Chris Archer is on his way to a 20-lose season and has shown no signs of reverting back to last season's All-Star form. His ERA hasn't been under 4.00 since his second start and he's given up 20 homers after surrendering 19 last year. Archer is 0-6 in his last seven starts.
Archer has allowed four runs or more in five of his last six starts. His biggest trouble has come on the road where he's 3-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Now he's pitching in the best hitter's park in the majors against a foe that ranks third in runs and batting average. The Rays are a bad grass team losing 22 of the past 30 times they've played on a natural surface.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in runs and 27th in batting average. The Rays have scored less than five runs in 11 of their last 15 games. They have a losing record versus lefties and are going against southpaw Jorge De La Rosa. 
De La Rosa has turned his season around so his season ERA should be discounted. De La Rosa has turned in six straight quality starts. He has a history of pitching well at Coors Field, where he's allowed just one run in his last 15 innings there. He is 3-0 this season with 1.93 ERA in day games. 

It's easy to rip the Twins. Sure they've been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But they have won six of their last 10 and if given 1 1/2 runs would be 15-4 in their last 19 games.
What makes the Twins attractive here is a chance to go against Anibal Sanchez, who is 5-10 with a 6.75 ERA. Whatever talent Sanchez once possessed is gone. He's only in the Tigers' rotation out of desperation because Jordan Zimmerman and Daniel Norris are each injured. Sanchez has surrendered 12 earned runs during his two July starts spanning 8 1/3 innings. 
Tommy Milone, Sanchez's mound opponent, is in much better form winning his past two starts allowing three earned runs in 11 innings. Milone is 3-1 lifetime versus the Tigers in seven outings with a 3.86 ERA. 

I don't see the Giants getting it done with Jake Peavy pitching in band box Fenway Park. San Francisco hasn't played at Fenway since 2007. Peavy knows Fenway, though, from his days in the American League. He has a 4.47 ERA in 14 starts at Fenway. 

Peavy needs a spacious park to pitch well in. He's been fortunate to have played for the Padres and now the Giants. He's not the same pitcher, though, on the road particularly at hitter's parks such as Fenway. Peavy is 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Giants have lost 14 of Peavy's past 20 road outings. 
San Francisco is 5-22 in its last 27 away contests versus a foe with a winning record. 
Peavy has to face the major's top run producing team as Boston averages a league-best 5.5 runs per game. 
The Giants' offense is going to have trouble matching that down three starters - Hunter Pence, Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. 
Boston has won its last four home games and is 7-2 this month at Fenway. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Rick Porcello's last 11 starts. Porcello hasn't lost in more than two months. He is 8-0 this season when pitching at Fenway.  

This is a huge series for the Royals if they want to make a run in the AL Central. Kansas City has yet to lose to the Indians at home in three meetings this season. 
Indians starter Corey Kluber carries a big reputation, but it's a mistake to make the Royals a home 'dog here. KC has won nearly 70 percent of its games at Kauffman Stadium this season. The Royals have defeated Kluber the past five times they've faced him at home. This includes a 9-4 win on June 15. Kluber gave up eight runs (five earned) in five innings in that loss. 
Kluber tailed off last year from his outstanding 2014 season and he's been worse this season with a 3.61 ERA. Kluber also hasn't pitched in nine days for the Indians. His career ERA is 4.16 when throwing on six or more days of rest. 
Kluber also will have a new catcher for the first time this season as Yan Gomes injured his shoulder on Sunday. The Indians activated catcher Roberto Perez, who has caught just nine innings during a minor league rehab assignment after undergoing thumb surgery in May. Kluber entered this year with a 3.88 ERA when Perez has been his catcher. 
Royals starter Edinson Volquez has been better at home where he's 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA. That ERA would be much lower if it weren't for one bad outing against the Astros last month when he was lit up for 11 earned runs in one inning. Volquez has a 1.54 ERA the two times this season when he's pitched with six or more days of rest. 
Volquez is backed by one of the strongest bullpens in baseball. 

This is a huge game for the Yankees with a decision looming if they want to keep playing for this season, or trade off their outstanding relief pitchers. I certainly respect Boston's top-ranked offense. But the Yankees have their ace, Masahiro Tanaka, going plus they won't hesitate to employ their Big Three star relief pitchers - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
Tanaka is pitching on six day's rest. That's important because he's 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA when pitching on more than his normal four days rest. The under has cashed the past six times Tanaka has faced AL East teams. 
The Red Sox have strengthened their bullpen trading for Brad Ziegler. They have their ace, David Price, on the mound, too. Price is pitching well with a 2.82 ERA in his last three starts with 30 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings during this span. The under has cashed in eight of Price's last nine starts. The left-handed Price can neutralize the Yankees' left-handed bats taking away their short right field fence while forcing Joe Girardi to stack his lineup with right-handed batters. 
Wind isn't a factor and second-year umpire Carlos Torres, scheduled to be behind the plate, has proven neutral on an over/under bias. 

There's nothing wrong with St. Louis' offense  - fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in homers - and now the Cardinals have a strong pitching matchup edge with a rejuvenated Adam Wainwright drawing Tom Koehler.

The buy sign is on with Wainwright as he's returned to ace status holding the Brewers and Pirates to a combined one run in his last two starts spanning 14 innings. Wainwright tied his season high in strikeouts against the Pirates with nine. 

Wainwright has a good post-All-Star history (50-28 with a 3.05 ERA) and is 4-2 with a 2.33 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in eight starts.  

Koehler historically is worse on the road and that's held up this season with a 4.72 away ERA compared to 4.22 ERA at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career WHIP at 1.56 and a 7.56 lifetime ERA versus St. Louis in three starts. Koehler is vulnerable to the Cardinals' power bats, too. He didn't allow a homer in his last start, but surrendered four during his previous three outings. 

The Marlins are 0-7 the past seven times Koehler has started versus an above .500 opponent. 

All of this helps make this my Game of the Week. 

Question: Who is the Royals' best starter? I'd go with Danny Duffy. He's made 11 starts since becoming a part of the Royals' starting rotation and gone 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Kansas City is 8-3 in Duffy's starts this season. The key for Duffy is better control. He has a 23-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts.
Duffy has built up his stamina, too, going into the seventh inning during his last three starts. Kansas City has the stronger bullpen and could get back closer Wade Davis from the DL today.  
Mike Pelfrey has a 5.35 career ERA in seven starts versus the Royals. Pelfrey actually is pitching better of late. But at 32 he is who he is - a fringe starter who is lucky to have a rotation start. Pelfrey has a 4.58 ERA on the season and a fastball that couldn't break glass. Pelfrey doesn't go deep into games either. He's yet to pitch past the seven inning this season.
Note, too, that the Tigers will be without Justin Upton. He's on the bereavement list.  

Yes, there's a certain risk in getting behind Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. He can be a turnover machine, but he's also passed for 933 yards, completed better than 71 percent of his throws and has five touchdown passes in three games. Masoli is highly mobile, too. Montreal has played decently on defense, but hasn't faced a quarterback who can operate sideline to sideline like Masoli can. 
Montreal has a number of key injuries with the latest being quarterback Kevin Glenn apparently out due to an inflamed left eye. That leaves the Alouettes' offense in the hands of untested Rakeem Cato. So not only do the Alouettes have to make do with Cato, but they remain without their starting center while breaking in new receivers. 
Road teams have fared extremely well during the first three weeks of the season entering this Week 4 covering 83 percent. Hamilton should be in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two straight home games. The Tiger-Cats are 1-0 on the road beating Toronto by 22 points as an underdog. 
That was the 12th time in its last 16 tries that Hamilton has covered on the road. Montreal has failed to cover in its last four home contests. 

This would be a much better matchup for the Mets if Steven Matz were healthy, Yoenis Cespedes was able to play and there wasn't such gloom around the team with the recent news about Matt Harvey being out for the season and Noah Syndergaard possibly dealing with a serious injury.
Matz is dealing with elbow discomfort. It's obviously affected his effectiveness. New York is 0-7 during Matz's last seven starts. His ERA during this span is 4.58. Matz will have to deal with hot-hitting Daniel Murphy, who is batting .438 with nine extra base hits and 19 RBI's in 12 games against the Mets this season. 
Gio Gonzalez also has been going through tough times, but he had a quality outing in his last start and has a strong history of pitching well at Citi Field with a 7-1 record and 1.53 ERA in 12 career starts there. The Nationals are 9-2 during Gonzalez's last 11 road starts versus the Mets. 
The Nationals are back on track winning 10 of their last 14 and have a healthy bullpen now. 

Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. 
The Padres also are 11-7 during their past 18 overall games. The Dodgers are 6-11 in their last 17 games if giving up 1 1/2 runs.
I like the way San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is developing. He has one of the league's highest ground ball rates during the last month and is coming off a six-inning start against the Diamondbacks allowing just two earned runs with five strikeouts and no walks. That was at Chase Field, too, which is far more challenging to pitchers than Dodgers Stadium. 
Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This only will be his second start of the season. McCarthy has a lifetime 4.82 ERA with the Dodgers. LA is without injured outfielder Joc Pederson and its bullpen carries a heavy fatigue rating after Scott Kazmir went just three innings last night. 

This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent.
Saskatchewan surrendered just 186 passing yards and 66 rushing yards to Toronto in its lone game this season. However, the Rough Riders lost because of turnovers - including a fumble return brought back for a touchdown - and bad special teams play. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant looked good in the loss completing 31 of 48 throws for 310 yards and a touchdown. 
Look for Coach Chris Jones to clean that up. You know the Rough Riders are going to be tough under Jones, who knows the Eskimos having coached them to the Grey Cup last season before leaving for Saskatchewan this season along with his coaching staff. 
Edmonton also lost in its lone game this season. The Eskimos really appeared to be missing Jones as they gave up 45 points to Ottawa. The Eskimos not only are minus Jones, one of the top defensive minds in the CFL, but also are in heavy rebuilt mode at linebacker and in the secondary. 

The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. 
Atlanta has the worst offense and worst record in the majors. The Braves are 9-22 versus southpaws. This is a kill spot for the White Sox so I'm going to lay a 1 1/2 runs at considerably reduced juice. Matt Wisler has shown some promise, but he's far from Sale's class and is backed by a bad bullpen that also carries a high fatigue rating. 
Chicago is 15-3 in Sale's past 18 starts. The White Sox are 8-1 in Sale's past nine home starts and 8-0 in his last eight interleague starts. 
The White Sox are playing well winning seven of 10, including their past five. 

Starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jimmy Nelson are pitching better and both team's offenses are down because of missing players.
The Cardinals are minus injured Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss, both of whom are left-handed and would have likely started against the right-handed Nelson.  
Nelson was outstanding during April and May. Then he had a down period, but has come back giving up just four runs in his last three starts. He's backed by one of the most underrated bullpens in the majors. 

Wacha has allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last five starts and that was three runs against the Royals. The Brewers no longer have Aaron Hill, who they traded to the Red Sox on Thursday. Hill's departure weakens Milwaukee's offense at third base. 

I understand the Rays are 3-19 in their last 22 games. But I don't care if they were 0-22. The oddsmaker opened Boston - with Sean O'Sullivan on the mound - a favorite against Chris Archer. That's enough for me to take Tampa Bay. 
Archer is displaying signs of finally coming around working 5 2/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday. The Rays have their closer, Alex Colome, back, too. Colome has been outstanding with a 1.71 ERA and 19 saves.
The Rays have beaten Boston seven of the past nine times and are 5-1 in their last six games at Fenway Park. 
But fading O'Sullivan is my main handicapping factor. The journeyman, with a career-mark of 13-23 and 5.99 ERA, shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But the Red Sox are desperate to shore up their back end so O'Sullivan is getting another chance. 

I'm always attracted getting a plus price with the superior starting pitcher. That's the case here with Drew Pomeranz facing lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. 
Pomeranz is enjoying his breakthrough season with excellent command now of his highly effective curveball. He has a 2.65 ERA and has held foes to one earned run or fewer in half of his 16 starts. 
Ryu is making his first start since 2014. He's been on a long comeback trail after suffering a torn labrum, which cost him all of last season. He was 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA in eight minor league starts. Ryu is going to be on a pitch count and the Dodgers' middle relief carries a high fatigue rating. 
The Padres are 14-10 versus southpaws and playing well winning 10 of their last 16. They hit much better away from Petco Park, too. San Diego is averaging 6.7 runs during its last nine away games. 

I don't see the Cardinals getting swept at home especially with Pittsburgh throwing Jeff Locke, who has a 7.16 road ERA in nine away starts. Locke also has a 4.04 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals in nine starts. Pittsburgh is 2-8 the past 10 times Locke has pitched on the road versus an above .500 foe. 

Pittsburgh's bullpen has been pitching well, but carries a high fatigue rating having logged 20 1/3 innings during the last five days. 
Cardinals starter Jamie Garcia has a 0.57 ERA in six career games against the Pirates. The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 division games. 

I'm going to ride the hot Astros, winners of 28 of their last 39 games. Houston starter Mike Fiers is pitching his best ball going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts. The righty is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA during his past three home starts. 
The Mariners have lost 14 of their last 17 road games, including a seven-game road losing streak when facing a right-hander. 
Seattle starter Wade LeBlanc has been far better than expected during his first two starts for Seattle posting a 1.50 ERA. But LeBlanc is a journeyman with a career ERA above 4.50. He's been helped pitching both of those games at pitcher-friendly Safeco Park. Now he faces the Astros, who rank in the top 10 in homers, at a hitter's park. 

So far Sonny Gray has yet to demonstrate his stud form of previous seasons, but he's not as bad as his overall numbers show. He's rounding back into shape after being out with a strained trapezius, which affected his early season performance. Gray posted a respectable 3.23 ERA in June and hasn't walked more than one batter in any of his six starts since returning from his injury. He's facing a below-average Twins offense that ranks 19th in runs scored. 
Ervin Santana doesn't get a lot of respect in the marketplace, but he's been pitching well yielding just five earned runs in his last three starts. Santana owns a strong history, too, versus the A's with a 15-7 lifetime mark and 2.10 ERA. 
The A's rank 24th in runs scored. They have not scored more than four runs during any of their last five games. 
There are other factors that point to an under, too, besides the pitching. 
There is a fatigue factor for the batters because last night's game didn't start until 9:50 p.m. local time due to nearly a three-hour weather delay. The game then lasted more than three hours. Now we have an early start today as this is a get away day for both teams. That may also mean key hitters could be rested. 
The weather forecast is for a slight wind that will be blowing in. Fielding Culbreth is slated to be behind home plate. He's a huge under umpire. He's had more unders than overs every year since 2011. The under is 79-53 (60 percent) during the past five years when Culbreth has been the home plate ump. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been super on the road this season with a 1.32 ERA in seven starts and is 16-7 with a 2.84 ERA during his career when pitching on five day's rest, which is the case here. Tanaka is backed by perhaps the best relief trio in baseball - Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
I'm a fan of White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon. He has better stuff than his record and ERA show. The under has cashed six of the last eight times Rodon has pitched at home. 
The Yankees are top-heavy from the left side, which hurts them against southpaws. They rank 27th in OPS versus lefties. The Yankees also have hit 19 fewer homers on the road and their road OPS is .658 compared to .746 at home. 

Rangers starter AJ Griffin is making just his third start since coming off the DL. He's been averaging less than five innings since returning to the starting rotation and does not figure to last long against Boston, the highest-scoring team in the majors. The Rangers' bullpen has a heavy fatigue rating throwing 25 innings during the past six games with a 9.72 ERA. 
Bostons starter David Price has a lifetime ERA of 5.78 versus the Rangers, who have scored five or more runs in nine of their last 12 games. 
Joe West is slated to be behind home plate. The over has covered 66 percent of the time West has been behind the plate during the past three years going 53-27. 

The Mets have a rested bullpen, something the Marlins don't have, and draw Miami traveling to play in a day game after playing in the late Sunday game at night. 
Marlins starter Tom Koehler is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter who pitches worse on the road. He has a 5.40 career ERA in eight outings at Citi Field, too. The Marlins are 0-6 the past six times Koehler has pitched against an above .500 team.
The Marlins could be without injured first baseman Justin Bour, who is tied for second on the team in homers with 15.  
Matt Harvey is primed for a big start after his last start was reduced to just 3 2/3 innings because of a rain delay. The Mets have been especially strong on Monday winning 22 of the past 26 times. 

The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco all ailing. San Francisco also is minus starting third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joe Panik. The Giants carry a high bullpen fatigue rating and over-the-hill Jake Peavy is the starting pitcher. 
The 35-year-old Peavy has a 4.94 day time ERA and 5.33 ERA on the season. He's coming off a poorly pitched game against the A's where he couldn't get out of the fourth inning. 
Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has a misleading 0-2 record. He's four-for-four in quality starts and has a 2.66 ERA. 

James Shields is enduring a terrible season. But he did pitch well in his last start holding the Twins to one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts and one walk at home this past Wednesday. 
CC Sabathia has cooled off with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts. He's given up 21 hits and six walks during this span pitching 17 1/3 innings.
The White Sox have the better record and are home. The Yankees are traveling from San Diego and are not helped by this being a day game. New York is 2-10 the past 12 times they've been on the road playing a foe with a winning record.  

I'm willing to lay a short road road price on promising Chad Green against Andrew Cashner, a proven underachiever who has been battling injuries much of the season.
Green's 1.54 ERA leads the International League. I'm expecting a better performance from Green now that he's had a taste of the big leagues. 
The Yankees have the stronger offense and far better relief pitching. 
The Padres have been terrible in day games going 6-20. That includes eight losses in 10 games at Petco Park. 

I'm not buying into a total of less than eight in a pitching matchup of Chad Bettis against Scott Kazmir. 
There is good reason why Bettis has a 5.84 ERA while Kazmir's ERA sits at 4.67. They are below average starters. Bettis has a 4.58 lifetime ERA against the Dodgers. Kazmir has a 5.73 ERA versus the Rockies. 
Jim Wolf is slated to be the home plate ump. The over is 15-7-3 the last 25 times he's been behind the plate. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he once was and Jimmy Nelson struggles on the road and is coming off a horrible June where he was 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Nelson has a 5.66 road ERA and a 9.51 career ERA versus St. Louis in six appearances. 
Wainwright has a 7.15 day ERA and the Cardinals' bullpen is vulnerable at the closer spot. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Wainwright has faced the Brewers. 
Sean Barber is one of the better over umps and there is a strong chance of rain, which could mean extra innings for the bullpens. 

I believe this could be the top value play of the season so far getting the Orioles as an opening underdog against Seattle journeyman southpaw Wade LeBlanc. 
Baltimore just set a major league record for homers in a month with 56 in June. The Orioles rank fifth in runs scored and are first in home runs. They are 13-8 on the season versus lefty starters, including 5-1 during the past six instances. 
It's an understatement to say the Orioles are swinging hot bats. They have scored 85 runs in last 11 games, an average of 7.7 runs per game. Now they draw LeBlanc, who is making his second big league start in three years. The Mariners were desperate for a starter with Felix Hernandez on the DL and Nate Karns struggling. So Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto acquired LeBlanc from the Blue Jays. 
This is what Dipoto said before LeBlanc's first start for Seattle this past Friday: "He's 31 years old, he's been out there before. He knows the routine. He might not pitch well, but he won't go out there and panic."
This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement Nor should it be given than LeBlanc is 21-33 lifetime with a 4.46 ERA. This is LeBlanc's fifth big league team. LeBlanc pitched in Japan last season where he had a 4.23 ERA. 
LeBlanc earned this start by throwing six shutout innings against the Cardinals last Friday. Credit to LeBlanc for that surprising performance. But he is who he is and that's a fringe big-leaguer, a desperation, fill-in starter with a proven ERA of near 4.50. The Orioles should eat him up. The Mariners have a below average bullpen with a shaky closer carrying a high fatigue rating. 
Baltimore is playing well, too, having won seven of its last eight. Seattle is 4-8 in its last 12. 
There are reasons why the oddsmaker opened Seattle a favorite, though, chief among them is the Mariners being home and the Orioles going with Kevin Gausman, who has been more about potential than production. 
But I see a buy sign hereon Gausman coming off a 5-0 victory against the Rays this past Saturday at home where he allowed just four hits - all singles - with seven strikeouts and no walks in 7 2/3 innings. Gausman has a 3.93 ERA and is due for some good luck. His last four road starts have come at tough hitter's parks against tough offenses - the Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros. 
The last time Gausman pitched at a more friendly pitcher's park was five road starts ago when he allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and a walk against the Angels. Now he gets to pitch here at Safeco Field, one of the better pitcher's parks in the majors. Gausman is 25 and talented. The same can't be said for LeBlanc. 

Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. 
The oddsmaker opened the Stampeders a little light because Calgary was upset by BC last Saturday, 20-18. That was the Stampeders' first season-opening loss since 2011 and should prove a wake-up call especially after blowing an 11-point second half lead. 
The last time Calgary lost two games in a row in a season was early in 2012. That's the longest streak in Canadian pro football history. Calgary is 21-6 ATS following a loss.  
Winnipeg is a bottom-three team that looked bad in losing at home to Montreal to start the season last week. Drew Willy was sacked five times and didn't look good. The Blue Bombers are averaging just 17.2 points during their last four games. So their poor offensive performance wasn't a surprise. 

The line has come down enough to where there is value backing Madison Bumgarner. He's among the best pitchers in baseball. Dillon Overton should be a much higher priced 'dog. The Giants are 17-5 the past 22 times Bumgarner has faced a sub .500 foe on the road. 

Early activity in the marketplace is overlooking that Overton won his big league debut despite giving up three homers to the Angels. The Giants have won 21 of their last 29 road games. 

I'm going to continue to ride the Indians and a back-in-top-form Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland has outscored its opponents by 51 runs in winning its last 12 games. Carrasco has regained his elite status with three straight quality performances, posting a 1.61 ERA during this span. 
The Indians are 11-4 in Carrasco's past 15 road starts. Carrasco has a 1.95 road ERA this season. He won't have to deal with injured Jose Bautista. 
Toronto is playing its first home game following a six-game road trip. The Blue Jays just finished a wild series against the Rockies at Coors Field.  
Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey has struggled at home with a 5.36 ERA this season. Toronto is 0-8 during his last eight starts at home. 

I can see the Yankees owning a pitching edge in every inning. A.J. Griffin is making just his second start since coming off the DL. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game for precautionary reasons and the Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Closer Sam Dyson also carries a fatigue rating. 

Yankees starter Michael Pineda has metrics that show better than his won/lost and ERA do. He's due for a strong game - and he's backed by the Yankees' trio of elite relief pitchers. 

The underdog Brewers should have beaten the Dodgers last night and are in a better spot to pull the upset today facing rookie Brock Stewart in his big league debut. 
The Dodgers have been going through lots of starting pitchers because of an abundance of injuries. Stewart will be their ninth different starter. He opened the season in Single A ball. 
Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a much safewr bet. He's not fancy, but he does the job. Milwaukee is 8-2 in his 10 starts. The Brewers have their three best relief pitchers fresh, while Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen has worked the past two days. 
The Dodgers could be missing banged-up center fielder Joc Pederson. 

The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games.
The Diamondbacks have lost four in a row. They have been terrible at Chase Field dropping 27 of 40. This includes losing eight of the past nine times against a foe with a losing road mark. 
Phillies starter Zach Eflin is pitching better giving up three runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Diamondbacks starter Archie Bradley is 1-2 at home with a 5.79 ERA. The Phillies just faced him on June 19. The Diamondbacks' bullpen is in disarray, weak in middle relief and closer Brad Ziegler has blown two of his last three save opportunities. 

Two below average starters backed by mediocre bullpens puts me on the over here. 
Scott Feldman, demoted earlier to the bullpen, gets to make a spot start here for Houston in place of Lance McCullers. Don't expect much from Feldman, who last started a game on April 24. He is 0-2 with a 4.58 as a starter this season. 
If Lincecum isn't washed up, he's close to it. The over has cashed in 17 of the Angels' last 22 home games.
The weather forecast is for winds blowing out to right at 10-13 mph. 

There are several key under-the-radar spots here that clearly point to the home underdog Brewers.
Milwaukee is 21-18 at Miller Park. The Dodgers have a losing road record and just finished a four-game road trip against the Pirates that ended on Monday with a hard-played come-from-behind, one-run Dodgers victory. The Brewers were idle on Monday. The Brewers should be extremely fresh as they've been been idle three of the past eight days. 
On paper, it appears the Dodgers have the pitching edge with rookie southpaw Julio Urias facing Chase Anderson. Urias held the Brewers scoreless in five innings on June 17 allowing just two hits and striking out eight. That was at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, though. 
The 19-year-old Urias is 0-2 with a 6.92 road ERA in three away starts. The Brewers are 14-10 versus lefties. Their two best power-hitters, Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, are right-handed. Milwaukee is on a seven-game winning streak against left-handed starters at home. 
The Dodgers are limiting Urias' innings. So he doesn't figure to go deep into the game even if he's pitching well. LA has very vulnerable middle relief and closer Kenley Jansen threw 23 pitches on Monday in getting a four-out save.  
The right-handed Anderson is 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA. Those are bad numbers. But those figures turn into a more respectable 3-2 with a 3.74 ERA when pitching at Miller Park. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a righty.  
Anderson is pitching on extra rest and is backed by a very good and underrated bullpen where the last three innings can be controlled by Will Smith (2.13 ERA), Tyler Thornburg (2.84 ERA) and closer Jeremy Jeffress (2.67 ERA). 

Nothing fancy here. I just want the red-hot Indians - winners of 10 in a row - with Corey Kluber on the mound against the Braves. 
Atlanta has the worst home record in the majors at 11-30. The Braves are pitching Matt Wisler, who is 1-5 with a 4.45 ERA at Turner Field. 
Kluber is coming on and is pitching on extra rest. He is 10-2 with a 2.30 ERA in Interleague play. The Braves have never faced him. 

It's easy to understand why the oddsmaker has put up such a high total for this matchup at Coors Field. The Blue Jays rank third in homers and there have been six straight overs at Coors with the average combined run total in these last six games being 15.6 runs. The Rockies are the third-highest scoring team in the majors and rank fifth in homers.
But there is much to like about going under starting with the wind blowing in at about 10 mph. Both teams have their best starting pitchers going - Marco Estrada versus Jon Gray. 
Estrada has gone six-plus inning allowing five or fewer hits in 11 straight games. He leads Toronto with a 2.70 ERA. The under is 22-7-1 in Estrada's last 30 starts. 
The Rockies are likely to be missing their starting middle infield of DJ LeMahieu and Trevor Story. Both were injured Sunday. LeMahieu is batting a team-best .327 and Story has hit 19 homers. There is a huge drop-off to their weak-hitting replacements. 
The Blue Jays, remember too, are minus injured Jose Bautista. 
Gray is the Rockies' most promising pitcher. He had a streak of five quality starts in a row until he left with arm fatigue during his past start. He's been cleared for action here

After seeing the lineups - and who the Dodgers are resting - I'm involved with Pittsburgh. Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson are all not in LA's starting lineup.

Francisco Liriano is having a down season, but is 5-0 the past five times facing the Dodgers. The Pirates have stocked their lineup with righties against Scott Kazmir. 

The Pirates also have defeated the Dodgers the past eight times at home.

The Giants are an above average hitting team and they draw Aaron Nola, who is in a major funk. He has a 15.83 ERA in his last three starts. Asked about this Nola said, "I'm trying to figure something out." Note that he said trying rather than having figured it out. 
Nola hasn't lasted more than four innings in each of his past three starts. So there's a very good chance that the Phillies' vulnerable middle relief, down several relievers, could see extended action. 
Giants starter Johnny Cueto is a stud - against just about every team except the Phillies. He is 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Phillies. 

I'm not sold on the Astros pulling off a road sweep of the Royals. Ian Kennedy is tough at home with a 2.30 ERA. He also is 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA in three career starts versus Houston. 
The Royals are an impressive 25-13 the past two years as a home 'dog. They have Alex Gordon back from a broken wrist. Gordon played for the first time in 30 games on Saturday and hit a homer and double. 
The Astros are 11 games under .500 the past 61 times they've been road chalk. Doug Fister has been doing an excellent job for Houston, but he's a middle-of-the-rotation type. Eric Hosmer is 10-for-26 lifetime against Fister. 

Chris Sale. I want him going for me in this matchup and the price is acceptable enough. Sale is an elite pitcher and he's having one of his finest seasons. The White Sox are 12-3 this season with Sale on the mound. Chicago has won seven of the last eight times Sale has pitched at home. 
Sale has a 2.25 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in four starts. 
The flip side is fading a struggling Marcus Stroman, who has a 7.89 ERA this month. Stroman has yielded six or more runs in four of his last seven starts. 

Take the Padres out of Petco Park and match them against a southpaw starter and San Diego's offense comes alive. The Padres have scored the third-most runs versus lefties this season and rank in the top four in batting average against them at .281.
The Padres are playing at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park today - and facing lefty Brandon Finnegan. San Diego has scored 32 runs in his last four away matchups. The over has cashed in eight of San Diego's last nine games. 
San Diego is pitching Drew Pomeranz, who is regressing after a hot start. He's 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts. Pomeranz allowed three homers in his last start - and that was pitching at Petco Park, the opposite of Great American Ball Park. 
San Diego's bullpen is far from steady, while the Reds have the worst relief pitching in the National League. 

Carlos Martinez is having an outstanding month, but he's now facing a lineup that includes a DH. The Mariners also have hit the second-most homers in the majors and are No. 6 in runs scored. 
But the major part of this handicap to the over is journeyman Wade LeBlanc starting for Seattle and the Mariners' train wreck of a bullpen that also has fatigue issues. 
The Cardinals are No. 2 in runs scored. They should have no problem putting up their share of runs against LeBlanc, who carries a 21-33 lifetime record with a 4.47 ERA having pitched for five different teams. This is what Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto was quoted as saying about LeBlanc after acquiring him from Toronto because the Mariners have a cluster injury problem with their starting rotation: "He's 31 years old, he's been out there before. He knows the routine. He might not pitch well, but he won't go out there and panic."
Not exactly a ringing endorsement. 

These teams are familiar with each other having just recently played a preseason game in which there were fewer than 50 points scored. 
Winnipeg upgraded its defense during the preseason particularly in the defensive line and at linebacker. 
Montreal has a strong defense led by defensive end John Bowman, who led the CFL with 19 sacks last year. The Alouettes have weapons, but quarterback Kevin Glenn is 37 and doesn't have a solid backup. The Alouettes also have a young, untested offensive line that will be missing star tackle Josh Bourke and injured center Luc Brodeur-Jourdain. Those are two key missing pieces. 
There also are a number of strong trends that point to an under in this matchup. Montreal has gone below the total in 18 of its last 21 games played in June. The Alouettes also are 16-6 to the under in their past 22 away contests. Winnipeg is 6-1-1 to the under in its last eight home games and only has gone above the total just four times during its last 16 overall games. 

I'm not expecting much from these two starting pitchers. They aren't backed by strong bullpens either.

Tim Lincecum isn't going to fool the A's in his second start of the season while Kendall Graveman has a lifetime 4.34 ERA and a history of not going deep into games. His metrics are far from impressive. He hasn't finished the fifth inning in eight of his 13 starts this season.

Jon Niese may be the definition of average, but he's way above average in day games with a 1.80 ERA. He also pitches better at home and has a 2.51 career ERA versus the Giants. Niese rates an edge on Giants' rookie Albert Suarez. The Pirates also have a rested closer, something the Giants don't. 
Suarez has a 5.52 road ERA in three appearances, including two starts. He's coming off a start in which he yielded three home runs in 4 2/3 innings on the road against the Rays this past Saturday. 
The Pirates have a winning record at home. San Francisco is 7-18 the past 25 times when playing on the road against an opponent that has an above .500 home record.
The Giants also aren't as strong without injured outfielder Hunter Pence. 

It isn't often you win a baseball totals play by 16 runs, but that was the case on Tuesday cashing with the over in the Phillies-Twins matchup in which there were 24 runs scored. The over is now 14-1-1 in the Twins' last 16 games.
If a team only loses once in its last 16 games it's big news. But if it's a totals streak it escapes major scrutiny setting up a fair price to ride a hot streak. 
I see no reason not to play on the over again with the Twins. Minnesota's bullpen is a disaster area, while the Phillies relievers aren't pitching way above their heads like earlier in the season and have fatigue issues having not had a day off since June 9. 
The starting pitchers aren't good either - Adam Morgan versus Kyle Gibson. 
Morgan is 1-6 with a 6.49 ERA. He's surrendered 10 homers in his last five starts. The Twins are swinging hot bats scoring 27 runs in their last three games. 
Gibson is 0-5 with a 6.06 ERA. The right-hander has just two more strikeouts than walks during his past six starts. The over has cashed 12 of the past 15 times the Phillies have faced a right-hander during interleague road competition.  

Both starters are in bad form. Aaron Nola has given up 10 earned runs on 15 hits in his last two starts spanning less than seven innings. Twins starter Tyler Duffey is just plain bad. He's 0-3 with an 8.55 ERA during his last four starts. Duffey has been bad at home, too, with a 6.67 ERA in five home outings. 
The Phillies have a better offense than they've shown and the Twins are on a huge 13-1-1 run to the over. 
The Twins' bullpen has been a disaster area, while the Phillies' bullpen has regressed and is facing fatigue issues. 

No, you can't have a total this low when Jeff Locke is one of the starting pitchers.
Locke has a 5.92 ERA. He's given up 18 runs on 20 hits and four walks during his past two starts spanning only 8 2/3 innings. The over has cashed in each of his last nine home stars. 
Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitcher and in excellent form. But he's allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five starts versus the Pirates. This isn't a surprise considering the Pirates hit lefties having the seventh highest weighted on base average versus them. 
There is a chance of rain, which could mean Bumgarner may not pitch his normal amount. There also is a slight wind blowing out. 

First off, we're talking two strong offenses here. St. Louis is No. 3 in runs scored at 5.3 per game. Texas ranks sixth and is averaging 5.4 runs in its last seven games. 
Second, this should be a hitter's day with the weather hot, humid and a slight wind blowing to left. Scheduled home plate umpire Andy Fletcher is a neutral ump when it comes to over/unders, but the over has cashed six of the last eight times he has been behind the plate. 
The key, though, is the starting pitching matchup of Martin Perez versus Mike Leake. 
Let's begin with Perez, who is much worse on the road with a 4.38 ERA compared to 2.61 at home. He's coming off a 10-6 road victory at pitcher friendly-Oakland Coliseum where he allowed four runs in seven innings. That win ended a 14-game road winless streak for him. 
Leake is just a glorified innings-eater with a high contract. The over has cashed in eight of his past 10 starts. His home ERA is 4.50. The Cardinals' bullpen is showing a lot of vulnerability, too, particularly closer Trevor Rosenthal, who has had four horrible performances in eight appearances this month. 

This is a kill spot for the Astros with everything lining up. But rather than lay such hefty juice, going the run line route makes sense. 
The Reds are force-feeding Cody Reed. It's his first big league start. The Reds are desperate because of a cluster injury problem in their starting rotation. Making matters worse for the Reds is their horrendous bullpen, which has a 6.46 road ERA and is heavily taxed having pitching 21 2/3 innings during the past four days. 
The powerful Astros have the offense to take advantage. They also have Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Houston is 21-6 in Keuchel's last 27 home starts and he's 14-3 the past 17 times when pitching on five days rest. 
Despite winning last night against the Astros, the Reds are just 6-17 in their last 23 road games versus opponents sporting an above .500 home mark. 

Not only is the pitching matchup good here for Tampa Bay, but this is a rare emotional baseball spot, too. The Rays are going to have a sellout after offering any available seat for $5 with the proceeds going to benefit victims, including those affected by the mass shooting that happened in Orlando this past Sunday. 
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is an innings-eater type of pitcher, who hasn't been going deep into games lately while sporting a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts. He has a bad interleague history with a 2-8 mark and 5.46 ERA. 
Rays starter Chris Archer has shown his All-Star form of a year ago when pitching at Tropicana Field posting a 2.33 home ERA this season. 
It's a plus if Evan Longoria is able to play after missing Thursday's game because of a sore left forearm. 
The Giants could be without two of their three best hitters. Buster Posey is likely to play, but Hunter Pence is on the DL and Brandon Belt is questionable with a sore ankl

The Red Sox are the best hitting team in the majors and also No. 1 in runs scored. They should do plenty of damage against a declining Hisashi Iwakuma and a Mariners bullpen that has serious fatigue issues. 
Iwakuma has a horrible history against Boston with a 10.20 ERA in four career starts. The Mariners' bullpen has toiled 15 innings during the past three days. 
Boston was held to only one run on Thursday. The Red Sox have scored five or more runs in 12 of their last 18 games and average 6.7 runs if held to zero or one run during their previous game. 
This is a huge start for southpaw Roenis Elias. Not only is he auditioning for the Red Sox's No. 5 spot in the rotation, but he's facing the team he pitched for the previous two seasons. Elias looks like he has straightened himself out at Triple A holding opponents to a .194 average during his last five starts with 40 strikeouts in 36 innings during this span.
Elias always has been tough on left-handed hitters holding them to a career average of .224 in the majors. The Mariners have a number of key left-handed batters, including Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Adam Lind and most of their outfielders. 

Both starters, 31-year-old Junior Guerra and 32-year-old Scott Kazmir, have been pitching above their heads. Guerra has made just eight big league starts despite his age. Opponents have a full book on him now. 
The Brewers' two top power hitters, Chris Carter and Ryan Braun, should be fresh after being rested yesterday. Kazmir is the third southpaw the Brewers are facing in their last five games. They just faced Madison Bumgarner two games ago and scored five runs (four earned) on nine hits in six innings off Steven Matz. Kazmir is quite a drop in class compared to Bumgarner and Matz. 
Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen carries a fatigue rating having pitched the past two days throwing a total of 30 pitches. 

It's my belief the Warriors are the superior team here when they have Draymond Green. He returns to action for this Game 6. 
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving took advantage of Green's Game 5 suspension to combine to make an astounding 33 of 54 shots from floor. The rest of the Cavaliers aren't impressive and I don't see James and Irving having a Game for the Ages like they did in Game 5. 
Golden State has proven itself time after time following a loss going 16-1 in those instances! The Warriors are an underdog here making that powerful 94 percent trend even stronger. 
A telling statistic from Game 5 was the Cavaliers coming up with just 15 assists. Cleveland's ball movement wasn't good. Kevin Love continues to be a non-factor and the Warriors own a huge bench edge.
The extra time off from playing on Monday favors the Warriors because they are much better coached with Steve Kerr over rookie coach Tyronn Lue. It's a plus if Andrew Bogut is able to play for the Warriors, but not essential. 
The Warriors are going to have fresh legs and Green, who not only is a tremendous defender but helps open the floor offensively for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The importance of Green to Golden State is immeasurable and it will show in this game. 
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are totally reliant on James and Irving. Those two aren't enough to stop a rested and superior Warriors team from winning. 

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, his record would be just 6-6 in his last 12 starts if the Dodgers were minus 1 1/2 runs. If there is one team that has been competitive against Kershaw it's the Diamondbacks. Kershaw is 11-8 against them with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw is 1-6 during his last seven starts at Chase Field.
The Dodgers rank 27th in batting average and OPS. They are a predominantly right-handed hitting team, a negative when going against southpaw Patrick Corbin. Only three times in their last 16 games have the Dodgers scored more than four runs. Their bullpen is below average aside from star closer Kenley Jansen. LA already has blown nine saves on the road. 
Paul Goldschmidt, the Diamondbacks' key hitter, has a strong history versus the Dodgers and is batting .391 since May 27. The Diamondbacks are much stronger offensively versus lefties, too. 
Corbin had a 2.97 ERA at Chase Field in 2013 and a 3.11 ERA at home last season with a 44-to-six-strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's had a down season so far this year, but has recently showed signs of regaining his one-time All-Star form. 

When you look at the ERA's of the starting pitchers - Nathan Eovaldi (4.42 ERA) and Jorge De La Rosa (8.81 ERA) - it is easy to understand why the total is so large for this interleague matchup at Coors Field. 
But digging deeper you find this to be a great spot for the under. 
Let's start with the visiting Yankees. Eovaldi is one of the hardest throwers in the league. He can cut it loose because the Yankees have a fresh bullpen from being idle on Monday. That could mean the final three innings will be dominated by New York's Big Three relievers of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
Coors Field often can be a nightmare for pitchers. Not Eovaldi, though. He has a 1.47 ERA there in three career starts at Coors. 
The southpaw De La Rosa has a 0.98 ERA in four career starts versus the Yankees. He's a tough matchup for the Yankees with their many left-handed bats. The Yankees have a huge hole at first base with four of them on the DL. New York is so desperate at the position it signed Ike Davis, another left-handed batter. The Yankees have scored just one run in each of their last two games.
De La Rosa has showed signs of turning his season around allowing one run in three relief appearances. He last pitched on Thursday striking out five in a perfect four inning performance. This is his opportunity to get back into the Rockies' starting rotation. Historically, he has pitched well at Coors Field. Colorado is 55-17 in his last 72 starts at Coors

Look for Carlos Carrasco to pitch well against a banged-up Royals lineup. This is Carrasco's third start since recovering from a hamstring injury. Carrasco limits his walks and induces ground ball outs, which is the perfect complement in facing the patient Royals. 
The Indians have won nine of their last 12 and catch Kansas City in its first game back from a 10-game road trip. The Royals were 2-8 on their trip. Cleveland is 5-1 in Carrasco's last six starts and have won seven consecutive division games.  
Edinson Volquez isn't in Carrasco's class. The Royals' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating, too.

The offenses aren't getting enough credit with this low of a total.
Kyle Hendricks isn't nearly that good away from Wrigley Field with a 1-4 record and 4.23 ERA.

Only three teams have hit more homers than the Nationals, who rank 10th in runs scored. They've scored 23 runs in their last three games. 
The Cubs have scored the third-most runs in baseball. Max Scherzer has a 4.50 home ERA and the Nationals have vulnerable set-up relievers.  

Chris Archer is rounding back into form and has dominated the Astros going 3-0 with a 0.80 ERA in five career starts versus Houston. Current Astros have a lifetime .172 batting average against Archer. 
Houston still could be missing star shortstop Carlos Correa, who has a sprained left ankle. Tampa Bay meanwhile just got versatile Logan Forysythe back from the DL. He had two hits last night while batting leadoff.  
The Astros are not built for Astrotruf where they are 7-19 the past 26 times. They have lost six in a row at Tropicana Field. 
Houston starter Mike Fiers has a 7.20 road ERA. Not surprisingly the Astros have dropped all five of his road outings this season. Fiers has a 5.85 ERA during day games and can't count on an inconsistent Houston bullpen that has a 4.47 road ERA. 

The Warriors have played in 20 postseason games - and this total opened the lowest of any of them. 

Cleveland scored 120 points in Game 3 of the series this past Wednesday. Golden State averaged 107 points in winning the first two games of the series. Each of the first three games of the series has been a blowout. A close game is due. The spread for this matchup reflects that, which puts the possibility of overtime into play. 
Steph Curry is due, too, for a huge game. He's averaging 16 points per game in the series, down 14 points per game from his 30-point season average. Golden State is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA averaging a tick under 115 points per game. 
The Cavaliers have reached triple digits in 23 of their last 28 games. Their confidence is up after torching the Warriors for 120 points two days ago. Kyrie Irving is back on track and LeBron James remains unstoppable cementing his status as an all-time great. 
The Cavaliers accomplished this huge scoring game despite missing Kevin Love, their third-leading scorer. He's questionable due to a concussion. If Love sits out again, the Cavaliers go small and play fast. It's not a minus, though, for the over if Love plays since he's such a weak defender. 

First off, neither of these offenses is very strong. The Mets have scored the third-fewest runs in the majors. They are down three key hitters - Lucas Duda, David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud - and also could be missing Neil Walker. New York has scored two or fewer runs in seven of its last 12 games.
Milwaukee ranks 20th in runs scored and has scored more than four runs only twice in its last 10 games. 
Matt Harvey is past his bumpy stage. He's looked back in elite form during his last two starts giving up only one run in 14 innings during this span. Aaron Hill is the only Brewer who has faced Harvey. Closer Jeurys Famila is 20-for-20 in save opportunities. 
Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been solid allowing three earned runs or less during each of his past five starts. He's also gone at least six innings during all but one of his seven starts. The Brewers have an underrated bullpen with Will Smith back joining Tyler Thornburg (2.84 ERA) and Jeremy Jeffress (2.93 ERA). The Mets have never faced Guerra either.
Miller Park is a strong hitter's park, but that is somewhat negated by the wind blowing in at 10-12 mph. 

Washington is 7-2 in its last nine games and playing great outscoring Chicago, 21-9, during the first two games of this series.

The White Sox are playing their worst of the season dropping 20 of their last 26, including their last five games. 
The White Sox have lost six of the last seven times when facing a southpaw starter. Lefty Gio Gonzalez is going for Washington. He allowed two earned runs in 12 innings during interleague starts against the Royals and Twins this season. 
The White Sox are pitching Miguel Gonzalez after originally going with Carlos Rodon, who was scratched after complaining of neck discomfort.  

Zig Zag can only work when two teams are close to even. That's not the case in this NBA Championship Series. Golden State clearly is dominant. The Cavaliers don't have the coaching, bench and versatility to beat the Warriors even in this must-win spot at home.
It's not a fluke the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers by a combined 48 points during the first two games. Switching venues to Cleveland should ensure a full effort from the Cavaliers, but that's not enough for them to win a game. The Cavaliers simply are outmatched here. 
Playing three days since Sunday's Game 2 is going to only magnify the gap because Steve Kerr is a far better coach than Cleveland's inexperienced rookie head man Tyronn Lue. But Lue could be Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich and Red Auberbach all rolled into one and he still couldn't find a way to beat the Warriors because his Cavaliers simply can't match the talent and depth of Golden State. There are no X's and O's that can change that. 
Golden State has covered 69 percent of the time when playing on two full days of rest during the past 51 instances. Cleveland is 5-12 ATS the past 17 times when playing on two full days of rest. 
The Cavaliers actually have been playing decent defense coming up with 15 steals and forcing 20 turnovers in Game 2. It didn't matter because the Warriors have so many aces besides superstar Stephen Curry and stars Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Golden State is shooting better than 50 percent from the floor in the series. Lue can't hide the defensive weaknesses of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who is hurt. Irving is playing terrible on offense, too, missing 24 of 36 field goals while having more turnovers than assists.
LeBron James just doesn't have the necessary help. Curry, Thompson and Green do. The Warriors are effective when they go big with Andrew Bogut and you could argue that no one has played better two-way basketball than Andre Iguodala. Proof of this is the Warriors being plus 49 points when Iguodala has been on the court. 

When last seen James Shields was giving up 10 runs in less than three innings against the Mariners at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. That was nine days ago when he was with the Padres.
Now Shields is with the White Sox, in a tougher pitching park, and facing one of the elite hurlers in baseball, Max Scherzer. The price is low enough for me to get on board with the Nationals. 
The White Sox are playing dreadful dropping 11 of their last 13. Scherzer is 12-6 career-wise versus the White Sox with a 2.54 ERA. 

 

The Marlins are a bit underrated being two games above .500. The Twins are who they are - a team that is 23 games below .500. 
Minnesota has lost 14 of its last 18 games at Target Center. This is a short price to lay against the Twins with a superior team that also has an edge in starting pitching and bullpen. 
Miami is 6-2 in Wei-Yin Chen's last eight starts. Ricky Nolasco is a 33-year-old journeyman who played his best ball years ago for the Marlins. Nolasco has been bad at home going 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. 

I'm a big fan of Jordan Zimmerman, who is back healthy. Detroit has won five in a row and is 8-2 in Zimmerman's last 10 starts.  
R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer who has a 5.71 ERA in day games. This is a day game with an early start time. Dickey also is going to have to deal with 14-15 mph winds. 
Toronto has lost in nine of Dickey's last 11 outings. 

Kyle Hendricks hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-3 with a 4.37 road ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home. This also is the Phillies' third look already at Hendricks having just faced him two starts ago. 
Philadelphia's offense has picked up with the call-up of Tommy Joseph and picking up Jimmy Paredes. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is underrated having made seven of 11 quality starts this season. The Phillies' bullpen also is underrated having been quite good this season. 

Both team's hitters could be off due to the travel circumstances. The Rays are coming in from Minnesota while the Diamondbacks also are arriving from the Midwest having just finished a series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Note, too, that the roof is going to be closed for this game. 
Chris Archer is having a down season - so far. He's due for a turnaround. The Diamondbacks are not familiar with him. Arizona has scored just 13 runs in its last five games. 
Tampa Bay has never seen Robbie Ray before. Ray has pitched better at night this season. 

The lay price is justified here. Carlos Martinez is a very good pitcher who is back on track, while 35-year-old Jake Peavy is close to washed-up and is at his worst pitching on the road. 
The Giants are down starting outfielders Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan. Pence's loss is huge. San Francisco is 57-65 the past two years when they haven't had Pence compared to 62-38 when he's been in the lineup. The Giants average one run less per game when Pence doesn't play going from 4.9 runs to 3.9. Catcher Buster Posey, the Giants' most dangerous bat, also is out of today's starting lineup. 
San Francisco has dropped 20 of its last 26 away games when playing an above .500 foe. That trend should hold up here considering Peavy has a 7.20 road ERA. The Giants have lost the last eight times Peavy has pitched on the road against an opponent with a winning record. 
This line could be priced even higher but Peavy is coming off his best game of the season, throwing a one-hitter in seven innings this past Tuesday. That was against the Braves, though, who have the worst record in the majors and the worst offense ranking last in runs and batting average. Prior to facing the downtrodden Braves, Peavy had allowed 23 earned runs in his last six starts spanning 27 1/3 innings.
Going back to 2014, Peavy is 3-17 before the All-Star break. 
Martinez had a rough May, but was back to form in his last start shutting out the Brewers, 6-0, this past Monday. St. Louis is 13-3 the last 16 times when Martinez pitches with five days of rest. The Cardinals also are 19-5 during Martinez's last 24 starts following a quality start.

Simply put, I don't see the Reds sweeping the Nationals and I'm willing to lay this price to back that opinion.
The Reds are swinging the bats well, but for this matchup they are going against underrated Tanner Roark with a combination of a terrible starter and terrible bullpen.
Roark is better than his 4-4 record. He gets overshadowed by the Nationals' two superstar starters, but has a 2.70 ERA. Roark is in excellent form, too, with a 1.74 ERA during his last three starts. Roark has a 1.89 lifetime ERA against the Reds. 
Reds starter Jon Moscot shouldn't be in a big league rotation. He has a 7.31 ERA and is only getting another start because the Reds' starting pitching is decimated with injuries. Cincinnati has the worst bullpen in the majors, too. So Moscot can expect no help. 

It's easy to forget about Jeremy Hellickson since he's gone from the Rays into the National League. But Hellickson is pitching his most consistent ball posting a 2.00 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in his last four starts spanning 27 innings in which he's fanned 28. 
Hellickson has a 2.00 career ERA against the Brewers, too, in three starts and should be fresh after tossing just 79 pitches in his last last start this past Monday. That came against the Nationals in which he held Washington to one run in seven innings. 
The Phillies' confidence should be up after they beat the Brewers and their best pitcher, Jimmy Nelson, 6-3 on Friday. That halted a seven-game Philadelphia losing streak. 
Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a 31-year-old rookie who had been pitching above his head. But now he's coming off his first loss, a 6-0 loss to the Cardinals this past Monday. 

Johnny Cueto has a bad history at Busch Stadium. He also has a back/side physical issue. The Giants are down two-thirds of their starting outfield, including much underrated Hunter Pence. The Cardinals are 7-0 in Adam Wainwright's last seven starts. 
Yet the Giants opened the favorite here. No, I'm not buying that. 
Cueto always has trouble against St. Louis. The last time he won at Busch was in 2010. He's 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA in his last six starts there with a lifetime 5.71 ERA when pitching in St. Louis. All together, Cueto is 1-5 during his last 10 starts versus the Cardinals. 
Cueto also has been dealing with back soreness. Dealing with this injury is magnified by the way Cueto throws, which is a full turn similar to former great Luis Tiant. St. Louis has the offense to take advantage if Cueto isn't sharp ranking No. 2 in runs, third in OPS and fifth in homers. The last time the Cardinals played at home they put up eight runs against the Cubs in a game started by Jake Arrieta. 
Wainwright has been steadily getting better since the start of the season. He's posted quality outings in four of his last six starts and owns a 3.11 career ERA in 12 appearances versus San Francisco. 
The Giants are down starting outfielders Angel Pagan and Pence. Both are sidelined with hamstring injuries. Last year, the Giants went 12-18 when Pence missed 30 games with a wrist injury. 

Two terrible starting pitchers; two terrible bullpens. The oddsmaker can't put out a total high enough on this Reds-Rockies matchup at Coors Field. 
The Reds and Rockies combined for 21 runs two days ago at Coors and they could match that here. 
Alfredo Simon is the worst starting pitcher in the majors, which is saying a lot. He has a 9.60 ERA, highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings. He only remains in Cincinnati's starting rotation because of multiple injuries. The Reds really have no other way to turn in this game. It's stick with Simon, or turn things over to the worst bullpen in the majors. 
Simon is getting worse, too, having surrendered a staggering 18 runs on 26 hits in his last three starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has an 11.25 ERA in two starts versus Colorado.  
The Reds, though, are going to do plenty of damage against Eddie Butler and a bad Colorado bullpen. Butler has a 6.88 ERA in his 10 starts and a 6.57 ERA at Coors. Butler posted a 5.25 ERA in two starts versus Cincinnati last season. 
Cincinnati is swinging hot bats averaging 6.3 runs in its last six games. Streaky Jay Bruce and table setter Billy Hamilton love to hit at Coors. Bruce is 8-for-21 in his last three games with three homers and Hamilton is 7-for-13 in the series. The Reds also could get back second baseman Brandon Phillips, who is 7-for-11 in his last three games against the Rockies. 

The Yankees not only have a vastly superior bullpen, but the stronger starting pitcher here, too.
Masahiro Tanaka is ace material and he's in excellent form. Tanaka has a 1.34 road ERA this season, allowing only one run in his last 22 innings away from Yankee Stadium. Tanaka is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three lifetime starts at Rogers Centre. 
Righty Aaron Sanchez goes for Toronto. He hasn't won yet at home where his ERA is 4.88. The Yankees are 7-2 the past nine times when they've faced righties. 

Cole Hamels still remains a stud. A bad outing in his last start doesn't change that. Texas is 18-4 in Hamels' last 22 starts.

Trevor Bauer always has been more about potential than production. He can't be trusted. Cleveland is 2-6 in his last eight starts. 

The Rangers have won four in a row and five straight on the road. 

Anibal Sanchez wasn't good last year with a 4.99 ERA and he's even worse this season with a 6.04 ERA. That's the highest ERA of his career and is evidence of a continued downward cycle. The one good thing Sanchez does is help get games to go over the total. The over is 33-14-5  for 70 percent during his past 52 starts, including 9-1 over on his last 10 starts. 
The right-handed Sanchez can expect little, if any, help from a Detroit bullpen that ranks 29th with a 4.59 ERA. The over has cashed 12 of the last 16 times the Angels have gone against a righty starter. 
Angels starter Hector Santiago was pitching above his head earlier this season. But now a regression to the norm is taking place as Santiago has a 16.20 ERA in his last two starts with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 15-to-12 this month. 
Brian Knight is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over is 23-18 (56%) the past two years when Knight has been behind the plate. 

The price is low enough to back what is shaping up to be the best team in baseball.

The Dodgers are in a tough travel spot and inferior to the Cubs in all three major categories - offense, defense and starting pitcher with lefty Alex Wood facing Jason Hammel. 

Wood averages less than six innings per start. He's rusty, too, having not pitched in the last nine days because of a triceps injury. LA is 1-6 in Wood's last seven road starts. The Dodgers' bullpen is a disaster area with the exception of closer Kenley Jansen. 

The Cubs are 7-1 in Hammel's last eight starts and 8-2 the past 10 times they've faced a southpaw. 

Since when should the Braves ever be backed laying a price? The answer is against the Marlins with Julio Teheran pitching at home against Tom Koehler with the Marlins possibly missing their two best all-around hitters again. 
That's the case in this matchup. 
The Braves are the worst team in baseball losers of 34 of 48 games. But they own the Marlins beating them in all five games. 
This spot sets up well for Atlanta to continue its Miami mastery. Koehler always has been a much worse pitcher on the road. His away ERA is horrible again this season at 5.13. Koehler is enduring a rough month with a 5.00 ERA. The Marlins are 0-5 in his May starts. 
Those Atlanta players who have faced Koehler have a combined .370 batting average against him. The Braves are 8-3 lifetime against Koehler. 
Teheran is quietly having a monster turnaround posting a 0.89 ERA in his last six starts. He's yielded only three earned runs in 19 innings at home during this stretch. Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 lifetime starts versus the Marlins, including a 2.53 ERA in five career starts against them at Turner Field. 
The Marlins have been without Giancarlo Stanton the past four games because of soreness on his right side while Christian Yelich has had one at bat since May 20 due to a bad back. 

Boston is swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games. The Red Sox faced Toronto starter Marcus Stroman last month and got to him for five runs in 5 1/3 innings in an 8-7 victory. Boston ranks No. 1 in runs, batting average and OPS. The over is 12-3-2 in Boston's past 17 games. 
I see Toronto doing plenty of damage, too, against Rick Porcello. The Blue Jays' bats are waking up. Toronto is averaging six runs per game during its last three games. Porcello pitched well in April, but he's more back to normal this month with a 4.44 ERA. This will be his seventh start at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have averaged 6.5 runs in those contests never scoring fewer than four runs per game. 
Jose Bautista returns to Toronto's lineup after serving a one-game suspension. That's important because he's a .433 career hitter versus Porcello. Bautista and Edward Encarnacion, who is a .375 career hitter against Porcello, have combined for six homers against Porcello. 
Mike DiMuro is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed the past five times he's been behind the plate. 

The Twins are even worse than thought. They are 5-20 in their last 25 games, owners of the worst road record in the American League at 4-19. They have lost the past seven times following an off day. 
I don't see those numbers improving as Minnesota travels to Seattle to take on a hot Mariners club - 7-2 last in its last nine games - and going against Felix Hernandez with rookie Pat Dean. 
Hernandez has some mileage, but is still an elite pitcher. He's in good form, too, with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts. Hernandez has dominated Minnesota also going 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last five starts against the Twins with a 1.93 lifetime ERA in 17 outings.
The Twins are last in the American League in runs scored. Seattle, on the other hand, is swinging hot bats. If you discount a 5-0 loss to Rich Hill three games ago, the Mariners are averaging seven runs during their last six games. Dean is making just his second big league start. 

The oddsmaker has opened this Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals with the lowest total of the series. I don't believe it's justified.

Cleveland is averaging 104.4 points in the series. That includes a give-up game where it scored just 84 points. Toronto is averaging 102 points at home where it plays much better. 
The Cavaliers are coming off a Game 5 home win where they scored 116 points. Only twice in their last 23 games have the Cavaliers failed to reach triple digits. Kevin Love broke out of his slump in Game 5 scoring 25 points making eight of 10 shots from the floor. Kyrie Irving scored 23 points hitting nine of 17 shots from the field. LeBron James certainly is going to get his points. But now Love and Irving are back on track.
Kyle Lowry is the key to the Raptors. He's been terrible on the road, but strong at home averaging 27.5 points while connecting on 8 of 15 shots from beyond the arc. The Raptors also have back 7-foot center Jonas Valanciunas. He had been superb in the playoffs until suffering a sprained ankle that had sidelined him for nearly three weeks. He gives Toronto needed inside scoring and offensive versatility. 
Another key is both teams should have fresh legs since nobody played more than 32 minutes during the Game 5 blowout two nights ago. Only two players even logged more than 30 minutes.  

Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses.
But it's too difficult for me to turn down this many points considering how much the Thunder have outplayed the Warriors during Games 3 and 4 winning by a combined 52 points. 

Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers.

Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. 

The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. 
The Cavaliers blew out the Raptors last night after losing two in a row. But there's a class difference between those two teams. There isn't a class difference between these two teams. If there is, it's the Thunder being much better than the Warriors right now. 

Take the Rockies out of Coors Field and their offense isn't so dangerous. Colorado is averaging barely three runs per game during its last six games - all on the road - while batting .229 during this span. 
I don't see the Rockies breaking out of their slump facing knuckleballer Steven Wright. Not only have the Rockies never seen Wright, they haven't faced a knuckleballer all season. Wright has held opponents to three runs or less in seven of his eight starts. The only bad performance he had came on May 13 when he pitched in the rain against the Astros. The bad weather played havoc with his knuckleball. 
There is no rain in the forecast for today's game. Wright has a 2.52 ERA, which shrinks a bit to 2.45 in night games. The under has cashed in six of Wright's last eight starts.  
Chad Bettis is a middle of the road type starter whose numbers and marketplace respect would be better if he didn't pitch his home games at Coors Field. He looked good in his last outing, giving up one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings during a 3-1 away win against the Cardinals this past Tuesday. Bettis may not have to worry about Hanley Ramirez, who is day-to-day after leaving last night's game after being hit on the toe with a pitch. 
Another plus for the under is Hunter Wendelstedt is slated to be behind the plate. The under has cashed 36 of the last 62 (58 percent) times Wendelstedt has been the home plate umpire during the last three years. 

Golden State and Oklahoma City are the two highest scoring teams in the NBA. But to reach this high of a total both have to be on their games. That hasn't happened yet in this Western Conference Finals. Through the first three games of the series, the losing team has averaged 99.3 points. 
Oklahoma City is coming off a 133-105 burial of the Warriors. Now it's up to the Warriors to make the proper adjustments. I see Steve Kerr doing that by limiting the Thunder in transition. Perhaps no player is more lethal on the fast break than Russell Westbrook. The Warriors have the flexibility and talent to also be effective in a half court game. That means a slower tempo. 
I fully anticipate - and expect - an intense, gut-check defensive effort from the Warriors. The under has cashed 12 of the last 17 times the Warriors gave up triple digits in their last game and has cashed six of the past seven times Golden State has surrendered 125 points or more in its previous game.

OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. 
There is no way a game like that happens to Cleveland in Game 4. I fully expect to see the Cavaliers play their "A" game. Even their "B" game should be enough to cover this number. 
Toronto had its moment. Now things revert back. The Cavaliers buried the Raptors by 31 and 19 points, respectively, during the first two games of this series. The Cavaliers are - and always will be - in control of this series. They totally outclass the Raptors, who have gone as far as they can go. 
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Co. buried the Pistons and Hawks. The Raptors are next in line. 
Toronto has failed to cover six of the past seven times following a victory. The Raptors also are 4-10 ATS versus foes with a winning record. 

Texas is playing well winning its last three games. The Rangers also are a little under-the-radar as far as home dominance having gone 41-19 (68%) in their last 60 games in Arlington. 
Nick Tropeano is overrated not nearly as good as his 3.30 ERA. He doesn't figure to go deep into the game either. Only once this season has he gone past the sixth inning. He's 0-2 lifetime in two starts against the Rangers with a 5.68 ERA. 
Lefty Derek Holland is back on track following his last start. He's 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four starts against the Angels during the past two seasons. Texas is 8-2 in Holland's last 10 home starts versus sub .500 opponents. The Angels also have dropped four of their last five when facing a lefty starter. 

This matchup features a pair of lefty starters, Matt Moore versus Wei-Yin Chen. I like Chen, who is in much better form than Moore.
Chen has given up three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. 
Moore started the season hot, but has been hit hard lately. His ERA for his last three starts is 8.36. The Rays have dropped seven of Moore's last nine road starts. The Marlins also are 5-1 the last six times facing a southpaw.
Tampa Bay is minus a pair of highly underrated players in injured Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaeir. 

Alfredo Simon and a total that is less than 10. That's really all that needs to be said about playing this game over and also laying a road price with the Mariners. I'm doing both. 
Simon, in my opinion, is the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues. He is 1-4 with a 10.34 ERA and is coming off a 13-1 loss to the Indians in which he gave up 10 runs and 14 hits in 4 1/3 innings. 
So why is he still in a big league rotation? Because he pitches for the Reds, a team down six starters as Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Homer Bailey, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot and Tim Adelman are all sidelined. 
If this isn't enough, the Reds also have the worst bullpen. Their relievers came into the weekend with a 6.76 ERA. Cincinnati has surrendered a staggering 55 runs in their last six games. The Reds have lost each of these games with the average loss being by six runs a game. They have won only twice in their last 13 games.
Seattle has the second-best road mark in baseball at 17-7. The Mariners are swinging hot bats. If you discount getting shut out by the Angels last Sunday, they are averaging 6.1 runs in their last 10 games. 
The Mariners are an underrated hitting team having to play their home games at Safeco Field, a strong pitcher's park. They have smacked nine homers in their last five game while playing at homer-friendly Camden Yards in Baltimore and now Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out to right at 7-10 mph. The over has cashed in 67 percent of the past 51 games played at Great American Ball Park.  
Seattle starter Wade Miley is nothing special, but he has won is last four decisions and is coming a 10-0 road victory against the Orioles where he allowed only two hits in six innings. 
The Mariners have dominated the Reds beating them 12 of the last 14 times, including seven of the past eight. 

Alfredo Simon and a total that is less than 10. That's really all that needs to be said about playing this game over and also laying a road price with the Mariners. I'm doing both. 
Simon, in my opinion, is the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues. He is 1-4 with a 10.34 ERA and is coming off a 13-1 loss to the Indians in which he gave up 10 runs and 14 hits in 4 1/3 innings. 
So why is he still in a big league rotation? Because he pitches for the Reds, a team down six starters as Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Homer Bailey, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot and Tim Adelman are all sidelined. 
If this isn't enough, the Reds also have the worst bullpen. Their relievers came into the weekend with a 6.76 ERA. Cincinnati has surrendered a staggering 55 runs in their last six games. The Reds have lost each of these games with the average loss being by six runs a game. They have won only twice in their last 13 games.
Seattle has the second-best road mark in baseball at 17-7. The Mariners are swinging hot bats. If you discount getting shut out by the Angels last Sunday, they are averaging 6.1 runs in their last 10 games. 
The Mariners are an underrated hitting team having to play their home games at Safeco Field, a strong pitcher's park. They have smacked nine homers in their last five game while playing at homer-friendly Camden Yards in Baltimore and now Great American Ball Park. The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out to right at 7-10 mph. The over has cashed in 67 percent of the past 51 games played at Great American Ball Park.  
Seattle starter Wade Miley is nothing special, but he has won is last four decisions and is coming a 10-0 road victory against the Orioles where he allowed only two hits in six innings. 
The Mariners have dominated the Reds beating them 12 of the last 14 times, including seven of the past eight. 

I have no doubt the Cavaliers are going to put up their share of points here. They've scored triple digits in their last 20 games, are averaging 113.4 points during their last five games and 111.5 points during the first two games of this series despite taking the air out of the ball during the final minutes because of holding huge leads. 
Toronto has been embarrassed the first two games - both on the road. Now the Raptors are home where a supreme effort should be forthcoming. It's an understatement to say point guard Kyle Lowry is way overdue having averaged just nine points in the series while missing 20 of 28 shots from the floor, including 14 of 15 from beyond the arc. 
The oddsmaker opened this total again under 200. Neither game exceeded 199. But there's a reason for that. There have been less than 80 points scored during the two fourth quarters because of the blowouts. Neither team even shot the ball during their final possession.
Cleveland is too powerful for Toronto. But this shouldn't be a blowout. Certainly the oddsmaker doesn't think so dropping the line in half. 
The over has cashed 24 of the past 30 times the Raptors have played following a double-digit defeat. 

Sonny Gray is a stud who has pitched poorly in his last four games. I don't see that continuing starting with this game. Gray was quite optimistic coming out of his last start saying he discovered the flaws and has corrected them. I see Gray returning back to his form of last season when he finished third in the Cy Young Award balloting. 
Gray rates a strong edge against over-the-hill CC Sabathia, who is coming off the DL to make his first start since May 4. The Yankees' strength is their great seventh-through-nine inning bridge of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. 
However, none of those three is likely to be available for this game because they all have pitched the past two days. Betances already has been ruled out having thrown 46 pitches the past two nights. That means the Yankees need Sabathia to go deep into the game, or rely on second-tier relievers. Neither is a good option. Sabathia has a poor history at the Oakland Coliseum with a 4-7 lifetime mark and 5.44 ERA. He's given up 11 runs in 12 innings during his last two appearances in Oakland. 
The A's have won four of their last five games and have beaten the Yankees 12 of the last 15 times at home. The Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 overall road games. 

Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. 
No, I don't see the Raptors pulling off an upset for the ages here. But I do see a better situation for Toronto and a strong effort forthcoming. That should ensure the Raptors of staying within a dozen points of Cleveland.
Keep in mind, the Raptors were tired and obviously flat in Game 1 this past Tuesday having just finished a grueling seven-game series against Miami on Sunday. The opener against Cleveland was Toronto's third game at a different gym in five days. Only one day to prepare and regroup to face the Cavaliers wasn't nearly enough.
Now the Raptors have been at the same venue for three days. So look for a lot fresher Raptors team especially star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, who saw their shortest playing time against the Cavaliers in any playoff game. 
Toronto has proven to be resilient and tough following a loss covering seven of the past 10 times in that instance. Each time the Raptors lost in the playoffs, too, they bounced back with a victory going 6-0 in these spots. The Raptors also are 13-5 ATS the past 18 times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Raptors had a better record than Detroit and Atlanta. Yet the Cavaliers were 10 1/2 and 11-point home favorites against the Pistons in the playoffs and minus 7 and 7 1/2 versus the Hawks at home in the playoffs. 
So the Cavaliers certainly are paying a premium for their lopsided Game 1 victory. I'll take the value with an underdog that has much to prove, including a lot of self-respect, following Game 1. 

This is the biggest price I've laid all season, but I think it's worth a small play to get behind Chris Sale, who has been just brilliant. Sale is 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA. That minuscule ERA shrinks even more to 0.99 during his past six starts. The southpaw has allowed just 22 hits in 45 1/3 innings during this span. 
The White Sox haven't been swept all season and the Astros have been a terrible road team going 27-57 during their past 84 away games. 
Astros starter Collin McHugh has an 8.74 road ERA in three starts and Houston's bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. Sale is 3-1 career-wise versus Houston with an 0.56 ERA in four lifetime starts. Houston has dropped eight of the last 10 when going against a lefty. 

Atlanta is getting a lot of bad publicity for its terrible record, which is tied for the worst in baseball. Guess who the Braves are tied with? Yep, the Twins. 
Minnesota is 10-29 and has dropped six in a row at home. They are the perfect patsy for the struggling Blue Jays to get well on. Toronto has feasted on the Twins winning 42 of the last 58 meetings. 
The Blue Jays have the stronger offense, better starter and superior bullpen. The pitching matchup is Marco Estrada, who has a 2.89 ERA, versus 33-year-old journeyman Ervin Santana. The Twins are 1-6 in Santana's last seven starts. 

Cleveland is averaging 12 runs in each of its last three games. That hot offensive run just may continue another game facing 28-year-old journeyman Tim Adleman and the worst bullpen in the majors. 
Cleveland has dominated this series winning eight of nine since the start of last season. Cincinnati is already 10 games below .500 and has lost six of its last seven.
I don't see Adleman, who shouldn't even be in a big league rotation, picking the Reds up. Certainly he doesn't figure to get any help from a Reds bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.43 ERA, 85 walks and 33 homers given up. And, oh by the way, the Reds' bullpen also carries a high fatigue rating. A reliable closer still has not been found. 
Cleveland is 14-2 in Josh Tomlin's last 16 starts. The Indians are unbeaten in Tomlin's starts this year. They also are 6-0 in Tomlin's past six road outings. 

The opening total in Game 2 of the Thunder-Warriors Western Conference Finals is down from Game 1 when the number was as high as 224. 
I thought the oddsmaker had it right with his Game 1 total. Golden State led the NBA in scoring at 114.9 points a game and Oklahoma City was No. 2 at 110.2 points. 
The teams combined for 210 points in Game 1 with the Thunder winning, 108-102. There was a rust factor in that matchup with Golden State having been idle for four days while the Thunder had not played for three days. That rust factor will be gone for Wednesday's game since Game 1 was played on Monday. 
Oklahoma City reached 108 points despite Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combining to make just 17 of 51 shots from the floor. The Thunder shot 68.8 percent from the foul line when during the season their free throw percentage was 78.2 percent. The Thunder know they are capable of playing better even though they pulled the upset. 
Golden State managed only 42 points in the second half on Monday with just 14 coming in the fourth quarter. Those numbers are extremely out of character for the Warriors. I don't see that pattern repeating in this Game 2. If the Warriors get up by 14 points - like they did in Game 1 - they are not going to letup physically or mentally. That means keeping a fast pace. During the season, the Warriors were No. 2 in tempo. 
Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to connect on 20 of 47 shots from the field in Game 1. They are capable of better. The Warriors also shot poorly from the foul line and from 3-point range. 
The Warriors made just 64.7 percent of their free throws and shot 36.7 percent from 3-point range when during the season they averaged an NBA-best 41.6 percent. 
Both teams - and their superstars - are due to shoot better from the floor. The free throw shooting should be much improved, too. The feeling out process is finished. These teams are about offense. And now that the total is lower than before this is the time to take advantage with an over. 

The White Sox should be bigger favorites here. But the line is short here because Dallas Keuchel is pitching for Houston. Keuchel was brilliant last year in winning the Cy Young Award by going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. But this year he's struggling giving up 44 hits during his last five starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. 

Keuchel has had problems on the road going 2-5 with a 5.51 ERA. Lifetime, he's 10 games under .500 on the road with a 4.50 ERA.

The White Sox are having a much better season, too, than the Astros being 10 games above .500 while Houston is nine games under  .500. 

Southpaw Carlos Rondon has been up and down. But I trust him more at home than I do the overrated Keuchel on the road behind an inferior bullpen. Houston has lost 16 of the past 21 times when facing a lefty. 

The White Sox also have defeated the Astros in seven of their last eight home games. 

The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points.
Now I'm not saying Golden State is going to bury the Thunder like that, but I do believe the timing and matchup is right for the Warriors to win by double digits in this opener of the Western Conference finals. 
The Warriors have a tremendous home floor as evidenced by losing just once at Oracle Arena all season. Golden State went 3-0 versus Oklahoma City during the regular season winning at home against the Thunder by 15 and 8 points, respectively. The Warriors have covered in seven of their last eight home game, including going 5-1 ATS during the playoffs.  
Now much of that is factored into the line. What's isn't built as much into the line is the belief that the Warriors have the versatility, flexibility, superior coaching and athletic talent to take advantage of being off for four full days and counter the Thunder's rebounding edge. 
Oklahoma City was able to beat San Antonio by dominating the Spurs on the boards. That forced the Spurs into a deliberate style where they had to rely on a mediocre perimeter game. San Antonio got out of sync. Some of the Spurs showed their considerable age.
The Warriors' talent are in their prime. Stephen Curry proved he's back from his knee injury averaging 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds during the final two games of Golden State's semifinal victory over the Trail Blazers. Curry and banged-up center Andrew Bogut should heavily benefit from the extra time off between series. 
I expect the Warriors to be in sync and able to hurt the Thunder via fast breaks, something the older and slower Spurs were unable to do. The Thunder aren't going to be able to beat the Warriors like they did the Spurs. That difference is going to manifest itself in this Game 1. There's also the chance the Thunder still are on a big high from upsetting the Spurs and not able to settle down for this much different opponent especially being on the road.  

Jacob deGrom's velocity may be slightly down from last season, but he's still a stud. Tyler Chatwood is a promising pitcher, too. Corey Blaser, the scheduled home plate umpire, is a solid ump. Put this together, along with a slight wind blowing in, and you have a game that should not reach double-digit scoring.
DeGrom has a 2.12 ERA. Only once in his last five starts as he given up more than two runs. He's surrendered just seven runs in his last five starts. The right-hander has pitched twice against the Rockies in his career and held them scoreless in 15 innings giving up just five hits while striking out 19. The under has cashed five of the last six times the Rockies have faced a righty. 
Chatwood has pitched great on the road and poorly at Coors Field. That's a reason why this total is so high. Chatwood, though, has a high ceiling. He's been held back because of injuries and is finally healthy now. I expect him to start pitching better at home. Both teams could be sitting out starters this being a Sunday with the Mets already announcing that David Wright isn't going to start. New York has gone under in six of its last seven away games. 
Blaser is a pitcher's umpire. The under has cashed 58 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past three years at 35-25, including seven of the past nine times. 
Note, too, the under has cashed 10 of the last 13 times these teams have met.