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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-10-19	Pepperdine v. Santa Clara -115		64-67	Win	100	7 h 31 m	Show
Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here.
01-10-19	Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6	Top	3-2	Loss	-103	21 h 6 m	Show
The Sharks have the two best offensive defensemen in the NHL with Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns. It is showing, too, as the Sharks have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 15 games. San Jose has been particularly hot lately averaging 5.1 goals in its last seven games. The Golden Knights have scored at least three goals in eight of their last 10 games. They can take advantage of the Sharks likely to be without defensemen Marc Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun, both of whom have been out with injuries.
01-10-19	Clippers v. Nuggets -6		100-121	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
The Clippers are fat and happy after consecutive home wins against Orlando and Charlotte. Now, though, they have to step up on the road against the Nuggets, who are in revenge mode and have been playing well all season. I don't see it happening for the Clippers. The Nuggets are 6-1 in their last seven games and have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They have the far superior defense and an edge up front with Nikola Jokic.
01-10-19	UCLA v. Oregon OVER 141.5		87-84	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
UCLA isn't a particularly good defensive team. Oregon is, or make that was. The Ducks rank first in the Pac-12 in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage, but that is going to change. The Ducks lost their defensive presence with injuries to 7-foot-2 Bol Bol and 6-foot-8 Kenny Wooten. Oregon just surrendered 77 points to Oregon State in its last game. That was nearly four points more than the Beavers were averaging on the season. The Bruins are a different team, too, because of the coaching change from Steve Alford to interim coach Murry Bartow. In two games under Bartow, the Bruins scored 92 points versus Stanford and 98 against Cal. They are much more up-tempo under Bartow than they were under Alford, who is a Bobby Knight disciple.
01-10-19	Michigan -9 v. Illinois		79-69	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games.
01-10-19	Islanders -127 v. Rangers		4-3	Win	100	3 h 59 m	Show
The Islanders have dominated this series winning 12 of the past 14 times. However, they lost 5-0 to the Rangers on Nov. 21. The Islanders want revenge for that loss. They had won the previous eight times against the Rangers. The Rangers are not playing well to say the least, outscored by 17 goals in opening 0-4 in 2019. Look for Robin Lehner back in net for the Islanders. He has been hot going 7-0 in his last seven starts while giving up only eight goals.
01-09-19	Pistons v. Lakers -117		100-113	Win	100	22 h 49 m	Show
No, LeBron James isn't back. But Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are. Given those two along with Lonzo Ball and playing at home following a confidence-building road victory against the Mavericks this past Monday gives a buy sign to the Lakers. The Lakers' 107-97 road win against the Mavericks is impressive. Dallas was 15-3 at home entering that game. The Pistons are back in lottery territory following a strong start to the season. They are 4-14 in their last 18 games. Detroit has lost and failed to cover in four of its past five road matchups. The Pistons' lone away victory during this span came against the struggling Grizzlies, who are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games. The Lakers have covered seven of the last eight times they have hosted the Pistons.
01-09-19	Predators v. Blackhawks OVER 6		4-3	Win	100	19 h 32 m	Show
Watching the Blackhawks it's easy to see why they give up the second-most goals per game in the NHL: They don't play much defense. The Blackhawks are particularly vulnerable when the other team has a man advantage ranking last in penalty killing. The Predators have picked up their scoring averaging four goals a game during their last six games. The Blackhawks have been respectable offensively, too, averaging 3.3 goals per game in their last nine matchups. Chicago has improved its power play moving up to 24th after ranking last. Chicago is 10-for-30 on the power play during its last 10 games.
01-09-19	Ohio State v. Rutgers UNDER 134		61-64	Win	100	7 h 50 m	Show
Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game. These teams averaged 122.5 points during their two games last season. Both are contend to keep the pace slow. So Under is the way to look.
01-08-19	Wolves v. Thunder -8		119-117	Loss	-108	18 h 52 m	Show
Sometimes a team gets a psychological lift in their first game following a coaching change. I don't see that happening, though, with the Timberwolves in this matchup after they fired Tom Thibodeau on Sunday. Oklahoma City is in revenge mode from a home loss to Minnesota just two weeks ago. That was a rare road victory for the Timberwolves, who have played far worse away from Target Center going 5-15 SU, 8-12 in their away games. The Thunder are one of the top-seven teams in the NBA. The Timberwolves are a below .500 club. Motivation is key for Oklahoma City, which has a winning spread mark at home and is 5-2 ATS the past seven times laying 7 or more points. The Thunder lost at home to the Wizards in embarrassing fashion, 116-98, this past Sunday getting dominated on the boards and defense. Those are two of the Thunder's strong areas. The Thunder went into that matchup against the Wizards fat and happy returning home after going 2-0 on a West Coast trip beating the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The Thunder are too professional and have too much superstar talent with Russell Westbrook and Paul George to suffer a second straight home loss to an inferior opponent especially with revenge motivation. The Timberwolves may not have their full focus as the firing of Thibodeau was a surprise coming after the team had blown out the Lakers at home for their second win in a row. Thibodeau not only was the head coach, but also president of basketball operations. It's a distracting and unexpected move. Now the Timberwolves have to play a far superior opponent on the road just two days later. Untested 32-year-old Ryan Saunders is the Timberwolves' interim coach. I don't see him enjoying success in this spot.
01-08-19	Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5	Top	74-85	Loss	-108	17 h 24 m	Show
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
01-07-19	Nuggets v. Rockets -117		113-125	Win	100	19 h 60 m	Show
Kudos to the Nuggets. It's nearly halfway through the NBA regular season and Denver has the best record in the Western Conference. The Rockets, though, should be ready for the Nuggets at home. Houston has picked up its pace since a slow beginning and is playing extremely well despite being without Chris Paul. The Rockets are 11-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games. They just lost, though, on the road to the Trail Blazers this past Saturday, Among the Rockets' wins during this current 13-game span have been against the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers when they had LeBron James and Trail Blazers. Houston is 8-0-1 ATS in its past nine home games. Denver has won five in a row. But its last four victories have all come against below .500 teams - Suns, Knicks, Kings and Hornets. Those teams are a combined 44 games under .500. The Nuggets have failed to cover five of their last six road games. They have a losing road spread mark on the season.
01-07-19	Alabama v. Clemson +5.5	Top	16-44	Win	100	115 h 3 m	Show
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama. Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation. The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games. Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.
01-07-19	Blues v. Flyers -113		3-0	Loss	-113	17 h 3 m	Show
There's a due factor that should kick in for the Flyers here. They are in full circle-the-wagons mode having lost six in a row with nearly all of those defeats coming in close games. The Blues aren't a good team and they have lost three of their last four games. St. Louis averages just 2.2 goals on the road where they are 6-9. St. Louis has dropped eight of its last nine matchups versus sub .500 opponents and are 1-4 during its past five visits to Philadelphia. Backup Blues goalie Jordan Binnington will make his first career start. He has an unispiring 3.51 GAA and .840 save percentage in three relief appearances. The Flyers are going with Carter Hart in net. He has been the Flyers' best goalie.
01-06-19	Blackhawks v. Penguins OVER 6		5-3	Win	100	5 h 58 m	Show
The Blackhawks give up the second-most goals and are last in stopping power plays. The Penguins are hot on the power play scoring 69 percent of the time on their last 13 attempts. Pittsburgh has scored at least 3 goals in six straight games. The Blackhawks have a respectable offense and can contribute their share of goals. The Penguins have been putting up good defensive numbers, but haven't faced many good offenses recently. The Over is 13-6-3 in Chicago's last 20 games.
01-06-19	Chargers +3 v. Ravens	Top	23-17	Win	100	39 h 22 m	Show
The Chargers are that rare team that plays better on the road than at home. The reason for this is they really don't have a home-field advantage playing at sparsely populated StubHub Center in Southern California. The Chargers are 8-0, though, in games outside of Southern California. They have won in five different time zones and won't be intimidated here. The forecast for Sunday in Baltimore is sunny with temperatures in the 40s with around a 10-12 mph wind. So it's not like the Chargers are going into frigid conditions. Baltimore dominated the Chargers, 22-10, on the road just two weeks ago. Until that loss, the Chargers were in the argument for best team in the league. So maybe they needed a loss like that to sharpen them up and energize their focus. There is no secret to the Ravens. They are going to pound the ball, play for field position and rely on their excellent defense. The Chargers won't be ambushed again by the Ravens. Baltimore beat the Chargers after LA had knocked off the Chiefs the previous week on the road. So it wasn't a great spot for the Chargers. I respect the Ravens. Their defense is better than the Chargers. John Harbaugh is an above average coach, while Anthony Lynn is untested in playoff games. But I believe the Chargers are the better all-around team. Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen give the Chargers the best skill position players. The Chargers also get back big-play tight end Hunter Henry for the first time this season. They also have change-of-pace Austin Ekeler back. He missed the first game against the Ravens. Ekeler is a key because he's good pass-catching back and can hurt the Ravens via screen passes, which would slow down the Ravens' pass rush. The Chargers know what's coming. They are going to be prepared for Baltimore's ground attack by loading up the box. Lamar Jackson is an outstanding running QB, but he's not a good downfield passer.
01-06-19	Hurricanes v. Senators UNDER 6.5		5-4	Loss	-110	9 h 23 m	Show
Carolina is playing for the third time in four days. Note this is a day game with an early start. So the Hurricanes are likely to have heavy legs, which should mean more of a slow tempo, defensive-minded effort. The Hurricanes haven't given up more than three goals during their last seven games. They have been a strong Under team on the road, too, going below the total in 69 percent of their past 16 away matchups. The Senators haven't broken the three-goal barrier during regulation in their last nine games. The under has cashed five of the past six times these two teams have met.
01-05-19	Lightning -115 v. Sharks		2-5	Loss	-115	21 h 36 m	Show
I'll take my chances at this low lay price with the Lightning, winners of 18 of their past 20 games including the last seven. Tampa Bay has scored at least four goals in 10 of its past 11 games. San Jose just lost two defensemen to injuries in their last game, steady Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun. San Jose has allowed four or more goals in five of its last seven games. The Lightning lead the NHL in goals averaging 4.2 per game. The Lightning have been on the West Coast for nearly a week, while the Sharks just finished a three-game road trip. San Jose has lost in three of its last four home games.
01-05-19	Lightning v. Sharks OVER 6.5		2-5	Win	100	21 h 35 m	Show
I'll take my chances at this low lay price with the Lightning, winners of 18 of their past 20 games including the last seven. Tampa Bay has scored at least four goals in 10 of its past 11 games. San Jose just lost two defensemen to injuries in their last game, steady Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun. San Jose has allowed four or more goals in five of its last seven games. The Lightning lead the NHL in goals averaging 4.2 per game. The Lightning have been on the West Coast for nearly a week, while the Sharks just finished a three-game road trip. San Jose has lost in three of its last four home games.
01-05-19	Seahawks v. Cowboys -125	Top	22-24	Win	100	50 h 15 m	Show
Those who like Seattle in this matchup point to the Seahawks' playoff experience and coaching/quarterback edges thanks to Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson. But the Seahawks have failed to cover in five of their last six playoff games. Dak Prescott isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson and I would take Carroll over Jason Garrett. But the Cowboys hold most of the other edges not to mention home field and having had the opportunity to rest Ezekiel Elliott last Sunday. Elliott trumps any of Seattle's running back. The Cowboys are healthier in the trenches and have the superior defense. Both teams rely on the run to set up play-action. Dallas has the better offensive line. Seattle has a key defensive injury with cornerback Shaquill Griffin dealing with an ankle injury. Griffin would be lining up opposite Amari Cooper, who caught 53 passes for 725 yards and six touchdowns in just nine games for the Cowboys providing Dallas with a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The Cowboys also found a late-season hidden weapon, second-year tight end Blake Jarwin. He had 228 receiving yards in Dallas' last four games while scoring three touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17. The Cowboys defense ranks in the top-seven in fewest points, fewest yards and run defense. Seattle was 16th in yards allowed, 13th in run defense and 11th in scoring defense. Bobby Wagner is the Seahawks' lone defensive star. The Cowboys have an elite pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence, a top-notch cornerback, Byron Jones, and two emerging star linebackers, Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. It's an added plus if Sean Lee is healthy enough to give them anything. Dallas' home field advantage can't be minimized either. It's huge. Dallas is 7-1 at home. The Cowboys held the Saints to a season-low 10 points at AT&T Stadium. Seattle is 4-4 on the road. The Seahawks' away victories came against the Cardinals, Lions, Panthers and Raiders - all below .500 teams.
01-05-19	Northern Illinois v. Ohio -3.5		72-66	Loss	-109	10 h 47 m	Show
Northern Illinois enters this matchup off a deflating 88-60 loss to eighth-ranked Michigan State last Saturday. The Huskies hadn't met an opponent that high ranked since 1996. The Huskies are 1-4 on the road this season. They didn't beat a MAC team on the road last season. You have to go back to Feb. 21 of 2017 to find the last time Northern Illinois beat a MAC team away from home. Ohio is 7-0 at home. The Bobcats have covered seven of their last 10 home games. The Bobcats defeated the Huskies, 78-68, at home last season. That was the fourth straight time they have covered against the Huskies.
01-04-19	Buffalo -11 v. Eastern Michigan		74-58	Win	100	12 h 49 m	Show
Eastern Michigan has been one of the worst college basketball teams against the spread this season failing to cover in eight of its nine lined games. The Eagles have lost six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in four of those last six points. I think this line is short so I'm going to ride with 12-1 Buffalo, which has proven itself on the road covering five of six lined away games. The Bulls have defeated much better teams on the road, including West Virginia and Syracuse. The 20th-ranked Bulls should be focused since this is their Mid-American Conference opener.
01-04-19	Wizards v. Heat -6.5	Top	109-115	Loss	-109	19 h 18 m	Show
Quietly Miami has been on a monster point spread run covering 13 of its last 16 games. Look for the Heat to cover another game as this matchup against the Wizards sets up well for them. Washington has been terrible on the road lately losing and failing to cover its past seven away matchups. The Wizards have lost by at least seven points in each of their past seven road defeats. This includes lopsided losses to teams much worse than the Heat, including falling to the Pistons by 16 points and 15 points to the Cavaliers. The Heat should dominate the paint against the Wizards, who are a weak rebounding team and rank second-to-last in scoring defense. The Wizards are minus John Wall and thin up front with Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris out. This has drained Washington's bench. The Heat, though, just got Dion Waiters back from injury boosting their rotation. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Bradley Beal with Wall out. Miami ranks third in defensive field goal percentage and give up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league.
01-03-19	Raptors v. Spurs -120	Top	107-125	Win	100	18 h 41 m	Show
The Spurs have covered 75 percent of their last 32 home games. They have defeated the Raptors nine consecutive times at AT&T Center going 6-2-1 ATS. San Antonio is playing well going 10-3 in its last 13 games, while the Raptors are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS during their past five road games. So it's not too much to ask the Spurs to win this matchup especially considering how bad the Raptors have looked recently on the road. Toronto's last four road defeats have been by 29 points to the Magic, 25 to the 76ers, nine to the Nuggets and six to the Trail Blazers. The Spurs are going to be super motivated, too, for this matchup since it marks the return of Kawhi Leonard to San Antonio. There is bad blood between the Spurs and Leonard following last season when Leonard played in only nine games for San Antonio. The Raptors face San Antonio short-handed without point guard Kyle Lowery, their second-best player, and center Jonas Valanciunas. Lowery has a back injury that has kept him out of eight of the past nine games while Valanciunas isn't expected back for another four weeks due to a thumb injury.
01-03-19	Hurricanes v. Flyers -109		5-3	Loss	-109	16 h 59 m	Show
The Flyers are really pointing to this game, having lost 3-1 to the Hurricanes on the road Monday. It's the Flyers' first home game since Dec. 22. Philadelphia is 3-5 in its last eight games with four of those defeats occurring on the road. The Flyers have played better than their recent 3-5 record indicates losing by one goal to Columbus, by one goal to Tampa Bay in overtime and by one goal to Florida after leading most of the game. Carolina is 4-10 in its last 14 games. The Hurricanes have scored one or fewer goals in four of their last six games. They also have lost in five of their last seven visits to Philadelphia.
01-02-19	Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	69-55	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
01-02-19	Heat -6 v. Cavs	Top	117-92	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
Just two games ago, Miami hosted Cleveland. Final score: Heat 118, Cavaliers 94. While I don't expect the Heat to bury the Cavaliers on the road by that much in this short turnaround, I do expect them to cover this spread. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last nine games, including the past six. They have failed to reach 100 points in five of their last seven games. The Heat rank third in defensvie field goal percentage and seventh in fewest points allowed. Miami is on a nice point spread run covering 12 of its last 15 games. The Heat are 8-1 ATS during their past nine road matchups. The Heat, though, shouldn't lack motivation or being overconfident having lost their last game. That was at home to Minnesota, 113-104, this past Sunday. It was the most points Miami had allowed in its last 15 games. Cleveland is the third-lowest scoring team in the NBA. The Cavaliers are playing at home for the first time in more than a week having concluded a three-game road trip this past Saturday. They could be rusty and unfocused after had a long holiday break following their last game. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS on three or more days rest. The Cavaliers have permitted 110 or more points in five of their last six games.
01-02-19	Canucks v. Senators +118		4-3	Loss	-100	19 h 47 m	Show
Ottawa is far more respectable when playing at home going 11-7-3. The Senators begin a three-game homestand against the Canucks attempting to halt a five-game losing streak. However, three of those defeats occurred on the road and the other two were at home to the defending Stanley Cup champion Capitals, including a one-goal loss. The Senators' last game was a 6-3 road loss to the Blue Jackets on Monday. That game was far closer, though, than the final score. The game was tied with 2:01 left. Columbus scored three goals during the last 2:01, including two empy-netters. Vancouver is playing its fourth road game in seven days. The Cancuks aren't a great road club having lost 36 of their past 53 away matchups and are 2-5 in their last seven games versus the Senators.
01-01-19	Texas +13.5 v. Georgia		28-21	Win	100	24 h 51 m	Show
Not sure of Georgia's motivation for this game after playing for the national title game last season and falling short against Alabama this season. I'm not doubting the Bulldogs' talent. But Texas is going to be up for this game. The Longhorns never lack talent either and they have the best underdog coach going for them in Tom Herman. How good of a 'dog coach is Herman? If you take his last four jobs as offensive coordinator and head coach his teams are 23-2 ATS for 92 percent when taking points! Texas has a pair of dangerous big-play versatile receivers in Collin Johnson and Lil' Jordan Humphrey. The Bulldogs are without their top defensive back, Deandre Baker, who is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft.
01-01-19	Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 212.5		116-122	Loss	-114	16 h 11 m	Show
Down point guard Kyle Lowry and center Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors have hit a scoring drought. They scored only 87 points against the Magic and 95 points versus the Bulls in their last two games. Now Toronto faces Utah, which has a far better defense than the Magic and Bulls. The Jazz give up the fifth-fewest points in the league. Utah has held five of its past nine opponents to 97 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in eight of Utah's last nine games and five of the Jazz's past six road games. The Jazz rank 24th in scoring. Toronto ranks eighth in defense. The Jazz are reliant on second-year man Donovan Mitchell, who is having a down year so far shooting .41.1 percent from the floor after connecting on 43.7 of his shots last season. Playing on New Year's Day is a plus for the Under, too, following New Year's Eve.
01-01-19	Washington v. Ohio State -6	Top	23-28	Loss	-110	20 h 22 m	Show
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls. Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense. When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game. I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.
12-31-18	NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5	Top	13-52	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Both teams rank among the top 26 in scoring. NC State averages 35.6 points. Texas A&M averages 34.7 points. So I find this total short. Neither defense can is strong enough to slow the other offense down. North Carolina State has a stud QB in Ryan Finley. He has a deep group of receivers to throw, including Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers. Both of whom had more than 1,000 yards receiving this season. The Wolfpack have gone Over in each of their last eight neutral site games. The Over has cashed in each of North Carolina State's last six bowl games. Texas A&M has gone Over in six of its last seven nonconference games. The Aggies have one of the best running backs in college football, Trayveon Williams, and also one of the better tight ends, Jace Sternberger, who had 804 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
12-31-18	Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10		33-38	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
If Missouri is the better team here, the Tigers aren't more than a touchdown better than Oklahoma State. Both offenses are strong. Missouri has the better defense, but Oklahoma State can score on any team. The Cowboys rank 14th in scoring and 10th in yardage. QB Taylor Cornelius is one of the most dangerous dual threats in the country. Cornelius is backed by talented running backs. The Tigers didn't see a lot of wide open attacks like Oklahoma State has playing in the SEC. The Tigers have good skill position talent, too, but Drew Lock doesn't have Cornelius' mobility and the Tigers could be missing several of their weapons with running back Damarea Crockett, wide receiver Jalen Knox and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam all banged-up. The Cowboys have been point spread gold in nonleague games covering eight of their past nine nonconference matchups.
12-31-18	Hawks v. Pacers -11.5		108-116	Loss	-118	11 h 60 m	Show
Indiana has the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Atlanta has the worst defense in the league. The difference is the Pacers surrendering an average of 17 fewer points per game than the Hawks. Throw in a strong situational spot favoring Indiana and the possibility the Hawks could be without maybe their third best player, Kent Bazemore, and this spread doesn't seem so high. The Pacers are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference at 24-12. They are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have won four in a row. The Pacers last played on Friday. They are 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing on two days rest. Indiana doesn't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Hawks are in action for the fourth time in six days and third in four days. This is an early start time, too, which does the Hawks no favors almost making this a back-to-back game. Atlanta enters the matchup fat and happy with consecutive victories, including upsetting the Timerwolves in overtime as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog. Atlanta may be without Bazemore. The shooting guard is questionable with an ankle injury.
12-31-18	Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways. Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith. When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.
12-30-18	Kings v. Lakers +1.5	Top	114-121	Win	100	22 h 51 m	Show
LeBron James isn't likely to play because of a groin injury suffered on Christmas Day. But the Lakers are going to go all out here after losing their first two games without James. The first game the Lakers played without James was this past Thursday against the Kings on the road. The Lakers built a 15-point lead with 6:44 left in the game. The Kings came all the way back to win, 117-116, with Bogdan Bogdanovic sinking a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Sacramento the victory. Stunned by that loss, the Lakers were buried the next day by the Clippers. Now the Lakers have had a full day to regroup. LA doesn't lack talent without James. They have Brandom Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Kevin Kuzma. The Kings are an improved team, but their young core isn't as talented as the Lakers. The Lakers are home, highly motivated and getting points against a team they are least the equal of without James.
12-30-18	Colts -3 v. Titans		33-17	Win	100	74 h 48 m	Show
The Colts knocked out Marcus Mariota when they played the Titans in Week 11. The Colts buried the Titans, 38-10, in that game. Andrew Luck torched the Titans for 297 yards passing and three touchdowns. Luck is 10-0 lifetime versus Tennessee. Luck is an elite quarterback and now, for the first time, has an elite pass-blocking offensive line. The Colts are very underrated defensively giving up the 11th fewest yards and 13th fewest points. I expect Mariota to start for the Titans. But he's not likely 100 percent and he's not that good even when he is healthy unable to consistenly hurt a defense with downfield throws. The Titans' strategy has become feed Derrick Henry and rely on a good - but not great - defense. The Colts rank eighth in run defense. They are going to stack the line keying on Henry. Then what for the Titans? I don't see them being able to keep up with Luck, who is back to elite status and has found a decent running back in Marlon Mack. If the Colts are able to build a big early lead the Titans are in real trouble because that would take Henry out of the mix. The Colts have been playing extremely well going 8-1 in their last nine games, charging hard for a playoff spot. I believe they are the better team with the much superior quarterback. The Titans' home field is strong, but not strong enough to compensate for them being the weaker foe.
12-30-18	Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos		23-9	Win	100	112 h 53 m	Show
Despite getting manhandled last week by the Ravens, the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 11-4 and rank in the top 10 both offensively and defensively. The Chargers need this game in their hunt to finish with the best record in the AFC and win the AFC West Division title. They will be playing hard especially following their bad performance against the Ravens. The Broncos are a shot team done in by injuries, low morale and a coach who barring a miracle won't be with the team next season. Denver is reeling as the regular season comes to a conclusion losing the past three weeks to the 49ers, Browns and Raiders this past Monday night. The Broncos are 11-20 under Vance Joseph, who has impressed no one with his coaching blunders. Denver is down three key players - cornerback Chris Harris, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and now its star rookie running back Phillip Lindsay, who suffered a wrist injury against the Raiders. LA is much the better team and has motivation. The Chargers have the best road mark in the NFL at 6-1 SU and ATS. They have posted road victories against much stronger teams than the Broncos beating the Chiefs, Steelers and Seahawks.
12-30-18	Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5		3-35	Win	100	70 h 33 m	Show
When is it OK to lay two touchdowns in a division game? The answer is right here. This is a kill spot for the high-powered Chiefs off two straight losses and looking for a big win to regain momentum for the playoffs. No team gains more yards or scores more points than the Chiefs, who average 35.3 points per game. Patrick Mahomes should be the MVP of the league with his 48 TD passes, which is 12 more than second-place Andrew Luck. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points a game. The Raiders are traveling on a short week after getting a bit of redemption for their disaster of a first season under Jon Gruden having just beaten the Broncos on national TV Monday. I see the Raiders being fat and happy after that win. They don't have nearly the talent to hang against the Chiefs on the road unless they produce an "A" effort. Gruden is going to be around a long time for the Raiders after signing a 10-year contract. I don't see the Raiders entering this matchup with a lot of urgency. They just want this season to be over with. Oakland is 1-6 on the road with the lone victory coming by two points against the punchless Cardinals, who are the opposite of the Chiefs with the worst offense in the NFL. Just two weeks ago the Raiders traveled to Cincinnati and lost by 14 points to the hapless Bengals surrendering 30 points to an outfit that is down their starting quarterback and their three best receivers. The Raiders have lost four road games by 14 points or more. Defense has been Kansas City's major weakness. The Chiefs, though, are giving up a respectable 20.1 points a game when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. The return of star safety Eric Berry improves their defense, too.
12-30-18	Cardinals +14 v. Seahawks		24-27	Win	100	68 h 53 m	Show
I understand the Cardinals are dog excrement. They are 3-12 and headed toward getting the No. 1 draft pick. Steve Wilks has been a dismal failure and is likely to be one-and-out as the Cardinals head coach. However ...The Seahawks have no incentive to pile up a big victory here. They clinched a playoff spot this past week. Even if they beat the Cardinals the best they can be is a No. 5 seed. That means the Seahawks may not play Russell Wilson and some of their other key players the entire game. The Seahawks are not some dominant, elite team. Their defense is opportunistic rather than outstanding with 24 takeaways. The Cardinals have better talent than their record shows with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson. Arizona nearly forced overtime in the first meeting. The Seahawks won, 20-17, on a 52-year field goal with no time left. The Seahawks have won nine games. Only two of those victories, though, were by more than 14 points.
12-30-18	Dolphins v. Bills -3	Top	17-42	Win	100	140 h 13 m	Show
The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. They are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their past six away matchups. The Dolphins are not going to the playoffs and likely will have a new coach and management team in place next season. The warm-weathered Dolphins have no interest in traveling to Buffalo where the forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with wind and a 30 percent chance of snow. That's the situational aspect. The fundamental matchup is the Bills have the superior defense and a far more mobile quarterback. Miami ranks third-from-the-bottom in both yards allowed and fewest yards gained. Ryan Tanneheill is a mediocre quarterback, who is even less effective because of a sore ankle. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in pass defense and also gives up the second-fewest yards in the league. The Bills' defense is far more respectable than Miami's. Josh Allen provides a spark for the Bills on offense. He's already one of the best running quarterbacks having rushed for 100 yards twice this season. The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, when the teams met in Week 13. The Dolphins won, though, 21-17. The Bills should have taken a late lead but Charles Clay dropped a throw in the end zone with 53 seconds left.
12-29-18	Blackhawks v. Avalanche -1.5		3-2	Loss	-100	19 h 25 m	Show
Not only are the Avalanche in circle-the-wagons mode, but they are in a big revenge spot, too, after the Blackhawks surprised them, 2-1, at Colorado eight days ago. Blackhawks third-string rookie goalie Collin Delia made 35 saves in his season debut to thwart the Avalanche. The Avalanche were minus $2.45 favorites against the Blackhawks. Stunned by that loss, Colorado went on the road and lost to the Coyotes and Golden Knights. Now they are back home for the rematch against Chicago and heavy favorites once again. So I'm laying the 1 1/2 goals to knock off the heavy juice and get a plus price in what I envision as a kill spot for the superior Avalanche. Colorado is sixth in the NHL in goals per game. The Blackhawks have the worst defense in the league. The Avalanche have film and first-hand scouting reports now on Delia. The Blackhawks are traveling after beating the Wild at home on Thursday, 5-2. The Wild have lost five in a row so the Blackhawks hosted them at a good time. Chicago is 8-23 following a victory and 2-7 the past nine times when playing on one day rest.
12-29-18	Oregon v. Boise State UNDER 134		62-50	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
These same two teams met just two weeks ago and Oregon won, 66-54, at home for a combined total of 120. That stayed well under the 133 lined total. Oregon didn't have its leading scorer, center Bol Bol, for that game. He's out for this game, too. The Ducks average 61 points without him. Oregon is a strong under team. The Ducks rank 35th defensively and have slowed their pace. The under has cashed in five of their past six games. Boise State is a better defensive team than an offensive one. The Broncos don't push pace either. These teams are familar with each other. So I see another low-scoring game.
12-29-18	Rockets -125 v. Pelicans		108-104	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
The Rockets are back playing like the Rockets again. Houston is playing better than anyone winning eight of its last nine. The Rockets have knocked off tough opponents, too, during this span beating the Celtics, Thunder, Spurs, Jazz, Grizzlies, Lakers and Trail Blazers. Houston's lone defeat in this time frame came on the road to the Heat when the Rockets were playing without rest. Now the Rockets draw the Pelicans without rest. New Orleans was super extended in getting past the pesky Mavericks, 114-112, on Friday in a revenge spot. Dallas had defeated New Orleans on Wednesday. Anthony Davis had a huge game on Friday with 48 points and 17 rebounds. He also played nearly 43 minutes. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days. The Pelicans are one of the weakest defensive teams in the league ranking 26th. James Harden is on fire averaging 40.5 points during the last eight games. Houston is averaging 120 points in its last two games. The Rockets aren't going to lack motivation either. The Pelicans embarrassed them early in the season with a 131-112 home win on Houston's opening night.
12-29-18	Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57	Top	3-30	Win	100	21 h 17 m	Show
Clemson's Travis Etienne and Notre Dame's Dexter Williams are two excellent running backs. I expect a lot of carries for these two backs given the high quality of these defenses and the inexperience of each team's quarterback when going against an elite defense. Running the ball eats clock. So given this high of a total, Under is the way to go. Notre Dame ranks 10th in scoring defense allowing just 17.2 points a game. The Irish do not give up big plays, which has been a staple of Clemson's quick-strike offense. Clemson also doesn't give up big plays. The Tigers rank fourth in the country in both fewest yards and fewest points allowed. I don't see Notre Dame QB Ian Book having too much success against the Tigers. The Irish defense, with their strong defensive front, can contain Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence.
12-29-18	South Carolina v. Virginia +5		0-28	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
Virginia has steadily improved under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers reached a bowl game last season and now they are ready to win one after getting crushed by Navy, 49-7, in a bowl game that was more like a home game for the Midshipmen. South Carolina has a strong passing attack. However the Gamecocks have two things against them. They won't have their best wideout, Deebo Samuel, who is sitting out for personal reasons. And they are facing a strong Virginia secondary that ranked 14th in the nation in pass defense. The Cavaliers have an excellent quarterback in Bryce Perkins, a dual threat who accounted for 3,314 all-purpose yards and 31 touchdowns. South Carolina will be without two injured defensive starters, too, tackle Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon.
12-28-18	Iowa State +3 v. Washington State	Top	26-28	Win	100	80 h 16 m	Show
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored. Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year. Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew. I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games. Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler. I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher.
12-28-18	Nets v. Hornets -4.5		87-100	Win	100	19 h 22 m	Show
The Hornets just have to wait two days to get redemption. That's how long their last game was, which happened to be a 134-132 overtime road loss to the Nets on Wednesday. The Hornets blew an eight-point lead during the final three-plus minutes of regulation. The Nets are improved and playing well. But Charlotte is the better team and has the best player, Kemba Walker. The Nets slowed down Walker in the fourth quarter using a form of box-and-one that might have caught the Hornets off guard. Charlotte will be better prepared this time around. This back-and-back series has a playoff and zig-and-zag feel to it. So I want the Hornets going for me here.
12-27-18	Canucks v. Oilers UNDER 6		4-2	Push	0	10 h 45 m	Show
Look for some rust with both teams coming off Christmas break. The Under is 16-6-3 the past 25 times the Canucks have played after being idle for three or more days. The Canucks have been strong defensively lately. If you discount the five goals they gave to the Lightning, the Canucks have held their previous four foes to a combined five goals. Edmonton is overrated offensively because it has Connor McDavid. The Oilers rank 25th in goals. They went into break averaging two goals per game during their last three games. There is an Under bias to this series. Only twice has the Over won the past 10 times these teams have met.
12-27-18	Duke +3.5 v. Temple	Top	56-27	Win	100	23 h 39 m	Show
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.
12-26-18	Nuggets v. Spurs -3		103-111	Win	100	22 h 56 m	Show
The Nuggets have been a major surprise opening the season with 21 wins in their first 31 games. A regression is coming, though, for Denver. That was evident in its last game, a 132-111 blowout loss to the Clippers on the road this past Saturday. That was Denver's worst loss of the season. Denver is down three starters with Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton all out. Big man Millsap is an underrated loss. The Clippers dominated the paint against the Nuggets scoring 80 points down low while shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field. The Clippers also outrebounded the Nuggets by 21 boards. The Spurs are coming on after a slow start. They are 7-2 in their last nine games with five of those victories coming by 25 or more points. LaMarcus Aldridge can have a big game with Millsap out. San Antonio has covered 73 percent of its past 30 home games.
12-26-18	Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5	Top	34-10	Loss	-100	29 h 14 m	Show
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles. If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble. The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained. The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.
12-25-18	Indiana State +12 v. TCU		69-83	Loss	-108	20 h 54 m	Show
I like taking double-digits with a Missouri Valley Conference team especially in a rare nonconference revenge spot. Indiana State finds itself a big 'dog to TCU in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. The Sycamores rebounded from a 90-70 road loss to TCU on Dec. 16 to beat Colorado and UNLV in the tournament to reach the finals. The Sycamores were hoping to draw the Hornets Frogs - and they have. Indiana State played in the early Sunday semifinal game. So the Sycamores have a little added rest considering the Horned Frogs had to play in the late semifinal game against Bucknell Sunday. The Sycamores are the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. They've had one poor shooting game from beyond the arc - and that came against TCU. Indiana State was just 3-for-16 in 3-pointers against the Horned Frogs. The Sycamores are going to be highly motivated and they should shoot much better being ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal accuracy.
12-25-18	76ers v. Celtics -4	Top	114-121	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
12-24-18	Broncos v. Raiders +3	Top	14-27	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
If there is one game the Raiders should be up for it is this one - a Monday night home game in what could be their final game ever in Oakland. The Broncos are a dead team done in the past two weeks by losses to the 49ers and Browns. Vance Joseph is not expected to return as coach. One of Joseph's failing is Denver's poor road record during his two seasons - 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS - including a seven-point road loss to the Raiders last season. Denver failed to cover when it hosted the Raiders in Week 2, winning 20-19 as 5 1/2-point favorites. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes in that game for 288 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos' secondary is down a key member with cornerback Chris Harris out. Carr rates a strong edge over journeyman Case Keenum.
12-23-18	Chiefs -120 v. Seahawks		31-38	Loss	-120	20 h 32 m	Show
There's a class difference here. The Chiefs have the best QB in football. Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdown throws with 45 and in yards passing. The Seahawks defense is down from previous years. It's decent, but far from dominating. Seattle no longer has the home mystique it used to possess. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Seahawks offense is one-dimensional. The Chiefs' defense is improved with the return of star safety and defensive leader Eric Berry. He had six tackles last week in his first action since the 2017 season opener. The Chiefs have covered 71 percent of their last 29 road games. They also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. The extra rest is huge this late in the season.
12-23-18	Hornets v. Celtics -7		103-119	Win	100	15 h 53 m	Show
This is a circle-the-wagons home game for Boston following three losses in a row. The Celtics held a long meeting following their Friday night home loss to the Bucks. I see the Celtics rebounding in a big way against the Hornets, who are not a good road team. The Celtics have covered 74 percent of their last 31 home games. Charlotte is 4-8 on the road. The Hornets have suffered road losses to the Hawks and Cavaliers. This marks their first away game since Dec. 9. The Celtics swept the Hornets at home during each of the last two seasons going 3-0-1 ATS in those games.
12-23-18	Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5		28-31	Win	100	16 h 48 m	Show
The Steelers rank in the top-five in points scored and yards gained. They have an elite offense. The Saints also have an elite offense. However, this total is lower than it should be because the Saints are averaging just 16.6 points during their last three games. Those three games all were on the road, though. Drew Brees has a strong history inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints are averaging 41.7 points during their past four home games. The Steelers have surrendered 24 points in each of their last two road games. Those were against the Raiders and Broncos, who have far inferior offenses to the Steelers. The Saints are 19-9-1 to the Over in their last 29 home games.
12-23-18	Bucs v. Cowboys -7	Top	20-27	Push	0	87 h 29 m	Show
Tampa Bay's defense has shown improvement, but not enough to overcome the Cowboys' ground attack and poor situational spot the Bucs find themselves in. The Buccaneers' defense was on the field for 74 plays comprising 37 minutes against the highly physical Ravens on the road last Sunday. This is their second road game in a row and 11th straight week of playing. I can envision the gassed Buccaneers losing the battle of the trenches to the Cowboys offensive line and superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in run defense. Jameis Winston doesn't often play well on the road. The Buccaneers are averaging only 16.6 points a game in their last three games. Their offense has declined as their defense has improved. The Cowboys have a top-five defense, which is made even better with the return of Sean Lee. The Cowboys are going to be highly motivated following a 23-0 shutout loss to the Colts on the road last Sunday. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season.
12-23-18	Vikings v. Lions UNDER 42.5		27-9	Win	100	72 h 53 m	Show
The teams met in Week 9 and the Vikings won 24-9 sacking Matthew Starfford 10 times. Things are even worse now for the Lions. Stafford isn't healthy. His offensive line is banged-up. His top running back, Kerryon Johnson, is out and his receiving corps is reduced to just one good player, Kenny Golladay. Detroit hasn't scored more than 22 points during its last eight games. The Lions are averaging 16.3 points in their last seven games. That figure would rank 29th if computed for the entire season. Stafford has just three touchdown throws in his last five games. He figures to be under constant pressure again so expect a lot of inside running by LeGarrette Blount, which is perfect for an Under. The Vikings have committed to the run under their new offensive coordinator. So expect a lot of running plays, too, from the Vikings. All of this is going to keep the clock moving. This has been an Under series recently with four of the past five going below the total.
12-23-18	Bengals +10.5 v. Browns		18-26	Win	100	12 h 29 m	Show
The Browns are in uncharted waters laying a number this big especially versus a division rival that has just as many wins as they do. I understand why Cleveland is such a large favorite. They are still alive for the playoffs and the Bengals have lost all of their best skill position players except workhorse running back Joe Mixon. All the pressure is on the Browns. They are a young team that has not been in this type of must-win spot before let alone cover a double-digit spread. The Browns are going to take the Bengals' best shot that's for sure. Cincinnati hasn't been swept by the Browns since 2002. The Browns defeated the Bengals, 35-20, on Nov. 25. The game was even more lopsided than the final 15-point margin with Cleveland jumping off to a 28-0 lead and coasting from there. Not knowing how to properly win and being coached by cheap-shot motivator Gregg Williams, the Browns rubbed that victory into the Bengals' faces trash talking during and after the game. The Bengals haven't forgotten about the humiliation, nor Damarious Randall's classless stunt of handing Hue Jackson the football after he interceped an Andy Dalton pass. The Bengals are down their two best wide receivers and top tight end. Mixon, though, has stepped up to become the star running back the Bengals envisioned when they drafted him. He is leading the AFC in rushing. Jeff Driskel isn't as good as Andy Dalton, but he does provide a running threat that Dalton didn't. The Bengals also have played better defense the past couple of weeks. Cincinnati has covered 11 of its past 15 games versus AFC opponents.
12-22-18	Louisiana Tech v. Hawaii UNDER 61.5	Top	31-14	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
It's easy to think that there are a lot of points going to be scored in this bowl matchup pitting Louisiana Tech against Hawaii. Louisiana Tech has averaged 45.2 points during its past four bowl games while Hawaii averages 32.1 points a game this season. But the total is set too high based on reputation rather than reality. Louisiana Tech isn't nearly the offensive machine of previous seasons. The Bulldogs rank 101st in scoring at 24.2 points per game. Their offensive decline is made up for by their defensive improvement. The Bulldogs held opponents to 23.8 points a game. The result has been a 7-3-1 mark to the Under for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have the pass rush, led by star defensive end Jaylon Ferguson, to bother Cole McDonald. The average combined total in Louisiana Tech's games versus FBS foes came out to fewer than 46 points per game. Hawaii's defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs. But the Rainbow Warriors aren't pitted against a good quarterback. Louisiana Tech QB J'Mar Smith had just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last eight games while completing less than 57 percent of his throws.
12-22-18	Lightning v. Oilers +131		6-3	Loss	-100	21 h 3 m	Show
Edmonton was riding a six-game home winning streak entering its current homestand. But the Oilers were stunned, 4-1, by the Blues in the first game of the homestand. That was back on Tuesday. The Oilers have had four days to contemplate that embarrassing loss. Look for the rested Oilers to unleash their frustration on Tampa Bay, a team they have beaten six of the past seven times hosting them. The Lightning are playing in their fourth road game in six days.
12-22-18	Drake v. New Mexico State UNDER 143.5		66-63	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Note this game is being played at a neutral site - the Orleans Arena is Las Vegas. Neutral sites often are plus for the Under since neither team is familar with the gym and basket. New Mexico State and Drake both are huge Under teams when playing at neutral sites. The Aggies have gone Under in 69 percent of their last 43 neutral site games. The Under has cashed 73 percent of the time in Drake's past 40 neutral site matchups. New Mexico State ranks 66th defensively. The Aggies held Kansas to 63 points. That was 18 points below the Jayhawks' scoring average. Drake is from the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have held three of their last four opponents to 66 or fewer points. New Mexico State is not a good free throw shooting team.
12-22-18	Nuggets v. Clippers -110		111-132	Win	100	14 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers are back to winning with the return of key sixth man Lou Williams. Williams helped the Clippers beat the Mavericks, 125-121, at home on Thursday to halt a four-game losing streak. Williams had missed the previous four games - all of which were losses - because of a hamstring injury. The buy sign is on for me here against the Nuggets. Denver is crippled and rusty. The Nuggets have lost their last two road games, falling to the Hawks and Hornets. Denver had to go into overtime to beat the Magic in the road game before those two. All three of those teams are worse than the Clippers. Denver last was in action on Tuesday. This is too long of a layoff between games. The Nuggets are without three opening-night starters, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton. Saturday Free Play Heat plus 3 hosting Bucks Bad matchup, bad timing. Look for those factors to do in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a huge road victory against the Celtics Friday night. The Bucks hardly had time to celebrate before flying into South Florida to take on the Heat. Not only is Milwaukee playing without rest, but it's the Bucks' third game in four nights and fourth game in six days all at different venues. Miami is a tough opponent for the Bucks. Not only are the Heat playing their best ball with three straight victories - holding the Grizzlies, Pelicans and Rockets all below 100 points in those wins - but they have the defense, offensive rebounding and slowdown style to frustrate the high-scoring Bucks. Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 games, its best stretch. So it's not a fluke the Heat have defeated Milwaukee five times in a row. The Heat held the Bucks to just 88.3 points in sweeping the three-game series last season. The Bucks are flash and offense with today's new kind of superstar in multi-talented Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat are old-school slowing tempo with a powerful commitment to defense. This clash in styles has worked in Miami's favor. The oddsmaker has no choice but to open the Bucks a road favorite. Milwauklee is 2-5-1 ATS in that role the past eight times.
12-21-18	Blackhawks v. Avalanche -1.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	13 h 0 m	Show
This is a tremendous kill spot for the Avalanche and I have no hesitation backing this view with a puck line play in order to greatly reduce the juice. Colorado is by far the superior team. The Avalanche are rested and draw the Blackhawks in a super letdown spot and with no rest carrying a huge fatigue rating. Chicago defeated the Predators, 2-1, at home Tuesday and then upset the Stars, 5-2, on Thursday in Dallas. This marks their third game in four days - all at different venues - and fourth game in six days. Making this worse for the Blackhawks is playing in Denver, which is high altitude. The Avalanche are 10-6 in their last 16 games. They are the No. 5 scoring team in the NHL with the league's third-best power play. The Blackhawks are in the bottom two both in allowing goals and in killing off power plays. The Blackhawks are without their top goalie, Corey Crawford. They either will have journeyman Cam Ward in net, or rookie Collin Delia.
12-21-18	Wolves v. Spurs -4		98-124	Win	100	12 h 37 m	Show
The Spurs are playing better going 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven games. The Spurs are a strong home team - 21-8 ATS in their past 29 home contests. Minnesota is 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS on the road. Minnesota is 1-5 in its last six games. The Timberwolves are below average defensively and rank 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The Spurs are No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage and in free throw percentage. The Spurs won't lack motivation as this is a revenge spot for them having suffered one of their worst defeats in the Gregg Popovich era, losing 128-89 in Minnesota on Nov. 28.
12-20-18	Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -4		66-67	Loss	-109	18 h 44 m	Show
Long Beach is better than its 3-9 record may indicate. The 49ers are playing just their fourth home game. They are 2-1 at home, but 0-7 in true road games. Their road schedule has been tough, though, with losses to UCLA, USC, Mississippi State, Arizona State and Fresno State. The 49ers' schedule has been much more difficult than Pepperdine's. The Waves are 1-4 in their last five games, struggling on both offense and defense. Pepperdine has failed to reach the 70-point mark in their last three games. The Waves have yet to win on the road. They are are 5-15-1 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.
12-20-18	Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida	Top	38-20	Win	100	68 h 2 m	Show
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits. The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games.
12-20-18	Wild v. Penguins -115		1-2	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
The price is lower than it should be based in large part on the Penguins scoring a huge 2-1 road win against the Capitals on Wednesday in a very physical, tight game, while Minnesota was idle. But I choose to lay this low price with the Penguins in the belief they are not going to just give back that hard-earned victory against the defending Stanley Cup champions by losing at home to the Wild, who are not in good form. Minnesota has scored one goal during its past two games, home losses to the Flames and Sharks. The Wild are 1-4 during their past five away matchups. All of those losses were by multiple goals. The lone road win during this span occurred versus the Canucks. Pittsburgh has won four of its past five times hosting the Wild, too.
12-20-18	James Madison v. Fordham UNDER 130.5		48-75	Win	100	4 h 11 m	Show
Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand.
12-19-18	Warriors -2.5 v. Jazz		103-108	Loss	-109	11 h 44 m	Show
I understand that Utah has been dealt a bad early season hand by the NBA schedulemakers. The Jazz have endured a brutal, road-heavy schedule. But they are 1-4 in their last five games, lack consistency, rank 26th in 3-point shooting and are not a top-three defense anymore. So I can't see them defeating a healthy Warriors team that is coming on since Stephen Curry returned to the lineup. Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson all are playing well. Golden State is 6-2 in its last eight games. When focused, the Warriors can destroy any opponent. Golden State doesn't play again until Saturday. So that focus, concentration and effort should all be there.
12-19-18	Auburn v. NC State OVER 157	Top	71-78	Loss	-110	9 h 17 m	Show
NC State ranks ninth in the nation in points per game at 88.9. Auburn is 19th averaging 84.8. Neither is going to back down. The pace is going to be fast and up-tempo. That's the way Wolfpack like it and Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has a history of obliging up-tempo teams, especially when he spots weakness. The Wolfpack are not strong in transition defense. Only twice in 10 games has NC State failed to reach 80 points. The Tigers have gone Over in each of their last two games and three of their last four.
12-18-18	Lakers -129 v. Nets	Top	110-115	Loss	-129	19 h 59 m	Show
The Nets are playing their best ball winning their last five games. But I see that streak ending here. There is zero chance now of the Lakers taking Brooklyn lightly especially after losing in embarrassing fashion to the Wizards, 128-110, this past Sunday. LeBron James was held to a season-low 13 points in that defeat. Look for the Lakers to be much more focused. They are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The prideful James should rebound with a strong game. The Nets are a bottom-10 defensive team. LA has by far the better talent and is 12-3-3 ATS during its past 18 visits to Brooklyn.
12-18-18	Ducks v. Rangers -120		1-3	Win	100	10 h 32 m	Show
Anaheim is hot, but I want the Rangers going for me in this spot. The Rangers are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost the first two games of their three-game homestand that ends here. Both of those losses occurred in overtime. New York last played on Sunday afternoon, while the Ducks upset the Penguins, 4-2, Monday night. The Rangers won't play again until Sunday. Expect a maximum effort from them. Both teams are slated to go with backup goalies. The Ducks, however, are expected to use journeyman Chad Johnson, whose career appears close to finished. He was cut loose by the Blues a week ago. The Rangers have dominated the Ducks winning seven of the past nine times. New York also is 4-0 the past four times hosting the Ducks.
12-17-18	Saints v. Panthers +7	Top	12-9	Win	100	19 h 22 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season to say the least for the Panthers. That's what happens when you lose a lot of close games like Carolina has. Only twice all season have the 6-7 Panthers lost by more than a touchdown. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl. They draw the Saints playing in their third consecutive road game. New Orleans has averaged just 262 total yards of offense in its last three games, which would rank 31st in the league if computed for the entire season. Carolina's troubles have stemmed mainly when they are on the road. The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 home games, including going 5-1 at home this season.
12-17-18	Bruins +125 v. Canadiens		4-0	Win	125	10 h 49 m	Show
The teams just met in Montreal on Nov. 24 and the Bruins won, 3-2. It was the seventh time in the last eight meetings the Bruins have defeated the Canadiens. It also was the fourth straight time the Bruins won in Montreal. I like the Bruins to do it again. The Canadiens have won the first two games of their homestand. The Bruins are coming off a 4-2 home loss to the Sabres. I believe the Bruins will respond well off that loss even though they will be playing without rest and on the ice for the third time in four days. Boston has won each of the past four times it has played without rest and is 5-1 the past six times when playing in a 3-in-4 spot. Montreal is 8-20 following a victory.
12-16-18	Eagles v. Rams -9	Top	30-23	Loss	-103	129 h 1 m	Show
Physically and mentally down, the Eagles aren't ready for the Rams. LA is in a kill mood after its worst offensive performance of the season this past Sunday night. That was in cold conditions on the road against a very strong Bears defense. The Rams have multiple weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' messy cornerback situation, which has numerous injuries and is composed of second and third-stringers. Jared Goff is back in his element playing in California. Unlike last season when the Eagles outscored the Rams, 43-35, Philadelphia doesn't have the offensive capability to hang anymore with LA. The Eagles have no ground game to fall back on and Golden Tate has been a major disappointment since joining the Eagles from the Lions failing to elevate Philly's passing attack. The Eagles defense was on the field for 93 plays in their overtime loss against the Cowboys last week. They are worn down. They couldn't ask for a more dangerous offense to face on the road than the Rams. Mentally, the Eagles aren't there either with their playoff hopes realistically dashed following the loss to Dallas.
12-16-18	Kings v. Mavs -5		120-113	Loss	-103	17 h 38 m	Show
Quitely, below the radar, Dallas has rattled off 11 straight home victories, going 10-1 ATS in these games. The Mavericks have beaten teams much better than the Kings during this home win streak such as the Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Rockets and Clippers. It should be an emotional game, too, for the Mavericks as Dirk Nowitzki is set to make his season debut. The Kings are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. However, Sacramento is off a hard-played 130-125 home loss to the Warriors from Friday night. The Kings nearly upset the Warriors in their first meeting against them this season losing, 117-116, on the road. The Kings were blown out by the Jazz, 133-112, in their next game following that loss to the Warriors. Dallas lost in its last game this past Thursday, falling to lowly Phoenix on the road, 99-89, as six-point favorites. The Mavericks should come back strong after that humiliation. They are 6-0 ATS when having two or more days rest between games.
12-16-18	Sharks v. Blackhawks OVER 6		7-3	Win	100	9 h 47 m	Show
Only twice has the Under won in the Blackhawks' last 13 games. Chicago has scored 3 or more goals in four of its last five games. However, the Blackhawks have the second-worst defense in the league. They have allowed 4 or more goals in 10 of their last 13 games. They gave up 3 goals in the other three games during this span. The Sharks have scored 3 or more goals in five of their last six games. The Over has cashed 15 of the past 20 times the Sharks have played on two days rest. The oddsmaker opened this total short at 6 instead of 6 1/2.
12-16-18	Cowboys v. Colts -140		0-23	Win	100	122 h 31 m	Show
Dallas is in a major flat spot after winnings its division showdown game against the Eagles. That victory all but clinched the NFC East for the Cowboys. They are pretty much locked into their playoff seeding at 8-5 since the two other division leaders, the Saints and Rams, are each at 11-2. The Colts also won a division showdown game this past Sunday beating the Texans. But the Colts need to keep winning in order to make the playoffs being 7-6. Andrew Luck has regained his status as an elite quarterback. He's also getting tremendous pass protection for the first time in his career. Indy's defense is much improved. The combination of Luck, being home and drawing the Cowboys in a letdown spot are enough factors to lay the short number with the Colts.
12-16-18	Dolphins v. Vikings -7	Top	17-41	Win	100	121 h 40 m	Show
The Dolphins are not nearly as good as their 7-6 record. They don't have an elite player on their roster. Their best player might be corernback Xavien Howard and he's hurt missing last week's game. The Vikings have a very strong home field. They have covered 69 percent of their home games under Mike Zimmer. The Dolphins are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. They have lost four away games this season by double-digits. Minnesota's defense is far superior. The Vikings also don't have to deal with a high octane offense. The Dolphins' lone outside threat is Kenyan Drake and he is under utilized. Ryan Tannehill is a limited quarterback and playing on a sore ankle. Look for the fired-up Vikings to expose the Dolphins for the fraud team that they are.
12-16-18	Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5		12-20	Win	100	37 h 24 m	Show
Baltimore has the best defense in the NFL giving up the fewest points per game at 18.5 and the second-fewest yards per game. The Ravens also rank No. 3 in pass defense. The Buccaneers are less free-wheeling and more short-to-medium pass oriented with Jameis Winston at quarterback instead of wild man Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't see the Buccaneers putting up many points against the Ravens especially on the road and down big-play receiver/returner DeSean Jackson. Tampa Bay managed just 81 yards offense in the second half against the Saints last week. There is a wind and rain factor, too, with the forecast calling for light showers and 8-10 mph wind. The key in making this under work is being able to rely on the Buccaneers' defense. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in points allowed at 29.5 per game. That number is skewed, though, from how bad the Bucs defense was earlier in the season. Tampa Bay has gotten healthier defensively and played much better. If you discount a 38-point performance from the Giants, the Bucs have surrendered only 17.5 points in their last four games. That figure would rank No. 1. The Under is going to be helped by the Ravens running the ball so much since they switched to Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Jackson can't pass very well. But he's an excellent runner. The Ravens are like a college option team running the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Ravens have a bunch of inside runners, though, no breakaway, dangerous outside running threats. This sets up long sustained ground-oriened drives that eat clock and keep the ball away from Tampa Bay's more explosiving passing attack. It's a plus for the Under.
12-16-18	Titans +2.5 v. Giants		17-0	Win	100	37 h 13 m	Show
The Titans are on extra rest and are the superior team. The oddsmaker set a bad line opening the Giants as a favorite. I'm late for the party, but at least I have arrived as the Titans should win this game. It's certainly not too much to ask of them. The Giants caught the oddsmaker's attention by winning four of their last five games. However, three of those wins were against the 49ers, Buccaneers and Redskins starting Mark Sanchez. Their only legitimate win came against the Bears in a letdown spot for Chicago - and they nearly blew that. The Titans give up the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. They are going to load the box keying on Saquan Barkley, who is a one-man band with Odell Beckham Jr. out another week. Eli Manning doesn't have the arm nor talent anymore to back the Titans off the line. Tennessee should have no problem running on the Giants with Derrick Henry. The Giants no longer have run-stuffing defensive tackle Damon Harrison and they lost strong safety Landon Collins to a season-ending injury. New York has yielded at least 115 yards on the ground in five of its past six games. Despite facing a number of backup quarterbacks - Sanchez, Josh Johnson, Chase Daniel and Nick Mullens - the Giants are giving up an average of nearly 27 points per game during their last 10 games. The point spread won't matter. Tennessee wins this game straight-up.
12-15-18	Flyers +115 v. Canucks		1-5	Loss	-100	12 h 37 m	Show
The Flyers are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three straight games - all on the road. Philadelphia concludes its five-game road swing here. The Flyers draw the Canucks returning home after a week on the road. So it's not a great spot for Vancouver. Vancovuer is just 1-6 in its last seven homes. The Flyers have beaten the Canucks in four of the past five meetings. They also are 9-3 in their last 12 visits to Vancouver.
12-15-18	Middle Tennessee State v. Appalachian State OVER 47.5		13-45	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
I find this total low given the quality of the offenses and this game being played on a fast track inside the Louisiana Superdome. Yes, Appalachian State has a strong defense. But the Mountaineers also have a strong, balanced offense that averages 36.7 points a game. Their quarterback, Zac Thomas, is a dual threat so Middle Tennessee State has to respect both the pass and run. The Blue Raiders' defense has shown signs of slippage surrendering 27 or more points in three of their last four games. I've always liked Blue Raiders QB Brent Stockstill. He had another big season throwing for 3,214 yards and 28 touchdowns. Middle Tennessee State averaged nearly 30 points a game and close to 400 yards per contest. The Blue Raiders also have a balanced attack.
12-15-18	Browns +3 v. Broncos		17-16	Win	100	105 h 44 m	Show
Toss out Hue Jackson and football becomes fun again for the Browns. No, the Browns are not a playoff team. But they have emerging young talent and a decent defense. All they needed to do was get rid of Jackson, one of the most incompetent head coaches in NFL history. Interim coach Gregg Williams is 3-2 since replacing Jackson. That matches Jackson's win total from the past two-plus seasons. Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb have thrived since Jackson was fired. Chubb has rushed for 100 yards in every game since Jackson's departure. Jackson was hardly using the guy. Mayfield is attacking downfield. He's thrown 11 touchdowns during the past five games. Cleveland has dropped just two of its six road games by more than a field goal. There is a good chance star rookie cornerback Denzel Ward will be able to play for the Browns here after missing last week. Denver isn't making the playoffs either. A loss to the 49ers this past Sunday took care of that. Unlike the Browns, morale is down now with the Broncos. The Broncos' secondary is hurting without cornerback Chris Harris. They just lost another cornerback, Isaac Yiadom, forcing journeyman Tramaine Brock into their starting lineup. The Broncos' passing game - not good to begin with - has taken a major nosedive with the season-ending Achilles injury to Emmanuel Sanders, their best wide receiver by far. Right now the Browns are the superior team. Taking points with them is a bonus.
12-15-18	Lakers -127 v. Hornets		128-100	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
The Lakers are off a bad loss to the Rockets. That was on Thursday. The Hornets suffered a 126-124 home loss to the lowly Knicks Friday night. Charlotte's five starters are logged more than 36 minutes. The Hornets have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 games versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets live-and-die with Kemba Walker and he logged more than 40 minutes last night. LeBron James gets up for this opponent, too. So expect an easy Lakers victory. The Lakers have been playing well until that Rockets loss winning six of their past seven leading into that game.
12-15-18	Arizona State v. Fresno State -4	Top	20-31	Win	100	68 h 41 m	Show
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class. Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377. Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.
12-15-18	Penn State v. NC State UNDER 147		78-89	Loss	-115	5 h 40 m	Show
Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent. Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in.
12-14-18	Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6.5		3-4	Loss	-119	10 h 48 m	Show
The teams just met two weeks ago and there were four goals scored in regulation with the Blues winning, 3-2, in overtime. I don't see this matchup reaching six goals either. The Avalanche stressed defense in practice after giving up 13 goals in their last two games. They've had two full days to work on things. Note, too, the 13 goals they gave up occurred against the Lightning and Oilers, both of whom have better offenses than the Blues. St. Louis has failed in 10 of its last 11 power play attempts spanning five games. However, the Blues have killed 18 penalties in a row. Their penalty kill rate of 84.8 precent ranks fourth in the NHL. The Under is on a 90 percent run when Colorado plays opponents from the Central Division with the Under cashing nine of the past 10 times in those situations.
12-14-18	Hawks +13 v. Celtics	Top	108-129	Loss	-105	21 h 31 m	Show
The Celtics have won seven in a row, including getting past the Wizards on the road Wednesday despite missing Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Jaylon Brown. Now the Celtics draw the lowly Hawks at home with a road game looming against the Pistons on Saturday. Not only is the backdoor open for the Hawks, but so is the possibility they can hang in and make this a game. Horford remains out. Hayward and Brown are questionable. Both are ill. The Celtics have no need to rush either back given their depth and not taking the Hawks as a serious threat. Atlanta has covered its last two games. The Hawks upset the Nuggets at home and lost by seven points as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Mavericks. The Hawks are averaging 112.7 points in their last seven games if you toss out a 94-point performance they had against the Hornets. The 112.7-point average would rank 10th best if computed during the entire season. The Celtics have not been good in this type of role failing to cover 12 of the past 15 times when laying more than eight points.
12-13-18	Clippers v. Spurs -3		87-125	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
I'm going to poke my toe in the water and test out if the buy sign is on for the Spurs. Indications are it is, at least for this matchup. San Antonio has won and covered its past three games, all at home. The Spurs draw the Clippers playing for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. The Clippers have cooled off losing four of their last six games. They just got waxed, 123-99, at home by the Raptors on Tuesday. Toronto didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game either. The Clippers didn't have their star sixth man, Lou Williams, in that game due to a hamstring injury. It's an added plus if Williams can't play tonight.
12-13-18	Hurricanes v. Canadiens -108	Top	4-6	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
Montreal is much improved this season. However, the Canadiens are coming off their worst loss of the season. They were buried 7-1 on the road by the Wild this past Tuesday. That was the finale of a three-game road trip. Montreal had defeated the Senators and Blackhawks during the first two legs of the trip.The Canadiens are really pointing to this matchup following that humiliating defeat to Minnesota. They also have revenge for a 2-1 home loss suffered to Carolina on Nov. 27. The Canadiens also had backup goalie Antti Niemi in net during that loss to the Wild. Carey Price will be back in goal for Montreal today. Price is having a good comeback season. The Canadiens are far from an elite team. But neither are the Hurricanes, who rank last in scoring. The Hurricanes have scored more than two goals only once in their last seven games. They have scored one goal or fewer in five of their last seven games. Carolina also is banged-up. The spot and opponent set up for Montreal to gain back its self-respect.
12-12-18	Wolves -125 v. Kings	Top	130-141	Loss	-125	22 h 27 m	Show
The Timberwolves are playing better defense and have improved team chemistry. The result has been a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine games. Minnesota, though, has dropped the first two games of its current four-game road swing. Those losses occurred to the Warriors and Trail Blazers. Now the Timberwolves step down in class visting the Kings. Sacramento is much improved from last season. But the Timberwolves have more experience and better talent, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns shaking off his early season poor performances. The spot is bad for the Kings. It is their first game back from a four-game road swing that concluded Monday night in Chicago. Sacramento buried the Bulls in that game, while winning three of the four away games during the trip. The Kings are fat and happy. Their focus could be off, too, since they last played at home 11 days ago. Sacramento is 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a road trip of seven or more days. Minnesota also has revenge for a 121-110 road loss to the Kings on Nov. 9 when it still had Jimmy Butler. Since that defeat, the Timberwolves have gone 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS on the road.
12-12-18	San Diego v. Oregon UNDER 143		55-65	Win	100	13 h 38 m	Show
San Diego is strong defensively. No surprise there. The Toreros rank 52nd in fewest points allow and have the 24th-best defense against 3-pointers. Their last three games have all gone Under. The Toreros understand their calling card is defense. So they don't look to run or push pace. Excellent style for an Under. San Diego should be even more methodical in its shot selection knowing Oregon ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. The question is will Oregon cooperate by not playing up-tempo? Judging by the Ducks' last two games and the switches they made they will. Oregon's pace was more deliberate in its last game, an 84-61 home win against Nebraska-Omaha that stayed under the total. Freshman Louis King made his season debut in that game after being out all season with a knee injury. He's 6-foot-9 and teamed well with 7-2 center Bol Bol to provide a strong rebounding and shot-blocking presence. The Ducks lost 65-61 on the road to Houston in their previous game before Nebraska-Omaha. That game, too, went well Under the total.
12-12-18	Penguins v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5	Top	3-6	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
The Blackhawks are the worst defensive team in the NHL. They have have given up four or more goals in nine of their last 11 games. A coaching change has failed to get their defense going. The Over has cashed in seven of Chicago's past nine games. The Penguins rank eighth in the league in scoring. They are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. Pittsburgh, however, is 20th defensively. There is a good chance Matt Murray returns to be Pittsburgh's goalie in this game. He has missed the past 11 games with a lower-body injury. Murray has not had a good season and figures to be rusty.
12-12-18	Knicks -125 v. Cavs		106-113	Loss	-125	19 h 24 m	Show
The Knicks are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. That wouldn't mean anything if the Knicks weren't superior to the Cavaliers, but they are especially with the Cavaliers down their best big man, Tristan Thompson. He was having his best season averaging 12 points and 11.6 rebounds per game, but suffered a foot injury in Cleveland's last game and will be sidelined two-to-four weeks. Prior to their last losing streak, the Knicks had defeated the Celtics, Pelicans, Grizzlies and Bucks in a span of 11 days starting from Nov. 21. The Cavaliers can't beat all of those teams. The Knicks should be well rested and prepared. They haven't played since Sunday. The Cavaliers, though, are playing for the fourth time in six days. The Knicks also have played the Cavaliers tough in Cleveland even when the Cavs had LeBron James covering six of the past eight times there.
12-11-18	Colorado -5 v. New Mexico		78-75	Loss	-105	12 h 2 m	Show
I have great respect for New Mexico when the Lobos are playing at home like they are here. The Pit is a very difficult venue for road teams. Colorado has been weak on the road the past couple of seasons going 6-20 in true road games. Most of those losses, though, came to Pac-12 schools. The Buffaloes have a real shot to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Colorado has a balanced attack that is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.2 points. New Mexico is one of the weakest defensive teams in the nation ranking 351th in points allowed at 86.1 and is 334th in defensive shooting percentage at 48.7. According to the Pomeroy rating, Colorado ranks 60th in the country while New Mexico is 158th. The Buffaloes don't play again until Dec. 22. So they should be focused. The spread is short enough to back the Buffs.
12-11-18	Panthers v. Blues -115	Top	3-4	Win	100	19 h 16 m	Show
Florida has been enjoying home cooking for nearly 2 1/2 weeks. The Panthers' last road game was Nov. 23. That's a good thing for the Panthers since they are 1-4 in their past five away matchups. Their lone road win during this span was against Ottawa, a sub .500 team. The Panthers' four road losses during this time frame have been by a combined 13 goals. The Blues are not a strong team, but this spot sets up well for them. St. Louis should be fired up after an embarrassing 6-1 home loss to the Canucks on Sunday. The Blues don't play again until Friday. So there's no excuse for them not to give a full effort. Florida is just a .500 team so it's not like the Blues have to step up in class. Vladimir Tarasenko is one of the more dangerous scorers in the league. He's due to score for the Blues having failed to produce a goal during the last four games.