Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
06-08-19	White Sox -129 v. Royals		2-0	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
The White Sox are 7-0 in Lucas Giolito's last seven starts. It's no fluke as Giolito has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's surrendered just five runs in his last six starts spanning 43 2/3 innings. Giolito is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine lifetime starts against the Royals, including defeating them, 4-3, on May 28 where he recorded 10 strikeouts. Kansas City is 1-7 in Keller's last eight starts. The Royals beat the White Sox, 6-4, on Friday. However, they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and 1-8 following a victory. Kansas City also is 0-8 the past eight times when playing the second game of a series.
06-07-19	Raptors v. Warriors -4.5	Top	105-92	Loss	-104	13 h 59 m	Show
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
06-07-19	A's +105 v. Rangers		5-3	Win	105	11 h 36 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened a wrong favorite here. The A's have dominated the Rangers winning 25 of the past 34 meetings, including going 5-1 during their last six visits to Texas. The Rangers have lost the first game in 11 of their last 14 series. The A's are playing great on the road winning eight of their past nine. The pitching matchup pits Brett Anderson against Lance Lynn. Anderson has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. Lynn faced the A's on April 23 and was hammered for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. I'd rate Anderson a slight edge against Lynn and Oakland with a major edge when it comes to the bullpen.
06-06-19	Blues v. Bruins OVER 5.5		2-1	Loss	-100	26 h 52 m	Show
There have been at least six goals scored in three of the four playoff games in this Stanley Cup Final between the Blues and Bruins. Yet the oddsmaker still has yet to put up higher than 5 1/2 for a total. I see value in taking the Over especially with the series returning to Boston and considering the Bruins' injuries on defense. Boston is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 11 games. The Bruins followed up their Game 2 loss to the Blues by scoring seven goals in Game 3. I'm expecting a big game from the Bruins' top line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand after a 4-2 road loss to the Blues in Game 4 this past Monday. The Bruins have scored on 38 percent of their power play attempts in the series and should get some opportunities being home given the Blues' physical play. St. Louis has scored three or more goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Bruins are likely to be down two defensemen with Zdeno Chara doubtful with a broken jaw and Matt Grzelcyk also not likely to play due to a concussion.
06-06-19	Orioles v. Rangers OVER 10.5	Top	3-4	Loss	-120	13 h 9 m	Show
David Hess shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But he is. So the Over makes a worthy investment in this matchup. Hess has a 7.36 ERA. He's bad and so is Baltimore's bullpen. They are facing a Rangers squad that has scored the second-most runs in the majors. Texas starter Ariel Jurado pitched well in his last start. That was against the weak-hitting Royals, though. He also threw more than 100 pitches for the first time this season. The Rangers' bullpen is every bit as bad as the Orioles' bullpen. The temperature is going to reach the 90's and there will be a slight wind blowing out. So the weather conditions are favorable for the hitters.
06-06-19	Braves v. Pirates UNDER 9.5		1-6	Win	105	7 h 32 m	Show
Hey Kevin Glausman isn't pitching so the Under should be safe. Kidding aside, the pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Chris Archer. Both Foltynewicz and Archer have struggled this season. But lately both have shown signs of pitching much better. Foltynewicz's fastball and slider have been sharper during his last three starts. Archer had his most efficient start of the year against the Brewers this past Friday. Archer has a 1.08 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta. There are other key elements that point to an Under. This is a day game following a late Wednesday night game that didn't end until after midnight due a two-hour rain delay. The Braves didn't have to use any of their best bullpen arms last night. There could be some key bats being rested because of the short turnaround and this being a getaway game. Rob Drake is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 17-9 (65 percent) the past two seasons when he has been behind the plate, including 8-2 Under this year.
06-05-19	Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9	Top	8-3	Win	104	10 h 57 m	Show
Thanks to the Marlins, I cashed an easy Over the total winner on these teams Tuesday. The over/under number is the same as Tuesday. So I am coming right back and going Over again in a pitching matchup of Sandy Alcantara against Jimmy Nelson. Milwaukee has hit the third-most homers in baseball. Alcantara is far from a fixture in Miami's starting rotation. He has a 4.08 ERA, which goes up to 5.11 when he pitches on the road. This will be his sixth away start. Nelson hasn't pitched in the majors during the last 21 months having been sidelined by elbow problems. He had a 3.75 ERA in four Triple A starts. It's asking a lot for Nelson to hold the hot-hitting Marlins in check. Nelson also isn't likely to pitch too far into the game. The Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs in their last 18 games. They have scored a staggering 34 runs in their last three games. The Over is 10-3-1 the past 14 times the teams have met at Miller Park. Note, too, that the slated home plate umpire is Tripp Gibson III. The Over has cashed in 60 percent of Gibson's last 112 appearances behind the plate spanning the last five seasons.
06-04-19	Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9	Top	16-0	Win	105	13 h 24 m	Show
The stats show the Marlins to be last in the league in runs scored averaging 3.3 runs a game. But that is misleading. The Marlins have made several recent changes to their lineup. The result is a much more respectable offense. Miami has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 13 games. The Marlins have plated at least five runs in eight of those games. Miami just scored a combined 18 runs in its last two games - both at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Now the Marlins visit Miller Park, one of the better hitting fields in baseball. The Over is 9-3-1 the past 13 times the teams have played in Milwaukee. The Brewers get to face Pablo Lopez. He has been tough at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, but awful on the road with an 8.26 ERA in six away matchups. The Brewers faced Lopez last July 10. They scored five runs off him on six hits and three walks in six innings. I'm not expecting much from Lopez and a bad Miami bullpen in this road setting. The Brewers rank No. 3 in homers and 10th in runs scored. They are expected to get back Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw to give them a lot of infield power. Chase Anderson will be on the hill for Milwaukee. He's split his time starting and relieving, having yet to throw more than five innings in a game this season. Anderson is a bottom of the rotation starter. So it's certainly not too much to expect each of these two teams to produce at least four runs apiece. Tuesday Free Play Nationals minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.25 (run line) hosting White Sox It has taken two months, but the Nationals are finally rounding into form winning seven of their last nine games. A key for the Nationals is a return to health of a number of key batters. The danger with backing the Nationals - who are averaging 6.5 runs during their last nine games - is their horrible middle and setup relief pitching and Dave Martinez, who I regard as the worst manager in the majors. Those negatives should be overcome by the Nationals hosting the White Sox and going with Stephen Strasburg. I can't lay the asking price, so I'll take a shot on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice. The White Sox just concluded a 6-1 homestand. Prior to that, though, they were outscored 26-5 by the Twins in their last three road games. The White Sox's last nine defeats have all been by more than one run. Chicago is 6-21 in its last 27 interleague road games. The White Sox are going with Reynaldo Lopez, who is pitching against his former team. The flip side to Lopez's obvious extra motivation is the Nationals know him while the current White Sox are unfamiliar with Strasburg. Lopez is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. He has been at his worst on the road where his ERA is 7.78. The White Sox have lost in his last five road starts. Lopez is in bad current form, too, allowing 13 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. By contrast, Strasburg has a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts. Strasburg has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He is an elite pitcher especially when pitching at Nationals Park. Washington is 29-10 (74 percent) in Strasburg's last 39 home starts versus sub .500 teams.
06-03-19	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5	Top	3-1	Win	103	16 h 9 m	Show
Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Dodgers have a very potent offense. I acknowledge all this before stating my case for the Under. However, I see a pitching duel between Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray. Buehler is one of my favorite young pitchers. He's been solid on the road, too, with a 3-1 record a 3.94 ERA in road games this season. Ray has limited opponents to a .216 batting average in four home starts. Ray has a career-mark of 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Dodgers. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He has whiffed 130 Dodgers hitters in 95 2/3 innings. The Dodgers have a top closer in Kenley Jansen while Greg Holland is enjoying a fine season as Arizona's closer.
06-03-19	Bruins v. Blues -110	Top	2-4	Win	100	14 h 35 m	Show
The Blues have been resilient all season and I expect them to be resilient here with, for all practical purposes, their season on the line trailing 2-1 to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup Finals. St. Louis might have been tight hosting their first Stanley Cup Final in 49 years. Certainly the Blues got out of control racking up too many penalties. The Bruins' deadly power play personnel took advantage coverting all four of their power play chances to defeat the Blues, 7-2, in Game 3 this past Saturday night. The key for the Blues is keeping their emotions in check and not drawing penalties. Are they capable of that against this particular opponent, who seems to really bother them? Yes, the Blues have the necessary discipline, defense and goaltending with Jordan Binnington. St. Louis was the least penalized team during the first three rounds of the postseason. Being home should help, too.
06-03-19	Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5.5		2-4	Loss	-130	14 h 34 m	Show
Look for the Stanley Cup Finals to revert back to a defensive-minded matchup following the Bruins' 7-2 Game 3 road win against St. Louis this past Saturday night. The Blues can't afford to take a second straight home loss down 2-1 in the series. In order to win, though, the Blues must cut back on their penalties. I believe they have the discipline to do that having been the least penalized team during the first three rounds of the Stanley Cup. Boston isn't going to draw any cheap calls either with this Game 4 being played in St. Louis. The Bruins tighten things up on the road. The Under has cashed in five of their last six away games. Tukka Rask is the frontrunner to be named MVP in the playoffs. He's stopped 164 of 168 shots in his past five road starts. St. Louis is only 1-of-10 during its past 10 power plays. Boston is surrendering just 1.6 goals per game in regulation during its last 16 games. The Blues have yielded two or fewer goals in eight of their last 12 games.
06-02-19	Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 215	Top	109-104	Win	100	31 h 38 m	Show
I'm expecting a top-notch defensive performance from the Warriors in this Game 2 after losing Game 1. Draymond Green ripped the Warriors' transition defense following the game. The Raptors are going to hold up their share on the defensive end, too, with their length and tenacity. The tempo in Game 1 was not fast. Yet the total still sailed Over. Why? Try unbelievable shooting. The Raptors sank 59 percent of their two-point field goals. The teams combined to sink 56 of 63 free throws for 89 percent! The Raptors hit tough shot after tough shot. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol combined to hit 25 of 35 shots from the floor. That's not going to happen again, nor are the two teams likely to combine to make nearly 90 percent of their free throws.
06-02-19	Indians +131 v. White Sox		0-2	Loss	-100	10 h 60 m	Show
Luis Giolito seemingly has turned the corner. He's pitched well all season. The White Sox are improved and the Indians have looked terrible. But I'm going to back the Indians at this plus price. Cleveland still is the superior team. The Indians are pitching rookie Zach Plesac, who impressed in his big league debut this past Tuesday at Boston. He held the Red Sox to one run on four hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings. Now he is stepping down in class. Plesac had a 1.41 ERA in nine minor league starts with a 56-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio before being called up. Giolito has a 4.41 lifetime ERA against the Indians.
06-02-19	Nationals -121 v. Reds		4-1	Win	100	9 h 59 m	Show
I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. Sonny Gray is a "C" level pitcher at best and that may be a generous assesment. So I very much like this price point. Scherzer is having another strong year this season despite his 2-5 record. He has made seven straight quality appearances. Scherzer was 2-0 versus the Reds last season with a 1.50 ERA. Washington has won 67 percent of Scherzer's past 58 road starts. The Nationals also are 4-0 in Scherzer's last four starts against Cincinnati. Gray has a 4.18 in six home starts this season. He's vulnerable pitching at Great American Ball Park, which is a top hitter's park. The Nationals have dominated the Reds at Great American Ball Park winning nine of the past 10 times.
06-01-19	Bruins +105 v. Blues		7-2	Win	105	6 h 28 m	Show
The Bruins are proven road warriors and in bounce back mode after losing Game 2 to the Blues at home. Boston is 6-2 on the road during the Stanley Cup playoffs and has won its past four away contests. St. Louis is just a .500 team at home during the postseason. Tuukka Rask has been brilliant on the road for Boston. He's given up just two goals in his last four away matchups. The Bruins have the best line in Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. They are overdue for a better performance, though, having produced only two points during the first two games of the series, including an empty-net goal by Marchand.
06-01-19	Tigers v. Braves -1.5		5-10	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
I like the Braves to bounce back in a big way against the Tigers after an 8-2 loss on Friday. So does the oddsmaker. Hence the big price. So the alternative is to back the Braves on the run line in order to greatly reduce the vigorish. Detroit is 4-17 in Daniel Norris' last 21 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven outings. The Braves are going with the best rookie pitcher in baseball, Mike Soroka. He has a 1.07 ERA, not allowing more than one earned run in eight appearances. Atlanta is 6-0 in Soroka's starts versus sub .500 opponents. The Tigers rank 29th in runs and homers. They are going to be without Miguel Cabrera, too. He's out with a swollen knee.
06-01-19	Royals v. Rangers OVER 10.5	Top	2-6	Loss	-110	6 h 5 m	Show
Homer Bailey is pitching. That always means a strong look to the Over. Bailey has a 5.79 ERA - and this is one of his lower ERA's going back the last few years. Bailey faced the Rangers last month and was battered for five earned runs on eight hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings. Lance Lynn is past his better days. He has thrown 236 pitches in his last two starts. He's vulnerable, too, here. Both teams have bottom-five type bullpens. The temperatures are going to be in the high 80s with no wind. Ryan Blakney is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 4-1 in his home plate appearances this season.
05-31-19	Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5	Top	1-4	Win	100	16 h 34 m	Show
Look for an Under in this battle of lefthanded starting pitchers, Chris Sale versus J.A. Happ. Sale has been pitching much better than he was earlier in the season posting a 2.23 ERA in his last five starts. Sale has a 1.87 career ERA in 18 career regular season appearances versus the Yankees, including 15 starts. He has a 2.36 career ERA in nine appearances at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees rank 21st in batting and 27th in homers versus lefthanded pitching. The Red Sox have gone Under the past eight times when facing an above .500 opponent. Happ looked good in his last start giving up three runs with 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Royals last Saturday. Happ has a 3.05 lifetime ERA against Boston in 22 regular season appearances, including 21 starts. The Red Sox rank 15th against southpaw pitchers. Happ is backed by the fourth-best bullpen in the majors. The Under is 7-1-1 in the Yankees' last nine home games. Weather shouldn't factor as there is just a slight breeze.
05-30-19	Warriors +1 v. Raptors	Top	109-118	Loss	-105	82 h 56 m	Show
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point.
05-30-19	Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10.5		5-3	Win	100	6 h 7 m	Show
This one has the feel of a zig-zag after the Phillies' 11-4 victory against the Cardinals Wednesday night. It's a day time getaway game so regulars could be sitting out, perhaps even Bryce Harper. He was removed from last night's game after fouling a ball off his right foot. Even though there were 15 runs scored last night neither team had to use any of their key relievers. The pitching matchup is Dakota Hudson versus Jerad Eickhoff. These are middle-of-the-road starters who are a big underrated. Hudson has been pitching much better. He hasn't yielded more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. Eickhoff is not in good current form, but has a decent 3.60 home ERA. The Under has cashed in eight of his last 11 home starts. There is only a slight wind and it's blowing to center. The Under should be helped by Kerwin Danley being the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 82 percent of the last 12 times he's been behind the plate.
05-28-19	Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5	Top	6-9	Loss	-108	19 h 47 m	Show
Before we get to the starting pitchers let's look at who isn't going to play. Kris Bryant is doubtful with a neck injury. On the Houston side, Jose Altuve and George Springer are out. That's a lot of missing star power. The Astros' offense is really missing Altuve and Springer. Houston is averaging just 3.3 runs in its last nine games. The Under has cashed in 10 of Houston's last 11 games. Veteran Jon Lester can give the Cubs a quality start while pitching deep into the game. The Astros are going with Corbin Martin, a promising rookie who is backed by an excellent bullpen with a top set-up man (Ryan Pressly) and dominant closer, Roberto Osuna.
05-27-19	Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9.5		2-6	Loss	-110	21 h 10 m	Show
Just six days ago, Lance Lynn and Tommy Milone faced each other at Texas. The over/under was 11 1/2. Lynn pitched well in that game helping the Rangers win, 5-3. But now the total is two runs less that what it was last Tuesday. The venue has switched to Seattle's T-Mobile Park, a better pitcher's park. But the two starting pitchers remain the same. I contend the oddsmaker can't set a total less than double-digits when Milone is one of the starter's involved especially when opposing an over-the-hill pitcher coming off a season-high 120 pitches and backed by a terrible bullpen. That's how many pitches Lynn threw against the Mariners on Tuesday. The Mariners have hit the second-most homers in the majors. Lynn has always been vulnerable to the long ball. Milone, though, never is a bargain. I'm surprised he's even managed to crack a big league starting rotation again. He has a career 4.45 ERA against the Rangers in 11 career starts. Texas ranks No. 2 in runs scored. The Over is 11-5-1 in the Rangers' last 16 road games, while the Over is 9-2-1 in the Mariners' past 12 home games.
05-27-19	Blues +140 v. Bruins	Top	2-4	Loss	-100	58 h 38 m	Show
All the Blues do is win on the road in the playoffs. They are 7-2 this postseasona away from home. St. Louis has been idle for five days. But that's nothing compared to the Bruins, who haven't played in 10 days! That's an unbelievable long layoff time and really puts a rustiness factor into Boston's equation for this Game 1. The Blues are riding a lot of momentum and playing on house money. Few, if any, expected them to still be alive at this point. A number of sportsbooks have big jeopardy on them because of the Blues' huge future book odds at the time. St. Louis eliminated the Sharks winning the last two games of that series by a margin of 10-1. The Blues have surrendered only two goals during their last three games. Tuukka Rask has been brilliant in goal. Jordan Binnington can match him, though. The rookie is 36-13 since being called up. The randomness factor is raised due to the lengthy time between games. Given that and the Blues playing their best hockey and road prowess, I find excellent value on St. Louis to steal this Game 1.
05-26-19	Orioles v. Rockies -1.5		7-8	Loss	-155	13 h 35 m	Show
The Orioles have the worst record in the majors and David Hess is probably their worst starting pitcher. The Orioles are 3-14 in their last 17 games, 1-7 during their past eight. They have lost by more than one run during 11 of their last 12 defeats. Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Baltimore is 3-14 during his last 17 road starts. The Rockies are averaging 6.5 runs in their last six games. Hess is backed up by one of the three worst bullpens in the majors. Colorado is starting German Marquez, who is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has a 2.48 ERA in day games. The Rockies are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts when going against an opponent with a losing record.
05-26-19	Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 8.5	Top	11-7	Win	100	11 h 1 m	Show
The Dodgers have scored seven or more runs in four of their last five games. The Over has cashed in LA's past five games. Look for that streak to continue here in a pitching matchup of Kenta Maeda versus Chris Archer. Maeda isn't nearly as good on the road as he is at Dodger Stadium. His history has held up this season. Maeda is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA on the road. He has a career 4.05 ERA versus the Pirates in two starts. Archer hasn't been good at all for the Pirates with a 5.55 ERA. Archer has made two starts since returning from the injured list and there hasn't been much improvement as he has given up nine earned runs on 10 hits and six walks in 8 2/3 innings. The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times in this series.
05-25-19	Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213	Top	94-100	Win	100	35 h 54 m	Show
Lost in the glare of superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard is the fact Milwaukee and Toronto are two very good defensive teams. The Bucks ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and defensive efficiency. If you discount a flat performance in Game 4, the Bucks have held the Raptors to an average of 102.5 points in regulation during the four other games in this Eastern Conference Finals. Nick Nurse has shown during this series that he is a very good coach with the defensive adjustments he has made. Leonard is a very strong defensive presence and the Raptors have the wing span and athletes to throw the Bucks off their shooting game. The Bucks are just 21 of 66 from 3-point range during the past two games for a shooting percentage of 31.8 percent. That's down nearly five percentage points from what the Bucks shot from beyond the arc during the regular season. The pace has slowed down, too. I don't see that changing in this pivotal Game 6 close-out game with the intensity level at full blast.
05-25-19	Red Sox +118 v. Astros		3-4	Loss	-100	18 h 16 m	Show
David Price is healthy and back in form. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last five starts with 33 strikeouts during this span. The Astros aren't likely to have two of their most dangerous and best hitters with George Springer and Jose Altuve each hurt. Springer injured his hamstring Friday night and could be headed to the injured list where Altuve resides also because of a hamstring injury. The Astros are pitching Brad Peacock. I like Peacock, but he is still striving for consistency. Boston has turned around its season going 16-7 in his last 23 games. The Red Sox also have back their most dangerous power hitter, J.D. Martinez. He played Friday after missing the past four games due to a back injury. Houston is 3-3 in its last six games.
05-24-19	Padres v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5		6-3	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
Joey Lucchesi has yet to prove he can pitch effectively outside of Petco Park. Trent Thornton has yet to show he can pitch well at Rogers Centre. So it's not asking much for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. Lucchesi has an 8.10 road ERA. The Blue Jays have scored 17 runs in their last three games. They have been a strong Over team in interleague play going above the total in 17 of their past 25 games versus NL opponents. Thornton is 0-3 with a 6.75 home ERA. He hasn't been sharp either with a 5.27 ERA in his last three starts. The Padres' offense is more dangerous outside of Petco Park especially in an AL park where they can use a DH. San Diego has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 14 away games.
05-24-19	Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5	Top	10-12	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
Helped by the recent additions of Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez into their starting lineup, the Marlins have scored 16 runs in their last three games. They face Kyle McGowin, who has a 6.00 ERA and only is in Washington's starting rotation due to injuries to Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez. McGowin has been mainly used in relief. He isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and Washington has one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Nationals have scored five or more runs in six of their last nine games. A big reason for this is they have gotten healthy with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman. Pablo Lopez gets the start for Miami. He has a 5.06 ERA. Lopez has gone against the Nationals twice and the results have not been pretty - a 7.59 ERA. The Marlins' bullpen also is highly vulnerable. These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Washington with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times.
05-23-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	105-99	Loss	-107	21 h 31 m	Show
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
05-22-19	Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8		9-11	Loss	-114	4 h 26 m	Show
The marquee pitching matchup of the day pits Max Scherzer against Jacob deGrom. But based on how well they have pitched this season, Luis Castillo versus Zach Davies isn't far behind those two superstars. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA. The Under has cashed in his last seven road starts. Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under is 4-0 during his last four home starts. That's a combined 11-0 Under mark in this situation from the two starters. Both bullpens are above average, too. The Brewers' offense is much less potent without reigning NL MLVP Christian Yelich, who didn't play on Tuesday due to back spasms. The Reds' lineup could really use Yasiel Puig, who has been out with a shouder injury.
05-21-19	Bucks -135 v. Raptors	Top	102-120	Loss	-135	33 h 43 m	Show
The Bucks didn't play well in Game 3. The result was a 118-112 double overtime road loss to the Raptors. Expect the Bucks to play much in this Game 4. The oddsmaker expects that. The difference is reflected in Milwaukee opening as a road favorite instead of an underdog as they did in Game 3. The oddsmaker has it right. The Bucks are the side I want going for me. Milwaukee has by far the better depth. This is huge because the Raptors are gassed especially Kawhi Leonard, who is playing hurt. The Raptors have no shot if Leonard doesn't produce a monster game. The Bucks have won and covered 10 of their 12 playoff games. It's not a big surprise considering they had the best SU and ATS mark during the regular season, too. Milwaukee also has been great in revenge spots - 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS off a loss.
05-21-19	Sharks v. Blues -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	181	20 h 52 m	Show
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
05-21-19	Reds v. Brewers -125		3-0	Loss	-125	19 h 31 m	Show
The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8. Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.
05-20-19	Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11	Top	9-10	Loss	-112	19 h 52 m	Show
Step to the head of the class if you knew that Mike Minor had the lowest ERA of any lefty starter in the American League. Minor has allowed only five runs in his last four starts and has a 2.61 ERA on the season. He goes deep into games, too, having pitched at least seven innings in five of his last eight starts. The Under has cashed in 10 of Minor's past 13 home starts. The Rangers' vulnerable bullpen could get a boost if Shawn Kelley, their most consistent reliever and recently appointed closer, is activated from the injured list. Kelley has been out after having a pair of lymph nodes surgically removed. He threw a simulated game Sunday. This total is high because Mike Leake is going for Seattle and Globe Life Park is an outstanding hitter's park. Leake has been pitching much better, though, with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts. Globe Life Park becomes far more of a hitter's park during the muggy summer months. The weather forecast for tonight's game is winds gusting in at 23 mph.
05-19-19	Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors	Top	112-118	Loss	-109	17 h 52 m	Show
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo.
05-19-19	Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	13 h 11 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice. Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games.
05-19-19	Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5		5-0	Loss	-104	15 h 50 m	Show
This has been a back-and-forth series as expected. That can apply to the total, too. The teams are returning to San Jose here for Game 5. The first two games of the series were at San Jose. There were nine goals scored in Game 1 and six goals scored in Game 2. That's the norm as 68 percent of the Sharks' past 19 games have resulted in six or more goals being produced. The Sharks are constantly in attack mode. They maybe have the two most offensive-minded blueliners in Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. St. Louis is known for its defense and goaltending. The Blues' offense production, though, is underrated. St. Louis is averaging 3.3 goals in its last games. The Blues have scored at least three goals in 75 percent of their last 28 games.
05-18-19	Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks		8-5	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher. The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss. Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field. Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts.
05-18-19	Warriors v. Blazers -127	Top	110-99	Loss	-127	20 h 47 m	Show
Normally I would have a hard time laying points with the inferior team. But this is the Trail Blazers' game to win - and I see them getting the job down here at home in this Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals being down 2-0. Portland showed it can outplay the Warriors. The Trail Blazers should have won Game 2 at Golden State, but blew a 17-point second half lead in losing, 114-111. The Trail Blazers have proven resilient all season especially in the postseason. They took out the Thunder in the first round after being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season. Then they came back from a 3-2 series deficit to eliminate the Nuggets winning Game 7 in Denver. Portland's Terry Stotts is a very underrated coach. I like the adjustments he made from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series, including tighting up the Trail Blazers' pick-and-roll defense, putting Moe Harkless on Stephen Curry and freeing up CJ McCollum for better looks on his jumpers. If McCollum and Damian Lillard had even their normal shooting games the Trail Blazers likely win Game 2. The All-Star backcourt tandem, though, shot a combined 15-of-39 (38.4 percent) from the field. The pair missed 10 of their 12 fourth-quarter field goals. Those two are due to shoot much better. Portland shouldn't fold up either with the switch in venues to their home-court. Certainly the Trail Blazers won't lack intensity down 2-0 while the Warriors have to be feeling fat and happy. Not having Kevin Durant is going to catch up to the Warriors.
05-17-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	103-125	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily.
05-17-19	Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox		10-2	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova. Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter. Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62. So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.
05-17-19	Sharks v. Blues -136		1-2	Win	100	3 h 10 m	Show
I want the Blues going for me after poor officiating cost them the last game. The Blues have been resilient all season and are the better defensive team by a wide margin with the superior goalie. Neither team has yet to win two in a row in this evenly matched series. Now it's the Blues' turn. San Jose is 1-4 following a win. The home team has won six of the past eight times between the two teams.
05-16-19	Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217.5	Top	111-114	Win	100	17 h 54 m	Show
The Warriors don't need Kevin Durant to produce a lot of points. They are averaging 117 points in their last two games minus Durant. Stephen Curry is stepping up and Golden State's reserves are scoring much better. It helps that the Trail Blazers lack rim protection with Jusuf Nurkic out. Portland is giving up an average of 113.2 points during its last five games discounting its 100-96 victory against the Nuggets. A key to making this Over work is Portland getting its points. I expect the Trail Blazers to be less tight and shoot much better than the 36.1 percent they shot in Game 1 while committing a ghastly 21 turnovers. I like the open looks both teams were getting in Game 1. Damian Lillard was just 4-for-12 from the floor in the first game. Look for Lillard to play more aggressive and have a much more productive scoring game.
05-16-19	Bruins v. Hurricanes +103		4-0	Loss	-100	16 h 30 m	Show
The Bruins hold a commanding 3-0 lead in this Eastern Conference final. But while the Bruins have been the superior team, the 3-0 series lead is somewhat misleading. The Hurricanes nearly pulled a road upset in Game 1 leading 2-1 entering the third period before falling apart. The Hurricanes outshot the Bruins, 36-31, in Game 3 but lost 2-1. Carolina has a great home record and obviously is in must-win territory. So an all-out effort from the Hurricanes should be forthcoming while the Bruins are fat and happy. The Panthers have won five of their six Stanley Cup home games and are 9-2 overall during their last 11 home contests.
05-16-19	Rangers v. Royals OVER 10		16-1	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
Lance Lynn versus Homer Bailey is a great pitching matchup - if this were 2012. Those two were good back then when they were in the National League and before they had arm problems. Now they are journeymen in the American League and far from locks to remain in the starting rotation. Lynn has a 5.48 ERA. He's coming off a season-high 118-pitch count against the Astros this past Friday where he surrendered three homers. Lynn has a 5.13 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals. Bailey has a 4.83 ERA. That's actually his lowest ERA in five years. He's facing a Texas squad that leads the majors in runs scored and has scored 16 runs in its last three games. The Over is 13-5-1 in Texas' last 19 games. Both team's bullpens rank among the worst. The weather forecast is a plus for the Over, too, with wind blowing to center at 12-15 mph.
05-15-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6	Top	100-108	Win	100	20 h 56 m	Show
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
05-15-19	Angels v. Twins UNDER 9.5		7-8	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
Get away day game matchup for these two teams, which is a plus for the Under. This actually is a morning game for the Angels based on their time zone. Some regulars usually are rested in these type of situations. The Twins could be without two of their better power hitters. Mitch Garver suffered a high ankle sprain on Tuesday so he won't be in action. Nelson Cruz has missed the last two games due to a sore left wrist. Jake Odorizzi has been the hottest pitcher during his last three starts, giving up no earned runs during this span of 20 innings. The Angels are averaging three runs per game during their last three games. Angels starter Trevor Cahill looked good in his last start, an 8-3 victory against the Orioles. Cahill yielded two runs in six innings giving up four hits and no walks with five strikeouts. Both pitchers catch a break with Eric Cooper slated to be behind the plate The Under has cashed 60 percent of the time in Cooper's 86 games as home plate umpire since 2016. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the two teams have met.
05-14-19	Blue Jays v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	7-3	Win	100	20 h 51 m	Show
The Blue Jays and Giants are two of the weakest offensive teams in the majors. But this is too low of a total in a pitching matchup of Trent Thornton, who has a 5.06 ERA, against Nick Vincent, who is a long reliever and has made just one career start in the big leagues. The Giants squared off against Thornton on April and won, 7-6, scoring four runs on six hits in five innings versus Thornton. The offenses could get a slight boost, too, with the wind blowing out to left at nine mph.
05-14-19	Blazers v. Warriors -7.5		94-116	Win	100	19 h 48 m	Show
Much is being made of Kevin Durant being out with a strained calf. But the Trail Blazers have their own injuries to deal with as Enes Kanter has a separated shoulder and Rodney Hood a hyperextended knee. Both are likely to play, but at less than 100 percent. Keep in mind, too, the Trail Blazers remain without their best big man, Jusuf Nurkic. Golden State has proven it can step up without Durant. Just ask the Rockets, who happen to be at least a tier higher than the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have home-court here, but also a favorable spot. Golden State hasn't played since Friday when it upset the Rockets on the road to end that series. Steve Kerr and his brain trust have had ample time to study the Trail Blazers and how best to utilize their players knowing Durant won't be on the court. The Trail Blazers are off a brutal seven-game series against the Nuggets that didn't conclude until this past Sunday with Portland scoring an upset road victory. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. They can't be blamed for coming up flat here with such little time to savor their huge series win against Denver.
05-13-19	A's v. Mariners -125	Top	5-6	Win	100	24 h 53 m	Show
Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches. Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA. I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games. Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs. Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher. The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.
05-12-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors		90-92	Win	100	8 h 22 m	Show
Toronto doesn't deserve to be trusted in clutch playoff games given its track record. The Raptors also have been terrible in this role going 9-18 ATS the past 27 times when favored by six points or fewer. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. But Joel Embiid is close behind. Embiid had a huge Game 6 posting a plus-minus ratio of plus 40. Embiid has helped the 76ers outrebound the Raptors by 47 rebounds during the series, an average of 7.8 per game. Health is the key for Embiid. He was healthy in Game 6, which was played on Thursday. So he's had a full two days to rest. I prefer Ben Simmons over Kyle Lowery at point guard and Jimmy Butler is there to lend his considerable skill and veteran leadership to the 76ers.
05-12-19	Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5		2-6	Loss	-125	19 h 7 m	Show
There were seven goals scored in Boston's 5-2 Game 1 victory on Thursday. The oddsmaker wasn't fooled by this many goals being scored and neither should you. This was a tight 2-1 game with Carolina pulling the upset - until the third period. The Bruins took advantage of power play opportunities and outscored the Hurricanes, 4-0, during the final period. Carolina goalie Petr Mrazek was making his first appearance since getting hurt on April 28. Mrazek should be less rusty. Mrazek stopped 31 shots in a 1-0 overtime victory against the Islanders in his previous game before playing against the Bruins. The Hurricanes realize their missed opportunity. They will do a better job of keeping their emotions in check and playing cleaner hockey in order not to incur any penalties playing on foreign ice. That means a conservative style. They have given up two or fewer goals in five of their last eight games. The Bruins get back star defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who sat out Game 1 due to suspension. The Bruins also have the hottest goalie in the playoffs, Tukka Rask. The Hurricanes are going to have to earn any goals they might get because Rask isn't going to give them soft ones.
05-12-19	Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8.5	Top	10-6	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
A pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Dakota Hudson should yield at least four runs per side ensuring in an Over the total winner. Brault is making his second start of the year. He's only in the Pirates' starting rotation due to injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. The lefty has giving up 10 runs in 12 2/3 innings resulting in a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Over is 12-3-1 the past 16 times the Cardinals have faced a lefty starter at home. Hudson is on the verge of losing his spot in the Cardinals' rotation with a 4.63 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The Pirates' offense is much better with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco both back healthy.
05-11-19	Blues +119 v. Sharks		3-6	Loss	-100	24 h 54 m	Show
The Blues have been at their finest on the road during the Stanley Cup winning five of six times. They have been idle since Tuesday while the Sharks didn't clinch their series against the Avalanche until a 3-2 Game 7 victory this past Wednesday. St. Louis is the better defensive team and has the superior goalie. I can definitely see the Blues frustrating the Sharks here and coming away with a Game 1 victory. They are a much different type of foe than the Sharks have encountered so far in the postseason. St. Louis has won seven of the last eight times as an underdog. Jordan Binnington continued his regular-season brillance into the playoffs posting a .922 save percentage during St. Louis' second-round series victory against Dallas. Binnington was 24-5-1 with five shutouts and a 1.89 GAA during the regular season. Sharks goalie Martin Jones has picked up his play lately, but isn't the equal of Binnington. The Blues are 18-8 the past 26 times versus foes with a winning record. They haven't been bothered by Pacific Division opponents either beating them seven of the past nine times.
05-11-19	Phillies -132 v. Royals	Top	7-0	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts. Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen. The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot.
05-11-19	Marlins +272 v. Mets		1-4	Loss	-100	17 h 51 m	Show
Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though. The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.
05-10-19	Phillies -146 v. Royals		1-5	Loss	-146	11 h 0 m	Show
Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.
05-10-19	Yankees v. Rays OVER 7	Top	4-3	Push	0	17 h 19 m	Show
Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are two huge success stories so far this season. Both have six victories. German has a 2.35 ERA while Glasnow could legitimately lay claim to being the best pitcher in the American League to this point with a 1.47 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his seven starts. So the oddsmaker certainly is justified setting such a low total for an American League game. The Yankees are a strong road Over team. The Rays have gone above the total in eight of their last 11 home games. I can see one of these two pitchers not holding up his considerable end, which would collapse an Under play due to the total being set so low. New York has gone Over in 20 of its last 27 road contests. The Yankees have a top-10 offense. They have produced four or more runs in 19 of their last 26 games. The Rays just scored 20 runs during their three-game home series against the Diamondbacks. They are expected to get back Austin Meadows, who is hitting .351 with six homers and 19 RBI's in 20 games. Meadows has missed nearly three weeks due to a thumb injury. German has a shaky history versus the Rays having posted a 7.36 ERA against them in three appearances last season, two of which came as a starter.
05-09-19	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5	Top	108-119	Loss	-105	21 h 59 m	Show
If the Trail Blazers are going to force a Game 7 with a home victory here in Game 6 they likely are going to have to do it with defense. Portland is averaging 102.2 points during regulation in its last four games. Portland heavily relies on the scoring of guard Damian Lillard, who is shooting just 39.2 percent from the floor during the past four games. The Trail Blazers aren't getting much frontcourt scoring production with Jusuf Nurkic out and Enes Kanter dealing with a separated shoulder and honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset. Kanter has managed only 14 points in the last two games making just 4-of-14 shots from the field. These teams do not play at a fast pace. I envision a slow-moving, ultra intense defensive battle.
05-09-19	Hurricanes v. Bruins -147		2-5	Win	100	18 h 14 m	Show
The Bruins are looking like the best team in hockey. They have a lot of momentum, their top line is producing, goalie Tuukka Rask is hot and they have home ice, which means a lot against this opponent. The Hurricanes have lost during their last four visits to Boston. They also haven't played since Friday so there figures to be some rust. David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron give Boston maybe the best line in hockey. They've come through so far in the postseason with 16 goals and 32 points. Rask looked great in the Bruins' series victory against the Blue Jackets turning in a 1.71 GAA and .948 save percentage.
05-09-19	Rangers +1.5 v. Astros		2-4	Loss	-132	18 h 45 m	Show
The Rangers have hung in so far this season posting a 17-17 record. They have a solid starting pitching edge in this matchup with Mike Minor going against Wade Miley. Minor has a 2.40 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .190 against him. Minor has been hot since the middle of last season posting a 2.97 ERA following the All-Star Game holding foes to a .194 batting average. Minor faced the Astros early last month and dominated them winning, 4-0, at home. Minor allowed just five hits in seven innings. Miley is a journeyman type who has pitched decent this season, but is not the caliber of Minor. Miley has a bad history against the Rangers with a 2-5 career-mark and 5.86 ERA in nine starts.
05-08-19	Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors	Top	99-104	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
05-08-19	Reds v. A's -119		4-5	Win	100	19 h 52 m	Show
The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan. I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years. Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season. Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent. Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
05-07-19	Stars +145 v. Blues		1-2	Loss	-100	4 h 12 m	Show
The marketplace has pushed the line high enough where there is now definite value to back the underdog Stars. These teams are very even. Dallas has the superior defense and goalie Ben Bishop has played better than any goalie this season in my view. The Stars have proven themselves on the road, including winning twice in St. Louis during this series. Dallas has won eight of the last 10 times it has been a road 'dog.
05-07-19	Rangers v. Pirates OVER 8.5	Top	4-5	Win	100	17 h 42 m	Show
It might surprise you to know that Texas has scored the most runs per game in the Majors this season. If you discount a recent 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Rangers are averaging 9.3 runs in their last six games. The Over is 8-2-1 in the Rangers' past 11 games. It's not hard to envision the Rangers and Pirates producting at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of Steven Brault versus Adrian Sampson. The two teams played two games against one another last week and the scores were 6-4 and 7-5. The Pirates got a look at Sampson for 5 2/3 innings last week. So they'll have a book on him. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Pittsburgh offense is much more respectable with Starling Marte back in the lineup. If you take away a 14-1 loss to the A's, the Pirates are averaging six runs during their last five games. The Rangers should be able to tee off on Brault, who carries an 8.31 ERA and is only drawing a start because Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are each hurt. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to right. That's good news for left-handed power hitter Joey Gallo, who is tied for the American League in homers with 11.
05-06-19	Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8	Top	3-5	Push	0	12 h 37 m	Show
Max Scherzer is the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball. He faces a Brewers lineup that will be missing perhaps their second-best hitter, Lorenzo Cain, who was hurt on Sunday and won't be in the starting lineup. Jhoulys Chacin is the Brewers' top starter. He's a huge underrated Under pitcher with the low side cashing in 16 of his last 21 starts. The Brewers will have a rested Josh Hader to pitch possibly two innings out of the bullepn. The Nationals' offense is way down due to multiple injuries. Out are Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Trea Turner and Matt Adams. Only once in their last six games have the Nationals scored more than three runs. The Under is 6-1-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Milwaukee.
05-06-19	Bruins v. Blue Jackets -119		3-0	Loss	-119	10 h 16 m	Show
I want the Blue Jackets going for me at home facing elimination in this Game 6. The Blue Jackets have been knocked out of the playoffs the past two years by the eventual Stanley Cup champion during the first round. Columbus didn't let that happen this season. The Blue Jackets swept the Lightning - the best team during the regular season - and have won eight of their last 10 home games, including going 3-1 in Stanley Cup action. The Bruins heavily rely on their top line, which has been hot. But I see John Tortorella really having his Blue Jackets clamp down on Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron at Nationwide Arena. Boston has had trouble at this venue losing four of the past five times.
05-05-19	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5		116-112	Loss	-110	16 h 57 m	Show
Lost in the glare of the Trail Blazers' amazing 140-137 four-overtime victory against the Nuggets on Friday was that regulation ended, 102-102. That's a combined 204 points. Now, less than 48 hours later, the teams go at it again both facing a heavy fatigue factor. Many of the top players are coming off the heavest one-game work loads of their career. Some played an obsence amount of minutes: Nikola Jokic (64:58), CJ McCollum (60:01), Damian Lillard (57:59), Enes Kanter (56:58 on a separated shoulder) and Jamal Murray (55:03). This is unchartered territory for these players to come back strong after such a game. This is playoff basketball and the defensive intensity is sure to be up while the legs can't be there for jump shots. So I'm projecting a low-scoring, intense battle.
05-05-19	Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 8.5	Top	1-7	Win	100	12 h 49 m	Show
The Phillies have gone from being an Over team early in the season to an Under team. The Under is 11-4-1 in Philadelphia's last 16 games. Phillies starter Zach Eflin is in good form, too, with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. Elfin has a 1.12 ERA at home this season. The wind also is blowing in at 12 mph. But the biggest reason why I like the Under is Washington's injury situation. The Nationals are witout four of their best players - Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Ryan Zimmerman - and likely will be minus Matt Adams and Michael Taylor. Adams and Taylor were injured on Saturday. The Phillies could be resting some of their starters this being a Sunday day game following a wild 10-8 loss to the Nationals on Saturday night. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Nationals. He has seen better days, but the Under has cashed in four of his last five starts. The Nationals' bullpen should be fine - if they don't use Joe Ross.
05-04-19	Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 5.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-125	20 h 59 m	Show
It's not difficult to project at least six goals being scored in this Game 5 with the series returning to San Jose. There have been at least seven combined goals during each of the Sharks' last 10 home games. Colorado is averaging 3.5 goals during its past eight games. Nathan MacKinnon is in the argument for best offensive player in the NHL. He's hot, too, riding an eight-game point scoring streak. The Avalanche have one of the most dangerous power play units in hockey. The Sharks are not strong strong defensively. They ranked 21st defensively during the regular season and have shaky goaltending with Martin Jones. Their top two defensemen are offensive-minded in constant attack mode. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the league. The Over is 7-3-1 in its Stanley Cup games. The Over has won in four of the Sharks' last five playoff games. These two teams have a strong Over history, too, when meeting each other especially in San Jose where 80 percent of the past 16 matchups have gone above the total.
05-03-19	Bucks v. Celtics -127		123-116	Loss	-127	18 h 59 m	Show
Boston got its split in Milwaukee. I don't see the Bucks getting the better of the Celtics in this Game 3, which will be their toughest road playoff game yet. I like Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. He deserves to be Coach of the Year. Still, he's trumped by Brad Stevens, who I regard as the best coach in the Eastern Conference. I trust Stevens to make the necessary adjustments with the teams having last played on Tuesday when the Bucks blew out the Celtics. Boston has covered six of the last seven times it has hosted Milwaukee. The Bucks are still likely to be without guard Malcolm Brogdon, who has missed the last 1 1/2 months with plantar fasciitis. Brogdon is the Bucks' best defensive player and the most underrated player on the team. This could be the Bucks' toughest game of the season - and the line is fair enough to back Boston.
05-03-19	A's v. Pirates -110	Top	14-1	Loss	-110	18 h 8 m	Show
The timing, pitching matchup and price all line up heavily for Pittsburgh here. The Pirates come home bolstered by a two-game road sweep of the Rangers. They catch the A's playing their worst ball, losers of six in a row all on the road having been swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Oakland is giving up 6.2 runs during this losing skid and has lost five of the games by multiple runs. The A's can be dangerous at home, but are not nearly as good on the road where they have lost the past seven times. Oakland is 1-8 in Brett Anderson's last nine road starts. Anderson has failed to complete five innings during his last two starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start this past Saturday. The A's rely on the power of Khris Davis. However, Davis has gone homerless in his last 15 games. Davis is going to play the outfield, too, because there is no DH in National League parks. Davis is a well below average on defense. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has the third-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.54 through five starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove pitched for the Astros before coming to the Pirates. He is 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA in seven appearances against the A's, including three starts. A big non-pitching key for the Pirates is the return from injury of star outfielder Starling Marter. Pittsburgh was 1-9 without him. The Pirates are 13-5 with Marte in the lineup.
05-02-19	Sharks v. Avalanche OVER 6		0-3	Loss	-102	20 h 16 m	Show
It's not a fluke the Over is 7-2-1 in San Jose's Stanley Cup games this season. The Sharks play fast, their key defensivemen are offensive-minded and they are vulnerable in goal. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL this season and have scored three or more goals in all but two of its past 12 games. The Sharks are averaging four goals per game during the first three games of this second-round Cup series. Colorado is a top-10 scoring team. The Avalanche are averaging 3.6 goals per game in their past six games. These two teams have a strong Over history, too. The Over has cashed at a 79 percent clip during the last 27 times the teams have met.
05-02-19	Rockies v. Brewers UNDER 9	Top	11-6	Loss	-125	12 h 55 m	Show
Don't expect to see Wednesday's offensive fireworks when the Rockies beat the Brewers, 11-4. The starting pitching matchup is much different today. It's also a get away day game, which often is a plus for an Under due to lack of player concentration and the possibility of a starter or two getting rested. The best reliever on each team also didn't pitch on Wednesday. So Wade Davis and Josh Hader, who has the stamina to go multiple innings, have no fatigue issues. Colorado starter Jon Gray usually pitches much better away from Coors Field. Gray has a 2.13 day ERA this season, too. Gray didn't pitch well in his last start against the Braves. However, in his previous three starts - two of which came on the road - he surrendered just a combined two earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Rockies have been a solid Under team on the road with the Under going 24-10-3 (71 percent) the past 37 times. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta made his big league debut against the Rockies at Coors Field last year and was fantastic striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings. Peralta has shown to be much more effective pitching at home during his brief major league career. He was 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Miller Park last season with 40 strikeouts in 33 innings.
05-01-19	Blues v. Stars -119	Top	2-4	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
I'm looking for a bounce back from the Stars, who lost by a goal at home in Game 3. Prior to that Game 3, the Stars had beaten the Blues four consecutive times at home. The Stars' special teams are playing well and their front line is due to produce more. I give the Stars checkmarks on defense and in goal with Ben Bishop.
05-01-19	Yankees v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5	Top	2-3	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
First off, the roof is going to be closed at Chase Field for this game. That's a big plus for the Under. Second, the Yankees are pitching Masahiro Tanaka, who is pitching well this season yielding one earned run in four of his six starts. Arizona is averaging three runs during its last three games. The Yankees have their top arms in their bullpen available. Arizona is pitching Merrill Kelly, who has been up and down. But he has a 3.09 ERA in the day and this is an afternoon game. Kelly gets to go against a depleted Yankee lineup missing Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar and now likley DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees have never faced Kelly, which gives Kelly an edge. Likewise, the Diamondbacks haven't ever gone up against Tanaka.
04-30-19	Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors	Top	109-115	Loss	-106	27 h 45 m	Show
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State.
04-30-19	Sharks v. Avalanche OVER 6		4-2	Push	0	22 h 45 m	Show
The Sharks have played nine Stanley Cup games this season. The Over has cashed in seven of them. It's not a surprise. San Jose was the No. 2 scoring team in the league. However, the Sharks also ranked 21st defensively and are vulnerable in net with Martin Jones. The Avalanche took advantage of that scoring four goals in Game 2 to tie the series. Colorado is averaging 3.8 goals in its last six games. If you discount a 5-0 playoff loss to Las Vegas, San Jose is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 10 games. The teams have a strong Over history in Colorado, too, with five of the last six going above the total.
04-30-19	Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5		1-2	Loss	-100	19 h 46 m	Show
There were five combined goals scored in each of the first two games of this series. So both games went Under the total since a sixth goal was need to push it Over. There was one day rest between those games. Now we come to Game 3 of this second-round Stanley Cup series and there is a full two days rest for the first time. I expect both teams to use that extra day to sharpen their attacks and to play at a faster tempo with more energy. The Bruins have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 19 games. During the regular season, the Bruins had the third-most effective power play and ranked 11th in scoring. The Over has cashed in seven of the Bruins' last nine road games. The Blue Jackets had an above average offense, too, during the regular season. Columbus is averaging 4.2 goals in its last 14 games. So a higher-scoring game is due. Recent history is there for this to occur as the past five meetings between the two teams in Columbus have gone above the total.
04-29-19	Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5	Top	113-121	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
Portland should have plenty of energy having been idle for six days. I see that energy being exerted defensively as their jump-shooting could suffer after such a long layoff. The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 to the Under in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets aren't going to look to push pace after concluding a grueling seven-game series with the Spurs on Saturday winning, 90-86, at home. Denver gave up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA this season. More important, the Nuggets ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense. That's bad news for Portland guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers heavily rely on the outside scoring of those two. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Nuggets' last 16 home games.
04-29-19	Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-113	21 h 45 m	Show
Put Kenta Maeda among the more disappointing April pitchers this season. Maeda never has been particularly strong away from Dodger Stadium, but he's off to a brutal start this year with a 5.20 ERA. Maeda has a 7.53 ERA in three road outings this season. Yes, Oracle Park is a pitcher's park. But some of this advantage is reduced by the wind blowing out at 10-11 mph. Maeda doesn't have a good history either at Oracle Park with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances. Jeff Samardzija has been a below average starter for years. He doesn't go deep into games anymore, which bares open the Giants' vulnerable middle relief. The Dodgers have hit the third-most homers in the majors. Samardzija is 1-4 career-wise versus the Dodgers in eight appearances (six starts) with a 4.06 ERA. The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met.
04-29-19	Blues v. Stars -115		4-3	Loss	-115	18 h 9 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get the better defensive team at home. The teams split the opening two games in St. Louis. The Stars had 10 more shots on goal than the Blues in this span. I like the Stars' combination of size and speed, especially on their No. 1 line. I also like the Stars' ability to win faceoffs especially being the home team now. These are key factors. Ben Bishop and Jordan Binnington may have been the two top goalies in the league this season. Bishop has a strong playoff track record. Binnington, though, is a rooke and he wasn't that good against the Stars during the regular season with an .879 save percentage and 2.76 GAA. Dallas has dominated this series, too, winning seven of the past nine times.
04-28-19	Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6		4-3	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
There is value to a Sharks game whenever the oddsmaker puts out less than a 6 1/2 total. San Jose is averaging 4.3 goals during its last nine home games. The Sharks ranked as the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL in part because of tremendous offense their defensemen bring especially Brent Burns. The Avalanche should be able to keep up because the Sharks rank 21st in goals allowed and have sub-par goaltending. Colorado is averaging 3.8 goals during its last five games. The Over has a huge history when the teams meet in San Jose with a 9-1-1 mark the past 11 times.
04-28-19	Angels v. Royals OVER 9	Top	7-3	Win	100	6 h 39 m	Show
Matt Harvey and Homer Bailey are a pair of retread National Leaguers who haven't been good for years. Bailey might throw a gem once in a while but his ERA since 2015 has been 5.56, 6.65, 6.43, 6.09 and 5.62. Harvey hasn't been anywhere the same pitcher since undergoing serious arm surgery. His ERA was 7.00 last year. This year it is 8.03. Both bullpens are below average especially the Royals. Neither team has an established closer with Cody Allen injured. The Over is 20-8-3 in the Royals' last 31 home games. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. Neary 60 percent of his games during the past two plus seasons have gone Over the total.
04-28-19	Padres v. Nationals -101		6-7	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
I don't see the Padres sweeping the Nationals at home. Washington has had its ups and downs, but has not lost four in a row all season. Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is helped by pitching at spacious Petco Park. He had a losing road record last season with a 4.24 ERA. San Diego is 1-4 in his last five road starts. Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson had an 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Padres last season.
04-27-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors	Top	95-108	Loss	-104	21 h 44 m	Show
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
04-27-19	Indians v. Astros UNDER 9.5		3-4	Win	100	5 h 6 m	Show
I like both starting pitchers here and both team's have strong bullpens with elite closers. Shane Bieber is looking to come back strong after a rare bad outing. He has a 0.99 ratio and is holding batters to a .180 batting average. Brad Peacock could be a No.3 starter for many teams, but pitches for the pitching-rich Astros. He has a 1.05 WHIP and is holding opposing hitters to a .205 batting average. Both offenses are off to slow starts. The Indians rank 24th in runs and 26th in homers. Houston ranks 17th in runs.
04-27-19	Stars +125 v. Blues		4-2	Win	125	17 h 2 m	Show
The Stars outshot the Blues, 29-20, in Game 1 but lost by one goal. It was a rare time this season that Ben Bishop permitted a soft goal. Bishop has been the best goalie in the NHL this season in my opinion and the Stars have the second-stingiest defense in the league. Dallas also has proved itself on the road going 9-4 the past 13 times. I don't see the Blues getting the better of the Stars a second straight time. Dallas has dominated this series recently winning six of the last eight times with two of its victories versus St. Louis this season coming by three goals.
04-26-19	Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5		4-5	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
You might be surprised to know the Mariners lead the Majors in runs scored and homers. The Mariners scored 14 runs against the Rangers Thursday and should not encouter any resistance again today facing Shelby Miller and a very bad Texas bullpen. Miller hasn't been able to come back from a serious arm injury. He has a 7.63. ERA. If that isn't hideous enough he has a 6-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Rangers should put up their share of runs as Seattle is treating this as a bullpen game. Rookie Justus Sheffiled is going to pitch 3-4 innings for the Mariners. He's a good prospect, but he's not ready for the Majors yet. Texas has an above average offense. The Rangers rank 8th in runs scored.
04-26-19	Avalanche +115 v. Sharks		2-5	Loss	-100	21 h 32 m	Show
The Avalanche have plenty of momentum and is the more rested team. Colorado has won four in a row in eliminating the Flames. The Avalanche outscored Calgary, 17-7, in going 4-0 during the last four games. San Jose still may be in the clouds after rallying from a 3-0 third period deficit to edge the Golden Knights in overtime this past Tuesday in its Game 7 matchup. It's difficult envisioning the Sharks producing the kind of effort so soon after their super human effort against the Golden Knights after Joe Pavelski was injured. Pavelski isn't likley to play in this game.
04-26-19	Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233	Top	129-110	Loss	-110	23 h 58 m	Show
Look for the Warriors to play intense defense after being upset, 129-121, at home by the Clippers in Game 5 on Wednesday. Golden State held the Clippers to 105 points after LA pulled a 135-131 win in Game 2. I expect a similar effort from the Warriors, who finished No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, in this Game 6. Yes, there were 250 combined points in Game 5. But the pace was slow. The Clippers made an unbelievable 54.1 percent from the floor. They shot 47 percent from the field during the regular season. They made 42.5 percent of their field goals in Game 4 and hit only 37.2 percent in Game 3. So the Clippers' shooting percentage in Game 5 clearly was an outlier. Note, too, the two teams combined to make 44 of 48 free throws in Game 5 for 92 percent. That's certainly unlikely to be repeated, too, in this next game. Golden State actually has been a sneaky Under team. The Under has won in 18 of the Warriors' past 26 games.
04-25-19	Stars +136 v. Blues	Top	2-3	Loss	-100	20 h 15 m	Show
The Blues are vulnerable having last played on Saturday and catching the Stars off three straight victories against the Predators to close that series. Dallas has the better defense ranking second in the league. The Stars have arguably the best goalie this season, Ben Bishop, and the top line of the two teams with a No. 1 line composed of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov. The Blues may hold the better depth, but Dallas is riding a lot of momentum and has proven itself on the road winning nine of its past 12 away matchups. The Stars also have defeated the Blues six of the last seven times.
04-25-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5		103-120	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
Denver has made key necessary defensive adjustments to win the last two games and take a 3-2 series lead. Now it's up to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to counter. I see the Spurs doing that especially playing at home. Popovich has long been the best coach in the NBA. The Nuggets have a terrible track record when playing at San Antonio having lost 14 of the past 15 times there, are 3-7 ATS following a pointspread cover and 4-10 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Denver hasn't won a playoff series since 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are due to step for the Spurs.
04-25-19	Diamondbacks +115 v. Pirates		5-0	Win	115	12 h 1 m	Show
Wrong favorite. Injuries have helped cool off the Pirates. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row. The Pirates are without outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson among others and have been held to four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Arizona is 7-2 during its current road trip. The Diamondbacks also have owned the Pirates defeating them nine consecutive times in Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke versus Jameson Taillon. I like Taillon, but Greinke's current form and history make him the better choice. Greinke is 8-4 with a 1.03 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of Greinke's past 14 away starts.
04-24-19	Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 213		93-100	Win	100	6 h 44 m	Show
Utah has made the necessary defensive adjustments after getting blown out in the first two games of this series. Since then, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 97.5 points in the last two games and under 40 percent shooting from the floor. This isn't a fluke. The Jazz always have been an elite defensive club. Rudy Gobert may be the best rim protector in basketball. The Rockets have been playing excellent defense for the past six weeks. This is going to be physical, intense matchup where defense should dominate. The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the teams have met.
04-24-19	Mariners +1.5 v. Padres	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
04-23-19	Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5	Top	4-5	Win	100	20 h 30 m	Show
I don't care that the last game in this series was won by San Jose, 2-1, in double overtime Sunday. There is no way you can hang less than a 6 on a total when these two teams meet even with this being the pivotal Game 7. There have been at least seven combined goals in each of the three games played at San Jose during the series. The Over has cashed six of the last eight times the two teams have met. The Golden Knights fired 59 shots in that Game 6 loss. Martin Jones played well, but he remains the shakiest goalie in the playoffs. The Golden Knights' second line of Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny and Mark Stone is due for a big game after not scoring in the last two games. They had accounted for 28 points during the first four games of the series. The Sharks are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They are averaging 3.7 goals during their last seven home games.
04-23-19	Nets +8.5 v. 76ers		100-122	Loss	-100	9 h 23 m	Show
The Nets have proven spunky all season, almost always coming through with a hard effort. I don't see them going quietly through the night on the brink of playoff elimination here. This has been a bitter series. The Nets are down 3-1, but the series very well could be tied at 2-2. Brooklyn blew a 101-94 lead with 5:20 left in Game 4 before losing 104-101 on Saturday. Brooklyn has covered in seven of its past nine road games. The 76ers have a vast array of talent. But they have some immaturity and don't know how to win yet, which makes them vulnerable to overconfidence in this matchup. The Nets have excellent backcourt scoring depth and I like that their coach, Kenny Gattison, has shortened the rotation.
04-22-19	Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz		91-107	Loss	-108	20 h 0 m	Show
It was a given the Jazz were going to produce their best effort in Game 3 at home after losing the first two games to the Rockets on the road by an average of 26 points. Utah did just that. The Jazz held the great James Harden to 3-of-20 shooting from the floor and the Rockets to 38.4 percent from the field. Yet the Rockets still won and covered beating the favored Jazz by three points. The oddsmaker is done making the Jazz a favorite again. The demoralized Jazz aren't going to be the first team in NBA playoff history to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. Harden isn't going to have a shooting game like that again. The Rockets want to end this series fast to keep pace with the Warriors. The Jazz lack the confidence and morale to come back here to win a game. Utah needs Donovan Mitchell to shoot well to hang with Houston and that hasn't been happening. Mitchell has made just 32.8 percent of his shots from the floor.