Granted, Jake Arrieta is the hottest pitcher in baseball. But the Pirates are home and have their own ace going, Gerrit Cole. 
The Pirates are 8-1 against the Cubs with Cole on the mound. They are 14-2 in Coles' last 16 home starts versus opponents with a winning record. Pittsburgh also is 23-5 in Cole's last 28 starts at PNC Park. 
Cole has allowed just six runs to the Cubs this season in four starts.
The Pirates are familiar with Arrieta having faced him five times this year, twice during the last two weeks of the season. The Pirates have postseason experience. The Cubs don't.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Arrieta not pitching as well as he has since he's already exceeded his career high in innings this season by 73 2/3 innings. 
Home field and bullpen have to be factored, too. Pittsburgh went 53-28 at PNC Park. The Pirates' bullpen is much better than Chicago's both ERA and OPS-wise. 

The Astros have a rare combination of power and speed. Houston led the American League in stolen bases and finished No. 2 in the majors in homers. 
Houston enters this matchup having won six of its last eight games while averaging 7.1 runs during this span. 
The Yankees, on the other hand, come into this do-or-die matchup having lost six of their last seven while averaging 3.2 runs during this time frame and hitting .161 with runners in scoring position. 
I like the Astros' lineup more than New York's. The Yankees rely on Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Alex Rodriguez. But all three key cogs are mired in slumps. Ellsbury is batting only .220 since the All-Star break. Gardner is batting .206 since then and Rodriguez is batting .186 since Aug. 7. His lack of clutch performances in previous postseason games are well documented. 
The lack of production from these three is a key factor why the Yankees went 30-33 in their last 63 games. 
The pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel versus Masahiro Tanaka also favors Houston. The southpaw Keuchel is a Cy Young candidate. He was the only 20-game winner in the AL and has a 2.48 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.78 during his last three starts, all victories.
The Yankees have had trouble with southpaws all season and were particularly feeble against Keuchel in two starts this season. Keuchel shut out New York both times striking out a combined 21 during the two outings. The Yankees batted .188 versus Keuchel with just one extra base hit. 
Tanaka faced Houston once this season and gave up six runs in five innings during a 9-6 road loss. Keuchel is going on short rest - just three days. However, Tanaka has started just once in the last 17 days so he figures to be rusty. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Given how crisp their offense has been, the Cardinals can nearly cover this total themselves.
Arizona leads the NFL in scoring at 42 points per game. Carson Palmer has thrown nine touchdown passes. Only Aaron Rodgers has thrown more this season. Thanks to offensive guru Bruce Arians, Palmer is playing at his highest level. 
The Rams have an excellent pass rush, but they are not a dominant defense. 
St. Louis has enough offense to put up its share of points helping this total go over. The Cardinals don't have a dominant defense either. They've been fortunate to play the Saints, Bears and 49ers - all of whom have quarterbacks that have played sub-par. 
The Rams offense will be helped by an improved ground attack that should be better with Todd Gurley playing in his second game. Arizona's defense misses astute defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, now the Jets head coach. 

Granted San Diego has a big edge at the skill positions. But the Browns have five Pro Bowl players combined in their offensive line and secondary. 
Philip Rivers can't do much when he's not adequately protected, nor can the Chargers take advantage of Cleveland's vulnerable run defense when their offensive line is battered by injuries.
Left guard Orlando Franklin already has been ruled out for San Diego. The Chargers had three other offensive line starters who didn't practice Friday and may not play either. They also could be down to their third-string tight end as Antonio Gates remains under suspension and Ladarius Green is questionable. 
The Browns aren't flashy, but quietly they are 5-0 ATS when taking five or more points under Mike Pettine. They also have the most dangerous player on the field in big-play guy Travis Benjamin, who already has five all-purpose touchdowns. 
Veteran Josh McCown should have time to pick his spots. The Chargers only have one sack on the season. 
The Chargers have been serious money-burners failing to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. They are just 1-5 during their last six home games. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

Oregon is down this season without Marcus Mariota, but do you believe Colorado can upset the Ducks? I sure don't. 
The Buffaloes, as we know, don't win Pac-12 games having lost 12 straight league contests. They draw an angry Ducks team fresh off a humiliating 62-20 pounding by Utah last week. 
Utah is better than advertised and Oregon still is several tiers above Colorado. I'm fine with whomever the Ducks use at quarterback, Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. The Buffs still have to deal with running back Royce Freeman, one of the best sophomores in the country with 450 yards rushing and 23 career rushing touchdowns. 
Oregon has beaten Colorado each of the past five seasons - and none of the games have been close. The Ducks won by 34 points last season and by 41 two years ago. 
Colorado is slightly improved and Oregon is down from a year ago, but the gap still remains at double-digits plus Oregon is going to be highly motivated to get on track with a lopsided victory. 

Clemson led the nation in total defense last year and the Tigers have a top 10 defense again this season. The Tigers have held three opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense, including Louisville. Foes have converted less than 20 percent of the time against Clemson on third down. And remember Notre Dame is without its best running back and starting quarterback. This will be Notre Dame sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer's first road start. 

Clemson also has lost key offensive starters, including their top receiver, and starting center who is not expected to play. Pass protection has been a problem for Clemson. The Tigers don't have an attack mentality - more of a we'll take what the defense gives approach which is good for under players. 

Notre Dame has a top 40 defense that held Texas to three points and Georgia Tech to 22 points. 

Another key here is weather. Heavy rain and wind are expected. That's going to keep the game plans conservative.  

These teams combined for 119 points last season when Cal nipped Washington State, 60-59. 
While I don't expect that many points this season, I do believe these teams will combine for more than 70 with a quarterback matchup of Luke Falk versus Jared Goff.
The Cougars' Falk has thrown for the most passing yards in the Pac-12 while Goff has passed for 1,240 yards and 11 touchdowns. Goff torched Washington State last year for 527 yards and five touchdowns - and that was in Pullman. 
Cal also is expected to get their best running back this week, Daniel Lasco. He's missed the last two games with a hip injury. 

Cal just nipped Washington State by one point last season when the Cougars missed an easy field goal. I believe the Cougars can hang with the Golden Bears again.
Washington State has one of the best quarterbacks on the West Coast in Luke Falk. He has a pair of excellent receivers. The Cougars hung 59 points and 812 yards on Cal last season. 
Washington State has improved its secondary and has a pair of good linebackers. 
This also is terrible spot for Cal. The Golden Bears are off big road victories against Texas and Washington. Up next after this game for Cal is a road matchup against Utah. It's going to be easy for Cal to take Washington State, a perennial bottom feeder in the Pac-12, for granted. 
Cal also has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in 17 of its last 23 home contests. 

Consecutive SEC losses to LSU and Mississippi State have left Auburn in an angry mood. Look for the Tigers to vent their frustrations on visiting San Jose State. This is a kill spot for the Tigers, who are stepping way down in class. 

It's not a secret that Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is seeking far better offensive production. That should come this week with Sean White getting more comfortable at quarterback and going against a much easier defense. San Jose State has failed to cover in its last six road games. 
The Spartans are making the long trip from the West Coast just for a fat paycheck. They don't figure to be competitive. The Spartans were blasted by Auburn, 59-13, last season. The line on that game was Auburn minus 33. Now we have a two-touchdown adjustment. It's too much especially considering the situation.
Not only is Auburn in a kill spot, but San Jose State is in a flat spot having just beat fellow Mountain West Conference rival Fresno State last week. The Spartans go back to Mountain West action next week playing UNLV. 
There also is a fatigue factor working against the Spartans as this is their third road game in four weeks.They didn't look good in road defeats to Air Force and Oregon State during this span. The Spartans' best player is running back Tyler Ervin. He rushed 42 times last week. There's no reason for the Spartans to overwork him in this non-league game especially if they fall far behind as anticipated. 

The Angels are in must-win mode trailing Houston by one game for a wild-card berth. Texas is in letdown mode after clinching a playoff spot with a 5-3 victory over Anaheim in this series opener. 

The Rangers capture the AL West Division with just one more victory during their last three games, or if Houston should lose any of its three remaining games on the road against Arizona. So the Rangers are in a celebratory mood after failing to make the postseason during the past two seasons. They know they're all but officially division champs. 

The Angels have won seven of their last nine games. They have owned the Rangers when playing in Arlington winning 14 of their past 17 road contests (82 percent) versus Texas. 

Three-time All-Star Jered Weaver is pitching for the Angels. He's 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA in his last five starts against the Rangers. Look for the savvy veteran Weaver to step up and pitch an effective game. 

Texas is going with the much younger Martin Perez, who has a 4.77 ERA on the season and had an inconsistent September going 1-3 with a 4.18 in five starts. 

The Rangers are 6-13 the last 19 times Perez has gone against an opponent with a winning record. I trust Weaver and the motivated Angels against a young inconsistent Perez and a Rangers squad that has a bad home history against the Angels and is in a letdown situation. 

Take away Ben Roethlisberger and the Ravens are the better team. Much of the disadvantage of being the road team on a Thursday game is negated by the Ravens knowing the Steelers better than any team from their long-standing division rivalry and the short travel distance involved.
Still, I respect the rivalry aspect of this matchup. These teams have played a lot of games through the years that were determined by exactly three points. So with respect to that, I believe the best approach is to lay higher juice and take Baltimore on the money line - to win straight-up without laying any points.
The Ravens are in desperate straits at 0-3. Their defense is down this season, but it still is better than Pittsburgh's. The Steelers had a supreme gutty effort against the Rams last week, but that took tremendous effort and emotion. This short week hurts them. It also cuts down on the prep time for Michael Vick, who never was a quick study and now is so far past his prime that he looks finished. 
The Steelers are going to rely heavily on Le'Veon Bell. The Ravens know this. They haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games. They'll be stacking the line daring the washed-up Vick to beat them. 
Joe Flacco is going to produce points. The Steelers have given up two or more touchdown passes in 11 of their last 13 games. The only quarterbacks not to throw multiple touchdown passes against the Steelers during this span were Nick Foles and Alex Smith. 

The Cubs have veteran Jason Hammel pitching against rookie John Lamb, who is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA.
But there is far more to liking the Cubs in this one than just the starting pitching matchup. It's so much that this game is an action play for me regardless of who is pitching. I just want the Cubs over the Reds.
Chicago is 41-18 in its last 59 games, still motivated to try to get home field for a wild-card playoff game. The Cubs have won four in a row. 
Cincinnati is more dead than Jimmy Hoffa. The Reds have lost 11 in a row and 22 of their past 28 home games. They are likely to be without their two most dangerous hitters, Todd Frazier and Joey Votto. Both are hurt.
The Reds are just playing the string out. They have lost their last six games by an average of six runs. 

The Cubs aren't conceding anything to the Pirates in the playoff picture so motivation is there for Chicago.
The Reds, on the other hand, can't wait for the season to end. Cincinnati is staggering to the finish line having lost its last 10 games. The games haven't been close either. The Reds have dropped their last five games by a combined 29 runs. 
Going back to mid-August, the Reds have lost 32 of 44 games. By contrast, the Cubs are 40-18 in their last 58 games. 
The news got worse for Cincinnati last night when Todd Frazier strained his right Achilles. Frazier leads the Reds in homers and was one of their few bright spots. His loss just adds to Cincinnati's low morale. 
Southpaw Jon Lester, who pitches his best late in the season, is on the mound for Chicago. Lester has a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts. He's pitched better on the road than at home with a 3.12 away ERA. 
The Reds are 2-10 in their last 12 games against a lefty starter. They also haven't been competitive at home going 6-21 in their last 27 games at Great American Ball Park, 2-7 during their past nine home games. 
Cincinnati starter Anthony DeSclafani may have hit the wall. He's 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA in his last two starts. He gave up seven runs in 6 1/3 innings this past Friday in a 12-5 defeat to the Mets. 

The Astros are trying to hold off the Angels and Twins in the wild-card standings. In other words, there is pressure on Houston. The young Astros are not used to being in this type of situation. It's a new experience. The pressure really hits them when they're on the road - like they are now against Seattle. 
Houston has dropped 20 of its last 28 road games. That's the second-worst road mark since the All-Star break. Long-term, Houston is 14-39 during its past 53 away matchups.
The Astros are a team built on power so playing at Safeco Field, one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors, is a major negative for them. 
Seattle is pitching lefty Roenis Elias, who is 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA in five outings since coming up from Triple A. He's auditioning for a spot on Seattle's starting staff. 
Houston has lost eight of the last 11 times when going against a southpaw. 
The Astros are sending rookie Lance McCullers to the mound. Houston is 0-5 in McCullers' last five starts. McCullers pitched extremely well when he first came up to the big leagues, but has been hit harder during his second time around the league. He has a 4.70 ERA in his last seven starts. 
McCullers hasn't pitched nearly as well on the road either. His home ERA is 1.86 compared to 4.88 on the road. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

None of the last six games in this series have gone over the total. I see that trend continuing here. 
The Bills have a top-four defense. The Dolphins lack dynamic players at the skill positions and their best offensive lineman, left tackle Branden Albert, isn't likely to play due to a hamstring injury. Tailback Lamar Miller and tight end Jordan Cameron are banged-up, too, for Miami but I expect them to play. 
Buffalo led the NFL in sacks a year ago. Their defense is just as strong this season. The Bills defense is looking for redemption, too, after getting buried at home last week by the high-scoring Patriots. Miami is averaging 10.6 points its last three games against Buffalo.
Look for the Dolphins to show well defensively, too. Bill Belichick showed the blueprint on how to stop Tyrod Taylor and that's keep him in the pocket. This is Taylor's first road start in the NFL. The Dolphins' run defense should improve each game as Ndamukong Suh and his new teammates get more comfortable with each other. 

This is my strongest totals recommendation of the season so far. Indy's offensive struggles were well documented this past Monday night in clear view of a national audience - and the oddsmaker. 
That's why I believe this over/under is short. The Colts' offense is much better than it has shown. The big thing to keep in mind is the Colts opened on the road in bad weather conditions at Buffalo. Then they faced the Jets. Those are two elite defenses. I would rank both Buffalo and the Jets as top-four defenses.
Now the Colts drop way down in class to face Tennessee, a team they averaged 34 points against last season. Andrew Luck has better weapons and more depth at wide receiver this season. The Titans lack the talent and personnel to put heat on Luck like the Bills and Jets did. 
I have no doubt the Colts are going to put up their share of points. The matchup also sets up well for the Titans' offense, which is much improved with potential franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota. He's impressed me with his accuracy and poise. The Titans have underrated receiving weapons and Dexter McCluster provided an unexpected upgrade to Tennessee's ground game last week.
The Colts' defense isn't strong to start with and it's further weakened by a cluster injury problem in the secondary. 
Given the caliber and state of Indy's battered defense, Mariota can hang with Luck in what should be a shootout. 

The Colts are out of the gates slow. But keep in mind they faced two of what I consider to be the top four defenses in football the Bills on the road and Jets where they suffered a turnover festival.
Do you really see Indy opening 0-3? I sure don't. The Colts are stepping way down in class against the Titans, a team they swept last season winning by an average of 20.5 points. The Colts have won the past seven in this series going 6-0-1 ATS.
The Titans defense was weak last season and has yet to face a good offense this season going against the Buccaneers and Browns. Even so the Titans surrendered two long touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel before the Browns went conservative. If Manziel can do that against the Titans, it's scary to think of what Luck can do against the Titans. 
The Colts have injuries in their secondary, but they do have their top cornerback, Vontae Davis, healthy enough to play. This is a kill spot for the Colts. 

This total is too high. It would make more sense if the Cowboys had anybody worthy at the skill positions and this was the Falcons defense of a year ago. 
Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn, who was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator last season. 
The Cowboys are minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Without those two, the Cowboys' skill position players rank with the Arian Foster-less Texans and Browns as having the worst skill position set. 
Brandon Weeden is the worst starting quarterback going in Week 3 - and that's saying a lot with Jimmy Clausen and Luke McCown also drawing starts. Weeden is turnover prone, locks into one receiver and throws a high number of simple checkdown passes that gain little yardage.
The Cowboys do have a solid offensive line. However, their running backs are below average. Tempo is very important when playing a total. I see the Cowboys playing at an extremely slow pace and very conservatively. Their goal is to control clock keeping the ball away from dangerous Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. 
Ryan doesn't play as well outside of Georgia Dome. The Falcons also are without their best running back, Tevin Coleman. 

Arizona has covered five of the past six times it has hosted UCLA. Now it's the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bruins straight-up.
It's a triple revenge spot for Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez in his fourth season with the Wildcats. Arizona has knocked off six ranked foes during Rodriguez's tenure and is 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog. 
The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and their defense gets a huge lift with the expected return of linebacker Scooby Wright, last year's Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. He had missed the last two games because of a knee injury. 
The jury still is out on UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw three interceptions last week. This is his first Pac-12 road start. 
Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon has been much more steady with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Rosen's 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Solomon has completed better than 68 percent of his throws. He can rely on Nick Wilson, one of the best running backs in the conference, and a deep crop of receivers. 
The Wildcats rank among the top seven teams in the country in points, yards and rushing. They did pad their statistics by burying Northern Arizona last week, but were able to provide some rest to the their starters in the 64-point victory. So they should be fresh for this Pac-12 opener. 
The timing is right, too, for the Wildcats as they catch UCLA without three of its defensive starters, including star linebacker Myles Jack. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice this week. 

I'm going to fade the early money that has come on Mississippi State. The line has gotten low enough to back Auburn on the money line. I see the Tigers bouncing back strong at home in this huge revenge game.
The Bulldogs defeated Auburn, 38-23, last year in Starkville. The Bulldogs, though, just outgained the Tigers by 28 yards. 
People are afraid to back Auburn because the Tigers have not looked good so far, are off a 24-point road loss to LSU and are switching quarterbacks. 
But home field, stepping down in class and turning to a better quarterback are all pluses for Auburn in this matchup. 
Auburn has won 15 of its 16 home games in the two plus seasons Gus Malzahn has been coach. This includes a victory against LSU last year and wins over Mississippi State and Alabama two seasons ago when they last hosted those teams. Auburn's lone home loss under Malzahn was against Texas A&M and the Tigers outgained the Aggies by 129 yards. 
Malzahn has made a quarterback change going from ineffective Jeremy Johnson to highly-touted Sean White, a consensus top 10 recruit two years ago.  
Mississippi State has failed to cover in four of its last five road games. The Bulldogs aren't as tough on defense as a couple of teams Auburn already has played - LSU and Louisville. Mississippi State lost 12 starters from a year, including its top defensive lineman and linebacker. Their inexperienced offensive line is going to be up against a tough crowd at Jordan Hare Stadium. 

This is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a gutty upset beating 14th-ranked Georgia Tech at home this past Saturday. The Irish have a much bigger game on deck playing at Clemson next week.
So the Irish aren't going to be too concerned about lowly UMasss. The Minutemen, though, are dangerous under Mark Whipple. They are dangerous on offense. They nearly beat Temple losing 25-23 last week. The unbeaten Owls could be the best team in the American Athletic Conference. 
UMass has covered seven of its last 10. 
Notre Dame has lost six players. The Irish are down their quarterback, Malik Zaire, their leader rusher from a year ago, Tarean Folston, and safety Drue Tranquill.
These injuries have left the Irish inexperienced at quarterback and thin in the secondary. UMass is a throwing team ranking 19th in passing yards. 
Notre Dame has covered only once the past six times it has played a foe with a losing record. 

Expect Ohio State to be much sharper offensively and to not be in a generous mood after a flat performance last week against Northern Illinois. Urban Meyer has been known to run up a score and he could here. 
Ohio State star running back Ezekiel Elliott has put together eight straight 100-yard rushing games. He's been outstanding again this season, but quarterbacks Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett have been up-and-down. Meyer is really pushing them this week. 
Western Michigan can score, with a high octane passing attack, but the Broncos have surrendered 214 points in their last five games. 

Kent State isn't very good offensively. The Golden Flashes have scored 10 points in two games versus FBS opponents. Kent State is much stronger defensively. The Golden Flashes have especially showed defensive improvement the past two weeks. Kent State has nine sacks and seven takeaways already this year. 
Kent State quarterback Colin Reardon has trouble when stepping up in class and he's facing a very good and athletic Marshall secondary. 
Marshall can get frustrated in its passing game by Kent State. the Thundering Herd are inexperienced at quarterback and wide receiver. I expect them to play it conservative and feature a lot of running from bowling ball Devon Johnson. That's going to eat clock and given Kent State's offensive problems against quick, athletic defenses should provide an under. 

Oklahoma State is going to get its share of big points with Mason Rudolph and its high-scoring attack. The Cowboys rank in the top 24 in points averaging 41.7 per game and in yards at 509 a game. Rudolph and David Glidden are one of the most feared combinations in the nation with Glidden catching three of Rudolph's five TD passes while coming up with six catches of 20 or more yards. 
Oklahoma State has gone over the total in 20 of its last 28 September games. 
Texas should be able to keep up now that the Longhorns have found their big-play quarterback in Jerrod Heard. Since an opening week loss to Notre Dame, the Longhorns are averaging 43 points and 463.5 yards against Rice and California. 
Texas always had the skill position athletes. The Longhorns just needed to find the right quarterback.

It's hangover time for the Royals. Kansas City clinched its first division championship since 1985 last night beating the Mariners. So the Royals can be excused if they don't have their full focus for this matchup against the Indians.
Cleveland won't have any letdown concerns. The Indians still are holding out wild-card hopes. Every game is must win for them. They have a strong pitching edge with a hot Carlos Carrasco facing a cold Edinson Volquez. 
Carrasco hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during seven of his last eight starts. He has been tremendous on the road going 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 14 away outings. Foes are batting only .191 against him when he pitches on the road. Cleveland is 7-2 in Carrasco's last nine roads. 
The Indians have won the past five times Carrasco has faced the Royals in Kansas City. The Indians also have a history of starting fast having gone 12-2 during the last 14 games in the opener of a new series. It's an added plus if outfielder Michael Brantley is able to play for Cleveland. He's been out the last two games with a shoulder injury, but is expected back for this series. 
Volquez has been up and down and right now he's down with a 6.43 ERA in his last four starts. The Royals' bullpen isn't so deep anymore with closer Greg Holland out for the season with an elbow injury. 

Bartolo Colon is 42. He's less than six-feet tall yet weighs close to 290 pounds. His ERA is 4.15 and he has a history of fading as the long baseball season enters the late stages. The Braves already have seen Colon four times this year. They are not going to be fooled. 
The Braves are starting rookie right-hander Williams Perez, who has a 5.16 ERA. He's pitched better lately, but three of his last four starts have come against the Phillies twice and Marlins. The Phillies and Marlins rank among the three lowest scoring teams in baseball. 
Against the Mets this season, Perez has yielded seven runs in 12 innings giving up 13 hits and five walks. The over has cashed 74 percent of the past 34 times the Mets have faced a righty. 
Paul Schrieber is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 54 percent of the time he's been the home plate ump during the past two seasons. 

The Giants are decimated by injuries, have a cold pitcher going and are facing San Diego's best starter. Add it up and it should spell a Padres victory. 
Tyson Ross is better than his 10-10 record. He's an All-Star pitcher who hasn't gotten much run support this season. Ross is in much better form than San Francisco's scheduled starter, Chris Heston.
Ross has a 1.73 ERA in his last four starts. His ERA in seven home starts since the All-Star break is 2.78. 
Heston is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA in his last eight starts. San Francisco has lost during Heston's past seven outings. 
The Giants have managed only five victories during their past 21 road games. 
The Padres are healthy while the Giants are minus Joe Panik and Brandon Belt along with three of their top four outfielders. Sidelined are Hunter Pence, Gregor Blanco and Norichika Aoki. 

The Colts really struggled in Week 1 at Buffalo. But that was due to a combination of going against a strong Bills defense on the road and dealing with unfamiliar cold, windy weather conditions. 
The Colts' offense will look a lot better back at home in their normal setting on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts were out of sync opening week, passing way too much and losing their franchise receiver, T.Y. Hilton, during the game.
Hilton practiced Saturday and should be a go. Andrew Luck has a loaded hand with the additions of Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and rookie Phillip Dorsett joining Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Luck also has a pair of good pass-catching tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, to attack the Jets.
Few teams can match Indy's skill position depth. The Jets' defense is going to undergo some culture shock going from playing the Browns opening week at home to now facing the high-powered Colts on the road. Further hurting the Jets is that Antonio Cromartie, a versatile and very good cornerback, isn't likely to play after suffering a knee injury against Cleveland. 
The Jets' offense is better than perceived. Ryan Fitzpatrick was coached up at Buffalo by Chan Gailey, who is the Jets' offensive coordinator. Fitzpatrick is at his best when he has weapons around him and doesn't have to overdo things. 
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker provide Fitzpatrick with an above average receiving duo. Chris Ivory is expected to have a big year and he didn't disappoint in Week 1. Ivory should play despite getting nicked up in practice during the week. He is one of my fantasy football starters this week. That's how much confidence I have in him. 
The Colts' defense gave up 10.3 yards per pass to Tyrod Taylor, who was making his NFL starting debut, last week and 6.2 yards per run to Buffalo. The Bills don't have a big-play offense, yet they still produced seven plays of 20 or more yards against the Colts. 
Indy does not have a defense to match its offense. The Colts are vulnerable through the air especially in this matchup because their No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks - Greg Toler and Darius Butler - are both out. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

The Eagles finally got their offense in gear during the second half against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they had dug themselves into too big of a hole to recover. Still, they could have taken a late lead if not for a missed 44-yard field goal.
The Eagles will be sharper in Week 2 at home. Dallas' pass rush is down without suspended Greg Hardy and injured Randy Gregory. The Cowboys also are without suspended linebacker Rolando McClain. 
The Eagles have improved defensively and draw the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant, their lone deep threat and by far their best receiver. The Cowboys lack the running backs and wide receivers now to trade points with the high-powered Eagles. 

The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. 
Cincinnati has been dominant at home going 14-2-1 SU, 13-3-1 ATS. The Bengals draw San Diego traveling from the West Coast with an early start time.
The Chargers are not the complete team Cincinnati is. San Diego has a weak run defense, vulnerable to the inside pounding of Jeremy Hill. They also lack a good pass rush.
Andy Dalton has his full complement of weapons with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy, unlike last season. 
On offense, the Chargers are without suspended tight end Antonio Gates and injured tackle D.J. Fluker. Melvin Gordon has yet to step up to provide more than a mediocre ground attack in support of Philip Rivers. 

The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break.
The 49ers are off a home win Monday night against the Vikings and now must travel West to East on a short week. The 49ers had a lot to prove against the Vikings - and they did the job. Now they're in a letdown spot. This is an early start time, too, so their biological clocks are going to be off. 
The Steelers have extra rest and preparation time having opened last Thursday. The Steelers outgained the Patriots by 103 yards in their opening week loss. Even without suspended Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have far more firepower than the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick has been in steady decline for the past two seasons. Even with his mobility Kaepernick was sacked an NFL-high 52 times last season. The Steelers' defense has a lot of youth. They will improve as the season goes on. The Steelers' defense will look a lot better against the 49ers. 

The Bears' defense has been franchise-history bad the past two years - and it's still very bad this season. John Fox and Vic Fangio have outstanding defensive backgrounds, but the players they have now don't fit their defensive philosophies. 
Chicago is composed of a bunch of defensive ends trying to play linebacker. The Bears' secondary is very weak, too. Kyle Fuller has regressed since the first half of his rookie season. 
The Cardinals have the passing game to take advantage with Carson Palmer throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and underrated John Brown. The Cardinals also have upgraded their receiving at tight end. Palmer has a 30-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last 16 starts while throwing for 4,466 yards during this span. 
Arizona's defense is down from last season after losing ace coordinator Todd Bowles. The Bears still have firepower on offense. Matt Forte remains one of the best all-around running backs in football. 

The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is.
Truth be told, the Saints' defense is awful again unable to get sacks or takeaways. Their secondary is highly vulnerable due to a cluster injury problem that has eliminated their two best defensive backs.
Drew Brees can't cover this up anymore. Brees is past his prime and has the least effective weapons he's had since being with New Orleans. 
The Saints' home mystique no longer is there either. Not only did the Saints fail to cover in their last five games at the Superdome, but lost each game straight-up. 
Tampa Bay lost to the Saints in overtime and by three points during its two meetings last season. The Buccaneers are better this year. Jameis Winston should play much better this week after enduring butterflies in his first NFL start last Sunday.
Not only is Winston going against a porous secondary, but he's expected to have Mike Evans. Evans missed Week 1, but should be a go this week. He's an elite, tall target. His presence makes Winston better. 

I'm not sold on Mississippi's offense facing a defense of this caliber. Alabama yields an average of just 63 yards on the ground and has held its first two foes, Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee, to under 300 total yards. 

I'm also not sold on Alabama's passing attack. The Crimson Tide are one-dimensional featuring lots of running that eats up clock. 

These teams are more about defense than offense. In fact, they both are in the argument for top defense in the country. Those defenses are ahead of the offenses right now. Neither team has fully established its offensive identity yet. 

There were just 40 combined points scored in last season's meeting. The year before that, in 2013, Alabama won, 25-0. 

 I'm surprised this total has been bet up. I'm glad to fade the early steam move. 

I tabbed Colorado to be much improved in Mike MacIntyre's third season and I like the Buffaloes strong in this rivalry matchup.
Colorado didn't show well opening week against Hawaii, but bounced back strong last Saturday destroying UMass. Note that this game is at a neutral site - Mile High Stadium in Denver. It's a big revenge spot for the Buffaloes, who blew a 10-point lead in last year's game.
Colorado can run the ball and have a tough rush defense. Only two Pac-12 schools have a better run defense than Colorado statistically-speaking. 
So far I haven't been impressed with the Mountain West Conference. So getting a Pac-12 school at this low price represents excellent line value. No team in the Mountain West has a worst turnover ratio than the Rams, who are minus 5.
Part of this stems from Colorado State undergoing a new offense and new regime under first year coach Mike Bobo. The Rams also are replacing their best quarterback ever, Garrett Grayson. 
I'm not as high on the Rams minus Grayson and their former coach, Jim McElwain. 

Navy's record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds was around when these teams last met three years ago. Navy rushed for 512 yards in a 56-28 victory. I don't see East Carolina being able to stop Navy's option attack, nor slow down Reynolds, who has accounted for 65 career touchdowns. 
The Pirates won't be able to key just on Navy's ground attack because they lost a lot in their secondary from last season.
I expect a lot of passing from East Carolina. The Pirates couldn't run on Florida last week, but quarterback Blake Kemp was 34-of-55 throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns. 

I'm fine with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback for Syracuse especially now that he's seen action. Dungey looked good in the second half against Wake Forest last week. 
Syracuse put up 40 points on Central Michigan in last season's game. 
Led by quarterback Cooper Rush, Central Michigan has a potent offense. Rush has weapons, too. The Chippewas rank 25th in the country in passing yards. They have gone over in 22 of their last 32 road games. 

Minnesota has gone to a no-huddle offense. That's helped the Gophers finally generate some offense. The Gophers are going to play quick tempo against an overmatched Kent State. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner is an improving player.
The Golden Flashes ranked 107th last year in stopping the run. They gave up 52 points opening week in a road game against another Big Ten team, Illinois. 
Kent State has put up at least 20 points during each of its last four games except for the blowout loss to Illinois. The Golden Flashes showed plenty off offense in rolling up 45 points and close to 500 yards against Delaware State. 

The line has shrunk low enough to get involved with Florida State, which holds a talent and speed edge on Boston College. 
The Seminoles have just reloaded following the Jameis Winston era. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson is an experienced replacement for Winston and doesn't have to feel a ton of pressure as the Seminoles have one of the best running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. He's already rushed for 422 yards and scored five touchdowns in the Seminoles' opening two blowout wins against Texas State and South Florida. 
Florida State's defense has looked good, too. 
Boston College is 2-0, too, but hasn't played anybody. The Eagles have rolled past a pair of FCS members, Maine and Howard. The Eagles are a young team and they have yet to be tested. Their starters only played one quarter against Howard. 
This is what Boston College coach Steve Addazio was quoted as saying about stepping this far up in class in taking on ninth-ranked Florida State.
"I'm real worried about it right now," Addazio said. "There's not much you can do about it. Plus we're not a veteran team. ... It will be completely different." 
Sophomore quarterback Darius Wade is unproven in replacing record-setting dual threat Tyler Murphy and the Eagles also are breaking in five new offensive linemen. 

The Jameis Winston era has passed, but the Seminoles' offense remains highly potent with Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson taking over. He's backed by one of the top running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. 
Florida State is a perfect 11-for-11 in second-half possessions this season. Golson can take advantage of a young, inexperienced Boston College secondary.
Florida State's defensive strength is its secondary. But Boston College is a running team with a deep crop of very good running back. Boston College has running backs adept at running both inside and outside. The Eagles finished in the top 15 in rushing last season and should duplicate that this season.
Boston College also has a dangerous receiver/returner in Sherman Alston. 

This is a marquee matchup and the Yankees have their No. 1 pitcher going, Masahiro Tanaka. He's in outstanding form going 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his last four starts. Tanaka is tough on foes that haven't seen too much of him posting a 1.97 ERA in seven career interleague starts. 
The Yankees are 15-6 in Tanaka's last 21 starts. 
The Mets counter with lefty Steven Matz, a promising rookie who right now is the Mets' No. 6 starter. Matz isn't ready for a spotlight game like this in a pick'em type of money line range. 
The Yankees are 7-2 in their last nine road contests when facing a southpaw starter. On the season, the Yankees are seven games above .500 versus lefties. 
Matz has made only four big league starts. This is only his second start at Citi Field. Matz has never pitched against an American League team. His last two starts were against the weak-hitting Braves and Marlins. The Yankees are a major step up in competition for Matz. The Yankees rank second in the majors in runs and are third in homers and OPS. 

Toronto can stake its claim to being one of the best teams in baseball. Certainly, the Blue Jays have the No. 1 offense. 
The Blue Jays have won by more than one run in each of their last 13 victories. 
The Braves can stake their claim to being one of the worst teams in baseball as evidenced by 40 losses in their last 52 games. That's expansion level bad, which the Braves nearly are being in a clear rebuilding stage. 
Atlanta has lost by more than one run during its past 22 defeats. 
Sparked by the return of Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays got back to winning big on Wednesday crushing the Braves, 9-1. 
Toronto should do its customary damage against righty Matt Wisler. The Blue Jays are 25-9 in their last 34 games against a righthander. 
Wisler has been a disappointment. His results haven't matched the hype as he's 5-7 with a 5.60. He hasn't won since July 26. Atlanta is 0-6 in Wisler's last six starts. Twice in his last four starts Wisler has been rocked for seven earned runs while failing to reach the third inning. 
Meanwhile Toronto starter Marco Estrada has been consistently solid. Since the start of June, Estrada has gone 11-5 with a 3.11 ERA. Foes are batting only .204 against him during this span. Estrada has held opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. 

The starting pitchers aren't very good, the offenses are rolling and the bullpens are gassed. There's a slight breeze blowing out and the home plate umpire, Clint Fagen, has had more overs than unders while he's been behind the plate this season.
Everything is in place for this total to go over. 
The over has cashed in the Giants' last seven home games. The Reds have gone above the total in 10 of their past 13 games. 
San Francisco is averaging eight runs in its last five games. The Giants draw one of the Reds' weakest starters, Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen is 4-8 with a 5.45 ERA. He's 2-4 on the road with a 6.59 ERA. He has a 6.05 ERA when pitching at night. During his last four starts, Lorenzen has given up 16 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings, yielding 31 hits and five walks during this span. 
The Reds have a brutal bullpen except for closer Aroldis Chapman and he's not likely to pitch after going 1 2/3 innings Tuesday night throwing 42 pitches, the second-most he's thrown in a game this season. Cincinnati relievers have worked 15 innings during the past three days. They are overworked and bad - a combustible combination. 
Giants starter Jake Peavy has a 4.15 ERA on the season. His ERA rises to 4.59 in night contests. Peavy is well past his prime. The Reds have scored 34 runs in their last six games, an average of 5.6 runs per game. 
The Giants' bullpen is overworked, too, throwing 13 2/3 innings during the past three days. 

Kris Medlen always has had talent. He's also traditionally been tough in September. Medlen has been held back from reaching his full potential by Tommy John surgeries. 

Now the 29-year-old is back in the groove coming off his best start since joining the Royals rotation this past Wednesday against Minnesota when he limited the Twins to two runs on three hits in six innings. 

Medlen is 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA during 23 career appearances in September. 

Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin has been pitching well lately, too. But I like getting a price with the superior team and a pitcher who isn't quite getting the respect he deserves. 

Tomlin is lucky to have won his last five starts considering he was tagged for three homers in his last start this past Wednesday versus the White Sox. All together, Tomlin has surrendered 10 homers during his last six outings. 

The Indians are just 32-35 at home this season. They are 4-9 the past 13 times Tomlin has gone against opponents with a winning mark. 

The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke.

Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly.

The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. 

The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. 

Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. 

Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. 

The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. 

But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. 

The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. 

This series usually is about offense. The under has failed to cash the past five times. Look for that streak to continue as the Giants are dealing with multiple injuries on defense - especially at safety - and have not been able to develop and get used to their new defensive system. 
The Cowboys have an explosive passing attack that can take advantage. 
The Giants finished 10th in offense last season. Eli Manning quietly had a strong season. New York's offense should be even better in the second season under offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who has made Manning more comfortable in a West Coast style offense. 
The Cowboys' defense lack experience in the secondary. Dallas will be without its top cornerback, injured Orlando Scandrick. The Cowboys also will be missing their best run stopper, suspended Rolando McClain, and most feared sacks guy, suspended Greg Hardy. 

These teams met opening week at Denver two years ago and the Broncos won in a shootout, 49-27. That's not going to happen here.

The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Their first-string defense did not surrender a touchdown during preseason. The Ravens have a banged-up offensive line.

The Ravens finished in the top eight defensively last year in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points allowed per game. 

Peyton Manning wasn't driving the ball toward the home stretch of last season and his physical form hasn't improved. Neck surgeries and assorted other injuries have taken their toll on the 39-year-old. He no longer can throw deep. The Broncos did not manage a touchdown during any of the 10 drives Manning led them on during preseason.

Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs were the top pass rushing tandem last year. They will throw Manning's timing off. The Broncos will be running the ball a lot more in 2015 under new coach, run-oriented Gary Kubiak. 

There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. 
The Bengals are one of the few NFL teams without a glaring weakness. They made the playoffs each of the past four seasons. Their offense should be better this season with a return to health of A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and underrated tight end Tyler Eifert. 
Oakland should be slightly improved this season. But the Raiders are still at least two levels behind the Bengals projected to have the third-fewest victories of any team. 
The Raiders lost six game by 16 or more points last season. Derek Carr has yet to show he's more than just a check down quarterback. Oakland was held to 14 points or fewer in 62 percent of its games last season. 
Bottom line: The Raiders still are short on talent and depth. They simply aren't strong enough to hang within this short point spread of the Bengals. 

The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head.
The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! 
Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. 
Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. 
The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt. 

Redskins coach Jay Gruden is going against the NFL grain and turning Washington into a ground-and-pound team. The Redskins' offensive line is geared toward the run. The Redskins are going to rush the ball far more than imagined, which is great for the under.
Gruden wants this style in part to ease the pressure on Griffin and put him in better manageable spots. Despite good wide receivers, the Redskins are geared more to ball control than home run plays, which is a departure from past seasons.
Miami's defensive strength is its pass rushing from the edge and its defense now is fortified with maybe the league's top interior defender in Ndamukong Suh, who upgrades the Dolphins' rush defense and makes outside pass rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon even more effective. 
The Dolphins lack an explosive offense and will be facing a Redskins defense that will be much improved from a year ago, especially after cutting ties with defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. Washington actually has excellent defensive line depth and underrated linebackers led by Ryan Kerrigan. 

Congrats to Temple on beating long-time rival Penn State for the first time since 1941. 
Not to diminish the Owls' excellent home win, but Penn State was shockingly inept. 
The Owls don't have much time to celebrate as they travel to Cincinnati to face the offensively-loaded Bearcats. 
Not only does Cincinnati feature an outstanding passing attack headed by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but they have several excellent runners who unlike last season are fully healthy. 
The Bearcats won their last seven regular season games last season, all by eight points or more. They opened their season in style burying Alabama A&M, 52-10, at renovated Nippert Stadium. 
Cincinnati stays home while Temple has to travel off a week of celebrating the victory over Penn State. This is an important American Athletic Conference game for the Bearcats, who are on the road in three of their next four games. Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven ACC contests. 
No one doubts Cincinnati's outstanding offense. The key for the Bearcats is defensive improvement. Cincinnati looks improved there especially with its run defense. Temple does not have a strong offense. The Owls put up 27 points on Penn State. But in their previous seven games, the Owls averaged just 12.2 points per game. 
The spot and matchup set up well for Cincinnati. 

 

Same old story with Indiana. The Hoosiers can put up big numbers, but can't stop anybody. 
That was evident once again in Indiana's opener last week against Southern Illinois. The Hoosiers put up 595 yards of total offense and 48 points, but surrendered 47 points and 649 yards. 
Nate Sudfeld is a good quarterback and is backed by a balanced Hoosiers offense. Indiana catches Florida International in a tough situation spot. The Golden Panthers opened on the road last week and upset Central Florida as a double-digit 'dog, 15-14. Now they go back on the road off that emotional victory. 
FIU quarterback Alex McGough has thrown six touchdown passes in his last four games. He came on strong late in the season last year playing as a true freshman. McGough will find Indiana's defense much more to his liking than Central Florida's, which has given up an average of 14.7 points in its last four regular season games. 
McGough has two decent running backs, Anthon Samuel and Alex Gardner, and three good tight ends. 
The Hoosiers will be without one of their few good defensive players as linebacker Tegray Scales is sitting out the second of a two-game suspension. 

This is the right matchup to produce an over. Toledo may have the most productive offense in the Mid-American Conference. The Rockets scored 30 or more points in eight of their last 11 games last season. They are loaded at the skill positions. 
However, the Rockets don't have the speed to keep Arkansas in check. The Razorbacks have their own excellent skill position players, including quarterback Brandon Allen, running back Alex Collins and wide receiver Keon Hatcher. Arkansas rolled past UTEP, 48-13, in its opener last week. 
The Razorbacks are going to get their share of points here. The question is how many can the Rockets come up with? I'm confident they will do their share, too, to push this total over. 
The Rockets are anxious to play after their opening game against Stony Brook last Thursday was canceled after two quarters because of severe weather. Arkansas steps up in class offensively after facing the run-oriented Miners. I wasn't overly impressed with Arkansas' tackling in that game. The Razorbacks lost four of its top defensive players to the NFL following last season. The Rockets are far more balanced than UTEP and won't get shut down. 

Colorado is a frustrated team. The Buffaloes have been getting hammered in Pac-12 games. Colorado thought it could end an eight-game losing last week when it opened a touchdown favorite on the road against Hawaii. 
But quarterback Sefo Liufau wasn't that sharp and the Buffaloes lost 28-20. Now Colorado is home, where it plays much better, and has a foe it can hammer in UMass, losers of 31 of its last 36 games since moving up from the FCS' Colonial Athletic Association. 
The Buffaloes are capable of scoring big against a Minutemen squad that surrendered an average of 33 points per game last season. Colorado defeated UMass, 41-38, on the road last year with Liufau throwing three touchdown passes. The Buffaloes do have skill position talent. They know how to spread the ball around. Remember, they are a Pac-12 team. 
The Minutemen, though, have improved tremendously on offense under respected head man Mark Whipple now in his second year. UMass put up 45 touchdowns last year on offense last year, which was 28 more than the previous season before Whipple arrived for his second stint with the school.
UMass has an NFL quarterback prospect in 6-foot-6, 238-pound  Blake Frohnapfel and a star wide receiver in Tajae Sharpe, who caught 85 passes last year. The Minutemen have all but one returning offensive starter and catch the Buffaloes with several defensive line injuries. 

Expect the Big House to be rocking in Jim Harbaugh's Michigan home debut. Also expect quarterback Jake Rudock to play better than he did in Michigan's opening loss to Utah last week.
That came on the road. Now the Wolverines are home and stepping down in class drawing a low level Pac-12 team in Oregon State instead of the 24th-ranked Utes. 
Michigan not only has a huge talent edge, but Oregon State is traveling from the West Coast, playing at an unaccustomed early start time and lacking vital experience. 
First-year Oregon State coach Gary Andersen is installing a scaled down spread offense for his two freshmen quarterbacks. The Wolverines shouldn't have any trouble stopping this simplified offense. A new coach-new quarterback is rarely a good combination going on the road for the first time against a superior opponent. 
Oregon State wasn't necessarily impressive in a lackluster 26-7 opening week win against Weber State at home. Harbaugh will go after an inexperienced Beavers defense with a bevy of fresh running backs and a physical offensive line. Look for Rudock and the Wolverines runners to be much more in sync going from Week 1 into Week 2. 
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games. 

Seattle is playing well going 7-2 in its last nine games. The Mariners have a huge pitching edge and Colorado has a lot of trouble playing in spacious pitching parks such as Safeco Field, which is a total contrast to the Rockies' Coors Field. 
Colorado starter Chad Bettis has a 7.58 ERA in his last six starts. To make matters worse, the Rockies also have one of the worst bullpens in the league. The right-handed Bettis is going to have to deal with Nelson Cruz, who is back from a quad injury. Cruz ranks second in the majors in homers with 40. Seattle is 13-3 in its last 16 games versus a righty starter.  

Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts. 

The Dodgers have stepped it up winning 13 of their last 16. A key for the Dodgers in their late season surge is playing much better on the road where they have won eight of the past 10 times.
Look for that to continue at Arizona where the Dodgers have defeated the Diamondbacks 12 of the last 17 times at Chase Field. Overall in the series the Dodgers have won 31 of the last 41, including nine of the last 10. 
While the Dodgers are playing well, the Diamondbacks are not dropping 12 of their last 17. 
The pitching matchup greatly favors Los Angeles, too. 
Dodgers starter Alex Wood is pitching his best ball of the year with a 1.45 ERA in his past three starts. He held the Padres to three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Saturday in a 2-0 road win. 
Paul Goldschmidt is Arizona's big hitter and he's batting only .174 in his last 12 games. 
It can be tough to pitch at Chase Field, a hitter's park. That's been the case for Robbie Ray, who is 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA in seven games at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks have lost all seven of his home starts. 
Ray hasn't won since July 7. He's 0-7 with a 5.23 ERA during his past 10 outings. Ray has struggled with his command walking 26 in his last 51 2/3 innings. 

When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. 

Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. 

The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. 

It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. 

This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.

These two Conference USA teams are all about offense with some of the best skill position players in the conference. 
Louisiana Tech has one of the best runners in the country in Kenneth Dixon and Florida transfer Jeff Driskel has found his niche with the Bulldogs. Driskel has a pair of excellent receiving targets in Trent Taylor and Paul Turner.
The Bulldogs finished last season averaging 41.4 points during its final nine games. Louisiana Tech opened 2015 pouring 52 points on Southern - in just the first half. Driskel was hot and Dixon rushed for 106 yards on just nine carries. 
Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky last season, 59-10. 
Western Kentucky can do its share of damage with quarterback Brandon Doughty, the nation's passing leader last season, and 1,500-yard rusher Leon Allen. Louisiana Tech lost its respected defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, and has yet to be tested defensively. 
That's going to come here as it's quite a challenge for a Bulldogs defense that just played FCS-level Southern to revenge-minded Western Kentucky, the pick of many to capture the Western Division of Conference USA. The Hilltoppers scored at least 34 points in all but one of their games last season. 

It's hard to imagine this game staying under double digits considering the strong offenses and weak starting pitchers going. 
Baltimore ranks 11th in runs scored. Only three teams have slugged more homers than the Orioles, who are averaging five runs during their past six games. 
The Yankees have scored the second-most runs in baseball and rank No. 3 in homers. They are averaging 8.7 runs during their last nine games. 
Now the topper - a pitching matchup of Ubaldo Jimenez against CC Sabathia. 
Jimenez is having another rough season having won once in his last five starts while failing to reach the sixth inning during those outings. Jimenez has a horrible track record against the Yankees with a 6.60 ERA in nine matchups. He's not in good current form either with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts.
Sabathia gets high marks for guts, but he's clearly over-the-hill and has lost his effectiveness due to age and arthritic right knee. Sabathia posted a 5.28 ERA in eight starts last year. This year hasn't been any better with a 5.27 ERA in 24 starts. 
The 35-year-old Sabathia is coming off the DL and will be wearing a knee brace. Before going on the DL with knee problems, Sabathia had been lit up for eight runs on 18 hits in his last 15 1/3 innings with an eight-to-nine strikeout-to-walk ratio. Sabathia has a 6.00 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this year. 
The weather forecast is for a hot muggy night in the Bronx with a slight wind that will be blowing out. 
Paul Emmel is slated to be behind the plate. The over has cashed 32 of 54 times for 59 percent the last two years Emmel has been the home plate umpire. 

Some pitchers should not be in a big league starting rotation. Matt Boyd of Detroit is one such hurler. The lefty has made eight starts - and looked terrible in his last seven. Boyd couldn't get out of the second inning during his last start this past Thursday against the Royals yielding six runs.

Tampa Bay is 19-7 the past 26 times facing a lefty starter. The Rays are among the leaders in homers hit against southpaws with 46. Boyd has struggled with the long ball giving up 12 homers in less than 38 innings.  

Erasmo Ramirez gets the start for Tampa Bay. This is his first start ever against Detroit giving him an advantage. 

I'm not a huge fan of Ramirez, but this is more than offset by how bad Detroit is playing. Even with their one-run victory last night against the Rays, the Tigers are 4-13 in their last 17 games. It has been 17 games since the Tigers last won consecutive games. 

The Rays hit lefties extremely well and are facing one of the worst in baseball, Matt Boyd. 

Boyd has a hideous 8.36 ERA and has been sub-par in his last seven starts. He should not be in a big league starting rotation. Boyd doesn't strike out many and he has bad command. This makes for a dangerous combination reflected in a 19-to-11 strikeout to walk ratio and surrendering 12 homers in only 37 2/3 innings. 

Tampa Bay starter Erasmo Ramirez has a 3.84 ERA and also pitches to contact. He hasn't been in good form either posting a 5.87 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays are on a 10-4-1 run to the over.

The over has cashed 59 percent of the time when Chris Segal has been the home plate umpire the last two seasons. The weather forecast is calling for winds blowing out 8-10 mph. 

I question why Williams Perez and Aaron Harang are even in big league starting rotations. But they are and they meet here. It's not asking too much at all to expect both teams to put up at least four runs apiece.
Perez has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his past eight starts. Harang has given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. Neither team is backed by good middle relief.  
Perez is 0-6 with a 9.50 ERA in his last seven starts. The Phillies faced him on July 31 and bashed the righty for for nine runs in just 4 1/3 innings. The Phillies have gone over 68 percent of the time during their past 63 games against right-handed starters. 
Harang has a 7.04 ERA in his last 15 starts. The over-the-hill righty is 0-3 with a 7.99 ERA during his past six outings. The over has cashed 17 of the last 24 times the Braves have gone against a righty starter. 

Philadelphia's Citizens Band Park is a good hitter's park and the weather forecast is for slight winds blowing out on a hot muggy night conducive for offense. 

The Royals have won 68 percent of their past 79 home games. They aren't going to lack for motivation here either having lost the first two games of this series to the White Sox by an embarrassing margin of 18-2. 
Prior to Friday, the Royals had beaten the White Sox 21 of 27 times. 
The Royals are the far superior team. They are going with their ace, Johnny Cueto, against call-up Erik Johnson. Cueto has lost his last three starts. But he's always been a strong day time pitcher and has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last three starts. I don't see him losing a fourth consecutive start especially in this pitching matchup and backed by the best bullpen in the majors.
Johnson really struggled when he pitched in the majors last season posting a 6.46 ERA. He's faced the Royals twice before in his career and surrendered 10 runs in 10 innings. 
This is a kill spot for the Royals, whose last three victories have been by an average of 7.3 runs. 



 

Alabama is having problems deciding on a quarterback, while Wisconsin's quarterback, Joel Stave, just isn't very good.
Uneven quarterback play isn't going to cut it against these caliber of defenses. Only five teams gave up fewer points per game than Alabama last year, while the Badgers surrendered the fourth fewest yards per game in 2014 holding five opponents to their lowest yardage amount of the season.
Wisconsin has a well respected defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, who stayed with the program despite a head coaching change. 
Both teams suffered heavier losses on offense than on defense. 
The Crimson Tide are breaking in a new quarterback and are without star wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft. All together, Alabama lost eight offensive starters from a year ago. So expect a conservative game plan from the Crimson Tide knowing Wisconsin has one of the top secondaries in the country.  
Wisconsin loses Melvin Gordon, maybe the best running back in college last year, along with three offensive line starters. Stave also has to find new receivers. Wisconsin does have a good field goal kicker in Rafael Gaglianone. So I envision the Badgers going for field goals and playing for field position rather than risk playing a wide open game, which isn't their style. 

While Wisconsin has a good field goal kicker, Alabama probably has the best punter in the nation in JK Scott, who had a 48-yard average last season. 

Too much of a class difference here for Wisconsin to stay within double digits of Alabama, especially being one-dimensional and lacking a passing attack. 

Nick Saban wants to come out of the gate smoking after losing 42-35 to Ohio State in bowl action last season. Wisconsin, by contrast, lost 59-0 to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin is in transition with a coaching change to Paul Chryst. Pittsburgh was a slow starter when Chryst coached the Panthers before coming to Wisconsin.

Alabama owns edges all over against the Badgers, who are more inexperienced the perceived defensively.  

Texas has a big time reputation. But truth be told, the Longhorns can't compare to Notre Dame in terms of talent and experience. 
Texas' strength was its defense. The Longhorns, though, lost six starters, including four who were drafted by NFL teams. 
Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire is better than perceived and the Irish will control both lines of scrimmage. 
The Irish are home and off a confidence-building bowl win against LSU. Texas is in rebuild mode in Charlie Strong's second season. The Longhorns start a combined 12 freshmen and sophomores. They finished last season losing to TCU and Arkansas in a bowl game by a combined margin of 79-17. 
Texas doesn't have the goods to hang with an elite foe like Notre Dame, especially this early and on the road. 

There is a lot to like about the Cardinals in this game - well worth laying the price. 
First off, St. Louis is home. The Cardinals are 63-24 during their last 87 games at Busch Stadium. They own the best home mark in baseball. The Pirates are 8-21 in their last 29 games at Busch. 
Aside from home field, the pitching matchup greatly favors the Cardinals. 
Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has been a monster this season. He has a 2.03 ERA on the year. The Cardinals have won his last six starts. Garcia also has an 0.84 ERA in three career starts against the Pirates. 
Pirates starter Charlie Morton struggles against the Cardinals and in day games where his ERA is 7.32. This isn't an aberration either as Morton has a history of being bad in day contests. 
Morton is 2-10 in 16 career starts versus the Cardinals with a 5.58 ERA. He has been even worse when pitching in St. Louis going 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA in eight road outings there. 

Take Arkansas out of SEC play and the Razorbacks can score a ton such as putting up 73 points on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 52 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB during non-conference games last season. 
The Razorbacks don't need injured Jonathan Williams when they still have Alex Collins, one of the best running backs in the country, an experienced quarterback, a pair of outstanding tight end and a mammoth offensive line. Collins has exceeded 1,000 yards rushing each of the last two years - and that was splitting carries with Williams. 
UTEP surrendered more than 28 points a game last season and lacks the defensive size and talent to handle Arkansas, but its offense can score. The Miners scored 26 or more points nine times last year. They have a very good running back, too, in 1,300-yard rusher Aaron Jones and a stout offensive line that has four starters back. Arkansas lost much of its starting defense from a year ago. 

This is a Week 1 mistake by the linesmaker as this total is too low. 

Northwestern's offense finished last season in grand style averaging 38 points a game during their last three games, including putting up 43 against Notre Dame. 

The perception is Stanford is going to be a dead nuts under team because of its defense. But the Cardinal has to replace seven defensive starters. 

Stanford also finished last season strong on offense putting up 31 or more points during its last three games, including scoring 45 versus Maryland. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan was playing extremely well down the stretch and is back for his senior season along with eight other offensive starters, including four linemen.  

Washington underachieved last season and doesn't have nearly the talent it had in 2014. The Huskies are young and in rebuilding mode. 
So the timing of this opener at Boise State is not good for the Huskies and former Broncos coach Chris Petersen. 
Because of Petersen's return, this matchup takes on added importance and intensity for the Broncos and coach Bryan Harsin, a protegee of Petersen. 
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Broncos have the more experience and talent. Given their motivation, strong desire to reach the Group of Five berth in a College Football Playoff b0wl and strong home field advantage, this shapes up as a kill spot of more than two touchdowns for the Broncos. 
Boise State returns 19 starters, including its entire offensive line and three defensive line starters that has back Mountain West Conference sack leader Kamalei Correa. 
The Broncos desperately want to avoid last season's slow 3-2 start. The Broncos are on a 9-game winning streak since then, including a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win against Pac-12 South champion Arizona. 
Washington's defense was inconsistent last year and that was with three first-round NFL draft picks. On offense, the Huskies are breaking in four new offensive line starters. 
The Huskies are at least a year away from contending in the Pac-12.  

The Dodgers are not to be feared when neither Clayton Kershaw nor Zack Greinke is on the mound. LA has an inconsistent offense, shaky bullpen and mediocre back-of-the-rotation starters, one of whom is pitching here - Mike Bolsinger. 
Bolsinger hasn't started for the Dodgers since July 29. He's been toiling at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He faces a hot-hitting Padres squad averaging 6.4 runs while batting .316 during their last 12 games at Petco Park. San Diego has scored six or more runs in four of its last five games. Bolsinger has won only once in his last nine starts with the Dodgers. 
The Dodgers entered this series averaging fewer than three runs per game during their last 15 games. LA is coasting with a 6 1/2-game division lead on the Giants, who they swept at home right before this series leaving them fat and happy.  
James Shields shouldn't be an underdog to Bolsinger, especially at home. Shields is 6-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 lifetime starts at Petco Park. He is 1-0 career-wise versus the Dodgers with a 2.70 ERA in three starts. 
San Diego has a winning home record. The Dodgers have lost the last eight times they've gone against a foe with a winning home mark. 

Baylor blew out SMU, 45-0, at home opening week last season.
Now the Bears are laying five touchdowns on the road against a much more stable and improved Mustang squad. 
SMU was dysfunctional after June Jones bailed on them just nine days into the season.  
Chad Morris, the former offensive coordinator at Clemson, has had nearly two years to put his imprint and upgrade SMU after replacing Jones. Look for the Mustangs to be improved under the respected Morris, who has an up-tempo offensive style.
That style is key here because the Mustangs practice against it so they should be somewhat prepared for Baylor. The Bears were a scoring machine last year. They'll likely be a scoring machine this year, but they might be a little flat in this mail-in game. The Bears aren't that good to cover this monster road number without playing above average. 
Baylor is breaking in a new quarterback, offensive coordinator and punter. The punter the Bears lost was All-Big 12 punter Spencer Roth. He's replaced by a freshman. 
This is a much bigger game for the Mustangs. They bring back experience at the skill position and a quarterback, Matt Davis, who is a good runner and is experienced operating Morris' offense. Baylor ranked 107th against the pass last season. 
Baylor is just 3-7-1 ATS as road chalk during the last three years. The Bears, with new players at key positions, will use this game to work some kinks out. The Mustangs will be going all out. Given their expected improvement and motivation, they should be able to keep within five touchdowns of the Bears. 

The Dodgers are in letdown mode after sweeping the Giants in a pivotal series. 

LA is far less dangerous when Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke aren't pitching. The Dodgers drop all the way down to Matt Latos here. He's their least effective starter. Latos hasn't been able to reach the sixth inning during his past three starts. The Dodgers have a weak bridge to closer Kenley Jansen.  

The Padres have youngster Colin Rea pitching. He's been good and bad. But the Dodgers' offense can't be trusted to score a lot of runs, especially in the premier pitching park in the majors. The Dodgers have scored only nine runs in their last four games. 

Only once in their last 21 games have the Dodgers scored more than five runs. 

Minnesota is not the pushover the oddsmaker and marketplace think it is. Not under Jerry Kill and his long time assistant staff. 
The Gophers have played in bowl games each of the last three seasons, including a New Year's Day Bowl game last season. 
Minnesota has covered nine of the last 13 it has been a 'dog under Kill. One of those non-covers occurred last season at TCU when the Gophers lost 30-7 as 18-point 'dogs. Minnesota had a cluster injury problem in its offensive line in that game and committed five turnovers. 
Now the Gophers are healthy and quarterback Mitch Leidner is more settled down being a junior with 16 starts behind him. 
TCU may very well be overrated by the linesmaker and public. A very good team, yes. A top four team ... no. Among their road games last season for the Horned Frogs was a one-point win against West Virginia, which went 7-6 in 2014, and a four-point victory against Kansas, which went just 3-9. 
If you discount that loss to TCU last year, the Gophers have covered seven in a row as double-digit underdogs the past two seasons. No, I'm not expecting an outright upset. But I do see the Gophers living up to their feisty underdog reputation at home in a revenge spot taking what I believe is an inflated number. 

The Royals are extremely tough at home and the Tigers have almost become an auto fade these days. 
Of course the oddsmaker knows this and that's why he's made this line so high. But to get around that it's safe to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Royals in this huge mismatch.
Detroit is 2-10 in its last 12 games with nine of those 10 defeats coming by more than one run. The Tigers' last three losses have been by a combined 32 runs! 
Don't look for rookie Matt Boyd to get Detroit back on track. The overmatched Boyd is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA. Boyd has given up six homers during his last three starts. 
The Royals are going with right-hander Edison Volquez, who usually is at his best against bad teams. Kansas City is 10-2 in Volquez's last 12 starts versus under .500 opponents. The Tigers also have dropped seven of their last eight when facing a righty. 

No team has a better American League home mark than the Astros at 46-22. Houston is 22-6 in its last 28 at Minute Maid Park and is 24-7 the past 31 times at home facing a right-hander.

The pitching matchup is righty Taijuan Walker versus southpaw Scott Kazmir. Walker had to leave his last start five days ago with a cramp in his right hip flexor. 

Kazmir has a 2.64 ERA in seven starts with the Astros. He is 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last four starts against the Mariners, who are 2-8 the last 10 times they've taken on a lefty starter.  

I like the pitching matchup and I like fading the Tigers after a rare victory. Detroit edged Kansas City on Tuesday. It was just its second win in 11 games. 

The Royals have Yordano Ventura going. He was in a rut going into August, but has regained his promising form of a year ago. Ventura is 3-0 with 1 .08 ERA in his last four starts spanning 25 innings. Ventura has 32 strikeouts during this time frame and is holding foes to a .167 batting average. 

Ventura should be strong again here pitching on five days rest. The Royals are 12-4 the last 16 times Ventura has pitched with five days rest. Kansas City also has back outfield star Alex Gordon. 

Tigers starter Randy Wolf is 39. This is his third start of the season. Wolf has pitched surprising well, but is well past his prime and due to get lit up.  

What are the chances of Rick Porcello turning in a second consecutive well-pitched game?
Not good. Boston is 0-5 the last five times when Porcello has pitched following one of his quality starts, which have been rare this season. 
Prior to shutting out the White Sox for seven innings in his last start six days ago, Porcello was 1-9 with a 7.03 ERA during his last 12 starts. 
Boston is 4-9 in Porcello's last 13 starts and 1-6 in his past seven outings versus opponents with a winning record. 
The Yankees are superior to the Red Sox and should have beat them on Monday stranding 14 runners in a one-run loss. 
New York has a far superior bullpen and the better starter going with Michael Pineda, who is pitching on extra rest. The Yankees are 8-2 the last 10 times Pineda has thrown on five days rest. The Yankees also are 9-2 the last 11 times Pineda has started against an AL East club. 
Pineda is 3-1 lifetime against Boston as a Yankee with a 2.18 ERA in four starts. 

The Orioles are in a deep rut losing 10 of their last 11, including their last four games. Their four-game losing streak has occurred at Camden Yards, too. 

Now the Orioles have to try to stop the bleeding by beating Chris Archer, the Rays' ace. Tampa Bay has won 16 of the last 22 times Archer has pitched on the road. 

Baltimore is averaging only 2.7 runs during its past 11 games, while batting .216 during this span. 

The Orioles are going to start southpaw Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 4.08 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be the fifth time the Rays have faced Chen this season. Tampa Bay is 18-6 in its last 24 games versus lefties. 

If the Yankees' Nathan Eovaldi, with a 13-2 record, isn't the most overrated pitcher in baseball he's certainly the most lucky.
Take away Eovaldi's fancy won-loss mark and you'll find a 4.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Meanwhile the Braves' Julio Teheran has been one of the better pitchers this month holding foes to a .210 batting average in five August starts. 
Teheran has pitched well at Turner Field all season with a 7-1 home record and 2.55 ERA. The Yankees have never faced Teheran putting them at more of a disadvantage. 
If you discount the Yankees' 15-run outburst this past Friday, in which much of the damage was done against now demoted Braves starter Williams Perez, New York is averaging two runs per game during its last five games. 
Despite being out of contention, the Braves shouldn't lack for motivation as a big Sunday crowed is expected against the marquee Yankees. Atlanta had its largest attendance of the season on Saturday drawing 49,243. 
The Yankees go to arch rival Boston for a more important three-game series following this game. So their focus and intensity may be a little off having already won the first two games of this series. 

The Eagles are unbeaten in preseason. They've beaten the Colts by 26 points and Ravens by 23 points. 

Now the Eagles can bury another disinterested playoff team from last year, the Packers.

Green Bay just lost Jordy Nelson. The Packers are going to be missing three starting offensive linemen. That likely means they aren't going to risk Aaron Rodgers. 

The Eagles have a great offensive system in place. The Packers are not going to bother game-planning for it. 

Green Bay backup quarterback Scott Tolzien is out leaving untested and not ready for prime time rookie Bett Hundley and Matt Blanchard, who is terrible, to play quarterback for the Packers. Green Bay won't be able to trade points with the Eagles.  

This is way too high of a total for a preseason game, especially considering the Packers' injuries on offense. 
Green Bay will going with third-string rookie Brett Hundley and fourth-stringer Matt Blanchard.
The Packers have lost Jordy Nelson and three of their starting offensive linemen are hurt and not expected to play. That means Packers aren't likely to risk Aaron Rodgers for even one series. Packers backup quarterback Scott Tolizen is hurt, too, and not likely to play. 

Calgary leads the CFL's Western Division with a 6-2 mark. But the Stampeders have won only one game by more than five points with four of their victories coming by three points or less. 

Calgary wins, but doesn't cover spreads. The Stampeders have covered only one of their last nine games. They are 0-5-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. One of those non-covers for Calgary occurred last month when it just nipped Winnipeg, 26-25, as 7 1/2-point favorites. 

Winnipeg has a new quarterback, Robert Marve. He made his first start in replacing injured Drew Willy two weeks ago and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and interception in a 27-20 loss to Toronto.

The Blue Bombers haven't played since giving Marve an extra week to practice and prepare. That's huge. 

Calgary is on the road a second straight week and has a much bigger game on deck when it hosts Edmonton, it's main challenger in the West Division. 

The Stampeders could be without defensive end Charleston Hughes, who has been bothered by a bad back. It would hurt Winnipeg's pass rush if Hughes can't play. 

 Not only do the Blue Bombers have extra preparation time, but they picked up former Stampeders special teams and defensive player, Jasper Simmons. He won't play against Calgary because he doesn't know Winnipeg's system yet, but he can aid in the preparation knowing the Stampeders. 

Motivation is a big key during preseason. The Jaguars have it for this matchup. The Lions don't. 
Lions coach Jim Caldwell has lost 12 of 18 preseason games. Winning meaningless exhibition games isn't a priority for him. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 passes in Detroit's first two preseason games. I doubt he plays for too long, especially with the Lions breaking in a new right guard. Calvin Johnson isn't expected to play.
This is Jacksonville's final preseason home contest. The game is being televised nationally by CBS. Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Jacksonville management has different priorities than the Lions. They want to build up sagging fan interest and gain needed confidence.
Bradley hasn't pulled Blake Bortles until late in the second quarter. Bradley is likely to use Bortles and his starters well into the second half in order to prepare for the season and appease the home fans while trying to look good on national TV. 
Jacksonville's offense and defense has played well at times during preseason. The Lions obviously are the better team, but they don't have great depth and lack the home team's motivation. Bortles is much better than Detroit's backup quarterbacks. 

Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitcher and is in great form. So why buck him?
The answer is value. Value wins out over the course of the long baseball season and I'm hoping it shows up here. 
The Cubs have a lot going for them. They are one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 21 of their last 26 games. Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games. The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven games. 
The Cubs have the best young talent in baseball. They have scored 80 runs in their last 13 games. That's an average of more than six runs per game. 
The Giants are minus three of their best players. Hunter Pence and Joe Panik are both on the DL. Shortstop Brandon Crawford isn't expected to play because of tightness on his left side. In addition, outfielder Gregor Blanco may be out again after missing Wednesday's game with a strained left hip. The Giants may get back Angel Pagan, though. He's eligible to come off the DL today. 
Still, the Giants aren't playing particularly well. Yet they are laying a huge price despite a cluster injury problem against a hot team. 
Dan Haren is the weak link in the Cubs' starting rotation. But the veteran has two things going for him: He's facing a weakened Giants lineup that is far from full strength and he's pitching in at AT&T Park. That's huge for Haren because he's a fly ball pitcher and AT&T Park is spacious, one of the better pitching parks in the majors. 

John Lackey has a monster home/road split this season. He's pitched to a 10-3 mark and 1.91 ERA at home, but is 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA in 12 road starts. 

Lackey turns 37 in another two months and there are signs - besides his bad road performances - that point out danger such he has the second-highest line drive percentage this month. His fly ball ratio has risen each of the last three months, too. Lackey has surrendered at least one homer in four of his last five starts. Chase Field is one of the better hitting parks in the majors, it's not a good fit for Lackey. 

Note this stat: St. Louis has lost 13 of the past 16 times when Lackey has started away from Busch Stadium. 

Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin has made nine starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. He's looked good in most of them. He wasn't impressive in his last start, a 5-4 win versus the Reds this past Thursday, but previous to that he had a 2.67 ERA in his last five starts. The Cardinals have the disadvantage of never having faced him. 

Corbin has averaged more than a strikeout per inning this season and has a good history of pitching at Chase Field where the Diamondbacks have gone 15-5 the past 20 times he's been a home favorite. 

The Cardinals are an amazing 62-30 against right-handers, but a less impressive 18-15 versus lefties. 

The Rockies are more dead than Jimmy Hoffa. Colorado has dropped 13 of its last 16 and have the lowest winning percentage in baseball.  The Rockies are 4-12 in their last 16 road contests. 
Colorado is 16 games under .500 on the road for the season, while the Braves are nine games above .500 when playing at home. 
The Braves have their weakest starter, Mike Foltynewicz, going. But Colorado can't trump that pitching Chad Bettis, who has a 5.83 career ERA. In addition, the Rockies may have the worst bullpen in the majors. 
Bettis is making his first start since returning from the DL. In five starts before going on the DL, Bettis held a 7.62 ERA. 

Chad Bettis makes his return from the DL against the Braves on Tuesday. Bettis has been on the DL since July 18 due to elbow inflammation. He had a 7.62 ERA in his last five starts before going on the DL. Bettis has a lifetime 5.83 ERA. 
Colorado may have the worst bullpen in the majors. 
The Braves' offense is much more respectable with Freddie Freeman back from injury. 
The Rockies, though, can do damage facing Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 7.67 ERA in his last five starts and has allowed nine homers during his past 27 innings. Foltynewicz has been tagged for 13 runs in 9 1/3 innings during his last two starts. 

The Cardinals are not so imposing on the road and aren't playing that well lately while the Diamondbacks are 18-10 in their last 28 games and back in the division race with confidence and momentum.

The Cardinals have never faced southpaw Robbie Ray before. The Cardinals are just two games above .500 when facing southpaws.

St. Louis starter Lance Lynn is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA in four starts this month. His WHIP is 1.91 during this span having been tagged for 23 hits and a dozen walks during his last 18 1/3 inningts. Lynn is wearing down and his 117-pitch performance in his last start doesn't help his weary arm. 

The Pirates are in a tough situation flying to South Florida after beating the Giants on Sunday night. Pirates closer Mark Melancon has worked the past two days and may not be available.

The Pirates have their No. 5 starter going in southpaw J.A. Happ, who has a 5.63 ERA in 12 road starts this season. The Marlins are batting .280 versus lefties.


Miami starter Tom Koehler has been much more effective at home going 4-3 with a 3.07 ERA. 

The pitching matchup here is Scott Feldman versus Nathan Eovaldi. Feldman is a journeyman who has been pitching better than his long history shows. He's due for a fall - and the Yankees rank No. 2 in the majors in runs scored and No. 3 in home runs.
The Yankees are familiar with the 32-year-old Feldman having seen him 12 times, including 10 starts. Feldman has a 3.45 lifetime ERA versus the Yankees.
Eovaldi may be the luckiest pitcher in baseball with a 13-2 record. Talk about misleading. Eovaldi's ERA is 4.24 and his WHIP is 1.46. The Astros lead the majors in homers.
Both teams have bullpen issues, too. Houston closer Luke Gregerson has worked the past two days, while New York relievers had to go 6 1/3 innings on Sunday in relief of injured C.C. Sabathia.
The weather forecast calls for the wind to be blowing out in the 9-to-10 mph range.

Both teams have concerns about the grass surface at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers began resodding the field after a Taylor Swift concert eight days ago. But the field still remains in poor enough condition where the 49ers called off five practices. The Cowboys aren't likely to risk Tony Romo in this setting, especially with the Dallas offensive line expected to be missing four starters. Dallas also will be minus two of its top three wide receivers with Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley sitting and two of its top three tight ends. The Cowboys will be back their top three running backs - Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar - but none are expected to play long. Dallas is not concerning itself with preseason right now. The Cowboys managed only seven points in their opening preseason game against the Chargers last week and aren't likely to score much either here.San Francisco lost a lot of its defensive talent, but remain respectable on that side of the ball. The 49ers' offense, though, has struggled and has yet to show signs of consistency and getting in sync. Given the field conditions, the 49ers are likely, too, to hold out key skill position players, or at least play them very little.

Even with a pitching edge and playing better than the Marlins, the Phillies continue to not get any respect from the oddsmaker.
Philadelphia is 20-12 since the All-Star Game, but opened an underdog to the Marlins.
The Phillies have their brightest pitching prospect going in Aaron Nola. The Marlins are going with their own rookie, Adam Conley. He's lost three of his last four starts. Conley has been beat up in his last two starts surrendering 17 hits in 8 1/3 innings during this span.
Nola has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his six big league starts. Nola has won his past three decisions.
The Phillies have dominated the Marlins winning six of the last seven times.

Simply put the Cardinals want this game more than the Chargers. Arizona's first-string looked good in building a 10-0 lead against the Chiefs at home last week.
But the Cardinals' reserves were badly outplayed in a 34-19 loss. This is the Cardinals' last home preseason game. Bruce Arians, the Cardinals coach, is putting more emphasis on winning this matchup than his San Diego counterpart, Mike McCoy.
The Chargers are extremely banged-up. McCoy is going to take the conservative - and prudent - approach holding out all his nicked-up players. That means the Chargers will have a very thin secondary with several defensive backs out, including cornerback Jason Verrett. Intriguing rookie running back Melvin Gordon also won't play.
"We'll hold some guys out that normally would play," McCoy was quoted as saying. "... We're looking to get all 53 healthy for the opener. That's the big picture."
The Chargers beat the Cowboys in their Week 1 preseason game. A big reason for that was the Cowboys didn't care about winning that game. Despite that the Chargers managed less than 200 yards of total offense. The Chargers also had problems pass blocking so McCoy is unlikely to risk Philip Rivers.
The Chargers got their win. Now it's the Cardinals' turn.