Patrick Corbin has a good recent history against the Giants and has shown recent signs of regaining his All-Star status of a couple of years ago. But backing the Diamondbacks is mainly a fade on Jake Peavy.
Peavy was a great pitcher when he was with San Diego. But that was seven years ago. Now he shouldn't be in a major league starting rotation. He's given up four or more runs in five of seven starts with an 8.47 ERA. That ERA shoots up to 14.25 when you just go with his three road starts - all losses. Since 2014, Peavy is 2-16 with a 5.32 ERA before the All-Star break. 
Peavy has a 7.20 lifetime ERA against Arizona in three starts. The Giants are down setup man Sergio Romo and have bullpen fatigue issues making it worse for Peavy. 
Corbin has won his last two starts versus the Giants holding them scoreless in 13 innings. He's also pitching with an extra day of rest. Arizona is 6-1 the past seven times Corbin has pitched on five day's rest.  

Aaron Nola is an ace, but he's not being priced like one here pitching at home against the Reds and journeyman Tim Adleman. Cincinnati is 2-11 on the road outscored by more than three runs per game on average away from home. Nola is going for his fifth straight quality start. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five home games. 

The Phillies' bullpen has been huge this season while the Reds' relievers are having one of the worst seasons in baseball history. The Reds also will be without Billy Hamilton, who was placed on the bereavement list Friday. 

The Padres are starting Luis Perdomo, who is filling in for Andrew Cashner. If you thought Cashner was bad, wait to you see Perdomo, who has a 9.88 ERA and is making his first big league start. The Padres don't have a strong bullpen, but it's going to get plenty of work in this game.
Perdomo is a Rule 5 pick, who hadn't pitched above Class A. He's been stashed away in the bullpen where he's allowed 26 hits in 13 2/3 innings with opposing batters hitting .413 against him.  

The Brewers are going with Wily Peralta, who has a 6.75 ERA and a 7.45 lifetime ERA in two starts against the Padres. The over has cashed in nine of Peralta's last 11 stars.
On top of this, there is a wind blowing out to right field 19-20 mph and Manny Gonzalez is slated to be behind home plate. The over is 52-39 in his games since 2013. There have been only two unders the past 12 times Gonzalez has been the home plate ump.

Not only are the Red Sox swinging hot bats - scoring 51 runs in their last four games - they have their most effective pitcher going in underrated knuckleballer Steven Wright. He's had a quality start in each of his six starts this season with a 1.52 ERA. 

The Astros are countering with Lance McCullers, who is making his first start of the season after being on the DL with a shoulder injury sustained during spring training. He was only able to pitching eight innings in the minors to prepare for this start. 
Houston has lost seven of the past eight times McCullers has pitched. The Astros are a very bad road team dropping 42 of their last 60 away contests. They are 1-10 in McCullers' last 11 road outings.
Boston is 14-4 in its last 18 games and going for its sixth straight win. All of the Red Sox's victories during their current win streak have been by four or more runs. I'm not going to stand in front of the Red Sox. Everything shapes up well again for them today. 

I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong. 

Since getting blown out in Game 1, the Thunder has won three of four winning by one on the road, 14 at home and by four points on the road while losing by four points in Game 3 at home. The Thunder has outrebounded the Spurs in each of these past four games. And that's the key to this game and the series.
The Spurs and Popovich are limited in what they can plan and do when Oklahoma City is controlling the boards. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding this season. They outrebounded the Spurs by 18 boards in Tuesday's Game 5 victory. Unsung Steven Adams is coming up big. There is no fluke to Oklahoma City controlling the backboard. 
This is what Tony Parker was quoted as saying following the Spurs' Game 5 loss: "We know that's (rebounding) the key of the series. We know we have to control the boards. We made a lot of stops tonight (Tuesday), but we just can't get the boards and it's killing us in the end. Control the boards. I think that's the key of the series. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score." 
Popovich has tried to limit superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook by playing more half-court offense. The Spurs actually were getting needed stops in Game 5 holding Durant and Westbrook to a combined 20 of 48 (41.6 percent) shooting from the floor. But the Thunder still were able to upset the Spurs in San Antonio by their rebounding dominance. That's not going to change especially with the venue being moved now to Oklahoma City and the Thunder that much more confident. 
San Antonio built a 67-15 regular-season record by steamrolling lesser foes. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when facing foes with a winning mark above .600. They also have failed to cover seven of the last 10 times following a loss. 
Oklahoma City is playing its finest basketball right now. The Thunder certainly are capable of winning a championship. They are 12-4 ATS the past 16 times meeting opponents with a winning record. 
The Thunder also have covered seven of their last nine games against San Antonio and are 12-3 ATS the last 15 times hosting the Thunder. 

Cole Hamels is a lot better pitcher than Matt Latos and the Rangers are swinging hot bats scoring 40 runs in their last five games. 

Texas has been dominant at home when Hamels has taken the mound winning nine of the past 10 times. Going back to Hamels' past 18 starts, the Rangers are 16-2. 

I'll ride those numbers especially since regression is in store for Latos. 

Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. 
The Spurs have much on their plate already dealing with Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now Adams has to be accounted for, too. 
Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times on the road going against an opponent with a home winning percentage above .600. The Spurs fattened their record during the season burying patsies. They are 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
Yes, home-court means a lot. I respect the heck out of San Antonio and Gregg Popovich especially when playing at home. But this line is inflated enough to get involved with Oklahoma City. 

Like a bad penny, Sean O'Sullivan keeps showing up. The 28-year-old has found his fifth big league team since 2010 with Boston. When I last saw O'Sullivan he was burying the Phillies and any foolish fantasy baseball owner stupid enough to have him on their roster going 1-6 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 starts for Philadelphia last year. 
The Phillies banished O'Sullivan to the minors. Now he's resurfaced and will be starting today for the Red Sox. The fade line starts here. 
The A's are cold, losers of seven of their last eight. So normally I would stay away from them. But when O'Sullivan is the opposing starter - and favored - I must rethink my position especially since the A's are pitching Sean Manaea. He's Oakland's No. 2 prospect. 
This will be Manaea's third start. The southpaw has a 7.20 ERA, but has demonstrated potential and strikeout ability. I believe this is his breakthrough game where he puts it all together. The Red Sox have lost four of the past five times when facing a lefty. 

The price is right to back the superior team with the much better starter going and bullpen. 

Steven Matz has allowed just two runs in his last four starts. If you discount his first start of the year, he would have an ERA of 0.67. He's backed by a strong bullpen, something the Dodgers don't have except at closer.

The Mets also just had a short trip to LA from San Diego where the Dodgers had to fly in from the East Coast last night after playing in Toronto on Sunday. 

Dodgers starter Scott Kazmir is on the downside of his career. He's yielded four or more runs in four of his last five starts and has thrown a combined 224 pitches in his last two games. His ERA on the season is a ghastly 5.68.

If you count just regulation, all three games so far in this series have gone under the total. The Raptors have gone under in eight of their 10 playoff games. The Heat's gone under in seven of their last eight playoff games. So why go over?
Because the dynamics are about to change starting with this Game 4. 
Toronto lost 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas for the series with an ankle injury. Miami is down its center, Hassan Whiteside. His troublesome right knee bucked just six minutes into Game 3. Whiteside, who led the NBA in blocked shots, has a sprained MCL. This is the type of injury that has sidelined Stephen Curry for the past two weeks.
Because of these two key center injuries, the Raptors and Heat are each going to play small-ball. That means increased tempo and a faster paced game. It's a huge plus for Toronto's All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan because they'll be able to have more open space to work. Lowry finally found his shooting stroke pouring in 29 points during the second half of Game 3.
Whiteside not only is tough defensively, but weak offensively. He had only five assists in his last 17 games. He'll be replaced by a pair of undersized centers - Udonis Haslem and Josh McRoberts - and Amare Stoudemire, who is near the end of his career and never played defense even in his prime. 

The Raptors are forced to give major minutes to 6-foot-9 Bismack Biyombo at center. Biyombo can't score, but is undersized weakening Toronto defensively. 
Note, too, the game is in Miami where the Heat have averaged 110.3 points during their last 17 games at American Airlines Arena. 

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article76428262.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nba/miami-heat/article76428262.html#storylink=cpy

Steven Wright doesn't carry marquee status, but he has been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball with five out of five quality starts and a 1.67 ERA.  Wright is unique because he's a knuckleballer. The righthander's ERA shrinks to 1.37 in night games. Wright has a 0.69 ERA in two career starts versus the Yankees. He beat New York, 2-1, at Yankee Stadium last Aug. 5. 
The Yankees roughed up David Price on Saturday. Price, though, always has had trouble against the Yankees with a career 4.33 ERA. He's also a lefty. The Yankees have scored three runs in their previous two games against righthanded starters. 
The Yankees won't have injured Alex Rodriguez. Jacoby Ellsbury is dealing with a strained hip muscle and isn't likely to play either. Many teams rest starters on Sunday so that may be the case here especially with both teams in action on Monday. 
Luis Severino is pitching for New York. He showed a lot of promise as a rookie last season holding opponent to three runs or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts. However, Severino has battled command issues this season. He's 0-4 with a 6.31 ERA. 
Severino showed signs of coming around during his last start this past Tuesday at homer-friendly Oriole Park in Camden Yards giving up three earned runs in six innings despite committing two errors. 
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman made it clear Severino could be headed to the minors if he doesn't pitch well in this game. So Severino certainly won't lack for incentive.  
Boston has managed only two runs in each of the first two games of this series. The Red Sox haven't scored against New York's bullpen. The Yankees' top relievers are rested now after not having to pitch on Saturday. 

Golden State and Portland have gone over the total in seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings. I expect that trend to continue here.
The Warriors finally showed they could adjust to temporary life without Stephen Curry scoring 34 points in the fourth quarter during the team's last meeting, which was this past Tuesday. Yes, five days ago. Both teams are fully fresh now.
The Trail Blazers don't have the personnel to try to grind down the Warriors with a physical, half-court style. They know that. Their best approach is to play fast and aggressive. That's what they did in scoring 87 points during the first three quarters of Tuesday's game. Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, their players were tired and ran out of gas. That won't happen here because of the long rest period between games. 
I see Portland coming out with a lot of energy, sparked by its home crowd. The Warriors welcome a fast-paced, wide open style. They have the shooters - even without Curry - to pile up points in a hurry. 

The teams last played back on Monday so expect lots of energy. 
The Spurs aren't going to shoot 60.7 percent from the floor like in Game 1. But they certainly figure to shoot better than the 42.6 percent they did in Game 2. San Antonio averaged 103.5 points a game during the regular season and is averaging 105.5 points in six playoff games. The Thunder surrender an average of 103 points per contest.
The Thunder was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA during the regular season averaging 110.2 points a game. It was an encouraging sign for them to see Kevin Durant hit 11 of 19 shots from the floor in Game 2 after being in a shooting slump during the postseason. Oklahoma City shoulder enter this matchup full of confidence and vigor after upsetting the Spurs in San Antonio. That means staying aggressive on fast break opportunities. 
Superstars dominate the playoffs - and these teams have them. LaMarcus Aldridge has been on fire missing just 10 of 44 field goals during the first two games of this series while averaging 39.5 points. I see the Spurs having better ball movement and improved possession in this Game 3 as the Thunder look to clamp down on Aldridge.  

A day off on Thursday could not have come at a better time for the Royals. I see the defending world champions ending their slump here while taking a nice plus price to back that opinion. 
Royals starter Yordano Ventura has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts this season. He is 4-1 lifetime against Cleveland with a 2.62 ERA. The Royals have won five of the past six times Ventura has started against the Indians. Ventura is pitching on extra rest, too. Kansas City is 20-7 when Ventura has pitched on five days rest. 
Cleveland is a solid favorite because it has Danny Salazar on the mound. Salazar has pitched well, particularly against right-handed batters. But he has a losing record in nine career starts versus Kansas City with a 4.64 ERA. The Royals also feature key three lefties in their lineup, including Eric Hosmer. He's 8-for-20 lifetime against Salazar with six extra base hits. 

The Rockies' offense isn't nearly as prolific away from Coors Field. I get that. But this total is set too low given the two starting pitchers. 

Chris Rusin's 1.69 ERA is never going to hold up. He's pitched way above his head while Matt Cain is washed-up. It's only a matter of time before the Giants admit this and take him out of the rotation. Cain's ERA is 6.85 since last July 22. The over is 10-2-2 in Cain's past 14 starts.

The two teams have gone over in five of their last six games played in San Francisco. AT&T is a pitcher's park, but the weather forecast shows the wind is blowing out to left at 10-13 mph. 

The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. 
The oddsmaker is well aware of this. It's certainly no bargain laying this many points with the Raptors. But I'm confident the handicap will hold. This is Toronto's game to win. 
Toronto is the younger team with much to prove especially All-Star Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the old gunslingers. They managed to thwart off the Raptors' late challenge in Game 1, but Dwayne Wade doesn't have much spring in his step and Hassan Whiteside isn't 100 percent. Both teams had to go the full seven games to win their first-round series. The Heat are the older team and had to come back from being down 3-2 to Charlotte to pull it off. The Heat will be the more fatigued team on Thursday, in action for the third time in five days having gone from home to Charlotte to Toronto.  
Even defeating the Raptors in Game 1, Miami still has only covered three of its past 11 road matchups. 
It's easy to get down on Toronto for not winning at home in Game 1. Still, let's not forget the Raptors had a better season record than Miami by a whopping eight games, won three of four against the Heat during the regular season and is playing at Air Canada Centre where they averaged 104.4 points per game. 
Now this isn't to cast a blind eye to how poorly DeMar DeRozan and Lowry are playing. The Raptors live-and-die with their two backcourt All-Stars. Toronto's backcourt shot just 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the floor in Game 1. Lowry had a mere seven points, including a half-court 3-pointer that forced overtime. Miami, by contrast, had its backcourt connect on 20 of 41 (48.7 percent) shots from the field. Yet the Raptors still took the Heat to overtime. 
Lowry and DeRozan didn't play well either in the Raptors' first-round series against the Pacers combining to shoot less than 32 percent from the field. During the season, the Raptors hit 37 percent of their 3-pointers. Only four teams had a higher percentage. 
Toronto's backcourt stars are well overdue to shoot much better. If those two just have their average games, the Raptors should easily prevail given how well some of their other players such as center Jonas Valanciunas are performing.  
I'm not advocating the Raptors are the superior team and should win the series. But I do believe the zig-zag pattern is a fit here. It's a natural letdown spot for the Heat while the Raptors should display a game-of-the-year type mentality. 

There couldn't be more of a difference from Coors Field to Petco Park. The Rockies are great in Coors - the premier hitting park in the majors - and horrendous at pitcher-friendly Petco where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times. 
The starting pitching matchup favors San Diego, too, Eddie Butler, summoned from Triple A Albuquerque, faces veteran Andrew Cashner. 
Cashner has a 2.71 career ERA at Petco. The Rockies have averaged 2.9 runs per game the last three years playing at Petco Park. 
Butler had a 4.09 ERA in Triple A. In his last 12 starts for the Rockies, he's 1-9 with a 6.91 ERA surrendering 78 hits in 57 1/3 innings. This isn't just pitching at Coors either. Butler's road ERA during this span is 6.42. 

Nick Tropeano isn't likely to pitch deep into this game. But Tropeano has been effective in his four starts this season allowing two runs or fewer in each outing. He can be counted on for five or six solid innings. This is more than Junior Gurerra, a 31-year-old converted reliever just called up from the minors, can be relied upon.  
Guerra was 0-2 at Triple A Colorado Springs with a 4.63 ERA. He's pitching on seven day's rest, which could make him rusty.
The Brewers, depth-shy to begin with, could be minus three starters. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is on the DL. Outfielder Domingo Santana didn't play last night due to shoulder tightness and Ryan Braun could get a day off after complaining of soreness. 
The Brewers finished 13 games below .500 at home last year and are under .500 at Miller Park this season. 

Miami is just 2-7 at home this season. The Marlins could be mentally flat, too, since this is their first home game following a 10-game road trip. The Marlins could start to feel the effects of not having Dee Gordon in the lineup. 
Arizona has been much better on the road. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 away, including winning their last five road games. They have won their last four at the Marlins. 
Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is at his best on the road, also, with a 5-1 mark and 3.11 ERA during his last nine away outings. Arizona is 6-1 in Corbin's last seven starts away from Chase Field. 
Miami starter Justin Nicolino is making his second start of the season. He shut down the Dodgers, 2-0, on the road yielding only two hits in 7 1/3 innings this past Wednesday in his season debut. I'm far from sold he can repeat a performance like that especially now that the Diamondbacks have something to go on. 

I'm not sold on Nathan Karns, nor Seattle opening a road favorite against Oakland.
Karns is coming off an impressive 11-1 victory home victory against the Astros this past Tuesday. But he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter with command issues having walked 11 batters in 17 1/3 innings. He is 0-2 lifetime versus the A's, too, with a 5.06 ERA. 
I like Oakland starter Kendall Graveman more. Unlike Karns, Graveman is coming off a bad game last Monday against Detroit. Prior to that game, though, Graveman had surrendered just four runs in his last three starts. He also threw a six-inning shutout of Tampa Bay during his last start of 2015. Graveman is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA in three lifetime appearances versus the Mariners. 
The A's have won five of the past six games against the Mariners, including sweeping three games in Seattle from April 8-10. 

The pitching matchup is so huge for the Giants that it merits this lay price, especially since the number has come down.

Johnny Cueto is coming off his best start of the season and has been dominant pitching at Great American Ball Park with a lifetime mark of 48-22 and 2.91 ERA. He'll be extra pumped facing his old team. 

The Reds are among the worst teams in baseball. They are still missing injured catcher Devin Mesoraco and also could be without underrated shortstop Zack Cosart. Brandon Finegan is nothing special and key Cincinnati relievers carry a high fatigue rating.

First off, these are two outstanding defensive teams. Cleveland gave up the fourth-fewest points per game in the NBA while the Hawks ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and was the top-ranked defensive team since the All-Star break. 
The Hawks held Boston to an average of 89 points per game in regulation during their last three games of their first-round series. The Celtics are a higher-scoring team than the Cavaliers. The under has now cashed in seven of Atlanta's past eight games. 
Atlanta should be super fired-up to set a tough defensive tone having been swept by the Cavaliers in the playoffs last season. The Hawks are improved defensively this season, know the Cavaliers and LeBron James much better and have their confidence up after defeating the Celtics by winning Game 6 in Boston, a very difficult venue. 
Then there is the rust factor - and it should prove huge. Atlanta last played on Thursday while Cleveland will be in action for the first time in eight days. The under has cashed five of the past six times when the Cavaliers haven't played in three or more days. 

A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. 
The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. 
Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. 
The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. 
Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.  

This is a battle of No. 5 type starters and aside from Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen also features weak bullpens. 
Padres starter Colin Rea has an ERA of 5.06 and doesn't go far into games. He's only gone past the fifth inning once in four starts. 
Dodgers starter Ross Stripling is still living on his debut in which he didn't allow a hit, but was pulled after 7 1/3 innings against San Francisco. That was back on April 8. Since then, Stripling has a 4.20 ERA. Opposing hitters are bating .306 against Stripling during his last three starts. 
The right-handed Stripling is going to have to deal, too, with a hot Matt Kemp, who is hitting .385 in his last six games. 
The over has cashed in 67 percent of the Padres' last 59 games against a right-handed starter. 

No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams.
We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. 
But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. 
This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." 
Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. 
The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs. 

Charlotte has won three in a row. The Hornets are playing far better right now than the Heat. Charlotte has confidence and is the fresher, deeper team. The Hornets also have home-court advantage and a chip on their shoulder, a hungry bunch determined to earn respect and attention, which they haven't gotten yet. This is their chance - and everything lines up in their favor, including a fair price in which to back them. 
The Heat are showing their age. They are averaging only 84.3 points during their last three games while shooting less than 39 percent from the floor. Dwayne Wade doesn't have it anymore at 34. Neither does Joe Johnson and Luol Deng. Goran Dragic isn't playing as well as he did earlier and Hassan Whiteside can't be counted on to score in the paint. Miami's bench isn't as good as Charlotte's either. Nicolas Batum is back, too, for the Hornets providing a further boost. 
The Heat have failed to cover in eight of their last nine road games. They have lost in five of their last six road games at Charlotte.
The Hornets have won 32 of their 43 home games this season. This is their moment. 

The last three games in this series have all gone under. Miami hasn't broken 90 points during these past three games. The result is the lowest opening total of the series - down some nine points from the closing Game 1 total. 
It's time for a bounce back. I see it happening here in this Game 6 do-or-die spot for the Heat. 
Miami averaged 119 points while shooting 57.8 percent from the field during the first two games of the series. That definitely was too high. A correction was bound to happen - and it did with Miami averaging 84.3 points and 38.6 shooting during the next three games. Those scoring and shooting marks are definitely too low. It's time for another correction. 
So I see the Heat putting up a scoring mark somewhere in the middle from their first two games compared to their past three games. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra wants his team to play loose and free flowing. The Heat have played tight with their frustrations spilling out. Miami averaged 100 points during the regular season. The Heat have too many pros and good shooters to be kept under 90 points for a fourth straight game. 
Charlotte should put up a good number of points, too, with Nicolas Batum having played 25 minutes in Game 5 after returning from an ankle injury. The Hornets were the No. 11 scoring team in the NBA averaging 103.4 points. The Hornets ranked fifth in free throw percentage and have shot even better from the free throw line during the series.  

The Yankees have a huge pitching edge here - both starting-wise and in bullpen depth. Masahiro Tanaka has looked good through his first four starts and he's backed by stud relievers Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. The Yankees are 10-3 the past 13 times Tanaka has pitched in division. 

The Red Sox can't match that starting Henry Owens, who has had serious command issues throughout his career. The Yankees have patient, professional hitters so this is a bad matchup for Owens. 

Boston also has had problems hosting the Yankees losing eight of the last 10 games at Fenway Park between the two teams. 

Boston has a strong home-court. Granted. But the Hawks are the better - and healthier - team. That matters the most here. 
Atlanta has built up a lead as high as 15 points in four of the five games in this series. The Hawks are coming off a confident-building, 110-83, burial of the Celtics this past Tuesday at home. 
The Hawks have accomplished their 3-2 series lead with All-Star Al Horford, perhaps their best player, struggling missing 21 of 29 shots from the floor in the last three games. Horford is averaging 6.3 points, half his season average. It's a plus if Horford can get back to his normal performance. 
Unlike Atlanta, Boston isn't healthy. Avery Bradley, the Celtics' No. 2 leading scorer and perhaps top defender, is out. Kelly Olynyk is bothered by a bad shoulder. Jae Crowder hasn't shaken the rust off since returning from a knee injury. Jared Sullinger is outclassed by Paul Millsap. But the biggest negative for the Celtics is Isaiah Thomas being hampered by a sprained ankle that he re-aggravated in the last game. 
The Celtics have been too dependent on Thomas. The Hawks have been the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference since the All-Star break and they clamped down on Thomas in their Game 5 victory double and triple-teaming him knowing the Celtics lack any other effective outside shooters. It's a big stretch to expect Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier to step up.
Brad Stevens is an outstanding coach. He's gotten as much out of the Celtics as possible. But he doesn't have the cards here especially with Thomas limited. The Hawks need to take care of business with the Cavaliers rested and waiting for this series to end. It's not too much to ask the Hawks to beat a crippled Celtics team, who are minus Bradley and have Thomas at less than 100 percent. 

Stephen Nover's NFL Draft Props

Usually you're paying high juice. But NFL draft props are beatable. The books are sitting ducks as updated - and key - information becomes available leading up to the event. 

I've always made money betting NFL props. I'm very confident the streak continues this year. 
Here are my 2016 NFL draft props: 
Will there be Over/Under 2 1/2 quarterbacks drafted in the first round? Go Over 2 1/2. The juice is exceptionally high on this one, but it's as close to a lock as you'll find with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz likely going first and second and Paxton Lynch possibly being a top-10 pick, too. There's even a chance a fourth quarterback could sneak into the first round such as Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg. Quarterback is the one position teams will reach on hoping to strike gold in the quarterback-driven NFL. 
Ohio State figures prominently in the draft. I'm involved in three props involving Ohio State players. They are:
Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 8 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Under 8 1/2. Elliott is the most complete running back to enter the draft since Adrian Peterson. It wouldn't shock me to see him go as high as No. 4 to the Cowboys. 
Darron Lee Over/Under 10 1/2 on when he gets picked. Go Over 10 1/2. I don't see him being among the top 15 players chosen. He's downgraded by his lack of size. 
Joey Bosa to be drafted ahead of Myles Jack. Bosa is the best pass rusher in the draft. He should be among the top five players selected. 
Myles Jack Over/Under 8 on when he gets picked. Go Over 8. Jack's stock has dropped because of concerns about his sore knee. He's out of the top 10 now and slipping. 
Over/Under 5 1/2 wide receivers/running backs go in the first round. Go Under 5 1/2. It's a weak year for wide receivers. There are no sure-fire wide receiver stars like in the past few years and Elliott is likely the lone running back to go in Round 1. The only wide receivers I see going in the first round are Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman and Josh Dotson. 

A lot changes with Stephen Curry out. The Warriors know they have to tighten their defense and change their style. Steve Kerr is a sharp enough coach and has the pieces to make the necessary adjustments with his team's versatility and depth. 
The under has been the way to go so far in the playoffs covering at a 72 percent rate. This total seems high, too, given that the Rockets and Warriors have combined to average 202.7 points per game during the first four games of the series with the Rockets breaking 97 points only once. 

I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.

Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. 
Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. 
Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. 
The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance.  
Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. 
Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season.  
The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm. 

The Giants are priced too high here against James Shields, who is more than capable of keeping San Diego in this game. Shields is 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in four career-regular season starts versus the Giants. 
The Padres lost Shields' last start, 11-1, to Pittsburgh. But Shields pitched better than his three earned runs allowed in six innings looked against the Pirates. He was hurt by a pair of bloop singles and a wild pitch. Four key San Francisco hitters - Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Matt Duffy - are a combined 7-for-67 against Shields. 
I respect Giants pitcher Johnny Cueto. I think he's still very good at 30, but he's not as dominant as he was with the Reds. He has a 3.91 ERA in eight career starts against the Padres. He's going to have to deal with streaky Matt Kemp, who is hot going 7-for-14 in his last three games, including five doubles.  
The Giants aren't playing that well either going 4-9 in their last 13 games. They're dealing with a thin bullpen as their top setup man, Sergio Romo, is on the DL. 

Carlos Martinez is close to an ace. Shelby Miller is struggling mentally and physically. The Diamondbacks' weak relief corps is further weakned by fatigue.

Martinez has a lifetime 2.93 ERA in five appearances versus Arizona. Opponents are batting just .178 against Martinez this season.

Miller hasn't lasted past the fourth inning during his past two starts. He has an 8.59 ERA. The Cardinals are familar with Miller, who was with them until going to the Braves last season. 

The first four games of this series have all gone under. The highest combined score between the two teams was 190 points in Game 1. So why buck the odds and go over for this Game 5? 

Many reasons. Let's start with this being the lowest opening over/under of the series. Then we have the Pacers rediscovering their offensive rhythm in the last game scoring 100 points. Paul George continues to be a monster averaging 26.3 points a game in the series, but point guard George Hill stepped up and Pacers coach Frank Vogel opened up the floor more by pairing energetic Myles Turner with Ian Mahinmi, who looked great. 
The Raptors entered the playoffs reaching triple digits in 13 of their last 14 home games. However, they are averaging only 93 points per game in the series. That's what happens when Toronto's two stars - Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - are shooting just 32.2 percent and 29.6 percent, respectively, from the floor. Those two haven't suddenly forgotten how to shoot and Indiana's defensive isn't that stellar. I'm looking for a strong rebound from those two. They are long overdue.  
Toronto has gotten double-digit inside scoring from 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas in all but one of the games during the series. DeMarre Carroll is starting to play much better, too, for the Raptors. Carroll is an excellent defender, but his scoring has picked up. He's averaging just under 15 points during the past two games.

This is a special game for the Marlins. It's the return to Dodger Stadium of Marlins manager Don Mattingly. The timing is ripe for the Marlins to pull an upset. The Dodgers are a bit fat and happy returning from a 4-2 road trip. They also come home with a short-handed, overworked bullpen that remains vulnerable in the seventh and eighth innings. 
The Dodgers have lost four of the last five times when opening a new series.
I like the starting pitching matchup from a Marlins' standpoint, too. It's veteran Wei-Yin Chen, a consistent proven reliable No. 3 type starter, against Ross Stripling, who is making just his fourth big league start and getting worse as opponents get to know him better. 
Much is made of Stripling's big league debut, when he didn't allow a hit in 7 1/3 innings. But he surrendered three runs on six hits and two walks during his last start when he couldn't get out of the fourth inning. That was this past Wednesday against the Braves, who have the worst record in baseball at 4-14.  
Chen has produced two straight quality starts, the latest being this past Wednesday when he held the Nationals to three runs with seven strikeouts in seven innings. 

There has been early marketplace activity on this matchup and it makes sense with the money coming on Cleveland. Not only is Danny Salazar a huge upgrade on Twins starter Tommy Milone, but the Twins'l bullpen carries a super high fatigue rating. The Indians are 9-2 the past 11 times Salazar has pitched against an opponent with a losing record. 

Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan. 

Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. 
The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. 
Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips. 
 

I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets.

The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

Things are back to normal for Golden State with the return of Stephen Curry. That means a high-scoring game. 
The Warriors lead the NBA in points per game at 115. They also finished No. 1 in two-point and 3-point shooting. Only four times in their past 44 games have the Warriors not scored triple digits.
The Rockets rank 25th defensively. Houston has surrendered triple digits during 80 percent of its last 40 games. 
The Rockets ranked fourth in scoring, though. If you discount their Game 1 performance versus the Warriors, the Rockets are averaging 116 points in their last six games. 

Count the Dodgers as among the many teams who don't care to play at Coors Field. LA has lost five in a row there, but are decent-sized favorites today with Kenta Maeda taking the mound against Tyler Chatwood.
Maeda has been fantastic so far with a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings spanning three starts. Those starts have come at San Diego and twice at Dodger Stadium - both pitcher's parks. He's been lucky, too, with a high strand rate. 
Now Maeda makes his first appearance at Coors. No field through the years has been better for offense and that's holding up again this season as a major league-high 14.4 runs and 3.6 home runs are being scored there per game. The Rockies lead the majors in team average at .303 and OPS at .943. They have won their last three home games, averaging 9.3 runs and batting .377 during this time frame. Expect a lot of runs again today as the wind is blowing out at close to 20 mph.  
The Rockies also are expected to get back starting catcher Nick Hundley today.  
Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood is under-the-radar having been sidelined most of 2014 and 2015 following elbow surgery. Chatwood always had a high ceiling, though, and he displayed that in his last outing shutting out the Cubs, 2-0, at Wrigley Field this past Sunday. Chatwood held the Cubs to two hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts and one walk. 
Colorado is 7-1 the past eight times Chatwood has been an underdog, a winning percentage of 88 percent. The Dodgers are 1-5 during their last six road games when Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched. 

It's not a huge surprise the over has cashed in eight of Cincinnati's last 11 games. The Reds have a terrible bullpen and they play in a great hitter's park.

John Lackey isn't a front line starter anymore and the Cubs should do plenty of damage against converted starter Dan Straily and one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Reds' relievers have a combined 6.89 ERA. Straily has a career 4.51 ERA. 

The Cubs are averaging 6.9 runs per game on the road even though most of their big hitters haven't gotten into full gear yet. 

I'm not a fan of either of these starting pitchers. The Giants are due to start hitting and the Marlins get back Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon in their starting lineup.

Jarred Cosart hasn't looked good this season. There is a simple reason for this: He isn't very good with serious control problems and lacking a strikeout pitch. If you chart his metrics than you know he is even worse than his 3.62 ERA. The over has cashed during his last five road starts. 

Jeff Samardzija also is who he is - a mediocre starter. His strikeout rate through the early part of this season is at his lowest in six years. 

No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever. 

San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field.
The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. 
It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. 
The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason. 

Paul George can't play any better. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can't play any worse going a combined 17-for-63 shooting from the floor for 27 percent. 
Yet this Eastern Conference series is tied 1-1 after the Raptors got their confidence back and halted their playoff woes with a 98-87 victory this past Monday. 
The Raptors had lost seven playoff games in a row prior to that win, including Game 1 at home. Toronto was under a lot of pressure in that opening home playoff game, being the higher seed and with that playoff losing streak hanging above its head. Now that the Raptors have excised their playoff demons, I'm expecting another big performance.
There are reasons for this. Toronto tied for the best road record in the Eastern Conference at 24-17. The Raptors have covered eight of the last nine times at Indiana, too. 
Even if George maintains his elite play, the rest of the Pacers aren't good enough to keep up. Toronto has outrebounded Indiana, 96-71, and outscored the Pacers by 32 points in the paint. Center Jonas Valanciunas has been dominant stepping up to average 17.5 points and 17 rebounds per game in the series. Indiana starter center Ian Mahinmi is bothered by a lower back injury and is questionable for today's game. 
All-Stars Lowry and DeRozan are too good to keep shooting this bad. They're due. Defensive ace DeMarre Carroll is working his way back from a knee injury. He's improving with each outing. This will be his sixth game since returning to the lineup. It's an added bonus if he can slow down George. 
This is a case of laying a nickel higher juice to get the superior Raptors at a pick price with their stars overdue for a big game and their frontcourt dominance well established. 

After seeing that Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon - the Marlins' two best position players - are not in the starting lineup, I'm going to lay the lumber.

Max Scherzer dominated the Nationals last season throwing 15 scoreless innings. The Marlins are 1-7 at home, lost six of their last seven and pitching bottom-of-the-rotation Tom Koehler. 

Value play as I don't believe the Brewers should be favored against a team that is playing better than they are.

The Twins are 4-1 in their last five games, over their early-season woes.  They are averaging 5.2 runs during this span while batting .305. The Brewers are batting just .205 in their last four games without a home run. They are 4-11 in their last 15 home games. 

Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has a higher ceiling than Tommy Milone, but right now the youngster is more thrower than pitcher with control issues. Milone has a 1.38 career ERA in two starts in Milwaukee. 

Boston and Atlanta put up a combined 203 points in the Hawks' 102-101 Game 1 victory this past Saturday. Those teams reached that figure despite missing 116 field goal attempts and going 16-for-62 from 3-point range. The Celtics shot just 23.1 percent in the first half and didn't score a single fast-break basket. 

The feeling out process is over now. I see both teams shooting better especially Boston, which got its offense going in the second half scoring 67 points while putting up 15 fast-break points although shooting only 19 free throws for the entire game. Considering the pace of the opening game, there should have been at least 25 more points scored. That would push this total easily over if the teams just have a normal, or even slightly-below normal shooting game. The Hawks shot less than 39 percent from the floor during the final three quarters. 
The Celtics will be without Avery Bradley, their second-leading scorer behind underrated stud Isaiah Thomas. He's out with a hamstring injury. Bradley's absence, though, will hurt the Celtics more on the defensive end. He probably is the team's best defender and his being out means the Celtics will field a smaller, quicker lineup. Again, a plus for the over. 

The White Sox are 8-4 despite Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier combining to bat .187. Part of the reason for the White Sox's early success is Carlos Rodon, who is showing signs of having the breakthrough season many envisioned. He has a 1.38 ERA this season. Going back to his past 10 starts, Rodon is 6-3 with a 1.73 ERA. 
The White Sox held the Angels to an average of two runs per game in seven games last season. Rodon contributed to that by striking out 11 Angels in seven innings during a 3-0 August victory. 
The Angels weren't anything special last season and they are down again this year with a losing record. The Angels have been held to four hits or fewer in three of their 12 games. They just got swept on the road by the Twins, who were 0-9 heading into the series. Now they head to Chicago where they have lost four in a row to the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field.  
The Angels are coming off a 3-2, 12-inning defeat leaving their bullpen somewhat depleted with their three best set-up men carrying huge fatigue ratings. This puts a lot of pressure on Hector Santiago, a mediocre, back-of-the-rotation starter who can't compare to Rodon when it comes to potential star power.  

This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. 
Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. 
The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers. 

Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue. 

Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness. 

The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.

Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

 

Atlanta is underrated defensively. The Hawks were No. 1 defensively following the All-Star break in surrendering the fewest points (96.8) per 100 possessions. They have the defense and preparation to effectively stop Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics' major offensive weapon. 
The Celtics are best at forcing turnovers and playing perimeter defense. Only three teams had a better 3-point defense than Boston. 
I'm expecting a feeling-out, typical playoff intense game here. The extra time off also is a plus for the under. 

It's easy to envision offense when thinking about Toronto because of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery. But only San Antonio and Utah surrendered fewer points per game than the Raptors. Indiana is no slouch defensively, either, ranking eighth in fewest points per game. 
Given the increased defensive intensity of the playoffs, an early start time and the rust of being idle since Wednesday - when both teams held out their best players to rest - I see the total going under here. 
These teams have a history of going under, too, when playing fellow Eastern Conference opponents. The under has cashed 13 of the last 19 times the Pacers have met an Eastern Conference foe while the under is 9-3 the last 12 times the Raptors have gone against an Eastern Conference opponent. That's a combined under trend of 21-9 (70%). 
The Raptors have the ace defender, DeMarre Carroll, to hold Pacers superstar Paul George in check. 

Simply put, this is too much price to pass on Madison Bumgarner. The lefty is 3-0 at Dodger Stadium lifetime against Clayton Kershaw, the other premier southpaw in the National League. 
San Francisco is 28-11 in Bumgarner's last 39 road starts and 12-4 the past 16 times he's faced an opponent with a winning record. 
The Dodgers aren't likely to have their closer, Kenley Jansen. He recorded a five-out save on Wednesday and then came back on Thursday to pitch the ninth inning to close out a victory.
The Giants are likely to have Buster Posey, their best position player, back in the lineup. 

The Diamondbacks don't have to take a backseat to the Dodgers this season. This is a fade, too, on rookie Ross Stripling, who was pulled in his big league debut this past Friday after not giving up a hit in 7 1/3 innings. 
Stripling received a lot of publicity for not giving up a hit. Lost in the glare of that, though, was the fact he had a 3.66 ERA in 14 minor league starts last season pitching in Double A and Single A. He also had a 4.09 ERA in 11 spring training innings. 
The Dodgers also could be without their closer, Kenley Jansen, after he got a five-out save last night against Arizona. It was the fragile Jansen's first career five-out save.

Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray posted a 2.28 ERA against the Dodgers last season and is one of the more underrated bottom-of-the-rotation pitchers. Arizona has won his last four starts.  

Ian Kennedy is prone to walks and giving up the long ball. That's a bad combination when facing the Astros especially in Houston. Kennedy also has lacked consistency. He beat the punchless Twins, 7-0, this past Saturday. The last time Kennedy opened with consecutive victories, though, was 2012. Kennedy was 0-3 with a 6.30 in six starts during spring training.  
Doug Fister is back in the American League after a disappointing season with the Nationals last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Fister, who beat the Brewers, 6-4, this past Saturday striking out six in five innings. 
The Astros have won 68 percent of their last 69 home games. 

The Reds are better than perceived and have an edge in starting pitching with Raisel Iglesias against Jason Hammel. 
Iglesias is a rising star. He had 18 strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA in two starts against the Cubs last season during his rookie season. I think Iglesias could be even better this season. He's started off well this season with solid outings in his first two starts and 12 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.
Hammel is a journeyman, bottom-of-the-rotation starter. He has a 4.38 lifetime ERA against the Reds in nine appearances. Cincinnati has won five of the last six times it has faced a right-hander. 

Early in the season, oddsmakers are more prone to making a mistake in the line. I believe that is the case with this total. It opened too low at below 8. There are two capable offenses here operating against bottom of the rotation starters, who are not in good form.
The Diamondbacks are pitching Rubby De La Rosa, who so far has yet to show he's deserving of being in a big league starting rotation. De La Rosa throws hard - but straight. This is a big reason why he has a 4.61 career ERA and has pitched fewer than six innings during each of his last six starts with a 7.66 ERA during this span. 
The Dodgers are quite familiar with De La Rosa, who came up with them. De La Rosa is 0-3 with an 11.21 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers' offense gets a boost with the return from the DL of catcher Yasmani Grandal and infielder Howie Kendrick, who is 10-for-18 lifetime against De La Rosa. 
Dodgers starter Alex Wood showed promising potential a couple of years ago with Atlanta. But the southpaw disappointed last season and he wasn't sharp in his first game this season giving up five runs in five-plus innings in a 12-6 loss to the Giants this past Thursday. To stop the Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt must be contained. Goldschmidt is 4-for-9 against Wood with a pair of homers and two walks. 
The Diamondbacks are 16-5-2 (76 percent) to the over the past 23 times they've faced a lefty. This series has an over bias, too, when played in LA with the over cashing 69 percent of the time at 20-9-1. 
Brian Gorman is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 68 percent of the time he's been behind the plate the past 20 times. 

The Spurs have no incentive to win here and will be holding out their main players, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. 
In fact, if the Spurs lose they get a first-round playoff matchup against the crippled Grizzlies. That would suit the Spurs fine. 
Dallas is playing well down the stretch with seven wins in its last eight games. If the Mavericks win they could move up to the No. 5 seed in the West so they have motivation. The Mavericks, full of prideful veterans, certainly don't want to lose at home to San Antonio's reserves. 

Yes, Colorado has a strong home field. But I'll go with the hot-hitting, vastly superior team with the better starter going.
The Giants have hit at least one home run in each of their first seven games. I prefer Jeff Samardzija in a bounce-back spot against Tyler Chatwood. Samardzija didn't pitch that well in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers this past Wednesday in his San Francisco debut giving up three runs in 5 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in three career starts versus the Rockies. Samardzija also has had success at Coors Field posting a 1.88 ERA there in 14 1/3 innings. 
Chatwood last faced the Giants a year ago and gave up three homers and four walks in what turned out to be a 12-10 Giants road win. Chatwood has a 4.29 lifetime ERA. He'll have to deal with Buster Posey, who is batting .396 in 46 career games at Coors Field.  

The Padres aren't good enough with this pitching matchup to be a road favorite against the Phillies.
Charlie Morton is a much better pitcher at night and is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in seven outings versus the Padres. 
Padres starter Robbie Erlin is a fill-in for injured Tyson Ross. He's 9-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 28 lifetime appearances, including 23 starts. 
The Phillies have some under-the-radar hitters, while the Padres have a number of overrated hitters. 

Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. 
The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. 
The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City.
I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined. 

Neither team has gotten their bats going this season. The Rangers rank 20th in runs scored while the Angels are 29th averaging a puny 1.8 runs per game. 
This is a rare afternoon game in Anaheim, which historically has been brutal on hitters due to the sun and shadows later in the day.
Texas starter Martin Perez has a 2.28 career ERA in five outings versus the Angels. Jered Weaver makes his season debut for the Angels with a chip on his shoulder. Weaver is past his prime, but is 15-8 lifetime versus the Rangers with a 3.45 ERA in 37 stars. He has the veteran savvy to take advantage of this rare home situation.  

Charlotte ranks eighth defensively. Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than the Hornets. If you discount the Cavaliers scoring 112 points on them, the Hornets are giving up an average of 93.1 points per game during their last six games. They've held their past three opponents to 97 or fewer points. 
The Hornets should maintain their defensive intensity for this matchup since they can still improve their playoff position. They'll also draw the Wizards likely missing star point guard John Wall. The Wizards aren't the same without Wall, who has missed the last two games with a sore knee. I would be stunned if Wall played since the Wizards were just eliminated from playoff contention. 
But what about the Wizards' defense? Will it be good enough to hold up their share in keeping this total under? 
A very early start time is a plus for the under. Neither team is used to playing at such an early hour. The Hornets have a strong recent history of going under when playing on Sunday. The over only has cashed once during Charlotte's past nine Sunday games. 
The Wizards had been a good defensive team ranking in the top 10 in defensive ratings each of the previous three season. However, this season they slipped. Still, they are a respectable 15th in ratings this season. The key to keeping the Hornets in check is limiting Kemba Walker. The Wizards have proven successful in this holding him to 17.4 points - four points under his season average - and 33.8 percent shooting from the floor in three games this season. Career-wise, Walker is shooting 28.8 percent against Washington. 
There are several pertinent under trends that line up, too. The under has cashed 75 percent of the time the past 21 times the Wizards have hosted an opponent with a losing road record. The Hornets and Wizards have gone under eight of the past 11 times they've met. 

Zach Greinke is one of the top five pitchers in the National League. Kyle Hendricks is a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. But since Greinke got shelled in his first start of the season, the line is low enough to back the Diamondbacks. Greinke should be pitching with a chip on his shoulder after his disappointing Diamondbacks debut against the Rockies. 
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 the last nine times they've hosted the Cubs. Chicago is still in shock about losing promising slugger Kyle Schwarber for the season. 

At last look the Jazz were favored by a dozen points against the Clippers. No, Karl Malone and John Stockton haven't suddenly been transported in time. Doc Rivers has said he'll be resting Clipper starters. Blake Griffin didn't even make the trip. Hence, such an out of whack point spread. 
There also is a huge reduction in the total. In my view, the total has been lowered way too much.
The Clippers have averaged 105.5 points in their last 12 games. They have firepower on their bench and Utah could be less intense than normal defensively knowing the Clippers are sitting out starters. 
Utah is averaging 100 points in its last five games. The Clippers lose a lot defensively if DeAndre Jordan is one of the starters slated to sit by Rivers. The Jazz also are expected to have Alec Burks for the first time since he suffered a broken leg in December.
Burks' minutes will be limited, but his presence allows the Jazz an option of playing three wings and opens up the perimeter more for Gordon Hawyard and underrated Rodney Hood.  

The Phillies' brutal bullpen could put this total over just by itself. Philadelphia starter Jarad Eickoff has potential, but is far from a sure thing. Neither he nor the Phillies' bullpen can be counted on.
However, Mets starter Jacob deGrom's velocity was down during spring training and he could be distracted since his first child is due any day. The Phillies batted .313 versus deGrom last season. The Phillies have gone over the past four times facing a righty. The over also is 18-7-1 in deGrom's 26 starts versus foes with a losing record.
Neither pitcher is going to be helped by a weather forecast that calls for the wind to be blowing out at 15 miles per hour. 
Put all this together and it's not difficult to see at least seven runs being scored.

We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. 
The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing.
I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington.
But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season.
The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.

Sure on paper, this low total seems right where it should be. San Antonio is the best defensive team in the NBA and Utah is giving up less than 89 points per game during its last 13 matchups. 
The reality, though, is these two teams should play much higher than this total. 
San Antonio has reached triple digits in five of its last six games. The Spurs have averaged 112.3 points in three games against Utah this season. Clearly, the Spurs know how to put up points against the Jazz.Yet the oddsmaker is calling for the Spurs to score around 94 points, which would be a whopping 18.3 points less than in the past three meetings. 
Now there's a chance the Spurs hold out starters here, or at least reduce their minutes. I'm fine with that, too, because that would ensure a looser flow plus San Antonio may have the strongest bench in the league.  
Utah's firepower isn't going to remind anyone of Golden State's, but the Jazz have some underrated scorers with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood quickly coming to mind. 
The Jazz should be extremely fired-up, too, in a triple revenge situation and digging hard for a playoff spot. The Jazz don't play again until Friday so their starters should play big minutes. Utah is averaging 104.5 points during its last four games. 

Expectations couldn't be higher for the young Cubs. That could mean trouble early and inflated prices, which we have here. Opening on the West Coast also is strange for Chicago. 
The last time Garrett Richards was a home underdog was 2013. The Angles have won 72 percent of Richards' last 18 home starts. Richards gave up three runs or fewer in seven in seven of his last eight outings last season showing he was healthy after suffering a torn patellar tendon in his knee two seasons ago. 
If Richards isn't an ace, he's close to it especially pitching at Angel Stadium were he's 21-10 lifetime with a 3.47 ERA. Richards is particularly tough on National League teams not familiar with him as the Angels are 9-1 in Richards' 10 interleague starts. 
Jake Arrieta was an absolute stud last year. But he did throw a career-high 229 innings last season, nearly 75 more innings that he had previously thrown. That may have an affect on him this season. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are coming off strong springs combining for double-digit homers and 33 RBI's. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons tremendously upgrades the Angels' infield defense. 
Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was with Baltimore and he last faced the Angels in 2012. But his lifetime numbers versus the Angels are 0-1 with a 7.47 ERA in three starts. 

After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February.
Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. 
The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season.  
Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season.  
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. 
The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors. 

The total on this Final Four matchup opened 150. Now look where it is at. Is the oddsmaker that far off? He shouldn't be. Not in a game of this magnitude. There are certainly key factors why the over is the right play besides what has become excellent line value now. 
There of course is the Buddy Hield factor. He's on fire averaging 29.3 points per game on 56.7 percent shooting from the floor during the tournament. The Sooners have other capable scorers if Villanova pays too much attention to slow downing Hield, who very well could be the best collegiate player this season. 
The Wildcats have balanced scoring. They can hit 3-pointers and are excellent from the free throw line, too. If you discount the Kansas game, Villanova is averaging 83 points in the tournament while Oklahoma puts up 81 points per game doing against solid defensive opponents Texas A&M, Oregon and Cal State Bakersfield. The Sooners averaged more than 80 points per game during the regular season. Only 20 teams in the nation averaged more than Oklahoma. The Wildcats scored 70 or more points in 81 percent of their games this season. 
Sometimes the marketplace is right. But they've overthought this matchup. The total is too low now. 

Minus Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, the Grizzlies aren't the elite defensive team of past seasons. They have allowed at least 100 points in 11 of their last 14 games and an average of 104.2 points during their past four games.
Memphis can score, though. If you discount an 87-point performance against San Antonio, the league's No. 1 defensive team, the Grizzlies are averaging 105 points during their past five games.  
Toronto has the offense to take advantage of the Grizzlies' less-than-stellar defense with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. They've helped Toronto reach triple digits in 16 of its last 17 games. 
The over is 15-6-1 in the Raptors' last 22 road games. The over also is 20-6-1 during the Grizzlies' past 27 home contests. 

Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. 
This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS.
Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. 
Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest. 

The finals of the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament pits Old Dominion versus Oakland. It's a total contrast of styles. The Monarchs are the seventh-best defensive team in the country while the Golden Grizzlies are the top scoring team in the nation. 
Old Dominion has a strong backcourt, but Oakland's Kay Felder is the best player on the court and one of the finest guards in the country. It's my belief Oakland's offense will trump Old Dominion's defense. I base this on my respect for the Horizon League, which Oakland is a member, the greatness of Felder and the Golden Grizzlies being the more talented team.
Trend-wise, the Golden Grizzlies rate a strong edge, too, going 23-6-1 ATS versus foes with a winning record, 25-5-1 ATS following a win and covering in their last seven non-conference games. By contrast, Old Dominion is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 non-league matchups. 

The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State.
The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz.
Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points.  
Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. 
So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.  

I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.
That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. 
Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. 
"That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season."
A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. 
Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.

East Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation ranking 36th and 58th, respectively. They should light up the scoreboard playing at a neutral site in Las Vegas in the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. 
Yes, this is a bogus tournament, perhaps the least prestigious of all the postseason tournaments. But teams were attracted to it because it's in Vegas and affords them extra practice time. So even those these teams haven't played a game in three weeks, I don't expect them to be rusty because of constant practice. Sources tell me to expect a loose, up-and-down game with little defense. That's what helped make these two teams attractive to tournament officials. The marketplace has tapped into this with early steam on the over. There are more sharps than squares involved in this matchup. 
Louisiana Tech loves to run. The Bulldogs average better than 79 points a game while surrendering more than 72 points a game. The average combined team score in the last 13 games the Bulldogs played against opponents who also play up-tempo and pushed pace is 171.6 points. That's well above this over/under. The over has cashed in 20 of Louisiana Tech's last 26 non-conference games for 77 percent. 
Indications are East Tennessee State will run with the Bulldogs. The Buccaneers average nearly 78 points a game while giving up an average of 73.5 points. They are a team of athletes, too. Both teams receive strong guard play. 

This is a small fun tournament for these teams without the pressure of the NCAA Tournament, or even NIT. So expect a loose, fun up-and-down game that should produce more than enough points to push this total over. 

So when did the Utah Jazz turn into the Golden State Warriors? I haven't seen the Jazz laying this many points since the days of John Stockton and Karl Malone. 
The Lakers do have the second-worst record in the NBA and are playing the string out, but this spread is out of whack. It's the most points the Jazz have been favored by all season and just the second time they've been double-digit chalk. 
Utah is the second-lowest scoring team in the league averaging 97.5 points per game. The Lakers have scored 98 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. Prior to laying an egg at home last night to a desperate Wizards team, the Lakers had produced 105, 107 and 107 points during their previous three games. 
The Lakers have covered seven of the past nine times they've been double-digit 'dogs and are 6-2 ATS the last eight times they've been on the road versus a foe with a winning home mark. 
This isn't an optimal spot either for Utah. The Jazz just concluded a grueling five-game road trip that began on March 19 by beating Minnesota, 93-84, on Saturday night. The Jazz can't afford to look past the Lakers being just a half-game ahead of Houston for the final playoff spot in the West, but they also have to be smart about resting their key players since they have upcoming games against the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers and Mavericks. 
So the backdoor should remain wide open for the Lakers in case they do fall behind by a lopsided margin. 
However, I see the Lakers not having to rely on garbage time to cover this number. I think they'll be pumped after playing poorly at home last night. Lakers fans have a history of supporting their team in Salt Lake City and they should be out there in full force tonight to witness Kobe Bryant's final game in Utah. 

Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. 
This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. 
The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. 
If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. 
During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. 
The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers. 

These teams met just two weeks ago and the line was 211 1/2. The Spurs won 93-85 at home. Now the total has been adjusted downward way too much - especially considering how many key players the Spurs will be missing.

Out for the Spurs are defensive ace Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Thunder is enjoying a homestand and is rested. Their dynamic offense should be able to take advantage. 

Leonard didn't play last night against the Grizzlies and Memphis - despite a no-name rotation - scored 104 points on the Spurs. San Antonio has loads of bench scoring so I see the Spurs getting their points against a mediocre Thunder defense that ranks 16th in points allowed per game. 

On paper, Oregon doesn't appear to be an elite team. Certainly the Ducks don't have a superstar like Oklahoma has with Buddy Hield. But this is a bad matchup for the Sooners. 
The Ducks are emerging from under-the-radar downgraded by some for winning a weak Pac-12. But the reality is the Ducks deserved their high tournament seed and are a unique and elite team winning 11 in a row and covering 12 of the last 16 times versus opponents with a winning record. 
Oregon has a short rotation, but that rotation is versatile, unselfish and high effective from a team concept. It's a tight rotation that has better big men than Oklahoma and plays the outstanding perimeter defense needed to shut down the Sooners' 3-point game. The Sooners are not a deep team either.
The Ducks held Duke, St. Joe's and Holy Cross to a combined 17-of-60 from 3-point range for 28.3 percent during the tournament. Oregon's guard duo of Tyler Dorsey and Casey Benson are quick and physical defenders. They can keep Hield in check. The Ducks hold an inside edge and are quicker than Oklahoma on the perimeter. 
The Sooners have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. They have struggled spread-wise when playing on Saturday, too, going 3-13 ATS.

Paul George is iffy, but even if it doesn't play I like the Pacers to cover this number against the Nets. Brooklyn still could be in the clouds after upsetting the Cavaliers two nights ago.

The Pacers should be focused in a dog fight for the final playoff spot and have the stronger bench. 

These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. 
The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. 
Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah.  
The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs  Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. 
I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent. 

Early marketplace activity has been on the Heat here, which is understandable since the perception is Miami will be fired-up after an embarrassing 112-88 road loss to the Spurs. 
I don't buy into that perception. I think Orlando will be the more motivated team. 
Let's discuss the Heat first. This marks their third game in four days and end of a two-game road trip that concluded at San Antonio on Wednesday. After this matchup against a floundering foe, the Heat are idle for the weekend not playing again until Monday. Miami has failed to cover in five of its last seven home games versus foes with a winning percentage of less than .400 on the road. 
Orlando has a fiery coach, Scott Skiles, and off a bad loss, too. The Magic were drilled at Detroit by 16 points two nights ago. Nikola Vucevic is going to miss his 11th consecutive game with a groin strain. Power forward Ersan Ilyasova won't play either due to a sprained shoulder. But the Magic still maintain youthful talent with Victor Oladipo and point guard Elfrid Payton, who is playing his finest ball. 

The Magic should be up for this game, the last of a four-game road trip, against an in-state rival that has bullied them through the years. Orlando is 10-4 ATS following a defeat. The Magic also are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games at this spread. 

When Texas A&M takes the court against Oklahoma in this Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup, the Aggies still might be hearing about pulling off the largest final-minute comeback in college basketball history. Their 92-88 double overtime win against Northern Iowa - coming from 12 points down with 34 seconds left in regulation - is one for the ages.
But life moves on. And the reality for these Texas A&M college kids is even if they are mentally ready - which is not a given - they are not the better team against Oklahoma. The Sooners score more points per game, shoot a higher percentage from the floor, are much better from the free throw line than the Aggies while also ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting. 
Truth be told, Texas A&M wasn't sharp against Northern Iowa. The Aggies were lucky to draw overmatched Green Bay in the first round and then struggled with the Panthers. That doesn't bode well for stepping up against the Sooners. 
Team play can get you this far. But now superstars come into real prominence and Oklahoma might have the best player in the country, Buddy Hield. He's a monster that Texas A&M can't match up against. The Aggies play good defense, but they don't have a defensive stopper to hold down Hield. The Aggies do pressure the ball well. But the Sooners have three solid ballhandlers to take care of that.  
The Sooners have the guard play, excellent perimeter shooting and superstar to easily beat the Aggies. 

I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. 
The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. 
I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. 
The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents. 

This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days.
The Nets have defeated the Hornets six of the past eight times at home. Brook Lopez, the Nets' best player, is expected to play after sitting because of a virus in the Nets' last game, a 115-103 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Nets are 7-4 ATS the past 11 times Lopez has played. Lopez's presence is huge because the Nets lack an inside game without him. 
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and also is 8-2 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. 

There is a reason why Seattle is a 4 1/2-point home 'dog to Vermont in this CBI Tournament game. The reason is the Redhawks just aren't very good and neither was their WAC conference this season. 
Seattle is a below .500 team. The Redhawks were fortunate to even be selected to play in this lowly tournament. But since they got past Idaho in the first round here they are.  
Vermont fell in the America East championship game. The Catamounts are better than Seattle power ratings-wise. The line could be even higher except Vermont didn't look good in opening the tournament with a lackluster 79-74 win against Western Carolina. Look for Vermont to play much better in this contest. 
The Catamounts are highly motivated to win the program's first postseason championship. If they were to accomplish that they also would set a school record for victories in a season. 

A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs.
This is something Jason Kidd realizes. That's why he's made the decision to cut back on his starter's minutes and use the rest of the season to evaluate his entire roster. 
That decision helps make the Pistons even a stronger home favorite against the Bucks. 
Detroit defeated Milwaukee, 102-91, on Feb. 27 in the team's last meeting. That was in Milwaukee and the Pistons won despite making just 42 percent of their shots from the floor. The Pistons hold two strong edges on the Bucks - rebounding and point guard play with Reggie Jackson. The Bucks are thin at the key position. Michael Carter-Williams is out for the year. So is O.J. Mayo, who while not a true point guard was taking some of the load off by helping out with the ballhandling. 
The Bucks were outrebounded by the Jazz, 45-27, last night grabbing a laughable two offensive rebounds. Utah ranks fifth in the league in rebounding margin. Detroit is fourth. Andre Drummond is the No. 1 rebounder in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding margin. 
The spot is good also for Detroit. The Pistons are in the fourth of a franchise-long nine straight home games. They are 20-11-2 (64%) ATS at home this season. Detroit also is 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times hosting a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 
The Pistons are mere percentage points out of the final playoff spot in the East. They know the path to the playoffs lies in beating bad teams at home. Stan Van Gundy ripped Detroit's lack of defense in its last game, a lackluster 115-103 win against the Nets this past Saturday. 
Milwaukee is 9-26 in its road games. The Bucks have a losing spread mark away from home. They are playing without rest and finally realizing their playoff hopes aren't going to happen. 

This is too high of a total with Cleveland involved. The Cavaliers rank No. 3 defensively in fewest points allowed. Denver is minus its top scorer and go-to-guy Danilo Gallinari.

The Cavaliers should be particularly motivated to clamp down on defense after giving up an embarrassing 122 points to Miami in their last game. 

The under is 6-1-1 the past eight times these teams have met.

Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice.

Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court.

Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season.

Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites. 

Now the Clippers draw a team as decimated with injuries as the Grizzlies in the Pelicans. New Orleans has five players out for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. They soon may be joined by Anthony Davis, the team's one star.
Davis missed the second half of New Orleans' last game this past Friday with knee soreness. He also has a sore shoulder. There is talk the Pelicans may shut Davis down for the season since they aren't making the playoffs. Davis certainly isn't likely to play today. All of this has to be disheartening to an already disheartened Pelicans team. 
New Orleans is 2-9 in its last 11 games. The Pelicans' only victories during this span have come against the Kings. They are 2-7 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall games. 
The Clippers have a good history of bouncing back - 9-2 ATS the past 11 times following a loss - and have defeated the Pelicans in all three meetings this season and 11 of the last 13 times.  

The Big Ten has looked bad in the NCAA Tournament. I'm not a fan of Iowa either. The Hawkeyes survived rather than won their first round tournament game nipping Temple, 72-70, in overtime as seven-point favorites. It's the eighth time in their last nine games the Hawkeyes have failed to cover. 
Temple outrebounded Iowa by 11 boards. The Hawkeyes got away with that and shooting just 35 percent from the field. Even if they play better versus Villanova - which there is no guarantee that is going to happen - they still lack the firepower to hang within this point spread number. 
Villanova's Jay Wright is an elite coach. Yet the Wildcats have failed to reach the Sweet 16 each of the last three years in the NCAA Tournament. That's due to end right now. If you go by KenPom.com's adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, the Wildcats rank with Virginia and Kansas as one of the three best teams in the country. 
Iowa is nowhere near that level. The Hawkeyes also have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 neutral site games. 

As great as the Warriors are, they are trumped in this spot by San Antonio.
The Spurs have won 43 in a row at home. They haven't lost to the Warriors at home during the regular season since 1997 - a streak of 32 consecutive victories! Even more important, the Spurs have eagerly anticipated this revenge game since getting blown out, 120-90, at Golden State on Jan. 25. 
The Warriors played last night dispatching Dallas, 130-112, in impressive style. Dallas played well in that loss despite the lopsided score. The Warriors had to use their best players for 34-36 minutes and lost center Andrew Bogut to an injury in the game. That means the Warriors are down three of their top eight players with Andre Iguodala and Festus Ezeli also out with injuries. 
The Spurs have one of the best and deepest frontcourts in the league with Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, David West and Boris Diaw. The Warriors are at an extreme disadvantage here being thin upfront. 
Golden State has failed to cover four of the last five times when playing without rest. San Antonio is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games when going against an opponent with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

The Clippers are less awesome minus Blake Griffin. They don't have the star power to cover double-digit type road spreads in letdown spots, which this matchup is for them. 

The Clippers just buried the Rockets in Houston two nights ago in a highly-satisfying grudge match victory. Before that game, the Clippers played the Spurs and hosted the Cavaliers in a nationally televised matchup this past Sunday. Now the Clippers get the crippled Grizzlies. This is LA's third of five straight road games. The Clippers play at New Orleans on Sunday and then travel to Golden State in a real test matchup for them. So this looms as a flat spot for the Clippers.
LA is 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win and can be excused if it doesn't take the Grizzlies serious. Memphis is down Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies' third best player, Zach Randolph, has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row, three of those coming on the road. They are fighting hard to maintain their playoff spot. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies, who always have held a strong home-court. Memphis has won five of its last seven games at FedEx Forum despite its injuries. The Grizzlies have covered 73 percent of their last 22 home contests. They also have covered in 11 of the past 13 meetings versus the Clippers.
There's a chance both Randolph and Vince Carter, who has missed the last four games with a strained calf, return for this game. That would be an added bonus but I like the Grizzlies in this spread range even at far less than 100 percent. 
Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, two emotional players and former Clippers, are playing at high levels for Memphis. Stephenson is averaging 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in his last four games, while Barnes has contributed an average of 16 points and 8.2 rebounds during his last five games. Both of these players will be sky-high for this matchup. 

Don't get caught overthinking this matchup. Yale is Yale and Duke is Duke. 
What does that mean? Yale is a smart, fundamentally sound team that upset Baylor on Thursday because of those traits. This is heady stuff for Yale winning its first NCAA Tournament game ever. 
But Yale is not going to be able to exploit those traits against Duke, which not only plays smart, too, but has big edges in talent, size and big-game experience. The Bulldogs made an amazing 21 of 33 (64 percent) shots from 2-point range against the Bears getting good looks most of the time because of patience and crisp ball movement. Duke is far better defensively. The Blue Devils know Yale's style. Tactics aren't going to work for the Bulldogs. It's going to be talent versus talent - and Duke easily wins that battle and the war. 
These teams actually met back on Nov. 25 at Duke. Yale hung in for a half, but the Blue Devils figured things out back then and won, 80-61. Amile Jefferson no longer is in Duke's rotation like he was for that game. But this is all part of the Duke is Duke mantra, which is reserves who would be excellent starters on many teams.  
The Blue Devils have a stockpile of young talent that is emerging at just the right time, including 7-footer Marshall Plumlee, who can be very effective against the undersized Bulldogs. The Blue Devils have a history of peaking just at the right time. They were 7-1 SU and ATS in post-season tournaments last year in capturing the national championship. 

Forget Notre Dame's last game, a 78-47 loss to North Carolina. I see the Irish getting their offense back as Michigan is going to have problems defending Notre Dame big man Zach Augste. That's going to open things up for Demitrius Jackson and others. The Irish ranked 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency with Jackson running things. 

The Irish also can take advantage of a Michigan heavy fatigue factor as this marks the Wolverines fifth game in nine days. Because of backcourt injuries, the Wolverines are thin in the reserves. The Irish have had a week to rest and prepare. 

The record shows a 2-6 mark for Portland in its last eight games and just a 1 1/2 game lead for the Trail Blazers over Utah for the final playoff spot in the West.
A closer look at the Trail Blazers' tailspin reveals that their last six losses - all on the road - were against the Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, Pistons, Raptors and Celtics. Now Portland drops down in class to face the decimated Pelicans. 
I see a strong effort forthcoming from the Blazers and a bounce back victory. New Orleans is down five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. Point guard Norris Cole is questionable. The Trail Blazers have a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
The Pelicans are 2-8 in their last 10 games, an adrift team without hope. The only team the Pelicans have beaten during this span is the Kings. Three of New Orleans' starters are Dante Cunningham, Omer Asik and Toney Douglas. So it's not a surprise the Pelicans have problems beating any team with a pulse. 
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS the past nine times facing a foe with a winning record, while Portland is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times against opponents with a losing record. 

There is tremendous parity in this year's NCAA Tournament, more than in most years. So getting this many points with an underseeded Stephen F. Austin team is excellent value. 
The Lumberjacks are 88-13 and have dominated the Southland Conference going 53-1 during the past three years. The Lumberjacks rank 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.7 and 13th in the country in defense holding foes to 63.2 points per game. Senior Thomas Walkup is one of the best guards in the country. 
But can Stephen F. Austin step up versus West Virginia? I believe they can. The Lumberjacks upset VCU two years in the NCAA Tournament and lost to Utah last year in the tournament by seven points after trailing by only two with 31 seconds left. West Virginia barely beat Buffalo last year in its opening round NCAA Tournament game. 
The Lumberjacks are physical enough to handle West Virginia and have the guard play to handle the Mountaineers' presses. This has all the makings of one or two possession game. 

I like taking a hot team that is being underrated because of a bad conference tournament loss. That team is Wisconsin, winners of 11 of their last 14 games but off a bad Big Ten Tournament loss to Nebraska. 
It's hard to underestimate a team that reached the NCAA Tournament finals last season like the Badgers did, but that's what the national media is doing. No, the Badgers don't have Bo Ryan and Frank Kaminsky anymore. But Greg Gard has been Ryan's long-time right-hand man and has steadied the Badgers' ship after a rocky 9-9 beginning. Kaminsky is with the Charlotte Hornets now, but the Badgers still maintain an inside edge with Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes. 
The Badgers hold a serious tournament experience edge against the Panthers, who have only four of 11 core players with NCAA Tourney experience. The Panthers are 0-9 ATS in March the past two seasons. The Panthers are going to need to shoot extremely well to beat the Badgers, who rank 25th defensively and give up four fewer points per game than Pitt.