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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	33 h 19 m	Show
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
09-17-21	Mercury -2.5 v. Storm		85-94	Loss	-108	10 h 12 m	Show
The Mercury have been sizzling winning 10 of their last 11. The Storm, on the other hand, are just 4-6 following the Olympic break. Seattle has yet to regain its early season momentum. The Storm are not the same team that went 16-5 going into break. The Storm also are going to be without superstar Breanna Stewart, who has a foot injury. Minus Stewart, the Storm were hammered by the Sparks, 81-53, in their last game.
09-17-21	Braves v. Giants UNDER 8		5-6	Loss	-111	12 h 56 m	Show
You would be hard-pressed to find a hotter pitcher than Logan Webb. He is 15-1 in his last 16 starts with a 1.93 ERA during this span. Webb faced the Braves last month and shut them out for seven innings in a 5-0 victory. The Under has cashed in nine of the Braves' last 10 away games. Braves starter Ian Anderson should do his part for the Under. He's been solid with a 7-5 record and 3.61 ERA. Anderson pitched against the Giants Aug. 29 and held them scoreless for 5 2/3 innings in a 9-0 victory. The Braves' bullpen is completely rested because their Thursday game was called off.
09-17-21	Toronto v. Saskatchewan -4		16-30	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I'm expecting QB Cody Fajardo to play this week after he was injured last week. That's good enough to back Saskatchewan, which is 13-6-1 ATS the past 20 times it has been favored. The Roughriders have covered in six of their last eight meetings against Toronto. The Argonauts are 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. Fajardo is having a strong season throwing for 1,153 yards and rushing for nearly 200 more yards while accounting for six TD's. The Roughriders' young wide receivers have stepped up, too. Saskatchewan has forced 12 turnovers and leads the CFL in sacks with 16. Toronto lacks a balanced attack. I don't see the Argos being in the Roughriders' class especially on the road where they usually struggle.
09-17-21	Maryland v. Illinois +7	Top	20-17	Win	100	27 h 5 m	Show
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia. I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests. The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game.
09-17-21	Padres v. Cardinals -130	Top	2-8	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
09-16-21	Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5	Top	29-30	Loss	-100	20 h 5 m	Show
The Giants have two major things against them besides traveling on a short week, which is already factored into the line. No. 1: A wretched offensive line that is taking on a very good Washington pass rush headed by emerging superstar Chase Young and underrated Montez Sweat. That offensive line - ignored during the offseason by Giants management - is down starting guard Shane Lemieux, too. Von Miller caused havoc in Week 1 during the Broncos', 27-13, road win against New York. That score is even more lopsided than the final score as Daniel Jones scored a meaningless TD on the final play. No. 2: Jones. He's the most turnover-prone QB in the league. He has either fumbled or thrown an interception 57 times in 27 career starts. Jones isn't helped by the play-calling of dull-witted Jason Garrett, perhaps the least creative offensive coordinator in the NFL. The perception, judging by the betting line of around a field goal, is that these teams are even given that Washington has home field, which generally is considered worth three points. I don't consider these teams to be even, however. Where are the Giants' edges? I can't find any. New York has a respectable defense. Washington has a top-five caliber defense. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is less likely to turn the ball over compared to Jones in what should be a conservative game. Terry McLaurin is easily the best wide receiver and I would take Antonio Gibson above Saquon Barkley as the top running back on the field. Don't agree? Consider this then: Barkley averaged 1.8 yards last season before suffering his ACL tear. He averaged 2.6 yards against the Broncos in 10 carries. Barkley isn't likely ticketed for heavy duty here playing his second game in four days following his serious knee surgery. Gibson will be heavily featured. The Giants yielded nearly six yards per carry against Denver running backs Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. I would give Washington the coaching checkmark, too, preferring the braintrust of Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner over Joe Judge and Garrett.
09-15-21	Indians -104 v. Twins	Top	12-3	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
09-15-21	Liberty +13.5 v. Sun		69-98	Loss	-115	8 h 10 m	Show
Connecticut has the best record in the WNBA. The Sun are going to be top-seeded in the playoffs. So this game means very little to them. Not so with New York. The Liberty are battling for the final playoff spot with the Mystics and Sparks. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming from the LIberty. New York has talent with Betnijah Laney and Natasha Howard, who can keep the Sun from dominating inside. Sabrina Ionescu is overdue to step up, too, for the LIberty. The Sun, on the other hand, could be reducing the minutes of their starters as they prepare for the playoffs and much more important games.
09-15-21	Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5		9-4	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
There's much to like in going Under this total. It's a getaway day game so several starters could get rested. Then we have a pitching matchup of Tanner Houck versus Marco Gonzales. There's a slight breeze blowing in and Hunter Wendelstedt is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 59 percent in the 22 games he has been behind the plate this year. Houck hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any game he's pitched this season. This is the best pitcher's park he's pitched in all season. He faces a weak Seattle offense that ranks 30th in batting average and 27th in OPS. Gonzales is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA in day games. Only once in his last 11 starts has Gonzales permitted more than three earned runs.
09-14-21	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5	Top	4-8	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Neither of these starting pitchers, Luke Weaver and Tony Gonsolin, moves the needle for me. Injuries have held back Weaver. He's been mediocre with a losing record and 4.24 ERA. Weaver has been at his worst on the road with an 8.20 ERA. LA is averaging six runs during its last three games. Gonsolin doesn't have good control and doesn't go deep into games. The Dodgers will be lucky to get five innings out of him before turning things over to their vulnerable middle relief. Arizona has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last 10 games. Mark Wegner is slated to be the home plate umpire, which is a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 16 of 24 games he's been behind the plate during the last two years for 67 percent. Tuesday Free Play Rays plus $1.21 at Blue Jays Toronto is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting up MVP numbers leading the majors in homers with 45. So the oddsmaker is justified in making the Blue Jays a home favorite. This has perked my interest in the Rays. It's rare to get them in this plus price range. Tampa Bay has won 42 of its last 61 games. The Rays own the best road mark in the American League at 44-29. Some of this line may be influenced by the Blue Jays' dominant 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday. Alek Manoah was magnificent, throwing a one-hitter in eight shutout innings. Manoah has the capability to do that against any team. I see the Rays faring better facing today's starter, Joe Berrios, who is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay. Drew Rasmussen is slated to start for Tampa Bay. He's 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. We know how much Kevin Cash loves his bullpen and his relief pitching depth has increased with the return of Nick Anderson, who has been out with an elbow injury. Anderson was 5-1 with a 1.43 ERA during the previous two years.
09-14-21	Fever v. Dream -140		78-85	Win	100	7 h 53 m	Show
The Dream have covered seven of the last nine in this series. I see that pattern continuing here. Atlanta has been idle since Friday. The Fever, though, will be playing for the third time in five days. They've had two straight games against Minnesota, a physical team. The Dream has covered four of its last five games.
09-13-21	Red Sox v. Mariners +115		4-5	Win	115	20 h 53 m	Show
The Mariners don't generate much respect, but they are a feisty, underrated crew that is dangerous as home 'dogs. Seattle is 11-5 the past 16 times taking a plus price at home. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games with its two victories during this span occurring by one run each. The Red Sox have been struggling on the road dropping 15 of their last 22 away contests. Seattle is 8-5 in its last 13 games with three of those defeats coming by a single run. The pitching matchup is Eduardo Rodriguez versus Logan Gilbert. Rodriguez has a disappointing 5.15 ERA. He was racked by the Rays in his last start this past Tuesday giving up six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. Gilbert also has a high ERA. However, the Mariners are 10-5 when they've been an underdog with Gilbert on the mound. Gilbert may dodge Red Sox power-hitter J.D. Martinez, who has missed the last three games due to back spasms.
09-13-21	Ravens -4 v. Raiders	Top	27-33	Loss	-110	148 h 38 m	Show
Sure the Raiders will be up for this Monday game being their first home game in Las Vegas in front of fans. It won't matter. The Ravens totally outclass the Raiders. Baltimore is ready to go after still another unbeaten preseason. The Ravens have won and covered opening week each of the last five seasons with their average victory margin being by 30.2 points. The Raiders went 2-6 during their first year in Las Vegas last season. The Ravens have been a strong road team under John Harbaugh winning 13 of their past 16 away contests. They also have covered 83 percent of the time as road chalk during the last two seasons. The Ravens return nearly all of their starters from last year's 11-win team. Lamar Jackson should produce monster numbers against a Raiders defense that has ranked in the bottom-four each of the last four years. The Raiders' personnel moves continue to puzzle. They got rid of key members of their offensive line. So a strength now is a major question mark. The spotlight will be on the electrifying Jackson, but the Ravens also will control the trenches. The combination is enough to produce a win by double-digits.
09-13-21	Cardinals -105 v. Mets		7-0	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Maybe Adam Wainwright isn't over the hill. The 40-year-old is 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA. He's finishing the season strong, too, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts. Wainwright is 7-2 on the road. Mets starter Rich Hill is even older than Wainwright at 41. The southpaw is 3-4 at home with a 4.22 home ERA. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 16 road games. They have won six straight away contests when facing a lefty starter. St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five games at the Mets. The situation isn't good for the Mets either having played the late Sunday night game against their subway rivals the Yankees.
09-13-21	Wings v. Aces -10.5		75-85	Loss	-110	4 h 48 m	Show
It's hard for me to trust Bill Laimbeer, but I'm going to do it here. The Aces are off a highly impressive victory against the Lynx and can come very close to clinching a double bye into the WNBA semifinals with a victory here. This is their last home game. They conclude their regular season with a pair of road contests. So there is a major emphasis for them to play well here. The Wings just nipped the Liberty by one point at home two days ago. This is a very quick turnaround game for them as this is a day game with an early West Coast start. Dallas has failed to cover in its last five games.
09-12-21	Bears v. Rams UNDER 46		14-34	Loss	-104	126 h 31 m	Show
The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average. Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success. The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either.
09-12-21	Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 44		17-16	Win	100	123 h 1 m	Show
There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too. The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended. The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.
09-12-21	Broncos -2.5 v. Giants		27-13	Win	100	122 h 12 m	Show
Teddy Bridgewater has won 65 percent of his NFL starts going 22-12. This has been accomplished because Bridgewater is mobile and a highly-accurate game manager-type who has had the good fortune to have played with strong defenses. That's the case again this season. Denver's defense should be one of the best in the NFL with the return of pass rusher Von Miller and the addition of rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain to go with star pass rusher Bradley Chubb and a very strong secondary. I don't see the Giants producing much against this caliber of defense. The Giants had the second-worst offense last season. They failed to address their offensive line shortcomings so I'm not expecting much, if any, improvement from turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones. Denver's defensive guru coach Vic Fangio is top-notch at mixing blitzing schemes and getting the best matchups. Bridgewater has multiple weapons at his disposal, including Jerry Jeudy, Cortland Sutton, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler. The Broncos are at least a level higher than the Giants.
09-12-21	Vikings -3 v. Bengals	Top	24-27	Loss	-120	120 h 51 m	Show
Much is made of the Bengals' excellent wide receiving group. But what really needs to be said about the Bengals is their serious flaws on defense and in their offensive line. They could have the worst guards in the league. The Vikings were a top-four defensive unit for three straight years until last year when injuries and opt-outs caused a huge drop. The Vikings have revamped their defense to their previous standards. Underrated Danielle Hunter is back and he's going to wreak havoc on the Bengals' pitiful offensive line. It remains to be seen how much mobility Joe Burrow will have in his first game since tearing his ACL/MCL last season. Defenses averaged 3.2 sacks of Burrow before he went down. This could be Mike Zimmer's most-explosive Vikings team in his eight years at Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is the second-best all-purpose running back in the NFL and Justin Jefferson is a top-seven wide receiver. Kirk Cousins also has red zone master Adam Thielen to throw to.
09-12-21	Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52		38-13	Loss	-109	119 h 1 m	Show
Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them. The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal. The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5		28-35	Win	100	122 h 50 m	Show
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
09-11-21	NC State v. Mississippi State	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	50 h 13 m	Show
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team. The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State. It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers.
09-11-21	Calgary v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46		32-16	Win	100	12 h 46 m	Show
The Canadian Football League is a quirky league with quirky scheduling. This matchup is one of those weird schedule dates. Calgary and Edmonton just played this past Monday. The Elks won, 32-20. So has anything changed during these last five days? Well, yes. The Stampeders are expected to get back star QB Bo Levi Mitchell, a two-time winner of the league's Most Outstanding Player. Mitchell was among the passing leaders through the first two weeks of the season until suffering a broken leg causing him to miss the past three games. Rookie Jake Maier filled in well for Mitchell throwing for 300 yards in each of his three starts. Mitchell really makes Calgary's offense more dangerous with his deep passing capabilities. He has excellent weapons in wideouts Kamar Jorden, Markeith Ambles and Josh Huff to go along with running back Ka'Deem Carey, who leads the CFL with four rushing TD's. Edmonton's offense played very well in the first meeting. Elks QB Trevor Harris lit up Calgary completing 31-of-41 passes for 398 yards and four TD's. There's no reason why Harris can't have a repeat performance. The Stampeders give up the most passing yards in the league.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	118 h 8 m	Show
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
09-11-21	UAB +24.5 v. Georgia		7-56	Loss	-110	42 h 18 m	Show
I regard UAB as the best team in Conference USA and one of the more unsung teams in the nation. The Blazers catch Georgia at a good time. The Bulldogs are in letdown and sandwich mode after a highly-satisfying, hard-fought, 10-3, win against Clemson last week. Georgia hosts South Carolina next week in its opening SEC matchup. The Bulldogs also are dealing with COVID-19 issues. This may or may not have a bearing on team depth, but it's certainly not a plus for Georgia. UAB took care of business in its opener shutting out Jacksonville State, 31-0. The Blazers defense showed why it is highly regarded holding Jacksonville State to 154 yards of total offense. Tyler Johnson gives UAB a reliable QB and he's playing behind a very good offensive line. So I don't see the Blazers getting totally outclassed here like the point spread suggests.
09-11-21	Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5		3-28	Loss	-110	24 h 42 m	Show
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
09-11-21	Rutgers -125 v. Syracuse		17-7	Win	100	40 h 13 m	Show
I like what Greg Schiano is doing at Rutgers. The won/lost results haven't been there for the Scarlet Knights, but I see that changing this season after several strong recruiting classes. Rutgers certainly looked good in destroying Temple, 61-14, last week. I understand Temple is weak, but the Owls were supposed to be improved this year. The line is short here because Syracuse also was impressive during opening week, taking out Ohio, 29-9, as a short road 'dog. Now, though, the Orangemen go from a MAC team to a Big Ten opponent. Syracuse has failed to cover the past five times following a victory. I've never been a fan of Syracuse QB Tommy DeVito and he doesn't have good offensive line protection either. Rutgers has covered in its last five road games.
09-10-21	Angels +1.5 v. Astros	Top	5-10	Loss	-116	20 h 46 m	Show
Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 homers and topps the American League with a .608 slugging percentage. He's also not bad when it comes to pitching. Ohtani is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA. He's won his last eight decisions posting a 3.09 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings during this span. The Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's last 13 starts. So I feel very strong in backing Ohtani especially on the road taking 1 1/2 runs with an extra at bat being the visiting team. Ohtani faced the Astros once this year - giving up one run on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings back on May 11. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid with a 9-5 record and 3.08 ERA. The Astros' bullpen, though, hasn't been looking good lately. Valdez also has a mediocre 4.27 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Angels, including five starts. The Angels were idle Thursday. They are 5-0 the past five times following a day off.
09-10-21	Dream v. Mystics OVER 156		74-82	Push	0	8 h 6 m	Show
These two teams rank among the bottom three in defense. The Dream allow 85 points a game, while the Mystics are close to that giving up 84.2 points per contest. Atlanta is 1-12 in its last 13 games. Washington has lost eight of its last 10. This is a winnable game for either team so I'm expecting a loosely played contest between a couple of disappointing teams. The Over has cashed seven of the past nine times the teams have met.
09-09-21	Sun v. Sparks +10		75-57	Loss	-108	10 h 45 m	Show
This is a flat spot for Connecticut. The Sun just rolled over Dallas two days ago on the road. Now they fly into LA before taking on the Mercury in Phoenix on Saturday in a much tougher game. The Sparks have the worst record in the Western Conference. They are dangerous as home 'dogs, though, covering 11 of the past 15 times in that capacity. LA also has had ample rest and game preparation having been idle for the last week. The Sparks have won their past three home games.
09-09-21	Cowboys v. Bucs -7.5	Top	29-31	Loss	-105	100 h 47 m	Show
I don't see the Cowboys being able to stay within double digits of the Buccaneers. Unlike last season, when it took them half the season for them to gel under new QB Tom Brady, the Buccaneers are fully in sync. The Super Bowl champs have all of their starters back and their deep set of receivers should carve up a Dallas defense that was historically bad last season. I don't expect the Cowboys to surrender 29.6 points a game and permit 34 TD passes like in 2020. But I certainly don't expect them to be one of the better defensive units either as they make the change to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This will be Dak Prescott's first game since suffering a horrific broken ankle last year. He'll be behind a thin offensive line minus several players due to injuries and COVID. The Buccaneers are top-notch against the run so I'm not expecting a big game either from Ezekiel Elliott. Super Bowl champions opening at home are a dominant 18-2 SU, 14-4-2 ATS.
09-09-21	Royals +105 v. Orioles		6-0	Win	105	19 h 55 m	Show
It's rare to see the Orioles a home favorite. It's even more rare to see them win in that role - or any other role. Baltimore is 2-8 the past 10 times it has been home chalk. I don't believe the Orioles should be priced higher than the Royals in a pitching matchup of Carlos Hernandez against southpaw John Means. Hernandez is flying below the radar going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during his last seven appearances spanning 42 1/3 innings. Means is the only decent starter in Baltimore's rotation. But he could be hitting the wall having already pitched 119 1/3 innings this season compared to 43 2/3 last year. The Royals have won 15 of the last 22 times they've faced a lefty starter. The Royals aren't going to lack motivation either after blowing a 5-0 eighth inning lead on Wednesday.
09-09-21	Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9.5		6-4	Loss	-108	19 h 53 m	Show
It's easy to think offense when the Blue Jays and Yankees match up. Truth be told, though, the Under has cashed 12 of the last 16 times in this series. The Yankees have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 11 games. They've been held to four runs during their last three games. I don't see them doing extensive damage against Jose Berrios. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has been one of New York's consistent pitchers with a 2.67 ERA. It's worth noting that Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 25-15 during the last two seasons when he's been behind the plate.
09-09-21	Twins v. Indians -133		1-4	Win	100	18 h 59 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the top-five teams - when it comes to burning money. I'm going to fade the Twins again at this reasonable price in a pitching matchup of Randy Dobnak versus Cal Quantrill. Dobnak is 1-7 with a 7.64 ERA. Quantrill has had a nice season for the Indians. Before suffering a bad outing against the Red Sox six days ago, Quantrill had gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his previous 16 starts. Minnesota is 11 games below .500 when playing on the road. The Indians usually are reliable as home chalk having won 36 of the past 51 times in that role.
09-08-21	Lynx +4 v. Aces		81-102	Loss	-107	10 h 43 m	Show
The Aces are a very good WNBA team. However, they don't match up well to Minnesota, which has won five in a row going 4-0-1 ATS. The Lynx like to pay a physical, half-court game. That's not Las Vegas' style. The Lynx are one of the few teams that can match the Aces inside with Sylvia Fowles. The Aces will be minus their All-Star center Liz Cambage. She's dealing with COVID-19 protocols. The Aces still could be without Dearica Hamby, who has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. The Lynx are well-coached, too. I'm not a fan of Aces coach Bill Laimbeer. The teams have met twice this season and the Lynx are 2-0.
09-08-21	Twins v. Indians -125	Top	3-0	Loss	-125	15 h 7 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
09-07-21	Phillies v. Brewers -102	Top	0-10	Win	100	22 h 50 m	Show
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
09-06-21	Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76	Top	24-43	Win	100	16 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.
09-06-21	Twins v. Indians +117		5-2	Loss	-100	16 h 38 m	Show
I'm not buying the Twins as a road favorite. Minnesota is 3-7 in its last 10 road contests and has been one of the biggest underachievers of the season with a 59-77 record. The Indians, by contrast, are two games above .500. So is the pitching matchup that great where Minnesota should be favored? Nope. It's rookie Bailey Ober versus Logan Allen. Ober has a 3.98 ERA. The Indians counter with Logan Allen, who is pitching his best ball. Allen has allowed just two earned runs during his past two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings. Allen might avoid power-hitter Miguel Sano, who is second on the Twins in homers and RBI's. Sano is questionable with a shoulder injury.
09-06-21	Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5		32-20	Win	100	23 h 49 m	Show
Given the skill position talent of these teams, I find this total too low. Calgary could get QB Bo Levi Mitchell back. But I'm fine if Mitchell isn't ready yet. Jake Maier, his replacement the past two games, has played extremely well. Maier threw for more than 300 yards against Montreal and completed 17 consecutive passes against Winnipeg while also passing for more than 300 yards. Edmonton leads the CFL in yards per game. The Elks have a strong passing attack with Trevor Harris and one of the best runners in the league in James Wilder Jr., who has a CFL-high 11 rushes of 10 yards or more. The Elks should be scoring more points than they have. They put up 21 against a respectable BC defense in their last game. I expect the Elks to have a solid game plan coming off a COVID-19 pause and having had more than two weeks to game plan.
09-06-21	Giants v. Rockies +157	Top	10-5	Loss	-100	14 h 46 m	Show
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
09-06-21	Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5		3-6	Loss	-100	11 h 60 m	Show
A pair of underrated starters versus two below average offenses puts me on the Under. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal has given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He has a 3.44 day time ERA and ranks 15th in the American League in strikeouts. He faces a Pirates squad that is the lowest-scoring team in the majors. The Pirates are going with Bryse Wilson, who displayed potential when he was with the Braves. I like Wilson. He doesn't have good numbers so far - 0-3 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts with the Pirates - but I believe he can keep the Tigers in check. Detroit ranks 19th in runs scored.
09-05-21	Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5	Top	41-38	Win	100	56 h 23 m	Show
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
09-05-21	A's +1.5 v. Blue Jays		0-8	Loss	-104	13 h 35 m	Show
Credit to Robbie Ray for a great season. But the A's are too good of a team to be this big of an underdog. I'm going to hedge, though, and lay a small price by taking Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 11-5 in their last 16 games. Toronto would be 3-10 in its last 13 games if minus 1 1/2 runs. I'm not fading the lefthanded Ray here, it's all about getting value with the A's. Oakland is 39-16 in its last 55 games versus a southpaw. The A's also rank in the top four in hits and homers when playing on the road. A's starter Cole Irvin is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter.
09-05-21	Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9.5		8-7	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
The Orioles have the worst record in the majors - 50 games below .500 - because aside from John Means they have terrible starting pitching and a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore trots out another one of its horrible starters, Keegan Akin, in this matchup. Akin is 2-8 with a 6.90 ERA. That ERA balloons up to 7.46 when he pitches on the road. The Yankees' offense has been on a sustained tear averaging 5 runs per game during their last 20 contests. The Orioles have respectable power and face Corey Kluber, who is rusty having missed more than three months with a right shoulder strain. This will be just his second start since returning. He gave up five runs in four innings against the Angels in his first start off the injured list. There's a slight wind, which will be blowing out to left.
09-04-21	Baylor -14 v. Texas State	Top	29-20	Loss	-105	18 h 13 m	Show
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests.
09-04-21	Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	4-11	Win	100	14 h 53 m	Show
Considering the pitchers and offensive strengths of these two teams, I would have put this total at double-digits. It's at least one run short in my view. Only five teams have hit more homers than the Twins. No team is averaging more runs per game than the Rays. Tampa Bay has scored 5 or more runs in 13 of its last 17 games. The Twins go against Chris Archer, who has thrown just six innings since April 10 as he works his way back into shape after being out four months with right forearm tightness. Archer hasn't been effective for the past six years. So I'm not expecting much. Nor am I expecting anything from Twins starter, 35-year-old Andrew Alberts. He has made just two starts since 2017.
09-04-21	Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State OVER 52.5		34-35	Win	100	15 h 16 m	Show
Louisiana Tech lacks the necessary pass rush to bother Mike Leach's Air Raid offense. Mississippi State should put up plenty of points having a better grasp of Leach's aggressive style of attack. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers had a 69 percent completion rate last season, which was the second-highest in FBS history for a freshman. He'll be even better this season as will Mississippi State backed by a veteran wide receiving corps. Louisiana Tech will contribute its fair share to getting this total Over. Mississippi State gave up nearly 35 points per game last year. Louisiana Tech averaged nearly four TD's a game and fortified its offense with a number of transfers. Veteran Austin Kendall will be under center for Louisiana Tech. He learned his craft at Oklahoma where he backed up Baker Mayfield and then went to West Virginia where he passed for 2,153 yards and 14 TD's in 11 games.
09-04-21	Marshall v. Navy UNDER 47.5		49-7	Loss	-118	15 h 49 m	Show
Slow tempo, lots of running and strong defenses. That's a nice recipe for an Under, which should happen here. Only 11 teams had a slower pace than Navy last season. The Midshipmen, with their triple-option attack, are going to have problems producing many points against Marshall. The Thundering Herd led the nation in scoring defense last season. They gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Navy averaged 4.3 points during its final three games last year. Marshall plays slow, too, and lacks explosive weapons. Navy's defense came on strong last season surrendering only 14.3 points during its final three games.
09-03-21	Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern		38-21	Win	100	20 h 38 m	Show
You might think this game should be a mismatch. After all, Northwestern went 7-2 and won a bowl game last season while Michigan State struggled going 2-5 with two games cancelled during Mel Tucker's first season. You would think wrong, though. Northwestern lost much of its talent from last year, including QB Peyton Ramsey, star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and its cornerback and receiving corps. Perhaps no major conference team lost as many players through graduation as Northwestern. Michigan State, on the other hand, should be much improved. The Spartans are far more stable in Tucker's second year. Michigan State returns twice as many starters as Northwestern and has the talent at wide receiver to take advantage of Northwestern's inexperienced secondary. Note, too, that one of Michigan State's victories last season was against Northwestern, 29-20. The Spartans also defeated the Wildcats, 31-10, at Northwestern in 2019.
09-03-21	Braves v. Rockies +129	Top	3-4	Win	129	19 h 40 m	Show
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game.
09-02-21	Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5	Top	31-36	Loss	-107	22 h 24 m	Show
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
09-01-21	UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5	Top	31-0	Loss	-105	8 h 48 m	Show
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
09-01-21	Astros -125 v. Mariners	Top	0-1	Loss	-125	5 h 57 m	Show
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts.
08-31-21	Braves v. Dodgers -177		2-3	Win	100	13 h 10 m	Show
It's a decent-size price against a respectable opponent, but it's still worth laying with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler is your probable Cy Young Award winner in the National League. He's 13-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 26 starts. He's been absolutely magnificent this month with a 1.35 ERA in five August starts. Buehler has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last nine starts. The Braves are familiar with Buehler. He beat them twice in the NLCS last year, giving up one run in 11 innings. Charlie Morton can't compete against those standards. Morton is 12-5 with a 3.60 ERA. He was touched for four runs in five innings against the Yankees during his previous start. The Dodgers have stepped up their game, too, going 14-3 in their last 17 games.
08-31-21	Astros v. Mariners OVER 8		0-4	Loss	-100	13 h 7 m	Show
I find this total short considering the Astros are involved. Houston leads the majors in batting average while ranking second in runs scored. The Astros draw Yusei Kikuchi. They just saw him 11 days ago and got to Kikuchi for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings, smashing three homers off him in a 12-3 victory. The Mariners have scored 4 or more runs in six of their last eight games. They face Lance McCullers, who has a 3.93 ERA in his last four games. The Over has cashed during six of the past seven meetings in this series.
08-31-21	Liberty v. Lynx -9	Top	66-74	Loss	-108	10 h 20 m	Show
The Liberty is at low ebb with four straight losses and non-covers - all at home. Now New York takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 15. The Lynx defeated the Liberty, 88-78, at home when New York last was on the road, which was 16 days ago. I'm expecting another double-digit victory from the Lynx against the Liberty. Minnesota has covered its last four homes and is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against New York. The Liberty have lost seven of their past eight games and have been bad in this role going 9-20 ATS as a road 'dog.
08-30-21	Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5		3-4	Loss	-105	19 h 45 m	Show
I can easily envision double-digits being produced in this game. The Rockies usually hit much better at home, but they are averaging six runs per game during their last four road games. Nobody has driven in more runs this month than Colorado's C.J. Cron, who has 33. Texas is scoring runs, too, averaging 6.2 in its last four games. The Rangers just smashed the Astros, 13-2, Sunday. This was against Zack Grienke, too. Rockies starter German Marquez is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field than on the road where his away ERA is 5.31. The rebuilding Rangers are dealing with a COVID crunch and auditioning starters. The latest to try is A.J. Alexy, who will be making his big league debut. I doubt Alexy is ready to pitch at the major league level yet.
08-30-21	Twins v. Tigers +112	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	15 h 60 m	Show
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
08-29-21	Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 36.5	Top	29-26	Loss	-110	18 h 10 m	Show
No Tua Tagovailoa. Joe Burrow is going to play. But the Bengals aren't going to do anything to put him in harm's way. Burrow hasn't played since suffering a torn ACL in Week 11 of last season. Burrow probably will play just a series or two and the Bengals won't let him be aggressive. This puts the backup QB's into play. Miami has Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett. Brissett is one of the better backups in the league. But because of that, Miami may give an extended look to Sinnett. Cincinnati's backup QB's are Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmer. The Bengals are averaging 16 points in their two preseason games. They have not solved their offensive line woes. Neither team wants to show much during this final and meaningless exhibition.
08-29-21	Reds -1.5 v. Marlins		1-2	Loss	-105	4 h 58 m	Show
The Marlins are force-feeding high-end pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo. It hasn't been going well. Luzardo, acquired a month ago from the A's, has a 9.67 ERA in five starts with the Marlins. He is averaging nearly 20 baserunners per nine innings during those starts. Reds starter Tyler Mahle is having a breakthrough season at 27 thanks to an improved slider. He's been especially effective on the road with a 1.84 ERA. The Reds are 5-1 versus the Marlins this season going hard for a playoff berth.
08-28-21	Padres -118 v. Angels		2-10	Loss	-118	9 h 30 m	Show
The buy sign is on the Padres after San Diego shut out the Angels, 5-0, Friday. That halted the Padres' four-game losing streak and restored confidence. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games with that lone win occurring against the Orioles. The pitching matchup is Ryan Weathers versus Suarez. I'm not a fan of Weathers, but Suarez isn't imposing either with a 6.21 ERA during his last six starts. The Padres have a far superior lineup with the Angels missing Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
08-28-21	Bears -3 v. Titans		27-24	Push	0	9 h 53 m	Show
The Titans are going to be sitting out their top starters. The Bears won't play Andy Dalton. So it comes down to a battle of reserve QB's and the Bears should hold a winning hand with exciting rookie Justin Fields and veteran Nick Foles against journeyman Matt Barkley and Logan Woodside. The Bears' offensive line is showing signs of jelling. It was a big question mark entering the season. Bears coach Matt Nagy is likely to play his starting offensive line for at least one half. The Titans' defensive line, thin to begin the season, already is dealing with numerous injuries. So I expect the Bears to control the line of scrimmage. The Titans are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that has affected nine players and several coaches, including head coach Mike Vrabel, who won't be at the game since he tested positive this past Sunday. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill also is dealing with COVID. Chicago should be the more motivated team having been embarrassed by the Bills, 41-15, last week.
08-28-21	Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 68.5	Top	10-44	Win	100	100 h 49 m	Show
Both teams improved defensively last season and should be even better this year. Hawaii has all of its key defensive starters back and added three potential starting transfers, including two in the secondary. The Rainbow Warriors surrendered an average of 27.6 points a game, their lowest figure in seven years. UCLA's offense could get off to a slow start since QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed the first few fall practices. UCLA's defense gave up 30.7 points a game last season, down from the 34 points they allowed per game during the previous two seasons. The Bruins return 10 defensive starters. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro is decent, but he's nothing great especially compared to previous star Rainbow Warrior QB's.
08-27-21	Brewers -125 v. Twins		0-2	Loss	-125	20 h 24 m	Show
This is one of the rare times where there is more value on the favorite than the underdog. Milwaukee is 28 games above and is 42-21 on the road. Minnesota is 17 games below .500. The Twins are 1-5 in their last six games, surrendering an average of 8.8 runs during this span. Brewers starter Eric Lauer is a bottom-of-the-rotation type, who doesn't get much respect. But look at who the Twins are pitching, Andrew Albers. He's a 35-year-old journeyman who had been out of the majors for the past four years until resurfacing this year. Lauer is good for 4-to-6 innings. He's given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He's a good fit for the Brewers because their bullpen is strong and deep. Milwaukee has its top bullpen arms rested, too. Albers will be making only his second appearance of the season and first start.
08-27-21	Eagles +4.5 v. Jets		31-31	Win	100	52 h 48 m	Show
Reserves are going to play a lot in this final preseason tune up. So the Jets have no business laying this big of a price. These teams are familiar with each other since they've had joint practices. The Eagles have been superior inside the trenches. Zach Wilson looked good in leading the Jets past the Packers last week. But Green Bay held out all of its top defensive players, going with third and fourth-stringers. I prefer the Eagles' backup QB rotation of Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens versus the Jets' third-stringer James Morgan and fourth-stringer Josh Johnson as New York second-string QB Mike White suffered a rib injury against the Packers this past Saturday and is unlikely to play.
08-27-21	Steelers v. Panthers UNDER 36	Top	9-34	Loss	-110	55 h 12 m	Show
Here's who is not playing: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Najee Harris and Christian McCaffrey. Here's who is going to be playing: Dwayne Haskins, Josh Dobbs, Will Grier and P.J. Walker. That largely explains why I like the Under. Haskins and Dobbs are battling for the No. 3 QB spot on the Steelers. Neither is any good. Mike Tomlin showed how much he cares about this game by holding out his two top QB's plus his best running back, Harris. The rest of the Steelers' running backs are garbage and Pittsburgh's offensive line is a huge work-in-progress. The Panthers are expected to play a number of defensive starters. Carolina coach Matt Ruhle smartly is going to hold out McCaffrey, who is coming off an injury-plagued 2020 and figures to see nearly all of the Panthers' backfield touches when the regular season begins. Sam Darnold may play a quarter. But I'm not worried about that. Darnold's thrown only two passes in preseason with one of the passes being a throw-away. He's rusty and not in sync with his new team yet. The Steelers have one of the better defenses in the league. Grier and Walker are below average backup QB's.
08-27-21	Hamilton v. Montreal +2.5		27-10	Loss	-110	19 h 33 m	Show
The attendance will be capped at 15,000. But Montreal will be playing its first home game in two years since there was no CFL last season. So the Alouettes certainly won't lack for motivation. Montreal QB Vernon Adams had a monster season in 2019 when he became a starter for the first time. Despite putting up decent numbers in a narrow loss at Calgary last week, Adams didn't have a good performance by his standards. He'll look to atone against the 0-2 Tiger-Cats. Adams didn't lose consecutive games during the entire 2019 season. Hamilton has managed just 14 points in its two games. Backup Dane Evans will be filling in for injured starting Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats have numerous injuries in their offensive and defensive lines, too. Montreal is the far healthier team.
08-26-21	Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5	Top	5-7	Win	100	20 h 48 m	Show
I see this total as being at least one run too low. The Nationals average 4.5 runs on the road. They are averaging 5.7 runs during their last eight games. The Marlins average more than four runs per game at home. The pitching matchup is lefty Patrick Corbin versus righty Elieser Hernandez. Corbin has mostly been terrible this year. He's 7-12 with a 5.82 ERA. He's given up four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. Hernandez, who has a 4.15 ERA, will be making just his fifth appearance of the season. He last started six days ago against the Reds and was tagged for five runs, four of which were earned, in 4 2/3 innings. Hernandez gave up two homers during that game. The Nationals have the second-highest batting average against righthanders in the National League. Note, too, that Joe West is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 59 percent of the time West has been behind the plate the past two years spanning 34 games.
08-26-21	Wings v. Mystics -3		82-77	Loss	-110	7 h 32 m	Show
Washington is showing signs of gelling with Elena Delle Donne back in the lineup going 2-0 ATS. It's not just Delle Donne's outstanding talent, but also the confidence level and intangibles she brings that makes the Mystics much better. Dallas is down its third and fourth-leading scorers as both Satou Sabally and Allisha Gray are out. The Wings have failed to cover in five of their last six games.
08-26-21	Aces -12 v. Dream		78-71	Loss	-110	7 h 32 m	Show
I see the Aces bouncing back after a bad loss to the Sun two days ago when they scored a season-low 62 points. The Aces have too much offense for the defensively-challenged Dream especially with Atlanta not nearly at full strength. Besides a bet-on spot for the Aces there's also a fatigue factor. Las Vegas is playing for just the third time in 10 days while the Dream are in action for the sixth time in 12 days. Atlanta has lost 12 of its last 13 going 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games. Morale is down and the confidence is low. The Aces destroyed the Dream in the last meeting, 118-95, at home as 15-point favorites. I see a similar type blowout.
08-26-21	Aces v. Dream OVER 166.5		78-71	Loss	-110	7 h 30 m	Show
Las Vegas buried the Dream, 118-95, when the teams last met on July 4. The Aces still maintain the top offensive rating in the WNBA despite managing only 62 points against the Sun in their last game. Atlanta is totally different than the Sun. The Dream rank last in the league defensively giving up an average of 108.8 points per 100 possessions. They don't have the defenders to bother A'ja Wilson and Liz Cambage. The Dream have some scoring ability, though, with guard Courtney Williams and they play at a fairly fast pace.
08-25-21	Dodgers -136 v. Padres	Top	5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
08-25-21	Tigers +127 v. Cardinals		2-3	Loss	-100	5 h 43 m	Show
Now that he's harnessed his control, Tarik Skubal has become a dangerous pitcher. He's also underrated. Skubal is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA in his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span is 17-to-2. The last time Skubal walked more than one batter in a game was two months ago. The Tigers are improved and the Cardinals have been disappointing. St. Louis is 2-5 in its last seven games and starting washed-up Jon Lester. The lefty has a 7.08 ERA in four starts with the Cardinals and is 3-6 lifetime versus Detroit with a 5.40 ERA in 13 career starts. Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight games against southpaw starters.
08-24-21	Angels -131 v. Orioles	Top	14-8	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month. Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League. Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances. Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span. The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins.
08-23-21	Royals v. Astros -1.5		7-1	Loss	-121	15 h 48 m	Show
The Astros are in a blowout spot and the motivation should be there after they lost three of four at Kansas City last week. Veteran Zack Greinke is just the pitcher to hold the Royals in check while the powerful Houston offense does its damage against Daniel Lynch. The rebuilding Royals actually enter this matchup having just swept the Cubs in Chicago. The Royals, though, are not a good road team and the Cubs hoisted the white flag at the trade deadline. The Cubs' lineup looks like a minor league roster now. Daniel Lynch gets another start in his audition with the Royals. He has a 5.12 ERA. The Astros just saw him six days ago. Lynch shut the Astros down holding them to one run in seven innings. I don't see that happening again. Houston leads the majors in batting average and is second in slugging percentage. Greinke is having another solid year going 11-3 with a 3.43 ERA.
08-23-21	Jaguars v. Saints -4	Top	21-23	Loss	-110	21 h 23 m	Show
The Saints had a shot to end the Ravens' preseason win streak, which has reached an NFL record-tying 19 consecutive victories, but fell, 17-14, last week. The Sains turned the ball over six times yet still only lost by three points to Baltimore. Saints coach Sean Payton was not happy with the loss, nor his team's performance. The Saints are one of those few teams who still haven't decided on a starting QB. That means big minutes for Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as they battle it out. They'll be operating against a weak Jacksonville defense that surrendered nearly 250 yards against the Browns backups during the first half last week. The Jaguars defense proved vulnerable to screen passes. The Saints are a strong screen pass team. Cleveland backups also handled Jacksonville's offensive line recording four sacks. The Jaguars gave up 44 sacks last season and will be without two and possibly three starting offensive linemen against the Saints. Center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell are out and right guard A.J. Cann is questionable due to a positive COVID-19 test. The Saints can generate a strong pass rush playing on turf at home in an extremely loud indoor setting against a banged-up offensive line. So Urban Meyer would be wise to limit Trevor Lawrence's playing time.
08-23-21	White Sox -107 v. Blue Jays		1-2	Loss	-107	14 h 49 m	Show
Better team, better starting pitcher laying a short price. That sums up why I like the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Lance Lynn versus Alek Manoah. The steady Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run during each of his last four road starts. The White Sox are expected to have shortstop Tim Anderson back in the lineup. He's the White Sox leading hitter at .303. Anderson has sat out the last two games due to general soreness. Toronto has dropped six of its last eight games. Manoah is an exciting young pitcher, who can rack up a lot of strikeouts. But he's inconsistent. Manoah gave up seven runs in just three innings during his last start, a 12-6 loss to the Nationals six days ago.
08-22-21	Angels v. Indians -127		0-3	Win	100	15 h 49 m	Show
The Indians are going for a three-game sweep here against the Angels, a team they dominate. Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games versus the Angels. The Angels have been tagged for 24 runs during their last three games. They are vulnerable again to giving up a lot of runs starting Jose Suarez. He's proving unworthy of holding down a big league starting spot allowing 17 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 25 innings. Suarez doesn't go deep into games either. Cal Quantrill is turning into a solid, trustworthy pitcher for Cleveland. He's 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 33 appearances, including 15 starts. Quantrill has surrendered just five earned runs in four starts this month totaling 24 innings.
08-22-21	White Sox +115 v. Rays		0-9	Loss	-100	9 h 58 m	Show
Often opponents struggle at quirky Tropicana Field when taking on the home Rays. Not the White Sox. They have shown they can handle Astroturf winning nine of the past 12 times on that surface. Chicago also is 6-2 in its last eight games at Tampa. The price is right to back the White Sox here in a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Chris Archer. It's Archer who has the bigger name. But Lopez is the more effective pitcher. Lopez has pitched well both starting and out of the bullpen. He hasn't given up more than one earned run during any of his 11 appearances this season compiling a 2-0 mark and 1.08 ERA. He held the A's scoreless in five innings allowing only one hit during his last start this past Tuesday. Archer hasn't been good for the past few years. It's to the point where you must wonder if Archer is washed up? This will be his first start since coming off the 60-day injured list this week. He's 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA this year. Archer's walk ratio has gone up each of the last three seasons he's pitched. It remains to be seen how effective he can still be. He sure doesn't figure to pitch very long in this one.
08-22-21	Giants +5 v. Browns	Top	13-17	Win	100	31 h 31 m	Show
The Browns don't care about this game. Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski will be playing very few of his starters and the ones who get into the game will see little action. The Giants don't have that luxury. While Saquon Barkley and Kenney Golladay aren't going to play, Giants QB's will have a number of other weapons plus playing time from their starting offensive line. The Browns' best defensive backs are not healthy and won't be playing. The edge is going to be with the Giants as far as number of starters playing. That's a big edge especially when Stefanski's top priority isn't winning the game. The teams have conducted scrimmages and practices against each other the past four days. During this time, Giants wide receiver Sterling Shephard has been a star against Cleveland's decimated secondary. The person who could take this game the most personally is Giants safety Jabrill Peppers, who played for the Browns before coming to New York. He was extremely animated during the scrimmages.
08-21-21	Colts v. Vikings -139	Top	12-10	Loss	-139	17 h 47 m	Show
Mike Zimmer was furious after the Broncos embarrassed his Vikings, 33-6, last week. Expect much better from Minnesota's reserves. Zimmer not only has kicked their butts, but he's going to be playing starters in this preseason game after sitting out 31 players against Denver. The key Viking who is going to play isn't Kirk Cousins. It's star defensive lineman Danielle Hunter, who had a combined 29 sacks in 2018-19 before missing last season with injury. Hunter is going to be a nightmare matchup for the Colts, who are extremely vulnerable at offensive left tackle with Eric Fisher out. Colts coach Frank Reich is going to look at some of his starters, although his incentive to win probably can't match Zimmer's. The Colts just want to come out healthy having already been hit by injuries, including losing Carson Wentz. That has forced a starting QB battle between Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. Both looked good last week. However, that was against the reserve unit of the Panthers. The Vikings' defense will present much more of a test, so much that Reich may not want to risk too much playing time for Eason and Ehlinger. This would mean minutes for fourth-stringer Brett Hundley, who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster after multiple failures to impress. Minnesota should stay on the attack even after Cousins departs. The Vikings have a backup QB job on the line between Jake Browning and Kellen Mond.
08-21-21	Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5		10-1	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
Jordan Lyles. Fenway Park. Total opening at less than 10. Any other questions why Over makes sense here? Didn't think so but just in case here's some more evidence why this total should go Over. Eduardo Rodriguez starts for the Red Sox. He's been disappointing with a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has a 4.91 career ERA against Texas in five starts. Lyles really shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. He has a 5.55 ERA and 1.48 ratio. Lyles has been especially brutal this month with a 9.00 ERA in three starts. He also has an 8.56 ERA lifetime against Boston in three starts. The wind is blowing in from left at eight mph. But this is off-set by Dan Iassogna slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 14-7 in games he's been behind the plate this season.
08-21-21	Jets v. Packers OVER 30.5		23-14	Win	100	5 h 53 m	Show
I understand that the Under has covered in 17 of the first 20 preseason games going into today. But a lot would have to go right for this total to stay Under considering how low it is. The Jets and Packers have been scrimmaging against each other. The Jets' ground game has looked decent. Some of that has to do with the Packers missing their two best run defending linemen. This isn't going to change, though, because the Packers are going to play backups in this game. The Jets have to get their passing game working. So they should be airing the ball out. Zach Wilson should see action. The Jets can risk that knowing the Packers won't be using their defensive starters. Wilson has to get some real game experience. Wilson has multiple decent receivers. The Packers, too, have outstanding receiver depth. The Jets have arguably the worst cornerback depth in the NFL. Third-stringer Kurt Benkert is likely to play most of the game for Green Bay. He has a gunslinger mentality rather than a checkdown mindset. Benkert was close to the late Greg Knapp, the long-time QB coach who recently died in a cycling accident. Benkert got to know Knapp when they both were with the Falcons. It wouldn't surprise me to see Benkert play well in this dedication game to Knapp.
08-20-21	Mets v. Dodgers -1.5		2-3	Loss	-116	11 h 45 m	Show
Walker Buehler is the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom out, if not all of baseball. Buehler is 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA. He is in tremendous form holding opponents to one run or fewer in his last five starts. This includes giving up one run to the Mets this past Saturday in New York. The Dodgers are making their move winning 11 of their last 12 games. The Mets are going the other way, losers of six of their past seven. LA had its way when it faced Carlos Carrasco five days ago getting to him for six runs in two innings. The Dodgers hit three homers off Carrasco during his brief performance. Carraso is struggling after missing the first three months of the season due to a torn hamstring. He's given up 10 runs during his past two starts spanning only three innings.
08-20-21	Montreal v. Calgary UNDER 44		22-28	Loss	-110	9 h 20 m	Show
Calgary was struggling to produce TD's - and that was before starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell went down with a broken leg. Now the Stampeders have to make due with a pair of untested backup QB's, Michael O'Connor and Jake Maier. They've been splitting practice reps this week. I'm not expecting much from either one against a Montreal defense that held Edmonton out of the end zone for more than 58 minutes during last week's game. That was Montreal's first game of the season. The scary thing was the Als were saying their defense still was capable of playing better, much better. Here's an ideal chance for them with Mitchell out. I'm expecting a conservative game from both teams. The Als figure to run big back William Stanback a lot. He carried 18 times last week. That's going to eat clock. The Under has cashed nine of the last 12 times these teams have met.
08-20-21	Chiefs -150 v. Cardinals	Top	17-10	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
There's nothing fancy in this one.The Chiefs are going to play their starters for at least half the game against the Cardinals. This comes from Andy Reid, while the Cardinals are hardly going to play their starters. That comes from Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsburgy doesn't want to risk any more injuries with his defense already banged-up with multiple injuries. Reid has game-planned for this matchup more than Kingsbury. He's also the superior coach. The Cardinals have lost and failed to cover four of their last five preseason games.
08-20-21	Royals v. Cubs +104		6-2	Loss	-100	12 h 48 m	Show
The sting of having dealt away core stars Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo could be wearing off for the Cubs. They've won two in a row. But the respect for the Cubs remains well down. How down? The oddsmaker opened the Royals a road favorite with Kansas City starting Brad Keller. Keller is 7-12 with a 5.62 ERA. He's in bad form, too, going 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA during his last three starts. He has a 5.88 day time ERA. I'm not enamored of Cubs starter Zach Davies. But he's off a positive start holding the Marlins to three unearned runs on four hits in six innings this past Saturday. Davies struck out seven and walked just one. He is 3-1 in day games with a 2.85 ERA. I would take him above Keller. The Royals are bad on the road going 20-37.
08-19-21	Patriots -115 v. Eagles	Top	35-0	Win	100	8 h 55 m	Show
Mac Jones is pushing Cam Newton for the starting QB spot in New England. That battle could be determined here. This is the second of three preseason games for the Patriots. Bill Belichick may decide not to play his starters much, if any, during the final preseason game. I like the Patriots' QB rotation more than the Eagles, whose top two QB's are raw Jalen Hurts and washed-up Joe Flacco. I certainly would give Belichick a monster edge against the Eagles' new coaching staff. These two teams held joint practices during the week. So Belichick will be familiar with the Eagles. The Patriots are going to have a strong defense. They kept things under wrap in Week 1 of the preseason. They shouldn't be as vanilla this week.
08-19-21	Twins v. Yankees UNDER 10.5		5-7	Loss	-114	7 h 33 m	Show
The pitching matchup is John Gant versus Jamison Taillon. So the total may seem right. But it's a tad too high. Gant is just another guy. He has a 4.15 ERA in seven appearances with the Twins since coming from the Cardinals in a trade. The Yankees have never seen Gant so that's a disadvantage for them. The Yankees also haven't broken the 5-run barrier during their last five games. Taillon has been awesome his past 11 starts going 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA.
08-17-21	Mets v. Giants UNDER 8	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
Marcus Stroman is a solid pitcher with a history of pitching well down the stretch. Stroman has held up his end of the bargain for the Mets with a 2.78 ERA. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb has become a huge below-the-radar star especially when pitching at home where he's compiled a 1.58 ERA. Webb is in strong form, too, with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. Webb faces a Mets lineup that is far below average in many of the key offensive categories, including 29th in scoring. The forecast is for wind blowing out to left at around 13 mph, but this is off-set by Oracle Park being a pitcher's park and Jeremie Rehak slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 48-33 (59 percent) during Rehak's four-year big league career.
08-16-21	Mets v. Giants -1.5	Top	5-7	Win	110	19 h 24 m	Show
The Mets just got swept by the Dodgers at home and now they have to fly cross-country after having played in the ESPN Sunday night game. Major League Baseball certainly didn't do the Mets a favor here with this scheduling spot. It's the first time the Mets have been on the West Coast - a three hour time difference for them - since June 6. Throw in a late night/early morning long flight and I don't see how the Mets can be sharp going against a Giants team that is a dominant 40-18 at home. The Mets are 23-35 on the road. They are hurting in the middle infield with Javier Baez and Franscico Lindor both out. New York also is facing Kevin Gausman, who has been the Giants' best pitcher with an 11-5 record and 2.29 ERA. Gausman is back in strong form, too, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets average the second-fewest runs per game in the majors. Rich Hill is expected to get the start for the Mets, but New York is a fade no matter who starts. Hill has a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are positioned well for this game. They rested catcher Buster Posey Sunday while also limiting the playing time of Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria. This is a real kill spot for the Giants so I'm going to lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line and turn a huge lay price into a plus price.
08-15-21	Cardinals v. Royals +112	Top	7-2	Loss	-100	9 h 36 m	Show
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here. Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007. The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties. Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road. The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties. Wrong team favored here.
08-15-21	Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10.5		2-6	Loss	-112	6 h 14 m	Show
Aside from John Means, the Orioles have absolutely no pitching. The Orioles' pitching staff is running on fumes and it's still mid-August. Baltimore is giving up an average of 9.8 runs during its last 10 games! So I have to expect there will be at least 11 runs scored in this matchup with lefty Keegan Akin facing southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. An important sidebar is the presence of Greg Gipson, who is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 16-5 in games he has been behind the plate this season. That 76 percent Over figure is tied for the highest umpire Over percentage in baseball. Akin can take his rightful place as one of the worst starters in the big leagues. He is 0-6 with an 8.23 ERA. The Red Sox rank fifth in the majors in runs and are third in batting average. Rodriguez has been largely disappointing this year with a 5.24 ERA. The Orioles can hit lefties. They rank among the top four in batting average against them.
08-15-21	Braves v. Nationals UNDER 10		6-5	Loss	-107	6 h 35 m	Show
I see this as a sneaky Under with the maligned Drew Smyly facing underrated Paolo Espino. The 32-year-old Smyly has come through for the Braves in a major way. He's proven durable and reliable to the surprise of many. Smyly has a 3.32 ERA in his last 12 starts. He's faced the Nationals twice this season giving up two earned runs with 12 strikeouts in 12 innings. Washington traded several of its key hitters at the trade deadline. The Nationals are now a below average offense. They have scored 4 or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. Espino has been solid at home with a 3.18 ERA in seven starts at Nationals Park.
08-15-21	Panthers v. Colts -130	Top	18-21	Win	100	28 h 45 m	Show
Now that Panthers coach Matt Ruhle has made it official that he won't be playing Sam Darnold and the rest of his starters, I'm going to take the Colts on the money line. The Panthers are an improving team. But I question their depth. Their backup quarterbacks are P.J. Walker and Will Grier. The Colts are a solid, well-coached team. I like their depth better than Carolina's especially at the skill positions. A key here is the Colts figure to open their playbook much more than the Panthers. There's a strong possibility Carson Wentz won't be ready opening week. The Colts need to find out if either Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger are good enough to be an NFL starter for Week 1. They've been splitting first team reps. Both had strong practices on Thursday, according to camp reports. This is noteworthy because that practice was a scrimmage against the Panthers. I trust Frank Reich to guide Eason and Ehlinger putting them in good spots to do well against the Panthers' second and third-string. Being home also is a huge plus for Eason and Ehlinger.
08-14-21	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5		8-30	Win	100	10 h 13 m	Show
The Roughriders have dominated Hamilton at home going 17-3-1 ATS during the past 21 meetings. They catch the Tiger-Cats playing their second consecutive road game. That's not a good way to open the season. Hamilton was not impressive opening week losing, 19-6, to Winnipeg looking horrible the last three quarters. Saskatchewan built a 32-9 halftime lead in its opener at home last week against BC and held on to win, 33-29. I don't see the Roughriders having any type of letdown after last week's scare. They are tough at Mosaic and also in a favorite's role going 11-5-1 ATS the past 16 times when laying points. The Tiger-Cats aren't expected to have injured running back Don Jackson.
08-14-21	Padres -1.5 v. Diamondbacks		0-7	Loss	-120	10 h 21 m	Show
The Diamondbacks have won the first two games of this series. I don't see them winning a third straight, especially facing a hot Joe Musgrove. So does the oddsmaker at this huge lay price. I see this as a kill spot for San Diego so I'll greatly reduce the vigorish by laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the Padres. Musgrove is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA during his last four starts. The righthander has a 2.97 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in six appearances, including five starts. The Diamondbacks have lost 42 of their last 55 games against a righty starter. Arizona has the worst record in the majors. Arizona is giving Tyler Gilbert a starting shot here. This will be his first career start for the Diamondbacks. He faces a top-10 offense.
08-14-21	Texans v. Packers -3	Top	26-7	Loss	-108	61 h 42 m	Show
Much is being made of how untested Jordan Love is. But compared to Houston rookie QB Davis Mills, Love is Aaron Rodgers. Love and Mills figure to be the key storylines in the Texans-Packers Week 1 preseason game. Both figure to play a lot in this game. Aaron Rodgers isn't playing. Deshaun Watson may not even make the trip to Green Bay. He's certainly not playing. Watson has been nothing but a huge distraction during the Texans' training camp with trade rumors swirling around him and lawsuits from 22 women. Tyrod Taylor is Houston's starting QB. The Texans know what he can do. So does every other team in the NFL. They all know Taylor is a journeyman, who has gotten more conservative with each season. The Chargers are still counting their blessing for the inept team doctor who accidentally punctured Taylor's lung allowing Justin Herbert to become their starting quarterback last year. Taylor hasn't looked good during training camp. Mills has looked downright terrible. Mills has had trouble picking up the speed of the NFL game. He threw four interceptions during one red zone-focused practice last week. Not helping Mills is the Texans' lack of talent and overhauled roster with some 50 new players. Houston is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Green Bay's defense should be way ahead of Houston's offense. It remains to be seen if Love will be a playmaker, or a checkdown, game-manager type. But the Packers do have a deep set of receivers and the Texans have a weak defense especially in the secondary. Kurt Benkert is Green Bay's third-string QB and figures to see action, too. Benkert has three NFL seasons of experience. He's shown enough for the Packers to cut Blake Bortles, who would not have been a bad third-string quarterback. Even though this is a preseason game where randomness is increased, there's still no need to overthink this. The Packers are the deeper and superior team to the visiting Texans. I would take Love - sight unseen - against any of the Texans QB's except Watson.