The Bulls are laying the most points they have all season. I don't see the spot setting up well enough for them to cover.

Chicago is fat and happy having won two in a row, both at home. The Bulls rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Trail Blazers, 129-121, this past Saturday. This marks Chicago's third game in five days. The Bulls have a much more challenging matchup on Tuesday when they meet the Grizzlies in Memphis. So there's no need for them to go all out against the lowly Spurs. 

Overconfidence could factor against the Bulls, too. San Antonio has lost eight in a row. This is the start of the Spurs' annual rodeo trip. They've been idle since Friday. 

The Spurs are capable of beating the Bulls. They proved that with a 129-124 win back on Oct. 28 during the first meeting this season. San Antonio has covered five of the last six times versus the Bulls.

The Wizards have blown 20-plus point leads in each of their last two games. So they should be extremely focused for this matchup. They catch the Cavaliers playing without rest after Cleveland defeated the Pacers, 122-103, on Sunday. 

This is important. So are the Wizards owning a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus opponents who are above .500 at home. Cleveland also is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing on zero rest and 2-7 ATS following a win. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their past 22 road games. 

That's a lot of trends lining up against the Cavaliers.

Bradley Beal should play for the Wizards after missing their last game this past Saturday due to a foot injury. He participated in the Wizards' shootaround this morning. 

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

I want the Grizzlies going for me at home in this spot. The Grizzlies are in an ornery mood following a 128-113 road loss to the Cavaliers. Dillon Brooks was suspended for this game because of his cheap shot actions against Donovan Mitchell in that loss to Cleveland.

The Grizzlies don't see it that way. They believe the NBA is against them. Memphis has won eight of its last nine home games and are expected to get back center Jaren Jackson, who missed the Cavaliers game due to a thigh bruise. That's huge because Memphis remains without Steven Adams.

Toronto concludes its seven-game, 12-day road journey here. The Raptors just beat the Rockets, 117-111, two days ago. The fatigue factor on the Raptors is high.

The Raptors are 2-6 ATS the past eight times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 52 home contests.

Both teams are struggling offensively as the rugged Big Ten season hits the first weekend of February.

Ohio State has failed to break the 60-point barrier in three of its last five games. The Buckeyes are averaging 63.3 points in their last three games.

Michigan is averaging 63.4 points during its last five games.

The Wolverines have held three of their last five foes to 64 or fewer points. Ohio State defends the 3-point shot well.

So I see defense carrying the day in this one.

The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here.

Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points.

Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game.

Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record.

The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win.

Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions.

Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games.

The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

The Pacers are an underrated home team with a 16-11 record. They have covered eight of their past 11 home contests.

Indiana has revenge for an embarrassing 23-point road loss to the Kings on Nov. 30. The Pacers also have back their best all-around player, Tyrese Haliburton. He played last night scoring 26 points and dishing off 12 assists against the Lakers after missing the previous 10 games.

The Pacers blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Lakers in that loss. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers' previous game before the Lakers was back on Sunday. So there should not be a fatigue factor.

Sacramento will be missing its star guard and leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. This will be the Kings' first game without him since Dec. 11. So there will be an adjustment factor.

These teams aren't as bad defensively as perceived.

The Kings are giving up an average of 108.4 points during their last five games, all of which have gone Under. The Pacers have surrendered 112 points, or fewer, in four of their last six games.

Sacramento will be minus its leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. Fox also is No. 2 on the team in assists. It's a big blow for the Kings not to have him.

The Under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times the Kings have been on the road against a foe with an above .500 home record.

The Under has also cashed four of the last five times Indiana has hosted Sacramento.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

The Pelicans are in full stop-the-pain mode, losers of nine in a row. Except for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are finally healthy now. Brandon Ingram should have the rust off having played in the past three games following a 29-game absence because of a toe injury.

New Orleans is stepping down in class after having played the Bucks this past Sunday and Nuggets two days ago.

The Mavericks aren't fully healthy either minus Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, their second-leading scorer at 18.4 points per game.

Dallas is coming off a victory against the Pistons and has a bigger matchup on deck facing the Warriors on Saturday. The Mavericks are 5-20-1 ATS following a win. They also have been terrible when laying three or more points going 7-20-1 ATS in that role.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

The Thunder should play with defensive intensity having lost six in a row, including giving up 128 points to the Warriors at home this past Monday. Oklahoma City ranks sixth in defensive field goal percentage.

Houston is minus its leading scorer, Jalen Green (calf), and top assists guy Kevin Porter Jr. (foot).

The Rockets have been playing better defense lately holding their last five foes to an average of 112.4 points. This is down from their season average of giving up 117.1 points a game.

There were 223 points scored in the first meeting with the Rockets winning, 118-105, back on Nov. 26. It marked the sixth time in seven meetings the teams had gone Under when playing in Houston.

Carolina is playing great. But the Sabres also are playing well with five wins in their last six games. The Hurricanes face a brutal scheduling spot here. So I'm going to take this big price on the home 'dog.

Buffalo defeated the Penguins on the road this past Saturday night. The Sabres haven't played since. They should be well-rested and well prepared.

Not so for the Hurricanes.

Carolina gave its all in pulling out a 5-4 overtime home victory against the Kings Tuesday night after trailing by three goals entering the third period. The Hurricanes had beaten the Bruins in a huge revenge matchup this past Sunday in their previous game. So this marks their fifth game in eight days with three of their past four games having gone into overtime. Flying nearly 500 miles to Buffalo to play without rest is a horrible spot for Carolina.

I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army.

The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games.

Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule.

Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Clippers were riding a season-best five-game win streak going into their last game. That streak came to a crashing halt with a 122-99 road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. The Clippers didn't play well in that game. They also chose to sit out superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with point guard Reggie Jackson.

I don't care so much about Jackson, who is questionable with a sore Achilles, but Leonard and George aren't on the injury report. Both are expected to play. That's good enough for me to get involved with the Clippers against an inconsistent 23-26 Bulls squad that isn't in a great situational spot. It's Chicago's first home game in a week. The Bulls have been on the road for their past three games.

Leonard and George are playing at high levels. Leonard is averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals during his last five games. George is averaging 24.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games.

The Clippers have covered eight of the past 11 times when playing a below .500 opponent.

The Bulls have a huge revenge game up next hosting the Hornets on Thursday. Charlotte upset the Bulls in embarrassing fashion, 111-96, this past Thursday in Charlotte.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Despite two consecutive losses, Orlando has been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 19 of its last 26 games for 73 percent.

The 76ers have won seven in a row with the last two of their victories coming against the Nets and Nuggets this past Saturday. That's highly satisfying. Joel Embiid sparked the 76ers in that victory with 47 points and 18 rebounds in the 126-119 win.

I see this as a flat spot for the 76ers. So much of a flat spot that there is the possibility they would rest Embiid, who has been dealing with left foot soreness.

Even if Embiid plays, I believe the spunky Magic will hang in. They haven't lost three in a row since late December. Orlando is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times when getting points and is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when playing on one day rest.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday. If Mahomes is anywhere close to 100 percent after injuring his ankle last week, this total is too low.

Even with both team's defenses being underrated, the Bengals and Chiefs have too much offense for a total this low. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Burrow is right near him on that short list with Josh Allen.

The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at more than 29 points a game and also were No. 1 in total yards and passing yards. They have scored at 27 points in five of their last six games.

Burrow has even better weapons than Mahomes has. The Bengals have gone against five strong defenses during their last five games - Bills, Ravens twice, Patriots and Buccaneers. During this span, Cincinnati averaged 26.8 points.

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being for sunny skies, temperatures in the upper 20's and wind in the 10-12 mph range.

Lost in the glare of the Bruins' brilliant season has been the Hurricanes. Carolina is 21-6 in its last 27 games, including 4-0 in its past four games.

The rested Hurricanes host the Bruins, who just suffered a brutal road overtime 4-3 loss to the Panthers on Saturday when Florida tied the game with 2.4 seconds left.

The Bruins are banged-up down a couple of starters and playing for the third time in four days and without rest.

Carolina has had this game marked since a 3-2 overtime road loss to the Bruins on Nov. 25. The Hurricanes have beaten the Bruins five straight times in Carolina.

Not enough credit is being given to these defenses by how high this total is. San Francisco is the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL ranking first in scoring defense and total defense while placing second in run defense and takeaways. The Eagles easily led the NFL with 70 sacks.

Brock Purdy has been a huge success story surrounded by elite weapons and receiving excellent play-calling from Kyle Shanahan. But Purdy only has started two road games in the NFL and has never faced this level of pass rushers. The Eagles sacked Daniel Jones five times last week. Jones is far more mobile than Purdy.

I'm anticipating the 49ers to go run-heavy, which keeps the clock moving, and Shanahan being extremely careful and conservative with his play-calling. He knows the 49ers will be in trouble if they have to play from behind. San Francisco already plays at the slowest pace of any NFL team.

Jalen Hurts emerged as a superstar this season. But is his passing shoulder 100 percent healthy? Hurts and the Eagles haven't faced a defense this strong all season.

Weather-wise there's a slight chance of a rain shower with the wind blowing at 10-15 mph.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

The Mavericks defeated the Suns on the road two days ago without Luka Doncic for most of the game and they can keep this game close minus Doncic.

Dallas has won the past two times as an underdog defeating Phoenix and Miami eight days ago.

Dallas has covered 10 of the last 12 times versus the Jazz, including the past five times in Utah.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

The defending world champion Warriors are a disappointing 24-24. Golden State, though, is 18-6 at home. The Warriors will be highly motivated to defeat Toronto at home tonight. They still haven't forgotten the Raptors beating them to win the 2019 championship. 

Golden State also goes on the road for its next three games following this matchup. 

Toronto is 7-15 away from home. The Raptors are 6-14 ATS playing at Golden State. Toronto is fat and happy after an impressive, 113-95, win against the hot Kings this past Wednesday. 

The Raptors have won two straight. Only once this season have they posted three consecutive victories. 

New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. 

The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. 

Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. 

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana.

The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110.

Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot.

Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player.

The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

Center Rudy Gobert may be the best defensive front-court player in the NBA. His presence makes a difference. And he's back for Minnesota.

Given that plus the situation and the Pelicans ranking No. 1 in 3-point defensive field goal percentage, I'm going Under this total.

The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing 119-114 loss to the Rockets, who had lost 13 straight losses entering the matchup. Gobert returned after missing the previous three games due to a groin injury. He had 16 rebounds and four blocks. But the Timberwolves ran into a sizzling Jalen Green, who scored 42 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the floor. Minnesota coach Chris Finch ripped his team following the loss for their lack of focus.

The Pelicans showed a lot of defensive heart holding the Nuggets to a season-low 36 points in the second half last night. The Pelicans lost, 99-98, though, despite holding the Nuggets to 18 points under their season average. The Pelicans should be up for another strong defensive effort being home while not looking to push tempo playing without rest.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

I understand why this total is being bet up. Both teams are offensive-minded and haven't been playing very good defense. 

But there are situational elements that favor the Under. The Hawks are in action for the third time in four days. Their last game was a track meet against the Hornets. I don't expect a fast pace. The Bulls just returned from beating the Pistons in Paris this past Thursday. So they might not have their legs due to jet lag. 

These Eastern Conference teams know each other well. This is their third meeting of the season. There were 218 points scored when the Bulls won, 110-108, on Dec. 22 the last time they played. There were 220 points scored in regulation during the first meeting, which went into overtime. Now look where the total sits. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.

Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go.

Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover.

The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats.

There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues.

From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit.

Boston is hot, winners of nine in a row. The Celtics also are banged-up and in a flat spot. Boston has a bigger game on Tuesday playing the Heat in Miami.

The Celtics won't have Jayson Tatum today. They aren't likely to have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III either. Both were injured in the Celtics' 106-104 road victory at Toronto this past Saturday. That was a gutty win for the Celtics. Boston loses a lot of defense without Smart and Williams. 

The Magic should be motivated after giving up a season-high 138 points to the Wizards in a 20-point road loss to the Wizards two days ago. The Magic lacked energy in that game having beaten the Pelicans at home the night before. They should be far more physical in this matchup. 

Until that loss to the Wizards, the Magic were flying below the radar going 12-8 SU, 15-5 ATS pulling off straight-up underdog victories against the Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers. 

Kudos to the Suns for beating the Nets and Pacers during their last two games despite having multiple injuries to key players. However, I don't see the Suns winning a third straight game minus so many players against an angry Grizzlies squad.

Memphis had its 11-game win streak halted by the Lakers on Friday night, 122-121. The Grizzlies blew a 13-point second-half lead.

Until defeating the Pacers - who shot 37.5 percent from the floor against Phoenix and were missing their leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton - the Suns had lost nine of 10. The Suns are without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton - their three best players - along with Cam Johnson and guards Cam Payne and Landry Shamet.

The Grizzlies hosted the Suns three games ago and buried Phoenix, 136-106, six days ago.

I trust the Cowboys' offensive line to do their job against the 49ers. The buy sign also is back on for Dak Prescott, who is off his best game of the season. Prescott threw for 305 yards against a good Buccaneers defense last week, while accounting for five touchdowns.

Brock Prudy - Mr. Relevant - has proven himself with multiple TD passes in each of seven starts. He has a 16-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio in his starts. The 49ers have scored 33 or more points in six of their last seven games with Purdy behind center.

The Cowboys' defense has sprung leaks. During four of the last five regular-season games they surrendered 23 points to the Texans, 40 points to the Jaguars, 34 to the Eagles, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew, and 26 to the Commanders.

Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated.

The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600.

Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite.

Florida Atlantic is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78 points on the season. The Owls have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their last 32 road games.

UTEP also is a good shooting team. The Miners have broken 80 points in two of their last three games.

The Over has cashed 13 of the past 16 times following a UTEP victory. The Miners scored 81 points in a 20-point victory against Florida International in their last game.

The Raptors will be stressing defense after blowing an 18-point lead in a 128-126 loss to the Timberwolves this past Thursday. They catch Boston minus Jayson Tatum, who will sit out because of a sore wrist.

The Celtics rank in the top-seven in defensive efficiency since big man Robert Williams returned. The Celtics won't be playing fast after a tiring, 121-118, come-from-behind overtime win against the Warriors two days ago.

The Raptors play at a slow pace, too. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Raptors have hosted Boston.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

Healthy again at forward and center, Colorado is on a scoring spree. The Avalanche have racked up 17 goals in their last three games. 
Now the Avalanche draw Vancouver, which ranks second-to-last defensively and has the worst penalty kill unit in the league. 

The Canucks have given up three or more goals in nine of their last 10 games with the opponent reaching at least four goals in seven of those games. 

Vancouver is in desperation mode. The Canucks can't win defensively so they should be going all out to outscore their foes. They could draw Colorado without superstar defenseman Cale Makar. He missed Colorado's last game. 

The Avalanche has surrendered three or more goals in eight of their last 11 games.

The Under hasn't won during the last seven times the teams have met in Vancouver. 

The Pelicans should be highly motivated to beat the Magic after an embarrassing, 124-98, home loss to the Heat this past Wednesday. 

The 16-28 Magic are playing their first home game in more than two weeks after concluding a five-game road trip that finished this past Sunday with a 119-116 loss to the Nuggets. Being idle for five days is being off for too long. So I don't expect the Magic to be sharp. 

New Orleans is at its best against bad team teams. The Pelicans are 19-7-1 (73 percent) ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. They have covered the past five times against sub .500 opponents. 

The Pelicans are the superior team even without injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and this spot sets up well for them. 

The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. 

The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. 

Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. 

Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. 

Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here.

The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home.

Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring.

The Avalanche are still down defensemen Bowen Byram and Josh Manson. But their firepower has returned with superstars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar in top offensive form. The Avalanche have scored 13 goals during their last two games. They also have back from injury forward Valeri Nichushkin.

The Flames should be primed for a big effort returning home from five games on the road. They were highly frustrated in a 2-1 loss to the Predators on Monday. They also ran into star goalie Juuse Saros.

Even with that result, Calgary still has scored 3 or more goals in 11 of its last 13 games. The Over has cashed eight of the past 10 times the Flames have played on one day's rest.

Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother.

Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday.

Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday.

Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times.

The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance.

I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row.

Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain.

Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused.

The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games.

The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series.

It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall.

Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record.

Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits.

By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits.

Look for this pattern to continue here.

UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents.

The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly.

The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games.

Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games.

Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers.

Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games.

Aside from Cleveland being the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA giving up an average of 107 points a game, there are strong situational reasons why I like this game to go Under.

New Orleans is playing its fifth consecutive road game. It's the first and only time this season the Pelicans will be playing a fifth straight away game. Cleveland just concluded a five-game, 10-day road swing this past Saturday night. The Cavaliers had to go through three different time zones during this time.

On top of these fatigue factors is this is an early-start Martin Luther King Day matinee game. So I'm certainly not expecting either team to push pace.

The Pelicans are missing two of their three best offensive players with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out with injuries. The Pelicans have relied on 7-foot center Jonas Valanciunas to pick up the scoring. But Valanciunas is going to find it difficult against Cleveland's defensive-minded big men Eric Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Those two have been instrumental in Cleveland ranking No. 1 in defensive rebounding.

Donovan Mitchell easily paces the Cavaliers in scoring at 28.8 points per game. Mitchell, however, has been dealing with illness. He was just 5-for-16 shooting from the floor in the Cavaliers' 110-102 loss to the Timberwolves this past Saturday. The Pelicans are a middle-of-the-road defensive team. Their defensive strength is 3-point defense where they rank No. 2. So I'm not expecting Mitchell to go off. He missed seven of nine 3-point shots against Minnesota.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

The Vikings can be explosive because of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and they are at home. Brian Daboll is no dummy. He knows this. His Giants have the least postseason experience of any of the playoff teams.

So it's not hard to figure that Daboll is going conservative here. That means lots of running and short passes to Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones not taking chances.

The Giants are better on defense because they are healthier. They've held their last four opponents to 17.7 points. New York is familiar with Minnesota. The teams just met three weeks ago. It took a 61-yard field goal at the gun by Greg Joseph - an inconsistent kicker - for the Vikings to prevail, 27-24, in that home game.

New York didn't have its best safety, Xavier McKinney, nor its top cornerback, Adoree' Jackson, in that game. Both are expected to play here. The Vikings could be down two offensive line starters with center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Brian O'Neill both injured. Kirk Cousins has a history of not stepping up in big games. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux has shown signs lately of being an elite pass rusher.

The Vikings do not have good defensive numbers. However, they have a number of excellent defenders - Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Za'Darius Smith. Minnesota is good at takeaways ranking 12th in the league.

I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season.

Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

The Kings have won three in a row, averaging five goals a game during this span. They've been idle since Wednesday and won't play again for five more days. So LA should have its full focus to defeat the Devils, who beat the Ducks last night.

The Devils are 7 -20 the past 27 times they've played without rest. Even with that win against Anaheim, the Devils are 6-8-2 in their last 16 games.

Los Angeles has won seven of its last nine home games. The Kings also have defeated New Jersey in four of the last five meetings.

Saturday Free Play

Blackhawks plus $2.15 hosting Kraken 

The Kraken are only in their second year in the NHL. Yet they've already accomplished something that hasn't been done since 2015 - win the first six games of a road trip.

Seattle has just one game left on its seven-game, 12-day road swing: this one against the lowly Blackhawks.

The Kraken just upset the Bruins, 3-0, on Thursday thus dealing NHL-leading Boston its first regulation loss of the season at home. It probably was Seattle's finest game of the season.

It also puts the Kraken in a huge letdown spot. At more than 2-to-1 odds, I'll take a shot on the Blackhawks.

Chicago is tied with Columbus for the fewest points in the league. However, the Blackhawks are playing well on a three-game win streak. There's a strong chance the Blackhawks get Patrick Kane back. He's their second-leading points producer despite being out since Jan. 3 because of a lower-body injury.

The Kraken are anxious to come home. They host the Lightning on Monday. Seattle is 2-8 the past 10 times it has played in a four-game, six-day situation.

Two top-10 offenses facing two below average defenses. Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence. All of this had me strongly leaning to the Over. But what clinched the Over is finding out who is going to be refereeing this game. It's the Shawn Smith crew.

This is significant. This umpiring crew has ranked in the top-five for calling the most defensive penalties each of the last four seasons. They also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties this season.

Herbert should come up big against the Jaguars, who rank 28th in pass defense and 24th in defensive total yards.

Lawrence should perform well, too, operating against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 20th in total defense. The Jaguars put up 38 points on the Chargers in Week 3 with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

Look, I like the Grizzlies. But I don't like them enough to lay this many points in a flat spot against a good home team such as the Pacers.

The line is high - inflated in my view - because Indiana is without point guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner. There's a chance, though, the Pacers get back forward Aaron Nesmith, who has missed the last two games due to illness. I also like the Pacers' younger players, particularly Bennedict Mathurin. I believe they will step up given the opportunity.

The Grizzlies aren't 100 percent healthy either with Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke both questionable.

Memphis has won eight in a row. However, the Grizzlies' last five victories were against the Spurs twice, slumping Jazz, Magic and Hornets. Memphis has failed to cover its last three games and has a bigger game on deck at home in revenge mode against the Suns.

The Pacers are 15-8 at home, including 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven home contests. They are off a tough, 113-111, home loss last night to the Hawks, who scored the winning basket with less than a second left.

Indiana is 21-8 ATS when playing on zero rest. Memphis is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .500 home mark.

There weren't more than 34 points scored in either of the Seahawks-49ers regular season games this season. I don't see that pattern changing here.

San Francisco's No. 1 ranked defense, the weather and a run-oriented conservative approach by the 49ers behind rookie QB Brock Purdy are all key factors for the Under.

Discounting a 37-34 game against the Raiders, the 49ers have held their past nine opponents to an average of 12.2 points. San Francisco surrendered the fewest yards and points in the NFL.

There is a 90 percent chance of rain, potentially heavy, with wind in the 15-20 mph range. This is on a grass field so the footing is going to be slow.

Expect the 49ers to run a lot especially under these circumstances.

The Seahawks have regressed offensively, but gotten better defensively. Seattle is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games, while giving up an average of 16.7 points during this span.

Geno Smith has never been effective against elite defenses. He had just one touchdown pass in two games against San Francisco, averaging 217.5 yards passing. The 49ers tied for the lead in interceptions and had the second-most takeaways.

This is only the third time the Kings are laying more than 9 points. They are 0-2 ATS the previous two times. 

The Rockets are a bottom feeder, but they shouldn't lack motivation in a rapid revenge spot. The Kings beat Houston, 135-115, two days ago at home. That score was misleading, though. The Rockets led with 8:44 to go before the Kings scored 26 of the final 37 points. The Kings were aided by getting 14 more free throw attempts than the Rockets.

Houston lost point guard Kevin Porter Jr. just 10 minutes into the game with a bruised foot. It's a plus if he can play today. If not, the Rockets won't go in unprepared to not having him. 

Sacramento has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. 

This is my Game of the Week.

The Pistons are off a 135-118 win against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Detroit hasn't won consecutive games since Nov. 22-23. I don't see the Pistons doing that here.

Each of the Pistons' last nine losses were by double-digits. 

New Orleans is 7-5 in its last 12 games. However, all five of the losses during this span were to good teams. 

The Pelicans are several tiers better than the Pistons, which makes this point spread too small. Yes, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans. However, the Pistons also have injuries and their rotation isn't as talented as New Orleans is. Detroit has been without frontcourt players Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. 

This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip.

USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California.

This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team.

SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Thunder have been double-digit underdogs four times this season - and covered each time Oklahoma City has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 25-16 for 61 percent.

Oklahoma City has short revenge for a 115-96 home loss suffered to the 76ers on New Year's Eve.

The Thunder have thrived in these spots going 19-8 in their last 27 (70 percent) away games when taking on an opponent with a winning home record.

The 76ers are a bit fat and happy off consecutive easy victories against the Pistons. The Thunder are off a frustrating, 112-111, road loss to the Heat from Tuesday. Miami won by making all 40 of its free throws. It was the third straight game the Thunder have covered and fourth in their last five.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are playing at high levels. They can keep the Thunder in this game.

I'm going to fade the injury-ravaged Suns following their huge upset win against the Warriors last night at Golden State. 

Phoenix stunned the Warriors despite missing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Cam Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. Before that game, the Suns had lost nine of 10, including six in a row. 

The Nuggets are rolling, winning their last three games by an average of 19 points with all three victories coming by at least 13 points. 

Denver has held its last three foes to an average of 102.6 points. 

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. 

Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. 

The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense.

This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times.

Crunching numbers on this one and find this total to be too high.

If you discount its last game against Tulane, Tulsa would be averaging 63.6 points in its last 10 games. 

Temple is averaging 64.1 points in its last six games taking out its game against Maryland Eastern Shore. 

The Over is 5-1-1 in Tulsa's last seven home games. Temple has been a big Under team on the road with the low side cashing 68 percent of the time during its past 68 away contests. 

The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. 

There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent.  

This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. 

The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. 

Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. 

Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time.

TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs?

Yes, they are.

Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs.

The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage.

Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game.

The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here.

The Knicks are fat and happy, winners of four in a row. Note that two of those four victories were achieved against bottom-feeders San Antonio and Houston.

New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

The Bucks have had all weekend to reflect about a shocking, 138-109, home loss to the lowly Hornets this past Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo was held to a season-low nine points.

I see Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee bouncing back here. The Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in their six visits to Madison Square Garden.

This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row.

South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points.

I see a shootout coming here. It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Packers finally have their offensive identity. Green Bay has one of the best running back tandems with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and Aaron Rodgers has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. The bar is set low here as the Lions have a bottom-four defense. 

The Packers also finally have a special teams threat thanks to Keisean Nixon, who leads the NFL in kickoff return yardage and kickoff return average. 

The Lions have a top-five offense. They've scored at least 25 points in six of their last eight games. The Packers' defense has been thriving not because they are dominant, but because of forcing 12 turnovers during their last four games. Detroit, though, commits the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Jared Goff, who quietly has put together a very good season with 4,214 passing yards and 29 TD passes, hasn't been picked off in his last eight games. 

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being clear with the temperature around 20 and the wind at 5-to-10 mph.  

I respect the Grizzlies and they are hot with five straight wins. Utah is off a disappointing road loss to the Bulls last night.

However, I see this as too many points for the Grizzlies to be laying. They were on the road for their last two games, having last played this past Thursday. I question their motivation and concentration being fat and happy right now.

Utah is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Jazz, though, haven't lost any of those six games by more than eight points. They are 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600.

Utah also is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games against the Grizzlies, including winning and covering both matchups earlier this season. Those games were back in October so this isn't a huge revenge spot for Memphis.

The 2022 Broncos were a disaster under overmatched first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. But the 2023 Broncos under Jerry Rosburg are much more professional, helped by Russell Wilson finally playing better. Denver would very much like to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in the 62-year-old history of the team.

The Broncos can accomplish that by beating the Chargers.

If the Bengals defeat the Ravens - and they currently are 9 1/2-point home favorites to do so - the Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs rendering this matchup meaningless. The Chargers would know that result since this game goes later in the day while the Ravens-Bengals is an early game.

This is what Chargers coach Brandon Staley said about that scenario, '' Once we find out about that game, we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward ...''

The Chargers signalled their intent not to risk injury to any key starters last week pulling out starters early in the fourth quarter during their 31-10 win against the Rams.

So there's a very good chance that journeyman backup quarterback Chase Daniel could play far more than Justin Herbert.

Even if the Chargers play their starters, I still like the Broncos based on Wilson performing better, being at home and having the superior defense. The Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting the Chargers.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

Nathan Peterman. Need I say more? OK, I will. The Bears have lost nine in a row, most in franchise history. Their defense has fallen apart, done in by injuries and trades to the tune of surrendering 34 points a game during their nine-game losing skid.

There's more. The Bears could clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a victory by the Texans against the Colts.

The Vikings are in the playoffs, but they still have incentive. They have a shot at the No. 2 slot. They also want to erase the stench of a 41-17 road loss to the Packers last week. Minnesota hasn't lost two games in a row all season.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said he would go with his starters against the Bears.

That's not the case with Chicago. Justin Fields is being held out so Peterman gets the start. I regard him as one of the worst reserve quarterbacks of all-time. Somehow Peterman has lasted five years in the NFL. He's played in 12 games, completed 52.5 percent with a puny 4.2 yards per pass and a 3-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's a threat to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass.

Minnesota has beaten Chicago during the past three meetings winning by seven or more points each time.

I don't see the justification in the Falcons being favored here. Yes, the 8-8 Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South Division. But they want very much to finish above .500 and build positive momentum for the playoffs. Todd Bowles knows his team has to be sharp. That's why he said he will be playing his starters, including Tom Brady.

Brady is coming off his best game throwing for 432 yards and three TD's against the Panthers, who have a better defense than the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 29th defensively in total yards and 26th in pass defense.

The Falcons aren't very good on offense either. They are averaging 15.2 points in their last five games. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 20 points in seven of its last eight games. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is set to make his fourth NFL start. He's yet to throw a TD pass. He's facing a top-eight defense in the Buccaneers, who also are tough to run against.

Tampa Bay has won the last five games in the series.

I'm not sold on the untested Jaguars coming through in big games. Tennessee has that big-game experience. Jacksonville doesn't.

The Titans have been in free-fall with six straight losses. They still can win the AFC South, though, with a victory here. The Titans have been decimated with injuries. But they are getting some key players back, including a rested Derrick Henry and two of their best defenders, lineman Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, their top pass rusher.

Tennessee found out the hard way that rookie Malik Willis is not a skilled enough passer. So the Titans are giving Joshua Dobbs a second consecutive start. He makes better decisions than Willis, provides the Titans with at least the threat of a downfield passing game and has Henry to rely upon. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense.

Henry has a strong history against Jacksonville with two 200-yard rushing games and three 100-yard rushing games.

The Titans also have an underrated weapon - punter Ryan Stonehouse. He's averaging 53 yards per punt. The NFL record is 51.4 yards set by Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1940.

Tennessee has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Jacksonville going 8-3 ATS. The Titans have covered in four of their last five visits to Jacksonville.

Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid.

The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday.

Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them.

The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points.

Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days.

The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense.

California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. 

But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. 

The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going.

Kudos to the Pistons for upsetting the Warriors, 122-119, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Saddiq Bey on Wednesday. I don't see the Pistons following that big win with another victory, though. Only once all season have the Pistons won consecutive games and that was back on Nov. 22-23. 

This marks Detroit's fifth road game in eight days. 

The Spurs return home after losing, 117-114, to the Knicks two days ago at Madison Square Garden. The Spurs are 2-1 in their last three home games beating the Jazz and Knicks while losing to the Mavericks by one point.

The Pistons have failed to cover during their last four visits to San Antonio. 

This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. 

Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. 

This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. 

It's easy to think offense about the Memphis Grizzlies because of star guard Ja Morant. But the Grizzlies are a strong defensive team. They give up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA and rank first in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis has gone Under in seven of its last eight games.

The Grizzlies have allowed just 105.5 points per game during their last four games.

Orlando ranks 27th in scoring. The Magic have had their rotation messed up, too, in their last couple of games because of multiple suspensions stemming from an altercation against the Pistons last Thursday.

Both teams played and won last night with the Grizzlies burying the Hornets by 24 points on the road and the Magic defeating the Thunder by 11 as a one-point home 'dog. So I'm not expecting a fast tempo. The Magic are below average in terms of pace.

The Magic are the best defensive team the Grizzlies have faced during their past couple games. Memphis is off games against the Kings, who rank 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and Hornets, who rank 28th in scoring defense.

Orlando relies heavily on Paolo Banchero, its leading scorer. The Grizzlies have a number of good defenders - Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams - who can bother Banchero.

The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. 

The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. 
Sacramento's concentration may be off along with a letdown factor following last night's narrow victory. The Kings haven't been home since Dec. 30. This marks their third game in four days and they are coming from Utah's high altitude. It's also the Kings' sixth game in nine days so there is a fatigue factor against them. 

The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. 

The Stars won't be taking the Ducks lightly after their four-game win streak was snapped by the Kings last night.

Dallas is the third-highest scoring team in the NHL, while the Ducks are historically bad defensively.

The Stars own huge special teams edges with the second-best power play and fourth-best penalty kill units in the NHL. Anaheim, by contrast, ranks second-worst on the power play and third-worst in killing penalties.

The Ducks have lost by more than one goal during eight of their past nine defeats.