Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances.

This is one of the highest spreads of the season. It's easily the most points the 76ers have laid all season.

Philadelphia just beat the Pistons in Detroit, 129-111, two days ago. That was Detroit's 21st loss in a row. The Pistons were booed off the court. Less pressure now for the Pistons being the road team and with nothing to lose since they are expected to get buried.

The 76ers might be able to name their score, but this isn't a kill spot for them. The 76ers can't help but feel overconfident. This marks Philadelphia's third game in five days. The 76ers play again on Saturday, going to Charlotte to meet the Hornets. The 76ers host the Bulls on Monday. So there is no reason for the 76ers to go all out here. Reduced minutes are likely for the 76ers' starters, especially fragile Joel Embiid.

Three things hurt the Pistons in their Wednesday loss to the 76ers: Embiid, lack of rebounding and 10 of 33 (30.3 percent) shooting from 3-point range. Embiid figures to play fewer than 30 minutes unless it's a close game. Maybe the 76ers will even give him a rest day. Who knows, it's today's NBA where superstars unexpectedly are ruled out right before post. The Pistons are a better rebounding team than they showed in the last game and their season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.8 percent, bad but better than 30.3 percent.  

Before Wednesday's game, the Pistons and 76ers met on Nov. 10 in Detroit. The 76ers won, 114-106, for just an 8-point victory.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

I hold tremendous respect for the Nets. They have the best point spread record in the NBA at 16-5-1. So I don't like to fade them. But it's not asking too much of the Suns to simply win this game even if Kevin Durant isn't ready to play after missing the last two games because of an ankle sprain. That's why I have them on the money line instead of laying a short number.

It's just a bonus if Durant can suit up. The Suns still have scoring stars Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.

The Suns aren't going to take the Nets lightly knowing they're going against former teammates Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. They don't want to lose to those two players, who were part of the package Brooklyn received when it dealt Durant to the Suns.

The Nets opened their West Coast trip with a 131-118 loss to Sacramento. The Suns have beaten the Nets four straight times.

Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively.

Memphis has drawn early money. It's a mistake.

The Grizzlies are 6-16. After a stretch of three wins in four games, the Grizzlies have lost and failed to cover in their past two games. They still have too many missing players to begin to turn the corner.

Houston has won 10 in a row at home. The Rockets give up the fewest points per game and rank second defensively in points per 100 possessions and defensive field goal percentage.

This line is shorter than it should be.

Behold this game has reached the highest total of the season. It's justified because these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA.

But Under is the right way to go with the total this large.

It's the third meeting between Indiana and Milwaukee. So the teams certainly know each other. They are the top two teams in the Central Division so there should be more than just the normal intensity.

The Bucks should be extremely motivated in a double-revenge spot. There were a combined 250 points scored in the first meeting and 247 points produced when the Pacers eliminated the Bucks in the semifinals of the NBA's in-season tournament six days ago.

Easy inside baskets should prove difficult to come by. Milwaukee's Brook Lopez is the NBA leader in blocked shots per game and Indiana's Myles Turner is a tremendous rim protector.

Everything has to go right for a total this large to go Over. The Bucks are a below average free throw shooting team. I don't see it happening. The teams couldn't reach this total in their earlier meetings and now they have even more familiarity with one another.

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss.

This is just the fifth time Cleveland is getting more than four points. The Cavaliers are 4-0 both straight-up and of course against the spread in those instances.

The Celtics haven't beat the Cavaliers by more than 10 points during the past two seasons spanning seven games.

The Mavericks won't have Kyrie Irving and will want to slow pace having played last night. Dallas could be minus Tim Hardaway, too. He missed the Grizzlies' game due to back spasms. The Lakers are in a letdown spot after winning the NBA's in-season tournament.

There were only 205 points scored when the teams met on Nov. 22 in Los Angeles.

It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech.

My handicap is based on three main things: Cal State Northridge averages 75 points at home, is the much better free throw shooting team and stronger on the boards.

Utah Tech averages fewer than 70 points a game and shoots just 68 percent from the foul line. The Trailblazers just lost, 63-62, as 7 1/2-point favorites at home two days ago. That can't do much for their confidence.

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers.

Indiana has been one of the top stories of the NBA this season reaching the finals of the inaugural in-season tournament. The Pacers got there by beating a number of elite teams, including the 76ers, Celtics and Bucks. The Pacers were the talk of the tournament before losing in the championship game to the Lakers in Las Vegas this past Saturday. Indiana players were rewarded $200,000 each for making it to the title game.

Now comes the letdown.

The Pacers had to fly to Detroit for today's game against the Pistons, a team that has lost 19 in a row. How excited and motivated can the Pacers be for this matchup? Not very.

Detroit, though, won't lack incentive. The Pistons are off a blowout road loss to the Magic this past Friday. They desperately want to end their hellish losing streak. The Magic are the sixth-best defensive team in the NBA. The Pacers are the second-worst defensive team in the league.

Only once have the Pistons failed to reach triple digits. The Pistons should score plenty of points here, maybe even enough to pull the outright upset against a foe whose players just got done participating in the biggest game of their pro careers.

These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105.

Now the Heat are much smaller favorites. I don't get it. But I am going to take advantage of it and lay the lower number.

Charlotte is 7-13. The Hornets have a losing home record. Miami has a winning road mark.

The Hornets shot a season-best 55.7 percent from the floor to beat the Raptors, 119-116, at home this past Friday in their previous game.

The Heat defeated the Raptors, 112-103, in Toronto this past Wednesday. That was two games ago. Miami lost, 111-99, at home to the Cavaliers in its past game three days ago. No shame in that. The Cavaliers are coming on winning nine of their last 12 games.

I like getting Heat coach Erik Spoelstra with three days to prepare coming off a blowout home loss. The Heat have a top-nine defense. I don't see the Hornets having another hot-shooting game like they did against the Raptors against a motivated, superior opponent.

Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers.

I think of the Cowboys as a bully. Now they get their rematch with the Eagles. You know what you're getting with the Eagles - an elite, resilient team that is well-coached. I can't say that about the Cowboys.

I wonder if the Cowboys' preparation wasn't thrown off by Mike McCarthy undergoing surgery for an acute appendicitis on Wednesday?

The Eagles have fortified themselves after getting blasted by the 49ers at home this past Sunday. Dallas Goedert, a top-five tight end, is expected to play after missing the last three games. Goedert opens the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts and makes things easier for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense by signing three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points.

Wagner is 2-0 at home. The Seahawks have a top-40 defense, have played a tougher schedule and are in good current form winning three of their last four, including the past two.

So I find Wagner worth backing in this spot in this price range.

No, I wasn't around for the Army-Navy game when Mr. Inside Glenn Davis and Mr. Outside Doc Blanchard were the stars. But I did see the 1963 game when Navy's Roger Staubach played. I still remember it, too.

So I understand this rivalry. I haven't always gotten involved betting-wise on this game, but I'm making an exception this season backing Army.

Why?

Army played the more difficult schedule, is the more rested team, has more momentum than Navy and the confidence of winning five of the past seven meetings.

The Black Knights have been idle since November 18. They have won their last three games beating Holy Cross, Coastal Carolina and stunning Air Force, 23-3, as an 18-point underdog.

Navy last played on November 25 when it was hammered by SMU, 59-14. The Midshipmen are in the American Athletic Conference. Army had a more difficult schedule being independent. The Black Knights upset Texas San Antonio from Navy's AAC, knocked off Air Force from the Mountain West Conference, lost to ACC teams Boston College and Syracuse, fell to Sun Belt champion Troy and were blasted by LSU, 62-0.

That defeat to LSU in which the Tigers ran up the score to enhance Jayden Daniels' Heisman Trophy chances skewed Army's season statistics.

It's difficult to lay points in what should be a very low-scoring game - as this matchup usually is. So I'm going to back my opinion that Army is the superior team by taking the Black Knights on the money line.

I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue.

Illinois lost by seven points at home to Marquette. Wisconsin beat Marquette by nine points just two games ago. Tennessee defeated Wisconsin by 10 points on the road.

A key for Tennessee is getting inside production from big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, which they've started to get.

An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far.


Mississippi State has played four straight Unders. The Bulldogs play slow and are on a cold streak. They haven't reached 60 points in either of their last two games.

Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.

The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.

Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.

Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.

The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.

When you have to count on Tom Wilson to do most of your goal-scoring your offense is in trouble. That's what's going on with the Capitals, who rank second-to-last in goals scored at 2.2 per game. Wilson, more goon/enforcer than scorer, has produced four of Washington's last six goals. 

I don't like this situational spot for Washington either.

This is the Capitals' first home since Nov. 24. They just concluded a five-game road trip that finished with a 4-1 loss to Las Vegas this past Saturday and a 6-0 defeat to Arizona this past Monday. Washington's concentration could be off having been gone from home for so long.

The spot also sets up well for Dallas. The Stars are off a poorly-played 5-4 road loss to Florida. The Stars had lost to Tampa Bay in their previous game. You have to go all the way back to last February to find the last time the Stars lost three straight games. 

This is the highest total of the NBA season. I'm not buying it. I get that the Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league at 128.4 points and have gone above 120 points in each of their five tournament games. The Bucks are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 122.3 points and have gone Over in their past four games.

But this matchup is different. It's a semifinal game of the NBA's tournament so the stakes are higher than normal. That means at least a semblance of defense should be forthcoming.

"We've got to be ready to defend those guys,'' Bucks guard Damian Lillard was quoted as saying about the Pacers. If Lillard is saying this then the Bucks must be serious about defending the Pacers since Lillard isn't exactly known for his stellar defense.

Keep in mind, too, this game is at a neutral site, Las Vegas. These teams aren't familiar with this setting. It's also a West Coast day time start so that could throw them off.

The teams met earlier this season on Nov. 9 at Indiana. The Pacers won, 126-124, for a combined 250 points. The Bucks shot 53 percent from the floor and made 23 of 26 free throws. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 54 points. Indiana shot 48 percent from the field and sank 18 of 20 free throws. Yet there weren't more than 250 points scored.

The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.

The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.

Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.

This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.

The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.

So why do I like the underdog Suns?

I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.

Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.

I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games.

Now the Wildcats take on Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan. in a Big 12/Big East battle. Kansas State is 6-2. The Wildcats aren't as good as their record, though. They could be 3-5 if they would have gone 0-3 in their overtime games instead of 3-0. Two of Kansas State's overtime victories came at home against Oral Roberts and North Alabama. The Wildcats were 13 1/2-point favorites and 19 1/2-point favorites in those contests. Those are the Wildcats' last two games.

The Wildcats made it to the final 8 in the NCAA Tournament last season. But no longer have the two best players from that team, Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Their top returner is Nae'Qwan Tomlin and he's out due to suspension.

The buy sign is back on the Golden Knights. Las Vegas is back on track posting consecutive 4-1 victories against the Canucks this past Thursday and Capitals two days ago.

The Golden Knights rank second in the NHL on defense. They've given up two or fewer goals in five of their past six games.

St. Louis is in action for the ninth time in 17 days. This is the fifth straight different venue for the Blues. They are 5-11 in their last 16 road games and have lost to Las Vegas 12 of the past 17 times.

The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of the time during their last 52 home games.

This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.

There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.  

The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.

The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.

The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.

I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game.

Iowa rolled past North Florida, 103-78, in its previous game this past Wednesday. That was a quick-paced game with North Florida throwing up 31 3-point shots. Purdue is not like that.

The Boilermakers lost, 92-88, as 5 1/2-point road favorites to Northwestern in their last game, which was three days ago. That game went into overtime. The score was 76-76 after regulation.

Purdue has a problem with turnovers, committing 15 or more in three of its last four games. The Boilermakers, though, usually are stout defensively. They rank 34th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 15th in 3-point defense.

This also is a Big Ten matchup where defense is stressed.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense.

Cleveland is the better team. But because of its quarterback situation with Joe Flacco starting we have an inflated line on the Rams.

The line is shaded to the Rams, too, because of Cleveland injuries. However, I expect both Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper to both play. Cooper actually is excited about Flacco starting because of Flacco's ability to throw deep.

If you discount the Rams' overtime victory against the Colts, their only wins have been against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA has lost both to the Bengals and Steelers. The Browns defeated the Bengals and split with the Steelers.

The Rams are a finesse team. The Browns are extremely physical. It's a bad matchup for the Rams and because of that this game is priced incorrectly.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team.

The Bluejays are a top-40 scoring and defensive team. They rank 18th in 3-point field goal accuracy. The Bluejays also are a much better rebounding team than Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers have been favored in each of their previous seven games. Their schedule has been so weak they've been favored by at least 14 1/2 points in five of their seven games. Nebraska still doesn't have its full complement of rotation players either.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup.

Nevada is good. Loyola Marymount is an average West Coast Conference team. The Lions are 5-3, but have played very weak competition. Their victories have been against Westcliff, Jackson State, FIU, UTEP and Central Arkansas. The Lions' losses have occurred to Yale, Stephen F. Austin and Oakland.

It's a step up for the Lions to play on the road against Nevada. A key is Nevada doesn't turn the ball over, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin. Loyola Marymount is 216th in that important category.

The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good.

Louisville ranks 19th in total defense. The Cardinals catch a major break with Florida State QB Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles could only manage 24 points against Florida last week minus Travis. The Gators had surrendered an average of 41.2 points during their last five games before holding Florida State to 24 points.

Backup Seminoles QB Tate Rodemaker completed fewer than half of his passes for only 134 yards and no touchdowns against the Gators. FSU stud wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are far less effective without Travis throwing to them. Florida State is more run-oriented now with Rodemaker under center. Louisville has the 12th stingiest run defense in the nation.  

Florida State has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Seminoles have faced better quarterbacks than Louisville's Jack Plummer.

Note, too, that the game is being played in Charlotte where the weather forecast is for an 80 percent chance of rain. That should ensure more running plays.

This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.

Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.

So I'll take this many points given these factors.

The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.

Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.

UNLV had been playing well above its head all season - until this past week when it lost at home as a short favorite to San Jose State. The Rebels made huge strides in Barry Odom's first season as their head coach. 

But now the Rebels' lack of experience in big games shows up. This is the first time UNLV is participating in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Boise State, on the other hand, is making its sixth appearance in the last seven years in the Mountain West title game. 

The Broncos have had some close, tough losses. Now, though, they are in a good place under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson going 2-0 since firing Andy Avalos. 

Boise State can ride two of the best running backs in the conference, Ashton Jeanty and George Holani. UNLV doesn't have the defense to stop them ranking 85th in total defense and 69th in run defense.

The Rebels don't play their home games on campus. So even though this game is in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium on the Strip - where the Raiders play - there is not much of a home field edge. Boise State travels well, too.  

There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon's defense has picked up the pace, too, holding Arizona State to 13 points and Oregon State to seven points during its last two games. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to an average of 14.4 points. These were quality opponents, too - Utah, California, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State.

Washington has looked better, too, defensively. The Huskies are giving up an average of 23 points in their last three games facing Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington.

The Wizards may be the worst defensive team in the NBA and they are coming off a terrible performance. That came against Orlando two days ago in a 139-120 road loss to the Magic. It was the Magic's eighth straight victory. Now there's a quick rematch.

The Wizards have short revenge. The Magic have their own revenge game up next when they meet the Nets on Saturday. Brooklyn defeated Orlando by 20 points Nov. 14. Washington is looking for redemption. Orlando is looking ahead.

Even given Washington's defensive shortcomings, the Magic don't figure to achieve season highs in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and assists like they did against the Wizards in Wednesday's lopsided victory. The Magic shot 60.7 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 27 3-pointers in that game.

Not only should the Wizards mentally be in an all-in type of mood, but physically they shouldn't hold anything back because they don't play again for five days. The Wizards have their pluses namely offense. They rank in the top-10 in points, field goal percentage and free throw shooting.

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season.

Both teams, though, have been slow out of the gate. Each is 1-5.

I'm not sold on Rider laying road points here. The Broncos' only victory came at home against non-Division I Immaculata. All five of their defeats occurred on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their road matchups.

The Saints are 25-9 in their home MAAC openers.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog.

Louisiana Lafayette has won three in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy, sinking nearly 41 percent of their 3-point attempts.

Samford has played one of the easiest schedules in the land. The Bulldogs haven't defeated an opponent ranked higher than 285th in the KenPom rankings. Yet they are just 1-5 ATS in their lined games.

Samford's biggest weakness is defending against the 3-pointer where it ranks 267th.

I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy.

But this is a spot where the Pistons can hang in and cover the number.

The Knicks are fat and happy. They just destroyed the Hornets, 115-91, at home on Tuesday. It's New York's fourth home game in six days. Up next for the Knicks is a road game tomorrow night against the Raptors, who just upset the Suns last night.

So I question the Knicks' motivational and intensity level for this game. It's the most points the Knicks are laying all season. They have a bottom-five offense. That's not ideal when laying a large number.

It's also the most points the Pistons are receiving all season. The only other time the Pistons were a double-digit underdog they nearly upset the Bucks, losing by two points as a 12-point road 'dog.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number.

The Suns have won seven in a row, covering in their last four games. This 7-0 streak has coincided with the return of Devin Booker from a calf injury that caused him to miss five games.

The Suns will be well rested. They last played on Sunday.

Toronto, on the other hand, carries a high fatigue rating. The Raptors lost on the road by eight points to the Nets last night. Toronto had four players log at least 32 minutes in that loss. This marks the Raptors' sixth game in nine days.

The Kings are home, playing much better than the Warriors and have double revenge. So it's not too much to ask them to simply win this game.

Sacramento is 7-2 in its last nine games. Sparked by the return to health of underrated star DeAaron Fox, the Kings rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency during this span. The Kings concluded a six-game road trip this past Friday beating Minnesota, which has the top record in the Western Conference, so they've had ample rest and preparation time.

This is just the Kings' sixth home game. They are 4-1 in Sacramento.

Golden State has played just one road game since Nov. 8. The Warriors are 1-3 in their last four away contests with that victory occurring against the 2-15 Pistons.

While the Kings are 7-2 in their last nine games, the Warriors are 2-7 in their past nine games. Golden State's only victories during this time frame were versus the Spurs and Rockets. They went 0-2 against the Timberwolves, who the Kings just defeated by 13 points.

Draymond Green is eligible to return from his five-game suspension. That may work against the Warriors, though, in his first game back because Green could be rusty, or he could cause chemistry issues with his in-your-face style.

The Kings haven't forgotten the Warriors nipping them, 102-101, on Nov. 1 at Golden State when Klay Thompson hit a contested jumper with two-tenths of a second left.

What do you do when idiots meet? Take the Over. That's what I'm doing in this matchup between the two worst teams in the NBA, Wizards and Pistons.

Both teams are 2-14. The Wizards have lost nine in a row. That's nothing, though, compared to the Pistons. They've dropped 13 consecutive games.

Defense is the problem for these two teams. The Wizards rank last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring defense giving up
125.1 points a game. Detroit gives up 117.2 points per game. That number goes up to 128.3 if you just count the Pistons' last three games.

The Wizards play fast, too, ranking second in tempo. The Pistons are in the top-12 in pace, too, and will have fresh legs. This is only their second game in a week.

So expect a fast-paced game with zero defense.

I'm looking for the Panthers to break out of their two-game offensive funk against Ottawa, which has a below-average defense. The Senators have permitted 3 or more goals in nine of their last 12 games. 

The Senators can be counted on to score, though. They are averaging 3.7 goals in their last seven games. Florida has allowed 3 goals in each of its last three games.

The Over is 7-2-1 the last 10 times these teams have met. 

It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. 

Bellarmine is improving. The Knights covered against Kansas State, losing 83-75, on the road and blew out Bowling Green on the road. They are tested and dangerous to West Virginia in this spot.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season.

The Browns also aren't going to have Denzel Ward, their best cornerback.

So I have to side with the Broncos given their strong quarterback edge with Russell Wilson versus rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will be making only second career NFL start. Cleveland's passing attack is very much limited with Thompson-Robinson behind center.

Sean Payton ran his mouth during the off-season about how bad Nathaniel Hackett was with the Broncos last season. It wasn't a classy thing to do, but Payton was right. Russell Wilson is having a strong bounce back season under Payton with a 19-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This is a tough situational spot for the Browns. They are off consecutive narrow AFC North Division victories against the Ravens and Steelers. Their intensity could be down a notch going against this AFC West opponent.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12.

The 3-8 Bears conclude their season with this matchup. It sure looks like they've already packed it in with four straight losses following a 42-17 road loss to TCU last Saturday. Baylor has one of the worst point spread marks in the country at 2-8-1 ATS. 

Baylor was supposed to be solid on defense under Dave Aranda. That hasn't been the case at all. The Bears rank 117th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. 

Sparked by dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene, the Mountaineers rank fifth in the nation in rushing. They are averaging 38.6 points in their five games if you discount a 59-20 loss to Oklahoma. 

Baylor doesn't have the players, nor the desire, to keep up. The Bears are likely to start backup QB Sawyer Robertson after Blake Shapen suffered chest and head injuries against TCU. Robertson has made three starts this season. The Bears have averaged 8.6 points during those starts. 

I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form.

So I'm on the Heat here against the Nets.

Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Heat's two losses during this 11-game stretch occurred to the Bulls by five points and to the Knicks by two points yesterday when Miami blew a 21-point third quarter lead. 

The Heat rank fifth in the NBA defensively holding foes to 107.6 points a game. Brooklyn ranks 21st defensively giving up an average of 116.2 points. 

The Nets have been vulnerable lately in giving up 3-point baskets, allowing an average of 16.2 in their past four games. The Heat rank sixth in the league in 3-point shooting.

Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.

What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.

Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week. 

Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. 

Maryland is averaging 20 points during its past half dozen games. Rutgers ranks 11th in the nation in fewest yards allowed. The Scarlet Knights give up 19.1 points a game.

Think defense here - typical of the Big Ten - because I'm not overly fond of Rutgers quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, either. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game all season. Rutgers is averaging 7.3 points in its last three games. The Scarlet Knights also play extremely slow, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo. 

Maryland shut out Rutgers in last season's game. 

I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct.

Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league at 3-11. The Suns are 9-6 and dangerous with a healthy Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix has won five in a row, including its past four road games.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 at home. The Suns won't be taking them lightly following a 123-115 win against the Warriors this past Wednesday when Phoenix nearly blew a 23-point lead. This is what Booker said after the game: "We have to do better. Simple as that. We have to take care of the ball, no turnovers, get stops. When that game's 10, 15 points in the fourth, don't give any team hope, don't give any team confidence.''

The Grizzlies are off a deflating 20-point road loss against the Rockets also this past Wednesday. Memphis ranks last in field goal percentage and in 3-point defense. The Suns rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting percentage.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are superstars. They are superstars because of their scoring abilities, not their defense. Both have negative plus/minus marks on the season.

Lack of defense and bad goaltending are serious problems for the Oilers. Washington has picked up its scoring in such a way that it renders its season statistics almost meaningless.

It's because of this that I believe these teams will combine for at least seven goals.

Edmonton ranks 30rd in the NHL defensively allowing 3.9 goals a game. The Oilers have permitted 4.6 goals a game during their past three games. The Capitals have come on to score at least three goals in eight of their last 10 games.

Despite their defensive woes, the Oilers are dangerous because of their high octane offense and deadly power play. They have produced three or more goals in each of their last five games, hitting the four-goal mark in four of those contests.

Note that the Over is 4-1-1 the past six times these teams have met.

No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. 

BYU, on the other hand, is riding high at 5-0. One of the Cougars' wins was against then 17th-ranked San Diego State, 74-65, at home. 

No doubt BYU will be ASU's most difficult opponent. But the Sun Devils have been a good 'dog team, have had substantial prep time and are drawing good line value.

This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. 

It's just plain too many points in this long-time bitter division rivalry. If the Commanders lose big here on national TV, Ron Rivera could be fired on Black Friday. You have to believe the Commanders are primed to provide their best effort.

But will it be good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Dallas?

Yes. Washington looked horrible in losing to the Giants last week. Let's not forget, though, how tough the Commanders played the Eagles in both of their meetings this season,  losing the first one in overtime and the second, 38-31, after leading in the fourth quarter. 

The Cowboys have played nine of their 11 games against below .500 opponents. Unlike some of the Cowboys' victims such as the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Jets, the Commanders have back-door capabilities with a top-10 passing attack spearheaded by mobile and resilient Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20.

The Jazz covered all four of their games versus the Lakers last season.

Utah is getting better as its backcourt gets in sync. The Jazz are 2-2 in their last four games with their only defeats during this span coming by 3 points each to the Suns, one of which went into overtime.

Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. 

I get that. 

But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points. 

Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup. 

The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing. 

The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games. 

The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.

Miami had won seven straight games entering this past Saturday's road matchup against the Bulls. The Heat scored 22 of the first 23 points against Chicago leading them to overconfidence.

The Heat still looked like they would coast to the victory. Miami was ahead by 10 points with 8:04 left.

But the Bulls, to their credit, hung in and pulled the game out.

Now it's short revenge time for Miami. The Heat are the superior team. They won't lack motivation or overconfidence in this quick turnaround, revenge spot.

The 5-9 Bulls haven't won back-to-back games all season. I don't see them doing it here.

The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs.

The keys have been a resurgent Denver defense and a turnaround season from Russell Wilson, who has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson will be helped by the Vikings being minus their second-leading tackler, injured linebacker Jordan Hicks.

The Vikings have pulled off a pair of upset wins the past two weeks with newcomer Joshua Dobbs as their QB. Dobbs is a better runner than thrower. His stock is at an all-time high. Dobbs, though, is not an accurate passer, nor a downfield threat. He's really just a game manager with good legs. This should not be forgotten amidst all of the adulation for him during his remarkable stint with the Vikings.

Dobbs needs weapons and he won't have them here. Justin Jefferson remains out. The Vikings probably will be down to third-string tailback Ty Chandler to handle the bulk of their running. T.J. Hockenson is available, but is severely banged-up.

Winnipeg was upset by Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. I can see the Blue Bombers getting upset again by a hot Montreal team. I'll certainly take more than a touchdown to find out. All the pressure is on the Blue Bombers.

No defense has played better down the stretch than Montreal's. The Alouettes have won seven in a row. They've given up only 14.1 points a game during this seven-game stretch. Montreal's defense really got good with mid-season acquisitions of middle linebacker Darnell Sankey and defensive lineman Shawn Lemon.

Some of the Blue Bombers' offensive edge is lessened by their best wide receiver, Dalton Schoen, dealing with an ankle injury.

Winnipeg beat Montreal in both regular season games, 17-3 and 47-17. But that was back in July and August. The Alouettes are a different team now particularly on defense. So I'll take the better defense and the points.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks.

Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back this past Sunday against the Falcons. Murray showed he hasn't lost his magical ability to escape pressure and be a big-time quarterback. The Falcons found that out first-hand losing to the Cardinals.

The offensive season statistics of the Cardinals should be tossed out. Their offense is much more dangerous now with Murray, who has all his weapons healthy with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and emerging tight end force Trey McBride. Murray can attack a banged-up Houston secondary that ranks 24th.

Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland.

The Pilots do two things: Turn the ball over frequently and miss a lot of 3-point shots. Portland averages 18 turnovers a game and ranks 267th in 3-point accuracy. 

Nevada commits the 11th-fewest turnovers in the nation. The disciplined WolfPack should cover this number being home and matching up well to Portland. 

Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately.

During their last five games, the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma, rolled past BYU, only beat Houston by seven points as a 23 1/2-point favorite, edged Kansas State in overtime and nearly blew a 20-point halftime lead against TCU before holding on for a 29-26 victory last Saturday. The Longhorns have been outscored by 30 points in the fourth quarter during their last two games.

Quinn Ewers isn't an elite QB and the Longhorns lost their best running back, Jonathon Brooks, for the season against TCU when he suffered a knee injury.

Now the Longhorns have to go to Ames to take on spunky and well-coached Iowa State. The Cyclones are 4-1 in their last five games, losing only to Kansas during this stretch. Iowa State has a shot to play in the Big 12 title game if it can beat the Longhorns.

Texas hasn't won in Ames since 2017. The Longhorns nipped the Cyclones, 24-21, at home last season failing to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites. Iowa State had beaten Texas the three previous seasons.

The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results.

South Carolina opened 2-6 because it had the toughest schedule up to that point. But now the Gamecocks sit 4-6 after double-digit victories versus Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. If the Gamecocks win this game and their finale against Clemson, they'll qualify for a bowl game. So they have motivation.

Kentucky already is bowl eligible thanks to an easy early-season schedule where it went 5-0 being favored by 13 or more points in four of those games. Since then, though, the Wildcats have gone 1-4 SU and ATS. 

This spot isn't good either for the Wildcats. They just got beat up by Alabama and have in-state rival Louisville up next. 

South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has played much better at home with 15 TD passes compared to only two TD throws on the road.

Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game.

Minnesota is a ground-oriented team. The Gophers rank 125th passing. So they'll be staying on the ground.

The key to making this Under work is how many points will Ohio State produce?

The Gophers have a slightly above average defense. Ohio State has Michigan in its game of the year up next. So the Buckeyes won't want to show much. Just dominate early and get out. That was exactly what they did against Michigan State last week.

Ohio State went up 35-3 against the Spartans. The Buckeyes then took their foot off the gas pedal winning, 38-3.

Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. 

North Carolina State has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Wolfpack have held their last three opponents - Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson - to a combined average of 9.6 points. The Wolfpack rank 20th in fewest yards allowed per game and are fourth in the nation in takeaways. 

Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in fewest yards allowed. The Hokies held Syracuse to 10 points and Wake Forest to 13 points during two of their past four games. North Carolina State is averaging 18.2 points in its last four games. 

Both teams rate among the top-10 in slowest tempo during their last three games.  

There hasn't been more than 41 combined points scored during North Carolina State's last four games. The average combined score during their Wolfpack's last four games is 31.5 points. Virginia Tech has been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season.

The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.

But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.

The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.

Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.

The Kings are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They have produced 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games. The Kings should really be on the attack after losing their last game, 4-2, at home to the Flyers. That was back on Saturday so they'll have fresh legs.

Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to be in net for Florida. He's a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, but struggles against LA with a career mark of 3-9-2, an .898 save percentage and 3.04 goals-against average.

The Panthers should be fully adjusted to West Coast time after a flat performance in San Jose against the woeful Sharks two days ago. The Sharks rank last in the NHL in scoring at 1.3 goals, but they scored three times versus Florida. The Panthers scored five goals to pull out the victory. They know they have to play much better to beat the Kings.

Florida is averaging 4.6 goals in its last five games, while giving up an average of 3.3 goals in its last six games. The Over has cashed in Florida's past six games.

The two teams also have gone Over in six of their past eight meetings.

When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six.

Portland is 3-6. Utah is worse at 3-7.

This is the Jazz's first home game in 12 days. So their focus could be off. Only once have the Jazz beaten a team by more than six points. That was against the 2-8 Grizzlies.

The Trail Blazers have road victories against the Pistons and Raptors. They lost by three to the Kings and by six to the Lakers on their current road swing, covering both games. The Trail Blazers have covered five of their last six games.

Portland has won the past three meetings against the Jazz, including twice at Utah last season.

The Blues are 4-1 in their last five games. They stunned Colorado, 8-2, on the road in their last game this past Saturday. Tampa Bay lost its last two games, both at home to the Blackhawks and to the Hurricanes in their last game four days ago.

Yet the Lightning are a solid road favorite here. The oddsmaker is telling you Tampa Bay is the better team. I agree. The Blues have been playing above their heads.

Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper is really stressing the importance of this road matchup following two straight home defeats. The Lightning didn't have star scorer Nikita Kucherov against Carolina. Kucherov was ill, but he returned to practice yesterday and is expected to play.

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.