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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-24-19	Ohio State v. Houston UNDER 132.5		59-74	Loss	-109	30 h 31 m	Show
Both teams have outstanding defenses and play at slow tempos. They aren't going to change their styles. Given the importance of this matchup, Under is the right way to look. Houston gives up just 61.1 points a game, which ranks seventh-best in the country, and holds foes to a nation-best 36.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Cougars also have the No. 1 3-point defense. Ohio State is no match for that as the Buckeyes average fewer than 70 points per game. The Buckeyes, though, rank 42nd defensively holding foes to 66 points a game.
03-24-19	Oklahoma v. Virginia -11		51-63	Win	100	21 h 37 m	Show
Rarely has Oklahoma encountered a defense as tough as Virginia's. When the Sooners did they did not fare well going 0-5 versus Wisconsin and two games each against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Not once in those five games did the Sooners break the 61-point barrier. Virginia is the No. 1 defensive team in the country - by a wide margin. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma is extremely lucky to even make the Tournament. The Sooners entered tournament play 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS. Oklahoma can get hot, though. The Sooners did just that in blowing out overachieving Mississippi, 95-72, on Friday. Now, though, the Sooners are going way up in class. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cavaliers aren't taking anything for granted after they became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the tournament falling to Maryland-Baltimore Country last season.The Cavaliers were tight during the first half of their Thursday opening round tournament game against Gardner-Webb. But then they found their groove in the second half to pull away for a 71-56 victory.
03-24-19	Spurs v. Celtics UNDER 220		115-96	Win	100	17 h 27 m	Show
San Antonio has been one of the top defensive teams since the All-Star break. The Spurs have held nine of their past 12 opponents to 105 or fewer points. The Under is 10-2 in San Antonio's last 12 games. The Spurs, though, are in stop-the-pain mode having dropped two in a row. Boston is in worse shape. The Celtics have dropped three in a row with the third one coming in unbelievable fashion on Saturday night. The Celtics blew an 18-point fourth quarter lead in a 124-117 road loss to Charlotte. The Celtics scored five points during the final 8:21. Brad Stevens called out his team's lack of toughness following that Boston loss. The Celtics return home now for this matchup. You have to believe the Celtics are going to play intense defense. Boston could get back injured center Aron Baynes. That would be a plus for the Under as Baynes offers toughness underneath but little offense. There's a possibility, too, Boston could be minus Jayson Tatum, its second-leading scorer. Tatum suffered a bruised lower back against the Hornets.
03-23-19	Suns v. Kings UNDER 231.5	Top	103-112	Win	100	12 h 35 m	Show
We know neither the Suns nor the Kings are strong defensively. Of course the oddsmaker is well aware of that, too, hence the hight total here. But lately both of these teams have been going Under the total a lot. The Under has cashed in five of Phoenix's past six games. The Kings have gone Under in 12 of their last 17 home games. There are reasons for this. The Suns have scored 102 or fewer points in four of their last five games. This can be accounted for their many injuries. The Suns are minus T.J. Warren, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tyler Johnson. Josh Jackson isn't likely to play either after suffering an ankle injury in the Suns' last game. Without those players, the Suns lose their No. 2., No. 3, No. 5 and No. 6 scorers. The situation is so dire for the Suns they signed Jimmer Fredette. I'd love to have Fredette on my rec league team. But as for the NBA, well no. Fredette is not NBA quality. Sacramento has played two lottery teams during its last three games - the Mavericks and Bulls. They held Dallas to 100 points and Chicago to 102 points.
03-23-19	Murray State +5 v. Florida State	Top	62-90	Loss	-115	16 h 12 m	Show
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
03-22-19	UCF v. VCU OVER 126.5		73-58	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated. Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game. VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games. The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility.
03-22-19	Clippers -6.5 v. Cavs		110-108	Loss	-108	8 h 24 m	Show
Break up the Cavaliers? I don't think so. Cleveland has won two in row beating the Bucks and Pistons. Milwaukee was minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Detroit didn't have Blake Griffin when Cleveland posted those victories. The Clippers are at full strength and going for playoff seeding. LA should be fully focused having been idle the past two days and realizing the Cavaliers have won two straight. Collin Sexton is having a strong rookie season, but Cleveland doesn't offer much else. Kevin Love, the Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, may not play due to a concussion. The Clippers average 10 points more per game than the Cavaliers. Cleveland has had problems matching up when taking on opponents from the superior Western Conference going 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS the past eight times.
03-22-19	Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5	Top	74-91	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
03-21-19	Coyotes +116 v. Panthers		2-4	Loss	-100	4 h 58 m	Show
The Coyotes are better than the Panthers and have been in Florida the past few days after losing, 4-1, to the Lightning on Monday. Prior to that defeat, the Coyotes had won nine of their last 12 games. They are 10-3 the past 13 times meeting a sub .500 opponent. This isn't a good spot for Florida. The Panthers just got done playing four consecutive road games. This is their first home game in a week.
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-21-19	Murray State v. Marquette -3		83-64	Loss	-117	19 h 42 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
03-21-19	Bradley v. Michigan State -18		65-76	Loss	-110	17 h 51 m	Show
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
03-20-19	Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU		69-82	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
03-20-19	Wizards -2 v. Bulls	Top	120-126	Loss	-113	18 h 9 m	Show
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday. Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East. The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent.
03-20-19	Rockets v. Grizzlies +4		125-126	Win	100	18 h 7 m	Show
Great spot for the Grizzlies here. Memphis is playing well at home covering nine of its last 11 at FedEx Forum and draw the Rockets carrying a heavy rating and in a look-ahead spot. This marks the Rockets' fourth game in six days and second in two days. Houston took care of Atlanta, 121-105, as 7 1/2-point road favorites on Tuesday. Following this game, the Rockets host the Spurs on Friday. Houston leads San Antonio by three games in the Southwest Division. A loss to the Spurs in that matchup obviously would tighten up the division. Houston already is holding out Eric Gordon against the Grizzlies for rest purposes. Perhaps the Rockets might even sit James Harden and Chris Paul, too. Unlike the Rockets, the Grizzlies are fully rested. They have been idle the past three days. Memphis hasn't lost by more than six points at home during the past 11 times.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-19-19	Maple Leafs +112 v. Predators		0-3	Loss	-100	17 h 5 m	Show
I want the Maple Leafs going for me here after they were embarrassed, 6-2, by the Senators this past Saturday. Toronto has had two full days to live with that humiliation and to tighten its defense. The Maple Leafs are 14-2 the past 16 times when playing on two days rest. They've also won in four of their past five visits to Nashville. The Predators are fat and happy returning to Nashville after an impressive 4-2 road win against the Sharks on Saturday. I don't think they will match the Maple Leafs' anticipated intensity level.
03-19-19	Penguins +124 v. Hurricanes		2-3	Loss	-100	16 h 6 m	Show
I don't think the Hurricanes are as good as the Penguins. That has been proven in the standings and in past meetings. Pittsburgh is 10-3 the last 13 times taking on the Hurricanes holding them to two or fewer goals in 11 of those games. The Penguins also have defeated the Hurricanes five of the last six times in Carolina. The spot is good, too, for the Penguins. They are coming off two consecutive home losses. They have had a good rhythm when playing on one day rest winning 15 of the past 22 times in that spot.
03-19-19	76ers v. Hornets +1		118-114	Loss	-105	15 h 21 m	Show
This may be Charlotte's game of the year. The Hornets are two games out of the final playoff spot in the East and have triple revenge against the 76ers, losing three times to them this season by an average of only two points per game. The Hornets play much better at home with a 21-14 mark compared to 10-24 on the road. The 76ers have covered just 42 percent of their road games this season going 14-19. Philly is in a sandwich spot, too. The 76ers just upset the Bucks on the road in a nationally televised game this past Sunday and host the Celtics on Wednesday. So it's easy for the youthful 76ers to look past the Hornets. The 76ers already have said they will sit out Joel Embiid in order to rest him for the Celtics. Philly has failed to cover five of the past six times when meeting a below .500 opponent.
03-18-19	Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6.5		7-3	Win	105	13 h 5 m	Show
I fully expect each team to produce at least three goals here, which would ensure an Over. San Jose has allowed four goals in each of its last three games. The Golden Knights have produced three or more goals in 13 of their last 18 games. They just scored six goals versus the Oilers on Sunday night. Mark Stone has been a monster addition for the Golden Knights. The Sharks are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They have tallied three or more goals in 10 of their last 14 games. San Jose catches a huge break here, too, because the Golden Knights' star goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury, won't play.
03-18-19	Pistons v. Cavs +7		119-126	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
Great win by the Pistons on Sunday against the Raptors. However, Detroit doesn't have much time to savor its victory. The Pistons begin a five-game road trip here. So not only is a letdown possible, but Detroit's concentration and focus may off, too. The Cavaliers should not lack for motivation as this is a triple-revenge spot for them. Just 16 days ago, the Pistons easily handled the Cavaliers, 129-93. That victory was achieved on the Cavaliers' home floor. Cleveland didn't have Kevin Love in that embarrassing loss. The key question is are the Cavaliers good enough to cover this mid-size spread? Detroit is clearly a tier higher than Cleveland. But the Pistons are far from elite. They have stumbled, too, when playing in Clevland covering just once in their last six trips. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 2-0 during their last two home games beating the Magic by 14 points and Raptors by 25 points.
03-17-19	Panthers v. Ducks OVER 5.5		2-3	Loss	-115	8 h 19 m	Show
The Ducks are playing looser and as a result they are averaging 3.7 goals in their last eight games. If that was computed out for the entire season, the Ducks would rank No. 2 in goal scoring. Florida is a top-10 scoring team, but ranks 26th defensively. The Panthers have been hot averaging five goals during their last four games. Florida, though, has permitted at least three goals in eight of its last 11 games.
03-17-19	Nets +6.5 v. Clippers		116-119	Win	100	9 h 13 m	Show
The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode being 0-2 on their seven-game road trip with losses to the Thunder and Jazz. That used to not mean anything. It does now because the Nets aren't a bottom feeder anymore. They are a legitimate playoff team entering today just one-half game behind the Pistons for the sixth seed in the East. The Clippers are a level below the Thunder and Jazz. They don't have the stars Oklahoma City and Utah has. Brooklyn is not outclassed here. I would give the Nets an advantage in the backcourt with their trio of D'Angelo Rusell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert. The Nets should have beaten the Clippers in the first meeting this season. They blew a 15-point lead in a 127-119 home loss. I'm not fond of the Nets as chalk, but I lke them as 'dogs because they are well-coached and can usually be counted on to play hard. They have covered six of their last eight road contests versus opponents with a winning home record.
03-17-19	Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 129.5	Top	60-65	Loss	-114	12 h 29 m	Show
This is the third meeting between these two teams. The total opened the lowest of the three games. I understand that thinking since Michigan and Michigan State know each other backward and forward now. But I also believe there are factors and facts that will make this the highest scoring matchup of the three games. Michigan is playing well. The Wolverines scored 74 and 76 points, respectively, in beating Iowa and Minnesota so far in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. They are in a nice scoring groove. Michigan State is averaging 76 points in its two games versus the Wolverines. The Spartans are averaging 77.5 points in their last four games and that includes a 67-point game against Wisconsin, which has the ninth-ranked defense in the country. The Wolverines haven't been able to stop Michigan State's star guard, Cassius Winston, who has hurt Michigan with his shooting and working the pick-and-roll with Xavier Tillman. It's a plus for Michigan State if Nick Ward can produce points in the low post after returning from a broken hand. Michigan's scoring is going to be helped because Charles Matthews, its third-leading scorer, is back. He hurt his ankle in the first meeting between the teams and sat out the second get together.
03-16-19	Oregon -115 v. Washington		68-48	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Washington plays outstanding defense. But Oregon has been playing even better defense holding foes to 55.1 points. The Ducks are blazing winning and covering their last seven games. Dana Altman has done a tremendous job coaching Oregon, which lost star center Bol Bol for the season. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They failed to beat the Ducks when they hosted them last Saturday, losing 55-47. That was the fourth time in the past five meetings Oregon covered versus Washington.
03-16-19	Maple Leafs v. Senators +1.5		2-6	Win	100	6 h 56 m	Show
The Senators showed a pluse shutting out the Blues, 2-0, at home on Thursday. Ottawa is in a great ambush spot here. The Senators draw the Maple Leafs playing without rest after Toronto rallied from a three-goal deficit to nip the Flyers, 7-6, at home on Friday. The Maple Leafs have had problems in Ottawa and historically haven't been good in this role. They are 2-8 the past 10 times on the road versus opponents with a losing home mark. Toronto has lost six of its last eight visits to Ottawa, too. Ottawa catches another break as Toronto will be starting backup goalie Garret Sparks.
03-16-19	Suns v. Pelicans -2.5		138-136	Loss	-107	6 h 29 m	Show
It's smaller, but there is still a gap between these two teams. New Orleans is better and at home. So this spread is short. Anthony Davis is expected to play He's backed by Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton, a pair of underrated players who are playing at high levels. On the flip side, Suns star rookie center Deandre Ayton could be hitting the wall. He scored a career-low two points on 1-for-9 shooting against the Jazz two games ago. The Suns are playing without rest having lost to the Rockets, 108-102, on the road. New Orleans is 2-0 versus Phoenix this season winning 119-99 at home on Nov. 10 and 130-116 on the road March 1. The Suns have failed to cover in their last six games against the Pelicans.
03-16-19	Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 147	Top	58-67	Win	100	7 h 53 m	Show
If you're going to get involved playing an Under in the Sun Belt Conference this is the game to do it. Georgia Southern and Texas Arlington rank among the three best defensive teams in the league. The Under has cashed the past six times in the series. The two games this season averaged 140 points. Georgia Southern has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Mavericks have gone Under 23 times in their last 133 games. Note, too, this game is played at neutral site Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, which has a reputation of being a tough place to shoot because of the backdrop.
03-16-19	Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5		55-67	Win	100	9 h 46 m	Show
Wisconsin isn't as good as Michigan State especially with the Spartans getting back forward Nick Ward, their second-leading scorer. The Badgers rely on forward Ethan Happ, who isn't a great shooter. Happ didn't play well in the Badgers' 66-62 victory against Nebraska on Friday scoring just four points and committing seven turnovers. The Spartans will key on Happ. The Spartans have the best guard on the court in Cassius Winston. The Badgers will try to key on Winston. The Spartans, though, have a secret weapon, freshman point guard Foster Loyer, to keep the pressure off Winston. Loyer played well in the Spartans' opening Big Ten Tournament victory over Ohio State on Friday. The Badgers struggled against the Cornhuskers, a team the Spartans rolled past, 91-76, at home three games ago. Tom Izzo has Michigan State peaking at the right time again. The Spartans closed the regular season beating Michigan, 75-63, as four-point home favorites a week ago. Wisconsin went up against Michigan on Feb. 9 and lost as seven-point road 'dogs, 61-52. Michigan State handled Wisconsin in the team's lone meeting this season, winning 67-59 on the road. The Spartans have covered 15 of their last 21 Big Ten games, while the Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten matchups.
03-15-19	Colorado v. Washington -120	Top	61-66	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
The Pac-12 was way down again this season. If there is one decent team in the conference, though, it's Washington. I don't see Colorado getting past the Huskies. The Buffaloes can't solve Washington's tough zone defense. The Huskies are the best team in the Pac-12 because of their league-leading defense giving up 62.3 points a game and ranking No. 2 in the conference in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Buffaloes the past two seasons. Washington has won these games by an average of 12 points holding the Buffaloes to an average of 61.5 points a game during this span. The teams met just three weeks ago and the Huskies won, 64-55, at home. The Huskies forced 19 turnovers and held Colorado to a season-low in points.
03-15-19	Knicks +13.5 v. Spurs		83-109	Loss	-109	12 h 34 m	Show
Believe it or not, the Knicks buried the Spurs, 130-118, when the teams met at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 24. So the Knicks are capable. I fully realize, though, the Spurs are playing much better now and the Knicks rank at the lowest level. But I'm going to take advantage of what I perceived as an inflated line. New York has lost by more than 11 points once in its last 11 games and only once in their last 24 games have the Spurs won by more than 12 points and that was by 14 points. The Spurs are too savvy to go all out here knowing they host the Trail Blazers on Saturday and Warriors on Monday. That's two big look-ahead challenges. It wouldn't be shocking if Gregg Popovich rested a key starter here, or reduced the minutes of his starters.
03-15-19	Lakers +11.5 v. Pistons		97-111	Loss	-110	8 h 38 m	Show
The Pistons can't be laying double-digits. Not after back-to-back scoring games of 74 and 75 points. Reggie Jackson is questionable, too, with an ankle injury. The Lakers are going to show some pride with LeBron James playing. The Lakers also have several former Pistons and players from the Detroit area, who will be motivated for this game. LA handled the Pistons when the teams met earlier, 113-100, on Jan. 9. Kyle Kuzma scored 41 points in that game and did a good job defensively on Blake Griffin.
03-15-19	Iowa State +1 v. Kansas State		63-59	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
The buy sign for me on Iowa State is on after the Cyclones buried Baylor, 83-66, in their Big 12 Conference Tournament game Thursday. I'm going to ride the Cyclones here. These two teams met a month ago at Kansas State. Iowa State won, 78-64. Even though this matchup is in Kansas City, Mo., the Cyclones have a home-court advantage as far as fan support.
03-14-19	Oregon -4 v. Utah		66-54	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
I like the way Oregon is playing. The Ducks have five straight wins and covers, including zipping past Washington State, 84-51, in their opening Pac-12 Conference Tournament game. The Ducks handled Utah on the road winning, 78-72, during the regular season. Now they draw the Utes on a neutral court. Oregon won that first meeting despite shooting just 5-for-21 from 3-point range and getting fewer free throw attempts than Utah. Oregon has the 19th-stingiest defense in the nation giving up 63.3 points a game. The Ducks have held their last four foes to an average of 51.5 points a game. Utah permits 11 more points per game than Oregon. The Utes have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral site games.
03-14-19	Panthers v. Sharks OVER 6.5		4-2	Loss	-130	10 h 59 m	Show
The Panthers are playing loose and have scored six goals in each of their last two games. The Panthers are a top-10 scoring team and have the league's second-most effective power play. Florida, though, ranks 27th defensively and has yielded at least three goals in seven of its last nine games. The Sharks are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They have produced three or more goals in seven of their last eight games. The Sharks wouldn't mind running up a score here after losing 6-2 to Florida in the first meeting this season. Martin Jones had a terrible performance in net for San Jose in that game.
03-14-19	Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 222	Top	106-108	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
Indiana is the No. 1 ranked defensive team in the NBA permitting just 103.9 points a game. The Pacers have held six of their past 10 home foes to fewer than 99 points. One of those 10 opponents was the Bucks, who rank No. 2 in the league in scoring. The Pacers held Milwaukee to 106 points, 11 points under its average. Oklahoma City has held its last two opponents, the Nets and Jazz, to a combined average of 93 points. The Thunder has gone Under in seven of its last nine games. Don't expect Russell Westbrook and the Thunder to play at breakneck speed either as this is Oklahoma City's third game in four days and second in two nights. There is more intensity than normal for a nonconference matchup because of Paul George, who starred for the Pacers for seven seasons before getting traded to the Thunder in 2017. George was jeered loudly when he played at Indiana against the Pacers last season. Indiana won that matchup, 100-95. George hasn't been shooting well either since returning from a right shoulder injury. George has made just 34.4 percent of his field goal attempts in his last five games.
03-14-19	Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 155		89-81	Loss	-105	5 h 41 m	Show
These two teams have been about offense rather than defense. But both have been in better defensive form and their intensity is way up with this being the MAC Tournament. The Under has cashed in Kent State's last three games. The Golden Flashes have been playing better defense holding their last two foes to 65 and 66 points. Central Michigan held Western Michigan to 67 points in its opening MAC Tournament victory.
03-13-19	Rangers +109 v. Canucks		1-4	Loss	-100	21 h 32 m	Show
These two teams aren't good. But the Canucks are worse. Vancouver is 4-13 in its last 17 games. The Rangers are 2-7 in their last nine games. But New York has had some bad luck with six of those losses coming by one goal. Five of those defeats either occurred in overtime, or in a shootout. The Rangers have a strong road history, too, versus the Canucks winning five of the past six times in Vancouver. Overall, the Rangers have won four in a row against Vancouver.
03-13-19	Jazz -7.5 v. Suns	Top	114-97	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
It happened on Sunday, but the Suns still could be celebrating their stunning 115-111 upset win of the Warriors. Phoenix was 17-point road 'dogs. It was the first time the Suns had defeated the Warriors in 19 games having lost 18 in a row to them. The Jazz have won the past four meetings against the Suns by an average of 24.4 points. They whipped Phoenix, 116-88, as 15-point home favories in the previous meeting on Feb. 6. But no way now do the Jazz take the Suns lightly. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode have losting three of four, including two in a row. Utah's defense has been there. But the Jazz's shooting has been off. They hit just 36.4 percent against the Thunder at home on Monday in losing, 98-89. That was the fewest points the Thunder had scored in 27 games. Unfortunately for the Jazz too many of their normally reliable scorers were cold in that game. Donovan Mitchell, who is approaching superstar status, Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles were a combined 15-for46 from the floor in that loss to Oklahoma City. Expect the Jazz to shoot much better against a Phoenix defense that ranks 28th. The Suns have yielded 116 or more points in 18 of its last 22 games. The Jazz are 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a loss and have played better on the road lately covering four of their last five away matchups.
03-13-19	Devils v. Oilers UNDER 6		6-3	Loss	-113	20 h 7 m	Show
The Devils tried to keep up offensively with the Flames on Tuesday and got whacked, 9-4. New Jersey doesn't have the scoring anymore to play an attacking style. Look for the Devils to dial things back against this opponent. Edmonton is a below average offensive team. It has been 24 games since the Oilers last scored more than four goals. They have scored two or fewer goals during regulation in 10 of their last 15 games. New Jersey has only scored 15 goals in its last nine games, an average of 1.6 goals per game during this span. The Under has cashed 69 percent of the time during the past 17 games between the two teams.
03-13-19	Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7		59-73	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
I'm not buying into Pittsburgh getting hot with victories against Notre Dame and Boston College on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. I don't trust the Panthers' freshmen. Pitt is a bad team - 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games verus above .500 foes and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games - and have had problems trying to solve Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. The Orange beat the Panthers, 74-63, at home on Jan. 19 and 65-56 on the road on Feb. 2. The Panthers shot just 33.8 percent and 31.6 percent from the floor in those two games. Syrcause is stepping down in class after concluding its regular season with losses to Virginia and Clemson on the road. The Orange are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
03-13-19	Pistons v. Heat -120		74-108	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
Both teams are coming off bad losses. The Heat were routed at home, 125-104, by the Raptors this past Sunday. The Raptors, at least, are one of the elite teams in the East. The Pistons had their bubble burst losing, 103-75, on the road to the Nets Monday. The Pistons shot a season-worst 27.8 percent from the floor. I see the Heat bouncing back at home in this matchup. Not so for the Pistons. Detroit only has two reliable scorers, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. The Pistons are facing the No. 3 ranked defense and carry a fatigue factor being in action for the third time in four days. The Heat can't afford home losses to mediocre Eastern Conference foes in their quest to make the postseason. Miami had won four in a row until falling to the Raptors. The Heat haven't played since that Sunday loss. I expect them to have a lot of energy and for Erik Spoelstra to have a solid defensive game plan.
03-13-19	Blackhawks v. Maple Leafs OVER 7		5-4	Win	100	17 h 28 m	Show
Hey, it's the Blackhawks. That's the quick answer as to why go Over such a huge total. 16-1-1. That's the Blackhawks' Over record in their last 18 games. 24-2-1. That's the Blackhawks Over mark during their past 27 games. So why not no-brain this and try Over again especially with Chicago on the road and playing the up-tempo Maple Leafs? Chicago is 39-14-4 to the Over in its last 57 road contests. Toronto is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL. The Over is 7-2 in the Maple Leafs' last nine games.
03-12-19	Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers	Top	125-104	Win	100	20 h 43 m	Show
There are reasons why Portland opened a road favorite against the Clippers. The Trail Blazers are the superior team holding a huge starting backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and also have the best big man in Jusuf Nurkic. It's a strong spot, too, for Portland. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday while the Clippers are in action for the third time in five days and are playing without rest. LA is in danger of letting down after consecutive impressive home victories versus the Thunder and Celtics. The Trail Blazers have been sharp on the road covering in six of their last seven away contests. Portland also is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus the Clippers, while covering in their last four visits against the Clippers.
03-12-19	Devils v. Flames OVER 6		4-9	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The Devils aren't going to stand a chance here if they try to play a defensive game - and they know it. The Flames broke out of a scoring slump with a 6-3 home victory against the Golden Knights on Sunday. The Flames are the No. 4 scoring team in the NHL. Their 3M Line of Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik is one of the stronger second lines in the league. Calgary's top line of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm has been slumping, but showed signs of breaking out against Las Vegas. They are not going against an elite goalie either as the Devils will be starting Mackenzie Blackwood. I see the Devils opening up their game against this opponent. This has turned into a rebuilding year for the Devils so there really isn't any pressue. They do seem to play looser against Western Conference foes with the Over cashing in five of their last six games versus West opponents.
03-12-19	Bruins v. Blue Jackets +100		4-7	Win	100	7 h 32 m	Show
I smell a letdown from the Bruins after they lost 4-2 to the Penguins on Sunday. That was Boston's first regulation defeat since Jan. 19, a string of 19 games. The Blue Jackets haven't been playing nearly as well. But they will have a real sense of urgency to win this home contest. Newly acquired Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel are due to start producing and I like having Sergei Bobrovsky in net when he's hot. Bobrovsky has allowed just four goals in his last three games with save percentages of .947, .966 and .967 during this span.
03-12-19	Stars -130 v. Sabres		2-0	Win	100	5 h 52 m	Show
Money has come on Dallas and I can see why. The steam is the right side. Dallas is 4-1 in its last five games. The Stars' lone defeat during this span came to the Blackhawks, 2-1, when Chicago played one of its finest games of the season. Dallas ha permitted only three goals in its last four games. Buffalo is going the other direction. The Sabres are 2-10 in their last 12 games and won't have suspended Jake Eichel, their best player, for this matchup.
03-11-19	San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's	Top	62-69	Loss	-109	9 h 18 m	Show
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record. St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
03-11-19	Thunder v. Jazz -3		98-89	Loss	-110	20 h 22 m	Show
Want to know the coldest NBA team from a point spread perspective? Hint, it's not the Knicks. Congrats if you came up with Oklahoma City. The Thunder have covered just once in their last 10 games - and that one was in overtime. Now the Thunder enter their sixth straight different venue to take on the revenge-minded Jazz, who lost a wild 148-147 two-overtime game to Oklahoma City on Feb. 22 when Paul George hit a game-winner with less than a second left. The Jazz trail the Thunder by 2 1/2 games for the No. 4 playoff spot in the West. Utah has the superior defense and has the best inside player of the two teams with Rudy Gobert. Russell Westbrook and George are superstars, but Donovan Mitchell is rapidly reaching that elevated level. He is outscoring Westbrook on the season. The Jazz got caught peeking ahead to this matchup falling, 114-104, to Memphis as a 4 1/2-point road favorite on Friday. Look for Utah to be ready for this key home matchup. The Jazz have covered 76 percent of the past 22 times the following game after not covering in their previous game.
03-11-19	Senators v. Flyers OVER 6.5		2-3	Loss	-105	6 h 41 m	Show
The Senators already have missed the playoffs and it's not because of their offense. They are average offensively, but dreadful defensively ranking 30th. Ottawa has allowed an average of 4.2 goals in its last seven games. The Flyers happen to be averaging 4.2 goals in their last seven games. Philadelphia, though, has surrendered three or more goals in six of its last nine games. The Flyers are going with Brian Elliott in net rather than Carter Hart. I consider that a break for Ottawa. The last five in the series have gone Over. This includes the first meeting this season, won by the Flyers, 7-4, on the road.
03-10-19	Jets +126 v. Capitals		1-3	Loss	-100	7 h 56 m	Show
I'm going to take a shot on the underdog Jets, who looked great in an 8-1 road win against the Hurricanes on Friday. The Capitals are hot. So were the Hurricanes, though. Washington is riding a six-game win streak. Most of these victories were close games. The Capitals did not look particularly sharp either in beating the banged-up and slumping Devils, 3-0, on Friday. That win pushed the Capitals into first place in the Metropolitan Division. It wouldn't surprise me if the Capitals were fat and happy entering this matchup against the league's seventh-highest scoring team.
03-10-19	Raptors -113 v. Heat		125-104	Win	100	4 h 57 m	Show
Miami finally has gotten healthy, is home and riding a four-game win streak. So because of that we have around a pick'em game. That puts me into play backing the Raptors, a much superior team. Toronto hasn't been good as chalk, but it's certainly not too much to ask the Raptors just to win. Miami's four game win streak is against the the Nets, Hawks, Hornets and Cavaliers. Only the Nets have a winning record of those four teams at 35-33. The Raptors got their confidence back up by rolling past the Pelicans, 127-104, on Friday after a road overtime loss to the hot Pistons and a home loss to the elite Rockets. A significant development in that win against the Pelicans was newcomer Jeremy Lin producing 14 points for the Raptors. Toronto has fortified its rotation picking up Marc Gasol and Linn in recent moves. The Heat have played better on the road than at home where they are 15-18 SU, 14-19 ATS at American Airlines Arena. The Heat have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home games.
03-10-19	Iowa v. Nebraska +1	Top	91-93	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
03-09-19	Suns v. Blazers -12.5		120-127	Loss	-102	20 h 43 m	Show
Break up the Suns. Phoenix has won three in a row. That doesn't change the fact the Suns own the worst record in the Western Conference at 15-51 and would like to land the No. 1 overall draft pick for the second year in a row. Closer inspection shows the Suns' three-game win streak occurred at home with two of the victims being the free-falling Lakers and Knicks, owners of the worst record in the NBA at 13-52. The Suns did stun the Bucks, which has caught the Trail Blazers' attention and should prevent them from taking the Suns lightly. The Suns have lost 13 of their last 14 road games, going 5-9 ATS in these contests. Portland has defeated Phoenix seven times in a row with the last coming, 120-106, as 8 1/2-point road favorites on Jan. 24. So I consider this line fair and I love the spot for Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 129-121 home overtime loss to the Thunder on Thursday. That was Portland's first home game since Feb. 13. The Trail Blazers had played seven consecutive road games. Now they are settled back at home where they have covered 69 percent of their past 55 games. The Trail Blazers don't play again until Tuesday when they begin a three-game road trip. So expect the Trail Blazers to be motivated for a kill spot win here with zero chance of overlooking the Suns based on the situation and Phoenix riding a three-game win streak.
03-09-19	Kings v. Coyotes OVER 5		2-4	Win	100	5 h 42 m	Show
This total is too low for these teams, who should each be good for at least two goals apiece. The Coyotes have scored three or more goals in six of their last eight games. The Kings have allowed 30 goals in their last seven games, an average of 4.2 per game.
03-09-19	Devils v. Rangers UNDER 6		2-4	Push	0	19 h 54 m	Show
It has been 12 games since the Devils had a total of less than 6 on one of their games. Maybe the oddsmaker should reconsider this because the Devils are not a high scoring team anymore and their goal tending and defense have improved. New Jersey has just nine goals in its last seven games. The Devils haven't' scored a power play goal during their past nine games spanning 24 opportunities. The Rangers are a perfect 14-for-14 in killing penalties the last four games. The Rangers aren't scoring either notching just six goals in their last four games. The Devils have allowed only nine goals in their last five games, discounting a 6-3 loss to the Flyers. There should be some intensity in this matchup between these two division rivals. The Devils have dropped five in a row. The Rangers have lost six straight. So one team is going to end their losing streak leading me to believe this is going to be a tight-checking, defensive matchup with neither team wanting to take a chance knowing a victory is a real possibility especially with each offense struggling.
03-09-19	Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado UNDER 144	Top	89-78	Loss	-110	14 h 54 m	Show
There is a good reason why Northern Colorado has gone Under in 17 of its last 22 games. The Bears have the best defense in the Big Sky Conference. They also play at a very slow tempo. The Bears are a heavy favorite in this matchup. So they certainly aren't going to be rushing shots especially if they built up a solid lead as expected. Northern Arizona also plays at at slower than normal pace. The Lumberjacks are very deliberate when going against an above .500 foe as reflected in the Under winning six of the last seven times they have faced a winning team. The teams met earlier this season in late January. Final score: Northern Colorado 63, Northern Arizona 48. That's a combined 111 points.
03-09-19	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -1		73-81	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
Texas Arlington is coming on in its bid to finish first in the Sun Belt Conference winning three in a row. Texas State is feeling the pressure of trying to place first. The Bobcats are coming off a bad 77-63 road loss to South Alabama losing as a three-point favorite. The Bobcats' lone cover during their last four games is against free-falling Troy. Texas Arlington has the superior defense. The Mavericks rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They are are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory and have covered 12 of their past 15 league games. I'm going to ride them again.
03-09-19	Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State		80-73	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I want hot Texas Tech going for me here especially in a revenge spot. The Red Raiders have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight while going 7-1 ATS. Don't expect any kind of letup either as the Red Raiders are tied for the Big 12 lead with Kansas State and want payback for a 68-64 home loss to the Cyclones. Iowa State is faltering losing six of its last eight games. The Cyclones have failed to cover six of the past eight times versus above .500 opponents. Texas Tech is holding foes to 58.2 points a game, which is the second-best mark in the nation. Iowa State just gave up 90 points to West Virginia and 86 to Texas in the game before that. Texas Tech defeated Texas, 70-51, in its last game.
03-08-19	Thunder v. Clippers -120	Top	110-118	Win	100	20 h 53 m	Show
This is the monster of all situational edges. The Clippers last played on Monday. They are going for a playoff spot and are rested and ready. The Thunder are playing for the fifth time in seven days and just had to play a late night overtime road game against the Trail Blazers on Thursday in which they won. Until beating Portland, the Thunder had failed to cover in their last eight games.
03-08-19	Nuggets v. Warriors -6		105-122	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
When the Warriors are at full strength and really want a game, no opponent can beat them. That's the way I see this matchup. Klay Thompson is back for Golden State after missing the past two games with a sore knee. Golden State is home, has been idle since Tuesday and its next game is against the Suns at home on Sunday, which should be an easy victory. So the Warriors should be fully focused. The Warriors lead the Nuggets by only one game for the No. 1 seed in the West. Golden State also has had two full days to stew about its last game, an embarrassing 33-point home loss to the Celtics. Denver is for real this season. However, the Nuggets do not play that well on the road. They are 16-15 SU, 13-18 ATS on the season in away games. They are 4-7 ATS during their last 11 away matchups with straight-up losses to the Suns and Nets during this span.
03-08-19	St. Joe's +12 v. VCU		63-75	Push	0	12 h 54 m	Show
This is a letdown spot for Virginia Commnwealth, which just clinched the Atlantic-10 regular season title by burying George Mason, 71-36, on Tuesday. St. Joe's has been competitive. The Hawks are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last seven games. They have the conference's leading scorer, Charie Brown Jr. The Hawks have covered eight of the last nine times versus the Rams and are 6-0 ATS during their past six visits to VCU.
03-08-19	Jets +149 v. Hurricanes		8-1	Win	149	9 h 12 m	Show
Going with the value here. Winnipeg is the sixth-highest scoring team in the league. They are averaging four goals per game during their last four games. The Jets have won the past four times when priced in this underdog range. The Jets have enjoyed previous success when playing at Carolina winning in six of their past eight visits.
03-07-19	Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 233		129-121	Loss	-106	13 h 21 m	Show
Expect the Thunder to play better defense after they surrendered 131 points to the Timberwolves in their last game two days ago. Paul George is back for Oklahoma City. That is a double-edge sword for the total as George is strong on both ends of the court. He still could be rusty, though, after shooting just 8-of-25 versus Minnesota in his first game back from a three-game absence caused by a shoulder injury. The Thunder have gone Under the past five times when giving up triple digits in their past game. Portland is home for the first time since finishing a seven-game road trip with an embarrassing 120-111 loss to the Grizzlies on Tuesday. The Trail Blazers' intensity should be up, too, especially with triple revenge motivation. The Under has cashed in four the past five meetings between the two teams.
03-07-19	Blues v. Kings +130	Top	4-0	Loss	-100	20 h 45 m	Show
The Blues are coming off an improbable 5-4 road win against Anaheim Wednesday night scoring twice in the final 1:04 seconds to pull out the victory. That win pushed their playoff spot lead to six points and sets up a flat spot in this matchup. The Kings are rested and ready having been home for the past week. They are 2-0 versus the Blues this season and have owned St. Louis at home winning 13 of the last 16 times in LA. The Blues aren't likely to start rookie goalie sensation Jordan Binnington in net either after he played Wednesday. Jordan Allen is the probable goalie for St. Louis. The Blues are 0-2 the past two times Allen has been in net.
03-07-19	Sabres v. Blackhawks OVER 7		4-5	Win	106	6 h 56 m	Show
OK, we knew the 7's were coming on Blackhawk totals. But I'm not convinced it's still enough of a stop sign. No team plays Overs like the Blackhawks do with their combination of up-tempo, attacking offense and lack of defense. This has resulted in 15 straight Over the total games for the Blackhawks and 21 Overs in their last 22 games. I've got to keep riding that boat. This is especially so against the Sabres, who are back playing high-scoring games. The Over has cashed in Buffalo's past six games. The Sabres are allowing 4.4 goals in their last five games. The Over is 18-7-1 in Buffalo's last 26 games. The Over also is 4-1 the past five times these two teams have met. This includes the last meeting, which was on Feb. 1. The Blackhawks won that game, 7-3.
03-07-19	Indiana +2 v. Illinois		92-74	Win	100	6 h 55 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Indiana's record. The Hooisers have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country as rated by KenPom.com. They have beaten a number of powerhouses, including Wisconsin and Michigan State during their past two games. It's a plus for the Hooisers that big man De'Ron Davis is expected to play after a bout with the flu. Illinois is going the other direction after peaking in mid-season. The Illini is 1-3 in their last four games. They have scored 63 or fewer points in three of their last five games. The Hooisers have covered six of the last seven in the series and are 4-0-1 ATS the past five times playing at Illinois.
03-07-19	Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 131.5		77-55	Loss	-115	10 h 19 m	Show
Note this is a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament matchup and is being held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge arena notorious for its poor shooting backdrop. Valparaiso has played four consecutive Under games. The Crusaders are averaging just 53.2 points in their last four games. The Under is 20-8 in the Crusaders' past 28 conference matchups. Indiana State is much better on defense. The Sycamores have a premier shot blocker in Emondre Rickman. However, the Sycamores average fewer than 70 points a game.
03-07-19	Blue Jackets v. Penguins OVER 6.5		0-3	Loss	-130	4 h 29 m	Show
It's no stretch to envision each of these teams scoring three goals apiece. Pittsburgh has scored three or more goals in 11 of its last 12 games. The Blue Jackets managed a 2-1 victory against the Devils in their last game two days ago. But they had allowed 17 goals during their previous four games. Look for the Blue Jackets' recent trade deadline acquistions to start stepping up their offensive performances.
03-06-19	Maple Leafs v. Canucks OVER 6.5		2-3	Loss	-105	11 h 3 m	Show
I'm envisioning a high-tempo, fast paced, raucous game here with plenty of scoring. The Maple Leafs have gone Over in each of their last six games. Their offense is really clicking as they have scored five or more goals in five of those games. Toronto should receive plenty of fan support with this game in Western Canada where the Leafs are popular. Vancouver is due to start scoring more. The Canucks are in stop-the-pain mode having lost six of their last seven, including the past three. They need their offense, which is capable, to bust out. The Canucks aren't going to win by playing conservative having allowed at least three goals in all but two of their past 13 games.
03-06-19	Jazz -4 v. Pelicans		114-104	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
Short revenge situations don't happen too often in the NBA. They are even more rare when the better team gets upset at home by blowing a huge lead. But that's what occurred to the Jazz this past Monday. They blew a 17-point lead and fell, 115-112, to New Orleans. Now Utah gets a rematch with New Orleans just two days later. Expect a much different result. The Jazz are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after losing their previous game. They are playing for playoff seeding. The Pelicans are playing for the future. They are returning home fat and happy after four consecutive road games, having won the last three. Donovan Mitchell is reaching superstar status. He had an off-game against the Pelicans missing 16 of 24 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. He has scored 20 or more points in 23 of his last 25 games. Rudy Gobert is the dominant big man with Anthony Davis playing less than half the game these days. Gobert had 19 points and 19 rebounds in the loss to the Pelicans. Davis played just 22 minutes. The Jazz have dominated the Pelicans in New Orleans going 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times, including winning the past five times.
03-06-19	Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic	Top	72-69	Loss	-108	17 h 22 m	Show
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
03-05-19	Canadiens -127 v. Kings	Top	3-1	Win	100	21 h 7 m	Show
Montreal is 6-0 the past six times facing a foe from the Pacific Division. Look for that streak to continue here. The Canadiens are the superior team with 21 more points than the Kings. Montreal was 4-2 in its last six games before suffering a 5-1 home loss to the Penguins on Saturday. The Canadiens should be fresh and ready to begin this West Coast trip. The Kings had lost 10 in a row before defeating the erratic Blackhawks, 6-3, on Saturday. I don't know mind laying a short road price with a focused superior team off a loss against a weaker opponent that is off a satisfying home victory.
03-05-19	Red Wings v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5		3-4	Loss	-110	20 h 33 m	Show
The rebuilding Red Wings don't score much. That's evident in Detroit being held to three or fewer goals in 14 of its last 16 games. The Red Wings are averaging 1.7 goals in their last four games. Colorado is underrated defensively giving up 19 goals in regulation during its last 10 games, an average of 1.9 goals. The Avalanche are off two straight losses, both coming on the road. Now they are home and huge favorites. I see them playing conservatively not wanting to take many chances against an overmatched road opponent.
03-05-19	Utah State v. Colorado State +7	Top	100-96	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
03-05-19	Thunder +2.5 v. Wolves		120-131	Loss	-110	8 h 8 m	Show
It's a huge plus if Paul George can play for Oklahoma City. He has missed the past three games due to shouder soreness. But I like the Thunder as a 'dog even if George doesn't play. The Thunder still are the better team and have double revenge for a pair of close losses to the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City got out of its funk - a four-game losing streak - by coming from 13 points down to beat the Grizzlies, 99-95, at home. The Thunder have three tough road games following this game - Trail Blazers, Clippers and Jazz. So focus shouldn't be an issue. Minnesota has dropped three in a row. I'm far from sold on Timberwolves interim coach Ryan Saunders.
03-05-19	Blue Jackets v. Devils UNDER 6.5		2-1	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
There are certain golden Over the total teams in the NHL. The Devils aren't one of those teams anymore. Ravaged by injuries, the Devils have trouble scoring. They have just eight goals in their last five games. The Blue Jackets are averaging only two goals per game in their past four contests. New Jersey has been getting better goaltending lately. If you discount a 6-3 defeat to the Flyers, the Devils have allowed just four goals in their past three games. The last four in this series have gone Under, too, including both meetings this season. Only once has the Over won during the past 10 times the teams have met in New Jersey.
03-04-19	Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	51-70	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
03-04-19	Maple Leafs v. Flames OVER 6.5		6-2	Win	100	6 h 55 m	Show
These two teams are more than capable of scoring three goals apiece. So as long as the oddsmaker isn't putting up a 7 for the total, I'm going Over. The Maple Leafs have scored five or more goals in four of their last five games. The Over has cashed in each of Toronto's last five games. The Flames are stepping up against a good offense here. Calgary is going to get its share of goals. The Flames are the No. 2 goal scoring team in the NHL and Toronto is dealing with multiple injuries defensively.
03-04-19	Hawks v. Heat -8		113-114	Loss	-110	9 h 8 m	Show
The Hawks are headed to the lottery. So there aren't many letdown spots for them. This is one of those rare situations. The Hawks lost to the Bulls in a crazy four overtime game on Friday. Atlanta got its revenge on Sunday defeating the Bulls, 123-118, in Chicago. It was a chippy game with a lot of intensity. Atlanta achieved that victory without its leading scorer and rebounder, John Collins. He is ill and not expected to play today. The Hawks also are down two other big men with center Miles Plumlee out with a knee injury and power forward Omari Spellman sidelined with an ankle injury. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS following a victory. They also are 2-8 ATS when playing without rest. Both of those angles are at work here. The key, though, is trusting the Heat. Miami has been disappointing this season. Right now the Heat are outside of a playoff spot. The Heat have not played well at home. So can they be trusted? I believe they can for this matchup. The Heat are coming off a 117-88 home victory against the Nets from Saturday. That was Miami's most lopsided victory of the season and should provide some confidence. The Heat have added incentive, too, being in triple revenge mode against the Hawks. Yep, the Hawks are 3-0 versus the Heat this season. If Miami fails to make the postseason it could point to its multiple losses to the lowly Hawks, who have the fifth-worst record in the NBA at 22-42. I'm not expecting Goran Dragic to play. There is a possibility Hassan Whiteside returns to Miami's lineup. Both are game-time decisions. I'm fine laying points if neither plays. The Heat didn't need them when they destroyed the Nets by 29 points. Power forward Kelly Olynyk stepped up scoring 25 points versus the Nets and Bam Adebayo is an underrated backup center.
03-03-19	Blackhawks v. Sharks OVER 6.5		2-5	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
The juice is crazy high, but as long as the oddsmaker doesn't hang a 7 on a Blackhawks total you have to play Over on Chicago especially against this foe. Chicago has played an insane 14 straight Over the total games. The Over has cashed in 21 of the Blackhawks' last 22 games. The Blackhawks are the perfect Over team. They are fast-paced, can score and don't play any defense. The Kings, who rank 30th in scoring, just produced six goals versus the Blackhawks on Saturday. San Jose is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL. The Sharks, however, are giving up 3.5 goals in their last four games. So it's not difficult to project at least three goals apiece for each team.
03-03-19	Magic -6.5 v. Cavs		93-107	Loss	-100	8 h 33 m	Show
Often it's not who you play, but when you play them. That's the case in this matchup. Orlando upset Golden State on Thursday and then came back to knock off the Pacers on the road Saturday night. Those victories moved the Magic into a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This is really heady stuff for Orlando. The Magic have another big game on Tuesday facing the 76ers on the road. But first comes this away matchup versus the lowly Cavaliers. I don't see this being an easy game for Orlando, which is in a major letdown spot. The Cavaliers has a winning record in its last seven games sparked by the return of Kevin Love. Cleveland rested Love on Saturday and were embarrassed at home, 129-93, by the Pistons. Love is slated to play here and the Cavaliers won't lack motivation after laying an egg at home last night. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS following a non-cover and have covered 10 of the past 15 times when playing without rest. The first meeting between the teams was very close with the Magic coming from five points down in the final 40 seconds to pull out a 102-100 home win back in November. Evan Fournier hit a jumper at the buzzer to win the game.
03-03-19	Avalanche -127 v. Ducks		1-2	Loss	-127	3 h 15 m	Show
Look for Colorado to rebound after a tough 4-3 road loss to San Jose. The Avalanche is 5-2 in its last seven games while averaging 4.3 goals during their past six games. The Ducks have lost their last five games. They have been held to one goal or fewer in 11 of their last 16 games. The Avalanche have won 17 of the last 25 times as road chalk.
03-03-19	Marshall +5 v. North Texas	Top	85-82	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
03-02-19	Boise State v. UNLV -2		81-85	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
03-02-19	Bucks v. Jazz -3.5		111-115	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Surprised by this line considering the Bucks have won seven in a row and 19 of their last 21? Don't be. This is the mother of bad spots for Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off a Friday night victory against the Lakers in which they had to rally late to win in a game that was far closer than the 131-120 final indicates. This marks Milwaukee's fourth road game in six days and this one is in high altiutde. The Bucks have a horrible history, too, playing at Salt Lake City. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times they've visited and haven't won there since John Stockton and Karl Malone roamed the court. Utah is playing well, too. The Jazz are 17-6 in their last 23 games and have won three in a row, including defeating the Nuggets, 111-104, on the road Thursday.
03-02-19	Warriors -5 v. 76ers		120-117	Loss	-103	7 h 45 m	Show
Enough is enough. The Warriors aren't going to lose three in a row after getting upset by the Magic and Heat. The 76ers are not in the Warriors' class. They aren't close to their level without Joel Embiid, who remains out. The 76ers also will be without their other rim protector with center Boban Marjanovic out, too. Golden State is in stop-the-pain mode and also has revenge for a home loss suffered to the Warriors. The Warriors will be missing Klay Thompson, but get Andre Iguodala back in the lineup.
03-02-19	Red Wings v. Coyotes OVER 5.5		1-3	Loss	-105	5 h 32 m	Show
Detroit's defense has slipped since mid-February. The Red Wings have surrendered an average of five goals per game during their last six games. The Coyotes have scored three or more goals in each of their last five games. They are averaging 4.3 goals during their past three games. The teams have a strong tendency, too, when playing in Arizona to above the total with the Over winning 71 percent during the previous 26 times.
03-02-19	Devils v. Bruins OVER 6		0-1	Loss	-100	15 h 43 m	Show
Bad defense and bad goaltending are not a good combination. They are why the Devils rank 29th defensively. New Jersey just permitted six goals at home on Friday to the Flyers. The Bruins have the offense to take advantage netting three or more goals in 10 of their past 12 games. Boston's defense, though, could be in for a letdown after a huge 4-1 victory against Tampa Bay on Thursday.
03-02-19	Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 6		4-3	Win	100	5 h 52 m	Show
Carolina has scored 18 goals in its last four games. The Hurricanes have scored three or more goals in 13 of their last 15 games. Florida ranks 28th defensively. The Panthers have surrendered 13 goals in their last three games. Florida, though, has scored 18 goals in its past four games. The Panthers have scored at least three goals during their past eight games. The Over is 4-1-1 the past six times the teams have met in Florida.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
03-02-19	Illinois State v. Southern Illinois OVER 133		63-72	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
Illinois State is averaging 66 points in its last two games. Nothing outstanding about that except the Redbirds have played at a faster tempo. They were averaging 58.4 points during their previous five games. Southern Illinois has picked up its pace, too. The Salukis are coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 98-91 road win versus Evansville. Illinois State ranks seven in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference in scoring defense. The Over has cashed four of the last five times Southern Illinois has hosted Illinois State.
03-02-19	Oilers v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5		4-0	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
Given the early start time and playoff importance of this matchup, I'm expecting a more defensive-minded game than the oddsmaker. The Oilers are not a big scoring team despite having superstar Connor McDavid. Edmonton ranks 25th in scoring. The Oilers have scored two goals or fewer in eight of their last 10 games. The Blue Jackets are breaking in a bunch of new faces. They are usually good for three goals, but not much more having gone 15 of the past 17 games netting four or fewer goals.
03-01-19	Blazers v. Raptors -5	Top	117-119	Loss	-109	19 h 23 m	Show
Kudos to Portland on a great road trip - so far. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 on their road swing following a 99-92 victory against the struggling Celtics on Wednesday. So you can't blame the Trail Blazers if they feel fat and happy right now. Now, though, Portland draws Toronto. The Raptors went 8-1 in February concluding the month with an impressive 118-95 home blowout victory against the Celtics on Tuesday. Toronto is 26-6 at home. The Raptors draw the Trail Blazers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. So the Trail Blazers have a fatigue factor working against them, which isn't helped by swingman Evan Turner and center Enes Kanter not available to play. Portland has lost in its last three visits to Toronto going 1-2 ATS with its losing margin being 11 points. The Raptors have added motivation for this nonconference matchup. They lost 128-122 to Portland on Dec. 14. Point guard Kyle Lowery missed that game.
03-01-19	Capitals -105 v. Islanders	Top	3-1	Win	100	16 h 18 m	Show
The Capitals have a strong record in this type of matchup going 26-12 during their last 38 road games when taking on an opponent with a winning home mark. Washington will be well rested having last played on Tuesday. Not so with the Islanders. They could be emotionally spent after blasting the Maple Leafs, 6-1, in front of a sellout crowd on Thursday in John Tavares' first game versus his former team after signing with the Maple Leafs as a free agent during last summer. Despite that victory against the Leafs, the Islanders are 2-3 in their past five games. The Capitals are 8-4 in their last 12 contests. The Islanders are likely to start backup Thomas Greiss in net after starting goalie Robin Lehner played last night.
02-28-19	Jazz v. Nuggets -6		111-104	Loss	-109	21 h 34 m	Show
Denver owns the best home record in the NBA at 27-4. The Nuggets have covered 71 percent of those games, too, going 22-9 ATS at Pepsi Center. Next up for Denver is Utah, a team it has dominated at home. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU and ATS the past five times hosting the Jazz, including whipping them, 103-88, at Pepsi Center this season. The Jazz are weak on the road at 14-16. The Nuggets have a strong frontcourt with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. Their backcourt is solid with lots of depth due to the return of Gary Harris and Isaiah Thomas. The Nuggets have more scoring weapons and their defense has improved enough to be on par with Utah's. Each team gives up 106 points a game. The Jazz have to play a second straight night in high altitude while the Nuggets were idle Wednesday.
02-28-19	Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara		69-64	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league. Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view.
02-28-19	USC v. UCLA -3		88-93	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
02-28-19	Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio		65-64	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
02-28-19	Maple Leafs v. Islanders OVER 5.5		1-6	Win	100	9 h 35 m	Show
There have been at least eight goals scored during the Maple Leafs' past three games. Toronto has scored 17 goals during this past three-game span. Look for the Maple Leafs' offense to trump the Islanders' defense. The Islanders have scored at least three goals in four of their last six games. New York draws Toronto backup goalie Garret Sparks for this matchup. The Over has cashed in 10 of Toronto's last 12 visits against the Islanders.