Kudos to Gardner-Webb for scoring 91 points in its last game, a 91-64 victory against Presbyterian from this past Friday. But I'm not going to overreact to that performance as prior to that Gardnder-Webb averaged just 61 points during its previous three games. Now Gardner-Webb draws South Carolina Upstate. The Spartans are bad on defense. But they also are horrible on offense averaging fewer than 67 points a game. They have failed to break the 69-point barrier in eight of their last 10 games. The Under has cashed in seven of the Spartans' last 10 games.

These two Metro Atlantic Athletic foes just met Sunday and Quinnipiac won, 78-63. That total was lined at 129 1/2. Now we have a higher total, but the same two teams.  Quinnipiac shot 57 percent from the floor in Sunday's game. That was a fluke for the Bobcats. Even with that performance factored in, they still rank 289th in scoring at 66.8 points a game and 293rd in field goal percentage at 41.3 percent.  Fairfield is even worse. The Stags rank 341st in scoring at 60.4 points and are 330th in field goal percentage at 39.3 percent. Their game yesterday was their first since Jan. 16 because of COVID issues. The Stags figure to struggle again offensively not just because of rust, but also because Quinnipiac ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. 

The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. 

 Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points.  Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee.  This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game.  Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games.  Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles.  I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy.  The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6.  Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years.  Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book.  Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties  Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties.  Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent.  The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season.  The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo.  You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all.  Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate.   Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me.  Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones.  Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1.  I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago. 

Temple averages less than 64 points. That average shrinks to 62.7 if you take the Owls' last four games. The Owls barely manage to average 60 points when on the road. Wichita State is a solid defensive team giving up 69 points per game. The Shockers have held their past six home opponents to 64 points per game.  The Shockers should maintain their defensive intensity throughout the game even if the score becomes lopsided after Tulane came back from 21 points down to cut the Shockers' lead to six points during the final minute in Wichita State's last game, a 75-67 victory this past Wednesday.  Temple's strength is its defense. The Owls have held five of their last six foes to fewer than 69 points a game. That's in line with their season average of holding opponents to 68.5 points per game. 

The Oilers are playing much better than the Flames right now. Edmonton also is in the better situational spot having not played since Tuesday while Calgary is in action for the fourth time in six days. This also is the Flames' first home game since Jan. 26.  This is an intense rivalry. Calgary, though, loses much of its home ice advantage because no fans are allowed in the stands. Edmonton is up to .500 having won three in a row. The Oilers have looked much better on their special teams.  Calgary is below .500 on the season. The Flames haven't scored more than two goals in four of their last five games. 

The Ducks probably should have defeated the Sharks on Friday night. They blew a 3-1 lead and lost in a shootout. Anaheim outshot San Jose, 37-30.  I don't see the Ducks losing a second straight home game at Honda Center to San Jose in this second of consecutive games.  The problem with backing the Ducks is their lack of offense They rank last in the NHL in scoring. However, the Ducks have scored a season-best seven goals during their last two games. They also are facing a porous Sharks defense that ranks second-to-last in the league giving up 3.9 goals per game.  The Sharks haven't been good enough offensively to overcome their defensive problems ranking 27th in scoring. Anaheim ranks eighth defensively and has the sixth-best penalty killing unit. The Sharks have scored just one power play goal in 26 chances during their past six games. 

It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs.  Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game.  But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14.   Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.  After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams.
  

Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him.  The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite.
 

This total isn't high enough even if both teams weren't missing their top low-post scorers.  San Antonio is averaging 110.8 pts in its last five games. The Spurs are a better defensive team than offensive team. They also are without LaMarcus Aldridge. That means big minutes for Jakob Proeltl, an Under bettor's delight - a shot-blocker with a limited offensive game and a terrible free throw shooter.  The Rockets have become a defensive team-first under Stephen Silas. Houston ranks in the top-six in many of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Houston has surrendered just 103 points per game during its last eight games. The Rockets are without their leading scorer, Christian Wood. Not only was Wood averaging 22 points, but he was shooting 55.8 percent from the field.  The team's met twice in mid-January. Both games went Under with a combined scoring total of 214 and 194 in those games.  

Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe.  The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten. 

UT-Chattanooga has stepped up defensively holding their last three foes to a respectable 68.3 points a game.  East Tennessee State has a top-70 defense allowing fewer than 66 points per game. The Mocs haven't played too many defenses of this caliber. The Buccaneers' offensive numbers are inflated because of a recent 112-84 blowout victory against The Citadel.  This is a Southern League matchup so the oddsmaker isn't doing a deep dive into this game. He's just set a total based on season statistics. In this case, the number is set too high. 

Arizona is not a good road team. But the Coyotes edged the Blues, 4-3, on Thursday. It was their first away victory of the season. I don't see the Coyotes making it two in a row and I'm willing to lay a higher price than normal to back St. Louis in this spot.  The Blues had won four consecutive games until falling to the Coyotes. Arizona built a 3-0 lead and held on to win, 4-3. The Blues did not play a good game yet almost pulled out the victory.  Following the game, Blues coach Craig Berube ripped his team. So I don't anticipate St. Louis to be flat again in this spot. The Blues have been the only NHL American-based team not to have a player go on the COVID protocol list.  Even with that victory, Arizona is just 5-21 in its last 26 road contests. 

Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game.  Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games. 

North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC.  The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation.  The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes.  NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday. 

The Sharks have played a tough schedule: Eight games all on the road. While the Sharks lost two games to the Avalanche, no shame in that given Colorado was at full strength then and San Jose carried a fatigue rating while playing back-to-back games in high altitude, they managed splits against the Coyotes, Blues and Wild.  Due to COVID-19 issues, the Sharks haven't played during the last eight days. That was a needed break. So I'm expecting a strong effort from San Jose. The Sharks have won seven of the past nine times versus the Ducks in Anaheim. The Ducks are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They have the worst offense in the NHL. Anaheim has managed just eight goals in its last five games.

This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower.  Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge.  Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor.  New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games.  The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
 

There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7.  Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State. 
 

This is a battle of the two best teams in the Summit League. These teams win with offense.  South Dakota ranks 114th in scoring at nearly 75 points a game. The Coyotes rank 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and are an excellent free throw shooting team.  South Dakota State averages 80.5 points per game. The Jackrabbits rank third in 3-point percentage and are 22nd in field goal percentage. They, too, are good at the free throw line. So look for offense - not defense - in this matchup. That was the case back on Dec. 12 when the teams met at a neutral site. South Dakota won, 91-78, for a combined 169 points. South Dakota State was missing its second-leading scorer, Doug Wilson, for that game. Wilson averages 15.8 points.  South Dakota is averaging 90.6 points in its last three games, all of which have gone Over.  The Jackrabbits are averaging 89 points in their last five games. The Over has cashed in seven of their last eight lined games. 

Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip.  This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days.  The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog.  Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury.  The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that. 

I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength.  Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago.  The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation.   The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic.  Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored. 

As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals.  This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers.  The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107. 

This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings.  I see that trend continuing here.  Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.

Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th.  The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points. 

Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday.  Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71. 

Florida is playing well. Nashville has yet to show anything on the road. So I'm going to ride the Panthers at a fair line value price.  The Panthers are 5-0-1. All but one of their victories has been by one goal. So they've been fortunate. But they've also produced good numbers such as ranking seventh in scoring, seventh in defense and fourth in power play efficiency.  Florida is the lone team left that has not lost in regulation. The Panthers also have been idle for the past three days.  Nashville is 0-4 on the road. The Predators, in contrast to the Panthers, have bad numbers: 28th in scoring, 24th in scoring defense, 28th in power play efficiency and last in penalty kill efficiency. 
 

Montreal is tied for the most points in the NHL. Ottawa is the worst team in the NHL right now.  But can the Canadiens beat the Senators by more than one goal? I'd be surprised if they didn't.  The Canadiens are 7-2 in their last nine games. All of their victories during this nine-game span have been by multiple goals. They lead the NHL in scoring at 4.4 goals per game. The Senators have lost by multiple goals in each of their last seven games. This is their finale of a hellish seven-game road trip. it's their fifth game in nine days. So the Senators may not have anything left in the tank physically and mentally.  Montreal has dominated Ottawa, too, going 12-1-2 versus the Senators dating back to the 2016-17 season.

Until losing to the Stars, 6-3, this past Tuesday, the Blue Jackets had beaten Dallas eight straight times. Dallas had dropped five in a row in Columbus until achieving that win. That game marked Patrik Laine's much-anticipated Columbus debut - and it was a flop. The Blue Jackets stunk and Laine had trouble adjusting to his new team and was rusty having not played since Jan. 14.  Laine should have his legs under him and be more comfortable this time around. The Blue Jackets have revenge and history going for them.  The Stars have been playing well, but I don't see them keeping this pace up especially 36-year-old Joe Pavelski. He's fifth in the NHL in points. He's averaging two points a game. The only other person at that elite level is Connor McDavid.

I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games.  Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate.  Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog. 

It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more.  Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season.  St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record.  The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty. 

These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games.  Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice. 

I have to believe Gregg Popovich is going to have the Spurs ultra competitive in this spot after San Antonio lost two straight to the Grizzlies, both at home. The Spurs' 133-102 loss to Memphis this past Monday was their most lopsided of the season.  Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Timberwolves' lone victories during this span were against the short-handed Cavaliers and Pelicans. Minnesota has lost eight consecutive road games.  Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past nine games. The Timberwolves rarely have been competitive without him. Minnesota has lost by 12 or more points during four of its last five defeats.  The Spurs aren't going to have LeMarcus Aldridge. I'm fine with that. Aldridge isn't the All-Star of past seasons. The absence of Aldridge is more than offset with the Timberwolves again being without Towns and guard Jarret Culver, a key member of their rotation.  The Timberwolves are in action for the fourth time in six days. San Antonio won't play again until Saturday against the Rockets in Houston. Another reason the Spurs shouldn't be holding anything back.  Before losing two in a row to the Grizzlies, the Spurs had defeated the Celtics and Nuggets in their previous home games. So the Spurs are capable of dispatching the Timberwolves by double-digits. 
  

The combination of Mercer's high scoring and 6-foot-11 Maciej Bender's low-post defensive presence and shot blocking ability should provide Mercer with a comfortable victory.  The Bears average 78 points per game, which is eight more points per contest than East Tennessee State averages. Mercer has balanced scoring led by Ross Cummings, who is one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the country. Cummings, who averages 15.7 points, shoots 51.5 percent from the floor and has made 44.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.  

Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. 

 UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell.  The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times.  So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points. 

The Ducks average 1.6 goals. That's last in the NHL. They are off two home games versus the Blues where they were outscored, 10-2.  Oh, yes, this also is the Ducks' fourth game in six days.  By contrast, the Kings are well rested. They last played on Thursday. The Kings are 3-2 in their last five games with victories against the Blues, Avalanche and Wild during this span. The Kings are the better team, home and in the better spot. So this short price is worth laying. 

Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders.  Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season.  A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups. 

The Wizards are coming off their biggest win of the season beating the Nets, 149-146, on Sunday after trailing by 18 points. The Wizards aren't used to winning. They are 4-12.  It's a rare letdown spot for the Wizards. Washington has been favored four times. The Wizards have lost three of those times straight-up.  Portland is off its worst loss of the season, 134-106, to the host Bucks on Monday. The timing was bad for the Trail Blazers. They caught the Bucks returning home off consecutive road losses to the Pelicans and Hornets.  Now the timing is bad for Washington, which has the worst defense in the NBA.  The Trail Blazers have covered six of their nine away contests this season. They also have defeated the Wizards during each of the last three meetings. 
   

The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games -  but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points.  Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game.  Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers. 

These teams are similar. Buffalo is 6-6. Ball State is 6-8. Buffalo has the better offense. Ball State is stronger defensively.  The teams met back on Jan. 9 and Buffalo defeated the Cardinals, 86-59, as 5-point home favorites. Now the Bulls are nearly that high of a favorite on the road. I'm not buying it. Not only does Ball State have revenge motivation, but also is coming off its worst loss of the season, an embarrassing, 74-42, loss to Akron from Saturday. The Bulls haven't been playing well either losing three of their last four. Ball State has covered 11 of its last 15 home contests. The Cardinals also are 10-1 ATS when hosting a foe with a losing road record, which Buffalo has.
 

James Harden is gone. Mike D'Antoni isn't the coach. The Rockets have a new identity these days. Their offense is a work-in-progress and their coach, Stephen Silas, stresses defense first. Quite a difference from who they used to be. 

 Houston hasn't reached 108 points in four of its last six games. However, the Rockets' defense has stepped way up giving up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NBA if computed for the entire season.  Oklahoma City also is dealing with a new identity. The Thunder have scored 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games.  So why do we have a total this large? The oddsmaker didn't miss the Thunder's last game. That was a 147-125 home loss to the Nets this past Friday. The Nets, though, lead the NBA in scoring at 122 points a game while ranking 27th defensively. Aside from being Harden's last team, the Nets have nothing in common with the Rockets.  The Rockets should be able to clamp down on the Thunder, who have been missing injured veteran point guard George Hill. Oklahoma City ranks 25th in scoring.  The Thunder should have great motivation to clamp down on the Rockets following their worst defensive game of the season. They've had three days to rest and prepare. 
   

Despite being short-handed due to injuries and COVID-19 issues, the Capitals have managed to go 6-3. The Capitals' first eight games were two against the Penguins early in the season when Pittsburgh was struggling, four games against the Sabres, who have a losing record, and two games against the 3-6 Islanders. 

 Finally the Capitals stepped up in class this past Saturday. They nipped the Bruins, 4-3, in overtime.  I don't see the Capitals doing it again in this Boston revenge spot. The Bruins scored three of the last four goals. They outshot Washington, 43-23. It was clear to me the Bruins were the better team.  Alex Ovehckin did return after missing four games due to COVID-19 protocols. But the Bruins also got back their superstar, David Pastrnak. He played more than 20 minutes, while Ovechkin was limited to fewer than 15 minutes of ice time.  The Capitals still could remain short-handed. Justin Schultz, Lars Eller, Evgeny Kuznetsov and starting goalie Ilya Samsonov are all day-to-day.  Washington has lost 12 of the last 16 times following a victory. The Capitals are in action for the fifth time in nine days. All but one of their last seven games have been decided by one goal. So there has been a physical and mental toll on the Capitals. The Bruins are an elite team that should take advantage especially given the situation. 
   

These have been the two best teams in the Southern Conference. That's likely the case again this season. East Tennessee State leads the conference with a 6-1 mark. Wofford is tied for second at 7-2.  Both the Buccaneers and Terriers have been playing well. But it's not too much to ask Wofford to win at home. The Terriers have been dominant at home the past three seasons at Richardson Indoor Stadium going 31-7, including winning six of seven home contests this season.  The Terriers average nearly five points more per game than East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers' offense has been up-and-down. Only twice in their last six games have the Buccaneers scored more than 71 points. Wofford has produced 72 or more points in seven of its last nine games.

Nevada beat UNLV in both meetings last season and the Wolfpack should defeat UNLV at home. This has always been a huge rivalry that the Wolfpack traditionally take more seriously than UNLV. Nevada is 6-2-1 ATS during the past nine meetings against UNLV. The Wolfpack have won three of its four Mountain West Conference home games this season, while UNLV has yet to win a conference road game. The Rebels last were on the road Jan. 9.  Both teams are strong defensively, but I trust the Wolfpack's offense and 3-point shooting more. The Rebels still haven't found a consistent ballhandler having lost point guard Marvin Coleman for the season.  In addition, the Rebels' leading scorer, Bryce Hamilton, has been hampered by an ankle injury. He averaged just eight points in the Rebels' last two games after averaging more than 20 points a game entering those last two contests. There's a chance Hamilton may even sit out against the Wolfpack. 

The Blues are riding high on their 2-0 road trip beating the Golden Knights in overtime this past Tuesday and then burying the Ducks, 6-1, scoring three goals within the first 2:06 of the game.  Following this game, the Blues go home for four games against the Coyotes and Avalanche. Those are much tougher opponents than the Ducks. So it's a clear letdown and lookahead spot for St. Louis. It sets up an ambush situation for the home Ducks. I expect John Gibson to rebound from his worst game ever. Gibson had been playing great up until that contest. He didn't get a lot of help from his defense in that game. Even with that loss, the Ducks still rank sixth in defense. They also have the fourth-best penalty killing unit.  Scoring is a major problem for Anaheim. The Ducks, though, should play extremely hard here and they have a strong defense. It's a bonus if the Blues decide to rest Jordan Binnington and go with their backup goalie. 
 

The Ducks are 6-1-1 to the Under in their last eight games. It's easy to see why. They give up the sixth-fewest goals and score the fewest goals per game of any team.  John Gibson was one of the hottest goalies in the league coming into Saturday's game against the Blues with a 1.87 GAA and a save percentage of .942. But Gibson had his worst performance of his career giving up three quick goals. He promptly was pulled. I expect Gibson to be back in goal and with a real chip on his shoulder. Same with the Ducks' defensemen who didn't play well either in Saturday's 6-1 loss to the Blues.  Blues goalie Jordan Binnington is off to a hot start, too, for St. Louis. I'm fine going Under 5 1/2 even if Binnington is rested for this game. The Under has cashed seven of the last 10 times these teams have met.  

The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes.  Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago.  The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent.   Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota. 

The Stars played their first road game of the season yesterday. It didn't go well. The Hurricanes beat them, 4-1. Dallas was outshot, 26-11. That was embarrassing. It also was a humiliation for Dallas goalie Anton Khuodobin, who had a rare bad game letting in four goals on 16 shots and getting pulled from the game.  I want the Stars going for me in this rapid revenge spot. Dallas has won eight of the last 11 times as a road 'dog. The Hurricanes are playing short-handed due to COVID-19 issues. They probably also lost their starting goalie, Petr Mrazek. He was injured against the Stars and isn't likely to play here. Carolina's backup goalie is James Reimer, who I don't hold in high esteem

Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc. 

I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games?  None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view.  Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game. 
 

The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit.  The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again.  Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago.  I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days.  The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record. 
  

I don't believe the Avalanche should be this big of a road favorite. Each team is 5-3.  Colorado is 2-2 in its road games and has been outscored away from home. The Avalanche fattened up their statistics by sweeping two home games from the Sharks this past week.  The Wild are 12-5 the last 17 times hosting Colorado. 

Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa.  Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game.  Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring. 

The Islanders, with Barry Trotz cracking the whip, should feel a lot of urgency after blowing a 3-goal lead to the Capitals in a 6-3 loss this past Thursday. It was New York's third straight defeat. Perhaps the Islands overachieved last season, but they usually prove to be a tough out. They have won in five of their last seven visits to Philadelphia.  The Flyers haven't played at home since Jan. 19. They come in fat and happy having just swept the Devils this past Tuesday and Thursday. The Flyers are far from at full strength with injuries to Sean Couturier, Morgan Frost and Phil Myers. 

These two teams just met on Thursday. There were 117 points scored in San Jose State's 59-58 home win. It was the sixth time in their last seven games the Spartans went Under the total.  So what's going to change in just two days? Not enough for the total to reach as high as the oddsmaker set it.  These teams play slow, especially Air Force. The Falcons are the eight-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 59 points. San Jose State averages 66.2 points, which ranks 294th. The Spartans are likely to be missing their leading scorer, Richard Washington, again due to an undisclosed injury. He averages 20.7 points a game. The next highest scorer for San Jose State averages 11.7 points. 

The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11.  There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest.  The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number. 

Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times.  The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game.  Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets. 

When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand.  Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before.  SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars.  

Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class.  The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game. 

I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages.  The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes. 

Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.  

I'm not often looking to get involved with the Blackhawks in what is a clear rebuilding year for them. But taking a small plus price in this spot puts me on them. 

 Columbus is coming off a 3-2 shootout victory against Florida on Thursday night. The Blue Jackets got revenge for a 4-3 shootout loss to the Panthers from Tuesday. This is their third game in four days and first road contest in 10 days. They are 1-3 on the road losing a pair to the Predators by multiple goals and splitting with the Red Wings, the worst team in hockey and a team that lost a pair of road games to the Blackhawks earlier this week by a combined seven goals.  Chicago is 2-0 at home with the victories against Detroit. This is just the Blackhawks' third home game. They have shown improvement. Their last two games were 1-goal road losses to the Predators in overtime and in a shootout. The Blackhawks' young players are showing some potential and Chicago has found a goalie who has been looking good - Kevin Lankinen. He has a .931 save percentage.  The Blackhawks are 10-2 the past 12 times hosting the Blue Jackets. 

I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs.  This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals.  Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor. 

I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday.  Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards.  I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played.  The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown.  Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. 

Florida Gulf Coast is averaging only 64.5 points in its last four games. Stetson is giving up just 66.2 points during its last five games. The Hatters are not an up-tempo team, which is fine with Florida Gulf Coast. Neither offense is dynamic. Stetson ranks 288th in scoring averaging 66.5 points a game, while the Eagles rank 183rd in scoring at 71.9 points. They've held their last four foes to an aveage of 64.5 points.  Given the current defensive form of both teams - and lack of tempo and big scoring - look for this one to go Under the total. 
  

I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track.  Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game.  Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer.  This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests.  I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right. 
  

San Jose can score. The Sharks have demonstrated that in producing at least three goals in five of their seven games. However, that's negated by the Sharks ranking 30th defensively allowing an average of four goals per game. 

 The Sharks have permitted three or more goals in all but one of their seven games. Included in that is a 7-3 Colorado victory against San Jose at home two days ago.  The Avalanche have scored 15 goals during their last two games. The Sharks are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They aren't helped playing again in Denver's high altitude. High altitude could be a reason why the Over has won seven of the past eight times in Colorado home games.  This series has an Over bias, too, with the high side going 19-7-3 the last 29 times.
   

I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs.  The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games.  The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.    

Much credit to the short-handed Capitals for pulling out a 3-2 victory against the Islanders on Tuesday scoring the game-winner with 26 seconds left. New York had won seven straight at Washington previous to that game. I'm looking for a bounce back from the Islanders, who blew a 2-1 second period lead against the Capitals.  The Islanders' loss did not sit well with their coach, Barry Trotz. He formerly coached the Capitals and is one of the best coaches in the NHL.  The Capitals managed to beat the usually well-disciplined Islanders despite missing Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuzntesov, Dmitry Orlov and starting goalie Ilya Samsonov. They are all on the COVID-19 protocol list. Enforcer Tom Wilson also missed the game with a lower-body injury. Then during the game, the Capitals lost forward Nicklas Backstrom. I'd be very surprised if the Capitals manage to beat the Islanders again without so many key players. 

Scoring a game-tying goal with three seconds left, Florida went on to beat the Blue Jackets, 4-3 in a shootout, two days ago in Columbus. The Panthers outplayed the Blue Jackets and deserved to pull out that win. But I see the Blue Jackets getting their revenge here. They've defeated Florida 14 of the last 17 times at home even with that Tuesday defeat. Columbus may have suffered a letdown in that loss to the Panthers. The Blue Jackets had upset defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay by three goals in their previous game, which also was at home.  This will be just the Panthers' fourth game. They are 3-0, but their first two victories occurred at home against the Blackhawks. Note, too, that Florida backup goalie Chris Driedger is expected to be in net.

Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. 

 The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge.  UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State.  The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers.  Expect Utah State to play much better. 
    

Well the oddsmaker wised up a little when it comes to these two teams. The opening totals number was 6 when the Senators and Canucks met two days ago. The Canucks won that game, 7-1, so now the total opens at 6 1/2 with juice to the Under.

 Until proven otherwise, I'm going to ride the Over with these two teams in their rematch today.  These are the two worst defenses in the NHL. Ottawa surrenders 4.5 goals per game. Vancouver gives up 4.25 goals a game. The Canucks broke out of their scoring slump against the defenseless Senators. The Senators are promising changes. So what? They haven't stopped any team all season. There have been seven or more goals scored in four of Ottawa's six games.  The Over is 7-1 in Vancouver's games this season. Until holding Ottawa to one goal, the Canucks had permitted at least three goals in every game.  The Over has cashed in each of the last five games between these teams.  I see no reason to change course especially since the total hasn't reached 7. 
     

This is a big totals number. Perhaps, on the surface, it may be justified. But a lot has to go right for the Over to cash. I believe the marketplace, whose early money has been on the Over, is wrong to bet this one up. 

 James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are learning to play together. Harden and Irving are still rounding into shape. There were just 183 points scored in the Nets' last game, a 98-85 win against the Heat two days ago. The Heat did have numerous people out, including Jimmy Butler. Still, holding any NBA team to 85 points is impressive.  There were 207 points produced in the Hawks' last game, a 108-99 Atlanta victory against the Clippers last night. LA was minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Hawks, though, have been in excellent defensive form recently thanks to big men Clint Capela and John Collins. If you discount a 129-115 loss to the Bucks, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 100 points.  Atlanta ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage - so Harden could be in for a rough shooting night - and has the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the league.   

The last time the Avalanche were home they buried the Blues, 8-0. Now I don't expect Colorado to beat San Jose by eight goals, but I do believe the Avalanche will win this game by multiple goals. 

 Colorado fell 3-1 on the road to the Ducks this past Sunday. That was a frustrating defeat for the Avalanche, who outshot Anaheim, 33-15, while running into hot goalie John Gibson.  Now the Avalanche drop way down defensively in class hosting San Jose. The Sharks rank 27th defensively. This is their fourth game in six days so they have a heavy fatigue factor, which further erodes an already weak defense. San Jose has dropped eight of its 11 road contests even after upsetting Minnesota this past Sunday.  

The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time.  This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury.

Surprised the Islanders are a mid-sized road favorite against the Capitals? Shouldn't be because the spot and situation set up well for New York.

 The Islanders enter this two-game series off a 2-0 loss to the Devils this past Sunday. Islanders coach Barry Trotz was not happy about that defeat and he let his team know about it. Trotz should have his squad ready and fired-up to play his former team. So I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Islanders. The Capitals are 0-7 the past seven times they've hosted the patient and defensive-minded Islanders, a team that has frustrated them with their style. The Islanders are strong again defensively ranking third in fewest goals allowed per game and fourth in penalty kill.  Washington is highly vulnerable right now with Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dimitry Orlov and starting goalie Ilya Samsonov all on the COVID-19 list. In addition, enforcer Tom Wilson is likely out, too, because of a lower body injury.  The Capitals have managed three victories because they've played four of their six games against the Sabres. They are 3-1 versus Buffalo. Their other two games were losses to the Penguins. 
 

Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. 

 The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there.  The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday.  ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests.
   

I'm very surprised this total opened at 6 with juice instead of 6 1/2 or even 7 given the low quality of these defenses. 

 Ottawa ranks 29th defensively giving up 4.0 goals a game. Vancouver is even worse. The Canucks surrender an NHL-high 4.7 goals per game. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Vancouver has given up an average of five goals a game during its past six games. The good news for the Canucks is they have young, talented goal scorers. One of these is Elias Pettersson, who is starting to emerge out of an early-season scoring slump. The Canucks should get their share of goals against an Ottawa squad that just surrendered four goals in the third period during its last game, a 6-3 road loss to the Jets this past Saturday.  The Senators have permitted at least three goals in all five of their games. Goalie Matt Murray has not looked good in the early going.  The Over has cashed during the past four meetings between the two teams. That trend should continue as I'm expecting a loose game from two teams with a combined 3-9 record. 

The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. 

 But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers.  LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5.  So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits.  The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets.  Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers. 

Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19.  There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers.  There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast.   

I'm looking for Illinois State to get revenge on Valparaiso after the Crusader upset Illinois State, 69-60, as 2-point road 'dogs on Saturday. The Redbirds suffered a letdown having upset Bradley at home during their previous game. Illinois holds a backcourt edge and should shoot more than 10 free throws, which was their Saturday total. The Redbirds also should make more than seven 3-pointers. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point shooting accuracy.  The Crusaders had failed to cover in six straight games until upsetting Illinois State. 

This is a nice situational spot for the Flames. After sweeping the Canucks in two home games by a combined, 8-2, the Flames have been idle since Monday. That's given them plenty of time to practice, get fully in sync and be prepared for this matchup. 

 The Maple Leafs will be playing for the sixth time in 10 days. They are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Oilers on Friday night despite being short-handed minus Auston Matthews and Joe Thornton, who is out for around a month. Matthews, the Maple Leafs' best player, is questionable due to an upper body injury.  I like Calgary goalie Jacob Markstrom more than Toronto's Frederik Andersen, who is too inconsistent for my taste. Markstrom has been sharp early with a 1.99 GAA and .935 save percentage in three games.  The Flames have won nine of the last 11 times they've been favored, while the Maple Leafs are 6-14 the last 20 times as underdogs.

If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. 

 So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow.  But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts.  Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday.  The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries.  Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him.  The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks.  Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents. 
   

The Kings have opened with four tough games, two of which went into overtime. After hosting the Wild twice and Avalanche twice, the Kings take to the road for the first time this season. The road has not been kind to the Kings. They have lost 41 of their past 58 away contests.  This is LA's third game, too, in five days. The Blues have been idle since Wednesday when they lost 2-1 at home to the Sharks in a shootout. The Blues are rested and anxious to put that defeat behind them.  It's a bad spot for the Kings, fresh off their first win, 4-2, against Colorado two days ago. I can see the Blues winning by multiple goals.  

Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games.  The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests.   

This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8.  The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three.  The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga.  St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win. 

I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup.  McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points.  Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games. 

Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time.  The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time.  West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups. 

Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons.  Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma.  The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12.  The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark. 
 

 The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs.  Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans.  The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team. 

Las Vegas heads off for its first road trip fat and happy at 4-0, its best start in franchise-history. The Golden Knights play two games against the Coyotes in Arizona before returning back to Las Vegas for a stretch of eight home contests in 10 games.  The Golden Knights just swept the Coyotes in Las Vegas. The Coyotes aren't going to lack motivation in this short revenge spot. The Golden Knights not only could be in for a letdown, but also their concentration may be lacking. This is their first time away from home and they have to follow COVID-19 protocols. It's going to be a different experience.  Buried by seven penalties, the Coyotes fell behind the Golden Knights early in their 5-2 loss this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Coyotes to play much better today under favorable situational elements. 

Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. 

 San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring.  Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points.  There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record.    

Detroit looks improved. Chicago looks horrible. No fans either for the Blackhawks so their home ice is largely negated.  This combination lands me on the Red Wings. Detroit is 2-2. If it weren't for a one-goal loss to the Blue Jackets they would be riding a three-game winning streak. Detroit's confidence is up and its puck control has been much better. Jonathan Bernier and Thomas Greiss have played well in net. It's become very evident this is a rebuild year for the Blackhawk - and a big one at that. The Blackhawks are going with a massive youth movement. They miss the leadership and skill set of veteran captain Jonathan Toews and defenseman Brent Seabrook. The Blackhawks have surrendered five goals in each of their four games this season in going 0-4 versus Tampa Bay and Florida.  

The Blackhawks have played four games. They've allowed five goals in every one of their games. Their defense is littered with inexperienced players and their three goalies have all been terrible. The Red Wings, led by Dylan Larkin, are improved offensively.  Chicago prefers to play up-tempo trying to win that way. The Blackhawks had the misfortune of playing their opening two games against Tampa Bay. Their offense has picked up since then producing six goals in the last two games against Florida. Chicago averaged 33 shots on net versus the Panthers. 

I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago.  Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover.  The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one.  The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury.  
  

I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play.

 This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team.  Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments.  One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement. 
  

The Rangers are averaging just 2.5 goals in their first three games. Ryan Strome and Alexis Lafreniere, the first overall pick in the draft, are off to slow starts. Neither has produced a single point yet. That's going to change. It could happen here against the Penguins, who are giving up 4.7 goals a game.  Things don't figure to immediately improve for the Penguins defense either. Pittsburgh has a cluster blue line problem with only three healthy defensemen. The Penguins are going to be forced to use inexperienced players and low quality veterans to fill defensive positions. Their plight isn't helped by poor goalie play.  The Rangers' net play has been spotty, too. The Penguins have scored three or more goals in three of their four games.  The Over is 9-1-1 the last 11 times the two teams have played in Pittsburgh.

I had the Over when these two teams met two days ago. The final in that one was Edmonton 3, Toronto 1. I was caught off guard by how the Oilers and Maple Leafs changed their games around for that matchup.  The Oilers basically went into a defensive shell. They were determined to prove they could play defense. Preventing goals and not feeding off Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were the Oilers' priorities in Wednesday's game. Boring, but it worked. So I don't expect the Oilers to deviate from that game plan.  Toronto has used a defensive-heavy makeup to its roster. The Maple Leafs' offense is overrated right now averaging 2.5 goals in their last four games. Auston Matthews is their most dynamic scorer and he's questionable. Veteran Joe Thornton is out.  The Oilers managed just 21 shots against Toronto in their Wednesday game.  Lesson learned from the last meeting. Lesson now applied here. 

Arkansas-Little Rock has been a strong Over team. The Over has cashed in 74 percent of its last 34 games. The Trojans have gone Over in eight of their last nine road contests. Arkansas-Little Rock just played two games against Texas State, which has the 40th-best defense in the nation. Before meeting Texas State, the Trojans had scored at least 75 points in eight of their last nine games. Now Little Rock is stepping way down in defensive class.  UT-Arlington is a much weaker defensive team than Texas State. The Mavericks are all about a fast tempo and high scoring. They average 79.2 points and play faster than any other Sun Belt Conference team. The Mavericks have produced a minimum of 75 points in seven of their last nine games. 

These two teams just played on Thursday. Merrimack won, 62-51. That's a combined score of 113 points.  Fairleigh Dickinson shot 32 percent from the floor displaying trouble handling Merrimack's zone defense. The Knights are likely to struggle with their shooting again with no time to adjust and ranking 245th in the country in scoring.  Merrimack is no whiz offensively either. The Warriors rank 293rd in scoring and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. They are 13-3-1 to the Under following a victory.