| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
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Baseball got what it wanted - a Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants in their best-of-five playoff series. The oddsmaker knows this is likely to be a pitching duel between Julio Urias and Logan Webb, both of whom are backed by rested bullpens with the teams having been idle on Wednesday. The marketplace is buying this as the total has dropped to 6 1/2 at a number of shops. I'm buying it, too, locking into Under 7. Urias faced the Giants in Game 2 holding them to one run on three hits in five innings. Urias has won his last 12 decisions. He has a 2.61 career ERA against San Francisco. Webb has been the Giants' best pitcher. He threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in Game 1. Webb has held the current LA lineup to a .208 batting average. Each team is missing an important hitter with Max Muncy out for the Dodgers and Brandon Belt sidelined for the Giants. The clincher for me, though, is who the home plate umpire is scheduled to be: Doug Eddings. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the past two years Eddings has been behind the plate comprising 44 games. If you go by the last five years, Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire.
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| 10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
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Minus Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins are much more conservative and defensive-minded. Don't be deceived by the Penguins' 6-2 opening win against the Lightning this past Tuesday. That score is misleading due to the high number of empty net goals the Lightning gave up in a futile and classless bid to get back into a game they were going to lose. The Penguins also might be minus Jake Guentzel, too, because of COVID protocol. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is looking to play much better this season. I believe he will. The Under has cashed the past six times these teams have met. Thursday Free Play Senators plus $1.49 hosting Maple Leafs The Senators played the Maple Leafs tough last season going 4-4-1 against them and are in a great spot to spring an upset here. Toronto edged Montreal, 2-1, in front of a packed home crowd Wednesday. It was an intense, revenge game for the Maple Leafs, who were eliminated in the playoffs by the Canadiens last season. The Maple Leafs had to kill off a 5-on-3 penalty to preserve the win. While the Maple Leafs will be playing without rest, the Senators are anxious to start their season. They showed promise down the stretch last season going 7-2-1 in their final 10 games. Ottawa has won the past five times it has been a home underdog. Toronto still will be without superstar center Auston Matthews. The NHL's leading goal scorer last season is out with a wrist injury. The Senators have defeated the Maple Leafs 11 of the last 16 times at home.
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| 10-14-21 | Stars v. Rangers -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Rangers are more physical and better coached this season with Gerard Gallant. They had a tough opener at the Capitals last night. But I expect them to bounce back at home today. This is the Stars' season debut. So the Rangers have the advantage of having played a game already. Fatigue won't matter this being just the second game of the season. Dallas could be minus veteran Alexander Radulov. He missed practice on Wednesday due to non-COVID illness. The Rangers are 7-2 the past nine times when favored, while Dallas is 1-6 the past seven times as a road 'dog.
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| 10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
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This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
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| 10-13-21 | Rangers +115 v. Capitals | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
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The Rangers hate the Capitals because of Tom Wilson. New York should be tough this season with the coaching switch to Gerard Gallant. The talent and goalkeeping are there for the Rangers. Foes won't be able to physically intimate the Rangers either since New York brought in enforcer Ryan Reaves. Washington is a team that's declining. The Capitals have depth concerns and questionable goaltending. They were knocked out of the postseason early.
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| 10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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The Maple Leafs have waited all off season for this game. Montreal came back from a 3-to-1 deficit to knock the Maple Leafs out of the playoffs last season. So this is monster revenge for Toronto. I'm expecting a Toronto blowout as the Canadiens won't have goalie Carey Price and are down several defensive players. Defensemen Shea Weber and Joel Edmundson. Weber is out for the season with various injuries. Montreal also will be missing defensive-minded center Phillip Danault.
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| 10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
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This is monster revenge for the Maple Leafs. Montreal shocked their Canadian neighbor by coming back from a 3-to-1 playoff deficit to eliminate the Maple Leafs last season. The Maple Leafs are one of the higher scoring teams in the league and like to play up-tempo. They catch the Canadiens minus several key defensemen along with goalie Carey Price. Both of Tuesday's opening games sailed Over the total. I see this one going Over, too.
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| 10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
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Las Vegas wasn't your typical expansion team. The Golden Knights were good right away. Seattle isn't typical either. The Kraken aren't going to reach the lofty heights the Golden Knights did during their first couple of seasons, but they will be competitive. That's because the Kraken went for defense and goaltending. Seattle is going to play a conservative, defensive style. The Kraken have the veteran players to do this starting with defenseman and team captain Mark Giordano and goalie Philipp Graubauer, a finalist for the Vezina Trophy last season when he was with Colorado. The Kraken shut out Vancouver, 4-0, in their final preseason game last Tuesday. The Golden Knights ended last season losing in six games to the Canadiens in the Stanley Cup semifinals producing only 13 goals in those six games while going 0-for-15 in power play opportunities. Robin Lehner teamed with Marc-Andre Fleury to allow the fewest goals last season. Lehner takes over as the undisputed No. 1 goalie following Fleury's departure to the Blackhawks. Lehner and Graubauer are among the top goalies in the NHL. Depth at forward is down for both teams because of injuries and COVID-19 protocols. Las Vegas had just 10 forwards during its last practice. So I'm expecting a tight-checking, low-scoring opening game.
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| 10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
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Not having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to begin the season means a transformation for the Penguins. This transformation is to a strong defensive tone starting with this opening game. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan realizes he can't replace the 2.4 average points that Crosby and Malkin produced. So look for Pittsburgh to rely on structure and an emphasis on defense. The Penguins have good defensive depth. That was made obvious when they sent down Pierre-Olivier Joseph, who I regard as a very good defensive prospect. Sullivan was quoted saying this, ''If we're going to have success, we're going to have to play a stringy game. It's going to take a collective effort and attention to detail. With some of the game-breakers that aren't in our lineup right now, we can't look to those guys to be the difference. We have to build a team game that's going to give us the best chance to be successful.'' The Penguins led the NHL in goals against average and save percentage during March. Their goalie, Tristan Jarry, is coming off a strong regular season where he went 25-9-3 with a 2.75 goals against average. Tampa Bay has the No. 1 goalie in the NHL in Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning also will be breaking an entire new third line. |
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| 10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
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Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game. The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette.
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| 10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
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It's very close between these two teams, despite the inflated spread on the Dodgers. The big-market Dodgers with their dazzling array of super talent are always going to carry a high price. I feel very comfortable taking 1 1/2 runs with the Giants on the run line especially with them being the visitor and thus assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. San Francisco is 6-4 at Dodger Stadium this season. Another reason for this huge price is the Dodgers are pitching Max Scherzer while San Francisco is going with southpaw Alex Wood. My handicap is on the Giants not against the Dodgers. I certainly respect LA and Scherzer, a worthy Hall of Famer. But the guy is 37 and he did give up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, during his last two regular-season starts. Scherzer gave up one run on three hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the Dodgers' wild-card game. Scherzer threw 94 pitches in those 4 1/3 innings. Lifetime versus the Giants, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts. The Giants are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 road games against a righty starter. Wood has been solid for San Francisco going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts. Wood, a former Dodger, has a 3.05 career ERA at Dodger Stadium throwing 250 2/3 innings there. The Dodgers ranked eighth among National League teams in batting against lefties and were ninth in on-base percentage against southpaws. |
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| 10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
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The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. Jackson is an improved passer, making him even more lethal. He gives the Ravens a monster QB edge against Carson Wentz, who has been turnover-prone and dealing with injuries to both of his ankles. Jackson was 22-for-37 passing for 316 yards on the road last week against a very good Denver defense. The Colts' defense isn't as good ad Denver's and the Ravens are home. It's the Colts' third straight road game. The Ravens rank No. 2 in special teams, according to Football Outsiders, and their defense is getting healthier. They should be able to bottle up the Colts' ground attack and apply pressure to Wentz because Indy is without its best offensive lineman, stud guard Quenton Nelson, and also could be missing center Ryan Kelly because of a groin injury and tackle Braden Smith because of foot and thumb injuries. All of my checkmarks go to the Ravens. So I'm confident in laying a touchdown with them at home against this opponent. |
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| 10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
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Toronto is playing better having won a season-high two in a row. Both of those victories were achieved at home with the latter occurring just this past Wednesday against 2-6 Ottawa. Now the Argos have to play just five days later - and on the road in a very tough away setting for this Canadian Thanksgiving Day game. Toronto has lost and failed to cover in each of its last three away games. One of those road losses was to Hamilton, 32-19, on Sept. 6. ''I know we're going to be going into it tired,'' Argos coach Ryan Dinwiddie said about this matchup. ''We just have to make sure we're not mentally tired.'' Hamilton last played on Oct. 2 when it was upset at home by Montreal in overtime. The Tiger-Cats are anxious to redeem themselves following that tough loss, which ended an 11-game home win streak. The Tiger-Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. The return of QB Jeremiah Masoli, strong home field and nine days of rest and preparation compared to just five days for Toronto makes the Tiger-Cats the right side especially given the Argos' poor road history. Toronto is 11-25-1 ATS during its past 37 road contests. The Argos are 2-7-1 ATS the past 10 times they've played in Hamilton. |
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| 10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
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Perhaps down the road, the Chiefs will become the best team in the NFL again. Right now Kansas City can't make that distinction given how bad its defense is. But the Bills can. They are looking great on both sides of the ball. I regard the Bills as the best team in the NF. So I'll gladly accept any points coming to them in this rematch of the AFC title game. The Chiefs were better than the Bills back then. They aren't now. The Bills give up the fewest points, yards and passing yards in the NFL. Their offense can trade points against any opponent. The Chiefs are potent as ever on offense, although Patrick Mahomes already has five interceptions. Buffalo leads the NFL in takeways with 10. Kansas City rates second-to-last in points and yards allowed. The Chiefs have given up 29 or more points in every game. They rank last in yards per play allowing 6.87. The Bills are first in that category holding foes to 4.0 yards per play. Buffalo has covered 12 of its last 15 games. The Chiefs are just the opposite going 3-12 ATS. Kansas City also is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games.
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| 10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show |
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Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance behind center, I want the 49ers going for me here. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS the past 14 times as an underdog and catch the Cardinals, the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, fat and happy after they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with their impressive, 37-20, victory last Sunday. San Francisco is 2-2, but aren't that far from being 4-0. They nearly pulled off a comeback against the Packers and they outgained the Seahawks by 223 yards in their one-score loss to Seattle last week. The 49ers have held their last three foes - Eagles, Packers and Seahawks - to an average of 305 yards. Kyler Murray is the early frontrunner for MVP. The Cardinals have played three weak defenses, though, in the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars. Kliff Kingsbury has been terrible in this role as the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite during the Kingsbury era.
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| 10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show | |
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The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense. The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings. This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved.
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| 10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
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The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
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| 10-10-21 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
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The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes. The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game. The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league. Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury.
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| 10-10-21 | Titans v. Jaguars +4.5 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
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This is the Jaguars' biggest game of the season. Something Urban Meyer is well aware of. Indications are the Jaguars have had a good week of practice despite the distractions of Meyer. Trevor Lawrence is getting better at protecting the ball. He faces a very weak defense here. Zach Wilson enjoyed success against the Titans last Sunday. So should Lawrence. Tennessee gives up 27.8 points a game. That's just one fewer point per game than the Jaguars allow. Jacksonville is capable. They led both the Cardinals and Bengals by nine and 14 points before losing. Given their injury situation, the Titans should not be laying more than a field goal on the road. Maybe the Titans get back A.J. Brown, but they are likely to still be without Julio Jones and underrated punter Brett Kern. Tennessee also is banged-up in its offensive line. The Titans have yielded 17 sacks, most in the NFL entering this week.
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| 10-09-21 | New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
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Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
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| 10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
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Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory. I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite.
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| 10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
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Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense. Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games. The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury. Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week.
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| 10-09-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5 | 35-25 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
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North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
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| 10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
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Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
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| 10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks +10 v. Winnipeg | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
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Winnipeg is the best team in the Canadian Football League at 7-1. Edmonton has been one of the most disappointing at 2-5. The Elks are in desperation mode to turn around their wretched season. They get back their star QB, Trevor Harris, who has missed the past two games. The line is at double-digits. It's enough to get me involved with the Elks. Winnipeg has a very strong home field. But the Elks' two victories have come in away games with upset wins against Calgary and British Columbia. The Bombers have a two-game lead in the Western Division so they don't have the urgency Edmonton does. Edmonton has dangerous skill position weapons. The quality of these weapons is raised with the return of Harris. Elks running back James Wilder Jr. leads the CFL in rushing. Derel Walker, Greg Ellingson, Teuvan Smith and Shai Ross are all talented receivers. The Blue Bombers are going to be without Kenny Lawler, their star wide receiver who leads the CFL in receiving yards. He is suspended. There's also some unique scheduling here. Winnipeg already has beaten Edmonton, 37-22, on Sept. 18. The teams meet again next week in Edmonton. So the Blue Bombers may not want to show too much, or run up a score against the Elks knowing they'll be playing right away again.
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| 10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
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Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out.
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| 10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
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Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.
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| 10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
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Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed. The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley. Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald. The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs. The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under.
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| 10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
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Neither of the first two postseason baseball games went Over the total. I see that changing here because this total is set too low. The White Sox have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games. They finished with the fifth highest batting average in the majors and scored the seventh-most runs. Houston's offense is even more impressive. The Astros rank first in runs and batting average. They are averaging 7.6 runs in their last three games. Lance McCullers and Lance Lynn, these Game 1 starters, are good but not dominant pitchers. Lynn has a bad history versus the Astros with a 4.41 lifetime ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts.
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| 10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
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Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts.
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| 10-06-21 | Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
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Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season.
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| 10-06-21 | Ottawa v. Toronto -8.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
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Toronto should take care of business at home against Ottawa. The Argos are 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS at home this season. The Redblacks have the worst defense in the CFL and are below average on offense. Ottawa has been outscored by 82 points in its seven games. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Argos, though, won't be looking past Ottawa. The Redblacks and their new QB, Caleb Evans, got Toronto's attention with an upset home victory against Edmonton last week. Evans threw 3 TD's in that contest while showing off excellent mobility. That was his first CFL game. Chris Jones is a defensive consultant for Toronto and one of the sharper defensive minds in the league. He now has film on Evans. I'm sure the Argos will be looking to keep Evans inside the pocket. Before the Redblacks sprung their upset of Edmonton, they had lost and failed to cover five straight games with all of those defeats coming by 12 or more points. Ottawa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and has failed to cover the past eight times facing an Eastern Conference team.
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| 10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
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Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 13 playoff starts. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in six career postseason appearances that includes two starts. Neither manager is going to hold back with his top bullpen pitchers either as the winner won't play again until Thursday. Weather-wise favors the Under with wind blowing in at seven miles per hour and possible light rain in the forecast. These teams have an Under bias, too, in their rivalry. The Under is 12-3-1 the past 16 meetings. The Under also has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have met at Fenway Park.
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| 10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
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The oddsmaker considers these teams even if you factor three points for home field advantage. The Chargers have a weaker home-field edge than most teams. Still, even given that, I believe the Chargers are superior to Las Vegas. Credit to Derek Carr and to Las Vegas for opening 3-0. That hasn't occurred for the Raiders in 19 years. But in studying this matchup, I give the key checkmarks to the Chargers. I like Justin Herbert better than Carr. The Chargers have the best all-purpose running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. LA also rates a strong wide receiving edge with Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Mike Williams. Those two have been one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL this season. LA also has a much improved offensive line, while the Raiders' offensive line still is in transition. Defensively, the Raiders are middle-of-the-pack. The Chargers give up four fewer points per game than the Raiders, have the better pass defense and double the number of takeaways Las Vegas has. Joey Bosa is the best pass rusher on the field and Derwin James would be the best player in either secondary if he can suit up, which he expects to do. I have serious doubts about how good the Raiders defense is going to look on the road against Herbert. The Chargers have proven vulnerable on the ground. Las Vegas, however, ranks among the bottom-eight in rushing. LA upset Washington and Kansas City on the road. The Chargers held the potent Cowboys to 20 points. Dallas is averaging 35.3 points in its three other games. The Raiders had a nice upset win at home against the Ravens in overtime opening week. The Raiders then upset the Steelers on the road. That win, though, doesn't look as impressive now considering the Steelers are 1-3 and have been outscored by 26 points. The Raiders then barely escaped the Dolphins and backup QB Jacoby Brissett winning, 31-28 in overtime, at home last week. The Dolphins are 1-3. They have managed just 34 points in their three games not against Las Vegas.
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| 10-03-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
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Forget all the hype leading up to this matchup, the most anticipated regular season game in years. This is a a one-sided matchup. The Patriots can't come close to matching Tampa Bay's firepower and New England's defense, while good, is not great. The Patriots can defend well against bad offenses and bad QB's. New England can't stop an elite offense and quarterback such as Tom Brady, though. Bill Belichick doesn't have enough chess pieces to stop Brady from effectively using Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who has scored as many TD's as the Patriots have produced as a team. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' top cornerback, remains out. Game manager rookie QB Mac Jones isn't going to be able to keep up. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense. Jones lacks experience and explosive wideouts. His most dependable all-purpose running back, James White, is sidelined with a hip injury. The Patriots have no ability to play from behind. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay blowout.
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| 10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
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Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary. Wilson is on pace for career highs in many of the major categories. The 49ers have trouble with mobile QB's. Wilson gives the Seahawks a monster QB edge. The 49ers are a running team lacking a lead runner due to injuries. Seattle has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 13-5-1 ATS during the last 19 meetings. The 49ers also have dropped their last five games at Levi's Stadium. |
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| 10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 33 m | Show | |
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After looking decent during preseason, the Jets have looked terrible on offense. Keep in mind, though, New York's schedule. The Jets' first three opponents were the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. Those are three strong defenses. Now New York steps way down in defensive class. Zach Wilson has the receiving weapons to take advantage of the Titans' weak secondary and lack of a pass rush. The Titans are likely going to be missing their two star wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Both are dealing with hamstring injuries. The 0-3 Jets are in desperation mode while the Titans are fat and happy coming off a big win against the Colts and with a division game against the Jaguars on deck.
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| 10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -16.5 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 65 h 32 m | Show | |
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Yes this is the largest point spread of the season. It's still not enough points for the Texans, though. Josh Allen is back in form - as he showed in a 22-point victory against Washington last week - and the Bills' defense is playing at a high level with an experienced secondary and promising young pass rushers. Rookie QB Davis Mills isn't going to be able to dent Buffalo's defense that ranks fourth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Texans are conservative both offensively and defensively in an effort to hide their lack of talent. The Bills are perfectly suited to attack the Texans' zone coverages because Allen likes to throw short to Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, all of whom are adept in finding soft spots in coverage. Houston was competitive at the start of the season. But that was with Tyrod Taylor behind center and playing easier opponents. The Texans are at least three TD's worse on the road than Buffalo.
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| 10-03-21 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 42 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show | |
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The Bears defense, particularly Khalil Mack, is back playing at a high level. Chicago's defense should encounter little trouble from a Lions attack that has the worst wide receivers in the NFL and a mediocre QB in Jared Goff. The Lions are 0-3, but have shown tremendous effort under fiery Dan Campbell. If it weren't for a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, the Lions would have held the Ravens to 16 points. I doubt Andy Dalton is able to play this week. So Justin Fields is in line to make his second NFL start. He's not ready for that role yet as the Browns clearly showed last week holding Chicago to 47 yards on 42 plays. The Bears rank last in yards gained and are second-to-last in scoring.
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| 10-03-21 | Sun -3.5 v. Sky | 83-86 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
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Connecticut is the top defensive team in the WNBA. I want the Sun's big-game experience and pedigree going for me today. The Sun tied the series at 1-1 apiece by defeating Chicago, 79-68, at home this past Thursday. Alyssa Thomas was a key, playing in just her fourth game since tearing her Achilles in January. Connecticut won that game by 11 points despite only getting four points from Jonquel Jones, who is due for a bigger performance. That was 15 points below Jones' season average. The Sky has failed to cover in 17 of their last 22 home games. |
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| 10-02-21 | Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
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This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
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| 10-02-21 | Washington v. Oregon State -123 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
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Oregon State could be the most improved team in the country while Washington remains overrated by the oddsmaker. This is the best team Jonathan Smith has had in his four years as head coach at Oregon State. His Beavers have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games, including winning and covered each of the last three weeks. The Beavers just upset USC, 45-27, on the road last week. Excluding a 52-3 win against Arkansas State, which gives up the most yards in the country, Washington is averaging 13.6 points in regulation during its three other games. The Huskies have been overrated on defense, too, and are dealing with injuries to starting cornerbacks, Brendan Radley-Hiles and Trent McDuffie. The Huskies won't have Cade Otton, one of the better tight ends in the Pac-12. He's in COVID-19 protocol.
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| 10-02-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
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The buy sign is on with Zac Gallen. He was one of the most promising pitchers in baseball until injuries derailed him. But he's back now and looking great. Just ask the powerful Dodgers. Gallen held LA to one run on three hits in six innings last Saturday in a 7-2 victory. Gallen also was sharp recently against Colorado. He shut the Rockies out on three hits in seven innings with nine strikeouts and only one walk on Aug. 21. The Diamondbacks are motivated not to finish with the worst record in team history. They are furious about blowing a huge lead to the Rockies on Friday. Colorado is a terrible road team with a 26-52 away mark.
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| 10-02-21 | Mets +113 v. Braves | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Braves rested several regulars in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Mets and they are going to sit out a number of key starters again today. The Braves have their playoff ticket punched so they don't care about this game. It's a bullpen game for Atlanta with Jesse Chavez being the nominal starter. A bunch of young pitchers for Atlanta could see action here. The Mets are going with veteran Carlos Carrasco. New York's best everyday players should be in the lineup with their careers on the line as the Mets decide the future course of their team.
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| 10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50 | 36-12 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
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Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
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| 10-02-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary +2.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
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Circumstances set up well here for Calgary. The Stampeders haven't played in two weeks. They draw Saskatchewan off a huge upset road win against BC last week. This is only the Roughriders' third road game and first in consecutive weeks. They lost their first road game, 33-9, to Winnipeg on Sept. 11. Calgary desperately needs this game being 2-5 looking up at three teams in the West Division. I have confidence that veteran QB Bo Levin Mitchell is in line for a big performance following a bye. He's healthy now and proven to be one of the top QB's in the league. Saskatchewan is banged up defensively both on its line and in the secondary. The Stampeders have always been a strong 'dog play covering 69 percent of the time in that role during the past 51 instances. They are 3-1 ATS as a 'dog this season and 6-1 ATS as a home 'dog the past seven times.
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| 10-02-21 | Reds -154 v. Pirates | 6-8 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
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The Pirates embarrassed the Reds on Friday. The pitching matchup clearly favors Cincinnati today. It's a meaningless game, but I do believe prideful Tyler Mahle will dominate the Pirates. He's facing a bad pitcher in Max Kranick. Mahle has had a career year with 13 victories, 12 quality starts and 204 strikeouts. He has been at his finest away from hitter Great American Ball Park where he's 8-2 with a 1.85 ERA. The Pirates rank 30th in homers and RBI's. Kranick is a horrible pitcher on a horrible team. He's 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA.
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| 10-02-21 | Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64 | 29-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 13 m | Show | |
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There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
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| 10-02-21 | Cincinnati -126 v. Notre Dame | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 44 m | Show | |
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Notre Dame a slight home 'dog to an American Conference team. Is this true? It is. The oddsmaker is telling you Cincinnati is better than Notre Dame and I'm reinforcing that. Notre Dame buried Wisconsin last week, but the Irish have struggled this season. They needed overtime to defeat Florida State and they struggled against Toledo and Purdue before pulling those victories out in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati is way above those teams. The Bearcats have had ample rest and preparation time, too, for this matchup having been idle last week. Notre Dame has been inconsistent running the ball and not had good pass protection. The Irish's young offensive line has yet to come together. That should prove fatal in this game. Jack Coan has put together a better-than-expected season for Notre Dame, but he's not a mobile quarterback. Cincinnati QB Desmnond Ridder is. Ridder is the best QB the Irish have faced. He has a good runner in Jerome Ford and several skilled wide receivers.
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| 10-01-21 | Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
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Arizona owns the worst record in baseball at 50-109. The Diamondbacks have lost 10 of their last 12 home games. So anytime I can lay a short price against them, especially with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look to do that. Veteran Jon Gray goes for Colorado. Gray has failed to live up to No. 1 starter status with Colorado, but he's decent given that he has a 4.28 ERA and plays half of his games at Coors Field. Rookie Humberto Castellanos also has a 4.28 ERA. He has made only six big league starts. The Rockies have lost 24 fewer games than the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 6-24 in its last 30 games. Colorado is on a two-game win streak. The Rockies are 26-10 the past 36 times when favored.
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| 10-01-21 | Indians -116 v. Rangers | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
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Sometimes you can find good spots and value in meaningless games. That's what we have in this matchup. Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is 4-7 with a 5.27 ERA. Bad numbers. However, Morgan is coming off two well-pitched games against strong offenses. Morgan held the Yankees and White Sox to a combined one run and seven hits in 12 innings during his past two starts. Now Morgan steps way down in class to face the Rangers. Texas is tied with Pittsburgh for the third-worst record in baseball at 59-100. The Rangers are pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA. He's never gone more than four innings. The Indians usually do the job when favored, winning 16 of the last 22 times in that role.
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| 10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
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Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa. Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits. Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa. Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.
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| 09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
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The Dodgers have lived up to their super team status. They are 38-13 since August. The Padres had high hopes of challenging the Dodgers. That didn't materialize. Now the Padres are a dead team, eliminated from playoff contention and 1-10 in their last 11 games. They have lost eight in a row to the Dodgers. I see the Dodgers rolling over San Diego again in a pitching matchup of Vince Velasquez versus Tony Gonsolin. The Padres have discovered the hard way what the Phillies found to be true - Velasquez is not a big league starter. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. He's 0-2 with the Padres with a 9.00 ERA. He's made eight career appearances against the Dodgers and is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA. Gonsolin is one of many outstanding young pitchers the Dodgers have. He's 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts. At home, Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA. He's made six starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Career-wise versus San Diego, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings.
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| 09-30-21 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
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The Brewers snapped the Cardinals' 17-game win streak Wednesday night winning, 4-0. Mission accomplished, though, for the Cardinals. They have earned a wild-card berth. This is a quick turnaround being an early start. The Cardinals have to be a bit deflated with their win streak - the longest in the majors in five years - now history. The pitching matchup is southpaw Brett Anderson, who has a 4.30 ERA, versus lefty J.A. Happ, who has a 5.86 ERA. The prideful veteran Anderson won't lack motivation after the Cardinals knocked him out in the second inning just eight days ago. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times going against a lefty starter. Milwaukee has been a top road club, too, winning 38 of its last 54 away contests. The Cardinals still could be missing star catcher Yadier Molina. He's been out the last two games due to shoulder stiffness.
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| 09-29-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
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Granted, Frankie Montas and Logan Gilbert have pitched well this month. But this total is set too low. The A's rank 12th in runs. They are averaging 5.2 runs this month. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the A's have gone against a righty starter on the road. Gilbert has a 4.83 ERA on the season. He's a back-of-the-rotation type starter. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in 20 of its last 24 games. Montas has pitched 12 innings against Seattle this year and given up seven earned runs.
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| 09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
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Given this is a meaningless game with a pair of mediocre starters and bullpens with a high fatigue rating due to Tuesday's doubleheader, I find this total to be short. Elieser Hernandez goes for Miami. He has a 4.24 ERA and doesn't usually pitch deep into games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has dealt with injuries his entire career. It's a bit ironic that Walker is one of the few healthy Mets starters left. That hasn't been a plus, though, for New York. Walker has largely disappointed with a 7-11 record and 4.57 ERA. His ERA during his past five starts is a hideous 8.10.
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| 09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
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I see the Red Sox bouncing back in a big way after losing, 4-2, to the Orioles on Tuesday. Boston has beaten Baltimore 12 of the past 14 times. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. He's 6-1 in his last seven starts. He has a 3.88 ERA on the season. The Red Sox get to face rookie southpaw Zac Lowther, who has been overmatched this season. Lowther has a 7.66 ERA. He has given up 10 runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. Boston ranks third in the American League in batting average against lefties. Each of the Red Sox last seven victories have been by more than one run.
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| 09-28-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
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The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
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| 09-28-21 | Rays v. Astros -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
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I rarely go against the Rays. I have tremendous respect for them and their manager, Kevin Cash. However, I have no respect for Michael Wacha. I think he's terrible. So I'm going to fade Wacha and his 3-5 record and 5.49 ERA and back the Astros knowing there are favorable angles backing Houston. Such as: Houston is 54-18 (75 percent) following a day off. Houston also gets up for the best competition going 11-3 the past 14 times versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Rays have had problems when playing at Houston losing five of the past six times there. The Astros are going with Jose Urquidy, who is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He's superior to Wacha, who has a 6.14 career ERA versus the Astros having made two relief appearances against them. Wacha has a fat 5.82 ERA during his last 12 overall starts.
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| 09-28-21 | Phillies v. Braves -114 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
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I have a lot of respect for Zach Wheeler. The righthander has been very good this season. I have far less respect for the Phillies' 34-41 road record. I also respect Charlie Morton, especially in big games such as this one. Morton has come on after a slow beginning with the Braves to post a 2.95 ERA in his last 18 starts. The price is low enough for me to back the home Braves. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Braves also have won the past seven times when facing a righty starter. |
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| 09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
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The Cowboys have marquee skill position talent. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times laying points and have much to prove defensively after last season's disaster. The Eagles are a blue-collar team by comparison. They lack the superstar offensive talent Dallas possesses. Philly, however, is tough in the trenches even without injured defensive end Brandon Graham and Pro Bowl guard Brandon Brooks. The Cowboys are without their top pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence. Jalen Hurts is the best running quarterback in the NFC. The Eagles have the style of offense that can grind the Cowboys down while playing ball-control. Philadelphia's defense has been outstanding holding the Falcons and 49ers to a combined average of 11.5 points. Early returns on Eagles' first-year head coach Nick Sirianni are positive. This is the Eagles' lone scheduled nationally televised game. I see them producing a strong effort and getting the right result even though they aren't nearly as fancy as Dallas.
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| 09-27-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +150 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
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After 10 consecutive road games, the White Sox were looking forward to a day off Monday and then finishing the regular season at home. That's not going to happen, though. Because of a rainout, the White Sox have to make this stop in Detroit before coming home to play their last five regular season games. The White Sox are the AL Central Division champions. But they are just one game above .500 since the All-Star break. They can't be too excited about this game either. Perhaps the White Sox should be favored. But certainly not by this high of a price in a pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel versus Matt Manning. The 33-year-old Keuchel is 8-9 with a 5.18 ERA. He has his worst strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2012 when he was a rookie. He's faced the Tigers three times this season and has a 6.00 ERA against them. The current Tigers roster is batting .324 against him. Manning is one of the Tigers' prize prospects. The rookie has had his ups and downs with a 4-6 record and 5.73 ERA. However, Manning has been pitching better allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.
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| 09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
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The Packers got back on track Monday. They led the league in scoring last season and their offense was back in sync after being rusty opening week in a shocking blowout loss to the Saints. The 49ers are heavily run-oriented. However, they have a cluster injury problem at running back. Game manager Jimmy Garoppolo needs a strong running attack to set up his passing rather than the other way around. Aaron Rodgers versus Garoppolo is a monster mismatch. The 49ers have been terrible as home favorites going 5-20-1 ATS in that role.
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| 09-26-21 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44 | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 2 m | Show | |
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The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years. Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen. Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL.
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| 09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5 | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
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Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones. Neither offensive line is playing well either. Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game. Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.
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| 09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
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Justin Fields makes his first NFL start. He's an exciting talent, but he's not nearly NFL-ready. Not helping matters for Fields is Chicago's offensive line isn't ready either. The Browns are better defensively than they have shown. I regard Myles Garrett as the AFC's most feared pass rusher along with T.J. Watt. The Browns are the only team in the NFL sporting a top-three grade in both passing and run blocking. That's how good their offensive line is. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be the best running tandem in the league. Chubb has scored at least one rushing TD in eight consecutive games. Baker Mayfield is leading the NFL in completion percentage and now gets Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time this season. The Bears yielded Matthew Stafford's highest career passer rating opening week. Beckham is an electrifying presence who is sure to fire up the home crowd. The Bears' plight will be made worse if run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman still can't make his season debut because of a knee injury.
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| 09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills -7 | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
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Taylor Heinicke is a nice story. But Josh Allen is close to superstar status. I see Allen getting right and Buffalo's defense, which looks far more like its dominant self of 2019 than last season, handling Heinicke and a much more limited Washington offense. Washington's defense has yet to live up to expectations. Buffalo has upgraded its pass rush to go with a strong back seven on defense. This is Heinicke's first road start. The Bills have the defensive coaching with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier and talent to make it very rough on him, while Allen gets untracked against Washington's mediocre linebackers and average secondary.
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| 09-25-21 | Tennessee +20 v. Florida | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
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Florida played an outstanding game last week nearly upsetting Alabama as a two-touchdown 'dog losing, 31-29. That was a physical game and the Gators nearly tied it at 31-31 but couldn't convert on a 2-point run with 3:41 left. Florida had fought back from a 21-3 deficit. I don't know how much the Gators will have left for this matchup. Tennessee looks much more dangerous under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are off to a 3-0 start while averaging 42.7 points. I'm fine with whoever the Volunteers play at quarterback whether it's Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker. Tennessee is averaging 223 yards rushing a game. I'm not sure the oddsmaker has fully caught up to Tennessee. The combination of that and Florida being in somewhat of a letdown spot following the Alabama game, puts me on the Volunteers taking nearly three touchdowns.
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| 09-25-21 | Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
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Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
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| 09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
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In Greg Schiano we trust. Schiano has turned around Rutgers making the Scarlet Knights respectable. Rutgers won three Big Ten games last season and nearly upset Michigan as an 11-point 'dog losing, 48-42, in triple overtime. Michigan is off to a fast start with three blowout victories against inferior competition. But Rutgers also is 3-0 with victories versus Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. Rutgers has forced eight turnovers and come up with 14 sacks. Scarlet Knights QB Noah Vedral isn't doing anything foolish. He's completed 71.6 percent of his throws with four TD passes and no interceptions. The Wolverines have a much bigger game on tap next week when they take on Wisconsin. That's a huge revenge game for Michigan, which lost by 38 points to the Badgers last year. The Scarlet Knights definitely can stay within three TD's of the Wolverines.
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| 09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
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Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
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| 09-25-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
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I don't think Jack Coan and Notre Dame are getting enough respect here. Note this matchup is at neutral site Soldier Field in Chicago, not in Madison, Wis. Coan has erased the doubts I had about him entering the season completing nearly 64 percent of his passes for 828 yards and 8 TD's. Kyren Williams gives Notre Dame the best running back. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz entered the program with a lot of hype. He had a monster game against Illinois in his first start - and then has gone downhill since then. He has yet to throw a TD this season. Penn State held Wisconsin to just 10 points. No way do I see Wisconsin being nearly a TD better than Notre Dame on a neutral field.
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| 09-24-21 | Mets v. Brewers -130 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
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Neither the Mets nor Brewers are playing well right now. Milwaukee just got swept four games by the Cardinals. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. St. Louis is the hottest team in baseball winning 12 in a row. The Brewers just happened to run into the Cardinals. Now they drop down in class facing the Mets. The Mets have lost 11 of the past 12 times they've played the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brewers are the better team and have the stronger pitching matchup here with Eric Lauer versus Tylor Megill. Lauer is sailing below-the-radar with a 1.83 ERA in his last 13 appearances, which includes 12 starts. He's backed by a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Megill started well, but has hit a rookie wall. He has a 6.31 ERA. in his last seven starts.
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| 09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
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Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick. The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game. Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception. Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago. I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.
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| 09-24-21 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 48.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
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This total is too short. Montreal and Toronto rank second and third, respectively, in yards gained. The Alouettes lead the CFL in scoring at 26.2 points per game. The Alouettes have both a good QB, Vernon Adams, and an excellent running back, William Stanback. They draw Toronto in a defensive transition phase. The Argonauts just brought in veteran coach Chris Jones, who has his own way of doing things. It's going to take time for the Argonauts to pick up Jones' schemes. Toronto also is down two of its Canadian linebackers, Cameron Judge and Henoc Muamba. Both are out with injuries. Toronto is replacing injured QB Nick Arbuckle with McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who played well at home two seasons ago when he was Toronto's starting QB. The CFL did not play in 2020. The bar isn't set high here for Toronto's offense as Montreal has yielded an average of 27.7 points during its last four games.
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| 09-23-21 | Liberty v. Mercury -9 | 82-83 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
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The Liberty are one of the worst teams in WNBA history to make the playoffs at 12-20. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games. The Mercury should have no trouble here unless the Liberty hits a high percentage of their 3-point shots. I'm banking against that. New York relies on the shooting of Betnijah Laney and she's having a terrible month averaging only 9.8 points on 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Phoenix should dominate inside with Britteny Griner, who has been tremendous following the Olympic break. Thanks to Griner, the Mercury has a huge size advantage on New York. The Liberty has just one player taller than 6-foot-2. The Liberty has failed to cover in six of their last seven games against Phoenix. It's a plus if Diana Taurasi is able to play. But the Mercury won't need her against this opponent having gone 13-4 versus foes with a losing record.
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| 09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
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I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday. The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills. This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career. A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total. |
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| 09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
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The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina. |
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| 09-23-21 | Giants -102 v. Padres | 6-7 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
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Too much undeserved respect is being given to the Padres here. All the Giants do is win. They are 15-4 in their last 19 games and have been the most profitable team for bettors this season with the best record in baseball. The Giants also have their most effective pitcher going - Logan Webb. The season record shows Webb at 10-3 with a 2.79 ERA. But that's counting a slow start. Webb hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in 16 of his last 18 starts. He also hasn't lost a game since May 5. The Padres have collapsed. Yu Darvish hasn't helped. He's been a major disappointment with an 8-10 record and 4.13 ERA. Darvish has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last nine starts. He's recorded just one victory since June 21. Given the pitching matchups and price, it's a no-brainer to back the Giants.
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| 09-22-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
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Playing on marketplace perception, the oddsmaker has a tendency to set a higher total than what should be at Coors Field. The Under has cashed in 22 of the Rockies' last 32 home games. I'm expecting another Under in today's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have gone below the total the past six times they've met. The pitching matchup is Walker Buehler versus German Marquez. I don't doubt Buehler will come in with a strong performance being a Cy Young Award candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.39 ERA. He has a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this season. Buehler has yielded two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. I see Marquez holding up his end, too. He's 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season. He also has a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Dodgers.
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| 09-22-21 | Twins v. Cubs +106 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
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I'm going to side with veteran Kyle Hendricks at a plus price pitching at home against rookie Joe Ryan. Hendricks is having a disappointing season, but he's a proven commodity and he knows how to navigate tricky winds at Wrigley Field. Those are the weather conditions in today's games with winds at 23 mph blowing in. Hendricks won't lack motivation as this likely will be his final home start. Ryan has looked good for Minnesota - but the sample is short. This is his fourth big league start. Two of them came against the weak-hitting Indians. The other was against these same Cubs, who got to him for three runs in five innings on Sept. 1. So the Cubs are familiar with Ryan. Note the Twins are 0-5 the past five times they've been interleague favorites.
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| 09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
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Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
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| 09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 11 m | Show |
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The Packers are in a kill spot hosting a Detroit team that is much worse than its final score indicated from Week 1. The 49ers led the Lions, 31-10, at halftime. So the 49ers' 41-33 final is misleading. Make no mistake, the Lions are terrible. Their defense is slow, can't pressure the QB and the secondary just lost cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season. The Packers laid an egg in Week 1. They are eager to show the Monday night national TV audience just how potent they can be. Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous dude. Green Bay could not have asked for an easier pasty to achieve their atonement.
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| 09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 140 h 29 m | Show | |
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This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself. The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force.
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| 09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
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John Means is the Orioles' lone decent starter. Ranger Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies with a 1.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. But opening an Orioles-Phillies game at less than 8 1/2 runs is a mistake no matter who the starting pitchers are. The Orioles are the worst defensive team in the league with perhaps the worst bullpen, too. The Phillies' relief pitching is very vulnerable, too. The Phillies have an above average offense. They are averaging 6.8 runs in their last five games. The Orioles rank 14th in homers. They have four players with 21 or more homers. So they have some sock. Playing at hitter-friendly Citzens Bank Park is another plus for the Over.
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| 09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
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All summer Andy Reid works on various offensive schemes and innovations. His work and creativity is unleashed during the first month of the season when opponents aren't fully prepared for it. The combination of Reid and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes has resulted in the Chiefs never losing a September game in 11 tries with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has a mind-boggling 35-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during these games. The Ravens haven't been able to stop the Chiefs losing each of the last three seasons to Kansas City. This time around the Chiefs are much healthier than Baltimore. Mahomes has completed 70.5 percent of his throws in three games against the Ravens for an average of 378.6 yards while accounting for 10 TD's with only one interception. The Ravens are going to have to try to stop Mahomes while possibly missing their two top cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is out and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. I don't see the Ravens being able to slow down Kansas City while also being unable to keep up with Mahomes on the offensive end. The left side of Baltimore's offensive line is banged up, including star left tackle Ronnie Stanley, and the team is down to backup running backs with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards lost for the season.
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| 09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
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This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total. The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up. The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against. The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead.
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| 09-19-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Cardinals were impressive in dismantling the Titans on the road this past Sunday. The Vikings,on the other hand, laid an egg losing in overtime to the Bengals. Yes, the Vikings have serious offensive line injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks. But they have a very defensive front seven that will be made even better if linebacker Anthony Barr is back this week. Mike Zimmer should have the Vikings in a very serious mood while the Cardinals return to the desert fat and happy. Kyler Murry is proving to be an elite talent. The Cardinals, though, are far from a complete team. They also are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Kirk Cousins has the skill position stars to take advantage with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Cardinals deserve to be a home favorite. But no more than by a field goal.
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| 09-19-21 | Patriots -5.5 v. Jets | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
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Having watched both the Patriots and Jets it's clear New England is at least a touchdown better than the Jets - and that's being the road team. The Patriots dominated yardage and time of possession against the Dolphins. They should have won that game. The Patriots rate enormous edges in the trenches against the Jets. New York had trouble protecting Zach Wilson against the Panthers and that was when they had its best offensive lineman, left tackle Mekhi Becton. He suffered a knee injury against Carolina and is out. Bill Belichick is 23-11-1 ATS for 68 percent the past 36 times the Patriots have played following a loss. Belichick also is 9-1 the past 10 times he's faced a rookie QB. New England rookie QB Mac Jones is in a far better position to succeed than Wilson playing behind an excellent offensive line, with a much stronger defense and excellent, proven coaching. The Jets barely averaged 15 points a game last season. They couldn't even reach that number against Carolina. Wilson didn't have time to throw and no ground game to rely on.
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| 09-19-21 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 39 m | Show | |
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The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here. The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson. The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back.
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| 09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 15 m | Show |
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All the preseason talk about the AFC North was about the Browns and Ravens. Lost in the glare of those teams is the Steelers, who happen to win 12 games last season and the AFC North. Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks and had a top-three defense. There are new starters, but the Steelers' defense remains top-notch. Ben Roethlisberger is fresh right now. He has three strong wide receivers and a ground attack that now must be respected thanks to rookie running back Najee Harris. Las Vegas isn't in Pittsburgh's class. The Raiders also are in a horrible situational spot. They are coming off the biggest victory since they moved to Las Vegas two years ago with their Monday night home upset of the Ravens, which was the first game in Las Vegas where fans could attend. Now the Raiders have to travel cross-country on a short week. They also draw an early start time.
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| 09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 93 h 13 m | Show | |
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The Saints played a great game against the Packers last week. But the Saints are not the 11-win power of past seasons. They have a turnover-prone QB and below average receivers with their top two wideouts hurt. Their defensive line depth is gone and their secondary is extremely vulnerable especially cornerback Marshon Lattimore out. The Panthers are an ascending team in Matt Ruhle's second year. They have the weapons to exploit the Saints' secondary with Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Carolina also has a lot of young talented defensive players. Brian Burns is an emerging star pass rusher. The Saints suffered a number of injuries last week, including one to center Erik McCoy, who is one of the better centers in the league.
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| 09-18-21 | Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
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Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
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| 09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
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Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
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| 09-18-21 | Mariners +101 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
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The Mariners are 13 games better than the Royals, have more to play for being in the wild-card race and are 7-0 in their last seven games in Kansas City. Yet, the Mariners opened slight underdogs. The pitching matchup of Yusei Kikuchi versus Kris Bubic doesn't justify that. Both are lefthanders. The Royals hit lefties better and have a winning record against southpaws at 25-22. Seattle, though, is 31-25 versus lefty starters. Kikuchi is 7-8 with a 4.23 ERA. He permitted just one run in five innngs during his last start this past Sunday against the Diamondbacks. He recorded eight strikeouts. Bubic is 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings when he faced the Mariners on Aug. 27 allowing five runs on nine hits.
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| 09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
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A major takeaway from Marshall opening the season 2-0 is Marshall's first-year head coach Charles Huff will run up a score. He's done it twice already. The Thunder Herd poured it on against Navy, 49-7, and buried North Carolina Central, 44-10. Grant Wells has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Thunder Herd should roll again here. They have the offense and catch East Carolina off an excruciating defeat. The Pirates nearly upset South Carolina, but lost, 20-17, on a last-second field goal. The Pirates haven't been relevant since 2014. They are 16-43 the past six plus seasons. I find Holton Ahlers to be one of the most overrated quarterbacks in college football. His numbers don't translate to his hype. |
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| 09-18-21 | Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
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Can you say sandwich? That's what Arkansas finds itself in this week. Fresh off a 40-21 upset of Texas, the Razorbacks became ranked for the first time since 2016. They have a much bigger game on deck against unbeaten Texas A&M. So the spot is right for Georgia Southern to hang inside of this large number. The Eagles run a triple-option attack. That means tons of running plays, which eats clock. Arkansas has yet to get its passing attack in gear. That means the Razorbacks also will be staying on the ground a lot, too. The Eagles didn't look good against Florida Atlantic. But the Eagles also didn't have their starting QB, Justin Tomlin. He's back for this game. Georgia Southern also could get running back JD King back from injury. Georgia Southern is better than how it played against Florida Atlantic. The Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech, 38-3, in the New Orleans Bowl last season. They have covered each of the last six times they've met a foe with a winning record.
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| 09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
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The oddsmaker is significantly downgrading Florida State after the 0-2 Seminoles lost to Notre Dame and Jacksonville State, an FCS program. OK, I get that. But Florida State lost each of those games on the final play and Jacksonville State isn't a bad team. The Seminoles may still have been down about their overtime loss to Notre Dame in their opener and were affected by that against Jacksonville State. Both of Florida State's losses came at home. So maybe it's best the Seminoles go on the road where their focus could be sharper especially in need of a victory. It's rare to see Wake Forest a favorite against Florida State. Nothing against Wake Forest, who are a solid team and well coached. But the Seminoles are the more athletic and talented team. I like both of Florida State's QB's, Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton. The Demon Deacons' 2-0 record should be looked at skeptically since it came against Norfolk State and Old Dominion.
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| 09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
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Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home. Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far. If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.
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| 09-18-21 | Boston College v. Temple +15 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
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Temple can hang here given the season-ending wrist injury to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec. Boston College beat UMass, 45-28, last week behind senior QB Dennis Grosel, who is a big step down from Jurkovec, a pro prospect. Temple is better than UMass and will be playing its home opener here. Boston College is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Owls were hammered, 61-14, by improved Rutgers. But that score was misleading. Rutgers only outgained Tempe by 104 yards. Temple came back from that loss to down Akron, 45-24, as a 6 1/2-point road favorite.
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| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
| 10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
| 10-14-21 | Stars v. Rangers -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
| 10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
| 10-13-21 | Rangers +115 v. Capitals | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
| 10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
| 10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
| 10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
| 10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
| 10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
| 10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
| 10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
| 10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
| 10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show |
| 10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show | |
| 10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
| 10-10-21 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
| 10-10-21 | Titans v. Jaguars +4.5 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
| 10-09-21 | New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
| 10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
| 10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
| 10-09-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5 | 35-25 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
| 10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
| 10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks +10 v. Winnipeg | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
| 10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
| 10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
| 10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
| 10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
| 10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
| 10-06-21 | Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
| 10-06-21 | Ottawa v. Toronto -8.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
| 10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
| 10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
| 10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
| 10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 33 m | Show | |
| 10-03-21 | Texans v. Bills -16.5 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 65 h 32 m | Show | |
| 10-03-21 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 42 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show | |
| 10-03-21 | Sun -3.5 v. Sky | 83-86 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Washington v. Oregon State -123 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
| 10-02-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Mets +113 v. Braves | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50 | 36-12 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary +2.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Reds -154 v. Pirates | 6-8 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64 | 29-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 13 m | Show | |
| 10-02-21 | Cincinnati -126 v. Notre Dame | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 44 m | Show | |
| 10-01-21 | Rockies -117 v. Diamondbacks | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
| 10-01-21 | Indians -116 v. Rangers | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
| 10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
| 09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
| 09-30-21 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
| 09-29-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
| 09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
| 09-29-21 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
| 09-28-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
| 09-28-21 | Rays v. Astros -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
| 09-28-21 | Phillies v. Braves -114 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
| 09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
| 09-27-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +150 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
| 09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44 | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 2 m | Show | |
| 09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5 | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
| 09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
| 09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills -7 | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
| 09-25-21 | Tennessee +20 v. Florida | 14-38 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
| 09-25-21 | Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
| 09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
| 09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
| 09-25-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. Wisconsin | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
| 09-24-21 | Mets v. Brewers -130 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
| 09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
| 09-24-21 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 48.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
| 09-23-21 | Liberty v. Mercury -9 | 82-83 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
| 09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
| 09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
| 09-23-21 | Giants -102 v. Padres | 6-7 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
| 09-22-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
| 09-22-21 | Twins v. Cubs +106 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
| 09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
| 09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 11 m | Show |
| 09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 140 h 29 m | Show | |
| 09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Patriots -5.5 v. Jets | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 94 h 39 m | Show | |
| 09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 15 m | Show |
| 09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 93 h 13 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Mariners +101 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Georgia Southern +24 v. Arkansas | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 53 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Florida State +5 v. Wake Forest | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
| 09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
| 09-18-21 | Boston College v. Temple +15 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 58 m | Show | |
