This a battle of two disappointing, injury/illness racked teams. Yes, the Clippers are missing several key players, including Paul George. But the Nuggets also are minus important players, including Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and possibly Aaron Gordon.

So I see no reason why the Nuggets should be this high of road chalk.

The Nuggets will have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic. The Clippers have the big body depth to defend him, though, with a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac.

Denver is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games.

The Clippers have been up and down. They won four in a row before losing three straight. The Clippers halted that losing skid in their last game, a 105-89 road win against the Kings four days ago. The Clippers are 21-6-1 ATS when playing on three or more day's rest. They also are 9-3 ATS the last 12 times as a home 'dog.

The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington.

Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday.

The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center.

Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games.

Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up.

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. 

The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. 

The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. 

Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. 

I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired.

Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons. 

The 6-8 Falcons still are alive for a playoff spot, though. This is a get well game for them and the timing couldn't be more perfect. 

The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. 

Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. 

Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. 

So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. 

The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. 

The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. 

Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. 

The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. 
The Eagles are on a short week having beaten COVID-19 decimated Washington, 27-17, this past Tuesday night. The Eagles might not have their head coach, Nick Sirianni. The Eagles have the most inexperienced coaching staff in the NFL. It's a challenge for them to prepare on such a short week.  

The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. 

Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. 

The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. 

There's a certain ying/yang, zig/zag flow to the NFL season. Similar to the stock market, there is a buy low time. That time is now to get the Cardinals.

Arizona is better than the 3-4 record it has during the last seven games, while the Colts aren't as good as their 5-1 record during their past six games. The Cardinals looked terrible losing to the Lions last week, while the Colts were outstanding in handling the Patriots last week.

I expect a change-up this week and the price certainly is cheap enough to back the home Cardinals in circle-the-wagons mode.

The teams have had eight common opponents. The Colts went 4-4 SU and ATS against those foes while the Cardinals went 7-1 SU and ATS.

Indy needs Jonathan Taylor to succeed. But the Colts' excellent offensive line has injuries and COVID issues. They could be down as many as three O-line starters. Kyler Murray draws all the attention, but the Cardinals defense has been very good giving up the fifth fewest points in the league.

Murray holds a huge edge on Carson Wentz. James Conner has 16 TD's, just three fewer than touchdown leader Taylor.

I'm expecting an all-out desperation effort by the Cardinals. The Colts, on the other hand, could be flat after last week's performance and deflated knowing their long shot division chances took a huge hit when the Titans upset the 49ers this past Thursday.

This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers.

Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. 

The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. 

Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. 

Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing. 

The Cardinals don't have much offense either, ranking 94th in scoring and 109th in total yards. Georgia State held five opponents to one offensive TD. The Panthers had a school-record 84 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. They also have the best defensive back in Antavious Lane, who has four interceptions and 72 tackles. 

Certainly the situation spells Under with the Hawks and Knicks meeting early Christmas morning after being idle Christmas Eve.

The Hawks don't have any firepower. A COVID-19 outbreak has taken away all of Atlanta's explosive scorers, including Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams and Kevin Huerter. De'Andre Hunter also is out due to a wrist injury. That leaves the Hawks with very little firepower as evidenced by their scoring 98 points in each of their past two games.

The Knicks are going to be stressing defense after Tom Thibodeau ripped them for giving up 124 points to the Wizards in a 124-117 loss this past Thursday.

The Hornets conclude their six-game, 11-day road trip in Denver's high altitude. Key rotation player Cody Martin is out for Charlotte and Gordon Hayward is questionable with a back injury. 

The Nuggets won't be feeling sorry for the Hornets, who have lost their last three games by nine points to the Trail Blazers, 31 to the Suns and 10 to the Jazz. Denver is off a 108-94 road loss to the Thunder where the Nuggets were 6 1/2-point favorites. Previous to that game, though, Denver hadn't played since Friday. So the Nuggets shouldn't be rusty like they were against the Thunder. They also shouldn't be fatigued either since nobody played more than 27 minutes last night.

Charlotte is 10-21 ATS the past 31 times as an underdog. The Hornets have failed to cover during their last four visits to Denver. 

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

The perceived thinking about this Armed Services Bowl pitting Missouri versus Army is this: Army's triple-option attack is going to run rough shot against a Tigers defense that ranked 125th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the run and that the Tigers are going to put up their share of points having averaged nearly 30 points during the regular season.

I don't see either occurring. 

Army is strictly one-dimensional. The Cadets have no passing attack. They will be running the ball - eating clock - all game no matter what the score. Missouri's run defense is not as bad as its season statistics indicate. The Tigers greatly improved their rush defense down the stretch. They held South Carolina to 57 yards on the ground in 35 attempts three games ago and two games ago held Florida to 93 yards rushing on 33 carries for a 2.4 yard average. 

The Cadets may be flat, too, off a tremendously disappointing loss to arch-rival Navy in their last game. Army managed just 124 yards rushing against the Midshipmen on 33 carries, a 3.7-yard average. 

As for Missouri, its offense isn't nearly the same - nor effective - minus star all-purpose running back Tyler Badie. He produced 1,934 rushing and receiving yards while scoring 18 TD's. He opted out. The Tigers also are going to give Brady Cook his first career start instead of going with their regular quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,548 yards and 16 TD's during the regular season. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz was not pleased with Bazelak's performance in Missouri's last game hence the QB switch. 

Army ranks 15th in total defense and 36th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points a game. 

Note this game is being played in Spokane, Wash., so it's a neutral site game. That's a plus for the Under. So is the defense of these teams.

Boise State gives up the 29th fewest points in the country. Washington State ranks in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass.

The Broncos have gone Under in nine of their last 12 games, while the Under is 6-1 in Washington State's last seven games.

Keegan Murray is back to full strength scoring 35 points against Utah State in the Hawkeyes' last game this past Saturday. That's bad news for Southeastern Louisiana and good news for the Over. Murray had been slowed by an ankle injury, which hampered his performance in a loss to Iowa State. 

This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2.

The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. 

Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. 

Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them.

Strength of schedule is huge here. Charlotte's last three games have been against Arkansas, Valparaiso and Wake Forest.  Maryland Eastern Shore has played far easier opponents. So the 49ers are stepping way down in class. The 49ers are a far better shooting team than Maryland Eastern Shore both from the field and foul line.  

Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans.

His toe may hurt, but Aaron Rodgers is in MVP-form with a 10-to-zero TD-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Packers are averaging 37.3 points during this span. Davante Adams has been at his masterful best during the last three games, too, with 25 receptions for 340 yards and four TD's. Rodgers and Adams face a Ravens secondary full of injuries.

Tyler Huntley proved himself last week if Lamar Jackson can't play. Huntley was 27-of-38 passing for 270 yards with one TD pass and no interceptions against the Browns after Jackson suffered an ankle injury early in the game.

Green Bay is surrendering 30.6 points in its last three games.

Special teams are another factor. The Ravens have the best special teams in the league, including the top kicker. The Packers are well below average in special teams coverage.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

On the surface this total may seem correct since the Texans are averaging just nine points in their last three games, while the Jaguars are averaging 9.1 points during their last seven games.

But the dynamics have changed. I doubt we see the combined 58 points that these teams put together opening week when Houston beat Jacksonville, 37-21. I do see, though, enough points being produced to safely get this above the listed total.

The Texans have had enough of veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills is auditioning for the starting quarterback role. The Texans want to see what they have in Mills so they want him to air it out. Mills threw a season-high 49 times for a career-high 331 yards against the Seahawks last week. Mills has a pair of quality wide receiver targets, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 26.2 points a game.

I'm expecting the Jaguars' offense to become much better without Urban Meyer around to screw things up. Returning this week for the Jaguars is their center Brandon Linder, who was out with a back injury. James Robinson is expected to get a full workload - something Meyer should have done. This will make things easier for Trevor Lawrence, who also should come up big minus Meyer.

Houston has permitted 64 points during its last two games and are down key defenders due to injuries, sickness, or getting rid of.

Buffalo ranks first in total defense and third in scoring defense giving up 17.6 points a game. The Panthers have no passing game and their ground attack is greatly lessened with Christian McCaffrey out. The Panthers have become a full-fledged ground-and-pound team - excellent for Under the total - when they fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Panthers are averaging fewer than 20 points a game.

Josh Allen isn't 100 percent because of a foot injury. He's taking on a Carolina defense that ranks No. 1 in pass defense and gives up the second-fewest yards per game. Allen has turned the ball over at least once in each of the last six games committing 10 turnovers during this span.

This is a December game in Buffalo so the weather is going to be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the high 20's with 10 mph winds.

Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. 

Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games.

The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. 

The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. 

Louisiana Lafayette has a tremendous defense. The Cajuns supplement their defense by playing ball control on offense, mixing running plays with short, conservative passes from Levi Lewis. This was on full display in the Cajuns' 24-16 victory against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. 

That pattern will be on display again against Marshall in this New Orleans Bowl resulting in another Under. 

The Cajuns rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 18.2 points a game, while forcing 21 turnovers. Marshall QB Grant Wells threw 12 interceptions in 12 games. Marshall finished the regular season minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways. 

The total is higher than I believe it should be partly because Marshall surrendered 53 points to Western Kentucky in its last game. Western Kentucky, though, is the second-highest scoring team in the country averaging 43.1 points. Before that game, the Thunder Herd had given up an average of 16 points during their past six games. 

Marshall finished 13th nationally in sacks with 38 and has a star linebacker in Abraham Beauplan.

Malik Willis gets all the attention when it comes to Liberty. But the Flames are very strong defensively. They rank fifth in pass defense, 11th in defensive total yards and 30th in scoring defense holding foes to 21.7 points a game. 

Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball effectively. Instead the Eagles rely on QB Ben Bryant and a short passing attack. Bryant is facing a top-notch pass defense here and a tough pass rush playing behind an offensive line that has yielded 38 sacks. 

The Eagles should get their share of sacks, too, since Liberty surrendered 50 sacks. 

Note that this bowl game is being played in Mobile, Ala., and the weather forecast is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with thundershowers and wind in the 5-to-10 mph range. That's a bad break for Willis and a plus for the Under. 

This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. 

Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer.

The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. 

Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. 

Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. 
UTEP was respectable on defense ranking 53rd in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game. But the Miners are well below average offensively ranking 89th in scoring at 25.2 points and 71st in total yards. 

The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. 

Wake Forest is a surprising 10-1. The Demon Deacons are strong favorites here. Wake Forest has been playing strong defense holding its last four opponents to an average of 62 points during regulation.

Charlotte is a great free throw shooting team. The 49ers, though, are a mediocre scoring team ranking 277th averaging 70 points.

This isn't a home game for Charlotte. The site is the Spectrum Center in Uptown, Charlotte. This is the home of the Charlotte Hornets. So neither team is familiar with the court, which is a plus for the Under.

This is my NBA Game of the Week. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

Jackson State is one of the lowest-scoring basketball teams in Division I. Drake, though, averages nearly 76 points per game. Contrasts like this are tough for an oddsmaker to make a total on. I believe they've made this total too low.

The Bulldogs average 81.2 points in five home games. Their offense is much better than their defense. Drake ranks 310th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time the past 57 times Drake has been a home favorite. I'm going to ride that strong trend.

I understand the Nets being favored at home. But they shouldn't be considering their COVID situation.

This is who the Nets will be missing: James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre' Bembry - all starters - along with Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter, James Johnson and Paul Millsap. That leaves the Nets' thin bench with just three rookies.

The Nets are going to encounter an angry 76ers team that is off an embarrassing, 101-96, home loss to the Heat last night. 76ers coach Doc Rivers ripped his team after that game. I'm expecting the 76ers to be fired up. They certainly are capable, having defeated the Warriors just five days ago.

Joel Embiid is expected to play. But I still would like the 76ers even if he isn't considering the drastic situation the Nets are in.

Brooklyn has failed to cover the last six times as a home favorite.

Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday.

Still, I want the Bucks going for me.

The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury.

This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests.

The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points.

There are a lot of unknown here - all of which could be positive for an Under.

Luka Doncic is questionable. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Anthony Davis has missed the last two games, too, because of a knee injury. He's also questionable. The Lakers aren't likely to have Talen Horton-Tucker and Malik Monk. They are in COVID-19 protocol. Those are two plus players for the Over. 
Even if Doncic and Davis should play, I still like the Under. 

The Lakers are playing excellent defense lately holding their last four foes to an average of 99.7 points. Dallas is the No. 6 defensive team in the NBA. The Mavericks' last seven games have all gone Under. The Lakers' offense could be out of sync missing scorers Horton-Tucker and Monk. LA also was unable to practice on Tuesday because of COVID testing. 

This total is too high given the key injuries each team has.

The Suns are going to be without Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton again. Those are Phoenix's two leading scorers. Phoenix is averaging just 102.5 points in its last four games.

The Trail Blazers are without CJ McCollum, their second-leading scorer. Portland is averaging 99 points in its last five games. The Suns rank eighth in scoring defense and are fourth in defensive field goal percentage.

This is the third meeting this season between the two teams so there should be familiarity, which is a plus for defense.

Northwestern State certainly is going to take this in-state non-conference game more seriously than LSU. 

The Tigers are 9-0 and riding high. But they've been a little too sloppy with taking care of the ball to lay this huge of a number. 

The Demons are not good, but they should not be dominated on the boards. They also have better backcourt depth with Carvell Teasett back in the lineup. He played for the first time in the Demons' last game and scored nine points with five assists.

The Wizards won't lack incentive here coming off an embarrassing 25-point home loss to the Jazz this past Saturday. It's a huge game for Washington's first-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. He spent the previous six years as an assistant coach for the Nuggets. So he's extremely knowledgeable about the Nuggets in this non-conference matchup. 

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

The Warriors haven't lost two games in a row all season. They are the best team in the NBA. I look for them to bounce back strong against the Pacers after getting beat by the 76ers on the road two days ago. 

The Pacers have stepped up their game winning three in a row. Those victories were against slumping teams - Wizards, Knicks and Mavericks.

Indiana is three levels below the Warriors. The spread is too short. 

The Packers went into their bye last week after producing 36 points against the Rams. They should be fresh with a strong game plan and with the possible return of their best offensive lineman, David Bakhtiari.

Chicago's defense has been weakened by injuries to several players, including Khalil Mack, and sinking morale. The Bears have surrendered 29 or more points in four of their last six games. Their run defense ranks 23rd. The Bears will have to deal with the Packers' two-headed running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while also having to contend with Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of picking apart Chicago.

The Bears are getting some of their injured offensive players back, including Allen Robinson and Justin Fields, who should be well prepared and have fresh legs having been out the last two games.

Weather shouldn't be a major hindrance with temperatures in the 20's, no snow and wind in the 10-15 mph range.

It didn't show against the Patriots this past Monday night because of the extreme weather conditions, but the Bills are vulnerable defensively against the pass minus their injured star cornerback Tre'Davious White. Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards and passing TD's, is sure to exploit White's replacement, Dane Jackson.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in more than half of its games. The Bills' defense is worse than perceived. Buffalo fattened its defensive numbers by going against a number of mediocre-to-bad QB's. The Bills gave up 41 points to the Colts and 34 to the Titans. Brady is much better than Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. Brady also has a much deeper set of receiving targets than those QB's have.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in seven of their 12 games. Both teams play at a very fast tempo, too. Unlike last week, weather won't be a hindrance for Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense.

Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games.

Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will.

The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points.

Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles.

Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games.

Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved.

Anyway you cut it, the Giants are going to be terrible at QB with a choice of injured Daniel Jones, immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, or fourth-stringer Jake Fromm, who was on Buffalo's practice squad last week behind three other QB's.

The Giants are not in sync with their new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. They have a bad offensive line, a battered wide receiving corps and Saquan Barkley remains unproductive nowhere near his elite status before he suffered a serious knee injury last year.

New York is averaging 14.4 points in its last five games. The Giants' offense looks much better on paper than it really is.

The Chargers are dealing with COVID-19 problems that have struck their two best wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Unlike their offense, the Giants are better defensively than perceived, giving up an average of 16 points during their last six games.

The Texans have one of the all-time worst offenses regardless of who their QB is, Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. Houston ranks last in points, yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans are averaging 10.6 points in their last 10 games.

Seattle's defense has gotten much better. The Seahawks have surrendered 20 or fewer points during regulation in six of their last eight games.

The Seahawks' defense has accomplished this despite a weak offense that doesn't have any semblance of a ground attack. Russell Wilson is having a down year caused in part by a finger injury.

The Texans' defense usually plays hard. Prior to giving up 31 points to the Colts last week, the Texans had allowed an average of 17 points in its past three games.

Note this game is being played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., a neutral court for both of these teams. This is a 1,200-mile trip for Miami and it's a very early start time. These are all pluses for the Under.

So is Fordham being one of the participants. The Rams are a terrible shooting team both from the floor and free throw line despite playing a number of bad defenses. The Rams are defensive-minded and play at a slow tempo.

Miami has been better on offense than defense, but the Hurricanes should be able to clamp down on this poor-shooting foe. The Hurricanes have held two of their last three foes to fewer than 60 points.

No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring.

The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State.

The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list.

Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range.

The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record.

Michigan is good, but was overrated to begin the season.

Minnesota is just the opposite. The Gophers entered the season with no expectations, but are 7-1 winning their first seven games. They hung in against 19th-ranked Michigan State in its Big Ten opener, losing 75-67.

The Gophers split against Michigan last season.

There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. 

The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. 

Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. 

Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. 

This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. 

Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. 

One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted.

This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points.

LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies.

The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off.

Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago.

This is a huge in-state rivalry game. Iowa State is competitive now thanks to T.J. Otzelberger. He's done a fantastic coaching job. Iowa State is 9-0 after being 2-22 last season before Otzeleberger took over.

The Cyclones have passed every test so far this season, including beating Creighton, 64-58, on the road this past Saturday. That halted a 25-game Iowa State road losing streak.

Iowa is good. No doubt. But the Hawkeyes aren't elite as Big Ten losses to Purdue and Illinois show. The Hawkeyes were outrebounded, 52-23, by the Illini. That's a potential red flag.

This spot sets up well for the Spurs. 

Denver is playing its sixth consecutive road game. This also is the Nuggets' fourth road game in six days. They escaped with an overtime victory against the lowly Pelicans last night. The Nuggets are basically playing an eight-man rotation. Their starters were forced to log big minutes against New Orleans last night.
Denver is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 away contests.

The Spurs had returned home to face the Knicks two days ago following a 2-1 West Coast trip. San Antonio had beaten Portland and Golden State before falling to the Suns in a close matchup. They laid an egg against the Knicks. Gregg Popovich should have the Spurs motivated for this revenge matchup especially now that the Spurs have settled in at home. 

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday.

Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA.

The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards.

Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record.

The Grizzlies have won five in a row since their star point guard Ja Morant suffered a knee injury. How are the Grizzlies doing this without their best player? Defense. Memphis has held its last five foes to an average of 90.2 points.

The Mavericks have short revenge for a 97-90 home loss to the Grizzlies from last Saturday. Dallas was without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis in that loss. Both are expected to play here. Dallas is in stop-the-pain mode, too, losers of eight of its last 10.

Doncic is a superstar, but the Mavericks are a defensive-minded team. They rank 25th in scoring, but give up the 12th-fewest points. Dallas has a great history of going Under in an underdog role with the Under cashing 22 of the past 30 times.

I'm looking for another tight defensive battle here.

I like TCU's current form. The Horned Frogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and have cut down on their turnovers committing 10 or fewer during their last two games.

TCU has held six of its seven opponents to fewer than 65 points.

Utah isn't playing well. The Utes have failed to cover in their last three games as they continue to tinker with their rotation. They are averaging 68.6 points during their past five games.

I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy.

The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain.

The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19.

Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka.

Surprised the Knicks opened a road favorite against the Spurs? Don't be. Even though the Knicks are 1-4 in their last five games and have a losing record, the oddsmaker knows what he is doing.

New York has gone against the Nuggets, Bulls, Nets, Hawks and Suns during its last five games. This is a step down in class and a stop-the-pain game for the Knicks. It's a good thing the Knicks are leaving New York after consecutive home losses. They are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road contests.

The Knicks catch the Spurs returning home having yet to host a game this month. The Spurs are in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest after a hard-fought 108-104 road loss to the Suns last night. New York, on the other hand, had been idle the previous two days.

The Spurs were riding a season-best four-game win streak until losing to the Suns. So their mental approach may be down. Same perhaps with their focus level having not been home since late November.

These are two excellent defenses. The total is this high because Texas Tech ranks 12th in the nation in scoring at 85.4. That is misleading, though, because the Red Raiders have played bad defenses, none of which ranked in the top 75 defensive-wise. Now they take on Tennessee, which allows just 62 points a game and ranks in the top five in defensive efficiency just like last season.

The Red Raiders rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, too. This game is part of the Jimmy V. Classic tournament held at Madison Square Garden, which is a notorious venue to college players for its tough scoring backdrop.

Not only do the Patriots and Bills have the two best statistical defenses in the NFL, but there is a strong weather factor, too. Throw in this being a huge division game with two top-notch defensive coaches and you have all the right ingredients for an Under. 

New England is first in scoring defense holding foes to 15.8 points a game. Buffalo is next giving up 16.5 points. The Bills rank No. 1 in total defense. 
The weather forecast is frightful - rain, gusty winds in the 20-40 mph range and cold weather. In other words, Buffalo in December. 

Mac Jones hasn't experienced this type of weather. Bill Belichick is sure to have a sound defensive game plan for Josh Allen, who isn't having the big year he had last season. The Patriots are second in takeaways. 

No Ja Morant, no problem for the Grizzlies. They are 4-0 since losing their star guard. I don't see that continuing, though, starting with this matchup.

The Heat are 1-3 in their last four games. They were without superstar Jimmy Butler for all of their games. Butler is expected back from a tailbone injury for this game. That should make a huge difference.

Worst case scenario is if Butler has to miss this game. Still, I would back the Heat even if Butler is out banking on Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson.

Miami has played better at home going 6-3. This is the Grizzlies' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. Morant isn't the only Memphis player out. Underrated Kyle Anderson also is out with a back injury.

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games.

D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game.

Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games.

The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under.

It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries.

Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears.

Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving.

The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks.

When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. 

The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. 

The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston. 

First off, weather factors here. It's going to be cold with a 70 percent chance of snow.

Both teams are in good defensive form, too. 

Hamilton is the No. 2 defensive team in the CFL giving up 17.4 points a game. The Tiger-Cats opened the playoffs with a 23-12 win against Montreal last week. Hamilton held Montreal's stud running back William Stanback to 46 yards on 16 carries. 

Toronto has held its last three opponents to an average of 15 points. Defensive guru Chris Jones was added to the Argos this season as a consultant. He could make a difference here with a strong defensive game plan.

The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory.

The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. 
Paul George rolled his ankle against the Lakers. So he may be out. He's LA's best player with Kawhi Leonard sidelined. The Clippers haven't been consistent all season adjusting to life without Leonard. 

The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. 

This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. 

It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives.
Georgia is 12-0. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country. No debate there. 

The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. 

Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. 

I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. 

I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time.

 Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game. 
The Crimson Tide surrender fewer than 20 points per game. They rank No. 3 in run defense and seventh in total defense. Georgia relies on its ground attack. The Bulldogs rank 60th in passing. 

UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers.

Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19.

It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog.

I don't think the oddsmaker quite realizes what an intense in-state rivalry this matchup is because this total is much higher than what I believe it should be.

Wisconsin has a long tradition of being a great defensive team. That's true again so far this season. The Badgers rank 11th defensively holding opponents to 56.7 points a game.

Shaka Smart is off to a great start in his first season as coach of Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 7-1. They've held their past two foes to an average of 60 points. The Badgers don't figure to score much from beyond the arc ranking 283rd in 3-point shooting at 30.1 percent. Marquette has struggled, too, with its long-range shooting ranking 218th in 3-point shooting.

These teams are going to have to work hard to get clean shots. I made this total 10 points lower than what the oddsmaker did. So I'm on the Under.

Both teams have started the season slow. But I liked what I saw from the Lakers during the second half of their 117-92 win against the Kings this past Tuesday night. LA won that game without LeBron James, who is expected to play here. The Lakers are showing signs of getting better going 3-1 in their last four games. Their bench looked good against the Kings.

I'm not seeing this type of improvement from the Clippers. They are 2-6 in their last eight games, including losing their last three. The Clippers have dropped down in class without injured Kawhi Leonard. The Lakers have a huge superstar edge now on the Clippers with James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.

I want Western Kentucky and QB Bailey Zappe going for me in this Conference USA title game. The Hilltoppers have revenge for a 52-46 loss earlier this season to Texas San Antonio and have played better than the Roadrunners down the stretch.

The Hilltoppers have won seven in a row going 6-1 ATS. The Roadrunners have failed to cover in their last three games and lost outright to underdog North Texas in their last game. 

Western Kentucky is the No. 1 passing team in the nation thanks to Bailey Zappe, who has thrown for 52 TD passes and nearly 5,000 yards in 12 games. The Hilltoppers rank second in the country in scoring and yards.

The Roadrunners aren't nearly that dynamic. Defensively they are better at stopping the run. They rank 63rd in pass defense. 

Rutgers has never won during its five all-time road games against Illinois. Don't expect that string to be broken here.

Illinois has won nine straight home contests, including going 4-0 this season. All of the Illini's home wins have come by at least nine points, including an impressive 10-point victory against Notre Dame in their last game this past Monday.

The Illini showed a lot of team cohesion in that victory. I don't believe Rutgers can stay within single digits of Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have a tough matchup dealing with Illini center Kofi Cockburn, who is in the argument for best player in the nation.

Phoenix is having a great year. But this is a flat spot for the Suns sandwiched around games against Golden State. The Suns returned home from a four-game road trip and defeated the Warriors this past Tuesday.

Following this game, the Suns travel to Golden State for a rematch against the Warriors on Friday. That's the game they are pointing to.

The Suns won't have their leading scorer, Devin Booker. He suffered a hamstring injury and will be out several games.

The Pistons have lost seven in a row. They are a young team and they play hard. Detroit has covered four of its last six. The Pistons often are undervalued. That's the case here given that the Suns will be minus Booker and are in a letdown/lookahead spot.

A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. 

Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. 

The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. 
The Vikings are in transition with a new coach, Jase Coburn, and only one returning starter from last season. The Vikings are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country ranking 356h. 

Miami ranks 340th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.1 percent. The Hurricanes are going to have problems going against Penn State's physical defense especially if they can't hit from long range to loosen that pressure.

Penn State doesn't score that much - ranking 250th - because the Nittany Lions like to milk the clock. That's been a noticeable trademark of new coach Micah Shrewsberry. Only six teams play at a slower tempo than Penn State.

The Nittany Lions held LSU to 58 points in regulation during their last game. That was 23 points under the Tigers' season scoring average.

Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. 

The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots.

The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number.

But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. 

Mississippi should be able to take advantage of a bad Rider defense to post a big point total here. If you discount a 50-point performance against Boise State, the Rebels are averaging 78.8 points in their other five games. 

Rider ranks 235th in scoring defense and 239th in 3-point defense. The Broncs also are a very poor defensive rebounding team. 

The Broncs are a better offensive team than they showed, though, in their last game a 65-58 road loss to South Carolina. The Broncos made just 36.8 percent of their field goals in that game. They have three returning starters and four Division I transfers and are expected to contend in the MAAC.  

I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit.

The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far.

The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is.

I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price.

Davidson is a big scoring team. But I'm not sold that the Wildcats should be road favorites here against an in-state rival that has the capability to frustrate them.

This is Davidson's first true road game. The Wildcats win with offense. Their defense isn't that good. Charlotte plays at a slow pace and doesn't commit many turnovers. That's going to limit Davidson's opportunities.

The Clippers have short revenge for a 94-81 road loss suffered to the Pelicans 10 days ago. The Clippers also have motivation after playing poorly on Sunday at home in a 105-90 home loss to the Warriors.

LA is usually very good in these bounce back situations. The Clippers played during the day on Sunday so there is less of a fatigue factor. They step down in class drawing the Pelicans. New Orleans still won't have Zion Williamson and holds a worse fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days.

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road contests.

The Clippers are 17-6 ATS the past 23 times following a loss of more than 10 points.

LA has the long range shooters to take advantage of the Pelicans' 27th-ranked 3-point defense. The Clippers also won't be seeing the nightmare of Stephen Curry hitting from all over the court. New Orleans ranks 27th in scoring.

I didn't see enough out of Notre Dame in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year, to believe the Irish can keep within this point spread at Illinois.

The Irish went 1-2 in the tournament beating Chaminade, but losing to St. Mary's and Texas A&M. Notre Dame had trouble with the Aggies' full court pressure in the second half. The Irish have only broken the 70-point barrier once in five games this season.

Illinois is getting outstanding play from its superstar 7-foot center Kofi Cockburn and from Alfonso Plummer. They'll be too much for Notre Dame.

In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line.

Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games.

The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington.

Expect a lot of intensity in this one. It was just a week ago that Isaiah Stewart took after LeBron James after James struck Stewart in the face with a blow that was or was not accidental. It caused a fracas and resulted in short suspensions for both players.

The Lakers won that game, 121-116, in Detroit. The Lakers shot 49 percent from the floor, well above their season 44 percent mark. The Pistons hit 44 percent of their field goals while their season shooting percentage is 40.5 percent. There were a combined 48 free throws taken.

I don't expect the teams to shoot nearly that well. Since that loss to the Lakers, the Pistons have averaged 93.6 points in their last three games. Detroit ranks last in many of the major offensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage.

The Lakers aren't going to lack motivation after blowing a 13-point fourth quarter lead on Friday in a 141-137 triple overtime loss to the Kings. LA is feeling embarrassed about a 10-11 record.

The Pistons know they don't have the scorers to keep up with the Lakers so expect a slow tempo, methodical game from them.

The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. 

So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. 

Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. 

The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. 

Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. 

Every point matters in this playoff matchup. So I'm going with the underdog Stampeders, who have won and covered their last three. Calgary also defeated Saskatchewan two of three during the regular season with all of the games being close. The Stampeders held the Roughriders to an average of 18.6 points in those three games. 

The Stampeders are 23-8 the past 31 times as a road 'dog. They've covered their last four games going 5-2 in away games this season. Calgary also has covered in five of its last six visits to Saskatchewan. 

Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has found a welcomed target with Reggie Begelton returning to Calgary from the NFL. He caught seven passes for 119 yards in his return two weeks ago. I'm counting on Mitchell's veteran savvy and Calgary's elite defense. The Stampeders allowed the second-fewest TD's in the CFL while surrendering only 18.8 points a game. Tre Roberson gives the Stampeders an elite cornerback.

The Roughriders have a strong defensive front, but permit a league-worst 273.6 passing yards per game. Opponents scored 31 TD's against the Roughriders, which tied for the most in the league.

The Rams have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Packers eliminated them in the playoffs, 32-18, last January.

If you recall the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp for that game and Aaron Donald was just a shell of himself suffering from broken ribs. Oh yeah, the Rams QB back then was Jared Goff.

This time around Kupp and Donald are at full strength. The Rams' QB situation is immeasurably improved with Matthew Stafford instead of Goff. The Rams have had two weeks, too, to rest and prepare. This should help newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr. get up to speed in Sean McVay's offense.

The Packers are minus two of their three best defensive players with cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za'Darius Smith out. Emerging pass rusher Rashan Gary also isn't likely to play. The Vikings exposed the overachieving Packers defense scoring 34 points on them last week. LA has permitted only 15 sacks. I see Stafford having ample time to pick apart Green Bay's secondary.

Donald is going to cause havoc to the Packers' offensive line, which is missing their two best linemen with David Bakhitari and Elgton Jenkins out. The Packers also are without their starting center, Josh Myers. Right now the Packers' left tackle is third-stringer Yosh Nijman.

Special teams continue to plague the Packers, too. Mason Crosby could be at the end of the line having missed eight of his last 14 field goal attempts.

The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions.

The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up.

Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree.

Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching.

The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation.

Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points.

The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. 

Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009.

Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. 

Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span.