at such a high level.  The Jazz have covered their last seven home games and are 13-3 ATS the past 16 times laying points. 

Indiana State is one of those great at home teams - 7-0 - bad on the road, where it is 1-6.  Bradley is dealing with injuries to key players and has to deal with the Sycamores long range shooting as they lead the Missouri Valley Conference in 3-point shooting percentage. 

It doesn't matter than Karl Anthony-Towns is back. The Timberwolves remain terrible. They have lost seven in a row. Minnesota has been terrible at home all season winning just six of 21 times at Target Center. The Timberwolves have covered only 32 percent of their past 26 games. The buy sign is back on Houston after the Rockets beat the Nuggets, 121-105, at home two days ago. The Rockets play at Denver, Utah and Portland in their next three games. So they don't want to open this road trip with a loss to the worst team. 

The Raptors are healthy again and dangerous. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol are all back on the court. Toronto has gone off on a five-game winning streak covering four of those games. Toronto's average winning margin during its win streak is 16.2 points. The Raptors buried the Knicks, 126-98, when they last met on Nov. 27.  The Knicks are short-handed minus RJ Barrett and are 2-9 in their last 11 games. New York has surrendered 117 or more points in eight of their last 11 games. 
 

These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak.  I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV.  Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass. 
 

Home-court advantage, line value and rapid revenge all put me on the Trail Blazers.  Dallas and Portland have essentially traded places. The Mavericks have become a solid playoff team, while the Trail Blazers are now a lottery club. I accept that, but do believe Dallas is due for a regression - especially losing underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon - and Portland is due for an uptick.  The Trail Blazers shouldn't lack incentive having lost, 120-112, on the road to the Mavericks six days ago. Portland has beaten the Mavericks each of the last three times it has hosted them. Kristaps Porzingis looked extremely rusty on Tuesday in his first game back from missing eight games with a knee injury. This will be his second game since the injury.  Luka Doncic is a great guard. But so is prideful Damian Lillard, who won't want Doncic to show up his team at home. 

Both Washington and Utah need to get untracked. So I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup.  The Huskies rank in the top-40 in scoring defense and are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Huskies have one of the more difficult zone matchup defenses in the country for opponents to solve and Utah has scored much better when going against defenses that primarily play man-to-man. The Huskies held Utah to an average of 49 points in two games last season.  Utah's defense hasn't looked good the last three games. But Washington's offense isn't good. The Huskies are averaging just 56 points during regulation in their last four games. Washington has slowed down its offense minus team assists leader Quade Green, who was ruled academically ineligible for the winter semester.  

This is a true stop-the-pain game for the Rockets. They have lost four in a row with the latest being a 112-107 home loss to the Thunder on Monday. James Harden missed 16 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Harden is shooting 18 percent from the floor during this losing skid. Harden and the Rockets are overdue to perform much better. This spot sets up for them.  The Nuggets have beaten up five patsies in going 6-2 in their last eight games. Denver, though, is missing three starters - Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. This marks the Nuggets' third game in four days. The Nuggets have a terrible history in Houston losing the past seven times there. The teams meet again four days later in Denver. Houston hosted Denver on Dec. 31 and won, 130-104. That was the Rockets' 11th victory in the past 13 meetings versus Denver. 

I'm surprised to see the total open this short. The Jets are giving up an average of 5.3 goals per game during their last three games. The Blue Jackets are averaging 3.2 goals in their last five games. The Jets are expected to start backup goalie Laurent Brossoit. He doesn't have a good history versus Columbus with a 3.87 GAA and .863 save percentage.  Winnipeg isn't playing well. But the Jets don't lack firepower with Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler. Note, too, that the Over has cashed seven of the last eight times these teams have met.