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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-04-20	Wings +6.5 v. Sky		79-82	Win	100	4 h 20 m	Show
The Wings need to prove they can beat a good team. This is their chance. Chicago is much improved. But the Sky could be a little flat after an emotional, 88-86, victory against defending WNBA champion Washington in their last game this past Saturday. The Sky are 7-18 ATS the past 25 times when playing on two days rest.
08-04-20	Mavs -6 v. Kings		114-110	Loss	-110	11 h 2 m	Show
A combination of horrendous defense and Luke Walton's coaching shortcomings have contributed to the Kings going 0-2 in the bubble. Sacramento has lost 129-120 to the Spurs and 132-116 to the Magic. Both of those opponents shot better than 52 percent from the floor. Dallas also is seeking its first win in the Orlando bubble. The Mavericks fell to the Rockets and were surprised by the Suns. Even though the Mavericks are all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, their 0-2 mark doesn't sit well with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle. So both teams should have a sense of urgency for this matchup. I don't just see the Mavericks being a level higher than the Kings, but two levels higher. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league. There is no chance of the Kings slowing down Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Those are easily the two best players on the court. Carlisle also is a far superior coach to Walton. The Kings surrendered 132 points to Orlando. It's scary to think how many points the Mavericks can put up on them.
08-03-20	Blackhawks v. Oilers OVER 6		3-6	Win	100	13 h 59 m	Show
I thought we would see at least a 6 1/2 total after 10 goals were scored in the Blackhawks' 6-4 opening game win on Saturday. I liked the Over very much in that game. I see no reason to change especially with the oddsmaker stubbornly sticking with an opening total of 6 minus juice to the Over. The Blackhawks launched 42 shots on goal in that game. The Blackhawks win with offense so they are not going to change their aggressive style. The Oilers were not sharp defensively. Edmonton also is likely to switch goalies going from veteran Mike Smith to Mikko Koskinen, who has never started a playoff game. I expect the Oilers to come out firing, too. They have the two leading point-scorers in the league, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who has looked fresh and frisky coming off the long layoff. The Over has won six of the past seven times the teams have met in Edmonton.
08-03-20	Blackhawks v. Oilers -125		3-6	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
I like Connor McDavid and the Oilers to get revenge after losing, 6-4, in the first game of the series this past Saturday. The Blackhawks hit the Oilers with a quick four-goal first period punch. The Oilers will be more prepared this time around. The Oilers are the superior team and have motivation. McDavid produced three points in the first game and is the best player on the ice. The Blackhawks are 8-24 when playing on one day's rest.
08-03-20	Phillies v. Yankees -1.5	Top	3-6	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run.
08-03-20	Grizzlies +4.5 v. Pelicans		99-109	Loss	-106	16 h 36 m	Show
I'm expecting an intense matchup here as both teams are 0-2 in the reboot and fighting for a playoff spot. So I'll take the points. Yes, the Grizzlies played Sunday against the Spurs, losing 108-106 on two free throws at the end. Memphis also fell in overtime to Portland. This marks their third game in four days and second in two days. Perhaps that's why this line is inflated in my view. But the Grizzlies are a young team and have fresh legs following the long layoff. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor this early in the Orlando bubble. The Grizzlies actually have excelled in this situation covering seven of the past eight times they played without rest. The Pelicans have loads of talent. But they commit too many turnovers, lack defense, are not well coached and Zion Williamson has had his minutes reduced. Williamson has played just 15 and 14 minutes during the Pelicans' first two games of the resumed season. Not only is this good from an opposition standpoint, but Williamson's lack of playing time has kept New Orleans from finding its rhythm after the long break.
08-02-20	Wild v. Canucks OVER 5.5		3-0	Loss	-102	12 h 30 m	Show
This total is short. The average road game for each team averaged more than six goals per game. Neither team has stellar goaltending. Vancouver has really pumped up its offense. The Canucks own the league's fourth best power play percentage and rank in the top 8 in scoring. The Over has cashed in nine of Vancouver's last 11 games. Minnesota's defense is down this season. The Wild, though, have averaged 3.6 goals during their past 21 games. So it's totally reasonable to expect at least six goals in this matchup.
08-02-20	Mavs -5.5 v. Suns	Top	115-117	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
08-02-20	Astros -123 v. Angels		6-5	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
Houston is 62-30 in its last 92 games. The Angels are 19-43 during their past 62 games. The Astros are much superior. More so since the Angels will be without underrated injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons and possibly superstar Mike Trout for another game. Trout didn't play on Saturday after his wife gave birth. He might not play today either since the Angels are idle on Monday. Houston has beaten LA 20 of the last 28 times on the road. So why such a low line? Is it because the Angels hold a starting pitching edge? No, I can't say that in a pitching matchup of Josh James versus Shohei Ohtani. James can get wild, but he is a big strikeout pitcher with a 2.57 career ERA versus the Angels in 10 appearances. He has a high upside. The Angels lose Ohtani's bat at the DH spot because he'll be on the mound. Ohtani is on the comeback trail. He looked terrible in his first start, which came last Sunday against the A's. Ohtani faced six batters. He gave up three hits and three walks. His career ERA in two starts against the powerful Astros is 7.04.
08-02-20	Padres v. Rockies +113		6-9	Win	113	7 h 32 m	Show
Yes, I think the Padres are improved and a legitimate darkhorse. But I will fade them as road chalk at Coors Field. San Diego is 4-14 in its last 18 road games. The pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Antonio Senzatela. I prefer Senzatela, who is 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 lifetime appearances versus the Padres, including six starts. He is 4-0 taking on the Padres at Coors Field. The Padres' late inning relief has been disappointing. The Rockies' relief staff has been surprisingly solid except for Wade Davis, who has no business being a closer anymore.
08-02-20	Rays -1.5 v. Orioles		1-5	Loss	-120	4 h 26 m	Show
It's a statistic rarely asked. What is Baltimore's record following a victory? The answer is 31-81. Not only are the Orioles off a victory against the Rays, but they've actually defeated Tampa Bay in consecutive games. I don't see a sweep happening and will lay 1 1/2 runs to reduce the juice to support this decision. The Rays are in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak. This wouldn't be crucial if this were a normal season. But as we know, the season is just 60 games. So Tampa Bay absolutely can't drop another one to the Orioles. Yonny Chirinos is reliable. He should be effective against the Orioles for the first few innings. The Rays then have a big bullpen advantage especially with Baltimore carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating. Look for the Rays to jump on Baltimore's journeyman starter Tommy Milone, who was bad filling in for John Means on opening night against the Red Sox and who has a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus the Rays. That includes five starts.
08-01-20	Jets +117 v. Flames		1-4	Loss	-100	12 h 57 m	Show
These two teams are extremely evenly-matched. But I like Winnipeg's firepower more and I give the Jets a big edge in net with goalie Connor Hellebuyck. He's played so well that he is in the Vezina Trophy discussion. Calgary's defense has taken a hit with Travis Hamonic opting out of the playoffs due to concerns about Coronavirus. The Flames have a recent history of flaming out in the playoffs. They have lost the past four times they've been favored in the postseason.
08-01-20	Padres v. Rockies +110		1-6	Win	110	10 h 29 m	Show
If they keep Wade Davis out of the game, I like the Rockies' chances of evening this series. The Rockies were on a four-game win streak until the Padres beat up Davis and rallied to defeat Colorado on Friday. Even with that win, San Diego is only 5-13 in its last 18 road games. The Padres also are 13-40 versus a lefty starter when on the road. Colorado is pitching southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has plenty of experience with Coors Field and pitching in Denver's thin air. Freeland was solid in his first start this season giving up two runs on four hits in six innings during a 5-2 win against the Rangers this past Sunday. Eric Hosmer has missed the past three games for the Padres due to sickness. San Diego is starting Joey Lucchesi, a lower-tier pitcher with a 4.71 lifetime ERA in four career starts at Coors.
08-01-20	Sparks v. Storm OVER 163		75-81	Loss	-116	8 h 10 m	Show
I see the prideful Storm coming up with a big offensive performance after being embarrassed, 89-71, by Washington two days ago. Seattle shot just 39.4 percent from the field in that game, missed 20 of 25 shots from 3-point range and committed 18 turnovers. The Sparks have a lot of star power, but are not well-coached.
08-01-20	Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9.5	Top	2-5	Loss	-125	14 h 34 m	Show
Zack Godley will lead the Red Sox clown parade of pitchers. It's not going to be pretty. Boston has no pitching and the Yankees have plenty of offense. That offense is starting to flex its muscles as the Yankees have scored 22 runs in their last three games. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for New York. He had a 24.75 ERA versus the Red Sox in eight innings last season. This will be his season debut and he's likely to be on a pitch count. He's been sidelined since getting hit in the head by a line drive on July 4. He has a 5.76 career ERA versus the Red Sox in 21 starts. Both offenses should be helped by the wind blowing out to left at 10 mph.
08-01-20	76ers v. Pacers +5.5	Top	121-127	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted.
08-01-20	Blackhawks v. Oilers OVER 6		6-4	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
Edmonton has the NHL's two leading point-getters in Leon Draisitl and Connor McDavid. They also have depth with four strong scoring lines. So the Oilers should come up big against a porous Blackhawks defense that gave up the second most shots on goal during the regular season. It shouldn't be a struggle for the Oilers to notch at least three goals. The Blackhawks also averaged 3 goals per game. This should be a free-wheeling matchup where the goalies could be rusty. It's worth noting, too, the Over has cashed eight of the last 10 times the teams have met in Edmonton.
07-31-20	Padres v. Rockies -105	Top	8-7	Loss	-105	17 h 18 m	Show
Colorado has been an early surprise opening 4-1 with all five of those games on the road. Now the Rockies are set for their home opener and they are in a great spot to win it. The price certainly is right to back them. The Rockies are throwing their ace, righty Jon Gray. The Rockies' bullpen has held up so far. Colorado has a 1.84 team ERA having faced the Rangers and A's. The Padres appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. But this is a bad spot for them. San Diego had to play late into the night on Thursday to defeat the Giants on the road in extra innings. Now they had to fly into Colorado. Colorado concluded last season winning seven of its last nine home games. They are tough to deal with at Coors Field especially if you lack experience at that ballpark. San Diego starter Garrett Richards has never pitched at Coors. He's likely in for a shock. San Diego has lost 12 of its last 15 road games when facing a righthanded starter and that includes its win Thursday against the weak Giants. The Padres are 1-4 in their last five games at Coors. They could be without steady first baseman Eric Hosmer, who has missed two straight games due to a stomach illness.
07-31-20	Kings v. Spurs +3.5	Top	120-129	Win	100	15 h 41 m	Show
The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
07-31-20	Liberty +5 v. Dream		78-84	Loss	-107	6 h 52 m	Show
I consider this to be more of a pick'em type of game so I'm glad to accept this many points. Atlanta is surrendering 97.5 points. The Dream could be without two of their key players. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times they've been favored. New York is inexperienced, but has the probable rookie-of-the-year in Sabrina Ionescu, who is a fantastic scorer. The winless Liberty should be primed for an all-out effort having lost to Seattle and Dallas. The Liberty beat the Dream two of three last season, including the last one, 71-63, at Atlanta.
07-31-20	Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 219.5		112-119	Loss	-110	12 h 60 m	Show
A combination of a neutral site, no fans and more than a 4-month layoff helped produce two Unders during the NBA's two Thursday's opening games of the resumed season. The Jazz-Pelican matchup went under by 19 points and the Clippers-Lakers game fell 16 points below the total. This matchup has the makings of an Under, too. Both the Bucks and Celtics have a lot of star power. So it's easy to think offense with these teams. The Bucks do average the most points per game in the NBA. However, these are two excellent, well-coached defensive teams also. Boston is the third-ranked defensive team in the NBA giving up 106.8 points per game, while Milwaukee ranks fifth allowing 107.4 points a game. Each team is using this eight-game reboot to prepare for the playoffs. Their priority is to fine-tune for the postseason and avoid injuries. The Celtics are only going to play Kemba Walker 14 to 20 minutes a game. Walker has been bothered by a sore knee. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' two best players, aren't likely to play huge minutes either. The Bucks were somewhat embarrassed following a 124-103 scrimmage loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. So their defensive intensity could be raised. Expect vanilla offenses as neither team wants to show much since they could meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals when the stakes are raised.
07-30-20	Clippers +3 v. Lakers	Top	101-103	Win	100	137 h 28 m	Show
I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
07-30-20	Sky v. Lynx +5.5		81-83	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
I'm expecting a strong effort from Minnesota after it didn't play well in a 90-66 loss to Seattle on Tuesday. Chicago has been a nice surprise opening 2-0. The Sky are improved, but I don't see them in Seattle's class. The Lynx swept the Sky last season winning all three matchups. Minnesota has covered four of the last five in the series.
07-30-20	Yankees v. Orioles OVER 10		8-6	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
The Orioles could be pitching Jim Palmer and the Yankees still probably would bash him because they love to hit at Camden Yards. Fortunately for Hall of Famer Palmer he didn't have to throw at Camden Yards, which is a tremendous hitter's park. The Yankees have averaged 4.1 homers per game during their last 11 games at Camden Yards. A combination of the temperature being in the 90's, a slight wind blowing out and John Means starting for Baltimore should ensure another big hitting game from the Yankees. Means displayed nice potential last season during his rookie year. But he had a 7.62 ERA in five appearances against the Yankees. This is his 2020 debut. He's not helped by a brutal bullpen. J.A. Happ goes for the Yankees. He had trouble handling the Orioles last year with a 6.85 ERA in 22 1/3 innings surrendering seven homers in this short span. The Yankees are without their closer, Aroldis Chapman.
07-30-20	Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5	Top	106-104	Loss	-110	34 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
07-29-20	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5		6-7	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
When Fernando Tatis Jr. is healthy like he is now, the Padres have a dangerous offense. They are averaging 5.2 runs a game despite playing their first four games at Petco Park. This matchup is at Pacific Bell Park, a pitcher's park, too, but not as anti-offense as Petco Park. The Padres have shown a major improvement this season on working the count and being more patient at the plate. I really like San Diego starter Chris Paddack. But he'll be pitching on four day's rest for the first time in his big league career having always gone on five day's rest before. Johnny Cueto continues on his comeback trail after tossing just 16 innings last season. So the Giants are likely to bring him along slowly. San Francisco has one of the worst bullpens in the majors.
07-29-20	Royals +127 v. Tigers	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	15 h 50 m	Show
Anytime I see the Tigers favored, I have to seriously consider the underdog. Detroit has lost 76 percent of its last 100 games! The Tigers are 1-4 the past five times they've been home chalk. The Royals aren't starting one of their not-ready-for-prime-time young pitchers. They are going with veteran lefty Danny Duffy. He held the Indians to two runs on three hits in 4 1/3 innings during his first start this season. Kansas City has the four best position players in this matchup. The Tigers are going with Matt Boyd, who looked terrible in his first start this year when he got hammered by the Reds. Boyd does not have a good history against the Royals either with a 5-9 mark and 6.46 ERA in 19 career outings versus them. Whit Merrifield, the best player on either team, has a lifetime batting average of nearly .500 against Boyd going 20-for-39.
07-29-20	Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates		3-0	Win	109	15 h 41 m	Show
I like the Brewers so much going with their best starter after playing poorly on Tuesday that I'll take them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs to get much better juice. The Brewers have owned the Pirates beating them 20 of the last 27 times, but blew a 6-2 lead in losing to Pittsburgh, 8-6, last night. The Brewers were disgusted with that defeat knowing they are the far superior team. Now they have Brandon Woodruff going. He was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings last season emerging as Milwaukee's ace. Woodruff was hitting 99 mph on his fastball opening day and is 2-0 career-wise versus the Pirates with 24 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. I consider Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove more as an innings-eater rather than a respectable starter. The Brewers own a huge bullpen edge, too.
07-28-20	Sparks -4.5 v. Sky		78-96	Loss	-110	6 h 16 m	Show
The Sparks are the superior team and draw the Sky in a letdown spot after Chicago nipped Las Vegas, 88-86, two days ago by scoring the final 11 points of the game. Las Vegas had eliminated the Sky from the playoffs last season. LA opened in impressive style rolling past Phoenix, 99-76, this past Saturday.
07-28-20	Braves v. Rays -125	Top	2-5	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
Tropicana Field is one of the tougher places to play especially for National League opponents. The Braves experienced the horrors of Tropicana Field losing by nine runs to the Rays on Monday. Atlanta fielders had difficulty dealing with the domed stadium's roof and background striking out 19 times. The price is low enough to back the Rays again today against the Braves, who are without their two top catchers. The Braves are going with Kyle Wright. He's a highly-rated prospect who is Atlanta's No. 5 pitcher now because Cole Hamels is out. Wright has failed to show anything in the majors yet posting a 7.71 ERA in 11 big league appearances. Lack of control has been a big issue with him. Yonny Chirinos gets the start for Tampa Bay. He has no problems at Tropicana Field holding opposing hitters to a .207 batting average there. Chirinos has much better control than Wright finishing with a 1.05 WHIP last year. The Rays usually come through as a home favorite winning 75 percent in that role the past 32 times. Tampa Bay also is 15-6 the past 21 games versus NL foes and 21-5 the last 26 times playing on astroturf.
07-27-20	Mariners v. Astros -1.5		5-8	Win	100	11 h 3 m	Show
Kendall Graveman is one of my least favorite starters. The combination of Graveman making his first start in two years after being out last year recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Astros coming off a loss puts me on Houston. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros - as does the oddsmaker - so I'm laying the run line to reduce the vigorish. Houston had defeated Seattle 15 straight times until losing, 7-6, to the Mariners on Sunday. The Astros also are 12-1 (92 percent) the past 13 times hosting the Mariners. Graveman had a 7.60 ERA when he last pitched in 2018. Houston is going with Josh James, one of its many talented young pitchers. James had 100 strikeouts in just 61 1/3 innings last year. He is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four career starts. James knows he could have a big role if Justin Verlander has a serious elbow injury. The Mariners are in full rebuild mode while the Astros are one of the best teams in baseball.
07-27-20	Diamondbacks +110 v. Padres	Top	2-6	Loss	-100	9 h 13 m	Show
After facing Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet and Garrett Richards, the Diamondbacks drop down in class today drawing Joey Lucchesi. He has a career record of 18-19 with a 4.14 ERA and has yet to prove he can be an above average starter. Right-handed Luke Weaver was a star holding 10 of 11 opponents to three runs or fewer last season before being sidelined until the final week of the season due to an elbow injury. The Padres have lost 20 of the past 26 times they've gone against a righty starter.
07-26-20	Braves v. Mets -105		14-1	Loss	-105	11 h 23 m	Show
The Braves are at a big early-season disadvantage with both of their veteran catchers, Travis d'Arnaud and Tyler Flowers, out. The combination of that and preferring veteran Rick Porcello against lefty Sean Newcomb puts me on the Mets at this low price. Porcello had spent his first 11 years in the American League. Porcello is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career interleague starters versus the Braves, but National League teams are mostly unfamiliar with him. Newcomb has moved around from bullpen to starter while proving more reliable as a relief pitcher. The Mets' lineup is more dangerous against southpaws with the return to health of right-handed DH Yoenis Cespedes.
07-26-20	Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11		7-4	Push	0	6 h 54 m	Show
It's not difficult to imagine each team scoring at least five runs in a starting pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Ryan Weber, especially with the weather and home plate umpire being factors. LeBlanc is a well-traveled veteran who is easily exposed when pitching in hitter's parks such as Fenway Park. The Orioles are maybe the only team that LeBlanc could make the starting rotation. LeBlanc had a 7.08 ERA during the last two months of 2019. Opponents batted .314 against him during this span. The weather forecast isn't a plus for LeBlanc, nor Red Sox starter Ryan Weber, with the forecast calling for temperatures to hit 90 degrees and wind blowing out to left at 11-12 mph. Weber is another guy who shouldn't be in a big league rotation after posting a 7.94 ERA in three starts last year. The Red Sox, though, are forced to be patient with him having lost through either injury, free agency or trade Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price. Alan Porter is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over cashed in 19 of his 30 games last year when he was behind the plate for 63 percent. Porter has annually been among the leaders in lowest percentage of strikes called during the past five seasons.
07-26-20	Tigers v. Reds -1.5		3-2	Loss	-101	5 h 27 m	Show
Trevor Bauer came close to reaching elite status with the Indians before taking a huge step backward after going to the Reds last season. The right-handed Bauer is in a contract year and has much to prove. Unlike other ballplayers, Bauer attacked the extended offseason with an intense training regime. Bauer's comeback begins against the team that scored the fewest runs in the majors last year, the Tigers. Detroit once again could be the worst team in the majors. The Tigers are 6-16 in their last 22 interleague road games and have lost 64 of the past 82 times (22 percent) they've faced a righty starter. The Tigers are starting Spencer Turnbull, who was 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA last year. Turnbull compiled some of these bad numbers at pitcher-friendly Commerica Park, too. The Reds' Great American Ball Park, by contrast, is one of the best hitting parks in the majors.
07-25-20	Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5		1-5	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
Robbie Ray is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. Ray is highly motivated to show well being a free agent at the end of the season. He looked great in spring training. I am also high on San Diego's starting pitcher, Dinelson Lamet. He has a tremendous fastball and is two years removed from Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2018 season. Lamet has improved his slider and curveball. He is a major breakout candidate. Lamet, like Ray, had a dominant spring training. He is going against a Diamondbacks lineup whose bottom third is very weak. Playing at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park, is another plus for the Under.
07-25-20	Tigers v. Reds -1.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-107	15 h 32 m	Show
Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
07-24-20	Giants v. Dodgers -1.5		1-9	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, if not all of baseball. The Giants could be the worst. It's nearly a no-brainer to just back the Dodgers on the run line thus avoiding laying heavy juice. It easily worked on Thursday with LA winning by seven runs even though Clayton Kershaw didn't pitch. The Dodgers have a dominant offense. It doesn't matter who the Giants start on the mound. San Francisco's bullpen is extremely weak, too, having lost its best relievers from last season. LA's scheduled starter, Ross Stripling, is solid. The key with Stripling is he has excellent control. The Giants are without three of their key hitters with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. That makes their already weak lineup even weaker.
07-24-20	Twins -103 v. White Sox	Top	10-5	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
We know this about the Twins: They are coming off a 101-win season and a major league record 307 homers. We know this about the White Sox: They have some intriguing young talent and are projected to challenge for the AL Central Division title. But they are untested. The Twins are the proven commodity. The White Sox are unknown. I like Twins starter Jose Berrios more than White Sox starter Lucas Giolito in this matchup. The price is right to back Minnesota. The Twins dominated the White Sox last season winning 13 of 19 times. Minnesota scored 231 more runs than Chicago last year. Berrios has a strong history versus the White Sox with an 11-2 record and 2.40 ERA in 14 career starts. This includes a 4-1 mark and 2.88 ERA against the White Sox last season. By contrast, Giolito is 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Twins.
07-24-20	Rockies v. Rangers -120		0-1	Win	100	17 h 1 m	Show
The Rockies are usually a good fade on the road. That should be the case here. Colorado has lost 39 of its last 54 away games. They are starting German Marquez and have one of the worst bullpens on paper. The Rockies' best reliever, Scott Oberg, is on the DL with a back strain. I like Texas starter Lance Lynn more than Marquez. The veteran Lynn won't lack motivation making his first Opening Day start. He hasn't pitched against the Rockies in three years, but has a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP versus them in seven career starts.
03-11-20	Senators +150 v. Kings		2-3	Loss	-100	16 h 58 m	Show
Kudos to the Kings, who have the fewest points in the Western Conference. Despite their lowly status, the Kings have put together a six-game win streak. Note, though, that three of those victories were by one goal with two of the victories coming in either overtime, or via a shootout. Now, for just the second time in their last 16 games, the Kings are favored. This is where I jump off the Kings' bandwagon. Ottawa hasn't been playing bad either with four wins in its last six games. The Senators are 7-3 the past 10 times against the Kings. Bottom line: Too much value on Ottawa to let this one pass.
03-11-20	Kansas State v. TCU -1.5	Top	53-49	Loss	-109	16 h 43 m	Show
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 131.5		66-56	Win	100	14 h 24 m	Show
The last time these teams met was 10 days ago. Old Dominion won, 85-80, in overtime. Both teams shot well from the floor. But that final score shouldn't disguise the fact that Florida Atlantic is a strong defensive-minded team. So are the Monarchs. They also play at a slow pace. These teams are familiar with each other having just met. That's a plus for the defenses. This is a netural site setting, too - the Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. That's another plus for the Under especially given Old Dominion's track record there, which is five games played in the last two years all of which fell below 121 points.
03-11-20	CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4		62-54	Loss	-110	9 h 54 m	Show
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.
03-10-20	Nets +11.5 v. Lakers	Top	104-102	Win	100	17 h 19 m	Show
The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games. Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur.
03-10-20	Illinois-Chicago +4.5 v. Northern Kentucky		62-71	Loss	-115	8 h 30 m	Show
Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in.
03-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1.5		81-72	Loss	-110	9 h 16 m	Show
Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games. Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home. Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
03-09-20	Avalanche v. Kings +121		1-3	Win	121	11 h 58 m	Show
Not only are the Kings playing their best hockey - winners of five in a row - but they are in a tremendous situational spot. Colorado is playing for the fourth time in six days and at its seventh different venue in a row. The Avalanche are coming off a 4-3 victory against the Sharks on Sunday. So they will be playing without rest. This is third consecutive away matchup. After this game, the Avalanche head home for four games in Colorado. LA is 6-1-1 in its last eight home games with four victories during their past four home contests. Jonathan Quick is expected to be in net for the Kings. He has a .957 save percentage and 1.35 GAA in his last five games. Colorado either will go with overworked Pavel Francouz, or backup Michael Hutchinson, in goal. Note, too, the Kings have defeated Colorado in seven of their last 10 meetings.
03-09-20	Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State	Top	65-70	Push	0	11 h 40 m	Show
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
03-08-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota UNDER 154.5	Top	74-71	Win	100	15 h 56 m	Show
South Dakota won both games from North Dakota during the regular season shooting better than 50 percent combined from the floor during the two games. The Coyotes beat North Dakota, 77-67, at home on Feb. 29 and on the road, 82-68, on Feb. 8. It's important to note that the combined total of those two games was 144 and 150 despite South Dakota's hot shooting. Both of those final numbers are less than what this total opened at. I don't expect either team to shoot that well for several reasons. There is going to be a rust factor since neither team has played since that Feb. 29 matchup. This game is at a neutral site in Sioux Falls being the first game of the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota really could be impacted since it relies on its 3-point shooting. North Dakota has had some misleading final scores recently due to overtime games. If you just count regulation, the Fighting Hawks have scored 74 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.
03-08-20	Raptors -5.5 v. Kings		118-113	Loss	-109	13 h 40 m	Show
Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team. The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent. Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game.
03-08-20	Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 247		120-107	Win	100	7 h 12 m	Show
I understand defense is not exactly a high priority with these two teams. But a lot has to break right for the Pelicans and Timberwolves to exceed this high Over/Under. New Orleans is playing for the fifth time in eight days. So is Minnesota. The tempo should be slower than usual because of that fatigue factor. The teams just met five days ago and it was a track meet with the Timberwolves pulling off a 139-134 upset road win. Both teams should be prepared for each other following this short turnaround especially the Pelicans in a rapid revenge situation.
03-07-20	Blue Jackets v. Oilers OVER 5.5		1-4	Loss	-100	7 h 9 m	Show
The Blue Jackets have gone Over in seven of their last nine games. They have given up 3 or more goals in 11 straight games. The Oilers have scored at least 3 goals in eight of their last 11 games. Leon Draisitl remains hot with 11 points during his last four games. The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the Oilers have hosted the Blue Jackets.
03-07-20	Kings v. Blazers -138		123-111	Loss	-138	11 h 5 m	Show
This is a crucial game for both teams being 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. I want Portland going for me here being home, having a healthy Damian Lillard and off a bad 127-117 road loss to the Suns on Friday. Portland is a much better home team going 17-13 compared to 11-23 on the road. Lillard should have the rust off this being his third game back from a groin injury. I like Portland's talent level more than Sacramento's with Lillard, CJ McCollum and Hassan Whiteside. The Kings haven't won at Portland since 2012, a string of 12 straight road losses.
03-07-20	Jazz v. Pistons +8.5		111-105	Win	100	8 h 9 m	Show
Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points. The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage.
03-07-20	Valparaiso +3.5 v. Missouri State		89-82	Win	100	6 h 40 m	Show
I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday. Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74.
03-07-20	Penn State -7 v. Northwestern	Top	69-80	Loss	-105	8 h 16 m	Show
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
03-07-20	UTEP +3.5 v. Rice		77-72	Win	100	5 h 49 m	Show
UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games. The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams. The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average. I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance.
03-06-20	Austin Peay v. Murray State -113	Top	61-73	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met on Feb. 29 and Murray State had no trouble this time putting away an opponent. The Racers buried Austin Peay, 75-61, as 4-point home favorites. So I was expecting this line to open a little higher being on a neutral court in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament being played in Evansville, Ind. Austin Peay has failed to cover in its last three games. The Governors are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they were an underdog. Murray State, on the other hand, enters this matchup on a three-game win streak while not allowing more than 63 points during its last five games.
03-06-20	Blazers -2.5 v. Suns		117-127	Loss	-110	11 h 6 m	Show
The Trail Blazers can't afford to lose this game in their quest to make the playoffs. Their journey is made easier with the return of star guard Damian Lillard. Phoenix has dropped four in a row. The Suns are down two key players with third-leading scorer Kelly Oubre sidelined with a knee injury and Deandre Ayton not likely to play because of an ankle injury. That should ensure another strong inside game from rejuvenated Hassan Whiteside. Portland has won the last five it has played the Suns in Phoenix.
03-06-20	Blackhawks v. Red Wings +145		1-2	Win	145	9 h 5 m	Show
The Red Wings are getting strong goalie work from Jonathan Bernier and have been idle since Monday. But this handicap is based far more on fading the Blackhawks. It's weird to see the Blackhawks this big of a favorite especially since they are playing without rest having edged the Oilers, 4-3, at home Thursday. The Red Wings nearly beat Chicago in the first meeting between the two teams this season. They led 2-0, but fell, 4-2. This gives the Red Wings revenge incentive and a rare realistic chance to win a home game for their long-suffering fans.
03-06-20	Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH	Top	67-65	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
03-05-20	Portland v. Santa Clara -7	Top	62-76	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
03-05-20	Weber State -4 v. Idaho		72-64	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
Prior to losing to Idaho State, Weber State had scored 83 and 82 points, respectively. The Wildcats average 70 points a game. Idaho averages fewer than 65 points a game. The Vandals' scoring has been down recently, too. They are averaging just 55.2 points during their last four games. The Vandals also have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. I see a class difference that is greater than this point spread.
03-05-20	Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 135		65-75	Loss	-108	13 h 31 m	Show
The last time these two teams met was on Feb. 22. Illinois State won, 57-53, as 1 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the teams are facing each other again, but it's in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at a neutral site in St. Louis at a venue known for having a tough shooting backdrop. Drake is averaging just 52 points in its last three games. Illinois State has held its last three foes to an average of 60 points in regulation. This is a defensive-minded conference so I have to believe this one is going to be as low-scoring as the last matchup.
03-04-20	Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island		84-57	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
Don't overthink this game. Dayton has won 18 games in a row because the Flyers are the superior team. Led by Obi Toppin, the Flyers are leading the nation in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent. Toppin is averaging nearly 20 points a game while shooting an Atlantic-10 leading 63.2 percent from the floor. Rhode Island has yielded at least 72 points in four of its last five games, losing three of those matchups. The Rams aren't going to be able to stay with Dayton. That was the case in the first meeing, which Dayton won, 81-67, on Feb. 11. It will be the case here, too.
03-04-20	Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5	Top	73-71	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
03-04-20	Thunder -7.5 v. Pistons		114-107	Loss	-116	7 h 57 m	Show
Oklahoma City is in stop-the-pain mode having lost its last two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bucks and Clippers. Now the Thunder step way down in class to face the battered Pistons. The Pistons no longer have Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Blake Griffin is out for the season. Their two best players are Derrick Rose and Christian Wood. Rose isn't likely to play because of an ankle injury while Wood is questionable with a foot injury. So this sets up as a kill spot for the Thunder. The situation also favors Oklahoma City. Detroit is home for the first time since finishing a four-game road trip at Sacramento on Sunday. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games and 1-8 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark. The Thunder have been one of the top road spread teams covering 22 of their last 29 away games. They are 9-1 ATS, too, the past 10 times when playing without rest and and 9-1 ATS against opponent with a losing home mark.
03-03-20	Sabres v. Jets -150		1-3	Win	100	6 h 56 m	Show
The Jets are 10-3 the past 13 times as a home favorite. I want them going for me returning home after being idle for two days and coming off a tough 3-2 loss to Edmonton on Saturday in which they outshot the Oilers, 41-22. Buffalo is a terrible road team as evidenced by its 14-46 away mark in its past 60 away games. The Sabres' offense is heavily reliant upon Jack Eichel and he's in a scoring slump without a point in his last four games.
03-03-20	Marquette -4 v. DePaul		68-69	Loss	-109	15 h 38 m	Show
In Markus Howard I trust. The senior guard leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points a game. Marquette desperately needs this game being on the bubble for an NCAA Tourney bid. DePaul can't beat its fellow Big East teams. The Blue Demons are 2-14 in their last 16 conference games. The Golden Eagles have defeated DePaul during the past four meetings. This includes a 76-72 win at Marquette. DePaul shot 50 percent from the floor in that loss, while Marquette managed to hit only 40 percent of its field goals yet still win by four. Look for the Golden Eagles to shoot better this time around and to win by a more comfortable margin.
03-03-20	Cleveland State v. Oakland -7	Top	59-80	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
03-03-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State		70-89	Loss	-107	14 h 47 m	Show
Georgia State is much better at home. Arkansas Little Rock already has clinched the Sun Belt Conference title. Yet this line is out of whack because Arkansas Little Rock still is a much superior team to the Panthers with a big inside edge. Little Rock has been playing with a chip on its shoulder the whole season after being picked to finish 11th in the conference. So the Trojans just aren't going to mail this one it. Georgia State has lost three in a row - all by at least eight points. That's dropped the Panthers to fifth place in the Sun Belt.
03-02-20	Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hawks		127-88	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
The Hawks are getting some love here from the oddsmaker coming off consecutive home double-digit victories against the Nets and Trail Blazers. The key for the Hawks in those victories was their 3-point shooting. Atlanta sank 37 of 81 3-pointers during those two games for 45.6 percent. I don't see the Hawks keeping up that long range accuracy. They rank last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy hitting 33.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The buy sign is back on the Grizzlies after they halted a five-game losing streak coming off break with a monster, 105-88, home win against the Lakers on Saturday. That was LA's lowest scoring total of the season. The Grizzlies don't want to just give that victory back with a loss to the lowly Hawks, who are one of the five-worst teams in the NBA and at least 1 1/2 levels lower than Memphis.
03-02-20	North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State	Top	76-65	Win	100	15 h 4 m	Show
I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
03-02-20	Blazers +7 v. Magic		130-107	Win	100	14 h 13 m	Show
The bottom line for me is Orlando is not this many points better than Portland even playing at home and the Trail Blazers missing Damian Lillard. The teams met in Portland on Dec. 20 and the Trail Blazers won, 118-103. Lillard was instrumental in that victory. But even without Lillard, the Trail Blazers should keep this close, if not win, taking on such a limited offensive opponent. Portland outscores Orlando by eight points a game. The Trail Blazers still have the best guard on the court in CJ McCollum. I also would take Hassan Whiteside against any of Orlando's big men right now. Whiteside has been rejuvenated this season leaving Miami. He's produced double-doubles in his last nine games. Orlando doesn't have a strong home-court failing to cover in seven of its last nine games at Amway Center.
03-01-20	Pistons +7.5 v. Kings	Top	100-106	Win	100	12 h 28 m	Show
The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role. The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel. Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
03-01-20	76ers v. Clippers UNDER 219		130-136	Loss	-110	10 h 55 m	Show
The 76ers and Clippers have plenty of star power. They also are underrated defensive clubs. Philadelphia ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring defense giving up 106.5 points. The Clippers rate No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are down their two best players, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. That greatly reduces not only their offense but tempo, too. Only two teams have played at a slower pace than Philadelphia during its past three games. The Clippers are fully healthy for one of the few times this season. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley are all excellent defensive players. Note this is an early West Coast start time. That's a plus for the Under, also.
03-01-20	Florida International +5 v. Charlotte	Top	67-52	Win	100	5 h 9 m	Show
This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
02-29-20	Stars +124 v. Blues		3-4	Loss	-100	7 h 57 m	Show
I'll take a plus price with the Stars in revenge mode for a 5-1 home loss to the Blues on Feb. 21. Dallas is 10-4 the last 14 times as a road 'dog and 18-7 the past 25 times when facing an above .500 opponent. The Blues, by contrast, are 4-10 versus opponents with a winning mark.
02-29-20	Nets +7 v. Heat		113-116	Win	100	7 h 18 m	Show
Miami received a much needed win beating the Mavericks, 126-118, last night. The Nets also played last night and were humiliated in the fourth quarter by the Hawks losing, 141-118, on the road. That was the most points the Nets had surrendered in three years. I'm expecting a much stronger and focused effort from the Nets, who even with that loss still yield just two fewer points per game than Miami. The Heat are a bit fat and happy after that victory. Miami hasn't been playing well just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Heat are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a point spread cover. Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS the past seven times following a victory. The Nets have covered in four of their last five games against the Heat, including both meeting this season winning, 117-113, at home on Jan. 10 and falling, 109-106, as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of those games.
02-29-20	Canucks v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5		2-4	Loss	-128	3 h 20 m	Show
The Canucks have gone Over eight of the last nine times they've gone against an Eastern Conference foe. Look for that pattern to continue. Vancouver has yielded an average of four goals per game during its last five games. The Maple Leafs are averaging four goals a game in their last four contests. The Over has cashed seven of the last 10 times the Maple Leafs have met a Western Conference foe.
02-29-20	Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 127	Top	55-63	Loss	-105	13 h 47 m	Show
Both offenses have picked up since Fresno State won the first meeting, 65-50, on Jan. 18. The Bulldogs have scored 70 or more points in six of their last eight games. They also have given up 71 points or more in seven of their past 10 games. Wyoming has produced 68 or more points in four of its past five games. The Cowboys have picked up their pace averaging six more possessions per game during their last seven matchups.
02-29-20	Oakland +3.5 v. Illinois-Chicago		68-66	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
I see Oakland scoring enough points to produce an outright upset. The Golden Grizzlies have produced 70 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The lone exception was scoring 68 points in their last game. Illinois-Chicago averages fewer than 69 points a game. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering four of the last five times.
02-29-20	George Washington +12.5 v. VCU		51-75	Loss	-108	9 h 21 m	Show
Considering VCU is likely to be withou guard Marcus Evans for a second straight game and has been playing horrible, I see this line being vastly inflated. The Rams have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. Evans, the Rams' third-leading scorer and top assists guy, is dealing with a knee injury. It's hard to cover a large margin against George Washington because the Colonials play at a very slow tempo. The Colonials haven't lost by more than 12 points in 12 of their last 15 games.
02-28-20	Washington State +10 v. Washington		78-74	Win	100	16 h 60 m	Show
I'm hoping point guard Isaac Bonton will be able to play for Washington State. He's questionable with a hip injury. But the Cougars still have a tremendous all-around player in CJ Elleby. I don't believe Washington is this many points better than Washington State so I'm on the Cougars regardless of Bonton's status. Washington State defeated the Huskies, 79-67, on Feb. 9 behind Elleby's 34 points. The Huskies have been one of the worst ATS teams since Christmas failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games. The talent gap between these two teams doesn't merit this high of a point spread in my view.
02-28-20	Nets -2 v. Hawks	Top	118-141	Loss	-110	18 h 39 m	Show
The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses. I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday.
02-28-20	Wild v. Blue Jackets -124	Top	5-0	Loss	-124	15 h 59 m	Show
These two teams just met on Tuesday in Minnesota. The Blue Jackets were playing for the eighth time in 13 days. The Wild edged them, 5-4. Now the fatigue situation is reversed. Columbus has been idle the past two days. Minnesota just played last night rolling past the Red Wings. This marks the Wild's third game in four days and fourth matchup in six days. The Wild's track record in these spots is very bad - 2-8 the past 10 times on zero rest and 2-11 the last 13 times when playing in a 3-in-4 situation. They also have a losing record on the road. This is a crucial home matchup for the Blue Jackets, who hold a narrow two-point lead over the Hurricanes and Rangers for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
02-27-20	Arizona State +4 v. UCLA	Top	72-75	Win	100	16 h 18 m	Show
Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
02-27-20	Texas-San Antonio +4 v. Florida Atlantic		71-80	Loss	-109	11 h 0 m	Show
Texas-San Antonio is the 23rd-highest scoring team in the nation. The Roadrunners average eight more points per game than Florida Atlantic. They have a big backcourt edge with Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who average a combined 47 points per game. The Roadrunners have scored 77 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. I don't see Florida Atlantic producing enough points to cover let alone win the game. The Owls have not been playing well losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games.
02-27-20	Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston		71-80	Loss	-105	10 h 5 m	Show
Delaware has won eight of its last 10 games, while Collge of Charleston is at low ebb losing and failing to cover in its last four games. The Cougars are averaging just 58.5 points during these past four games. The Blue Hens, on the other hand, have produced 76 or more points in six of their last eight games.
02-26-20	Oilers v. Golden Knights -1.5		0-3	Win	120	13 h 15 m	Show
Las Vegas is playing its best hockey on a six-game win streak. The Golden Knights should be well-rested, too, having been idle since Sunday. Edmonton, though, is coming off a road overtime loss to the Ducks last night. Because it's their second game in two nights, the Oilers are expected to start backup goalie Mikko Koskinen. He has less than sterling credentials with an .899 save percentage and 3.28 GAA in his last four games.
02-26-20	New Mexico v. Air Force -2		58-60	Push	0	12 h 13 m	Show
New Mexico hasn't been the same since Carlton Bragg was booted off the team in mid-January. Bragg provided the Lobos an inside force being their best rebounder and top field goal percentage shooter. The Lobos' roster has been in flux since then. The results have showed that as New Mexico is 1-7 in its last eight games and has lost four in a row. The Lobos have yet to win on the road without Bragg going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS. This has been a home team series with the host covering 11 of the last 15 times. That's the way I see this matchup going, too, with Air Force winning. The Falcons are a far superior 3-point shooting team and won't lack motivation. Not only are the Falcons coming off an embarrassing 78-72 home loss to Wyoming in which they were favored by 8 1/2-points, but this is the final home game for five of their seniors.
02-26-20	Magic -129 v. Hawks		130-120	Win	100	15 h 42 m	Show
The Magic are at their best versus sub .500 teams covering 10 of the past 13 times against them. This includes a 115-113 road win against the Nets this past Monday when Orlando rallied from 19 points down in the third quarter. That win pulled the Magic within 1 1/2 games of Brooklyn for the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Orlando certainly doesn't want to give back that progress with a loss to the lowly Hawks. The Hawks can be pesky versus good teams, but are just 7-16-1 ATS the past 24 times taking on opponents with a losing mark. The Magic surrender 14 points less per game than Atlanta. Orlando's top-ranked defense has the capability of frustrating John Collins, Trae Young and De'Andre Hunter.
02-26-20	Bradley -3 v. Illinois State	Top	74-71	Push	0	17 h 17 m	Show
Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again.
02-25-20	Panthers v. Coyotes -124		2-1	Loss	-124	4 h 17 m	Show
The Coyotes draw the Panthers at the end of their five-game, nine-day road trip. Arizona has been idle the past two days after posting an impressive home victory against Tampa Bay. The Coyotes are 10-1 the past 11 times on two days rest. The teams met last month and the Coyotes beat the Panthers, 5-2, in Florida. The Panthers are 0-5 the past five times they've been underdogs and are 1-5 during their last six visits to Arizona.
02-25-20	Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls	Top	124-122	Loss	-109	19 h 41 m	Show
Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games! This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.
02-25-20	Flames v. Bruins UNDER 6		5-2	Loss	-109	10 h 12 m	Show
Look for the Bruins to play with a great deal of defensive intensity at home after giving up nine goals to the Canucks on the road in their last game three days ago. Before that game, Boston had allowed just 17 goals in its past 12 games. Both teams have been active on the trade market so the various lines may not be in full sync yet. Boston played at Calgary this past Friday and won, 4-3. However, only one goal was scored during the second and third periods combined as the defensives figured things out.
02-25-20	Ole Miss +8.5 v. Auburn		58-67	Loss	-109	14 h 56 m	Show
These teams met in late January and Auburn nipped Mississippi, 83-82, in double overtime. A takeaway from that game is that Rebels star senior guard Breein Tyree scored only six points. Tyree leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 points. He has been hot during his last six games making 56 of 107 shots from the floor for 52.3 percent. The Rebels have scored 68 or more points in five of their last six games sparked by Tyree. I expect Tyree to play much better this time around against Auburn and for the Rebels to get the cover. Auburn is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. The Tigers had to rally from 17 points down in the second half to beat Tennessee, 73-66, this past Saturday covering as six-point home favorites. The Tigers managed to eke out a cover by making two free throws with eight seconds left. If Auburn didn't cover in that matchup it would have the Tigers' fifth straight non-cover.
02-24-20	Oklahoma State +15.5 v. Kansas		58-83	Loss	-110	17 h 34 m	Show
The combination of Oklahoma State playing well and Kansas in a letdown spot after knocking off top-ranked Baylor, 64-61, on Saturday puts me on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has looked sharp especially this past Saturday when the Cowboys rolled past Oklahoma, 83-66. Better backcourt production has been instrumental for the Cowboys and can help them hang in against the Jayhawks at this large point spread. The Cowboys have scored 70 or more points in four of their last six games.
02-24-20	Magic +3.5 v. Nets	Top	115-113	Win	100	15 h 18 m	Show
Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games. Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks. The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6. Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.