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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-21-21	Avalanche v. Kings OVER 5.5		2-4	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Colorado has poured in 11 goals in its last two games. The Kings have given up three goals in regulation in all three of their games. LA doesn't have the speed to keep up with the Avalanche and lacks the skills to slow down Colorado without committing penalties. The Kings are averaging the most minor penalties in the league with a 5.3 average. The Avalanche could have the top power play unit in hockey with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. They've scored eight goals in 17 power play attempts this season.
01-21-21	Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado		76-78	Loss	-104	16 h 22 m	Show
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests.
01-21-21	Montana v. CS Sacramento OVER 119.5		78-66	Win	100	16 h 51 m	Show
The Big Sky is an offensive-minded conference. Montana and Sacramento State are the exceptions. These two teams are about defense. But the oddsmaker has set this total too low. It's the lowest total of the season by far for Montana and also the lowest Over/Under for Sacramento State. The Grizzlies have reached at least 62 points in nine of their 12 games. They've allowed at least 62 in eight of those contests. Sacramento State has a solid scoring threat in Ethan Esposito, who averages 16.9 points while hitting 51.2 percent of his shots. If you toss out a 65-43 loss to St. Mary's, the Hornets are averaging 77 points on the season.
01-21-21	Flyers v. Bruins -130	Top	4-5	Win	100	12 h 29 m	Show
Their defense has been there for the Bruins despite losing two of their first three games. Boston has permitted only five goals in three games. The Bruins very well could be 3-0 and we'd be seeing a much higher price. Boston was nipped, 2-1 in overtime, by the host Devils and fell 1-0 to the Islanders on the road in which they outshot New York, 27-17, during their past two games. I don't see Boston losing a third game in a row especially now that it gets to play its first home game. The Bruins' offense will come around even without injured David Pastrnak. I believe that happens here. Flyers goalie Carter Hart is off to a slow start with a 3.66 goals against average. The Flyers are short-handed on the blue line, too. Philadelphia went 1-1 in its last two games both against the Sabres. Buffalo outshot Philadelphia, 77-52, in those two games.
01-21-21	Devils v. Islanders UNDER 5.5		1-4	Win	100	12 h 23 m	Show
The Islanders have been idle since Monday. The Islanders will use that energy for defense and checking because that is their makeup. It's only been three games, but the Islanders have shown their consistency. They've scored five goals in three games and given up five goals in three games. There hasn't been more than five goals total scored during each of their first three games with all three games going Under. Both teams have hot goalies. Semyon Varlamov has shutouts in his two starts, while the Devils' Mackenzie Blackwood has a 1.90 goals against average with 109 stops on 115 shots. New Jersey has allowed just seven goals in its three games.
01-21-21	Wichita State +3 v. Memphis		52-72	Loss	-103	15 h 48 m	Show
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage.
01-21-21	San Jose State v. New Mexico -6		51-67	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans.
01-20-21	Canadiens -116 v. Canucks		5-6	Loss	-116	18 h 56 m	Show
The Canadiens have gotten bigger this season on defense - and more aggressive. Montreal's early defensive improvement looks like it's for real after the Canadiens held Edmonton to two goals in two games. Montreal outhit the Oilers, 31-17, in its 3-1 road victory on Monday. If it weren't for blowing a two-goal lead to the Maple Leafs in their opening game, the Canadiens would be 3-0. Montreal has won its last four games on the road against Vancouver. The Canucks aren't playing well. Vancouver has lost three in a row, outscored, 13-4, during this span. The Canucks' young, talented scorers are slumping and their special teams have been atrocious giving up seven power-play goals in 21 times behind shorthanded while failing to score when they've had the man advantage this season.
01-20-21	Kings v. Clippers OVER 231.5	Top	96-115	Loss	-110	19 h 57 m	Show
The Kings were a below average defensive team last season, but they weren't a defensive disaster. Sacramento coach Luke Walton decided to make some defensive adjustments this season. The result is the Kings rank last defensively. They have allowed 122 or more points in each of their last eight games. Sacramento is a top-nine scoring team. That combination of good offense/horrendous defense makes the Kings a dead-nuts Over team as long as Walton stays their coach and the oddsmaker is slow to fully adjust. The Over has won in nine of the Kings' last 11 games. There's no reason to go against that pertinent trend in this matchup. The Clippers are averaging 132.3 points in their last three games. That's their best scoring stretch of the season. The teams just met this past Friday and the Clippers won, 138-100, for a total of 238 points.
01-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5		57-64	Win	100	14 h 32 m	Show
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games.
01-20-21	Tulsa +12 v. Houston		59-86	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number.
01-20-21	Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5		74-86	Loss	-111	11 h 30 m	Show
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them.
01-20-21	Oilers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5		3-1	Loss	-113	3 h 46 m	Show
The Maple Leafs have scored a minimum of 3 goals in all four of their games. The Oilers are due to break out after a two-game series against the Canadiens in which they scored only two goals. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are too dangerous to be held in check for three straight games. Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen has been shaky in two of three starts. The Oilers are weak again defensively permitting 3.7 goals during their first four games.
01-20-21	Nets v. Cavs +10.5		135-147	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
There is a strong possibility the Nets will have their three superstars - James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving - playing together for the first time when they meet the Cavaliers today. Consider two things before jumping to the conclusion that the Nets are going to destroy the Cavaliers. No. 1: Irving hasn't played in 15 days. He's going to be rusty. Also it takes time for three players of that magnitude to get comfortable with each other on the court. This is what Nets coach Steve Nash said about that, "It's hard to build chemistry without playing, and we're not playing in practice. So the chemistry is going to be formed on the floor during games." Irving may be on a minutes restriction. It's doubtful those three mega stars are playing if Brooklyn does build a big lead leaving the back-door open for Cleveland. The teams meet again on Friday. No. 2: It's not getting nearly the publicity of Irving's return, but the Cavaliers are expecting to get back their injured starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Both went through full practice on Monday. Reserve guard Damyean Dotson has done a credible job filling in. Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league averaging 25 points. Center Jarrett Allen and veteran Taurean Prince are set to make their Cleveland debuts. They were part of the Harden trade. Allen is having a good season averaging 11.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. He joins Andre Drummond, who is averaging a career-best 19.3 points and 15.8 rebounds. There's also the situational factor to consider. The Nets are in a letdown spot after a dramatic nationally televised two-point victory against the Bucks two nights ago. The Nets were underdogs against the Bucks. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the past eight times it has been favored.
01-19-21	Thunder +10 v. Nuggets		101-119	Loss	-104	7 h 48 m	Show
The Nuggets have captured the Northwest Division each of the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference finals last season. But Denver is off to a 6-7 start this season as their roster composition is much different from last year. The Nuggets also are missing a key cog with breakout star Michael Porter sidelined because of COVID-19 protocols. So right now the Nuggets shouldn't be laying double-digits to a feisty underdog such as Oklahoma City. The Thunder have excelled in this exact role - road 'dogs. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS the past 29 times taking road points for a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS as away 'dogs this season with straight-up victories against the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans in this role. The Thunder should be well-rested and prepared having last played this past Friday as their Sunday game against the 76ers was postponed due to contact tracing issues with Philadelphia.
01-19-21	Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova	Top	74-76	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.
01-18-21	Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5		50-59	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure.
01-18-21	Sabres v. Flyers OVER 5.5		6-1	Win	100	4 h 20 m	Show
The Flyers have shown plenty of offense in the early going producing 11 goals in their first two games, both against the Penguins. The Sabres are more dangerous on the offensive end adding Taylor Hall. That gives Buffalo's three strong scoring threats with Jack Eichel and Victor Olofsson. These teams have a history of going Over especially when playing in Philadelphia where the Over has cashed 73 percent during the past 32 meetings.
01-18-21	Bucks -122 v. Nets	Top	123-125	Loss	-122	14 h 5 m	Show
Perhaps by the end of the season, the Nets will be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But right now the Bucks are the superior club. Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight games, averaging 119 points a game during this span. James Harden will be playing just his second game as a Net. He played 40 minutes and had a triple-double against the Magic on Saturday. Harden hadn't played in four days prior to that game. We'll see what kind of shape he's in stepping way up in class against the Bucks with his new team. The 8-6 Nets aren't expected to have Kyrie Irving for a seventh straight game. The Nets had to trade starting center Jarrett Allen and key reserve Caris LeVert to get Harden. Their center spot is now manned by over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan, who contributes virtually no scoring. The Bucks have been the best regular-season team for the past two seasons and they have the best record in the Eastern Conference this season.They average more points than the Nets and give up four fewer points per game than Brooklyn. Milwaukee has beaten the Nets eight straight times in Brooklyn.
01-18-21	The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro		73-87	Loss	-110	11 h 14 m	Show
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests.
01-18-21	VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State		81-92	Loss	-107	11 h 10 m	Show
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws.
01-18-21	Bruins v. Islanders +121		0-1	Win	121	3 h 57 m	Show
I'll take the Islanders as a home 'dog coming off an embarrassing 5-0 road loss to the Rangers this past Saturday. The Islanders played a terrible game and backup goalie Ilya Sorokin seemed ill-prepared as a surprise starter in that game, judging by his poor performance, when starter Semyon Varlamov suffered a freak injury during pregame warmups. Word is that Varlamov is able to play today. I'm fine with the Islanders even if Sorokin has to play again. He's better than what he showed in that game. I'm expecting a supreme effort from the Islanders after their coach, the highly-respected Barry Trotz, ripped them following the Rangers' loss. This is a good spot to go against the Bruins being early in the season. Boston doesn't have David Pastrnak back yet and they are in transition defensively minus the departed Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The Bruins opened with a split against the Devils, with both of those games behind decided either in overtime or in a shootout.
01-17-21	Pelicans v. Kings OVER 226.5		128-123	Win	101	8 h 29 m	Show
Both Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy and Kings coach Luke Walton put in new defenses for their respective teams this season. New Orleans caught a few opponents off-guard with that early on, but the Pelicans are giving up an average of 112.6 points in regulation during their last five games. That figure would rank them in the bottom 10 if computed during the entire season. Sacramento is 11th in the league in scoring. The Kings always had backcourt scorers, but now they're getting added points from big man Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley Jr. The Kings have scored 123 or more points in four of their last six games. Walton's new defensive approach has been a disaster. The Kings are surrendering an average of 131.7 points during their last seven games, giving up 122 or more points in each of those games. So it's not a surprise Sacramento ranks last in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Pelicans have the firepower to take advantage with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Eric Bledsoe.
01-17-21	Blackhawks +138 v. Panthers		2-5	Loss	-100	10 h 51 m	Show
I'm not going to be landing on the Blackhawks too often this season. But this is one of those exceptions. The Panthers finished last season losing nine of their past 11 home games. The key, however, to this handicap to the Blackhawks is the situation. Chicago has played two games. Florida has yet to see action. This disadvantage for Florida is magnified because the Panthers are breaking in many new players and didn't have a preseason to work out the kinks. The Panthers don't have their leading goal scorer from last season, Mike Hoffman. He signed with the Blues. Florida also is likely to be minus veteran defenseman Keith Yandle, who is expected to be a healthy scratch due to issues with management. Starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky won't be in net either. He's still working his way into shape. So the Blackhawks draw Florida backup goalie Chris Driedger. The Blackhawks are stepping way down in class after unfortunately drawing reigning Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay in their first two games. Neither game against the Lightning was close, but the Blackhawks played better in the rematch, which was this past Friday. Chicago has had a nice recent run in Florida beating the Panthers in six of its last eight visits.
01-17-21	Bucs v. Saints -3	Top	30-20	Loss	-110	127 h 57 m	Show
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories.
01-17-21	Memphis v. Tulsa +2		57-58	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games.
01-17-21	Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall		69-67	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there.
01-17-21	Hofstra v. Delaware +3		68-67	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent.
01-16-21	Wild v. Kings +118		4-3	Loss	-100	16 h 22 m	Show
I don't see rookie Kirill Kaprizov repeating his season-opening heroics of producing three points, including scoring an overtime goal, in leading the Wild past the Kings, 4-3, two days ago. I look for the Kings, with their veteran players, to bounce back against the youthful Wild. Veteran defensemen Drew Doughty and Olli Maatta had terrible games. They should play much better for LA, whose blue line gets reinforced with Sean Walker and Kurtis MacDermid now available after missing Thursday's game because of COVID restrictions.
01-16-21	Ravens v. Bills OVER 50	Top	3-17	Loss	-110	113 h 17 m	Show
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup. Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense. The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding. The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo. Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running. The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games. Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.
01-16-21	Canadiens -108 v. Oilers		5-1	Win	100	14 h 23 m	Show
The Canadiens are still kicking themselves for blowing a two-goal lead in their opener against the Maple Leafs, a 5-4 overtime defeat this past Wednesday. The rested Canadiens felt they were the better team. They catch the Oilers playing for the third time in four days. Edmonton got satisfying home revenge in its last game, beating Vancouver, 5-3, this past Thursday. I expect the Canadiens to be better this season with a rejuvenated Carey Price, who did have several outstanding saves against the Maple Leafs.
01-16-21	Magic +9 v. Nets		115-122	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
There's not a lot to like about Orlando right now. The Magic have lost four in a row, losing by an average margin of 26 points during this span. But I'm going to hold my nose and step in with the Magic taking this many points against what has to be a distracted Nets team. Between Kyrie Irving doing his space cadet routine again and James Harden's arrival, the Nets have been a major publicity item. Harden is expected to make his Nets debut here. He won't have Irving, who is out due to personal reasons. Harden won't know his new teammates, will be rusty and likely won't play a ton of minutes especially with the Nets hosting the Bucks in their next game on Monday. Prices on the Nets are up with Harden joining the squad. Everything is about Harden, but the Nets lost two key pieces in the multi-team trade to acquire hime. Caris LeVert, their best bench player and a legitimate quality starter, was sent to the Pacers. Jarrett Allen, their starting center, was set to the Cavaliers. Allen was emerging as a force in the middle. Now the Nets' lone big man is over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan. Orlando's strength is its two big men, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. They can pound the Nets inside. The Magic have covered five of the last six times against the Nets and have been a money-maker on the road going 13-6-1 (68 percent) during their past 20 away contests.
01-16-21	NJIT +3 v. Albany		75-83	Loss	-115	7 h 52 m	Show
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games.
01-16-21	Sharks v. Coyotes -123		3-5	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
I'm playing the Zig/Zag here expecting the Coyotes to bounce back after losing to the Sharks, 4-3, in a shootout on Thursday. San Jose goalie Martin Jones bailed his team out with several outstanding saves in that 4-3 win. Arizona had more shots on goal than San Jose. Even with the victory, the Sharks have lost eight of the last 11 times as an underdog.
01-16-21	Wofford v. Chattanooga +2		77-59	Loss	-105	3 h 10 m	Show
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games.
01-16-21	Army v. Boston University -119		79-59	Loss	-119	3 h 40 m	Show
Boston University won the Patriot League last season. The Terriers swept Army last season, winning by 22 points at home and 14 on the road. The Terriers have back their key player, Walter Whyte. He's the team's second-leading scorer and No. 1 rebounder. Army lacks strong point guard play and is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation at 59.6 percent.
01-15-21	Hawks +6 v. Jazz		92-116	Loss	-105	9 h 50 m	Show
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz.
01-15-21	Blues v. Avalanche -1.5		0-8	Win	172	17 h 8 m	Show
I hold a lot of respect for the Blues. But I want the Avalanche going for me in this short home revenge spot after St. Louis defeated Colorado, 4-1, two days ago. The Avalanche didn't play well. They seemed to be caught off-guard by the Blues' heavy checking and physical ways failing to counter that. I believe the Avalanche will be better prepared and proper adjustments made. They should have some urgency at the thought of going down 0-2 in this shortened season with a pair of home losses especially with their next four games on the road. Colorado has a history of responding well to this type of loss going 7-0 the past seven times following a loss of three or more goals. It's going to be difficult for the Blues to keep the Avalanche's restored No. 1 line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen off the scoreboard. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues faded in the third period with this being their second game in three days playing in high altitude.
01-15-21	Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5		60-54	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
01-15-21	Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Senators		3-5	Loss	-100	15 h 10 m	Show
I think the highly-talented Maple Leafs have a shot to win the Stanley Cup this season. Toronto wasn't that sharp in its opener against Montreal, but came back from a two-goal deficit to nip the Canadiens in overtime. I expect the Maple Leafs to play better against the Senators. Toronto has the edge of already having played a game - not to mention a huge advantage in talent - while Ottawa is making its season debut. The Senators were the second-worst team in the league last season. The Senators are breaking in many new faces and without preseason they likely will start slow.
01-15-21	Blackhawks v. Lightning -1.5		2-5	Win	100	15 h 6 m	Show
The defending Stanley Cup Lightning are an elite tier team, while the Blackhawks rank among the worst teams. This was evident in Wednesday's opener won by the Lightning, 5-1. The score could have been even more lopsided but Blackhawks goalie Malcolm Subban made a couple of great saves. Tampa Bay dominated that game. I don't see anything changing. The Blackhawks are inexperienced, weak in net and really missing the presence of sidelined team captain Jonathan Toews. The Lightning have beaten the Blackhawks in nine of their past 10 regular-season meetings. The chances of the Lightning letting down are lessened by the heavy reduction of games this season, making each matchup important. Tampa Bay doesn't have to play an "A" game to defeat the Blackhawks by multiple goals.
01-15-21	Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo	Top	76-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
01-15-21	Niagara v. Manhattan +2.5		49-58	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points.
01-14-21	Colorado State v. San Jose State UNDER 156		90-57	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
This game could get lopsided real fast. Colorado State gives up 64.7 points a game, ranking 61st in the country. San Jose State ranks 335th in field goal percentage. The Spartans, winless in the Mountain West Conference, have scored 65 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. Neither team is good at offensive rebounding so there shouldn't be many easy putback baskets off missed shots. Colorado State probably can name its score here. But the Rams and Spartans square off again on Saturday. So the Rams are likely to not run up a score and get their reserves ample minutes if the game gets out of hand, which is likely to happen. Given the circumstances and San Jose State's scoring woes, Under is the right way to look.
01-14-21	Washington v. USC UNDER 139.5		68-95	Loss	-105	15 h 40 m	Show
USC ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Washington is having a down year averaging just 63.3 points, which ranks 317th in the nation, and shooting 39.4 percent from the floor, which rates 321st. The Huskies are going to have trouble scoring inside against USC's star Mobley brothers, Evan and Isaiah. The Trojans averaged only 51 points in two games against the Huskies last season. USC has been frigid in its 3-point shooting during its past two games making just 6-of-43 for 14 percent. The Huskies always have had a highly-respected defense under Mike Hopkins.
01-14-21	Canucks v. Oilers -120		2-5	Win	100	17 h 58 m	Show
Vancouver exploited Edmonton's vulnerable defense with a 5-3 road victory Wednesday night. Oilers superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisailt were held to a combined one assist by the Canucks. I'm betting on a bounce back from the Oilers and McDavid and Draisailt. Call it a zig-zag play if you want. I'm impressed with Vancouver's young scorers. But the Oilers still have more firepower especially with the Canucks missing center J.T. Miller. He's out with an undisclosed injury. Miller scored the most points for Vancouver last season and tied for the team lead in goals with 27. There's a good chance both teams go with their backup goalies in this one. If that's the case, I would rate an edge to Edmonton with Mike Smith. Mikko Koskinen was disappointing in net for the Oilers on Wednesday. So Smith should be an improvement.
01-14-21	Northern Colorado -6 v. Idaho		74-54	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
Northern Colorado is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference that has owned Idaho beating them the past six times.The Bears' average winning margin in these games is 20 points. Everybody in the Big Sky beats Idaho. The Vandals are one of the worst teams in the country. They are winless in nine games and 0-6 in the Big Sky. Northern Colorado is 8-1 ATS the last nine times taking on foes with a winning percentage below 40 percent. Bodie Hume gives Northern Colorado the best player on the court. The Bears give up 10 points fewer per game than Idaho, which is 1-8 ATS in its past nine home contests.
01-14-21	Hornets v. Raptors UNDER 220		108-111	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
The Hornets' decent 6-6 start can be attributed to defense. Charlotte ranks eighth defensively holding foes to 107.3 points. Hornets Coach James Borrego is showing how much he prefers defense above offense by giving minutes to Cody and Caleb Martin while keeping scorer Malik Monk on the bench. A rusty Monk may get an opportunity here, though, as the Hornets' leading scorer, Gordon Hayward, may not play after suffering a hip strain on Wednesday. Hayward and Terry Rozier are the only Charlotte players averaging more than 13 points per game. Charlotte ranks 24th in scoring at 107.2. The Hornets just matched their lowest scoring output of the season in a 104-93 home loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. That game went 24 points below the closing total of 221. The Hornets lack inside scoring. They have to work hard for their baskets. Toronto gave up the second-fewest points per game last season. The Raptors, though, have been a major disappointment so far this season losing eight of their first 10 games while ranking 19th defensively yielding 112.5 points. Lately, however, the Raptors have shown defensive improvement. They held Golden State to 106 points and Portland to 112 points both on the road during their past two games. That's six points below the season average of both of those teams. The Raptors have played seven Western Conference teams plus the Celtics and 76ers - each of whom rank in the top 12 in scoring - during their first 10 games. Now they are stepping down in class against a punchless offense that could be without its best scorer.
01-14-21	Islanders -105 v. Rangers	Top	4-0	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
By the end of the season, the Rangers could prove dangerous. But right now the Rangers are somewhat vulnerable being one of the youngest teams in the league. The patient, well-coached, savvy Islanders are a bad first-game matchup for the Rangers. The Rangers' home ice edge is greatly reduced, too, with no fans allowed in the stands and the Islanders just having to make a short trip. The absence of exhibition games hurts the Rangers far more than the Islanders, who retain virtually their entire roster that took Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay to six games in the Eastern Conference finals. Morale is up for the Islanders after they were able to sign Mathew Barzal to a contact extension last week.
01-13-21	New Mexico v. Dixie State +3		72-63	Loss	-115	16 h 24 m	Show
Maybe New Mexico's nickname should be changed from the Lobos to the Hobos. Headquartered in Albuquerque, New Mexico has been on the road much of the season because of COVID-19 issues. The Lobos had been temporarily living in a hotel and working out of rented gyms in the Lubbock area of West Texas. Now the Lobos are leaving Lubbock to set up shop for two weeks in St. George, Utah. Before they get settled there, though, it was decided they would play Dixie State, which is in its first year of Division I basketball. The Trailblazers are 4-2 competing in the Western Athletic Conference. One of those two losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga on the road, 112-67. The Trailblazers are motivated to knock off this Mountain West Conference opponent. New Mexico has gotten destroyed in Mountain West play losing all six of its games with its average loss being 25.5 points. The Lobos have failed to cover any of these six games. The Lobos have been one of the worst ATS road teams covering only 33 percent of their last 76 away games. New Mexico has 12 new players on its roster. They started the second half of their last game, an 82-46 loss to Utah State in Lubbock this past Friday, with four freshmen. Lobos coach Paul Weir might use this non-conference game to continue the team's youth movement.
01-13-21	Blackhawks v. Lightning -1.5		1-5	Win	110	14 h 59 m	Show
Forget that the Blackhawks upset the Oilers in the playoffs last season. Chicago is in full rebuild mode. The Blackhawks are going to be especially vulnerable early in the year as they try to develop an identity and learn to play without injured center Jonathan Toews, their captain for the last 13 seasons. The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning want to make an early statement. There's an urgency for them with the long-delayed season reduced to 56 regular season games. They can't screw around with a loss to such a lightly-regarded foe. Tampa Bay has beaten Chicago in eight of the last nine meetings. The Lightning won't be taking the Blackhawks lightly either after Chicago stunned Edmoton in the postseason. The Blackhawks lack the goaltending, power play and center depth minus Toews and Kirby Dach to hang close to Tampa Bay.
01-13-21	Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5		4-5	Loss	-110	13 h 53 m	Show
The Canadians have gotten bigger on the defensive end. The Maple Leafs have slowed down their up-tempo style adding lots of age while dialing back some of their youth. They won't be afraid to grind more now. So I don't see a fast-paced game. Carey Price had a bounce back year last season. A return to dominance from Price makes Montreal tough to score on especially with its added size. The Canadiens closed out last season going Under in six of their last seven road contests. Toronto went Under in its last five home games last season.
01-13-21	Canadiens +118 v. Maple Leafs		4-5	Loss	-100	13 h 51 m	Show
Toronto has new faces, older ones at that. So the Maple Leafs are in a bit of a transition phase. Montreal came on last season and has improved its depth. The Canadiens have a good lineup on paper, which I think will translate to victories especially with Carey Price looking rejuvenated. Note, too, Toronto loses some of its home ice edge because no spectators are being allowed in any of the Canadian arenas.
01-13-21	Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State	Top	53-72	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
01-13-21	Rhode Island v. Massachusetts +3		78-80	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
I'm not buying Rhode Island as a road favorite in this Atlantic-10 Conference grudge matchup. UMass is a dominant 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) in its last 27 home contests. The Minutemen average 13 points more per game than Rhode Island. UMass also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Tre Mitchell, who is averaging 20.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring while ranking ninth in rebounding. Mitchell averaged 31 points in two games against the Rams last season hitting 23 of 35 shots from the floor. UMass covered both of its games last season against Rhode Island, including a 64-63 loss as 3-point home 'dogs. Rhode Island is playing at a different venue for the fourth straight game. The Rams were supposed to get a seven-day break after their 83-68 upset road victory against VCU this past Saturday as this game originally was scheduled for Feb. 27. But it was moved to today.
01-12-21	Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC	Top	62-67	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
01-12-21	Jazz v. Cavs +11	Top	117-87	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
Anytime you have Yogi Ferrell drawing minutes you know it's either a YMCA game, or an NBA team that has a serious injury situation and needs a body. Such is the case with the Cavaliers. But this spot sets up well for Cleveland so I'm taking double-digits with the home 'dog Cavaliers. Utah is playing its sixth road game in 10 days. The Jazz are 3-2 on their trip and off double-digit wins against the Bucks and Pistons. They conclude their road swing on Wednesday against the Wizards. The Jazz knows the Cavaliers are short-handed. This is a letdown and rest stop for them. Cleveland is minus Kevin Love, Dante Exum, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. The Cavaliers also were minus Collin Sexton for a third straight game after he was a late scratch in Monday's 101-91 home loss to Memphis. It's a big plus if Sexton, an underrated guard having a tremendous season averaging 25.1 points, can play. But if he can't, I still like Cleveland to cover. The Cavaliers are playing at a snail's pace. They have an excellent big man, Andre Drummond, to execute this half-court style and frustrate Utah. Drummond gets some help on the frontcourt from Larry Nance Jr. An ugly, low-scoring matchup, which this game figures to be, is a plus for such a large-sized underdog.
01-12-21	Eastern Michigan +11 v. Toledo		63-96	Loss	-110	11 h 10 m	Show
Toledo could be the best team in the Mid-American Conference. But I see a buy sign on Eastern Michigan after the Eagles upset Akron as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs, 71-59, this past Saturday. Akron averages nearly 80 points a game. So the Eagles should enter this matchup with confidence. They have a good backcourt with Bryce McBride and Yeikson Montero. They combine to average nearly 30 points a game. Toledo has a bigger game on deck when it plays at Akron on Sunday. Akron is tied for the second-best record in the MAC. The Rockets are 5-11 ATS against opponents with a losing record.
01-12-21	Miami-FL v. Boston College +3		62-84	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
Don't be scared off by Boston College's 2-9 record. The Eagles have played a murderous schedule and are in circle-the-wagons mode to halt a four-game losing streak and win their first ACC game of the season. This is their chance at home before going on the road for consecutive away contests. The Eagles lost to Duke by one point. Fell in overtime to Minnesota. Led Villanova by nine points before losing. Boston College lost 61-49 to Virginia this past Saturday. Wynston Tabbs, BC's leading scorer, was held scoreless in the loss to Virginia going 0-for-9 from the floor. Miami gives up eight points more per game than Virginia. Miami is a terrible 3-point shooting team and below average in free throw shooting. The Hurricanes could be without their starting backcourt, too. Chris Lykes, who led Miami in scoring last season, has been out with an ankle injury and Kameron McGusty is questionable with a hamstring injury.
01-11-21	Ohio State v. Alabama -8	Top	24-52	Win	100	129 h 9 m	Show
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
01-11-21	Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State		58-48	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Indiana State upset Loyola of Chicago, 76-71, as 8-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Loyola, which ranks eighth in the country in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage, had an off-shooting game. The Ramblers shot 43 percent from the field and missed 18 of 27 3-point shots. Indiana State, which ranks 256th in field goal percentage and 200th in 3-point percentage, shot 44 percent from the floor and made 8 of 18 3-pointers. The Sycamores received 31 points from Tyreke Key, which is 16 points above his season scoring average. The Ramblers had won and covered their previous three games. I see them bouncing back in this short revenge spot. I expect them to shoot more like their normal selves while Key comes back to Earth.
01-10-21	Browns v. Steelers -5.5		48-37	Loss	-110	78 h 51 m	Show
Despite holding out eight starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt and center Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers nearly upset the Browns on the road this past Sunday losing 24-22 when Mason Rudolph threw an incomplete pass on a game-tying two point conversion try with 1:22 to play. Now the Steelers are rested and host the Browns, who they have beaten 17 straight times at home. This includes a 38-7 beatdown of the Browns back in October. Cleveland hasn't made the playoffs since 2002. Pittsburgh is far healthier than the Browns, who are dealing with multiple COVID issues. Denzel Ward, the Browns' best cornerback, has been sidelined with COVID. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won't be able to coach the game because of COVID. Olivier Vernon, the Browns' second-best pass rusher, is out after tearing his Achilles in Week 17. I question the Browns' maturity level and now their coaching without Stefanski. The Steelers have a far better defense than the Browns. I also trust Roethlisberger far more than Baker Mayfield, especially playing at Heinz Field where his lifetime splits have been far better at home than on the road. Pittsburgh led the NFL with 56 sacks. Watt is your probable Defensive Player of the Year after leading the NFL with 15 sacks. The Steelers also had 27 takeaways, second-most in the league, and gave up the third-fewest points at 19.5 per game. The line on this game has gone up. But I see the Steelers winning by at least a touchdown so it's worth getting involved.
01-10-21	Bears v. Saints -9.5	Top	9-21	Win	100	127 h 14 m	Show
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons. New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship. The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas. I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion. The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans.
01-10-21	Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 225.5		127-130	Loss	-110	11 h 28 m	Show
The Clippers have a top-10 defense. They should be motivated for this afternoon matchup after losing a 115-105 Friday game to the Warriors where they blew a 20-point second-half lead. The Bulls are short-handed. They likely will be minus two of their four best offensive players. Lauri Markkanen is expected to miss his seventh straight game due to COVID issues and Otto Porter Jr. is doubtful because of a back injury. Zack LaVine has been doing the heavy lifting for Chicago averaging 29.3 points during Chicago's last three games, all of which have been on the road. The Clippers have three elite defenders to slow down LaVine in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley. Tempo always is important in getting involved with a total. This marks Chicago's fourth road game in six days. This is an early start time so it's almost like the Bulls are playing for the fourth time in five days. I highly doubt the weary Bulls want to play at a fast pace. The Clippers play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA.
01-10-21	Radford v. Charleston Southern +3.5		68-48	Loss	-108	6 h 4 m	Show
I'm not convinced Radford should be laying road points despite the Highlanders beating Charleston Southern, 79-64. Radford shot 54 percent from the floor and shot eight more free throws than the Buccaneers, who shot just 37 percent from the floor. Radford plays good defense, but the Highlanders only average 66 points. That's the same number of points Charleston Southern scores per game. Charleston Southern has the best player on the court in Phlandrous Fleming Jr. He averages 20 points a game. Nobody on Radford even averages 12 points a game.
01-10-21	Morgan State +3 v. Norfolk State		85-89	Loss	-108	4 h 5 m	Show
Morgan State has won and covered all five of its board games this season. This includes a 78-74 victory against Norfolk State yesterday. The Bears shot just 38 percent from the field, but held Norfolk State to 34.9 percent shooting from the floor. It was the fourth consecutive time the 'dog has covered in this series. Morgan State has a better record than Norfolk State and has covered the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Bears have outscored their opponents by an average of seven points during their last seven road contests.
01-10-21	Hartford +4 v. UMass Lowell		75-58	Win	100	3 h 6 m	Show
Hartford has a better record than UMass Lowell and short revenge for a 71-62 loss on Saturday. Lowell shot 53.2 percent from the floor in that victory and made 10 more free throws than Hartford, which shot 48 percent from the floor. Lowell's season shooting percentage from the field is 44.2 percent. Lowell is 5-11 ATS as a home favorite while Hartford has covered 10 of its past 14 road contests.
01-09-21	Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45	Top	31-23	Loss	-115	54 h 56 m	Show
Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks. Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster. Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury. Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season. No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games.
01-09-21	Hawks -4 v. Hornets	Top	105-113	Loss	-110	15 h 28 m	Show
We're going to find out just how good Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce is with this game. These two teams just met this past Wednesday. The Hornets surprised the Hawks winning as six-point road 'dogs, 102-94. Trae Young had a bad game missing seven of nine shots from the floor and scoring only seven points, which is nearly 19 points below his season average. On the flip side, Gordon Hayward went off for a career-best 44 points. From a situational perspective, this game sets up well for the Hawks. They have been idle for the past two days since that loss to the Hornets. The Hawks have short revenge and are in stop-the-pain mode trying to halt a three-game losing streak after opening the season 4-1. Charlotte just got finished playing its fourth road game in six days, upsetting the Pelicans, 118-110, on Friday night. This will be the Hornets' first home game in eight days, so that's a bad spot for them from a concentration level. It's also the Hornets' sixth game in nine days so Charlotte carries a huge negative fatigue factor. Young is the most talented player on the court. John Collins the best big man. De'Andre Hunter is an underrated player. Atlanta has more firepower than Charlotte. Pierce has all these factors in his favor, but he has to show the coaching acumen to properly prepare the Hawks for what the Hornets did right in the earlier meeting two days ago, which was press and effectively switch defenses. Hayward is a nice complimentary player. Emphasize the word complimentary. There's no way he should score 44 points against any self-respecting NBA team. So the Hawks obviously have to play better defense on him. The oddsmaker believes the Hawks are the superior team making them road chalk. I do, too, but they have to prove it, especially the coach. I believe they will.
01-09-21	Lafayette +3 v. Bucknell		83-60	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
Sometimes you really have to dig to find a false favorite. When found it usually is a home team from a small conference that fits the bill. Bucknell opened a favorite against Lafayette in this Patriot League matchup. Bingo. The 0-2 Bisons shoot 35.1 percent from the floor and average 64.5 points a game. Lafayette averages 85.5 points a game and shoots 45 percent from the field. Lafayette has been a proven road money-maker going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role.
01-09-21	Washington v. California UNDER 136		78-84	Loss	-110	7 h 16 m	Show
Washington ranks 329th in scoring averaging 61.7 points. California isn't that much better ranking 271st in scoring at 67.6 points. This total, though, has come higher than expected, probably based in part on Washington giving up 91 points in a 16-point loss to Stanford two days ago. That was an aberration. No not that Washington lost. The Huskies are 1-8. But that the Huskies surrendered so many points because they usually can be counted on for good defense under Mike Hopkins, who brought a matchup zone defense with him from Syracuse where he was an assistant for 22 years. The Huskies could catch a break because Cal's leading scorer Matt Bradley hasn't played since Jan. 2 due to an ankle injury. Bradley averages 17.8 points. California's defense is respectable, giving up 68.2 points a game. The Bears are not up-tempo so that's another plus for the Under.
01-09-21	Delaware +2.5 v. William & Mary		62-67	Loss	-110	6 h 18 m	Show
Neither team shoots well. Each team is averaging just 65 points a game. Delaware, however, gives up five fewer points per game than the Tribe. William & Mary is on a four-game losing streak and has yet to win a game in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. The Tribe are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. I think Delaware is the superior team. So getting points is a bonus.
01-09-21	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona +1.5		76-70	Loss	-118	6 h 17 m	Show
These are two bad Big Sky Conference teams. Northern Arizona hosted Idaho State just two days ago and was a 3-point favorite. The Lumberjacks lost, 73-69. So now Northern Arizona finds itself opening as a home 'dog. I'm not buying it. The Lumberjacks have short home revenge and the best player on the court, Cameron Shelton. He averages 21.6 points and 5.5 rebounds. Idaho State beat Northern Arizona because it shot 46 percent from the floor and made 22 of 26 free throws. Northern Arizona shot 40 percent from the field and shot 17 free throws, nine fewer than Idaho State. The Lumberjacks aren't a good shooting team, but I see them getting their revenge.
01-09-21	Texas +2 v. West Virginia		72-70	Win	100	5 h 15 m	Show
Shaka Smart has something going at Texas. The Longhorns are 9-1 and just beat Iowa State, 78-72, at home in a letdown spot this past Tuesday following a monster 25-point road victory against Kansas. Even though West Virginia is the home team, the Mountaineers still could be gasping for breath after coming from 19 points down with 11 minutes to play to pull out an 87-84 road victory against Oklahoma State this past Monday. Making the situation more difficult for the Mountaineers is they are dealing with a flu bug and Derek Culver, their leading rebounder and second-leading scorer, is banged-up.
01-08-21	Suns v. Pistons +7.5	Top	105-110	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past 7 at some sportsbooks and word has come out that Derrick Rose is OK to play, I'm going to get involved with the home underdog Pistons. Phoenix has continued to play well this season after going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble to finish last season. The Suns are 6-2. The timing isn't the best for Phoenix in this matchup, though. The Suns just defeated the Raptors, 123-115, at home two days ago. They play at Indiana on Saturday. That's a more challenging game for them so they don't want to leave everything on the floor in this matchup. But can the 1-7 Pistons hold up their end and make this a close game? I believe they can. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, which is on a three-game losing streak and just suffered a 130-115 loss to the Bucks in a game where Milwaukee scored 82 first-half points. Rose went out in the second quarter after banging his knee. He didn't return. But he is expected to play today as the injury was not serious. This is important not only because Rose still remains an effective player averaging 15.3 points and 5.4 assists in around 24 minutes per game, but also because Detroit's starting point guard, rookie Killian Hayes, is out after suffering a torn labrum in his right hip. The Pistons would be thin and inexperienced in the backcourt without Rose. The Suns aren't a team to back when laying a large number. Phoenix ranks only 20th in scoring averaging 109.8 points per game. Detroit, by contrast, actually averages more points a game at 111.5. The Pistons have been rough on the Suns, too, winning both games last season and covering 13 of the last 16 at home versus Phoenix.
01-08-21	Lipscomb +2.5 v. Bellarmine		77-72	Win	100	10 h 13 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Lipscomb was the preseason favorite to win the Atlantic Sun Conference this season. So I don't see why Bellarmine should be even a slight favorite even being home. Bellarmine's 90-38 victory over some school named Mount St. Joseph in its last game does not impress. The Bisons have the league's preseason Player of the Year in center Ahsan Asadullah. Lipscomb is coming off a split against Liberty, which has the best overall record in the Atlantic Sun. That's far stronger competition than Mount St. Joseph.
01-08-21	Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5	Top	64-76	Loss	-108	6 h 46 m	Show
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games. CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant.
01-07-21	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona OVER 132.5	Top	73-69	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
The Big Sky Conference and defense are words that don't go together. The Over often is the way to look in Big Sky games and this matchup is no exception. Both teams are playing better and more offensive-minded rather than defensive-minded. Idaho State is averaging 84.2 points in its last four games. Northern Arizona has a decent scoring backcourt with Cameron Shelton, one of the better players in the Big Sky, and Luke Advadalovic averaging a combined 32 points per game. The Lumberjacks are averaging 81.5 points in their last two games. The combined total in two regular season meetings between these teams last season was 149 points.
01-07-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. St Francis NY +2		55-70	Win	100	6 h 43 m	Show
I have found a wrong favorite in a Northeast Conference game. I don't believe Mount St. Mary's should be road chalk aaginst St. Francis of Brooklyn. St. Francis is a terrible defensive team. But the Terriers also outscore Mount St. Mary's by more than 16 points per game. The Mountaineers average only 61.4 points. The Terriers are 9-4 ATS the last 13 times as a home 'dog. Mount St. Mary's is 2-7-1 ATS in its past 10 road contests and 1-5 ATS the last six times as an away favorite. Mount St. Mary's also has had to deal with a tough COVID-19 situation missing nearly a month because of issues related to it. The Mountaineers haven't played since Dec. 8. St. Francis last played on Dec. 23 so it shouldn't be as rusty.
01-06-21	Bulls v. Kings -6.5	Top	124-128	Loss	-110	18 h 11 m	Show
Despite missing four players, including Lauri Markkanen, because of COVID reasons the Bulls upset the Trail Blazers, 111-108, as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs Tuesday night. Chicago had lost seven in a row to Portland. It was a tremendous gutty win for the Bulls. Chicago came from 20 points down to pull out the win. But that highly-satisfying victory sets up the Bulls for failure today. Chicago is 8-20 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Bulls have a much more high profile opponent after this game against Sacramento. Chicago meets the world champion Lakers on Friday. The Kings aren't going to lack motivation, nor take the Bulls lightly. After opening 3-1 with home victories against the Nuggets and Suns, the Kings concluded an 0-3 road trip with an embarrassing 137-106 loss to Golden State this past Monday. There's a chance the Kings get back potential rookie of the year candidate Tyrese Haliburton for this game. The No. 12 overall pick in the draft, Haliburton has put up excellent across-the-board numbers for the Kings while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. I like the Kings even if Haliburton can't play. Sacramento is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 home contests. The Bulls, in addition to their letdown factor, carry a heavy fatigue rating and are dealing with a short bench due to COVID. This will be their fifth game in seven days, all at a different location.
01-06-21	Wizards v. 76ers -6.5		136-141	Loss	-110	15 h 14 m	Show
I find this line to be short. The 76ers are 6-1 - the best record in the NBA - and at this early stage could be the best, or second-best, team in the Eastern Conference. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all playing at high levels. Newcomer Seth Curry has upgraded the 76ers' perimeter game, making Embiid even more effective. The Wizards have won two in a row after opening the season 0-5. Russell Westbrook makes Washington look better on paper. But I'm not sold. One of Washington's victories came against 2-5 Minnesota, which was missing its best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. Washington still hasn't made defensive progress ranking second-to-last in points allowed per game. The 76ers give up 19 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Then there is Philly's dominant home-court advantage. The 76ers have won 19 in a row at home. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times as home favorites. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Philadelphia.
01-06-21	Virginia Tech v. Louisville -4		71-73	Loss	-110	13 h 59 m	Show
Death, taxes and Louisville defeating Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have beaten Virginia Tech 16 straight times. Look for that streak to continue. Louisville is 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are playing well and have the shooters to take advantage of the Hokies' below-average 3-point defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played in more than a week because it's scheduled game against Virginia for this past Saturday was postponed because of COVID-19 issues on the Cavaliers' side. Not only will the Hokies be rusty, but this is their first game away from Blacksburg since Nov. 29 and first true road game. They've played seven of their nine games at home with the other two being at neutral sites. Virginia Tech has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups.
01-05-21	Lakers v. Grizzlies +9	Top	94-92	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
The Grizzlies' injury list is a long one - Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow and John Konchar. Morant and Jackson are the Grizzlies' two best players. So why get involved with the Grizzlies? Situation. It sets up well for Memphis plus the Grizzlies are getting reinforcements. This is the Lakers' fourth road game in seven days. The Lakers have won the three previous ones, including defeating the Grizzlies, 108-94, two days ago. The Lakers return to LA following this matchup to host the Spurs on Thursday. A letdown, lack of concentration and this being a rest stop all work against the Lakers in this spot. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have short home revenge. Memphis was hanging in with LA this past Sunday trailing by only two points entering the fourth quarter before falling apart. The Lakers shot 19 free throws to the Grizzlies' eight in that game. So there could be an officiating adjustment to that free throw disparity in this game. Memphis isn't some bottom-feeder even without Morant and Jackson. The Grizzlies nearly made the postseason in the highly competitive Western Conference last season falling to Portland by four points in the play-in game. Jonas Valanciunas is a quality big man and Kyle Anderson is playing well. Key reserve De'Anthony Melton is available now after getting clearance from COVID-19 protocols. The Grizzlies also get Grayson Allen back from an ankle injury and signed Tim Frazier. Allen and Frazier provide needed backcourt depth.
01-05-21	Florida +2.5 v. Alabama	Top	71-86	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle.
01-04-21	Pacers +1.5 v. Pelicans		118-116	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
The Pelicans are a work-in-progress under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Their defense already appears improved - which wasn't a high bar to overcome - but their offense sometimes becomes too reliant on Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. So this should be a good matchup for the Pacers. They also have a new coach, Nate Bjorkgren. Indiana remains scrappy, but the Pacers have become much more of a 3-point shooting team under Bjorkgren. They've have time now to adjust to the loss of forward T.J. Warren, who is out following foot surgery. The Pacers are off a frustrating 106-102 loss to the Knicks from Saturday. The Pelicans defeated the Raptors, 120-116, also on Saturday. That was a highly satisfying victory for the Pelicans.
01-04-21	Celtics v. Raptors -3.5	Top	126-114	Loss	-111	9 h 33 m	Show
Both teams have many kinks to work out during this early part of the season. But Toronto has playoff revenge after being eliminated by Boston in the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are getting more used to their temporary Tampa home and draw the Celtics in a brutal situational spot. This is the Celtics' second consecutive game and fifth in seven days. Toronto still is playing strong defense ranking No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Nick Nurse is one of the few coaches who is at the level of Brad Stevens.
01-04-21	Cavs v. Magic -5		83-103	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Orlando is a team I'm usually more comfortable taking points with rather than laying. But I see this as a good spot for the Magic. The Magic look much improved. They opened 4-0, but then lost to the 76ers. No shame in that. The 76ers have the best record in the NBA at 5-1. But then the Magic lost 108-99 at home this past Saturday to rebuilding Oklahoma City. The Magic missed 20 of 28 shots from the floor in the fourth quarter. Many of these shots were easy and open looks. It was an extremely frustrating defeat for the Magic. Orlando is anxious to get back on track and is pointing to this matchup. The Magic swept all three meetings from Cleveland last season and are 7-3 ATS during their past 10 games versus the Cavaliers. They catch the Cavaliers off a satisfying 96-91 upset victory against the Hawks from two days ago.
01-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44		20-14	Win	100	30 h 16 m	Show
The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs. Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington. Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches. On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre. Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain.
01-03-21	Clippers v. Suns UNDER 218	Top	112-107	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
Maybe it shouldn't be too shocking that the Suns are tied with the top record in the NBA at 5-1. They were the best team in the Orlando bubble last season winning all eight of their games. The Suns are winning with defense. They are giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA at 98.7. Phoenix has been even stingier in its last four games holding foes to 96 points per contest. The oddsmaker and marketplace have been slow to adjust. Phoenix has gone Under in every one of its games. The important matter here is have the proper totals adjustment on Phoenix finally been made? I say it still hasn't. This total is too high. Both the Clippers and Suns are slow-paced teams. The Clippers will be looking to pound the Suns inside in a deliberate, time-consuming matter. Superstar Kawhi Leonard is bothered by wearing a face mask, something he has to do for the time being after suffering a deep cut near his mouth a few games ago. LA was just held to 100 points on the road against the Jazz in its last game this past Friday. Chris Paul is running the show in Phoenix, which has meant a slower tempo. That's helped keep Phoenix's scores down, too. The average combined score in Phoenix games this season is 206.6 points. Not once has there been more than 216 points scored in any of the Suns' games. The Clippers should have their defensive intensity up for this game coming off a 106-100 road loss to Utah and realizing how improved Phoenix is. Leonard and Paul George are excellent defenders in addition to being high scorers. Patrick Beverley is a superb defender, too. LA ranks 11th in scoring defense. If you discount a freakish 124-73 loss to Dallas, the Clippers would be giving up 105.8 points per game instead of 108.8. That lower figure would have them ranked seventh in the league defensively.
01-03-21	UMKC +3.5 v. North Dakota		77-53	Win	100	7 h 9 m	Show
These teams met on Saturday with North Dakota winning, 52-45. I can envision another low-scoring game so I'll take the points in this quick revenge setup. UMKC shot 35 percent from the floor, made 2 of 12 3-pointers and missed 7 of 14 free throws against North Dakota. The Roos on the season average 76.9 points, shoot 53.5 percent from the floor and make 57.3 percent of their free throws. This has come against inferior competition. But the Roos still should shoot much better in this rematch. North Dakota only averages 61 points on the season. The Fighting Hawks shoot 40.8 percent (286nd in the nation) from the floor and hit 28.3 percent (300th) of their 3-point shots. So they aren't a very good offensive team. They aren't very good at all being 2-8. They also got to shoot 29 free throws to UMKC's 14 on Saturday. Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. North Dakota is 2-7 ATS following a win.
01-03-21	Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 50		14-28	Win	100	34 h 47 m	Show
The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson. The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers. It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to. Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner. The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.
01-03-21	Titans -7.5 v. Texans		41-38	Loss	-104	33 h 26 m	Show
Houston's season was finished before Halloween. Now the nightmarish 2020 year concludes for the Texans against Tennessee, one of only three teams in the NFL to average 30 points. The Texans' bottom-five defense isn't going to be able to stop a high-powered Titans squad that is in must-win mode. Houston not only lacks the run defense to contain Derrick Henry, but doesn't have the defensive backfield speed to keep Ryan Tannehill from picking it apart throwing to wide receiving studs A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Henry has averaged 187 all-purpose yards with five TD's in his last three games against the Texans. Tannehill's numbers against Houston in the last three games are 67 percent completions, 8.7 YPA and an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Titans were slowed down at Green Bay last week because of snowy conditions. That's not going to be the case here in Houston's temperature-controlled venue. Houston's morale has to be questioned. The Texans have lost four in a row, including falling, 37-31, to the Bengals at home last week. A Bengal offense devoid of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd produced 540 yards against Houston. That's enough to cause serious chemistry and confidence issues for any defense. It's scary to think how many points the Titans can put up against the Texans. Deshaun Watson is pitted against that, expected by the oddsmaker to exchange enough points with the Titans to keep Houston's loss to around a touchdown. How? The Texans rank 30th in rushing. They are missing two of their three best wide receivers. Their tight ends are dreadful and their best blocker, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is out with an ankle injury. The Titans' defense isn't very good, but it doesn't need to be very good to tee off on Watson since they are likely to be playing with a lead throughout. Oh, yes, Watson is banged-up with a sore elbow and arm. Even as clueless a coach as Romeo Crennel is, he has to realize he can't risk his franchise QB if the Titans should get way in front. So it wouldn't be shocking if Watson didn't even finish this game.
01-03-21	Raiders v. Broncos OVER 51		32-31	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale. Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind. Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this. The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense.
01-03-21	Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers	Top	26-23	Loss	-112	33 h 11 m	Show
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety. Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points. Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive.
01-03-21	Cardinals v. Rams +3		7-18	Win	100	26 h 22 m	Show
Sean McVay may have picked up a few critics since the Rams' Super Bowl loss to the Patriots two seasons ago. I'm not one of them. The Rams have a far better defense than the Cardinals and McVay had an entire week to prepare fill-in QB John Wolford and devise a suitable game plan. Losing Jared Goff is a negative. Goff, though, isn't an elite quarterback. He's slightly above average - and that's with a clean pocket and being in a warm-weather site. The Rams lose experience and downfield passing with the drop from Goff to Wolford. But they gain far more quarterback mobility. McVay is one of the top play-callers in the NFL. I'm confident he will put Wolford in a position to succeed. The Rams won't have their top wide receiver Cooper Kupp, or probably two of their three best running backs. They still provide plenty of receiving weapons for Wolford with Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, underrated rookie Van Jefferson and one of the better tight end duos in the NFL, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. The Cardinals have sprung a leak with their run defense due in part to injuries. 49ers backup running back Jeff Wilson rushed for 183 yards against them last week. Arizona has permitted 5.2 yards per run during the past four games. Effective running by the Rams can set up Wolford. At best, the Cardinals' defense is mediocre. They rank 15th in scoring defense. LA's defense could be the best in the NFL ranking first in total yards and pass defense while giving up the third-fewest points at 19.3 per game. Kyler Murray needs to run and roam free for the Cardinals to have success. Murray is hampered by a lower-body injury. He also has to deal with the monstrous Aaron Donald, the NFC's sack leader with 13 1/2. Murry relies on the magnificent DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins isn't 100 percent either and he has his own defensive demon to content with - shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey. So the outstanding Rams defense is well equipped to deal with the Cardinals' offensive strengths. Murry is 0-3 lifetime against the Rams, who have held him to a 57 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and only an average of 14 yards rushing per game. McVay has never lost to the Cardinals posting a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS record versus Arizona. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals by an average of three touchdowns. The Rams wouldn't need to win this game to earn a playoff spot if the Bears lose to the Packers. However, that game starts the same time as this matchup so the Rams will be assured of having their full focus and going all out.
01-03-21	Steelers +10.5 v. Browns		22-24	Win	100	31 h 33 m	Show
I get why the Browns are such heavy favorites. I just don't trust them even though the Steelers will be sitting a number of starters, including Ben Roethlisberger and T.J. Watt, who probably will be named Defensive Player of the Year. How proven and mature are the Browns in must-win spots when they are heavy chalk? How sharp is first-year Browns coach Kevin Stefanski when he had Baker Mayfield launch 53 passes against the Jets last week when his team was missing their top four wide receivers and had all inexperienced wideouts? How in sync will the Browns be having to deal with a heavy dose of COVID issues the past couple of weeks? As it is, the Browns will be minus their top cornerback, Denzel Ward, along with several other players due to COVID. Cleveland is expected to get back two key offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills. But that's not a given. Wills was supposed to play last week, but was a last-minute scratch. The Steelers are still the Steelers, a well-coached team with a lot of pride that could earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win and a Bills loss to the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is 22-8-2 ATS the past 32 times as an underdog for a long-term percentage of 73 percent in that role. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as favorites this season. Mason Rudolph proved to be a stiff when called upon last season. I joked that Myles Garrett made a huge mistake by trying to injure Rudolph knocking him out of the game. Rudolph, in his third season, is said to be improved. Certainly he's not going to lack motivation. If I were a member of the Steelers, I would take it as an insult that Stefanski named Garrett team captain for this game after Garrett's reprehensible helmet-hitting actions against Rudolph last season. These teams don't exactly love each other. Bottom line for the Browns is they need to win. But they don't need to win by double-digits.
01-02-21	Cavs +7 v. Hawks	Top	96-91	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
The Hawks look improved. But so do the 3-2 Cavaliers, who catch the Hawks in a letdown spot and carrying a high fatigue rating. Atlanta is coming off a satisfying 114-96 revenge victory against the Nets on the road Friday night. Brooklyn had nipped the Hawks in a wild 145-141 game on Wednesday in which Atlanta blew a late lead. So now the Hawks come home to Atlanta where they find the Cavaliers waiting for them. Cleveland should have its intensity up after consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pacers on Thursday. The Cavaliers had opened with three straight victories before these two setbacks. That was their best start in five years. Both defeats are humbling to the Cavaliers, who fell 95-86 to the Knicks and 119-99 to Indiana. I'm looking for Cleveland to bounce back in this spot. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games going back to last season and also have covered seven of the past 10 times versus the Hawks in Atlanta. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS the last 12 times when playing without rest. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Hawks could be missing a pair of veterans. Rajon Rondo missed last night's game with a sore knee and sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari has been out with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Hawks star Trae Young, who has been dealing with a sore calf.
01-02-21	Marshall -115 v. Louisiana Tech	Top	80-73	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
I see Marshall getting revenge on Louisiana Tech after losing, 75-68, to the Bulldogs on New Year's Day. The Thunder Herd shot just 39 percent from the floor and connected on 10 of 15 free throws for 67 percent. Marshall shoots 76 percent for the season from the foul line, which ranks 34th. Louisiana Tech, by contrast, sank 47 percent of its field goals and got to shoot 11 more free throws than Marshall. Marshall has a size edge on Louisiana Tech and has covered seven of its last 11 games. The Thunder Herd outscore the Bulldogs by six points on the season.
01-01-21	Celtics v. Pistons +10	Top	93-96	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
Even with the regular season reduced from 82 to 72 games, elite teams such as Boston seek rest stops on its schedule. One such rest spot is today's game at Detroit against the 0-4 Pistons. The Celtics are coming off consecutive victories beating the Pacers on the road Tuesday and cruising past the short-handed Grizzlies at home on Wednesday. This marks the Celtics' fourth game in six days. The Pistons, by contrast, have been idle the past two days having last played on Tuesday. The Pistons aren't likely to have Blake Griffin, who is in the league's concussion protocol. Rookie point guard Killian Hayes probably is out, too. I'd rather have Hayes out since he's a work-in-progress for the rebuilding Pistons. This might mean giving more minutes to veteran Derrick Rose. It's a bonus if Griffin plays because I like the Pistons in this spot regardless if Griffin plays or sits. The Pistons have hung around in their games. They should have defeated the improved Cavaliers blowing a late lead and losing in overtime. Dwane Casey is a solid coach and the Pistons have been getting strong play from a couple of unsung players, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson. Boston isn't motivated to run up a score since the teams play again on Sunday and the Celtics don't want to provide the Pistons with any extra motivation.
01-01-21	Arkansas State +3 v. Louisiana-Monroe		72-84	Loss	-110	15 h 30 m	Show
Arkansas State should be able to pull the outright upset with a decent frontcourt and UL Monroe's lack of scoring. The Warhawks average just 63.6 points per game, which ranks 301st in the country. Arkansas State has played weak competition, but the Red Wolves average nearly 13 points more per contest than Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks were bad last season especially on the offensive side and they are bad again this season shooting 39.5 percent from the field, which ranks 302nd.