Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. 

Michigan State has the better bench and defense. The Wolverines lack the size and depth to cover this big of a margin against this foe. 

The Spartans have covered 18 of their last 24 Big Ten games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus Michigan. 

It's difficult to not think at least six goals will be scored here. 

The over is 18-3-3 in Minnesota's last 24 games. It's not a fluke with the Wild's up-and-down style and numerous scoring depth. 

Winnipeg is a big over team, too, going above the total in eight of its last nine games. That's not a fluke either as the Jets have a high scoring offense - ranking ninth in goals scored - while allowing the fourth-most goals in the league with below average defense and shaky goalie play. 

During their last 10 games, the Jets have averaged 3.6 goals, but given up an averge of 3.5 goals. 

Johnny Gaudreau has picked up his play lately and the Flames have scored 15 goals in their last four games. 

Calgary, though, is a below average defensive team. The Penguins can take advantage leading the league in goals scored while ranking No. 2 in shots on goal and power play goals.

Pittsburgh, like Calgary, has scored 15 goals in its past four games. 

The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games. 

The Sabres have scored three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. The over is 7-0-1 in Buffalo's past eight road contests. 

The Devils have scored 12 goals during their last three games. It's a great sign for the Devils that Taylor Hall broke out of his scoring slump scoring twice in New Jersey's last game, a 5-1 victory against the Blue Jackets.

It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever. Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that. Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown. The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players.  There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less.  The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high.  Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski. The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming.  It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go. 

Prop Bet Recommendations: I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions.

My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.

The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense.

The Kings have scored at least 109 points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors are going to get their points, but DeMarcus Cousins is a bad matchup inside for Golden State and the Kings have also been getting point guard production.

Minnesota is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 11 games. The Wild have gone consistently over, too, during their last 23 games posting a 17-3-3 mark to the over. Only three of those games had less than five goals scored in them. So I think this total is short.

The Wild play at a fast pace. This has resulted in them not only scoring but giving up three goals per game. Vancouver's offense gets a boost with the return of Jannik Hansen. 

The danger of playing this one over is the Canucks. However, the over is 3-0-1 the past four times the teams have met and Vancouver goalie Ryan Miller has a 3.40 GAA versus the Wild. 

Dallas has gone over the total in seven of its last home games. The Stars have scored 13 goals in their last three games showings signs of being as strong offensively as last season.

The Blackhawks are in the upper half of goals and have the skill position players to take advantage of Dallas' mediocre defense and goaltending. 

The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73.

Look for Texas Arlington to get revenge especially being fired-up after getting upset by Coastal Carolina in its last game. The Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.

The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break.  The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA.  

St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. 

Look for the Blues to come out strong at home in their first game under new coach Mike Yeo. The Blues have been inconsistent all season and it cost coach Ken Hitchcock his job even though this was to be his final season. 

The Rangers are the No. 2 goal scoring team in the NHL. But shaky goaltending makes the Rangers a good over team. They lost 6-4 to the Blue Jackets in their first game following the All-Star break. The over has cashed in 7 of the Rangers' last 8 road games.

Buffalo's defense has slipped lately as the Sabres have allowed 13 goals in their last three games.

The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak.  Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul.  The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points.  The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them.  Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks  When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that.  Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks.  New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating.  It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January.  This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's.  The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards.   The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.     

Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games.

Minnesota can take advantage averaging 112.3 in its last six games. The Timberwolves have a pair of legitimate stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. 

The over has cashed in Orlando's past six road contests. 

The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games.

These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor.

The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series.

Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high.

This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory.

The flip side of the handicap is Kansas State has more experience and mental toughness. The Wildcats also have proven themselves in tough road settings while covering five of their past six road matchups. 

First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto.  Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. 

Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. 

Cornell is just 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing foes with a winning road mark. The Big Red lack Harvard's depth, which could prove telling here. 

I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland.  The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings.  So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. 

This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt.

Notre Dame has too much offense for Virginia especially from 3-point range ranking ninth in the country in 3-point accuracy. The Irish also shoot much better from the free throw line. In fact, Notre Dame is No. 1 in the nation in free throw percentage at 82.9 while Virginia is a below average 69.4 percent. 

Toronto ranks third in shots on goal and power play goals. Only five teams score more per game than the Maple Leafs. Toronto has notched three or more goals in 11 of its last 13 games. Calgary is a below average defensive team. The Flames have allowed 11 goals in their last two games. They've scored 11 goals, though, during their past three games.  The Flames' matchup is helped by Morgan Rielly, the Maple Leafs' best defenseman, likely missing a third consecutive game due to an ankle injury. 

This is a rare day game. It's especially different for Golden State starting at 9:05 in the morning West Coast time. That's a plus for the under.

Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. 

It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. 

I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination. 

Cincinnati beat Tulane 92-56 earlier this season. The teams put up 172 points in their lone meeting last season. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Tulane has been an underdog. 

Cincinnati can win either by offense or defense. Against this particular opponent, I see the Bearcats winning with offense just like in the first meeting. 

I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013.

The Hooisers just lost OJ Anunoby for the season. That's a huge plus for the Spartans, who proved their road toughness by winning in overtime at Minnesota while also covering at Duke and only losing by five at Ohio State last week. 

The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them.

Fighting for their playoff lives, the Lightning consider their current six-game road trip crucial. The Lightning have stepped up, too, both on defense and in goal with Ben Bishop back from a lower body injury and looking like his old self. 

Minus Blake Griffin, the Clippers now are without Chris Paul. This will be their first game since losing Paul to a thumb injury on Monday. The Clippers haven't played since. I see them being well-prepared here having had two full days to game plan knowing Paul won't be available. Often times teams play well in their first game after losing a star player. The Clippers have a deep backcourt with J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton. Rivers is having the best season of his career and Redick is averaging nearly 20 points during the last seven games.  LA is playing well having won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The opponent is the 14-28 Timberwolves, who are playing in their third consecutive road game. Minnesota is 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS on the road this season.  The Clippers have held their last five opponents to less than 99 points a game. DeAndre Jordan gives LA a needed defensive presence to combat Karl-Anthony Towns. Jordan is No. 2 in rebounding in the league and ranks eighth in blocked shots.  

The total opened too high here. LaSalle hasn't broken 69 points the past four times playing Davidson. There hasn't been more than 146 points scored during the past four meetings between the two schools.

Not only is Davidson playing better defense this season, but its tempo is slower, too. That's a good under combination. The under has cashed 13 of the last 16 times Davidson has been a road underdog. 

San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team.

The Aztecs beat the Rebels by 15 at UNLV last season and then clobbered the Rebels, 92-56, in their final meeting. The Rebels could manage to average only 54 points versus the Aztecs last year and are worse this season. 

The Rebels are shooting only 36 percent from the field in their last five games. By contrast, opponents are hitting 48 percent of their field goals during this span. 

San Diego State has a front court edge with big man Malik Pope. Put it all together and this is a cheap price to lay with a much superior foe. 

I understand the risk of trying to make an under work against the Houston Rockets of Mike D'Antoni. Only Golden State averages more points than the Rockets' 114.9. Houston launches 3-pointers like no other team and they don't wait to do it either. The flip side, however, is the Heat. They are averaging the second-fewest points in the league at 98.3.  So we have a real contrast in tempo and style here. The situation, though, favors the Heat and a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker perceives.  Miami just completed a six-game road trip that concluded on Friday. This is the Heat's first game since then. So they are going to have lots of energy. The Heat use that energy to play defense especially at home where they have scored fewer than 99 points in five of their past six games at American Airlines Arena. This opinion is further enforced with the under cashing in seven of Miami's last nine home games following a road trip of seven of more days.  Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is defensive-minded and no dummy. He knows his talent can't matchup athletically to the Rockets especially with promising youngsters Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson out. So the Heat are going to look inside to Hassan Whiteside and try to methodically pound inside against the Rockets while trying to take off as much clock as possible thus shortening the game.  The Rockets are in flat spot. They just blew out the hapless Nets by scoring 137 points two days ago. The Rockets immediately fly back to Houston following this game for a home game against the Bucks on Wednesday. The Rockets then have a marquee home matchup against Golden State on Friday. So don't look for the Rockets to be going all out here, or extending any minutes to their starters. They also could be getting center Clint Capela back. He's been out since Dec. 17 with a broken bone in his leg. The Rockets would try to get Capela involved if he plays against this weak opponent and he figures to be rusty.  Based on this situation, too, there's the possibility superstar James Harden could see fewer than normal minutes. That would be a bonus for the under.