Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago.

There have been a number of rule changes made this season in the Canadian Football League. They favor offense. So expect higher scoring than perceived starting with this matchup.

Both teams have proven veteran QB's. Montreal has Vernon Adams behind center. Adams has one of the league's better running backs, William Stanback, and several good wide receivers to go with a solid offensive line.

Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell, who should have a better season now that he's healthy after being banged-up last season. The Stampeders have a very good runner, too, in Ka'Deem Carey plus a number of excellent wideouts headed by Reggie Begelton and Kamar Jorden along with promising Luther Hakunavanhu.

A key factor for the Stampeders is that Montreal lost a lot of its key defensive players due to free agency. So the Alouettes defense figures to be down.

I respect the Twins. But I want Gerrit Cole and the Yankees going for me off an 8-1 loss on Wednesday. The way to get it without laying monster juice is back the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. 

The Cardinals are trying to avoid a sweep here. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus lefty Shane McClanahan.

I like the Cardinals' chances of hanging in with Mikolas, who has had nine of 10 good starts this season. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 80 percent of his starts. Mikolas has a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

McClanahan has pitched well, too, this season. This isn't a play against him, but taking 1 1/2 runs on what I believe is an inflated Rays' price.

The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 27 games against a southpaw starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, St. Louis would be 14-6 in its last 20 games.

Golden State knows how to win, adjust strategy and stay aggressive when it has to. The Warriors have proven that during the past seven years in the postseason. The Celtics aren't at that stage in the biggest games. I trust the Warriors' experience, their superstars and role players. I don't have as much faith in the Celtics' two superstars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with the rest of their team.

The Celtics also have a major weakness. They commit too many turnovers. The Warriors have excellent defenders to take advantage if and when the Celtics get careless, reckless and sloppy with the basketball. Getting back ace defender Gary Payton II is a big plus for Golden State. The Warriors scored 33 points directly off Boston's 18 turnovers in Game 2.

The Warriors are due to get better performances from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. They are a combined 18-of-54 shooting from the floor for 33 percent.

If the Celtics aren't hitting their 3-pointers they are in trouble. The Warriors are the more versatile team.

Boston is far from invincible at home. The Celtics lost not one but TWO home games each to the Bucks and Heat in the playoffs.

Gerrit Cole may not even be the best pitcher on the Yankees. Nestor Cortes is 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He has a 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cortes gets the start against Chris Archer as the Yankees try for their eighth straight victory.

Archer has a respectable 3.89 ERA. But note that his last four starts have come against very weak-hitting teams - Tigers twice, Royals and A's. The last time Archer faced a strong offense was five starts ago against the Astros. Houston got to him for five runs (four earned) in just three innings before he was pulled.

Archer hasn't pitched well at home either with a 5.00 ERA.

Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread.

Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory.

This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky. 
The Fever have been idle since Sunday. They have the league's third-league scorer, Kelsey Mitchell. She ripped her team following Indiana's last loss saying they were playing too lackadaisical. 

I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. 

Dangerous at home, weak on the road. That's always been the Rockies' style and it's the same this year. Colorado has lost 20 of its last 27 games and is a dreadful 7-15 away from Coors Field.

Things don't figure to improve in this series opener with disappointing German Marquez facing lefty Carlos Rodon.

Marquez is 1-5 with a 6.71 ERA. He's in terrible form with a 7.94 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has made 14 career starts against the Giants and is 4-8 against them with a 7.19 ERA.

Rodon faced the Rockies on May 9. He held them to two runs on six hits in six innings while posting a season-high 12 strikeouts. Colorado is 1-6 the last seven times going against a southpaw starter.

San Francisco has dominated Colorado going 20-5 since the start of last season. The Giants have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

New York not only has short revenge for a Sunday home loss to the Lynx, but double revenge, too.

Minnesota won, 84-77. The Lynx shot 49 percent from the floor, made 7 of 13 3-pointers and sank 15 of 20 free throws. Aerial Powers tied her career-high with 27 points on 11 of 22 shooting from the field, including 3-of-3 from beyond the arc.

New York, by contrast, shot 45 percent from the floor, missed 26 of 30 shots from 3-point range and made nine of 13 free throws. Despite this, the Liberty rallied from a 19-point third quarter deficit to come within one point of the Lynx with under four minutes left before slipping back.

The Liberty was playing its best stretch of ball prior to that game winning and covering two in a row.

That was just Minnesota's second road win in seven away contests.

The Mets have the best record in the National League at 37-19. However, they are just 9-9 against lefty starters. Going back long-term, the Mets are 21-45 against a southpaw starter during their last 66 road games.

Here the Mets draw Padres lefty Blake Snell.

The Mets may be in letdown mode after just concluding a high profile four-game series against the Dodgers by nipping LA in extra innings on Sunday.

Carolos Carrasco gets the start for New York. He has a 5.06 road ERA and is off his highest pitch count during his last five starts.

The Padres have scored 17 runs in their last three games against a strong Brewers pitching staff.

The Avalanche have dominated the Oilers for most of this Western Conference Final in building a 3-0 series lead. That includes a 4-2 road victory in Game 3 this past Saturday.

Colorado is now 6-0 away from home in the playoffs. The Avalanche have outscored their opponents by 15 goals during these six away victories.

I see no reason to go against the Avalanche. They have outscored the Oilers by eight goals in the series. The Oilers must realistically realize their cause is hopeless. Teams that have lost the first three games in the conference finals and semifinals are 0-44 when it comes to winning a series.

The Avalanche are in a great rhythm. They are 40-18 the past 58 times when playing on one day's rest. Colorado is 6-1 during the last seven meetings against Edmonton.

Making things even worse for the Oilers is Evander Kane won't play because of suspension. Kane is the No. 1 postseason scorer with 13 goals.

Even now it seems unreal the Warriors lost to the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Golden State hadn't lost an opening series home game in the playoffs in six years. The Warriors entered the fourth quarter beating Boston, 92-80. Until then, the Warriors had outscored their playoff opponents by an average of 25.4 points per 100 possessions during the final period.

The Warriors took their foot off the gas and the Celtics got hot in epic fashion. The result was an improbable, 120-108, Boston victory. Neither is likely to occur in this Game 2.

The Celtics shot 51 percent from the floor in Game 1. They also shot 51 percent from 3-point range making 21 of 41 shots from beyond the arc. Al Horford, Derrick White and Marcus Smart combined to make 15 3-point shots. Yes, Jayson Tatum is due to shoot better than he did in Game 1. But Horford, White and Smart are not going to keep up their way over the top offensive production.

Golden State shot 44 percent from the field in the opening game and 42 percent from 3-point range making 19 of 45 shots from past the arc. The Warriors - the home team - even shot one fewer free throw than the Celtics.

The Warriors are sure to make adjustments. Steve Kerr isn't above trying to go box-and-one and triangle-and-two to keep the Celtics off balance. He has the versatile defenders to do this with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Andre Iguodala. There's a good chance, too, the Warriors get back from injury, ace defender Gary Payton II.

Adam Wainwright is 40. But he's shown no signs of slowing down with a winning record and 2.75 ERA. Wainwright faces lefty Justin Steele, who has a 5.40 ERA and has lost his last five decisions. The Cardinals saw Steele last September and got to him for six runs in five innings.

St. Louis is 19-7 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter.

The Cardinals are the deeper and superior team to the Cubs. They are better equipped all the way around to win the fifth game of this series after Saturday's doubleheader.

St. Louis has defeated the Cubs in seven of the past nine games at Wrigley Field.

First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot.

This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite.

Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points.

The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago.

The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream.

The White Sox are terrible in the role of road underdog. That's the position they find themselves in today against the Rays. The White Sox have lost 41 of the past 53 times (23 percent) as an away underdog.

The White Sox are in bad form, too, losing seven of their last nine games. Tampa Bay has won three in a row.

Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has been solid with a 5-2 mark and 3.47 ERA. Chicago's Dylan Cease is a big strikeout pitcher, who can dominate weaker lineups but has problems against good offenses. The Yankees and Red Sox, for instance, got to him for 13 runs in a combined seven innings. Cease also walks too many batters.

At 37-15, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. They just pounded the Tigers, 13-0, on Friday. Expect more of the same Saturday so I have no qualms about laying New York on the run line as the Yankees go for their ninth win in their last 11 games.

The Yankees hold both a strong hitting and pitching edge. New York leads the majors in homers and ranks fifth in runs. The Tigers aren't likely to slow down the Yankees' powerful attack starting rookie Beau Brieske. He is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brieske has permitted 10 homers in seven starts.

Yankees starter Luis Severino has looked good on his comeback trail. He's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The Yankees are 7-2 in Severino's starts this season with all the victories except one coming by more than one run.

Detroit is last in runs and homers. The Tigers are averaging 2.81 runs a game, which is the lowest in the majors since 1968. Detroit has been even worse on the road averaging 2.2 runs away from home.

Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season.

Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night.

Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.

Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up.

The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi.

The Rangers upset the Lightning, 6-2, in the opening game of this Eastern Conference Final. We know what Tampa Bay does following a playoff loss. If you need a reminder this is it: The Lightning are 19-0 following a Stanley Cup loss. 

The oddsmaker doesn't believe in the Rangers either making them a home 'dog despite their convincing Game 1 victory. 

Kudos to the Rangers for not only taking out the Hurricanes with a Game 7 road victory, but also their win against Tampa Bay. But do keep in mind, the Lightning hadn't played in nine days following their four-game sweep of the Panthers in the second round. 

Don't expect the prideful two-time defending Stanley Cup champions to be flat against the Rangers for a second straight game. The rust is off. Star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, stud defenseman Victor Hedman and Tampa's many scoring threats should be primed now with their pride on the line. 

Brady Singer has been pitching well. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is inconsistent, either very good or very bad.

But this price is low enough to get involved with the Astros against the worst team in baseball. That team is Kansas City.

The spot isn't good either for the 16-33 Royals. This is their first home game back following a 2-7 road trip.

The Astros are 22-7 in their last 29 games. They have defeated the Royals 14 of the past 20 times and are 8-3 against them the last 11 times in Kansas City.

The Royals have never faced Urquidy giving him the surprise element.

Kansas City has lost 10 of the last 11 times it has been a home 'dog.

The Cardinals are much superior to the Cubs. The records bear this out. St. Louis is 29-22, while Chicago is the opposite at 22-29.

The Cubs edged the Cardinals, 7-5, on Thursday. But I don't see Chicago beating St. Louis again.

The Cardinals have won five of the last six at Wrigley Field. St. Louis is 35-16 in its last 51 road games. The Cubs are 4-23 in their last 27 home games when taking on an above .500 opponent.

The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus Marcus Stroman. That favors St. Louis, too. Mikolas has a 1.54 road ERA. Stroman has struggled at Wrigley Field with an 0-2 record and 6.28 home ERA.

The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference.

The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround.

The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively.

I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday.

The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity.

Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble.

Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win.

Corey Kluber isn't likely to ever win a third Cy Young Award. But he's shaken off injuries to become respectable. Kluber is a good fit for the Rays. He's been solid this season in nine starts with a 4.03 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP.

I give Kluber and the superior Rays a much bigger edge than the oddsmaker finding this lay price to be 25-30 cents lower than it should be.

The Rays are banged-up, but they have excellent depth. They also get to face Taylor Hearn, who probably shouldn't be in a big league rotation.

Making the conversion from bullpen to starter, Hearn has made nine starts. The numbers aren't pretty - a 5.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.

Kluber handled a much tougher Yankees lineup in his last start, holding them to one run on three hits in six hits. The Rangers rank 21st in batting average. The bottom of their order is weak and they could have the most disappointing hitter in the majors this season, Marcus Semien.

Semien smacked 45 homers last year while batting .265 for the Blue Jays. He's been an utter bust so far with the Rangers hitting .193 with one homer.

If you're expecting this Game 1 Eastern Conference Final to be similar to Colorado's 8-6 victory against Edmonton in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final Tuesday then we have totally opposite viewpoints.

Because I see a defensive matchup pitting the two best goalies in hockey, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. Both goalies are hot, too.

Tampa Bay, behind Vasilevskiy, has surrendered just four goals in its last five games. That was a four-game sweep of the Panthers, the highest-scoring team in the NHL, and the final game of the series against the Maple Leafs, the second-highest scoring team in the NHL.

Backed by Shesterkin, the likely Vezina Trophy winner as the league's best goalie, the Rangers have not allowed more than two goals per game in six of their last seven games. The Rangers face a Lightning squad that should be extremely rusty, too, since it has been nine days since Tampa Bay last was in action.

Neither of these teams are good defensively. Hence, the somewhat high total. However, both are bad offensively, too. That, along with the situation, puts me on the Under.

Indiana is 10th out of 12 teams in field goal percentage. The Fever rank last in free throw percentage.

New York is last in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting.

Now the situation. The Fever are playing without rest, which is a rarity in the WNBA. Indiana was outscored by 20 points in the second half in an 87-75 loss to the Mystics at home last night. Now the Fever had to fly into New York. So expect a slower pace from the Fever.

The Liberty have lost seven in a row. Their 1-7 record is the worst in the league. But they have a real opportunity to halt their losing skid at home here. So expect an intense, defensive effort, something the players have talked about in their pregame comments.

The A's are an embarrassment at home where they are 7-20 and drawing fewer than 4,000 fans. 

Oakland is 1-5 in its last six games and must deal with an angry Justin Verlander, off his worst start of the season. Verlander gave up six runs on 10 hits in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners this past Friday. Verlander entered that game riding a 19-inning scoreless streak with a major league-best 1.22 ERA. 

Verlander is 14-7 lifetime against the A's with a 2.90 ERA, although he last faced them in 2019. Look for Verlander to bounce back and dominate a weak A's lineup that ranks in the bottom three in the major offensive categories. 

Cole Irvin gets the start for Oakland. He hasn't pitched badly this season, but has an 0-3 career-mark against Houston with a 7.40 ERA in four starts. 
The A's went 10-21 in May. Each of their last 13 losses have been by more than one run. So I feel confident laying a reasonable number on the run line in order to reduce the heavy juice. 

The Oilers were able to get past the Kings and Flames so far in these Stanley Cup playoffs despite subpar goaltending by washed-up Mike Smith. But I don't see Smith, who has allowed three or more goals in seven of 11 playoff games, holding down the fort against the Avalanche.

Edmonton has been able to get away with shoddy defense and goaltending because of its high-powered offense. Colorado, however, has an offense as good as the Oilers plus a much stronger defense.

Edmonton scored a league-best 4.33 goals per game. Colorado was right behind the Oilers at 4.30 goals a game. The Oilers have two superstar point producers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, to Edmonton's lone offensive superstar, Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado, however, has better scoring depth and its defenders have been the best in the playoffs at limiting shots on goals, limiting scoring chances and high danger opportunities.

The Oilers don't have an answer for Colorado's star blue liner Cale Makar, who can control the action. Devon Toews gives Colorado the second best defenseman on the ice, too.

This Game 1 is a home statement game for the Avalanche. I see them doing that with a multiple goal victory.

I'm not sure why, but Luis Castillo still commands some respect from the oddsmaker. Otherwise why else would the Reds only be midsized road underdogs? 

 So I find this to be that rare spot where there is value on the home favorite.  The Reds have the worst road record in the majors at 7-19. They have the worst pitching in the league and rank 26th in batting. Cincinnati is below average in just about every offensive category.  

The Red Sox rank third in batting and have scored the fifth most runs. I don't see Castillo, an underachiever given his high ceiling, stopping Boston at Fenway Park. Castillo is off to a slow start again this season with a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA.  

Boston is off an embarrassing, 10-0, Memorial Day home loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox certainly shouldn't lack motivation following that stinker. Before that loss, though, the Red Sox were 9-3 in their last 12 games while averaging 8.6 runs during their previous five games. The Red Sox have won the opening game in five of their last six series. 

Boston starter Michael Wacha has looked good with a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. He dominated the Reds during his years with the Cardinals going 12-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 23 career appearances.  

Let's get this out of the way right now. The Hurricanes are 7-0 at home in the playoffs. They are 3-0 at home against the Rangers in this series.

So why take the underdog Rangers besides getting a plus price?

Several reasons starting with the goalie matchup. Igor Shesterkin isn't just the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in hockey, but he's also a strong Hart Trophy candidate, too, as the MVP of the league. Shesterkin has allowed two or fewer goals in five of the six games in the series. He's a difference maker.

The same certainly can't be said for Carolina goalie Antti Raanta. He's a backup forced into the spotlight because of an injury to Frederik Andersen. Fatigue could be hitting Raanta. He's made 12 starts in the postseason after making only 26 starts during the regular season. Raanta surrendered two - if not three - marginal goals to the Rangers in Game 6 with New York winning, 5-2. Raanta played so poorly he was pulled after 13 shots.

It's rare to get an underdog this large that holds such a monster goalie edge. All three of the Rangers' losses in Carolina were close. This stage and challenge isn't too big for the Rangers. They proved that in their first playoff series winning Game 6 in Pittsburgh and finishing off the Penguins in seven games.

Adam Fox gives the Rangers a Norris Trophy-winning defenseman. The Rangers have the point producers with Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. The Hurricanes can't be as aggressive as the Rangers because of the goalie discrepancy.

The Rangers were a lot faster and smoother than the Hurricanes in the last game. That should carry over. It's the Hurricanes who are playing with all the pressure.

Perception doesn't match reality here.

The perception is the defending world champion Braves are good and the Diamondbacks, losers of 110 games last year, are terrible. This isn't right.

Atlanta is 23-25. Arizona is 23-26. Note, too, that nine of Arizona's losses have occurred to the Dodgers, who have the best lineup in baseball. The Diamondbacks are 18-13 outside of the NL West Division.

Not only are the Diamondbacks home, but they have a huge edge in starting pitchers with rookie Spencer Strider opposing Zac Gallen. This will be Strider's first big league start. His 11 appearances this season have all come in relief.

Gallen has been an underrated monster this season. He's made eight starts. All have been excellent except one. Gallen has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in six starts and two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts. Gallen has a 2.22 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

Gallen faced the Braves once last season - his only appearance against them - and tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. The Diamondbacks are much better this season while the Braves have yet to get in gear.

It's not difficult envisioning each team scoring at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Jonathan Heasley versus Zach Plesac especially on a muggy day with the wind blowing out at 12-14 mph.

 The righthanded Heasley has a 4.73 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7-to-13. The Guardians hit righties much better than lefties.  Plesac has regressed this season with a 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Royals have gone Over the past eight times they've faced a righty starter.  Kansas City has been hot offensively, too, scoring six or more runs in four of their last seven games while producing five runs during another game in this span. 
 

After Games 4 and 5 of this Eastern Conference Finals both went Under by a combined 52 1/2 points, the Heat and Celtics went Over the total in Game 6 this past Friday with the Heat winning, 111-103. 

Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages scoring 47 points and the teams combined to make 52 of 56 free throws for 93 percent.

Neither is likely to occur in this winner-take-all Game 7. 

Boston is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. Butler is banged up. He willed himself to hit 16 of 29 shots from the floor and make all 11 of his free throws. Butler was averaging a meager nine points during the previous three games. 

The Heat haven't had Tyler Herro, their No. 2 scorer, during the past three games. He's been out with a groin injury. Even if Herro plays, he figures to be rusty. Miami's backcourt scoring and shooting has been well below average during the series. 

The Celtics held the Bucks to 81 points in their Game 7 victory during their previous series. That Game 7 went Under by 15 points. 

Miami has the fourth-best defense in the NBA and ranked No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Celtics lack consistent scorers outside of Jayson Tatum. 
This is a Game 7 so the defensive intensity will be on full blast. 

Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game.

I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. 

The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. 

The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series. 

The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. But I see the Angels winning this home game in a pitching matchup of Michael Lorenzen against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

The Angels traditionally are a strong home team. That's the case so far this season as they are 12-5 in their last 17 home contests.

The Angels also have done well versus lefties. They went 30-25 versus southpaw starters last year and are 8-5 against them this season.

Kikuchi is having a good season, but he has a bad history versus the Angels with a 1-4 record and 10.92 ERA in seven previous starts against them.

Lorenzen has his confidence up after consecutive strong starts giving up just one run during the past 13 innings.

We've been down this path before with the Rangers. They faced elimination down 3-1 to the Penguins in their first-round Stanley Cup matchup and prevailed. Now they need to win this home game to stay alive against the Hurricanes down 3-2 in the series.

The Rangers have the resilience, goaltending and home ice necessary to win this game. Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad are due to step up bigger than they have in this series. Igor Shesterkin has regained his touch as the best goalie in hockey this season.

The price is more than right to back the Rangers against a Carolina squad that has shown strength at home, but weakness on the road. The Hurricanes are 0-5 in their Stanley Cup away games. All of those losses were by more than one goal. They have been outscored by 13 goals on the road in the playoffs during those five games.

Carolina doesn't have a good history at Madison Square Garden either, losing 20 of the past 26 times there.

I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense.

The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games.

The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth.

Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs.

But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors.

No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. Don't expect the Mavericks to become the first. 

Dallas staved off elimination by holding off the Warriors, 119-109, at home two days ago. The Mavericks accomplished this by sinking 20 3-point shots on their way to making 46.5 percent of their 3-pointers. 

I can't see Dallas coming close to repeating that hot long-range shooting, which is its key to upsetting Golden State. 

The Mavericks were a below average 3-point shooting team finishing 19th during the regular season. The Warriors rank No. 3 in 3-point defense holding foes to 34.8 percent from beyond the arc. That percentage shrinks to 32.8 percent when the Warriors are playing at home. 

The Warriors are 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They haven't lost two in a row during the postseason in facing the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. 

Dallas has failed to cover in five of its last six road games. Luka Doncic doesn't have enough reliable support for the Mavericks to stay close in this one.

The veteran Warriors know how to finish off opponents. Steve Kerr will be focused, something it was tough for him to do after the tragic school shooting in Texas on Tuesday. Doncic is outnumbered by Golden State's many stars and role players. 

The Brewers have trouble with the Cardinals losing eight of the past 11 times to them. Perhaps the Brewers' biggest strength is the backend of their bullpen with closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams.

However, neither of those two are likely to play. Hader has been on family medical emergency leave. This has forced Williams to pitch in three straight games for the first time this season.

So the Brewers need lefty Eric Lauer to pitch deep into the game. Lauer has pitched well with a 2.16 ERA. He's not that good, though, so regression is due. The Cardinals also hit lefties well. St. Louis ranks No. 1 in weighted on base average versus southpaws. Lauer has to deal with a pair of tough righthanded bats in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright continues to defy time. He has a 2.87 ERA. He's given up only three runs in 20 innings this month.

Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak.

This Eastern Conference Final is tied 2-2, but it's my clear belief the Celtics are the superior team. That's especially the case with the Heat dealing with so many injuries.

Boston has outscored Miami by 28 points in the series. The Celtics have outrebounded the Heat the past two games by an average of 15 1/2 boards. The Celtics are the top defensive team in the league. The Heat are not effective when they are being outrebounded and not hitting from beyond the arc. I don't see that pattern changing here. 

Being on the road shouldn't make a difference for the Celtics. Boston is 19-6-1 (76 percent) ATS in its last 26 away contests, including 5-1-1 ATS during the playoffs. 
Then there are the Miami injuries. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a sore knee. Tyler Herro has a sore quad. It's bothered his long-range shooting as he's made only one of 14 3-point shots during the series. Kyle Lowery is back playing, but he isn't right. He scored three points in the last game while having a negative 27 during his court time. 

I see the visiting Guardians hanging close to the Astros in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Christian Javier.

I like Javier but he could be due for some regression with a 2.87 ERA. His ERA the past two seasons have been 3.55 and 3.48.

Quantrill is a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.48 ERA. He's second on the Guardians in quality starts. He can be counted on to go at least six innings, which he has done in each of his last six starts.

This is important because while the Indians have a strong closer, Emmanuel Clase, they are vulnerable in middle relief. The Guardians have the least amount of blown saves in the league.

The prideful Blues, who won the Stanley Cup three seasons ago, are on the verge of elimination down, 3-1, to the Avalanche. I don't see the Blues going down easily.

Yes, the game is in Colorado. But the Avalanche have been far from dominant during their last three home games, losing to the Blues by three goals and winning the other two in overtime. The Avalanche have scored four goals in regulation during their last three home games.

There's been a lot of bad blood in this series. So I see a lot of intensity and tight checking rather than a clean, fast skating up-tempo game.

Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them.

The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games.

Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts.

Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class.

The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that.

Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game.

The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record.

Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss.

The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball.

Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts.

The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen.

The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS).

This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game.

The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss.

I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here.

I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. 

The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. 

Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. 

Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here. 

The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. 

The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. 

Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. 

There hasn't been more than six goals scored in any of the first three games of this Stanley Cup series. Each game has gone Under the posted 6 1/2 total. So now the oddsmaker has dropped the Over/Under to 6.

At this number, I'm going to get involved with the Over.

The Panthers led the NHL in scoring at 4.1 goals per game. But they've been totally held in check by Tampa Bay's defense and its star goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Down 3-0 in the series - and with nothing to lose at this impossible stage - I see the Panthers playing loose, taking chances and going all out to dent the Lightning's defense.

This could lead to multiple Tampa Bay goals if the Panthers should be trailing during the final few minutes of the third period.

The Lightning were the eighth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 3.5 goals. They are coming off a five-goal game.

I like getting the Rangers in this price range knowing they are in must-win mode and their defense and strong goaltending is back. New York has held the Hurricanes to three goals in regulation during the first two games of this series.

Never mind that the Avalanche and Blues are each top-four scoring teams, averaging 3.8 goals per game. It doesn't matter that the Avalanche have fired 85 shots on goal during the first two games of this series, or that the Over is 22-10-1 in St. Louis' last 33 games. Who cares that the Over is 6-1-1 the past eight times these two teams have played in St. Louis.

What matters is that the first two games of this series both went Under with the Avalanche winning, 3-2 in overtime, in Game 1 and the Blues upsetting Colorado, 4-1, in Game 2 this past Thursday. The important takeaway from those two games from a totals perspective is that the expected goals were much higher than what actually transpired.

I'm expecting the floodgates to finally open here with each team getting at least three goals.

The Avalanche were off their game in Game 2. They played too slow. Colorado is going to pick up the pace. The Avalanche wants a fast-paced game. They are going to force the action. The Blues remain without two veteran defensemen with Marco Scandella and Torey Krug both out. So there is some vulnerability.

The Blues are dangerous with all of their lines. They had nine players score 20 or more goals during the regular season. The Blues have scored four or more goals in nine of their last 11 home games.

I really like Toronto starter Alex Manoah, who is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA. Reds starter Hunter Greene has potential, but I don't think he's ready to be in a major league rotation yet. Even throwing 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Pirates last Sunday, Greene still is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA.

The Reds are 6-18 on the road. That's the most away losses in the majors.

Toronto has won 25 of its last 36 home games.

The Mavericks have proven resilient all season both on the court and on the sidelines where Jason Kidd has made necessary adjustments. 

So I see the Mavericks bouncing back in this Game 2 after being embarrassed, 112-87, by the Warriors in Game 1 this past Wednesday.

The Mavericks still might not have come down from their great upset Game 7 road win against the Suns this past Sunday. They will now after their deflating opening game blowout loss.

Dallas missed 20 of 28 uncontested 3-point shots. Luka Doncic was held in check, scoring a postseason-low 20 points on only 6-of-18 shooting from the floor. 
The Mavericks were the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. They bounced back from opening game losses to the Jazz and Sun to win those respective series. Kidd has made crucial right adjustments and tweaks all season. My respect for Kidd's coaching has gone way up this season. 

Even with that Game 1 blowout loss, the Mavericks still have covered 11 of the last 15 times against the Warriors. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Golden State.

The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field.

Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts.

Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. 

Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. 

So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. 

Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. 

Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. 

The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage. 

Expect more than the five goals that were scored in Game 1 when the Avalanche nipped the Blues, 3-2, in overtime.

These teams tied for the third-most goals during the regular season, each averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Colorado peppered Blues goalie Jordan Binnington with 54 shots with three hitting the post and two the crossbar. I'm not counting on the inconsistent Binnington playing that well and being that lucky again. St. Louis is likely to still be missing defensemen Marco Scandella and Torey Krug. The Avalanche did their scoring damage with their supporting cast. Their superstars are due to step up now.

The offensive-minded Blues have excellent scoring depth, too. The Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 road games.

Prior to Game 1, the teams had gone Over during their past six meetings.

I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. 

Colorado has shown some vulnerability during the second round of the playoffs the last few seasons. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues stole this first game of this series. So at this price, I'm throwing down on St. Louis.

The Avalanche could be dealing with serious rust having last played on May 9.

The Blues have won nine of their last 11 road games.

Colorado only outscored St. Louis by one goal during three regular season meetings.

The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl.

Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type.

The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field.

The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here.

Look for the Panthers to get this opening game, a game they've been pointing to ever since the Lightning eliminated them in the playoffs last season. Florida is much improved from a year ago setting a franchise record with 122 points, most in the league.

The Lightning still could be sucking wind after a hard-fought seven game series against the Maple Leafs that concluded Saturday night. Tampa Bay is 1-4 the past five times when playing on two days rest.

The Lightning also may be minus forward Brayden Point, who is doubtful after suffering a lower-body injury in Saturday's victory against Toronto.

The Panthers, the highest-scoring team in the NHL, are 48-11 in their last 59 home games.

If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. 

OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category.

The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. 

Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. 

Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. 

Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season.

There's no secrets or surprises at this late Game 7 stage. The Suns are the better team. The key question, though, is are they good enough to cover this mid-range number?

The answer is yes because their home court makes a huge difference.

The Suns are 3-0 SU and ATS at Footprint Center against the Mavericks in this series winning by an average of 19 points. Dallas has failed to cover in 10 of its past 13 visits to Phoenix.

Home teams in Game 7 NBA playoff history have won 79.1 percent of the time. This is a 134-game sampling.

The Suns have a scoring and rebounding edge in the paint. They also own an edge in free throw percentage. Luka Doncic is the best player on the court, but the Suns have the next three best players in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are true superstars. But this Game 7 is going to be about defense, incredible intensity and a slow, deliberate pace. 

Those ingredients spell Under. 

The Celtics were the No. 1 defensive team during the regular season. They've held the Bucks under their season average in five of the six games during the series. Milwaukee really misses its second-best offensive player, injured Kris Middleton. 

The Bucks are no slouches on the defensive end either. 

There have been fewer than 205 combined points scored in four of the six games in the series. So it doesn't figure that all of a sudden there is going to be a major scoring outburst in Game 7. 

The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. 

Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. 

The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. 

The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. 

I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado. 

I'm taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief the Oilers will wilt at home under the pressure of a Game 7. Even if they win, it will be by the narrowest of margins.

Edmonton hasn't won a playoff series in five years.

The Kings were an outstanding 23-11-7 on the road during the season. They are 2-1 on the road against the Oilers during this first-round series.

LA still has some veterans remaining from its Stanley Cup winning teams of 2012 and 2014. So the Kings know how to win important games.

The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night.

Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.

The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role.

The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season.

Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles.

Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts.

The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best.

The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties.

The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees.

I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays.

The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts.

Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays.

The Suns' defense showed up in Game 5 - a 110-80 home victory against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. I don't see Phoenix's defense going away in this Game 6 with the series shifting back to Dallas.

The spread is short because the Mavericks defeated the Suns in Games 3 and 4 in Dallas. But the Suns' defense is back to their elite level and Devin Booker is hot, averaging nearly 27 points in the series while making 16 of 32 shots from beyond the arc.

Luka Doncic is the only Dallas player who can be relied upon. Doncic, though, is not getting enough help. The Suns are holding a huge front-court edge and have the stronger bench.

Phoenix is the superior team. It's not asking too much of the Suns to just win this game - after a 30-point crushing victory in the game - before so they can move on to the Western Conference finals.

The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. 

So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. 

The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers.

Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts.

Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. 

The Maple Leafs haven't won a first-round playoff series in 18 years. I don't see them ending that streak with an upset road victory against the Lightning today.

Tampa Bay has won 70 percent of its last 113 home contests. Even more impressive is the Lightning are 17-0 in the playoffs following a loss. Toronto is up 3-2 in the series. The Lightning followed each of their losses in this series with multiple goal victories.

The highly-experienced two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have earned my respect and trust especially at home where they have the final say on line changes.

I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix.

The last time the Bucks received this many points was against the Celtics on the road in Game 1 of this series. Milwaukee won that game, 101-89. 

There's a certain yin/yang to this series with the teams alternating victories during the first four games. 

The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. I see Milwaukee keeping this one closer than the point spread indicates. 

Jayson Tatum is a great player. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the court. 

The Bucks lost Game 4 by eight points because they shot horrible, especially Jrue Holiday, who was 5-of-22 from the floor. The Bucks also were an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from inside the paint. The Celtics made 50 percent of their field goal attempts in Game 4. The Buck shot only 41 percent from the field. 

I don't see Holiday and Milwaukee's big men shooting nearly as poorly as they did in Game 4. 

Zig and Zag. Ebb and flow. Whatever you want to call it, the pattern often fits during NBA playoff series. I don't see this series being any different.

The Heat took advantage of home-court and Joel Embiid being out to win the first two games of the series. The 76ers returned home, got Embiid back and won the next two games to tie the series at 2-2.

Now it's Miami's turn to hold serve returning home. I have confidence in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra making the right adjustments and for Miami to turn things around at home in this Game 5.

The 76ers are 7-15 ATS following a victory. They have covered only two of their last 10 away games and are 1-6-1 ATS during their past eight games in Miami.

The Heat have covered seven of the last eight times they've been home.

Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher.

The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs.

It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. 

Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts. 

Even if it's just one point, I'm going to back an underdog that is superior. That's the case with the Celtics in Game 4 of their series with the Bucks.

Boston buried Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and should have won Game 3 this past Saturday on the road. The Bucks got a break on a bad call by the official late in the game to hold off the Celtics, 103-101.

The Celtics only lost by two points - and could have easily won - despite Jayson Tatum missing 15 of 19 shots from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and a number of his teammates had huge games for Milwaukee. Boston is capable of playing much better. The Bucks aren't without Khris Middleton, who is out with an MCL sprain.

The Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games while the Bucks are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine home games when taking on a foe with a winning road mark. Note, too, that since the calendar turned 2022 the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS off a loss.

So the track record is there for the Celtics to bounce back with a victory.

The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.

The combination of Joel Embiid back in the lineup and the 76ers being at home makes a huge difference. That was evident in Game 3 this past Friday night when the 76ers buried the Heat, 99-79.

I don't see the 76ers going from 20-point winners just two days ago to losing to Miami in this next game.

Embiid's return after missing the first two games of the series lifted the 76ers. Philadelphia now has the needed confidence and spark to even this series. It's this belief that has me taking the 76ers here.

During the past three postseasons, Tampa Bay has gone 16-0 following a playoff loss. That resiliency has been instrumental in the Lighting winning the Stanley Cup the past two years.

I see that streak continuing with the Lightning hosting the Maple Leafs Sunday.

Toronto opened the series with a 5-0 victory. The Lightning were flat that game. They came back to even the series with a 5-3 win on Wednesday, but then lost at home, 5-2, in Game 3 this past Friday. Tampa Bay couldn't overcome a 3-0 deficit.

The Lightning did outplay the Maple Leafs for much of the last two periods, especially the third period, but the damage had been done. Tampa Bay's core, which has been together for around a decade and used to playoff highs and lows, should rebound like they always have.

Toronto goalie Jack Campbell has been playing above his talent level. I can see a drop-off in his play with this game in Tampa. Having home ice also gives the Lightning the last line change. This is especially crucial for Tampa coach Jon Cooper in matching up against the Maple Leafs' upper tier line featuring superstar Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home.

Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties.

Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games.

While I certainly expect the Warriors to shoot better than they did in their last game, I don't believe the Grizzlies are getting enough respect on the betting line.

Since an opening playoff loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason with the two losses each coming by one point.

The Warriors have some outstanding players, but no one is playing at a higher level right now than Ja Morant. He could be in line for another huge performance with the Warriors minus a pair of their defensive standouts in injured Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala.

The Grizzlies will be without suspended Dillon Brooks, but are expected to get back big man Steven Adams. Memphis has a size advantage on Golden State.

Both teams should be fresh having not played since Tuesday. All the pressure is on the Warriors returning home. Golden State has failed to cover the last four times when favored.

The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times in an underdog role.