Kansas State has a top-25 offense in yards and scoring, averaging 35.8 points. Texas Tech averages 34.2 points and has a stud running back, Tahj Brooks. He's the fifth-leading rusher in the nation.

But what makes going Over this total enticing are the weak pass defenses. Kansas State ranks 107th in pass defense. The Wildcats have a cluster injury problem in their secondary, too.

Texas Tech QB Behren Morton is getting better each week since replacing injured Tyler Shough. He had his highest ranked game this past week.

The Red Raiders rank 95th in pass defense. Kansas State senior QB Will Howard, well praised before the season, is due to perform better. This is his opportunity.

I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard.

The Wildcats are 11-6 ATS (65 percent) following a loss under Chris Klieman. They also have a good history of winning on the road despite the loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have won at least three road contests in each of Klieman's four previous seasons as Kansas State head coach.

Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country.

Wisconsin is averaging 31.4 points a game. The Badgers have by far the best skilled position player on the field in running back Braelon Allen.

The Badgers also are 3-0 the past three times hosting Iowa.

Tulane and Memphis certainly are capable of big-scoring games. But I don't see it happening in this matchup.

The Green Wave's Michael Pratt is one of the better QB's in the country. But Tulane has been plagued by turnovers and poor red zone production. Memphis has one of the better defenses in the American Athletic Conference.

So does Tulane. The Green Wave have held their past three opponents to an average of 11 points. One of these foes was Trent Dilfer's UAB, which just scored 56 points against South Florida last Saturday.

The Green Wave rank 10th in run defense, which is bad news for Memphis running back Blake Watson. The Tigers do lead the AAC in time of possession. So I believe they will stay committed to a ground attack in order to keep the ball away from Pratt. Plus Memphis QB Seth Henigan has been hurt by interceptions. He's been picked off five times on 175 throws.

This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games.

Denver's defense is way down from previous seasons. But it's not as bad as the Dolphins, with their 4X100 team of relay runners, made it look during that 70-20 Week 3 Miami victory.

Patrick Mahomes is still getting acclimated to his young wide receiving group. They are not making Mahomes look good. Mahomes already has thrown four interceptions. Travis Kelce is likely to play, but he's not 100 percent. The weather conditions favor more running than usual with the wind factor at 15-25 mph. The total has gone way down because of that.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as Kansas City's top runner. Nothing against Pacheco, but backing Denver I'd rather see much more of him than Mahomes. The Broncos are expected to get back from injury their best running back, Javonte Williams.

As bad as the Broncos were last season, they played the Chiefs tough in both games losing, 34- 28 and 27-24. The Broncos are supposed to be better coached this year.

Certainly the Broncos won't lack motivation knowing they have a chance to redeem themselves for their disappointing season. Note that two of Denver's four losses were by a combined three points. If the Broncos would have won those games and not blown a second-half lead against the Jets last week, they would be 4-1 and the point spread would be much lower.

Colorado won't have team captain Gabriel Landeskog as he still is recovering from knee surgery. But I like the rest of the makeup of the Avalanche as they begin the season highly motivated after an early playoff exit last season.

The Avalanche won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago keyed by elite talents and strong depth. Colorado improved their depth in the off-season and still have superstars Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. They give the Avalanche easily the two best players on the ice in this matchup.

Colorado also holds a big edge in net. I don't like any of the Kings' goalies.

The Avalanche know how to win on the road, too, going 31-11-2 in away games last season.

It will be a festive opening night of the hockey season for the Las Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday. There will be a special ceremony prior to the game raising the Golden Knights' Stanley Cup banner. The Vegas players will enter on a special gold carpet.

This pomp is all very nice, but also very distracting.

The Golden Knights are playing the wrong opponent for all this pregame hoopla.

Seattle is one of the few teams that can come close to matching the Golden Knights' four-line depth. The Kraken are a hard-working team strong on the forecheck.

The Kraken beat the Golden Knights in Las Vegas last season and can do it again on Tuesday especially if the Golden Knights get caught up in all the pregame celebrations.

The Kraken knocked off the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs last season and then took the Stars to a Game 7 in the next round. They were one win away from meeting the Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals.

This total may seem a little low because Christian Javier is one of the starters. But it's not. Javier has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts and is a proven big-game pitcher. He has a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 32 2/3 postseason innings. Javier is backed by an Astros bullpen that had the sixth-lowest ERA during the regular season.

The Twins have reliable Sonny Gray on the hill. He had a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts spanning 184 innings in the regular season. He pitched five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in the wild-card series. Gray has a 2.39 ERA in five career playoff starts and a 3.03 ERA in 12 career starts versus Houston.

The kicker is that Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's known for a generous strike zone. The Under cashed 57 percent of the time in his 28 games behind the plate this year.

If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas.

I disagree. In my view, the 49ers are the best team in football right now and it's not that close.

These teams have current history. The 49ers have eliminated the Cowboys in the postseason each of the past two seasons winning, 19-12 last season and 23-17 two seasons ago. I don't expect this game to be that close.

The 49ers have been ridiculously dominant at Levi's Stadium covering 15 of their last 17 games there. All but three of those victories came by double-digits. San Francisco has won by at least two TD's in eight of Brock Purdy's nine home starts. Christian McCaffrey would get my MVP vote right now having gained 100 yards from scrimmage and scored at least one TD in all four of the 49ers' games.

The Cowboys are a good team, but not great like the 49ers. Dallas lost to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 28-16. The 49ers just whipped the Cardinals, 35-16, this past Sunday.

The 49ers were 5-for-5 scoring TD's inside the red zone against Arizona. The Cowboys have red zone issues scoring only seven TD's in 19 trips inside the red zone. The Cowboys have fatten up their scoring statistics by getting three TD's from their defense/special teams.

Dallas' brain trust of Brian Scottenheimer and increased input from Mike McCarthy isn't trustworthy against this caliber of defense. The Cowboys were better off when they had Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator last year.

Perhaps it was the pressure of playing in their first home playoff game in nine years before a packed crowd. But the Orioles let Game 1 of their playoff series against the Rangers slip by in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. 

The Orioles have proven resilient all season. I see them bouncing back behind rookie pitcher Grayson Rodriguez against lefty Jordan Montgomery. 

Rodriguez, a high ceiling prospect, found his groove down the home stretch. He didn't allow more than two earned runs during any of his last six starts. Rodriguez was 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. 

Texas finished the regular season with a losing road record. Baltimore was 49-32 at home.

The Orioles also were 36-17 versus lefty starters. No other team had more than 30 victories against southpaw starters. 

Montgomery has been pitching well, too. But he has a 3.72 day time ERA and the Orioles were in the top-10 in many offensive categories against lefties including, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. 

The Orioles were far-and-away the most profitable team for bettors this season. I have no qualms backing them at this low of a home lay price.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been better than perceived. Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, Puka Nacua has put up Cooper Kupp-type numbers and LA's defense has shown solid improvement. Aaron Donald still is around to create havoc.

The Eagles are traveling cross-country following an overtime division win against the Commanders. So this isn't a great spot for them.

Philly's glaring weakness is pass defense. They rank 27th. Stafford and Co. can take advantage of that - and that's not figuring Kupp is going to play. If he does, it's just an added bonus. The Eagles have surrendered 28 points to the Vikings and 31 to the Commanders.

The Rams should be well prepared for this non-division matchup. They just faced the Colts and their mobile QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have Eagles tendencies coached by Shane Steichen, who was the Eagles' offensive coordinator last season.

It's only fitting that New York and Las Vegas meet in the WNBA Championship Series. Both are superpowers loaded with star power and clearly the two best teams in the WNBA.

Las Vegas was the best team during the first half of the season. But two things may have changed that.

The Aces lost starter and former league superstar Candace Parker to a severe ankle injury and the Liberty got better as the season progressed.

New York defeated the Aces in three of four meetings following the All-Star break when it was beginning to peak and Parker was out. Kiah Stokes replaced Parker. Stokes is a good rebounder and defender, but has no offensive game. Parker being out also taxes the Aces' limited depth.

The Liberty are the one opponent good enough to exploit this situation. The Liberty has a lineup full of scorers and rebounders, while Las Vegas is almost playing 4-on-5 when it has the ball because of Stokes' offensive limitations.  

Maybe the Aces still are the superior team. But I'll take this many points to find that out.

I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot.

Tennessee is averaging 27.8 points in its last seven games against Indianapolis. The Colts' defense carries a high fatigue rating having been involved in overtime games the last two weeks. Indy's defense was on the field for more than 32 minutes against Baltimore chasing Lamar Jackson and for nearly 40 minutes against the Rams this past Sunday. The bruising Henry is about the last running back the Colts want to face.

The Titans' offensive line could improve immensely with the return of tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere from suspension and if guard Peter Skoronski can play after being out with illness. Those are their two best offensive linemen.

Again, the bar is not set high going against the Colts' defense. It's an added plus playing on a fast track inside Indy's dome stadium.

Early reports on Shane Steichen are very positive. He's an aggressive, offensive guru who has helped accelerate the progress of rookie QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts showed no quit last week rallying from 23 points down in the second half against the Rams to force overtime. Richardson's effective dual threat talents can only be helped by the expected return of star running back Jonathan Taylor.

The Titans rank 23rd in pass defense. They've managed just three takeaways.

Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. 

Since then, the Jaguars lost, 34-30, to Central Michigan as a 16 1/2-point home favorite and lost to James Madison, 31-22, as a 1-point road 'dog. They are 1-4 ATS on the season. 

It's Terry Bowden's third season at UL Monroe. Improvement has shown for the Warhawks under the respected Bowden. UL Monroe upset Army at home in its opener and should have upset Appalachian State as a 14-point home 'dog last week losing, 41-40, on a 54-yard field goal at the gun. 

The Warhawks have covered six of the past seven times they've been a home 'dog under Bowden. They've also played South Alabama tough. 

The Jaguars beat UL Monroe by seven points last season at home, but failed to cover as 17-point favorites. The Warhawks upset the Jaguars, 41-31, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs two seasons ago.

South Florida's Byrun Brown is one of the nation's more underrated dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulls are really starting to click under new coach Alex Golesh with Brown operating the offense at the fifth-fastest pace in the country.

The Bulls scored 42 points against Rice and 44 versus Navy in their last two games. UAB plays no defense under its new coach, former NFL QB Trent Dilfer. The Blazers are giving up an average of 43.5 points in their last four games. They rank 120th in total defense. This is a defense worse than what South Florida has encountered the past two weeks when it averaged 43 points.

Dilfer, though, has made the Blazers a downfield passing threat. The Blazers have the nation's No. 22 passing offense. Pass defense is South Florida's weakness. The Bulls rank 122nd in pass defense. They have only three takeaways.

Like South Florida, UAB plays at an extremely fast tempo. So don't be deterred going Over such a high total.

Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season.

I like the unbeaten 13th-ranked Cougars to beat UCLA straight-up so getting points is a bonus.

I trust Washington State QB Cameron Ward, who has completed nearly 75 percent of his throws for 1,390 yards and 13 TD's with no interceptions. UCLA QB Dante Moore can't match Ward at this early stage of his college career being a freshman and inconsistent.

Utah held the Bruins to just seven points in a 14-7 win in UCLA's last game. Moore was only 15-of-35 passing in that game. The Bruins were 3-for-17 on third down.

The Cougars have proven themselves with upset wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State.

The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season.

Chicago had the worst defense last season and there hasn't been any improvement. The Bears are giving up 34.3 points, rank 29th in pass defense and have only two sacks.

Washington's defense has been disappointing. The Commanders are surrendering 30 points a game.

Both teams have mobile, young QB's backed by good wide receivers.

Justin Fields threw for a career-best 335 yards and four TD's against Denver. He has D.J. Moore, a ''B'' level wide receiver, to target along with emerging tight end Cole Kmet.

Sam Howell has his own ''B'' level wideout, Terry McLaurin, along with reliable Jahan Dotson to go against a banged-up Chicago secondary. The Bears have given up 25 or more points in each of their last 14 games.

The Commanders also have one of the more respected offensive coordinators, Eric Bieniemy.

To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game.

These numbers include a surprising performance against Jacksonville State last Thursday when the Bearkats almost upset the Gamecocks losing, 35-28, in overtime.

But while the Bearkats are off a tough overtime loss, Liberty was idle last week. The Flames are 4-0 SU and ATS. They are prime contenders to win Conference USA. They've produced 33 or more points in each of their games. All of their victories have been by double-digits. QB Kaidon Salter has an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's only been sacked three times.

Sam Houston State ranks 116th in run defense. So Liberty should have its way both on the ground and through the air.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. 

Surprised? Don't be. Middle Tennessee State is the right side. 

The Blue Raiders have played a far tougher schedule than Jacksonville State going against Alabama, Missouri - who they lost to by just four points on the road - Colorado State and Western Kentucky. 

Middle Tennessee State desperately needs to win this home game to even its Conference USA record to 1-1. 

Jacksonville State had to come from two touchdowns behind to defeat winless Sam Houston State in overtime, 35-28. Sam Houston State entered that matchup as the most punchless team in the nation having scored 10 points during its first three games. 

That game was played this past Thursday. So the Gamecocks will be playing a second consecutive road game within the span of six days. 

The Diamondbacks are on house money after upsetting the Brewers, 6-3, in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Brewers on Tuesday. Arizona scored six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings off Milwaukee's two best pitchers, Corbin Burnes and closer Devin Williams.

Now the pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus Freddy Peralta.

Gallen is the superior pitcher yet Arizona is an underdog. I'll take the plus price with the loose Diamondbacks and with Gallen, who in two starts against the Brewers this season held Milwaukee to one earned run on six hits and two walks with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history.

Minnesota has lost 18 consecutive postseason games!

The Blue Jays had a better regular season record than the Twins. Gausman is a better pitcher than Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez. Yet the Twins opened as the favorite.

Gausman is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA. He led the AL in strikeouts with 237 in 185 innings. Lopez is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA.

Wrong team favored, so I'll be on the Blue Jays.

It comes down to this. The Seahawks are at least a tier better than the Giants. New York isn't very good right now. The Giants are lucky to be 1-2 having led for the grand total of 19 seconds this season.

Seattle gets back one of its top defensive players, versatile safety Jamal Adams, while the Giants are likely to be missing two of their three best offensive players with left tackle Andrew Thomas ruled out and Saquon Barkley doubtful with an ankle injury.

Since laying an egg against the Rams opening week, the Seahawks have beaten the Lions on the road and Panthers. Seattle scored 37 points in each of those wins. I like the Seahawks' skill position players much better than the Giants especially if Barkley is a no-good.

The Giants will have a different offensive line for the fourth time in four weeks. They rank in the bottom-four in points, total yards and passing yards. Daniel Jones has been sacked an average of four times per game.

New York is equally bad on defense. The Giants have no takeaways. They rank in the bottom-five in scoring defense and run defense. I expect emerging star Kenneth Walker III to have a big rushing game thus setting up Geno Smith for effective play-action passes.

The teams met in Seattle last season. The Seahawks won, 27-13.

The Seahawks have a fantastic record in prime-time games under Pete Carroll going 33-14-1 for 70 percent. Seattle won't be holding anything back either being idle this week following this game.

No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game.

Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection.

The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy.

This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.

The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think.

The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins.

New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week.

The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry.

The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor.

These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29.

While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number.

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. 

I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. 

The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. 

Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. 

The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. 

The Dolphins are on top of the world after their 70-20 burial of the Broncos. Miami deserves all the plaudits. Lost in the glare of the Dolphins' pin-ball attack, though, are the Bills.

After losing in overtime to the fired-up Jets opening Monday night, Buffalo has gotten untracked rolling past the Raiders and Commanders by the combined score of 75-13.

The Bills have defeated Miami seven straight times at home. Buffalo is 6-1 in its last seven home games, including defeating the Dolphins twice during this span.

The Dolphins appear improved. But the Bills still have the better quarterback with Josh Allen and the superior defense. Miami should get back Jaylen Waddle, however, offensive left tackle Terron Armstead is likely to be out again. The Bills have the pass rushers to take advantage of that.

I see this as a buy-low opportunity on the Bills because the Dolphins are off such a mind-boggling performance against an 0-3 team.

Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL.

Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players.

Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had.

Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career.

The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points.

Georgia State is staking an early claim to be the best team in the Sun Belt Conference off to a 4-0 start. The Panthers are positioned well to continue their success against Troy, which is 2-2 but has yet to cover a point spread.

The Panthers are home and on extra rest having defeated Coastal Carolina last Thursday, 30-17, as a 5-point road 'dog. Troy has played just once on the road. The Trojans were blown out, 42-13, by Kansas State in that game.

Georgia State has a good dual threat QB, Danny Grainger, and one of the best running backs, Marcus Carroll, in the country. Carroll is fifth in the nation in rushing yards with 508 and has scored the most rushing TD's of any running back with eight.

The Panthers' defensive strength is their 23rd-ranked run defense. Troy has trouble running the ball.

The teams did not meet last season. But Georgia State beat and covered against the Trojans in 2021, 2020 and 2019. The Panthers won those games by an average margin of 16 points.

Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that.

Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach.

I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season.

I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives.

First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th.

I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click.

Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State.

Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin.

I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here.

Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards.

Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo.

Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games.

Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator.

I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times.

Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace.

The Cardinals have been one of the major disappointments of the season. That's the way they're finishing, too.

St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Cardinals are averaging a puny 2.1 runs per game during their last 10 games.

The Reds are 6-3 in their past nine road games. They are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, which should ensure motivation and a strong effort.

The pitching matchup is rookie Brandon Williamson versus Jake Woodford. I like Williamson better although this is an action play. Woodford is taking the place of Adam Wainwright, who was shut down after earning his 200th career victory. Woodford has a 5.09 ERA.

The spot sets up perfectly for Winnipeg to get a semblance of revenge against Toronto. This is the first meeting between the two teams after the Blue Bombers lost by one point to Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. Winnipeg was a five-point favorite in that game.

Now the Blue Bombers, off a bye, get the Argonauts at home when Toronto will be resting key players after wrapping up first place in the East Division.

Among those Toronto players sitting out is QB Chad Kelly and linebacker Wynton McManis, a key defensive cog.

Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night.

So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over.

It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run.

The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means.

Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday.

Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore.

Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties.

Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified.

It's not just that both defenses have improved as to why I like the Under.

Check out the injury situation. I expect Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to play for Green Bay. Jones is a major upgrade on plodding A.J. Dillon, who is an Under bettor's dream every time he carries the ball for his two yards up the middle. But don't overlook offensive line injuries. As many as five starting offensive linemen could be missing.

The Packers definitely won't have their two best offensive lineman as left tackle David Bakhitari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are out. The Lions won't have right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit also could be minus their other starting guard, Jonah Jackson, and left tackle Taylor Decker. Both Jackson and Decker are questionable.

There are quarterback issues, too. Jared Goff isn't mobile and has a history of not playing as well outdoors on grass as he does inside a dome. Jordan Love has accuracy issues and is averaging just 6.8 yards a completion.

Rashuan Gary is back for Green Bay. He had three sacks against the Saints last Sunday. Gary ranked tied for No. 2 in pressure percentage through the first eight games last season. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth game and the Packers lost their pass rush without him.

The Lions have a stud defensive lineman, too, in Aidan Hutchinson. Gary and Hutchinson aren't at the Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa top passing rushing level. But they arguably could be in the second tier of pass rushers.

The Lions held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing on 20 carries last Sunday. Atlanta entered that matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing at 170.5 yards per game. They had rushed for 100 yards in 18 of their previous 19 games. Detroit defensive back Brian Branch came out of that game as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year player.

Note, too, this is a division matchup on a short week. These teams know each other well and there isn't time for them to put in new wrinkles.

The Brewers have dropped three consecutive games. But they still were able to clinch the National League Central Division title on Tuesday when the Cubs lost to the Braves.

Milwaukee isn't playing that well, doesn't have much incentive after clinching last night and is facing lefty, Zack Thompson. He's mediocre at best, but the Brewers don't hit lefties very well. They rank in the bottom-12 in the major categories versus southpaws. Milwaukee is 20-25 against lefties.

The Cardinals are looking to close a very disappointing season on a strong note. They draw veteran journeyman Wade Miley.

At this plus price, I'll fade Milwaukee given the circumstances.

Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times.

The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse.

I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games.

The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games.

Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road.

This is a cheap price to get the Rays, who have won 20 more games than the 76-81 Red Sox.

Tampa Bay is averaging seven runs in its last three games and draws Brayan Bello, a promising pitcher who has hit the wall with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Bello was shelled by the Rangers in his past start last Wednesday giving up eight runs in three innings.

The Rays hold a big edge on the mound starting Tyler Glasnow, who is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 10 career starts versus Boston. He faced the Red Sox earlier this month and struck out 14 in six innings allowing just one run.

Tampa Bay has owned Boston this season winning 10 of the 12 meetings.

New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White.

Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points.

The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points.

So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits.

The Guardians are out of the playoff chase. The Reds are not. Cincinnati is in must-win mode and have hot Hunter Greene going against disappointing Lucas Giolito.

Greene is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts against the Twins this past Wednesday. Greene is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his past four starts. He has 35 strikeouts in his last 24 innings.

Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. He's been tagged for 37 homers. He's becoming more of a journeyman than an above average starter. Giolito's teams are 2-12 during his last 14 starts.

The Reds are playing a lot of youth. Their young players are highly talented. They are on house money so they should be loose and not feel the pressure.

The Padres waited way too long. But they are on a season-best 9-1 hot streak. The Giants are going the opposite way - 2-8 in their last 10 games.

San Francisco has ace Logan Webb pitching at home here. Webb, however, is trumped by Blake Snell, the most effective pitcher in the National League.

Snell's season numbers are 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 174 innings. Webb can't match that at 10-13 with a 3.35 ERA.
What's so impressive about Snell, though, is his current form. He's working on 13 straight scoreless innings, allowing only two base runners in his past two starts. Snell is 5-1 career-wise against San Francisco with a 1.83 ERA.

San Diego is 10-1 in Snell's last 11 starts.

Rarely will I go against Webb when he pitches at home. But this is the exception, getting the much hotter team with the best pitcher in the league at a low lay price.

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

This is a low total in today's NFL. I understand why the oddsmaker made it. The Panthers have shown nothing on offense. Seattle is missing its starting offensive tackles.

However, there is more than meets the eye here as to why this total should be higher.

Bryce Young hasn't moved the Carolina offense. But the rookie isn't going to play. Veteran Andy Dalton is. Look, I'm not a big Dalton fan. Never have been even when it was with the Bengals and was a decent starting QB. But Dalton is the right QB for the Panthers given Carolina's offensive limitations.

Dalton is a veteran. He'll take what the defense gives him and Seattle's defense is missing cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Free safety Quandre Diggs isn't likely to play either because of a hamstring injury. Dalton can take advantage of this and provide more stability than the work-in-progress Young could. Dalton has veteran pass-catchers Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst along with promising rookie Jonathan Mingo. The Panthers will be able to move the sticks.

The Seahawks got around their cluster injury problem at offensive tackle by having Geno Smith throw short. Seattle put up 37 points on the Lions on the road last week despite not having its starting offensive tackles. It's not like left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas were All-Pro-caliber either.

Smith has one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Kenneth Walker is an above average running back.

The Panthers are missing two key defensive players with their No. 1 cornerback, Jaycee Horn, out with a hamstring injury and steady, veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson out with a leg/ankle injury.

The Patriots are in must-win mode being 0-2. Luckily they draw their favorite patsy - the Jets. New England has beaten the Jets 14 straight times.

New England has held the Jets to an average of 9.7 points during the last four games. New York might not reach 10 points again with a porous offensive line and Zach Wilson back at quarterback.

Bill Belichick scheming against a Wilson-led offense is a monster mismatch. The Jets can keep deceiving themselves, but the truth is Wilson is a stiff, a colossal draft bust. Wilson faced a strong defense last week. He had a 38.1 quarterback rating against the Cowboys. Already, Wilson has been intercepted four times.

New England's offense is far from dynamic, but it's improved enough to produce 17-to-20 points here. That would be enough given the Jets' impotent attack.

So look for the Patriots to make it 15 wins in a row against the Jets.

This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are mad after blowing a double-digit lead to the Falcons this past Sunday. This is their first home game.

New Orleans goes on the road for a second straight week. The Saints have to travel on a short week after holding off Carolina this past Monday night.

The early returns on Jordan Love are positive. Love enters this week tied for the most passing TD's in the league with six. The Saints have a new starting QB, too, Derek Carr. He hasn't made a major impact.

New Orleans is averaging 18 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Packers have an improved defense and the Saints are likely to be down to third-string running back Tony Jones with Alvin Kamara suspended and Jamaal Williams injuring his hamstring against Carolina.

The Saints are 2-0 having beaten the Titans and Panthers by a combined four points. They are an indoor, carpet team coming to Lambeau Field and its grass field.

Matt LaFleur is a perfect 5-0 when the Packers have met an unbeaten opponent.

The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans.

The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week.

But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad.

Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers.

Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters.

The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

Detroit's Ford Field indoor dome is the football equivalent of Colorado's Coors Field when it comes to high scoring.

I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games.

I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best.

The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season.

Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread.

Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin.

Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020.

The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season.

No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing.

I see it differently.

I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good.

Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame.

I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year.

Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week.

The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame.

Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace.

Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast.

Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite.

But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas.

I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner.

Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech.

The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings.

At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner.

But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range.

The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense.

Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing.

BC may not have much left in the tank after pulling out a 41-37 victory against Ottawa last Saturday after staging their greatest home comeback. The Lions were down 19 points after the third quarter and trailed by 16 with 2:22 left. The Lions' final points came on a TD pass with 16 seconds left.

Now the Lions have to travel to Edmonton. They are 2-0 against the Elks beating them by a combined, 49-0. That was part of Edmonton's 0-9 start. However, Edmonton has turned around its season with a QB change to Tre Ford.

Sparked by Ford, the Elks are 4-1 in their last five games and highly motivated. Edmonton is averaging 30.5 points in its last four games. BC is surrendering an average of 31.5 points in its last four games.

The pitching matchup is Shane Bieber versus Dean Kremer. That is misleading. So are the Guardians being the favorites.

Cleveland is eight games below .500 on the season. Baltimore is 37 games above .500.

The Guardians are trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. It's not realistic. The Orioles have motivation, too, being just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East.

Bieber isn't the Bieber of past dominant seasons. He was 5-6 with a 3.77 ERA before going on the IL following his July 9 start. He hadn't pitched since and will be on around an 80-pitch count.

Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.17 ERA. That ERA drops to 3.51 when he pitches on the road.

Wisconsin is more balanced on offense, but weaker on defense. Purdue is weak defensively. So look for a higher total than what the oddsmaker has projected.

The Boilermakers are surrendering 30.3 points a game and rank 108th in total defense.

SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. One thing that hasn't changed about the Badgers is having a star running back. That's Braelon Allen. But he's not even the Badgers' leading rusher. Chez Mellusi is. He and Allen are averaging a combined 174 yards rushing a game. They each have four TD's.

Purdue hasn't faced this good of an offense having played Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse.

The Boilermakers aren't going to get many stops. But the Badgers are going to encounter their own defense struggles trying to contain QB Hudson Card as their secondary is way down from past seasons. Wisconsin ranks 115th in pass defense.

Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin threw for 383 yards against Wisconsin last week. Card is better than Brin.

Both teams play at a faster than average tempo, too.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State.

I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground.

Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season.

Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game.

David Peterson pitches bad on the road. Ranger Suarez is lousy at home. Both teams have been consistently scoring at better than a 5-run per game pace. The game is at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. So I see no reason for each team not to score at least four runs apiece.

Peterson is 1-6 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 10 road starts. He has a 5.53 career ERA in six starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia is averaging 5.5 runs per game during its last dozen games.

Suarez is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's never beaten the Mets in five career starts against them posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.

The Mets are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games.

Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota.

The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series.

Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games.

Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense.

Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest.

The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest.

At this late juncture of the season we know who the Yankees are: A .500 team. Actually New York is 76-75. Mediocre is a fitting description.

The Blue Jays are the more motivated team being in the playoff hunt. They've won four in a row following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox with a 7-1 victory against the Yankees last night.

I find this price low to back the superior Blue Jays with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman isn't having a great year, but he's been solid. He has a career 3.28 ERA versus the Yankees in 29 appearances, including 23 starts.

Converted reliever Michael King draws the start for New York. He's pitched well, but hasn't exceeded five innings all season. King entering the rotation thins the Yankees' bullpen.

Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go.

The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season.

But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings.

Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field.

Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29.

Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count.

San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here.

Anytime I see a total of less than nine on a Dodgers game, I think Over.

This Detroit-LA game isn't a pitching matchup of Mickey Lolich versus Sandy Koufax. It's Eduardo Rodriguez against Lance Lynn and both offenses are hot.

The Tigers are averaging 6.1 runs in their last six games. They've scored at least 5 runs in five of these games. The Tigers have gotten healthy and some of their young, promising offensive talent is developing.

Lynn is just an innings-eater mercenary at this late stage of his career. He's regressed since he first came to the Dodgers with a 9.37 ERA in his last three starts. Oh, yeah, he also has surrendered the most homers in the league at 41.

Rodriguez hasn't been sharp either, giving up seven earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. Rodriguez has permitted eight hits and a staggering nine walks during this time frame.

The Dodgers rank second in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. If you discount their one-run game against Blake Snell, the Dodgers are averaging 7.5 runs in their last nine games.

I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one.

Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement.

I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67.

Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss.

The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS.

The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14.

This is a prime time Monday night game. But the Panthers are not a prime time team yet. Not with Bryce Young in his NFL infancy, lacking weapons and playing behind a mediocre offensive line that lost left guard Brady Christensen for the season last week against a New Orleans defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points per game during its last nine games.

Carolina was held to 10 points and 281 yards by the Falcons last Sunday. Young's longest completion was 14 yards. He threw for only 146 yards and was intercepted twice. New Orleans has a better defense than Atlanta.

The Saints have given up an average of 11.2 points in their last four games going back to last season.

New Orleans also has the more dynamic offense with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, a finally-healthy Michael Thomas and emerging tight end Juwan Johnson. The Panthers lost one of their better players in their secondary with cornerback Jaycee Horn suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out a while.

First-year Carolina coach Frank Reich has a history of slow starts. His Colts teams of the previous five years were 2-5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS during the first two weeks of the season.

The Saints are serious playoff contenders. The Panthers are in rebuild mode. New Orleans is at least one, if not two tiers, higher than Carolina.

The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation.

Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds.

The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense.

Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do.

The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense.

These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium.

Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss.

The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage.

Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past.

The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals.

Elite coach Brian Daboll will be cracking the whip hard after the Giants were humiliated on national television by the Cowboys this past Sunday night. The Giants draw the perfect patsy to retain their identity and get their self-respect back.

All the Giants need to do to cover this number is play a relatively clean game, something the Commanders couldn't do last week when they beat the Cardinals but failed to cover.

Daniel Jones has the most speed he's had at wide receiver and an elite tight end in Darren Waller to go with top-five running back Saquan Barkley.

The Cardinals' pop-gun attack can't compete against that with no threat of a downfield passing attack.

These two teams played in 2021. Seattle won, 51-29. The two teams played again last year this time in Detroit. Seattle won, 48-45.

Now look at how low the total is for this year's matchup.

I find it to be an overreaction to the Seahawks' dismal performance in their 30-13 home loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Not only were the Seahawks shut out in the second half, but they lost both of their starting offensive tackles to injuries.

I'm expecting a lot of points to be scored here just like in the previous two meetings. The conditions are perfect being on a fast track inside a dome.

Geno Smith played well last year. One bad game doesn't alter that. He has three dangerous wideouts and a potential star at running back, Kenneth Walker. The Lions may be improved defensively, but not by that much. They gave up the most yards in the NFL last season, 392.4, and ranked 26th in scoring defense.

As for Seattle's tackle situation, they lost Abraham Lucas but may get back Charles Cross. He's questionable with a toe injury. The Seahawks were very proactive about these injuries, signing Jason Peters. If nine-time Pro Bowl selection Peters has anything left at 41, the Seahawks will be fine.

The Lions averaged 33.1 points in their nine home games last season. Their offense could be even better this season with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has the longest streak in the league of not throwing an interception with 359 passes of no interceptions.

Seattle could be minus star safety Jamal Adams. He missed opening week with a quad injury. Matthew Stafford took advantage of that to throw for 334 yards despite not having Cooper Kupp.

Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010.

It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play.

Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect.

The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season.

Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs.

The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley.

I'm expecting a quarterback shootout between Chevan Cordeiro, perhaps the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference, and Toledo stud DeQuan Finn. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have good receiving weapons particularly Finn, who has an excellent trio of Jerijuan Newton, CC Ezirim and Junior Vandeross.

San Jose State has played two Division I schools - Pac-12 foes USC and Oregon State. The Spartans couldn't stop either team on the ground or through the air. The result was giving up 56 points to USC and 42 to the Beavers.

Toledo just put up 71 points on Texas Southern in its last game. The Rockets' other game was a 30-28 road loss to Illinois.

I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators.

Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag.

Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense.

Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins.

The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77.

The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome.

Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season.

Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk.

Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis.

The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals.

Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors.

The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's.

The teams just met six days ago in Toronto. It wasn't pretty for Montreal. The Argonauts carved up the Alouettes winning, 39-10.

I'm expecting even more points in today's rematch.

Toronto has scored 31 or more points in 10 of its 11 games. The Argos are averaging 40.7 points in their last four games. Their quarterback, Chad Kelly, has accounted for 26 TD's on the season, including a league-high eight on the ground.

Montreal isn't going to be able to slow down Toronto's balanced attack. But I expect the Alouettes to do their share of their scoring to help get this total Over.

The Argos have surrendered an average of 25 points during their last four games. Montreal has scored at least 25 points in six of its last eight games.

Montreal QB Cody Fajardo is mobile and has the CFL's receiving yardage leader, Austin Mack. William Stanback is one of the better running backs in the league. So Montreal doesn't lack weapons.

Each team probably is going to be missing an important speed/power guy. Dynamic Jazz Chisholm got hurt again for the Marlins in Wednesday's game leaving in the fourth inning with a knee injury. Christian Yelich has missed the past five games because of a back injury. The Brewers have scored 3 or fewer runs in three of their last four games.

Eury Perez is one of Miami's excellent pitching prospects. He's 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA on the season.

Adrian Houser, a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, gets the call for Milwaukee. But Houser is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA in three career appearances versus the Marlins, including two starts. The Brewers have a rested stud closer in Devin Williams to call on if needed.

Brennan Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed at 58 percent the past two seasons he's been behind the plate spanning 43 games.

The Mets took advantage of the Diamondbacks having to pitch a bottom-of-the-end rotation guy on Tuesday. But now Arizona is coming in with its ace, Zac Gallen.

Gallen doesn't pitch as well on the road, but he's still a stud and in the NL Cy Young Award conversation with a 15-7 record and 3.31 ERA. Opponents are batting only .229 against him.

The Diamondbacks are battling hard with five other teams for a wildcard playoff spot. They have incentive. The Mets don't. They are 12 games below .500. Mets manager Buck Showalter is trying to balance his veterans with youth knowing his team is in rebuild mode.

I'd stay away from this game if the Mets were going to pitch Kodai Senga because he's tough at home. But the Mets are giving Senga extra rest. Instead they are starting journeyman Joey Lucchesi, who hasn't pitched since Aug. 19. Lucchesi has made six starts this year. Only one was a quality start. So the Mets could be turning to their bullpen early.

Taj Bradley is a huge strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. Dallas Keuchel has been washed up for several years. Somehow, though, he's made his way on to the Twins' roster.

I don't see Keuchel successfully navigating through a deep Rays lineup that has power and speed. Tampa ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and steals.

Bradley has 111 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Twins strike out more than any team in the majors.

Neither starter, Patrick Sandoval nor rookie Bryan Woo, is in good form. The bullpens have mileage on them.

So it's not too big of a task for each team to produce at least four runs.

Seattle has done that in five of its last seven games. The Mariners rank 10th in runs and homers. They draw Sandoval, who has surrendered nine earned runs in his past two starts spanning 8 2/3 innings. During this two-game span, Sandoval has given up 12 hits and seven walks. The Angels have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA.

Woo is off his second-worst outing of the season. He gave up five earned runs to the Reds in five innings during his last start.

I'm not counting on it, but there's a chance Shohei Ohtani returns to the Angels' lineup today. He was nearly ready last night.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

The underdog Marlins are playing well, winners of eight of their last 10 games. They catch the Brewers at what should be a good time.

This is Milwaukee's first game back home following a six-game road trip that concluded Sunday with an unbelievable loss to the Yankees. Corbin Burnes threw a no-hitter for eight innings. All together, Milwaukee pitchers didn't allow a hit for 10 1/3 innings. Yet Milwaukee lost the game in 13 innings.

That bizarre defeat has to be on the Brewers' minds as they return home, not to mention getting acclimated to seeing their families returning from a road trip. So their concentration may not be at peak efficiency.

The Brewers do have Brandon Woodruff starting. He's 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA. Very solid. But the Marlins also have a hot pitcher, lefty Jesus Luzardo. He's given up only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 18 innings with a 1.00 ERA and 0.61 WHIP during this span. Luzardo hasn't faced weak competition either during this time frame pitching against the Dodgers, Rays and Padres.

Milwaukee has never faced Luzardo before giving him the element of surprise. The Brewers fare much worse against southpaws, too. They are 62-41 versus righty starters, but 17-22 against lefties. The Brewers average only 3.2 runs against lefties, ranking in the bottom-seven in batting average and slugging percentage against them.

It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll.

After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack.

When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games.

Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball.

So there's no reason to overthink this matchup.

Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively.

Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers.

Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring.

Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards.

Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line.

Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can.

Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers.

The good news for the Patriots offense is they'll get better coaching with Bill O'Brien taking over as offensive coordinator from the clown show they had last season.

The bad news is New England's offense still appears very tepid. The offensive line already is banged-up, Mac Jones excites no one and Rhamondre Stevenson, the one above average Patriot skill position player, is questionable due to illness. Ezekiel Elliott was brought in, but he's nothing more than a plus for the Under with his high mileage and boring north/south running style.

The Eagles have the premier defensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia had 70 sacks last season. The next closest team, the Chiefs, had 55. I see the Eagles dominating the Patriots' offensive line.

Once again, the Patriots' strength is their defense. Bill Belichick is especially effective with extra time to prepare. The Patriots have held their last four Week 1 foes to an average of 12.7 points a game. It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in each of New England's past five openers.