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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-16-18	Jets +124 v. Golden Knights		2-4	Loss	-100	12 h 16 m	Show
The Golden Knights have thrived all season because they were playing on house money. The pressure always was on the other team knowing they were taking on an expansion club. But now all the pressure is on Las Vegas to win this home game. Expectations have never been higher. Winnipeg has more star power and is a strong road club going 4-1 in its five away playoff games. The lone loss occurred in overtime to the Predators. The Jets have solidly won on the road, too, outscoring their foes, 21-9, during their five away Stanley Cup matchups. Las Vegas upset Winnipeg at Bell MTS Centre, 3-1, two days ago. The Jets outshot the Golden Knights, but didn't play well. Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele and Dustin Byfuglien all had off-nights. That's not likely to happen again as these are all top-30 players. Las Vegas could be without underrated David Perron, its third-leading scorer. The past six times the Jets have lost they have come back to win in their following game. Look for that pattern to continue here.
05-16-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225	Top	105-127	Loss	-110	13 h 0 m	Show
Those of us who had the Under in Game 1 of this series know we should have cashed instead of either lost or pushed due to the Rockets unnecessary fouling at the end when the outcome already was decided. Under was the right play in the opener and it remains the right play at this current number for Game 2 today. Nothing has changed except the Rockets should be playing more intense and smarter defense after giving up 119 points. The Warriors deserved their point total. They played well in transition, took advantage of Houston's sloppy ballhandling and received a lot of open looks. Houston is capable of playing much better defense. Only five teams allowed fewer points per game than the Rockets during the season. It was a bad break for the Under when Trevor Ariza was limited to less than 24 minutes because of foul trouble. He's a much superior defensive player to his replacements, Ryan Anderson and Gerald Green. The Rockets aren't going to push pace so much. They have too much first-hand respect now for the Warriors' devastating transition game. Golden State put up 18 points just on fast-break points. The Warriors are underrated defensively. Only two teams had a better defensive field goal percentage than the Warriors during the regular season. Draymond Green is one of the top five defensive players in the NBA. He should play smarter, too, knowing he's not going to get calls in Houston. There was no reason for him to get that early technical foul during Game 1 when he purposely bumped into James Harden when Harden was just trying to return up-court. The five stars - Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harden and Chris Paul - were all hot shooting a combined 52.4 percent from the floor. I don't see all of them being as hot for a second straight game.
05-16-18	Indians -1.5 v. Tigers		6-0	Win	100	3 h 43 m	Show
Trevor Bauer has had six quality outings in his last seven starts. I regard him as a "B" level pitcher. He's facing a Tigers lineup that is missing three regulars - Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario and Leonys Martin. Detroit's lineup wasn't potent even before these injuries. Bauer holds a monster edge on Detroit's Ryan Carpenter, who will be making just his second big league start. Carpenter has a 7.36 ERA in the majors. He was 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA with Toledo in the minors. The Tigers aren't likely to have closer Shane Greene either. Greene has pitched the past four days. But that shouldn't even matter as I see this as a kill spot for the Indians.
05-15-18	Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5	Top	94-107	Loss	-110	24 h 55 m	Show
The Celtics have scored 108 or more points in five of their last seven games, including winning 108-83 in Game 1 this past Sunday. The Celtics prefer to play at a fast tempo being younger and more athletic than the Cavaliers. The Over has cashed in 10 of Boston's past 12 home games. Both teams should have the rust off having been idle for nearly a week until playing on Sunday. A big key to this handicap, though, is the belief that the Cavaliers will shoot better and LeBron James will have a huge offensive performance. T.he Cavaliers missed 22 of 26 shots from 3-point range in shooting just 36 percent from the floor in Game 1. James scored only 15 points while shooting just 5-of-16 from the floor. That was nearly 13 points below his season average. Cleveland has gone Over the last four times it failed to cover. There also were just 33 free throws attempted in Game 1. Look for more fouls to be called in Game 2.
05-15-18	Cubs -124 v. Braves		3-2	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
The Braves have been one of rhe surprise teams this season, but this is a bad spot for them. Atlanta is home for the first time in nine days. So concentration could be a problem. The Braves just beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday in a makeup game. So they lost their off day to get their domestic lives in order following a lengthy road trip. Look for the Cubs to even the series. They have won the past five times when playing in Atlanta. Yu Darvish goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Darvish is much better than he's shown so far with the Cubs. He returns from the DL supposedly with adjustments made. I see him getting turned around. Foltynewicz doesn't go deep into games putting a strain on a taxed Braves bullpen. He also has a poor history versus the Cubs with a lifetime mark of 0-2 and 7.36 ERA. The Braves are 3-12 in the righthander's last 15 starts. The Cubs have won 74 percent of their past 42 road games against righthanded starters.
05-15-18	Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5		0-4	Loss	-113	3 h 22 m	Show
Bottom line here is simple: I just don't believe these two starters merit a total of less than 8. German Marquez has pitched better away from Coors Field, but he's a bottom of the rotation type with a 5.48 lifetime ERA versus the Padres, including four starts. Jordan Lyles is a middle reliever, who has yet to prove he is starter material. He has a 6.07 lifetime ERA against the Rockies in 10 appearances, including four starts.
05-14-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225	Top	119-106	Push	0	15 h 14 m	Show
It's easy to just think offense with all the superstars the Warriors and Rockets have. But these teams can play defense, too. Golden State had the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA while the Rockets surrendered the sixth-fewest points and ranked seventh in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Warriors held the high-scoring Pelicans, who averaged an NBA third-best 111.7 points per game during the regular season, to only 98 points during their last two games. Both Golden State and Houston haven't played in six days. So there's a rust factor. The Rockets held the Jazz to an average of just 93.6 points during the last three games of their past series. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the Rockets have played on three or more days rest. These teams have had more than ample time to prepare. The intensity and focus levels should be sky high. Clint Capela has stepped up to become a defensive force inside averaging nearly three blocked shots per game in the postseason. The Warriors have two outstanding defenders in Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who is in a cold streak shooting-wise, are above average defensive players, too.
05-14-18	Golden Knights +135 v. Jets		3-1	Win	135	11 h 60 m	Show
A combination of the Jets riding the adrenalin after winning their series against the Predators in seven games and the Golden Knights starting flat following being idle for five days helped result in Winnipeg winning the opening game of this Western Conference Finals, 4-2, this past Saturday. Fresh off eliminating the defending Western Conference champion Predators, the Jets scored 65 seconds into Game 1 against Las Vegas then scored a power play goal and another goal in which goalie interference was reversed after being initially ruled. The Golden Knights couldn't come back from a 3-0 deficit. It's more than obvious by now that Las Vegas isn't your typical expansion team, though. I believe the Golden Knights are nearly as good - if not just as good - as Winnipeg. So there's value taking this price with the Golden Knights, who should be more ready in Game 2. The Golden Knights are resilient and have proven themselves on the road going 30-18-3, including 4-2 in the postseason. They have underrated goal scorers, a solid defense and a big goalie edge with Marc-Andre Fleury against Connor Hellebuyck. The Golden Knights eliminated the Kings and Sharks as part of going 8-3 in the playoffs proving their regular-season success certainly wasn't a fluke. The Jets are strong at home. However, they had lost their prevous two games at Bell MTS Centre before defeating the Golden Knights. The Jets could subconsciously letdown, too, having won a Game 7 against Nashville and Game 1 against Las Vegas all in the span of three days.
05-14-18	Mariners v. Twins -105		1-0	Loss	-105	9 h 2 m	Show
Seattle is about to experience life without its rock, Robinson Cano. The eight-time All-Star second baseman is out with a broken hand suffered on Sunday. That's a shock for the Mariners. I'm going to fade them in this their first game without Cano this season. It's not just Cano being out. The Mariners are pitching journeyman lefty Wade LeBlanc. The Twins are 10-1 (91%) in their last 11 home games when facing a southpaw starter. The Twins have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts.
05-14-18	Rays v. Royals OVER 9		2-1	Loss	-120	9 h 20 m	Show
The Rays are surrendering an average of 8.7 runs in their last four games. The Royals are giving up an average of 8.1 runs during their last six games. Neither bullpen is strong and the starting pitching matchup pits two bad southpaws, Ryan Yarborough versus Eric Skoglund. Throw in weather conditions where the wind is blowing out at 10-15 mph and I'll wager that these two teams combine to hit the double-digit scoring barrier.
05-13-18	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 205	Top	83-108	Win	100	21 h 28 m	Show
Rust factor, day time start and current form all should factor in this game going Under the total. Cleveland hasn't played in six days and the Cavaliers weren't challenged defensively by the Raptors then winning, 128-93.. Boston last played on Wednesday. The Cavaliers have tightened up their defense during the postseason holding foes to 103 points or fewer in seven of their 11 playoff games. The Celtics are all about defense ranking in the top-three in all the major defensive categories. Boston is giving up an average of 98.5 points during its last eight playoff games. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 11 meetings between the two teams in Boston. Matchup-wise, the Celtics have more defensive-minded depth at the wings to throw at LeBron James than last season. The Cavaliers, of course, don't have to worry about Kyrie Irving, who remains out.
05-11-18	Reds v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	6-2	Loss	-100	12 h 51 m	Show
The Reds can hope. But their hopes are going to be in vain if they expect Matt Harvey to resmeble anything like his All-Star form of 2013 before multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, derailed his effectiveness. Harvey is 9-19 during the past three seasons with ERA's of 4.86, 6.70 last season and 7.00 in four starts this season. He's surrendered six homers in 27 innings this year and hasn't pitched in eight days. So I'm certainly not expecting much from Harvey. Neither should the Reds. Harvey is likely to be rusty. So this could mean an early call for the Cincinnati bullpen, which isn't very good except for closer Raisel Iglesias and he carries a high fatigue rating having pitching 3 1/3 innings the past two days throwing 42 pitches. The Dodgers have been underachieving. They are due and they aren't going to lack motivation after losing 4-1 to the Reds last night. The Reds have the worst record in the National League at 11-27. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is far more effective pitching at home where his ERA is 1.98 this season.
05-11-18	Brewers v. Rockies -125		11-10	Loss	-125	10 h 45 m	Show
Chad Bettis has been pitching very well for the Rockies this season. He's 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. Colorado is 19-7 in his last 26 home starts. The Rockies are back to full health, too. So I'm willing to lay this price with Bettis against Brandon Woodruff, who is filling in for Zach Davies. The Brewers are 2-7 the past nine times facing a foe with a winning record.
05-11-18	Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6		4-2	Push	0	16 h 8 m	Show
It's difficult not to think offense with these two teams involved. But I'm projecting a lower-scoring game than anticipated in the opener of this Eastern Conference final. Tampa Bay hasn't played in five days. It's going to take a while for the Lightning to rev up their offense and they need to be careful given the offensive firepower of Washington defenseman John Carlson. The Lightning led the NHL in scoring averaging 3.5 goals per game. Tampa Bay, though, also has been playing outstanding defense giving up two goals or fewer in five of its last seven games. When having ample rest - which is the case here - Andrei Vasilevskiy may be the best goalie in hockey. Vasilevskiy has been sharp in the playoffs with a 2.2 goals-against average and .927 save percentage. He had a .930 save percentage against Washington in three regular season games this season. Vasilevskiy may not have to deal with Nicklas Backstrom either. The Capitals' star center is dealing with an upper body injury that prevented him from playing in the last game. Goalie Braden Holtby has stepped up in the postseason for the Capitals giving up 2.04 goals per game. The Capitals haven't surrendered more than three goals per game during their last 10 games.
05-10-18	Twins +136 v. Angels		4-7	Loss	-100	14 h 29 m	Show
I see excellent value to the Twins. The spot and pitching matchup is good for them. Minnesota was idle on Wednesday and has won five in a row. The Twins are averaging 6.4 runs during their win streak and playing well in all aspects. They are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Angels. There's a good chance the Twins activate Byron Buxton from the DL for this game. He could be the premier defensive centerfielder in baseball. The Angels blanked the Rockies in Colorado Wednesday. This is their first home game in a week so their concentration may be off. The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios against Garrett Richards. I regard the 23-year-old Berrios as not just an emerging star, but a star already. Richards made just 12 starts the previous two years due to serios injuries. He has been up and down this season. Just two starts ago he was racked at home by the Yankees giving up five earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. The Angels have played much better on the road than at home where they are 8-10 this season.
05-10-18	Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5	Top	5-1	Win	125	14 h 41 m	Show
The Predators had their defensive game of the year in shutting out the Jets, 4-0, in Game 6 of their Western Conference Stanley Cup series this past Monday. I don't see it happening again. Pekka Rinne can't be that good again. He's been inconsistent in the series. The Jets are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL because they have star scorers and play a speed, full-attack style. Only once in their last 23 games have the Jets failed to produce at least three goals in consecutive games. Discount that last game and the Jets are averaging 4.5 goals per game versus Nashville. The Jets aren't changing their method of operation either. That's according to their coach, Paul Maurice. He said, "There's no big speech or departure from our game. The important one (message) that was delivered all year is to enjoy what we do. Have the confidence that you're going to go out and perform at your best. You can't be on pins and needles." So if the Jets lose they are going to lose playing their aggressive game. The Over is 13-5-1 when the Jets have been in action following two days of rest. The extra day should ensure fresh legs and a strong resolve to break through. Nashville is no slouch offensively with excellent offensive-minded defensemen. The Predators are a top-seven scoring team. The Over has cashed in seven of their last nine home games. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams, there have been at least eight goals scored in six of the games. This being a Game 7, too, there exists the strong possibility of one or two open net goals being scored if the game is close.
05-09-18	76ers v. Celtics +1	Top	112-114	Win	102	13 h 17 m	Show
The 76ers have some outstanding young talent. But they don't have the savvy, experience and coaching to beat the Celtics on the road. Boston leads this series 3-1 by defeating the 76ers by 16 and five points, respectively, at home along with an overtime road win in Game 3. The 76ers staved off elimination by downing the Celtics, 103-92, at home in Game 4 two days ago. The 76ers were sparked by T.J. McConnel, who scored a career-high 19 points after being inserted into the starting lineup. The 76ers were the more motivated and physical team. They also dominated in the paint. I don't see any of these factors standing up again with the teams returning to Boston. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference, if not all of basketball. He'll have a solid game plan and he has the brains to get the best of 76ers coach Brett Brown with in-game adjustments. The Celtics have proven they can win without Kyrie Irving. They have won and covered 11 of their last 12 home games. The Celtics have a top-three defense. The 76ers' defense is underrated, but it is not as good on the road. Philadelphia has given up an average of 109.3 points during its past six away matchups.
05-09-18	Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9		2-5	Loss	-120	12 h 48 m	Show
This total is set too low given a pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Jaime Garica. LeBlanc is a 33-year-old journeyman who will be making only his second big league start in three years. He's filling in for injured Erasmo Ramirez. Garcia has turned into a journeyman after a promising career with the Cardinals was derailed by constant injuries. The southpaw has gotten worse since the start of the season with an 0-2 record and 9.88 ERA during his last three starts. The Mariners have one of the better offenses against lefthanders. The Blue Jays also are without closer Robert Osuna, who is awaiting a likely suspension. This not only leaves Toronto vulnerable in the ninth inning, but also weakens the team in the seventh and eighth innings.
05-08-18	Astros v. A's UNDER 8	Top	4-2	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
Forget that the Astros scored 16 runs on the A's in Monday night's game. This matchup is going to be a pitching duel between Lance McCullers Jr. and Sean Manaea, two of my favorite young and promising pitchers. McCullers can be streaky. Right now he's in great from going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. His night ERA this season is 1.42. The A's aren't swinging hot bats. They are averaging only two runs per game during their last three games and haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. Oakland may not have outfielder Stephen Piscotty back in its lineup either. Piscotty's mother passed away on Sunday night and he has been away from the team. Manaea is having a break through season going 4-3 with a 1.63 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA when pitching at spacious and pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. The Under is 10-1-1 during Manea's last 12 starts. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's a plus for the under given Eddings' generous strike zone. The under has cashed four of five times Eddings has been behind the plate this year.
05-07-18	Predators v. Jets -145		4-0	Loss	-145	11 h 32 m	Show
The Jets have looked better than the Predators for much of this series and I see them getting it done here at home where they have won 13 of the last 14 times at Bell MTS Palce. Long-term, the Jets have won won 81 percent of their last 52 home games. The Jets really took control scoring four goals in the second period on their way to blasting the Predators, 6-2, this past Saturday in Nashville. Winnipeg is healthy, which is huge at this late juncture. I like the way the Jets are clamping down defensively and the production they're getting from their first line of Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Scheifele has scored nine goals in 10 playoff games.
05-07-18	Raptors +6 v. Cavs	Top	93-128	Loss	-110	19 h 51 m	Show
I don't see Dwane Casey letting the Raptors quit here. Yes, Toronto is down 3-0 in the series. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. But this has been a very competitive series. The Raptors lost by one point in overtime in Game 1 despite never trailing during regulation. Toronto lost by two points in Game 3 at Cleveland when LeBron James hit a basket at the buzzer. The Raptors made only 38 percent of their uncontested shots from the floor during those two defeats. So the looks are there. DeMar DeRozan is due to step up. Even if he doesn't, though, Kyle Lowery is playing well averaging 22 points and eights assists in the series while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. The Raptors have a strong bench. James is playing at a superhuman level. However, he's not getting much help from his teammates. It's been that way during the playoffs and regular season for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been overpiced all season due to James. That hasn't changed here. Cleveland has covered only 28 percent of the time during the past 53 instances when laying three or more points. They are 0-7 ATS the last seven times as home favorites.
05-07-18	Twins +130 v. Cardinals		6-0	Win	130	13 h 34 m	Show
The Twins are playing better winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They are in a great spot to make it four victories in a row. The Cardinals just got through surviving a 14-inning, 4-3 win against the Cubs in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. St. Louis likely won't have its best offensive player, Tommy Pham, in the starting lineup due to a groin injury. Closer Bud Norris probably is out, too. The Cardinals' bullpen is carrying a heavy fatigue rating having just concluded two extra inning games. But what really makes it rough for John Gant, set to make his first big league start of the season for the Cardinals, is no Yadier Molina. Forget Molina's contributions on offense. He's a Hall of Fame defensive backstop. Molina's intangibles such as calling pitches and framing strikes is off the charts as is his veteran leadership. The Twins are pitching Fernando Romero, a top-100 prospect. This will be his second big league start. Romero held Toronto scoreless in 5 1/3 innings during his big league debut this past Wednesday. Romero averaged 96 mph on his fastball while striking out five. Romero's upside is far higher than Gant's.
05-06-18	Rockets -5 v. Jazz	Top	100-87	Win	100	15 h 55 m	Show
There's too big of a class difference. Pure and simple. Can the Jazz cover this number? Sure - if they shoot 60 percent from 3-point range, the Rockets are uninspired and some unheralded guy like Joe Ingles has the game of his life. But none of that is likely to happen again like it did in Game 2. What has transpired is Houston is 6-1 ATS this season versus Utah. The Rockets have whipped the Jazz by 21, 11 and 11 points in their three games at Salt Lake City. The Rockets were motivated and on their game this past Friday - unlike in Game 2 - building a 30-point advantage in cruising to a 113-92 win. Nothing has changed. The Rockets have far too many weapons. James Harden is unstoppable. Chris Paul still is a superstar. Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and underrated Clint Capela give the Rockets far more weapons than the Jazz. Utah is heavily reliant upon rookie Donovan Mitchell especially with Ricky Rubio out. Mitchell missed 12 of 16 shots from the floor in Game 3 perhaps feeling the strain of being so heavily counted on. Now there's a chance the Jazz could be without their second-best frontcourt player as Derrick Favors is dealing with a sprained ankle. The Rockets very well could be the best team in basketball. It's not a good matchup for the Jazz, whose defensive strength is inside with rim protector Rudy Gobert not defending against 3-point shooters. Utah ranked 17th in defensive 3-point percentage. The Rockets already have 20 more free throw attempts than Utah and set an NBA record for most 3-point shots attempted.
05-06-18	Cubs +108 v. Cardinals	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	12 h 20 m	Show
Given that I prefer Jon Lester over Michael Wacha and the Cardinals have three important injuries, the Cubs are a worthy investment. Lester is having a strong season with a winning record and 2.73 ERA. The Cubs have won 68 percent of Lester's previous 59 starts. Lester has a solid 3.16 ERA in 15 career starts against St. Louis. Chicago is 4-0 the past four times Lester has gone against the Cardinals. I rate Wacha a tier lower than Lester. He's been fortunate to post a 4-1 mark this season with a 3.62 ERA. Wach has a bad history versus the Cubs going 4-7 with a 6.41 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. St. Louis is 0-4 the last four times Wacha has gone against the Cubs. St. Louis isn't likely to have Tommy Pham, its best offensive weapon, Yadier Molina and closer Bud Norris. All suffered injuries in the Cardinals' come-from-behind victory on Saturday. The Cardinals' bullpen is further depleted with Dominic Leone out with a biceps injured.
05-06-18	Bruins v. Lightning -1.5		1-3	Win	178	9 h 16 m	Show
I don't see the Bruins rallying from a 3-1 series deficit. I don't see them beating the Lightning in Tampa. So I'd rather go for the big payoff by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line instead of laying heavy juice on the money line. Boston surprised Tampa Bay by upsetting the Lightning on the road in Game 1. That served as a wake-up call for the Lightning. They've won the past three games since then outscoring the Burins by a combined 12-6 goals. The Bruins have lost in seven of their last nine away matchups. Tampa Bay has won 73 percent of its last 51 home contests. The Lightning's last six home victories all have been by more than one goal. Boston's task is made more difficult having lost defeseman Torey Krug for the series. He suffered an ankle injury in the last game. Not only is Krug huge defensively, but he was part of the Bruins' power-play unit. The Bruins' strength had been their power-play. They haven't scored an even-strength goal during the past two games. The Bruins have given up the first goal in each of the last three games. That's likely to prove fatal again. If the Bruins happen to be trailing by just one goal with several minutes left, it's likely they would pull their goalie giving the Lightning extra opportunities to score an open net goal and thus win by multiple goals.
05-05-18	Raptors +5 v. Cavs	Top	103-105	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
It doesn't matter that the Raptors entered the playoffs with the best record in the Eastern Conference and were the lone NBA team to rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. All that matters now is the Raptors are in do-or-die mode down 0-2 in this series and on the road. But should it matter? I think it should count for something. True, the Raptors have yet to prove they can win in Cleveland. Toronto, though, has improved each season. The Raptors are to the point where they can legitimately win the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The talent and coaching are there. So I'm going to back them here. The Cavaliers are in danger of a letdown after winning the first two games of this series on the road, including stealing Game 1. There shouldn't be any doubt about the Raptors' intensity for this matchup. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery are star players. They're due to play more consistent. Certainly Serge Ibaka is due to play much, much better. He isn't the player he once was, but I don't believe he's washed up either. Dwane Casey rates a major coaching edge on Tyronn Lue. I'm confident Casey will get the most from his team in this game and make proper adjustments. He has the talent and bench to do this. People would be looking at this series different if the Raptors had at least split at home. They never trailed during regulation in the opening game of this series yet lost by one point in overtime. Then James had a monster performance in Game 2 with 43 points. Kevin Love played well, too. Toronto got mentally down. It's hard to believe even James can top his great Game 2 performance and Love can't be trusted to play well. The Raptors can't afford to get down here - and they know it. Cleveland is not a dominant home team. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. They have either lost, or won by fewer than five points during these past six home games.
05-05-18	Penguins v. Capitals -110		3-6	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
The Penguins took advantage of Tom Wilson serving the first of a three-game suspension to even this series at 2-2 folowing their 3-1 home win this past Thursday. Devante Smith-Pelley, replacing Wilson on the Captials' first line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov, should fill more comfortable. So should T.J. Oshie, who ended a four-game scoring drought with the Capitals' lone goal in Game 4. The Captials are getting excellent offensive production from defensemen John Carlson and Brooks Orpik. So I see the Capitals making it 13 games out of their last 15 of scoring three or more goals. That should be enough to get it done at home against the Penguins. The Penguins had a losing road record during the regular season and are 5-19 in the playoffs under Mike Sullivan when giving up two or more goals. Braden Holtby is having an oustanding Stanley Cup with a 2.07 GAA and .924 save percentage and has a history of playing his best when home.
05-04-18	Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz	Top	113-92	Win	100	15 h 12 m	Show
Do you believe in the Jazz? I don't. Not against the Rockets. Oh, Houston, at least has to show up. It can't just take the fesity Jazz for granted. That's something the Rockets did early in their Game 2 matchup against Utah. Houston couldn't recover from falling 19 points down during a flat performance and lost, 116-108. Utah also shot 60 percent from 3-point range making 15 of 25 shots from beyond the arc. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City - and the spread becomes much shorter. I see the Rockets regaining their intensity. The alarm clock has sounded. It's wake-up time. That's enough to cover this number because Houston is a much better team. The Rockets had covered the past five games against the Jazz until the last matchup. Houston is 2-0 at Utah this season winning those games by an average of 11 points. The Jazz aren't hitting 60 percent of their 3-point shots again. They ranked 12th during the regular season in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.6 percent. The Rockets set a record for most 3-point shots taken during the season. The Rockets were above average in 3-point shooting percentage and ranked seventh in 3-point defense while the Jazz are 17th in 3-point percentage defense. Look for things to get back to normal with the Rockets winning and covering this Game 3.
05-04-18	Pirates v. Brewers -116	Top	6-4	Loss	-116	15 h 53 m	Show
We knew the Pirates were going to be bad this season and they are starting to prove that going 6-11 in their last 17 games, including losses in their last four games. Pittsburgh has lost in its last seven road games. I don't see the Pirates getting well against the Brewers, a team they have a history of struggling against. I'm looking to fade Nick Kingham. The long-time minor leaguer made his first big league start this past Sunday and took a perfect game into the seventh inning in a 5-0 win against the Cardinals. That was a huge thrill and a great debut. It certainly caught the Brewers' notice. Kingham has a 43-41 record in nine years in the minors. The Brewers are expected to have Travis Shaw and Ryan Braun in the lineup today. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise He was 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 2016. He had a bad season last year, but has returned to his form of two years ago with a 2-1 mark and 0.82 ERA. He has not allowed more than one run during each of his four starts this season. The 33-year-old is a classic late bloomer. Opponents are batting only .176 against him. If you discount the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, Milwaukee would be 11-0 in its last 11 games.
05-03-18	Predators v. Jets OVER 6		2-1	Loss	-106	19 h 25 m	Show
The oddsmaker finally has figured out that 6 is the right opening total for this series. However, that total still isn't high enough. The Over has cashed in six of the eight meetings the teams have had this season. This isn't a fluke There are a lot of shots on goal and aggressive, up-tempo play. Both teams are averaging four goals per game against each other. Winnipeg has scored 15 goals during the first three games of this series. The Jets play especially fast at home where they have notched three or more goals in 16 of their last 18 games at Bell MTS Centre. Nashville has scored three or more goals in 12 of its last 15 games. The Jets aren't going to change their style especially being home. It's up to the Predators to match it and I belive they will come out fast, too, just like last game when they scored three goals in the first period.
05-03-18	76ers v. Celtics UNDER 206.5	Top	103-108	Loss	-110	20 h 26 m	Show
It's not surprising Boston has one of the three best defenses in the NBA. But did you know the 76ers ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and second in defensive 3-point percentage? Yes, it's true. So why did the Celtics bury the 76ers, 117-101, in Game 1 of this series? The 76ers were tight and their lack of playoff experience - first time in the postseason since 2012 - really showed. The Celtics also were mind-bogging hot making 17 of 35 3-point shots and sinking 18 of 19 free throws. Both coaches are stressing defense for this game. I believe them. Boston is down Kyrie Irving. The Celtics aren't likely to have Jaylen Brown either. He's doubtful with a hamstring injury that caused him to miss Game 1. No other Celtic averaged more than 14 points a game than those two. I see the 76ers making a stronger commitment defensively and the law of averages catching up fast to Boston in this game. The Celtics aren't going to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor like they did in Game 1 without Irving and Brown, who if he does play will be severely impacted. The Celtics, though, have the savvy and the super coaching of Brad Stevens to keep the 76ers' youthful talent frustrated and bottled-up.
05-03-18	Yankees v. Astros -120	Top	6-5	Loss	-120	10 h 8 m	Show
The Astros haven't lost three straight home games all season and I don't see it happening here. Not with a pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka versus Lance McCullers. Tanaka has a 9.00 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Astros at Minute Maid Park and a 10.38 ERA mark versus Houston in four career starts. McCullers has a very strong history at Minute Maid Park where his lifetime ERA is 2.33 compared to 4.97 on the road. McCullers is in strong form with a 3-0 mark and 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He's faced the Yankees three times in his career and is 2-0 against them with a 2.08 ERA.
05-02-18	Yankees v. Astros +115		4-0	Loss	-100	11 h 51 m	Show
The chance to get Dallas Keuchel as an underdog is too much to pass up. Keuchel was back on track in two starts before his last outing. I see him bouncing back against the Yankees, a foe he has dominated. Keuchel is 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six career regular season starts versus New York and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in three career playoff starts against the Yankees. Houston has won 71 percent of Keuchel's last 52 home starts. The Yankees are 1-7 in their past eight games at Minute Maid Stadium. Yankees starter Luis Severino emerged as a star last season. My handicap is based far more on Keuchel and the Astros than a fade on Severino. However, Sevrino is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA in three career appearances against the Astros.
05-02-18	Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Two hot pitchers go here. But that's not the only reason I like Under the total. Neither offense has been scoring many runs and this is a day game where weather factors. Tigers starter Michael Fulmer has a strong history when pitching during the day with a career ratio of less 1.00. Commerica Park is a pitcher's park and the wind is blowing in at 15-19 mph. The Rays have scored only seven runs in their last three games. The Tigers haven't scored more than three runs during six of their last seven games. Tamp Bay starter Blake Snell is below the radar right now. He hasn't given up more than two runs during any of his past four starts. He has a 34-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during these four games spanning 26 2/3 innings. Snell would catch a break if Miguel Cabrera has to sit out for a third straight game due to a left biceps injury. Fullmer is looking for his third straight strong start. He's allowed two earned runs during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He has a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last two starts. Fullmer has a 2.36 career ERA versus the Rays in four starts.
05-01-18	White Sox v. Cardinals -1.5		2-3	Loss	-115	13 h 42 m	Show
The White Sox are dreadful with an 8-18 record and minus 42-run differential. I don't understand why James Shields is part of the White Sox's starting rotation. Shields is an over-the-hill innings-eater who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He had a 5.23 ERA last year and is even worse this year with a 6.14 ERA. Chicago has lost in 14 of Shields' past 19 road starts. Chicago is 1-4 in Shields' five starts this season giving up 35 runs in those four defeats. The Cardinals have won six of their last eight home games. The White Sox have dropped 11 of their last 13 interleague road matchups. MIchael Wacha is two levels higher than Shields. So I have no problem laying 1 1/2 runs in order to reduce the high juice associated with fading Shields.
05-01-18	Predators v. Jets OVER 5.5	Top	4-7	Win	100	15 h 11 m	Show
The Jets just know one speed - and it's not slow. Winnipeg isn't going to change its style after splitting two road games against the Predators to open this series. Winnipeg has scored four goals in each of its first two games versus Nashville. Now the Jets are home where they have scored three or more goals in 15 of their past 17 games at Bell MTS Centre. The Predators knew they had to pick up the pace and play more aggressive following a 4-1 Game 1 home loss this past Friday. So they did just and were rewarded with a 5-4 double overtime victory in Game 2 this past Sunday. That was the 11th time in their last 14 games the Predators have scored at least three goals. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games. The Over has won in five of the seven meetings between Nashville and Winnipeg this season. Even the games that didn't get above the total featured a lot of shots on goal and scoring opportunities. The Predators are averaging 4.0 goals per game against the Jets this season while Winnipeg is averaging 3.8 goals per game versus Nashville.
05-01-18	Brewers -113 v. Reds		7-6	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
I'll back Chase Anderson, the Brewers' best starting pitcher, at this short road price. The 30-year-old Anderson is a late-bloomer, who turned the corner last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. He's continued in good form this season with a 2.86 ERA. He has a 2.68 lifetime ERA against the Reds in seven games. Anderson has a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season holding foes to a .127 batting average. Milwaukee is 8-3 in Anderson's past 11 starts. So it's reasonable to expect a solid game from Anderson. I also like the Brewers' bullpen better than the Reds even without closer Corey Knebel. Cincinnati has the worst record in the majors at 7-22. The Reds are a better team than that, but not that much better. They just got back Eugenio Suarez, but aren't likely to have Scotter Gennett in the starting lineup due to a sore throwing shoulder. He's the Reds' leading hitter with players who have more than 83 at bats. If you discount their recent series against the Cubs, the Brewers would be 9-0 in their last nine games. I'm not a fan of Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey. He seems to throw one excellent game and four bad ones for every five outings. The Reds are 7-19 in his last 26 starts. Cincinnati also has dropped 16 of its past 21 home contests. Bailey hasn't had a winning record during the past four seasons. His ERA during the past two years is 6.65 and 6.43. He's winless this season with a 4.19 ERA. He has a 4.65 career ERA versus Milwaukee in 26 games.
04-30-18	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -131	Top	5-8	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm sure the Dodgers will get straighten out. Right now, though, they are mess. Their 12-15 record is deserving. They have injuries and many of their better players are off to slow starts. Arizona, by contrast, has the best record in the National League at 19-8. The Diamondbacks have yet to lose a series this season. There's no reason for things not to continue the way they have in today's game. The Diamondbacks are going with their ace, Zach Greinke. Arizona is 22-8 in Greinke's last 30 home starts, including 14-1 the past two seasons. The Dodgers are going to go with Ross Stripling, who has pitched well this season but in middle relief. He's not expected to pitch too many innings so this is looking like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Their bullpen has been below average this season. Arizona has dominated the Dodgers winning 11 of the past 12 regular season meetings, including going 5-1 this season with a three-gamd home sweep at the beginning of the month. The Dodgers are down Justin Turner and now Yasiel Puig, who was put on the DL Sunday. LA is 1-5 in its last six games and facing fatigue issues having played four games during the last three days, including a Saturday doubleheader. This is a cheap price to lay to get Greinke especially given the circumstances.
04-29-18	Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9		2-1	Win	100	8 h 40 m	Show
Both starting pitchers - CC Sabathia and Tyler Skaggs - have looked good this season. But there are a couple of hidden keys that also make the Under a worthy investment. This is a rare 5 p.m. West Coast start time for the Angels, done to accommodate the game being nationally televised by ESPN. Those who have attended games in Anaheim during this rare time at Angel Stadium know how tough it is for batters to see the ball because of twillight shadows. Sabathia has a 1.86 ERA this season. Sabathia may catch a break if Shohei Ohtani has to sit out because of an ankle injury that has pushed back his next pitching start. The Under has won an amazing 75 percent of the time during Sabathia's past 22 road starts. Skaggs has a 2.96 ERA and showing signs of turning the corner on his one-time promising career. The Yankees have never faced Skaggs giving him an element of surprise advantage. Note, too, that Angel Hernandez is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's a been huge Under ump during the past three years, known for his generous strike zone. The Under is 16-5 in Hernandez's last 21 home plate appearances.
04-29-18	Rockies -109 v. Marlins		0-3	Loss	-109	2 h 47 m	Show
Better team. Better pitcher. Decent line value. So, yes, I'm on the Rockies here. The knock on the Rockies is they aren't a good road team. But they are 8-3 during their past 11 away contests. And they're playing the Marlins, perhaps the worst team in the majors. The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 10 home games. Chad Bettis has been the Rockies' most consistent starter this season. He's pitched well away from Coors Field going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. He's in good form, too, with a 2.40 ERA in his last three starts. Bettis may avoid the Marlins' best power hitter, Justin Bour, who missed yesterday's game because of back spasms. Miami starter Caleb Smith has yet to win in the majors. The rookie is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA. The Rockies have the stronger lineup and it could be bolstered even more if DJ LeMathieu and Carlos Gonzalez are able to play.
04-29-18	Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs	Top	101-105	Win	100	9 h 20 m	Show
Maybe it's preordained that the Cavaliers and LeBron James win this Game 7 being at home. But I certainly have to take these points to find that out. It has been obvious all season, even with turning the roster over at the trade deadline, that aside from James the Cavaliers have problems. They just aren't that good especially when laying points. Only twice in their last 13 games have the Cavaliers defeated a foe by six or more points. The Pacers have outscored the Cavaliers by 50 points in this series. The Pacers went 3-1 during the regular season against the Cavaliers. Cleveland's three victories in this series have been by an average of 3.3 points. The Cavaliers haven't defeated the Pacers by more than four points during the series. Maybe the pressure gets to the Pacers. But I don't see it. The Cavaliers are a one-man team. James is getting no help. Kevin Love, bothered by a thumb injury, is shooting 32.4 percent in the series He's more a liability than a help. James and Love are the only Cleveland players even averaging double figures in the series for Cleveland. Indiana has been underrated all season. Victor Oladipo has become a legitimate star. Myles Turner gives Indiana the best big man. The Pacers hold a bench edge. Domantas Sabonis has been stepping up big. He's on fire making 26 of 35 field goals during the last three games. Lance Stephenson is an annual hindrance to James. Again, this isn't some dominant Cavaliers team. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games. They aren't a strong home team either covering just 30 percent of their last 54 home games. The Pacers have proven themselves against this caliber of opponent going 9-1 ATS the past 10 times on the road when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600. Indiana also has covered in seven of their last eight visits to Quicken Loans Arena.
04-28-18	A's v. Astros -1.5	Top	0-11	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Coming off an embarrassing 8-1 home loss to the A's and sizzling Sean Manaea on Friday, the Astros should get back on track in a big way facing Daniel Mengden. The Astros' last seven victories all have been by at least three runs. Mengden was drafted by the Astros four years ago and then traded to Oakland. He's yet to find success with the A's. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in four career starts versus Houston. The A's bullpen is down injured setup man Ryan Buchter. Houston has won 40 of its last 57 (70%) homes when going against a right-handed starter. The Astros have the superior starter, Lance McCullers, and bullpen going here. McCullers pitches much better at Minute Maid Park. This is just his second home start of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings to the Padres in his first home start this year. McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 home ERA last year compared to 3-4 with a 5.14 road ERA. Two years ago, McCullers was 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA pitching at Minute Maid Park while going 1-2 on the road with a 5.57 ERA. So the pattern clearly is established that McCullers is a much better home park pitcher.
04-28-18	Bruins v. Lightning UNDER 6.5		6-2	Loss	-146	4 h 15 m	Show
Under normal circumstances, I might look Over the total. But not here in this Game 1. Tampa Bay has been idle for a week since eliminating New Jersey. There was either a 6 or 6 1/2 total for each of those series games, but the Lightning beat the Devils by identical, 3-1, scores in the final two games of their first-round series to advance to this level. Boston could be in letdown mode after getting past the pesky Maple Leafs in seven games during its first-round series. These teams are well acquainted with each other. They met twice during the final 12 games of the regular season. The Over hasn't won during the last five get togethers between Boston and Tampa Bay. I liked what I saw of Andrei Vasilevskiy against the Devils. He finished that series with a .941 save percentage. The Lightning's penalty kill unit also looked good killing off 16 of 19 New Jersey power play attempts. I see the Bruins coming out in defensive mode and the Lightning starting slow as they get the rust off. Note an early day time start, which is a plus for the Under.
04-27-18	White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9		7-4	Loss	-100	9 h 39 m	Show
Reynaldo Lopez is pitching way below-the-radar screen and Danny Duffy is overdue to throw a good game. Now that he's making his first night appearance of the season, this could happen for Duffy. Duffy entered the season as the Royals' No. 1 starter. He has not pitched well so far this season. However, Duffy has a history of pitching better at night and he's home. The Under has cashed in nine of Duffy's last 12 home starts. Duffy was 1-5 with a 4.60 ERA in day games last season, compared to 8-5 with a 3.46 ERA during night games. The Royals could catch a break if Jose Abreu, the White Sox best and most feared hitter, has to miss a second consecutive game due to flu symptons. Lopez's record is 0-2. He has a 1.50 ERA, though, and hasn't given up more than four hits, or two runs, during any of his four starts this year. Both offenses are below average. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They've scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Royals' offense is even worse. Kansas City ranks 29th in runs scored, 27th in home runs and is in the bottom-five in batting average with runners in scoring position. The Royals also have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.
04-27-18	Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5		4-1	Loss	-110	16 h 24 m	Show
Some of it stems from rule changes and tweaks made before the season to increase scoring. The result has been more emphasis on offense and that has carried into these Stanley Cup playoffs as seven of the eight advancing teams averaged at least 3.2 goals per game during the first round. Las Vegas was the only opening-round winner that averaged fewer than 3.2 goals per game during their defensive-minded first-round series against the Kings. But the Golden Knights just put up seven goals Thursday night in their first game against the Sharks to start the second round of the playoffs. So I'm surprised this opening Jets-Predators series total wasn't lined at 6. Maybe it will be a 3-2 game. Both goalies, Connor Hellebuyck and Pekka Rinne, are playing well. I just think there's a much greater chance that more than five goals will be scored given the aggressive makeup of these two teams and their strong offenses. Winnipeg scored the second-most goals in the NHL. The Jets have scored three or more goals in 12 of their last 17 games. The Predators ranked seventh in scoring. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 12 games. Neither team is going to change their style. It's going to be speed not dumping the puck. The scores of the five regular-season games between the Jets and Predators were 5-4 in a shootout, 3-1, 6-5, 6-4 and 5-3. That's an average of seven goals per game.
04-27-18	Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards	Top	102-92	Win	100	12 h 50 m	Show
I'm always attracted to taking the better team when they are getting points. That's the case with this opening number. It's close to a double-digit difference from the last game two days ago when the Raptors were seven-point home favorites. True, the Raptors have yet to win in Washington having gone 0-2 against the Wizards on the road during this series. But I don't see them losing three consecutive away playoff matchups to the Wizards. I like the adjustments Raptors coach Dwane Casey made in Game 5 when the Raptors whipped the Wizards by 10 points. Slow down the Wizards in transition and you'll likely win. The Raptors can do this. The Wizards need big scoring games from Bradley Beal and Otto Porter Jr. to complement John Wall. Porter, however, may not play because of a leg injury. His shooting has been off because of the injury. I trust Casey, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowery and Serge Ibaka more than Scott Brooks, Wall and Co.
04-26-18	Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 5	Top	0-7	Win	100	19 h 44 m	Show
San Jose last was in action eight days ago. Las Vegas hasn't played in nine days. So how does this factor for the total? I believe it's a plus for the Over on two key counts. Both teams obviously will be totally refreshed and will be able to skate at their fastest. Neither team has any weak lines. Each of four lines the Sharks and Golden Knights have are capable of attacking. Goalies Martin Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury enter this second-round series red-hot. The long layoff, though, can present a rust factor for them. The Golden Knights haven't had to deal with a defenseman with the offensive skills of Brent Burns. If Las Vegas pays extra attention to Burns, the Sharks other veterans can take advantage. Las Vegas was the fifth-highest scoring team in the league. San Jose is averaging 3.8 goals in its last six games. There were at least five goals scored in three of the four regular-season games between these two teams. If it weren't for an empy net goal in Las Vegas' 5-3 win against the Sharks on March 22, each of the matchups this season would have been decided by one goal. The expected closeness of this matchup not only sets up a strong possibility of overtime, but also an empty net goal.
04-26-18	Celtics v. Bucks -4.5		86-97	Win	100	11 h 15 m	Show
Take away Kyrie Irving and the Bucks have more talent than Boston. So this series has been about the Bucks' superior talent level versus the huge coaching mismatch between Brad Stevens and interim coach Joe Prunty. There has been a classic zig-zag feel to the series, too, with each team winning at home through the first five games. Now it's Milwaukee's turn to hold serve. The Bucks defeated the Celtics by 24 points in Game 3 at home and led by 20 points at home in Game 4 before only winning by two. So the Bucks definitely are capable of covering this number versus this opponent. Minus Irving, the Celtics take a backseat to the Bucks' starters - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon. Now, though, the Bucks are getting key bench contributions from Jabari Parker and Thon Maker. Boston beat the Bucks, 92-87, this past Tuesday at home in Game 5. The Bucks shot only 36.8 percent from the floor and had 12 fewer free throw attempts than the Celtics. Yet they still hung in. The Bucks should shoot much better - they ranked No. 3 in the league in field goal percentage during the regular season at 47.8 percent - and get to the free throw more being at home and being strong in the paint. This is the Bucks' game to win - and I see them doing that.
04-26-18	Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5		8-2	Win	100	4 h 47 m	Show
After scoring five runs in six innings off Zach Greinke on Wednesday, the Phillies drop down to face Matt Koch. He's a replacement for injured Taijuan Walker. Koch pitched well in his first start this season. But that was against the Padres. He does not have a high ceiling. The Diamondbacks are starting to get production from their Big Two of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The Diamondbacks draw Ben Lively, a second-year starter who also has a low ceiling. The Diamondbacks are familar with Lively. He was 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two appearances against Arizona last season. The Over has won in Arizona's last seven road contests. Citizens Bank Park is one of the better hitter's parks in the majors and hitters will get addition help from a wind blowing out at 12-14 mph out to right field.
04-25-18	Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 5.5	Top	4-7	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
These have been two big Over the total teams and that's been reflected in the series with four of the six games going Over. Toronto has scored at least three goals in four of its last five games in the series. The Over has cashed in 71 percent of the Maple Leafs' past 26 games. Only once in their last 10 away games have the Maple Leafs gone Under the total. Boston has scored three or more goals in 10 of its last 11 home games. The Over is 10-2-4 in the Bruins' past 16 home contests. Now we have the deciding Game 7 in this series. The bonus we have going is neither team has anything to lose if they are behind late in the game. That means an inviting empy net for maybe the final three minutes if one team should be up, 3-2. The Bruins have dropped the past two games. But it hasn't been for lack of shots. The Bruins are averaging 37 1/2 shots on goal during the last two games. Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen hasn't been that good on the road. He's allowed 11 goals during the three series games played in Boston. Boston's front line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak was outstanding during their first two home games of this series. They are well overdue to break out again. Boston goalie Tukka Rask has given up seven goals during his last two home games against Toronto.
04-25-18	Wizards v. Raptors -7		98-108	Win	100	16 h 50 m	Show
John Wall is healthy and dangerous. But I see the Raptors controlling Wall and solidly beating the Wizards. Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. That includes the Wizards failing to cover in their first two games at Toronto during this series, losing by eight and 11 points. The Raptors are 36-7 at Air Canada Centre. The Wizards hold a losing road mark. The Raptors could have swept this series already if they didn't blow two leads at Washington in Games 3 and 4. Toronto believes it is the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors very well could be. They have to prove it, though, by solidly winning this game. I see the Raptors putting forth a tremendous effort, playing much better than they did in Washington. Wall helped even the series by burning the Raptors repeatedly in transition. Look for the Raptors to cut back on their turnovers and to slow down Wall with their secret weapon, Pascal Siakam. He's a defensive ace whose minutes should go up. The Wizards are decent but nothing special. They are not in the Raptors' class. Toronto hurt itself with turnovers. I expect the Raptors to play smarter and better at home. If that happens, the Raptors should win by double-digits.
04-25-18	Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs		95-98	Win	100	16 h 49 m	Show
Simply put, it's too many points for Cleveland to lay. The series is tied 2-2. Cleveland's wins have been by three and four points. Only twice in their last 11 games have the Cavaliers beaten any team by more than six points. Indiana has been underrated all season. The Pacers are a tough out. They're getting contributions from their entire rotation. The same can't be said for the Cavaliers. Only LeBron James can be counted on. George Hill is questionable after missing Game 4 with back spasms. I don't think there's ever been a game in which George Hill wasn't questionable. Kevin Love is dealing with a thumb injury that has affected his shooting. He's missed 30 of 47 shots in the series and committed 11 turnovers. The Pacers are mad they let Game 4 slip away especially being home. But they are 6-0 ATS following a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last road games when taking on an opponent with an above .500 home mark. Indiana also has covered in six of its last seven visits to Cleveland. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times when playing on two day's rest. Some of that I attribute to Tyronn Lue, who I regard as the worst coach in the playoffs.
04-25-18	Rays +105 v. Orioles		8-4	Win	105	6 h 38 m	Show
Tampa Bay has won four in a row. The Rays have scored 26 runs in their last three games. The Orioles are 6-17 on the season and have lost nine of their last 10. So, unless Dylan Bundy is on the mound, I'm fading the Orioles when they are chalk like they are here. The pitching matchup is Jake Faria versus Alex Cobb. Faria has a lot of upside. He's pitched well in three of his four starts this season giving up just one earned run in three of those outings. The Orioles are buried by injuries right now. Mark Trumbo and Colby Rasmus are out. Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham aren't likely to play. Trey Mancini could be out, too. These injuries have forced the Orioles to start Anthony Santander in the outfield and he's not ready for the big leagues yet. Cobb has a 15.43 ERA on the season giving up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in seven innings. Cobb signed late and I doubt he's in shape yet. The Rays know Cobb well since he pitched for them from 2011 through last season.
04-24-18	Spurs v. Warriors -11		91-99	Loss	-105	19 h 53 m	Show
Down 3-0 in the series, San Antonio saved faced with a 103-90 home win against Golden State this past Sunday. Now the Warriors return home knowing they need to end this series now with the Pelicans already waiting in the wings having swept the Trail Blazers in their first-round playoff series. The Spurs don't have it this year. Kawhi Leonard was a no-show. There's too much age and the great Gregg Popovich is in mourning following the death of his wife last week. Assistant Ettore Messina will coach the Spurs in this game with Popovich away. A combination of the Spurs being exceedingly hot from long range - 15 of 28 3-pointers - and the Warriors playing flat resulted in the Spurs' first win of the series. It's going to be their only win, too, as I see the Warriors definitely closing out things here. The major question, of course, is will they win by enough points to cover this double-digit spread? Steve Kerr and the Warriors have too much respect for the Spurs. They won't fool around. They certainly have the talent to bury the Spurs. They had leads of 19 or more points during the first three games of this series in winning by 21, 15 and 13 points, respectively. San Antonio has failed to cover in its last nine away games.
04-24-18	A's -109 v. Rangers		3-2	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Quietly Oakland has gone above .500 on the season. The A's have won seven of their last eight games. Their underrated offense ranks in the top-six in runs, homers and batting average. They also have some underrated pitchers such as Andrew Triggs, who is slated to pitch today. Texas is going to be very bad again this season. The Rangers are 3-11 at home, have one of the worst bullpens in the majors and are down their two starting middle infielders, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. Triggs has pitched well in three of his four starts this season. He's facing Cole Hamels, who carries a big reputation but really isn't that good anymore. Hamels had a 4.20 ERA last season. It's 4.76 this year. Triggs has a 1.02 lifetime ERA versus the Rangers in four appearances, including three starts. The A's beat the Rangers, 3-1, at home behind Triggs three weeks ago.
04-24-18	Bucks v. Celtics -150	Top	87-92	Win	100	16 h 40 m	Show
Having home-court and a monster coaching edge trump Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those are two reasons why I like Boston here. But they are not the only reasons. I don't trust the Bucks' bench, nor do I believe the Bucks can keep up their hot shooting especially from 3-point range. The Celtics finished the regular season giving up the third-fewest points per game. They ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense holding foes to 33.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Bucks, though, are hitting 43.6 percent of their 3-point shots, which is the best of any team in the playoffs. The Bucks ranked 22nd in the league in 3-point shooting during the regular season at 35.5 percent. Boston's defense could get an added boost if Marcus Smart is able to play. He's been out with a thumb injury. The Celtics have won 29 of 43 games at home this season. The Bucks are five games under .500 on the road. The Bucks nearly choked away a 20-point lead at home this past Sunday before winning by two. Milwaukee is 5-11 ATS following a victory.
04-23-18	Mariners -142 v. White Sox		4-10	Loss	-142	12 h 31 m	Show
The White Sox are 1-8 at home. They've been lit up for 57 runs during their last six games with a horrific bullpen. The White Sox offense has produced two or fewer runs in seven of their past eight games. It's not a shock then that the White Sox are riding a seven-game losing streak. So Mike Leake's task shouldn't be that difficult. Leake is more innings-eater than star, but he's reliable and has pitched well since joining the Mariners last season. The White Sox have never faced him. The Mariners are 9-2 when scoring at least four runs. That shouldn't prove difficult against Carson Fulmer, who is replacing scheduled starter Miguel Gonzalez.
04-23-18	Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves	Top	119-100	Win	100	13 h 53 m	Show
The Timberwolves aren't nearly in the same class as the Rockets. They were destroyed in the first two games of this series, but then won Game 3 at home. That was Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004. The crowd and team were super fired-up. I don't see that continuing. The Rockets had their one bad game of the series. I doubut Houston is flat for a second consecutive game. I also don't see the Timberwolves being able to match last game's fever intensity. That was a special game and the Timberwolves shot out of their minds connecting on 15 of 27 three-point shots. Minnesota normally doesn't launch that many 3-pointers, or play quality defense like it did in Game 3. Ryan Anderson is back for Houston giving the Rockets another sharpshooter to go with James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza. The Timberwolves haven't matched up well to the Rockets. Minnesota has lost to the Rockets in 20 of the past 23 meetings even with its Game 3 win.
04-23-18	Capitals v. Blue Jackets +100		6-3	Loss	-100	15 h 45 m	Show
I don't believe the Capitals can defeat the Blue Jackets three times on the road in this series. Washington leads this best-of-seven series three games to twon following a 4-3 overtime victory this past Saturday at home. But the Capitals were lucky to have won that game getting outshot, 16-1, in the third period. I thought the Blue Jackets outplayed the Capitals in that Game 5 road loss. Now they are back home where their effort should get fully rewarded. The Blue Jackets led the NHL in scoring during the final 28 regular season games. Braden Holtby has stepped up well after not starting the first two games, but I'll still take Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky especially at home.
04-22-18	Cavs +1 v. Pacers	Top	104-100	Win	100	26 h 42 m	Show
Never has a LeBron James-led NBA team been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. But if the Cavaliers don't win this game, that's likely to happen as Indiana leads this best-of-seven series, 2-1. The Pacers stole a game the Cavaliers should have won coming from 17 points down to nip Cleveland, 92-90, this past Friday at home. This is the time to back the Cavaliers, though, when most everybody is down on them and they are near to be counted out. Cleveland has been playing strong defense. Open shots were there for the Cavaliers in the third quarter that would have stifled the Pacers' comeback. Cleveland just couldn't hit them. I believe in James. I believe the Cavaliers have made huge strides defensively. I believe they have put themselves into serious contention to win the Eastern Conference playoffs by getting more athletic at the trade deadline acquiring Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, George Hill and Jordan Clarkson. The Cavaliers are used to this type of pressure. This is something new for the Pacers. James is the greatest player of his era and he's having one of his greatest seasons. I don't see it ending with a first-round loss to the Pacers, who are good but far from elite. Cleveland is going all out here. The Cavaliers have everything to prove after their Game 3 slip-up. It's unlikely James remains in Cleveland if the Cavaliers lose this first-round playoff series.
04-21-18	Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 5.5		4-3	Win	100	3 h 41 m	Show
The Bruins have scored 17 goals in building up a 3-1 series lead on the Maple Leafs. I don't see the Maple Leafs slowing down the Bruins in Boston. The Bruins are averaging 4.8 goals during their last 10 home games. Facing elimination, the Maple Leafs won't hesistate to pull their goalie if trailing by one or two goals late in the game. They did this in Game 4 with more than three minutes left. Toronto is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 19 games. They should play fast and loose. The Over is 14-3-1 the past 18 times the Maple Leafs have played an opponent with a winning mark.
04-21-18	Mariners -157 v. Rangers		9-7	Win	100	12 h 9 m	Show
Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double. Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance. The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunimo
04-21-18	Rockets v. Wolves OVER 214	Top	105-121	Win	100	13 h 36 m	Show
The first two games of this series - both at Houston - have gone Under the total. There is a lot of zigging and zagging in the NBA playoffs not just with point spreads, but also with totals. This is the time for an Over to occur in this series. There is a law of averages and due factor that should kick in. The Rockets, for instance, scored 102 points in Game 2 with James Harden limited to only 12 points. Houston has made barely 29 percent of its 3-point shots in the series when it averaged 36.2 percent from 3-point range during the regular season. This is enormous because the Rockets fire up more shots from beyond the arc than any team. The Timberwolves are shooting 38.8 percent from the floor in the series. They had the fourth-highest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season at 47.6 percent. Karl-Anthony Towns is having a horrible series shooting 5-of-18 from the field after finishing the regular season converting 54.5 percent of his field goals. But it's not just the due factor and a natural correction being in order. The Timberwolves have played way too conservative. Now that they're home - making their first home playoff appearance since 2004 - they are going to play more up-tempo and fast. That's their best chance to beat the Rockets. Minnesota wins with offense not defense. Jimmy Butler is an outstanding two-way player. However, Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford are far more offensive-minded players. They are scorers first, not defenders. Huge crowd support should push the Timberwolves into a frantic pace. Minnesota catches a break, too, as the Rockets are without their best defensive player, injured Luc Mbah Moute. I'm looking for the Rockets to score more points, too. They were the No. 2 scoring team in the league and averaged 122.7 points in their four regular-season meetings with the Timberwolves, who ranked 29th in defensive field goal percentage.
04-20-18	Avalanche v. Predators -1.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-115	18 h 29 m	Show
Nice season for the Avalanche. They did well. But things end here for them. Colorado has played heavily favored Nashville tough in this opening-round Stanley Cup series, but a 3-2 home loss two days ago puts the Avalanche in a 3-1 hole that they aren't going to emerge from. I don't see Colorado having much left to fend off the Predators especially now going on the road. The Predators have been near unbeatable at home during the Stanley Cup going 15-2 in their last 17 playoff games at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators have outscored the Avalance, 10-6, in their two home playoff games during this series. And now the Avalanche are down to third-string goalie Andrew Hammond with both Semyon Varlamov and Jonathan Bernier out with injuries. Nashville has scored three or more goals in nine of its last 10 games, including all four games in this series. The Predators are playing well on special teams, too, and Pekka Rinne is at his best at home with a 2.10 GAA home playoff average for his career. The Predators have dominated the Avalanche winning 13 of the past 14 meetings.
04-20-18	Celtics v. Bucks OVER 205		92-116	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The linesmaker has overcompensated for the Celtics missing Kyrie Irving. Boston has gone Over the past six games. The Celtics have produced triple digits in each of their last six games and are averaging 109.5 points in regulation during the first two games of the series. The Bucks are having problems defending Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum. The Bucks aren't a good defensive team allowing triple digits in 19 of their last 20 games. They've allowed 113 or more points in six of their past nine games. Milwaukee has the offense, though, to put up a lot of points especially since Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker have been quiet. They're due and the Bucks are home, where they have scored triple digits in seven straight games. The Celtics are down one of their best defensive players with Marcus Smart out. The Over has cashed in 11 of the Bucks' past 12 Eastern Conference games.
04-20-18	Indians -110 v. Orioles	Top	1-3	Loss	-110	17 h 4 m	Show
I respect Dylan Bundy, but the Orioles are terrible and the price is low enough to back the much superior Indians. Baltimore is 5-14, losers of six in a row. Cleveland is one of the best teams in baseball, better than the Orioles in every facet. The Indians have started to get into gear winning six of their last eight. Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland. Bauer looked sharp in his last outing giving up two runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Tigers this past Thursday in a 9-3 win. Bauer said he had his best stuff working for him in that game. Bundy has been the Orioles' lone decent starter this season. He's been helped pitching in cold weather. Still, the Orioles don't win for him. Baltimore is 1-6 in his last seven starts. The temperatures will be in the high 50's for this game, almost balmy compared to how cold it has been. Budy has a 5.06 career ERA versus the Indians in two starts. Cleveland has won 27 of its last 37 road games. The Indians have defeated the Orioles five times in a row.
04-19-18	Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans	Top	102-119	Loss	-105	17 h 13 m	Show
Just six days ago, Portland was considered to be superior to New Orleans. Now, two games later, the Pelicans are up 2-0 in their Western Conference playoff series and Portland is a road 'dog in do-or-die mode. Is it time to close the book on the Trail Blazers? Perhaps. But I do believe Damian Lillard is due for a turnabout and the Trail Blazers will let everything hang here. The Pelicans are going to take the Trail Blazers' best punch. Lillard has made just 13 of 41 shots from the floor for 31.7 percent in the series. He's much better than that. C.J. McCollum is due to play better, too. Portland should fare better as the hunter rather than the hunted. The Trail Blazers have covered six of the last eight times they've been underdogs. They have covered 56 percent of their road games this season. New Orleans has a decent, but not great home court advantage. The Pelicans have a losing ATS mark at Smoothie King Center. I find Portland's Terry Stotts to be an underrated coach. He's going to make adjustments and tweaks in this Game 3, including probably putting Moe Harkless into the starting lineup. Harkless could be Portland's secret weapon. He had been out the past 10 games due to injury before returning in Game 2. Harkless had a Portland-best plus 10 during his court time in Game 2. The Trail Blazers entered the playoffs 13-3 ATS the last 16 times Harkless has played.
04-19-18	Bruins v. Maple Leafs +104		3-1	Loss	-100	15 h 32 m	Show
The Maple Leafs aren't getting enough respect here opening as a home 'dog to the Bruins. Toronto has beaten Boston five consecutive times at home. The Bruins also have lost their last five road games while the Maple Leafs have won 67 percent of their past 52 games at Air Canada Centre. The Maple Leafs lost the first two games of this Stanley Cup series at Boston. But I was encouraged by how the Maple Leafs played in Game 2. They then defeated the Bruins, 4-2, at home this past Monday. Now they can even the series. Three of the major takeaways from Toronto's Game 3 victory was the improved goaltending by Fredrik Andersen, who stopped 40 shots, the Maple Leafs' clamping down on Boston's No. 1 line and Auston Matthews taking the pressure off his back by scoring the tiebreaking goal. Matthews is an emerging superstar and he shouldn't play tight anymore. Tuukka Rask has been a more effective goalie at home. He's allowed 11 goals during his last three road games. Rask has also given up a combined eight goals in two road games this season against Toronto.
04-19-18	76ers v. Heat UNDER 217	Top	128-108	Loss	-108	17 h 5 m	Show
It's easy to think offense when discussing the 76ers and all their young talent headed by Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. But Philadelphia actually is very strong defensively. The 76ers ranked second this season in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Heat, of course, have forged their blue-collar repuation by playing tough defense. Only three teams gave up fewer points per game than Miami this season. Yet Under bettors were torched when the 76ers won, 130-103, in Game 1 and some Under bettors lost in Game 2 depending on the number they took. So what gives and why is Under the best way to look in this Game 3? Based on the quality of these two defenses, with both placing among the top-seven in points per possession, the total is jacked up too high. Some of this has to do with 233 points being produced in the series opener. That game, though, was an outlier. The Heat and 76ers combined to make 30 of 54 shots from 3-point range. That's 55.5 percent. The 76ers shot 36.9 percent from beyond the arc entering the series, while the Heat were below average from 3-point range during the regular season hitting 36 percent. The Heat bounced back to win 113-103, in Game 2. That's a combined 216 points with the total being in the 215-217 range depending on the sports book and when the wager was made. The score was 109-100 with 10 seconds left. This isn't college basketball. That's what the final score should have been for 209 combined points. Instead a lot of B.S. and unnecessary end-game stuff happened. Seven points were scored during these meaningless last 10 seconds, including Goran Dragic putting in a layup with one second remaining. The dynamics could be altered for this Game 3 if Embiid returns to the lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with an orbital fracture. Embiid is a plus both offensively and defensively with his rebounding and shot-blocking skills, where he ranked sixth in blocks per game. The Heat have an elite rim-protector, too, in Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside was limited to only 15:10 of playing time in Game 2 because of foul trouble. He should log more minutes in this game, which would be a plus for the Under. If Embiid plays - and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said he has prepared his team for this to happen - I would regard it as more of a plus than a minus for the Under. Embiid will be tough inside defensively, but his shot figures to be rusty since he's been idle since March 28.
04-19-18	Blue Jays +143 v. Yankees		3-4	Loss	-100	11 h 60 m	Show
Perception-wise this line makes some sense. The Yankees are the Yankees, the most public of teams, and they are home. But right now this line doesn't reflect reality. The Yankees are struggling. They are 8-8, batting only .248 and averaging more than one error per game. The Blue Jays are 12-5. They've won four in a row and have the better starting pitcher going in matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus CC Sabathia. Just two years ago, Sanchez was being regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball going 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He missed most of last season with blister issues. Sanchez is healthy this year and he's put together back-to-back quality starts. He has a 3.03 career ERA against the Yankees. Sabathia is in the twillight of his career and frequently gets hurt. He's coming off the DL to make this start. He last pitched on April 6 before straining his right hip. Sabathia has a 7.37 ERA during his past 12 starts against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 9-3 in Sabathia's past 12 starts against them.
04-18-18	Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5		1-2	Loss	-130	19 h 22 m	Show
I'm surprised the total opened 5 here considering how hot the Sharks are. San Jose has scored at least three goals in each of its last five games. The Sharks are averaging 4.6 goals per game during the first three games of thes series in building a 3-0 series lead. The Ducks have had problems with each of the Sharks' four lines and goalie John Gibson is not playing well with a 4.17 GAA and .882 save percentage in the series. Anaheim is due to breakout offensively, though. The Ducks' talent is much better than the three goals they've managed in the series and the Sharks are a good but not great defensive team. Facing playoff elimination with a loss here, the Ducks have nothing to lose. So if they're down late they are vulnerable to not one but two open net goals.
04-18-18	Predators v. Avalanche UNDER 6		3-2	Win	100	19 h 53 m	Show
The first three games of this series all have gone Over with seven, nine and eight goals being scored. But I'm going to go against the grain and go Under in this Game 4. My handicapping key is Nashville. The Predators lacked intensity in giving up four goals during the first 25 minutes of Monday's 5-3 road loss to the Avalanche. Nashville surrendered the second-fewest goals during the regular season. The Predators are 9-1-1 to the Under after giving up five or more goals in a game. They've allowed three or fewer goals in seven of their past 10 road games. Pekka Rinne is an elite goalie who is out to redeem himself after a bad game Monday. The series has gotten very physical. The Predators aren't going to let Nathan MacKinnon go off on them like he did Monday. So I envision a tight-checking matchup with the Avalanche playing conservative, too, trying to even the series.
04-18-18	Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 206.5	Top	102-95	Win	100	14 h 19 m	Show
Utah was the best defensive team in the NBA during the second half of the season. The Jazz, though, are limited offensively. They rely heavily on rookie Donovan Mitchell for scoring. Mitchell, however, is hindered by a foot injury and will be defended by Paul George, one of the top defensive wing players in the NBA. I don't trust Utah's other offensive options if Mitchell isn't producing a lot of points. These teams combined for 224 points in Oklahoma City's 116-108 Game 1 victory this past Sunday. I don't expect both teams to combine to hit 25 of 47 3-point shots like they did in the series opener. The Jazz and Thunder met three times during the regular season and the combined final scores averaged 190 points. Utah averaged fewer than 90 points during its three regular season meetings against the Thunder. So I believe the first playoff game was an aberration due to extremely hot long range shooting. Intensity and defense go up during the playoffs not down. Look for a return to the norm here in a tight defensive game.
04-17-18	White Sox v. A's OVER 8	Top	2-10	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
Oakland is underrated offensively right now. The A's have scored 38 runs in their last five games. They rank in the top-five in batting average and home runs. The A's not only have power in the outfield and at the corners, but also in the middle infield with Marcus Siemien and Jed Lowrie. The A's should be able to tee off on 33-year-old Miguel Gonzalez, who I regard as one of the weakest starting pitchers in baseball. Gonzalez may not be in Chicago's starting rotation much longer. He's allowed nine earned runs and 16 hits in his first two starts this season spanning 9 1/3 innings. Gonzalez hasn't reached the sixth inning in either of his starts and Chicago has a below average bullpen. Gonzalez is 0-3 lifetime versus Oakland with a 4.11 ERA in six appearances, including five starts. He's also going to be rusty having not pitched in eight days. The White Sox should do their share of damage against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who was subpar in the minors this season until getting the call to pitch this game. Cahill has a 4.21 career ERA against the White Sox in 12 appearances, including nine starts. Oakland's bullpen is vulnerable, too. Both weather and the home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Over. The forecast is for temperatues in the 50's - which is balmy compared to other baseball sites in this cold weather April - with the wind blowing out to right at 15 mph. Chad Whitson is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been full-time in the majors since 2016. The Over has cashed during 60 percent of his 43 games behind the plate.
04-17-18	Capitals v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5		3-2	Win	100	11 h 29 m	Show
The Blue Jackets own a surprising 2-0 playoff series lead on the Capitals winning the first two games at Washington, 4-3 and 5-4. Both of those games sailed Over the 5 1/2 total. But with the series shifting to Columbus I see fewer goals in this Game 3. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is proving that he can be as good in the playoffs as during the regular season. He's been outstanding. The Blue Jackets got away with their victories despite being whistled for 13 penalties resulting in five power play goals for Washington. I don't see the Blue Jackets being called for so many penalties at home. The Capitals are going to be hard-pressed to score without a man advantage. But the veteran Capitals are not going to panic down 2-0. They forced seven games against the Stanley Cup champion Penguins after falling behind 2-0 in their second-round series last year. I envision the Capitals playing more conservative on the road and switching back to starting goalie Braden Holtby.
04-17-18	Wizards +6.5 v. Raptors		119-130	Loss	-101	16 h 56 m	Show
The Wizards fell 114-106 in Saturday's Game 1 of this playoff series. But Washington was leading much of the time until midway through the final quarter. The Raptors hit 16 of 30 3-point shots for 53.3 percent. The 16 3-pointers was a franchise playoff record. I don't see the Raptors repeating that performance. These teams are closer than perceived. They split their four regular season games. The Wizards made just 8 of 21 3-point shots from 3-point range. The Raptors aren't that good from long range and the Wizards figure to shoot better. John Wall is getting more comfortable since returning from injury. The Raptors may be without key backcourt reserve Fred VanVleet, too. He has a shoulder injury.
04-16-18	Spurs +10 v. Warriors		101-116	Loss	-115	12 h 39 m	Show
There's an overreaction to the Warriors' 113-92 burial of the Spurs from Saturday's opening playoff game. The Warriors may be back on track defensively, but they are not the powerhouse of the previous two seasons. The Warriors remain without Stephen Curry and are 8-10 in their last 18 games. This is a down year for the Spurs. But they still have the talent, bench and tremendous coaching to be respectable if not dangerous. I'm looking for a strong effort from San Antonio after its embarrassing first game loss. Only twice in their last 17 games, have the Spurs lost by double-digits. Golden State is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory of more than 10 points. The Warriors also have failed to cover 12 of the last 14 times when playing on one day's rest.
04-16-18	Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5	Top	10-3	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
I'm not impressed with a starting pitching matchup of Hyun-Jin Ryu versus fill-in starter Robbie Erlin. Ryu is far less effective on the road while Erlin is a reliever who is starting here because Luis Perdomo is suspended. So this could be a bullpen game for the Padres, who are weak in middle relief. The Dodgers' offense is showing signs of coming around scoring six or more runs in three of their last four games. The Padres' offense is underrated. San Diego has scored four or more runs in six of its last seven games. The Padres just scored a combined 20 runs at home in their last three games versus the Giants.
04-16-18	Predators v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		3-5	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
There have been seven and nine goals scored during the first two games of this series, I don't see a lower scorer with the teams coming to Colorado for Game 3. This has been an Over series for a long time with the Over winning 72 percent of the time during the past 31 meetings. Only once in the last eight get togethers in Colorado has the Under won between these two teams. The Predators have scored four or more goals in eight of their last 10 games. They've scored five goals in each of the first two games of this series. The Avalanche have notched 10 goals during their last two home games. If the Predators should be holding a late one-goal lead there is not just the possibility of one open net goal but two because the Avalanche can't fall behind 3-0 in the series. This is their season right here. So they are will be playing a high risk game here, which should lead to additional scoring chances both ways.
04-16-18	Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5	Top	2-4	Win	100	17 h 19 m	Show
The Bruins are averaging six goals per game in running up a 2-0 series lead on the Maple Leafs. Boston's top line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand are playing out of their minds. Frederik Andersen has looked shaky in goal. So I don't see the Bruins letting up. They are going to get their goals. But the Maple Leafs should be much better returning home especially their No. 1 line headed by emerging superstar Auston Matthews. I don't see the Bruins keeping Matthews in check with the series shifting to Toronto. Toronto has scored four or more goals in nine of its last 11 home games.
04-15-18	Wolves v. Rockets OVER 216	Top	101-104	Loss	-110	16 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota is fortunate to be in the playoffs. The Timberwolves rank among the eight worst teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Jimmy Butler is their only above average defender. The Timberwolves aren't going to be able to slow down the Rockets. Houston was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 112.4 points per game. The Rockets scored 129, 120, 126 and 116 during their four regular season games against the Timberwolves. James Harden and Chris Paul are rested and ready. Minnesota should get its points, too, especially with the Rockets missing their top defender, injured Luc Mbah Moute. Karl-Anthony Towns is a double-double machine while Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague should provide plenty of backcourt scoring to go with Butler's dynamic offensive skills.
04-15-18	Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 5.5		5-4	Win	110	8 h 59 m	Show
These teams accounted for seven goals in the Blue Jackets' 4-3 overtime Game 1 victory and I don't see why they can't combine for at least six goals here. Washington has scored three or more goals in eight of its last nine games. The Capitals' fourth line should be bolstered by the return of center Jay Beagle, who has been out since the start of the month. Columbus goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has a history of being much better during the regular season than in the playoffs. The Blue Jackets finished the regular season scoring the most goals of any team during the last 28 games. The Capitals are sticking with backup goalie Phillipp Grubauer as their Game 2 starter. Grubauer is largely untested in Stanley Cup action.
04-15-18	Pacers v. Cavs OVER 212.5		98-80	Loss	-110	11 h 46 m	Show
This total has been steamed down low enough where there is value on the Over. Victor Oladipo is a legitimate All-Star averaging 23.1 points. Darren Collison is an underrated 3-point shooting point guard. Cleveland is a bottom-five defensive team. The Cavaliers don't have the defensive personnel to transform themselves even though the intensity level will be raised since this is the playoffs. Kevin Love is extremely weak defensively in the middle. LeBron James' presecence assures Cleveland will get its share of points. James had a tremendous season even by his Hall of Fame standards averaging 27.5 points and 9.1 assists while shooting 54.2 percent from the floor.
04-14-18	Sharks v. Ducks -131		3-2	Loss	-131	19 h 45 m	Show
The Ducks picked a bad time to lay a stinker at home after finishing the regular season 10-1-1 in their last 12 games. San Jose rolled past Anaheim, 3-0, this past Thursday. Anaheim has won seven of the last eight times when coming off a loss of three or more goals. I believe the Ducks bounce back again at home in Game 2 today. The Ducks' top line of Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry can't play worse than they did in Game 1. I also don't see the Ducks committing as many foolish penalties even though their intensity level should be way up. Anaheim has won 20 of its last 27 home games, including seven of its past eight. The Sharks are past their prime.
04-14-18	Heat +7 v. 76ers	Top	103-130	Loss	-105	29 h 27 m	Show
The 76ers are the hottest team in the NBA winners of 16 games in a row. But they are vulnerable now that it's playoff time. How's that? Let's take a closer look. Center Joel Embiid is arguably Philly's most valuable player depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons. Certainly Embiid is the 76ers' best big man. He has missed the past eight games because of an orbital fracture and is not expected to play in this Game 1. The 76ers have won all eight of those games. However, six of those victories were against non-playoff opponents. No Embiid means the Heat have the best big man on the floor in Hassan Whiteside. The Heat are healthy as All-Star point guard Goran Dragic is expected to play after sitting out Wednesday's victory against the Raptors with a bruised knee. Philadelphia last made the playoffs in 2012. Brett Brown has never coached a postseason game in the NBA. The Heat are the more experienced team, battle tested, have the stronger bench and one of the top coaches in the league, Erik Spoelstra. The Heat have defense and depth. That can trump first-string talent, an edge the 76ers hold. Playoff basketball is different than the regular season something the 76ers have not experienced. Miami is the type of blue-collar, experienced, well-coached team that can take advantage of the 76ers' youth and total lack of playoff experience. All of the pressure is on the 76ers especially being at home. They are in uncharted waters and being asked to cover a mid-range point spread number. This is a lot of points for Philly to be laying. No team in the NBA hangs around as much as the Heat do. They were involved in games with a five-point differential with fewer than five minutes to play in regulation more than any other team in the league. Miami and Philadelphia met four times during the regular season. The 76ers won the first two, the Heat captured the last two. The Heat outscored the 76ers by two points during the four games. There is no reason why this shouldn't be another close game, too.
04-14-18	Heat v. 76ers UNDER 212		103-130	Loss	-102	29 h 18 m	Show
This should be a defensive battle just based on face value. The Heat gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. The 76ers ranked first in defensive field goal percentge. There are key elements that should make this even more of a defensive game, too. The 76ers are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2012. They are very talented, but very young. Nerves and inexperience could hurt their offense. Joel Embiid isn't likley to play. If he does, he'll be rusty having missed the last eight games because of an orbital fracture. The 76ers lose a large chunk of their inside offense without Embiid. Both teams rebound well so there shouldn't be many second-chance points. Miami is a bottom-eight scoring team. The Heat are a hard-nosed defensive team that lacks a superstar scorer. This figures to be a rugged half-court game typical of playoff basketball in the NBA.
04-14-18	Brewers +106 v. Mets		5-1	Win	106	15 h 46 m	Show
The Brewers are showing signs of turning around their offense. I like Milwaukee's Chase Anderson over Matt Harvey so the pitching matchup is in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers are 17-8 the past 25 times going against a right-handed starter and have defeated the Mets seven of the last 10 times despite losing by one run in the opening game of the series on Friday. The Mets are down to their third-string catcher. That's going to catch up to them real fast.
04-14-18	Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 208.5		92-113	Win	100	25 h 42 m	Show
To understand why Under should work here there's a need to clear up two misconceptions. Misconception No. 1: The Spurs aren't a good defensive team without Kawhi Leonard. Not true. They surrendered the fewest points per game in the league were fourth in 3-point defense and fourth in overall defensive efficiency. San Antonio is a disciplined, well-coached team that doesn't mess up its defensive assignments. Misconception No. 2: The Warriors are all about offense. Even though they won't have injured Stephen Curry, they have tremendous offensive players in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. This isn't entirely true. Druant, Thompson and especially Green also are very good defensively. Durant averaged the seventh-most blocks per game in the league. Reserve Andre Iguodala is a top-notch defensive player, too. Golden State mailed in its last four games knowing it wasn't moving in or out of the No. 2 seed. The Warriors are laying in the weeds defensively. Their offense isn't as potent minus Curry. Defense is their winning ticket. Aside from LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs lack a consistent scorer. And Green will be watching Aldridge. These rivals know each other well having met in the Western Conference championship round last season. Note an early start time, too, which is a plus for the Under.
04-13-18	A's v. Mariners +110	Top	4-7	Win	110	13 h 8 m	Show
Throwing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field agrees with Mike Leake. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts at Safeco since coming to the Mariners last season. Leake is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Some perceive Leake as just an innings-eater. I believe he's better than that especially when pitching in Seattle. The Mariners have a dynamite speed offense that should be even better with the possibility of Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel returning today from injuries. The A's should not have opened a road favorite here. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has an 8.53 ERA in three appearances against Seattle, including two starts. Seattle has defeated Oakland in 12 of the last 19 meetings, winning seven of the last 10 at Safeco Field.
04-13-18	Wild +175 v. Jets		1-4	Loss	-100	16 h 23 m	Show
The Jets got past the Wild, 3-2, in Wednesday's Game 1 playoff series opener. The Wild didn't play that well, yet still lost by just one goal. Minnesota is the more experienced playoff team and is capable of stepping up. I see that happening here. The Jets may not have Mathieu Perrault. They already are without center Matt Hendricks and defensemen Toby Enstrom and Dmitry Kulikov. At this huge plus price, the veteran Wild are worth backing.
04-13-18	Brewers v. Mets OVER 8.5		5-6	Win	105	10 h 4 m	Show
It shouldn't be too difficult for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. The wind is blowing out at 12-14 mph and the pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Steven Matz. Davies isn't a good pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and a 4.22 career ERA against the Mets in four all-time starts. The Brewers' bullpen has become unreliable with closer Corey Knebel out with a hamstring injury. Matz has yet to live up to his potential. He has been disappointing for more than a year now. He has a 4.15 ERA in two career outtings against Milwaukee.
04-13-18	Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9		2-1	Loss	-115	10 h 5 m	Show
A lackluster pitching matchup of Kyle Freeland versus Tanner Roark on a warm, breezy day in Washington should produce double-digit runs given the quality of each team's offense. Freeland is a decent day pitcher at home. This is a night game in Washington. So expect bad things from Freeland, who has a 5.56 ERA and been stung for four home runs in two starts. Freeland has a 4.82 career road ERA in 13 away starts. Roark is a bottom of the rotation type starter who doesn't miss many bats. He has a 4.50 ERA this season and a 4.91 career ERA in three appearances against the Rockies, including two starts. Hitters should get a boost with the wind blowing out at 17 mph.
04-13-18	Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6		5-1	Push	0	16 h 55 m	Show
The Penguins' offense and the Flyers' weak goaltending is an excellent formula for more than six goals to be produced. The Penguins took care of the Over just by themselves during Wednesday's Game 1 of this series scoring seven goals. That was the 19th time in their last 26 games, the Penguins have gone Over. Prior to Wednesday's game, the Flyers had scored 17 goals in their last four games. So I expect the Flyers to contribute more to their share of the offense today. They did actually fire off more shots than Pittsburgh in Game 1. The Penguins' offense, though, remains in high gear. Pittsburgh has produced four or more goals in five of its last six games. The Flyers lack the defense and goalies to keep Pittsburgh's high flying offense in check.
04-12-18	Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 5.5		4-3	Win	105	18 h 35 m	Show
The Capitals are a top-10 scoring team. They scored three or more goals in seven of their last eight games. Alex Ovechkin led the NHL with 49 goals, John Carlson was the top-point producing defeseman and Evgeny Kuznetsov piled up 28 points during the final 18 games. So I have full confidence the Capitals will hold up their offensive end. I'm not worried about the layoff as the Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Washington has played with three or more days rest. I'm also not concerned about Sergei Bobrovsky in net for Columbus. He's been a lot better during the regular season than in the playoffs where he's 3-10 with a 3.63 GAA and .887 save percentage. The Blue Jackets should hold up their end, too. They led the NHL in scoring during the final 28 games averaging 3.6 goals during this span. Only three times in their last 17 games have the Blue Jackets failed to produce a minimum of three goals per game. In a bit of a surprise, the Capitals are going with Philipp Grubauer in net instead of Braden Holtby. Grubauer is untested in Stanley Cup action having played less than 80 minutes of playoff hockey.
04-12-18	Devils v. Lightning OVER 5.5	Top	2-5	Win	100	67 h 27 m	Show
Nice job by the Devils to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season after finishing with the worst record in the NHL last year. The Devils are heavy underdogs here so they are playing on house money. New Jersey is young and has fast skaters. All four of Devils' lines possess speed. The Devils went 3-0 against Tampa Bay this season. So they aren't going to alter their game and become grinders. Taylor Hall is a major scoring threat. The Devils are going to play fast, which is excellent for the Over. The Over has cashed in eight of New Jersey's last 11 games with six of those Over games lined at 6 and the other Overs lined at 5 1/2. The Lightning's defense has become broken. Tampa Bay has allowed three or more goals in 17 of its past 22 games. The Lightning rank 28th in penalty killing, while the Devils rank among the top 10 in power play goals. Tampa Bay is about offense not defense. Not only were the Lightning the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL, but they scored the most 5-on-5 goals since the 2009-10 Capitals. Keith Kinkaid has emerged as the Devils' No. 1 goalie with Cory Schneider battling a groin injury. Kinkaid played well down the stretch, but has zero playoff experience.
04-12-18	Cardinals -142 v. Reds		13-4	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Cardinals minus $1.45 at Reds Early money has steamed up the Cardinals and I can understand why. It's the right move as the Reds are as bad as ever under Bryan Price and Michael Wacha has owned Cincinnati. The Reds are on their way to a fourth straight 90-loss season - if not 100 losses - with the worst record in the majors at 2-9. Price is dead man walking. It's amazing the Red have stuck with him as long as they have. St. Louis is 11-1 versus the Reds in Wacha's 12 starts. Wacha has a 2.85 lifetime ERA against Cincinnat. Wacha's has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings pitching in Cincinnati. That's really impressive considering what a strong hitter's park that Great American Ball Park is. The Cardinals' bats should come alive there especially facing Sal Romano, perhaps the worst of the Reds' weak starting pitching. Romano has a 4.59 career ERA in 18 starts and has more walks than strikeouts this season.
04-11-18	Diamondbacks -110 v. Giants	Top	7-3	Win	100	7 h 15 m	Show
I find excellent value on the Diamondbacks here. Arizona is the superior team and should have a huge starting pitching mismatch. Robbie Ray is a "B" level pitcher who is elite status when it comes to strikeouts. He's 4-1 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts. This includes a 3-1 mark and 1.46 ERA in four career starts at San Francisco. , The Giants are going with untested Andrew Suarez, who only was called up due to Johnny Cueto going on the DL. The Diamondbacks have plenty of right-handed hitters who can hurt Suarez, including Paul Goldschmidt who got back on track last night.
04-10-18	A's v. Dodgers -121	Top	0-4	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
Both teams have started slow. In the case of the Dodgers they will get things turned around. I doubt the A's can do that because they aren't a very good team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are very unreliable. Oakland is hurt more than the Dodgers, too, by not having a DH since this game is at Dodgers Stadium. The A's outfield depth is being tested with Chad Pinder and Boog Powell going on the DL. This is a battle of lefties - Sean Manaea versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I like Ryu when he pitches at home where historically he has been much better than on the road. Oakland has lost 21 of its last 30 interleague games. The A's have lost 78 percent of their past 65 road games, too, when going against a southpaw starter. The Dodgers are a dominant 25-10 during their last 35 interleague home games.
04-09-18	Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
This total is too short. Unlike many other games, this is a matchup where the weather is nice. There's also a 10-12 mph wind blowing out. Arizona has one of the best offenses in the National League. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They draw Derek Holland and a revamped - and largely untested - San Francisco bullpen that lacks a reliable closer. Holland struggled with the White Sox during the second half of last year going 2-5 with an 8.93 ERA during his final 12 appearances that included nine starts. He had a 4.05 spring training ERA and last pitched on March 31 so he figures to be rusty. Zack Godley is showing a lot of promise, but he's still a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher and has a bad history against the Giants with a 7.84 lifetime ERA in four appearances versus San Francisco.
04-09-18	Kings +14.5 v. Spurs		85-98	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
The Spurs aren't dominant like they have been in the past. San Antonio isn't likely to blow out the Kings especially given the circumstances. The Kings are a respectable 5-7 during their past 12 games. Only twice during these last dozen games have the Kings lost by more than 11 points. They are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 away contests. The Spurs just beat the Trail Blazers two days ago and have a much bigger game on deck Wednesday playing at the Pelicans. San Antonio has failed to cover four of the last five times against foes with a road win percentage of less than .400. The goal for the Spurs is to win this game, not go balls-out to cover a huge margin. San Antonio has been playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during the last 10 games. So that makes covering this big number even more difficult.