The Lions rank last in the NFL in points allowed giving up 30.6 a game. The Packers' offense is ready to explode after consecutive road games against the Broncos and Panthers. 

Now the Packers get their perfect patsy in the Lions. Detroit's defense has not been able to overcome the loss of linebacker DeAndre Levy and defection of lineman Ndamukong Suh. Without those two, the Lions don't have a single above average defender. 
Green Bay can take advantage being back at home especially with the obvious move to install James Starks as the primary runner ahead of ineffective Eddie Lacy. Starks also is a much better target out of the backfield than Lacy. 
The Lions' offense has underachieved. It should be better coming out of a bye. The Packers are banged-up in the secondary and some of their statistics are skewed by playing a number of weak offenses. It was just two years ago the Lions put up 40 points on the Packers, although that came in Detroit. 
The over has cashed five of the last six times the Packers have played in division and five of the past six times the Packers lost the previous week. 

The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week.
The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything.
This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes.
Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. 
Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. 
The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys. 

I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. 
Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. 
The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. 
Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones.  I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.

Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. 
I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. 
The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. 
Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. 
Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. 
Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk. 

DePaul has failed to cover in its last six non-conference games. I see that trend continuing here.
Western Michigan has had three consecutive 20-win seasons. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the MAC. DePaul is one of the three worst teams in the Big East. 
The line is higher than it should be because Connar Tava, the Broncos' best returning player, is out with a broken foot. But the Broncos have been practicing for weeks without him.
Western Michigan still has enough depth, athleticism and flexibility with a deep roster to overcome Tava's loss. 

California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice.
The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. 
Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup.
Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.  

Early money has come on Texas and it's smart money. New coach Shaka Smart is a great fit for the Longhorns with his trapping, full-court pressure style. 

Washington is vulnerable to it starting four freshmen. The Huskies are in transition after losing eight players and an assistant coach during the off-season following 15 losses in their last 20 games of the season. 

The Rockets are a bunch of talented head cases. So far they are underachieving at 4-4. But this spot and a correction in their outside shooting makes them worth backing here. 
Houston was stunned by the Nuggets in its opening home loss losing by 20 points. The Rockets may have got caught peeking ahead to this huge revenge spot in their last game when they were upset by the Nets at home, 106-98, this past Wednesday. 
The Rockets rely on James Harden and hitting their 3-point shots. The Rockets made 34.8 percent of their 3-point shots last season. This season they are making just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc. Denver ranks 24th in 3-point defense allowing opponents to make 36.8 percent. That total goes up to 41.1 if you count the Nuggets' last six games. 
The Nuggets heavily rely on turnover-prone rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. The Rockets hold a strong backcourt edge with James Harden while Dwight Howard has looked better each game giving the Rockets an inside force. The Nuggets could be thin again in the backcourt if veteran backup point guard Jameer Nelson has to miss a third straight game because of a lower back injury. 
Before losing to the Nuggets, the Rockets had covered the past four times they played Denver. 

Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. 
Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. 
This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. 
Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. 
Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. 
The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. 
Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game. 

The Clippers are several levels higher than the Suns. But the line is short here because the Suns have been idle since Sunday and the Clippers are 1-3 in their last four games and playing without rest after losing, 118-108, on the road to Dallas last night.
The Clippers' negatives can be explained. 
Let's start five games ago when the Clippers hosted the Suns 10 days ago. LA won, 102-96, for its eighth consecutive victory in the series. Once again the Suns didn't have an answer for Blake Griffin, who is averaging 26.4 points while shooting 58.6 percent during the Clippers' eight game winning streak versus Phoenix. 
Since then the Clippers have played a brutal schedule of Golden State, Houston, Memphis and aroused Dallas, which was fired up because of being spurred during the off-season by DeAndre Jordan. The Mavericks played their finest game of the season against the Clippers. 
Now the Clippers step down in class. Phoenix is struggling, too, losing three of its last four. The Suns haven't played the caliber of opponent the Clippers have either. 
The spot is favorable to Phoenix, although this early in the season having too much time off keeps you from establishing a rhythm. The Clippers' fatigue factor, though, is negated by their strong bench.
The Clippers' reserves outscored the Suns bench, 41-29, in their earlier win this season. The Clippers' main bench players - Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson - are all starter quality. They are far superior to Phoenix's reserves. The Suns also have yet to find a way to stop Griffin. 

Not only are the Spurs far superior to the Trail Blazers, but the schedule lays out for them. The Spurs last played on Monday and won't play again until Saturday when they host lowly Philadelphia.
So the Spurs should be holding nothing back. In fact, this is a special game for them because it marks LaMarcus Aldridge's return to Portland. The Spurs will want to do all they can to make Aldridge look good against his former team.
The Spurs have the frontcourt advantages and depth to beat the Trail Blazers by double digits. 
San Antonio has covered six of its last eight road games. The Trail Blazers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record.

The Kings are a much better team with DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup. Cousins is back after missing four games. 
Sacramento is just 1-7, but has played a murderous schedule. The Lakers were the only easy opponent the Kings have had so far. 
The Kings should be fired up after an emotional team meeting on Tuesday. They draw a Pistons squad playing their third road game in four days and fourth road game in six days. 
Andre Drummond and point guard Reggie Jackson are the Pistons' key players. Drummond is off to a monster start, but can be neutralized by Cousins. Jackson is dealing with a bruised thigh. The Pistons are short-handed at point guard behind Jackson with Brandon Jennings out. 
Detroit has been a nice early-season surprise going 5-2, but the Kings have better talent than perceived and are in a favorable spot and situation. 

The Bucks are without Michael Carter-Williams and O.J. Mayo. They also will be missing Jabari Parker, who is sitting this game out after playing last night. 
Milwaukee is struggling and has lost by 8 or more points during each of its last four visits to Denver.
The Bucks not only have been playing terrible defense, but scoring just 91.8 points a game during their last four games while shooting 42.4 percent. 
The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games versus Western Conference foes. 
The Nuggets beat Portland at home two nights ago in their last game. The Nuggets also own a blowout victory against the Rockets, so they are capable. 

This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. 
The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. 
Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. 
The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. 
The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. 
That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. 
Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week! 

Desperate, revenge, overdue. Any of those words fit the Pelicans' situation for tonight. 

New Orleans is 0-6. It's the Pelicans' worst start in 11 years. Now New Orleans hosts Dallas. The Pelicans just lost 107-98 to the Mavericks in Dallas this past Saturday. It's a short turnabout revenge spot. 

The Pelicans were missing Jrue Holiday, who is working his way back from a leg injury. He should play today. New Orleans has too much talent to stay winless with Anthony Davis, Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Davis is unquestionably the best big man in the game averaging 25.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks.

The Mavericks are in similar to the Pelicans in that some of their key veterans are rounding into shape coming back from injuries. They had a lot of players miss training camp and being on minutes restrictions. It's taking time for the Mavericks, with a bunch of new faces, to get acclimated. 

Dallas is down this season. The Mavericks are not the playoff caliber squad of past seasons. The Mavericks also have a huge look-ahead game as they host the Clippers on Wednesday. That's their home grudge match game of the year after the Clippers stole free agent DeAndre Jordan from them after Jordan gave his word he'd sign with Dallas. 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for New Orleans. The Pelicans' next three games are on the road starting Wednesday at Atlanta where they will be heavy underdogs. 

Both offenses are in good form. Toledo is averaging 44.7 points in its last four games. Central Michigan is averaging 40 points during its last two home games. Those matchups were against Buffalo and Northern Illinois. 

Toledo has a strong rushing attack headed by a now healthy Kareem Hunt, probably the Mid-American Conference's top running back. The Rockets have rushed for 238 or more yards in each of their last five games. They have excellent running back depth behind Hunt.
Central Michigan allowed both Western Michigan and Northern Illinois to each rush for more than 200 yards against them. 
The Chippewas' strength is quarterback Cooper Rush and a deep set of wider receivers. Central Michigan averages nearly 300 yards passing per game. Rush is completing 69 percent of his throws with just eight interceptions in 335 attempts. He has 14 touchdown passes in his last five games. 
The Rockets have surrendered six touchdown passes in their last two games. Northern Illinois averaged 17.3 yards per pass completion in knocking off Toledo last week. The Rockets have faced a number of weak passing offenses in the conference. So I see their secondary being quite vulnerable to Rush. 
Note that the winning team in this series has scored at least 38 points during each of the previous six games.

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. 
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. 
It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. 
The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. 
Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. 
So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved. 

Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. 
Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. 
The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. 
Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games.
Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games. 

This isn't an overreaction to the Giants surrendering 52 points and 608 yards to the Saints last week. The Giants defense is real bad. There is no pass rush with only nine sacks in eight games. The linebackers are slow and the safeties are extremely shaky. 
Jameis Winston is improving each game helped by a solid 1-2 running punch of Doug Martin and Charles Sims. The Buccaneers are averaging 28.5 points in their last four games. 
The Giants' offense has improved, too, under second-year offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Giants rank fifth in scoring at 26.9 points a game. Eli Manning has thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes in the NFL with 17. Tampa Bay has surrendered 17 touchdown throws with just four interceptions. 
The Buccaneers are giving up the fifth-most points per game in the NFL at 28.4. 

Atlanta is much improved defensively under Dan Quinn. The Falcons have been fortunate, though, to draw a number of terrible quarterbacks.
That streak continues in this game with the worst of the worst - Blaine Gabbert. He would be terrible if had weapons, but the 49ers have nothing surrounding him. Gabbert has a career completion rate of just 53.2 percent with a 5.6 yards per average. 
San Francisco is down to its fourth-string running back. Vernon Davis is gone. Anquan Boldin is battling a hamstring injury and likely will be held out with the 49ers having a bye next week. The 49ers' offensive line has played terrible, too. 
The 49ers have been very good defensively at home holding four foes to an average of 15 points a game. Levi's Stadium is notorious for its slippery, slow grass surface. So that's a disadvantage for the Falcons, who play on carpet inside a dome. 
Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones are having big years for Atlanta. However, Matt Ryan has been mediocre. He's already committed 10 turnovers. 

First off, Tampa Bay can't win at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 in their last 12 at Raymond James Stadium, 3-9 ATS.
Tampa Bay is giving up an average of 37.3 points in three home games this season. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are red-hot. The Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.4 points a game. They have allowed 17 touchdown passes. 
The Giants were torched last week by Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is not Drew Brees. He's a rookie who is going to be without two of his three top wide receivers with Vincent Jackson not likely to play and Louis Murphy out. He may not have tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins either.
The Giants are the better team with the better quarterback. The Buccaneers are somewhat improved, but don't know how to win. They are 2-9 under Lovie Smith in games decided by six points or less. 

The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. 

But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. 
New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team.
Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. 
Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. 
LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. 
New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year.
There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team. 


 

Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh.
The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games.
Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams.
Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one.
Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. 
At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode. 

Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey. 

Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2. 

Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring. 

The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.

The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change. 

No pun intended, but the Buckeyes are in a "Kill' spot here. A big factor why is Minnesota having little left in the tank after an emotional home game last week against Michigan. That was the Gophers' first game following Jerry Kill's resignation due to health reasons.
The Gophers gave everything they had as double-digit 'dogs, but lost 29-26. The Gophers had driven all the way to Michigan's 1-yard line at the end of the game, but were stuffed and didn't execute good clock management. 
Now the physical and emotionally-spent Gophers go on the road against the top team in the nation. Making matters worse for Minnesota is that Ohio State is rested after being idle last week. Urban Meyer teams are 15-4-1 ATS off a bye, 7-2 ATS the past nine times.  
Ohio State is 22-1 since last season. They have won the statistics battle in every one of those 23 games. 
J.T. Barrett is suspended, but I see no drop-off in quarterbacks for the Buckeyes with Cardale Jones. He's a monster upgrade on Minnesota's Mitch Leidner, one of my least favorite quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Leidner has only two more touchdowns than interceptions. Ohio State backup quarterback Braxton Miller is far better than Leidner. 
It's not just Jones. The Buckeyes are loaded everywhere, including running back where Ezekiel Elliott leads the Big Ten in rushing and has rushed for triple digits in his last 13 games. 

I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.

UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. 
The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. 
Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. 
The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. 
This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times. 

While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play.  
So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight. 

Utah State has a strong balanced offense that keeps getting better. The Aggies have scored 52 or more points in three of their last four games. They have gone over the total in each of their last six games. 
New Mexico's defense is surrendering an average of 32 points since Week 2 when it started facing Division I opponents. 
The Lobos, though, rank 12th in the nation in rushing at 252.2 yards per game. The Aggies have been weak versus the run lately allowing their last two foes - San Diego State and Wyoming, minus its starting quarterback, - to rush for more than 300 yards per game while averaging 5.5 yards per run. New Mexico averages 5.3 yards per rush. 
Note, too, that the Lobos have gone over in five of their last six home contests. 

I like Washington State's quarterback and pass defense better than Arizona State's. That's where I see the game being decided.
This is a triple revenge game for the Cougars, who have covered in their last five Pac-12 games. They nearly upset Stanford last week as a 10-point 'dog losing, 30-28. The Cougars are a win away from being bowl eligible, which is huge for them.
The Sun Devils are off a draining and heart-breaking 61-55 loss to Oregon in triple overtime last week. 
Washington State leads the Pac-12 in passing and ranks third in the nation behind Luke Falk.
Arizona State hasn't played well defensively this season. The Sun Devils rank last in the conference in pass defense and 101st overall. Washington State's pass defense, on the other hand, is No. 1 in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games. 

Notre Dame got past Temple, 24-20, in a physical road matchup last week. Now the Irish get a physical Pittsburgh team coached by Pat Narduzzi. He was Michigan State's highly respected defensive coordinator and knows the Irish well. 
Pittsburgh has played Notre Dame very tough. The Panthers won the last meeting, 28-21, at home two years ago. The Panthers also covered against the Irish in 2011 and 2012 losing each of those games by three points. 
Notre Dame is 8-13 ATS during its last 21 road contests. 
The Irish have been riding backup quarterback DeShone Kaiser. He's played well for the most part, but doesn't always make wise decisions. 
Pitt has gotten steady play from junior quarterback Nathan Peterman, who has completed close to 68 percent of his throws and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Panthers also have one of the best wide receivers in the nation, Tyler Boyd. He's just 49 yards away from holding Pitt's school record for receiving yards. 

This is my Total of the Week.

BYU is rolling with a four-game winning streak. The Cougars are averaging 45.7 points during this span. Freshman Tanner Mangum has proven to be an able replacement for injured starting quarterback Tayson Hill. 
The Cougars have several decent running backs to support Hill and could get senior Adam Hind back for this game. 
San Jose State also has showed well offensively is most of their games. The Spartans' starting offensive line has been intact all season and senior Tyler Ervin is one of the top playmakers in the country ranking third in rushing with 1,159 yards and has another 232 yards receiving. 
The Spartans were idle last week. They have gone over the total six of the last seven times following a bye. 

It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors.
Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. 
The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. 
Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. 
The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. 
This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of. 

This is the lowest SMU total of the season - and it gets me involved. The Mustangs have a good quarterback, Matt Davis, and are averaging nearly 30 points a game.

But their defense is terrible ranking near the bottom in all the major categories. The Mustangs are giving up 43.6 points per game. 

These teams met two years ago and there were a combined 108 points scored. Temple is stepping way down in class and has put up a lot of points on better defenses than the Mustangs. 

Portland is breaking in four new starters, has a weak bench and carries a heavy fatigue rating playing for the fifth time in seven days. 

The Trail Blazers are in a letdown spot, too, after a 108-92 road upset win against Utah last night. 
The physical Grizzlies are one of the toughest opponents to face when tired. They have owned Portland winning 13 of the past 15 matchups, including six of the last eight in Portland. Those Trail Blazers teams were much stronger than this current one. 
Memphis was embarrassed by Golden State on Monday losing by 50 points. The Grizzlies got on track two nights ago winning by 14 against the Kings. 
While Portland has regressed, Memphis still is the same team it has been the last few years - one of the best defensive teams in the league and an elite club. 

I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. 
Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. 
The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown.
I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week. 

Sacramento was rusty and minus DeMarcus Cousins when it lost, 103-89, to Memphis last night. The timing wasn't good for the Kings. They had been idle since Saturday, while the Grizzlies were super fired-up having been embarrassed by 50 points by Golden State on Monday night. 
Cousins is going to miss this game, too. But the Kings fortified their frontcourt during the offseason and have had a game now to adjust to Cousins' absence. Sacramento is better in non-pressure type spots, which this matchup is. 
Phoenix does not have an imposing frontcourt. The Kings have matched up well to the Suns winning three of four last season. Sacramento also is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Phoenix and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times when playing without rest. 
The Suns' strength is their backcourt. The Kings' backcourt can match them. Rajon Rondo has been playing well this season. So has Darren Collison. The Kings face a much shorter, less physical and much worse defensive team in the Suns than they did last night against the Grizzlies. 

The Nets won't be lacking for motivation. The Hawks eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs last season. Brooklyn played Atlanta tough in that series taking the heavily favored Hawks to six games while covering four times. 
Atlanta isn't sneaking up on teams like last season. The Hawks also aren't as good as last season having lost DeMarre Carroll. Atlanta, though, is off an impressive 98-92 road win against the hot Heat. 
That not only means a letdown for the Hawks here knowing they are playing a weak opponent, but also puts into play the real possibility of Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer resting starters since it's a back-to-back spot. This is something Budenholzer did a lot last season in emulating his mentor Gregg Poppovich. Budenholzer was an assistant to Popovich at San Antonio from 1996-2013. 
This is a perfect opportunity for Budenholzer to do this since the Hawks are facing a weak foe and playing for the fifth time in seven days and third in four days. 
There still is the matter of the 0-4 Nets playing well enough to cover. They certainly haven't looked good in getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. 
But I trust Lionel Hollins to have the Nets ready for this matchup. Big man Brook Lopez is playing well and the Nets are due to shoot better, especially from 3-point range where normally reliable Joe Johnson has missed nine of 12 from the arc and has been in a scoring slump averaging fewer than 10 points per game. 

The Wizards finally proved they could beat the Spurs, winning 101-93 at home last Jan. 13. That ended a 17-game losing streak to San Antonio. 
Now Washington hosts San Antonio again - and I like the Wizards' chances. The timing is good for the Wizards catching the Spurs this early in the season and playing on the road for the third time in four days. 
San Antonio is in transition right now. Roles have changed. There's an adjustment period going on with star newcomer LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs aren't a cohesive unit yet. Far from it. However, they've been fortunate to have played the Nets, Celtics and Knicks so they are on a three-game winning streak. 
Now the Spurs are in a step-up situation. The Wizards should be ready. They have been idle since Saturday when they played horrible defense in a 117-110 home loss to the Knicks. The Wizards are itching to get back on the court to redeem themselves and now have the confidence knowing they beat the Spurs the last time they hosted them. 
The Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the league with John Wall and Bradley Beal, who is very underrated. Marcin Gortat is an underrated big man. 

It's difficult to come back on the Grizzlies after they lost by 50 points to the Warriors last night to begin their season-long five-game, nine-day road trip.
The only plus that can be taken from that humiliation for the Grizzlies is that none of their starters played more than 26 minutes. 
I see the prideful, veteran Grizzlies coming back fired-up to take their frustrations out on perennial bottom-feeder Sacramento. The Kings will be without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings went 6-17 without Cousins last season. 
Cousins, the Kings' leading scorer and rebounder, suffered a sore right Achilles' tendon injury during Saturday's loss to the Clippers. 
The Kings have been idle since then, but that's actually too much time off for this early in the season. So I see the Kings not only missing their key player but also being rusty.
The Grizzlies can't take another loss here on this road trip. The Grizzlies' next four games are at Portland - which is down but remains tough at home - at Utah, at the unbeaten Clippers and then home to the unbeaten Warriors. 
Sacramento can't match Memphis' defense nor stay with the Grizzlies on the boards, especially minus Cousins, plus the Kings aren't strong mentally. 

Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. 
The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog.  
Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. 
The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. 
The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings. 

 Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. 

The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. 

The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. 

Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable. 

The Thunder are 3-0. The Rockets are 0-3. The records are what they are.
Oklahoma City has looked great with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka back in the lineup. The Thunder are coming out firing after last season's 3-12 opening that they never could recover from. Durant is averaging 30 points. 
The Rockets have been just the opposite shooting 37.1 percent from the field and averaging 88.7 points in blowout losses to the Nuggets, Warriors and Heat. James Harden hasn't adjusted to new point guard Ty Lawson yet. Harden is shooting 22 percent from the field and the Rockets are averaging 17 turnovers a game.
Dwight Howard is set to play, but he's going to be rusty having played once in the last three weeks. The Rockets aren't likely to have big man Terrence Jones while the Thunder upgraded their frontcourt with Enes Kanter. 
Oklahoma City played yesterday, but were able to rest its starters during the fourth quarter in a 117-93 blowout of Denver. Durant logged less than 28 minutes. The Thunder is 13-6 ATS following a victory. 
Houston has had problems since preseason and they haven't gone away. The Rockets have lost all of their games by 20 points. The latest coming yesterday at Miami. Their first two defeats were at home to Denver and Golden State. Harden played 39 minutes on Sunday. 
So right now this spread is way too short. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

Edmonton is trying to clinch the Western Division. But the Eskimos are going to have problems doing that against Montreal.
The Alouettes are a desperate team trying to keep their prideful streak of making the playoffs a 20th consecutive year. They are in must-win mode.
Montreal looked good last week defeating Toronto, 34-2. That was the Argonauts' worst home loss since 2004. 
The Alouettes are giving up 16.3 points per game during their last three games. Now they're getting a boost on offense from quarterback Kevin Glenn, who will be playing in his third game for Montreal. 
Edmonton hasn't been impressive during the past month going 2-3 ATS. The Eskimos did defeat Saskatchewan by 11 laying nine points last week.
But In their previous four games, the Eskimos won by six laying 11 to British Columbia, won by a point giving six to Winnipeg, won by four against Calgary and won by three in overtime against British Columbia laying nine. 
Edmonton edged Montreal by three points in its earlier meeting this season. 

I'm not a fan of Cleveland's skill position players. I regard them as among the weakest in the league. Making matters worse for the Browns is Josh McCown is limited by a sore shoulder. Backup Johnny Manziel has proven to be near worthless disdained so far by many in the Cleveland organization. 
The Cardinals rank fourth in total defense. Only seven teams give up fewer points than Arizona, which has limited opponents to 19 points per game. 
This is a flat spot for the Cardinals, though. They are traveling on a short week. Their bye is next week. They are playing a bad, non-conference opponent. So focus could be a problem. So could fatigue. This marks Arizona's third road matchup in four weeks.  
The Browns' secondary should have back cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. The Cardinals aren't likely to have underrated wide receiver John Brown. 
Look for the Cardinals to run more since Cleveland ranks last in run defense. That's going to keep the clocking moving. 
Weather could factor, too. The forecast is for heavy winds up to 23 mph. 

Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his best performance. Stefon Diggs has upgraded Minnesota's receiving corps and pumped up the offense. The Bears have a weak defense giving up 29.8 points per game, which ranks second-to-last. 
The Bears, though, have become dangerous on offense now that they are finally fully healthy at the skill positions. Alshon Jeffery makes a huge difference. Jay Cutler has a good history at home versus the Vikings throwing 16 touchdown passes against them in six games at Soldier Field. 

Power ratings-wise I have this total rated much higher in a battle of the two best offenses in the Pac-12.
Stanford has really cranked up its offense since Week 1 scoring at least 31 points during each of its past six games. The Cardinal is averaging 47.3 points in their last three games. Washington ranks 90th in points allowed per game at 31 and is 97th in total yards defensively.
The Cougars can pile up the points, too, behind quarterback Luke Falk. They rank No. 2 in the nation in passing. The over has cashed 20 of the last 28 times Washington State has played at home. 

The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though.
Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. 
So why should things be different just five days later?
The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why.  
First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. 
Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. 
Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. 
Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors.
But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time. 

This is a kill spot for Utah after it lost to USC on the road last week.
Not only are the Utes looking to get untracked in a big way, but Oregon State is a beaten up and demoralized team. The Beavers are inexperienced on defense and suffered injuries to their running back and offensive line. They don't have the depth to patch up the holes.
The Beavers have only covered three of their last 20 games and have failed to cover in their last eight road contests. They are 1-10 ATS during their past 11 Pac-12 games.

Florida quarterback Treon Harris looked good in his last game replacing suspended Will Grier. He threw for 217 yards and two scores in a 35-28 road loss to LSU. Harris helped lead the Gators past Georgia in last season's game, 38-20.

Kelvin Taylor gives Florida a respected runner and the Gators are deep at tight end. Taylor gashed Georgia for 197 yards rushing in last year's game. 
On the Georgia side, Sony Michael has filled in nicely for injured Nick Chubb. The Bulldogs have gone over in 15 of their last 22 SEC contests. Expect Georgia to play loose and fast in this one. Also expect some wrinkles as both team's also are off byes.

The Broncos are balanced and have far too many weapons for the Rebels to stop. UNLV only has six sacks on the season. 

UNLV, though, is capable of putting up its share of points especially with quarterback Blake Decker back from a shoulder injury. UNLV is averaging 39.5 points in its last four games and is averaging 213.6 yards on the ground. Boise State has yielded more than 100 yards rushing in its last three games. 
The Broncos can't just concentrate on stopping UNLV's running attack with Decker behind center. 
Boise State has gone over in 20 of its last 28 road games. 

Clemson is sitting at 10-0 having destroyed Miami, 58-0, in its last game and with its biggest game of the season on deck versus Florida State on Nov. 7. 
The Tigers are in an ambush spot - and North Carolina State has the right ingredients and personnel to pull off the feat.
The Wolfpack are 5-2 SU and ATS. They have covered eight of their last 10 games going back to last season. They will be tremendously motivated having lost to Clemson each of the last three seasons, including 41-0 last year on the road. That was the worst loss in Dave Doeren's three years at North Carolina State. 
Clemson has its revenge game of the year on deck versus Florida State. That's the game the Tigers are pointing to not this one. 
The Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in total defense and have a very reliable quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He has a 33-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two seasons. 
Clemson has an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson. But the Wolfpack can play keep away. They rank second in the country in time of possession. 
Note, too, that North Carolina State is dangerous on special teams ranking first in the ACC in kick return yardage and punt return yardage. 

Look for a Suns bounce back after Phoenix was blasted by Dallas, 111-95, two nights ago. 
Portland, on the other hand, looked great in dispatching New Orleans at home, 112-94, this past Wednesday. 
Phoenix isn't that bad, nor is Portland that good. The Trail Blazers, in fact, are going to struggle this season especially on the road. They have four new starters. One is C.J. McCollum, who scored 37 points against the Pelicans. 
McCollum isn't going to be that hot again. The Trail Blazers caught the Pelicans playing on the second of back-to-back nights having just faced the defending world champion Warriors in a huge revenge spot. 
Portland has failed to cover in six of its last eight visits to Phoenix. The Suns are going to have their intensity up not only for being embarrassed at home in their opener, but also because the organization is honoring popular Steve Nash. 
Note, too, that the teams play at Portland on Saturday. So if the Suns break to a big lead, Portland coach Terry Stotts may take it easy in order to set things up on Saturday for his team. 

Everything is in place for a low-scoring Game 3 here. 
Yordano Ventura and Noah Syndergaard are among the top three hardest throwing pitchers in baseball. Both can totally cut loose backed by strong and rested bullpens following Thursday's day off. 
The Mets are in a hitting slump. They've scored five runs and have just 13 hits during 23 innings spanning the first two games of this World Series. Ventura stopped a much stronger hitting team than the Mets during his last appearance holding the Blue Jays to one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings in the decisive Game 6 American League Championship Series. Ventura doesn't have to go deep into the game because of Kansas City's dominant bullpen. 
The Mets have never faced Ventura giving him another edge. 
The Royals, however, are going to have to deal with Syndergaard, who had a 3.24 ERA with 166 strikeouts in 150 innings during the regular season. Syndergaard has been even better in the postseason posting a 2.77 ERA in three playoff games. 
Syndergaard's at his best, too, at home where he posted a 7-2 mark with a 2.46 ERA. The under has cashed in 10 of Syndergaard's last 13 starts at Citi Field. 
There are other key factors that point to an under, too. 
Mike Winters is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has an under bias. During his five years in the majors, the under has cashed 56 percent of the time with a 154-game sampling. 
The weather forecast also is calling for a 10-to-12 mph wind to be blowing in.  

 

Utah closed as one of the hotter teams in the NBA last season going 21-11. The Jazz were the strongest defensive club in the league down that stretch.

The Jazz's priority is to start fast this season. That didn't work out in their first game, a 92-87 road loss to Detroit. Utah plays again on the road in their next game. All together, the Jazz open with a brutal slate of eight of 10 road matchups.

So this game has high priority for Utah. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a different priority. They have a young, short-handed roster - only nine healthy players and an extremely weak bench - and are in rebuilt mode again playing for the future. It was not a surprise the Celtics blew out Philadelphia two nights ago. 

The 76ers could have the worst offense in the league. It's a big concern of their coach, Brett Brown. Utah has won the last five in this series, holding the 76ers to an average of 77 points on 34.6 percent shooting in last season's two victories. 

This is a dangerous, flat spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder were impressive in beating San Antonio, 112-106, at home two nights ago. Up next for the Thunder following this game is a home game on Sunday versus 1-0 Denver followed by a road game against Houston on Monday. 

Orlando has been stockpiling talent for the past couple of seasons and now it's ready to pay dividends. The Magic nearly upset Washington in their opener, losing by one point when John Wall hit a shot with 12 seconds left. Orlando led by eight in the fourth quarter. The Magic nearly beat the Wizards despite missing 21 of 26 shots from 3-point range. 
The Magic have a number of young players poised for breakout seasons - Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton - plus a steady, double-double machine in big man Nik Vucevic. 
The Thunder are going to have to deal with the distraction of Billy Donovan returning to Florida. A more quiet factor is the Magic are much better coached this season with Scott Skiles on the bench. He has a track record of turning around bad teams having done it three times. 

Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. 
Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. 
The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. 
The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. 
The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight. 

Memphis had an off-night last night. But the Grizzlies match up up extremely well to the Pacers, who aren't nearly as tall and physical without Roy Hibbert.
Minus Hibbert, the Pacers are going to have problems in the paint and controlling the boards. Those are the Grizzlies' major strengths. 
The veteran Grizzlies are a prideful team. Their core has been together for years. They were embarrassed last night. 

The Pacers not only are small now, but they have chemistry issues and are getting readjusted to Paul George being back. So the spot is right for Memphis. 

The 76ers' offense is going to be way down early in the season. This is partly due to injuries to Robert Covington, Tony Wroten and Nik Stauskas. 76ers coach Brett Brown admitted his team's offense is going to be terrible admitting that his young team - no player in the rotation above 24 - needs to work more on studying than specific game planning. 
The 76ers and Celtics met in a preseason game this past Friday and there were just 146 points scored. 

Boston is changing its style and has added many new faces. So an adjustment period is in order. But the bottom line here is the 76ers are going to be the worst offensive team in the league and the oddsmaker is giving them to much credit with a total this high.  

Charlotte was impressive during preseason going 7-1. The Hornets traditionally are good in an underdog role. They have a healthy Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Those two missed a combined 37 games last season. 
The Hornets also upgraded their roster adding Nicolas Batum, an excellent two-way player, Jeremy Lin to upgrade their point guard depth and adding muscle up front with Spencer Hawes and Tyler Hansbrough. 
The Heat have star power, but Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng are past their peaks. All were banged-up last season. The Heat weren't able to develop much chemistry during preseason due to minor injuries and key veterans being rested. Goran Dragic also is still trying to fit in. 
The spot is ripe for the Hornets to steal a game here, or at least certainly keep things close. 

The Jazz open their season tonight. Utah was one of the better teams after the All-Star break going 19-10. The Jazz put up the best defensive statistics in the league during that span. 
Detroit played last night. But it's not the second game in two days factor why I'm fading the Pistons. Their legs are fresh this early in the season. It's the Pistons coming off a hugely satisfying 106-94 upset road win against Atlanta last night. 
The Pistons aren't good enough or mature enough to handle a victory like that without suffering a letdown even returning to Detroit to play in their home opener. I also believe the Jazz are the better team. They certainly were down the stretch last season. 
Utah has to play eight of its first 10 games on the road. It's the toughest opening schedule of any team. The Jazz can't afford to start off losing to the Pistons, a team they have beaten 18 of the last 21 times. Utah has covered in nine of its last 10 road games against the Pistons. 

The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too.
It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr.
Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. 
Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. 
Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy. 

This is a good spot for Chicago in Fred Hoiberg's coaching debut. The Bulls are home and in revenge mode after the Cavaliers beat them in six games during the Eastern Conference semifinals last season.
Chicago has improved its depth. The Bulls are the only team in the league that goes 11-12 deep. Derrick Rose is going to start. 
LeBron James also is going to start for Cleveland, but the Cavaliers will be extremely cautious with him. James was deactivated in preseason dealing with a back injury. 
The Cavaliers won't have Kyrie Irving and Ian Shumpert, who is their top perimeter defender. Center Timofey Mozgov may not play either because of knee soreness. 
Then the Cavaliers have rust. Kevin Love is recovering from shoulder surgery. He shot just 33 percent from the floor in preseason. Anderson Varejao is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear and Tristain Thompson is rusty having not played since June missing training camp and preseason. 
The Bulls have the front line talent and superior bench to take advantage.

Chip Kelly's high-tempo offense finally is picking up. So is DeMarco Murray, who has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and ran for 112 yards last week. Philadelphia is averaging 28.6 points in its last three games. The Eagles also have dangerous kick and punt returners so they are live, too, to score on special teams. 
Only one team runs plays at a faster pace than the Eagles. The Eagles have played five games against NFC South Division teams during the Kelly era and the combined points have never been below 50. The average total in these games is 54.6. 
The Eagles and Panthers met last year and Philly won, 45-21, at home. 
The Panthers have an underrated offense. Cam Newton is having a huge season. Greg Olsen is a top-five tight end. The Panthers showed how strong their offense is when they scored two touchdowns at Seattle during the final four minutes to pull out a victory last week. The Panthers are averaging even more points per game than the Eagles during their last three games - 30 a game. 
Newton can take advantage of the Eagles' cluster injury problem at linebacker where Kiko Alonso and Mychael Kendricks are out and DeMeco Ryans is questionable with a hamstring injury. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

The Saints have the worst defense in the league and are on the road. Not a good combination.
Chuck Pagano isn't the sharpest coach around that's for sure. But the Colts do play hard for him. They have a great track when playing bad teams - 19-4 ATS versus foes under .500. Indianapolis also is 17-3 ATS following a loss.
Andrew Luck showed enough against the Patriots that he's past his shoulder injuries.  to be trusted to put up a lot of points, especially against this opponent. Luck is 21-7 at home compared to 16-14 when on the road. 
Luck should light up a Saints secondary that has permitted 11 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions and is allowing 8.6 yards per pass.  

Now that the pressure is off them, the Chiefs will play loose and win. They are better than their record having already lost to three unbeaten teams and blowing a game against the Bears over the shock of seeing Jamaal Charles suffer a season-ending injury.
The Chiefs have loyal fans and they will play hard here to reward them. It's a huge help for Kansas City's offense that Jeremy Maclin has been cleared to play. 
But the biggest factor in this handicap is the strong belief that Landry Jones is going to be Pittsburgh's starting quarterback. He's one of the worst backups in the league. He's actually a third-stringer, but Michael Vick is hurt and won't play. Ben Roethlisberger still is a week away. 
Before last week, Jones had never played in a regular season game. His statistics from last week against the Cardinals at home look good, but they are highly misleading. Martavius Bryant turned an eight-yard pass into an 88-yard touchdown.
Now Jones has to make his first start - and it comes in a very difficult road setting. Kansas City can bring a lot of heat from the edges with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.  

Miami got a boost with a new head coach and defensive coordinator last week steamrolling Tennessee. But the Dolphins are as mediocre as Houston and the Texans will be far better prepared now that they have film on what the Dolphins did under interim coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. 
The Dolphins are in a flat spot. They were super pumped for their first game under new leadership last week. Up next following this game for Miami is a Thursday matchup versus New England. 
The Dolphins have failed to cover in their last five home games, losing four of them straight-up.
Houston's DeAndre Hopkins is making a case of being the best wide receiver in football. The Dolphins are thin in the secondary. Cornerback Brice McCain is unlikely to play and Brent Grimes, Miami's other corner, is less than 100 percent because of a knee injury. 
The Texans are getting better now that Arian Foster is close to 100 percent and Brian Hoyer is back entrenched at quarterback. Those two are massive upgrades on Ryan Mallet and Alfred Blue. 

Utah is in its fifth year in the Pac-12 and can play with the big boys. The Utes are 6-0 and it's a strong 6-0. They are the only team in the Pac-12 South without a loss. 
The Utes beat the Trojans last season, 24-21, and they are in great shape to do it again Saturday. Not only are the Utes a well-rounded power, but they catch USC in disarray. 
The Trojans have talent, like always, but they have under performed and been mismanaged. They are still cleaning up the Steve Sarkisian mess. 
Utah can match USC at the key skill position spots with quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devontae Booker, who ranks 10th nationally in rushing averaging 130.5 yards per game. 

These two teams have picked up their offenses. 
Old Dominion defeated Charlotte, 37-34, last week. Florida International fell 42-34 to Middle Tennessee last Saturday. 
Panthers sophomore quarterback Alex McGough is coming on. He's coming off a 260-yard passing performance where he threw 51 times. McGough has passed for 200-or-more yards six times this season. He has 14 touchdown throws on the season, which ranks 18th in the nation. 
Alex Gardner provides a ground threat, too, for the Panthers with 454 yards. He's scored a rushing touchdown in his last three games. He also is a good receiving back. 
Richard Leonard is one of the most dangerous kick returners in the country. He's No. 2 in Panthers' school history in return yardage. 
The teams met last year and there were 73 points scored in a 38-35 win for the Monarchs. 

Western Michigan can almost reach this total alone. The Broncos are averaging 36.7 points and 453.6 yards per game - and that's factoring in having played a brutal non-conference schedule.
Western Michigan has gone against Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State. Those teams entered this week having just one combined loss. 
The Broncos have a top rushing attack that can take advantage of a porous Miami of Ohio defense giving up 36.7 points per game and 453.6 yards. 

San Diego State is playing its finest football limiting its last three opponents to an average of 9.3 points per game. The Aztecs have held opponents to 162.7 yards per game this month, lowest in the FBS for October. 
This is a huge game for both teams. But the timing is great for the Aztecs and not just because they are peaking. They catch Utah State traveling on a short week after the Aggies crushed Boise State, 52-26. That was one of the great victories in Utah State history. It also could mean a letdown this week. 
Utah State's lopsided win against Boise State, though, was a bit misleading. The Aggies converted eight turnovers into 35 points. The yardage was even.  
The Aggies have become even more of a running team with Kent Myers replacing Chuckie Keeton at quarterback. San Diego State has become extremely stingy allowing yards on the ground holding foes to 33.3 yards per game this month, best in the nation, and just 1.2 yards per carry this month. 
The Aztecs have a very good runner, D.J. Pumphrey. He's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last three games. San Diego State does not have a dynamic offense, but it is efficient. The Aztecs have scored on 94 percent of their drives inside the red zone. 

The Blue Jays have the superior offense - having led the league in runs and homers - and the superior starting pitcher going. 

The price, no pun intended, is low enough to back Toronto.
The number is low because Toronto starter David Price is 0-7 lifetime in the playoffs. Yet he has a highly respectable 1.14 ratio. His teams have backed him with barely two runs per game support. 
That won't be the case here with Toronto's offense and facing Yordano Ventura, who has been less than stellar in the playoffs. Ventural has allowed 22 base runners in his last 12 1/3 innings and has a 1.78 WHIP during the postseason.  
Toronto is 5-1 in Price's last 6 road starts. 

Down 3-1 in the American League Championship Series, I don't see the Blue Jays going gently away. 
The Blue Jays lost by 12 runs at home last night. Their embarrassment was compounded by infielder Cliff Pennington pitching in the ninth inning. 
I see Toronto coming back strong against Edinson Volquez. The Blue Jays went 53-28 at home. Only two teams compiled better home records. 
Volquez entered this series with a bad recent playoff record - 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA. Volquez, to his credit, pitched his guts out in Game 1 of the series shutting out the Blue Jays for six innings. He also threw 111 pitches. 
I don't believe Volquez can duplicate that effort. The Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball, ranking first in runs and homers. They are due for a breakout game especially Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who are a combined 6-for-28 in the series. 
The Royals, on the other hand, have been hitting above their heads scoring 33 runs during the first four games of the series. Their key is batting .500 with runners in scoring position. That kind of clutch production can't hold up. 
I have faith in Marco Estrada, a strong strikeout pitcher who beat Houston in Game 1 of the American League Division Series, 5-1. He has a winning record at home with a 2.95 ERA. His ERA drops to 2.74 in day games. 

I want the two hottest players - Jacob deGrom and Daniel Murphy - going for me and laying a short road price isn't too much of a tax to get that. 
The Mets have won 21 of their last 27 away games, while also going 10-1 in deGrom's past 11 road starts. 
The righty won rookie of the year honors last year and deGrom is even better this season. He's been dominant down the stretch striking out 36 in 23 innings while permitting only three runs during his last four starts, two of which occurred in the NLDS. 
Murphy is on fire, too, with five homers and eight RBIs in his last seven games. He's homered in each of the last four games. 
The Cubs have managed only three runs during the first two games of this series. They're throwing Kyle Hendricks, who gave up three homers and couldn't reach the sixth inning during his last start against the Cardinals in the NLDS. Hendricks is several tiers below deGrom. 

Eli Manning is having an elite season, the finest of his 11-year career. The Giants are averaging more than 28 points per game during the last three weeks. They ranked seventh in scoring entering this week. 
Manning has become adept at short, precision passes in the second year of operating offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's offense. This offense is tailor-made to take advantage of the Eagles having a cluster injury problem at linebacker and ranking 26th in pass defense. 
The Eagles offense has come around during the last two weeks averaging 29.5 points during this span. Sam Bradford finally looks comfortable. The Giants rank last in pass defense. They actually made Colin Kaepernick look good last week.
Bradford should be in line for his best game of the season, especially with the crippled Giants defense losing their best cornerback, Prince Amukamara. 
The tempo is going to be high speed. This total is way too low. 

I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts. 
But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games. 
New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. 
The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense. 
Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

The Lions are at low ebb right now. But they finally are in a good spot. 
The Bears are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They've been coached up by John Fox, but are off a surprising road upset victory coming from 14 points down to beat Kansas City and have multiple injuries. This also is the Bears' first dome game. The only other time they were on turf they were shut out by Seattle.
Jimmy Clausen was the Bears' quarterback in that game. Jay Cutler is an upgrade. However, Cutler is turnover-prone and could be missing his three top receivers and his left tackle. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missed last week and may not play Sunday. Martellus Bennett, a very good tight end, may be out, too. 
The Bears are hurting defensively, too. Their most experienced defensive back, Antrel Rolle, is out as is one of their better run defenders, linebacker Shea McClellin. 
The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL. They desperately want to erase that stigma. The LIons have looked bad, but they've had a hard schedule. In their last three games they've played the Broncos, Seahawks on the road and Cardinals. The Bears are playing their second road game in a row and third in four weeks. They have a bye next week. It's a flat spot for them. 
Detroit has the offense to get its frustrations out in a big way. I see Matthew Stafford having his best game of the year. The Bears have intercepted just two passes while giving up 11 touchdowns through the air and 65 percent completions. 
Calvin Johnson manhandled cornerback Kyle Fuller last year in two games catching a combined 17 passes for 249 yards. 

Much credit to the Steelers for upsetting San Diego this past Monday. But I don't see the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger pulling off a second consecutive upset. 
Arizona continues to be underrated and is a good fit against this opponent. The Cardinals have a high-powered passing attack, underrated ground game and an aggressive defense. 
The Steelers have allowed more than 70 percent completions, fourth-worst in the NFL. They are vulnerable to Carson Palmer and once again will be minus their top defensive talent, linebacker Ryan Shazier. 
The Cardinals' offense, good to being win, is upgraded even more with the return to health of Andre Ellington and Michael Floyd. 
The spot is tough on Pittsburgh off a last-play, emotional road win against the Chargers and playing on a short week. 
The Cardinals aren't going to lack motivation. Not with Bruce Arians who had a parting of the ways with the Steelers four years ago. 
Michael Vick is way past his prime. The Cardinals not only lead the NFL in interceptions, but their secondary also has posted the fourth-lowest quarterback rating. Vick is going to have problems figuring out Arizona's defensive schemes. I see him committing a bunch of turnovers. 

This line has come down enough where I'm going to get involved with the Broncos.
Too much of a class difference. Even an aged Peyton Manning can take advantage of a weak Browns run defense and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns throws with only one interception and will be missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson. 
Josh McCown has put up fancy numbers the past three weeks, but he's stepping in against perhaps the best defense in the NFL. 
Denver has a bye next week. A focused Broncos squad should win this matchup by more than a field goal. 

Central Florida has surrendered 116 points in its last three games. Temple has a balanced offense that can take advantage behind quarterback P.J. Walker and running back Jahad Thomas. 
Central Florida has yet to intercept a pass this season. 
The Golden Knights should be better offensively, though, with the return of junior quarterback Justin Holman. He's the type of quarterback who can make big plays, but also commit turnovers which are conducive for over the total. 

Oregon State is outmatched here and can't keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack and star quarterback Luke Falk. 
The Cougars are averaging nearly 400 yards through the air. Falk has thrown 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions. 
Oregon State's pass defense doesn't look bad statistically, but that's because the Beavers rank 111th in run defense. The Cougars have the balance to take advantage. 
Oregon State has failed to cover in its last four away contests. 

This is unbeaten Texas A&M's biggest game of the four-year era of Kevin Sumlin. Everything is in place for the Aggies to upset Alabama. 
The Crimson Tide are down a notch. The Aggies are a rising power. This is their chance to prove it - and they get Alabama at home, are rested after being idle last week and hold a powerful revenge incentive. 
The key question is how improved are the Aggies from the team that was humiliated 59-0 on the road by Alabama last year? 
The answer is much improved, enough to beat the Crimson Tide straight-up. 
Since that loss, the Aggies switched quarterbacks to Kyle Allen, hired respected defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU to improve their defense - which they have - and become more balanced offensively with a power ground attack spearheaded by Tra Carson. 
The Crimson Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are vulnerable to Texas A&M's up-tempo style. Alabama's major weakness is its secondary. The only team Alabama has faced that is similar in offense to Texas A&M was Mississippi. The Rebels exploited Alabama's secondary throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 43 points in a six-point victory. 
Allen has multiple stud wide receivers - Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones - to stretch the field plus reliable Carson on the ground to keep the Crimson Tide's defense honest. 

The Aggies rank 15th in the country in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game. Allen has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I like him and the Aggies' offense much more than Alabama's offense and its quarterback Jake Coker, who has an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Chavis is one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. He knows Alabama well from having been at LSU. The Tigers under Chavis held the Crimson Tide to under 22 points in all but one of their last five games. 
Chavis has two star edge pass rushers, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, to cause havoc for Coker. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12 1/2 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss while forcing five fumbles. 
The Crimson Tide has had to play Georgia and Arkansas the past two weeks. Texas A&M had a bye last week. The Aggies haven't left the state of Texas all season. They are rested and ready. Their time has come. 

Sharp money is moving this game up. I respect the line move and am joining in. 
Northern Illinois has gotten its offense back on track putting up 59 points against Ball State in its last game. 
These teams met last year and Northern Illinois won 51-41. The teams combined for 1,172 yards in that game.

The rankings say Mississippi No. 12 and Memphis No. 22. But make no mistake there remains a huge class difference between these two teams. 
Mississippi far outclasses Memphis. 
The Rebels are road tested having faced Alabama and Florida, while this is a step up for Memphis. The Rebels beat the Tigers by 21 points last season, gaining 323 more yards. 
Yes, Memphis is improved but its up-tempo style is going to encounter problems going against a very strong SEC foe compared to its usual AAC defenses that tire easier. There also is zero chance the Rebels overlook the Tigers, who carry a 12-game unbeaten streak. 
Memphis' home field advantage isn't that big either because the Mississippi campus is less than 75 miles and the Rebels will carry strong support. 

Boise State has it going offensively now averaging 51 points during its last four games sparked by freshman quarterback Brett Rypien, who has completed 70.2 percent of his throws for 1,057 yards with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Broncos have gone over in six of their last seven road games. 

Utah State quarterback Kent Myers also is playing well. He's completing more than 65 percent of his throws. The Aggies are coming off a 56-14 waltz over Fresno State. Myers also is adept at running the ball, too. 

None of the past five games in this series have gone under the total. 

Normally I don't like to lay this big of a price. But the Mets have a monster pitching edge here and are fired-up even more than normal about Chase Utley's controversial takeout slide that injured Ruben Tejada.
Yes, the Mets could have swept the Dodgers in LA during the first two games. But they did well to go 1-1 facing Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, who rank with Jake Arrieta as the best pitchers in baseball right now.
But Matt Harvey is close to that elite class. New York has a huge advantage now with Harvey starting this Game 3 against Brett Anderson, who is decent but a middle-to-back-end quality starter. Harvey loves pressure and he'll be pitching at home where he went 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA this season. 
This game really is the Mets season because they still are going to have to face Kershaw and Greinke again. 
The Dodgers have lost their last six playoff road games and are 3-8 following a day off. 
I want the Mets in this game - and I'm willing to lay the big price to back them. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

This is a case of going over the total with a top 10 scoring team in the Giants against a buy-low underachieving 49ers offense that has talent and is facing the league's worst pass defense.
In today's NFL, with the rules heavily skewed in favor of offense, a total in this range is low. 
Not only did the Giants enter this week ranked 32nd in pass defense giving up 316.3 yards per game through the air, but they had surrendered the 26th most overall yards. Colin Kaepernick has the receiving weapons to take advantage with Torrey Smith and a still good Anquan Boldin. 
The 49ers catch the Giants missing a number of defensive players, including linebacker Devon Kennard and pass rusher Robert Ayers. 
San Francisco gave a strong defensive effort at home last week against Green Bay. But the 49ers are way down defensively due to retirements and free agency losses. They have been at their worst on the road giving up 47 points to the Cardinals and 43 to the Steelers. On the season, the 49ers give up the fourth-highest passer rating and are tied for second-worst with a 9.2 yard per pass attempt against. The 49ers have given up seven touchdown passes in their last three games with only one interception. 
The 49ers also could be without one their better defensive players, linebacker Ahmad Brooks. His sister died this week so he may not play. 
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. can light up this low caliber of defense.

Neither of these offenses impresses me. 
I rank the Browns as having the worst skill position players in the league. The Ravens' defense is down from past greatness, but still is respectable especially at home. I have no confidence in Josh McCown, who has lost 13 of his last 14 starts and has more turnovers than touchdown passes during this span. 
McCown is good for the under. He's not talented enough to make effective downfield throws. But he's savvy enough to be careful with his throws and play-calling, which is usually very conservative. He also doesn't make good plays off broken plays preferring to take a sack unlike Johnny Manziel, who should be the Browns' starting quarterback. 
The Ravens are down two of their four best wide receivers, including Steve Smith Sr. They also could be missing left tackle Eugene Monroe. If you discount their game against the Raiders, the Ravens are averaging less than 20 points per game during regulation. 
The Browns have a respectable defense. 

The Chiefs have a strong offense. Jeremy Maclin is a very good wide receiver. Jamaal Charles is a top three running back and Travis Kelce is a top five tight end.
Kansas City is 10th in the league in scoring at 25 points a game. The Chiefs have achieved this despite opening against the Texans, Broncos, Packers and Bengals. Now they step way down in class to face the Bears. Chicago has been terrible defensively the past two years - and the Bears are just as bad this season surrendering 31.2 points per game. That's the second-most points given up per game in the NFL. 
Bears coach John Fox knows he doesn't have the right personnel nor talent to field a good defense this season. Already the Bears have started dumping defensive players for low draft choices. 
The Bears, though, are respectable on offense with Jay Cutler back behind center. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago's best wide receiver, also should be back this week. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

The Rams have that winning combination with the best pass rushing defensive front in football and potential franchise back Todd Gurley to run the ball. 
Finally healthy and comfortable in a new offense, Gurley had his breakout party last week rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona. Green Bay has improved its run defense but still ranks 21st versus the run. 
The Packers are vulnerable to a great pass rushing defensive line minus right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay's weak links on its offensive line are replacement right tackle Don Barclay and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who will be matched against Robert Quinn. The Packers won't be able to double team any of the Rams because St. Louis doesn't have a weak link on its defensive front. 
Instead look for Green Bay to run the ball more than normal, which eats clock. Aaron Rodgers already is down Jordy Nelson and doesn't expect to have Davonte Adams either. 
The last time Nick Foles played at Lambeau Field was in 2013 when he led the Eagles to a 27-13 win throwing for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Gurley makes Foles and everyone else on offense a better player. 
Jeff Fisher has long been a money-making as an underdog coach with better than a 58 percent ATS record when his team gets points. 

When last spotted Utah was hammering Oregon, 62-20. That was two weeks ago. The Utes were idle last week. They are rested, prepared and have the offense and defense to cover this number against surprising Cal. 
Utah is stronger defensively than the Golden Bears and that defense gets even better with the return from injury of pass rusher supreme Hunter Dimick, who had double-digit sacks last season. 
Quarterback Travis Wilson heads a balanced Utah attack that also features Devontae Booker, who averages 111 yards rushing, and an offensive line that has allowed only one sack all season. 
I'm still leery about Cal's defensive improvement. Let's see how it holds up in this very tough road setting against a good offense. The Golden Bears rely on their excellent quarterback, Jared Goff. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdown passes and passing yards.
But I also like Utah's defense and special teams particularly punter Tom Hackett. I don't see the Golden Bears keeping this one within single digits. 

Too much offense here. Both teams are peaking offensively making this total too short. 
East Carolina has played strong competition this season. The Pirates have put up 84 points during their last two games thanks to a balanced attack. They lead the nation in third down conversions. 
BYU has its offense rolling, too, with freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum looking more and more comfortable. Mangum helped the Cougars put up a season-high 539 yards in a 30-13 win against Connecticut last week. Mangum has a deep receiver group with five receivers having more than 200 yards in receptions. 
The Cougars have gone over in five of their last seven home contests 

Navy has played Notre Dame very tough the past two seasons and are better this season, while the Irish have lost key offensive starters and face a huge look-ahead home revenge game against Southern Cal next week.
The Midshipmen have won 10 of their last 11, including their past eight games. They haven't been 4-0 since 2004. A huge key to Navy's success is quarterback Keenan Reynolds. He's a Heisman Trophy candidate who has scored 73 career touchdowns, most of any college quarterback in history. 
Navy also has a strong pass rush and a defense that its coach, Ken Niumatalolo, says is the best since he became the team's coach in 2008. 
The Midshipmen nearly upset Notre Dame two years ago at South Bend losing, 38-34. Navy was within three points with 4:18 left in last year's game against Notre Dame before losing, 49-39. 
Notre Dame exerted a lot of energy in a driving rain last week at Clemson trailing by 18 before losing, 24-22. The Irish can't help but look ahead to next week when they host USC. It's a huge revenge spot for the Irish, who lost 49-14 to the Trojans last year. 

Georgia should be fired up after being embarrassed by Alabama at home last week. The Bulldogs need an impressive showing to re-establish that they are a national power not to mention needing a victory to get back into serious playoff contention. 
The Bulldogs have the talent to do that. Nick Chubb could be the best runner in the country. He's rushed for 100 yards in his last 13 games.
Tennessee is a demoralized team. The Volunteers have lost in overtime, by one point and by four points. They blew fourth quarter leads against Oklahoma and Florida and then last week blew a 14-point lead against Arkansas. 
The Volunteers are 4-11 ATS the past 15 times facing a foe with a winning record. 

Sure Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw are studs. But a total this low means both pitchers have to be near perfect, something made more difficult by this being a playoff game. Each bullpen has to be close to perfect, too, which is far from a given since neither of these teams has great middle relief.
As great as Kershaw is during the regular season, his postseason work leaves much to be desired - 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA in his last four playoff starts. As for deGrom, this is his first playoff experience. It can be a concern anytime a young pitcher such as deGrom makes his postseason debut especially since deGrom was 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three career starts versus the Dodgers. 
Everybody is talking about what great pitching the Mets and Dodgers have. But they also have good hitting. Each team's offense is being underrated not getting the respect it deserves. 
The Mets led the National League in runs scored following the All-Star break. Their offense became highly potent after acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, who smacked 17 homers during the second half to go with 15 by Lucas Duda. 
The Dodgers posted a .322 weighted on-base percentage to lead the National League and they also had the best walk rate in baseball at 9.2 percent. 

Granted, Jake Arrieta is the hottest pitcher in baseball. But the Pirates are home and have their own ace going, Gerrit Cole. 
The Pirates are 8-1 against the Cubs with Cole on the mound. They are 14-2 in Coles' last 16 home starts versus opponents with a winning record. Pittsburgh also is 23-5 in Cole's last 28 starts at PNC Park. 
Cole has allowed just six runs to the Cubs this season in four starts.
The Pirates are familiar with Arrieta having faced him five times this year, twice during the last two weeks of the season. The Pirates have postseason experience. The Cubs don't.
It wouldn't be shocking to see Arrieta not pitching as well as he has since he's already exceeded his career high in innings this season by 73 2/3 innings. 
Home field and bullpen have to be factored, too. Pittsburgh went 53-28 at PNC Park. The Pirates' bullpen is much better than Chicago's both ERA and OPS-wise.