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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-05-18	Tigers v. White Sox -163		10-2	Loss	-163	12 h 43 m	Show
I'm willing to lay this price in order to get on board with Michael Kopech. The rookie could be the best pitching prospect in baseball. So far he's lived up to that giving up one run in 11 innings with a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first three big league starts, two of which were interrupted by rain. Kopech faced the Tigers on Aug. 26, holding them to one run on seven hits in six innings. The White Sox have quietly been playing good ball winning 14 of their last 21, including going 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers aren't as enthused as the youthful White Sox. Detroit has suffered a lot of injuries and is playing the string out. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11. They are starting Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 6.26 lifetime ERA versus the White Sox in 12 career starts.
09-03-18	Mets +124 v. Dodgers	Top	4-2	Win	124	17 h 13 m	Show
What if I told you that you could get arguably the best pitcher in baseball - the one who has the lowest ERA in the majors and has given up three or fewer runs in 24 straight games - at an underdog price? You would grab it, right, especially when it comes with a huge situational edge? That's what the underdog Mets have going for themselves on Monday in a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Alex Wood. The Mets can't match the Dodgers at the other eight spots, but deGrom is an absolute monster ranking first in ERA, fourth in strikeouts and sixth in WHIP in the majors. The Mets have won three of their last four games. The Dodgers are playing well, too, but are in a dangerous letdown spot after winning their last three games against the Diamondbacks to take over sole possession of first place in the NL West Division. LA won all of these games against Arizona by the same 3-2 score. The Mets already are on the West Coast having just concluded a series against the Giants in San Francisco. They draw Wood, who has possess a decent by hardly dominating 8-6 record and 3.42 ERA. The Mets are well acquainted with Wood, who used to pitch for the Braves in the NL East. Wood is 1-3 career-wise versus the Mets with a 3.83 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Wood's last four home starts.
09-02-18	Rockies -132 v. Padres	Top	7-3	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Maybe it's because he pitches at Coors Field. Maybe it's because the Rockies aren't a big market team. Whatever the reason, Kyle Freeland may be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Freeland is 12-7 with a 2.90 ERA despite pitching at Coors. Freeland has been pitching well for quite a while now, but he's been especially dominant during his last five starts with a 1.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings during this span. Colorado is 16-5 in Freeland's past 21 starts, 10-1 during his last 11 outings. Oh, yes, Freeland is a southpaw. The Padres have a hideous 13-30 record versus lefty starters this season. That's the most losses against southpaws in the majors. The Padres are in rebuild mode. They are just 27-44 at home. San Diego has gutted its bullpen and is auditioning young starters, sort of throwing darts. Rookie Jacob Nix gets the call here. He has a 4.05 ERA and doesn't miss many bats with just seven strikeouts in 20 innings. Colorado is familar with Nix having just seen him on Aug. 22. The Rockies scored three runs on five hits in five innings against Nix winning 6-2 at home. The Rockies rank in the top-10 in runs and batting average, while the Padres rank in the bottom-three in those categories.
09-01-18	Red Sox v. White Sox +155		6-1	Loss	-100	16 h 14 m	Show
Boston is a phenomenal 93-42. However, the Red Sox are merely 17-14 when going against a lefty starter. The Red Sox face one of the hottest southpaws in the league in a pitching matchup of Eduardo Rodriguez versus Carlos Rodon. Rodriguez is making his first start since July 14 having been sidelined by a sprained ankle. Rodon has been terrific since returning from injury. He is 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA during his past nine starts. Not only do the White Sox have their hottest pitcher going, but they are playing their finest ball winning 12 of their last 17 games. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs in its past 19 games. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in 11 of their last 13 games. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last six road games, including a 6-1 setback to the White Sox on Friday night.
09-01-18	Brewers +130 v. Nationals		4-5	Loss	-100	16 h 10 m	Show
Milwaukee is 8-3 and very much in playoff contention. They have a very good manager in Craig Counsell and excellent team morale knowing their management is constantly making moves to improve the team. One of those moves was picking up Gio Gonzalez, who had pitched seven years for Washington. The Brewers are sure to pick the newly acquired Gonzalez's brain about the Nationals. Washington has a terrible manager, Dave Martinez, low morale and has been a major underachiever with a below .500 record. Yet the oddsmaker has installed the Nationals as the favorite here because of a pitching matchup of Chase Anderson versus Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has the big reputation. But it's Anderson who has the lower ERA this season. Opponents are batting just .224 versus Anderson, who has a 2.97 ERA in 12 road starts. Starsburg has really struggled when pitching at home going 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime games against the Brewers. Strasburg can't expect much help from a Nationals bullpen that has been depleted by injuries and trades.
09-01-18	Boise State v. Troy +10	Top	56-20	Loss	-106	45 h 8 m	Show
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat.
09-01-18	Old Dominion v. Liberty OVER 58		10-52	Win	100	42 h 28 m	Show
I see both these teams scoring a lot of points based on their offensive strengths, which fit the opponent's defensive weakness. Old Dominion should pile up the rushing yards with Jeremy Cox running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. Liberty has an outstanding passing game led by quarterback Stephen Calvert. The Flames have nearly all of their top receivers back, too. Old Dominion has a vulnerable defensive backfield.
09-01-18	Texas State v. Rutgers -16.5		7-35	Win	100	16 h 49 m	Show
Rutgers is going to relish a chance to bury an opponent and built up its confidence. The Scarlet Knights have had the defense. Now they have the makings of a decent offense to accomplish this against an overmatched opponent. Boston College transfer Jon Hilliman leads a good crop of Rutgers running backs that includes talented Raheem Blackshear and Jerome Washington is one of the better tight ends in the country. Freshman quarterback Art Sitowski was an "A" level recruit. How bad is Texas State? The Bobcats have won three games the past two years. Texas State didn't intercept a pass last season and only once in two seasons did its offense produce at least 14 points in non-conference FBS play.
08-31-18	Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 52.5		3-34	Loss	-105	48 h 47 m	Show
Wisconsin should come close to covering this total by itself. The Badgers have maybe the top runner in the country, Jonathan Taylor, a decent quarterback in Alex Hornibrook and all five returning starters on their offensive line. Western Kentucky surrendered 30 or more points during each of its last six regular season games last year. The Badgers should have no problem wearing this defense down. The Hilltopppers are going with a more up-tempo offense with head coach Mike Sanford calling the plays. Sanford's strength is running an offense. Western Kentucky's ground attack should be much improved, too, with a deep set of runners and athletic fifth-year senior Drew Eckels at quarterback.
08-31-18	Red Sox v. White Sox +152	Top	1-6	Win	152	18 h 7 m	Show
White Sox plus $1.48 hosting Red Sox Michael Kopech isn't just the White Sox's best pitching prospect. He's one of the top ones in all of baseball. Kopech hasn't disappointed during his first two starts allowing just one run in eight innings. Now he draws the Red Sox at home. The Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games. That's the White Sox, who have compiled that record. The Red Sox actually have lost four of their past five road games. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi has been cold giving up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Eovaldi has been tagged for nine earned runs on 18 hits during his last two starts spanning only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox are down several players because of injury, including first baseman Mitch Moreland who isn't expected to play because of a sore knee.
08-30-18	Raiders v. Seahawks -154	Top	30-19	Loss	-154	62 h 10 m	Show
Seattle usually is good in preseason. But the Seahawks are 0-3 this preseason. Those losses have come by a combined 13 points, though. The Seahawks looked very good on both sides of the ball this past week at Minnesota losing, 21-20. Now the Seahawks host the Raiders in the final preseason game. The Raiders are 2-1 in preseason with both of their victories occurring at home. Seattle is 9-4 SU and ATS in its last 13 preseason games. The Raiders are 1-11 SU and ATS during their last 12 preseason road games. They have met the Seahawks in preseason during each of the last three years and lost each time. The Seahawks would like to get a win at home to avoid a winless preseason. Their offensive line and defense should provide the difference after playing so well last week. Seattle also has a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He may be the best punter during preseason. He has been tremendous both in length and in having his punts land inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Oakland is averaging only 14.6 points during preseason. The Raiders haven't scored more than 16 points in any game. Jon Gruden isn't risking Derek Carr behind an offensive line that still is trying to find its way. This leaves the Raiders with a pair of below average backup quarterbacks - Connor Cook and E.J. Manuel. Both are terrible and Gruden knows it. He's on record as saying his team may not have their real backup quarterback on the team yet.
08-30-18	New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 46.5		10-48	Loss	-110	46 h 36 m	Show
New Mexico State could manage only 135 yards - 93 of which came during a final touchdown drive in garbage time - and seven points in losing 29-7 at home to Wyoming this past Saturday. Now the Aggies go on the road to face Minnesota, a Big Ten team that ranked 36th in scoring defense last year giving up 22.8 points per game. I don't see the Aggies having nearly enough time to straighten out their offensive line woes especially while going against a better defense. Minnesota, though, doesn't figure to put up many points either. The Gophers are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Zack Annexstad. So don't expect the Gophers to come out throwing. They have a solid running back in senior Rodney Smith. He should get lots of carries, which will eat clock. New Mexico State's defense was much improved last season under second-year defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. The Aggies should be able to hold their own against Minnesota's bland offense. Weather could play a factor, too. The forecast is for wind in the 10 mph range with a chance of thunderstorms.
08-29-18	Tigers -101 v. Royals	Top	2-9	Loss	-101	12 h 19 m	Show
Kansas City is 2-9 the past 11 times Danny Duffy has pitched at home. Duffy has been horrible this season. I'm not buying the Royals opening as a favorite against the Tigers when Detroit has its best pitcher, Michael Fulmer, on the mound. Detroit has the superior late-inning relievers, too, and has scored more runs than the Royals. The Royals, in fact, have scored the fewest runs in the majors. Fulmer looked good in his last outing this past Friday. He held the White Sox scoreless for 4 2/3 innings throwing 77 pitches. That was his first start since the All-Star break. He had been out with an oblique strain. Fulmer should go longer in his second start back from the injury. The Tigers have buried Duffy in their two meetings this season. Duffy has given up 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings during two starts versus Detroit for an ERA of 11.32. Duffy doesn't have a good history against Detroit with a 7-10 career-mark and 4.63 ERA in 24 outings.
08-28-18	Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5	Top	7-8	Loss	-120	17 h 50 m	Show
Not only are the Red Sox far, far superior to the Marlins, but there is zero chance of them taking Miami lightly. That's because Boston just suffered its first sweep of the season losing three in a row on the road to Tampa Bay. Now the Red Sox are home and should be re-energized after being idle on Monday. I see this as a kill spot for the Red Sox so am going to lay 1 1/2 runs in order to knock down the high juice as the oddsmaker also envisions this as an easy win for Boston. The Red Sox are 48 games above .500. The Marlins are 19 games below .500. Boston is 39-14 the past 53 times they've met an opponent with a losing record. The Red Sox have beaten their opponent by multiple runs during 10 of their last 11 victories. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in seven of their past eight defeats. The pitching matchup is Jose Urena, who is 4-12 with a 4.50 ERA, against swingman Brian Johnson, who is at his best when starting. Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts. Boston has won eight of those 10 outings. Miami is 3-8 in Urena's past 11 road starts. Urena has pitched slightly worse on the road. He's going to be facing a DH and the top team in the majors in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez.
08-27-18	Nationals -110 v. Phillies	Top	5-3	Win	100	19 h 11 m	Show
The Nationals really need this game to keep their flickering playoff hopes somewhat alive. I see them getting the win here in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Zach Eflin. Both pitched poorly when they matched up five days ago. The Nationals won that game, 8-7, at home. Strasburg made that start having just come off the DL. He was rusty having not pitched since July 20. Following that game, Strasburg was quoted as saying, "It's a work in progress. I obviously missed a while, so I'll learn some things and take it into the next one (start)." Strasburg has pitched much better on the road where he is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA this season. He has a tremendous history pitching against the Phillies with a 10-2 mark, 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Strasburg's ERA at Citzens Band Park is 1.45 in eight career starts. The Nationals got their bats going on Sunday scoring a combined 14 runs during the final two innings against the Mets.The Nationals pounded Eflin for five runs, four of which were earned, on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings this past Wednesday. Eflin probably should not still be in the Phillies' starting rotation. He has a 5.59 ERA in his last seven starts. He has a 6.48 career ERA versus the Nationals in two starts. The Phillies are 7-12 in their last 19 games, including losing six of their last eight games.
08-26-18	Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5	Top	27-3	Win	100	34 h 57 m	Show
The Cowboys may have wanted to use this game as their dress rehersal, but offensive line injuries prevent that. Out are All-Pro center Travis Frederick and right guard Zach Martin. Right tackle La'el Collins may miss the game, too, after suffering an injury during Thursday's practice. Without those linemen, Jerry Jones won't risk his top skill position players. So don't expect to see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Key wide receivers Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin aren't expected to play either since they are still dealing with groin injuries. Dallas hasn't solved its tight end woes brought about by the retirement of Jason Witten and backup quarterback Cooper Rush has not played well. Rush is likely to play extended minutes. The Cowboys' third-string quarterback is Mike White. He could see action, too. The Cowboys figure to go vanilla with their priority finding out who is best suited to be their No. 3 running back. So not only is Elliott likely to sit, but so is second-string running back Rod Smith. That means a lot of handoffs from Rush to either Bo Scarbrough or Darius Jackson as they battle for the No. 3 running back role. Rush has thrown just one touchdown pass in preseason. The Cowboys are averaging 17 points in their two preseason games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of just 16 points in their two preseason games under new head coach Steve Wilks, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Panthers. The Cardinals aren't likely to do anything fancy on offense either. They don't want to risk brittle starter Sam Bradford. The Cowboys could mount a fierce outside pass rush with Randy Gregory joining DeMarcus Lawrence. Arizona did want to get a look at rookie Josh Rosen, but the No. 1 draft choice suffered a bruised thumb on his throwing hand in practice this week so he may not play. If Rosen doesn't play that opens up extensive minutes for Mike Glennon, who is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. It could also mean time for fourth-string undrafted rookie Charles Kanoff.
08-26-18	White Sox -111 v. Tigers		7-2	Win	100	4 h 3 m	Show
Surprised to see the White Sox a road favorite? Don't be. Michael Kopech is pitching for Chicago. The righthander might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. Kopech's big league debut was cut short after two scoreless innings against the Twins this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. Kopech had four strikeouts in that brief appearance. Kopech had 174 strikeouts in 128 1/3 innings in the minors before getting the call up. The Tigers have scored fewer than four runs in four of their last five games. They rank last in on-base percentage versus righty starters. The White Sox are playing well winning eight of their last 11. They draw Jordan Zimmerman, who has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 9 1/3 innings against the White Sox this season. Detroit is 5-12 in Zimmerman's past 17 home starts.
08-25-18	Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 58	Top	43-34	Loss	-107	20 h 14 m	Show
Opening college football games, especially in this Week 0 before the first full week kicks off next weekend, can be tricky. This matchup, though, projects to be lower-scoring that the oddsmaker anticipates. Hawaii averaged just 17.6 points in its last five road games. The Under has cashed in its last six Mountain West Conference games. The Rainbow Warriors are going with a run-and-shoot type of offense featuring lots of quick-hitting short passes. This isn't the best offense to play an Under on. However, Hawaii has a lot of inexperience. The Warriors are going to go through growing pains with this offense. They aren't to be in sync this early in the season. Hawaii is breaking in a new quarterback after Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State. The Warriors also lost Dylan Collie to BYU. Collie led Hawaii in receiving last year. The Rainbow Warriors' attack may not have its full concentration either because of the damage Hurricane Lane is causing in Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors also have to deal with a four-hour time difference and higher elevation. Note, too, the game is being played on a grass field, which is slower than a turf field. Colorado State has good linebackers and its secondary has some key returners. Where the Rams took a massive hit was in their offense. Gone are three of their best players in school history - quarterback Nick Stevens, receiver Michael Gallup and running back Dalyn Dawkins. Colorado State lost four of its top five wide receivers and is breaking in three new offensive line starters. So I envision both offenses being off-kilter. If Colorado State were to grab a big lead, I could see the Rams calling off the dogs and playing very conservatively knowing they meet in-state rival Colorado on the road next Friday.
08-25-18	Braves v. Marlins +154		1-3	Win	154	18 h 57 m	Show
Anibal Sanchez has turned back the hands of time. After posting ERA's of 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41, the 34-year-old Sanchez appeared washed-up. He has rejuvenated his career with the Braves this season, but is beginning to slow down. Sanchez has a 3.13 ERA on the season, but in his last six starts his ERA is 4.22. The Marlins have proven extremely tough at home with lefty Wei-Yin Chen on the mound winning 14 of the past 20 times he has started at Marlins Park. The Braves have been a great story going 72-56. However, they have a losing record versus southpaw starters. Chen has been terrible on the road with a 1-6 mark and 9.35 ERA, but great at home with a 2.05 ERA. He has a 2.08 ERA in three starts this month. Atlanta has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last nine games. The Braves also have dropped their last five Saturday games.
08-24-18	Lions +3 v. Bucs	Top	33-30	Win	105	19 h 4 m	Show
Being the better team doesn't always matter when it's preseason. Unless that team has motivation, which the Lions do here against the Buccaneers. Detroit is 0-2 and didn't look good in its last game, a 30-17 home loss to the Giants as 3-point favorites last week. The Lions need a victory. So does Matt Patricia, Detroit's first-year head coach. So the Lions are pointing to this game even more than the normal dress rehersal. Not only are the Lions going to play their starters for at least the first half, but they also scouted the Buccaneers. This is something they didn't do for their first two preseason games. Matthew Stafford has looked good in camp. However, he's played only three series - 13 snaps - during preseason so far. He could play into the third quarter in this game. Patricia has made it clear this is the Lions' dress rehersal game and that he won't be playing his starters next week during the Lions' final preseason game. Tampa Bay has nothing to prove. The Buccaneers are 2-0 winning both of their preseason games on the road. Tampa Bay has been horrible at home in preseason going 2-8 SU and ATS the past five years. The Buccaneers have a cluster injury situation in their offensive line. They didn't have four of their top six offensive linemen practice Wednesday. Left tackle Donovan Smith definitely won't play due to a sprained knee. Jameis Winston has played in both preseason games throwing a combined 31 passes. The Bucs might want to limit his snaps here especially since Winston is suspened for the first two games of the regular season.
08-24-18	Indians -1.5 v. Royals		4-5	Loss	-130	17 h 17 m	Show
The Royals are 38-90. The Orioles and them are the worst teams in baseball by far. Cleveland versus Kansas City is an epic mismatch worth laying 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Indians. Cleveland is coming on having shored up its one weak spot, the bullpen. The Indians are 15-6 this month. Kansas City is 5-17 in August, losers of five in a row. The Indians own massive edges against the Royals in every facet, including starting pitching in a matchup of Mike Clevinger versus Brad Keller. Clevinger is better than any Kansas City pitcher yet he's just the No. 4 starter for the powerful Indians. Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four August starts. He is 1-0 versus the Royals this season with a 1.80 ERA. Keller is a better reliever than starter. The Royals average the fewest runs per game in baseball and their bullpen is last in ERA. Cleveland has won 17 of its last 22 road games. The Indians swept the Royals in Kansas City when they visited them last month. The Royals are 18-45 during their last 63 home contests. (Stephen Nover's free Friday Play) White Sox at Tigers Under 9 minus $1.20 First off, we're not talking about two good offenses here. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They are minus Jose Abreau, who leads them in homers, RBI's and runs. The Tigers are even worse offensively rating 26th in runs. Detroit has its best starter going, Michael Fulmer. He's making his first start since going on the DL July 20 because of an oblique injury. Fulmer looked good in two minor league rehab starts not allowing a run in six innings while striking out 11. Fulmer's fastball was clocked at a season-high 98 mph. The under has cashed in six of Fulmer's last seven big league starts. Fulmer is backed by two good backend relief pitchers, Joe Jimenez and closer Shane Greene, who has 27 saves. Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez has made four starts against the Tigers this season and has a respectable 3.24 ERA against them. The Tigers cobbled a starting lineup against the White Sox on Thursday that had five players batting less than .234. Both the weather forecast and scheduled home plate umpire are strong points for a low-scoring game, too. The wind will be blowing in at 10-12 at Comerica Park, which is a good pitcher's park. Adam Hamari is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 32 of the past 49 times (65%) the last two years when he's been the home plate umpi
08-23-18	Edmonton v. Hamilton -2.5		24-25	Loss	-115	52 h 52 m	Show
The spot sets up well for Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are off a bye and catch Edmonton off a 40-24 home win against Montreal this past Saturday night game. The Eskimos are at Calgary for their next game, which is a huge look-ahead spot. Edmonton has failed to cover five of the past six times when going against a sub .500 foe. The Tiger-Cats are better than their record ranking No. 2 in the league in both offense and defensive yards. They have covered seven of their last nine games following a loss.
08-23-18	Royals v. Rays OVER 7	Top	3-4	Push	0	18 h 4 m	Show
An opening total of 7 in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Tyler Glasnow is just too low. Duffy is coming off the DL to make the start. He's been sidelined by left shoulder impingement. The Royals are better off without the veteran lefty. Duffy has a 4.90 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He's nothing but an innings-eater at this stage. Duffy wasn't sharp either before going on the DL allowing 12 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings during his two August starts. Glasnow has yet to reach his potential. He's mainly struggled and has a 4.10 ERA. He had a 7.69 ERA with the Pirates last season, which included 13 starts. Glasnow has only pitched past the fifth inning once this season. He is coming off a season-high pitch count. The Rays' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating.
08-22-18	Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals	Top	7-8	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
Maybe it was going 2-5 during their last road trip, which concluded this past Sunday. Whatever the reasons, the Nationals have hoisted up the White Flag. They did that by trading Daniel Murphy for a prospect and losing Matt Adams on waivers. The Phillies are superior to Washington. This isn't just opinion. Philadelphia has won five more games than the Nationals and lost six fewer games. They are in second-place by two games in the NL East and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Nationals. Yet Washington is a huge favorite because of home field and a pitching matchup of Zach Eflin versus Stephen Strasburg. The Phillies would be 14-3 (82%) in Eflin's starts this season if given 1 1/2 runs. So I'm taking the Phillies with some insurance by backing them on the run line. I don't fear Strasburg. This marks his first start in more than a month and just his second appearance since June 8. Strasburg has pitched far worse at home going 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts.
08-21-18	Cardinals v. Dodgers -170		5-2	Loss	-170	21 h 23 m	Show
In Ryu we trust especially when pitching at Dodger Stadium. The Cardinals are a hot club, but they are at a severe disadvantage in this matchup as evidenced by the large lay price on the Dodgers. Hyun-Jin Ryu made his first start since May 2 this past Wednesday. He shut out San Francisco on three hits in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks. That came at home where Ryu pitches his best. He is unscored upon at home this season in 19 innings. Ryu has a career 0.92 WHIP versus the Cardinals in three appearances. The Dodgers' bullpen received a huge lift with Kenley Jansen coming off the DL way ahead of schedule. Fed up with erratic Luke Weaver, the Cardinals are going with rookie Daniel Poncedeleon in this matchup. Poncedeleon was ranked as just the Cardinals' No. 30 minor league prospect. His ceiling is that of a fifth starter, or long reliever. He faces an LA squad that entered this week ranked No. 2 in the majors in home runs. The Dodgers have seven players with 15 or more homers, including six with 18 or more home runs.
08-21-18	Padres v. Rockies -167	Top	4-3	Loss	-167	20 h 54 m	Show
The Rockies are hot and rested having won eight of their last nine. They should be refreshed to open a six-game homestand having been idle Monday. Colorado is 20-7 in its past 27 home games. San Diego is 29 games below .500. The Padres have dropped six of their last seven and are 6-14 in their last 20 visits to Coors Field. The pitching matchup heavily favors Colorado, too, in battle of lefties with Robbie Erlin opposing Tyler Anderson. San Diego is 3-9 in Erlin's last 12 starts. The Rockes are 12-2 the past 14 times they've gone against a southpaw starter. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 1.35 ERA during his past five home starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts versus San Diego this season. The Padres have dropped 26 of 38 games when facing a lefty starter.
08-20-18	Indians +101 v. Red Sox	Top	5-4	Win	101	21 h 6 m	Show
There is only one American League pitcher comparable to Corey Kluber. He pitches for Boston, but he's not Rick Porcello. It's Porcello, not injured Chris Sale, who opposes Kluber making the Indians a strong value play at this pick'em type opening price. Cleveland enters this marquee series winning seven of its last eight. Boston was shut out at home by Tampa Bay on Sunday. Normally I'm not looking to go against the Red Sox. But this is a huge pitching mismatch. Kluber and Porcello each have 15 victories. That is where the similarity ends, though. Kluber has a chance to win the Cy Young Award for a second straight year. He has a 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Porcello has a 4.04 ERA, which becomes 4.57 when he pitches at Fenway Park. The current Indians roster is batting a cumulative .333 lifetime versus Porcello. Cleveland is 22-8 in Kluber's past 30 road starts. The Indians have revamped their bullpen greatly improving their depth with Andrew Miller healthy and newcomers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber on board. The Indians can match any of Boston's top offensive players with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.
08-19-18	Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres	Top	4-3	Loss	-121	14 h 53 m	Show
The Padres are giving rookie pitcher Brett Kennedy a third chance. I don't think that's a good idea based on Kennedy's first two big league starts. Those came earlier this month against the Brewers and Angels. The combined results were 11 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in nine innings giving Kennedy a fat 11.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks have won 23 of their last 34 road games and are going with Zack Grienke. Arizona is 30-10 during Greinke's past 40 starts versus sub .500 opponents. Greinke has dominated the Padres with an 11-2 record and 2.10 ERA in 21 career starts. He held them to one run in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 27. Greinke has a 2.77 daytime ERA this season. The Diamondbacks have won by more than one run in eight of their last nine victories. Getting an extra at bat being the road team is a plus and the Padres have been horrible at Petco Park losing 21 of the past 27 times there.
08-19-18	Brewers v. Cardinals -116		2-1	Loss	-116	12 h 54 m	Show
The Cardinals have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games. So, why not ride the Cardinals especially at this low lay price? Why not indeed. St. Louis is playing its finest ball taking 14 of their last 17. The Brewers are in a tailspin, banged-up and have bullpen issues. Cardinals starter John Gant is proving dependable giving up only two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. He has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 3.83 road ERA and has a terrible history versus St. Louis going 0-7 with a 6.90 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts.
08-18-18	Brewers v. Cardinals -133	Top	2-7	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
The Cardinals are on fire winning nine of their last 10 games and 13 of their past 16. They have their best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Brewers are banged-up, have dropped nine of their last 10 NL Central Division games and are pitching journeyman southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers are the fifth different team Miley has pitched for in the last five years. St. Louis is 7-1 the past eight times facing a lefty starter. Miley has pitched surprisingly well for Milwaukee, but appears to be tailing off. He has given up five earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. During this time frame, Miley has yielded 11 hits and four walks. The Cardinals have a good vibe and momentum. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Mikolas has proven himself to be an elite pitcher, one of the most consistent in baseball. He hasn't given up more than four runs in a game all season. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. St. Louis is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
08-18-18	Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9.5		7-5	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Some pitchers just aren't good on the road. That's certainly been the case this year for Miami's Wei-Yin Chen. He has a 10.27 away ERA. Opponents are batting .350 against him on the road. The Marlins' bullpen has imploded so Chen can't expect much help there. The Marlins have surrendered 38 runs in their last five games, an average of 7.6 runs. The Nationals are averaging 5.2 runs per game in their last seven contests. They've seen Chen twice this season. Chen has a 6.17 ERA versus Washington this year. The Marlins could do damage, too, facing rookie Jefry Rodriguez, a late fill-in for Tommy Milone. Ted Barrett is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time this season in the 22 games Barrett has been behind the plate.
08-17-18	Bills v. Browns OVER 38.5	Top	19-17	Loss	-109	85 h 6 m	Show
It's somewhat below-the-radar, but one early preseason story worth noting is potential improvement in the Bills offense thanks to new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Buffalo's offense was stale and caveman-like last season when Rick Dennison was the offensive coordinator. Daboll could be the next innovative offensive mind based on his use of formations, designs and personnel groupings to get a stagnant Bills offense, which could have the least talent of any in the NFL, to look sharp during Week 1 of the preseason last week. The Bills defeated the Panthers, 28-23. Nathan Peterman and A.J. McCarron combined for 16-of-20 passing for 235 yards. Rookie Josh Allen displayed his big arm and wasn't afraid to go deep. The Bills piled up 430 total yards. Yes, the Panthers played a vanilla game not showing the Bills anything fancy on defense. But the Bills are one of the few teams in the NFL with a wide open starting quarterback battle. Daboll has to find out who his No. 1 man is going to be so expect the Bills to continue to open up their playbook and attack downfield. Cleveland has two good quarterbacks to use, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Expect Mayfield to continue to see a lot of action. The first overall pick in the draft played well in the Browns' opening preseason victory against the Giants completing 11 of 20 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are deep in receiving talent and the Bills are weak at linebacker, both starting-wise and depth-wise.
08-17-18	Giants v. Reds -115		1-2	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
The Reds aren't very good. We know that. But the Giants are 27-35 on the road and have a starting pitching disadvantage here. Yet the Giants opened as a favorite. I say the wrong team is favored. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is pitching his finest ball. He's given up just one run during his past two starts spanning 14 innings. He has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. A big key for DeSlafani is learning to become a pitcher and not just a thrower. He's done an excellent job of mixing his pitches in his last two starts. At first I wasn't going to get involved in this game. But that changed when Dereck Rodriguez was scratched and Casey Kelly was named as his replacement. Rodriguez landed on the DL with a hamstring strain caused during that ridiculous altercation this past Tuesday in the Giants-Dodgers game when Yasiel Puig and Nick Hundley went at it causing a bench-clearing incident. Kelly isn't big-league starting material. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Triple-A Sacramento this season. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings in relief for the Giants this season. The Reds should have an excellent scouting report on him because Pat Kelly, Casey's father, is a bench coach for the Reds. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 away games when going against a foe with a losing home record. They also have dropped the past four games played in Cincinnati.
08-16-18	Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres	Top	5-1	Win	100	20 h 18 m	Show
This price is low enough to back the Diamondbacks, who have 20 fewer losses than the rebuilding Padres. Arizona has won 21 of its last 31 road games. The Diamondbacks come in with a rested bullpen having been idle on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks have also won 35 of the past 52 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Arizona starter Clay Buchholz has been very good going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. The righthander holds an edge against Jacob Nix, who is making only his second big league start. San Diego is 7-20 in its last 27 home games. The Padres have dropped 11 of their last 12 home games when meeting a foe with a winning road mark.
08-16-18	Steelers v. Packers -5.5	Top	34-51	Win	100	22 h 45 m	Show
This isn't just a normal preseason game for the Packers. It's different because Aaron Rodgers is expected to see action. He hasn't played in preseason since 2014. But Mike McCarthy needs to get Rodgers in sync with his many new receivers, including tight end Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is out for the Steelers. He's in concussion protocol. Even if Rodgers plays only one or two series, he's very live to put up points against a vanilla Steelers defense that won't be playing all of their starters. Green Bay holds an edge in backup quarterbacks. The Packers' backup QB's combined for 356 passing yards in a 31-17 home win against the Titans last week. Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer are wagering a spirited battle for the No. 2 spot behind Rodgers. They both received plenty of NFL experience last season in starting roles. Pittsburgh backup quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs have never taken a snap in a real NFL game. Landry Jones, last year's backup, is a stiff and in danger of being cut. The Packers have home-field and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have a strong history in preseason. Pittsburgh is 7-15 SU and ATS the past five years during preseason.
08-15-18	Pirates v. Twins UNDER 8.5	Top	4-6	Loss	-114	4 h 41 m	Show
Chris Archer has the potential to dominate a weak Twins offense. Jose Berrios has dominated at Target Field going 8-2 with a 2.95 ERA. The Twins had been held to four runs or fewer in seven straight eight games until scoring five runs last night. The Pirates are averaging three runs per game in their last three games. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's one of the top Under umps in baseball. The Under has cashed in 68 percent of his last 71 games behind the plate.
08-14-18	Nationals v. Cardinals -103	Top	4-6	Win	100	18 h 34 m	Show
The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter.
08-13-18	Nationals v. Cardinals -128	Top	6-7	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there.
08-12-18	Nationals -125 v. Cubs		3-4	Loss	-125	8 h 44 m	Show
I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. He's in great form, too, having allowed five earned runs in his last four starts spanning 27 innings. Scherzer has a 35-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. It's a bargain to get him at such a low lay price. Scherzer's task is made easier with the Cubs' best hitter, Kris Bryant, out with a shoulder injury. The Nationals have won a staggering 71 percent of Scherzer's last 72 starts. Cubs starter Cole Hamels is past his prime. Hamels is making his third start for Chicago. The 34-year-old has been sharp in his first two outings for the Cubs, but those games were against the Pirates and Royals. I don't see Hamels stepping up enough to match Scherzer.
08-12-18	Pirates v. Giants -106	Top	3-4	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
It's way past thinking Dereck Rodriguez is some novelty item being the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. The younger Rodriguez very well could win Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. Rodriguez and the Giants are very tough at AT&T Park. Rodriguez is 3-0 at home with a 1.99 ERA. He has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last eight starts. San Francisco is 33-26 at home this season and 7-2 in Rodriguez's last nine starts. Opposing Rodriguez is Joe Musgrove, who is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in day games this season. The price is right to back Rodriguez and the Giants.
08-11-18	Montreal v. Ottawa -14		17-24	Loss	-110	56 h 9 m	Show
Montreal has become a near auto-fade in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes are by far the worst team in the league. Montreal not only doesn't win, it doesn't cover spreads going 5-17 ATS in its past 22 games. I don't see that changing in this matchup versus Ottawa. The Redblacks have a high-powered offense that should overpower Montreal's last-ranked defense, which surrenders 34..6 points a game. The Redblacks are in a kill mood after blowing a 38-14 second-half lead against Toronto last week, losing 42-41. The Redblacks are 5-1 ATS following a loss. They don't figure to letup, which can be a danger when laying a two-touchdown spread. Johnny Manziel had a horrible debut for Montreal last week. He wasn't ready having practiced just four times. The Alouettes were buried, 50-11, by Hamilton. Montreal is bad in all three phases - offense, defense and special teams. The Redblacks have had little trouble with Montreal in the past covering 10 of the past 11 times, including winning and covering the past six meetings.
08-11-18	Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 50		17-24	Loss	-112	56 h 8 m	Show
Montreal has the worst defense in the Canadain Football League - and it is getting worse not better. The Alouettes have given up 94 points in their last two games. They lack the talent and desire to keep Ottawa in check. The Redblacks are coming off a brutal 42-41 loss to Toronto in which they blew a 24-point third quarter lead. This should assure that the Redblacks keep on the attack the entire time against Montreal. The Alouettes are going to encounter difficulty covering Ottawa wide receivers Diontae Spencer and Brad Sinopoli. This will be Johnny Manziel's second start for Montreal. He brings a big-play dimension to the team - and also a pick-six dimension with his gunslinging. It should be encouraging for Montreal's floundering offense, though, that the Argos scored on six of their seven second-half possessions during their comeback victory against the Redblacks.
08-11-18	Diamondbacks -138 v. Reds		3-6	Loss	-138	20 h 36 m	Show
Robbie Ray is having his problems at Chase Field, but he's been very strong on the road with a 2.57 ERA in seven away starts. Ray, a lefty, is holding road foes to a .195 batting average. Arizona has won 19 of its last 27 road games. Cincinnati is 8-20 during its past 28 home games versus a southpaw starter. Reds starter Matt Harvey has been terrible since the All-Star break with a 10.66 ERA in three starts. Harvey hasn't finished six innings during any of his past six starts
08-10-18	A's -109 v. Angels		3-4	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
The A's are 6-1 in their last seven games and are a much better team than the Angels. Southpaw Brett Anderson is in good form for Oakland, while Angels starter Felix Pena is not. Pena is 1-3 with a 4.97 ERA. The A's hold a vastly superior bullpen. The Angels have lost 17 of the past 24 times when facing a lefty starter. They have been without Mike Trout, who is questionable here.
08-10-18	Indians -138 v. White Sox		0-1	Loss	-138	19 h 50 m	Show
The rebuilding White Sox are on pace to lose 103 games. They are 21-36 at home and likely to lose to the Indians. Cleveland is 8-2 versus Chicago this season winning those games by an average of `nearly four runs per game. I'm a fan of Indians rookie starter Shane Bieber. He's 6-2 with 58 strikeouts in 57 innings. The White Sox have the disadvantage of never having gone against him. Cleveland is 7-3 in Bieber's starts. Opposing Bieber is southpaw Carlos Rodon. The Indians are 18-12 versus lefty starters. The Indians have already seen Rodon twice this season. Rodon has a 4.76 ERA in his two starts this year against the Indians. The White Sox were idle on Thursday. That's not necessarily a good thing, though, as Chicago is 13-38 following an off day.
08-10-18	Mariners v. Astros -1.5	Top	5-2	Loss	-105	19 h 49 m	Show
Even beating Justin Verlander on Thursday night, the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 road games. I see the Astros rebounding strong tonight. So does the oddsmaker making Gerrit Cole a monster favorite against Mike Leake. The Astros should bury the Mariners in this spot so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to cut down on the heavy juice. Houston has won by two or more runs in nine of its last 11 victories. Cole has established himself as an elite pitcher since coming to the Astros. Houstin is 17-6 in Cole's last 23 starts. Cole has surrendered two or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. Leake hasn't won since June 23. He has a 4.28 ERA in his last seven starts, which include a 5-2 loss to the Astros on July 31. So this is a quick turnaround for the Astros to face Leake again. Star shortsop Carlos Correa is expected to come off the DL on Friday to play for the Astros, which would be huge since Houston remains without injured second baseman Jose Altuve.
08-09-18	Dodgers v. Rockies +123	Top	8-5	Loss	-100	19 h 24 m	Show
The Rockies are very tough at Coors Field where they have won 17 of the past 22 times. They have a favorable spot, too, with LA having played late Wednesday night against the A's in Oakland while the Rockies played a home day game Wednesday. Dodger starter Ross Stripling hasn't been the same pitcher he was before the All-Star Game. He has a 9.35 ERA in two starts following All-Star break. Colorado starter Tyler Anderson has a respectable 3.64 ERA at Coors this season. The Dodgers have scored only 10 runs during their last five games for an average of two runs per game.
08-08-18	Red Sox -139 v. Blue Jays	Top	10-5	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
The Red Sox dominate baseball with an 80-34 record and they dominate the Blue Jays beating them 24 of the past 33 times, including going 11-3 versus them this season. Boston has had little difficulty either at Rogers Centre winning 16 of the past 20 times there. You usually can't go wrong backing the Red Sox especially when they aren't overinflated which is the case here. The Blue Jays are in a bad state with rumors that their manager John Gibbons will be let go. The pitching matchup is Brian Johnson versus Mike Hauschild and Boston owns a huge bullpen edge. Johnson has a 2.57 ERA in seven starts this season. The Blue Jays picked up Hauschild after the Astros cut him on July 30. Hauschild had a 4.88 ERA in 19 minor legue starts this season pitching for Houston's Triple A team. He has a 6.43 big league ERA in five appearances. He certainly doesn't project to have success against a potent Boston lineup that leads the majors in runs and batting average.
08-07-18	Padres v. Brewers -1.5	Top	11-5	Loss	-100	18 h 20 m	Show
I see the Brewers taking care of business at home in a big way against the rebuilding Padres, losers of nine of their last 11 games. Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 16 home games and gotten stronger offensively and in the bullpen at the trade deadline. The Brewers are going with their most consistent starter here, righthander Chase Anderson. He's pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts. Anderson has given up up two or fewer runs in each of his starts during this eight-game span. San Diego is 7-20 the past 27 times going against a righty starter. The Padres also have dropped 17 of their last 25 away matchups. Clayton Richard will be on the hill for San Diego. He has been terrible away from Petco Park with a 6.10 road ERA. Richard is coming off a July in which he was 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in six starts. The Padres gutted their bullpen at the trade deadline and Richard has only gone at least six innings in one of his last five starts.
08-06-18	Cubs v. Royals OVER 9	Top	3-1	Loss	-110	14 h 7 m	Show
The Cubs rank in the top four in both runs and batting average. They are going to an American League ballpark where the DH is in play. Chicago also gets to face one of the worst starters, Jake Junis, and a terrible Royals bullpen. Junis hasn't been good in more than two months. His ERA since June is 7.33. He has surrendered 26 homers in 20 starts this season. The Royals' offense has picked up. Kansas City is averaging five runs per game during its last five games and has scored four or more runs in 17 of its past 21 games. Chicago starter Cole Hamels is well past his prime. This will be his second start with the Cubs. Obviously pumped up, he pitched well in his first start for Chicago against the Pirates. I don't think he will pitch nearly as well this time around. Before his last start, Hamels had yielded 21 earned runs in his previous four outings spanning 17 innings. The Cubs' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating and their closer, Brandon Morrow, is on the DL. The conditions are good, too, to produce a lot of runs with high humidity and the wind blowing out at 10-12 mph.
08-05-18	Yankees +121 v. Red Sox	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	19 h 2 m	Show
The Red Sox are going for a four-game sweep of the Yankees. I don't see the prideful Yankees getting swept on national television in a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus southpaw David Price. Tanaka hasn't allowed a run during his past two starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up just six hits with 17 strikeouts during this span. This was part of a great July for Tanaka, who posted a 1.75 ERA in his four July starts. He is 6-0 on the road this season with the Yankees winning eight of his last 11 away matchups. New York is 20-8 in Tanaka's last 28 overall starts. The Red Sox are down three key infielders - Rafael Devers, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia. The Yankees have won 24 of their 31 games versus lefty starters this year. The Yankees have taken care of Price in their two meetings against him. Price has yielded 12 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, including surrendering a staggering six homers.
08-05-18	Braves -119 v. Mets		5-4	Win	100	12 h 23 m	Show
I think this is a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. Yes, the Mets defeated Atlanta, 3-0 on Saturday, but that was with Zach Wheeler. Now the Mets drop down to rookie Corey Oswalt, a fill-in for injured Steven Matz. The Braves had outscored the Mets, 27-5, at Citi Field in going 5-0 before yesterday's game. Atlanta is 11-4 versus the Mets this season. The Mets are in clear rebuild mode and definitely are fade material whenever Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler aren't pitching. Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has a good history against the Mets with with a 9-6 lifetime record and 2.33 ERA. He's held the Mets to two runs on 11 hits in 21 innings this season for an 0.86 ERA. The Mets rank 30th in batting average. They haven't scored more than four runs in their last eight games.
08-04-18	BC v. Calgary UNDER 50.5	Top	18-27	Win	100	56 h 52 m	Show
Calgary is the best team in the Canadian Football League and a huge reason for that is a defense that is on pace to give up the fewest opponent offensive touchdowns in CFL history. The Stampeders are holding foes to less than 12 points per game. I don't see BC denting this dominant defense. The Lions are third from the bottom in scoring. They haven't broken the 22-point barrier in four of their five games. Travis Lulay has been BC's starting quarterback the past two games replacing an ineffective Jonathon Jennings. Lulay has moved the team better, but he's past his prime, on the road and hasn't faced a defense close to this caliber. The teams combined to average just 39 points during their two meetings last season with Calgary winning, 21-17, and 27-13 at home. BC and Calgary each have a strong recent history of going Under in August. The under is 6-0-1 in the Lions' last seven August games while Calgary has gone below the total in seven of its past eight August matchups.
08-04-18	Angels v. Indians -1.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
The buy sign is back on for Corey Kluber, who was dealing with a right knee injury going into All-Star break. Kluber was shaky in his first outing following the All-Star Game, but returned to his dominant ways during his last start holding the Tigers to one run in 7 1/3 innings this past Sunday. The oddsmaker is sold on Kluber being back healthy with a huge price. So the way to go around this is taking the Indians minus 1 1/2 on the run line. Cleveland's past six victories have all been by at least two runs. Kluber will catch a break if superstar Mike Trout has to sit out a third straight game because of a bruised right wrist. The Angels are going with rookie Felix Pena. He was bombed during his last start giving up seven earned runs while retiring only one batter against Seattle this past Sunday. The Angels have lost in 20 of their last 28 road games. The Indians are 65-31 in their last 96 home games.
08-03-18	Tigers +168 v. A's	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	21 h 1 m	Show
Brett Anderson should not be this high of a favorite. Even against the Tigers. Detroit is underrated especially against southpaws like Anderson. The Tigers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and are 16-13 against lefties on the season. It's not a fluke the Tigers are three games above .500 versus southpaws. They have the highest batting average in the majors when facing left-handed starting pitching at .274. Anderson has made just one home start for Oakland this year. That was against the Astros on May 7 and it was a disaster. The A's lost 16-2 as Anderson was shelled for nine runs, seven of which were earned, on 10 hits in just three innings. Anderson has a 5.46 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in seven games, including six starts. Anderson's ERA on the season is 5.55, which is considerably higher than Tigers starter Blaine Hardy, whose ERA is 3.61. Hardy's career ERA versus the A's is 3.14. He earned a victory against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday allowing one run on four hits in five innings. The Tigers shouldn't lack for motivation having been swept by Oakland at home in June.
08-02-18	Giants +158 v. Diamondbacks	Top	8-1	Win	158	21 h 13 m	Show
This sure looks like a 4-3 type of game so I'm very interested in taking a huge 'dog price with Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. Arizona starter Zack Greinke is having a strong season. But his ERA isn't that much lower than Bumgarner's at 2.96 compared to 3.06. So this really comes down to a value play. Bumgarner has a 2.44 ERA in his last seven starts, holding batters to a .191 average in this span. The Giants enter this game with their confidence up having swept the Padres on the road.
08-01-18	Cubs -112 v. Pirates	Top	9-2	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
Nick Kingham and his 4.80 ERA isn't likely to be in the Pirates' starting rotation too much longer with Chris Archer coming on board. I'm going to lay a short road price with the better team, Cubs, and what I see as a rejuvenated Cole Hamels. Hamels gets a repreive coming to the Cubs from the 46-63 Rangers. Hamels had a bad July. He said his arm is fine. His problem was mechanics, which he said have been straighten out now. Hamels should do better in the National League. The four-time All-Star is past his prime, but he still knows how to pitch and his fastball still has zip as evidenced by 114 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. Hamels last faced the Pirates two years ago. He has a 1.22 career ERA in five starts versus Pittsburgh. Kingham is off a bad start against the lowly Mets where he yielded six runs in three-plus innings on seven hits and four walks during a 12-6 home loss this past Thursday.
07-31-18	Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	0-6	Win	120	10 h 34 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for the Diamondbacks so I'm fine laying 1 1/2 runs with them. Texas has a little win streak going, but the Rangers aren't going to keep that up. They are pitching Bartolo Colon and their shaky bullpen just got much worse with closer Keone Kela traded to the Pirates. Kela was by far their best relief pitcher. The Rangers' focus may not all be there with this being the final day of the trade deadline. Texas also returns home after this game. Colon is an ageless wonder being 45 and fat. However, he's hitting the wall with a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts. The Diamondbacks have Zack Godley going. He pitches much better at Chase Field. Godley usually gets solid run support, too. He's among the wins leaders with 11. Arizona fortified its lineup trding for Eduardo Escobar and with Steven Souza Jr. getting healthy.
07-30-18	Astros -108 v. Mariners	Top	0-2	Loss	-108	21 h 27 m	Show
The Astros head into this important AL West Division series in a bad state of mind. Houston has lost four games in a row for the first time this season. Perhaps the Astros took the Rangers, who are last in the division, too lightly and were swept by them at home. Whatever. They certainly won't do that against the Mariners and they have a strong pitcher going to make sure of that in Gerrit Cole. Sometimes it is better to go on the road. That could be the case here. Houston is 36-16 in its last 52 away games. The Astros have won in eight of their past last nine games in Seattle. Cole is 10-2 with a 2.54 ERA. He trumps James Paxton, who has thrown less than an inning during the last three weeks because of a back problems.
07-29-18	Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9	Top	8-5	Loss	-115	13 h 44 m	Show
There is a reason why the Under has cashed in 11 of Marco Gonzales' last 13 starts. That reason is he's a good pitcher. The Angels have found that out first-hand as Gonzales is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts versus Los Angeles this season. The Mariners have dominant late inning relief to back Gonzales. Angels starter Felix Pena has a 2.73 ERA in six starts this year. The Under has cashed during his past four starts. The Mariners have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 13 games. Both pitchers should be helped by this rare afternoon start time in LA. Late afternoon shadows are known to bother hitters at Angels Stadium. Note, too, that Lance Barksdale is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's strong for the Under. The Under has cashed 63 percent of the time during the last four years Barksdale has been behind the plate spanning a sampling of 88 games.
07-29-18	Dodgers -138 v. Braves		1-4	Loss	-138	3 h 31 m	Show
I cashed with the Dodgers Saturday and see no reason to get off them today in a matchup of Ross Stripling versus fading Sean Newcomb, who is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Newcomb also has a 4.21 ERA in day games. Stripling has a fantastic 114-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is proving to be one of the Dodgers' most reliable pitchers. LA is 4-0 in his last four outings. The Braves are 5-13 in their last 18 games.
07-28-18	Dodgers -124 v. Braves	Top	5-1	Win	100	19 h 45 m	Show
These teams are going in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-4 in their last 13 games and are back to being the team to beat in the National League after acquiring Manny Machado. LA is 21-9 during its past 30 road games. The Braves are 5-12 in their last 17 games. They haven't been competitive during their last three games losing by a combined 15 runs. The pitching matchup is Alex Wood versus Max Fried. Wood has a 2.95 ERA in his last seven starts. He has won his past five decisions. Fried has a 3.92 ERA. He has made only three starts this season and hasn't pitched since July 5 due to a blister. The Braves have a huge gap in their bullpen with closer Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury.
07-27-18	Rangers v. Astros -1.5	Top	11-2	Loss	-130	19 h 11 m	Show
Yovani Gallardo was a high strikeout solid pitcher for the Brewers during his prime. However, Gallardo is well past his prime now, barely hanging on. The Rangers are the sixth team he is pitching for in the last five years. Gallardo had a 5.42 ERA in 2016. His ERA was 5.72 last year and it is 7.18 this season. The pattern clearly is there. Father time has caught up with him. The Rangers can't bail Gallardo out with their terrible bullpen either. Houston ranks in the top five in runs and batting average. The Astros have a hot Dallas Keuchel going for them, too. Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA during his last seven starts. Houston has dominated at home with Keuchel going 40-18 during his last 58 starts at Minute Maid Park.
07-26-18	Brewers v. Giants -108	Top	7-5	Loss	-108	20 h 12 m	Show
Dereck Rodriguez is a lot more than just the son of Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez. He's a legitimate rookie-of-the-year candidate. Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. San Francisco is 7-0 in Rodriguez's last seven appearances. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past five starts. Milwaukee has never faced him giving Rodriguez an edge in surprise. The Brewers are going with veteran journeyman Wade Miley, who has a 3.90 ERA in 11 outings versus the Giants, including 10 starts. Miley has had problems pitching in San Francisco with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts there. The Giants are very tough at home going 31-19 at AT&T Park. The Brewers are just a .500 road club. They have dropped their last six away contests and have had problems historically at AT&T Park losing 16 of the past 21 times there.
07-26-18	Edmonton -8 v. Montreal		44-23	Win	100	22 h 58 m	Show
It was a distracting week in Montreal for Alouettes. They made a monster deal trading for Johnny Manziel. The Alouettes are desperate having lost 15 of their last 16 games while going 2-14 ATS. Manziel won't start this week, though. Vernon Adams Jr. will. He already will be Montreal's fourth quarterback. Adams has failed to distinguish himself in three CFL seasons. Manziel's time is soon. Look for the rested Eskimos to crush the Alouettes whomever Montreal plays behind center. The Alouettes are averaging a league-low 13.8 points per game. Their defense can't sustain such a putrid offense ranking last in scoring defense and third-from-the-bottom in yards. Edmonton has the skill position talent to take advantage with Mike Reilly, Duke Williams and Derel Walker. Reilly has thrown nine TD passes, second-most in the league. The Eskimos have yet to play a complete game. They are due. They were idle last week and won't be taking the Alouettes lightly knowing they are two games behind Calgary in the West Division.
07-25-18	Diamondbacks v. Cubs -117		1-2	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
Jon Lester has been the Cubs' best pitcher this season. I like him at home laying a short price against a struggling Robbie Ray. Ray was outstanding last year. But the southpaw has yet to rediscover last season's form since coming off the DL. He has a 7.65 ERA in his last four starts. Ray has surrendered seven homers during this four-game span. The Cubs rank in the top four in runs scored and batting average. They are 17-5 the past 22 times facing a southpaw starter. Lester has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his past nine starts. He has a 3.12 home ERA this season despite giving up eight earned runs in his last start at Wrigley Field when a heavy wind was blowing out. That's not going to be the case today. Lester is 7-1 in day games this season. The Cubs usually perform well for Lester having won 74 percent of his last 54 home starts.
07-24-18	Cardinals -111 v. Reds	Top	4-2	Win	100	11 h 37 m	Show
I'm not sure what the Cardinals are going to get from lefty Austin Gomber, who will be making his first big league start here. But I do know that I want no part of Homer Bailey. The 32-year-old Bailey will be making his first big league start since May 28. Bailey is 1-7 with a 6.68 ERA. He's in the argument for worst starter in the league. He wasn't much better in the minors going 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Bailey has a terrible history versus St. Louis, too, with a 6-14 record and 5.71 ERA in 25 career starts. The Reds have lost 18 of Bailey's last 22 home starts. This isn't a huge surprise considering Bailey's ERA in his last 17 home starts is 7.61. Being a flyball pitcher at Great American Ballpark isn't a formula for success especially when the pitcher is washed up, which Bailey is. Bailey will have to deal with the hottest hitter in the league, Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals are high on Gomber, who had good metrics in the minors such as a high swing rate.
07-23-18	Padres v. Mets -175	Top	3-2	Loss	-175	1 h 31 m	Show
Huge starting pitching edge. Excellent spot. The Mets have those two key factors going their way here While the Mets were idle yesterday, courtesy of a postponement against the Yankees, the Padres had to play a doubleheader against the Phillies Sunday. As disappointing as the Mets have been, the Padres hold a lower win percentage. The rebuilding Padres have lost 22 of their last 28 games, including seven of their past eight. The Mets are throwing Jacob deGrom, who leads the majors with a 1.68 ERA. deGrom has allowed just one run in his last two starts spanning 16 innings. He has a 1.53 career ERA against the Padres in five starts. deGrom hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during his last 16 starts. San Diego ranks among the bottom four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
07-22-18	Dodgers -124 v. Brewers	Top	11-2	Win	100	6 h 45 m	Show
There are reasons why the Dodgers are road chalk against the Brewers. The two primary ones are they could turn into a superpower with the recent acquistion of Manny Machado and they have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Alex Wood versus Brent Sutter. As an added plus, the Dodgers expect to have Justin Turner back in their lineup today after he had missed five games with a hip injury and have a rested Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers usually respond well to a loss having gone 15-3 the past 18 times following a defeat. They also are 13-3 the past 16 times when playing an above .500 team on the road. Sutter is a No. 5 type starter. He entered the All-Star break with a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts. He holds a 4.87 home ERA and has surrendered a home run in each of his last four starts. The Dodgers lead the NL in homers and now they have Machado, who is tied for ninth in homers in the majors with 24. Sutter last pitched on July 14. Milwaukee is 1-4 the past five times Sutter has pitched with seven or more days rest.
07-21-18	White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5	Top	5-0	Loss	-110	13 h 25 m	Show
Hope you weren't fooled by Dylan Covey's hot early start. Covey is a bad pitcher and he's been proving it going 0-4 in his last five starts with a 11.70 ERA and 2.25 WHIP during this time frame. Covey hasn't lasted more than five innings during any of these starts, putting the White Sox's horrendous bullpen into longer action. Don't expect Covey to suddenly get better against the Mariners, who have the seventh-highest batting average in the majors. Covey has a career ERA of 8.92 on the road. The White Sox, though, should do damage against Felix Hernandez, making his first start in more than two weeks after being on the DL with back pain. Hernandez is well past his prime. He has allowed more hard hit balls this year than any previous season and has reached the seventh inning only twice in 19 starts. There's a chance the White Sox get back outfielder Avisail Garcia for this game, which would be a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 17 of the White Sox's last 25 games for 68 percent.
07-21-18	Giants +115 v. A's		3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 58 m	Show
Oakland is doing well this season. But the A's are just 24-22 at home. They are not some super team and I'm not buying journeyman Trevor Cahill as a favorite against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner just pitched against the A's right before All-Star break on July 13 and won, 7-1. He gave up one run on three hits in six innings. The odds are strong Bumgarner is going to do his job. Not so with Cahill, who is pitching for his sixth team in the last five years. The A's are 1-4 in Cahill's last five starts. Cahill hasn't been sharp giving up seven earned runs on a combined 15 hits/walks during his last two starts spanning just 8 1 /3 innings. He has close to a 4.00 lifetime ERA in 18 outings against the Giants, including 15 starts. The Giants are expected to have Brandon Belt back for this game after Belt missed Friday's game to be with his wife, who was giving birth. Belt is the Giants' top power hitter leading them in homers and RBI's.
07-20-18	Astros -113 v. Angels	Top	3-1	Win	100	23 h 13 m	Show
The American League is governed by super powers these days. The defending world champion Astros certainly are one of those super powers. They lead the majors with a plus 188 run differential. So anytime I can get a low enough price on the Astros, I'm interested. That's the case here. Southpaw Tyler Skaggs is having an excellent season for the Angels. This is far more of a play on the Astros than a fade on Skaggs. However, Skaggs is trumped by lefty Dallas Keuchel. Not only is Keuchel in excellent form with a 1.35 ERA in three July starts, but the Angels are 9-18 versus lefty starters this season, including losing 16 of their last 21 to them. Keuchel is 10-2 lifetime versus the Angels. The Astros have won in each of Keuchel's last seven overall starts. Houston is proven on the road, too, winning 28 of its last 38 away games.
07-20-18	Twins v. Royals UNDER 9		5-6	Loss	-110	21 h 15 m	Show
A pitching matchup of Kyle Gibson versus Danny Duffy may induce yawns. But it could lead to a sneaky Under play espcially in the first game back for the Twins and Royals following the four-day All-Star break. Gibson doesn't get much respect, but he's been very good on the road with a 2.84 away ERA. Opposing batters are hitting only .197 against him on the road. The Under is 13-4-1 in Gibson's past 18 away starts. Gibson has a 3.22 career ERA versus the Royals in 16 starts. Gibson won't face an easier offense as the Royals are last in the league in runs and homers. Duffy has been terrible for much of the year - until recently. He has surrendered only one earned run in four of his last five starts. Duffy has a strong history, too, against the Twins with a 5-1 record and 2.27 ERA in 19 appearances, including 15 starts. Duffy has a 0.75 ERA in two starts against Minnesota this season. The Twins have a below average offense ranking 22nd in homers and 18th in batting average. The weather conditions are calling for 7-to-9 mph winds blowing in.
07-20-18	BC v. Ottawa -7		25-29	Loss	-103	56 h 33 m	Show
Take away Calgary and Ottawa would be unbeaten this season. The Redblacks' only defeats have come to the unbeaten Stampeders, who are far-and-away the best team in the CFL this season. Ottawa should be fully focused for this home matchup. The Redblacks' next two games are on the road. Ottawa catches BC in a letdown spot. Ottawa is 5-0 ATS off a loss. The Lions could still be celebrating their improbable 20-17 home victory against Winnipeg this past Saturday. BC trailed 17-0 in the second half, but pulled the game out. Winnipeg committed five turnovers in the game. BC quarterback Travis Lulay made his first start since undergoing ACL surgery last September. Lulay was gallant in the victory, but he still might not be 100 percent healthy and he is past his prime. BC has failed to cover in seven of its past eight road games. They are 0-2 in away matchups this season giving up 41 points to Edmonton in a 19-point loss and 41 points to Winnipeg in a 22-point loss. The Lions also will be without all-star linebacker Solomon Elimimian, who is out with a hand/wrist injury.
07-19-18	Cardinals +143 v. Cubs	Top	6-9	Loss	-100	19 h 50 m	Show
The talent is there for the Cardinals. They just need to wake up. Maybe they have after Mike Matheny was fired this past Saturday. Matheny's relationship with a number of Cardinals had soured. That was a big factor why he was let go. The atmosphere should be better under interim manager Mike Shildt. The Cardinals are 1-0 under Shidt and begin a crucial five-game series with the Cubs today being 7 1/2 games behind the Cubs. The pitching matchup is Carlos Martinez versus Kyle Hendricks. I'm surprised the Cubs opened this high of a favorite. Chicago was hot winning 12 of 15 games leading up to the break. But that could make the Cubs a bit fat and happy since they have now opened a 2 1/2-game lead on the Brewers in the NL Central Division. There's a certain randomness factor involved because each team has been idle for three days. Randomness is a plus when taking a price like this. Martinez pitched extremely well in April, but then he got hurt in May. He wasn't sharp when he returned in June, but lately he has gotten back into an excellent groove surrendering seven earned runs during his last four starts spanning 24 innings. Hendricks is solid, but he's not having a banner year with a 3.92 ERA. He's also not going deep into games having reached the sixth inning only twice in his last nine starts. St. Louis has played better on the road this season than at home going 24-22 in its away games.
07-15-18	Yankees v. Indians -127	Top	2-5	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
The early action has been on the Indians and I can see why. Cleveland is 30-19 at home and has Trevor Bauer pitching against Masahiro Tanaka. Bauer finally is getting the due he deserves being named to the All-Star team while Tanaka remains overrated. I rank Bauer as among the six best pitchers in the American League. Tanaka is nowhere near that level. Bauer is in tremendous form with a 1.84 ERA in his last 11 starts. He has an amazing 111-to-20 strikeouts-to-walks ratio during this span of 78 1/3 innings. Bauer isn't cripple-shooting either. Cleveland is 8-3 the past 11 times Bauer has gone against foes with a winning record. Tanaka made his first start this past Tuesday since June 8 having been on the DL with a hamstring injury. He gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings during a 5-4 loss to the Orioles, who have the worst record in the majors. Tanaka's 7-2 record is deceiving. He's unbeaten in five decisions on the road, but his away ERA is 4.91. Tanaka has surrendered 12 homers on the road in 47 2/3 innings. The Indians rank No. 3 in the majors in runs scored and homers. They are an outstanding home team and hold a starting pitch edge justifying this lay price.
07-14-18	Rangers +100 v. Orioles	Top	0-1	Loss	-100	11 h 9 m	Show
Injuries, lack of talent and constant trade rumors about Manny Machado have taken a huge toll on the Orioles. Baltimore has a mind-boggling 26-69 record. The Orioles may already be looking ahead to All-Star break as they have lost 17 of their last 20 games. They have dropped 33 of their first 47 home games and are 1-16 versus AL West opponents. So, yeah, at this price I'll back the Rangers. Texas isn't a good team either, but the Rangers still are 15 games better than the Orioles. The Rangers have the superior bullpen, average a run more per game than the Orioles and have a veteran edge in the starting pitching matchup with Martin Perez going against rookie Yefry Ramirez. Perez has been sidelined since Aparil 29 because of an elbow injury. He was sharp, though, in rehab going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Texas has won 11 of his last 16 starts. Ramirez has made three big league starts. They have not gone well. He's 0-3 with a 3.93 ERA. The Orioles' bullpen is hurting minus injuired setup relievers, Darren O'Day and Richard Bleier. Led by closer Keone Kela, the Rangers' bullpen is having a strong month. Kela is 23-for-23 in save opportunities this season.
07-14-18	Rays v. Twins -134		19-6	Loss	-134	7 h 0 m	Show
The Rays are one of those good at home teams (26-17) bad on the road (22-29) clubs. They are struggling in Minnesota right now losing the first two games at Target Field in this series. Tampa Bay has now lost 16 of its past 21 away games. Expect the Rays to drop another road game here in a pitching matchup of Chris Archer versus Jose Berrios. On paper the pitching matchup appears even. It is not. Berrios is a rising star who has been outstanding at home with a 7-2 mark, 2.49 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Berrios is in excellent current form, too, with a 2.70 ERA during his last seven overall starts. Minnesota is 18-3 the past 21 times Berrios has pitched at Target Field, a winning percentage of 86 percent! Archer isn't the pitcher right now of seasons past. He's 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and is struggling since coming off the DL. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 innings versus the Tigers in his last start this past Monday.
07-13-18	Phillies v. Marlins +135	Top	2-0	Loss	-100	19 h 48 m	Show
There is far more than meets the eye in this matchup making the Marlins a highly attractive home underdog. The Phillies are feeling fat and happy being the surprise leaders of the NL East and coming off a 5-4 road win against the Orioles on Thursday. The Phillies had to play the Mets in New York on Wednesday. So this marks their third different road venue in three days. Miami was idle on Thursday. The rested Marlins are proving they aren't the bottom feeder many envisioned going into the season. Miami is a respectable 34-40 in its last 74 games. The Marlins are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a righty starter at home. They draw righthanded Jake Arrieta here. Arrieta isn't close to being the elite pitcher he was during his Cy Young Award-winning 2015 season. He's given up three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He's 3-4 on the road with a 4.64 ERA. Philadelphia is 2-5 during Arrieta's past seven away starts. Arrieta has struggled during his two starts against the Marlins this season with a 9.39 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The Marlins get back their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto. He had missed the past three games because of paternity leave. While Arrieta has struggled on the road, Miami pitcher southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has thrived at home with a 1.89 ERA in six starts at Marlins Park. The Marlins have won 12 of Chen's last 16 home starts. Chen is the first lefty starter the Phillies have faced since July 1, a span of 10 games. They have seen only two southpaw starters since June 15. The Phillies are 1-5 the last six times they've gone against a lefty starter.
07-12-18	Rays -115 v. Twins		1-5	Loss	-115	20 h 28 m	Show
Thanks to a five-game win streak, the Rays are a season-best four games above .500. They have won 14 of their last 18 games. The price is low enough to ride them with their best pitcher, Blake Snell. Minnesota is enjoying a homestand. The Twins just concluded successful home series against the the Orioles and Royals. Those are the two worst teams in baseball. Now they step up against the hot Rays. Minnesota has lost the past seven times whe meeting an opponent with a winning record. Snell has become a monster this year. He is second in the American League in wins and ERA. Snell is 8-1 in his past 10 starts, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of those outings. Snell has given up only two runs in his past 28 2/3 innings. Twins starter Kyle Gibson is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Gibson has been solid this season. His record should be better, but he's been unlucky. However, he's several levels below Snell. Gibson also has a poor history versus the Rays with a 1-5 mark and 6.81 ERA. Gibson squared off against Snell back in April and the Rays blasted the Twins, 10-1. The Twins are without their main setup guy, Addison Reed, also. Reed was put on the DL because of a triceps injury.
07-12-18	Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5		27-3	Loss	-105	26 h 51 m	Show
The CFL's two best defenses are pitted here. It's short revenge for Ottawa. The Redblacks suffered their lone loss of the season, 24-14, to Calgary two weeks ago. Calgary has been relying on takeaways. Stampeders QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing barely 60 percent of his throws. That's not impressive especially in the pass-happy CFL. The Redblacks have the league's top rusher in William Powell. Ottawa's defense gives up fewer than 20 points a game. Calgary has failed to beat Ottawa the past three times when not playing at home. The Redblacks and Stampeders tied in Ottawa last season and they also had a tie when they played in Ottawa two years ago. The teams also met at a neural site, Toronto, for the Grey Cup championship in 2016 and the Redblacks won that game in overtime. So getting points with the home 'dog looms large here.
07-12-18	A's v. Astros -1.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-110	13 h 41 m	Show
Playing at home during the day is a great combination for Charlie Morton. He's really only had two bad outings in 18 starts this season. But Morton has especially shined at home where he is 8-1 with a 2.66 ERA and in day games where he is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA. That's the situation he finds himself in on Thursday. Morton is in good form, too, with a 2.87 ERA in his last five starts. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame in 31 1/3 innings. Trevor Cahill, a journeyman type, comes off the DL for his first start in a month to pitch for Oakland. He's been at his worst on the road with an 0-2 away mark and 5.66 ERA. I like this spot a lot for the Astros coming off a rare home defeat to the A's. Houston has won 49 of its last 70 home games for 70 percent.
07-11-18	Mariners +106 v. Angels	Top	3-0	Win	106	14 h 45 m	Show
The price is right to get involved with the Mariners. Seattle is 10 games better than the Angels in the standings and own both a starting pitcher and bullpen edge on Los Angeles. Marco Gonzalez was touted before the season as a sleeper breakout candidate and he's come through going 9-5 with a 3.64 ERA. The southpaw is back in good form giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 14 innings with a 14-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. The Angels really struggle versus lefties losing 16 of 23 times this season when facing a southpaw starter. Jaime Barria goes for the Angels. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings. He's allowed 10 walks and four homers during this time frame. The Angels are 0-5 in his last five starts.
07-10-18	Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8.5		1-4	Win	100	14 h 35 m	Show
The Padres play in the best pitcher's stadium in the majors, Petco Park. They also aren't a very good offensive team ranking in the bottom-four in the major categories, including scoring, batting and homers. So it's not a huge surprise the Under is 17-8-1 in San Diego's last 26 games for 68 percent. I see another Under in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus rookie lefty Eric Lauer. Hill is rounding into shape. He's given up just three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings with a 15-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has held the Padres to a batting average of .184 in 45 1/3 career innings versus them, averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. I have full confidence Hill will keep the weak-hitting Padres in check. But what about Lauer? Lauer has come on after a rocky beginning to post a 2.76 ERA in his last seven starts. He shut out the Dodgers on seven hits and one walk in six innings when he beat them, 3-0, on May 6 in Monterrey, Mexico. That was his best start. Lauer won't have to worry about Yasiel Puig, who is on the DL. The Under is 22-8-1 (73%) during the Dodgers' past 31 games versus a southpaw starter. Note, too, that Victor Carapazza is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's one of the strongest Under umps in the majors. During the last five years, 60 percent of the games Carapazza has been behind the plate have gone Under at 83-55.
07-10-18	Reds v. Indians -1.5	Top	7-4	Loss	-110	11 h 56 m	Show
I want the Indians going for me after they lost at home to the Reds last night. Since last year's All-Star Game, the Indians have compiled the best home record in the majors at 56-24. The Reds have been playing better but they are far below the Indians and draw Trevor Bauer here. Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA at Progressive Field this season. He has a 2.05 ERA in his last 10 overall starts with 99 strikeouts in 70 1/3 innings during this span. Cincinnati's Sal Romano and the Reds' overworked bullpen can't match that. Romano has a 5.40 ERA on the year. He did beat the White Sox during his last start this past Wednesday, but still gave up four runs on six hits in five innings.
07-09-18	Cubs v. Giants -117		1-2	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are very strong at home - 28-16 on the season, including 16-6 in their last 22 home games - and catch the Cubs flying to the West Coast following an eight-game homestand. The Cubs carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and their starter, Kyle Hendricks, is in a down cycle with a 6.29 ERA in his last seven starts. Chicago is 2-5 in Hendricks' last seven outings. The Giants got their bats going putting up 13 runs against the Cardinals on Sunday. San Francisco starter Andrew Suarez has a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his past five starts.
07-09-18	Phillies v. Mets OVER 7.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-126	20 h 29 m	Show
No, you can't have a total open as low as 7 1/2 when Corey Oswalt is one of the starting pitchers. Oswalt has a 7.94 ERA and isn't nearly qualified to be a big league starter at this point of his career, if ever. Note this is the second game of the Phillies-Mets doubleheader. So it's a night game. The wind is projected to be blowing out at 13-14 mph in the evening. There could be fatigue factors, too, for the bullpens since this is the second game of the day. Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola is outstanding, but the Phillies' bullpen is up and down. The Mets failed to score during the weekend, but in their previous four games their offense showed life scoring a combined 22 runs.
07-08-18	Dodgers -122 v. Angels	Top	3-4	Loss	-122	17 h 41 m	Show
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 17 away games. They are the superior team here and have a pitching matchup edge plus I prefer their bullpen especially with closer Kenley Jansen. Southpaw Alex Wood began the year slow, but has come on for the Dodgers. He's going for his fifth straight winning start. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last five outings. The Angels have yet to ever face him. Along with their current strong road mark, the Dodgers also have won 19 of their past 26 interleague games. The Dodgers are 18-12 against lefty starters this year. They draw lefty Andrew Heaney, who is up-and-down and frequently injuured. Heaney is healthy now, but not in good form. He's allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's surrendered 13 hits, five walks and three homers.
07-08-18	Rockies v. Mariners -133		4-6	Win	100	13 h 55 m	Show
If you can't beat him, join him. That's the way I feel about southpaw Wade LeBlanc. I was fading LeBlanc when the 33-year-old first joined the Mariners. But he's been super going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 12 starts for the Mariners. Seattle has yet to lose during any of LeBlanc's 13 previous starts at Safeco Field. The Mariners are 14-3 overall in LeBlanc's starts. The Rockies are 5-16 in their past 21 interleague games when facing a lefty starter. I don't see the Rockies pulling off a rare road sweep with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. He has a 4.44 ERA. The Mariners have outfield Mitch Haniger back in the lineup and sparkplug Dee Gordon is expected to start, too, today after not starting on Saturday due to a minor hip injury.
07-08-18	Reds v. Cubs -147		5-6	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
Jim Riggleman has turned around the Reds. Cincinnati had won 14 of their last 18 games until blowing a five-run lead in losing 8-7 to the Cubs on Saturday. That loss is a momentum shifter, though. I see the rejuvenated Cubs beating the Reds again today behind their top pitcher, Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 75 percent of Lester's last 52 home starts. Lester is 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in eight home starts this season. Reds starter Luis Castillo showed intriguing potential two seasons ago. But he's regressed this season with a 5.53 ERA and only five quality outings in 18 starts this year. The price is worth laying to get Lester in this pitching mismatch.
07-07-18	Red Sox -1.5 v. Royals		15-4	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
The key isn't if the Red Sox will beat the Royals. They most likely will. The key is getting away from laying heavy juice and making the Red Sox work on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. That should work, too. The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 victories by more than one run. This includes winning their last three games by an average of five runs. The Royals have lost seven in a row. David Price should have no problem handling them. Kansas City ranks last in runs and homers. Price is 4-0 career-wise versus Kansas City with a 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.56 in three appearances at Kauffman Stadium. Rookie Brad Keller gets the start for the Royals. He has an excellent 2.09 ERA pitching mostly out of the bullpen. But I'm not sold on him based in part on some of his metrics. I have him due for serious regression. Keller is facing the No. 1 scoring team in the majors here.
07-07-18	Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 55.5		17-20	Loss	-107	73 h 59 m	Show
It's not a surprise Edmonton has gone Over in each of its first three games. The Eskimos are No. 2 in the CFL in scoring and yards per game. However, they have the third-worst defense in the league yielding 30 points per game. The average combined total score in Edmonton's three games this season is 61.6 points. Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly is among the top two in each of the major passing categories. He has the second-leading rusher in the league, C.J. Gable, and the CFL's two top receiving yardage leaders in D'haqille Williams and Derel Walker. Toronto has the worst defense in the CFL. The Argos are surrendering an average of 34 points a game and 439 yards. So I have no doubt Edmonton is going to put up monster numbers. The key is Toronto. Can the Argos contribute their share of points? I believe they can. The Argos are winless and had a bye last week. Their coach, Marc Trestman, is an offensive guru. The Over has cashed in 11 of the past 13 times the Argos came off a bye. The Argos should be fired-up here. But their path to victory is offense not defense. Trestman has had extra time to get James Franklin, Toronto's new starting quarterback, prepared for this game. Franklin has good arm strength and is mobile. He knows Edmonton, too, having played for the Eskimos during the previous three seasons. Franklin has a huge ace with running back James Wilder Jr. He should have a big game against an Eskimo run defense that ranks second-to-last. There is a strong Over tendency in this series with the Over cashing in 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Eskimos also have gone Over in all but one of their last nine road contests.
07-07-18	Cardinals -110 v. Giants	Top	3-2	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
If there is a buy sign on Jeff Samardzija I'm certainly missing it. Samardzija was terrible before going on the DL - a 6.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP - due to pectoral and shoulder injuries and he was bad while recovering in the minors with a 5.29 ERA. This is his first big league start since May 29. San Francisco is 0-5 in his last five starts. The Giants' bullpen is down closer Hunter Strickland and could get extensive work here. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez was rusty and shaky when he first returned from the DL. But Martinez is a near-elite pitcher and has looked good in his last two starts holding the Indians and Diamondbacks to a combined four runs in 12 innings. Martinez is pitching on his normal four days rest. St. Louis is 9-2 the past 11 times that has happened. The Cardinals' lineup is bolstered by the return of power-hitting middle infielder Paul DeJong and closer Bud Norris, who was cleared to pitch today after being out the past two days with a finger injury.
07-06-18	Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-139	17 h 20 m	Show
You have to believe pitching is going to dominate here. The Braves are starting Mike Foltynewicz, who is having a breakout season with a 2.02 ERA. Foltynewicz is in tremendous form with a 0.87 ERA in his last nine starts, striking out 64 in 52 innings during this span. Foltynewicz has dominated the Brewers, too, with a career ERA of 1.48 versus them in four starts. The Braves' bullpen is bolstered very much with the return of closer Arodys Vizcaino from the DL. The Brewers are going with exciting rookie Freddy Peralta, who has a 2.28 ERA in five starts. Peralta has been particularly brilliant in his last three starts compiling a 1.50 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 22-to-four in this span of 18 innings. The Brewers have one of the better bullpens in baseball.
07-05-18	Angels v. Mariners -124	Top	1-4	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
The Angels ended the Mariners' eight-game win streak with a 7-4 win on Wednesday. I don't see the Angels beating Seattle a second straight day in a pitching matchup of rookie Jaime Barria versus lefty Marco Gonzales. Barria started fast, but the league has caught up to him. The Angels, though, have too many pitching injuries to take Barria out of the starting rotation. Barria is pitching today in place of Tyler Skaggs, who went on the DL Wednesday with a right adductor strain. Barria has a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 during his past four starts. The Mariners just saw Barria on June 12 scoring three runs on eight hits in five innings against him. The Mariners have won 21 of their last 27 home games. Gonzales has been a solid middle-to-bottom-of-the-rotation starter. He's given up two runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. At 26 he is in his prime and is further along in his pitching career than the 21-year-old Barria. Seattle has a far better bullpen than the Angels, too. The Angels are 6-15 on the season versus lefties. They have lost 10 of the past 11 times on the road when going against a southpaw starter.
07-05-18	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan OVER 49		13-18	Loss	-119	58 h 35 m	Show
Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is thriving under offensive guru June Jones. Masoli has thrown for the most yards in the CFL and the Tiger-Cats are averaging 34 points in their last two games. Masoli has thrown for 300 or more yards in eight straight games going back to last season. Brandon Banks is one of the best receivers in the CFL and Hamilton has solid running back depth. So I definitely see the Tiger-Cats holding up their scoring end here. Saskatchewan has been underacheiving. The Roughriders are without their starting quarterback, Zach Collaros. They've been hurt by turnovers. But they have the talent to turn things around offensively as Brandon Bridge gets more comfortable behind center. I see the Roughriders coming out very determined and Bridge playing much better than last week when the team suffered an embarrassing home loss to Montreal.
07-04-18	Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5		0-1	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Both starting pitchers, Andrew Suarez and Tyler Anderson, are in good form. Suarez has held five of his last seven opponents to two runs or fewer. Anderson is coming off an eight-inning shutout of the Dodgers this past Friday. The Under has cashed in six of his last eight home starts. The Giants have gone under the total the past four times they've faced a southpaw starter. The Giants are not a good road club. They have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 11 road contests. Coors Field is the premier offensive park in the majors. But some of this is mitigated by the weather forecast, which is calling for winds of 10-14 mph to be blowing in.
07-04-18	Giants v. Rockies -120		0-1	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
The Giants are a different team on the road. A bad team. San Francisco is nine games under .500 on the road and have lost 68 percent of their past 52 games at Coors Field, including the first two of this series by a combined margin of 13-3. Nolan Arenado is on fire with 21 RBI's in his last 14 games, including nine homers, and Charlie Blackmon has started to heat up. Those are Colorado's key cogs. I don't see rookie Andrew Suarez and a Giants bullpen lacking a closer being able to stop the Rockies in Coors. Southpaw Tyler Anderson is coming off a brilliant performance shutting out the Dodgers for eight innings while allowing only four hits in a 3-1 victory this past Friday. The Dodgers have scored 31 runs in their last three games so Anderson's outing wasn't a fluke. Anderson is backed by two stud late-inning relievers, Adam Ottavino and Wade Davis. The Giants have lost nine of their last 13 games when facing a lefty starter.
07-04-18	Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5		4-6	Win	100	7 h 51 m	Show
This is a give-up spot in a give-up season for the Pirates. The Dodgers are averaging more than 10 runs per game during their last three games. The Pirates are short on starters and their bullpen is spent. So the Pirates are going with Clay Holmes. He's thrown all of two innings for the Pirates this season. This will be his first start. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't expected to go deep into the game leaving the Pirates' wretched middle relief to try to stem the tide while in serious fatigue mode. Rich Hill is capable of elite starts - when he's healthy. Hill is healthy now, at least for the time being. He has a 2.55 ERA in three starts since coming off the DL.
07-04-18	Astros -154 v. Rangers		5-4	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
The price has come down enough where I can get involved and not feel ripped off. The Astros halted a three-game losing streak by defeating the Rangers, 5-3, at Globe Life Park. I felt so strong about an Astros victory in that game that I laid 1 1/2 runs with them on the run line. The price isn't large enough to have to do that in this game. I'm surprised it isn't. Houston is 25 games above .500 while the Rangers are 10 games under .500. The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 12 of the last 13 times there, including the past seven. Not only does Houston have a big offensive edge, but also a major pitching advantage in a matchup of Gerrit Cole versus Mike Minor. Cole has thrived since coming to the Astros. He's 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA this season. Cole has dominated the Rangers going 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four career starts, including a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings this season. Minor, by contrast, is 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts versus Houston this season and has a 5.06 career ERA against the Astros in nine appearances, including six starts.