The Cavaliers are healthy and dangerous. The Warriors found that out the hard way when they lost to Cleveland, 118-110, as 4 1/2-point home favorites two days ago. Now the Cavaliers take on a much worse Sacramento team that is unlikely to have its key player, DeAaron Fox. 

Fox has missed the last five games with a right ankle sprain. He's listed as doubtful. The Kings are 2-3 in those games, which include two blowout losses to the Rockets. One of the victories was at home in overtime against the 3-6 Trail Blazers. 

If you discount the victory against Portland in which they were a 7 1/2-point favorite, the Kings are averaging 98 points in their last four games. They rank 28th in the league in field goal percentage. 

The Cavaliers have Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 29.5 points, Caris LeVert, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. That's a much better core than the Kings especially if Fox remains out.  

Cleveland is averaging 117.2 points in its last four games. The Cavaliers have scored at least 116 points in each of those four contests.

I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th.

So I see value taking this many points. The Wolf Pack have the good guards needed to hit 3-pointers and get to the free throw line against the Huskies' 2-3 zone defense they constantly employ.

Nevada also has the size necessary to rebound with tall Washington. 

The Huskies hosted Northern Kentucky in their last game. The Huskies failed to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites, winning by only eight. It was not an impressive win. 

The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants.

Those results have made the Jets underpriced here and the Raiders overpriced.

Let's start with the Raiders. Their defense is bad even with Maxx Crosby. Rookie Aidan O'Connell isn't any better than Zach Wilson. Davante Adams is wasted in the Raiders' offense. Adams has caught five passes for 45 yards the last two weeks. He hasn't gone above 57 yards receiving in his last five games.

Canning McDaniels was the right thing to do for the Raiders. But interim coach Antonio Pierce isn't a head coach. The Raiders rode enthusiasm and a historically bad Giants offense to an easy victory last week. Pierce didn't really have to do anything. That rare emotion from the Raiders is not sustainable. Pierce is going to find himself way over his head similar to Jeff Saturday with the Colts last year.

The Jets' defense is at least two levels higher, if not three levels above the Raiders. The Jets like to believe they are serious playoff contenders owning victories against the Bills and Eagles. If they are, they can't afford to lose to this opponent.

It's the Jets who should be the more motivated team this week following a bad home loss on Monday night. Getting out of New York actually should work in their favor.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

If there's one thing the Falcons can do it's beat bad teams such as the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-2 against .500 or below foes.

Stubborn and unlikeable Arthur Smith has yet to figure out that Bijan Robinson is worth using, but at least he made the right QB switch to Taylor Heinicke, who gives a spark and experience the Falcons lacked with Desmond Ridder under center. Heinicke should get back Atlanta's best wide receiver, Drake London.

The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. Maybe they'll improve with Kyler Murray back. It remains to be seen how rusty Murray could be and if he's lost any mobility. The Falcons should be ready for Murray after having just faced another QB, Joshua Dobbs, who has the ability to break containment and get outside.

The Falcons and Smith are a laughing stock right now after losing to Dobbs and the Vikings last week. They'll seek redemption here against this layup opponent.

After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers.

Each team is off their bye. The timing works out much better for San Francisco. I'm expecting Deebo Samuel and offensive left tackle Trent Williams to return to the 49ers' lineup following the extra time off. That will make Brock Purdy reach peak efficiency again.

Jacksonville entered its bye winning and covering five in a row. That momentum could get stalled.

The Jaguars have come up with 18 takeaways, an average of 2.2 per game. If the 49ers play a clean game, they should win being the superior team.

Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. He's going to encounter a strong 49ers defense that will be bolstered by the return to health of underrated linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the addition of defensive line stud Chase Young from the Commanders. Nick Bosa is way overdue for a big game, too. It could come here.

The Falcons should have fired Arthur Smith for letting his Falcons lose, 31-28, to the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs last Sunday. It's not going to happen to defensive whiz Dennis Allen and the Saints.

Dobbs was a great story last week learning on the fly after being forced into Minnesota's starting lineup four days after joining the team when rookie QB Jaren Hall was injured. But there are reasons why Dobbs is on his eighth NFL team since coming into the league in 2017. The main reason being he can't throw downfield. Dobbs is 2-9 as an NFL starter.

The Saints have an above average defense. The Vikings rank 29th in rushing. They are without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and No. 3 wideout K.J. Osborn is questionable as is offensive left tackle Christian Darrisaw. This is the spot where the Vikings are really going to miss Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota has a below average defense. The Saints' offense has picked up with Alvin Kamara back from suspension and increased usage from multi-talented Taysom Hill. New Orleans has gained more than 400 yards in three of its last four games.

There's also a 13 turnover difference between the two teams. The Vikings are minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways, while New Orleans is plus 8 in that department.

First off, this is a very early Sunday start time. That's often a plus for the Under as teams are used to playing at night. 

Then you have the Knicks as the host team. New York has gone Under in six of its eight games. It's easy to see why looking at the statistics. The Knicks are last in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. However, they have the No. 2 defense in the NBA allowing just 102.8 points. That number shrinks to 99 points if you go by their last six games. 

The Hornets just played the Wizards in back-to-back-games. Washington is the worst defensive team in the NBA. Charlotte's previous two games were versus the Mavericks, who rank 23rd defensively, and the Pacers, who rate 26th defensively. So this is quite a defensive upgrade the Hornets are facing. 

The Knicks haven't played since Wednesday. I see that extended layoff hurting their shooting more than their defense. New York figures to be rusty on offense. But the Knicks should have a solid defensive game plan given that their coach, Tom Thibodeau, is a defensive guru.

The Kings buried the Flyers, 5-0, on the road a week ago. This spot sets up for the Kings to win by multiple goals again.

LA has much to prove to home where it hasn't played well. The Penguins just beat the Kings two days ago in LA. The Kings have had a day to rest up and lick their wounds from that game, while the Flyers come in fat and happy after beating the Ducks last night.

The Flyers have major goalie issues with Carter Hart out. The Kings are expected to go back to Cam Talbot in net after Pheonix Copley played against the Penguins. Talbot is the superior goalie. Talbot is 3-0 with a GAA of 1.00 and save percentage of .966 this month. The Flyers have been held to two or fewer goals in four of their last six games.

The Kings don't play again until hosting the Panthers on Thursday. So expect an all-out effort from the Kings to achieve what has been elusive for them, a home victory. It should come here in a big way.

Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. 

The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense. 

TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed. 

The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. 

This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary.

California should have success passing, too. Washington State ranks 118th in pass defense and 88th in run defense. That should mean a strong game for Jaydn Ott, one of the best running backs in the country.

These teams play at a fast pace, too.

This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. 

Nevada's offensive line has allowed 74 tackles for a loss, fourth-highest in the country. Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West Conference in tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

The Aggies are just an average rushing team, but they rank 26th in passing yards. Nevada's defense has shown improvement holding their last three opponents to an average of 17 points. Utah State is turnover prone. The Aggies have thrown 13 interceptions. Only four teams have been picked off more times. 

This is a kill spot for the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights if there ever was one. Las Vegas has lost two in a row for the first time this season. The Golden Knights have been home since the early part of this week. They won't be taking the Sharks lightly after San Jose has won its last two games. The Golden Knights have no love lost either for the Sharks.

After opening with an 11-game winless streak, the Sharks have pulled major upsets beating the Flyers and Oilers at home. They nipped Edmonton, 3-2, last night. So the Sharks are traveling without rest while playing for the third time in four days.

The Sharks have lost by multiple goals in 10 of their 11 losses.

The Clippers are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this finale of their four-game road trip after losing the first three games. LA's 3-point shooting is due to improve. The Clippers are just 19-of-68 (28 percent) from 3-point range in their past two games, losses to the Knicks and Nets.

Dallas has surrendered at least 118 points in three of its past four games. Luka Doncic is going to get his points, but the Clippers have the better team with more star power. The Mavericks could be minus rookie center Dereck Lively II. He missed Dallas' last game two days ago due to illness. The result was the Raptors beat the Mavericks, 127-116, as four-point road 'dogs.

"We missed him (Lively) a lot,'' Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said after the loss to Toronto. "There was no one in the paint and that just shows how important he is to our team.''

If Lively plays, you wonder how much stamina he'll have? Either way, I don't believe the Clippers should be an underdog despite their recent shooting struggles. They have too many star players and will have motivation.

The Flames were a major disappointment in October, but they are coming around now. They have scored 13 goals in their last three games. I'm looking for a lot of offense from Calgary against the Maple Leafs, who are giving up an average of 4.8 goals in their last five games. Toronto ranks 28th defensively.

The Maple Leafs have explosive offensive talent, though. They've scored 3 or more goals in six of their last nine games, reaching at least 4 goals in five of those games.

The Over has cashed in five of Toronto's last seven home games.

There were 10 goals scored when the teams met on Oct. 25 with the Capitals pulling out a 6-4 road victory. It marked the fifth time in the last seven games in the series the Over has cashed.

I doubt we'll see another combined 10-goal game, but I do envision each team producing at least three goals.

Washington has gotten its offense into gear more after a slow start scoring 3 or more goals in four of its last six games. New Jersey is the 29th-ranked defensive team in the league. The Devils have permitted 3 or more goals in 11 of their 12 games.

The Devils, though, rank No. 5 in scoring and have the best power-play in the league.

I want Saint Mary's going for me in this spot. This is a monster revenge game for the Gaels. They've had this game circled ever since New Mexico upset them as a nine-point road underdog, 69-65, last season. That halted the Gaels' 23-game home win streak.

Credit to the Lobos for that great upset win, but I fear them a lot less when they are on the road.

New Mexico is an NIT team. Saint Mary's was a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and has many returning players.

Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.

The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.

The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.

Both teams are consistently scoring goals and going Over. I'm going to ride that again here.

Vancouver has scored 3 or more goals in 10 of its 12 games. The Canucks are averaging 4.8 goals in their last eight games.

Ottawa has produced 4 or more goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Senators are averaging 4.2 goals in their last four games.

The Over has cashed the last five times they have met.

De'Aaron Fox is the most important player on Sacramento's roster. He's out with an ankle injury. Fox didn't play in the Kings' last three games. Sacramento went 0-3 in those games, including getting blown out twice by the lowly Rockets.

So the Kings certainly can't be trusted to lay this many points. The spot isn't even good for them. This is their first home game in a week having played their past three games away from home.

Portland has won and covered in its last two road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. The Trail Blazers are playing solid defense giving up an average of 101.5 points in regulation during their last four games.

Usually I give pause when I see a total this high. But there's only way to play this game - and it's not Under.

There have been at least seven goals scored in eight of Ottawa's 10 games this season. The Senators are the fourth-highest scoring team in the league, but rank 28th defensively.

Toronto has explosive offensive talent. The Maple Leafs are averaging five goals in their last two games. However, they've allowed 4.5 goals per game in their last four games. 

Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.

Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.

The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.

So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.

Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.

Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.

The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.

I'm expecting a big scoring effort from Colorado at home after it was blanked, 7-0, by the Golden Knights this past Saturday in Las Vegas. Colorado allowed two short-handed goals in that loss. The Avalanche had scored 4 or more goals in five of their last seven games before that shutout.

New Jersey ranks 23rd defensively allowing 3.5 goals a game. The Devils also are below average on the penalty kill. They've allowed at least 3 goals in eight of their 10 games.

The Devils, though, rank No. 3 in scoring. averaging 3.9 goals per game. They rank No. 1 on the power play, too. The Over has cashed in 80 percent of the Devils' games this season.

UNC Asheville isn't getting enough respect here. The Bulldogs won the Big South last season to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. They finished 27-7.

Michigan is in regroup mode after losing Hunter Dickinson, their top scorer and rebounder. He transferred to Kansas. The Wolverines also lost guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, both of whom were selected in the NBA draft. Michigan also doesn't have Jace Howard, who is out with a stress fracture to his knee. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard underwent heart surgery in September so he's in recovery.

The timing is ripe for Asheville to spring a major upset.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

Northern Iowa should be much improved from its 12-20 record of last season. The Panthers return nine of its top 10 scorers along with having three highly touted freshmen. Two of the Panthers' returners, Tylan Anderson and Bowen Born, were named to the All-Missouri Valley preseason all-conference team.

North Texas was an impressive 31-7 last season. However, the Mean Green lost their three top scorers. They don't have the bench strength that Northern Iowa has.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

The Wizards are a tough team to get behind with their lack of defense. But this is a good spot for them.

The 76ers are fat and happy having four in a row, the last three coming at home. They just had a satisfying win against the Suns this past Saturday.

Up next for the 76ers is arch-rival Boston. The 76ers host the unbeaten Celtics on Wednesday. That's the game they are pointing to. It could mean fewer minutes for Joel Embiid in tonight's game.

The Wizards haven't played since Friday. After beating the Grizzlies at home, the Wizards have lost three in a row. They are frustrated. This is an important game for them. Washington ranks in the top-12 in scoring and shooting percentage.

College of Charleston went 31-4  last season, reaching No. 18 in the AP Top 25 poll and earning an NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars should be good again with a strong junior class and balanced scoring. 

I like the Cougars to take care of business at home against Iona, which has a new coach and only one returning player, Osborn Shema. He was the Gaels' sixth-leading scorer last season. 

Iona's new coach is Tobin Anderson, who has had only one year of Division I coaching experience. It's going to take time for the Gaels to jell and get the right rotation with a roster nearly full of new players.

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years.

Are the 1-6 Panthers capable of that?

The buy sign is on after Carolina came out of its bye week with a 15-13 home win against the Texans. The Panthers were better offensively because they made a switch in play-callers going to Thomas Brown, who wasn't afraid to let Bryce Young throw on first down. The Panthers also made a smart move decreasing the role of Miles Sanders, who is one of the worst running backs in the league.

The Colts can't be road chalk because of their horrendous defense. They are giving up an NFL-worst 28.6 points per game. Indy ranks 28th in total defense. If anything, the Colts' defense is getting worse allowing an average of 38 points in their past three games. They just surrendered 38 points and 511 yards to a moribund Saints offense last week at home.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

If you're going to undergo a youth movement at the skill positions, you better have good coaching. The Packers lack leadership both on the field and on the sidelines. Their defense underperforms to their talent level and Matt LaFleur offers nothing innovative to help Jordan Love. It's obvious the Packers' success during LaFleur's previous three seasons was due to Aaron Rodgers carrying the team.

Having said all this, I don't believe the Packers lose to the Rams. Green Bay is mediocre at best, but it is not bottom-five. The Rams are a bottom-five unit with Brett Rypien at QB. Note, too, the Rams are going to be without their second-best defensive player as linebacker Ernest Jones is out with a knee injury.

This is the Packers' season and they have a lay-up opponent at home because of Matthew Stafford likely sitting out.

I don't trust the Packers to cover any margin. But I will throw a peanut on them on the money line asking them to just win the game.

The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. 

I didn't want to jump the gun on this one, but now that we know Deshaun Watson will be under center for Cleveland instead of P.J. Walker and the rookie Tune will be in the Lion's Den not mobile Kyler Murray, I'm going to lay the wood with Cleveland. 

This is a give-up game for the Cardinals. If it weren't, they would have held on to Joshua Dobbs, or started Murray. Tune is facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game and also ranks No. 1 in pass defense. He doesn't have a reliable running back either with James Conner a week away from returning. 

Watson was coming off his best game as a Brown on Sept. 24 against the Titans where he was 27-of-33 passing for 289 yards and two TD's. His QB rating was 123.4. However, he's thrown just five passes since then as the Browns have given him the baby treatment holding him out of games. But now Watson is ready.

He gets an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom-seven in scoring defense and defensive total yards. 

Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot.

LSU nipped the Crimson Tide, 32-31, in overtime at home last season. Now the Tide gets the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is 7-1 with a lone loss to Texas. Since that defeat, the Crimson Tide have rolled to six consecutive victories going 5-1 ATS.

The Crimson Tide rank in the top 17 in fewest points allowed and fewest yards given up per game. They are giving up just 15.1 points in their last six games.

LSU is the best offensive team in the country. Daniels is moving up on the Heisman Trophy list. But the Tigers are similar to USC, a great offense with a poor defense. LSU surrendered 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Mississippi. By comparison, Alabama held Mississippi to 10 points and Arkansas to 21 points.

The Tigers' defense is improving. However, Alabama's offense also has shown improvement. A key here is LSU injuries on defense. The Tigers will be without defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo and three of their best defensive backs.

The Canadiens are improved this season. They are 4-3 in their last seven games with two of those losses during this span occurring by one goal.

The Canadiens catch the Blues playing without rest after St. Louis upset the Devils, 4-1, last night. St. Louis is 0-6 when playing on zero rest.

The Blues are expected to go with backup Joel Hofer in net.

Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them.

This spells a letdown.

Iowa State is peaking. The Cyclones have won four of their past five games, including the past three. They've held their last three foes, TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor, to an average of 14 points a game.

There's also revenge motivation for Iowa State. The Jayhawks halted a seven-game losing streak to the Cyclones by beating them, 14-11, at home last season.

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare.

Rutgers is underrated and Ohio State is overrated. That's the way I see this point spread.

The Scarlet Knights have yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season. They rank in the top-10 in total defense and No. 2 overall in pass defense. Offensively, the Scarlet Knights have the Big Ten's second-leading rusher, Kyle Monangai, and an offensive line that has allowed just seven sacks, fewest in the Big Ten. Gavin Wimsatt is an improving quarterback.

Ohio State has a great record, but this isn't a great Ohio State team. Kyle McCord is not an elite QB like past Buckeye passers. Ohio State ranks 93rd in rushing and has only five takeaways.

The spot sets up well, too, for Rutgers. Ohio State is on the road a second straight week for the first time this season, while the Scarlet Knights were idle last week.

The Grizzlies are really missing suspended Ja Morant. They are the NBA's lone winless team at 0-5. Memphis is averaging 106.6 points and ranks second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies have prided themselves on defense. They just gave up 133 points to the Jazz in an embarrassing 24-point loss two days ago.

Now, with a real chance to win their first game, I see the Grizzlies really stressing defense against a short-handed, rebuilding Trail Blazers squad that has problems scoring, too. Portland ranks 29th in scoring at 103 points. The Trail Blazers are even more inaccurate from the floor than Memphis ranking last in field goal percentage.

The Trail Blazers are down their projected starting backcourt with Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, both out.

Portland has been playing solid defense the past two games holding the Raptors and Pistons to a combined average of 96 points.

Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over.

Rookie Will Levis threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his pro debut last week. While I don't expect Levis to repeat that a second straight week, he's a plus for the Over because of his strong arm. Injured Ryan Tannehill was the lowest rated starting QB in the league. Tannehill had just two TD passes all season. The threat of a downfield Titans passing attack makes Henry more dangerous because Pittsburgh's defense just can't key on him.

There is a big injury - and it's on the Steelers defense. Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a hamstring injury. That's another plus for the Over.

I expect Kenny Pickett to get the QB start for Pittsburgh. He has two strong wide receiving targets in George Pickins and Diontae Johnson. If Pickett can't go, I'm fine with Mitchell Trubisky behind center as this is not a huge total to go Over.

The 76ers are in action for the first time since trading James Harden. They also haven't played since Sunday. So the 76ers should have energy and motivation. The talent certainly is there.

Toronto is coming off a highly satisfying destruction of the Bucks, 130-111, at home last night. This marks the Raptors' fifth game in seven days. So the scheduling dynamics clearly favor Philadelphia.

The teams already have met in 76ers coach Nick Nurse's return to Toronto. The 76ers won, 114-107, as 5-point road favorites this past Saturday. Nurse certainly knows his former team.

I'm not counting the Diamondbacks out yet. Not with Zac Gallen pitching at home and Adolis Garcia out.

Nathan Eovaldi versus Gallen was the Game 1 pitching matchup. Neither pitcher made it to the sixth inning. The Diamondbacks led 5-3 until the Rangers tied in the ninth and won in extra innings.

Gallen didn't pitch that well, but Eovaldi was worse. That game was in Texas, too.

Now Gallen is back pitching at home where he was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA during the regular season.

Garcia being out with an oblique injury can't be underestimated either. He's the Rangers' top power hitter.

The Diamondbacks have proven resilient all season. I'm not ready to give up on them - at least not at this value price.

The Heat are not built for the early part of the season. This is when they historically struggle and it's happening again this season. If it weren't for a one-point victory against the lowly Pistons, the Heat would be 0-4.

The Nets are 3-0 ATS this season, underrated by the oddsmaker and beneath the radar because they no longer have any of their superstars. Cam Thomas, though, is an emerging star averaging 33 points.

This is Miami's first home game following three consecutive road matchups. So the spot isn't good. The Heat also are banged-up. Jimmy Butler is questionable and Bam Adebayo is dealing with a bruised hip.

I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. 

The Falcons have the better record because they are the superior team. Ball State has a terrible offense. The 2-6 Cardinals average a puny 16.1 points a game and rank 127th in total yards. They have used three quarterbacks, with none of them being any good. 

Ball State just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Central Michigan, 24-17, this past Saturday as a 5-point home 'dog. That was the Cardinals' first MAC win in four games and makes them a little fat and happy going on the road for this short turnaround game. 

Bowling Green ranks in the top-30 in defensive total yards and pass defense. The Falcons are opportunistic, ranking fifth in takeaways with 12. The Falcons don't have an outstanding QB either, but they have a stud running back in Terion Stewart. He averages 6.1 yards per carry and has gone over 100 yards rushing in four of his last five games.

The Falcons are 4-4 and 2-2 in the MAC. They have played a tough schedule. Their losses are to unbeaten Michigan, unbeaten Liberty and to Ohio and Miami of Ohio, two of the top teams in the MAC. Bowling Green owns an impressive 38-27 road victory against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have defeated a pair of top-20 teams in North Carolina and Miami. 

Ball State is a big drop in class for Bowling Green.

The Kings are in action. So think Over. There have been 7 or more goals scored in six of the Kings' eight games. The Kings have surrendered at least three goals in every game except one.

So it's no surprise the Over has cashed in seven of LA's eight games this season, including the past five.

The Kings lead the NHL in scoring at 4.4 goals per game. However, they rank 25th defensively. The Maple Leafs have been playing shorthanded on the blue line due to multiple injuries.

Toronto has scored four goals apiece in three of its last four games. The Maple Leafs rank 11th in scoring and fourth on the power play.

Expect both teams to come out skating at a fast tempo since each team last played this past Saturday.

The Cavaliers have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Knicks eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Knicks took advantage of Cleveland's outside shooting deficiencies and rebounding.

Aware of this, the Cavaliers addressed these concerns in the off-season by bringing in sharpshooting guard Max Strus and veteran Tristan Thompson to help Evan Mobley on the boards against Mitchell Robinson.

I'm surprised the Knicks are favored in this road game, their third away game in five days. Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable perhaps that's why. But Mitchell is expected to play.

The Knicks are not nearly in rhythm. The Cavaliers are home with motivation. Taking points is just a bonus.

Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start.

The Lions are a legitimate, good team. The Raiders aren't. I like the Lions to bounce back in a big way hosting their first nationally televised Monday night home game since 2018.

Detroit had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits, before losing to the Ravens.

Jared Goff plays much better at home inside a dome where cold and wind don't factor. The Lions remain without injured David Montgomery, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up against the Ravens amassing 126 total yards and showing why he was a first-round draft pick.

Detroit's defense is much improved, especially against the run. But the Lions have trouble against mobile QB's. Lamar Jackson really hurt them last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is anything but mobile. He's also turnover-prone. The Raiders entered this Week 8 committing the most turnovers in the NFL with 15. Garoppolo has eight interceptions in just five games.

Las Vegas averages just 16 points a game and entered this week last in rushing, which doesn't say much for the highly disappointing Josh Jacobs.

The Rangers are lucky to have the World Series even at 1-1 after pulling out an extra inning win. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Rangers, 14-7, and now are coming home for Game 3. Texas had a losing road record during the regular season.

Yet this Game 3 is being priced as a toss-up. It's time to start respecting the Diamondbacks. The Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies all discovered that the hard way. It's also time to realize that 39-year-old Max Scherzer is past his prime and not fully healthy.

Scherzer had a 9.45 ERA in two postseason starts against the Astros this month. He is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA in 29 lifetime playoff appearances. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying he's just looking for innings from Scherzer, rather than his one-time dominance, since the Rangers have a vulnerable bullpen.

I prefer Diamondbacks' rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who showed he could do the job under pressure when he shut out the Phillies on two hits with nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Pfaadt has pitched 16 2/3 innings in the playoffs. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Bruins are off to a great start at 7-0-1. They rank first defensively giving up the fewest goals per game. They also have the No. 1 penalty kill unit.

That alone would be enough to back the Bruins. But Boston has had this matchup circled ever since the Panthers pulled a major upset by knocking the Bruins out of the playoffs last season.

The Panthers match up well to Boston. But I want the Bruins going for me in this spot. 

This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year.

Chicago finished last in scoring defense and 29th in total defense in 2022. This season the Bears are giving up 28.9 points, which ranks 28th, and they are 29th in pass defense. Safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears' fourth-leading tackler, already has been ruled out and fellow safety Eddie Jackson is questionable with a foot injury. So Herbert is set up for success.

The Bears were able to slow down the Raiders at home last week because Las Vegas' QB's were Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. I don't see them doing well against Herbert.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent draws his second NFL start for Chicago. He showed accuracy - more than Justin Fields - and moxie in helping the Bears defeat the Raiders, 30-12, last week. The Bears should open their playbook more for him this week. It just might be that the Bears found a diamond in the rough.  

The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league. Their secondary, particularly Derwin James, seems more interested in head hunting than in playing smart football. The Chargers are second-to-last in defensive total yards and 25th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points per game.

The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that.

The Vikings are coming off a stunning upset home win against the 49ers this past Monday now. That was their second win in a row having beaten the Bears during the NFL debut of rookie QB Tyson Bagent two weeks ago.

Minnesota is weak defensively, lacks a good ground attack and its passing game is down several notches without Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are an average team at best. They come into Green Bay on a short week flush with short-term success. They'll find a desperate Packers team with their season and manhood hanging in the balance following three straight losses, two coming on the road to the Raiders and Broncos, whose combined record is 5-9.

The Packers are an average team like the Vikings, but this is a great spot for them. They haven't played at home in four weeks and they get their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, back from injury. Jordan Love desperately needs Jones especially against the blitz-happy Vikings.

Love isn't as good as he looked during the first three games. But he isn't as bad as he's looked during the last three games.

Kirk Cousins is more turnover-prone than Love. The Vikings have committed 14 turnovers, which is second-most in the NFL next to the Raiders.

Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals.

So I'm confident the Cowboys will produce their share of points hosting the Rams. Dallas is averaging a whooping 38 points per game in its last seven games at AT&T Stadium.

I expect Matthew Stafford to keep up given that he has a healthy Cooper Kupp along with rookie-of-the-year candidate Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in receptions with 58. The Rams aren't one-dimensional either. Their ground attack is averaging 157 yards rushing the past two weeks.

Micah Parsons is a dominant player, but Dallas defense is not dominant minus its best cornerback, Trevon Diggs, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The Cowboys surrendered 42 points to the 49ers just two weeks ago.

The Rams' field goal kicking can't get worse after they cut Brett Maher, who missed two field goals and an extra point against the Steelers last week.

The Kings figure to get the Golden Knights ''A'' game tonight and the situation isn't ideal for them.

Las Vegas suffered its first loss of the season blowing a 2-0 lead at home against the Blackhawks on a rare Friday afternoon game. That defeat stopped the Golden Knights' seven-game win streak to open the season.

The Kings were in Tempe, Ariz. last night where they quickly fell behind the Coyotes, 4-1. Much to their credit, the Kings rallied for an improbable, 5-4, victory scoring three goals in the final period.

That took a lot of effort and grit from the Kings, who had to fly back home in the wee hours of the morning. So Vegas will be the more rested team. The Golden Knights are the far superior defensive team and they will have had more rest. The Kings rank 25th defensively. The Golden Nuggets give up the second-fewest goals per game.

We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. 

I think Drake Maye is the best quarterback in college football. But his surrounding talent isn't that good. Neither is North Carolina's defense. Virginia is a very weak offensive team.

Georgia Tech thrives as an underdog. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS (82 percent) the last 11 times when getting points. Georgia Tech was a heavy underdog to North Carolina each of the last two years. The Yellow Jackets not only covered against the Tar Heels the past two seasons, but beat them straight-up! 

The Yellow Jackets already have scored upset victories against fellow ACC opponents, Miami and Wake Forest, this season. They certainly are capable of not only covering this double-digit spread, but winning straight-up. 

This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense.

The Bruins could have the best pass rush of any team, too, and Colorado has yielded 35 sacks. Laiatu Latu may be the premier pass rusher in the nation. He has 17 career sacks for the Bruins in 1 1/2 seasons. 

The total is so high because Colorado averages 34.4 points and has a terrible defense. That defense, though, has shown improvement versus the run and is better in the secondary when Travis Hunter plays. He's as good on defense as he is on offense, which is saying a lot.  

UCLA, though, isn't going to take a lot of chances with its quarterbacks. Freshman Dante Moore has been limited in practice due to an injury and Ethan Garbers isn't a gunslinger. Garbers is expected to get the start, which likely means a more conservative game plan from Chip Kelly. 

It's not asking too much for the Grizzlies to beat the Wizards. Memphis, after all, is the vastly superior team. The Grizzlies were 20 games above .500 last season. Washington finished eight games below .500.

The Grizzlies are anxious for a win being 0-2. They played well in a 108-104 loss to the world champion Nuggets last night. Memphis would have beaten most teams with its performance, including the Wizards.

The oddsmaker is overrating the situation and Memphis being without suspended Ja Morant.

The Wizards haven't played since Wednesday while the Grizzlies will be in action without rest. It's so early in the season that there isn't a fatigue factor for Memphis. The Grizzlies are stepping way down in class. The Wizards played no defense in their opener, a 143-120 loss to the Pacers.

Washington gave up 32 fast-break points to Indiana. Memphis had 22 fast-break baskets against Denver. The Wizards are in transition without Bradley Beal, who has been their leading-scorer and go-to-guy since the 2017-18 season. Beal is with the Suns now. The Wizards haven't found a rhythm without Beal. They are experimenting with their rotation. I don't see the Wizards getting this turned around against the Grizzlies.

As for Morant's absence, the Grizzlies have a capable point guard in Marcus Smart. He's a better defensive guard than anybody the Wizards have.

A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. 
The 3-4 Broncos are giving up 30.9 points a game and rank 116th in defensive total yards. 

Wyoming is well-coached under Craig Bohls, can run the ball and has good special teams. The Cowboys are 5-2 SU and ATS. They defeated Texas Tech and Fresno State straight-up as underdogs. The Bulldogs also covered against Air Force and seventh-ranked Texas.

The Cowboys have covered the past four times in this series. 

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving.

The Mavericks had a losing record last season after acquiring the disgruntled Irving from the Nets. Dallas finished last season losing 18 of its last 25 games. The Mavericks haven't been good in the favorite's role either, 4-10 ATS the past 14 times as chalk.

The Nets enter this matchup after blowing a six-point lead to the Cavaliers with 84 seconds left in their opener. Brooklyn doesn't have the superstars anymore, but it has underrated scorers. Ben Simmons finally is healthy, too.

If the Nets need extra motivation, they have it up against Irving for the first time since he left Brooklyn.

This has been a close series with the past five games all being decided by four points or less.

The Rangers have a top-three offense. They have not gone Under the total during their last six games. Zac Gallen was bad on the road and has proven disappointing lately in the postseason. 

So I like this total to go Over. 

Gallen has allowed nine earned runs on five homers in his last two innings spanning 11 innings. The Rangers hit the third-most homers in the majors. Gallen also hasn't been good on the road this season with a 7-7 record and 4.49 ERA in 21 away starts. 

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well in the postseason with a 4-0 record and 2.42 ERA. But he's been known throughout his career to throw an occasional clunker. This is his first World Series start. The Rangers' bullpen is untrustworthy. 

The Diamondbacks had a lot of timely hits in taking out the Phillies in the NCLS. They have produced at least four runs in eight of their 12 postseason games.

There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up.

It's the wrong move.

Two bad offenses against two mediocre defenses spell Under here especially given the style of play Charlotte employs.

The 49ers are averaging 8.2 points in their last four games. They are the second-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 14.6 points per game on the season. Their offense has produced 11 TD's in seven games.

Charlotte's QB's have a 4-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's why the 49ers run the ball more than 60 percent of the time even though they rank 87th in rushing. They play slow, too, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo.

Florida Atlantic's defense is nothing special. But neither have been the other defenses the 49ers have struggled against.

The 49ers are better on defense. Florida Atlantic is on its second QB after losing Casey Thompson to injury. Daniel Richardson has thrown more interceptions than TD passes. The Owls rank 103rd in rushing yards and 95th in total yards.

If you discount a 56-point explosion against South Florida and its bottom-10 defense, the Owls would be averaging 14.2 points in their last five games.

The Rangers were outstanding on the road last season going 24-9-8 and they've started off well this season winning three of four away contests. I like the Rangers to keep hot on the road against the struggling Oilers.

New York stays in the same time zone after defeating Calgary, 3-1, on Tuesday. That was the Rangers' first win at the Saddledome in six years. Now they get the 1-4-1 Oilers, who aren't likely to have Connor McDavid. He suffered an upper-body injury in the Oilers' 3-2 overtime loss to the Jets this past Saturday.

McDavid missed the Oilers' last game. That was a 7-4 road loss to the Wild. The Oilers looked clueless without their superstar. Three times the Oilers were whistled for having too many men on the ice. Edmonton might have allowed even more than seven goals if it weren't for goalie Jack Campbell making several spectacular saves.

Edmonton ranks second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 4.5 goals per game.

The Oilers have a bigger game on deck when they play against rival Calgary in the Heritage Classic outdoors at Commonwealth Stadium on Sunday night. The Oilers are hoping McDavid will be ready for that game. So it's highly unlikely they would rush him into the lineup against the Rangers.

The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with two games. Both went Under. I see this game going Under, too, as teams make the transition from preseason to regular-season intensity.

The Trail Blazers no longer have superstar marksman Damian Lillard. Their front line has gotten better defensively with the additions of Deandre Ayton and defensive ace Robert Williams III. Their backcourt also should be improved defensively with Malcolm Brogdon coming on board.

The Clippers have a healthy Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, at least for now. They are superstars - on both ends of the court because they also are excellent defenders. Bricklayer Russell Westbrook also is in the starting lineup along with center Ivica Zubac, who has the shooting range of about two feet, and streak shooter Terance Mann.

So I find this total to be too high.

I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The Knicks had their best season in a decade last season, but still are several rungs below the Celtics and did nothing to improve themselves in the off-season.

The perception here is the Rockets are a bottom-feeder and the Magic are an up-and-coming team.

Truth be told, the Rockets are nothing like last season. They have fortified themselves with a veteran lineup getting point guard Fred VanVleet and improving their defense acquiring Dillon Brooks. They also have upgraded their coaching bringing in Ime Udoka.

The Magic haven't made the playoffs the past three seasons.

I consider the Rockets to be the better team so getting points with them is a bonus.

It's not a huge surprise the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights are off to a 6-0 start. It is a surprise, though, to find the Flyers leading the Metro Division with a 3-1-1 record.

The Golden Knights won't be taking the Flyers lightly now, especially after the Flyers scored a pair of short-handed goals in their last game.

Las Vegas is the fourth-toughest team to score against with a 1.8 goals against average. The Golden Knights last played on Saturday. The Under is 6-1 the past seven times the Golden Knights have played on two days rest.

The Flyers also last played on Saturday when they suffered a 5-4 overtime defeat to the Stars. Prior to that game, though, the Flyers had surrendered just one goal in their last two games.

The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. 

After the Nuggets swept the Lakers, Denver coach Michael Malone said, "If anybody is still about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them. They've gone fishing. We're still playing.''

That flippant remark didn't sit well with the Lakers, especially LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

Now the long wait is over for the Lakers. They get a rematch with the Nuggets on opening night. The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their rings among the many pre-game festivities - and distractions for them. 

The Lakers certainly should be the more motivated and focused team. They also have a healthy James and Davis and a deeper bench than the Nuggets, who lost key reserve Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.

The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game.

The 49ers don't need Christian McCaffrey to beat the Vikings.

San Francisco is in a huge bounce-back spot after getting upset by the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. That game was played in windy conditions, which bothered Brock Purdy. This game is being played in a dome and Purdy is stepping down in defensive class going from the No. 1 defense to a below average one that will be minus one of its best interior players with Marcus Davenport out.

The 49ers were averaging 33.4 points looking like the best team in the NFL before running into the Browns. Even with that loss, San Francisco has covered 13 of its last 17 games.

The Vikings are going to struggle to dent a 49ers defense that gives up the fewest points per game, ranks No. 3 in fewest yards allowed and has 11 takeaways. San Francisco has the best turnover ratio in the league at plus 8, while the Vikings are minus 7 in takeaways/giveaways.

After sweeping the Rangers three games in Texas, the Astros return to Houston for this Game 6. That's bad news for the Astros.

The Astros were 39-42 at home during the regular season and are 1-3 at Minute Maid Park in the postseason.

I don't see ineffective Framber Valdez turning that around. Valdez had a 4.66 ERA after the All-Star break. He's been terrible in the playoffs giving up nine earned runs in two starts. He has a 7.30 ERA in his last seven home starts.

On the flip side is Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. He's been excellent in the postseason with a 3-0 record and 2.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke. He's 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 playoff appearances, including nine starts.

Taking the Rangers at a plus price is a no-brainer.

The Red Wings are the home team. But it's Calgary that has been practicing at Detroit's home facility. While the Flames were in Detroit on Saturday, the Red Wings were pulling off an impressive upset against the Senators in Ottawa on Saturday.

Detroit doesn't have a good record when playing without rest. The Red Wings have lost 69 percent of the past 62 times in that situation.

The Flames have defeated the Red Wings in nine of the last 12 meetings. This is the final game of their five game road trip that has been disappointing so far at 1-3.

The Red Wings are expected to start backup James Reimer in net.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell.

Despite the presence of T.J. Watt, the Steelers' defense is down from previous seasons. They rank 30th in defensive total yards.

Kyren Williams is out for the Rams. That's going to cripple their ground attack. But I see Stafford passing more because of that. Sean McVay probably will decide on the best pass blocking running back to replace Williams.

The Steelers should come out throwing, too, following their bye. Kenny Pickett is close, or at, 100 percent. He gets back tight end security blanket and prime red zone target tight end Pat Friermuth and probably Diontae Johnson, too. That would give Pickett three strong receiving targets factoring in talented George Pickens.

I don't find the Rams defense very good. It's Aaron Donald and 10 other bodies.

Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers.

That's the situation here with Detroit traveling to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that gives up 15.2 points per game and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in defensive total yards and pass defense.

The Ravens have held their last three opponents to an average of 12 points a game.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much worse in outdoor settings especially when weather is a factor. The forecast is for strong wind in the 15-20 mph range. Goff won't have his top running back either with David Montgomery out. The Lions hope to get Jahmyr Gibbs back, but he's been a disappointment and is not a heavy duty back like Montgomery.

The Lions' defense has improved so much that it can be trusted to hold up their end.

Detroit has the No. 1 run defense in the league. The Lions rank seventh in defensive total yards and ninth in scoring defense giving up 18.8 points a game. The Ravens are without their best running back, J.K. Dobbins, and their passing attack has been hurt by repeated dropped passes from their mediocre wide receiving group.

I'm not sold on the Lions playing their second consecutive road game on grass. The Ravens' defense is extremely intimidating at home. The Ravens surrender the second-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points per game.

The Lions need a balanced attack. They aren't going to have that with David Montgomery out. He's been their best runner by far. Jared Goff has a history of not playing well in outdoor games when the weather conditions are not good. Heavy wind is being forecast for this game.

Detroit's defense is much improved. However, it's not as good as its numbers. The Lions' last three opponents have been the Buccaneers, Panthers and Packers. All three of those teams rank in the bottom-10 in yards gained.

The Ravens' offensive line finally has gotten healthy. The Lions have trouble with mobile QB's and Lamar Jackson is the most dangerous running QB in the NFL with Justin Fields out.

Early revenge spot here for Buffalo. The Islanders scored a goal with fewer than seven minutes left to nip the Sabres, 3-2, at home last Saturday.

The Sabres have been home since that game. The Islanders emptied the tank trying to beat the Devils at home last night, but fell, 5-4, in overtime. The Islanders have been missing defenseman Scott Mayfield.

This is the Islanders' first road game and first game without rest. The Islanders gave up nearly a goal more on the road than at home last season. New York also has lost its last five road games to the Sabres.

This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. 

But that's not just why I like Minnesota so much. 

Iowa is the most bogus Top-25 team in the nation. The Hawkeyes somehow are 6-1 despite being outgained by an average of 50 yards per game! The Hawkeyes have only outgained one of their opponents and that was 2-5 Western Michigan, a bad MAC team. 

Yes, Iowa has a great defense as it usually has. But the Hawkeyes have no offense. They've lost their starting QB, Cade McNamara, and now tight end Erick All, one of their best players, also is done for the season. 

Minnesota doesn't have a QB edge too often, but they do here with strong-armed Athan Kaliakmanis against Deacon Hill, who might be the worst starting QB in the country. Hill was 6-for-14 for 37 yards against Wisconsin last week. His average attempted pass was for just 2.2 yards. The Hawkeyes still managed to beat the Badgers, whose quarterback Tanner Mordecai, was injured in the game. 

Minnesota is well rested having had a bye last week. The 3-3 Gophers are a mediocre Big Ten team. They can't step up against the conference's Big Three of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But they are capable of beating any other Big Ten team, including the much-overrated Hawkeyes.

If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. 

I see West Virginia bouncing back at home against an Oklahoma State team that I don't find very good. 

The Mountaineers are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. They've played their past two games on the road. 

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has been home in its last two games, victories against Kansas State and Kansas. Before those games, the Cowboys had dropped a road game to Iowa State and lost at home to South Alabama, 33-7, as a 7-point favorite.

A plus for West Virginia in the loss to Houston was the play of QB Garrett Greene, who threw for 391 yards and two TD's. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman has limited mobility and just a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here.

Navy is familiar with Air Force's option ground attack. The Midshipmen have a similar style so they practice against that. Navy ranks fifth in the nation in rushing.

The team's met last season. Navy was a 14-point road 'dog and only lost, 13-10.

Navy has played the tougher schedule and is only giving up 23 points a game.

The clock is constantly going to be moving, especially given the new rules, which is great when backing a double-digit underdog. 

Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. 

UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. 

The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. 

Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though.

This is going to be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies had smacked 19 homers in their previous eight playoff games this season before last night. I see them getting back on track. Philadelphia is averaging 5.6 runs during its last 10 games.

Lefty Cristopher Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies. He had a solid 3.44 ERA in 19 appearances this season, including 18 starts. The Diamondbacks have below average numbers against southpaws in several major categories, including slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

The momentum has shifted in this series with the Astros dealing the Rangers their first loss of the playoffs. I'm going to ride the Astros here as the underdog. 

Houston is 17-3 in its last 20 road games. The Astros especially like playing in Arlington. The Astros are 7-1 this year there against Texas, averaging 8.9 runs in those games.

This is an action play for me, but I do favor Houston, too, in a pitching matchup of Jose Urquidy versus lefty Andrew Heaney. Urquidy has a 1.74 ERA in his last three appearances. He has a 5-0 career mark versus the Rangers with a 2.82 ERA in seven starts. 

The Astros have very good numbers against lefthanded pitching, including No. 2 in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS and fifth in batting average.

The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros.

The last time the Astros were in Arlington was early last month and they went 3-0 against Texas scoring 13, 14 and 12 runs smacking 16 homers.

The Astros have their playoff stud, Christian Javier, on the mound. He has yet to give up a run in three postseason starts during his career spanning 16 1/3 innings.

Opposing Javier is Max Scherzer. Now Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, but this isn't an ideal spot for him. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 12 after sustaining a muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. The Rangers are hoping to get around 70 pitches from Scherzer.

The Astros torched Scherzer for seven runs in three innings when they buried Texas, 12-3, on Sept. 6.

The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener.

No letup now from the Phillies. They are strong favorites for this Game 2 home game and I see them coming through in a pitching matchup of Merrill Kelly versus Aaron Nola.

Kelly had a 2.59 home ERA, but his road ERA during the regular season was 4.07. He's also been giving up too many walks - 18 in his last six starts. The Phillies, with their top-10 offense, can take advantage. They are averaging 5.6 runs in their last eight games.

Nola was a solid 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA when pitching at Citizens Bank Park.

The 0-2 Sabres are due to get their first win. The situation sets up for them here drawing the struggling Lightning, who still could be missing team captain Steve Stamkos.

Tampa Bay is playing its third road game in four days. The Sabres have been idle since Saturday.

The Lightning are struggling in net without Andrei Vasilevskiy allowing 4.67 goals per game. Tampa Bay's defense hasn't helped its inexperienced goalies, Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins. The Lightning have given up the most shots on goal and third-most high-danger scoring chances.

The Lightning are off consecutive road defeats to the Red Wings and Senators. The Sabres are better than those two teams.

Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play.

Western Kentucky is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road to Ohio State and Troy, perhaps the best team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Hilltoppers rank 45th in scoring at 32.2 points per game. They have a solid QB in Austin Reed.

Jacksonville State has a worse offense despite playing a much easier schedule. The Gamecocks' 5-2 record is deceiving because those wins have come against UTEP, East Tennessee State, Sam Houston State, Eastern Michigan and Middle Tennessee. Twice Jacksonville State has faced tough competition. Both times the Gamecocks lost and failed to cover, losing at home to Liberty, 31-13, and to Coastal Carolina on the road, 30-16.

The Gamecocks have a weak passing game and their two QB's, Logan Smothers and Zion Webb, are questionable.

The marketplace is enamored with the pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Zach Wheeler in this opening game of the National League Championship Series. The total is being bet down.

I don't see it that way. I see at least eight runs being scored.

The Diamondbacks are averaging six runs per game during their five postseason games. They've faced good pitching, too, drawing Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Clayton Kershaw during this span. Arizona has scored four or more runs in each playoff game.

Arizona has displayed a good combination of power and speed. The Diamondbacks finished second in stolen bases during the season.
The Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs in their last seven games. It's a good sign for them that Trea Turner has gotten hot. The Phillies are a top-eight offensive team.

As for the starting pitchers, Gallen has pitched much worse on the road this season with a 4.42 ERA compared to a 2.47 home ERA. Wheeler has a 4.13 home ERA compared to a 3.16 road ERA.

Citizens Bank Park is a noted hitter's park and there are no weather issues.

Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen.

The Under has cashed in 14 of the Saints' last 15 games, including all five games this season. The Saints have played 11 consecutive games where the combined score was below 40 points.

What clinches this Under play, though, is how improved the Texans' defense is under their new coach, defensive-minded DeMeco Ryans. Houston has held its last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points. New Orleans had managed only four offensive TD's during its first four games until blasting the punchless Patriots, 34-0, at home last week.

Derek Carr is mediocre. The Saints should have known this before signing him. He doesn't elevate his surrounding talent.

The Texans are going against a top-five defense shorthanded as usual with multiple injuries in their offensive line and the possibility of being down wide receivers, Robert Woods and Tank Dell, their second-biggest threat. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball ranking 27th in rushing. That inability could really hurt them against this caliber of defense.

Maybe the Commanders get things turned around - although I have no confidence in Ron Rivera - but until there is evidence of that, they remain a team to fade. Washington has lost three in a row with the latest being, 40-20, to the previously winless Bears at home.

The Falcons not only are the better team, but they are home. It's Washington's first dome game of the season.

Atlanta is a top-12 rushing team with an emerging superstar running back in Bijan Robinson. The Commanders can't match that. They also can't protect Sam Howell. He's on pace to be sacked 99 times!

The Falcons' defense is much improved from last season ranking in the top-10, while the Commanders' defense has greatly regressed to the point of allowing 31 points a game, second-worst in the NFL.

Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that.

So I envision a strong offensive performance from Jackson and the Ravens against a Tennessee defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense and was just gashed for 193 yards rushing by the Colts last Sunday. The Titans have just three takeaways, too, which ranks 30th. 

On the flip side, I see the Titans scoring their share of points. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins remain productive. Tennessee's offensive line has been getting better.

The Ravens' defense has good numbers. But I'm not sold on them, especially outside of Baltimore where they are less intimidating. 

Baltimore has been extremely lucky in the offenses they have drawn - C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut on the road behind a makeshift offensive line opening week, a one-legged Joe Burrow in Week 2, backup Gardner Minshew in Week 3, overmatched rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with no Nick Chubb in Week 4 and the poorly designed Steelers offense with a banged-up Kenny Pickett last week.