Zack Greinke remans an elite pitcher. Jose Berrios has a high ceiling, but has been struggling after a bright beginning following being called up from the minors. Berrios has a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts. Greinke is 3-0 with a 0.65 ERA in four interleague starts this year. Greinke knows the AL well. Berriors does not know the NL and the Diamondbacks have a very strong hittling lineup made stronger if J.D. Martinez is able to play after sitting out yesterday due to illness.  Arizona is 11-4 in its last 15 interleague games. 

I'm going to fade Trevor Bauer as a road favorite. Bauer doesn't have a good road mark this season - 4-5 with a 6.32 ERA - and is in the unusual spot of pitching for the third time in less than a week having pitched in relief just two days ago.  The Indians are playing well. The Royals, though, had won four of their last five before getting trounced by the Indians last night. That was going against Corey Kluber, though.  Jason Vargas had a great June and a bad July. He was back on his game during his last start this past Sunday holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in six innings. Vargas isn't as good as he was early in the year. But he's not as bad as he looked last month.  Vargas has pitched his best this season versus Cleveland going 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. He is pitching on five days rest. Kansas City is 10-2 the past 12 times Vargas has gone on five days rest. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks probably are better than their 1-6-1 record. But that's said every week - and they've failed to win in seven of their eight games.  Now the snake bit Redblacks are laying more than a field goal on the road. I don't see it.  Hamilton has a terrible record, too, at 0-7. But aside rom a 60-1 no-show against the Stampeders, the Tiger-Cats have had some good stretches during the season. They can't buy a win either just like Ottawa.  The Redblacks have failed to pass for more than 300 yards during their last three games. Despite their horrendous record, they could enter this matchup overconfident. Ottawa isn't good enough to cover as road chalk without a very good performance. The Redblacks have shot themselves in the foot all year. I don't care for their coaching.  Even though they are 0-7, the Tiger-Cats still harbor playoff hopes being fortunate to reside in the East Division where every team has a losing record. I expect Hamilton to put forth a strong effort at home. 

It wouldn't shock me to see the Dodgers lose this game. The spot is ripe for the Tigers to pull an upset here. But I'm not crazy enough to stand in the Dodgers' way. They are a mind-boggling 50-9 in their last 59 games. That's why I'm taking the Tigers plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Dodgers were idle Thursday. That could cool them off. This also is their first game away from the West Coast in 12 days. It's a three-hour time difference for them.  The pitching matchup is lefty Rich Hill versus Jordan Zimmerman.  Hill is vulnerable at big chalk because of his tendency to develop blisters and leave games early. The Tigers have a winning home mark and also a winning record against southpaws.  Detroit was idle Thursday, too. The Tigers have won 18 of the past 26 times following an off day. The Tigers also have other impressive trends that fit this situation: They have won 69 percent of their last 131 interleague home games. They are 29-10 the last 39 times they've gone against a lefty starter at Comerica Park.  Zimmerman is a pitcher I have always liked. Injuries and a switch to the American League have derailed him. But he's still effective when he's healthy, which he is now. He's turned in three quality outings during his last four starts.  Zimmerman has experience handling the Dodgers, too, having made eight starts against them when he was with the Nationals. Zimmerman has a 2.11 ERA during his past four starts versus the Dodgers. 

Injuries not talent has been what has held Drew Pomeranz back. Pomeranz has been healthy the past two months and it has shown in his stats. He's given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his past 11 starts. It's not a fluke either. The talent is there backed by strong peripherals. Pomeranz has averaged more than one strikeout per inning.  Boston is 7-2 in Pomeranz's last nine starts. Jordan Montgomery can't match that. New York is 1-6 the past seven times Montgomery has faced an above .500 team.  The Yankees beat up on the battered Mets, but are stepping way up in class here. Boston has won eight of its last nine home games. The Red Sox also have won the last four times Pomeranz faced the Yankees. 

Look for a quarterback shootout here between Mike Reilly and Winnipeg's Matt Nichols.  The Eskimos are averaging more than 29 points a game with Reilly and rank No. 1 in yards gained. Reilly has thrown the third most touchdowns and third most yards in the CFL this season. Edmonton's offense should be even better with the expected return of offensive line starters Danny Groulx and Justin Soresnon. Also Duke Williams should be back. He's one of the Edmonton's better receivers.  Winnipeg gives up the second-most points in the CFL. But the Blue Bombers are the No. 2 scoring team in the league with Nichols developing into a star. Winnipeg has scored 33 or more points in each of its last five games. Nichols catches a break in that the Eskimos have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line.  Note, too, the Over has cashed seven of the last eight times when the Blue Bombers have met a foe from the Western Division. 

This series has only gone under once during the past nine games played in Arlington. Look for the Over trend to continue today with a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Tyson Ross.  I can easily envision each team scoring at least five runs apiece. The Rangers have scored six or more runs in five of their last six games. They are averaging more than nine runs during their last three games.  Lopez will be making his second start of the year. He had a 4.91 ERA pitching for Washington last season making 11 appearances, including six starts. Lopez has a high ceiling, but isn't major league caliber yet and not used to facing AL teams and a DH. Pitching at Arlington this time of season - when the weather is hot and muggy - is very rough, too. It really favors the hitters.  Ross is working his way back into shape following assorted injuries. His control and stamina remain lacking. He's worked fewer than six innings in all but one of his eight starts and he yielded five walks during his last start this past Saturday in fewer than six innings. 

The Braves nipped the Rockies, 4-3, Tuesday night. Before that game, Atlanta had lost 11 in a row at Coors Field.

 Look for the Braves to begin a new losing streak at Coors starting with today's game.  The Braves have been looking more like the rebuilding team that they are. They're playing young players and still missing injured Matt Kemp. This is reflected in 16 losses in the Braves' past 22 games.  The Rockies have their best pitcher, Jon Gray, going and closer Greg Holland is rested. Gray has shown he can pitch well at Coors Field going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts this season. He was 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Braves last season. Mike Foltynewicz is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter who is showing signs of hitting the wall. He has an 8.31 ERA during his last three starts of which only one lasted more than four innings. Foltynewicz has a 4.88 road ERA.  Foltynewicz has to deal with a Rockies lineup that is far more dangerous than Atlanta's offense. Only two teams rank higher than Colorado in runs and batting average. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. They've been particularly bad on the road going 20-41. So normally they are a team to avoid especially in away circumstances such as this. But the team still has some prideful veterans and they will play hard here for Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner doesn't have the wins to show for it, but he's pitching like the four-time All-Star that he is. Since coming off the DL during the middle of last month, Bumgarner has posted a 2.52 ERA. He has a 1.29 ERA during his past three starts.  Dan Straily posted a 3.31 ERA in the first half of the season. Straily has hit a wall, though, going 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA during the second half of the year. The Marlins have lost each of the last six times Straily has pitched. 

The Yankees aren't that good where they can lay a price like this against Jacob deGrom.  Both teams take a lot of pride in this Subway Series and the Mets have their best pitcher going here. deGrom can take his place among any to be nominated as the hottest pitcher in baseball. He is 9-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 85 strikeouts during his last 79 1/3 innings.  The Yankees beat the Mets, 4-2, last night. The Yankees have lost five of the past six times following a win. They are averaging just 3.2 runs in their last five games.  I'm not sold that Sonny Gray is an elite pitcher. I wouldn't put him in deGrom's class. Gray has to prove he can pitch effectively away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. His road ERA this season is 3.75. This is a home game for him, but he hasn't pitched at Yankee Stadium all year. Gray is going to have to deal with streaky Yoenis Cespedes, who is hot with four homers in his last six games, including three in the last three games.

I see the Astros breaking out of their slump here. Houston is 7-1 in Brad Peacock's last eight starts. That's not a fluke stat. Peacock has tremendous stuff.  The Diamondbacks are without their most underrated player, David Perralta. He's on paternity leave. There's a monster drop from Peralta to Gregor Blanco.  The Astros still are the No. 1 offensive team in baseball. They should be able to rough up Anthony Banda, making only his fourth big league start.  Banda has a 4.60 ERA and opposing teams now have three previous starts to gather information from. Banda would not be in the rotation if it weren't for Robbie Ray being on the DL. 

Only once in their last nine games have the Royals gone under the total. Look for another Over in today's Royals game as Kansas City plays Oakland. The Royals have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games. The A's are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 19 runs in their last three games.  The starting pitching matchup is Royals rookie Jake Junis, who carries a 4.70 ERA, facing Jharel Cotton. Junis has been shuttling back and forth from the majors to the minors. He's too inconsisent now for the Royals to trust. Cotton has been a major disappointment with a 5.72 ERA. Cotton has been horrible since returning from the DL. He has an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts.  The Royals' bullpen is worn down while the A's bullpen is depleted and totally unreliable following trades.  Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher's park. But this is negated by the weather forecast that calls for 16 mph winds blowing out to right.  

BC is the superior team here. The Lions are 5-2. Their two losses have each come to unbeaten Edmonton. The Lions have won their other five games by an average of 10.6 points per game. This includes a 30-15 home victory against Saskatchewan last week.  That game wasn't even as close as the 15-point final, BC jumped to a 30-0 lead and let down in the fourth quarter allowing the Roughriders to score a couple of garbage touchdowns with their backup quarterback.  Saskatchewan is 2-4. The Roughriders remain inconsistent. They have trouble protecting quarterback Kevin Glenn. Worse, the Roughriders still can't beat a Western Division opponent. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games versus Western foes, including being winless this season. Going back even more, the Roughriders have lost 26 of their past 29 matchups against Western Division opponents.  The Roughriders were disappointing last year. They opened 1-5 in 2016. They aren't much better at 2-4 this season. Sure it's a revenge spot for the Roughriders. That, and home field advantage, make this a low spread. Low enough where it's worth a money line play.  But the Lions are much the better team. They are 13-5 ATS during their past 18 road games, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year. The Roughriders have failed to cover the last five times they've hosted BC. 

The Angels are going for a four-game road sweep of the Mariners. The oddsmaker doesn't see the Angels getting it making Seattle favored. I don't either. I like the Mariners in this circle-the-wagons game for them.  Angels starter Parker Bridwell has been a revelation. The Angels are 10-1 in his 11 starts. Bridwell isn't this good. The Mariners know that first hand. They dealt the Angels their lone loss when Bridwell started winning, 10-0, in Anaheim on June 30. The Mariners scored five earned runs off him on 11 hits in six innings.  The Angels' bullpen has outpitched the Mariners' relievers in this series. I don't see that continuing either. The Angels are unsettled at closer with Bud Norris being demoted.  Ariel Miranda gets the start for Seattle. He was the pitcher who beat Bridwell in that June 30 games. Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing only two hits and two walks. He also defeated the Angels, 11-3, back in May. Miranda's career mark versus the Angels is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA. I have a lot of confidence in him against this opponent. 

Jon Lester has a 4.25 road ERA and is vulnerable to strong base stealing teams such as the Diamondbacks. Nobody knows this better than Arizona manager Tony Lovullo, who was a bench coach and running game coordinator for the Red Sox and worked closely with Lester when the two were in Boston together.  The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the majors with 77 stolen bases. The southpaw Lester gave up the most stolen bases in 2015 with a staggering 44 and is tied for fourth in allowing the most steals this season. Lester has a 4.94 lifetime ERA in five starts against Arizona.  Making matters worse for Lester and the Cubs is their catcher, Wilson Contreras, is out with a right hamstring strain. Not only was Contreras having a big year with the bat - 21 homers and 70 RBIs - but he had thrown out 20 base stealers. The Cubs' catching options now are Alex Avila, who caught yesterday, and rookie Victor Caratini. Avila has played only five games with the Cubs. Neither has experience with Lester.  Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. Corbin didn't allow more than two earned runs during four consecutive starts from July 9-26. He's been hurt by shoddy defense in his last two starts with four unearned runs. Corbin has pitched much better at Chase Field with a 6-3 mark and 3.14 ERA this season.  The roof is going to be closed for this game, which hurts the power for both teams. It's a break, though, for the Diamondbacks because they have by far the better running game. The Cubs rank 25th in steals.  The Diamondbacks have been highly successful against lefty starters at home winning 12 of the past 15 times. 

The Rockies are a better team than the Marlins, who are in rebuild mode. The price is low enough to get involved with Colorado especially with a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Jose Urena.  Gray is the Rockies' best pitcher - and now he is pitching like it with a 2.84 ERA and an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Colorado is 7-3 in Gray's last 10 starts.  Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are the Marlins' best players and Ozuna is in a slump with just four hits during his past 27 at bats.  The Marlins are 5-14 during Urena's last 19 home starts. Urena also has been pitching well lately, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in Gray's class.  The spot sets up well, too, for Colorado. The Rockies were idle Thursday while the Marlins were playing for the 20th time in 21 days. The Rockies are 17-6 the past 23 times they've played following an off day. 

The Mets put up 10 runs on the Phillies Thursday. Prior to that, however, New York was averaging just 2.4 runs in its last 13 games. The Mets' power is greatly reduced after they dealt away Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda.  Phillies starter Nick Pivetta pitched the best game of his young career when he faced the Mets last month holding them to one hit in seven innings. Pivetta is a high strikeout pitcher, who is prone to the long ball. But Pivetta has pitched much better at home - holding foes to a .223 batting average at Citizens Band Park - and much of the Mets' power is gone now. The Phillies' bullpen has been much better lately.  Mets starter Seth Lugo is a bit underrated due to all the other great young arms on the Mets. Lugo can take care of business against a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in runs and 28th in homers.  Roberto Ortiz is slated to be making his eighth career appearance as a major league home plate umpire. The under has cashed in six of his previous seven times as the home plate ump. 

Mike Tomlin is one of those coaches who doesn't care about preseason. That's evident in how he approaches these exhibition games - and in his record. The Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 13 of their 17 preseason games during the past four years. That includes going 0-4 SU and ATS in their preseason openers. They lost three preseason games by double-digits last season. 

 I don't see anything being different here. Tomlin not only is holding out Ben Roethlisberger, but also second-string QB Landry Jones. Rookie Josh Dobbs is going to see the majority of snaps behind center for Pittsburgh. He'll be followed by Bart Houston. The Giants aren't going to play Eli Manning, but they have a much stronger quarterback rotation with Geno Smith and Josh Johnson. Not only are these two battling to win the backup job, but both are mobile quarterbacks. Having a mobile quarterback is huge in preseason where plays often break down. It's not just the Steelers' poor track record and quarterback disadvantage that makes the Giants an attractive favorite here. Pittsburgh has been hit hard by injuries during training camp with a dozen players hurting. The Steelers are extremely thin at cornerback. The Giants' short passing game can take advantage. The Giants have had a spirited training camp. They want to avoid a sluggish start they had last August. They will be the more motivated team.

Both teams have good quarterback rotations for preseason with open competition for the starting spot. That should ensure enough scoring for the final score to go Over this low total. Trevor Siemian has looked good during training camp, feeling much more comfortable operating Denver's offense. He's likley to play 1 1/2 quarters against a weak Chicago secondary. Paxton Lynch then will take over. New Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he'll be using preseason as a way to judge his quarterback competition.  Mike Glennon is expected to start for the Bears. He'll see at least a few series as the Bears want to get Glennon up to speed in their system. Glennon has appeared in only two NFL games since 2014.   Following Glennon will be veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are extremely anixous to find out what Trubisky can do.  Expect the Bears to be throwing a lot to Kevin White, who they want to get the rust off and find out just how good White is. 

Edmonton is unbeaten thanks in part to a defense that gives up the fewest yards in the CFL and the second-fewest points per game.  So I trust the Eskimos defense to do their part. The problem for Edmonton is going to be on offense due to a long injury list that keeps growing.  The Eskimos have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line and now will be without Brandon Zylstra, their most dynamite receiver. Zylstra leads Edmonton in receiving hauling in 39 of 47 targets.  These two teams have a history of going under the total doing so in seven of their past 10 meetings. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks are 1-5-1. Are they that bad? No. They've been snakebit losing their five games by a combined 13 points. They've only been outscored by eight points on the season. Ottawa is 7-2 ATS during its last nine games, including 5-2 ATS this season. The Reblacks should have beaten Winnipeg last week. At least they get to stay home as this is their second consecutive home matchup. Reports from practice say the Redblacks remain upbeat.   Edmonton is the lone remaining unbeaten team in the CFL at 6-0. Are the Eskimos this good? No. All but one of their victories have been by five points or fewer. They have a losing spread record.  The Eskimos have a long injury list. Among those out are several starting offensive linemen, including center Justin Sorenson, two starting linebackers, their top receiver - Brandon Zylstra - and starting cornerback Gary Peters.  This is good news for Ottawa quarterback Trevor Harris, who leads the CFL with 14 TD passes and is No. 2 in passing yards.  The Redblacks have covered five of the last six in this series. 

The Indians are averaging a meager two runs per game during their last four games. The Rays have scored just four runs during their last five games.  So why try to make an Over work here? Law of averages for one. Cleveland ranks eighth in the majors in runs and batting average. The Rays have smacked the ninth most homers in the majors.  The other major factor is Blake Snell is going to pitch. The Rays realize Snell shouldn't be in the majors. That's why they sent him down to Triple-A Durham less than a week ago. But an injury to Alex Cobb has put Snell back for another big league start.  Snell has a 5.02 ERA at Tropicana Field. He has yielded a home run in each of his last four starts. Tampa Bay has a bad bullpen and Snell doesn't go deep into games. The over has cashed in eight of his last 11 home starts.  Jay Bruce can't wait to join the Indians with a chance to face Snell.  Indians starter Danny Salazar has been stellar in three starts since coming off the DL. Salazar isn't this good. He's due to take a step back. 

The Brewers were huge overachievers during the first half of the season. They are tumbling back to Earth now, losers of 15 of their last 22. The Twins, meanwhile, are hanging in just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. They have won three in a row and have back All-Star power hitter Miguel Sano.  So why then are the Brewers such huge favorites here? Two words - Bartolo Colon.  The 44-year-old Colon is more craft than substance. He has a 5.18 ERA in four starts with Minnesota. That's a lot better, though, than the 8.14 ERA he recorded in 13 starts with the Braves before coming to the Twins.  Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is at the opposite spectrum. He's just beginning his career. This will be his second big league start. He blanked Tampa Bay in 6 1/3 innings six days ago.  I like Woodruff's potential. But he's going to go through growing pains. He was 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 Triple A starts before coming up. The combination of Woodruff's wonderful debut and Colon's presence has created a line that is too high. So I'll make a value play and go with the 'dog at a nice mid-sized price.

Taking the Over with the Astros often is a solid play. It has won 71 percent of the time during Houston's past 32 games. I see it winning again today. The Astros have the No. 1 offense in baseball. They certainly should put up a lot of runs against Miguel Gonzalez, one of the worst pitchers in the league. Gonzalez just gave up seven runs in less than two innings during his past start six days ago.  There's a good chance the Astros get back All-Star George Springer today, too. He's been out since July 25 due to a quad injury.  Collin McHugh has looked outstanding in two starts back from an elbow injury that had kept him out the entire season. Returning from an elbow injury is tricky, though. McHugh is coming off a season-high 100 pitches. I wouldn't be surprised if some regression occurs for him during this start. The White Sox changed the name of their field to Guranteed Rate Field. But it still plays well to the hitters during the summer when the humidity really kicks in. The weather forecast calls for winds to be blowing out to left at around eight mph. 

Better starting pitcher. Better spot. A key injury. Those are the main factors why I like St. Louis to beat Kansas City today. The Royals will be without catcher Salvador Perez, who is on the DL after suffering a right intercostal strain this past Friday.  The Royals had to play a doubleheader Sunday. Their bullpen is fatigued.  The Cardinals have the stronger pitching matchup here with Carlos Martinez facing Ian Kennedy.  Martinez has pitched better than his 7-9 record shows. He's a "B" pitcher in my ratings. Kennedy doesn't rate that high especially at Kauffman Stadium where he carries a 13-game home winless streak. That includes an 0-4 mark this year with a 4.98 ERA.  Kennedy doesn't have a good track record versus the Cardinals either going 3-5 with a 7.20 ERA in eight previous starts.
   

I find value at this high of a price in fading Trevor Williams, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.  Detroit is 6-3 in its last nine games. Pittsburgh is 5-9 in its past 14 games. The Pirates have lost in seven of Williams' last nine starts.  I've always liked Zimmermann, who can be extremely effective when healthy. Zimmermann is healthy again and pitching well with three quality starts in his last four outings. He held the Yankees scoreless in seven innings during his past start last Wednesday. Zimmeran gave up six hits, no walks and struck out six. "Other than the one start ... I've been pretty good," Zimmermann was quoted as saying about his past appearances. "I feel strong, and the ball is coming out of my hand much better than it did in the first half of the season." 

I'm certainly not going to stand in the way of a freight train known as the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of 43 of their last 50 games. I do think the Mets, though, are going to be fired-up and sharp for this nationally televised game. They have been embarrassed by the Dodgers all season going 0-6 against them.  So I don't care to lay a huge price with LA. I do believe strongly, however, that this will be a tight, lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives.  Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is the healthiest he has been in two years and it's showing. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last four starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Giants last Sunday. He is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Mets.  The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen in the majors with a 2.95 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen is rested.  The Mets are averaging 2.3 runs in their last three games. New York has scored four or less runs in seven of their last 10 home games. Citi Field is more pitcher than hitter park. Often teams rest a key hitter or two on Sunday. Yoenis Cespedes is the Mets' top power hitter and he hasn't homered in 14 straight games at Citi Field.  A key to having this game stay under is Mets starter Steven Matz and New York's defense, which has improved with slick fielding rookie Amed Rosario the everyday shortstop now. Matz is one of the more promising lefties in baseball. He often gets overshadowed because of the Mets' massive talent of young starting pitchers. Matz is 2-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.50 ERA in three starts.  Matz held the Rockies to three runs in five innings during his last start, which was this past Tuesday. That game was at Coors Field. This one is at a much better pitching venue. 

These teams easily exceeded nine runs on Friday with the Angels winning, 8-6. I see more of the same today. Oakland is averaging 5.2 runs in its last seven games. The Angels are averaging 7.2 runs during their last seven games. The bullpens are bad and the starting pitching matchup is Paul Blackburn versus Tyler Skaggs.  Blackburn gave up five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Giants during his last outing this past Monday. The Giants have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball and are last in homers. Now Blackburn is going to have to deal with a much better offensive team, a DH and a red-hot Mike Trout, who is 13-for-30 riding a seven-game hitting streak.  Not much is being expected from Skaggs, who last started on April 29. He's been out with an oblique strain. He's 0-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 6.75 ERA in three starts.  These two teams have gone Over 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games in Los Angeles. 

Lance Lynn is very underrated. He ranks in the top six in the National League in both ERA and batting average against holding opponents to a .210 average. Lynn has a good history versus the Reds, too, with a 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances, including 16 starts. Lynn had a 1.47 ERA in six July starts.  He is more trustworthy than Reds rookie starter Luis Castillo. I like the potential of Castillo. But he's coming up on his career high in innings and has yet to win at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA.  Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 home games.  It's a big plus if the Cardinals get back catcher Yadier Molina as expected. He pinch-hit Friday after getting banged-up on Thursday. 

Put two hot offenses against two vulnerable starting pitchers and weak bullpens and reaching double-digits shouldn't be a problem.  The A's are averaging 5.8 runs in their last five games. The Angels have been even better averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games.  I had high hopes at the start of the season for A's starter Jharel Cotton. Those hopes certainly have been misplaced. Cotton has been injured and ineffective this year. He has a 5.49 ERA and didn't look good in his first start off the DL. He gave up five run on five hits - including two homers - and five walks in only 3 2/3 innings against the Twins this past Sunday.  Cotton is 0-2 versus the Angels this season giving up 12 runs in 9 1/3 innings.  Scribner has made just two big league appearances, both in relief. He had a 4.16 ERA in Triple A this season. Not much is expected from him here. The offenses will be helped, too, by a slight breeze blowing out. 

Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks.  This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick.  I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson.  The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too. 

This is a lost season for the Giants. But I do believe the Giants will be fired up here to earn a split of their four-game series against cross-town rival Oakland.  I do not like to lay a price with San Francisco, but my urge to fade to Kendall Graveman and the A's on the road outweighs that concern.  Oakland has the second-worst road mark in the majors at 17-35. Graveman hasn't pitched in the majors since May 19 because of a strained shoulder. His minor league rehab numbers weren't encouraging at 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and opponents batting .383 against him.  The Giants have seen Graveman twice, the last time coming on June 28 of last season. Graveman has an 11.37 ERA versus San Francisco.  The A's have never faced Ty Blach, who pitched very well in his last outing giving up two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers on the road this past Saturday. 

Jerad Eickhoff is way below the radar. He started the season by losing his first seven decisions. Then he went on the DL with a back injury. But in his last five starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. 

 This is the Phillies' third game on the West Coast so they should be adjusted to the time change by now. The Phillies had won five in a row before venturing on their current trip.  Philadelphia also is facing Parker Bridwell, who is due for serious regression. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. I don't think he's nearly as good as those numbers. 

 I'm not a fan of either starting pitcher, Sal Romano or Chad Kuhl.  Romano will be making his fifth big league start. He's given up 13 walks in those starts spanning 18 1/3 innings. He's still experimenting with his pitches. The Reds are going to be patient with him. So he's living and learning.  Kuhl has a 4.84 ERA and also has been dealing with control issues. He walked five batters in 5 1/3 innings during his last start against the weak-hitting Padres in San Diego this past Friday.  The Reds rank 12th in the majors in homers. They've already smacked five homers in the first two games of this series. Both teams are thin and weak in middle relief. 
   

Vance Worley has a reserved spot on my list of "F" starting pitchers. Not only do I want to fade Worley, but I want to back the Nationals after they blew a 6-0 lead to the Marlins Tuesday. I can do it at a cheap lay price, too. It just takes a little faith in Nationals pitcher A.J. Cole and a strong belief Washington is going to hammer Worley and a battered Marlins bullpen that has lost their top relievers through trade and injuries.  The Nationals are the best offensive team in the National League. They are 7-2 the past nine times against a righty starter.  Cole looked sharp in his lone big league start this year holding the Phillies to one run on six hits in six innings back on May 6. The Nationals haven't needed him since with their pitching depth. 

The Nationals rank second only to the Astros in the major offensive categories. The Marlins are averaging 7.8 runs during their last six games if you discount a 1-0 loss to southpaw Gio Gonzalez two days ago.  I have to believe these teams can combine for double-digit runs in a pitching matchup of A.J. Cole versus Vance Worley.  Cole hasn't started in the big leagues since May. He had a 5.66 ERA in the minors at Triple-A Syracuse. The Marlins saw Cole last September and scored six runs on 10 hits off him in seven innings.  Like a bad penny that gets passed around, journeyman Worley has resurfaced in the majors. He holds a 6.42 ERA and is backed by a shaky Marlins bullpen that has been gutted by injuries and a trade of closer A.J. Ramos. The Nationals have fortified their bullpen, but it carries a high fatigue rating as Washington relievers went seven innings yesterday.  

The price has come down a little, which is enough for me to get involved backing the Twins here in this day game.  Minnesota has a better road mark than the Padres' home record. Minnesota is the better team and has the better starting pitcher going in a matchup of Ervin Santana versus Luis Perdomo.  Santana is having an All-Star season. He's been at his best on the road and in day games - both of which occur here. Santana is 7-2 with a 2.59 away from home this season and is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA during day action. He also is 2-0 lifetime with a 1.69 ERA in four starts against San Diego.    Opposing hitters are batting just .217 against Santana. The long ball has hurt Santana, but he'll be helped here pitching at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park.  Perdomo is a young up-and-down pitcher. He's not nearly in Santana's class yet. Perdomo has pitched slightly worse at Petco Park with a 4.76 home ERA this year.  The Twins get a boost to their speed game and outfield defense with the return of centerfielder Byron Buxton. 

Erasmo Ramirez is a bottom of the barrel starter/reliever type and Nick Martinez is even worse drawing an "F" rating from me.  Ramirez has a 4.80 ERA. He hasn't pitched more than three innings since June 21. He'll be on a 60-to-80 pitch count. So the Rangers offense, which ranks No. 2 in homers and seventh in runs, will get to feast on Ramirez and Seattle's middle relief. Martinez is back up in the majors because Yu Darvish was traded to the Dodgers Monday. He hasn't started in the big leagues since June 25. His ERA is 4.56. Seattle ranks in the top 12 in batting average and runs despite playing in a pitcher's park. Now they're in a hitter's park that plays better to the hitters during the hot summer.  The over has cashed nine of the last 12 times the teams have played each other in Arlington. The forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing in. This is more than offset with Jeff Nelson slated to be behind the plate. The over has cashed 57 percent of the time Nelson has been the home plate umpire during the last two years. 

Have to look to fade the Brewers in a chalk role here as Milwaukee has fallen back to Earth dropping 11 of its last 14 and nine of its last 11. The Brewers are an amazing 0-for-31 with runners in scoring position.  While the Brewers are slipping, the Cardinals are coming on winning five of their last seven to move within 4 1/2 games of the Cubs. Their outfield should get a boost with the expected return today of Stephen Piscotty off the DL.  Carlos Martinez is a stud pitcher who is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in 21 career appearances versus the Brewers. St. Louis is 21-9 in his last 30 starts when he pitches on five day's rest. St. Louis also is 5-1 the past six times Martinez has faced Milwaukee.  Jimmy Nelson has had a nice comeback season. But he's 0-8 with a 7.01 ERA lifetime mark against the Cardinals in 11 games. The Brewers are 3-7 in Nelson's last 10 starts against St. Louis. Nelson is 0-1 in two starts against the Cardinals with a 5.73 ERA this year. 

I rate Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton as a pair of "C" range pitchers making this total too low especially considering how bad the Astros bullpen has been lately. Tampa Bay has a weak bullpen, too. Cobb has been pitching well, but faces the best offense in baseball here. I expect the Astros to score a lot returning to hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park following an embarrassing 13-1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.  The Astros saw Cobb back in April getting to him for four runs on nine hits in six innings during a 6-3 win. The Over is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times Cobb has made a road start versus an above .500 opponent.  Morton has been pitching well, too, but he has a 5.25 career ERA versus the Rays in two starts. He gave up five runs in five innings in his previous start to Tampa Bay in April.  The Rays are anticipating getting back Logan Morrison today. He leads the team in homers and RBI's.  The two teams have gone over in each of their past six meetings. 

We have three major things going for us in trying to get these two teams to reach double-digits in runs today.  No. 1: Bartolo Colon. He's old, overweight and washed-up. The 44-year-old has given up  at least seven hits in 13 of his 15 starts. His ERA is a fat 8.00. The Braves finally gave up on him. I was surprised the Twins picked him up. Colon has made two starts for Minnesota giving up a combined seven runs and 16 hits in nine innings. Said Twins manager Paul Molitor about Colon. "...We're just hoping that each out there for us he's a little bit better." Not exactly high praise, or showing a lot of confidence.  No. 2: The bullpens. They are both brutal. The Twins only have one good reliever, Brandon Kintzler, and he couldn't pitch Saturday because of a heavy workload. He's a trade candidate, too, raising the possibility that he might be held out a second straight game. The A's' bullpen was gutted when they dealt Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to Washington. Oakland doesn't have reliable setup men now, nor a closer.  No. 3: Jharel Cotton. He's going to get the start instead of Sonny Gray. Cotton is a rookie with some potential so he's a bit of a wildcard. This is his first start since July 3 when he went on the DL for a blister on his right thumb. Cotton has been disappointing with a 5.17 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The Twins got a whiff of him back in May scoring three runs, including hitting two homers, in six innings.  The Twins have scored at least five runs in four of their last seven games.  There will be a slight wind blowing out to right. Home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi is neutral as far as over/unders. 

Look for the Pirates to beat the Padres here in a pitching matchup of Ivan Nova versus rookie Dinelson Lamet.  Nova is a solid pro. This is an important game for the Pirates, who had been playing well until getting nipped by the Padres last night. Nova's last start came at Coors Field and he struggled just like many pitchers when throwing at the league's best offensive stadium.  Nova should fare much better against a much weaker offense and at the premier's pitcher's park in the league, Petco Park. I consider Nova to be a "B" level pitcher. Pittsburgh is 5-0 the past five times Nova has thrown on five days rest.  Lamet has intriguing potential, but he's not ready for the majors. Opponents have caught on to him. Lamet's ERA in his last three starts is 7.36.  The Padres are vulnerable in the bullpen, too, with new closer Brad Hand having pitched and gotten saves during the past three days. So he might be unavailable. Even if he's called on to pitch again, he'll carry a high fatigue rating. Hand is by far the Padres' best relief pitcher. He's also rumored to be on the trading block. The Padres' bullpen is thinned out with former closer Bradon Maurer traded to Kansas City. 

It's good value to take a price on the Rays in a pitching matchup of youngsters Blake Snell versus Caleb Smith.  Snell has pitched better than his 0-6 record shows. Snell held Baltimore to one run in seven innings during his last start this past Monday. He has a 2.38 career ERA in five games against the Yankees.  The lefthanded Smith has a 8.10 ERA. This will be his second big league start. He allowed four runs on five hits and one walk in 3 2/3 innings during his debut against the Mariners at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field this past Sunday.  The Rays have won five of the last seven times they've gone against a southpaw starter. 

The teams met opening week at BC and the Eskimos won, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point road 'dogs. Edmonton still hasn't lost. The Eskimos are 4-0.  So why fade the lone unbeaten team in the CFL?  The short answers are the Lions are the better team right now, Edmonton is due to lose with its four victories coming by a combined 12 points for an average win of three points and BC revenge motivation.  The Eskimos have covered only three of their last 12 home games. BC has won four in a row. The Lions have won and covered all three of their road games beating Toronto by 13, Montreal by seven and Hamilton by 15.  BC has improved since its Week 1 loss to Edmonton. QB Travis Lulay has been a revelation filling in for injured starter Jonathon Jennings. The Lions are averaging 43 points during their last two games with Lulay behind center. BC's secondary also has shown major improvement.  Edmonton struggled versus winless Hamilton last week before pulling out a 31-28 win. The Eskimos have injuries on defense and will be minus suspended cornerback Garry Peters against BC. 

Danny Salazar came out extremely sharpt in his first game back fron the DL. That was this past Saturday against the Blue Jays. Salazar allowed only one hit in seven scoreless innings. Salazar goes against a White Sox squad that has scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games.  White Sox starter Derek Holland is due to pitch better. He has a strong history against the Indians with a 7-1 mark and 2.27 ERA in 11 starts spanning 67 innings. Both teams rank among the bottom 11 in homers and their hitters will be dealing with a wind blowing in at 16 mph.  

Montrea leads the CFL in rushing. The Alouettes are the only team averaging more than 100 yards on the ground. This isn't a big deal because the CFL is a passing league with probably around 70 percent of the plays being passes.  But the Alouettes' sleepy passing attack came to life last week with veteran Darian Durant throwing for 452 yards. Montreal produced 27 first downs and nearly 500 yards of offense against the defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks in a 24-19 loss.  Montreal features a tough defense. That hasn't been the problem for the 2-3 Alouettes If they can get their passing game going - which showed definite signs of that last week - they could win this game straight-up.  The Alouettes have a bye next week so they will be going all out here.  Winnipeg has been inconsistent on offense and have gotten hit by injuries on defense. They've also faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league so the Alouettes should be able to establish a balanced attack making things easier for Durant. 
  

Under the total often is the way to go in these early start time get away day games where everyday players frequently get rested. I believe that will be the case in this matchup. Marcus Stroman has become Toronto's ace and Oakland's Sean Manaea is underrated. Manaea hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in five of his last six starts. His day time ERA is 3.64. Toronto is a very overrated offensive club ranking 27th in runs and batting average.   Stroman has been dominant his past three starts with a 0.84 ERA. He has allowed only four earned runs during his past five starts giving up 26 hits in 34 innings. I don't think it's a stretch to say he's on the verge of stardom.  Stroman also draws a weak-hitting opponent. Oakland is 25th in runs and 30th in batting. The A's are averaging only two runs per game during their last four games.  Note the conditions, too. The roof is going to be closed at Rogers Centre for this game, which is a plus for the under. The slated home plate umpire is Will Little. The under has cashed 56 percent of the time the past two years when he's been the home plate ump.

The Dodgers are just 5-4 in their last nine games if asked to lay 1 1/2 runs - and that's not with righthander Brock Stewart pitching.  Stewart is making his first start of the year with Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy sidelined. Stewart made five starts last year and had a 6.38 ERA. He made four minor league starts this year and didn't complete four innings in any of them. This is likely to be Stewart and a bunch of middle relievers for the Dodgers. I feel fortified to step in against the Dodgers in this situation - especially backed by 1 1/2 runs.  The Twins have the fifth-best road record in the league at 26-19. They are 21-8 in their last 29 road games versus a righty starter.  MInnesota is going with two-time All-Star Ervin Santana, who is having one of his best seasons going 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Santana isn't pitching as well as he did during the first two months of the season, but he's a tough veteran who knows how to pitch and should be pumped for this matchup.  The Twins have won seven of Santana's last nine starts and should have slugging third baseman Miguel Sano back in their lineup.   

The Rangers suffered a frustrating loss to the Marlins last night in their first game back in Arlington returning from a 10-game road swing that concluded this past Sunday.  I see the Rangers more relaxed and focused now in their second home game following that extended trip. Texas is four games above .500 at home while the Marlins are three games below .500 on the road.  I'm willing to lay this price backing Cole Hamels against Dan Straily. I respect Straily, but I really like Hamels here. Hamels had his streak of 24 scoreless innings snapped against the Orioles in his last start when he was hammered for seven runs in 5 1/3 innings.  The Orioles have been hot, though, and Hamels still has a 2.96 ERA for the month. The Rangers are 21-5 in Hamels' last 26 home games. The Rangers have been absolutely dominant when Hamels pitches at home against sub .500 opponents winning 13 of the past 14 times. Look for that trend to hold up here. 

This may be the only time I lay a road price with the A's all season, but I want Sonny Gray in a pitching matchup against Cesar Valdez.  Gray is pitching great - 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his last five starts - and is sure to be pumped in what very well could be his final start in an Oakland uniform.  Valdez is more relief pitcher than starter. He's a journeyman who the A's designated for assignment earlier this season. So Oakland hitters know him. The right-hander has made just three big league starts. Valdez has a 6.92 ERA in those starts. He's filling in here for injured Aaron Sanchez.  The A's have won nine of the last 12 times they've faced a righty starter. They also are 4-0 the past four times Gray has gone against Toronto.  The Blue Jays are going to be sellers, too, at the trade deadline just like the A's. Even with Oakland's terrible road record, I still think the A's are a good price here with Gray pitching. 

Memo to the oddsmakers. St. Louis isn't very good. The Cardinals are four games below .500. Colorado is 16 games above .500 and doesn't deserve to be mid-sized 'dogs facing Mike Leake.  Leake is 1-6 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 10 starts. The problem for Leake is physical, which he admits. Leake said he contracted shingles late last season causing him to lose strength and weight. He said he hasn't fully recovered from that. Leake began the year hot, but sure looks worn down now.  "All I know is my body feels different every start," Leake was quoted as saying. "I try to do the best I can with what I'm given each day. It's a matter of getting these kinks worked out and being able to get the strength back."  Leake hasn't been able to do that in his past 10 starts. He's facing a hot Rockies offense that is averaging 10.5 runs in its last seven games. Leake has a bad history, too, versus Colorado with a 7.52 ERA in four career starts.  Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela won his last start beating the Padres this past Tuesday and shut out the Cardinals for eight innings in a 10-0 victory on May 26. The Cardinals had problems with Senzatela's sinker.  This is a bad spot also for the Cardinals. They played in the Sunday night game last night and could be without leadoff hitter, Matt Carpenter. He left last night's game in the second inning with a quad injury. 

There are frequent scheduling quirks in the CFL. This is one of them - and it favors Toronto in a big way. Ottawa will be playing for the third time in 11 days. During this span, the Redblacks hosted Toronto - losing by a point - lost at Edmonton and got past Montreal at home this past Wednesday. They are 1-7 ATS following a victory and facing serious fatigue issues.  The Argonauts, on the other hand, last played on July 13. They will be the far fresher team and have the advantage of being home with plenty of time to game plan.  Toronto coach Marc Trestman is good at three things - devising game plans, working with quarterbacks and coaching in the CFL. He's much more in his element in the CFL than he was in the NFL. It's probably not a coincidence Ricky Ray has passed for 300 yards in each of Toronto's first four games. The last time Ray, a probable CFL Hall of Famer, had a string of four straight 300-yard passing games was 2009.   Toronto has the better defense sparked by linebacker Bear Woods, who is averaging nearly seven tackles a game.  Ray is going to put up points against Ottawa. Toronto beat the Redblacks in Ottawa earlier this month. Now the Argonauts are home and given the situational circumstances, should have little difficulty winning again.  

This is not a fade on Corey Kluber, who is in great form and one of the five best pitchers in baseball. But Kluber is pitching on extra rest after experiencing a stiff neck during his last start on July 15. Kluber also has more trouble against the Blue Jays than any other team with a 1-3 lifetime record and 5.34 ERA in five career starts.  Cleveland actually has lost in four of Kluber's last five starts. The Indians have a losing record at home and haven't swept an opponent at Progressive Field all season.  Toronto starter southpaw J.A. Happ is pitching on four days rest. The Blue Jays are 16-5 the past 21 times when Happ has pitched on four days rest. Happ is pitching well with a 2.43 ERA during his last seven starts. Happ is 3-1 career-wise versus Cleveland with a 2.86 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. The Blue Jays are going through a disappointing season, but they would be 5-2 in their last seven games if given 1 1/2 runs. Cleveland would be 2-7 in its last nine games if laying 1 1/2 runs. 

Corey Kluber is an absolute monster, one of the five best pitchers in baseball. Kluber is in great form, too, with a 1.56 ERA in his last nine starts since returning from the DL. Opposing hitters are batting .160 against him during this span. Kluber also has a mind-boggling 94 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings in this time frame, walking only 11.   Kluber is being opposed by southpaw J.A. Happ, who has a 2.43 ERA during his last seven starts. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during these outings. Happ has a lifetime 2.86 ERA against the Indians in six appearances, including five starts. The under is 18-7-3 (72 percent) in Happ's past 28 road starts.  The under has cashed 13 of the past 19 times the Indians have faced a lefty starter at home. This can be partially explained by the Indians being weaker against lefties than righties.  These teams have a history of playing below the total when meeting with nine of the last 11 in the series going under.  Because it's Sunday there's also a possibility of regular players getting a day off. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing in. 

The Rays lost a tough one at home to the Rangers Friday. I expect them to bounce back strong today with Chris Archer on the mound. So does the oddsmaker. I'm not going to lay that high vig, but I want the Rays going for me today so I'm playing them on the run line at a plus price.  Archer has had eight quality starts in his last 11 outings. He pitches deep into games, too, going at least six innings during his past 11 starts. This is important because the Rays bullpen, while strong at the end, are vulnerable in middle relief.  Tampa Bay has won seven of Archer's last 10 home starts. The Rangers' current linup is batting just .206 career-wise against Archer. The free-swinging Rangers are a bad fit against Archer, who ranks fourth in the majors in strikeouts.  Look for the Rays to go to town against Andrew Cashner, who is 2-6 with a 4.33 ERA on the road this season. The Rangers have dropped seven of their past nine road games when Cashner has started. The Rays have hit the fourth-most homers in baseball and rank in the top five when going against righthanded pitchers. 

Try not to be misled by the Padres' 12-9 victory against the Giants last night. These are two weak-hitting teams playing in a pitcher's park.  I expect far less fireworks this afternoon. San Diego ranks last in runs and batting average. The Giants have hit the fewest homers in the majors and are second-to-last in runs.  Padres starter Luis Perdomo has a career 2.81 ERA in four outings at AT&T Park. Until last night's game, the Padres' bullpen had a 1.77 ERA against the Giants in 33 1/3 innings this season. San Diego has some underrated setup men.  Giants starter att Moore has been a major disappointment this season. Moore pitches far better at spacious AT&T Park, though, with a 4.20 home ERA compared to 7.61 on the road. He finally pitched a strong game in his last outing holding the Indians to two earned runs in seven innings. So maybe Moore is ready to turn the corner at last. Slated home plate umpire Jeff Nelson has been involved in more unders than overs this year.  

I like the Mariners as a home 'dog here in a matchup of righty Andrew Moore versus over-the-hill lefty CC Sabathia.  Moore has walked just two batters in 24 innings. He's prone to the long ball, but will be helped pitching in spacious Safeco Field. The Yankees have lost 17 of the past 23 times when facing a righty starter. The Mariners have a winning mark versus southpaws and the offense to do damage against Sabathia. I don't like the Yankees when they play on the West Coast where they are 2-6 this season. The Yankees also have a major concern at closer where Aroldis Chapman hasn't looked right since returning from the DL following rotator cuff inflammation. Chapman has a 5.93 ERA in his last 13 1/2 innings giving up 18 hits and eight walks during this span. His fastball has lost steam and is secondary pitches haven't been consistent. 

Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year.  Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark.  BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone.  The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites.  The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench.  That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise. 

The Orioles have outscored the Rangers, 25-4, in winning the first three games of this home series.  That's why the Orioles opened a favorite today against Texas. They shouldn't have. Not with Cole Hamels going for the Rangers and Wade Miley pitching for Baltimore. Hamels has it all over Miley in this battle of southpaws.  The Orioles have a losing record versus lefty starters. Now they have to deal with Hamels, the hottest pitcher in baseball. Hamels hasn't allowed a run in 21 straight innings. The Rangers are 19-9 in his past 28 road starts.  Miley began the year with a 2.82 ERA in his first 11 starts. The career journeyman was in line for a serious regression - and it has happened. During his last eight starts, Miley has posted a 10.19 ERA. He has a 1.80 WHIP on the season and a bad track record against the Rangers with a career mark of 1-5 and 5.75 ERA. 

Much better team and a superior pitcher going puts me on the Nationals at this low lay price. Washington is 21 games above .500 - and that's with the worst bullpen in the majors. The Nationals have Gio Gonzalez going and a fortified bullpen with the additions of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. The Nationals have won six in a row.  The Angels are four games below .500, have lost seven of their past 10 and pitching minor leaguer Alex Meyer. The Nationals are the second-best hitting team in baseball. Meyer has control problems. That's not a good combination.  Gonzalez is having his best season since 2012 when he went 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA. He's 8-4 this season with a 2.66 ERA and ranks 17th in strikeouts. Mike Trout only is 1-for-11 lifetime against Gonzalez with six strikeouts. Bryce Harper is supposed to get a day off, but the Angels will be without their leadoff hitter, Cameron Maybin, who suffered a sprained knee last night and will be out at least a couple of weeks.   

The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks are 0-3-1. But that record is deceiving. They've played tough competition and their three defeats have come by a combined seven points. Ottawa could be unbeaten instead of winless with a few breaks.  Ottawa led Toronto by 11 points two weeks ago. The Redblacks built a 9-0 lead versus Edmonton on the road last week. The Redblacks aren't going to let offensively-challenged Montreal off the floor if they go out in front as anticipated.  Both teams played this past Friday. Montreal, however, has to travel on the short week. The Alouettes are off a huge home upset victory against Calgary. They don't have much time to refocus. They also are 3-7 ATS following a victory.  Ottawa has the better offense and enough defense to take advantage of the Alouettes' weak offense, the worst in the CFL.  Montreal averaged only 17.3 points during its first three games, scoring just four touchdowns. The Alouettes put up 30 points on Calgary in Week 4 this past Friday, but their offense produced just three touchdowns. So I'm not convinced their offensive struggles have ended.  Ottawa has covered in six of its past seven games against Montreal. 

Neither Jordan Montgomery nor Jose Berrios have been in good form recently. But Berrios is the better pitcher, the Twins opened as home 'dogs and the spot is ripe to go against the Yankees here.  New York beat Minnesota last night, but is just 10-21 in its last 31 games. The Yankees are 1-9 following a victory. They have lost five of Montgomery's past seven road starts.  The Yankees are excited about acquiring Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox on Tuesday. That's a great move for them, but that buzz is a distraction for this game.  Berrios is a stud prospect. He's been tremendous at home this season going 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA. The Twins are 9-4 in his last 13 starts.  Montgomery doesn't have Berrios' high ceiling. He has a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts giving up 18 hits and four walks in 13 2/3 innings during this span, 

Not only do we have two bad pitchers here - Blake Snell versus Chris Smith - but the wind blowing out to right at 15 mph and Bill Welke set to be the home plate umpire.  The over has cashed 65 percent of the time Welke has been the home plate ump during the last three years at 47-25.  Snell is 0-5 with a 4.85 ERA in 10 starts this year. He's given up 34 walks in 52 innings. The over has cashed in six of Snell's past seven starts.  Tampa Bay has hit the third-most homers in baseball and draws Smith, a career minor leaguer and coverted reliever. The 36-year-old Smith has made only one career big league start. He entered this season with a 4.58 career ERA in 63 relief appearances.  Smith only is drawing the start because Jharel Cotton is on the DL. Until this season, Smith hadn't been in the big leagues since 2010. Smith doesn't expect to pitch deep into the game and the A's bullpen suffered a huge hit after trading Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to the Nationals. 

It took up until the All-Star break, but the Cubs are finally coming on. Chicago is unbeaten since the All-Star Game going 4-0. The Cubs have won their past five road contests and are 15-6 on the season versus lefty starters, including winning their last seven against southpaws.  Atlanta is pitching rookie lefty Sean Newcomb. He looked good during his first four big league starts, but the league has figured him out. Newcomb has made two starts this month and is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA giving up 11 runs in 7 1/3 innings. The Braves are playing with a thin bullpen having just recalled hitters Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana. They are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino, perhaps their most talented reliever.  The Cubs are averaging 7.7 runs in their last four games.  Veteran John Lackey gets the start for Chicago. Lackey is having a down season bothered by right foot plantar fascitis. But he has the veteran savvy and a better bullpen going for him that Newcomb lacks.  Lackey also has a 2.59 career ERA versus the Braves in four starts. 

Like a bad penny, Edwin Jackson keeps turning up on big league rosters. The 33-year-old Jackson has pitched for 12 major league teams. Now he's back with the Nationals, a team he pitched for in 2012, following the loss of Joe Ross for the season.   The washed up Jackson had an ERA of nearly 6.00 last season pitching for the Marlins and Padres. His ERA this season is 7.20 before the Orioles designated him for assignment where he was picked up by Washington. The Nationals' bullpen ranks last with a 5.31 ERA.  The Nationals also are going to have to deal with Mike Trout, who is back after missing 39 games due to a thumb injury.  Angels starter Jesse Chavez is 5-10 with a 4.99. He's in such terrible form that the Angels can't be backed here against Jackson. Chavez has a 6.00 ERA in his last six starts. He's allowed 33 hits, including five homers, during his last 30 innings. The Nationals have the second-best offense in baseball behind only the Astros.  The will be a wind of about eight mph blowing out to left. 

Neither starting pitcher is in good form although both teams have been playing well lately. I just believe it's worth it to get involved with the Rays, the superior team who also have the veteran starter going.  Oakland is in full rebuilt mode. The A's just got considerably weaker in their bullpen dealing Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals for struggling reliever Blake Treinen and minor league prospects.  Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi has a 4.63 ERA and is prone to the long ball. He'll be helped here pitching in the spacious Oakland Coliseum.  A's rookie starter Daniel Gossett has a 6.23 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA when pitching at home. Gossett also is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts. 

The Tigers are average offensively. The Royals are well below average offensively - ranking 26th in runs - but are the top fielding team in the American League.  The total has been bet up. I'm not buying into that especially with Jason Vargas pitching for the Royals. He has the best home ERA in the AL at 1.84. The under has cashed in 10 of his last 13 starts at Kauffman Stadium.  The more difficult part of this Under equation is Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann. He's not in good form with a .9.95 ERA in his last three starts. Zimmermann, though, is a better pitcher than that and he has great career numbers against the Royals with a 1.44 ERA in four career starts versus them. That ERA shrinks even more to 1.04 if you go back just to last season. 

Zack Godley is an under-the-radar starter with a 2.58 ERA in 11 starts. That's the lowest ERA among Arizona's starters, which include strikeout studs Zach Greinke and Robbie Ray.  Godley hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his starts this season. Arizona is 4-1 in Godley's past five road starts. Godley is in much better current form than Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia. Godley has yielded four runs in his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. He's given up five hits with 13 strikeouts during this time frame. Godley, a native of South Carolina, will have extra motivation with many of his family and friends making the trip to Atlanta to watch him today.  The much injury-prone Garcia could be nearing the end at 31. He has a 9.41 ERA in his last four starts with opponents batting .333 against him during this span. Garcia hasn't won during his past seven starts.  The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They should be even better offensively now that star outfielder A.J. Pollock is back in the lineup. The Braves have surprised with their offense because they have been merely average - ranking 16th in runs scored - instead of near the bottom. They are not a top-seven offense, though, like Arizona and rank 27th in homers.  Arizona has more depth than Atlanta, which is especially important on Sunday when teams normally rest some starters. The Braves are missing injured setup man Arodys Vizcaino and closer Jim Johnson carries a fatigue rating having worked an inning each of the past two days. 

Madison Bumgarner will be making his first big league start since April. It would be surprising to find him anywhere near top form. This total is more in line if Bumgarner was in rhythm and not on a pitch count, which he could be. Bumgarner has struggled, too, against the Padres on the road where he's 4-6 with a 3.97 ERA in his career.  Jhoylys Chacin has pitched extremely well at Petco Park, the premier pitcher's park. But he's still a journeyman pitcher and he's not backed by a strong bullpen. Chacin's ERA on the season is 4.32. The Giants have scored 17 runs in their last three games, an average of 5.6. They just got Eduardo Nunez back from a hamstring injury to ignite their speed game. Bumgarner also is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball with 14 homers during the last four years.  The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing out to right at nine mph. Jim Reynolds is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 53.4 percent of the time Reynolds has been behind the plate during the last three years at 39-34. 

Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin.  But perception doesn't fit reality here.  Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form.  Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them.  The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts.  Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.  The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.

Yes, it's a little disconcerting to lay a small road price with the Giants. But this is the game to do it in. The Giants are the better team and they have the superior pitcher going in a matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Clayton Richard. Cueto isn't elite anymore, but he's better than what he's shown this season. He's due for improvement against this weak hitting Padres team, which ranks last in runs and batting average. He's also pitching on his normal four day's rest. San Francisco is 21-6 the past 27 times when Cueto has pitched on four day's rest.  The Giants' morale should be up with Madison Bumgarner slated to pitch this weekend. The Giants are a prideful team. The Padres are in clear rebuild mode. Cueto is a crafty veteran whose style should prove puzzling to San Diego's many young hitters. Cueto is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 13 career starts versus San Diego.  Richard is who he is, a below average starter with a 4.66 ERA. Richard has close to a 4.00 career ERA against the Giants. 

Ottawa is winless in three games. But the Redblacks could be 3-0. They tied with Calgary, the most impressive team in the CFL in my view, lost to the Stampeders by four on the road and were nipped by one point by Toronto last week. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks are due and desperate for a win. I see the Redblacks coming in with their "A" game against Edmonton, a foe they went 3-0 SU and ATS against last season.  Ottawa is averaging 31.7 points per game, which is second-best in the CFL. Edmonton averages five points fewer per game. The Redblacks have covered 10 of their past 13 road games. The Eskimos have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games and are 2-7 ATS the past nine times when home favorites. 

Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home.  Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them.  The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team.  Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler.  The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season. 
 

I don't see the Marlins sweeping the Giants on the road. The Giants have their best pitcher, Johnny Cueto, going against Jose Urena, who has been pitching decently but is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.  Cueto is healthy after being scratched before his last start this past Thursday against the Tigers due to an inner-ear infection. The Giants desperately need this game, while the Marlins are going to be sellers at the trade dealine.  Cueto has pitched better at home. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts and usually is at his best during day games where he sports a lifetime 2.70 ERA.  The Marlins are 19-25 on the road.  The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series. They are swinging the bats better, though, and have won seven of their last 11. 

The Rockies have a much better lineup than the White Sox and are home facing a pitcher who has never pitched at Coors Field.  So I'm going to get behind Kyle Freeland and back the Rockies against the White Sox, who are 19-30 on the road and have a losing mark in day games. The White Sox are 3-11 the last 14 times they've been on the road facing an opponent with a winning home record.  Colorado is 25-18 at Coors and 22-13 in day action. White Sox starter Carlos Rondon has a tendency to be wild. This is just his third appearance of the season as he makes his way back from bicepts bursitis in his pitching arm.  Freeland is a rookie who has looked good enough to be considered Colorado's second or third-best starter. He is 3-0 with a 2.95 in three interleague starts beating the Twins, Mariners and Indians - three teams all better than the White Sox. 

The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball going 24-4 in their last 28 games.  So why try to buck them here? Let me state the reasons: The Royals may be the second-hottest team at 18-7 in their last 25 games. They are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. The Royals have the hotter starting pitcher going.  Kansas City needs this game knowing it faces Clayton Kershaw and a likely loss on Sunday.  Oh, yes, I'm taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Royals. The Dodgers would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 runs. Each of their last three victories have been by exactly one run.  Ian Kennedy, a native of Southern California, is pitching for the Royals. He is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts. Kennedy is overlooked, but he has been outstanding. Kennedy hasn't surrendered more than six hits during any of his 15 starts. He's holding opponents to a .201 batting average, fourth-best in baseball behind only Max Scherzer, Kershaw and Chris Sale. Those are the three best pitchers in the majors.  Kansas City has won each of Kennedy's past five road starts, too.  The Dodgers are pitching righy Brandon McCarthy. He's been on the DL with a knee strain since June 25. McCarthy looked terrible in his last start, which came at home against Colorado. McCarthy only went three innings giving up five runs (four earned) on four hits and two walks. He also uncorked three wild pitches in one inning. There's a huge question mark about McCarthy's effectiveness now. He shouldn't be this high of a favorite - and taking 1 1/2 runs is added insurance.  McCarthy has a 4.05 career ERA against the Royals in 14 appearances, including six starts. Kansas City has won 12 of the last 17 times it has faced a right-handed starter.      

The Astros have the best offense in baseball ranking first in most of the major categories. The over has cashed eight of the last nine times in Astros game, including the past six. Toronto has scored seven runs in each of its last two games.  I see this strong offensive pattern continuing in a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Aaron Sanchez. Both have been on the DL since May. This is their first starts since then and both likely will be on pitch counts.  Morton last pitched in the big leagues on May 24. He's been out with a right lat strain. Sanchez last pitched in the majors on May 19. He's been sidelined with a right middle finger problem that included a blister and split fingernail. Sanchez made a rehab appearance in Triple A this past Sunday and gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings.  Now Sanchez has to deal with the Astros, who are averaging 7.1 runs in their last 20 games. Only twice during these last 20 games have the Astros failed to score at least four runs. 

I see the Phillies playing better during the second half of the season. I'm going to back them here with their promising rookie, Nick Pivetta, on the mound. The Phillies have some good young hitters, who haven't performed up to expectations this season. Expect better things from Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who are beginning to step up their game. Pivetta was outstanding in his last start this past Sunday against the Mets. He held the Mets to one run in seven innings.  But the biggest reason I like the Phillies' side at this price is a fade on the road Padres and their starting pitcher, Clayton Richard.  The Padres are 14-27 away from Petco Park. They are 7-20 the past 27 times they've been on the road going against a foe with a losing home mark. The Padres might even be feeling a bit fat and happy after winning a road series against the Indians. Richard has never defeated the Phillies. He's 0-4 against them. Richard is in terrible form allowing 12 runs in his past two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Richard has a 4.85 ERA on the season, which stretches to 4.95 when he pitches in the evening.  

Underdogs are a perfect 8-0 ATS heading into this Week 3 of the Canadian Football League season. Look for that 'dog streak to end right here, however, with British Columbia laying a field goal on the road to Montreal.  BC's defense has improved. Montreal's defense was good last year. It's good again this season. However, the Alouettes remain stuck on netural offensively. Montreal has scored just three touchdowns in two games, averaging only 18 points a game. That's not good in the NFL and it's downright terrible in the more wide open CFL.  I like BC quarterback Jonathon Jennings far more than Montreal's past-his-prime QB Darian Durant. Montreal's defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes during the team's 23-19 road loss to Edmonton six days ago. So there could be a fatigue factor.  The Lions' offensive line looked much better in the second half of their 28-15 road victory against Toronto last Friday. Montreal didn't allow Durant to get sacked last week, but surrendered the most sacks last season with 64. The Als have been working hard to establish a ground attack, which has been unsuccessful up to this point. If this continues, their offensive line will get exposed in pass protection when the team is forced to throw more. 

Michael Wacha is pitching his best ball of the season. Tom Koehler is dreadful with a terrible road history. So the choice is simple here - and the price isn't sky high to back the Cardinals. The Marlins are 3-14 in Koehler's last 17 starts and 2-7 during his past nine road starts. Koehler's road ERA is 4.65 during the last three years compared to 3.65 at Marlins Park. He has been so bad this season that the Marlins sent him down to the minors.  Koehler resurfaced for a start this past Saturday against the Brewers. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up seven earned runs on six hits and two walks, including a homer. I'm surprised the Marlins are giving him another shot.  Wacha, meanwhile, is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past three starts. He struck out a season-high nine in a 2-1 win against the powerful Nationals this past Saturday. Wacha threw a four-hit, six-inning shutout against the Nationals.  The Marlins are 17-24 on the road. The Cardinals are 22-8 in Wacha's last 30 starts versus opponents with a sub .500 record.  The Cardinals should have Jedd Gyorko, their leading hitter, back in the starting lineup. 

The combination of two below average pitchers, two hot hitting clubs and a great hitter's ballpark this time of year should ensure this total going Over.  Boston is averaging 8.1 runs in its last six games. Texas is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games.  Doug Fister starts for Boston. Fister is at the end of the line. His ERA is nearly 5.00 and he has a horrible track record versus the Rangers with a 5.19 ERA in 15 career starts. He is 1-4 in Arlington with an 8.59 ERA allowing eight homers in 29 1/3 innings.  The Red Sox should do damage, though, against Andrew Cashner, who has become a journeyman type after one time showing potential at pitcher-friendly Petco Park when he pitched for the Padres. Cashner had to exit his last start this past Thursday against the Indians after his stomach and throwing arm were hit by a piece of Edwin Encarnaction's bat. So Cashner might not even be 100 percent.  The Red Sox have gone over in six of their last seven road games. The over is 16-5-1 in Texas' last 22 home games. This isn't a fluke as Arlington becomes a huge hitter's park during the summer due to weather conditions. Those weather conditions will be in play again today with temperatures in the mid-80s causing extremely high humidity. This more than offsets just a slight wind blowing in. 

I'll take the Giants at this price. San Francisco is playing much better winning six of its last seven. The Giants' power - dormant all season - has finally started to emerge. Veterans Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are showing signs of coming around.  Tigers starter Daniel Norris has looked terrible in his past two starts giving up 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, four walks and three homers.  Detroit is 2-6 in Norris' last eight home starts. The Giants have underachieved all season, but the Tigers aren't playing well losing 11 of their last 16.  Ty Blach pitched well when he first entered San Francisco's rotation. Then he went through a slump. The buy sign is back on Blach after his last start where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory last Wednesday. The Tigers have never faced Blach. Detroit could be without its most feared hitter as Miguel Cabrera left yesterday's game due to tightness in his left hip.

The two teams opened their series with a 1-0 Padres victory last night. That was a pitching matchup of each team's best pitcher, Trevor Cahill against Corey Kluber. The pitching quality drops way down here for Game 2 of the series.  San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is a youngster, who can barely be trusted when pitching at Petco Park. He is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park and going against an above average Indians offense with the DH in play.  The Indians entered last night's game averaging 6.4 runs in their last seven games.  Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer always has been inconsistent. His night ERA is 5.68.  The Padres have punch despite playing half of their games at Petco Park. They rank 18th in homers. Their outfield is upgraded with the recent return of Manuel Margot. 

All aboard. Tickets please. The Homer Bailey fade train is ready for departure and I'm on board again.  This is close to my limit on laying a price, but it's worth it to go against Bailey, who has shown nothing since returning from elbow surgery. This is Bailey's third start. He's given up 14 runs on 12 hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings during his first two starts. Even when he was in his prime, Bailey struggled against the Rockies with a career 4.43 ERA in seven starts.  Now Bailey takes his turn at Coors Field. It's not going to be pretty.  The Rockies have won eight of their last 10 at Coors. Their starter, Kyle Freeland, has pitched better at home with a 3.21 ERA compared to 4.35 on the road. Freeland, unlike Bailey, can be counted on to go at least six innings since he's done that in 11 of his 13 starts. The Reds have dropped 17 of their last 23 games. They could be missing sparkplug Billy Hamilton, who is dealing with a stiff lower back.  

Both starting pitchers, Seth Lugo and Joe Ross, are in good form. Ross has a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts.  The Mets could be down their starting outfield while the Nationals are minus Trea Turner and expected to rest several other starters. Turner was injured five games ago. The Nationals have only played one Over during this span.  This is a very early start even by East Coast time standards so that's another plus for the under.  

Jeff Locke is a near auto-fade as long as the price isn't sky high.  The combination of backing Adam Wainwright at home while going against Locke puts me on St. Louis. The Cardinals have started to play better winning six of their last eight. They have a winning record versus southpaw starters. Locke, a lefty, has yet to win in six starts this season. He has been terrible with a 5.52 ERA. Locker has a 4.98 career ERA versus the Cardinals in 11 appearances, including 10 starts.  Wainwright almost always is good at home. That's certainly been the case this season where he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts at Busch Stadium. Wainwright has a career 2.37 ERA against the Marlins, too.  St. Louis has won 71 percent of Wainwright's past 51 home starts. 

Call it a strong hunch. But I see regression coming for the overacheiving Brewers while the Orioles, their confidence and morale up after a Sunday win against Tampa Bay, make a move starting with this opening game of their seven-game road trip that takes them into All-Star break.  The Brewers have to fill in for injured Chase Anderson. They are going to give lefty reliever Brent Suter a shot here. Don't expect much. Suter had one previous start this season. That came on June 13 against the Cardinals on the road. He gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings.  The Orioles are starting veteran southpaw Wade Miley. I'm not a big fan of Miley, but the Brewers do have a losing record against lefty starters and the Orioles are 6-1 during Miley's last seven interleague starts. 

What we get with the underdog Twins is this: A team that owns the second-best road mark in the majors and has won 18 of its last 27 away games. We also get the opportunity to go against Royals starter Travis Wood at a plus price.  You mean that Travis Wood, the long-time National Leaguer trying to keep his career afloat as a reliever in the American League? Yep, same guy.  Wood hasn't started since 2015 when he was with the Cubs. He's been buried in the Royals bullpen where he sports a 6.28 ERA and a losing record. The Royals are short on pitching after yesterday's doubleheader so they are attempting to prop up Wood.  The Twins are throwing Hector Santiago. Boh starters are southpaws. The Twins have the better record versus lefty starters than Kansas City. The Royals have dropped seven of their last 10 home games when going against a southpaw starter. Minnesota also has defeated Kansas City in nine of the past 12 meetings.  I don't consider Santiage more than a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. But he's fresh. He only got to work two innings in his last start this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. The Twins have the better closer, too.  Bottom line, though, is fading Wood with a strong road team. 

Look for the Cubs-Reds to reach double-digits in runs scored today at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.  It's a good day for the hitters with temperatures in the 80's and the wind blowing out at 10 mph. There are a number of key batters back for each team with the Cubs regaining the services of Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist while Zack Cozart has returned for Cincinnati after missing 10 games with a quad injury.  Cubs starter Jake Arrieta has lost his elite status. He's actually become a below average pitcher with a 4.67 ERA. Arrieta is worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 11 road outings this season. Arrieta allowed the Nationals to steal seven bases against him during his last start. The Reds are tied for the third-most steals in the majors.  Reds starter Tim Adelman has a 4.62 ERA. If it weren't for multiple injuries, he likely wouldn't even be in a starting rotation. Adelman has surrendered at least one homer in each of his last six starts, including seven in his last four starts. He's also walked 13 batters during his last four outings. Giving up walks and homers is especially difficult to overcome at Great American Ball Park. 

The Mets have managed to nip the Phillies by one run during each of the last two days.  There's too much value to pass on the Phillies today in a pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta versus Rafael Montero. Both have ERA's well above 5.00, but I like Pivetta's potential much.  Pivetta was blasted by the Diamondbacks at Arizona in his last start. There's no shame in that with the way the Diamondbacks have played and hit in the desert this season. Before that game, Pivetta had allowed three runs in his previous two starts spanning 13 innings with a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Mets' less than awesome lineup is without Michael Conforto and Neil Walker. Both are on the DL. It wouldn't be surprising if other regulars were rested today. Pivetta has the element of surprise on his side, too, as the Mets have yet to face him. Montero, on the other hand, has a 12.00 ERA in five appearances versus the Phillies. The Mets aren't likely to have closer Addison Reed available because he's pitched each of the last three days.  The Mets have pulled within 8 1/2 games of the NL-East leading Nationals. The Mets play at the Nationals for a three-game series beginning Monday so their focus may not be 100 percent on this game. 

This matchup isn't going to be for the faint of heart. Not with this rivalry game being played on a Saturday night in Regina on Canada Day. It's also the first regular season game to be played at the new $278 million Mosaic Stadium.  Look for plenty of fireworks.  Winnipeg drew the Week 1 bye last week. So the Blue Bombers will be fully freshed and prepared. They return nearly their entire offense, including what should be a much more comfortable and confident Matt Nichols at quarterback. Nichols took over starting duties in Week 6 last year and led Winnipeg to seven consecutive victories and its first playoff berth since 2011. The Blue Bombers scored 30 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games after Nichols became the starter.  Saskatchewan could put up just 16 points in a 17-16 opening-week loss to Montreal. The Alouettes have a tough defense, though. The Roughriders did total 37 first downs. Kevin Glenn went 31-for-44 for 298 yards and two touchdowns. He connected with six different receivers.  The Roughriders have enough offense to take advantage of a Winnipeg defense in transition breaking in three new defensive line starters and lacking depth in the secondary. 

Even though the Cubs lost 5-0 in the series opener yesterday, they have owned the Reds in Cincinnati winning 14 of the past 18 times.  The Cubs are 8-1 following a loss. I expect them to bounce back here against rookie Jackson Stephens, who is making his major-league debut. Stephens was 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in Triple A this season. I'd be surprised if Stephens gets another start for a long time as this looks like a one-shot, desperation spot for the Reds.  The Cubs have a strong bridge to closer Wade Davis. Chicago starter Eddie Butler should be counted on to get through six innings. Butler has a 1.00 ERA during his last two starts. He held the Nationals - the No. 2 scoring team in the majors - scoreless in his last start going five innings at Washington this past Monday.  The Reds are far worse than the Nationals, losers of 15 of their last 20 games. 

Montreal is a better team than perceived and the Alouettes catch the Eskimos in a sandwich spot. So the timing is good to back Montreal catching this many points. Edmonton is coming off an upset road victory against British Columbia to open the season. The Eskimos are in letdown mode and also in a look-ahead spot as they host Grey Cup champion Ottawa the following week. Edmonton has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 home games. The Alouettes have had a good defense the past several years. That hasn't changed. But now Montreal has upgraded its offense bringing in veteran quarterback Darian Durant, rebuilding its offensive line and adding highly-coveted free agent receiver Ernest Jackson. The Alouettes also are flying charter now to their road games instead of commerical. Durant isn't spectacular, but he knows how to manage a game. He's healthy from a knee injury that caused him to miss time during training camp. Durant had a QB rating of 108.7 in leading Montreal past Saskatchewan opening week. He'll face an Eskimos defense down two starting linebackers, including defensive captain JC Sherritt.  Montreal has won and covered its past four away games.

It's not that I don't care for Lance McCullers or Michael Pineda, even though he's in bad form. But when the oddsmaker puts up a total of less than eight involving these two teams I'm going Over.  These are the two best offenses in baseball. Houston leads the majors in batting average and homers. The Astros are No. 3 in runs. They are averaging 6.5 runs in their last 14 games. The Yankees have hit the second-most homers in the majors and are No. 2 in runs and third in batting average.  Pineda is 0-1 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. That's pushed his season ERA up to 4.12. Pineda can be tantalizing, but he's not an ace and not deserving of having a total this low listed by his name against the powerful Astros.  Same with McCullers.Yes, he's promising. But he's not a sure thing. McCullers already has surpassed the 81 innings he pitched last year in the majors. This is just his second start in more than three weeks. 

First off, there's a chance of thunderstorms. That means there's a good chance that the retractable roof is going to be closed at Miller Park, which would be a huge plus for the Under.  But even if it's an open stadium there's only a slight wind. I'm fine, too, with a pair of veteran starters - Edinson Volquez and Matt Garza. Neither pitcher is overly sharp right now. That's why the total is at double-digits. I think that's going to be too high for these two teams in this matchup.  The Marlins have a below average offense. They are have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. Garza has a respectable 3.51 night ERA.  Volquez has had some control issues lately, but he's still held four of his last six opponents to two runs or fewer. 

The time to fade Jimmy Nelson is when he pitches on the road at night. The time to go against Homer Bailey ... is well anytime. 

 The two pitchers face off at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park on a hot, muggy night with temperatures slated to be in the high-to-mid 80's. That kind of weather really favors the hitter.   The Brewers' bullpen has worked 11 innings during the last two days. The Reds' best relief pitcher, closer Raisel Iglesias, has also pitched the last two days. This spot is ripe for fireworks.  Nelson has a 5.06 road ERA compared to 2.64 at home. His nigh ERA is 4.50. During the day his ERA is 1.29. The Reds' lineup just got more powerful as shortstop Zach Cozart is expected back in the lineup today.  Bailey's career may be finished. This will be just his 10th start in three years as he's undergone three arm surgeries. Bailey made his season debut this past Saturday on the road against the Nationals. He couldn't get out of the second inning giving up six hits and three walks. Bailey is 5-8 lifetime against the Brewers with a 4.64 ERA. 
    

The over has cashed in 74 percent of Kyle Gibson's past 25 starts. Gibson is having another Gibson type season with a 6.23 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Gibson walks a lot of batters and yields a lot of homers. A bad combination. David Price isn't nearly the pitcher he once was. He's on pace to give up the most homers of his career per nine innings and has a 4.76 ERA.  Price hasn't gone past the sixth inning in five of his six starts this season. He's allowed three or more earned runs in four of those five outings.  The weather sets up well for the offense, here, too, with temperatures in the high 70's and the wind blowing out to left field at 15-16 mph.  There's a possibility the Red Sox will have Hanley Ramirez back in their lineup. He's missed the past three games with a bruised knee. 

Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price.  Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings.  Matz has two career starts versus the Marlins and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. 

In Nova we trust. Ivan Nova has been very good for Pittsburgh all season. Nova, not Gerrit Cole, is the Pirates' best pitcher. Nova has been especially strong at home with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts this season. 

 It has been a disappointing year for the Pirates so far, but they have stepped up their play recently going 9-7 in their last 16 games.  I think this is a cheap home price to lay with Nova facing Blake Snell, who is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight starts for Tampa Bay. Snell also doesn't go deep into games, putting the vulnerable Rays bullpen into play probably earlier than usual.  Snell has been so bad the Rays sent him to the minors. Now he's back up. Don't expect much.