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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
01-16-17	Stars v. Sabres UNDER 5.5	Top	1-4	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Dallas isn't the high-scoring team of a year ago. Jamie Benn is having a down season and the Stars rank just 17th in goals scored. The Sabres are a defensive-team. They rank 27th in goals scored. Their style is tight-checking with a methodical neutral zone approach. They like to force turnovers and dump-offs. The Stars dislike this approach preferring an up-and-down the ice style. Buffalo is effective at home in its way of doing things. The under is 14-6-6 in the Sabres' past 26 home contests. An early day time start here is a plus to the under, too. The Stars just beat the Wild in an exciting 5-4 game this past Saturday coming from four goals down. This game is going to have an opposite feel. Dallas has a bigger road game on deck tomorrow facing the Rangers. So it's a real flat spot for the Stars. The under has cashed four of the last five times, too, when the teams have met.
01-15-17	Thunder -120 v. Kings	Top	122-118	Win	100	15 h 48 m	Show
The records show Oklahoma City to be 24-17 and Sacramento to be 16-23. The won-lost marks don't lie. The Thunder are a much superior team to the Kings. Oklahoma City isn't going to overlook, or let down, against the Kings either having lost to Sacramento the last time they met. Following this game, the Thunder are at the Clippers, Warriors and Jazz. The Thunder just lost to the Timberwolves on Friday playing one of their worst games. So this matchup is of great importance to Oklahoma City. As usual, Sacramento isn't playing well. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games and 1-4 in their last five home games. The excitement of playing in their new state-of-the-art arena has worn off. Matchup-wise a big key is rebounding. The Thunder have the third-best rebounding margin in the NBA while the Kings rank 23rd. The Thunder can dominated the boards, which in turns ignites their dangerous fast break headed by Russell Westbrook.
01-15-17	USC v. Colorado -3		71-68	Loss	-110	16 h 6 m	Show
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans.
01-15-17	Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs	Top	18-16	Win	100	162 h 36 m	Show
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game.
01-15-17	Wild v. Blackhawks -124		3-2	Loss	-124	8 h 23 m	Show
Blackhawks minus $1.25 hosting Wild Chicago won four in a row at home before suffering an embarrassing 6-0 road loss to red-hot Washington on Friday. Now the Blackhawks are back home where they have won 17 of 25 times this season. The price has come down enough to get involved here with Chicago as the spot highly favors the Blackhawks. Minnesota is playing extremely well. But this is the Wild's third game in four days and second in two days. They just nipped the Stars, 5-4, in Dallas on Saturday to replace the Blackhawks as Central Division leaders. Not only do the Blackhawks want to reclaim the top spot, but have revenge for last season when the Wild swept all five games. Prior to last season, though, the Blackhawks had beaten the Wild seven of the past eight times at home.
01-15-17	Packers +4 v. Cowboys		34-31	Win	100	150 h 57 m	Show
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie. Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams. Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against. Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain. The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
01-14-17	St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5		56-79	Win	100	24 h 41 m	Show
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale.
01-14-17	Texans +16 v. Patriots	Top	16-34	Loss	-100	23 h 40 m	Show
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
01-14-17	Maple Leafs v. Senators -115	Top	4-2	Loss	-115	6 h 59 m	Show
The last time these teams met was opening night in Ottawa. Auston Matthews had the greatest scoring debut of any rookie in NHL history scoring four goals for Toronto. The Maple Leafs still lost. I don't see Matthews getting anywhere close to four goals this time around, but I do envision the Senators having an easier time winning. The Senators are off their best win of the season beating the Penguins, 4-1, two days ago. A key to their victory was the defensive job center Jean-Gabriel Pageau did on Sidney Crosby. He also held Connor McDavid scoreless in the game before that and can keep Matthews from doing damage. Toronto is off a 4-2 upset road win against the Rangers last night. The Maple Leafs were aided by hot goalie Frederik Andersen, who made 34 saves versus the Rangers. However, Andersen isn't scheduled to be in the nets tonight. Instead Curtis McEhinney will make his first start in goal for Toronto. It's a huge drop-off. The journeyman is 1-4 career-wise against the Senators. The Senators have dominated this series at home winning the past five times.
01-14-17	Penguins v. Red Wings OVER 5.5		3-6	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
The over has cashed the last five times the Penguins and Red Wings have met. I see that trend continuing here. The Penguins lead the NHL in scoring and the Red Wings are giving up an average of five goals in their last three games. Neither team has a top-notch goalie. The Red Wings are really sub-par in goal with Jared Coreau slated to be in the net today.
01-14-17	Georgia v. Florida UNDER 142		76-80	Loss	-105	3 h 37 m	Show
This is the highest total for this series in a long time - and it's not justified. The highest mark these teams have combined for during the past nine meetings was 140 points with the average final score being 125 points. I'd be surprised if this total got past 136. Not only are these two strong defensive teams, but each plays at a slow tempo. Both surrender less than 68 points per game. Georgia ranks 36th in field goal percentage defense.
01-13-17	Blue Jackets -110 v. Lightning		3-1	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
Since their 16-game win streak, the Blue Jackets are 1-3. They are coming off a 5-3 loss at Carolina when All-Star goalie Sergei Bobrovsky missed the game due to illness. That was on Tuesday. Tampa Bay played last night and defeated the Sabres, 4-2, with Ben Bishop returning to the nets. I like the scheduling dynamics here with the Blue Jackets in stop-the-pain mode under fiery John Tortorealla and playing on a full two days rest, while the Lightning are playing without rest and coming off a much-needed victory. Recent trends confirm this. Columbus is 7-0 on two days rest. The Blue Jackets also have won eight of their last 10 road contests. Tampa Bay is 1-7 following a victory. The Blue Jackets hope to have Bobrovsky back in goal. He's 4-1 the past five times after not playing during the previous game giving up seven goals in those five instances, including one during each of the last three starts. Bobrovsky has outplayed Tampa Bay goalies posting a 26-6-2 mark with a .931 save percentage.
01-13-17	Hornets -5.5 v. 76ers	Top	93-102	Loss	-105	10 h 49 m	Show
It's weird to write this, but the 76ers are actually in a letdown spot after coming from 17 points down to nip the Knicks at the buzzer during their last game two days ago. That was Philly's 11th win of the season passing their victory total of a year ago. It also was the 76ers' second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Hornets are in stop-the-pain mode after three losses in a row with the last two occurring on the road against the Spurs and Rockets. Charlotte hasn't been in action since Tuesday. Maybe Nicolas Batum returns after missing the last two games with a knee injury. That would be a bonus, but I like the Hornets even if Batum doesn't play. This is a rare game when the 76ers' opponent is taking them fully serious and considering this an important game. That's the case with Charlotte. The Hornets are middle-of-the-road both offensively and defensively. They are well coached and are leading the NBA in forcing turnovers for a fourth straight season. They are two levels higher than the 76ers and won't lack motivation here.
01-12-17	Pistons v. Warriors OVER 218.5		107-127	Win	100	5 h 26 m	Show
The Warriors lead the league averaging better than 117 points per game. They have averaged 122 points in four of their last five games and get Klay Thompson back in the lineup. There were 222 points scored when these teams met last month. Detroit's defense has slipped. The Pistons have allowed 114 points are more in three of their last four games. The over has cashed in six of their last seven game
01-12-17	UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara	Top	66-62	Loss	-105	22 h 23 m	Show
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
01-12-17	Devils +170 v. Oilers		2-3	Loss	-100	8 h 26 m	Show
Value play here on the Devils, who have short revenge for a 2-1 home overtime loss to the Oilers from five days ago. Edmonton scored the winning goal off a power play following a controversial penalty on Travis Zajac. The Devils are taking to the road following three consecutive losses. They should put forth a focus and motivated effort here especially Taylor Hall. He's returning to Edmonton after spending his first six years with the Oilers. It's a good time for the Devils to get out of New Jersey. Not only do the Devils have a goalie edge with Cory Schneider, but they also catch the Oilers playing for the fourth time in six days. Edmonton is 1-8 the past nine times in this situation. Schneider has a 1.60 GAA in 11 starts versus the Oilers If you discount a 4-2 loss to the Maple Leafs, the Devils have given up only five goals in four games. The big question is can the Devils coax enough offense to come away with the victory? It's worth it in my view - at this big of a price - to find out.
01-12-17	Canucks v. Flyers OVER 5		4-5	Win	100	2 h 59 m	Show
Vancouver had scored three or more goals in five straight games prior to its past two games. I see the Canucks getting back into scoring at least three goals here against an overworked, mediocre Flyers goalie Steve Mason and a 26th-ranked Flyers defense that has permitted an average of 3.5 goals in their last seven games. The Flyers have scored three or more goals in all but two of their last nine home games. They have a history, too, of playing high-scoring games versus Western Conference foes with the over 20-7-6 during Philadelphia's past 33 Western Conference matchups.
01-12-17	Pacers v. Nuggets UNDER 225.5		112-140	Loss	-110	4 h 47 m	Show
Both teams are rusty and playing in an unfamiliar surrounding and time zone as this game is in London. It's the first game in five days for the Pacers and Nuggets. Normally a team welcomes a couple of days rest this much into the season, but five days is way too much. The Nuggets are capable of much better defense and their coach, Mike Malone, knows it. The Nuggets' best offensive player, Danilo Gallinari, is dealing with a sore ankle and several Denver players are battling illness, including Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler. They should be able to play, but their effectiveness could be greatly reduced.
01-11-17	Magic v. Clippers UNDER 209	Top	96-105	Win	100	5 h 16 m	Show
Frank Vogel has gotten Orlando to play respectable defense where the team ranks 12th in fewest points allowed per game.. Vogel has really been stressing defense and wasn't happy with the Magic's 111-95 loss to the Lakers this past Sunday at LA. The Magic haven't played since remaining in LA now to play the Clippers. Expect an all-out defensive effort from them here. Orlando is weak offensively. Only three teams score fewer points per game than the Magic. The Clippers have clamped down defensively holding three of their last four opponents to fewer than 99 points.
01-10-17	Blazers -120 v. Lakers	Top	108-87	Win	100	25 h 43 m	Show
Considering their huge backcourt advantage and domination in the series, it's not asking too much for Portland to defeat the Lakers. The Trail Blazers have accomplished the task nine straight times, including the past five times at Staples Center. C.J. McCollum is playing his best ball averaging 31 points during his last eight games. Damian Lillard has been sharp since returning two games ago from an ankle injury. Swingman Allen Crabbe is coming off a career-high 30 points. Crabbe recorded that hitting 12 of 15 shots from the floor during the Trail Blazers' 125-124 overtime home loss to Detroit this past Sunday. The Trail Blazers want to redeem themselves from that loss. If they lose here to the Lakers they likely are looking at a three-game losing streak with the defending world champion Cavaliers on deck Wednesday. Portland coach Terry Stotts said he considers this a crucial game. The Lakers are a bit fat and happy with consecutive victories against a pair of likely lottery teams from the Eastern Conference, the Magic and Heat. Portland just hosted the Lakers this past Thursday and won, 118-109. Lillard and McCollum combined to score 48 points and dish off 17 assists.
01-09-17	Capitals +100 v. Canadiens		4-1	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
The timing is good here for Washington, which has won five in a row. The Capitals have revenge for a 2-1 home loss to Montreal from a little more than three weeks ago and draw the Canadiens, who finally return home after playing seven road games in 16 days finishing up this past Saturday with a 5-3 win against the Maple Leafs in Toronto. A team returning home from such a long road trip often faces many distractions so focus becomes an issue. The Capitals also have a strong history in Montreal winning in nine of their last 10 visits. This is one of the few games where the Canadiens won't have a strong goalie edge. T.J. Oshie may not play for the Capitals, but the Canadiens are in far worse physical shape with numerous injuries, including a knee injury to Alex Galchenyuk and hand injury to Brendan Gallagher.
01-09-17	Troy State +6.5 v. Georgia State		80-77	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
Troy is the more experienced and better team here. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Trojans played USC tough and is averaging nearly 80 points during their last five games. Troy also is a much better free throw shooting team than Georgia State, which is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Panthers are still trying to recover from losing several key players from a year ago.
01-08-17	Magic v. Lakers -125	Top	95-111	Win	100	10 h 28 m	Show
The Lakers are playing better with two victories in their last three games, including a 27-point blowout home win against the Heat in their last game two days ago. Now the Lakers are in line to treat their fans to a Sunday home win against a foe they should beat and will be highly motivated to beat. The lottery-bound Magic have a bottom-five offense and are traveling cross country following a tough seven-point home loss to the Rockets on Friday night. Orlando is 7-18-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Magic also have only covered once during their last eight road games versus the Lakers. The Lakers should be pumped after losing 109-90 to the Magic on Dec. 23. The Magic took advantage of the Lakers missing much-improved Julius Randle and finishing a seven-game, 12-day road swing. LA had nothing left in the tank for that matchup. They should have far more energy than the Magic this time around.
01-08-17	Pistons v. Blazers OVER 214.5		125-124	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
The Pistons are averaging 112.6 points during their last three games. They certainly can take advantage of Portland's 28th-ranked defense. However, the Pistons' defense is in poor form giving up an average of 117 points in their last two games. Portland has the offense to take advantage especially with Damian Lillard back at point guard and looking sharp in his return. Only six teams average more points per game than Portland.
01-08-17	Lightning v. Penguins UNDER 6		2-6	Loss	-110	5 h 14 m	Show
It's rare to see a total this high on an NHL game. A lot has to break right for seven goals to be scored. There are some unusual circumstances for this matchup, which favor a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker envisions. This is an earlier than usual start time plus the Penguins have been idle for eight days! They last played in December. So there has to be a huge rust factor. The Lightning, on the other hand, are playing in their third game in four days and second in two nights. The under has cashed the last four times Tampa Bay has played without rest. The Lightning will look to guard against the much fresher and healthier Penguins by slowing things down and playing a tight checking game. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy also has been playing well with Ben Bishop out.
01-08-17	Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10.5		80-66	Loss	-110	13 h 10 m	Show
OK, pile on Northern Iowa. The Panthers are just 5-9 and averaging a puny 63.8 points a game. Wichita State is coming off consecutive blowout home victories against Bradley and Drake. All of this, along with early market activity, has caused the Panthers to be undervalued here. Northern Iowa still plays outstanding defense. They are an excellent 'dog in this spot being home, well-coached and playing at their slow pace desperate for a conference victory. The Panthers are going to do everything it takes to control tempo here. This is a team that did win 23 games last season and knows how to win big games. Wichita State isn't so dominant on the road. The Shockers failed to cover in their lone Missouri Valley Conference away game beating Indiana State by eight as a 10 1/2-point favorite. Indiana State is worse than Northern Iowa. Only twice in the past 10 games against Wichita State have the Panthers lost by double-digits at home. The Shockers' non-home victories have come versus suspect defensive teams not elite opponents such as Michigan State and Louisville.
01-08-17	Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5	Top	12-30	Win	100	145 h 31 m	Show
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams.
01-07-17	Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43	Top	6-26	Loss	-108	51 h 5 m	Show
The Lions' defense has been torched for 73 points and 823 yards in the last two weeks facing the Cowboys and Packers in prime time games. It's not a fluke. Detroit's defense lacks playmakers, doesn't pressure the quarterback - just two sacks the past two games in 62 drop-backs - and has a vulnerable secondary. Russell Wilson is healthy and dangerous as ever. Seattle's defense, though, isn't as good as the past three years. The Seahawks are minus injured Earl Thomas, the best safety in football, and lacks the depth they've had before. Matthew Stafford is adept at throwing to a number of different targets. That negates some of Richard Sherman's dominance. The weather isn't going to be bad either with temperatures in the 30's. Prop Bet: Russell Wilson Over 1 1/2 TD Passes Wilson should have a big game against a banged-up, ineffective Lions secondary that surrendered the highest percentage of completions of any NFL by a wide margin. Darius Slay is Detroit's lone decent defensive back and he's far from 100 percent dealing with a groin injury. Wilson can't trust his ground attack so he'll be throwing a lot here.
01-07-17	Jazz -3 v. Wolves		94-92	Loss	-110	15 h 42 m	Show
Look for the Jazz to make it five straight victories against the Timberwolves. Utah is rested and plays far better defense than Minnesota giving up an average of 10 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves played last night at Washington. This is a stop-the-pain game for Utah, which has lost its last two games playing on the road against the Celtics and Raptors. The Jazz are at the Grizzlies on Sunday. This is Utah's chance to beat a much lesser foe.
01-07-17	Knicks v. Pacers -7		109-123	Win	100	7 h 46 m	Show
The timing is bad here for the Knicks playing for the third time in four days. The Knicks are off a grueling home-and-away series against the Bucks, who they beat 116-111, in Milwaukee last night. Star power forward Kristaps Porzingis returned from a three-game absence caused by an Achilles injury to help spark the Knicks. However, his minutes are likely to be limited playing without rest. The Knicks are careful with their prized young star. The Knicks catch the Pacers playing their best ball. Indiana is looking to win a season-best fifth game in a row. Indiana is averaging 117.5 points during its win streak. The Knicks are allowing 112.1 points during their last seven games. The Pacers have been bad on the road, but excellent at home winning 14 of 19 games. New York has lost eight in a row at Indiana.
01-07-17	Rangers +113 v. Blue Jackets	Top	5-4	Win	113	6 h 1 m	Show
Expect a Columbus letdown after the Capitals snapped the Blue Jackets' 16-game win streak two days ago. It's human nature to let down after a long streak has been ended. That's likely to be the case for Columbus. The Rangers are playing well. They've won seven of their last eight road games and have defeated the Blue Jackets seven of the last eight times, too. New York has won 14 of 20 road games this season. They are a clear bet-on team.
01-07-17	Furman +9 v. Chattanooga		64-80	Loss	-110	12 h 6 m	Show
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season.
01-07-17	Youngstown State v. Wright State OVER 153.5		80-75	Win	100	11 h 14 m	Show
Youngstown State ranks 314th defensively. Wright State could score 90 here especially since it is playing more up-tempo under its new coach. The oddsmaker made this total lower than anticipated based on Wright State scoring only 55 points against Cleveland State, a much different foe than Youngstown State. The Penguins can get their share of points, too, thanks to guard Cameron Morse, who averages more than 22 points a game, and a pair of big men who each are making better than 58 percent of their field goals. The over has cashed five of the last seven times the teams have met.
01-06-17	Flames -113 v. Canucks		2-4	Loss	-113	10 h 35 m	Show
The Canucks have been playing above their heads. Look for them to fall back to Earth here. Vancouver is on an unlikely five-game win streak - with four of the victories coming by one goal. Calgary is playing well, too, winning four its last five and has the more dynamic offense. The Flames are at their best when taking on sub .500 foes winning 10 of the past 11 times against them. I like the way Calgary's special teams are performing - doing well on the power play and killing off 29 of their last 31 penalties during the past seven games. Calgary is the superior team. Vancouver has been getting by with outstanding goal tending, but that isn't going to continue.
01-06-17	Knicks +5.5 v. Bucks		116-111	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule. New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot. The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
01-06-17	76ers +11.5 v. Celtics	Top	106-110	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. It's a plus if Embiid plays here, but I like the 76ers even without him. Philly has covered five of its last seven road games. The Celtics are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Boston hosts New Orleans on Saturday so the backdoor could be open for the 76ers if the game should get out of hand, which I doubt happens. The 76ers actually have a winning spread and are playing well with two straight victories. Only twice in their last 14 games have the 76ers lost by more than 11 points.
01-06-17	Wolves v. Wizards OVER 211		105-112	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
Both teams are well below average defensively and are fully rested having last been in action three days ago. That combination should produce a high octane, up-and-down game with a lot of scoring. Minnesota and Washington each rank among the bottom-five in defensive field goal percentage. The Timberwolves have allowed 112 or more points in five of their last nine road matchups. Washington has produced triple digits in 17 of its past 21 games. John Wall is coming off a huge December and Bradley Beal is healthy again and shooting well. The over has cashed in 13 of the Wizards' last 18 games.
01-05-17	Suns v. Mavs -6	Top	102-95	Loss	-104	10 h 12 m	Show
Prideful, veteran and now healthy at last, Dallas is coming on. Dallas is 9-11 in its last 20 games after opening 2-13. Dallas rolled past the Lakers and Wizards and lost by singe-digits to the Warriors in their last three games. The Suns are 4-16 on the road playing for the third in four days, while this is just the Mavericks' second game in six days. The Mavericks swept the Suns last season winning by an average of 13 points. This is an opponent they have the confidence and veteran savvy to handle - and cover a mid-size margin.
01-05-17	Davidson +1.5 v. George Washington		69-73	Loss	-110	5 h 29 m	Show
Sharp money has come on Davidson and I agree. The Wildcats have a strong recent history in this spread range covering eight of the last 10 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wildcats also have covered 29 of the last 41 times on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. George Washington has covered just one of its last seven home games. The Wildcats are highly motivated having lost straight-up as an 11-point home favorite against Richmond in their last game.
01-05-17	Old Dominion v. Marshall -160		86-90	Win	100	5 h 15 m	Show
Marshall has yet to lose at home this season. The Thundering Herd have always been tough at home covering 72 percent of their last 26 home contests. Marshall beat Old Dominion twice last season, including winning by 17 points at home on a short spread such as this one. The Monarchs have been having trouble shooting making less than 37 percent from the floor and just 61 percent from the free throw line.
01-05-17	Blue Jackets v. Capitals -128		0-5	Win	100	7 h 40 m	Show
What does it tell you that the Columbus Blue Jackets have won 16 in a row - yet are underdogs to the Capitals? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. The Capitals are the right side here. Yes, kudos to the Blue Jackets on their great streak. But Columbus hasn't played a lot of top teams during its winning streak. The Capitals have the skaters, offense and goaltender to end that streak not to mention home ice. Add it up and it's worth laying extra juice to back them. Washington is playing well, too, going 10-2-3 with three consecutive victories. The Capitals have double revenge and haven't forgotten the last time they met when a bogus high stick penalty allowed the Blue Jackets to pull out a victory with less than a minute left.
01-04-17	Coyotes +130 v. Canucks		0-3	Loss	-100	12 h 55 m	Show
On paper, it's hard to make a case for Arizona. The Coyotes have lost seven in a row. Vancouver has won four straight, including knocking off the Kings, Ducks and Oilers. But this matchup is fraught with danger for the Canucks. It's the middle of a three-game homestand for them. The Canucks host Calgary on Friday. That's a short revenge game for the Canucks, who lost 4-1 to the Flames on Dec. 23. Vancouver is playing for the fourth time in six days. The Canucks are 1-4 the last five times they've played a fourth game in six days. Arizona is fresh having last played on Saturday. The Coyotes have double revenge. They are going to have a lot of pent-up energy. They should be a very live 'dog here against a foe that isn't exactly a powerhouse being tied for the third-fewest points in the Western Conference.
01-04-17	Thunder v. Hornets UNDER 209	Top	112-123	Loss	-110	16 h 23 m	Show
Russell Westbrook leads the NBA in scoring and is averaging a triple-double. So it's easy to think of Oklahoma City as being a high-scoring, over-the-total team. Truth be told, though, the Thunder are far more of an under team. The under has cashed in 60 percent of their games this season. The under has cashed in seven of the Thunder's last nine road games. I see that pattern continuing here with Oklahoma City playing at Charlotte. The Hornets rank in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage. Westbrook is shooting 39.2 percent from the floor in Oklahoma City's losses. The Thunder opened as underdogs to the Hornets. Charlotte hasn't played good defense in its last two games - losses to the Cavaliers and Bulls. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford stresses defense and he called his team's defense soft after the latest loss. That stings his prideful team. So expect a strong, intense, defensive effort from the Hornets here. Charlotte has a number of versatile defenders to slow down Westbrook. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb either have very good quickness, or excellent length, to bother Westbrook. The Hornets are geared toward a half-court game, too. Oklahoma City is miscast as an offensive power because of Westbrook's extraordinary season. However, the under has cashed in 13 of Oklahoma City's last 17 games, including the past four. If you discount the Thunder surrendering 114 points to the Grizzlies - in a game in which the sizzling Grizzlies made 59.1 percent of their 3-point shots - Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 95 points in its last four games.
01-03-17	Grizzlies -3 v. Lakers	Top	102-116	Loss	-110	12 h 32 m	Show
The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here. Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games. The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers.
01-03-17	Kings v. Sharks -140	Top	2-1	Loss	-140	23 h 59 m	Show
These two teams just met on Saturday in LA. The Kings outplayed the Sharks winning, 3-2. Now it's the Shark's turn. San Jose has won 13 of 17 home games this season and 21 of 28 going back to last season. The Sharks had won four in a row until losing to the Kings. The Kings had lost three straight until defeating San Jose. The Kings are a bad road team losing 14 of 21, including five of their last six.. They do not have a good history at San Jose either losing 68 percent of the time during the past 53 games there. The Kings also are 1-4 the past five times when playing in the second of a home-and-home series. If the Kings start Jeff Zatkoff in goal than the Sharks will have a major goaltending edge.
01-03-17	Jets +150 v. Lightning		6-4	Win	150	20 h 27 m	Show
I'll take this high price in the belief that Winnipeg has bounce back ability. The Jets are an up-and-down team with a lot of talented young goal scorers. They were 4-1 in their last five games - including a road victory against the Blackhawks - until losing consecutive home games to the Blue Jackets and Islanders. Now the Jets are on a three-game road trip starting here against a banged-up Tampa Bay team minus a number of injured players, including star Steven Stamkos. The Jets are putting a lot of emphasis on opening their trip with a victory following those two disappointing home defeats. Tampa Bay is off a 3-1 home win against Carolina. The Lightning are 1-6 following a victory.
01-02-17	Pelicans v. Cavs UNDER 218.5	Top	82-90	Win	100	2 h 34 m	Show
The Cavaliers are down some key firepower in this matchup with Kyrie Irving ruled out. J.R. Smith already is out. The Pelicans have been playing better defense giving up an average of 95.2 points in their last four games. The under has cashed the past six times the Pelicans have played a team from the Eastern Conference.
01-02-17	Western Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 52	Top	16-24	Loss	-110	46 h 3 m	Show
Look for offense to trump defense here even though these teams have excellent defensive numbers. Both teams have sharp offensive coaches in P.J. Fleck for Western Michigan and Paul Chryst for Wisconsin. Western Michigan's explosive offense averages 43.5 points per game and nearly 500 yards. The Broncos' terrific offense kept their defense off the field for long stretches. Western's Michigan's defense isn't as good as it's numbers because of this. I see the Broncos getting their points against Wisconsin. The Badgers have a defensive weakness that Western Michigan quarterback Zack Terrell can exploit and that's the deep pass. Terrell averages nearly 10 yards a throw and had 32 touchdown passes. Terrell has a top receiver in pro prospect Corey Davis, who caught 91 passes for 1,427 yards and 18 touchdowns. Wisconsin's secondary was lit up in its last game by Penn State. Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley completed 71 percent of his passes for 384 yards and four touchdowns in Penn State's 38-31 victory. Non-league opponents aren't used to Western Michigan's powerful offense , a factor why the over is 10-4-1 in the Broncos' last 15 non-league contests. The Badgers put up 31 points against Penn State without their starting quarterback, Alex Hornibrook, who had a head injury. Hornibrook is healthy and will play against Western Michigan. Hornibrook isn't a star, but is enough of a passer to take advantage if Western Michigan sells out to stop the run. The Badgers' strength is running talented Corey Clement behind another outstanding Wisconsin offensive line. Clement has gotten healthy and lived up to his vast potential rushing for at least 100 yards in seven of his last eight games. Look for the Badgers to wear down the Broncos with their big line and physical ground attack.
01-01-17	Packers -3 v. Lions	Top	31-24	Win	100	107 h 57 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
01-01-17	Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos	Top	6-24	Loss	-110	139 h 26 m	Show
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
01-01-17	Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers	Top	25-23	Loss	-105	138 h 4 m	Show
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
01-01-17	Saints +7 v. Falcons		32-38	Win	100	136 h 13 m	Show
Matt Ryan is in the MVP discussion and the Falcons are going to score the most points in franchise history. But the Saints also are going to get their points here - if not score more than Atlanta. As outstanding as Ryan has been this season, he's trumped by Drew Brees, who has thrown for more yards and touchdown passes than Ryan. The Saints offense is operating at peak efficiency scoring on 14 of their last 22 possession during their last two games against respectable defenses the Buccaneers and Cardinals. New Orleans has scored 79 points during the last two weeks. New Orleans is improved on defense, too. The Saints have held their last 12 opponents to 120 yards or less rushing. A return to health of underrated Sheldon Rankins and Dannell Ellerbee have upgraded their defense. This is a long-time rivalry. So the Saints aren't going to lack motivation in what could be the final time Sean Payton and Brees are together. New Orleans has covered eight of its last nine road games. Atlanta hasn't been dominant at home with a 4-3 mark and losing spread mark. The Saints have won in five of their last seven visits to Georgia Dome.
01-01-17	Cardinals -6.5 v. Rams		44-6	Win	100	47 h 5 m	Show
The Cardinals still have pride playing for Bruce Arians. They hold big matchup edges on the Rams and I expect them to show up against the Rams, who have yet to cover a spread since Jared Goff became quarterback. The Cardinals are a top heavy blitzing team. Goff has yet to display good pocket presence. I see him skittish in the pocket here. The Rams just want this season to end. Carson Palmer has been playing better and David Johnson is a monster who can set a bunch of records here. LA has allowed 16 touchdown passes in their last six games. The Rams are down their best wideout, Kenny Britt.
01-01-17	Browns v. Steelers UNDER 44		24-27	Loss	-110	135 h 28 m	Show
Locked into the No. 3 seed, the Steelers are likely to sit Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. A looming quarterback matchup of Cody Kessler versus Landry Jones, devoid of his top weapons, does not exactly bring visions of a high-scoring game. These teams combined for only 33 points during their Week 11 matchup. The Browns rank second-to-last in scoring and yards. Pittsburgh defense has been playing better since getting healthier. The Steelers have held five of their last six opponents to 20 or fewer points. Cleveland's defense has improved since landing Jamie Collins in a trade with New England. Pittsburgh's Jones is one of the poorer backup quarterbacks in the league. The weather forecast is calling for better than a 70 percent chance of showers with possible snow.
12-31-16	Grizzlies +1.5 v. Kings	Top	112-98	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
There are plenty of reasons why I like the Grizzlies to beat the Kings starting with that they are the much superior defensive team. Memphis ranks No. 1 in giving up the fewest points per 100 possessions and is No. 2 in fewest road points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Grizzlies open a four-game West Coast trip here with a lot of confidence and intensity. They lost 96-92 to the Kings at home on Dec. 16. The loss was especially tough because the Kings are coached by former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger. I like Joerger. But I also like David Fizdale, who is doing a tremendous job coaching the Grizzlies this season. Memphis just rolled past Oklahoma City, 114-80, at home on Thursday. That was a season-low in points for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook couldn't do anything against a Grizzlies defense keying on him. Westbrook had zero assists and six turnovers. The Grizzlies won that game by 34 points despite not having Mike Conley. It's a bonus if Conley plays here, but I'm fine with Memphis if he doesn't. Marc Gasol is going to play. Gasol could be the Comeback Player of the Year. The Grizzlies are 8-3 when Gasol plays and Conley doesn't. Sacramento is heavily reliant on its superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. Stop Cousins and you stop the Kings because they don't have enough good pieces especially with Rudy Gay bothered by a hip injury that has kept him out of seven of the last eight games. Portland just rolled the Kings, 102-89, at home this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers heavily focused on Cousins, holding him to 8 of 19 shooting from the floor. The rest of the Kings couldn't pick up the slack. When you have to rely on Garrett Temple and Matt Barnes for heavy scoring you're in trouble. That's the scenario I envision in this game especially given then Memphis is a far better defensive team than Portland. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 Western Conference games and are 4-1 ATS during their last five visits to Sacramento.
12-31-16	Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5		1-3	Win	112	11 h 4 m	Show
First note this game starts early, which could mean sluggish play. The Sabres are going to play with intensity here in a triple revenge spot. The Bruins just beat the Sabres, 4-2, in Buffalo on Thursday night. These teams are better than average defensively. Boston gives up the eighth-fewest goals. Tukka Rask is one of the league's top goalies and he has a strong history versus Buffalo. Only two teams score fewer goals than Buffalo. The Sabres rank 14th defensively. Boston is 23rd offensively and will be without injured David Backes, its fourth-leading goal scorer.
12-31-16	Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	18-33	Win	100	88 h 10 m	Show
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
12-30-16	Blackhawks v. Hurricanes -111		2-3	Win	100	8 h 51 m	Show
This is a tough challenge for the visiting Blackhawks and their task is made even more difficult by the situation. The Blackhawks just played last night nipping the Predators, 3-2, at Nashville. This marks the Blackhawks' third game in four days. It means the Blackhawks are likely to go with backup goalie Scott Darling and their lack of depth - made worse with Marian Hossa out with an upper body injury - become more exposed. Carolina is enjoying a tremendous home streak winning nine of its last 10 at PNC Arena. The Hurricanes should have a lot of energy having played just once this week - and that was a 3-2 road loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins two days ago when they blew a 2-1 third period lead. That was the Hurricanes' first loss in regulation during their past six games. Carolina has won nine of its last 10 at home. Chicago is 2-7-1 during its last 10 visits to Carolina. The Hurricanes swept the Blackhawks last season and own the NHL's top penalty killing unit.
12-30-16	Bulls v. Pacers -4	Top	101-111	Win	100	15 h 54 m	Show
The Pacers are in circle-the-wagons mode having dropped four in a row, including a 90-85 road loss to the Bulls this past Monday. Indiana has lost 13 of 17 on the road, but is 11-5 at home. The Pacers have won five of their last six home contests, including defeating the Clippers by 21 points and Hornets by 16 during this span. Their backcourt has gotten healthier with the return of Monta Ellis and Paul George broke out of his slump with 34 points in the Pacers' last game a road loss to the Wizards two days ago. Chicago has lost 10 of its 16 road games, including going 0-5 SU and ATS this month. This is a rare week day game, which works against the visitor. The Bulls just squeaked past the lowly Nets by two at home in their last game two days ago thanks to Jimmy Butler, who tweaked his ankle in that game and may not be 100 percent. The Bulls have failed to cover the past seven times following a victory.
12-29-16	Mavs +3 v. Lakers		101-89	Win	100	9 h 21 m	Show
The record shows the Lakers are better than the Mavericks. LA is 12-23. Dallas is 9-23. But what the overall record doesn't indicate is the Mavericks are healthier and because of that are playing better. After a brutal 3-15 start, Dallas is 6-8 in its last 14 games. The Lakers have been the opposite. They began the year surprisingly well, but are 2-13 this month. Dallas has owned the Lakers winning the last 11 times. This includes a 109-97 Dallas win at Staples Center last month when the Lakers were playing much better and Dallas was playing much worse. Andrew Bogut returned to the Mavericks' front line on Tuesday after missing 11 games. He gives Dallas much needed interior toughness. Dirk Nowitzki also is back joining veterans Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Deron Williams, who has been playing well.
12-29-16	Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3	Top	38-8	Loss	-105	18 h 12 m	Show
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
12-29-16	Bruins -130 v. Sabres		4-2	Win	100	7 h 48 m	Show
The Bruins are one of those teams that plays much better on the road than at home. That was their pattern last season and it has been this season, too. The Sabres know all about the Boston's road strength. They've lost five straight home games to the Bruins. Buffalo just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 win at Detroit two days ago. The Bruins are coming off a pair of one-goal losses. This one sets up well for Boston. The Sabres are very limited offensively and are down two of their key players with center Ryan O'Reilly and forward Evander Kane both sidelined.
12-29-16	Heat +6.5 v. Hornets		82-91	Loss	-105	6 h 45 m	Show
Charlotte isn't a team to be laying big points with and the Hornets are in a flat spot coming off an impressive blowout win against Orlando and with a look-ahead game against the Cavaliers up next. The Heat are struggling due to injuries, but point guard Goran Dragic - their second-best player - made it through today's shoot-around and is expected to play after missing Tuesday's game. Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson have flashed and are playing more consistent. They should be in line for strong games with Dragic returning to the lineup. Hassan Whiteside gives the Heat the best big man on the floor. He's having a strong season, but had a bad game on Tuesday drawing criticism. The prideful Whiteside should come up big here. Miami usually is undervalued on the road where it has covered six of the last eight times. That's the case here.
12-28-16	Kings v. Blazers +2		89-102	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
I'm not expecting Damian Lillard to play. I still like Portland in this spot even though the Trail Blazers have lost six in a row and Sacramento has won four in a row. There are reasons why the Kings are just a road favorite for the fourth time. They lack the maturity and defense to win away from their new state-of-the-art arena. The Kings are 7-11 on the road and do not have a winning spread road mark either. Portland is in revenge and circle-the-wagons mode. The Trail Blazers lost to the Kings, 126-121, eight days ago in Sacramento. Before that, though, the Trail Blazers had defeated the Kings seven consecutive games. The Kings have gotten fat off dreck with three of their last five victories coming against the Mavericks, Timberwolves and 76ers. Those three teams are a combined 26-67. Portland's last two games have been against the Raptors and Spurs. Now the Trail Blazers drop down in class. C.J. McCollum still ensures Portland has plenty of backcourt scoring and swingman Evan Turner is back from injury. The Trail Blazers have lots of fouls to deliver up front to frustrate DeMarcus Cousins.
12-28-16	Flyers +130 v. Blues		3-6	Loss	-100	8 h 55 m	Show
The Blues are tough at home. But the Flyers are 11-2-1 in their last 14 games and 7-0 the past seven times taking on a foe with a winning record. They also draw the Blues starting backup goalie Carter Hutton, who isn't one of the better second-stringers and is 0-7 in his last seven starts. This will be just his third start this month. St. Louis' defense is down this season. The Blues have given up at least three goals in five of their last seven games. The Flyers are playing better than the Blues, who come out of break 2-4-1 in their last seven games. Philadelphia has the top scoring defense in the league and is expected to get back steady two-way forward Sean Couturier back in its last lineup. He's been out since Nov. 22 with a knee injury.
12-28-16	Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh	Top	31-24	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
12-27-16	Rockets -6.5 v. Mavs		123-107	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
It's not a fluke Dallas is 0-3 versus the Rockets this season with the Mavericks' average loss being by 10 points. The Mavericks are the worst team in the NBA at defending the 3-pointer. The Rockets launch the most 3-pointers The teams just met 2 1/2 weeks ago in Houston and the Rockets won 109-87 connecting on 19 of 37 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent. The Rockets are playing well winning 12 of their last 14. Houston has the second-highest offense in the NBA at 113.5. Dallas ranks last in scoring at 94.4 points. Dallas has averaged even less than that, 92.3, in their three losses to the Rockets.
12-27-16	Sabres +115 v. Red Wings		4-3	Win	115	7 h 46 m	Show
Detroit is an easy fade as home chalk. The Red Wings have lost 12 of their 19 home games and have multiple injuries. The Red Wings are coming off holiday break with a victory, a 4-3 shootout road win against Florida. The Sabres haven't won in their last four games. They are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this game. The Sabres are the better defensive team and have an edge in goal. The Red Wings' best goalie, Jimmy Howard, is hurt. So Detroit's choice in net is either third-stringer Jared Coreau or a cold Petr Mrazek, who has given up three or more goals in his last five games and has a save percentage below 90 percent. One of Detroit's injuries is to offensive-minded defenseman Mike Green. It's an added bonus for Buffalo if Green can't skate. The Red Wings have failed to score in 36 of their last 37 power play opportunities during their last 11 games.
12-27-16	Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics		103-113	Loss	-108	7 h 14 m	Show
Memphis is the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA both in fewest points allowed per game and field goal percentage. They should not be a mid-sized underdog to the Celtics, who are a slightly above average defensive team and have covered just 33 percent of their home games. The Grizzlies have revenge for an overtime loss to the Celtics last week. Memphis also should be fired-up after playing a terrible game last night in a 112-102 loss to Orlando. The good news about that game for Memphis was none of its players reached the 30-minute mark. So the Grizzlies still should be fresh especially after being idle the two previous days. Mike Conley is back from injury and has shaken the rust off sinking 15 of 25 shots during the past two games. The Celtics have a bigger game on deck when they play the Cavaliers on Thursday.
12-27-16	Washington State -10 v. Minnesota	Top	12-17	Loss	-115	26 h 0 m	Show
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten.
12-26-16	Nuggets v. Clippers +4	Top	106-102	Push	0	10 h 4 m	Show
It's strange to see the Nuggets a road favorite against the Clippers. But the Nuggets are rested while the Clippers played last night. Denver is such a strong road favorite, though, because the Clippers are going to be without three starters - Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick. Despite all this I like the Clippers to beat the Nuggets. The Nuggets remain a lottery team. Their defense ranks among the bottom-six in points allowed and shooting percentage. The Nuggets lack consistent scoring weapons. Their strength is rebounding and DeAndre Jordan can negate that. The Clippers are going to be fired-up with their desperate injury situation and off an embarrassing 111-102 loss to the Lakers last night at Staples Center. LA still is respectable in the backcourt with veteran Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers. The Clippers have beaten the Nuggets in six of the last seven meetings, including 119-102 six days ago at home. The Clippers were minus 8 in that game. Now we have a line change of 12 points. It's too much of an adjustment. The Clippers won that game without Griffin and totally dominated Denver's backcourt.
12-26-16	Maryland v. Boston College +2		30-36	Win	100	12 h 38 m	Show
This is a good matchup for Boston College. The Eagles have an excellent run defense. Their problem is going against outstanding athletic dual-threat quarterbacks with great athletes at the skill positions. The Eagles' worst defeats have come against Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. Maryland is a much easier foe for Boston College, an opponent that is right in the Eagles' wheelhouse. The Terrapins are a typical mediocre Big Ten team that likes to run behind a big offensive line. Boston College ranks seventh in the nation in run defense. The Eagles are well acquainted with the kind of spread run game that Maryland employs. Maryland is 1-4 in its last four games with its only victory during this span occurring against 2-10 Rutgers. The Terrapins were outscored by 142 points during their last four losses.
12-25-16	Clippers -6.5 v. Lakers	Top	102-111	Loss	-110	19 h 42 m	Show
Death, taxes and the Clippers beating the Lakers. Those are about the only sure things in life. The Clippers have defeated the Lakers 11 consecutive times winning by an average of 22.6 points during the past 10 meetings. The Lakers are listed as the home team, but both teams play their home games at Staples Center so that is negated. The Clippers are furious after losing 90-88 at home to the Mavericks two days ago. They'll be ready here to pound a team they've long hated since LA has always been a Lakers town. The spot is bad for the Lakers returning home after a seven-game, two-week road trip that didn't finish until Friday night. The Lakers are not playing well after an early hot start dropping 12 of their past 13 going 3-10 ATS. They went 1-6 on their road trip. This is a cheap price to back the much superior, motivated Clippers.
12-25-16	Broncos +3 v. Chiefs	Top	10-33	Loss	-100	60 h 43 m	Show
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
12-25-16	Ravens v. Steelers -5.5		27-31	Loss	-110	56 h 44 m	Show
The Ravens caught the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was just back from his knee injury. Roethlisberger was rusty and Baltimore won, 21-14, in Week 9. Things are much different now. Roethlisberger is healthy and plays much better at Heinz Field where he's thrown 17 touchdown passes with just three interceptions. The Ravens have a strong run defense, but their secondary is vulnerable especially with top cornerback Jimmy Smith not likely to play. If the Ravens drop safeties into coverage then Le'Veon Bell is primed for a big game. If the Ravens key on Bell than Roethlisberger gets turned loose. Antonio Brown should prove highly dangerous here especially if Smith is out as expected. The Ravens lack a consistent ground attack and Joe Flacco is enduring one of his worst seasons. He's been especially brutal on the road with a 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers have held six of their last seven opponents to under 250 yards through the air. Their defense has gotten healthy and stepped up. The Steelers not only play much better at home, but they have proven strong in December covering 12 of the last 14 times.
12-24-16	Bengals v. Texans -119	Top	10-12	Win	100	91 h 47 m	Show
No team gives up fewer yards per game than Houston. The Texans have been held back by the atrocious quarterback play of Brock Osweiler, the $72 million dollar bust. Bill O'Brien finally has seen the light benching Osweiler for Tom Savage. Now I'm not nominating Savage for All-Pro status, but he's a clear upgrade on Osweiler. Savage is a downfield threat and makes DeAndre Hopkins, a top-10 wide receiver talent, viable again. The Texans are trying to win a division title. They are home, have the superior defense and stronger motivation. The Bengals are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in five seasons. They just lost a close game to their arch-rival, the Steelers, this past Sunday. Now they have to travel on Christmas week for a game that doesn't mean anything to them. The Bengals are 1-5 SU and ATS during their last six road games with their lone away victory during this span coming against the winless Browns. The most points the Bengals have scored on the road s is 23 and that occurred against Cleveland and the 4-10 Jets in Week 1. In their other five road games, the Bengals average 16.2 points a game. Cincinnati management showed that it doesn't care about winning this game by making the decision to hold out A.J. Green, who had been cleared to play.
12-24-16	Titans v. Jaguars +5		17-38	Win	100	83 h 24 m	Show
The Titans have been a nice story this season. Definite improvement is there. But the oddsmaker has gotten ahead of things by making the Titans this big of a road favorite. Tennessee has a losing spread mark when laying points. The Titans have won three in a row - by a combined 11 points. They are off huge victories against the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos and the Chiefs on the road last week winning on a 53-yard field goal at the gun. The Titans are tied with Houston for the AFC South Division lead. The Titans host the Texans next week. So it's difficult to trust the young Titans, who haven't been in this kind of letdown spot before, to cover more than a field goal on the road in an obvious flat spot. The key here is accessing Jacksonville. The Jaguars average 18.7 points a game, which ranks 27th. However, the Jaguars have the fourth-best pass defense in the league and give up the seventh-fewest yards. Their defense is sneaky good. The Jaguars' talent level is far superior to their 2-12 record. Jacksonville has lost seven times by one touchdown or less. Close losses and bad coaching have killed the Jaguars. Interim coach Doug Marrone can't help but be an improvement on Gus Bradley, who was fired following Sunday's one-point road loss to the Texans. Bradley was the worst coach in the NFL in my view. The Jaguars are 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the past five times hosting the Titans. Yes, the Titans are the best they've been in at least five years, but they are far from dominant with huge weaknesses in the secondary and wide receiver. Jacksonville should be fired up for their new coach in their final home game of the season playing a division foe that whipped them. 36-22, back in Week 8.
12-24-16	Redskins v. Bears OVER 47		41-21	Win	100	29 h 53 m	Show
Now that the weather forecast is fine - temperatures in the 30's with little wind - I feel comfortable going over this more-than-fair total. The Redskins have the No. 2 passing team in the NFL. They have put up 26 or more points on a number of defenses as good if not far better than the injury-racked Bears defense, including the Giants, Lions, Eagles (twice), Vikings, Packers and Cowboys. Matt Barkley has done far better than expected for Chicago. It's safe to say now that he's moved the Bears offense better than Jay Cutler and now he has Chicago's top receiver, Alshon Jeffery, back from suspension. Jordan Howard has been a consistent running threat rushing for at least 77 yards in each of the last seven games going over 100 yards three times during this span. Washington gives up nearly 25 points per game and has yielded the fourth-most yards per game.
12-23-16	Spurs -125 v. Blazers	Top	110-90	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
Not only is there a class difference here, but the Spurs are off a loss last night to the Clippers that ended a five-game winning streak so motivation shouldn't be a problem for them. The Spurs are 21-10 ATS following a defeat. Portland has lost eight of its last nine games and is just 2-7 ATS during this span. San Antonio is 15-2 on the road this season. Portland is 3-9 ATS the past 12 times playing an above .500 opponent.
12-23-16	Kings v. Stars -130		2-3	Win	100	9 h 59 m	Show
The Stars have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. But the spot sets up well for the revenge-minded Stars, who lost in overtime to the Kings at home on Oct. 20. The Kings are playing in their seventh consecutive road game. This is their sixth game in nine days. Dallas has been home for the past 12 days. This is only the Stars' second game in six days. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are too good to be kept down this long. I see them and their teammates being the fresher and faster team, which will make the difference.
12-23-16	Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5	Top	20-24	Loss	-130	11 h 3 m	Show
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him.
12-22-16	Texas-Arlington v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 141.5	Top	80-77	Loss	-110	13 h 15 m	Show
Texas Arlington and Loyola-Marymount are a combined 12-1-1 to the under this season. Texas-Arlington has the No. 1 3-point defense in the country. The under has cashed in 21 of the Mavericks' last 28 road games. Texas-Arlington showed how strong its defense is holding Saint Mary's to just 51 points two games ago. The Mavericks haven't surrendered more than 51 points during each of their last three games. Marymount isn't a good long range shooting team and the Lions also don't draw many fouls. Both teams turn the ball over a lot. The pace isn't going to be fast either for this match. The Mavericks are going to be hard-pressed to perform well at this small venue where Marymount held Connecticut to 65 points in a 65-62 loss earlier this season.
12-22-16	Maple Leafs -143 v. Avalanche		6-0	Win	100	10 h 53 m	Show
Colorado has failed to get things turned around and now has injuries. The Maple Leafs have a lot of young talent that has started to blossom. It's a big revenge game, too, for the Maple Leafs who lost 3-1 to Colorado at home 11 days ago. Semyon Varlamov may have had his finest game stopping 52 shots. The Maple Leafs had 24 more shots on goal than Colorado in that contest. The Avalanche has lost seven straight home games. The last time they won at home was back on Nov. 15. Overall, the Avalanche has only two victories in their last 13 games.
12-22-16	Lakers v. Heat -4		107-115	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
The Heat are healthier these days and draw the Lakers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. Miami has covered 11 of the last 14 times when hosting an opponent with a losing road record. The Lakers are 1-10 in their last 11 games and really dragging giving up an average of 118 points in their last two games. The Lakers just lost a key bench player, too, with Larry Nance Jr. suffering a knee injury during the Lakers' last game, a 117-113 loss to Charlotte two days ago. The Heat rank eighth defensively holding foes to 101.6 points. That point total was just boosted up following a 136-130 Miami double overtime loss to the Magic this past Tuesday. The Heat certainly were not pleased with that outcome, nor surrendering that many points. The Heat have defeated the Lakers in seven of their last eight meetings. Miami also is 6-2 ATS hosting the Lakers.
12-22-16	Warriors v. Nets +14.5		117-101	Loss	-108	9 h 19 m	Show
The Nets can be feisty at home where they have covered 61 percent of their games and have won straight-up the past two times defeating the Lakers and Nuggets by 10 and 5 points, respectively. Of course Golden State represents a far stiffer test for the Nets. But the Warriors don't have a good track record covering in these type of situations and have much more challenging games on deck. This is Golden State's first road game in more than a week. The Warriors come in fat and happy having just swept a three-game homestand destroying the opposition by an average of 29.3 points per game. Following this matchup, the Warriors play at the Pistons on Friday and then an NBA Finals rematch against the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Christmas Day, which is the most anticipated and biggest game of the season. So the Warriors aren't likely to go all out here, nor play their star players a lot of minutes. This leaves the backdoor wide open for the Nets, who love to hoist 3-pointers and rank eighth in scoring at 106.6 points a game. The Nets' backcourt is stable now with the return from injury of starting point guard Jeremy Lin, who is shooting well hitting 16 of 31 shots from the floor in his last three games. The Warriors are 2-12 ATS the past 14 times playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400. They also have failed to cover eight of the last 12 times when laying double-digits. The Warriors beat the Nets in both meetings last season, winning by an average of 12 points. That's less than the spread here. The Nets are off a 12-point road loss to the Raptors from two nights ago. Brooklyn is 8-0 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
12-22-16	Bruins +104 v. Panthers		3-1	Win	104	8 h 20 m	Show
Once again this season the Bruins are playing better on the road than at home. I like Boston to bounce back form a 4-2 loss to the Islanders two days ago to beat the Panthers. The Bruins have a strong history versus Florida winning 21 of the last 26 times. Boston is 11-3 in its last 14 visits to the Panthers. The Panthers have a lot of problems with Boston goalie Tuukka Rask, who is 17-3-1 lifetime against the Panthers with 1.55 GAA and .949 save percentage. He has stopped 60 of 64 shots by the Panthers this season. It's a big added plus if David Pastrnak is back in the Bruins' lineup today as expected.
12-21-16	BYU -10 v. Wyoming	Top	24-21	Loss	-110	48 h 57 m	Show
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21. BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns.
12-21-16	Kings v. Jazz -7	Top	94-93	Loss	-108	8 h 24 m	Show
The Jazz have the discipline and defense to blow out the Kings. The timing also is right for this to occur. Sacramento is coming off a thrilling and satisfying comeback home victory against the Trail Blazers last night. DeMarcus Cousins scored 55 points after nearly getting thrown out of the game. That was a tough battle for the Kings. Now they play for the third time in four days and without rest in high altitude. The Kings are playing without injured Rudy Gay, their second-best player, too. While the Kings are now 6-6 at home, they are 5-11 on the road. Their road spread mark is better at 7-9, but still .under 500. Sacramento also has failed to cover the last five times following a victory. Utah usually takes care of business against lesser teams. The well-coached Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times they've played opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Jazz are the top defensive team in the NBA. They surrender nine points fewer per game than Sacramento. Utah should be fired-up after getting embarrassed, 104-74, at Golden State last night. The plus to that blowout was no Utah player had to log big minutes. Prior to that loss, Utah had won seven of eight, including four in a row. The Jazz have won 10 of their last 15 in Salt Lake City.
12-20-16	Pacers v. Knicks -5	Top	111-118	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
New York has covered eight of its last 10 home games. The Knicks are well rested having last played on Saturday. They are expected to get back point guard Derrick Rose, too. He had missed New York's last two games with a back injury. Rose isn't as good as when he entered the league with the Bulls because of injuries. However, he's still highly valuable because of his scoring and leadership. New York is 13-10 with him and 1-3 without him. Rose's presence not only gives New York a third scoring option to go with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, but adds depth to the backcourt where backup point guard Brandon Jennings can come off the bench. The Pacers are 4-10 SU and ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Madison Square Garden. Indiana also carries a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in seven days and second in two nights. The Pacers nipped the Wizards, 107-105, at home Monday night on a short jumper by Thaddeus Young with less than a second left. The Pacers' three best players logged big minutes in that victory. Paul George played more than 40 minutes. Jeff Teague played more than 39 minutes and Young logged more than 37 minutes. The Pacers are short-handed, too, with Monta Ellis out. Indiana has failed to cover 20 of the last 28 times when playing without rest.
12-20-16	Sabres v. Panthers UNDER 5		3-4	Loss	-109	8 h 47 m	Show
The Sabres are the 10th-best defensive team in the NHL, but rank 28th offensively. That makes them a good under club. So it's no shock that the under is 15-6-4 in Buffalo's last 25 games. This series has an under history, too, when the teams play in Florida. The over only has cashed four times during the last 26 times the Panthers have hosted the Sabres. Buffalo has made changes to three of its four lines. So it might take a while for the adjustment to click in. That favors the under so does the Florida rust factor. The Panthers haven't played since last Friday. They are 7-2-2 to the under when playing on three or more day's rest. Florida has been held to three or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 games. The Panthers have killed off 34 of 36 power plays since Tom Rowe became head coach.
12-19-16	Troy State v. Wyoming -8		66-72	Loss	-110	3 h 49 m	Show
Troy has covered just two of its last eight road contests. It's Troy's third road game in six days. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS the past 10 times they've been underdogs. Troy nearly stunned USC, though, in its last game losing 82-77 as 22-point 'dogs on Saturday. Wyoming has been home since Nov. 26. The Cowboys have won five straight. This is the final game of a six-game homestand. Wyoming should be back to full strength for this matchup as it was missing three plays during its last game reducing bench strength.
12-19-16	Ducks v. Maple Leafs -125	Top	3-2	Loss	-125	7 h 45 m	Show
Anaheim is playing its fourth road game in seven days. The trip is starting to take a toll as the Ducks lost 6-4 to the Red Wings two days ago. Now they face a Maple Leafs unit that is getting good goal tending and ready to break loose offensively. The Maple Leafs have been home for nine days and are off a confidence-building 2-1 overtime win against the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins on Saturday. The Maple Leafs had 50 shots on goal against Pittsburgh. They easily could have scored five goals. The Maple Leafs have fired at least 37 shots on goal during all but two of their last seven games. The Ducks are an average defensive team with below average goalies. Toronto's rookies already have accumulated 100 points in 30 games. The Maple Leafs have exceptional young talent and that talent is manifesting itself now. There is bad blood between the Maple Leafs and their former coach Randy Carlyle, who coaches the Ducks. Toronto should be highly motivated for this game.
12-18-16	Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers	Top	19-16	Win	100	48 h 56 m	Show
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
12-18-16	Kings v. Bruins -120		0-1	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
The Bruins aren't a great home team. They will be without leading goal scorer David Pastrnak and their excellent goalie, Tuukka Rask, has cooled off this month after going 12-3-1 during October and November. Yet there are huge factors why the Bruins are the right side here. There is the revenge factor. The Kings embarrassed Boston, 9-2, last season at TD Garden. Then there is the fatigue factor working against Los Angeles. The Kings will be playing for the third time in four days after beating the Red Wings, 4-1 on Thursday, and the Penguins in overtime, 1-0, on Friday. This is more like a third game in three days scenario for the Kings because it's a very early start time.
12-18-16	Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs		19-17	Win	100	45 h 31 m	Show
This is a bad matchup for Kansas City made worse by cold weather conditions. The Titans have the necessary ground attack to take advantage of the Chiefs' mediocre run defense made far more ineffective by star linebacker Derrick Johnson being out. Tennessee owns edges at running back, quarterback and offensive line. Kansas City may be the luckiest team in the NFL. The Chiefs are 10-3 despite being outgained by an average of nearly 90 yards during their last six games. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Kansas City has scored either a defensive touchdown or special teams touchdown in four of its last five games. The Chiefs are a plus 11 in takeaways/giveaways. They need turnovers to win. But Titans rising star quarterback Marcus Mariota hasn't committed a turnover in his last three games while throwing for multiple touchdown in eight of his last nine games. The Titans are expected to get back their best defensive player in lineman Jurrell Casey. Tennessee's weakness is a vulnerable secondary. But Alex Smith's strength isn't as a downfield passer. Smith isn't helped either by freezing weather. This is going to come down to who runs the ball better and I'll take DeMarco Murray and Mariota plus these points against Spencer Ware and Alex Smith.
12-18-16	Packers -5.5 v. Bears		30-27	Loss	-110	44 h 29 m	Show
Frightful weather isn't enough to stop the Packers from covering against the Bears. Chicago is just too beat-up and inexperienced at quarterback with Matt Barkley to stay with the Packers, who are starting to peak. Barkley is a Southern California kid who isn't accustomed to playing in weather that will have a wind chill factor of below zero. He doesn't have the skill level or weapons to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. The Bears do get Alshon Jeffery back from suspension. Barkley and Jeffery have never worked together, though. The Packers' offensive line and defense have gotten healthier coinciding with their three-game winning and covering streak against the Eagles, Texans and Seahawks. Since Week 11, the Packers haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game. The Bears are missing six starters on defense because of injuries and suspensions. They only have 10 takeaways, which ranks 30th. Green Bay has won six in a row at Soldier Field beating Bears teams much better than this current edition.
12-18-16	Browns +10 v. Bills		13-33	Loss	-105	44 h 28 m	Show
The Bills are playing too bad and are too dysfunctional to be laying double-digits to any opponent. Buffalo is 2-5 in its last seven games and just playing the string out after missing the playoffs for an NFL-high 17th consecutive season. Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor both are likely out the door following the season. The Browns desperately want to avoid a winless season. They are not outclassed in this matchup. The Bills have surrendered 21 or more points in six of their last seven games. Robert Griffin III is the Browns' best quarterback and he won't be rusty after playing last week. Griffin has some decent weapons, too, with Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Gary Barnridge, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, who has looked his best when Griffin has been the quarterback due to Griffin's dual threat capability. The Bills could be without Kyle Williams, one of their best defensive players and a key run defender.
12-17-16	Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette	Top	28-21	Win	100	95 h 53 m	Show
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
12-17-16	Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico OVER 61.5		20-23	Loss	-110	88 h 55 m	Show
This total falls much lower than what I envisioned. New Mexico is the top rushing team in the nation. San Antonio plays average run defense and yields nearly 29 points per game. San Antonio averages 30 points, though, and can exploit the Lobos' 95th-ranked defense using their outstanding running back tandem of Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes, who combined for nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Roadrunners quarterback Dalton Strum can both run and throw. He's accounted for 22 touchdowns. New Mexico has gone over the total in 12 of its last 14 games.
12-16-16	Long Beach State v. Oregon State UNDER 135.5		71-67	Loss	-105	12 h 11 m	Show
Oregon State really misses injured forward Tres Tinkle, out with a broken wrist. The Beavers should play with great defensive intensity here after losing at home to Savannah State. The team held a fiery team meeting following that loss. Both teams turn the ball over frequently. Neither team plays high tempo either. Long Beach State doesn't have great defensive numbers, but that's because it's played an extremely hard schedule. Note, too, this game is being played in Portland, a neutral site. That's a plus for the under.