Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Miami is playing well and is healthier than it has been. However, the Clippers are a level higher and have been in Florida since Friday when they defeated the Magic, 107-93. So the Clippers shouldn't be bothered by the early start and difference in time.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 21 games and have covered in nine of their last 11 road games.
The Clippers beat the Heat at home, 104-90, on Jan. 13 despite missing Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who was out with an illness. Jordan is back and playing well with 15 or more rebounds in his last six games. Miami's Hassan Whiteside isn't going to be dominant squaring off against Jordan.
The Clippers also have been getting excellent bench production from streaky Jamal Crawford, who has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games, including the past three. 

The Suns are 2-0 ATS since Earl Watson replaced Jeff Hornacek as head coach. The Suns should provide a strong home effort here, too, in what shapes up to be a low-scoring game. 
This is the Suns' last realistic chance at winning a game before All-Star break as their final two games before the break are against Oklahoma City and Golden State. Archie Goodwin has stepped up nicely for the Suns during their last two games filling in for injured point guard Brandon Knight. Goodwin is settling into the role. 
The main factors, though, for this handicap are anti-Utah reasons. 
The Jazz just finished a 5-1 homestand with a tough 84-81 win against Milwaukee last night. Utah's starters logged big minutes. The Jazz are weak at point guard and may be without backup point guard Trey Burke, who played only three minutes versus the Bucks due to illness. 
The Jazz are limited offensively - ranking 26th in scoring - and a bad road team. The Jazz are averaging less than 85 points during their past two games. They are 7-15 away from Salt Lake City and have failed to cover in eight of their past 10 road contests. 

At plus 4 I'm going to get involved with the Bulls. Chicago is short-handed and playing without rest. But I like the Bulls' bench and don't see them losing by this big of a margin to the Timberwolves, who are 7-17-1 ATS at home. 

The Bulls have covered in six of their last seven visits to Target Center. 

The spot sets up well for the 76ers catching the Nets off their finest game of the season. Brooklyn just upset the Kings, 128-119, at home Friday night shooting a season-high 55.8 percent from the floor and a stunning 18 of 28 (64%) from 3-point range. 
Despite these numbers, the Nets rank 28th in scoring and are 22nd in 3-point shooting. The Nets' 43.7 field goal percentage on the road would rank 29th if it included all of their games. 
Brooklyn is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. They are 3-15 in its last 18 games. The Nets have a better record than the 76ers, but I like Philadelphia's young talent much better. The 76ers also have a better bench for one of the rare times. Only twice all season have the Nets captured back-to-back games the last time coming nearly two months ago. 
The Nets are going to be fat and happy here. This is their lone road matchup during an eight-game span. They just were home for three games and then go back to Brooklyn for four more games following this matchup. 
The 76ers have covered four of the last five times when going against a sub .500 foe. The last time they played an opponent this bad was five games ago when they beat the Suns at home, 113-103. The 76ers then nearly upset the Warriors in their next home game losing at the buzzer. After that near miss they fell flat against the Hawks at Wells Fargo Center and didn't play well in a road loss to the Wizards last night. So Philly should be fired-up here. 

Kansas State has lost 7 of its last 10 and is off a hard-played loss to arch-rival Kansas. The Wildcats are in a bad spot to take on the Sooners. 

Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in scoring and has too much offense for Kansas State, which has failed to break 60 points in two of its last three games and lost by 10 to Oklahoma last month. 

Tennessee-Martin is one of the most improved teams in the Ohio Valley and is playing well. The Skyhawks have won their last two games to even their season record at 12-12. One of these wins was against Murray State, a team SIU lost to by 16 points. The Skyhawks are 6-1 ATS following a victory.
The Cougars are 1-11 in their last 12 games, including four straight losses with two of those defeats occurring as home favorites. 

Normally I wouldn't get involved with Boston College, but it's going to be very difficult for Louisville to be focused enough to cover this huge spread. The Cardinals may also not get many minutes out of leading scorer Damion Lee, who missed practice this week with a bruised knee. There is no reason for Lee to log much time in this matchup.
The Cardinals just knocked off No. 2 North Carolina. They play at Duke on Monday. So they don't care about this game. That is made even more clear following the news that the Cardinals have self-imposed a postseason ban in an attempt to lessen the blow of a potentially stiff NCAA penalty for rules violations. 
The players and coach Rick Pitino just found out about this. They were in meetings on Friday. They obviously are devastated by this news. I envision an obvious letdown with the Cardinals' emotions at its lowest ebb. Certainly their minds are not on this opponent and this game right now. 

As bad as the Nets are, the Kings can't be supported laying this many points on the road. 
Sacramento was playing well, but has cooled off dropping five of its last six games. The cause is a continuing Kings problem - terrible defense. The Kings rank last defensively surrendering 108.1 points a game. That number rises to 114.5 during the last six games. Sacramento also yields the most 3-pointers in the league. 
The Kings have lost and failed to cover in their last three games losing those games by an average of 9.3 points. Yes, those opponents were the Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Grizzlies. The Nets are worse than those teams. But it's still too big a leap of faith to believe the Kings can cover a mid-size road number like this. 
Sacramento has allowed more than 30 points in the opening quarter in each of its last five games. That's extremely difficult to come back from that especially away from home. The Kings have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. They've also not covered during their last six road games against the Nets.
Brook Lopez is having a strong season for Brooklyn. He can get DeMarcus Cousins in foul trouble. The Nets should be motivated after getting embarrassed by Indiana at home in their last game two nights ago losing by 14. Prior to that, the Nets had been very competitive at Barclays Center upsetting the Thunder by 10 points, falling to the Heat by four and to the Pistons by five. 

The Hawks are playing better and their lineup is littered with All-Stars. But Indiana is a bad matchup for Atlanta because of the Hawks' rebounding problems. 
This is proven in the two matchups played this season. The Pacers won 93-87 on Dec. 28 as a 1 1/2-point home favorite and buried the Hawks, 111-92, just eight days ago as 3-point home chalk. Now look at the line. I think it's out of whack. 
Rookie center Myles Turner is showing big improvement for the Pacers, while the Hawks will be down one of their top big man reserves in Tiago Splitter, out with a hip injury. 
The Pacers are at their best versus Eastern Conference opponents covering 76 percent of their last 26 games against fellow conference foes. 

Fairfield is excellent value as a double digit 'dog in this spot against Monmouth being in a revenge spot. The Stags had won and covered three in a row prior to their last game. They are 5-1 against the spread following a defeat.

Fairfield averages just one point less per game than Monmouth. Until their last game, Fairfield was leading the MMAC in scoring. 

Monmouth is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games versus Fairfield.

This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. 
So points should be at a premium like they were when they met for the first time this season on Jan. 2. Georgia State won that matchup, 58-46. It was the fourth straight time in the series that the road team covered as the line was pick'em. This gives Texas State revenge motivation. 
Now, a month later, Georgia State is nearly a double-digit favorite. Home-court certainly isn't worth that many points. Not only are the Panthers way down from last season, but they are in bad form. Georgia State is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in its last five games with its lone victory during this span coming in overtime by three as an 11-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. That was the last time the Panthers were home, which was back on Jan. 19.
Texas State averages only 67.1 points a game. But that's still higher than Georgia State, which averages just 65.7 points a game. 

Detroit is very underrated at home where it is 22-8-1 ATS the past 31 times for 73 percent. The Pistons are particularly strong at home when going against weak opponents covering eight of the past nine times versus foes with a losing road mark. 
New York has lost 16 of its 25 road contests and is 1-6 in its last seven overall games. The Knicks' morale and confidence is at low ebb. New York is hitting the wall nearing All-Star break having lost four times by double digits during their current 1-6 swoon and have been short-handed in the backcourt with Jose Calderon missing the last four games due to a groin injury.
Yet early money has been on the Knicks. Calderon could return for this game and the Pistons won't have shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who injured his groin in the Pistons' road loss last night against the Celtics.
Expect Detroit to bounce back, though, even minus Caldwell-Pope. The Pistons should be super motivated as this is the first time they are playing in a game televised by TNT since 2009. Detroit also has revenge for a 108-96 road loss to the Knicks on Dec. 29.  

I see this game going under the total mainly due to Kansas State. The Wildcats are strong enough size-wise and defensively to stay within this double-digit spread in this heated in-state rivalry matchup. However, they lack scoring especially with point guard Kamau Stokes unlikely to play after suffering a knee injury this past Saturday. 

Away from home, the Wildcats are averaging less than 62 points a game during Big 12 Conference action. The under has cashed six of the last seven times the Jayhawks have hosted a foe with a losing road record. 

The apathetic Nets are limping toward the All-Star break having lost 14 of their last 16. They also have dropped 15 of their last 17 at home. Brooklyn is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games.  
Indiana is a far better team and will be fired-up after suffering a tough overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday that halted their two-game win streak. The Pacers have gotten more physical on their front line and Paul George and Monta Ellis are due for big scoring games. 
Indiana is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games versus Eastern Conference foes while the Nets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against Eastern Conference foes. The Pacers defeated the Nets, 104-97, at home in their last meeting on Dec. 18 despite not being pleased with the officiating, shooting 41.6 percent from the floor and missing 21 of 28 shots from 3-point range. 

The over has cashed four of the last five times these teams have met, including in the first meeting this season when UNLV won 86-74. That went over the total by 14 points despite neither teams shooting better than 40 percent from the floor and missing 30 of 43 3-point shots.

That game was played at a fast pace. This one should, too, especially with UNLV rebound and blocked shots leader Ben Carter out making New Mexico more of a threat to score inside. 

The Bulls are due to play better and Utah hasn't won three games in a row all season. 
Chicago should be fired-up after giving up an embarrassing 69 points in the second half during its 120-93 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That was a day game giving the Bulls a few extra hours in this second of consecutive games. The Bulls should be accustomed to the time difference as this is their third consecutive West Coast game. Chicago opened its road trip with a 114-91 victory against the Lakers this past Thursday. 
The Jazz are healthier than they have been, but I like the Bulls' talent better especially in the backcourt with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. The Jazz have played a very weak recent schedule - having faced the Timberwolves this past Friday in their last game, Hornets twice, Pistons, Nets, Knicks, Lakers and Kings. Detroit is the only one of those teams above .500.
Utah is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest. The Bulls have beaten Utah in seven of the past nine meetings.

DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are studs and Toronto is an underrated offensive team. This line is another example of that.

The Raptors have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The over has cashed in seven of Toronto's last nine road contests.

The Nuggets aren't playing good defense during this span surrendering an average of 111.4 points during their last eight games. Denver, though, has scored 100 or more points during its last eight games. The over has cashed in six of Denver's past seven home games. 

Neither team is in good offensive form. Dallas hasn't broken the 92-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Hawks are averaging 87.3 points during their last three games.
If you discount their game against the Warriors, the Mavericks are giving up 82.3 points per game during their last three games.
The under has cashed in seven of Atlanta's last nine games. The under has cashed in eight of Dallas' past 10 road games. The under also has won the past four times these teams have met.
Expect a slow pace with each team having played yesterday and trying to work out their offensive problems. The Hawks are in action for the fourth time in six days. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in seven days. So the tempo does not figure to be fast. 

I see a kill spot here for the Warriors after they narrowly escaped the 76ers last night, winning 108-105. The Warriors almost blew a 24-point lead. Look for a more focused effort after that scare especially now that they've settled into East Coast time playing their second of three road games in a row. 
Stephen Curry and Co. would like to prove themselves in the media center of the country with a big performance. The Warriors could be at full strength, too, with center Festus Ezeli possibly returning after missing two games with an injured knee and Andre Iguodala back after being rested for the first time this season in last night's game. 
Golden State is 10-1 when playing without rest. The Warriors also are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 11-2 ATS following a non-cover. 
The Warriors lead the league in scoring and have been at their offensive-best averaging a staggering 122.3 points in their last seven games. The Knicks are much improved this season, but they have only managed to defeat the hapless Suns during their last five games.  

Memphis is coming on winning six of its last seven. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 home games and have scored at least 101 points in each of their past seven games. 
Since December, the Grizzlies' defensive statistics would rank among the top three. Sacramento ranks last defensively surrendering an NBA-worst 107.9 points per contest. That's nine more points per game than Memphis allows. The Kings are in terrible form, too, yielding an average of 118.3 points in their last three games. 
This marks the Kings' third consecutive road game. They've lost their last two by an average of 12 points falling to the Pelicans - who were missing three starters - and to the Trail Blazers. Sacramento returns home to face the Bucks on Monday so focus may be an issue for a team that has a history of being weak on the road and lacking maturity. 
The Kings have dropped their last 10 games at Memphis. Sacramento has been minus its second-leading scorer, Rudy Gay, for the last two games because of an eye injury. Gay, however, is likely to play against the Grizzlies. Kings coach George Karl also wasn't at practice on Friday because of gastroenteritis.

Golden State has failed to cover in nine of the last 12 times it has played an opponent with a losing home record. 

The 76ers are better than perceived with the additions of Ish Smith at point guard and Mike D'Antoni to the assistant coaching ranks. Since Smith came on board, the 76ers have gone 6-10 straight-up and 10-6 against the spread. Two of the 76ers' losses during this time came in overtime. 

Philly has had two days off to gear up for this ultimate home challenge. The 76ers are idle then until Wednesday so a full effort should be forthcoming while the Warriors play at the Knicks on Sunday.

Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos may just have the best player in the Mountain West Conference in James Webb III. He scored 23 points when the Broncos beat New Mexico, 69-59, on the road last season. The Lobos held Webb in check in last season's rematch at Boise State. However, the Broncos still won, 76-65, because Nick Duncan connected on eight 3-pointers.
Don't expect anything to change now that we've turned the calendar year. Boise State remains a bad matchup for New Mexico because of the style of the two teams. Boise State is an up-tempo team that likes to fire up 3-pointers. The Broncos are especially dangerous at home. Discounting their game against San Diego State, which ranks first in the country in defensive field goal percentage, the Broncos are averaging 86.3 points during their last home contests. 
New Mexico can run, too, but often prefers to set up their big men with inside touches. The Lobos lack Boise State's scoring depth and explosiveness. 
Just two weeks ago, New Mexico lost to Wyoming at home. By contrast, Boise State just beat Wyoming by 10 points on the road a week ago. 

Minnesota is giving up an average of 113.6 points in its last three games and isn't trustworthy defensively on the road where the over has cashed in all but one of the last eight times when the Timberwolves have played a foe with a winning home record. The Timberwolves are getting major scoring contributions from their young players and Ricky Rubio is doing a good job setting up his teammates. 

Utah has picked up its offense scoring 101 or more points in six of its last seven games. The over has cashed 12 of the last 15 times the Jazz have hosted the Timberwolves. 

The last time these two teams met was Dec. 23. Dallas nipped Brooklyn, 119-118. While I don't expect that many points to be scored, I do believe this game will go over 200 points. 
The Nets aren't winning, but they are playing at a faster pace under interim coach Tony Brown, who spent three seasons as an assistant coach to Mavericks head man Rick Carlisle. Dallas is surrendering an average of 110.3 points during their last four games. This has coincided with underrated center Zaza Pachulia missing the past four games because of a sore Achilles. Brook Lopez should be line for a big game if Pachulia remains out. 
Dallas is averaging 105.5 points in its last six games. Chandler Parsons is playing his best ball during this stretch averaging 25.4 points on 58.7 percent shooting during his last five games. Dirk Nowitzki should have more energy having been rested in Dallas' last game this past Wednesday and Deron Williams is due to face his former teammates for the first time having missed the earlier meeting. Williams certainly won't lack incentive. 
The Nets haven't been playing any defense lately allowing 107 points and 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during their last seven games. 

It's not that I think Houston and Oklahoma City aren't going to score a lot of points. But a lot has to go right offensively for these teams to combine to reach a total this high. It didn't happen when they first met this season with the Rockets winning, 110-105, on Nov. 2.
In fact, rarely have these teams gone over when meeting. The under has cashed 10 of the past 14 times in the series, including six of the last seven times in Oklahoma City. 
Houston's defense should be better with Dwight Howard patrolling the middle again after returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for three games. The Thunder's offense may be off playing for the fourth time in six days and being home for the first time in a week following a four-game road trip.
Oklahoma City should have great defensive motivation after giving up 120 points or more in back-to-back games for the first time since 2009. The Thunder are justifiably getting ripped for this - and it's also a factor in the oddsmaker assigning such a high total. The Thunder's interior defense is better with big man Steven Adams back healthy and prepared to log big minutes again. 

No knock here on Boston. The Celtics are playing well winning seven of their last nine. But this line is inflated. 
Yes, the record shows the Magic are 1-7 during their past eight games with just a victory against the lowly Nets during this span. But a closer look shows the Magic having lost their last game to the Bucks, 107-100, this past Tuesday. That score is misleading as the Magic trailed by just one point with 30 seconds left. 
Only two of Orlando's recent seven defeats have been by a lopsided margin. The Magic fell to the Wizards - a team they never beat - by six points and lost in overtime to the Raptors, Hornets and Grizzlies on the road. 
The Magic have excellent young talent. Their talent is too good to keep losing. Orlando has a strong recent history against Atlantic Division foes covering eight of the last 10 times against them. Nobody has a higher percentage from 3-point range since Jan. 1 than the Magic's Victor Oladipo.
The Magic have been idle the past two days so there should be no excuses. Boston is playing well offensively, but giving up an average of 102.4 points in regulation during its last seven games. It's going to be difficult for the Celtics to cover this big of a margin when allowing that many points per game.
Note that the teams turn right around and meet again on Sunday in Orlando. So there shouldn't be any running up a score and showing off. The Celtics would be happy to just come away with a victory. 

Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points.  
Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points. 

Zaza Pachulia, Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris aren't going to play for Dallas, which is playing without rest. Golden State is awesome. But c'mon this kind of point spread is reserved for dregs like the Suns and 76ers.
The Mavericks are a borderline playoff team with prideful veterans and a deep backcourt. They actually beat the Warriors, 114-91, in Dallas back on Dec. 30. The Warriors have to feel good crushing the Spurs, 120-90, in their last game. They can't be as high for this matchup. The Warriors have their own big man injury, too, as center Festus Ezeli is doubtful with a knee injury. 

Spot, situation and double revenge motivation factor heavily in this matchup for the Timberwolves. 
Minnesota is home where it has beaten the Suns and Grizzlies in its last two games, rested after being idle on Tuesday and psyched to beat the Thunder after losing to them twice already this month and nine times in a row. 
Oklahoma City is playing its fourth away game in six days. The Thunder had to go overtime to get past the Knicks, 128-122, at Madison Square Garden last night. All but one of the Thunder's starters played at least 42 minutes. Center Steven Adams returned from a two-game absence and logged more than 35 minutes. He might not be able to play nearly that many minutes in this short turnaround. The Thunder are without guard Andre Roberson. He was replaced by Dion Waiters, who played a season-high 42:31 minutes. 
The Thunder's defense is down without Robertson and it will be weakened even more if Adams is limited. The Timberwolves like to compare themselves to the Thunder with their promising second-year players Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns. The hope for the Timberwolves is these players can become stars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now here Wiggins, LaVine and Towns have a chance to compete against their benchmark right at home. All three are playing well with Towns averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last four games, Wiggins is scoring at a 23.5 per game clip in his last four contests and LaVine is averaging 17 points during his last four games. 
Focus, along with fatigue, could be a problem for the Thunder. They return home after being gone for nearly a week following the game and host the Rockets, a far tougher challenge, on Friday. 

This is a big game for both teams with the Kings ahead of the Trail Blazers by one game for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Kings rely onDeMarcus Cousins as their main offensive cog. Cousins is coming off an NBA season-high 56 points. That occurred last night in double overtime. Cousins isn't going to be able to log major minutes and his offensive figures to be off because of the fatigue factor. 

The teams last met on Dec. 27 and there were just 192 points scored between the two teams. The under has cashed 14 of the last 16 times the teams have met in Portland. 

The Knicks should bring plenty of offensive energy into tonight's game having been idle for two days. Those two days off are huge, too, for Carmelo Anthony, who has had a chance to rest his sore knees. The Knicks have gone over 57 percent of the time at home this season, including 10 of their last 12.
Before having an off-game against the Clippers during their last home games, the Knicks had averaged 112.7 points during their previous six games at Madison Square Garden. 
The Thunder rank No. 2 in scoring. In their last four games, they have allowed 110, 109, 109 and 106 points. Part of why the Thunder's defense hasn't been very good lately is injuries to big man Steven Adams and backcourt defensive specialist Andre Roberson. Neither is expected to play today. Their replacements are more offensive-minded. The over has cashed in five of Oklahoma City's past six road games. 

Class difference is bigger than the spread making Central Michigan worthy of an investment. Miami of Ohio has lost 10 in a row and is 0-6 in the Mid-American Conference.

Central Michigan averages nearly 14 points more per game than the Redhawks, who are showing signs of giving up on the season. 

Oddsmakers were influenced in making this line so high because of the team's last meeting, which the Celtics won, 119-117, just nine days ago. The dynamics are different this time around with different players in the lineup and injured players returning. 
That last game left a lot of lingering resentment so both teams should produce focused defensive efforts. Washington has gone under in nine of its last 11 at Verizon Center. 
Boston ranks No. 3 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Wizards rely on their perimeter shooting. The under has cashed seven of the last 10 times the Celtics have played on zero rest. 
There's a chance the Wizards get back Drew Gooden. That would be good for the under as he's a plodding big man, who likes to hog the ball. 

The Wizards are well rested having last played on Wednesday and are in triple revenge mode with the latest defeat to the Celtics coming nine days ago at home, 119-117, in a physical and intense matchup. 
Washington lost that game minus Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. Beal is back now and there's a chance Porter returns, too. The Wizards are playing better winning five of their last seven. Their last three victories have been against the Bulls, Pacers and Heat. 
The Celtics carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and second straight day. Boston beat the hapless 76ers on Sunday. That marked just the Celtics' second win during their last seven road matchups. This also marks Boston's sixth game in nine days. 

Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. 
Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. 
Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. 
The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. 
The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. 
Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. 
Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season. 

These are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring teams in the NFL. The offenses are healthy, but the defenses aren't. 
Carson Palmer and Cam Newton each had career-best regular seasons. Palmer has a healthy trio of wide receivers that rank among the best in football as a unit. He's going against a Panthers secondary down two of their three best cornerbacks. They also aren't likely to have pass rusher Jared Allen. Arizona has scored 26 or more points in 70 percent of their games. 
Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns with his passing and running. He has a healthy Jonathan Stewart in the backfield and faces an Arizona defense that is weakened by the loss of safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. Newton has three receiving targets who averaged more than 14 yards per catch, including Greg Olsen, maybe the second-best tight end in football. Only once in their last 15 games have the Panthers failed to score at least 27 points.

Both teams are playing well - winning with offense. The Clippers are averaging 110.2 points during their last 14 games while the Raptors are putting up an average of 108.4 points in their last five games.
Chris Paul is back playing at a high level for the Clippers. DeMar DeRozan has been hot for the Raptors scoring 30 or more points in his last three games. 

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

Detroit's defense has been slipping lately. The Pistons are giving up an average of 113.3 points during their last three games. The Nuggets are averaging 111.3 points in their last three games.

Some corrections are in order, but not drastic enough to keep this game under. The Nuggets are much stronger offensively now that Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are healthy. The over has cashed in Denver's last five home games and also has cashed five of the last six times Denver has hosted Detroit. 

San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. 
Not only are the Aztecs - who are undefeated in the Mountain West - taller, but they have the better athletes, too. They are leading the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and also are No. 1 defensively. 
San Diego State beat Utah State, 70-67, in Logan earlier this season and that was with the Aggies getting some homecooking. Utah State made 24 of 29 free throws in that game compared to the Aztecs making 10 of 20.

Utah State was hurt by big man David Collette transferring to Utah. The Aggies' rebounding hasn't been the same. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Aggies this being their eighth game in 22 days. 

The Nets aren't playing better, but they are playing at a faster pace under interim coach Tony Brown, who replaced fired Lionel Hollins. The Nets have surpassed 100 points in three of their last five games. 
The Nets, though, remain bad defensively giving up 103 or more points in all but one of their last seven games. They rank third from last in the league in defensive field goal percentage. 
The Jazz have picked up their offense averaging 101 points in regulation during their last four games. 

The Knicks are in a vulnerable spot for this matchup. New York got past the 76ers, 119-113, in double overtime at home this past Monday and then escaped Utah in overtime at home two nights ago, 118-111. 
Now the Knicks host the Clippers. New York isn't close to being as good as the Clippers. Yet the line is around pick because the Clippers played and lost last night at the Cavaliers, 115-102. There shouldn't be a fatigue factor, though. None of the Clippers played more than 34 minutes and the team had been idle the previous two days. 
Chris Paul is playing at a high level giving the Clippers a huge edge at point guard. Expect a strong defensive effort, too, from the Clippers after Paul expressed his displeasure with LA's defense last night. 
The Clippers have a history of taking care of business versus sub .500 teams going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times against them. The Clippers have beaten the Knicks six times in a row, covering the past four. 
LA also is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight Eastern Conference games and 9-3 ATS following a non-cover. 

Power ratings-wise this game should prove very close. St. Peters is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven Metro Atlantic Athletic games and have covered in 4 of their last 5 road matchups. The Gaels, meanwhile, have failed to cover in their last six home games. They also have not covered during their last 5 conference games. 

Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. 
The Gaels are No. 2 in the nation in scoring margin winning by an average of 20.5 points a game while ranking third in fewest points allowed per game at 58. Impressive, yes. But a soft home schedule has contributed to Saint Mary's dominance. I believe it's a mistake to make the Gaels a favorite against Gonzaga even though they are 13-0 at home. 
We've been down this road before with these two teams. Gonzaga was an underdog in 2013 and 2014 to Saint Mary's. The Zags won those games by 28 and 17 points, respectively. Simply put, Saint Mary's doesn't beat Gonzaga. The Zags have been the class of this conference since the late 1990s and still are the class of this conference. They have defeated the Gaels eight consecutive times, covering the past seven times. 
Gonzaga is very strong again at 14-4 with its four losses coming by a combined 12 points. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring and rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense. They have two of the top six scorers in the conference with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who also leads the WCC in rebounding. 
The Zags have won the past three meetings at McKeon Pavilion. Their 13-game road win streak is the longest in the NCAA. Saint Mary's is going to feel the pressure of being the favorite. The Gaels have been involved in two games decided by single-digits and lost both - blowing a late lead to California in a 63-59 road loss and falling to Pepperdine, 67-64, two games ago as an 8 1/2-point road favorite. 
The Gaels blew a 17-point lead at home to Gonzaga when the teams last played on Feb. 21 of 215. The Zags won that game, 70-60. Bottom line: Saint Mary's isn't ready to beat Gonzaga. Getting points is a bonus. 

The Grizzlies are a season-best five games above .500, brimming with confidence and have point guard Mike Conley back from an Achilles injury that caused him to miss six games. Conley had 15 points and 10 assists in his return helping Memphis defeat New Orleans, 101-99, at home two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies rank sixth defensively giving up 98.7 points per game, which is five less points per game than Denver allows. During the last five weeks, the Grizzlies have played even tighter defense surrendering 95.2 during their past 18 games. That would rank No. 2 in the league if computed for the entire season.
Denver is 0-14 when outrebounded. The Grizzlies have outrebounded their last two foes by a combined 14 boards. They are one of the most physical teams in the league with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. 
The Nuggets rank second-to-last in 3-point defense. The Grizzlies have been hot from beyond the arc hitting 48.9 percent during their last three games. The Grizzlies also have defeated the Nuggets in five of the last six meetings, including 91-84 on Jan. 8 at home. 

The Pelicans are trying to launch a desperate bid to gain the final Western Conference playoff spot. New Orleans is playing better lately winning three of four with the one defeat during this span occurring by two points on the road to Memphis.
New Orleans has been hit hard by injuries this season, with the latest loss being Eric Gordon. However, the rest of the key Pelicans are healthy, including Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans. Holiday no longer is under a minutes restriction. 
The Pelicans catch the Pistons playing without rest and in a letdown spot after they upset the Rockets on the road last night. Detroit caught a break because the Rockets lost center Dwight Howard just one minute into the game. 
Andre Drummond may have tired arms after shooting a franchise-record 36 free throws against Houston. Anthony Davis is one of the few big men who trumps Drummond. 
The Pistons were 1-4 SU and ATS during their previous five road contests before surprising Houston. Detroit is 2-5 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest and has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to New Orleans. 

Detroit is one of those good at home, bad on the road clubs. Detroit is 14-7 at home, but 8-12 SU and ATS away. The Pistons have had particular problems at Houston losing nine in a row there going 2-6-1 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in their last six visits. 
The Pistons have failed to cover seven of the last nine times versus opponents with a winning home record and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. 
Sparked by a revitalized Dwight Howard, the Rockets are playing well winning six of their last eight. Howard is averaging 20.6 points and 14.7 rebounds during the past three weeks posting 10 double-doubles in a row. He will be highly motivated to face Andre Drummond, who has resembled Howard in his prime while enjoying a breakout superstar season. 
Detroit received a lot of accolades for beating the Warriors at home this past Saturday, but that was its only victory during the past four games. 

Boston has cranked up its offense averaging 113.2 points during its last five games. However, the Celtics are surrendering an average of 110.4 points during this span.

Toronto is in a good scoring groove, too, averaging 108.6 points in its last three games. The over has cashed in nine of Toronto's last 12 games. 

Washington has revenge for an embarrassing 97-75 home loss suffered to the Heat early this month. Look for the Wizards to get their revenge in a big way as this is a horrendous spot for the banged-up Heat.
Miami is enduring its worst stretch going 1-5, including losing 91-79 to the Bucks at home last night. The Heat had just returned from a six-game road trip that had concluded Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Now the Heat go right back on the road.
The Heat have been outscored by 37 points in their last two games. While the Wizards are healthy with Bradley Beal back, the Heat are down several big men and have a cluster injury problem at point guard with starter Goran Dragic and backup Beno Udrih out. This leaves the Heat inexperienced in the backcourt. Dwayne Wade is trying to take over some of the ball handling, but he's bothered by a sore shoulder. John Wall against Tyler Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. 
The Wizards have been playing better winning four of their last six. However, they are off a double-digit home loss to Portland this past Monday. So the Wizards should be rested and ready. 

These two teams just met a week ago at Indiana and the total was lined at 205. The Pacers won, 116-97. That game went over and Indiana has surrendered 118 points to the Wizards and 129 to the Nuggets during its last two games.
So now we have a total four points higher that it was just seven days ago. That makes sense. But it also makes sense that the Pacers - who rank in the top 10 defensively and are the sixth-stingiest 3-point defense - will play better defense especially after allowing an NBA-high 45 fourth quarter points to the Nuggets. Defense was the focus of the Pacers' Monday practice. 
The Suns' offense has gone downhill with their leading scorer Eric Bledsoe out. Phoenix is averaging 95.5 points in its last four games. Indiana could be without its point guard and fourth-leading scorer, George Hill, for a second straight game due to a personal matter. Hill is questionable. 

The combination of a due factor for Alabama, an Auburn letdown following its upset home victory against Kentucky and a banged-up Kareem Canty make the Crimson Tide worthy of an investment.
Auburn ended an 18-game losing streak while beating a ranked team for the first time in four years when it downed the Wildcats, 75-70, this past Saturday. The Tigers came from down 47-35 to pull off the victory against the 14th-ranked Wildcats. 
Alabama is tough defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. Canty, who ranks in the SEC in assists and fourth in scoring at 19 points a game, was wearing a walk boot after turning his ankle on the game-typing basketball against Kentucky. 

Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland are without question the elite of the NBA right now. The timing of this matchup, though, is well suited for the Cavaliers. 
The Warriors are 37-4, but playing their worst ball dropping two of their last three. The latest defeat being an eye-popping 113-95 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Pistons are an outstanding home team and were sky-high for the matchup. But Golden State has no excuses being healthy. The Warriors shot a season-low from the floor and had their fewest assists, just 18, of the season. 
While I certainly wouldn't expect the Warriors to be that bad again - perhaps not all season - this is another tough spot for them. The revenge-minded Cavaliers are 15-1 at home, riding a six-game winning streak at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is well rested having completed a 5-1 road trip with an impressive 91-77 victory against Houston on Friday. That followed a tough 99-95 loss to the Spurs that halted the Cavaliers' eight game win streak.
The prideful Cavaliers don't want to lose to the Spurs and Warriors in the same week. They also have payback for an 89-83 Christmas Day loss to the Warriors and for losing to Golden State in the Championship Series while missing Kevin Love and losing Kyrie Irving for the series when he suffered a broken left kneecap in Game 1. Irving was just returning from his injury when the Cavaliers lost to Golden State on Christmas. Now he's healthy as are the rest of the Cavaliers. Irving led the Cavaliers against the Rockets with 23 points. 
LeBron James usually can be counted on in revenge spots. James is on a hot run, too, averaging 25.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists while hitting 54.8 percent of his shots from the field during the last six games. 

Early money has been on the Seahawks. It's a mistake. The Panthers are the better team and are in a much better spot. 
So why is Carolina the better team besides obviously having a superior record? 
Both defenses are strong. I'd actually give a slight edge to Seattle's defense, although it is down from its previous two seasons. It remains very good, but not dominant. 
The Panthers led the league in scoring. This includes scoring 27 points on the Seahawks in their Week 6 victory - at Seattle. Cam Newton is a strong MVP candidate. Marshawn Lynch may be back for Seattle, but he wasn't having a good season. Carolina should also get its best running back, too, with Jonathan Stewart expected to start. 
Seattle's offense showed a lot of troubling characteristics against Minnesota's tough defense last week - such as misfired passes, just 5-of-14 on third down conversions, a time of possession deficit and only putting up 10 points. The Seahawks' lone touchdown was set up by a fluke play when the ball bounced right back to Russell Wilson on a bad snap. Wilson took advantage of the busted play to complete a 35-yard pass. 
Seattle would have lost to the Vikings if not for Blair Walsh's missed 27-yard field goal at the end. The success rate of a field goal from that short distance is 97 percent during the past 10 years. The Seahawks also were unbelievably lucky last season when Green Bay failed to field an on-side kick. 
So much of the Seahawks' mystique is built on luck. Carolina isn't getting enough credit for its 15-1 season, including a 4-0 record SU and ATS versus teams who made the playoffs this season. 
The Panthers are rested and home. They have a big chip on their shoulder feeling they haven't gotten the respect they deserve. They are a rising team that is ready for the next step having made the postseason each of the past two seasons. 
By contrast, Seattle is traveling for the third consecutive week. This is an early start time, too, for the West Coast Seahawks. The victory against the Vikings in frigid conditions takes a toll on the Seahawks. Seattle isn't as good as it has been the previous two seasons. The Seahawks' time is now up. 

The Rebels played one of their finest games when they beat New Mexico at home by 12 points this past Tuesday. That was their first game under interim coach Todd Simon. I don't see the Rebels so fired up in their second game without disposed head coach Dave Rice. 
The Rebels hit 27 of 33 (82 percent) free throws versus the Lobos while committing only seven turnovers. The Rebels shoot 66.7 percent from the foul line and were averaging 19 turnovers during Mountain West Conference action before Tuesday. 
There is going to be a natural letdown tendency for the Rebels, who have lacked backbone all season and still haven't received consistet point guard play. 
Air Force has the same 10-7 record as UNLV. The Falcons aren't nearly as talented, but they are disciplined, play solid perimeter defense and have a winning road spread mark. The Falcons also have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to UNLV. 

First off this isn't Minneapolis in January. The game is in the Arizona desert Saturday night with a weather forecast of about 60 degrees, no rain and very little wind. 
Now the matchup. I see both teams scoring at least 24 points. If that occurs, this game does not go under. 
The Cardinals are the No. 2 scoring team in the NFL averaging 30.6 points per game. They rank No. 1 in total yards and No. 2 in passing yards. Only three times all season have the Cardinals been held to fewer than 22 points in a game. 
The Packers' defense isn't nearly dominant enough to stop Arizona's offense especially given that the Cardinals have had two weeks to game-plan being idle last week and Green Bay is likely to be missing its top cornerback, Sam Shields, a fifth consecutive week. These teams just met less than three weeks ago and Arizona scored 38 points.
Carson Palmer, surrounded by weapons and the aggressive play-calling and schemes of coach Bruce Arians, has never played better putting up MVP-caliber numbers. Larry Fitzgerald is the most physical slot receiver the Packers have faced all season. The Packers don't have a defensive back who can handle him. MIchael Floyd is another tall, physical wide receiver. Both Fitzpatrick and Floyd are 6-foot-3. The Packers struggle against these type of receivers. The Packers also have trouble defending athletes with speed. The Cardinals have this, too, among their weapons with John Brown and running back David Johnson, who also is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield and in the return game. 
The key in making this over work is Green Bay putting up its share of points. I see that happening. The Packers' offense regained their rhythm and comfortable fast tempo against the Redskins. The parts always were in place. No quarterback is better than Aaron Rodgers. Even when the Packers' offense was struggling, Green Bay still put up 27 or more points in five of its last eight games. 
The Packers know the Cardinals well now from having just played them. It's a huge plus if left tackle David Bakhtiari returns. But even if he doesn't I'm fine with JC Tretter replacing him. Tretter filled-in well for Bakhitari last week after giving up a first-quarter safety. He's helped by the Packers knowing they must play the Cardinals using a quick rhythm style rather than rely on long-developing option routes, which didn't work in the first meeting. 
Rodgers and Co. are helped by the Cardinals missing the emotional leader of their secondary and maybe their best defensive player, safety Tyrann Mathieu, who is second on the team in tackles despite missing the past two games. This week the Cardinals also found out they will be without linebacker Alex Okafor, one of their best run defenders. 
Then there are intangibles. Arians is the most aggressive play-caller the NFL has seen during the past few years. Mike McCarthy isn't going to be conservative either knowing he hurt the Packers big time with his conservative decisions during last season's championship loss to Seattle on the road. 

Brooklyn has failed to reach 100 points in 65 percent of its games this season. The Nets have gone under the total in seven of their last nine games and in 15 of their past 22 road contests. Those figures should stand up here. 
The Nets are a disjointed, morale-challenged club that is going nowhere. They have one of the worst point guard situations in the league with Jarrett Jack out. Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin are trying to run the team at the point. Sloan logged 32 minutes last night in another disappointing home loss this time to Portland. 
The Hawks played overtime last night losing to Milwaukee. Atlanta scored just 10 points during the final 9:44 of the game, including overtime. 
These teams know each other well having gone six games in the playoffs last season. Already they've played twice this season with 188 points being scored in the first meeting and 178 in the second game. The under has cashed in six of the last eight games in this series. 
Both teams are loaded with veterans, which probably means a slow pace considering each team was in action last night. 

Sparked by hot-shooting Damian Lillard, the Trail Blazers are averaging 109.5 points in their last four games. The 76ers rank 26th defensively and 25th in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are giving up 112.1 points in their last six games, but their offense is better now with Ish Smith at point guard. It's helped the 76ers go over the total in five of their last six games.

This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest.
Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. 
Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. 
Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. 
The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league. 

 

The Bucks have regressed a great deal from last season. They are 16-25 and headed back to the lottery. Milwaukee's defense has slipped, veteran leadership is missing and lack of rebounding has hurt. Not helping matters is Jason Kidd being away from the team on medical leave.  
The Hawks have regressed, too, from last season, but not nearly as much as the Bucks. The Bucks lack the consistent offense and rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's weaknesses.
The Hawks have beaten the Bucks in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past six at Bradley Center. The Hawks should be fired up after suffering their second-worst defeat to the season, 107-84, two nights ago at Charlotte.
The Bucks couldn't follow through on their 106-101 win against the Bulls this past Tuesday losing by that same score to the banged-up Wizards on Wednesday night. 

The Hornets are playing better defense surrendering an average of 92 points during their last three games. Charlotte is getting some underrated defensive play from center Cody Zeller, important when taking on the Pelicans and their star big man, Anthony Davis.

The under has cashed in five of Charlotte's last six games. 

The Pelicans rank 25th in field goal percentage and could be without one of its major scorers as Tyreke Evans suffered a knee injury this past Wednesday. 

No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.

Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape. 

The Bulls have reached triple digits in 12 straight games. The 76ers aren't going to stop Chicago from getting its points no matter if Derrick Rose plays or doesn't.

The 76ers rank among the bottom five in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers' offense is better with Ish Smith at point guard. 

The over has cashed in the last five meetings between the two teams. 

The Celtics aren't playing well enough to lay points against Indiana. Boston is 1-6 in its last seven games and has lost a season-high four games in a row. The Celtics have dropped their last three home games - to the Pistons, Nets and Lakers. All of these defeats were by three or more points. 
The Celtics don't have a lot of height so they need their outside shooting game working. However, the Celtics are shooting just 25.5 percent from 3-point range during their last seven games. 
Indiana ranks sixth in fewest points allowed at 98.2 and are sixth in defensive 3-point percentage. The Pacers are holding foes to 93.5 points on 39.2 percent field goal shooting during their last six games. Indiana would be leading the NBA in defense if its statistics accumulated this month were counted for the entire season.
The Pacers are 4-2 in their last six games. Their past five defeats have all come by four points or fewer. Indiana is 2-0 versus Boston this season, including winning by 11 points during their last visit to Boston on Nov. 11. 
The Pacers are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Celtics and have covered 74 percent of their last 27 Eastern Conference matchups. 

The Rockets have been playing much better than earlier this season when they ranked as one of the league's biggest disappointments. However, this is a flat sport for Houston.
The Rockets are playing for the third time in four days and just won an important road game, 107-91, at Memphis last night. The Rockets have a much more challenging game up next - hosting the Cavaliers on Friday. The Rockets get back point guard Ty Lawson today following his three-game suspension. That's not necessarily a plus for the Rockets, though, as Lawson has not fit in especially alongside James Harden. 
Minnesota has dropped 11 of its last 12. This is far more a fade on Houston, but the Timberwolves do have talent and showed they are playing hard cutting an 18-point third-quarter deficit against Oklahoma City to lose by five points last night at home. 
Houston is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an opponent with a below .400 winning percentage and has failed to cover four of five times this season laying nine or more points. Minnesota, on the other hand, has covered eight of the last nine times it has been on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. 

A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. 
I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion.
The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. 
UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. 
The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV. 

Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. 
Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. 
Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. 
Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. 
Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. 
Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. 

Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  

It's a break for Green Bay to draw Washington in the first round of the playoffs. Although they are struggling offensively, the Packers defense has been solid. The Green Bay secondary will get a huge boost, too, if cornerback Sam Shields can play for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 14.
The Redskins are a nice story winning the NFC East. Kirk Cousins actually had better numbers than Aaron Rodgers. But things need to be kept in perspective. The NFC East was a bad joke this season. The Redskins played only three winning teams - Panthers, Patriots and Jets. They were crushed in all three of those matchups.
Washington lacks Green Bay' long playoff experience and also does not have the speed and talented athletes to exploit the Packers. The Packers have made the postseason seven consecutive seasons and 18 of the last 23 seasons. They know how to step up and deal with pressure. The last time they reached the Super Bowl, which was 2010, they did it as a wild card. The Redskins haven't made the postseason since 2012 when Robert Griffin III was their quarterback. Cousins and the Redskins are totally unproven in the playoffs. Cousins has turnover traits that the Packers defense can exploit and the Washington organization has been dysfunctional ever since Daniel Snyder became its owner. They should not be trusted. Having know they were hosting a playoff game for two weeks only increases the pressure on the Redskins. 
The Packers played the far more difficult schedule playing seven games versus playoff opponents. The Packers won three of those games. Rodgers had a down season statistically, but he still potentially is the best player in the league. Green Bay's offense is much better than it has shown and it's going against a defense that is far easier than other playoff teams. 
Rodgers can take advantage of a Washington secondary that has lost three of its top six defensive backs for the season. In fact, the Redskins are so desperate for secondary help they signed 31-year-old cornerback Cary Williams this past Tuesday. 
It's not a stretch of the imagination at all to project Green Bay to get turned around and for Rodgers and McCarthy - proven winners - to step up and take advantage of a weak division champion that ranks among the bottom 10 in rushing and run defense - yet tries to play a power game - and lacks postseason experience. 

The 76ers are healthy and playing more up-tempo with Mike D'Antoni an assistant coach and Ish Smith settling in at point guard.

One thing that hasn't changed with the 76ers is their lack of defense. The 76ers are giving up an average of 110.1 points per game during their last 13 games. DeMar DeRozan is hot for Toronto averaging more than 25 points per game during his last 12 games. 

Orlando is much improved while Washington has been disappointing up to this point. But what hasn't changed in the Wizards' huge point guard edge with John Wall and the dominance Washington has had in this series.
The Wizards have defeated the Magic 11 times in a row. That includes three victories this season with the last coming 11 days ago at Verizon Center, 103-91. Wall scored 24 points and dished off 13 assists in that victory. Wall is averaging 19.1 points and 10.5 assists against the Magic. The Magic are playing without rest after beating Brooklyn, 83-77, on the road last night and aren't likely to have their point guard, Elfird Payton. He's missed the last three games with an ankle bruise. 
The Magic were lucky to play such a weak opponent last night as they are scoring only 85.6 points per game during their last five games while shooting 42.1 percent from the floor during this span. 
Washington also is playing for the second consecutive night after losing to Toronto. The Wizards have gotten healthy with the exception of being without injured shooting guard Bradley Beal, who is nearing a return. It would be an unexpected bonus if he were to play today.
This is the Wizards' first road game of 2016. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road matchups, including straight-up victories against the Cavaliers, Heat and Mavericks. 

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

The Spurs certainly are going to get their share of points. But what about the Knicks? Can they hold up their end? Well, the Knicks are averaging 105.3 points in their last three games while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. It's their hottest stretch. 

The Spurs lead the NBA in field goal percentage and are No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 118.7 points in their last three games while shooting 56.5 percent from the floor. Certainly these two teams can't keep up this great shooting, but they don't have to have their "A" offenses to go above this total. 

Maybe it's because coach Jason Kidd is out recovering from hip surgery. But the Bucks have been playing zero defense lately under interim coach Joe Prunty allowing 114.4 points per game during their last five games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. 
Milwaukee surrendered 123 points and 54.4 percent shooting to San Antonio in losing by 25 points this past Monday. Then the following night, the Bucks lost 117-106 on the road to Chicago. Now the Bucks take on a rested and confident Mavericks team that has won the past six times in this series. The last time the Bucks defeated the Mavericks in Milwaukee was on New Year's Day, 2011. Milwaukee also is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on two days rest. 
The Mavericks are facing a crucial part of their schedule. They got past improved Sacramento, 117-116, in double overtime at home on Tuesday. The following night Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle took a chance giving the night off to four starters - Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Zaza Pachulia and Wesley Matthews - in a road game against New Orleans. The Mavericks displayed their excellent depth by defeating the Pelicans, 100-91.
Dallas can't afford a loss here in its quest to reach the playoffs in the always fierce Western Conference. After this matchup, four of Dallas' next five games are against Cleveland and then on the road versus Oklahoma City, Chicago and San Antonio. 

Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. 
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? 
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. 
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. 
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. 
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. 
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. 
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. 
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

Wisconsin-Milwaukee clearly is the superior team and catching Youngstown State in a letdown spot.
The Panthers could be 13-2, but lost three games in overtime. So their record is 10-5. One of those victories is against Wisconsin. The Panthers have been money-makers on the road covering 10 of their last 12 away contests.
The Penguins upset Oakland, 100-98, as 17-point road 'dogs this past Monday on a dramatic tip-in at the buzzer. The Penguins achieved this remarkable upset minus big man Bobby Hain, their leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury and won't play today. 
The Penguins sank 16 3-pointers in knocking off Oakland. That's the second most in school history. It's hard to believe the Penguins can be that hot again. 
The Panthers have covered the past four times in the series. 

I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. 
The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. 
Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. 
The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. 
The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. 
If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average.
Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. 
Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. 
The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more. 

I see the Timberwolves breaking out of their scoring slump against the Nuggets, who are allowing an average of 108.2 points during their last six games. The Nuggets have gone over the total in four of their last five games, including the past three. 

The teams combined for 222 points when they last played on Dec. 15 with the Nuggets winning, 112-110. 

I like the Nuggets' offense much more with Danilo Gallinari back in the lineup. He's averaging 26.5 points in two games since returning from an ankle injury. The Nuggets have averaged 10 more free throws per game when Gallinari has played. 

Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. 

This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana. 

Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record. 

Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. 
Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. 
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. 
The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season.
Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back. 

 

Houston has won eight of the last 10 meetings against Utah, covering four of the last five.
The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode with a four-game losing streak. The last two have come against the Warriors and Spurs, the two best teams in basketball. Now they're stepping way down in class.
Utah has gotten supreme efforts in winning its last two games defeating Portland and Memphis at home. The Jazz are without Rudy Gobert, Alec Burks and Derrick Favors, who has missed the last five games with back spasms. 
Dwight Howard should be in line for a big performance with Utah missing its top two big men. The Rockets have too much offense for the Jazz. Houston has reached triple digits in 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz ranks 27th in scoring averaging less than 97 points a game. 

The Spurs are No. 1 in field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point shooting. They are averaging 108.7 points during their last four games.

The Bucks rank 24th in defensive field goal percentage. But are in the top eight in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The over has cashed in seven of the Bucks' last 10 home games. 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. 
The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. 
The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. 
The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. 
The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups. 

The Timberwolves will be fired up to play strong defense after blowing a huge lead against the Bucks in their last game and getting ripped by their coach, Sam Mitchell.

Minnesota has failed to reach triple digits in its last seven games. The Timberwolves are averaging only 89.1 points in their last six games. 

The 76ers rank 25th in points scored and 28th in free throw shooting. They are in a flat spot after returning from a six-game road trip. Philadelphia is averaging just 91.5 points in its last two games. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

On paper this seems like a tough game for the Jets going against their old coach Rex Ryan. But the truth of the matter is the Bills have regressed under Ryan and the players aren't responding to him. Ryan's strength is that of a motivator not a tactician. He is far from the popular figure he was in the Jets locker room. 
The Bills have lost four of their past six games. They are missing the playoffs for the 15th straight season, the longest drought in the NFL. 
The Jets are better than Buffalo on both sides of the ball and in must-win mode. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall are having huge seasons. New York is that rare team that ranks in the top eight both offensively and defensively. 
Buffalo has gone from leading the NFL in sacks a year ago to near the bottom this season courtesy of Ryan down 34 sacks from last season. Buffalo also is without its best running back, LeSean McCoy. 
The Jets underachieved under Ryan. They haven't under Todd Bowles, a superior coach to Ryan. 

New England has been winning with defense not offense. Only once have the Patriots scored more than 28 points during their last eight games. But defensively the Patriots rank in the top eight in fewest points, total yards and rushing yards. New England has held its last three opponents to an average of 14 points during regulation. 
Miami ranks 27th offensively in yards and points. Only once in their last nine games have the Dolphins scored more than 20 points. Ryan Tannehill has not taken a step forward remaining a mediocre quarterback talent with below average weapons. The Patriots shouldn't have problems controlling the Dolphins' pop gun attack. 
The key is if the Dolphins can control New England's offense. Miami is going to be tremendously aided by the Patriots' multiple offensive injuries and Bill Belichick likely to just play vanilla football to not tip his hand before the playoffs. Tom Brady is playing behind a makeshift offensive line. Every original offensive line starter is out or playing hurt. Brady hasn't been sacked this many times since his rookie season. Brady's left tackle, Sebastian Vollmer, won't play because of a knee injury.
The Patriots also are without their best wide receiver, Julian Edelman, and their two best running backs, Deion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots are so desperate for running back help they even brought a clearly-shot Steven Jackson back from retirement. Still, Belichick would like to run the ball a lot in this matchup to keep Brady from getting hurt. 
The Dolphins know their division rival well. Miami actually has won the past two times it has hosted New England. 

Maybe on paper this looks like an even match. But there are several factors working against Arizona State. Add them all up and West Virginia is the clear right choice. 
The Sun Devils last played in November. It has been 35 days since they last were in action. Arizona State is 2-4 in its last six games. The Sun Devils have allowed 449 or more yards during their past five games, including a staggering 680 during their final regular-season game, a 48-46 loss to California. 
On the season, Arizona ranked 97th in scoring defense surrendering 32.7 points per game and 100th in yards per play at 6.07. The Sun Devils' struggling defense is minus injured linebacker Laiu Moeakiola, their key defender. Moeakiola plays what the Sun Devils call the "spur" spot, which is a hybrid position and the most important position in their defensive scheme. Sophomore linebacker DJ Calhoun is replacing Moeakiola. He's comfortable on the weak side, lacking experience at "spur" linebacker. 
West Virginia can take advantage with an offense averaging 33.3 points. The Mountaineers have two strong running backs, a versatile quarterback and a big play wide receiver in Shelton Gibson, who averages 22.5 yards a catch. 
I like the Mountaineers defense better than Arizona State. West Virginia yields 23.2 points a game, which ranked 39th and forced 31 turnovers. Only four teams had more takeaways. West Virginia has given up only nine rushing touchdowns, fifth-stingiest in the nation. The Sun Devils don't have a lot of experience facing a 3-3-5 stack defense and don't have their offensive coordinator, Mike Norvell, who is headed to Memphis. 
Arizona State has failed to cover in six of its last seven bowl games, including not covering the past two years against Texas Tech and Duke. 

Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener.
The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. 
Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. 
Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. 
The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups. 

Dallas is averaging 113 1/2 points during its last four games. The Mavericks offense is better without over-the-hill Deron Williams slowing it down. It's not surprising that Williams has missed the last four games. J.J. Barera, Williams' point guard replacement, has sparked the offensive surge averaging 22.3 points a game during this span while shooting 63 percent from the floor.

The over has cashed in 8 of the last 10 games between these two teams. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

The total is too low considering that each team lost their star big men. Connecticut is minus Amida Brimah following finger surgery while Texas is minus Cameron Ridley, out with a broken foot. 
Both teams are playing more small ball with their star centers out. Connecticut is deep at guard. The Huskies are averaging 93.5 points in two games since losing Brimah. Connecticut has scored at least 70 points in all but one of its 11 games. The Huskies average more than 81 points a game and rank seventh in the country in field goal percentage. The over has cashed 10 of the last 11 times Connecticut has played a Big 12 opponent. 
Texas is averaging more than 80 points a game during its last five matchups. The Longhorns also have four quality guards. 
This game is in the pick range so overtime could be a possibility, too. 

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition.
And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. 
Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too. 

Neither team has a dominant defense that's for sure. But their offenses are worse. The Colts are averaging 12 points during their last three games. The Dolphins haven't scored more than 20 points in seven of their last eight games. 
Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 and running on fumes so beaten up he's not even able to chew food. There's a possibility he can't finish the game, which would mean the insertion of third-string clipboard holder, Charlie "Checkdown" Whitehurst. 
The Dolphins are averaging 16.3 points in their last eight games. They could be minus two key members of their offensive line in center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert. Their replacements are second-year Ulrick John at left tackle and rookie Jamil Douglas at center. 
The Dolphins are on their second offensive coordinator and remain as mixed up as ever. Ryan Tannehill has become more game manager than downfield passer ranking 23rd in the passer rankings. 

On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. 
But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. 
Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. 
The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. 
Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. 
That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. 

The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. 

The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points.

The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center.