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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-05-21	Wings -3.5 v. Liberty		96-99	Loss	-110	9 h 1 m	Show
New York defeated Dallas earlier this season, 88-81. There's one huge difference now in the rematch: The Liberty is minus Natasha Howard, who is injured. She's the Liberty's leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. The Liberty is 4-8 ATS without her. I consider the Wings to be the better team even though the team's are each 9-9. Dallas has covered six of the last eight in this series and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road contests.
07-04-21	Dream v. Aces -15.5		95-118	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
Atlanta has the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Dream also is missing star player Tiffany Hayes. The timing isn't good either for the Dream. Las Vegas is coming off a poor performance in a 66-58 win this past Friday on the road against the Sparks. Las Vegas failed to cover a 15-point spread. Only once this season have the Aces failed to cover two straight games. A'Ja Wilson and Liz Cambage should dominate inside for the Aces. The Aces also have the perimeter shooting to take advantage of the Dream's WNBA-worst defensive field percentage defense.
07-04-21	Red Sox v. A's -106		1-0	Loss	-106	10 h 0 m	Show
This has been an exciting series. I rate the A's, though, a stronger edge at home than what the opening line is. The Red Sox have won 43 of 61 games versus non-AL West teams. But against AL West foes they are 9-14. Boston traditionally has trouble playing in Oakland like many other teams do. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus James Kaprielian. Pivetta has a 4.43 ERA and a much higher WHIP than Kaprielian, who has a 3.06 ERA and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts. Pivetta hasn't won since May 26. He has a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts and has surrendered eight homers during his past four starts.
07-04-21	Padres v. Phillies OVER 9		11-1	Win	100	7 h 55 m	Show
I'm not overly fond of playing Overs on a Sunday when reserves start more than any other day of the week. But these teams have deep hitting lineups and the pitching matchup is bad. Blake Snell is a good pitcher - when he's at Petco Park. He's been a disaster on the road with a 10.36 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. Foes are batting .328 against Snell on the road. I'm not a fan of Phillies starter Vince Velasquez. He's at his worst, too, in day games with a 7.23 ERA. It's not just this season. He has a career 5.40 ERA in day action. Velasquez can't expect to be bailed out either by a disappointing Phillies bullpen. The weather conditions are fine with a slight wind blowing out to right.
07-04-21	Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates	Top	0-2	Loss	-108	7 h 52 m	Show
Here's my coat and hat. I've arrived at the go-against the Pirates party. Milwaukee has won 11 in a row, including outscoring the Pirates by 19 runs during the first three games of this series. Pittsburgh has lost six in a row, with all of the defeats being by more than one run. It's easy to envision another lopsided Brewers win here in a pitching matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Tyler Anderson. The Brewers are 11-4 in Peralta's 15 starts. Here's why. Peralta has a 2.17 ERA, which shrinks to 1.47 during his last nine starts. He's one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with 122 k's in 87 innings. Anderson, a lefty, is 3-8 with a 4.75 ERA. He's lost six of his past seven starts. Milwaukee is 8-1 the past nine times going against a southpaw starter.
07-03-21	Cardinals v. Rockies -101		2-3	Win	100	14 h 12 m	Show
It can be a cliche to call a below-average, well-traveled pitcher a journeyman. In the case of southpaw Wade LeBlanc it's not a cliche. It's a fact. LeBlanc has shown up with the Cardinals this year. It's his 10th different team in 10 years. There are worse spot starters in the big leagues. But it's not exactly a plus if LeBlanc is in your starting rotation. LeBlanc and his hefty 5.60 ERA get the start here - at Coors Field. LeBlanc has pitched better for the Cardinals after posting a 9.45 ERA with the Orioles, who waived him because of that. But he's still Wade LeBlanc and he has a horrid history at Coors Field with an 8.54 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. Colorado is an entirely different team at home, winners of 19 of its last 26 games at Coors Field. The Rockies lead the National League in batting at home and also are No. 1 in the National League in hitting versus lefties. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is rounding into shape allowing only one run with 14 strikekouts and two walks during his last 11 innings. The Cardinals aren't likely to have ace closer Alex Reyes after he pitched two innings on Friday. The Rockies' best reliever, closer Daniel Bard, did not pitch yesterday.
07-03-21	Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5	Top	118-107	Loss	-109	17 h 18 m	Show
The Bucks had something to prove playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 5 and they proved it with a convincing, 123-112, home win against Atlanta. Now it's the Hawks who must play with desperation down 3-2 in this Eastern Conference Final. I highly doubt Antetokounmpo plays. Trae Young is iffy, but won't be 100 percent if he does see the court because of a bruised foot. Young is a streak shooter. He figures to be rusty if he does manage to play. This is deep playoff basketball being Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The teams will compensate for their missing stars through super-intense defense. That means for the Hawks clamping down on the Brook Lopez-Jrue Holiday show that was so effective in Game 5. Bobby Portis isn't going wild again either. The Hawks have the coaching and defense to do this especially at home. Atlanta has yielded just 101.2 points in its last four home games. Milwaukee is averaging 100.8 points in regulation during its last five away contests. The last five in this series played in Atlanta have all gone Under. The Bucks are down two of their ball handlers with Antetokounmpo and Donte DiVincenzo out. This puts a lot of pressure and extra burden on Holiday, who also is a key defender. Holiday isn't going to sacrifice his defense. The Bucks shot 51 percent from the floor at home in Game 5. They shot 39.3 percent from the floor and scored 88 points during Game 4 in Atlanta.
07-03-21	Red Sox v. A's -127		6-7	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Whether it's physical, mental or both, some pitchers are having trouble dealing with MLB's crackdown on foreign substances. Garrett Richards is one such pitcher. Richards is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA during his last seven starts. He is 2-3 lifetime when pitching at Oakland with a 4.35 ERA during a span of 51 2/3 innings. The A's are tough at home and rate a pitching edge with Cole Irvin, who is coming off an unbeaten June and just beat the Giants this past Sunday. Irvin hurled eight shutout innings against the Giants while giving up just three hits and two walks with eight strikeouts. Oakland has won seven of its last 10 home games. The Red Sox are hot, but still have lost four of their last seven road games.
07-02-21	Aces -14 v. Sparks		66-58	Loss	-115	14 h 58 m	Show
LA just hosted Las Vegas two days ago and it was no contest. The Aces buried the Sparks, 99-75. LA was minus three of its top six players, including its best player, Nneka Ogwumike. She's out for this game, too, along with her sister, Chiney. Kristi Toliver, who's second in assists for LA, may not play again either. The Sparks are not well-coached and lack the firepower to hang with the Aces, the top-scoring team in the WNBA. The Aces like to put on a show when playing in LA. There were a number of NBA stars at Wednesday's game, including LeBron James and Damian Lillard. The Aces have the motivation and overwhelming talent edge to produce another blowout.
07-02-21	Red Sox v. A's -101		3-2	Loss	-101	17 h 10 m	Show
History is littered with strong AL East teams on a roll flying cross-country after a successful homestand only to encounter trouble in Oakland. This should be another example. Boston is riding a seven-game win streak. All of those victories came at Fenway Park. Now the Red Sox visit Oakland, a place where they have lost 70 percent of the time during their past 56 games there. It's Boston's first road game in eight days. The Red Sox are 2-4 in their past six away contests. Oakland is tough at home again this season. The A's have won seven of their past nine home games and have a pitching edge with Eduardo Rodriguez facing Frankie Montas. Rodriguez has a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts. His career mark versus the A's is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA. Montas has been solid in all but four of his 16 starts, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer 12 times. He has a 1.13 career ERA versus the Red Sox in three appearances.
07-02-21	Lightning -130 v. Canadiens	Top	6-3	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
The Canadiens did a fantastic job pulling off one of the great playoff series upsets when they eliminated the Golden Knights. But Montreal doesn't match up nearly as well against defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay. The Lightning have defeated the Canadiens in 14 of the last 17 meetings. This includes outscoring the Canadiens by an 8-2 margin to go up 2-0 in this Stanley Cup Final. Switching venues to Montreal isn't going to change that. The Canadiens are limited to just 3,500 fans. The Lightning didn't come close to playing its ''A'' game two days ago in Game 2 yet still won, 3-1. The Lightning are capable of playing far better. Montreal lacks the offense to stay with Tampa Bay. The Lightning not only have their top scorers back, but their defense and goaltending have been superb. Tampa Bay has surrendered just four goals in regulation during its last five games. Andrei Vasilevskiy trumps Carey Price in net.
07-02-21	Twins v. Royals UNDER 10.5		4-7	Loss	-120	16 h 44 m	Show
I know, a pitching matchup of J.A. Happ versus Brady Singer inspires little confidence that a low-scoring game will be taking place. But because of that the oddsmaker has set too high of a total on this Twins-Royals matchup. I don't see these teams combining for double-digits runs here. Happ pitched well in his last start holding the Indians to two runs in six innings. Cleveland isn't a strong offensive team, but neither is Kansas City. The Royals rank 24th in runs and 25th in homers. They have scored 2 or fewer runs in four of their last six games. Kansas City is missing a pair of key offensive cogs in Andrew Benintendi and Adalberto Mondesi. Singer is a promising starter, who is going through growing pains with a 3-6 record and 4.70 ERA. Singer has been respectable in two starts versus Minnesota this season giving up three runs in 7 2/3 innings. The Over has won just three out of the last 15 times the teams have met in Kansas City.
07-01-21	Giants -136 v. Diamondbacks		3-5	Loss	-136	13 h 47 m	Show
Giants minus $1.36 at Diamondbacks The Giants haven't lost four in a row all season. I certainly don't see it happening here. Despite their three-game losing streak, the Giants have the best record in baseball at 50-29. Arizona has the worst mark at 22-60. The Diamondbacks are a mind-boggling 2-24 in their last 26 games! San Francisco has dominated Arizona winning the past 10 meetings. The pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto versus Merrill Kelly. Cueto is 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA. Kelly is 4-7 with a 4.73 ERA. The Giants hold a big bullpen edge. San Francisco has hit the second-most homers in the majors. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors. Arizona also is down two of its best players with Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly injured.
07-01-21	Cardinals v. Rockies +110		2-5	Win	110	13 h 44 m	Show
Fade the Rockies on the road, play on them at home. As I wrote yesterday in picking Colorado to beat the Pirates, there is no team more Jekyll/Hyde with their home/road splits than the Rockies. Losers of 31 of 37 road games, the Rockies are 28-16 at Coors Field while leading the league in home batting average. So I'm interested whenever I see Colorado as a home 'dog, which is the case here. Maybe it's name recognition why the oddsmaker opened St. Louis the favorite since the pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus Antonio Senzatela. Wainwright isn't nearly the star he once was and he's pitched poorly on the road with a 2-2 record, 6.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to use their star closer either as Alex Reyes has thrown 47 pitches during the last two days. St. Louis has lost nine of its last 10 road contests. The Rockies are 12-2 during their last 14 home games going against a righty starter. Senzatela is that rare pitcher who has fared better at Coors Field where he has a 3.91 ERA on the season. He's facing a St. Louis lineup that has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games. St. Louis also is 6-15 in its last 21 games versus a righty starter.
07-01-21	Hawks v. Bucks -125	Top	112-123	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
The NBA playoffs have a Quentin Tarantino feel to it with the way all the stars keep getting knocked out. Reservoir Dogs was less gruesome to watch than seeing Trae Young and now Giannis Antetokounmpo go down with leg injuries. This brings us to today's Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. No Antetokounmpo for the Bucks. I doubt Young plays either. If he does, his mobility will be severely restricted due to an ankle/bone injury suffered in Game 3. Atlanta stepped up without Young to upset the Bucks at home, 110-88, two days ago. Now it's the Bucks' turn to step up at home down their superstar. Can the Bucks do it? The oddsmaker believes so, opening Milwaukee a slight home favorite. I believe so, too. Perhaps the Bucks subconsciously let up in Game 4 knowing Young was out. Milwaukee didn't shoot well especially from 3-point range, missing 31 of 39 shots from beyond the arc. The Bucks were trailing by 10 when Antetokounmpo hyperextended his knee in the third quarter. Stunned seeing Antetokounmpo out and in pain, the Bucks were blown out the rest of the way. No one stepped up for Milwaukee. I'm banking that the Bucks will be much stronger physically and mentally in protecting their home-court advantage now that the reality of Antetokounmpo being out has sunk in. The Bucks are the deeper team and they have solid pros in Kris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Middleton picked up the slack scoring 36 points in last year's Game 4 first-round playoff series against the Heat when Antetokounmpo had to leave two minutes into the second quarter. Milwaukee won that game. So the Bucks are capable. The Bucks led the NBA in scoring. They were fifth in 3-point shooting percentage. Antetokounmpo, for all his greatness, is not an accomplished 3-point shooter. Keep in mind, too, that the Hawks are banged-up - and it's not just Young. Clint Capela is questionable with eye inflammation, Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore knee and talented De'Andre Hunter is out.
06-30-21	Aces v. Sparks +12.5		99-75	Loss	-110	7 h 4 m	Show
This is too many points for Las Vegas to be giving up on the road and in a letdown spot. The Aces are coming off a highly-satisfying 95-92 overtime win at home against the Storm. Las Vegas is 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season. The last time the Aces played on the road they were upset by the Lynx last Friday. This also is the most points the Aces have laid on the road all season.
06-30-21	Suns -101 v. Clippers	Top	130-103	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
Whether it was big-game inexperience, or Monty Williams getting his ass out-coached by Tyronn Lue, the Suns failed to seize the moment. They had a golden opportunity to close out the Western Conference finals by eliminating the banged-up Clippers at home this past Monday. Instead, they made uncharacteristic mistakes and were caught off-guard by the Clippers switching to a small ball lineup. Phoenix is 19-7 ATS following a loss. I expect the Suns to bounce back and beat the crippled Clippers, who are down Kawhi Leonard and possibly starting center Ivica Zubac again. Leonard is one of the top-five all-around players in the league. Zubac, who missed Game 5 with a knee injury, has an LA-best plus 25 ratio during the first four games of the series. He's probably LA's most underrated player. The Suns have a full deck now. They had a top-six defense during the regular season and rank No. 2 defensively in the playoffs. Thanks to the steady hand of Chris Paul, the Suns rarely make mistakes. Devin Booker is as dangerous a scorer as Paul George and Deandre Ayton has stepped up to earn stardom during this series. I don't see the Clippers catching the Suns off-guard, like on Monday, with a small-ball lineup. Until that game, the Suns had proven worthy against small-ball lineups. Phoenix has no experience closing out a Western Conference final. But the Suns are the better team. The pressure on them is less severe being on the road. This is their time.
06-30-21	Twins v. White Sox -123		3-13	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior White Sox at home against the highly disappointing Twins. Chicago is 29-14 at home. The pitching matchup is rookie Bailey Ober versus Dylan Cease. Ober has made five big league starts. He gave up four runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Reds during his previous start eight days ago. Ober doesn't pitch deep into games and is prone to giving up homers. He's gone five innings just once and has surrendered four homers in 21 1/3 innings. He has a 4.64 ERA. The White Sox faced him May 18 and got to him for four runs in four innings. The White Sox, who rank in the top nine in runs and batting average, hit two homers of Ober. Cease is enjoying a breakout season in this his third year. He's 6-3 with a 3.81 ERA. His metrics are improved across the board.
06-30-21	Mets v. Braves -143		2-20	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
Because of a slow start and being injured, Max Fried is undervalued. Fried, though, was pitching well before going on the injured list. He's set to start for Atlanta today. Fried is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.73 ERA in 14 appearances against the Mets spanning 56 innings. Current Mets are batting .178 against Fried lifetime. Fried started turning his season around during the middle of last month. He's had quality outings in six of his last seven starts. The Mets are going with David Peterson, who is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Peterson is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA during his last three road starts.
06-29-21	Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219	Top	88-110	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
Trae Young is questionable with a bruised foot/ankle sprain so now we have the lowest total of this series for this Game 4. It's still worth going Under. Young is averaging 29.8 points and 9.5 assists in 15 postseason games. The scoring average spikes to 32.7 points against the Bucks. Even if Young can play, which I'm assuming he'll give it a try, he's not going to be 100 percent. His mobility is going to be impacted, probably severely. He scored only three points during the final 13 minutes of Sunday's Game 3. The Hawks can't make up for Young's reduced firepower because of other player's injuries. De'Andre Hunter is out and sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic is bothered by a sore knee. The Bucks are underrated defensively. Only four teams were better during the season in defensive shooting percentage. Milwaukee is giving up just 101.4 points in its last five games, three against the Hawks and two versus the Nets. Atlanta's defense showed huge improvement once Nate McMillan took over as coach. The Hawks ranked third in defensive 3-point percentage. Atlanta has given up 105.6 points in its six playoff home games. The Hawks' mindset is going to be on defense with Young out, or limited. I'm expecting a slow tempo with the Hawks emphasizing patience and trying to work the ball inside to John Collins and Clint Capela, who are more secondary-type of scorers. Kris Middleton broke out of a slump to connect on 15 of 26 from the floor in the Bucks' 113-102 Game 3 Sunday victory. Middleton, though, had missed 24 of 36 field goals during the first two games. Aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don't have another scorer that can fully be trusted. There are some key current Under trends. The Hawks have gone Under six of the last seven times they've been a 'dog, while the Bucks are 5-1-1 to the Under when favored. The low side also has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
06-29-21	Twins v. White Sox -129		6-7	Win	100	15 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball with a 33-43 mark. They are the third-largest money burner based on closing lines. The White Sox are 28-14 at home. They have a pitching edge and caught a break with Monday's postponement. Now the White Sox should have Jose Abreu back in the lineup while star closer Liam Hendriks will be available after throwing a combined 29 pitches in appearances this past weekend. The starting pitching matchup is Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito. Maeda has a 4.85 ERA, but has been pitching better lately. Still, he's nowhere near his Cy Young Award runner-up form of last season. Maeda was supposed to start three days ago, but two rainouts have pushed back his start all the way until today. So his routine could be off. Giolito faced the Twins once this season. That came on May 19 and he was dominant. Giolito held the Twins to one run on two hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts and three walks. Giolito has a 3.35 home ERA this year. The White Sox have defeated the Twins in six of the past seven meetings.
06-28-21	Clippers v. Suns OVER 214	Top	116-102	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
From a high of 222 1/2 in Game 2 of this Clippers-Suns Western Conference Finals, we now have the total reduced eight points in this Game 5. An 84-80 Game 4 will do that. I certainly don't expect the Clippers and Suns to combine to shoot just 34.3 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point range like they did in Game 4. Instead let's go back to Game 3. The Clippers won that game, 106-92. Yes, that's just a combined 198 points and another easy Under winner. The Under has cashed the past three games. But this total - the lowest of the series - the ebbs and flows and due factor all help put me on Over for this Game 5. Now, getting back to that 106-92 Game 3 Clippers victory. LA shot 45 percent from the floor and 35 percent from 3-point range. That's not outstanding shooting yet 106 points were produced. The Clippers averaged a 48.2 shooting percentage during the regular season and 41.1 3-point shooting. Kawhi Leonard's absence cuts both ways. Yes, he's a great offensive force. But he's also one of the best defenders in the league. I don't expect to see Rajon Rondo on the court anymore. That's a huge plus for the Over - and for the Clippers. Rondo didn't play in Game 4 after compiling a horrific minus 30 court time during the first three games of the series. The Clippers' points per possession goes way down when Rondo plays. Rondo should do the Clippers and NBA a favor and retire. Yes, the Suns were held to only 92 points in Game 3. But they had 90 shots. Unfortunately for them, they hit just 39 percent from the floor and only got to shoot 13 free throws. Based on that volume of shots and expected increase in free throws, the Suns should score around 114 points, which is slightly lower than their season average of 115.3 points per game. Phoenix ranked second in field goal percentage and free throw percentage during the season. The Suns smell a close-out game at home. They'll be going for the kill. Chris Paul is just the man to orchestrate that. It's his third game back from quarantine so the rust is off. Deandre Ayton has become a star in this series. The Clippers can't stop him inside. Ayton's outstanding play should open things up for Devin Booker, who is way overdue for a big game. Booker, who shot 48.4 percent from the floor during the season, has shot just 18-of-59 from the field for 30.5 percent during the last three games. He's had three games to adjust now to a plastic face guard that protects a broken nose he suffered in Game 2. So I'm expecting the Suns to have a much-higher scoring game. The Clippers have no choice, but to keep up with their season on the brink. That means this one could get ugly at the end with a lot of fouling.
06-27-21	Storm v. Aces -2		92-95	Win	100	5 h 20 m	Show
These are the two best teams in the WNBA and I like the home spot for the Aces and how they buried the Storm during their last meeting, 96-80, on the road. Las Vegas may have got caught looking ahead to this matchup as its five-game win streak was snapped, 90-89, in overtime at Minnesota this past Friday. The Aces are 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Seattle hasn't played in five days. So the Storm could be rusty. The Aces hold the best net rating in the WNBA at 13.0. They lead the league in offense at 109.4 points per 100 possessions while owning the No. 2 defensive rating at 96.4.
06-27-21	Yankees -150 v. Red Sox	Top	2-9	Loss	-150	10 h 2 m	Show
Divisions aren't determined by a single June gme. But this may be the Yankees' most important game of the season. New York is 0-5 versus Boston this season, outplayed in every game. The Yankees trail the Rays by six games in the AL East. The Yankees need to beat Boston and they're in great position to accomplish that with a pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole against Eduardo Rodriguez. It's a mid-size lay price, but I find value since I would make the Yankees nearly a 2-to-1 favorite to win this game. Cole continues to live up to his huge contract and superstar status. He's 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. His 123 strikeouts through 15 starts are the most in Yankee history of any pitcher's first 15 starts. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is enduring his worst season. He has a 6.07 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. I don't know if he's fully healthy. He hasn't been good all year and his current form is even worse than his season numbers - an 0-4 record and 7.94 ERA during his last eight games. Opponents are batting .325 against him during this span.
06-26-21	Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5		10-1	Loss	-124	16 h 29 m	Show
This is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. It's such a mismatch I feel very confident laying 1 1/2 runs with the Padres at home. San Diego is that good with eight straight victories and arguably the best and most exciting player in the game, Fernando Tatis. Arizona is that bad with 24 straight road losses and 1-20 record during its past 21 overall games. The Diamondbacks are 3-34 in their last 37 games. The pitching matchup and bullpen greatly favor the Padres, too. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 5.06 ERA. Padres starter Dinelson Lamet has a 2.81 ERA and is rounding into shape pitching deeper into games. He has electrifying stuff.
06-26-21	Suns v. Clippers UNDER 218.5	Top	84-80	Win	101	18 h 13 m	Show
The question isn't if the Suns and Clippers are good enough defensively to get Under this total. They are. The Clippers ranked fourth in the NBA defensively, while the Suns were seventh. The important question is can defense prevail here in this Game 4? I saw enough in the Clippers' 106-92 Game 3 win two days ago to emphatically say Yes. Circumstances, injuries, coaching adjustments and playoff intensity are the right brew for this matchup to go Under again. Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Payne are the three most important players in regards to the total. There are strong factors working against all three of them. The 36-year-old Paul was in home isolation doing no activities for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. He got back into action in Game 3 and predictably was rusty making just 5-of-19 shots from the floor. The Clippers have the athletic and big wing players to effectively cover Paul and they did an excellent job. Monty Williams foolishly played Paul 39 minutes in an obvious lost-cause game. It remains to be seen if Paul will play better, but at his advanced age and given his fatigue situation he's certainly not going to set a fast pace. The Suns would be more up-tempo if backup point guard Payne were healthy. He's not, though. He's questionable with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Booker is playing with a bothersome plastic face guard after suffering a broken nose in Game 2. Booker lit up the Clippers in Game 1, but in the last two games he's shot just 10-for-37 from the field for 27 percent. The Suns aren't playing the defensively-challenged Nuggets here. Even minus Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers are far superior defensively to the Nuggets. They've held Phoenix to an average of 98 points the past two games. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the teams have met in LA. Phoenix is going to have to try to win this game with a hard-nosed defensive effort, sacrificing its dwindling offense. The Suns have given up fewer than 107 points in eight of their past 10 games. The Clippers only have one reliable scorer, Paul George, with Leonard out.
06-26-21	Suns v. Clippers +1	Top	84-80	Loss	-101	18 h 12 m	Show
Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But given the Suns' fragile physical situation, it's surprising to find the Clippers again opening as a home underdog to the Suns. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 11 times hosting the Suns, including beating them, 106-92, two days ago. If it weren't for Deandre Ayton scoring a basket in the final second of Game 2, the Clippers would be leading the series, 2-1, and LA likely would be favored by several points. The Clippers have much better depth than the Suns. They have the big men and wing players to bother a weakened Chris Paul and sharpshooter Devin Booker, who suffered a broken nose in Game 2 and has been hindered playing with a plastic faceguard. He's made just 27 percent of his field goals during the last two games. Paul had a terrible Game 3 after being in home isolation for eight days due to COVID-19 protocols. Paul is 36 and logged 39 minutes this past Tuesday. The best defense against Paul, who had been magnificent in the playoffs prior to going into isolation, is to throw athletic, wing men at him. The Clippers accomplished that with Paul George, Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum. Paul never could find his shooting range and his passing lanes were disrupted. Cameron Payne, Paul's effective point guard backup, couldn't help because of an ankle injury. He could go only four minuts. This puts the Suns in a real bind especially given Booker's shooting woes. Unsung players are needed to step up in the playoffs to help their superstars. The Clippers are getting that from Reggie Jackson, who is averaging 23 points in the five games Leonard has missed in the postseason. The Clippers have shown their mental toughness. They've fallen behind 0-2 in their series against the Mavericks and Jazz. LA won Game 3 and Game 4 in each of those series. Look for that pattern to continue here.
06-25-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	91-125	Loss	-104	17 h 18 m	Show
Bookmakers who have futures jeopardy on the Hawks - and there are their share of them - need to be concerned. Atlanta isn't following the standard protocol of paying playoff dues before establishing itself as a title contender. The Hawks are talented enough, have the right coach in Nate McMillan and a hot Trae Young, who is using this postseason to launch himself into superstardom, to jump the gun. The Hawks have enough to beat a vulnerable Bucks team that is getting way too much respect. I thought taking eight points with the Hawks in Game 1 was overly generous. I gladly accepted that and I'll gladly accept 7 1/2 points because this is an even series. So what if the Bucks are home? Atlanta is 6-2 in road playoff games. The Hawks have covered in 13 of their last 16 visits to Milwaukee. Being at home just means more pressure on the Bucks, who have yet to prove anything during the playoffs under Mike Budenholzer. So what if the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo when the Hawks have their own superstar in Young. I actually believe the Hawks are the more talented team given their big men of John Collins and Clint Capela. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 116-113, in Game 1 in part because they grabbed four offensive rebounds during the final two minutes. Collins and Capela combined to have a plus 20 ratio when they were on the floor. The Bucks had a negative 14 ratio when their big man, Brook Lopez, was on the court. The Bucks have a number of defensive stoppers such as Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker. Yet Budenholzer chose to put washed-up veteran Jeff Teague on Young during the second quarter. Teague only played around six minutes, but Young went crazy during this span just when it looked like the Bucks might have established early momentum. I don't point this out to nitpick Budenholzer, but to illustrate that his poor playoff history does not warrant any form of trust. Milwaukee blew a seven-point lead with a little more than four minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks have no business being favored this high again in the series. But I'm not here to argue. I'm just thankful to receive another gift.
06-25-21	Mariners v. White Sox -1.5		9-3	Loss	-100	10 h 57 m	Show
Seattle southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is pitching better than he ever has in the majors with a 4-3 record and 3.46 ERA. However, he can't compare to White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon, who is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Rodon has a 1.42 ERA in three starts this month and has a 1.50 ERA in four career starts versus Seattle. Kikuchi also has to face a team that mashes lefties. The White Sox rank either second or third against lefties in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 30-6 versus southpaw since the start of last season. Kikuchi has a lifetime 11.05 ERA against the White Sox in two starts. Seattle is 15-21 on the road. They rank second-to-last in batting average and also second-to-last in hitting when going against lefties. The White Sox have been an elite home team going 27-12, including 7-3 this month at Guaranteed Rate Field.
06-25-21	Indians +119 v. Twins		7-8	Loss	-100	10 h 56 m	Show
The 31-43 Twins have been one of the biggest disappointments this season not only to their fans, but also to their bettors. They are the third-biggest money burner in MLB. So I don't get them being favored in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Danny Coulombe. Quantrill has pitched better than his 0-2 record with a 2.74 ERA. He blanked the Pirates for five innings in his last start giving up three hits this past Saturday. The best thing you can say about Coulombe is he's not Randy Dobnak, who was scheduled to start. Dobnak, who is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA, was scratched because of injury. So Coulombe will be making his first major league start. He's been around the majors since 2014. The Twins are his third team. He's thrown only 2 2/3 innings this season giving up two hits and three walks. The Indians hold a major bullpen advantage. Cleveland has won seven of the last nine times it has been a road 'dog.
06-25-21	Aces v. Lynx +7		89-90	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
I'm expecting the Aces to be rusty having not played for eight days. They are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more day's rest. Las Vega also could be mentally flat following the news that several of its player were selected to play in the Olympics. So the Aces could have trouble focusing while also dealing with overconfidence. The Lynx last were in action two days ago when they came from 18 points down to pull off a road win against the Dream. Las Vegas can overwhelm its opponents inside with stars A'ja Wilson and Liz Cambage. But the Lynx has their own star center, Sylvia Fowles. I also like Lynx's coach, Cheryl Reeve, better than Aces' coach Bill Laimbeer.
06-24-21	Mystics v. Sparks +4		82-89	Win	100	12 h 14 m	Show
The Sparks have been up and down this season. But they are in a good spot here catching the Mystics off a stunning road victory against the Storm two days ago. Washing was 13 1/2-point 'dogs in that game while missing a number of players, including superstar Elena Delle Donne. The Mystics are in a letdown spot here and still could be missing Delle Donne along with four other contributors. This is an important game fo the Sparks. Their next game is at Phoenix followed by four games versus the Aces and Storm. So LA can't afford to take a home loss here. LA has been strong in this role covering eight of the last 10 times as a home 'dog.
06-24-21	Suns v. Clippers +1.5		92-106	Win	100	17 h 6 m	Show
If not for a last-second dunk by Deandre Ayton in Game 2 and the Suns shooting 55 percent from the floor in Game 1, the Clippers could be heading home up 2-0 in this Western Conference Finals instead of down 0-2. If that were the case, this line would be much different. The landscape is going to change in this Game 3 and it's not just because the scene shifts to LA. The Suns are expected to get back Chris Paul while Kawhi Leonard remains out for LA. It doesn't matter. I still see the Clippers winning this Game 3. I like the Clippers' bench better. Ty Lue has convinced me he knows how to make proper adjustments. Home-court can't be diminished. The Suns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Clippers. But I also like that the Clippers came back from 0-2 in each of their previous series to take out the Mavericks and Jazz. That's huge psychologically. This is a veteran team that won't panic. Lue is a coaching upgrade on Doc Rivers. Paul has had an MVP-caliber season. He can't play much better, though, than how his replacement, Cameron Payne, played this past Tuesday scoring 29 points and dishing off nine assists. Paul's return is factored into the line. So I'm fine with that. Devin Booker scored 40 points in Game 1 making 15 of 29 shots from the floor. However, the Clippers clamped down on Booker in Game 2 holding him to 5-of-16 field goal shooting. It's proven to be a mistake to write off the Clippers this season. I'm not going to make that mistake here.
06-24-21	Golden Knights -138 v. Canadiens	Top	2-3	Loss	-138	18 h 33 m	Show
As strange as it sounds, maybe beating the Canadiens, 4-1, in the first game of this series after overcoming the Avalanche in a tough series was the worst thing that could have happened to the Golden Knights. Since that decisive opening game victory, the Golden Knights have lost three of four to Montreal. Now the Golden Knights are on the verge of elimination down 3-2 in the series. How will they respond? Certainly the letdown factor has long since disappeared. Las Vegas is the superior team. But that doesn't mean that much now as the Canadiens' confidence is sky-high, Carey Price has stayed hot in net and Montreal is on house money. Those make for a dangerous combination. Yet I see Las Vegas winning this game and the price finally has come down enough to back the Golden Knights. Las Vegas has overcome adversity. The Golden Knights trailed in their series against the Wild and Avalanche before coming back to eliminate those teams. The Golden Knights are off a 4-1 loss from two days ago. They are 9-1 the past 10 times following a loss of three goals or more. Las Vegas has done the job as a road favorite winning 20 of the past 27 times in that role. Key center Chandler Stephenson is back in the lineup for Las Vegas. That gives the Golden Knights' four solid lines. So they own a depth edge, which increases in importance as the series grows longer. The Golden Knights ranked first defensively in the NHL and were third in scoring at 3.39 goals per game. However, they've managed just seven goals during their past four games. Price has a 2.01 goals above average when facing an average shot distance of 39.82 feet, a metric courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com. Price has played well this entire postseason, but he's far from the best goalie in the league like he was a few years ago. The top six forwards on the Golden Knights have combined for only one goal in the series. Las Vegas is a much better scoring team than that. The Golden Knights are way overdue. They've also had plenty of time to see and adjust now to Montreal's 1-1-3 neutral zone blockage style of play. So I see Las Vegas making the proper adjustments - both on the ice and in their heads - while their overdue scorers finally break out with the season on the brink.
06-23-21	Hawks +8 v. Bucks	Top	116-113	Win	100	14 h 28 m	Show
If the Hawks didn't prove it against the Knicks, they sure proved it against the 76ers. They are young, well-coached, dangerous and can win on the road as their 5-2 away playoff record shows. Trae Young and Atlanta are playing on house money. They are battle-tested now and deserving of more respect than this inflated line. The pressure is on the Bucks, especially at home. Great during the regular season, disappointing in the playoffs. That's what the Bucks have been the previous two seasons under Mike Budenholzer. I don't see the Hawks stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo even though Nate McMillan greatly improved Atlanta's defense. But the Hawks have enough scorers to keep this close if not pull the major upset. Young can win a series by himself with his scoring and passing. The Hawks have other outside shooters and a pair of effective big men, John Collins and Clint Capela. Their talent level is right there with the Bucks. Atlanta has covered in 12 of its last 15 visits to Milwaukee. The point spread is too lopsided. It might not be this high again the rest of the series.
06-23-21	Rockies v. Mariners +103		5-2	Loss	-100	11 h 46 m	Show
Terrors at Coors Field, meek as a lamb on the road. That's your 2021 Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are 5-28 away this season. It's a record they've earned with their league-low .199 road batting average. Colorado is averaging 1.8 runs during its last 17 road contests. The Rockies needed to be faded on the road - and that's what I'm doing here in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Justus Sheffield. It looks like Colorado has a pitching edge - on the surface. Marquez has 4.26 ERA. Sheffiled's ERA is 5.65. Marquez, however, is that rare pitcher who does better at Coors Field. He's 0-5 on the road with a 5.74 ERA. Sheffield is better at home where he's 4-2 with a 4.96 ERA. Sheffield faced the Rockies once before. That was last year and he beat them by throwing six scoreless innings.
06-23-21	Cardinals -120 v. Tigers	Top	2-6	Loss	-120	8 h 13 m	Show
Injuries to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull have forced the Tigers to call up Matt Manning. He's Detroit's top pitching prospect. However, Manning's time hasn't come yet. He's being rushed to the lineup too far ahead of schedule. Manning still was learning the ropes in Triple-A where he had an 8.07 ERA for Toledo while surrendering 11 homers in 32 1/3 innings. This will be Manning's second big league start. He pitched five innings against the Angels this past Thursday giving up two runs on four hits in five innings. Now the Cardinals have a first-hand scouting report on Manning. They know for instance that he threw 70 percent fastball against the Angels. It's hard to rely solely on just one pitch in the big leagues. John Gant goes for St. Louis. He has a respectable 3.50 ERA and a 2.08 lifetime ERA against the Tigers in three appearances, including one start. The Cardinals own a huge bullpen edge especially at closer with Alex Reyes, who has 17 saves and a 0.82 ERA.
06-22-21	Giants +116 v. Angels	Top	5-0	Win	116	20 h 18 m	Show
Anthony DeSclafani is underrated. Just like his team, the Giants. San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Angels are a .500 club and without their best player, Mike Trout. DeSclafani is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA. He's 3-0 in his past three starts with a 1.35 ERA during this time span. Angels starter Andrew Heaney has been inconsistent his entire career and he's been inconsistent against this season. Heaney has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts versus San Francisco. The more reliable pitcher is DeSclafani and the Giants are much the superior team. So I'll gladly accept a plus price with them. The Giants have won 13 of their last 17 road contests. They were idle on Monday so their bullpen is rested. The Giants have won each of the past seven times following a day off.
06-22-21	Clippers +5.5 v. Suns	Top	103-104	Win	100	19 h 20 m	Show
The Suns played well, especially Devin Booker, and defeated the Clippers, 120-114, in Game 1. The Clippers didn't play as well and were in a quick turnaround spot after having just knocked off the Jazz while the Suns were extremely well-rested. Phoenix made 55 percent of their shots from the floor. The Clippers connected on 45 percent. Yet the Suns still won by just six points. Now that the Clippers have 52 hours between games in Phoenix, I'm expecting a better performance, proper adjustments and a closer game. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA closed out the Jazz without him. No Chris Paul for the Suns, which is just as big of a loss if not more because Paul runs the team and was playing at peak efficiency. The Clippers have made the right adjustments all season. I trust they'll do it again here so I'm taking these points in the belief this is going to be an extremely close game.
06-22-21	Red Sox v. Rays -110		9-5	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
First the bad news. Tampa Bay has lost six in a row. Now the good news. All of those defeats were on the road. The Rays are back home for the start of this series. Tampa Bay has won 69 percent of its last 94 games at quirky Tropicana Field. The Rays square off against Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a terrible season with a 6.21 ERA. Opponents have reached Rodriguez for at least four runs in six of his past seven starts. Rodriguez is 1-3 lifetime versus the Rays with a 5.44 ERA. The Rays are going with the two-headed monster of Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough. Kittredge has a 1.34 ERA and is expected to get the start. He has a 2.53 career ERA versus Boston in 15 appearances. Yarbrough, who is expected to take over during the middle innings, has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three appearances spanning 21 1/3 innings.
06-21-21	Brewers -123 v. Diamondbacks	Top	1-5	Loss	-123	19 h 10 m	Show
If the Diamondbacks aren't on your autofade list they certainly should be especially when the lay price is manageable like this one. Arizona has lost 17 in a row! The Diamondbacks are 2-30 in their last 32 games! Shades of the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The Brewers enter this matchup going with Brett Anderson and with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Anderson has a 4.24 ERA, which is still better than Arizona starter Merrill Kelly's 5.40 ERA. Anderson is coming off a magnificent start against the Reds, a much stronger offensive team than the Diamondbacks. Anderson held the Reds to no runs in seven innings allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out nine this past Tuesday. The Diamondbacks will be missing catcher Carson Kelly, who ranked third on the team in homers and RBI's. He suffered a broken wrist against the Dodgers two days ago.
06-21-21	A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5		3-8	Loss	-110	16 h 47 m	Show
Globe Life Field is a huge pitcher's park. Given a pitching matchup of Frankie Montas versus the weak-hitting Rangers and Kyle Gibson starting for Texas, Under is the way to go in this game. Montas has proven reliable and steady. He has a 3.07 ERA during his last seven starts. He's backed by a solid A's bullpen. Gibson is enjoying his breakthrough season. He has a 2.09 ERA. He's held 11 of his 13 opponents to two runs or fewer. The Rangers' bullpen is bad, but they do have closer Ian Kennedy back from IL.
06-20-21	Golden Knights -1.5 v. Canadiens		2-1	Loss	-100	15 h 26 m	Show
Montreal has a surprising 2-1 lead on Las Vegas heading into Game 4 of its Stanley Cup series. But the Canadiens have not shown they are the better team. Not to denigrate the Canadiens' achievement, but they are extremely fortunate to be up. The Golden Knights have been in this come-from-behind position before down 1-0 to the Wild and 2-0 to the Avalanche. They responded each time, winning those series. Las Vegas dominated much of Game 3 only to lose 3-2 in overtime on a rare mistake by rock solid goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. The Golden Knights have fired 106 shots on goalie Carey Price during the first three games. Price can still be very good, as he's shown during the playoffs, but he isn't in his prime. Las Vegas has generated pressure despite Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, its two best offensive players, generating just one assist between them. Both are way overdue to produce. I see the Golden Knights breaking out in big fashion here so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 goals on the puck line and go for a huge plus price return.
06-20-21	Hawks +7 v. 76ers		103-96	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Discount the Hawks at your own peril. Since the start of March, the Hawks are 34-14. They have won four of six road playoff games, including twice in Philadelphia. The Hawks beat the 76ers when down by 18 points and defeated them again when trailing by 26 points. Just what is so good about the 76ers that they should be this high of a favorite? Doc Rivers isn't a great bench coach. Joel Embiid is dealing with a tear in his right knee and is highly frustrated. Ben Simmons has to be lifted during crucial moments because he can't be trusted. The 76ers haven't proven anything. The 76ers have yet to hold Trae Young in check. The Hawks lost by five points in Game 6 because they only made 13 of 24 free throws, shot 41 percent from the floor and hit just 10 3-pointers out of 31 shots. The looks were there. Atlanta just had a cold-shooting game. All the pressure is on the 76ers. Moreso because they are home. Atlanta is on house money. The 76ers have choked before against this team at home. They are not worthy of being this high of a favorite.
06-20-21	Clippers +4 v. Suns		114-120	Loss	-109	9 h 53 m	Show
No Kawhi Leonard. No Chris Paul. The Clippers have shown they can still win without Leonard going 2-0 against the Jazz minus their superstar. But can the Suns win without Paul? Paul was instrumental in Phoenix sweeping Denver averaging 25.5 points and 10.3 assists while playing nearly 36 minutes a game. Now he's out due to COVID protocols. Terance Mann stepped-up big time in relief of Leonard scoring 39 points against the Jazz two days ago. Mann has to be accounted for now after that monster performance. The Suns have yet to prove they can adequately fill Paul's spot and beat an elite opponent in a playoff game. The Suns sweep of Denver could actually hurt them here. The Clippers are riding the momentum of reaching the conference finals for the first time in their history after eliminating the Jazz this past Friday. The Suns, on the other hand, could be flat and rusty having last played a week ago. Phoenix has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times it has played on three or more day's rest.
06-20-21	Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11.5		7-6	Win	100	13 h 14 m	Show
Two horrendous starting pitchers. Depleted bullpens. A hot muggy day with temperatures in the 80's. Coors Field. This combination should be enough for the Brewers and Rockies to each score at least six runs apiece. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors. They get to face lefty Eric Lauer, who has a 5.18 ERA and is the Brewers' last starting pitching option. The Brewers draw Chi Chi Gonazlez, who is in the argument for worst starter. He has a 6.86 ERA in his past six starts and has surrendered 12 runs in his last 11 innings. Both bullpens have been heavily used.
06-20-21	A's +120 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 29 m	Show
Perhaps it's the Yankee mystique. Whatever it is, the wrong team is favored here. The A's are 44-28. That's their best start in 31 years. They are 13-3 this month and have won seven of their past eight games. The Yankees have a losing home record. They are 1-6 in their last seven home contests. Oakland is 19-10 on the road. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus southpaw Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefties. The A's have a higher batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws than the Yankees. Oakland is 18-9 against lefthanders. Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA. He has been one of the hottest pitchers with a 3.0 mark and 0.84 ERA in his last five starts. Montgomery is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He has a 4.20 ERA. His day time ERA is 7.11.
06-20-21	Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles		7-4	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
There probably aren't going to be too many opportunities left to fade Matt Harvey. So I'm taking my shot laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line in a monster pitching mismatch of Hyun Jin Ryu versus Harvey. Harvey has a 12.00 ERA in his last SEVEN starts. He's allowed at least five runs in six of those outings never reaching the fifth inning. The Orioles are 12-22 at home and are 9-15 versus lefty starters. Ryu has a 3.25 day time ERA.
06-19-21	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9		9-3	Loss	-110	12 h 56 m	Show
The Diamondbacks have a below average offense that is made worse when they face righties. They draw one of the best righthanders in baseball, Walker Buehler, who has a 2.38 ERA. Buehler is in great form going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA during his past three starts. Arizona has scored 3 or fewer runs in seven of its last 11 games. Arizona is pitching Matt Peacock, who hasn't looked good this month. The Diamondbacks and Peacock, however, have several things going their way defensively. The Dodgers are down three of their sluggers with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Corey Seager all out. LA has averaged only 2.8 runs in its last six games. Two more pluses for the Under is the roof being closed for this game and Doug Eddings being the home plate umpire. No other umpire has a higher strike call percentage than Eddings during the last eight years.
06-19-21	Brewers v. Rockies -109		6-5	Loss	-109	11 h 57 m	Show
Don't just look at the Rockies' 30-41 overall record. It must be broken down to home-road. Colorado is the worst road team in the majors. But at Coors Field the Rockies are highly-dangerous going 25-14 while batting a league-best .281. The Brewers know this all too well. They've dropped seven in a row to the Rockies, including the past five in Colorado. The price is right to back Colorado again as Milwaukee is not starting any of its big three. Instead, bottom of the rotation starter Adrian Houser gets the call. The Brewers are cold having dropped five consecutive games. Austin Gomber goes for the Rockies. No pitcher has been more effective at Coors Field lately than Gomber, who hasn't allowed an earned run during his last 23 1/3 innings at Coors.
06-19-21	Bucks v. Nets -118	Top	115-111	Loss	-118	13 h 25 m	Show
OK, why the Nets for Game 7? I could cite the zig-zag theory where it's the Nets' turn to win. Or I could cite these two huge angles: The Bucks are 1-9 ATS the last 10 times as underdogs, while the Nets are 11-1 ATS the past 12 times as home favorites. Brooklyn also is 4-0 ATS the past four times hosting the Bucks. I also like the Nets being home where the Barclays Center crowd has provided enough energy to make a difference. But in the end it comes down to trust. Mike Budenholzer is an outstanding coach during the regular season. I don't trust him, though, in the playoffs where he seems to get outcoached. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the top-five players in the game. However, I trust Kevin Durant more to deliver a big performance. Antetokounmpo is great, but he's not in the clutch Michael Jordan/LeBron class. My feeling is Durant comes up big, James Harden comes through with a gutty performance and the Nets take care of business at home.
06-19-21	Lightning v. Islanders +114		2-3	Win	114	5 h 50 m	Show
This has been an extremely tight series. So taking a plus price with the home Islanders makes sense. The Islanders controlled much of the action during the last two periods of Game 3 on Thursday, but lost, 2-1. I trust Islanders coach Barry Trotz to make a few adjustments, especially at home where he has last say on the lines, to get this series evened up. New York is 7-2 the past nine times when playing on one day rest. The Islanders also are 25-10 during their past 35 home contests.
06-18-21	Phillies v. Giants -126	Top	3-5	Win	100	12 h 16 m	Show
It's past time to give the Giants their due. San Francisco is 44-25, which is the best record in baseball. The Phillies are 12-25 on the road this year. The pitching matchup is Vince Velasquez, who has a 4.25 ERA, versus Johnny Cueto, who has a 4.00 ERA. Velasquez has a 12.9 percent walk rate. Cueto's walk rate is 4.8 percent. The price is fair. So I'm going to ride the Giants. San Francisco has been tremendous in this role winning 25 of the last 31 times it has been home chalk. The Phillies have lost 16 of the last 21 times playing in San Francisco. The Phillies have scored just six runs in their last three games. They are likely to get Bryce Harper back, but are down two key mid-infielders with Jean Segura joining Didi Gregorius on IL.
06-18-21	76ers -3 v. Hawks		104-99	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
What could the 76ers do for an encore after blowing an 18-point lead to the Hawks in Game 4? Blow a 26-point lead in Game 5. This was one of the biggest choke jobs in NBA playoff history. So, why has the oddsmaker made Philadelphia a road favorite for Game 6? Because they know the 76ers are the better team. I agree with that assessement. It might even be better for the 76ers to be getting out of Philadelphia. There's no chance of the 76ers coasting if they build up another early lead on Atlanta. Trae Young is phenomenal. He's a rising superstar. But he goes hot-and-cold. Not so with Joel Embiid. The 76ers can count on Embiid for a huge game even though he's not 100 percent. I trust the rest of the key 76ers - mainly underrated Tobias Harris and Seth Curry - to give Embiid needed scoring assistance. When the Hawks lose during the postseason they lose big. Their three defeats have been by nine points to the Knicks and by 16 twice to the 76ers.
06-18-21	76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222	Top	104-99	Win	100	15 h 56 m	Show
During the past two games in this series, the 76ers have averaged 103 points and the Hawks have averaged 106. Both games went Under. The oddsmaker has come down a little on the total for this Game 6, but not enough. The 76ers ranked No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They are going to be cautious and defensive-minded here after blowing monster leads during the past two games. Atlanta became a respectable defensive club when Nate McMillan took over. This has carried into the playoffs where the Under has cashed in seven of the Hawks' 10 games. The pace has slowed in the last two games to where possessions are less than 99. I don't expect any changes in style of play. If there is, it would be even slower tempo and more defensive intensity as the 76ers try to stave off elimination.
06-17-21	Cardinals +170 v. Braves	Top	0-4	Loss	-100	14 h 39 m	Show
Maybe the Braves should be favorites here, slight favorites. But at this price the line is outrageous. It presents tremendous value on the Cardinals. St. Louis has won three in a row. The Cardinals have allowed only five runs in their last four games. The Braves are 1-6 in their last seven games. Atlanta is a season-worst five games below .500. The pitching matchup is John Gant versus Charlie Morton. It's Morton who has the bigger name, but you can make the argument Gant has been the more effective pitcher this season. Morton has a 4.50 ERA. Gant's ERA is 3.36. Gant has been better on the road, too, where his away ERA is 2.27. Morton has a bad history against the Cardinals. He's 2-12 lifetime versus them with a 5.68 ERA in 18 starts. It has been 10 years since Morton last defeated the Cardinals. Atlanta's bullpen has been disappointing, while the Cardinals' Alex Reyes has developed into a top closer ranking fourth in saves with 17 while holding a 0.82 ERA. The Braves' bullpen carries a high fatigue ranking also. Atlanta has permitted 10 runs in each of the past two days. Braves relievers have logged 11 2/3 innings during these last two days. St. Louis has enjoyed good success against the Braves in Atlanta winning 11 of its past 15 visits.
06-16-21	Clippers v. Jazz -2.5	Top	119-111	Loss	-112	13 h 53 m	Show
The Jazz have played 81 games this season. Not once have they lost three in a row. A combination of talent, home-court and coaching will carry the Jazz through this Game 5 and ensure they won't drop three consecutive games for the first time this season. Utah's defense and bench is far stronger than it showed during the Clippers' 118-104 Game 4 victory in LA two days earlier. The Jazz beat the Clippers in the first two games of the series, both in Utah, and outscored the Clippers by 10 points in the second half of Monday's loss. Utah shot 51.4 percent from the floor in the second half, while holding the Clippers to 42.9 percent shooting from the field during the second half. That bode wells for the Jazz turning things around. So does returning home. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games in Salt Lake City. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS as a road 'dog. It's an added plus for Utah if Mike Conley can finally play. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are superstars. But Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are near that level. Gobert is the best defensive big man in basketball. I also like Utah's reserves more than the Clippers. The Clippers are in trouble if both Leonard and George aren't playing their "A" games. I also give the Jazz a solid coaching advantage with Quin Snyder against Ty Lue. (Update: I made this selection before news of Kawhi Leonard being out surfaced. The line has moved considerably following this news. I still like the Jazz to cover against the Clippers, but I would lower my wager at minus 6 1/2 or more.)
06-16-21	Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5	Top	6-5	Loss	-107	6 h 54 m	Show
Neither the Tigers nor the Royals are scoring much. Detroit is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games if you discount its 10-run performance two games ago. The Royals are averaging 2.6 runs during their last 10 games. They've been held to three runs or fewer in nine of those 10 games. The pitching matchup is Tarik Skubal versus Brady Singer. Skubal has a 4.35 ERA while Singer's ERA is 4.85. Hence this high total. But are Skubal and Singer really bad pitchers? Skubal has a 2.12 ERA in his last three starts. He's struck out 43 during his past five starts spanning 27 innings. His ERA in day time games is 2.05. Singer has a strong history versus the Tigers with a 2.86 ERA in six career starts. Singer has 20 strikeouts in his past three starts and is coming off a quality start against the A's. Marvin Hudson is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 17-13 the past two years Hudson has been behind the plate for 57 percent. This is an early start get-away game so some starters could be rested.
06-15-21	Angels v. A's -120	Top	4-6	Win	100	16 h 54 m	Show
Nothing against southpaw Andrew Heaney, who has been pitching well. But I want the A's going for me here and this price allows me to get involved. Oakland has won 10 of its last 12 games. The A's are off to their best start in seven years going 41-27. Oakland is 44-21 the past 65 times facing a lefty starter at home. Like many teams, the Angels have problems when playing at Oakland losing 11 of the past 15 times there. A's starter Frankie Montas has the same ERA as Heaney at 4.37 with four more strikeouts. Montas has a 2.65 ERA during his last three starts. The Angels are down superstar Mike Trout and also could be without third baseman Anthony Rendon, who suffered a triceps injury last night.
06-15-21	Bucks v. Nets +4.5	Top	108-114	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
This Bucks-Nets series has had a certain ebb and flow to it. Brooklyn opened the series as the better team. That's changed now since James Harden and Kyrie Irving were injured. Milwaukee is the superior team now. I acknowledge that. But I believe the combination of Kevin Durant, home court and tremendous emotional energy - part of the ebb and flow after the Bucks won the last two games - will keep the Nets in this one. The Nets are experienced playing without all three of their superstars on the court at the same time. They have role players such as Joe Harris and Blake Griffin who can step up when needed. The Nets' supporting cast, bolstered by adrenalin and home-court, has something to prove after being overlooked all season. This is their chance. Brooklyn has covered in 13 of its last 16 home games. The Bucks have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. I don't trust Milwaukee to cover a margin in this road setting especially when the Bucks could be feeling overconfident facing the Nets minus Harden and Irving.
06-15-21	Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5		2-4	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
The Islanders frustrated the Lightning in winning Game 1 of this series, 2-1. But now there's heavy juice on Over 5 for this Game 2. The oddsmaker and marketplace, which is sharp when it comes to hockey, obviously believes that the scoring will double in this Game 2. I don't disagree. Tampa Bay was the No. 8 scoring team in the NHL during the season averaging 3.2 goals despite missing key scorers and the Lightning will be making adjustments following their Game 1 upset loss. The Lightning is a much more dangerous offensive team with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos healthy. The Islanders are extremely effective at picking their spots and counter attacking. They have scored 3 or more goals in nine of their 13 playoff games. New York is averaging 4.2 goals during its past four games.
06-14-21	Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights	Top	1-4	Loss	-124	30 h 22 m	Show
Few, if any, thought Montreal would be one of the four finalists for the Stanley Cup. But here the Canadiens are. They are loose, playing on house money and in a great position to ambush the host Golden Knights in Monday's opening game of their semifinal series. The Canadiens are rested and prepared having not played in a week after sweeping Winnipeg. The Golden Knights still could be partying after taking care of Colorado in a hard-fought, exciting six-game series that concluded Thursday night. Las Vegas is the superior team. No argument there. But it's a mistake to underestimate Montreal like the oddsmaker has done. So taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with Montreal makes tremendous sense. Can the Canadiens actually pull this first game upset? They just have to hang close - and there are signs they can do just that. Montreal has won seven in a row. The Canadiens have a winning road mark. They also have defeated the Golden Knights during their past four meetings with the last coming last year since the teams did not meet this season. Las Vegas played only West Division teams. This is the Golden Knights' first game versus a team outside the West Division. Carey Price could be the hottest goalie of the postseason. He's 8-3 with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. Las Vegas goalies, by comparison, have given up 2.4 goals during the playoffs with a .908 save percentage. The Golden Knights lost Game 1 of their opening playoff series against the Wild. They also lost in Game 1 against Colorado. The Canadiens eliminating the Maple Leafs was as impressive as the Golden Knights taking out the Avalanche. Montreal would be 11-2 in its last 13 games if given 1 1/2 goals. Las Vega would be 3-6 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 goals.
06-14-21	Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5		1-4	Win	100	14 h 11 m	Show
I see this opening game of the Canadiens-Golden Knight series as a feeling-out process. Montreal hasn't played in a week. Las Vegas is in a bit of a flat spot after eliminating Colorado, a squad many thought was the best team in the West. The Golden Knights surrendered the second-fewest goals in the NHL during the regular season at 2.2 per game. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is top level. The Canadiens have stepped up their defense while riding the hot hand of goalie Carey Price to give up just nine goals during their last six games for a 1.5 average. Price has been the hottest goalie of the playoffs with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage in 11 games.
06-14-21	Reds +139 v. Brewers		10-2	Win	139	15 h 56 m	Show
Cincinnati starter Vladimir Gutierrez is a promising rookie with a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Milwaukee starter lefty Eric Lauer is a journeyman, who is the Brewers' No. 6 starter. He's 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Gutierrez beat the Brewers, 7-3, this past Wednesday with a quality start giving up two earned runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts. That was Milwaukee's lone loss in its last 10 games. The Reds, though, also have been hot winning eight of their last 10. The Brewers padded their hot streak by beating the Pirates and Diamondbacks a combined seven times during their last 10 games. Cincinnati is 6-3 on the season versus lefty starters. The Brewers have the superior defense and bullpen. The Reds, however, own a huge offensive edge and the better starting pitcher. So at this plus price, I'll go with the Reds.
06-13-21	Suns -3 v. Nuggets	Top	125-118	Win	100	29 h 14 m	Show
The oddsmaker has adjusted 4 1/2 points from Game 3 when the Suns were road underdogs. It still isn't enough. The Suns are vastly superior to the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets. Phoenix has won by 17, 25 and 14 points at Denver during Friday's Game 3. The Suns still won by double-digits on Friday despite the Nuggets playing the hardest they have all series and their superstar, Nikola Jokic, scoring 32 points, pulling down 20 rebounds and dishing off 10 assists. It didn't matter. The Nuggets don't have the starters to match the Suns and their bench isn't nearly good enough to compensate. The loss of Murray is huge. This is what I wrote for Game 3 when I also had the Suns: "No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now." None of that has changed. Devin Booker remains a huge force and Chris Paul is playing great with a 34-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. The only change could be Denver's morale and confidence. The Nuggets know no team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. Their best shot two days ago wasn't nearly enough. That has to be depressing.
06-13-21	Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5		3-5	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
The Rangers handed the Dodgers their worst loss of the season last night beating them, 12-1. I see the Dodgers getting big revenge here in a pitching matchup of Walker Buehler versus Dane Dunning. Buehler could break the Dodgers record for longest unbeaten streak if he doesn't lose here, having not lost during his last 21 starts. Buehler is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA. He's coming off a two-hitter against the Pirates this past Tuesday where he held Pittsburgh scoreless for seven innings. The Pirates are batting .226. The Rangers are hitting .229. Dunning is 2-4 with a 4.26 ERA. He's backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Until stunning the Dodgers on Saturday night, the Rangers had lost 16 straight road games. It was their first win at a National League park in 12 games. The Rangers have lost by multiple runs during each of their past six defeats. LA has far better depth than Texas. This could be telling since teams often use Sunday to play more of their reserves.
06-13-21	Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5		14-3	Loss	-100	6 h 1 m	Show
No day of the week is better for baseball Unders than Sunday. It's usually a getaway day and also the most frequent day when starters are rested. So I'm expecting to see a number of reserves from both teams. Another big factor for an Under is Framber Valdez starting for Houston. He's back in form since coming off the injured list being 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA. He has a 22-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 1/3 innings. The Twins are familiar with Valdez. He pitched five scoreless relief innings against Minnesota during the Astros' Game 1 AL wild-card series last year. Michael Pineda gets the starting call for Minnesota. He didn't have a good outing two starts ago, but posted a 2.62 ERA during his first eight starts this season.
06-12-21	Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 223.5	Top	106-132	Loss	-110	14 h 20 m	Show
Donovan Mitchell is darn good. But he's not Superman like he's shown during the first two games of this series. Thanks to Mitchell averaging 41 points in the series, the Jazz are averaging 114.5 points in the series. I don't see Mitchell and the Jazz keeping up those scoring averages as the series shifts to LA. The Clippers ranked fourth during the season in scoring defense and sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. I don't find Tyronn Lue the sharpest card in the coaching deck, but finally during the second half of Game 2 he found the right type of zone defense to limit Mitchell and the Jazz. Utah was held to 51 points during the final two quarters of Game 2. I wonder, too, if Mitchell hurt his ankle after a collision with Paul George late in Game 2. Keep in mind, the Jazz haven't had point guard Mike Conley yet for the series. He's questionable for this Game 3. I'm certainly expecting the Clippers to show full playoff intensity defense against Utah. The Jazz have held the Clippers to an average of 110 points. That's four points below the Clippers' season average. Utah has Rudy Gobert, the defensive player of the year, and Bojan Bogdanovic played tremendous defense against Kawhi Leonard during the final quarter of Game 2. George is shooting 12-of-35 from the field in the series. The Clippers can't really rely on others for big-scoring performances besides Leonard and George. The Jazz finished in the top-3 in the major defensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. So I envision defense ruling the day in this Game 3 matchup.
06-11-21	Suns +1.5 v. Nuggets	Top	116-102	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
I understand and respect the zig/zag theory of playoff basketball. Denver is down 0-2, returning home in must-win mode. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. I have no doubt that the Nuggets will go all out, mustering all of their intensity. But it won't be enough. This series is a mismatch. Phoenix is playing too well and is two levels - not just one level - above the Nuggets right now. Chris Paul has a 26-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio in the series. Devin Booker is a force. The Nuggets are totally overmatched in the backcourt. This is where Denver really misses injured Jamal Murray. The Nuggets' backcourt is composed of Austin Rivers and Facundo Campazzo. These aren't playoff-caliber starters. Rivers is a journeyman. Campazzo is a reserve thrust in an ill-suited starter's role. The Nuggets were able to overcome the Trail Blazers in their previous playoff series because Portland isn't a good defensive club. Phoenix is. The Suns don't have a weak defender. Phoenix hasn't surrendered more than 109 points in a playoff game. Denver is averaging 101.5 points against the Suns. That's 14 points below its season scoring average. Aside from Nikola Jokic, who has been good but not dominant, the Nuggets don't have the scorers to defeat the Suns. Michael Porter Jr. has back problems and Aaron Gordon is best when he's not needed to be counted on like he is here. The Suns have thrived in this role covering 13 of the last 19 times as a 'dog.
06-11-21	Pirates v. Brewers -1.5		4-7	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
The Brewers have three of the most underrated starting pitchers in the majors. Brandon Woodruff is one of those pitchers. He has a 1.13 ERA in his last 11 starts with 87 strikeouts in his last 72 innings. Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 games. The Brewers have won by more than one run during nine of their last 10 victories, so I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with Woodruff and Milwaukee against the woeful Pirates. Pittsburgh has one decent starter, JT Brubaker, and he's not pitching today. Instead the Pirates are going with Chase De Jong, who has a 5.40 ERA and shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Milwaukee has scored 5 or more runs in six of its last eight games. The Pirates have lost 48 of their past 65 road games.
06-11-21	Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5	Top	2-4	Loss	-110	15 h 39 m	Show
The Orioles have the second-fewest wins in baseball. But they can hit left-handers. That's bad news for Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough. Baltimore leads the majors in batting average against lefties at .292. The Orioles also rank first in slugging percentage and OPS when facing left-handers. The Over has cashed the past seven times Baltimore has gone up against a lefty starter. Yarbrough is 0-2 with a 4.62 ERA when pitching at home. This is in line with his career numbers, which have been better on the road. Yarbrough has a 3.46 lifetime ERA on the road compared to 4.48 at Tropicana Field. Baltimore starter, Keegan Akin, is just the opposite. His career numbers are a 2.92 home ERA compared to a 5.57 road ERA. Only three teams average more runs per game than the Rays.
06-10-21	Nets v. Bucks -3.5	Top	83-86	Loss	-109	9 h 44 m	Show
It's kind of scary to think how good the Nets would be if they had James Harden having beaten the Bucks by a combined 47 points during the first two games of this series. Both of those victories came in Brooklyn. Harden won't be able to play in this Game 3. Certainly tremendous credit to the Nets. But are the Bucks really this outclassed? I don't see it. Neither does the linesmaker, who has installed Milwaukee as a solid home favorite for this game. The Bucks can beat the Nets inside. They just haven't been able to keep up with the Nets from 3-point range. New Jersey is shooting 44.4 percent from beyond the arc, while the Bucks have made just 24.6 percent of their 3-point shots. Khris Middleton has been especially cold. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a minus 22 rating when he was on the court in Game 2. Middleton isn't a star, but he's certainly better than he's shown. Antetokounmpo isn't in the Michael Jordan/LeBron James Top of the World category, but he's easily one of the 10 best in the NBA right now, if not among the five best in the league. The Bucks went 4-0 following a loss of at least 20 points. After each blowout loss, they responded with a victory in the following game, winning those games by an average of 18.8 points. The Nets are playing on house money right now going on the road up 2-0. The Bucks are home and have tremendous motivation especially with their pride on the line. Maybe the Nets win this series. But a sweep? No sir.
06-10-21	Brewers -113 v. Reds	Top	7-2	Win	100	4 h 48 m	Show
Freddy Peralta is having the type of season many envisioned Luis Castillo to be having. Peralta has been one of the best - and most underrated - pitchers in the National League with a 6-1 record and 2.25 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He enters today's game 12 strikeouts away from leading the league with 92 in 64 innings. Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's starts this year. Castillo has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball with a 2-8 record, 6.63 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. I cut him from my Rotisserie team weeks ago without even bothering to try to trade him. I just wanted him off my team. Peralta and Castillo squared off on May 23. The Brewers won, 9-4, getting to Castillo for five runs in five innings. The Brewers also rate a strong bullpen advantage. Milwaukee is 10-2 in its last 12 games. The Reds have lost eight of their last 11 home contests.
06-09-21	Bruins -130 v. Islanders		2-6	Loss	-130	16 h 40 m	Show
Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy may be a crybaby. But I do see the Bruins evening this series at 3-3 having lost the last two games. The oddsmaker does, too, making Boston a road favorite. The Islanders nipped the Bruins, 5-4, in Game 5 two days ago thanks to three power-play goals. Boston dominated, outshooting New York, 44-19, and controlling play for much of the game on the Islanders' side of the ice. The Bruins have taken 53 more shots than the Islanders during the series. A frustrated Cassidy was fined $25,000 for complaining about the Islanders getting more calls than his team. Perhaps the refs might subconsciously favor Boston a bit because of that. Certainly I'm not counting on that. But I do think Boston is going to play well here. So does Islanders coach Barry Trotz, who predicts the Bruins will produce their "A" game.
06-09-21	Mariners v. Tigers -116	Top	9-6	Loss	-116	17 h 45 m	Show
Casey Mize is here and the Mariners know it. Mize, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, has given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He's dropping way down in class here facing the Mariners after his last two starts were against the White Sox and Yankees. The Mariners saw Mize in Seattle last month - and he dominated them. Mize held Seattle to one earned run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. Detroit is a semi-respectable 14-15 at home. Seattle is 13-18 on the road. The Mariners had five players in their starting lineup last night batting .220 or under. Their team batting average is .208, worst in the majors. Chris Flexen pitches for Seattle. He has a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season. He's pitched much better at home. His road ERA is 8.10 in four starts.
06-09-21	Mets -138 v. Orioles		14-1	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Taijuan Walker versus Matt Harvey in a monster pitching mismatch that should carry with it a much higher price than this. Walker always has been a good pitcher. He just hasn't been healthy too much. But he is now and the results are a 2.17 ERA. He carries a 2.08 during his past three starts. Harvey shouldn't be in a big-league rotation. Much is being made of Harvey pitching against his former team. But that happened back on May 12 at Citi Field. The Mets roughed Harvey up for seven runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. Harvey carries a 3-6 record and 6.62 ERA on the season. The Orioles have been one of the worst home teams in the majors losing 20 of 31 games at Camden Yards.
06-08-21	Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5		109-112	Loss	-100	14 h 13 m	Show
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George just aren't great scorers. They're top defenders, too. The Clippers gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranked sixth in 3-point defense. LA held the Mavericks to an average of 98.5 points during the last four games of their recently concluded series. Utah is even better defensively. The Jazz rank in the top three in several major defensive categories, including fewest points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Clippers are likely to settle for a slow pace having had a short turnaround after going the full seven games with the Mavericks. That series ended two days ago. The Jazz are facing a rust factor. They haven't played in six days. Utah could be minus point guard Mike Conley, who averaged 17.4 points and 8.6 assists against the Grizzlies in the Jazz's last playoff series. Conley is dealing with a hamstring strain. The Clippers scored 126 points against the Mavericks in their Game 7. Dallas isn't the defense team Utah is. The Clippers also went with a smaller lineup against Dallas. That probably isn't going to be the case here where the Clippers will switch to a taller, slower lineup in order to combat 7-foot-1 Rudy Gobert and reserve center Derrick Favors.
06-08-21	Giants -129 v. Rangers	Top	9-4	Win	100	24 h 34 m	Show
Maybe the Giants are playing above their heads. Or maybe they are for real. All I know is San Francisco has the best record in baseball. The Rangers own the third-worst mark in the majors. Texas is 1-11 in its last 12 games. The Giants are 7-2 in their last nine games. They have won 10 of their past 11 road games. Alex Wood goes against journeyman Jordan Lyles. Wood is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA. He is 2-0 lifetime versus the Rangers with a 0.86 ERA in three career starts versus Texas. Lyles is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA. He is 4-5 career-wise against the Giants with a 5.31 ERA in 22 appearances, including 10 starts. Wood is my clear choice above Lyles, but this is an action play for me. I want the hot Giants against this bad and cold opponent especially when the line is reasonable like it is here. The Giants did suffer a major injury with Evan Longoria being put on the injured list with a shoulder strain. The good news for San Francisco is it expects to get back Brandon Belt. Tuesday Free Play A's minus 1 1/2 runs plus $1.09 (run line) hosting Diamondbacks Unless you're in the habit of laying monster juice, which I'm not, the only way to fade the Diamondbacks on the road is to play the run line. That's what I'm doing here with the A's. Arizona has lost a franchise-record 17 straight games on the road! The Diamondbacks have lost 29 of their past 35 overall games. Oakland is 4-1 in its last five games and was idle on Monday. The A's are 8-0 this season following a day off. The pitching matchup also lends itself to backing the A's. It's Arizona rookie Jon Duplantier versus Chris Bassitt. Duplantier has been talked about the past couple of seasons as a promising pitcher with a high ceiling. That hasn't materialized. Duplantier wasn't good at Triple-A Reno this year with a 7.71 ERA and his big league ERA is 9.35 in two starts. Duplantier last faced the Brewers this past Thursday and surrendered five runs in four innings. Bassitt has been very solid. Oakland is 9-1 in his 10 starts this year. Only once during his past eight starts has Bassitt walked more than one batter and that was just two.
06-07-21	Bucks +2 v. Nets	Top	86-125	Loss	-121	14 h 16 m	Show
No getting around it. The Bucks did not play well in Game 1 this past Saturday losing, 115-107, despite James Harden only playing less than a minute before suffering a hamstring injury. Joe Harris and Blake Griffin picked up some of Harden's scoring slack making a combined 9 of 18 from 3-point range. That's not likely to occur again. Harden is ruled out and the Bucks should shoot a lot better from beyond the arc than their 6-of-30 in Game 1. The Bucks also made only 58 percent of their free throws going 11-for-19. What the Bucks did right is bury the Nets with 72 points in the paint. Much of this inside damage was done by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Nets couldn't contain him as he scored 34 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the floor. The Bucks should shoot much better this time around. They ranked in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. There is no Harden. The Nets are vulnerable inside and can't stop Antetokounmpo. So look for Game 2 to go to the Bucks.
06-07-21	Bucks v. Nets OVER 233.5		86-125	Loss	-111	14 h 15 m	Show
Even though Game 1 finished well under the total. This series is about offense with two explosive teams. The Nets produced 115 points in Game 1 despite having James Harden for less than a minute. Harden won't play in this Game 2, but the Nets know that and have made adjustments. They were the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.6 points while rarely having Harden teamed up with fellow superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the same time. The Bucks were the only team to outscore the Nets during the season, averaging a league-best 120.1 points per game. Both team's defenses were below average ranking 21st and 22nd. Milwaukee dominated Brooklyn inside, producing 72 points inside the paint with Giannis Antetokounmpo making 16 of 24 shots from the floor. The Game 1 total went Under because the Bucks shot just 20 percent from 3-point range making 6-of-30. Milwaukee's free throw shooting was off, too. The Bucks made just 58 percent on 11-of-19. The Bucks were the fifth-best 3-point shooting team at 38.9 and made 76 percent of their free throws.
06-07-21	Marlins +135 v. Red Sox		3-5	Loss	-100	8 h 16 m	Show
Pablo Lopez is an underrated starter carrying a 2.82 ERA. The Red Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The situation isn't ideal either for Boston. The Red Sox return home for the first time since May 29 fat and happy having just completed their first three-game road sweep of the Yankees, their most hated rival, since 2011. The Red Sox nipped the Yankees, 6-5, in 10 innings in the Sunday night game. This was supposed to be a day off for Boston. But instead the Red Sox have to play this single makeup game against Miami because of a May 30 rainout. Boston hosts the Astros on Tuesday. The Red Sox may not have slugger J.D. Martinez. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. The Marlins have their confidence up after halting an eight-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory against the Pirates on Sunday. The Marlins usually are pesky. They lost five games by one or two runs during their recent losing skid. Miami will be facing Nick Pivetta, who is having a good season with a 6-1 record and 3.77 ERA. The Marlins are familiar with Pivetta, who used to pitch for the Phillies. Pivetta has a bad history against the Marlins with a 2-4 lifetime mark and 5.36 ERA in 11 appearances, including eight starts.
06-06-21	Jets +124 v. Canadiens		1-5	Loss	-100	12 h 59 m	Show
The Canadiens rode the momentum of upsetting the Maple Leafs after being down 3-1 in that series to upset the rusty Jets in Winnipeg in Game 1 of this series. Montreal won that game, 5-3, scoring an empty net goal during the final minute to account for the two-goal final. Still riding their momentum and steaming mad about Mark Scheifele's cheap shot of Jake Evans in Game 1, the Canadiens nipped the Jets, 1-0, in Game 2 despite being outshot. But with the scene shifting to Montreal, I see the Canadiens being a little fat-and-happy returning home as heroes while the Jets are in must-win mode. The series obviously has been very close. So I'm going to take a plus price with the Jets, who have been excellent in this role. They are 6-0 the past six times as underdogs. They've also won 11 of their last 15 road games. Montreal has failed to win six of the last eight times it was favored. Sunday Free Play Avalanche at Golden Knights Over 5 1/2 plus $1.09 I understand this is Stanley Cup hockey and that both teams' goalies are playing well. But I see this Game 4 of the Avalanche-Golden Knight series breaking the norm of the past two games where just five combined goals were scored. Colorado is the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.5 goals a game. The Avalanche also were No. 2 in shots on goal. Their top line of superstar Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen gets my vote as being the best line in the NHL They are going to be unleashed here since the Golden Knights have outplayed the Avalanche during most of the past two games. The Avalanche have produced at least three goals a game in 10 of their last 12 contests. They are averaging 4.57 goals in their seven Stanley Cup games. The Golden Knights are going to do their part to get this game to go Over, too. Las Vegas is the No. 3 scoring team in the league at 3.4 goals. The Golden Knights took the fourth-most shots on goal. Getting Max Pacioretty back from injury is huge for Las Vegas. He was the Golden Knights' leading goal scorer during the regular season, while averaging a point-per-game. This will be his third game in the lineup after missing the previous dozen contests. The Golden Knights should have scored more than two goals in Game 2, firing 31 shots on net during the last two periods and hitting the post three times. Las Vegas stayed on the assault in their 3-2 Game 3 victory with 43 shots on goalie Philipp Grubauer, who has held up well this season but who I don't consider an elite goaltender. While the Avalanche have a dominant first line, the Golden Knights are that rare hockey team with four solid lines. Their fourth line of William Carrier, Patrick Brown and Keegan Kolesar have managed 24 shots on goal during the last two games. Having the last say on line changes being the home team has allowed the Golden Knights to effectively mix-and-match getting needed edges.
06-06-21	Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8.5		2-4	Win	101	4 h 14 m	Show
The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats and the Braves lead the majors in homers. But this is too high of a total given the pitching matchup. Trevor Bauer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Max Fried is coming on after a slow start. There are three additional factors pointing to this total being too high. There's a slight wind blowing in, Larry Vanover is slated to be the home plate umpire and Sunday is traditionally the best day of the week for Unders. One reason is some starters being rested. The Under has cashed 13 of the 19 times the past two seasons when Vanover has been behind the plate for 68 percent.
06-06-21	Hawks v. 76ers -2.5	Top	128-124	Loss	-117	8 h 35 m	Show
I'm not expecting Joel Embiid to play. Nice bonus if he does, but I'm certainly not counting on that. The 76ers know how to win without him especially with adequate preparation time, which is the case here. The 76ers closed out the Wizards at home without Embiid. They beat Washington by 17 points despite not playing that well. Philadelphia is 32-7 at home. The Hawks are not a strong road club. Atlanta went 0-6 during its last six regular-season away contests versus opposing playoff teams, including a pair of blowout losses to the 76ers in late April. The 76ers won those two home games by an average of 33 points! Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to Philadelphia. The 76ers have steadily been building for this moment. The Hawks have done well to advance this far. However, they are young and lack playoff experience. They have not paid their playoff dues to oust the 76ers even if Embiid sits out this series opener. Atlanta's defense greatly improved when Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce. But the Hawks' defense isn't at the 76ers' top-six level. The 76ers aren't going to sacrifice much on the boards either without Embiid since they have Dwight Howard and Mike Scott to fill in those minutes.
06-05-21	Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5		107-115	Win	100	11 h 53 m	Show
Yes there will be four superstars on the court so perhaps the oddsmaker is justified in putting out a total this large. But this also is a playoff game, with defense and intensity at its highest, plus there is a rust factor. The Bucks haven't played in a week. The Nets last played five days ago. Milwaukee had the fifth-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. The Bucks held Miami to 96 points per game during their four-game sweep. That's 12 points below what the Heat averaged during the regular season. Jrue Holiday is an ace defender. He can neutralize James Harden. The Nets won't have Jeff Green. Sure Green isn't Harden, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant. Still, he's Brooklyn's fourth-leading scorer. Green provides continuity having played in 68 games, second-most on the Nets, and versatility. Green's absence could mean minutes for DeAndre Jordan, who is an Under bettor's best friend. Jordan is a tremendous shot-blocker who has no offensive game. His shooting range is about two feet. The Nets have stiffened their defense lately, holding foes to 109 points or fewer in five of the past seven games.
06-05-21	Dodgers -132 v. Braves		4-6	Loss	-132	12 h 27 m	Show
The Braves have never defeated Clayton Kershaw in 11 regular season tries and I don't see them ending that streak here. After a bumpy beginning, the Dodgers have gotten it together as expected going 16-6 during their last 22 games. LA is tough on the road winning 50 of its last 74 away contests for 68 percent. Kershaw has a 1.78 career ERA versus Atlanta. He's taking on Charlie Morton, who has shown regression with a 4.11 ERA. Morton has a 6.55 ERA against the Dodgers in two career starts versus them.
06-05-21	Bruins v. Islanders +131		1-4	Win	131	7 h 18 m	Show
Boston probably is the superior team here. But this is nearly last stand time for the Islanders, down 2-1 in the series and playing at home with Game 5 set for Boston. The Islanders showed their resilience and tenacity in taking out the Penguins. During this series, two of the three games have been decided in overtime. You know with the Islanders you're going to get a well-disciplined defensive effort and good coaching. New York is 23-9 in its last 32 home games. The Bruins also are unlikely to have one of their better defenseman, Brandon Carlo. He suffered a head injury in Game 3.
06-05-21	Rays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5	Top	3-0	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
Petco Park has been considered the premier pitching stadium in baseball. But the new Globe Life Park in Arlington, which opened last July, is challenging Petco as the best pitching park in the majors. Lefty Rich Hill is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. He goes for the Rays against Texas southpaw Kolby Allard. Hill has a 1.11 ERA during his last seven starts spanning 40 2/3 innings. He's struck out 46 batters during this span. Hill is backed by a Tampa Bay bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA in the AL. Allard is a former first-round draft pick of the Braves, who has pitched mainly in relief compiling a 3.38 ERA. He gave up two runs on two hits during his lone start against the Mariners on May 27. Tampa Bay is batting .219 versus lefties. The Rays rank 13th out of 15 American League teams in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS against left-handed pitching.
06-04-21	Avalanche v. Golden Knights +105		2-3	Win	105	12 h 42 m	Show
I don't expect the Golden Knights to beat the Avalanche in this Stanley Cup series, but I'm not expecting Las Vegas to get swept either. This is the Golden Knights' game to win, returning home to a full capacity of 18,000 fans down 0-2 in the series. The Golden Knights should have tied the series, but lost 3-2 in overtime to Colorado two days ago. Las Vegas outshot the Avalanche, 31-12, during the last two periods. The Golden Knights had three shots hit the post during the third period. Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson are overdue to produce points. Both are scoreless so far in the series. Las Vegas has a strong home ice advantage going 21-5-2 at T-Mobile Arena.
06-04-21	Clippers -136 v. Mavs	Top	104-97	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
It's not just the Zig/Zag and the Clippers being 8-2 ATS during their last 10 visits to Dallas. I like the Clippers because they have two proven superstars to the Mavericks' one. This has been a road series with the visitor covering each of the first five games. I believe the Clippers are the superior team and will prevail here. Luka Doncic is the Mavericks' lone reliable star and he's not 100 percent. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George give the Clippers two superstars to the Mavericks' one. Much credit to the feisty Mavericks for putting the Clippers on the brink of elimination with their, 105-100, Game 5 road victory as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. But the Clippers still had open looks and were aggressive in the paint. I'm not sold on the Mavericks' zone defenses. The Clippers can dent them. This bodes well for LA's chances in this Game 6.
06-04-21	Indians -112 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-112	17 h 9 m	Show
Break up the Orioles. They've won two in a row. They also had lost 14 straight games before then. Baltimore also has the worst home mark in the majors by far at 8-19. The price is cheap to back the road Indians here. The pitching matchup is Jean Carlos Mejia versus lefty Keegan Akin. It's the first big league start for Mejia and second start of the year for Akin. Mejia hasn't been scored on this season in five innings of relief. He's given up just one hit and one walk with seven strikeouts. Akin has a 4.80 ERA. The Indians are 8-2 in their past 10 road games when facing a lefty starter. But the pitching matchup isn't the reason I want Cleveland. This is an action play for me based on laying a low price with a far superior team. Friday Free Play Nationals plus $1.02 at Phillies Keep an eye on emerging superstar Juan Soto. He's coming on. Soto is a factor, but there are other reasons why I like the Nationals as an underdog to the Phillies. The pitching matchup is Max Scherzer versus Zack Wheeler. I like Wheeler, who is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA. But I like Scherzer better. The future Hall of Famer still is very good with a 2.34 ERA. He shouldn't have to deal with Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius, both of whom are expected to be out due to injuries. Scherzer is 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA in eight career starts with the Nationals at Philadelphia. The Phillies blasted the Reds, 17-3, in their last game. That was back on Tuesday, though. The Phillies have been idle since so they could be a little rusty. Prior to that massacre of the Reds, the Phillies were averaging a puny 2.1 runs in their past six games.
06-03-21	Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5	Top	113-100	Loss	-106	13 h 22 m	Show
The Under is 4-0-1 in this series. The lone push should have gone Under, too, but late fouls caused it to push. I don't see any reason not to believe this game won't go Under, too. It should being the sixth game of the series with the Lakers at home trailing, 3-2. The Lakers can't match the Suns' firepower with Anthony Davis either sidelined, or severely limited because of a groin injury. LA needs a supreme defensive effort. The Lakers certainly are capable of this having finished as the No. 2 defense in the league. The Under is 12-5 during the Lakers' last 17 home games. There's also a strong Under bias when these two teams have played in LA with the low side winning seven of the past nine times. The Suns are no slouch defensively either ranking seventh in the NBA. They have held the Lakers to an average of 97 points during the five games in the series. Davis isn't the only key player hurting. Chris Paul is dealing with a shoulder injury. So I'm expecting another slow-paced game with each team taking their time looking for the right shot, probing the defense. This is playoff basketball at it's most intense with the Lakers facing elimination and the Suns out to prove themselves. That means defense rules in this matchup.
06-03-21	Cubs v. Giants -123		2-7	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
This is a short price to get the Giants at home. San Francisco has the best record in baseball and is 15-8 at home. The Cubs are making their first West Coast trip of the season. They have a losing road mark on the season and have lost six of the past eight times in San Francisco. Chicago is 3-8 the past 11 times as a road 'dog, while the Giants have won 23 of the past 31 times they've been home chalk. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies, who has a 4.65 ERA, versus Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 3.56 ERA. I like DeSclafani better, but this is an action play for me. The Cubs haven't been on the road since May 27. Now they go against the team with the best mark in baseball.
06-03-21	Rangers v. Rockies -107		6-11	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
The Rangers have lost 14 straight road games. The price on the Rockies is extremely short. Nolan Ryan isn't pitching for Texas. Enough said? OK, here's some more. The Rangers have lost eight consecutive overall games. They've been on the road since May 24. The Rangers' finally return home following this game. So their minds and morale may not be fully focused. More? Texas has the fourth-worst record in baseball. Colorado is 8-2 in its last 10 home games and usually plays much better at Coors Field. The pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Austin Gomber. Foltynewicz is 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA. Gomber, a lefty, is 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA. Gomber is in outstanding form with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts with a 26-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio spanning 23 1/3 innings. He's also pitched well at hitter-friendly Coors with a 1.88 ERA. Texas is 17-40 the last 57 times it has faced a southpaw on the road.
06-02-21	Golden Knights v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		2-3	Loss	-110	18 h 47 m	Show
I certainly don't expect the Avalanche to score seven goals like they did in Game 1 of this series. But I do expect there will be at least six goals produced in this game. Sparked by arguably the top line in hockey - Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen - Colorado led the NHL in scoring at 3.5 goals a game. The Avalanche have scored 3 or more goals in 12 of their past 14 games. They are averaging 5.4 goals a game in five playoff games. MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen combined for five goals in Colorado's 7-1 opening game win. Las Vegas must prove it can stop them. The Golden Knights are no slouches either in the scoring column. They finished third in the NHL in goals per game at 3.4. Las Vegas has scored 3 or more goals in 10 of its last 15 games.
06-02-21	Rangers v. Rockies -104	Top	3-6	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
This is a great price to back the Rockies at home against a bad Rangers team that has lost seven in a row and 13 straight on the road. Colorado has won seven of its last nine games at Coors Field. The Rockies have won 69 percent of the past 98 times they've been a home favorite. The Rockies' home edge is enhanced with capacity increased to 70 percent, which could mean 35,000 fans in the stands. The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles versus Antonio Senzatela. I'm not a fan of Lyles, who is a journeyman and has a 5.79 ERA. His ERA was 7.02 last season. Lyles has been on five teams in the last five years. The Rangers' bullpen is short on depth due to injuries. Senzatela has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. He's pitched better at home than on the road. But this is an action play for me. I want the Rockies at home at this short price against a Rangers squad trying to halt a 13-game road losing skid.
06-02-21	Canadiens v. Jets -132		5-3	Loss	-132	15 h 13 m	Show
Perhaps the Jets will come out rusty. But I'd much rather have Winnipeg's situation than Montreal's here in this opening round series game. The Jets made quick work of the Oilers. Their reward is they've been idle for nine days. So they certainly will be rested. Yes, rust is a concern. But the Canadiens' are in a terrible spot having come back from a 3-1 series deficit to stun the Maple Leafs with a Game 7 victory two days ago. That rivalry series had to have drained the Canadiens. This will be their sixth game in 10 days. Montreal is 6-15 the last 21 times following a victory. Winnipeg went 6-3 against Montreal during the regular season.
06-01-21	Blazers v. Nuggets -115	Top	140-147	Win	100	19 h 27 m	Show
The Nuggets fell behind in their playoff series against the Jazz and Clippers last season. Denver won both of those series. The Nuggets find themselves down 2-1 to the Trail Blazers this season. I'm confident the Nuggets will win this home matchup to even the series after being embarrassed, 115-95, this past Saturday at Portland. Denver has had two full days to absorb that flat performance and being called "soft" by its coach, Michael Malone. The Nuggets have a much better defense than the Trail Blazers, have the deeper bench and should come out with super intensity and purpose. I certainly don't expect the Nuggets to hit just 34 percent of their shots from the floor like they did in Game 3, nor shoot 29.5 percent from 3-point range. Denver ranked 4th in field goal percentage during the regular season and eighth in 3-point shooting accuracy. Portland ranked 25th in defensive field goal percentage. Denver has won eight of its past 10 home games. This is the Nuggets' biggest home game of the season.
06-01-21	Rangers v. Rockies -111	Top	2-3	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
The Rockies should be fine returning to Coors Field where they have won six of their last eight games. German Marquez knows how to pitch there. Marquez is in good form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. The Rangers have lost 12 consecutive road games. They figure to have trouble at Coors Field. Dane Dunning gets the start for them. Dunning looked good early in the season, but he's fallen on hard times. He gave up seven runs on seven hits in just four innings this past Wednesday to the Angels. Dunning is 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA in five road starts this season.
06-01-21	Lightning v. Hurricanes -110		2-1	Loss	-110	5 h 8 m	Show
The Hurricanes are extremely tough at home winning 23 of the past 32 times. This includes a 3-1 playoff mark this season. But that one loss came this past Saturday, 2-1, to the Lightning in the opening game of their second-round Stanley Cup series. Carolina fired 38 shots on Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning hold a playoff experience edge and an edge in net because of Vasilevskiy. The Hurricanes, however, can match the Lightning's quickness and speed and also have the necessary depth. This is a very even series and I don't see the Hurricanes losing twice in a row at home.