Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential.

The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points.

The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season.

Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective.

The Colts haven't won a season opener in 10 years. Don't look for that streak to end this year against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars established themselves as a Super Bowl contender going 8-3 down the stretch while beating the Chargers in the postseason before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Jacksonville should be even better this season. Trevor Lawrence improves each season and he has an upgrade in weapons with Calvin Ridley, a top-15 wide receiver, and good-looking rookie running back Tank Bisby for short-yardage situations.

I'm not an Anthony Richardson-backer - at least at this embryonic stage of his NFL career. He's not ready to be an NFL starter. He made only 13 starts at Florida and was very inaccurate. His 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 SEC starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars are not stupid. They'll be aware of his mobility and running ability.

Making matters more difficult for Richardson is he doesn't have stud runner Jonathan Taylor to take the pressure off.

The Jaguars enter this season extremely confident. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is ultra-aggressive. He's not the type to let up with a lead, which is what you're looking for in a favorite.

Never mind the quarterbacks. It's the strong rushing attacks, California's weak defense and fast pace from both teams that will get this game to go Over.

Auburn rushed for 289 yards and six TD's in a 59-14 win against UMass last week. Sure UMass isn't very good. But the Tigers looked great running the ball behind an upgraded offensive line. Cal has a weak defensive line, not good at stopping the run nor pressuring the quarterback.

The Golden Bears rushed for 357 and six TD's in their 58-21 opening week road victory against North Texas. That total went Over by 26 points. Jaydn Ott gives Cal one of the best running backs on the West Coast.

Cal's high-scoring wasn't a fluke. The Bears brought in Jake Spavital to be their new offensive coordinator. His style is to play fast. Auburn gave up five yards per rush attempt to UMASS, which was its average last season. So Cal and Ott should find success on the ground again.

The Tigers play up-tempo, too, under their first-year head coach Hugh Freeze, who has an outstanding reputation for building high-octane offenses.

Neither team was sharp in their openers last week.

Arizona State managed only three points during the second half in its 24-21 win against FCS foe Southern Utah. The Sun Devils were 34 1/2-point favorites.

The Sun Devils are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Jaden Rashada. His task and learning curve are going to be far more difficult this week. ASU's offensive line is a weakness after losing key linemen in the transfer portal and a projected starter going down with an injury. Oklahoma State has a big and physical defensive front seven. The Cowboys had five sacks in their opener.

The Cowboys were not impressive, either, in their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas last week. Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is using a three-player committee at quarterback. That's not a good sign.

The teams met at Oklahoma City last year and the Cowboys won, 34-17. Arizona State is better on defense this season.

Rutgers beat a horrible, rudderless Northwestern team, 24-7, last week. Apparently the oddsmaker thinks that's a big deal judging by how many points the Scarlet Knights are favored by here.

Let's not forget Rutgers losing eight of its last nine games last year, including getting blown out by Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland. 

Temple could surprise in the AAC with 16 returning starters. The Owls have one of the conference's better QB's in E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. 

The teams met last season. Rutgers was outgained by 58 yards, but managed to slip past the Owls, 16-14. 

The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 ATS off a double-digit point spread cover. 

This is a huge revenge spot for Wisconsin. The Badgers were stunned at home by Washington State last year, 17-14. That also was during the second week of the season. The Badgers, though, should have won. They outgained the Cougars by 148 yards and had a 38:02 to 21:58 advantage in time of possession. However, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals.

Don't look for the Badgers to be that sloppy again. They are focused, motivated and have upgraded their coaching going from conservative and stale Paul Chryst to Luke Fickell. Wisconsin also improved greatly at quarterback going from disappointing Graham Mertz to SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai, who threw 72 touchdown passes for the Mustangs in two seasons.

Cameron Ward had a huge game for Washington State leading the Cougars to a 50-24 win against Colorado State. The Cougars couldn't get a ground attack going, though, They ran the ball 37 times against the Rams and could average 2.4 yards per carry.

Unlike Washington State, the Badgers are balanced. They have one of the running back tandems in the country with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi.

Fat and happy after sweeping the Rangers in Texas, the Astros got whacked at home, 11-2, by the Padres on Friday.

I see this as a great bounce back spot for Houston. The Padres are one of the biggest underachievers in baseball. They are second only to the Royals in money lost by bettors.

This is an action play for me with a pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Seth Lugo, who has been pitching well but has faced weak-hitting opponents during his last three starts.

The Astros rank fifth in runs scored, while the unclutch Padres are 17th in runs and 23rd in batting average.

I'm not impressed with either team's quarterback situation. I do respect both team's defenses, though. Tempo is important, too. Each team plays slow. So I find this total too high.

Middle Tennessee State has four starters back on a defense that ranked fourth-best in the red zone. Missouri still hasn't fully settled on a quarterback between Brady Cook and Sam Horn. They have one of the weakest quarterback situations in the SEC.

Missouri has a strong defensive front. I don't see the Blue Raiders, which lost a lot of offense from last year, being able to run successfully on the Tigers, nor is QB Nicholas Vattiato going to hurt them through the air.

The Blue Raiders were held to just seven points and 3.5 yards per play by Alabama in their opener. Now they face another tough SEC defense.

The Rockies are playing a lot of young, untested players, have trouble hitting away from Coors Field and are facing a lefty. That's all bad for their offense.

The Giants also are facing a southpaw. They are well below average against lefties ranking second-from-the bottom in slugging percentage and 28th in OPS. That's good news for Colorado's lefty starter Ty Blach, a former Giant. He's pitched well in three of his last five starts.

San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in five of its last six games. The Giants have scored two or fewer runs in four of those games.

Good looking rookie southpaw Kyle Harrison, one of the team's top prospects, gets the call for the Giants. The Rockies have never faced him. Harrison held the Reds to no runs on three hits and had 11 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings during his last home start.

The Rockies are batting .229 in road games, the fourth-lowest away batting average. They also have the second-lowest OPS versus lefties and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Desperation versus exhaustion should spell a win and cover for host Ottawa.

The Redblacks are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost five in a row with three of those defeats coming by a combined seven points. They have double revenge against Hamilton and fully realize this is their last week at getting an opponent that has a losing record. The rest of Ottawa's schedule is against foes that currently all have winning records.

There should not be any excuse for the Redblacks because this is a golden spot for them. They were idle last week, while the Tiger-Cats are on a very short week having played rival Toronto this past Monday. The Tiger-Cats went all out trying to come back from a 17-0 deficit before losing to the Argonauts, 41-28.

Hamilton gives up the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5 while ranking third-from-the-bottom in total defensive yards.

Ottawa dual threat Dustin Crum is a good enough quarterback to take advantage.

Judging by this low line, the oddsmaker still hasn't fully grasped that the Orioles have the second-best record in baseball behind only the Braves. They also have the top road record in the American League at 46-25.

Baltimore has won five in a row. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 games. The Red Sox have lost 17 more games than the Orioles.

The Orioles have the better starter going with Kyle Bradish facing Tanner Houck.

Yet the Orioles are only a small favorite. Well, I certainly don't mind laying this low of a price with the superior team especially with an edge in starting pitchers.

Bradish is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during his last five starts.

Houck is 4-8 on the season with a 5.07 ERA. His home ERA on the year is 5.40.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

Two major reasons why I like the Under in this matchup: Cubs starter Javier Assad and the weather, primarily the wind. It's going to be blowing in at 10-15 mph.

Assad has been fantastic in going 3-2 with a 2.69 ERA in seven starts. He's been super sharp in his last three starts with a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The key Cubs' relievers are rested, including closer Adbert Alzolay.

Arizona scored 12 runs on the hapless Rockies at home yesterday. Previously to that, however, the Diamondbacks had averaged 2.8 runs in their last eight games. Arizona also might be without dynamic rookie Corbin Carroll, who left Wednesday's game with a bruised wrist after being hit by a pitch.

Ryne Nelson gets the start for Arizona. He's been respectable on the road with a 4-2 record and 3.30 ERA.

Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore.

The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season.

Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage.

Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Down Joe Musgrave and Yu Darvish, the Padres are forced to turn to Pedro Avila today against the hot-hitting Phillies. Avila has given up seven earned runs in his last three appearances spanning only eight innings.

Philadelphia is averaging 7.1 runs in its last 17 games!

San Diego should contribute to this Over, too. The Padres have been good for at least four runs in nine of their last 10 games. They get to face a cold Michael Lorenzen, who has permitted 13 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. During these last 15 innings, Lorenzen has been tagged for 24 hits and walked six.

Why the Rockies?

Arizona rookie Brandon Pfaadt that's why. He's getting the start today. Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA. Because the Diamondbacks are ridiculously high favorites, I can back the visiting Rockies getting 1 1/2 runs on the run line at a small lay price. 

Lefty Kyle Freeland hasn't been very good for Colorado at 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA. But I prefer him against Pfaadt. Freeland isn't pitching at Coors Field and he's stepping down in class after getting shelled by the powerful Braves during his last start.

The Braves are the best hitting team against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-nine versus southpaws in slugging percentage and OPS. 
Arizona would be 5-8 in its last 13 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. 

Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors.

The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field.

Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory.

Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA.

The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals.

Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.

The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury.

Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl.

This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day.

Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season.

Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game.

The Padres have been a monster disappointment this year. But they are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Giants.

Impressed? I'm not. The Giants are a struggling team and San Diego hasn't won four in a row all season.

I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus 43-year-old southpaw Rich Hill.

Walker is 14-5 with a 4.11 ERA. He has dominated the Padres in his career with a 4-3 mark, 2.51 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in eight career starts. The Padres are hitting just .178 against him.

Hill is 7-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 26 starts.

The Phillies are averaging 5.1 runs against lefties and rank sixth in slugging percentage against them.

Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season.

Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham are both out with injuries. Those are Phoenix's second and third-best players.

Minnesota is 18-19 and looking to clinch a playoff spot.

There may not be a better homefield pitcher than Zac Gallen. He's 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA this season when pitching in Arizona.

Gallen and the possibility of three power hitters being out are the reasons I like this total to go Under.

Baltimore could be minus Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle. Santander leads the Orioles in homers and RBI's. Mountcastle is third on the team in homers and RBI's. Mountcastle missed Saturday's game due to illness. Santander and Walker were removed from Saturday's game after each getting hit by a pitch.

Jack Flaherty gets the start for the Orioles. He's far from the ace he was with the Cardinals, but he's a veteran, savvy pitcher that should hold his own against an Arizona lineup that could be missing some starters.

They don't get the publicity of quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but Oregon State's D.J. Uiagalelei and San Jose State's Chevan Cordeiro are two of the better QB's in the country.

Cordeiro could be the best QB in the Mountain West. Uiagalelei couldn't live up to his potential at Clemson as the replacement for Trevor Lawrence, but figures to get coached up at Oregon State under head coach Jonathan Smith and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren.

Uiagalelei can rely upon an excellent offensive line and two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. San Jose State is down on defense from last season. The Spartans surrendered 56 points to USC last week.

San Jose State covered against the Trojans, though, by scoring 28 points. The Spartans averaged six yards per play. Cordeiro threw for three TD's. Just as important, the Spartans played at a fast pace.

Oregon State, like San Jose State, looks to be down defensively from last year.

The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games. 

Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days.

The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game. 

South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up.

So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. 

There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season.

South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense.

The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. 

I'm expecting more scoring than the oddsmaker is anticipating with both BC and Montreal off humiliating losses the previous week.

BC was hammered, 30-13, by Hamilton as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Lions have now surrendered an average of 38 points in their last three games if you discount the nine points they gave up to Calgary during this span.

Montreal is the fourth-highest scoring team in the CFL at 24.1 points per game. That average climbs to 27 if you go by the Alouettes' last six games. Montreal QB Cody Fajardo has weapons with running back William Stanback and Austin Mack, who leads the league in receiving yards.

The Alouettes, though, were just torched, 47-17, to Winnipeg. BC is the No. 1 passing team in the CFL behind QB Vernon Adams Jr., while ranking third in points and total yards. The Lions had scored at least 24 points in six of their past eight games until getting stunned by Hamilton.

Look for Adams and his host of excellent wide receivers to bounce back with a big-scoring performance.

Double-digit home 'dog with revenge is one reason I like Colorado State. Another is the coach. It took two years for Jay Norvell to build up Nevada.

The Rams went 3-9 in Norvell's first season last year. Expect big improvement this season. Colorado State's defense already is solid. The offense is bolstered having a year in Norvell's system and with nine key transfers.

Washington State may lack focus traveling and hearing about the breakup of the Pac-12 and where its own football future is.

The Cougars also have a vulnerable offensive line that Colorado State can stay competitive against.

The marketplace has reacted to the new starting quarterbacks at California and North Texas by betting this total down. The Over/Under is low enough where there's value on the Over now.

What's being overlooked here is tempo. It's going to be quicker than perceived with Jake Spavital brought in by Cal coach Justin Wilcox to be the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. Spavital has a well-earned reputation of developing QB's and speeding up a team's attack. This is good news for Sam Jackson V, a redshirt sophomore and TCU transfer who will be under center for the Golden Bears. He faces a North Texas defense that gave up 31.5 points a game and ranked 124th in total defense last season.

North Texas is going with dual threat Stone Earle as its starting QB. Reports out of spring camp was Earle had improved his passing accuracy. The Mean Green should play faster, too, with Eric Morris as their new head coach. Cal ranked 123rd in pass defense last year.

Wisconsin is going to have more of a balanced attack with new coach Luke Fickell bringing former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo on board. But the Badgers certainly are not going to lose their identity of being run-oriented with a strong defensive unit.

There's no reason for the Badgers to tip anything off about their offense against this non-conference opponent being nearly a 30-point favorite. 
The Badgers allowed 20.2 points and 303.5 yards per game, 27th-best in the nation, last season. Fickell is a defensive-minded coach. The Badgers return eight defensive starters. 

So I don't see Buffalo producing many points with their mediocre offense. But can the Bulls slow down Wisconsin? 

I believe they can. Senior linebacker Shaun Dolac led the nation with 97 solo tackles last season while safety Marcus Fuqua tied for the most interceptions with seven. 

Unless it's Bob Gibson versus Sandy Koufax, I'm going Over a total of less than nine in a Braves-Dodgers game. These are the two highest scoring teams in baseball.

Both teams are hot at the plate, too. The Braves are averaging 6.8 runs in their last eight games. The Dodgers also are averaging 6.8 runs during their last nine games.

Max Fried and Julio Urias, the two starting pitchers, aren't going to be able to slow these offenses down and the bullpens carry high fatigue ratings.

Fried is trying to get back to being 100 percent after being out three months with a left forearm strain. He has a 3.58 ERA in five starts since returning in August.

Urias isn't the pitcher of last season when he led the NL in ERA. He also missed time - six weeks because of a hamstring injury - and has a 4.41 ERA.

The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. 

Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. 

The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. 

The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. 

Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. 

I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game.
Miami of Ohio is a legitimate sleeper in the MAC. The RedHawks could have the best defense in their conference. They return 16 starts, including nine on defense.

The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year.
Miami will be satisfied with a victory. I don't see the blowout that this point spread projects.

Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games.

Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games.

The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle.

Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era.

Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent.

Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season.

Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent.

So look for a close game here.

The Braves not only have the best record in baseball, but they have one of the great offenses of modern times. Atlanta ranks No. 1 in nearly every major category, including runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Braves have seven players with 20 or more homers.

Colorado has one player with more than 15 homers.

So it's not a surprise the Braves have absolutely dominated the Rockies winning 12 of the past 13 games, including all six this season.

The setting is optimal for another huge Braves' scoring performance. They are playing at Coors Field and going against lefty Kyle Freeland. The Braves are batting .296 against southpaws. The next closest team is hitting .280. The Braves have a .534 slugging percentage versus lefties. The next closest team is at .479.

Plus Freeland sucks. He's 5-13 with a 5.00 ERA. That ERA goes up even more to 5.80 when you look at his lifetime ERA against the Braves in seven appearances. The Braves last saw Freeland on June 15. They got to him for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Darius Vines is set to make his major league debut for the Braves. He's a wild-card here. But the Braves are known for their wealth of young pitching talent. Vines had a 2.70 ERA in nine minor league starts since recovering from shoulder inflammation at the end of June.

The Rockies are bad and unmotivated, losers of eight of their last nine games. So even if Vines doesn't fare well - which I don't think will happen - the Braves' offense still should score a ton of runs to win by multiple runs.

The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in.

This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks.

Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory.

Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer.

Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season.

Stay away from Brewer and Cub hitters in daily fantasy today. Not only are two ace pitchers going - Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele - but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field at 18-to-20 mph.

The lefty Steele is 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and has a 1.18 WHIP. He's emerged into a star pitcher. The Brewers are a bottom-10 team against southpaw pitching. They average 3.3 runs against lefties.

Burnes isn't enjoying another Cy Young-caliber season, but he's still well above average. He has a 3.08 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.

The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen.

Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors.

One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings.

The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division.

The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs.

I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball.

So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner.

Phoenix is averaging 68.6 points in its last five games, all of which have gone Under.

I see another Under here.

The Mercury has a cluster injury problem in the backcourt. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, the team's second and third-leading scorers, are each questionable. Taurasi has missed the last two games with a toe injury. Cunningham suffered a jaw injury in Phoenix's last game two days ago. The Mercury are 1-15 on the road. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs. So there's no urgency for Taurasi and Cunningham to play.

Also the Mercury are without Shey Peddy, a guard who was part of their rotation.

Phoenix does have 6-foot-9 inch Brittney Griner back in the lineup. Although Griner is the Mercury's leading scorer, her presence is a plus for the Under because Phoenix has to play at a slow, plodding pace to accommodate her low-post presence.

Atlanta should be in a defensive mood. The Dream have lost three in a row, including blowing a late lead in an 83-80 loss to lowly Indiana this past Sunday. This marks the Dream's third game in five days so I don't see them playing up-tempo.

I don't get the love for Miami here. The Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are one game above .500. Tampa Bay is 80-52 and has won eight of its last 10 games.

Yet the Marlins are favored.

Is the pitching matchup so strong in Miami's favor?

No.

It's Aaron Civale and a rested Tampa Bay bullpen versus Sandy Alcantara.

This isn't last season when Alcantara captured the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.28 ERA. He's been pitching better, but he's not dominant like last year. He's 6-11 with a 4.16 ERA.

Civale is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Tampa Bay was idle on Monday.

The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent.

The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale.

Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP.

Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20.

Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA.

Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs.

Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game.

A strong case can be made either way that Las Vegas or New York is the best team in the WNBA. No other team in the league comes close to matching these superpowers.

The teams have split their four games. This is the final regular-season matchup between them and the deck is stacked against Las Vegas.

The Aces are a tired team playing for the fourth time in seven days and 11th in 22 days. It's the Aces' fourth consecutive road games. This is a very heavy schedule especially for the WNBA. It's made worse for the Aces because they lack depth and have been going with a short rotation due to starter Candace Parker being out.

Las Vegas hasn't practiced, nor even taken a shootaround during its previous two games in order to save its legs. A blowout loss to Washington as a 10-point favorite two days ago shows just how vulnerable the Aces are right now because of the heavy fatigue factor.

It's the wrong time for the Aces to meet the Liberty, who are peaking winning 18 of their last 21 games.

As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays.

The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees.

Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros.

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope.

Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts.

Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts.

Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games.

But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks.

Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night.

The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton.

Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards.

The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory.

Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division.

Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors.

San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles.

The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month.

This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs.

The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season.

Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter.

Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts.

Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs.

I'm not expecting 76 points to be scored like there were in Florida International's, 42-34 double overtime, home victory against Louisiana Tech last year.

But I do expect these teams to combine for more than 60 points.

Part of this is believing Florida International QB Grayson James has improved. James goes against a Louisiana Tech defense that was one of the worst in the country in 2022 ranking 128th in scoring defense and 127th in total defense. James should have time to pass and can rely on plenty of yards on the ground. The Bulldogs couldn't stop the run - ranking 130th - and didn't generate a pass rush.

Louisiana Tech certainly isn't favored because of its defense. The Bulldogs have a fast-tempo, high-powered offense operated by Boise State transfer QB Hank Bachmeier. He was hurt last year, but was very good two seasons ago.

The Bulldogs averaged 29 points last season in Sonny Cumbie's first season as head coach. They should improve on that number in Year 2 of Cumbie's ''Air Raid'' offense, especially going against such a weak defense here at home.

Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season.

San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards.

The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins.

The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided.

It's no surprise that both of the Raiders' preseason games have gone Over. Las Vegas has scored 34 points in each game beating the 49ers and Rams.

There's a possibility the Raiders will give starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo playing time. The key, though, to the Raiders helping this total go Over is rookie QB Aidan O'Connell. He's been fantastic during preseason going 26-for-36 for 304 yards and three TD's with no turnovers. O'Connell came from Purdue where he was well schooled by then Boilermakers coach and passing guru Jeff Brohm.

Dallas is giving up an average of 25 points in its two preseason games. The Cowboys are not playing starters. Their defense will be littered with reserves.

The Cowboys aren't likely to play their star offensive players. However, Cooper Rush is one of the better QB's and third-stringer Will Grier has a big arm. They are going against a vulnerable Raiders secondary that lacks depth.

So I see the Cowboys holding up their end of the scoring.

Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home.

The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense.

After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click.

Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board.

John Harbaugh cares about winning preseason games. Todd Bowles doesn't. I see Harbaugh wanting to win this matchup after Baltimore's record 24-game preseason win streak was halted by the Commanders, 29-28, on a last-minute 49-yard field goal.

Bowles is 8-13 as a head coach in preseason, including 1-4 with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is averaging just 15 points in two preseason games.

The Buccaneers have decided on Baker Mayfield to be their starting QB. So there's no more QB competition and nothing for the Bucs to show and tip their hand especially with a vulnerable offensive line against an aggressive Ravens pass rush.

The Ravens have a pair of veteran backup QB's in Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson, who was 10-of-12 for 145 yards and two TD passes against Washington last week compiling a 121.9 quarterback rating.

From top-to-bottom, the Bills are far superior to the Bears - and they want a good performance after last week. The Bills trailed Pittsburgh, 27-0, before losing, 27-15, to the Steelers last Saturday.

I'm expecting the Bills to play with more urgency. They have a strong QB rotation with Josh Allen backed up by veterans Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley.

The Bears have multiple injuries in their offensive line. They have two weeks to get well before the regular season. Bears coach Matt Eberflus isn't going to gamble on the health of Justin Fields and other key skill position parts of his offense on a patchwork offensive line. That means Chicago is likely to dole out the QB minutes to P.J. Walker, Nathan Peterman and rookie Tyson Bagent. Those stiffs are easy to fade.

Certain coaches don't care about preseason. The Chargers' Brandon Staley is one such fellow.

The Chargers' only victory during their last seven preseason games came against the Rams, whose coach, Sean McVay, cares even less about preseason than Staley.

This is a lot of points to lay in an exhibition game. But it's justified.

The 49ers are expected to play starters. They also have much better depth than the Chargers and a far stronger quarterback rotation with Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold and Trey Lance.

The Chargers can't risk an injury to Justin Herbert, or any of their other stars, because they are so thin with a major talent dropoff from starters to reserves.

That means LA will be going with a quarterback rotation of Easton Stick and seventh-round rookie draft choice Max Dugan.

The 49ers are home and have fierce competition in their secondary that needs to be sorted out. They'll also want to showcase Lance so they'll be doing all they can to make him and their offense look good.

Who's the hottest team in the WNBA? It's Los Angeles if you go by point spreads. The Sparks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with five straight outright victories.

The Sparks have gotten healthy and their lineup has stabilized because of it. That's been a key in their winning streak. They also have an excellent coach in Curt Miller.

Just two games ago, the Sparks upset the Aces, 78-72, in Las Vegas. The Dream just lost to the Aces, 112-100, at home this past Tuesday. Atlanta is regressing after showing signs of peaking going 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games.

The Dream aren't expected to have star guard Allisha Gray again. She missed Atlanta's game against the Aces due to an ankle injury. Also out for Atlanta is Nia Coffey, the Dream's third-leading rebounder and fifth-leading scorer.

Two of the more underrated pitchers in the American League are Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee and Toronto's nine-year veteran Chris Bassitt. They face each other here and the oddsmaker has set the total too high overlooking just how effective these two pitchers have been.

Bibee has been getting better, not worse. He's 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past 11 outings. One of these starts came against the Blue Jays on August 8. Bibee held the Blue Jays scoreless for seven innings in a 1-0 victory. He allowed six hits with no walks and six strikeouts.

Bassitt has been excellent at home compiling a 6-2 mark with a 2.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in a dozen home starts for the Blue Jays this season.

Bassitt draws a weak-hitting Guardians squad that ranks last in homers and 28th in runs. Cleveland is averaging just 2.6 runs per game in its last seven games if you discount an eight-run performance against the Dodgers.

It's well noted that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as Steelers head coach. It's not so well known that Tomlin also has a great record in preseason. Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 preseason games.

The Steelers have looked impressive again this preseason. They are 2-0, scoring 27 points in each of their victories against the Buccaneers and Bills while holding those two foes to an average of 16 points.

Pittsburgh has unleashed an aggressive passing attack that has worked well. Kenny Pickett has led the Steelers to three touchdown drives of longer than 25 yards. The Steelers have a much better QB rotation than Atlanta and are the deeper team across the board. Pittsburgh backup QB Mitch Trubisky is arguably better than Atlanta starting QB Desmond Ridder. He certainly has more experience mobility. Mason Rudolph is a plus as far as third-string QB's go when it comes to preseason.

The Falcons had 13 penalties for 102 yards during their 13-13 lackluster home tie with the Bengals last week. Falcons coach Arthur Smith wouldn't commit to playing any of his starters against the Steelers after using his starters against Cincinnati.

Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York.

The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64.

New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games.

The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas.

New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday.

Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season.

Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP.

The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average.

The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season.

On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito.

Reality is different.

The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team.

Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games.

Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers.

Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days.

Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA.

The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record.

He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck.

Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be.

Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts.

The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road.

Chicago can't take a home loss here to the lowly 10-22 Storm. The Sky are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the season winding down.

The Sky are in stop-the-pain mode after a 79-73 home loss to Connecticut two days ago. Chicago was only 3 of 21 from 3-point range in that game.

The Sky should shoot much better against this much weaker defensive opponent. The Storm have the league's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, but are the worst-shooting team in the WNBA.

Both teams are playing for the third time in five days. Chicago, however, has been home for the past four days, while this is Seattle's third different venue in five days.

After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night.

As well as they should.

The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth.

I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position.

San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings.

That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games.

In the wacky world of preseason football what counts heavily are the quality of backup quarterbacks and how serious the head coach is about wanting to win the game.

We have clear indications in this matchup - and they point to a Saints victory and likely cover.

New Orleans coach Dennis Allen isn't afraid to go with his regulars. Both Derek Carr and second-string Jameis Winston played opening week for the Saints. The Saints beat the Chiefs, 26-24, with Carr and Winston each leading a TD drive. Carr and Winston, who could be the best backup QB in the NFL, are expected to play again today. Allen wants to build momentum after New Orleans went a dismal 7-10 in his first year as its head coach last season.

Look for Alvin Kamara to get touches, too. Kamara is suspended for the first three games. So Allen needs to get him reps.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley has an opposite approach about preseason - and for good reason. The Chargers have great starting talent, but are thin depth-wise. They can't afford injuries, which they were hit with last season. So Staley is likely to use his second and third-stringers throughout the game. That includes undistinguished reserve QB's Easton Stick and Max Duggan.

Staley's preseason record is 2-5. The Chargers went 0-3 SU and ATS in preseason last year, losing by an average of 12.6 points. If there's one coach who cares even less about winning during preseason than Staley it's Sean McVay and the Rams. The Chargers happened to play the Rams last week in their opener and won, 34-17.

But the oddsmakers know the real story. That's why they made the Saints more than a field goal road favorite here.

The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home.

Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest.

The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range.

Most NFL teams have decided on their starting quarterback. Not the Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield is being pressed by Kyle Trask, who has fit in well while operating new Buccaneers' offensive coordinator Dave Canales' style that features a lot of bootlegs and rollouts.

Both Mayfield and Trask are going to see plenty of action against the Jets, who don't figure to be playing many of their defensive starters for too long if at all. The two Tampa Bay quarterbacks held their own during joint practices against the Jets this week. So they will be ready.

John Wolford isn't bad as far as third-stringers go. So the Buccaneers should produce their share of points.

So should the Jets - and this is assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play. It's an unexpected, added bonus if he does.

Zach Wilson should get the majority of quarterback reps for New York. Wilson has much to prove. Rodgers has helped coach him up to the point where Wilson is effective against second and third-string defenses, which he should find here.

The Jets are deep at running back and wide receiver. Veteran third-string QB Tim Boyle also is capable of moving an offense against backups.

The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread.

The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game.

Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces.

Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74.

That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high.

This total has come down a little since Winnipeg won't have starting QB Zach Collaros, who has a neck injury. I find the Over/Under too low, though. The Blue Bombers lead the CFL in yards gained per game and are No. 2 in the league in scoring at 30.9 points. They have a very capable backup QB in Dru Brown.

Brown threw for 307 yards and four TD's to lead Winnipeg past Edmonton, 38-29, on the road last week. It was the fifth time in their last six road games the Blue Bombers went Over the total.

Calgary has permitted 24 or more points in six of its last seven games. The Stampeders just gave up 320 passing yards in a 37-9 loss to BC this past Saturday. BC averages five fewer points per game than Winnipeg. I expect the Blue Bombers to produce plenty of points here.

The key is if Calgary can keep up with Winnipeg's point production.

Stampeders QB Jake Maier is inconsistent. But he has weapons with running backs Ka'Deem Carey and Dedrick Mills and receivers Reggie Begelton and Tre Odoms-Dukes. It's promising for the Stampeders that the Blue Bombers surrendered 29 points to a 1-9 Edmonton team last week after the Elks had been shut out by BC in their previous game.

I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Prize rookie QB Bryce Young is going to play just like he did during Week 1 of the preseason last week. That's a good thing for the Giants. Young and the youthful Panthers in their first year under Frank Reich looked terrible in a 27-0 loss to the Jets this past Saturday.

I don't expect the Panthers, traveling on a short week with a makeshift offensive line, to fare much better this week.

Not only are the Giants home, but have had an extra day having played last Friday. They are off a 21-16 road loss to the Lions. New York led 13-3 at halftime. The Lions pulled the game out by scoring a TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants had built a 13-3 halftime lead. However, that lead was cut to 13-11 when the Giants surrendered a 95-yard punt return TD.

Young played three series for the Panthers last week. Carolina produced a meager 16 yards during that time. Second-year Carolina QB Matt Corral, who missed his rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury last August, is equally inexperienced. He, too, didn't play well against the Jets getting sacked four times and throwing an interception.

Carolina's QB game plan is expected to be the same - play Young for a few series and then go with Corral for the rest of the game. They are behind a very much work in progress Carolina offensive line.

I not only like the Giants' defense - which allowed only one TD drive to the Lions last week - better than Carolina's offense, but also New York's QB rotation of veteran Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. The Giants have a lot of competition and unsettled spots at wide receiver, so they should be on the attack.

The Panthers' reserve defenders gave up 14 points to the Jets' third-string offense in the fourth quarter.

Corbin Burnes has been back on track for the last month and a half. He's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings spanning his past eight starts. Burnes has earned trust to hold the powerful Dodgers in check.

But can an Under work when Lance Lynn is the opposing pitcher?

Probably not when Lynn was pitching for the White Sox. But Lynn has been dominant since coming to the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts. He has a strong history, too, versus the Brewers going 11-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings that spans 21 appearances, including 17 starts.

Lynn is not facing a very good offensive team. Milwaukee is well below average - 22nd in runs, 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Brewers are having problems scoring in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium managing only three runs during the first two games of this series.

These teams just met two days ago in Las Vegas for the Commissioner's Cup, an honorary game that didn't count in the standings. I thought it would be a loose game between the league's two-highest scoring teams. So I went with the Over.

Wrong.

New York destroyed Las Vegas, 82-63. The game went Under by 33 points.

Live and learn. I'm confidently going Under in the rematch.

The Liberty have held the Aces to an average of 62 points - 32 points below the Aces' league-leading 94 points a game - in two games during the last 11 days.

It's more than just the Aces being cold from the floor and superstar center A'ja Wilson getting bottled up in the paint. The Liberty are exploiting the offensive inefficiency of Aces center Kiah Stokes, who has replaced injured Candace Parker. Stokes is strictly a defensive player. She has no offensive game. That allowed the Liberty to fully concentrate on Las Vegas' four other starters, including double-teams on Wilson.

The Aces' one weakness is lack of depth. The Liberty are perhaps the only team in the league that can exploit that. New York's bench outscored Las Vegas' reserves by 20 points in Tuesday's game.

The Liberty's 95.3 defensive rating during the last seven games is the second-best in the league.

The Aces have the best defensive rating in the WNBA. But Aces coach Becky Hammon wasn't pleased with her team's defense in Tuesday's loss.

Expect the Aces - in double revenge mode and after suffering their first home loss of the season - to come out highly motivated, playing strong defense. There should be a playoff intensity to this game, which translates to tough defense.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor.

It does.

The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field.

The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average.

The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them.

The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs.

Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable.

The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league.

These are the two highest scoring teams in the league. New York averages 88.5 points. That scoring average goes up to 96 points if you count just the last three games. Las Vegas is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring at 94 points and also No. 1 in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage.

If the two teams just hit their scoring average the total easily goes Over.

I'm expecting the final score will go Over. These are the two superpowers of the league. This game will draw extra attention because it's the annual Commissioner's Cup. Players from the winning team earn $30,000 with the MVP getting an extra $5,000. These players don't make NBA-type salaries. That money is a big incentive for them. The pride of being named MVP for the game should spur the three superstars competing - A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu - into big scoring games.

And here's the kicker: The game does not count in the standings. So basically it's an exhibition, which should have an All-Star Game offensive-type flavor to it.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home.

The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers.

Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame.

The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested.

The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games.

Being able to stop the run and run the ball effectively with a mobile quarterback is a strong combination when taking double-digits on the road against an overrated opponent.

That's how I see things in backing the Ottawa Redblacks against Toronto.

The Redblacks are No. 1 in the CFL both in rushing and run defense. Ottawa's QB Denny Crum has given the team a huge lift with his exciting play since taking over from injured Jeremiah Masoli. Crum averages 8.5 yards per carry, highest in the CFL. Crum should present a strong dual threat as Toronto ranks eighth out of nine teams in the league in pass defense.

Only once have the Redblacks lost by double-digits. They are capable of springing a major upset like they did against Winnipeg, also as a double-digit 'dog. The Redblacks defeated Calgary three weeks ago, too.

Calgary upset Toronto last week. That loss looks worse now for the Argonauts after BC thrashed Calgary, 37-9, last night.

That was the Argos' first loss of the season. They are 6-1 and have played only two above .500 opponents. The Argos rank sixth in total yards and yards allowed. That's below average.

Toronto will have Chad Kelly at quarterback. Kelly suffered an ankle injury last week, but has been cleared to play. However, Kelly - like Crum - relies on mobility and that mobility could be compromised by his ankle injury. Toronto also is banged-up on defense.

Both teams rank among the three-worst in the WNBA. Phoenix and Seattle have been playing better, though.

Phoenix has won two in a row. However, those victories were achieved at home. The Mercury are 1-13 on the road. They also are 7-18-1 ATS following a win.

Seattle is in rebuild mode, but gets tremendous home fan support. The Storm are 4-2 in their last six games. They have covered in five of their past seven games.

The Storm pulled out a 68-67 upset home victory in their last game, coming from 16 points down to beat Atlanta this past Thursday. That should give them momentum and confidence.

Seattle should also have confidence against this opponent having just defeated the Mercury in Phoenix eight days ago, 97-91.

With this number coming down, I'm going to get involved in the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs.

Angels rookie starter Chase Silseth is pitching better than his metrics show. He's been lucky and is due for regression. The Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the league during the past nine days.

The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs during the past 2 1/2 months, which is the highest in the American League.

The Angels should do their share of damage against a rusty Jose Urquidy, who has a 6.20 ERA. This is just his second start since April. The Angels have averaged nearly five runs since the beginning of June.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

Two below-the-radar pitchers go at it here. The Cardinals are going with Steven Matz. KC is starting Cole Ragans.

Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last six starts. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 28th in runs. He also won't have to deal with injured leadoff hitter Maikel Garcia, who is hitting .304 in his last 35 games.

Ragans has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals since coming from the Rangers. He has a 1.02 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings with the Royals.

The oddsmaker is not showing these pitchers enough respect with this high of a total.

I don't see Calgary doing much damage against a BC defense that ranks No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. The visiting Stampeders have some respect on this line after upsetting Toronto last week. But Calgary caught Toronto when the Argos were flat and lost their QB, Chad Kelly, to injury during the game.

BC isn't going to lack motivation after suffering a 50-14 blowout road loss to Winnipeg last week. The Lions have starting QB Vernon Adams back from injury now.

The Lions are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. They've covered six straight home games going back to last season.

The teams met opening week in Calgary and BC won, 25-15. I see another double-digit win for the Lions here.

Bet against Sean McDermott and his Bills during preseason at your own peril. The Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 preseason games. 

Yet the Colts are road favorites. That's way too much respect just because the Colts have announced that rookie QB Anthony Richardson will start. 
Richardson is as raw as they come. 

Josh Allen is not likely to play. But I like Buffalo's backup QB's - Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley - more than Richardson. Allen and Barkley are veterans who can produce against reserve defenders in a vanilla scheme.    

This is the largest point spread on the NFL Week 1 preseason card. I don't think it's justified.

Yes, Russell Wilson is going to start. But so is Colt McCoy, who will be the Cardinals' starting QB this season with Kyler Murray out.

I don't like McCoy, but he's fine during preseason being a veteran and going against reserve defenders.

Wilson is off his worst season ever. Now he's making another transition with Sean Payton taking over. The Broncos' offense is going to be a work-in-progress especially this being their first game of preseason.

McCoy's backup QB's are dual threat rookie Clayton Tune, who has looked good in camp, and veterans Jeff Driskell and David Blough.

The Broncos have backup QB's Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Stidham is one of the better second-string QB's, but DiNucci has failed to distinguish himself while being a third-to-fourth string QB for the Cowboys the previous three years.

New Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon would like to make a good early impression on the home crowd while building momentum. So he wants a victory here.

Not only do the Browns have home field. But they have the advantage of already having played a game, beating the Jets in the Hall of Fame game last week.

Cleveland also holds a QB edge. DeShaun Watson is expected to start and play several series. Watson will be looking to atone for his disappointing first season with the Browns last year.

Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson also should get snaps for the Browns. He was instrumental in the Browns upsetting the Jets last week with his dual threat passing and 36 yards rushing on six carries.

Sam Howell is expected to start for Washington. Perhaps veteran backup Jacoby Brissett might play, too, for Washington. However, the Commanders have a horrible third-string QB in Jake Fromm.

The Commanders have had plenty of distractions during training camp with new ownership and players complaining about the toughness of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. They aren't going to be as ready to play as the Browns.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

These non-conference opponents actually have some familiarity with each other. They had joint practices and scrimmages this week. It was the Bengals defense that dominated the action. 

Yet the Packers are solid road favorites here because Jordan Love may get a series or two while Joe Burrow and the Bengals starters won't play. 

So what.

That doesn't justify this line. It's the Bengals who have the stronger backup quarterback situation. NFL veteran Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning will be under center for Cincinnati. Green Bay's backup QB's are fifth-round rookie Sean Clifford and Alex McGough of the USFL, who was waived five times by NFL teams. Siemian may get extensive playing time with the chance Burrow isn't ready to start the season. 

It's not like Matt LaFleur places any special emphasis on winning preseason games. Green Bay is 1-5 the past two years in preseason. 

Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. 
The Dream are a couple of tiers ahead of Seattle and should cover against the Storm. 

Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here. 
9
The Storm just played two days ago. They are close to being a one-person scoring show with Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's top scorer. Loyd averages 11 more points than the second-highest scoring Seattle player. Loyd had an off-shooting night and the Storm lost at home to the Sun by 12 points this past Tuesday.

Atlanta has been idle since dispatching Indiana by nine points at home this past Sunday. The Dream defeated the Storm, 85-75, in Atlanta when the teams last met on July 12 for the first time this season. Loyd didn't play in that game, but Williams did. 

Winnipeg could come close to covering the Over just by itself. The Blue Bombers are averaging 30 points and rank No. 1 in total yards and passing yards Edmonton gives up the most total yards and rushing yards. The Elks give up the second-most points per game, too, at 26.5.

The Blue Bombers just produced 50 points against BC last week. The Lions had the best defense in the league entering that matchup. So I don't see how the Elks can keep Winnipeg from piling on points. Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros leads the CFL in TD passes. He has four excellent receivers.

The key is how many points can the Elks put up? I believe they will contribute to this total going Over. They made a QB switch to dual threat Tre Ford and had a bye last week. Look for the Elks to show more on offense now.

This is what Ford said, "I like our offensive scheme going into this week. I feel like we've done really well in practice just executing the plays and moving the ball. Offensively, I feel like we're looking pretty strong right now. It's super exciting. ..."

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.

I see this as a huge bounce back spot for Las Vegas. The Aces were held to a season-low in points by New York in their last game this past Sunday, losing 99-61. 

Despite that low scoring output, Las Vegas easily leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.1 points. Dallas is No. 3 in scoring at 86.2 points.

The Wings just surrendered 104 points twice in home losses to Chicago during their last two games. That was 23 points above the Sky's season scoring average. 

Both the Aces and Wings like to push pace. So I see an up-tempo matchup here. The Aces have gone Over in 14 of their last 19 road games. 

The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces.

I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago.

The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points.

The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points.

Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season.

The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games.

The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover.

LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game.

Anytime there's a double-digit total on the Royals, my first look is to the Under.

It's my last look, too, for this matchup as I don't see the Red Sox and Royals reaching 10 runs in this game.

Kansas City ranks second-to-last in the league in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. The Royals are likely to be without their star power-hitting catcher Salvador Perez. He was pulled from Sunday's game suffering a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch. Perez is second on the Royals in homers and RBI's.

That's good news for Boston starter Brayan Bello, who leads the Red Sox in victories. Bello is 8-6 with a 3.79 ERA. That ERA goes down to 3.29 when he pitches at home and shrinks to 2.82 when he pitches at night.

Lefty Cole Ragans draws the start for Kansas City. He's 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA, but is below-the-radar with his current form. He's given up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Ragans has struck out 11 during this 11-inning span.

The Red Sox rank slightly below average against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS.

The wind will be blowing in at seven mph, another plus for the Under.

Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams.

Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3.

Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it.

Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA.

The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. 
Let's start with the obvious. Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 70-39. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. 

The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. 

The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido.

Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. 

Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. 
The Braves rank either first or second in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Pirates rank among the bottom-seven in those major offensive categories. 

Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. 

Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. 

Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers.

Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right?

Not so fast.

Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors.

Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one.

Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire.

The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend.

The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs.

Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching.

This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed.