I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season.

There's not much to nit-pick about Marquette. I just don't trust the Golden Eagles on the road where they have lost to Seton Hall, Providence and Wisconsin.

Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.

The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.

Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.

Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.

St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs.
 
Look for the Peacocks to take out their frustrations out at home against a terrible Siena team that is 4-20 overall and 2-15 in its last 17 games. 

The Saints hosted St. Peter's on Jan. 28 and lost, 63-52. Siena turned the ball over 19 times in that game. That wasn't anything new. The Saints have the second-worst turnover rate in the nation, average just 60.4 points and shoot 39.9 percent from the floor. St. Peter's ranks 23rd defensively in turnover rate. The Peacocks rank 20th defensively holding foes to 64.6 points per game.

Going by the KenPom rankings, the Peacocks rank 233rd compared to Siena's 358th placement.

Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games.

The teams met in Jacksonville on Jan. 18 with the home team winning, 79-77. The Dolphins shot 72.6 from the foul line in that game. Queens, by contrast, could make only 21 of 43 free throws for 49 percent. Queens shoots 70.6 percent from the foul line.

So I see Queens getting its revenge in this rematch.

I don't find it too much to ask the Warriors to beat the reeling Jazz in Utah for the second time in four days. Golden State hammered Utah, 129-107, this past Monday.

The Jazz are using the buildup to All-Star break to experiment and work on different rotation combinations. The result has been three straight losses and non-covers by a losing margin of 17.3 points.

Golden State is 7-2 in its last nine games. However, the Warriors are coming off a 12-point blown lead in the fourth quarter in a 130-125 loss to the Clippers last night. Utah also played last night, losing to the Lakers by 16 points at home. So neither team has a rest advantage.

The Warriors are in better form and are the superior team.

Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.

The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.

Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.

Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.

I'm going to use the Zig-Zag method on this total. Both the Wizards and Pelicans are off strong defensive performances where their offenses were held in check. 

Look for the opposite to happen in this matchup, the team's final game before the All-Star break. 

Before holding the Mavericks to 112 points in their last game, the Wizards had allowed an average of 126.5 points in their past four contests.
Washington is the second-worst defensive team in the NBA giving up 123.7 points a game.

New Orleans ranks in the top-nine in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. If you discount a 107-83 loss to the Thunder, the Pelicans are averaging 133 points during their past four home games. 

This is just the Pelicans' second home game since Jan. 26. The Pelicans want to provide a show to their fans entering All-Star break. The Wizards are likely to accommodate them since they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. 

This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in.

Minnesota is fat and happy off an impressive, 121-100, road victory against the Clippers last night. The Timberwolves can't be faulted if they take the lowly Trail Blazers, a team they buried, 116-93, at home on Jan. 12, not very seriously.

Portland, though, is well-rested and off a tremendous defensive performance. The Trail Blazers held New Orleans to 93 points in their last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Pelicans' season average. However, the Trail Blazers didn't have Simons, their top player and leading scorer, so they couldn't muster up enough offense to win.

Simons is expected to return today from his left ankle sprain. That's huge. It's an extra bonus if Scott Henderson also can play for Portland. He's questionable with a foot sprain.

Portland has been home for eight days, idle for the past two full days. Minnesota is playing its fourth consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have a losing ATS mark when playing in the second of back-to-back days.

The Trail Blazers are 4-3 in their last seven home games with straight-up upset victories against the Bucks, 76ers, Pacers and Nets during this span.

When the Timberwolves rolled past the Trail Blazers in the team's first meeting, Portland was at the tail end of a seven-game road trip and had just played the Thunder the previous night. Now it's the Timberwolves who have a fatigue rating.

Note, too, the teams meet again in Portland on Thursday. So the Timberwolves may hold back some things knowing they have to play this same opponent in their next game.

You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.

Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.

That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.

The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.

Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.

Pittsburgh upset Virginia when these teams last met last season. The Cavaliers won't let it happen again, especially at home where they are 13-0.

Virginia, in fact, has the longest home winning streak in NCAA Division I with 23 straight victories. 

Pittsburgh is fat and happy riding a three-game win streak. Two of those wins were in a favorite's role against Notre Dame and Wake Forest.

The Panthers' 3-point defense is showing signs of regression. That could prove crucial as the Cavaliers' strengths are their third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. During the past four weeks, the Cavaliers are the fifth-hottest shooting 3-point team. 

This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games.

The Hawks give up 123.7 points a game. That ranks second-to-last in the NBA. The Bulls rate 11th defensively, allowing 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.

Atlanta has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 17-36 (32 percent) ATS. The Hawks are very bad in this role going 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points. It's also Atlanta's third game in four days.

Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

Northwestern is laying too many points here against a hot Penn State team that has won and covered its last three games, beating Rutgers and Indiana on the road and Iowa at home. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

Penn State averages more points per game than Northwestern and has revenge for a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats from Jan. 10. The Nittany Lions led Northwestern by eight points at halftime during that first meeting. But they finished just 3-of-17 from 3-point range. The Wildcats rank 321st in 3-point defense. Penn State should shoot better from 3-point range against this opponent this time around while it's highly unlikely the Wildcats hit 61 percent of their shots from the floor like they did in the first meeting.

Northwestern could be without guard Ty Berry, who is the Wildcats' fourth-leading scorer and best free throw shooter. He suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game, an 80-68 victory against Nebraska this past Wednesday.

The Oilers beat the Ducks, 5-3, on Friday. The Kings last played on Jan. 31 - 10 days ago. So what we have here is a fatigue vs a huge rust situation. It's unique and sets up an Under given the high total for this game. 

It's easy to think of goals with the Oilers since they have the magnificent Connor McDavid. But Edmonton has had an unbelievable long run of excellent defense. The Oilers have given up fewer than three goals in 14 of their last 16 games. 

Calvin Pickard was in net for the Oilers against the Ducks on Friday night. So a fresh Stuart Skinner will get the start in goal today. He's been brilliant having not allowed more than two goals during his last 12 games. Skinner surrendered fewer than two goals in half of those games. 

Edmonton will be playing for the third time in five days and second in two nights. So the Oilers carry a fatigue rating. That usually means an increased emphasis on defense and slower pace. 

The Kings entered the weekend ranked sixth defensively with the top penalty kill unit in the NHL. This also is the Kings' first game under interim head coach Jim Hiller. He replaced the fired Todd McLellan. That should ensure a huge defensive effort from the Kings.

Providence defeated Butler, 85-75, in overtime on Dec. 23. Much has changed since then. Butler is the better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last five games with their only defeat in this time frame coming on the road to top-ranked Connecticut. Butler covered as a 14 1/2-point road 'dog in that game, losing, 71-62. The Bulldogs have covered in their last four games.

Providence lost Bryce Hopkins, its third-leading scorer, shortly after beating Butler. The Friars are 4-5 since losing Hopkins. They are off a 91-87 overtime victory against Creighton at home this past Wednesday. But that could cause a letdown in this spot.

Before the season, the SEC media picked Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the conference and South Carolina to place last. Vanderbilt has held true to that prediction with a 1-8 SEC mark.

But not South Carolina. The 15th-ranked Gamecocks are tied for first in the conference thanks to a six-game winning streak.

I don't see South Carolina having any trouble hosting Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks hold huge edges on the frontcourt and depth-wise. Vanderbilt is 1-8 in its last nine games with its last six defeats all occurring by 13 or more points.

Xavier is playing well and in revenge mode for an 85-78 road loss to Creighton on Jan. 23.

The Musketeers are 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Xavier is 7-1 in its last eight home games with its lone loss during this span coming to top-ranked Connecticut.

Creighton has to get over a tough, 91-87, overtime road loss to Providence this past Wednesday. The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including 0-4 ATS during their past four games.

The Pelicans are playing well, riding a four-game win streak. They rested in Los Angeles on Thursday after upsetting the Clippers on Wednesday. The Lakers, meanwhile, played hard but not smart in losing to the Nuggets, 114-106, on Thursday night.

That was a highly-emotional game for the Lakers as the organization honored the late Kobe Bryant before the game. Anthony Davis logged more than 38 minutes and LeBron James had more than 35 minutes of game time. It wouldn't be shocking if one of them was held out since this is a back-to-back spot for LA. It's also the Lakers' eighth game in 12 days.

The Pelicans are younger and faster than the aged Lakers, who are 2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS when playing without rest.

As bad as the Hornets are, the Bucks are in no position to lay this many points to them. Milwaukee is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks carry a high fatigue rating, have key injuries and Doc Rivers has been a near-disaster so far as the Bucks' coach. 

This is the Bucks' fifth game in seven days and second in two days after they were buried, 129-105, by the Timberwolves at home last night. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' second and third-best players, missed that game because of ankle injuries. 

The Hornets have lost nine in a row, although they've covered in their last two games. Charlotte also has injuries, but have Cody Martin back. 
Clearly, though, my handicap is a fade on the Bucks, who have failed to cover 17 of 21 times against sub .500 opponents this season.

Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.

It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.

VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.

The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.

The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. 
Sometimes it's dangerous to back a team playing their first home game following a lengthy road trip. That certainly was the case with the Clippers last night. They lost to the Pelicans by 11 points as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The Clippers had been playing well, too.

But this is a different case and much different situation. The Clippers only had one day of rest after returning to Los Angeles. The Lakers concluded their road swing this past Monday giving them two full days of rest and preparation. 

This also is the Lakers' biggest game of the season and it isn't just because they're playing the defending world champion Nuggets. 

It's a special night because the Lakers organization will be honoring the late Kobe Bryant before the game unveiling a statue of him. The game is going to be heavily attended with many dignitaries. It is being shown nationally on TNT. 

"Win one for Kobe,'' will be the Lakers' motto. So I'm expecting maximum motivation and effort. 

The Nuggets are off back-to-back home victories against the 15-35 Trail Blazers. Not exactly a worthy opponent. Denver has lost in its two previous road games, falling to the Thunder and getting blown out by the Knicks.

The Pistons are 3-20 on the road this season. Their latest road victory came last night in a 133-120 upset of the Kings. The Pistons achieved this unlikely victory without injured Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic leaving them with only nine players.

I don't see the Pistons, losers of 43 of 50 games, pulling off another upset on consecutive nights even if Cunningham, the team's leading scorer, returns to their lineup. Bogdanovic was traded to the Knicks today leaving the Pistons short-handed again.

Portland is 15-35, but playing better. The Trail Blazers upset both the Bucks and 76ers at home before traveling to Denver to play two straight road games against the Nuggets. They lost both of those games to the defending world champions, but covered each game. Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

Now the Trail Blazers return home, while stepping way down in class. They have had ample rest and preparation time, too, having last played this past Sunday.

Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game.
 
As home underdogs this season, the Beavers are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS. Washington is mediocre on the road with a 3-3 SU and ATS mark. 

Oregon State gave Washington State a battle in Pullman, Wash., on Jan. 4 losing, 65-58. The Beavers were missing their third-leading scorer, Dexter Akanno, in that game. 

No disrespect to the Canucks, who have been playing great hockey. But I want the Bruins going for me after their coach, Jim Montgomery, was highly critical of his team following Boston's 4-1 loss to the Flames coming off break.

Prior to that defeat, Boston had gone 7-1 in its last eight games and had only dropped two games all season in regulation to Western Conference opponents.

Vancouver wasn't that sharp either in its return from break. But the Canucks got past the Hurricanes, 3-2, on the road despite being outshot.

The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers.

The Clippers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday after finishing a seven-game, 11-day road trip with a victory against the Hawks in Atlanta this past Monday night. There were 293 points scored in the Clippers' crazy, 149-144, victory against the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden each played more than 37 minutes in that game. 

Now the Clippers have to get used to being home having played in a different arena for the past seven games. LA has to be feeling good having gone 6-1 on its road trip. The Clippers are not only in a letdown spot, but their concentration could be off having been gone for so long. They also might be dealing with dead legs in action for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. 

New Orleans is playing well, too, riding a three-game win streak. The Pelicans don't have nearly the fatigue factor LA does. This is just the Pelicans' second game in five days.  

The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The road team has won each of the first two games. Attendance could be less than normal for the Clippers because of the heavy rains that hit southern California. 

Miami hasn't gotten going this season, losing eight of its last 11 games. But the Heat did win a satisfying game beating in-state rival Orlando, 121-95, last night.

The Heat are 1-3-1 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. They also have been terrible in the role of a large home favorite failing to cover 17 of the past 22 times when laying five or more points.

This is the start of the Spurs' nine-game rodeo trip so they'll want to get off to a good start.

Prior to their win against the Magic, the Heat were averaging 101.7 points in their previous 13 games. The Spurs are averaging 114.6 points in regulation during their last 15 games.

Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close.

The Paladins rank 33rd in the nation in scoring averaging 81.3 points a game. They have scored 82 or more points in five of their past eight games.

Mercer averages 11 points fewer per game than Furman. The Bears also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country making only 65.6 percent. They are 2-6 in their last eight games.

Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28.

So why back Pacific in the rematch besides the Tigers being at home this time?

The timing. Not only can the Gaels be forgiven if they enter this matchup overconfident, but it's also a huge flat spot for them.

Saint Mary's is off a monster, 64-62, road upset victory against its major rival, Gonzaga, this past Saturday night. It's going to be extremely difficult for the Gaels to get motivated for this matchup.

The Gaels are 18-6 and lead the West Coast Conference with a 9-0 mark. However, they are just mediocre point spread-wise with an 11-11 ATS record.

It's asking a lot for Saint Mary's to cover this large number given the situation and that its offense averages just 72.5 points. The Gaels rank 254th in field goal percentage and 289th in free throw percentage.

Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz.

The Bucks had wide open shots in that loss to Utah. But they blew a 19-point lead, collapsing in the fourth quarter. The high mountain altitude in Utah might have had something to do with that.

Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA and fourth-best shooting team. The Bucks should fare much better with a full day rest and getting out of the mountain air. Phoenix is just an average defensive team.

The Bucks have won the past three times they've faced the Suns in the regular season. Milwaukee also draws Phoenix with the Suns in a vulnerable spot.

The Suns concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Sunday blowing out Washington. That was a huge, motivational game for the Suns because of Bradley Beal's return to face his former Wizards team.

Now the Suns are playing at home for the first time since Jan. 22. Before they had embarked on their seven-game road trip, their longest road swing had been three away games in a row. The Suns did that three times. Phoenix failed to cover in their first home game back during each of those three road games in a row going 0-3 ATS. Look for that pattern to continue here.

The Avalanche are the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. They were held to just one goal by the Rangers last night coming off break. Colorado got the rust off with that game.

The Devils, though, haven't played in 10 days. They ranked 27th defensively. New Jersey also has a losing home record. 

I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.

Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.

The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.

Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.

Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup.

Kansas State is at low ebb with four consecutive losses. The Wildcats, though, have played tough competition during this span - road games against Iowa State and Houston and home games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Kansas State is capable of winning outright. The Wildcats bet LSU and Baylor while losing to Texas Tech on the road by one point.

The Wildcats are 10-2 at home. This is their biggest home game of the season - their Super Bowl.

"The atmosphere we'll play in on Monday will be very comparable to the atmosphere Houston played in today," Kansas coach Bill Self was quoted as saying on Saturday following the Jayhawks' upset win against the Cougars. "We'll have to go over there and play well ..."

Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game.
 
But on closer inspection, I find the Raptors to be a good value play here. 

Toronto hasn't been healthy. Now the Raptors are after getting back RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. They all played in the Raptors' last game two days ago. That was against Oklahoma City. The Raptors were 8 1/2-point underdogs. Toronto took the Thunder to double overtime before losing but covering. 

The Raptors have had a day to rest and recuperate. They haven't played in back-to-back games since Jan. 17-18. So the fatigue factor isn't that bad. 
New Orleans is laying double-digits despite being in an awkward scheduling spot. This is the Pelicans' sixth game in 11 days. They just concluded a four-game road trip with a one-point victory against the 10-40 Spurs this past Friday. The Pelicans pulled that game out when Zion Williamson scored with 3.8 seconds left. 

After this matchup, the Pelicans go back on the road for four more games. So their concentration level could be off. 

Both the Warriors and Nets are coming off high-scoring games. The Warriors lost 141-134 in overtime to the Hawks this past Saturday. Brooklyn rolled past the 76ers, 136-121, also this past Saturday.

Those games may have influenced the oddsmaker to open what I consider an artificially high total for this matchup.

Golden State had held its previous two opponents to an average of 104 points before losing to the Hawks. Atlanta is the third-highest scoring team in the NBA and plays at the fifth-fasted pace. The Nets are an entirely different opponent.

Brooklyn is average defensively, but below par offensively ranking 25th in field goal percentage. The Nets also are the fifth-worst free throwing shooting team in the league. More importantly, the Nets play at the second-slowest tempo in the NBA. Golden State ranks 12th in tempo. The Warriors' interior defense is improved with the return of Draymond Green from suspension.

I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here. 

Orlando is playing for the fifth time in eight days. It's the Magic's fourth consecutive road contest. They just rallied from 17 points down to upset the Timberwolves this past Friday. Orlando has a bigger matchup up next - on the road against in-state division rival Miami in a battle for first place in the Southeast Division. That game goes Tuesday. 

The Pistons have revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 123-91, loss to the Magic on Dec. 8. Following this matchup, the Pistons go on the road for a five-game West Coast trip. They won't play at home again until Feb. 24. 

So, yes, the spot is ripe for Detroit. But are the Pistons good enough to cover this number? They have been in their last three games. During this span, the Pistons upset the Thunder by 16 points as a 12-point home 'dog, lost by seven to the hot Cavaliers as a 13 1/2-point road 'dog and covered in their last game at home to the Clippers. Now the Pistons are dropping down in class after facing those three strong opponents.

I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row.

Gonzaga is 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. The Bulldogs are ranked 26th in the NCAA Net Rankings. The Gaels are ranked 21st in the NCAA Net Rankings.

The Gaels give up the third-fewest points in the country at 58.4. Their offense has picked up where they are averaging 78.8 points per game during their last six games.

This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.

Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.

Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.

The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.

This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. 

Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. 

Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game. 

Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58.

Kansas is 11-0 at home this season. This includes a win and cover against third-ranked Connecticut.

Houston has the top defense in the country, but is 2-2 in its Big 12 road games, 1-3 ATS. One of those conference victories came in overtime against Texas this past Monday. The Cougars are 3-6 ATS in road/neutral site games.

Texas is a terrible free throw shooting team and scores five fewer points per game than Kansas.

East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point.

The Buccaneers are a mediocre team with a 3-6 record in the Southern Conference. They are one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the country.

I liked what The Citadel did in its last game. The Bulldogs nearly upset Furman, losing by three points in overtime as a 7-point 'dog.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.

The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.

Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average.

Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider.

Rider is having a disappointing season, but still is a much superior team to Siena. The Broncos have had this matchup circled since that, 67-65, early December road loss.

The Broncos are playing better. They are off consecutive road upset victories against St. Peter's and Mount St. Mary's. They held those two opponents to an average of 59.5 points.

Siena has dropped four in a row. The Saints have injuries and trouble scoring, averaging only 50.3 points in their last three games.

Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games.

Quinnipiac is the best team in the MAAC with an 8-1 league mark and 16-4 overall record. The Bobcats average more than 78 points a game and are the ninth-best free throw shooting team in the nation. Manhattan averaged 12 fewer points per game than the Bobcats.

Quinnipiac had no problem handling Manhattan at home on Jan. 7 winning, 76-59.  

So I find this number short.

Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points.

Based on history, situation and statistical breakdowns, I strongly look for Vermont to control tempo, slow down Albany and have this total go Under.

Only once during the past seven meetings between these America East Conference rivals has Albany reached 68 points. The Great Danes have been held to an average of fewer than 64 points during this span.

I don't look for that to change. Albany is playing its third straight road game. Vermont has the best defense in the conference. The Catamounts also play at one of the slowest paces in the country ranking 346th. They rarely foul or turn the ball over. They should control the tempo being home and with Albany once again on the road.

Vermont is the best team right now in the league. The Catamounts aren't a top-50 caliber team, but they do rank 103rd in net rankings. Albany is averaging 64.6 points in its three games against top-104 teams Seton Hall, UMass and Drexel.

I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games. 

The Panthers should really be motivated for this matchup against the top team in the Sun Belt. The Panthers also are off a frustrating overtime loss to Coastal Carolina in their last game. 

The Mountaineers rank 26th in the country defensively. Georgia State, however, averages 78.9 points a game and is a very good free throw shooting team.

This is a huge revenge game for the Red Wings. They lost 5-1 to the Senators on Dec. 9 when Dylan Larkin was injured. The Red Wings haven't forgotten about that. Detroit has been playing much better since then going 9-2-1 this month. Ottawa, by contrast, is 5-7-2 this month.

The Red Wings have been idle since Saturday, while the Senators are in action for the fourth time in seven days.

Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road.

The Paladins are 1-7 in their true road games this season and 2-7-1 ATS in road/neutral site games.

The Citadel gives up seven fewer points per game than Furman and is more accurate from the field and 3-point range than the Paladins.

It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. 

The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is. 

The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. 
Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. 

San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.

I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month. 

Both teams carry high fatigue ratings having been in action last night. Utah is finishing its six-game road trip with this game. New York is in action for the fourth time in six days.

The Knicks have won a season-high seven in a row. They were in a flat spot against the Hornets on the road after satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. The Hornets, though, were too pathetic to even hang close. Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden for this matchup. The Jazz actually had the shorter distance to travel having lost to the Nets in Brooklyn last night. 

The Nets humiliated the Jazz, 147-114. That was Utah's second most lopsided loss of the season. I trust Will Hardy to have his Jazz motivated and ready to play much better against the Knicks, who played their first game of the season without Julius Randle last night. Randle is out with a dislocated right shoulder. New York center Mitchell Robinson is out for the season. Randle and Robinson are the Knicks' two top rebounders. 

The Knicks also didn't have OG Anunoby against the Hornets. He sat out with elbow inflammation. Randle and Anunoby are New York's second and third-leading scorers.
 
The Knicks are fat, happy and saddled with key injuries. That's a combination for a letdown.

Villanova needs this game much more than Marquette. The Wildcats are in serious stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row.

Marquette already has lost Big East Conference road games to Providence and Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles may be without their third-leading scorer, Kam Jones. He's questionable because of a sprained ankle.

The Wildcats are the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the nation.

The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season.

How come?

Several key factors. The Knicks are going to be without their star power forward Julius Randle for the first time this season. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in New York's Saturday victory against the Heat. This is a huge concern for the Knicks and a big distraction. Remember, the Knicks also don't have center Mitchell Robinson. He's out for the season. Robinson and Randle are the Knicks' two leading rebounders.

Another important factor is the timing of this matchup. The Knicks are coming off satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. This is just their second road game in 15 days. The Knicks return home for five games in a row following this matchup starting on Tuesday with a revenge game against the Jazz. So it's a very weird scheduling spot for New York.

The Hornets upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog last Monday. Charlotte won't lack motivation being home in a triple-revenge spot against an opponent that has other things on their mind and is in a letdown situation.

Nashville is one of the better road teams in the NHL and has a goalie edge with Juuse Saros back in net. Saros was rested in the Predators' last game, a 4-1 loss to the Oilers this past Saturday. Edmonton has won 16 in a row. The Predators held the Oilers to only 21 shots on goal. That was the second-fewest shots Edmonton took all season.

Ottawa is just .500 at home. The Senators pulled their goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, in their last game, a 7-2 loss to the Rangers two days ago.

The Senators rank third-from-the-bottom in defense and in penalty killing.

The Predators have dominated this series going 10-1-3 during the last 14 meetings.

I find this total too short given the circumstances and current form of these two teams.

The Blue Jackets are the second-worst defensive team in the NHL. They have surrendered at least four goals in 14 of their last 19 games. Columbus also carries a huge fatigue factor playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest after losing, 5-4, in overtime at Vancouver last night. The Blue Jackets ran out of gas surrendering three goals in the third period to the Canucks. That doesn't bode well for this matchup.

Seattle has scored nine goals in its last two games.

Columbus, though, also has scored nine goals in its last two games and produced at least four goals in four of its last six games.

The Kraken have allowed three or more goals in six of their past seven games.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games.

But Atlanta isn't playing well either having lost and failed to cover in its last four games. The Hawks are an auto-fade for me in this price range.

The Hawks have by far the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 11-34 for 24 percent. They are especially terrible in this role going 1-11 ATS when favored by more than one point.

The Raptors have enough offense to take advantage of the Hawks' porous defense, which ranks in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage.

Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago.

The 76ers beat Denver, 126-121, in that game. Philadelphia hit 57 percent from the floor and 48 percent from 3-point range. The 76ers also shot nine more free throws than Denver. I don't see a repeat of that with the teams now meeting in Denver. This is rapid revenge for the prideful defending world champion Nuggets.

The Nuggets are 17-4 at home. The 76ers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games with straight-up losses to the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls during this time frame.

It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.

But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.

Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.

The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.

The Kings are becoming a near auto-fade under Todd McLellan as the All-Star break draws near. LA is 2-12 in its last 14 games. The Kings just lost at home as huge favorites to the Sharks and Sabres this past Wednesday blowing a 3-1 lead.

I don't see the Kings bouncing back against the Avalanche, winners of 12 of their last 16 games. I see the Kings as a dead team going into break and McLellan perhaps getting fired.

Colorado is averaging 4.6 goals a game in its last 11 games. The Kings are averaging just two goals a game during their past five games.

The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation.

The spot is ripe, too, for Orlando. The Magic are off an embarrassing 27-point home loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday. They came into the matchup having beat the Heat the night before. Now they've had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup.

Memphis is in a rare flat spot returning home after posting upset road wins against the Raptors this past Monday and Heat two days ago. The Grizzlies are a putrid 4-15 at home and not much better point spread wise at 5-14 (26 percent) ATS.

Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.

The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.

Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.

Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona.

But the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is a competitive conference so I'm going to sell high on the Bobcats and take this many points with underdog Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are respectable on defense and a good shooting team.

I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs.

But that's not the lead story for me in this matchup. I see the top story being Indiana's emerging superstar, Tyrese Haliburton, is going to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Haliburton leads the Pacers in scoring at 23.6 points per game and tops the NBA in assists at 12.6 a game.

Haliburton's absence changes many things, including the total. He has missed seven of Indiana's last nine games. The Pacers have gone Under in six of their past seven games minus Haliburton, including a 114-109 home loss to the Nuggets this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 14 points.

It's not a coincidence the Pacers are an Under team without Haliburton. Not only do they miss his dynamic offense, but their tempo is slower without him. Indiana averages 124.6 points. The Pacers have averaged 108.2 points in their last four games minus Haliburton.

Embiid's scoring gets all the attention. But the 76ers are a strong defensive club. They give up the eighth-fewest points in the league and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense.

Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. The Pacers are going to have to dig deep to beat the 76ers. They are home, though, and should provide a strong defensive effort to compensate for not having Haliburton.

SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game.

North Texas also is 8-0 at home, covering all but one of its lined home games.

I see the Mean Green really being up for this matchup after their six-game win streak was snapped by Charlotte on the road this past Saturday.

North Texas had held its last four opponents below 60 points. I don't feel the Mean Green should be a home 'dog to SMU.

A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.

The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.

Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.

Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.

Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).

The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.

While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.

After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points.

Charlotte and Detroit are vastly different opponents for each other after its last game. The Hornets and Pistons have bottom-eight offenses.

The Hornets just dealt high-scoring gunner Terry Rozier so their offense will be going through an adjustment. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford says he likes to stress defense. Well here's his chance. The Pistons may have helped get Bucks coach Adrian Griffin fired because Milwaukee permitted Detroit to average 131.5 points in two games vs the Bucks.

The Pistons should be fired-up having a chance at a rare home win. The Hornets are in letdown mode after stunning Minnesota.

Charlotte and Detroit played once this season back on Oct. 27 and there were just 210 points scored in the Pistons' 111-99 road victory.

It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country.

The Spiders are giving up only 57.8 points in regulation during their last eight games. They should be able to control pace being at home against George Washington, which has played slower since entering Atlantic 10 Conference play.

George Washington ranks 32nd in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Revolutionaries' strength on offense is 3-point accuracy, where they rank 17th. Richmond, though, is rated in the top 30 both in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spiders are the top defensive team in the Atlantic 10 and playing at home. So look for defense to carry the day.

Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco.

The Pilots played a very weak non-conference schedule and have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up an average of 80.2 points on the season and 97.3 points during their last three games.

Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.

BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.

The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.

Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over.

I'm expecting a lot of energy from both teams. Utah last played this past Saturday. New Orleans hasn't been in action since last Friday.

The Jazz are averaging 126.4 points in regulation during their last 11 games. If you discount a 126-97 road loss to the Celtics that average rises to 129.4 points. Utah is the 10th-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Pelicans have surrendered at least 123 points in three of their past five games.

New Orleans ranks 12th in scoring, ninth in field goal percentage and third in 3-point shooting percentage. The Jazz are below average defensively. The Pelicans are averaging 123.7 points in their last seven games.

Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS.

The Hawks carry a high fatigue rating here and won't have their superstar, Trae Young. He's out with a concussion. This marks the Hawks' fourth game in six days and seventh game in 11 days.

Sacramento has lost four in a row with three coming on the road. Look at those games, though. The Kings were blown out by the 76ers at Philadelphia. But in their last three games, they lost by one point in overtime at the Bucks, fell on the road to the Suns by two points and then lost at home to the Pacers by five points. That was last Thursday.

So the Kings have ample rest and motivation. This is a great spot for them.

When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total.

Weber State has the 18th best defense in the country. A big factor why the Wildcats are giving up just 63.8 points per game is they play at the 347th slowest tempo in the nation. 

Montana is giving up fewer than 70 points per game when at home. Weber State averages fewer than 70 points on the road.

Both teams are strong rebounding on the defensive side. So there should be few second-chance opportunities.

Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.

The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.

This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.

The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.

The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers.

After LA's impressive home wins and covers against the Thunder and Mavericks, two teams far better than Portland, the Lakers fell apart in an embarrassing, 130-112, home loss to the Nets this past Friday. 

The Lakers should be motivated to erase that frustration. They catch the Trail Blazers riding their first two-game win streak since late November. Portland nipped the Pacers and Nets at home by a combined five points. Those Portland victories are enough to catch the Lakers' attention. 

I understand the Lakers have been inconsistent all season. But Portland has the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 12-29. The Trail Blazers are last in scoring and in shooting percentage. So the bar is not high for the Lakers to get a needed blowout win.

Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. 

The Ducks are 4-4 in road/neutral site games. They looked dreadful against Colorado getting outrebounded by 12 and committing 13 turnovers. Now the Ducks have to go on to Utah where the Utes are 10-0 at home this season. 

Among the teams Utah has defeated at home are BYU, Washington State, Washington and UCLA, 90-44, 10 days ago. UCLA played at Oregon on Dec. 30 and lost by five points, 64-59. 

Utah buried Oregon State, 74-47, as a 15-point home favorite this past Thursday. The Utes did that without starting point guard Rollie Worster, who is questionable for this matchup with a leg injury. The Utes have another reliable point guard in Deivon Smith, whose statistics are similar to Worster's. So it's just a bonus if Worster is able to play. 

I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared.

The Hawks are in a letdown mode after upsetting Miami on the road, 109-108, last night when Dejounte Murray hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left.

Atlanta beat the Heat despite not having Trae Young, who ranks in the top-10 in scoring and is second in the league in assists. Young is questionable today due to illness.

The Hawks are the worst point spread team in the NBA at 11-30 (27 percent) ATS. Atlanta not only also is playing without rest, but for the fourth time in six days.

I'm looking for a strong bounce back game from Dallas after the Stars lost, 5-1, to the Flyers at home two days ago. That was the Stars' most lopsided defeat since Dec. 9.

Dallas is a strong road team - 12-5-2-1 - and the third-highest scoring team in the NHL.

New Jersey ranks 28th defensively. The Devils also carry a high fatigue rating. They beat the Blue Jackets, 4-1, in Columbus last night. So they are playing without rest and also for the fourth time in six days.

Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.

This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.

Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.

The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game. 

Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. 
Wagner is sidelined with an ankle injury. He's not expected to play here against the 76ers. Philadelphia ranks ninth defensively and first in 3-point defense. The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. So the Magic won't be earning many points from beyond the arc. 

Orlando is the sixth-best defensive team in the league. The Magic have lost four of their last five games. They just concluded a four-game road trip two days ago losing to the Hawks, 106-104. The Magic lost that game, but held the Hawks 15 points below their season average. The Magic have held each of their last four opponents well below their season average. 

The Magic aren't going to lack motivation here. It's their first home game in 10 days. They know they win by defense. Orlando also has revenge for a 112-92 home loss to the 76ers on Dec. 27. Joel Embiid sat out that game. 

Embiid is likely to play today, which is good and bad for the Under. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35.1 points a game. But he's also a tremendous rebounder and rim protector.

Florida is in second place in the Atlantic Division with 58 points. But the Panthers are in must-win mode having lost three in a row - two in overtime - and finishing a five-game homestand with this matchup.

Look for the Panthers to take their frustrations out on Minnesota, which is a patsy right now. Dealing with multiple injuries, the Wild has lost nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota played last night at Tampa Bay and fell to the Lightning, 7-3. The Wild are 1-5 when playing without rest.

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.

Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.

The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.

The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.

If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.

This is a mystifying line. Since when is a team that has lost nine of their last 10 games, carries a high fatigue rating and is in a terrible situational spot a mid-sized favorite against an above .500 quality opponent? 

I can't say never because of this line where the Kings are fairly strong favorites against Nashville. 

So I'll gladly take this plus price with the road underdog Predators. 

Los Angeles is 1-9 in its last 10 games. The Kings just completed a rough six-game, 10-day trip that concluded in Dallas where they got crushed, 5-1, by the Stars this past Tuesday night. 

That was a horrible spot for the Kings. This one isn't any better. It's LA's third game in four days - all at different arenas - and fourth game in six days. The Kings just returned home on Wednesday after being gone for the past 10 days. So their focus and concentration could be off given the traveling circumstances and reuniting with their families. 

Nashville has a winning road record. The Kings are just a .500 team at home. The Predators will be rested and ready having last played on Monday against the Golden Knights. That was a day game in nearby Las Vegas - just an hour flight from Los Angeles. 

The Predators lost to Las Vegas, but they had won their two previous games. This included an impressive, 6-3, upset road win against the Stars in Dallas this past Friday.

Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.

The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. 

Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd. 

Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th. 

So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. 

Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Tennessee-Martin is far better offensively than on defense. But the last four Skyhawks' games have gone Under. They do rank 91st in defensive field goal percentage.

The key is tempo - and it will be slow thanks to Morehead State. The Eagles will not get into a fast-paced game with the Skyhawks, especially at home.

There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.

Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.

Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.  

That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers. 

Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love. 

The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here.

The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.

Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.

The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.

The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.

I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.