Toronto needs to be careful here. The Raptors are fat and happy having just concluded a 4-0 homestand with the last two games being a blowout of the Timberwolves and a huge overtime win against the Celtics.

Now the Raptors take to the road to face the lowly Magic. The last time the Raptors were on the road they lost by 14 points to the Bulls on March 21.

Orlando has covered six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog. Toronto is 4-10 ATS the past 14 times playing below .400 opponents.

Both meetings this season have been close. The Raptors edged the Magic, 110-109, back in late October and Orlando defeated the Raptors, 103-97, on March 4.

Paul George played for the first time in three-plus months against the Jazz this past Tuesday helping the Clippers defeat Utah. LA rallied from 25 points to win, 121-115. George looked great in scoring 34 points in 31 minutes.

Three things about that, though.

The game was played in LA. The Clippers had lost five in a row before that victory and George still may not have his full conditioning.

The Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games, 2-4 ATS, with their lone victory during this span coming against the lowly Pistons by four points. The Clippers lost by 12 points to the Nuggets and by 29 to the Jazz during their past two away contests.

If George isn't at peak efficiency - and it's hard to imagine he would be playing in just his second game back - the Bulls would have the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic.

Chicago is 26-10 at home. The Bulls are 23-7 ATS the past 30 times as a home favorite. They beat the Raptors by 14 points and Cavaliers by 10 during their last two home contests.

The Clippers are 16-23 on the road. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an above .500 team.

I fully expect each of these teams to register at least three goals. Las Vegas has scored 5 or more goals in four of its last six games, including producing 11 goals the past two games. Seattle ranks 27th defensively and 29th in penalty kill. 

The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. 

So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. 

Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. 

Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. 

Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage.

This is the third meeting between the two teams this season. There were 179 points scored the first time and 189 points scored during the second matchup.

I don't expect many points either this time around with each team devoid of their best scorers.

Oklahoma City has been missing its leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He could be shut down for the season due to an ankle injury.

Portland is down its top three scorers with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusef Nurikic all out. The Trail Blazers just lost forward Trendon Watford to a knee injury this past Friday. Watford had been averaging 15.4 points this month.

The Trail Blazers are averaging only 100 points during their last three games.

This handicap is simple. The Hornets are playing well and have been huge money-makers on the road.

The Nets are off a big Saturday night road victory against the Heat. They are at their point spread worst as a home favorite.

Charlotte is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Among the Hornets' victories during this span are wins against the Jazz, Mavericks and Hawks. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road contests.

Brooklyn has performed much better away from home. The Nets are 16-19 at home. The Hornets have a better road mark at 18-18 than Brooklyn does at home. 
The Nets are dreadful as home favorites failing to cover 22 of the past 27 times (18 percent). 

Arizona has given up 3 or more goals in each of its last eight games. The Coyotes have permitted 4 goals in each of their last four games. I don't see their defense getting turned around on the road against the Jets.

Winnipeg has produced 4 or more goals in five of its last seven games.

Discounting a 4-0 shutout of Las Vegas, the Jets have given up an average of four goals during their last four games. They have surrendered at least 3 goals in 19 of their last 21 games. So the Coyotes should be in line, too, to help this total get Over.

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

I don't usually back the Magic in a favorite's role, but this spot and situation set up well for Orlando.

The Kings are off a dramatic road victory against the Pacers, 110-109, on a last-second put-back basket. 

Despite that win, Sacramento is 4-12 in its last 16 games. The Kings are without their two best players as both De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are injured. 

The Magic had been playing well with consecutive home victories against the Thunder and Warriors before getting crushed, 118-102, on the road against Oklahoma City three days ago. Orlando was minus its leading rebounder and third-leading scorer, Wendell Carter Jr., in that game. There's a good chance Carter plays here. But even if he doesn't I like Orlando to defeat Sacramento.  

I'm not falling for North Carolina's status as a No. 8 seed. That low seed has turned out to be a joke with the way the Tar Heels have played. The key is can North Carolina sustain its high level? I don't see that.

Now that Jaime Jaquez has been declared fit to play Friday after suffering an ankle injury, I'm going with the Bruins. UCLA has the deep NCAA Tourney experience, roster depth and ability to limit turnovers that can hurt North Carolina. I see the Bruins controlling tempo, which is huge.

The Bruins lost in overtime to Gonzaga in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Bruins' key players from that game are all back.

Jaquez has been playing his best ball down the stretch averaging 21 points during his last seven games.

The Bruins are 7-1 ATS during their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

This is my NBA March Game of the Month.

The 31-42 Knicks are back to being a bottom-feeder this season. The only way they can win is to catch an opponent in a letdown spot. That's what the Knicks did on Wednesday upsetting the Hornets. 

Arizona has looked less than stellar in beating Wright State and gritty TCU in overtime during its first two NCAA Tournament games. That's putting it kindly. The Wildcats made only five of 27 3-point shots against the Horned Frogs.

But the Wildcats survived. Now, four days after getting past TCU, I see a regrouped Arizona playing much better. Arizona can beat any team in the nation if it plays its ''A'' game. The Wildcats are due for that.

Arizona ranks No. 3 in the nation in points per game at 84.7 and is fifth in field goal percentage. The Wildcats have the second-tallest frontcourt in the country. Houston isn't nearly that explosive, nor has the height and overall wingspan to defeat the Wildcats. The Cougars also have a severe weakness - free throw shooting. They rank 334th in free throw accuracy at 66.3 percent.

Not to take anything away from Houston's impressive 68-53 second-round tournament victory against Illinois, but several things need to be pointed out. The Big Ten Conference did indeed turn out to be vastly overrated. Only Purdue and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were successful in beating the Illini because they could get away with double and triple-teaming Illinois superstar big man Kofi Cockburn.

That strategy won't work against Arizona because the Wildcats have several excellent big men plus a better perimeter game. Houston hasn't encountered a guard the likes of Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin.

This is the spot where Arizona steps up and proves just how good it is.

You can't blame the Grizzlies for being fat and happy. They've won six of their last seven and just defeated the Nets, 132-120, without their best player, Ja Morant, last night.

You can't blame the Grizzlies either if they are overconfident for this game against the 25-48 Pacers. The teams just met nine days ago and the Grizzlies buried the Pacers, 135-102, shooting 51 percent from the floor.

Memphis was a 6 1/2-point road favorite in that game. Now the line is nearly doubled. I don't believe that is justified.

The Pacers not only have short revenge, but they should be fired up after having their two-game win streak end in heartbreaking fashion with a one-point home loss to the Kings last night. The Kings pulled the game out on a tip-in with less than one second left.

Indiana is 15-5 ATS the past 20 times when playing on zero rest. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS following a double-digit victory and probably will be missing Morant again. Memphis also has a far bigger matchup on deck hosting the Bucks Saturday.

These two teams just met two weeks ago in Chicago. There were 11 goals scored in the Blackhawks' 8-3 victory. This should be another loosely played game with both teams in full rebuild mode. The Blackhawks have permitted 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 12 games. They rank 25th defensively. Anaheim has scored three goals a game in three of its last four games. The Ducks, devoid of healthy defensemen, have surrendered an average of 4.1 goals in their last seven games.

Revenge and a great situation line up well for Oklahoma City.

Just three days ago, Orlando beat the Thunder, 90-85, at home. The Thunder hung in despite shooting just 33 percent from the floor, getting six fewer free throws than Orlando while missing star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Now the Thunder get the Magic at home in this short revenge spot. The Magic are in a rare and monster letdown spot having upset the Warriors, 94-90, Tuesday night at home.

Orlando has lost 27 of its 37 road games this season. The Magic are 1-6 ATS the last seven times facing Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are 28-14-4 ATS (67%) in their last 46 games all as an underdog. The Thunder also is 22-9-1 (71%) the past 32 times when going against a sub .500 opponent.

The won/lost record shows the Pistons losing six of their last seven games. A betting reality, though, is the Pistons have been one of the hottest point spread teams covering 13 of their last 16 games, including going 5-1 ATS as a home 'dog.

One of Detroit's rare non-covers during this time frame occurred in its last game, an embarrassing, 119-115, loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago to open their homestand. Star rookie Cade Cunningham committed a season-high nine turnovers in that loss. Cunningham and his young teammates should be motivated following that bad performance against Portland. They draw the Hawks at an opportune time.

Atlanta is off a highly-satisfying, emotional, 117-111, win against the Knicks last night. This was at Madison Square Garden. The setting and mood was playoff-like.

Here's the reality about the Hawks, though. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times as favorites. They were 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS during their last six road contests prior to defeating the Knicks.

Oh, yes, Atlanta is 1-11 ATS following a victory. The Hawks also carry a fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days.

It's not a fluke the Timberwolves are 42-30. They are a much improved team with a lot of young talent.

But I want the Mavericks going for me in this matchup.

Dallas is trying to prevent its first three-game losing streak in more than three months following consecutive losses to the 76ers and Hornets. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS following a loss. 

Minnesota is off a huge 138-119 home victory against the defending world champion Bucks. 

The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks in the first meeting this season, 111-105, at home on Dec. 19. The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves, 114-102, in Dallas two days later. It was the eighth time in their last 11 visits to Dallas that the Timberwolves failed to cover.

Dallas is 23-12 at home this season. The Timberwolves are 18-18 on the road. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been a road 'dog. 

The Timberwolves will host the Mavericks on Friday. Dallas has the history, motivation and situation to hold court today by covering this small number. 

The Rockets are 3-22 in their last 25 games and showing no interest in playing defense. Houston has allowed an average of 120.3 points in regulation during its last 10 games. Washington is the sixth-most accurate field goal shooting team in the NBA. The Rockets rank last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

I don't expect the Rockets to suddenly get intense on defense after giving up 122 points to the Grizzlies in a 24-point loss on Sunday. The Over is 16-5 the past 21 times the Rockets have played on zero rest.

The Wizards are 1-6 in their last seven games. They aren't playing defense either. Washington has given up an average of 122 points in its last eight games discounting a 100-97 loss to the Knicks. The Over has cashed in nine of the Wizards' last 10 games. 

I'm surprised this line is where it is. My power ratings have Northern Colorado as the much better team. So I'll be on the Bears in this CBI Tournament quarterback matchup.

Northern Colorado averages 78.7 points a game, which ranks 27th in the country. The Bears are the 11th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the nation. Asheville is strong defensively against the 3-pointer, but its offense can't match the Bears and it gives up a lot of two-pointers. 

Senior guard Daylen Kountz is the best player on the court giving Northern Colorado that edge. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

The Celtics are playing well. But so has Denver, which has won 14 of its last 19 games. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS the past five times they've been underdogs. I don't believe they should be a home 'dog here.

The Nuggets have the best player on the court, Nikola Jokic, and should be the hungrier team following an overtime road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. Denver also has revenge for a 108-102 road loss to the Celtics on Feb. 11. The Nuggets shot 11 of 44 (25 percent) from 3-point range in that loss.

Denver has bolstered its rotation with DeMarcus Cousins and Bryn Forbes.

Boston is a bit fat and happy with consecutive road victories against the Warriors and Kings. 

It's a big drop from just missing out on going to the NCAA Tournament to participating in the College Basketball Tournament. 

I don't think UNC Wilmington is too excited playing in this tourney after coming within one win of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks fell to Delaware, 59-55, in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament title game. 

The Keydets rank 19th in the country in scoring at 79.5 points. That's more than eight points per game than what Wilmington averages. 

VMI is strong in the middle with center Jake Stephens and has a dangerous 3-point shooter in Kamdyn Curfman. The Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games.

Wilmington is ranked 177th in the much-respected Ken Pomeroy's ratings. VMI is rated 159th, according to Pomeroy. 

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

Never mind that Providence won the Big East regular season title. The Friars were a popular fade against South Dakota State in their opening NCAA Tournament game on Thursday. Final score: Providence 66, South Dakota State 57. 

Early money has come against the Friars again in this matchup. Richmond is drawing support after the Spiders stunned Iowa, 67-63, as a 9 1/2-point 'dog on Thursday. 
This is the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond can't help but feel fat and happy after that tremendous upset. Teams that have pulled a first-round NCAA Tourney upset as a double-digit 'dog have covered just 24 percent of the time during the past 29 instances. 

Providence is better than it profiles. The Friars are so disrespected that there is now value to them.

Western Illinois averages 79 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Leathernecks, though, give up 77 points a game and are in the bottom-five in 3-point defense. UTEP is a 3-point shooting team and also an excellent free throw shooting squad. Western Illinois has allowed 80 or more points in seven of its last 10 games.

The Miners are not a big scoring team like Western Illinois, but their style should work well against the Leathernecks. UTEP likes to press leading to baskets in transition. This aggressive style should produce both steals and fouls. It helps the Over that the Miners have increased their tempo from the start of the season.

I want defending national champion Baylor going for me and the point spread is reasonable enough to back the Bears. Baylor has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, covering the spread in its past six. 

This game is being played in Fort Worth, Texas so Baylor has a home state advantage. Both teams have short rotations usually using just seven players. The Bears are off a 85-49 blowout victory against Norfolk State on Thursday and had less traveling than North Carolina. 

The Bears give up nine fewer points per game than North Carolina. They rank 12th in the nation in 3-point defense compared to the Tar Heels placing 256th in that category. 

It's worth noting that streak shooter Matthew Mayer scored a career-high 22 points against Norfolk State hitting 8 of 12 shots from the floor and 4 of 7 3-pointers. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover the past six times they've been an NCAA Tourney underdog. 

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

The Avalanche has been getting outstanding goaltending in giving up just two goals in their last three games. The Sharks are 28th in scoring and 30th in shooting percentage and expected goals per game during the last 25 games.

Colorado remains without its leading goal scorer, injured Gabriel Landeskog. That's a factor why the Avalanche is averaging just 2.2 goals during their last four games. The Sharks have the second-best penalty kill unit in the league. The Sharks haven't given up more than 3 goals during any of their last five games.

I don't like nor trust TCU's offense against Seton Hall's defense, which ranks 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 249th in scoring at 68.4 points per game. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Seton Hall has won eight of its last 10 games. I like the Pirates' backcourt of Jared Rhoden and point guard Kadary Richmond, who is past his thumb injury. I see them carrying the Pirates to victory.

Mike Kryzewski was not pleased at all with Duke's defense in its last game, an 82-67 loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC conference title game this past Saturday. That was 16 points more per game than the Blue Devils' defensive season average of 66 points.

Look for Duke to tighten its defense. Cal State-Fullerton is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation ranking 307th. The Titans haven't shown they can produce big points when stepping up in class. They managed 66 points against Wyoming and 56 versus San Diego State.

The Titans have looked good defensively, though, holding their last four opponents to an average of 57.7 points a game. Duke isn't playing as fast tempo-wise as it did earlier in the season.

I suspected the Big Ten to be overrated with overinflated lines in this NCAA Tournament. Judging by Thursday's results that perception could be true. Iowa was upset by Richmond and Indiana was blown out by St. Mary's. That's a danger sign for Illinois, which was upset by the Hooisers in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals.

There's also recent history. The Illini were a No. 1 seed last season in the NCAA Tourney and lost to Loyola of Chicago in the second round as a seven-point favorite.

Illinois is just 4-3 in its last seven games with none of its victories during this time frame coming by more than eight points.

Tennessee Chattanooga is a dangerous opponent for Illinois because the Mocs can keep Kofi Cockburn from dominating the paint with 6-foot-10 Avery Diggs and 6-9 Silvio De Sousa. They also have a dominant scorer in guard Malachi Smith, who averages 20.1 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor.

The Mocs are 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times as an underdog.

I'm going to ride Murray State here. The Racers have won 20 in a row. They last tasted defeat back on Dec. 22 against Auburn, which had been the No. 1 ranked team in the country for a while.

I don't think it's asking too much of Murray State to beat San Francisco, the fourth-best team in the West Coast Conference. I respect the WCC, but I also think Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference is underrated.

San Francisco could be dealing with a case of nerves having not participated in the NCAA Tournament in 24 years. The Dons are guard-oriented with one good big man, center Yauhen Massalski. However, Massalski is dealing with a knee injury sustained 12 days ago. It caused him to miss the Dons' last game. He'll likely play here but his mobility could be affected.

This is a rarity - laying points with the Magic. But I see Orlando having some intensity at home after giving up 150 points at home in a 42-point loss to the Nets at home two days ago. They couldn't handle Kyrie Irving. 

Longwood has scored 79 points in each of its last three games. The Lancers are an offensive-minded team that ranks 34th in 3-point shooting accuracy.

Tennessee is a good 3-point shooting team, too. The Volunteers' outside shooting should open up their inside game. Longwood ranks second-to-last in the tournament in two point field goal defense.

Despite playing in the rugged SEC, the Volunteers still scored at least 72 points in nine of their last 13 games. Now they're stepping down in defensive class.

Kudos to the Raptors on their four-game win streak, all of which have come on the road against the Spurs, Suns, Nuggets and Lakers. It's extremely tough to win five consecutive away games in the NBA. The Raptors are going to draw an aroused Clippers team tonight. Toronto is dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fourth time in six days.

The Clippers are off a 120-111 overtime road loss to the Cavaliers. LA came back from a nine-point deficit with 6:14 left in that game before falling in overtime. Neither Reggie Jackson nor Marcus Morris played in Monday's loss to the Cavaliers. They were rested in anticipation of this matchup.

This is the Clippers' lone home game in a six-game span. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times as a home underdog.

Both offenses in this Basketball Classic tournament matchup are better than the respective defenses.

Morgan State ranks 63rd in the nation in scoring at 75.7 points. Only 13 teams play at a faster pace than the Bears. Morgan State is weak on defense ranking 264th.

Youngstown ranks 137th offensively averaging 72.8 points. The Penguins should score more than their season average playing at home against such a weak defense. The Over has cashed in six of their last seven home games.

The Penguins, however, rank 193rd in scoring defense, 206th in defensive field goal percentage and 247th in 3-point defense.

Both teams are well above average in second chance scoring percentage.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Wyoming is 25-8 finishing fourth in a very tough Mountain West Conference this season. The Cowboys have a tremendous pair in center Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming is 11-4 the past 15 times as an underdog. Indiana had a very strong Big Ten Tournament covering all three of its games posting upset wins against Michigan and Illinois before falling by three points to Iowa as a 5 1/2-point 'dog.  Perhaps the Hooisers peaked in the tournament as they were 2-7 during their past nine regular season games. Indiana is a very poor free throw shooting team and I don't trust its offense. Wyoming outscored Indiana by nearly three points per game. The Cowboys also have the better 3-point defense. 

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

Vanderbilt had an impressive SEC Tournament knocking off Georgia and Alabama before falling to Kentucky by six points while covering as 11-point underdogs. That helped earn Vanderbilt its first postseason invitation in five years. Vanderbilt is 15-15, which is a nice improvement on last season's nine win team.

But I'm not sure how motivated the Commodores will be now in this first round NIT matchup. Belmont should be fired-up, though. The Bruins also are located in Nashville and would like nothing more than to upset their neighborhood rival. 

Belmont has excelled when getting points covering 12 of the last 16 times it has been a 'dog. The Bruins, unlike Vanderbilt, also have NIT experience having competed five times in the tournament during the past six years. 

Don't get dazzled by superstars Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Defense is going to dominate this matchup.

Both teams rank in the top 12 defensively and each team is half-court oriented rather than fast-paced.

The Under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the Nuggets and 76ers.

The Nuggets are averaging 107.6 points in their last three games. This is their first East Coast game in more than a month so the time difference could throw off their shooting.

If you discount a 121-point game against the Bulls, a below average defensive team, the 76ers are averaging 95.3 points in regulation during their last three games.

I find this total to be short. Iowa was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation during the regular season. The Hawkeyes have been even better during the Big Ten Conference Tournament averaging 92 points in games against Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana. Iowa is shooting 51 percent from the floor during the tournament and 48 percent from 3-point range. Keegan Murray is living up to his superstar billing averaging 28 points in the tourney. 

Purdue was the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 80.7 points. The Boilermakers ranked third in the nation in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are stepping down in defensive class going against Iowa after having faced Michigan State and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have surrendered an average of 75.2 points in their last four games. 

An early start and no Kyrie Irving make the Under an attractive play here.

The Nets are averaging 103.2 points in their last four home games, all of which came without Irving. The Knicks' defense is down this season, but it still ranks in the top 10.

The teams have met twice this season and both games went Under this total with the latest being the Nets' 111-106 road win against the Knicks on Feb. 16.

You have to go back to late December/early January to find the last time the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning lost three in a row.
Tampa Bay is in that rare stop-the-pain mode after losing to the Jets this past Tuesday and to the Flames this past Thursday. 

I fully expect the Lightning to take care of business and right their ship against the Oilers. Edmonton is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Oilers are lucky to not be 2-7 after giving up a tying goal to the Capitals in their last game this past Wednesday with less than one second left. Edmonton managed to prevail in overtime. 

The Lightning rank seventh in scoring. The Oilers are a below average defensive team with mediocre goalies. Tampa Bay has won the past five meetings in the series. 

Regular season Pac-12 champion and No. 2 ranked Arizona committed 17 turnovers against Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes were sizzling from 3-point range hitting 16 of their 32 shots from beyond the arc for 50 percent.

Yet not only did Arizona win, but the Wildcats also covered the spread in an 82-72 victory.

I have to believe the Wildcats will play a cleaner and much better game against UCLA. The Bruins are off a highly satisfying and emotional Pac-12 semifinal victory against USC last night.

The Bruins are searching for their first Pac-12 tournament title in eight years.

I respect UCLA's defense. But I favor Arizona's scoring more. Only two teams score more than Arizona's 84.7 points per game.

Can you say letdown? That's what the Spurs have to avoid after they upset the Jazz at home last night, 104-102. As an added bonus, the victory gave Gregg Popovich the most regular season coaching wins in NBA history. All in all, a tremendous night in San Antonio basketball history.

I understand the oddsmaker making St. Peter's the favorite against Monmouth in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament title game. The Peacocks won both regular-season meetings, although the games were close. St. Peter's combined winning margin in the two games was 10 points.

But I consider these two teams even. Monmouth has more victories with a season record of 21-12 compared to St. Peter's 18-11.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup played in spacious Boardwalk Hall. The Hawks have covered the past seven times they've been underdogs and are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times going against above .500 teams.

Simply put, the Lakers can't be laying a mid-range number like this.

LA is 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games. The Lakers have been favored four times during this span - and lost each game straight-up.

Even LeBron James admitted the Lakers, ''...don't have a lot of room for error.''

The retooled Wizards, with newcomer Kristaps Porzingis upgrading their frontcourt, have been a competitive 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS record in their last seven games. One of those point spread losses occurring in double overtime to the Spurs.

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

I turn to the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament to find a perplexing line on this matchup between North Central and Coppin State.

North Central is the clear better team. But the line doesn't show that. The Eagles are 16-14. They beat Coppin State, 77-74, in mid-February.

Coppin State is 8-22. Coppin State ranks 281st in scoring, averaging five points fewer per game than North Central.

I want the Mavericks in this spot and am willing to lay double-digits to back them here.

Dallas had its five-game win streak come to a rough end with a 107-77 loss at home to the Knicks two days ago. The Rockets, on the other hand, are off a highly-satisfying 139-130 overtime home win against the Lakers from Wednesday.

The Mavericks are 23-9 ATS following a defeat. They are 2-0 versus the Rockets this season and 4-1 ATS during their past five visits to Houston.

The Rockets not only have the second-worst record in the NBA, but they also have a terrible point spread mark just 11-27 the past 38 times as an underdog.

Boston playing well. But so is Detroit except the Pistons don't get nearly the attention the Celtics do.

The Celtics are looking for their sixth consecutive victory. The Pistons are looking for their 10th straight point spread cover.

Cade Cunningham is making a spirited bid to earn Rookie of the Year honors scoring 20 or more points in his last five games.

The Pistons upset the Celtics, 112-111, at Boston on Feb. 16 as 12-point 'dogs. Now the line is even higher. That was the seventh straight time Detroit has covered against Boston.

The Celtics host the Mavericks on Sunday in a much more challenging game. So a Boston letdown/look ahead situation could exist. Even if the Celtics take this matchup seriously, the Pistons are playing well enough and the line is inflated enough to back Detroit.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

Iowa is peaking at the right time. The Hawkeyes have won and covered six of their last seven games with the only blemish being a two-point road loss to Illinois. Iowa just blew out Northwestern, 112-76, on Thursday.

The Hawkeyes entered the Big Ten Conference Tournament as the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.3 points. That's 16 points more per game than Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights average 67 points. That average shrinks to 62 if you count just their last four games.

This is a big revenge spot for Iowa. The Scarlet Knights held them to a season-low when they beat Iowa, 48-46, at home on Jan. 19.

This has been a down year for Utah State. I don't see the Aggies pulling off an upset against Colorado State in this Mountain West Conference Tournament game.

Utah State blew out a bad Air Force team on Wednesday to open tournament play. Prior to that, however, the Aggies had dropped five of their last seven regular season games.

This is in direct contrast to Colorado State, which enters the tournament having won eight of its last nine games. The Rams' last three games were victories against Boise State, which finished one game ahead of Colorado State to capture the regular season title, Utah State by 11 points on the road and Wyoming, the fourth-place team in the conference. 

Earlier this season, the Rams defeated the Aggies by five points. 

The Rams are led by David Roddy, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. 

Joel Embiid and James Harden trump Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. That's especially so in this emotional home game for the 76ers.

Philadelphia is 5-0 in games Harden and Embiid have played together. The 76ers have won four of those five games by 15 or more points with the latest being a 121-106 home victory against the Bulls this past Monday.

Harden opens up the 76ers' offense. Embiid is now the favorite to win MVP honors with Harden on board.

Brooklyn hasn't been playing well with six losses in its last eight games. Perhaps the Nets will get it together and make a move with Durant back. But it hasn't happened yet. Right now the 76ers are the clear superior team. So I find this point spread short.

Power rating-wise I have these two Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams ranked close to even. If anything, a slight edge to South Carolina State.

So seeing this point spread, I'm compelled to get involved with South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 15-15, while Morgan State is 12-13.

South Carolina State is 12-5-2 ATS when going against opponents with a losing record.

Norfolk State is the top team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Delaware State is the worst team.

But I'm going to be on the Hornets because this line is too inflated.

These teams just met in mid-February and Norfolk State won, 69-66.

Delaware State hasn't lost by more than 13 points during its last 12 games. The Hornets have played a number of close games. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times as underdogs.

The Hornets nearly upset Maryland-Eastern Shore in their last game six days ago losing, 63-59, as 10-point 'dogs after trailing by only one point at halftime.

First note the venue: Madison Square Garden. That's been a huge Under arena for college basketball tournament games.

Combine that with Butler and you're going to have a low-scoring matchup. The Bulldogs rank 336th in scoring at 63.1 points per game. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country ranking among the bottom-15 in tempo. The Bulldogs don't figure to get second-chance points either. Xavier led the Big East in defensive rebounding.

Butler ranks in the top 100 defensively, though, and Xavier is a bad 3-point shooting team. The Musketeers have failed to score more than 66 points in three of their last five games.

The Bucks are due for a letdown after pulling out three narrow victories the past six days edging the Heat by one point at home, defeating the Bulls by six on the road and beating the Suns at home this past Sunday in a game that was much more intense and closer than the final score indicated.

After this game, the Bucks go back home to meet the Hawks on Wednesday. So the backdoor should swing open for Oklahoma City if the Bucks were to build a big lead.

The Thunder are capable of pulling upsets. Just three games ago they knocked off the Nuggets in Denver by 12 points as a 15 1/2-point 'dog.

Oklahoma City has the second-best ATS mark in the NBA at 38-22-4 (63 percent).

Don't expect much scoring in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament game. Not with Canisius and Fairfield matching up.

Canisius is one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 337th. The Golden Griffins, though, haven't given up more than 67 points in four of their last five games.

Fairfield has surrendered an average of only 59.3 points during its last three games. The Stags, however, managed just 41 points against St. Peter's during their last game. No team plays at a slower pace in the MAAC than Fairfield.

Note, too, this game is at neutral site Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The MAAC has used this site for its postseason tournament since 2020 and the Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during the previous 15 games. It's not a fluke as the shooting background is tough because of the spacious gym and unfamiliar surroundings.

Now that Kevin Duran is back, I'm expecting the Nets to make a move. This is especially so when they are on the road when Kyrie Irving can play. The Hornets can't match that 1-2 superstar punch.

The Nets have a winning road record. They have either covered or pushed in five of their last six away contests.

The Hornets are a below .500 team that ranks 28th defensively. They are 2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Brooklyn has covered during 10 of its last 13 visits to Charlotte.

Death, taxes and the Kings have a losing season. Sacramento is going to finish below .500 for the 16th consecutive season. 

However, look for the Kings to soundly beat the Knicks here as this spot sets up well for them.

New York is playing its fourth road game in six days. The Knicks are fat and happy after a 116-93 victory against the Clippers last night that halted a seven-game losing streak. That win isn't likely to prevent Tom Thibodeau from getting fired. 

The Kings are more respectable since they acquired Domantas Sabonis and fired Luke Walton. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Sacramento would be 5-5 in its last 10 games if not for a late 3-pointer by Dorian Finney-Smith in a 114-113 loss two days ago to Dallas. 

The Kings should be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game because after this matchup they meet the Nuggets, Jazz, Bulls, Bucks, Celtics and Suns.

It's getting to the crucial stage for the Spurs. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row while falling 3 1/2 games out of postseason contention.

San Antonio has played nine of its last 10 games on the road, though. This is the first of seven straight home contests. They are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times when favored.

The Lakers are off a satisfying, 124-116, home win against the Warriors this past Saturday. LeBron James scored 56 points in that game. James is a freak of nature, but he is 37. How much will he have left for this game?

Prior to defeating the Warriors, the Lakers had gone 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS.

The Spurs have a solid bench and rate a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich.

Except for the questionable status of Mike Conley, the Jazz are at full strength. That makes them a better team than the Mavericks. 

Dallas has won four in a row. But look at who those victories were against: The Kings by one point on a late 3-point basket. A victory against the 2-7 slumping Lakers and two victories against the slumping 2-8 Warriors. 

Before those victories the Mavericks lost, 114-109, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Jazz. Utah kept Luka Doncic in check while holding Dallas to just 42 points in the second half.

Doncic missed the Mavericks last game with a toe injury. I expect him to play here, but it would be a nice bonus if he didn't. Underrated Dallas guard Jalen Brunson also is a game-time decision due to a foot injury. 

I like the way Tennessee Chattanooga is playing down the stretch. The Mocs have won their last four games. They blew out Wofford in a semifinal matchup of this Southern Conference Tournament. The Mocs are the best team in this conference and I see them getting the job down here.

The teams met twice during the regular season and the Mocs won both times, including defeating Furman by six points on the road on Feb. 12.

The Pelicans have been playing tremendous defensive basketball. They've held their last four opponents to an average of 95.5 points. Among the offenses they've shut down during this span are the Lakers, Jazz and Suns.

Denver has been producing at a fairly high-scoring clip lately. But look at the Nuggets' last five foes - Rockets, Thunder, Blazers and Kings twice. Those are bad defenses.

There's a chance the Nuggets won't have Nikola Jokic for a second straight game. He missed Denver's last game with a non-COVID illness. It's a nice bonus for the Under if he's out, but I'm not counting on that.

The Pelicans are going for their fifth straight win, but won't be able to count on getting many 3-pointers. They rank 28th in 3-point accuracy. Denver is 12th defensively and No. 2 in 3-point defense.

The Under is 9-1-1 in New Orleans' last 11 games. The Under has cashed the past six times these two teams have met in Denver.

Expect another Under winner in today's matchup.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

The Spurs are in the playoff hunt. The Hornets are a mediocre Eastern Conference team with a horrendous home record lately. Charlotte has lost nine of its last 10 home games. The Hornets are 1-9-1 ATS during their past 11 home contests.

The Spurs are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times when playing a below .500 opponent.

San Antonio has revenge and stop-the-pain motivation with three straight losses. Charlotte is a bit fat and happy having pulled off a 119-98 road win against the Cavaliers this past Wednesday.

Sparked by Gordon Hayward's 41 points, the Hornets embarrassed the Spurs, 131-115, at San Antonio on Dec. 15. Hayward is out and the Hornets' rotation is in transition.

Upset special here. Texas State enters the Sun Belt Conference Tournament as the No. 1 seed. But the Bobcats face danger. They haven't played since Feb. 25.

Louisiana Lafayette is playing its best ball winning four of its last five games. This includes a 67-64 victory against Texas Arlington on Thursday in a first-round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game. The Ragin' Cajuns won't be rusty. They also won't have the pressure on them like the Bobcats will.

The Bobcats aren't a big scoring team. They've produced fewer than 70 points in 10 of their last 12 games.

I have Mercer power-rated high than this so I'm going to back the Bears in this first round matchup of the Southern Conference Tournament 
Mercer is 15-16 while Western Carolina is 11-20. 

This game is at a neutral site. More reason not to like Western Carolina. The Catamounts are 3-13 in away/neutral site games. 

Mercer should face little resistance putting up points. Western Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking 337th giving up 77.1 points per game. 

This is a key matchup for the Wizards, who trail the Hawks and Hornets by 1 1/2 games for the final playoff position in the East.

The spot should work for the Wizards. They've beaten the Hawks eight of the past 11 times at home, including 122-111 on Oct. 28 the last time they hosted them.

The Wizards have been idle since Tuesday. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. Atlanta is off an impressive, 130-124, victory against the Bulls. Atlanta remains without John Collins, its best big man and second-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury.

Washington is without Bradley Beal. So the Wizards kind of lack an identity. But Kyle Kuzma has emerged as an excellent player and steady presence averaging 17 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists.

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

This has to feel weird for the Spurs. This is their first home game since Feb. 4. San Antonio has concluded its annual rodeo-related road trip. Now the Spurs are home where they are just 11-18 this season, including 2-5 ATS during their past seven games at AT&T Center.

Neither team is playing well. The Kings are four games out of the final playoff spot. So any game against an average-type of opponent, such as the Spurs, is crucial to them.

Sacramento doesn't lack for talent with Domantas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes. The Kings are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times when the underrated Fox has been in their lineup.

The Oilers should be good for at least three goals - if not many more.

Paced by superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers rank ninth in scoring at 3.3 goals a game. McDavid and Draisaitl are the two top point producers in the NHL.

The Blackhawks give up 3.4 goals per game, which ranks 24th. Chicago also is 29th in penalty kill. Edmonton ranks third in power play goal percentage.

Edmonton has scored 3 or more goals in nine of its last 10 games. Here the Oilers get to face a well-below average defense.

The Blackhawks should be up for this game. They've been idle for three full days. That should ensure a lot of energy and fresh legs. Just two games ago, the Blackhawks scored eight goals at home against the Devils.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is upon us. The games are played at Enterprise Center, which has a notorious shooting drop. This has made for a fantastic record on Unders - to the tune of 64 percent the past 103 times.

The Missouri Valley is a conference known for defense and underrated coaching. This really comes out, too, during the conference tournament.

Indiana State has been held to 66 or fewer points in two of its last three games. Illinois State has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during nine of its last 10 games.

There are two ways of looking at Oklahoma City. One is the conventional way where the Thunder have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. The second way is the point spread route where lo and behold the Thunder have the second-best ATS mark in the NBA.