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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-05-20	South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	67-77	Loss	-110	14 h 56 m	Show
Only five teams have surrendered fewer points per game than Houston. The 3-0 Cougars have held their foes to 52 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the floor while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per game. Houston has become much more of a half-court team slowing down pace. That has factored into the Cougars' strong defensive showing. South Carolina has been slow to begin the season without getting to play any exhibition games. The Gamecocks are averaging 65.5 points in losing 78-62 to Liberty and beating Tulsa, 69-58. The Gamecocks are better on defense than they are on offense. Games played at Houston historically are lower-scoring than projected. The Under is 21-7-1 in the Cougars' last 29 home contests.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin -14	Top	14-6	Loss	-110	76 h 13 m	Show
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin OVER 44.5		14-6	Loss	-105	38 h 48 m	Show
No, this low total isn't weather-related. The oddsmaker is just giving too much respect to Wisconsin's defense and not enough to Indiana's offense. Yes, the Hoosiers lost their star QB, Michael Penix Jr., for the season. But former Utah QB Jack Tuttle is one of the better backup QB's. He's a downfield passer with plenty of high-caliber receiving weapons and an excellent running back, Stevie Scott. The Hoosiers just rushed for 234 yards against Maryland in their last game. Wisconsin's offense is much better than it looked against Northwestern two weeks ago. The Badgers were idle last week after their game was cancelled. The extra time is good for their banged-up receiving corps and gives them ample time and motivation to scheme against Indiana, whose defense heavily relies on turnovers. Making the Badgers more dangerous than in previous years is the emergence of highly-touted freshman QB Graham Mertz. He could be Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. Weather won't be a problem as the forecast is for a clear day with no wind and temperatures in the 30s.
12-05-20	Tulsa v. Navy +12.5		19-6	Loss	-104	13 h 58 m	Show
Tulsa struggles to win by margins with just one victory coming by more than eight points. I can see home 'dog Navy hanging in especially given the weather conditions in Annapolis. Rain and heavy winds, which could turn into gusts, have caused this total to be lowered. Points are more at a premium now. The bad weather is much better for Navy, too. The Midshipmen are heavily ground-oriented while Tulsa is a passing team operating from the spread. Navy held high-powered Memphis to 10 points in its last game. Memphis averages 33 points on the season. Tulsa is 0-5 lifetime against Navy in AAC league play. Navy beat the Golden Hurricane, 45-17, last season. Navy does have Army on deck. That's one of college football's biggest rivalries. Still, Navy has plenty of incentive for this game. It's Senior Day with 26 Navy seniors playing in their final home game. The Midshipmen have won an extraordinary 17 straight games on their Senior Day.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 57.5	Top	3-31	Win	100	77 h 35 m	Show
Both teams are 0-4 and have terrible offenses. Bowling Green ranks 126th in scoring averaging 13.5 points. The Falcons are 111th in yards gained. Akron isn't much better being 123th in scoring at 16.3. The Zips rank 120th in yards gained. I don't like either of these team's QB's. Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald has a 1-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Zips QB Zack Gibson has a 3-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio. So I see this total as being too high. Akron has a race chance to win. So the Zips are likely to feed the ball a lot to Teon Dollard, their one decent skill position player. A lot of running plays is going to eat clock. The Under has cashed seven of the last eight times they've met.
12-05-20	Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 52		22-29	Win	100	9 h 24 m	Show
Short on personnel because of COVID 19, TCU coach Gary Patterson has made no secret about his game plan - run. The Horned Frogs want to shorten this game by playing ball control keeping Oklahoma State, with its bevy of star skill position players, off the field as much as possible. The Horned Frogs, though, haven't proven they can effectively run the ball against better defenses. They've padded their status versus lower echelon Big 12 Conference foes. The Cowboys have been dealing with injuries. Their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, is questionable with an ankle injury. TCU has held three of its past four opponents to 80 rushing yards. Only once in the past 11 instances have the Cowboys gone Over the total in December. TCU has gone Under in eight of its last 10 December games.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall +3	Top	83-70	Loss	-103	13 h 23 m	Show
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
12-04-20	South Alabama +10 v. Auburn		81-90	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season.
12-03-20	Montana +1 v. Southern Utah		63-64	Push	0	14 h 43 m	Show
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times.
12-03-20	Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas	Top	42-31	Win	100	11 h 22 m	Show
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
12-02-20	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139	Top	55-59	Win	100	20 h 6 m	Show
Neither Oregon State nor Washington State is expected to be much of a factor in the Pac-12 this season. So far so good, though, as each team is 2-0. Both teams have been winning with defense and slowing the ball down. I'm expecting a half-court type game here with plenty of defensive intensity. Oregon State opened its season defeating California, 71-63, and then buried overmatched NAIA opponent Northwest, 114-42, this past Friday. That was the Beavers' highest-scoring game in 33 years. It also skews their statistics. Their offense isn't as efficient this season minus Tres Tinkle. Washington State opened with a 56-52 victory against Texas Southern. That game went Under by 36 points. The Cougars followed up that impressive defensive effort with a 71-68 victory against offensively-talented Eastern Washington this past Saturday. That game also went Under. Lack of practice time and games being cancelled have slowed down some offenses. Here's a telling quote from Cougars coach Kyle Smith. "It's just an odd (feeling)," Smith was quoted as saying. "The scores in these games are going to be different to where you should be come January."
12-02-20	Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier		48-79	Loss	-100	7 h 36 m	Show
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points.
12-02-20	St. John's v. BYU -1		68-74	Win	100	12 h 1 m	Show
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest.
12-01-20	Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5	Top	62-65	Loss	-110	17 h 37 m	Show
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.
12-01-20	North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern		70-63	Win	100	14 h 4 m	Show
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home.
11-30-20	Stanford v. Alabama -2		82-64	Loss	-112	16 h 33 m	Show
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups.
11-30-20	Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5		96-99	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
Tempo is one of the key ingredients in getting involved with a college basketball total. Xavier coach Travis Steele has his team playing at a quicker pace. The Musketeers have mostly been doing that going Over in two of their first three games. Eastern Kentucky certainly will be willing to run and press against Xavier. The Colonels play at the seventh-fastest pace in the country. "They're going to play really fast," Steele said about the Colonels. The Colonels are averaging 70 points in their two games, but are due to shoot much better from the perimeter as they've missed 47 of 56 shots from 3-point range.
11-29-20	Bears v. Packers -9		25-41	Win	100	21 h 52 m	Show
I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
11-29-20	Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5		76-58	Loss	-115	10 h 21 m	Show
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech.
11-29-20	Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5		27-24	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
11-29-20	Titans v. Colts UNDER 51.5		45-26	Loss	-110	14 h 50 m	Show
The Colts are a run-first team that will be minus their best running back, Jonathan Taylor, and probably center Ryan Kelly. The Titans are going to feed Derrick Henry. They are down to their third-string left tackle with Taylor Lewan and backup Ty Sambrailo both out. Tennessee's next two best offensive lineman, guard Rodger Saffold, and center Ben Jones, are each questionable. Indy ranks in the top five in all of the major defensive categories. They held the Titans to 17 points just two weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill had a season-low 5.4 yards per attempt and a 55 percent completion rate in that game. Expect a brisk game with the clock constantly moving due to many running plays. The Titans will make sure to clean up their punting and special teams play, which was costly to them in their loss to the Colts two weeks ago.
11-29-20	Browns -7 v. Jaguars	Top	27-25	Loss	-104	14 h 44 m	Show
The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
11-28-20	Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State		68-71	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites.
11-28-20	Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143	Top	73-88	Win	100	15 h 43 m	Show
Minnesota is going to be a higher scoring team this season. The Gophers have more players who can effectively score and they are playing at a very up-tempo pace. That was evident in Minnesota's first game, a 99-69 win against Green Bay. The Gophers nearly hit the century mark despite missing 27 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Loyola Marymount showed under new coach Stan Johnson that it will be playing much faster, too. The Lions nipped Southern Utah, 85-83, in their opener. A major takeaway from that game was the number of possessions, it exceeded any of the Lions' games from last season. This is just the fourth day of the college basketball season and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to these two teams yet setting this total too low.
11-28-20	Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -10.5		44-50	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
I want to fade a punchless Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State, which is in a foul mood after getting blown out by rival Oklahoma last week. The Cowboys still harbor Big 12 title hopes, have many huge defensive edges and are much superior in the skill positions. The Red Raiders have lost and failed to cover in all three of their road games, all versus Big 12 foes and all by double-digits. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Oklahoma State gives up nearly 18 fewer points per game than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have only reached 400 yards once in their last five games. They aren't going to be able to hang close to Oklahoma State.
11-28-20	Kent State v. Buffalo -7		41-70	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
Both teams are 3-0. But Buffalo is the elite team of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls are 9-1 going back to last season. Their lone loss? It came to Kent State on the road last season and it came in shocking fashion with the Bulls blowing a 21-point lead with eight minutes to play. The Golden Flashes came up with a recovered onside kick and blocked punt to set up that improbable victory. The well-coached Bulls haven't forgotten. Buffalo has excellent skill position talent in QB Kyle Van Treese and running back James Patterson, who is coming off a 301-yard rushing, 4-TD wipeout of Bowling Green. The Bulls won that game, 42-17, but didn't manage to cover the large point spread. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, however. Buffalo also has a strong defense holding foes to 19 points per game, which rates 15th in the nation. Kent has been a nice story this season, but the unbeaten Golden Flashes have played an easy schedule. This includes wins against the two worst MAC teams, Bowling Green and Akron. Buffalo is the stronger team and has monster revenge.
11-27-20	Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech		83-73	Win	100	10 h 8 m	Show
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games.
11-27-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro		70-77	Loss	-102	9 h 54 m	Show
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock.
11-27-20	Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina	Top	31-17	Win	100	48 h 48 m	Show
The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
11-26-20	Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
11-25-20	Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin	Top	67-77	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points.
11-25-20	Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine		72-86	Loss	-110	10 h 38 m	Show
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country.
11-25-20	Toledo v. Bradley -3		59-61	Loss	-116	6 h 27 m	Show
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley.
11-22-20	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	35-31	Loss	-100	88 h 31 m	Show
Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
11-22-20	Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5		13-20	Win	100	83 h 18 m	Show
The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
11-22-20	Eagles +3.5 v. Browns		17-22	Loss	-115	80 h 20 m	Show
As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
11-22-20	Patriots -126 v. Texans		20-27	Loss	-126	80 h 18 m	Show
The Patriots are far better coached, have momentum with a two-game win streak and match up well to demoralized Houston. The Texans rank last in run defense and second-to-last in rushing. That's a horrible combination made worse by meeting the Patriots, whose strength is running the ball and pass defense. New England is averaging 173.3 yards rushing during its past three games. The Patriots rank third in rushing. Cam Newton is 40-of-52 for 392 yards and a combined 4 TD's during the last two games, victories against the Ravens and Jets. The Texans have only six takeaways, second-lowest in the league. The Texans lack chemistry done in by an early brutal schedule, mismanagement and Bill O'Brien's blundering. O'Brien was a terrible on-the-field coach and Romeo Crennel is not an improvement.
11-22-20	Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 47		9-20	Loss	-110	8 h 32 m	Show
Alex Smith has produced 300-yard in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Washington's offense has picked up with its most productive scoring stretch of the season averaging 24 points. Washington gets to face a bad Bengals defense that ranks 26th in total yards and has the second-fewest sacks in the league with 11. Joe Burrow has lived up to high expectations. The Bengals are passing more now that Joe Mixon is out. Washington isn't generating as much quarterback pressure as before.
11-21-20	Liberty v. NC State OVER 65		14-15	Loss	-113	10 h 35 m	Show
Liberty has been a huge success story this season going 8-0. The Flames have scored at least 30 points in all but one game as Auburn transfer Malik Willis has been brilliant accounting for 24 TD's with his passing and running. I don't see North Carolina State slowing down Liberty's offense. The Wolfpack give up 33.9 points per game and rank 107th in pass defense. NC State QB Bailey Hockman was impressive in helping the Wolfpack defeat Florida State, 38-22, last week. Hockman has played well in his first two starts. He's surrounded by excellent skill position talent. So the Wolfpack certainly are going to put up their share of points. They average nearly 34 points a game.
11-21-20	Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky	Top	21-38	Loss	-110	12 h 19 m	Show
Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
11-21-20	Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 58.5		41-23	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
Lovie Smith is one of my least favorite college coaches. But he has skill position talent with Isaiah Williams and Chase Brown. Mike Epstein is a reliable running back, too. The Illini ran for 337 yards against Rutgers last week. Nebraska's defense ranks 97th in run defense. The Cornhuskers are better offensively than they've shown. They've had the misfortune of opening against Ohio State and Northwestern, who have two of the best defenses in the Big 10. There were 80 points scored in last year's game between the two teams and 89 points produced when the teams met two years ago. Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40's, 20 percent chance of rain and nine mile per hour wind.
11-20-20	Syracuse +20 v. Louisville	Top	0-30	Loss	-110	8 h 6 m	Show
I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
11-19-20	Cardinals v. Seahawks -3	Top	21-28	Win	100	40 h 27 m	Show
The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010.
11-18-20	Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -121	Top	52-44	Loss	-121	42 h 55 m	Show
Spot, double-revenge and superior defense are factors all in Central Michigan's favor. Western Michigan hasn't faced a defense this good yet. It should all add up to a victory for the home Chippewas. Central Michigan has covered seven of its last eight home games, while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their past nine away matchups. Western Michigan is in a prime letdown spot after the Broncos pulled off a dramatic and highly improbable 41-38 home victory against Toledo last week. The Broncos scored two TD's in the final 45 seconds to achieve the near-impossible. They recovered an on-side kick to set up the final touchdown, which came with 17 seconds left. Western Michigan's statistics are skewed by getting to play pathetic Akron. Central Michigan has wins against Ohio and Northern Illinois in its two games. The Chippewas have double revenge and should be highly motivated.
11-15-20	Ravens v. Patriots OVER 41	Top	17-23	Loss	-115	137 h 11 m	Show
The Patriots' defense is worse than many people thought it was. New England ranks sixth-from-the-bottom in run defense and is going against the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. New England surrendered 262 passing yards and 3 TD throws to Joe Flacco on Monday, so it can't just stack the line to stop the run against Lamar Jackson. The Ravens' defense remains a work-in-progress surrendering 28 points in two of their last three games. Baltimore just lost star pass rusher Calais Campbell to a calf injury. Scoring is way up in the NFL. So this isn't a difficult total to go Over. There shouldn't be any weather problems either with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 40s with just six mph wind.
11-15-20	Ravens -7 v. Patriots		17-23	Loss	-105	137 h 10 m	Show
The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
11-15-20	Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers		10-36	Loss	-110	50 h 20 m	Show
Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog.
11-15-20	Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5		12-37	Loss	-110	50 h 54 m	Show
Let's get into this handicap of Denver-Las Vegas Over the total by shooting down three false perceptions. No. 1: Derek Carr is a below average QB, more game manager than gunslinger. That may have been true before, but not this season. Carr has grasped and taken a hold of Jon Gruden's astute modes of attack. Aided by better wide receiver weapons and an underrated offensive line, Carr has a career-high and NFL fifth-best passer rating of 110. He's thrown 16 TD passes with just two interceptions. No. 2: Denver's defense is good. It isn't. Average at best. Vic Fangio is a top-five defensive coach, but the Broncos still have surrendered an average of 35.7 points during their last three games. The Broncos are especially vulnerable to tight ends - and the Raiders have an excellent one in Darren Waller. No. 3: The Broncos' offense is boring, held back by work-in-progress Drew Lock and the loss of their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. It remains up in the air if Lock will become a successful starting NFL QB. So far, though, he's displayed mobility and daringness to throw downfield instead of just check off. The Broncos have loads of weapons even without Sutton with Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Jeudy and Fant have star potential. Denver is averaging 28.2 points during its last four games. The Broncos get to go against a Raiders defense that if you discount a game against the Browns two weeks ago where there were gale force winds and snow that prevented much passing, is giving up an average of 33.7 points in their last five games. Lock should have a clean pocket, too, as Las Vegas has just nine sacks and the fewest takeaways in the league with five.
11-15-20	Eagles -3 v. Giants	Top	17-27	Loss	-114	124 h 15 m	Show
The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
11-14-20	Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 58.5		43-29	Loss	-109	124 h 35 m	Show
Oregon served notice that it could have the most defensive talent in the Pac-12 holding Stanford to 14 points last week. Washington State isn't the up-tempo, throw at will team it was under Mike Leach. The Cougars run far more and play at a slower pace. This is a different type of Cougars team and I expect them to have trouble against Oregon's defense. The early weather forecast is for heavy winds, too.
11-14-20	Arkansas +18 v. Florida		35-63	Loss	-110	62 h 15 m	Show
Florida is vulnerable this week. The Gators are coming off a huge victory against Georgia and taking on a much improved and opportunistic Arkansas squad. The Gators halted a three-game losing streak to Georgia with a 44-28 victory last week. It's going to be difficult for Florida to get up for the Razorbacks. The well-coached Razorbacks have been underdogs in each of their six games this season. They have covered every time, including posting three straight-up wins. Florida QB Kyle Trask is having a huge season. Arkansas, though, has a tremendous pass defense. Only once have the Razorbacks yielded 300 passing yards. Arkansas has picked off 12 passes and is plus 8 in turnover margin. Florida has turned the ball over at least once every game. Feleipe Franks was Florida's QB before coming to Arkansas. Franks has been solid, connecting on 67 percent of his throws with 14 TD's. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team.
11-14-20	Baylor +1 v. Texas Tech		23-24	Push	0	36 h 12 m	Show
Baylor has found a team it can beat - Texas Tech. The Bears have the much superior defense and Texas Tech is the one team they can run on. The Red Raiders are surrendering 40.1 points per game and rank 107th in yards allowed per game. Their defense is the worst in the Big 12. The Bears rank third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Texas Tech hasn't had a 300-yard passing game in its last five games. The Red Raiders have scored 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games.
11-14-20	Notre Dame v. Boston College +14	Top	45-31	Push	0	106 h 5 m	Show
This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
11-14-20	Penn State -3 v. Nebraska		23-30	Loss	-110	33 h 58 m	Show
Something has to give between these two winless and disappointing Big Ten teams. Penn State hasn't had a losing season since 2004. The Nittany Lions have suffered two of their losses to much-improved Indiana and powerful Ohio State. They are more talented than Nebraska. Sean Clifford is one of the better QB's in the Big 10 and Penn State's run defense and pass rush have been there. The team has been hurt by turnovers. Nebraska has managed only 30 points in its losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. QB Adrian Martinez keeps sadly regressing. The Cornhuskers lack a downfield passing game and their running attack isn't strong enough to offset that. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 (18 percent) Big Ten games and are 6-18-2 ATS in their past 26 home games.
11-13-20	Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5	Top	35-7	Loss	-103	18 h 41 m	Show
I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
11-12-20	Colts +1 v. Titans	Top	34-17	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
11-11-20	Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan	Top	38-41	Push	0	17 h 21 m	Show
Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here.
11-10-20	Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5	Top	10-42	Win	100	16 h 45 m	Show
I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits.
11-09-20	Patriots v. Jets +10	Top	30-27	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
11-08-20	Saints v. Bucs -4.5		38-3	Loss	-109	63 h 54 m	Show
The records may not show it, but there's been a turnaround since the Saints beat the Buccaneers opening week. Tampa Bay is now the superior team - and not because it is playing at home. The Buccaneers are a rising power with an elite defense and an offense that could come fully together now that all the pieces are healthy and Antonio Brown has been added. Tampa Bay had the best run defense last year and the Bucs are No. 1 in stopping the run this season overcoming the loss of nose tackle Vita Vea. Tampa Bay is 6-2 outscoring its foes by 82 points. The Saints are a lucky 5-2 outscoring their opponents by merely nine points. New Orleans has won its last four games by a combined margin of 15 points with two overtime victories. The Saints have given up the second-most TD passes in the league. Tom Brady has the weapons to exploit that.
11-08-20	Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5		34-31	Loss	-110	54 h 30 m	Show
A quarterback matchup of Tua Tagovailoa versus Kyler Murray is the headline to this matchup. But this is a sneaky Under play between two underrated defenses against offenses missing key running backs. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 11.3 points during their last three games. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are in the discussion for best cornerback tandem in the NFL. Miami won't have to worry about the Cardinals' starting tailback Kenyan Drake, who is out with an ankle injury. The Cardinals have a bend-but-don't-break defense ranking ninth in scoring defense allowing fewer than 21 points a game. Miami could be without its two best running backs. Lead runner Myles Gaskin is out with a knee injury and Matt Breida is questionable with a hamstring. This could open up carries for plodding Jordan Howard, who is the dream back for Under bettors. Arizona was idle last week. The Cardinals now have film on Tagovailoa, who wasn't impressive in his NFL debut against the Rams last week throwing for just 93 yards.
11-08-20	Ravens -121 v. Colts		24-10	Win	100	53 h 48 m	Show
I think the Colts are a solid, well-coached team with a quality defense. But the Ravens, with Lamar Jackson, trump them especially in this spot. Baltimore is fighting mad after outplaying but losing at home to the Steelers last week because of four turnovers. The Ravens' defense is better than it was last season and their offense has more firepower than the Colts. Baltimore is off its best running game of the season - and it came against the very tough Steelers. Indy hasn't faced the competition Baltimore has. The Colts have feasted on the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bengals and Lions. They lost to the Jaguars and struggled against some of those other lower-echelon teams. The Colts haven't gone against a QB who is the dual threat Jackson is. They also haven't encountered such a strong running attack. The Ravens have done their best work on the road winning nine straight away games.
11-08-20	Giants v. Washington Football Team -139		23-20	Loss	-139	53 h 44 m	Show
Washington has short division revenge. The teams met just two weeks ago. The Giants won, 20-19, when Washington missed on a two-point try with 36 seconds left. The Giants had scored on what turned out to be the winning TD on a 43-yard fumble return. Washington outgained New York by 130 yards. Following that game, Washington buried Dallas, 25-3, outgaining the Cowboys, 397-142. Washington had a bye last week. Rookie Antonio Gibson emerged to run for a career-best 128 yards in that game while Kyle Allen continued to improve. This will be his fourth start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. You might not think much of Allen, but Daniel Jones is proving not to be the answer for the Giants. He's thrown just two TD passes in four road games and has committed at least one turnovers in every game. He's thrown the third-most interceptions in the NFL. I give a talent edge to Washington with Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Terry McLaurin and Gibson along with a coaching edge in Ron Riveria against first-year Giants coach Joe Judge.
11-08-20	Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 55		34-44	Loss	-109	53 h 43 m	Show
Don't let the season defensive statistics of these two teams fool you. The stats are skewed. The Bills are healthier on defense now and Seattle has two key defensive reinforcements - All-Pro safety Jamal Adams and two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap. Seattle's defense looked sharp for three quarters last week holding the 49ers to 117 yards, but let up during fourth quarter garbage time after building a 23-point lead. Adams is that rare defensive player who could be worth something on the betting line that isn't being reflected. The Bills are averaging just 18.7 points during their last four games. They could be without center Mitch Morse (concussion) and deep threat John Brown (knee). The Bills are a ground-oriented team that will try to control the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. Buffalo's defense hasn't been as dominant as last season somewhat in part due to multiple injuries. The Bills are healthier now and could catch Seattle forced to play third-string RB DeeJay Dallas if Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have to miss a second straight week because of injuries.
11-07-20	New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 61		33-39	Win	100	120 h 53 m	Show
New Mexico has played just once this season, losing 38-21 to San Jose State. The Lobos are hurting defensively having lost their top four tacklers from last season. Their offense, though, has potential. New coach Danny Gonzalez is running an up-tempo spread offense. The Lobos did play fast against San Jose State. Hawaii plays at a quick pace, too, under Todd Graham. This is the Rainbow Warriors' first home game. Their offense drops way down in class meeting New Mexico after having a tough time at Wyoming last week. Wyoming ranks 25th in the country in scoring defense.
11-07-20	Washington State v. Oregon State -129		38-28	Loss	-129	31 h 45 m	Show
Oregon State should make some noise this year in the Pac-12 in Jonathan Smith's third season as head coach. The Beavers went 8-3-1 ATS last season. The Beavers return nine defensive starters and are optimistic this could be their best defense during the past decade. Jemar Jefferson provides Oregon State with one of the top running backs in the Pac-12. The Beavers have an experienced offensive line and are high on Nebraska QB transfer Tristan Gebbia. He has a solid receiving group to throw to. The Mike Leach era has ended at Washington State. The Cougars have a new coaching staff under Nick Rolovich and new schemes on each side of the ball. It's going to be difficult for the Cougars to get comfortable early due to COVID disrupting their training camp. They don't have an experienced starting QB either as true freshman Jayden de Laura is expected to start. Washington State has only six returning starters on offense.
11-07-20	South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 54.5		6-23	Win	100	117 h 49 m	Show
Coastal Carolina's defense is for real. The Chanticleers have given up 13.6 points during their last three games. Coastal Carolina has 20 sacks on the season and eight interceptions. The Chanticleers' defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage against South Alabama. The Jaguars are giving up 19.3 points during their last three games, all of which have gone Under. Neither team plays fast. Both are geared toward ground attacks, which keeps the clock moving.
11-07-20	Rutgers +39 v. Ohio State		27-49	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
The combination of Rutugers' improvement under Greg Schiano and an Ohio State letdown puts me on the Scarlet Knights getting this many points. Rutgers knocked off Michigan State, 38-27, opening week and hung tough in a 37-21 loss to then No. 17 ranked Indiana in its two games. The Knights' win against the Spartans is made even more impressive after Michigan State defeated Michigan last Saturday. The Buckeyes could be in letdown mode after defeating then 18th-ranked Penn State, 38-25, last week. Ohio State loses some of its home field advantage as just 1,600 people will be allowed into 100,000-seat Ohio Stadium. Even if Ohio State builds up a huge early lead there may be a reluctance to humiliate Schiano, who was the Buckeyes' associate head coach and defensive coordinator from 2016-18.
11-07-20	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 61.5	Top	38-21	Loss	-109	21 h 17 m	Show
These two teams are a combined 9-2-1 (82 percent) to the Over this season. It's not a surprise as both have strong offenses and weak defenses. East Carolina has Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the country, back after he missed a game because of COVID-19 protocols. Ahlers should have a big game versus the Green Wave, who rank 100th in pass defense. Ahlers is aided by freshman running back Jahjai Harris, who has put together three straight 100-yard rushing games. Tulane had allowed an average of 45.6 points and 582 yards during its last three games, until facing Temple last week. The Owls were missing their starting QB Anthony Russo. The Green Wave is averaging 36.3 points and is the 13th-best rushing team in the nation. Freshman QB Michael Pratt has shown continued improvement. He's accounted for 14 TD's during the last four games. East Carolina surrenders an average of 37 points per game.
11-06-20	San Jose State v. San Diego State -9	Top	28-17	Loss	-106	42 h 47 m	Show
I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense.
11-05-20	Packers -7 v. 49ers	Top	34-17	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers.
11-04-20	Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois	Top	49-30	Win	100	56 h 45 m	Show
Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
11-01-20	Cowboys v. Eagles -8.5		9-23	Win	100	60 h 36 m	Show
A third-string offensive line and third-string QB Ben DiNucci makes all of the Cowboys' fantastic skill position weapons impotent with the possible exception of rookie CeeDee Lamb. The Eagles' defense is strong enough to take advantage of the Cowboys' extensive injuries. Carson Wentz doesn't need his top two tight ends nor DeSean Jackson to put up a huge number on the Cowboys' hapless defense that gives up the most points per game in the league and ranks last in run defense. A maximum effort should be forthcoming from the Eagles against this hated division rival knowing their bye comes up next week.
11-01-20	Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5		26-23	Loss	-108	124 h 31 m	Show
Weather in Chicago can get tricky this time of year. Sure enough the weather forecast is for a windy day with gusts in the 19 mph range. The Bears have gone Under in their last four games. No surprise since they have an outstanding defense and a bottom-five caliber offense. Chicago ranks last in rushing and Nick Foles has become more game manager than gunslinger. The Saints have a respectable defense that should see improvement as injured players such as Marcus Davenport are back healthy. Alvin Kamara is a home run hitter. But even with Kamara, the Saints are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL. Drew Brees rarely attacks deep anymore. The Saints also have been without their two top wide receivers.
11-01-20	Vikings v. Packers -6.5	Top	28-22	Loss	-112	150 h 60 m	Show
The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams.
11-01-20	Titans -4 v. Bengals		20-31	Loss	-125	150 h 41 m	Show
Zac Taylor has been on the job in Cincinnati for nearly 1 1/2 years. So far the Bengals have three victories to show for it. They also are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times as home 'dogs. Taylor has a nice building block in rookie franchise QB Joe Burrow. But right now that's about all the Bengals have. And it's not nearly enough for them to hang with the Titans. Tennessee is averaging nearly 35 points during its last five games. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing last year and he ranks first this season by a wide margin. Ryan Tannehill has become a top-10 QB and has a healthy set of receivers headed by A.J. Brown. The Titans are going to breeze past a Bengals defense that has below par linebackers and multiple injuries both in the defensive front and secondary. Veteran defensive end Geno Atkins hasn't been quiet in his criticism of the Bengals coaching. Cincinnati surrendered 20 fourth-quarter points to the Browns this past Sunday despite Cleveland being minus Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr. The Bengals finished their game against Cleveland minus three starting offensive linemen. They also aren't likely to have RB Joe Mixon back either. The Titans are one of the most opportunistic teams in the NFL with a plus nine turnover margin.
11-01-20	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44		21-24	Loss	-109	124 h 32 m	Show
Both are ground-oriented teams especially the Patriots, who have a struggling passing attack and injuries in their offensive line. The Patriots' strength is their defense, particularly their secondary. The Bills couldn't produce a TD against the Jets last week. The Patriots are averaging 9.3 points during their last three games. The Bills' defense has gotten healthier. The weather forecast is for rain and 15-19 mph wind.
11-01-20	Colts -2.5 v. Lions		41-21	Win	100	84 h 37 m	Show
Simply put, the Colts know how to win. The Lions don't. Indy is coming off its bye. The Colts are much better coached than the Lions and own a far superior defense ranking in the top four in many of the major categories. The Colts are fresh and should control the trenches. The Lions rank 26th in run defense. Jonathan Taylor is lined up for success, which in turn takes the pressure off Philip Rivers. The expected return of superstar linebacker Darius Leonard makes the Colts' defense even stronger. Opposing QB's have just a 7-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus the Colts. The Lions have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been underdogs.
11-01-20	Raiders v. Browns -134		16-6	Loss	-134	25 h 9 m	Show
Weather is going to factor in this game with heavy winds projected. The Browns are a running team, while the Raiders rely far more on the pass. So the conditions favor Cleveland. The Browns' strength is running the ball. Kareem Hunt is good enough to carry the load without Nick Chubb. The Raiders are giving up 32.8 points per game, 2nd-highest in the NFL. Baker Mayfield should be able to pick his spots in favorable yardage situations. The Browns have been opportunistic. They lead the NFL with 14 takeaways. The Raiders are minus 5 in turnover differential. Note this is an early start for the Raiders. The Raiders are 3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS when playing in the Midwest or East Coast under Jon Gruden with an averaging losing margin of 13 points.
10-31-20	Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 54.5		31-42	Loss	-105	37 h 12 m	Show
Sam Pittman is doing an outstanding job with Arkansas' defense. The Razorbacks are giving up 25.5 points a game and lead the SEC with 10 interceptions. Texas A&M gives up the third-fewest yards in the SEC. Neither team is explosive or plays fast. I'm not fond of either team's QB. Both are mediocre. The Under has cashed in nine of the Razorbacks' last 12 road games.
10-31-20	TCU v. Baylor UNDER 48	Top	33-23	Loss	-109	34 h 35 m	Show
Both TCU and Baylor have struggling offenses while also playing at a slow pace. TCU QB Max Duggan has been sacked nine times, while Baylor QB Charlie Brewer has shown major regression. These teams are about defense. Bears coach Dave Aranda is a top-notch defensive guru. He inherited lots of defensive talent from Matt Rhule. The Horned Frogs have put up 14 points each of the last two weeks against Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Bears are averaging 15 points in regulation during their last two games facing West Virginia and Texas.
10-31-20	Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech OVER 58.5		31-13	Loss	-105	18 h 4 m	Show
Fresh off having a huge game in putting up 45 points against Pittsburgh last Saturday, Notre Dame QB Ian Book gets to face a Georgia Tech defense yielding 41.2 points and nearly 480 yards per game. The Yellow Jackets lack a good pass rush. Look for Book to produce another big performance against a Georgia Tech team allowing 60.5 points in its last two games. It has been years, but Georgia Tech finally has a passing game of its own. Freshman QB Jeff Sims has thrown for 1,196 yards and 8 TD's while also rushing for 275 yards and scoring 4 TD's on the ground. The Over has cashed in the Yellow Jackets' last five home contests.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45.5		21-20	Loss	-110	79 h 32 m	Show
Northwestern's offense came out extremely sharp in its opener this past Saturday producing 43 points and 517 yards against Maryland. Yes, Iowa's defense presents far more of a challenge. But the Wildcats' offense is much improved from a year ago with Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey at QB. Ramsey has a pair of good running backs in Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser. Ramsey completed passes to seven different receivers. The Wildcats also have one of the better kickers in the Big Ten with Charlie Kuhbander. Iowa gave up 24 points to Purdue in a 24-20 opening-week loss to the Boilermakers last Saturday. Purdue played without its superstar wide receiver, Rondale Moore. Yet the Hawkeyes still struggled on pass defense. The Hawkeyes have a good running back, too, in Tyler Goodson. Iowa's new QB, Spencer Petras, flashed at times. He connected with eight different receivers. Both teams can move the ball on the ground. Ramsey and Petras are good enough passers to be able to take advantage of this by picking their spots and doing well off play-action.
10-31-20	Northwestern v. Iowa -129		21-20	Loss	-129	49 h 13 m	Show
It comes down to this: I believe Iowa is superior to Northwestern. But the line is short here because Iowa wasn't sharp in an opening-week loss to Purdue while Northwestern crushed Maryland. Now the Wildcats are stepping way up in class here and they're doing it in Iowa City. Iowa's new QB Spencer Petras is going to get better. The Hawkeyees were breaking in a lot of new faces at Purdue. Iowa has the best running back in Tyler Goodson and their defense will prove far more challenging for Northwestern than Maryland's did.
10-30-20	Minnesota -19 v. Maryland	Top	44-45	Loss	-112	58 h 53 m	Show
So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time.
10-29-20	Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49	Top	25-17	Loss	-108	41 h 11 m	Show
The key here is each team reaching 24 points. I definitely see that happening. Only five teams produce more yards per game than Atlanta. The Falcons' offense shifts into another gear when Julio Jones is back in the lineup, which is the case now. Jones has played in Atlanta's last two games after recovering from a hamstring injury. He's caught a combined 16 passes for 234 yards and scored twice in those two games. Matt Ryan has completed 74.4 percent of his throws for 709 yards with a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception in those games. The Falcons are averaging 31 points during the past two weeks. Ryan is your classic pocket passer. He's deadly effective when he has a clean pocket. The Panthers are tied for the fewest sacks with six. Carolina has an inexperienced secondary and a below average run defense. Todd Gurley shouldn't lack motivation to exploit this after his touchdown-scoring blunder this past Sunday helped cost the Falcons a victory against the Lions. Teddy Bridgewater also should have a clean pocket. Bridgewater is proving that he's a quality NFL starting QB with the second-highest passing percentage in the league while ranking fifth in passing yards. The Falcons rank second-to-last in the NFL in defensive total yards and passing yards. They are giving up 29.6 points a game and a league-worst 19 TD passes. Christian McCaffrey is eligible to return here having been out since Week 3 with a high ankle sprain. It's my guess the Panthers hold him out until their next game. It's just a huge bonus if McCaffrey plays because I still like this total to go Over even if he doesn't. Mike Davis has done well filling in for McCaffrey.
10-29-20	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5		17-24	Win	100	39 h 3 m	Show
If you think about Sun Belt Conference football - which is totally not a given - you envision up-tempo, high-scoring games. That's not going to be the case in this Thursday matchup between South Alabama and Georgia Southern. The run-option Eagles of Georgia Southern are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a much better runner than thrower. Georgia Southern averages just 114 passing yards a game. South Alabama doesn't play fast either. Both team's defenses are respectable. The Jaguars give up 24.8 points per contest, while Georgia Southern allows 22.8. The Jaguars held their last two opponents, Texas State and UL-Monroe, to a combined average of 17 points. If you discount a 41-0 win against UMass, the worst team in the FBS, Georgia Southern is averaging 23.7 points in its four other games. The Eagles have a solid secondary that should be able to contain South Alabama's improved passing attack.
10-27-20	Rays +130 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	17 h 15 m	Show
The Rays have met adversity several times in the postseason. I expect them to live again and force Game 7 of the World Series. I'll take a plus price with Blake Snell against Tony Gonsolin. Snell should give the Rays five solid innings. I can't say that about Gonsolin, who hasn't pitched as well in the playoffs as he did during the regular season. Gonsolin has pitched 7 2/3 innings in the postseason giving up seven walks and three homers. I also trust the Rays' bullpen more than the Dodgers' relievers. Closer Kenley Jansen certainly can't be trusted anymore. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is saving Walker Buehler in case there's a Game 7. He said Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias will not pitch in this game. Those are the three best Dodgers pitchers.
10-26-20	Bears v. Rams UNDER 45	Top	10-24	Win	100	28 h 34 m	Show
The NFL likes to have high-scoring games especially during its nationally televised games. The league probably is going to be disappointed when this one finishes because it has the makings of a low-scoring contest. The Bears entered this Week 7 ranked in the bottom-six in scoring, rushing and yards per play. So why are they 5-1? Their defense has given up a league-low 4 TD passes. Jared Goff has had more trouble versus the Bears than any opponent. Goff has a 0-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating of 33.9 in two career matchups versus Chicago. Goff actually has played better on the road this season where nine of his 10 TD passes have occurred. The Rams have held four of their six opponents below 20 points. Aaron Donald entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 7 1/2. He's going to be a load for a mediocre Bears offensive line. Nick Foles has regressed to being more game manager than gunslinger. So this game figures to be conservative. The teams have met the past two seasons and there was not more than 24 points scored in either one.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5		33-6	Win	100	124 h 46 m	Show
Both of these teams lean heavily toward the run. The Patriots have become the Cam Newton show. Newton is more feared as a runner than passer. Each team is banged up in the offensive line, too. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is well acquainted with Jimmy Garoppolo, who served as Tom Brady's backup before going to the 49ers. The 49ers will be without their best running back, injured Raheem Mostert. Despite injuries, the 49ers rank fifth in fewest yards allowed per game, while the Patriots yield the ninth fewest yards.
10-25-20	Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5		43-16	Loss	-126	99 h 18 m	Show
Now that we're heading into late October weather can be a factor. That's likely to be the case in this matchup where snow and wind are in the projected Denver forecast. Kansas City has become more run-oriented. That's likely to stay the same with the addition of Le'Veon Bell. The Chiefs have an underrated defense. The Broncos are missing their best wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, and Drew Lock is trying to get the rust off. Denver scored a combined nine points in its two games against Kansas City last season. Denver's strength is its well-coached defense under Vic Fangio. Bradley Chubb has emerged as a top pass rushing force.
10-25-20	49ers v. Patriots -125		33-6	Loss	-125	56 h 44 m	Show
You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time the Patriots under Bill Belichick lost three games in a row. The spot, matchup and injury situation strongly favor the Patriots, who have covered 67 percent of the time during the past 74 instances following a loss. The Patriots were in a tough spot last week unable to practice on the field because their facilities were shut down due to COVID. It's business as usual this week for the Patriots, who have been able to practice and get back to their normal routine. It's the 49ers who have the bad timing. They just defeated the Rams at home in a pivotal division game this past Sunday. San Francisco has another huge division game next week against the Seahawks. Cam Newton should finally be back to 100 percent. The Patriots are expected to get reinforcements back on both their offensive and defensive lines, including star center David Andrews. The 49ers aren't as lucky. They are down their best running back and have multiple defensive injuries to a number of important players, including Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Solomon Thomas. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't played well this season. Garoppolo backed up Tom Brady before going to the 49ers. Belichick certainly knows Garoppolo's tendencies. Both teams are ground-oriented and conservative. Newton is superior to Garoppolo. The Patriots also have the stronger secondary and Belichick is the best coach in football.
10-25-20	Packers -3 v. Texans		35-20	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
A terrible defense and bad coaching have done in the Texans. Their season, for all practical purposes, was to put to rest when they blew a late lead against the Titans this past Sunday. That loss put the Texans at 1-5 and crushed what little morale they had picked up when Bill O'Brien was fired. Opposing QB's are completing 70 percent of their throws versus the Texans for 13 touchdowns and just one interception. Houston also ranks last in run defense. Look for the Packers to come back strong after being embarrassed by the Buccaneers this past Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davonte Adams should produce huge numbers. Despite their loss to Tampa Bay, the Packers have been strong on the road under Matt LaFleur going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. Green Bay also has not lost two consecutive games under LaFleur. The Texans have failed to cover the past six times they've been underdogs.
10-25-20	Cowboys -108 v. Washington Football Team		3-25	Loss	-108	120 h 44 m	Show
The Cowboys have serious problems. That was evident watching them this past Monday night. But don't overreact to that game. Washington is worse than Dallas. Washington has trailed by double-digits with the ball in every one of its games. Only one team can match that embarrassing mark - and it's not the Cowboys but the Jets. Andy Dalton will have had two weeks of working with the Cowboys' first-string offense. He's a decent QB when he's surrounded with skill position weapons, which he has with the Cowboys. Washington can't come close to matching the Cowboys' offensive talent. So the Cowboys defense doesn't face a stiff challenge here like they did in five of their previous six games. The Cowboys have covered 79 percent of their last 19 division games.
10-25-20	Panthers +7.5 v. Saints		24-27	Win	100	8 h 9 m	Show
The Saints are an overrated bunch just 2-2 in their last four games and lucky not to be 1-3 after pulling off an improbable overtime home win against the Chargers in their last game. New Orleans hasn't fared well following its bye the past couple of seasons and will be without its two top wideouts, including superstar Michael Thomas. The Panthers have shown defensive improvement and a respectable balanced offense despite not having Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS as a road underdog in his NFL starting career.
10-24-20	Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 49.5		34-37	Win	100	111 h 24 m	Show
The offenses are in place to produce a strong scoring game that exceeds this total. Both teams have excellent running backs, promising quarterbacks and returning offensive linemen. Nevada has all five of its starting offensive linemen back along with its two leading wide receivers and three-year starting running back, Toa Taua. Wolf Pack sophomore QB Carson Strong came on last year to throw for 1,359 yards and eight TD's during the second half of the season. He concluded 2019 by setting a school bowl record by throwing for 402 yards and completing 31 passes against Ohio in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Taua and Devonte Lee combined for 13 rushing TD's last season. Wyoming returns nearly all of its first and second-string offensive linemen. The Cowboys have a very good running back in All-Mountain West Conference Xazavian Valladay. He ran for 1,265 yard last season. Sophomore QB Sean Chambers was Wyoming's No. 2 rusher last year. He accounted for 10 TD's. Chambers accomplished this even though he was knocked out for the year with a knee injury in Game 8. He's healthy now and should be able to take advantage of the Wolf Pack breaking in a new defensive scheme with a new defensive coordinator, Brian Ward. The Wolf Pack gave up the third-most points in the conference last season. It's going to take time for the Wolf Pack to learn this new defense, which features multiple looks. Complicating things even more for Nevada's defensive players is the lack of off-season and practice time.
10-24-20	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 62	Top	16-27	Win	100	108 h 7 m	Show
The total is set too high here. Baylor has a strong defense and is coached by defensive guru Dave Aranda. The Bears have played only two games, one of which went into overtime. Texas' statistics are skewed, too, because of a four-overtime game versus Oklahoma that finished with the Sooners winning, 53-45. Both teams should have plenty of energy. The Bears have been idle for two weeks. Texas didn't play last week. The Longhorns used their bye to emphasize running the ball better and stopping the run. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger is the Longhorns' leading rusher.
10-24-20	Penn State v. Indiana +6.5		35-36	Win	100	24 h 15 m	Show
Don't be shocked if Indiana pulls off the outright upset with a straight-up victory. Penn State lost many key players and Indiana returns a lot. The Nittany Lions are down their best player on offense and top defensive player. Running back Journey Brown is likely out for the season with a medical condition, while star linebacker MIcah Parson opted out of the season. The Hoosiers turned the corner last year going 8-5, their best record in 27 years. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is as talented as Penn State QB Sean Clifford. The Hoosiers have outstanding skill position talent with running back Steve Scott, wideout Whop Philyor and tight end Peyton Hendershot. Indiana also returns eight defensive starts, including leading tackler LB Micah McFadden. Penn State defeated Indiana, 34-27, at home last year. Penix missed that game with an injury.
10-23-20	UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3	Top	24-20	Loss	-105	18 h 51 m	Show
Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game.
10-22-20	Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45	Top	21-22	Win	100	18 h 30 m	Show
This is the first time I have ever led an analysis talking about punters. But they matter here because I envision a lot of punting in this Thursday matchup. Not good for viewership, but plenty good for going Under the total. Opponents have returned just nine of Giants' punter Riley Dixon's 18 punts. Dixon has placed half of his punts inside the 20. Eagles punter Cam Johnston ranks second in the NFL in gross average and fourth in net yardage. Don't look for these teams to have good field position throughout the game. The Eagles are off their most physical matchup of the season. They exerted a lot of energy in a 30-28 loss to the Ravens last week after trailing by 16 points midway through the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz was sacked or knocked down 18 times. Now the Eagles have to play again on just three day's rest. Philadelphia will be without its star running back Miles Sanders, who had all but 17 of the Eagles' rushing attempts during their last five games. Tight end Zach Ertz is out, too. Wentz has been sacked a league-high 25 times playing behind a patch-work offensive line. He has the worst completion percentage of any starting QB in the league. He's thrown nine interceptions, two more than he had all of last season. Daniel Jones has thrown one TD pass since Week 1. His nickname has gone from "Danny Dimes" to "Danny Turnovers" because he has turned the ball over 32 times in 18 career starts. The Giants rank last in yards per game and are second-to-last in scoring averaging 16.8. Losing Saquan Barkley for the season was a killer for the Giants offense. New offensive coordinator Jason Garrett hasn't helped, which is no big surprise. The Eagles have a bigger game on deck hosting Dallas next week. They need to physically survive this game keeping Wentz in one piece. A conservative game plan should be in place sprinkled with a little Jalen Hurts. The Giants have held their last four foes to 3.3 yards per carry. New York's defense is better than its offense. The Giants have good safeties and cornerback James Bradberry is above average. The Giants also have the 11th-most sacks. The Giants don't figure to come into Philadelphia, a place where they have lost the last six times, and try to play wide-open. They don't have the personnel for that, nor the coaching acumen. The Giants need to keep things simple for second-year QB Jones and limit his turnovers. Jones has become more dangerous as a runner than thrower ranking 31st in the league passer ratings. The Eagles have held opposing running backs to 3.3 yards per run.