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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-15-19	Red Wings +137 v. Canucks		1-5	Loss	-100	19 h 47 m	Show
Detroit appears to be much improved. The Red Wings are off to a 3-2 start. They already have won road games against Nashville and Montreal. A key to the Red Wings' success is better depth. They have been getting good play from their fourth line. Vancouver is a bit fat and happy posting consecutive home wins against the Kings and Flyers in a shootout this past Saturday. The Canucks won't have starting goalie Jacob Markstrom, who is attending a family matter. He'll be replaced by Thatcher Demko, who has yet to make a start this season.
10-15-19	Lightning -134 v. Canadiens	Top	3-1	Win	100	16 h 47 m	Show
I want Tampa Bay going for me in a bounce back spot after the Lightning lost, 4-2, to the previously winless Senators this past Saturday. Tampa Bay is 7-1-1 in its last nine games versus Montreal. The Canadiens are off a 6-3 victory against the Stanley Cup champion Blues this past Saturday. This marks the Canadiens' fourth game in seven days. Carey Price hasn't been an elite goalie for the past couple of seasons. He's off to a slow start this year with a 3.38 GAA. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is 7-1-2 lifetime against the Canadiens with a 2.16 GAA and.929 save percentage. He should be fresh since he did not play against Ottawa.
10-14-19	Cardinals +121 v. Nationals	Top	1-8	Loss	-100	18 h 38 m	Show
I have the utmost respect for Stephen Strasburg. But I like Jack Flaherty better. I believe there is value getting Flaherty and the Cardinals - in a desperate spot down 0-2 - at an underdog price. Yes, St. Louis is on the road now. But the Cardinals have beaten the Nationals five of the past six times as a visitor. Yes, the Cardinals aren't hitting. But the Nationals aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball having scored five runs in the first two games of the series. Yes, Strasburg is a stud pitcher. But Flaherty was the best pitcher in the National League during August and September with a 0.91 ERA following All-Star break. Flaherty has stayed hot in the postseason with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. St. Louis is 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
10-14-19	Ducks v. Bruins UNDER 5.5		2-4	Loss	-135	4 h 9 m	Show
The juice is high, but the number is wrong. The oddsmaker should not be putting up higher than a 5 total on Anaheim games right now. The Ducks have been a dead nuts Under team. There has not been more than four goals scored in any of their first five games, all of which have easily gone Under. Anaheim is the perfect Under team. The Ducks are totally defensive-minded and have been receiving outstanding goaltending. They have allowed just six goals in five games. The Ducks have failed to score more than than three goals in a game. They average just 2.2 goals. Boston is the No. 2 defensive team in the league permitting only 1.6 goals a game. The Bruins have yet to fully get their offense going at this early juncture. They rank 24th in scoring at 2.4 goals a game. This is the Ducks' fourth road game in seven days. So they surely aren't going to change their deliberate, plodding style. Note this is a very early West Coast time start for the Ducks, another plus for the Under.
10-13-19	Titans v. Broncos OVER 39		0-16	Loss	-109	98 h 28 m	Show
Unless you have a pair of dominant defenses going, this is a short total in the NFL these days with the rules skewed toward offense. Denver's defense is overrated. The Broncos have yielded at least 23 points in five of their last seven games. Denver is down Bradley Chubb and ranks 22nd in run defense. The Titans should have scored far more than seven points against the Bills last week. They had a touchdown called back and missed four field goals. Tennessee mercifully has a new kicker this week. Derrick Henry should be able to run on Denver, which in turn will make Marcus Mariota far more effective off play-action. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco. But Denver's offense has shown more the past two games averaging 22 points during this span.
10-13-19	Cowboys v. Jets UNDER 45		22-24	Loss	-117	48 h 13 m	Show
The Jets rank last in yards and second-to-last in scoring. Maybe the oddsmaker believes their scoring will pick up with Sam Darnold set to go behind center for the first time since opening week after being felled by mononucleosis because this total seems high to me. Darnold is a major improvement on Luke Falk, who had no business ever starting an NFL game. But Darnold figures to be rusty and may not be 100 percent. This is just his second year in the NFL. He was inconsistent as a rookie. The Cowboys could be without their two starting offensive tackles, six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle La'el Collins. I forsee a lot of running in this game, which eats up clock. The Jets heavily rely on Le'Veon Bell, who isn't such a superstar behind a sub-par offensive line. Dallas is going to feed Ezekiel Elliott.
10-13-19	49ers v. Rams -3	Top	20-7	Loss	-120	54 h 28 m	Show
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
10-13-19	Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-23	Win	100	96 h 45 m	Show
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
10-13-19	Eagles v. Vikings -3		20-38	Win	100	95 h 23 m	Show
The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
10-12-19	Jets v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5		3-2	Loss	-120	7 h 27 m	Show
This total may be heading toward 7. The Jets are a huge offensive team with tremendous goal scorers. They have scored 4 or more goals in four of their five games. The Blackhawks have a porous defense and are playing for just the third time. They are going to need more time to get their blue line problems straighten out. The Blackhawks, though, like to play fast-paced and they can score in bunches, too. Chicago should be good for at least three goals against a below average Winnipeg defense. The Jets give up the third-most shots in the league.
10-12-19	BC -138 v. Edmonton		6-19	Loss	-138	99 h 2 m	Show
It took nearly all season, but British Columbia is hitting its stride. The Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games and have won four in a row. Mike Reilly threw a career-high five TD passes in a 55-8 win against Toronto last week. BC's offensive line is playing much better than it did when the teams met back in June and July. Edmonton won those games in part by sacking Reilly a combined 12 times. The Eskimos are really missing injured QB Trevor Harris. They are 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS in their last six games. The Lions are peaking while the Eskimos have regressed.
10-12-19	Predators v. Kings OVER 5.5		4-7	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
Nashville has played four games. Each of those contests has gone Over. It's not a fluke. All four lines are contributing for the Predators. They are getting tremendous balanced scoring. The Kings have played three games. Each of those matchups has gone Over, too. LA has scored 11 goals while giving up 17 goals. The Kings' goaltending has been terrible. The oddsmaker opened this total too low.
10-12-19	San Jose State v. Nevada -120	Top	38-41	Win	100	38 h 47 m	Show
Just like the stock market it's best to buy low and sell high. This is a case of buying low with Nevada Reno. The Wolf Pack are at low ebb following a humiliating 54-3 home loss to Hawaii in their last game. That was two weeks ago. The Wolf Pack have been idle since. Nevada is itching for redemption. The Wolf Pack are 7-2 ATS following a bye. San Jose State is a surprising 3-2. The Spartans don't bring many fans to their road games and Nevada is a tough place for visiting teams. Just ask Purdue, which had a healthy starting QB and superstar WR Rondale Moore when it fell to the Wolf Pack in Reno earlier this season. The Wolf Pack have changed starting QB's. It's time for the Malik Henry era. The heavily recruited prep superstar Henry will be making his first college start for Nevada after originally signing with Florida State. The Spartans remain vulnerable defensively ranking 107th in total defense. They have one of the worst run defenses in the nation. Nevada's record and statistics are skewed because of blowout losses to Hawaii and Oregon. The Wolf Pack should fare much better against San Jose State especially at home where they have covered eight of the last nine times when hosting the Spartans.
10-12-19	BYU -4 v. South Florida		23-27	Loss	-110	21 h 53 m	Show
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida. I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense. BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.
10-12-19	Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66		7-20	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
Bowling Green excels in one thing - going Under the total. The Falcons have gone Under in nine of their last 10 games. I'm going to ride that trend here especially considering the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind in the 16 mph range with gusts possibly getting up to 28 mph. Bowling Green ranks 128th in scoring at 14.6 points a game. Toledo isn't likely to be passing much or playing up-temp once it builds a huge lead, which is what the Rockets are projected to do. The Under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met at Bowling Green. The Under also has cashed in nine of the last 12 overall meetings between the two schools.
10-11-19	Saskatchewan v. Calgary -145		28-30	Win	100	78 h 36 m	Show
I want Calgary going for me in a bounce back spot. The Stampeders had won four in a row until losing, 21-17, at Montreal last Saturday night. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 464 yards and Calgary's defense played well. But the Stampeders were done in by five turnovers. Calgary has covered seven of the last 10 in this series. The Stampeders whipped Saskatchewan, 37-10, earlier in the season.
10-11-19	Nationals v. Cardinals -120		2-0	Loss	-120	19 h 55 m	Show
The Nationals have three outstanding starting pitchers. Anibal Sanchez isn't one of them. It's Sanchez who draws the start in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series today. He's backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. And the Nationals won't be resorting to using Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in relief when they have to dip into their bullpen. Not with those three studs drawing heavy action in the Nationals' playoff series win against the Dodgers. The underdog Nationals took out the Dodgers winning the pivotal Game 5 in extra innings this past Wednesday in LA. Washington still may be hung over with such a short turnaround opening this series in St. Louis. Washington has lost seven of its last nine games to St. Louis. I prefer Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas to Sanchez. Mikolas is a solid No. 3 type starter, while Sanchez is more bottom of the rotation. Mikolas has a 2.98 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 16-7 in Mikolas' last 23 home starts. Sanchez is 2-4 with 3.44 career ERA in eight career starts versus St. Louis.
10-11-19	Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL	Top	9-17	Loss	-110	32 h 60 m	Show
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
10-11-19	Ducks v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5		2-1	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
Until proven otherwise, I'm going to ride the Under with Anaheim. The Ducks have played four games. Each game has gone below the total. There has not been more than four goals scored in any of their games. The Ducks just took a hard-fought 2-1 road loss to the Penguins on Thursday. So they certainly won't be pushing any kind of tempo in this back-to-back situation. Instead they will continue their defensive, grind-out style. The Ducks don't have much offense so this way of playing makes sense. Anaheim's John Gibson has been the hottest goalie in the league. He's likely to rest here, but I'm fine with backup goalie Ryan Miller. He has a strong background versus Columbus with a .929 save percentage and 2.02 GAA in 13 career games versus the Blue Jackets. Columbus figures to be rusty having been idle the last four days. The Blue Jackets also will be without 27-goal scorer Josh Anderson, who has an upper-body injury.
10-10-19	Golden Knights -134 v. Coyotes		1-4	Loss	-134	19 h 6 m	Show
Las Vegas is much the better team. I want the Golden Knights going for me, too, after they suffered a disappointing 4-3 loss at home to the Bruins. Arizona is 0-2 on the season. The Coyotes ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring last season. They have scored one goal this season. The Golden Knights have never lost at Arizona going 4-0 versus the Coyotes on the road, winning those games by a combined seven goals.
10-10-19	Sharks -103 v. Blackhawks		5-4	Win	100	18 h 34 m	Show
Perhaps it's a leap of faith. But I see the Sharks going all out and getting their first victory of the season here after opening with four consecutive losses. San Jose didn't have Evander Kane for its first three games. The Sharks should get a spark and some class from bringing back 40-year-old Patrick Marleau, who played with them for 19 years serving as team captain. The Sharks are stepping down in class after playing twice against Las Vegas and once against hot Anaheim and Nashville. The Blackhawks are the only team in the NHL to have played just one game so far. That game was last Friday in the Czech Republic, a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia. The Blackhawks are going to be rusty, still could be suffering from jet lag and won't have the Sharks' sense of desperation as this is just their second game of the season and first of a seven-game homestand.
10-10-19	Ducks v. Penguins UNDER 6	Top	1-2	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
There isn't a hotter goalie right now than Anaheim's John Gibson, who has stopped 98 of 101 shots. The Ducks are 3-0 this season because they have given up just three goals in three games. The Ducks are a dead-nuts Under team right now with a sub-par offense and a strong commitment to defense. If you go back to preseason, the Ducks are a perfect 27-for-27 in killing off power plays, including 7-for-7 in the regular season. The Penguins have a cluster injury on offense with two centers and two wingers out the most prominent being Evgeni Malkin. The multiple injuries really showed in the Penguins' last game when they could manage only one goal versus Winnipeg this past Tuesday at home. Pittsburgh takes to the road for the first time this season following this game. So the Penguins should have their defensive intensity up knowing their offense is down players and this is the final matchup of a four-game homestand that has proven disappointing at 1-2.
10-09-19	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 71	Top	17-7	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
This is a huge Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have outstanding offenses, hence the high total. But series history and the Ragin' Cajuns defense should not be overlooked. Lafayette is giving up an average of 17.2 points in its last four games. The Under has cashed five of the past six times in the series, including last season when just 49 points were scored. Both teams like to run, which should eat clock, too.
10-09-19	Devils v. Flyers OVER 6		0-4	Loss	-119	7 h 46 m	Show
The Devils have played two games so far this season. There have been a combined nine goals scored in each game. It's not a fluke. The Devils are much stronger offensively than they are defensively. The Flyers also have issues on defense. They were on display in the Flyers' first game, a 4-3 victory against the Blackhawks. At this early juncture, both team's offenses are ahead of their defenses. I'll ride that here and go Over.
10-09-19	Canadiens v. Sabres -118	Top	4-5	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
The Sabres are much improved especially on offense. Sparked by newcomer Marcus Johansson and rookie Victor Olofsson, the Sabres have scored 13 goals in opening the season 2-1. The spot is ripe, too, for the Sabres. They catch the Canadiens playing in their third consecutive road game and off a hugely-satisfying 6-5 victory over their long-time rival the Maple Leafs. Montreal begins a four-game homestand Thursday. So focus could be an issue for the Canadiens. Montreal also is going with backup goalie Keith Kinkaid.
10-09-19	Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8	Top	13-1	Loss	-104	16 h 30 m	Show
These same two starting pitchers, Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz, just went against each other this past Friday. Final score was Braves 3, Cardinals 0. Both pitched well especially Foltynewicz, who gave up just three hits with no walks and had seven strikeouts in seven innings. Flaherty allowed three runs in seven innings. He gave up eight hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. This wasn't a fluke. Flaherty and Foltynewicz have been hot for quite a while. Flaherty was the NL Pitcher of the Month for August AND September. He went 7-2 with 0.91 ERA after the All-Star break. The Under is 13-3-2 (81 percent) in his past 18 starts. Foltynewicz went 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA during his last 10 starts. The loser of this game is eliminated. So each manager won't hesitate to use his best pitchers in relief if necessary. Weather-wise, there is a slight breeze blowing in.
10-08-19	Astros v. Rays OVER 7.5	Top	1-4	Loss	-100	16 h 33 m	Show
We've got two major factors going in getting this total to go Over. The first is an Astros offense that had the highest batting average in the majors and was third in runs and homers. They get to face a bunch of Tampa Bay relievers as Rays manager Kevin Cash is using this pivotal Game 4 as a bullpen day. First up for the Rays is Diego Castillo. He had a 6.14 ERA in six regular season starts. Castillo has never started a playoff game. The second factor is the Rays coming off a 10-run game against Zach Greinke and now drawing Justin Verlander on three days rest. The 36-year-old Verlander hasn't pitched on this short of rest all year. Tampa Bay has scored at least four runs in 19 of its last 25 games.
10-08-19	Oilers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5		5-2	Loss	-110	15 h 17 m	Show
I envision a tight, defensive battle here. The Oilers have two great scorers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But that's about the extent of their offense. New Edmonton coach Dave Tippett is stressing defense. The Islanders are all about defense. They've given up three goals in two games, holding the powerful Capitals to two goals and the offensive-minded Jets to just one goal. Thomas Greiss is a hot goalie.
10-07-19	Browns +4 v. 49ers	Top	3-31	Loss	-115	118 h 47 m	Show
Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
10-07-19	Browns v. 49ers OVER 47	Top	3-31	Loss	-109	21 h 13 m	Show
The Browns' offense has shown signs of getting in gear coming off a 40-point performance against the Ravens last week. Baker Mayfield has two of the best at their respective positions in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and running back Nick Chubb. It's a plus for the Browns and Over that Jarvis Landry should be able to play. The 49ers' defense is improved, but still striving to turn the corner. San Francisco has been fortunate so far to draw the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay's first game under new coach Bruce Arians, a weak Bengals offense and a Steelers offense that had Mason Rudolph behind center instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Cleveland's defense could be missing its starting cornerbacks as both Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward are injured. It's alarming that the Browns defense surrendered 43 points to Tennessee. The Titans have scored a combined 55 points in their four other games. San Francisco's offense is getting dangerous with Jimmy Garoppolo getting the rust off behind offensive guru Kyle Shanahan's well-designed plays. The 49ers have three solid running backs, underrated wide receivers and a top-two tight end in George Kittle. Shanahan has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Note, too, that this will be Jerome Boger's crew who will be doing the officiating. Boger is infamous for his frequent defensive holding calls. The Over has covered 59 percent of the time in Boger's 164 games.
10-06-19	Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47		34-24	Loss	-109	90 h 5 m	Show
Aaron Rodgers produced a typical Rodgersesq game last Thursday against the Eagles. He was going against a battered Eagles secondary, though, and that game was an exception to how Green Bay's offense has performed this year. Matt LaFleuer has largely hijacked the Packers' offense with his commitment to run the ball more even though this isn't Green Bay's strength. Green Bay's offense has mostly struggled against the two elite defenses it has faced, Chicago and Minnesota, scoring an average of 15.5 points versus those two teams. Dallas' defense also is very good ranking third in fewest points given up. The Cowboys have four premier defenders in pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, cornerback Byron Jones and linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. The Packers could be without their top playmaker Davante Adams and right tackle Byron Bulaga, who has been the Packers' best offensive lineman this season. The Packers have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Their secondary is above average now due to upgraded safety play. The additions of Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith have improved their pass rush. Their run defense should be better now that underrated defensive lineman Montravius Adams is expected to play after missing the past two games. Adams is the reason the Packers felt strong enough to cut Mike Daniels. The Cowboys aren't going to do anything fancy. They are going to pound away with Ezekiel Elliott and play ball control keeping Rodgers off the field as much as possible.
10-06-19	Bears -4 v. Raiders	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	141 h 45 m	Show
The Raiders are 2-8 in their road games under Jon Gruden. They have been outscored by 130 points in those games. Statistically, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. But considering the caliber of opponents the Patriots have played compared to the Bears, I would go with the Bears being the No. 1 defensive team. I can't see the Raiders putting up many points here even if the Bears are minus Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks. Khalil Mack is sure to be fired-up playing against his former team. I actually like the Bears' offense more with Chase Daniel at QB instead of Mitch Trubisky. Daniel is the more polished, experienced and accurate passer. He doesn't have to do anything fancy just play with in his means for the Bears to roll past the Raiders. Minnesota buried the Raiders, 34-14, at home two weeks ago. The Bears just got done defeating the Vikings. This marks Oakland's third straight away contest. The game is being played in London, but time-wise it comes out to be a morning game for the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times on the road during an early start time.
10-06-19	Vikings -4.5 v. Giants		28-10	Win	100	140 h 28 m	Show
Daniel Jones has provided a spark to the Giants. Since he replaced Eli Manning, the Giants have gone 2-0. Those victories, though, were against the Buccaneers and Redskins. Now Jones has to step way up in class and face an elite defense, the Vikings. Jones doesn't have much skill position support either with Saquan Barkley out. The Vikings are in an angry mood after losing to the Bears last week. Don't think for an instant the Giants defense is any good just because they held the impotent Redskins to three points this past Sunday. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing better versus weaker competition. Look for the Vikings to open things up more, too, against the Giants making better use of star wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs to go with the dangerous Dalvin Cook in the backfield. The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings are at least two levels higher than the Giants and should win by double-digits.
10-06-19	Jets +14.5 v. Eagles		6-31	Loss	-135	87 h 5 m	Show
I'll take two touchdowns with the Jets figuring neither Sam Darnold nor C.J. Mosley, their best defensive player, are going to play. Mosley is surely out at least another week. It's a huge plus if Darnold can play. But I'm fine with Luke Falk under center at this high of a point spread. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They could be down their three best cornerbacks. They also are missing two defensive linemen and star defensive end Fletcher Cox is dealing with a foot aliment. So he might be out, too, or extremely hobbled if he does play. The Jets do get back defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, who is projected to be the best rookie defensive lineman in the NFL. Falk is who he is - a desperation third-stringer with limited talent. But at least now he's had time to work with the Jets' first-string offense. Adam Gase should be able to coach him up especially with the Jets coming off a bye. Falk has decent wide receivers and a workhorse running back, Le'Veon Bell, who also is one of the better pass-receiving running back. The Eagles go on the road for three straight away games following this matchup taking on the Vikings, Cowboys and Bills. They don't want to have to exert or show too much against this lowly non-division opponent. They will be happy just to get a win and get healthy.
10-06-19	Bills v. Titans -2		14-7	Loss	-110	87 h 52 m	Show
The Bills had great anticipation and hope before last Sunday's game against the Patriots. Those were dashed when the Bills' offense couldn't produce anything and Josh Allen got hurt. I respect the heck out of Buffalo's defense, but they are a deflated team this week and forced to go with journeyman backup QB Matt Barkley. Allen isn't accurate. Neither is Barkley. Allen was a running threat, however, and could make a big play. Barkley can't run, nor produce big plays. The Titans are a solid team that could be feared if Marcus Mariota is able to step up his game. Mariota showed signs of doing that last week. He has a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his pass protection was the best it has been all season last Sunday against the Falcons. The Bills' defense is much more physical and superior to the Falcons. The Titans, though, get their best offensive lineman, left tackle Taylor Lewan, back from suspension. Tennessee has edges at all the skill positions as the Bills can't match Derrick Henry in the backfield, nor Corey Davis at wide receiver.
10-05-19	Devils +101 v. Sabres		2-7	Loss	-100	16 h 29 m	Show
The Devils are in a foul mood after blowing a 4-0 lead at home last night to the Jets in a 5-4 shootout loss. I want the Devils going for me today after that shocking defeat. The Sabres are in a different frame of mind after opening their season with a 3-1 upset road victory against the Penguins. New Jersey has too much offense for the Sabres going four lines deep and with sharpshooters Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Nico Hischier, Wayne Simmonds along with rookies Nikita Gusev and Jack Hughes, the top overall pick in this year's draft. The Sabres can't match that kind of attack. The Devils are 8-3-1 in their last 12 meetings against the Sabres, including going 2-1 last season.
10-05-19	UMass v. Florida International -26	Top	0-44	Win	100	48 h 47 m	Show
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
10-05-19	Troy v. Missouri OVER 67		10-42	Loss	-110	14 h 27 m	Show
Missouri is averaging more than 38 points a game. The Tigers should easily exceed that number after being idle last week and taking on a bad Sun Belt defense in Troy. Missouri QB Kellen Mond is in line for a huge game as the Trojans rank 125th in pass defense. The Over has cashed each of the past five times Missouri has played following a bye week. Troy, though, can put up its share of points. The Trojans rank 12th in the nation in yards and 16th in scoring at 40.8 points a game. Both teams play up-tempo and fast, which is excellent for the Over.
10-05-19	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 45		25-34	Loss	-110	100 h 12 m	Show
Lots of running here between these two rare option-attack, ground-oriented teams. That's great for the Under. Air Force is averaging fewer than nine passes per game this season. Navy has thrown just 20 passes in its past two games. Another big key to a low-scoring game is each team plays stout run defense. Air Force has the 18th-best rush defense, while Navy ranks 14th in stopping the run. The Under has cashed in six of Air Force's last seven nonconference games. This is a huge rivalry matchup so intensity should be way up. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the schools have met, including last season.
10-05-19	Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State		31-12	Win	100	45 h 32 m	Show
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns. The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field. The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either. I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore.
10-05-19	Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53		13-24	Loss	-115	14 h 60 m	Show
Marshall can run the ball ranking 37th in the country in rushing. MIddle Tennessee State is weak stopping the run ranking 127th. The Blue Raiders have a bad defense all the way around surrendering 40 or more points in three of their four games. The Blue Raiders have played a very difficult schedule, however, taking on Michigan, Iowa and Duke. They are better offensively than what they have shown due to the competition. QB Asher O'Hara has completed better than 70 percent of his throws with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marshall ranks 111th in pass defense.
10-04-19	Jets +130 v. Devils		5-4	Win	130	9 h 10 m	Show
The Devils should be much improved with the additions of P.K. Subban, Wayne Simmonds and Nikita Gusev. But it's going to take time for all these new faces to gell. This is New Jersey's opening game. The Jets have the advantage of already having played a game. They lost 6-4 on the road to the Rangers Thursday night. The Jets outshot the Rangers, 47-32. Corey Schneider is slated to be in net for New Jersey. He hasn't been good the past several seasons because of injuries. I consider him now a below average goalie. The Jets are one of the most potent scoring teams in the league especially with Patrik Laine back on board. Winnipeg is 4-0-2 in its last six meetings with New Jersey.
10-04-19	Edmonton v. Hamilton OVER 46.5		12-42	Win	100	75 h 45 m	Show
The two teams met just two weeks ago. There were a combined 15 punts, but still 57 points were scored in Hamilton's 30-27 victory. That was the fourth time in the last five meetings the Over has covered in this series. The Tiger-Cats lead the CFL in scoring at 29.8 points a game. Dane Evans is not afraid to attack downfield averaging 11.2 yards per attempt in three of his last four games. The Eskimos have permitted 25 or more points in five of their last six games.
10-04-19	Cardinals -123 v. Braves	Top	0-3	Loss	-123	14 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have been red-hot during the past two months winning 34 of their last 50 games, including seven of their last nine road contests. Jack Flaherty has been a major cog during the Cardinals' stretch drive. There hasn't been a better pitcher during August and September than Flaherty. He is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA during his past 15 starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his past three starts and a 1.48 day time ERA on the season. All this bodes well for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Braves by scoring a combined six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to win, 7-6, in Game 1 of the series on Thursday. It was the Cardinals' 10th win in their last 13 road games versus Atlanta. The Braves have outstanding young talent. But some of that talent needs more maturity and is in a rough bounce back spot after such a tough home loss in the series opener. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has not fared well historically against the Cardinals with a 3-4 mark and 7.64 ERA in seven career starts.
10-03-19	Nationals v. Dodgers -165		0-6	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
I want the Dodgers going for me in this opening National League playoff series. LA is rested, has the better offense and bullpen. I also like the starting pitching matchup from a Dodgers perspective, too. Walker Buehler has been dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium going 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA there. The Dodgers think so much of Buehler they started him ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 15-3 when Buehler has pitching the opener of a series. Corbin has been much better at home than on the road where his away record is 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA compared to 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA at Nationals Park. Corbin is squaring off against an LA squad that set an NL record with 279 home runs and led the NL in runs.
10-03-19	Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48	Top	27-17	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
East Carolina has played five games under new head coach Mike Houston. Each game has gone Under the total. Will this one break the Under streak? I say no. I thought QB Holton Ahlers would be a lot better for the Pirates. But he hasn't. Ahlers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and his downfield throws have lacked accuracy. Temple has surrendered only one touchdown pass all season. The Owls give up just 17.2 points per game. They just defeated Georgia Tech, 24-2, last week. East Carolina has held its last two foes, William & Mary and Old Dominion, to an average of 14 points. Temple QB Anthony Russo has been picked off four times in the last two games. Russo has thrown at least one interception in all four of Temple's games. He completed just 9-of-22 passes against Georgia Tech. Note temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in Greenville with extremely high humidity. So that could take a toll on the players.
10-03-19	Panthers v. Lightning -1.5		2-5	Win	151	8 h 31 m	Show
The Panthers have missed the playoffs for the past three seasons. That string may end this season as the Panthers should be much improved. They've added players and opened up their checkbook. But it's going to take a while to get things going. This is a bad spot for the Panthers drawing Tampa Bay on the road. The Lightning dominated the regular-season tying the NHL record for most wins with 62. However, the Lightning were shockingly swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus. The Lightning have been in angry mood during preseason. Now they finally can put last season's early Stanley Cup disappointment behind them. They draw in-state rival Florida and the Panthers' new goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky. The irony isn't lost here. It was Bobrovsky who helped the Hurricanes sweep the Lightning in the playoffs with his stellar goal play. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning the past six meetings while averaging 5.1 goals in these games. The Lightning will be sky high for this long-awaited season-opener especially looking to get revenge on Bobrovsky.
10-02-19	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	1-4	Win	165	24 h 49 m	Show
The Golden Knights have been pointing to this matchup after losing to the Sharks in the playoff last season in a bitter and controversial series. Las Vegas gave an indication of this burying the San Jose, 5-1, this past Sunday in front of a sold out home crowd in the final preseason game. The Sharks haven't been sharp during preseason going 1-5. San Jose will be without suspended forward Evander Kane, too. I believe this is a kill spot for Las Vegas. So taking a big plus price on the puck line makes more sense to me than laying heavy juice on the side.
10-02-19	Capitals +129 v. Blues		3-2	Win	129	24 h 49 m	Show
Anytime the Capitals are an underdog my first look is going to be on them. Washington has retained its core group that helped win the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. The Capitals have had all summer to think about being drummed out of the playoffs in the first round by Carolina last year. The Capitals should be sky-high for this matchup against the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. St. Louis is still on Cloud 9 after winning its first Stanley Cup championship in its 51-year history. The Blues will be raising their Stanley Cup banner before the game in celebration. So the Blues aren't likely to be as focused and motivated as the Capitals. Washington has enjoyed good success when playing in St. Louis winning five of the past seven times there.
10-01-19	Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5	Top	3-4	Loss	-113	20 h 53 m	Show
On the surface, this sounds like a low-scoring game. The Brewers are going with Brandon Woodruff while the Nationals are pitching Max Scherzer with Washington manager Dave Martinez saying Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg could be used out of the bullpen if necessary. Perception doesn't fit reality here, though. Woodruff just came back from a two-month oblique injury. He's only pitched four innings since returning and won't be able to go far in this game. That means a lot of work for the Brewers bullpen. Josh Hader is the only Milwaukee reliever I trust. As for the Nationals, Scherzer isn't the imposing monster of past seasons. He was hurt this season with a back injury. He doesn't have a great postseason history - 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 career playoff games - and isn't in good form with a 6.11 ERA during his past three starts. Washington's relief pitchers had the highest ERA in the majors at 5.66. Corbin just pitched on Saturday. So he would be on short rest. If Martinez were to pitch Strasburg in relief it would have to be in absolute desperation because he would be using up his two best starters just in the wildcard game. Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Brewers are averaging 5.9 runs in their last 10 games, while the Nationals are averaging 6.7 runs during their past eight games. The weather forecast is calling for temperatures to be in the 80s with a slight wind blowing out. So it's an excellent setup for the hitters.
09-30-19	Bengals v. Steelers -3	Top	3-27	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups.
09-29-19	Cowboys -134 v. Saints		10-12	Loss	-134	96 h 55 m	Show
The Cowboys held the Saints to 10 points last season - when New Orleans had Drew Brees at QB. Teddy Bridgewater is a massive downgrade. Dallas is giving up fewer than 15 points per game this season. Bridgewater is not a downfield threat and doesn't have the mobility he once possessed. The Cowboys have the athletic and quick linebackers needed to contain Alvin Kamara and Bridgewater's short passing game. Dallas is well balanced and the healthier team. Dak Prescott is playing the best of his NFL career. The Cowboys rank fourth in scoring averaging 32.3 points. If the Saints load the box to stop Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott can beat them through the air. Dallas is much more dangerous offensively with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling the shots. The Saints are overrated at home where they have failed to cover in their past five games at the Superdome. They also are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall games. Dallas is the superior team right now on both sides of the ball. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Cowboys to beat the Brees-less Saints.
09-29-19	Jaguars v. Broncos -3		26-24	Loss	-115	92 h 18 m	Show
At 0-3 the Broncos are in desperation mode. The Jaguars are sure to get the Broncos' top effort. Denver is especially tough at home early in the season when opponents aren't in shape to deal with high altitude. The Broncos are 13-1 during their last 14 September home games. The Broncos' defense is better than it has showed. I'm not buying any Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew is far more game manager than gunslinger. He needs to heavily lean on Leonard Fournette, who is having a disappointing season so far. Forget, too, about Jacksonville returning to its playoff ways of two seasons ago. The Jaguars are more like last season's 5-11 team. Their offense lacks a downfield attack, Fournette may be in the wrong system and the defense isn't as dominant as last year missing some key players, including linebacker Telvin Smith. It's not a fluke the Jaguars have dropped 12 of their past 15 games while going 4-9-2 ATS during this span. They just aren't very good.
09-29-19	Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 47.5		27-10	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Russell Wilson is a magician and he's having another magical season with the third-highest passer rating and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson squares off against an equal opportunity Cardinals defense that can't stop the run nor the pass. Arizona ranks among the bottom-four in yards allowed and points per game surrendering nearly 30 a game. The Seahawks are down defensively from previous years particularly in the secondary where the Legion of Boom no longer exists. Kyler Murray has transformed Arizona's offense. He's the perfect QB for the Cardinals because of his quickness and nimbleness, which masks his team's offensive line weaknesses. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to begin opening the playbook more for Murray especially being at home. David Johnson is an elite runner due for a bust out performance and Larry Fitzgerald is relevant again thanks to Murray and the Cardinals' much improved offense.
09-29-19	Panthers v. Texans OVER 47	Top	16-10	Loss	-109	91 h 4 m	Show
Take away his legs and Cam Newton isn't a very good quarterback. I would agrue Carolina's offense is set up better with Kyle Allen at quarterback. Allen gets the start again this week after lighting up the Cardinals defense for four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-20 road win last Sunday. Allen is surrounded by playmakers. Christian McCaffrey is the best all-purpose back in the league. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are underrated speed weapons and Greg Olsen still is an effective pass-catching tight end. He had excellent rapport with Allen against the Cardinals catching six passes and scoring two touchdowns. This will be Allen's third NFL start. He led the Panthers to 33 points in his starting debut during Week 17 last season. Houston's pass defense ranks 23rd. The Texans have slow cornerbacks making them vulnerable to Moore and Samuel. The Panthers' defense hasn't improved as some were expecting. Defensive linemen Gerald McCoy looks old and Kawann Short missed last week with a shoulder injury. He's questionable this week. The Texans are averaging 30.1 in their last six regular season games discouting matchups against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson is an upper level QB and DeAndre Hopkins could be the top wideout in the NFL. Both of these teams rank in the top-10, too, in pace. So this should be a fast tempo game, a strong plus for the Over.
09-29-19	Browns +7.5 v. Ravens		40-25	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
Yes, the Browns were the most overhyped team entering the season. Now, though, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Browns aren't as bad as they've looked. This is a step down for the Browns after they played the Rams last week. Baltimore nipped Cleveland, 26-24, at home last season. The Browns are far more talented this season. It's taken a while, but I see Baker Mayfield and his talented skill position players putting the pieces together in this matchup. The Ravens' defense down is from a year ago and they have multiple injuries in their secondary. Mayfield will be able to spot open receivers. The Ravens are at their worst in the role of home favorite, too, where they are 1-7 ATS the past eight times, including failing to cover the last four times as home chalk. Baltimore is the most run-oriented team in the league. They are not built to cover margins like this especially in a huge division game.
09-28-19	Saskatchewan v. Toronto UNDER 49.5		41-16	Loss	-110	66 h 37 m	Show
Saskatchewan gives up the second-fewest yards in the CFL. The Roughriders have held five of their last seven opponents to fewer than 20 points. But the Roughriders have been held under 20 points in three of their last five games. Toronto averages just 20 points on the season. The Argos are the worst team in the league. But the Argos have been playing better defense. They held Ottawa to 17 points and Calgary to 23 points during their past two games. Calgary is the third-highest scoring team in the CFL. The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams, including in Week 2 when the Roughriders won, 32-7, at home.
09-28-19	SMU v. South Florida +8		48-21	Loss	-108	26 h 40 m	Show
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches. The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win. South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd.
09-28-19	USC v. Washington -10		14-28	Win	100	48 h 11 m	Show
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching. Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system. The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions.
09-28-19	Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin		15-24	Win	100	44 h 54 m	Show
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup. The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left. The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines.
09-28-19	Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan	Top	15-31	Win	100	26 h 13 m	Show
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
09-28-19	Kansas v. TCU -14		14-51	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25. Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas. The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches. This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns.
09-27-19	San Jose State v. Air Force -18	Top	24-41	Loss	-114	56 h 2 m	Show
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
09-26-19	Astros v. Angels +1.5		3-4	Win	140	12 h 16 m	Show
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are all out for the season. Scheduled starting pitcher Jaime Barria has a 6.43 ERA and has lost seven straight decisions. So am I in my right mind by backing the Angels here? Yes. I'll take 1 1/2 runs with the Angels based on the situation, who isn't going to start for Houston today and the horrendous September form of slated Astros starter Wade Miley. The Astros just played last night at Seattle and were involved in a near no-hitter by Zack Greinke. That was a highly emotional game. They got into LA very early today. Astros manager AJ Hinch said Jose Altuve and George Springer won't be in the starting lineup. He wants to rest them. Carlos Correa also won't be in the lineup either because of a sore back. Barria has been bad, but Miley has been worse this month with a mind-blowing 22.09 September ERA giving up 18 runs and 23 hits in only 7 1/3 innings! Given these factors, I believe the Angels can hang in.
09-26-19	Eagles v. Packers OVER 45	Top	34-27	Win	100	52 h 11 m	Show
The Eagles' defensive weaknesses are clear: Vulnerable secondary, just two sacks and down two defensive tackles. Aaron Rodgers should be in line for his biggest game of the season after facing three strong defenses - Bears, Vikings and Broncos. Rodgers hasn't been looking downfield as much as he has in previous seasons. That's partially the design of first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, who is trying to establish more of a run presence. But LaFleur can't be stupid enough not to encourage Rodgers to take advantage of the Eagles' 29th-ranked pass defense that has yielded seven TD passes in three games, including three TD passes and 380 yards to Case Keenum. Green Bay's defense is improved. No doubt there. It's quicker, faster and more athletic. But it's not as good as the early numbers may indicate. The Packers have been fortunate to open against these three QB's - Mitchchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. An above average quarterback can show that the Packers' defense is far from elite. The Eagles have that in Carson Wentz, who should get back his top wide receiver, Alshon Jeffery, from injury. The Packers' defense also carries a high fatigue rating even though it's early in the season. That's because Green Bay's defense was on the field for 73 plays against Denver this past Sunday as the Broncos won the time of possession battle, 35:34-24:26. So this being the Thursday game isn't doing the Packers' defense any favors.
09-25-19	Brewers -138 v. Reds	Top	9-2	Win	100	18 h 9 m	Show
No team is hotter than Milwaukee. The Brewers are a major league-best 18-4 this month. They are 16-2 in their last 18 games. The price and pitching matchup is worth it to ride the Brewers again today. Jordan Lyles has been outstanding since coming to the Brewers on July 29. Milwaukee is 9-1 in Lyles' 10 starts. Lyles has a 2.35 ERA with the Brewers and is in excellent form with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Reds are averaging only 2.3 runs in their last eight games. The Reds are dealing with a virus that has affected several Cincinnati players, including infielder Freddy Galvis. The Brewers are highly motivated and have tremendous momentum. If they win this game, they clinch a wild-card berth. The Reds just want the season to end. They are giving Tyler Mahle an extended look. The results haven't been good. Mahle, who is slated to start here, hasn't won since May. He's 2-11 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Mahle's ERA in his past three starts is 6.59.
09-24-19	Braves v. Royals OVER 9.5	Top	6-9	Win	103	19 h 51 m	Show
I can easily envision both teams scoring at least five runs in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Danny Duffy. Teheran has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts - both against the Phillies - giving up five homers during this nine inning span. Teheran also has given up a National League-high 4.31 walks per nine innings. Bad current form and bases on balls can be a deadly combination playing in an AL ballpark where the DH is used. The Royals are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 20 runs during their last two games. Neither pitcher is going to be helped by the weather conditions, which call for 14-to-15 mph wind blowing out to left. That's especially bad for southpaw Duffy. Atlanta ranks seventh in the majors in homers and eighth in runs. They have the fifth highest slugging percentage versus lefties in the National League. The Royals have the sixth-worst bullpen in the majors with a 5.05 ERA. Kansas City has been a solid Over play. The Over has cashed in 17 of the Royals' past 24 games for 71 percent.
09-23-19	Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +117	Top	9-7	Loss	-100	19 h 45 m	Show
The Cardinals were in a party mood after clinching their first playoff berth in four years after sweeping the Cubs with a 3-2 road win on Sunday. So the Cardinals might not have their full focus traveling West to take on the host Diamondbacks tonight. The pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus lefty Alex Young, who the Cardinals have never faced before. Wainwright is a brilliant 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA when pitching at home. However, his numbers are far worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 away starts. St. Louis is 1-7 the last eight times Wainwright has gone against a winning team on the road. The Cardinals are 21 games above .500 when facing a righthanded starter, but just 16-15 versus southpaw starters. Young is a rookie, but he has been a rock for Arizona holding 12 of his 15 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He has a 2.30 ERA in his past six starts.
09-22-19	Texans v. Chargers OVER 47.5		27-20	Loss	-110	133 h 16 m	Show
Expect a bounce back performance from Philip Rivers returning to LA after a tough game last week at Detroit. Austin Ekeler has proven he is more than capable of replacing Melvin Gordon even being a better pass-catcher out of the backfield. Deshaun Watson is due for a better game, too. The Texans are facing an easier defense than the Jaguars. Watson has all of his main receiving targets healthy. Both teams are vulnerable in the secondary. The Chargers are missing their starting safeties. They draw Watson after facing Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew during their first two games. That's a monster step up.
09-22-19	Saints +5.5 v. Seahawks		33-27	Win	100	133 h 13 m	Show
The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary.
09-22-19	Steelers +8 v. 49ers		20-24	Win	100	133 h 12 m	Show
The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
09-22-19	Nationals v. Marlins +195		3-5	Win	195	11 h 25 m	Show
The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79.
09-22-19	Raiders v. Vikings -7.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
09-22-19	Ravens +7.5 v. Chiefs		28-33	Win	100	130 h 52 m	Show
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher.
09-21-19	Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 63.5		34-37	Win	100	70 h 13 m	Show
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher. Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU. This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on. The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
09-21-19	New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 71		52-55	Loss	-110	43 h 47 m	Show
New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game. The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class. New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue. None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either.
09-21-19	Washington -6 v. BYU		45-19	Win	100	52 h 6 m	Show
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season.
09-21-19	Louisville v. Florida State -6.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	47 h 50 m	Show
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
09-21-19	Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 12		9-8	Win	102	3 h 57 m	Show
The wind is blowing out to left field like crazy at Wrigley Field in the 16-18 mph range. The oddsmaker can't set a total high enough when that happens. This is especially bad for Cubs lefty starter Jose Quintana, who has an 11.32 ERA in his last three starts. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't miss many bats so the weather conditions are not ripe for him either.
09-21-19	Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin		14-35	Loss	-110	64 h 44 m	Show
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory.
09-20-19	Utah -3.5 v. USC	Top	23-30	Loss	-103	75 h 31 m	Show
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
09-20-19	Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 53.5		23-16	Win	100	78 h 29 m	Show
The Stampeders defeated Toronto, 26-16, when the teams met earlier this year. That was the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams that the Under has won. I'm going to ride that trend in the rematch. Calgary is averaging 25.6 points in its last three games. The Argos have scored 26 points or fewer in eight of their 11 games this season. The Stampeders have held seven of their last nine opponents to 26 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in six of Calgary's past eight road games.
09-20-19	Calgary v. Toronto +6.5		23-16	Loss	-106	52 h 33 m	Show
Calgary is in a very dangerous situation here. The Stampeders just nipped East Division leader Hamilton, 19-18, at home last Saturday after trailing by 11 points at halftime. They are on the road in a revenge spot against Montreal next week. So it could become very easy for Calgary to overlook and come out flat against the 2-9 Argonauts. The Stampeders are on short rest, while Toronto was idle last week. The Argonauts entered their bye bolstered by a smashing 46-17 road win against Ottawa. Toronto is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games. The Stampeders have injuries and a poor recent track history in this type of role. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times laying points and 1-5 ATS the last six times they've met sub .500 opponents.
09-19-19	Houston +5.5 v. Tulane	Top	31-38	Loss	-110	33 h 33 m	Show
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
09-19-19	Padres v. Brewers OVER 8		1-5	Loss	-112	14 h 16 m	Show
Hard to believe, but there have been just 13 combined runs scored during the first three games of this series. Not surprising, all three games have gone Under. I see a turnaround coming in the finale of this series. The Padres are a strong offensive club on the road away from Petco Park. The Brewers rank eighth in the majors in homers. The Over is 13-4-1 (76 percent) the past 18 times the Brewers have played Game 4 of a series. The pitching matchup is lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Jordan Lyles. Lucchesi is coming off his worst outing giving up a career-high eight runs on nine hits - six of which went for extra bases - in just 3 2/3 innings in a 10-8 road loss to the Rockies this past Friday. That was at Coors Field. Miller Park, the site of this matchup, is another hitter-friendly park. The Brewers can expect to start righthanded hitters Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain against a southpaw starter. Braun and Cain didn't start Wednesday's game because San Diego threw righthander Dinelson Lamet. Lyles pitched for San Diego last year. So the Padres know him. Lyles has a 5.02 ERA in 13 career appearances against San Diego, including nine starts. The Padres have a .434 slugging percentage on the road compared to .398 at home. They also are batting .249 away compared to .232 at Petco Park.
09-18-19	Mariners v. Pirates OVER 9.5	Top	4-1	Loss	-105	18 h 55 m	Show
Mariners at Pirates Over 9 1/2 The Pirates are giving up an obscene 13.2 runs per game during their last four games. They have another bad starter going today with Dario Agrazal and their best relief pitcher, Felipe Vazquez, is in jail rather than in the bullpen after being arrested on Tuesday. The Mariners have scored at least five runs in five of their past six games. Agrazal holds a 7.08 ERA during his last eight starts. Safe to say the Mariners should produce their share of runs. But what about the shell-shocked Pirates? They aren't likely to have their two best offensive players with Josh Bell and Starling Marte both injured. It shouldn't matter because the Pirates are facing rookie Justin Dunn followed by journeyman Tommy Milone. Dunn looked completely overmatched in his big league debut this past Thursday giving up two runs while walking five in just two-thirds of an inning against the Reds. Dunn threw 37 pitches of which 23 of his throws were called balls. He clearly doesn't appear ready for the major leagues. Dunn isn't expected to go more than three innings before Milone comes on the scene followed by other relievers. Milone has a 4.93 ERA.
09-17-19	Mariners +123 v. Pirates	Top	6-0	Win	123	16 h 24 m	Show
Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games.
09-16-19	Browns -140 v. Jets	Top	23-3	Win	100	129 h 1 m	Show
I played this game early in the week before Sam Darnold was ruled out so was able to take a great money line price. I still like the Browns at the changed number, but not enough to recommend a max wager. The Browns are far from a complete team. But they have less warts than the Jets and should enter this nationally televised matchup humble, motivated and ready to prove the preseason hype about them is justified after they were embarrassed by the Titans at home this past Sunday. Baker Mayfield gives the Browns a monster talent edge at QB. The Jets defense fell apart against the Bills after losing linebacker C.J. Mosley. The Browns' offense is far superior to Buffalo's. Mosley, the Jets' defensive leader, and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams are both out. The Jets already are down injured linebacker Avery Williamson. Those are three significant defensive injuries for the Jets. Both team's have protection problems. But the Jets also have a weak secondary and lack a pass rush. Cleveland's Myles Garrett is one of the pass rushers in the NFL. He is my choice to lead the NFL in sacks this season.
09-15-19	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	28-10	Win	100	44 h 45 m	Show
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
09-15-19	Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5	Top	28-26	Loss	-110	116 h 25 m	Show
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
09-15-19	Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49		43-0	Win	100	44 h 29 m	Show
New England has its best defense in years. The Dolphins have the lowest paid and probably worst offensive line in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better backup than starting QB and Miami is below average at running back and at the receiver spots. So the Dolphins don't figure to put up many points. The Patriots aren't going to show much. There's no need for them to tip their hand against such a weak foe. The Patriots have been double-digit road favorites six times since 2015. The Under has won each team. The weather is going to be brutally hot with temperatures reaching the low 100's and high humidity. This is a game the Patriots should be satisfied to sit on a lead and get their reserves in early so as not to risk an injury to a frontline player especially since they already are missing two offensive line starters.
09-15-19	Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5		43-0	Loss	-110	44 h 26 m	Show
I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11. Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity. Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl.
09-15-19	Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans		12-13	Win	100	40 h 25 m	Show
This is more than just a division game, but a real rivalry. It remains to be seen just how much of a dropoff there is between Nick Foles and rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles has mostly been a backup in his career, although a top-notch one. Minshew demonstrated tremendous poise in replacing Foles against the Chiefs last Sunday completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 with two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars are run-oriented. Leonard Fournette is their featured player not the quarterback. Minshew has underrated wide receivers. He just has to manage this game, though, for the Jaguars to hang in. The Jaguars have an upper level defense. They were sixth in defensive efficiency last season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is one of the few who can hang against DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are playing on a short week after an exhausting road game against the Saints this past Monday night. The Texans have not shored up their porous pass protection particularly at right tackle. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times by New Orleans and endured 11 hits. The Jaguars have held Watson to two touchdown passes in three games and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars also have recorded 21 sacks in their last four games against the Texans.
09-14-19	Texas State v. SMU OVER 58		17-47	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air.
09-14-19	Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 51		25-27	Loss	-110	104 h 41 m	Show
These same two teams met on Aug. 9 in Montreal. Saskatchewan won, 17-10. There were just 372 combined yards of offense in that game. It marked the sixth time during the past seven meetings in this series that the Under won. I see another low-scoring matchup here. The improved Alouettes have held five of their last seven foes to 22 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in 11 of Montreal's last 16 away games. The Roughriders have yielded fewer than 20 points per game during five of their last six games. If you discount a 40-point performance against Ottawa, the Roughriders are averaging only 17.5 points in their last four games.
09-14-19	Montreal +7.5 v. Saskatchewan		25-27	Win	100	104 h 40 m	Show
Montreal has been a nice surprise this season. The Alouettes are back on track winning their past three games. They have been receiving excellent skill position play from QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is 6-2 as a starter this season. William Stanback and Jeremiah Johnson have become one of the better running back tandems in the CFL. The Alouettes have proven to be road warriors covering 10 of their last 13 away contests. Saskatchewan has failed to cover during its past five September games.
09-14-19	Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49		47-42	Win	100	30 h 50 m	Show
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games.
09-14-19	Hamilton +7 v. Calgary		18-19	Win	100	37 h 29 m	Show
Hamilton is 9-2, but not getting enough respect here especially considering the spot. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a bye while drawing Calgary off consecutive victories against arch rival Edmonton. The Stampeders have covered only once in six games when favored this season. The teams met in Week 5 and the Tiger-Cats won, 30-23, at home. Hamilton QB Dane Evans is coming off his finest game. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 since Evans replaced injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats haven't lost by more than seven points all year. Hamilton has held their last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points a game.
09-14-19	Maryland v. Temple +7.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
09-14-19	Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5		13-35	Win	100	24 h 57 m	Show
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.