I'm not a fan of Colby Lewis nor C.J. Wilson. Both have bad histories against their respective opponents here. It's also a golden spot for Albert Pujols to break out of his season-long slump and for Mike Trout to get hot again.
Lewis went 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in four starts against the Angels last season. Lewis is 35 and past his prime. Lewis has a 3.79 ERA - and that's with a high strand rate. Opponents are batting .282 against him in three starts. Pujols is 7-for-15 lifetime against Lewis with two homers while Trout has a six-game hitting streak against Texas going 10-for-19 during this span. Trout is batting .400 with two homers during his last 15 at-bats against Lewis.
Wilson hasn't fared well versus his old team. He's 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA versus Texas in eight starts. He faced Texas five times last season and posted a hideous 8.76 ERA.
The weather forecast calls for winds of 10-12 mph blowing out to right field.

Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. 
New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. 
The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2.
Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. 
Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. 
Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. 
It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest.
New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30. 

This total would make more sense if it were a regular season game. It's not, though. This is playoff basketball and it comes following an overtime game two nights ago.
There were a combined 199 points scored in Game 1. During regulation of Game 2 there were a combined 188 points scored.
Tony Parker has missed 13 of 17 shots from the field during the first two games and is extremely banged-up with a right Achilles injury along with being hampered by ankle and quad injuries.
If Parker doesn't play, the Spurs are likely to slow pace as they have no one to match up to Chris Paul. If Parker does play, he's likely to be limited and ineffective again.
The plus for the Spurs - on the defensive end - is big man Tiago Splitter getting healthier. He played more than 19 minutes in Game 2.  
Offense easily comes to mind when talking about these two teams because of all the star power.
But the Spurs ranked No. 3 in the league in fewest points allowed per game at 97. That number is lowered to 96.4 points per 100 possessions when Kawhi Leonard, the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, is on the court.
The Clippers improved their defense in Game 2. Leonard took home defensive player of the year honors, but DeAndre Jordan could be the best defensive big man in basketball.
Jordan also is brutal from the free throw line making less than 40 percent.
 

Two mediocre pitchers, two good offenses and a clear night at a hitter's park should spell over the total here.
Boston ranks sixth in runs scored per game while Baltimore is eighth. Both average nearly five runs per game.
Right-handers Rick Porcello and Miguel Gonzalez go at again after just facing each other five days ago. The Orioles won that game, 8-3, scoring eight runs on 12 hits in five-plus innings against Porcello. That raised Porcello's ERA to 6.63 after three starts this season.
Gonzalez gave up three runs and four walks in five innings this past Sunday versus Boston. He was lucky not to have surrendered more runs. Both bullpens have fatigue issues, too.  
The over has cashed 13 of the last 18 times the Red Sox have faced a right-handed starter, while the over is 9-1-2 in Baltimore's past 12 home games against a righty.

The Bucks improved by 26 games from last season after finishing with an NBA-worst 15-67 record two seasons ago. They are well-coached, have a good bench and are past their early playoff jitters. This is an effort-team with heart.
Now they are home for the first time in the series. This is the season for Milwaukee. The Bucks are shooting just 37.4 percent in the series. They have missed 25 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Chicago's defense is down a notch this season.
The Bucks have just missed covering during the first two games. I see the Bucks shooting better and playing their best game of the series. This is their game to win.
The Bucks have doubled teamed Pau Gasol and bottled up the Bulls inside. It has been Chicago's outside shooting and clutch 3-pointers - particularly by Jimmy Butler - that has kept the Bucks from covering. Butler is a fine player. But he's not a 28-point per game scorer.
The Bulls may be without Nikola Mirotic, who suffered a knee and quad injury during Game 2. That would weaken an already thin Chicago bench.

Boston doesn't have the height or any kind of defensive stopper to prevent LeBron James and Kyrie Irving from penetrating and either scoring inside or dishing off for open look jumpers. The Cavaliers have made 52 percent of their two-point shots in the series and that's with Kevin Love hitting only 8-of-22 from the floor. Love should pick up his scoring making Cleveland's offense even more deadly in this game.
The Celtics are going to come out hard here. Brad Stevens has definitely gotten the most out of his team. Boston's offense has been efficient and could be even better with the home crowd behind them for the first time in the series. The Celtics have a winning home record.
Stevens is astute enough to realize he can't stop Cleveland by slowing pace. So I see the Celtics speeding up their attack. This is the shortest point spread of the series. The oddsmaker is anticipating a fairly close game and so am I. That means there should be more scoring - if not fouling - during the final three minutes of the game.
Because of Cleveland's big leads in the first two games there were only 14 combined points scored during the last three minutes of the first two games of the series.  
It's a plus for Boston that streaky Isaiah Thomas is playing well, scoring 22 points in each of the first two games while dishing off for 17 assists. The Celtics need to ride Thomas, who is small and a weak defender.
Note, too, that Cleveland has gone over in 10 of its last 11 road games versus opponents with a winning home record.

This total opened too low in a pitching matchup of Roberto Hernandez versus J.A. Happ. These are bottom of the rotation starters who are lucky to be on big league rosters. Their ERA's look OK now so we have a fairly low total. But that window is going to close fast.
The Astros know Happ, who pitched for them three years ago, and have hammered nine homers in four road games this season.
The Mariners have a pair of hot hitters in Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano, both of whom have strong histories against the well-traveled Hernandez, who is pitching for his fifth team since 2012. Cruz has hit safely in nine of his last 10 games smashing eight homers and driving in 16 runs during this span. Cano is riding an eight-game hitting streak.
Cano is a lifetime .423 hitter against Hernandez in 26 career at bats, while Cruz has hit three homers off Hernandez in 18 lifetime at bats against him.

Arizona has been overachieving. The Diamondbacks are 7-7, but they are worse than a .500 team.
Arichie Bradley is a promising rookie, but I favor Texas starter Yovani Gallardo, especially in an underdog role.
Gallardo is 7-0 with a 1.89 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Diamondbacks. Chase Field is a hitter's park, but Gallardo is 5-0 there with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts.
Arizona has lost its past five home interleague games, while the Rangers have won five in a row versus NL foes.

Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2. 

The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter. 

Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum.  

This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon. 

Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals. 

Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1. 

The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies.

Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting.   

Don't be fooled by Nick Martinez's first two starts. His stats are misleading. He's not a strong prospect and only made Texas' starting rotation because of injuries. Martinez had a 4.55 ERA last year and his strikeout rate and groundball rate are down this season. He's been highly lucky to have stranded 14 runners this year. The Rangers carry a heavy bullpen fatigue rating, too. 

The Diamondbacks rank 10th in runs scored. Their offense is improved and the ballpark, Chase Field, is good for hitter's especially with the roof open, which it will be today. There's also a wind blowing out to right. 

I'm not a fan either of Arizona starter Chase Anderson. I don't trust him to hold Texas to less than four runs. The over is 8-2-1 in Anderson's last 11 starts. 

Let's start with the injuries where three key offensive stars could be out.
San Diego's Justin Upton is dealing with a sore quad. He left last night's game in the fourth inning because of the injury. The Rockies could be missing Nolan Arenado and Corey Dickerson. Arenado didn't play last night because of a left wrist injury sustained during batting practice while Dickerson departed in the third inning with plantar fasciitis after grounding out. Upton is off to a fast start while Arenado and Dickerson are Colorado's two top home run and RBI leaders.
Now let's go to the starting pitchers where a rejuvenated Brandon Morrow faces underrated Tyler Matzek.
The 30-year-old Morrow is making the switch to the National League, which usually is a plus for an American League pitcher. He missed four months last year with Toronto because of a hand injury. Now he's resurfaced in the National League and has looked very good in his first two starts with a 1.29 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 14 innings versus the Diamondbacks and Giants.
Morrow has experienced Coors Field - and conquered it with a 2.00 ERA in two starts. He's backed by one of the best bullpens in the majors. Morrow also catches the Rockies in a hitting slump. Colorado is averaging 2.2 runs in its last four games, batting .195 during this span. The Rockies haven't scored more than four runs a game during their last seven games.
San Diego is swinging hot bats scoring 14 runs on Monday while averaging 5.2 runs per game on the season. But the combination of that 14-3 Padres win on Monday and playing at Coors Field makes this a double-digit total. Those factors don't overcome the underrated pitching matchup and quality of the closers, both of whom are rested.
Matzek is under-the-radar with a 1.80 ERA through two starts. An improved changeup and more confidence have made Matzek a better pitcher. Matzek faced San Diego at Coors last Sept. 5 and held the Padres to three hits in a 3-0 victory. The under has cashed seven of the past eight times Matzek has started. He's backed by a rested Adam Ottavino, who has upgraded Colorado at closer with a 0.00 ERA through 7 1/3 innings, a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and two saves.
The weather forecast is for a slight wind, which will be blowing in. The scheduled home plate umpire is Chad Fairchild. The under has cashed 54 percent of the time when Fairchild has been behind the dish during the past five years.

You would think each of these teams could reach 96 points. I do.
The Wizards averaged 98.5 points per game entering the postseason. Only five teams finished the regular season with a higher shooting percentage from the field than Washington.
Toronto was the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 104 points.
Yet in Game 1 the Wizards and Raptors combined for just 164 points in regulation and 179 for the game. So now the oddsmaker has reduced this Game 2 total down around three points from the opening game over/under figure.
I don't believe the adjustment is justified. There aren't going to be first-game jitters like in Game 1. Toronto is going to be better prepared with two full days to prepare.
The Raptors are well-coached. They won't be blindsided by the Wizards' rotation moves that seemed to catch them off guard.
Most of all the shooting is going to pick up. Washington's offensive strength is its backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. They combined to shoot 11 of 41 (26.8 percent) from the floor. This was just an off-shooting game by both of them. Toronto ranked 26th in defensive field goal percentage - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference.
Toronto's top offensive players - DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams - shot even worse. They were a combined 12 for 46 (26 percent) from the field. This is what Lowry said following the game, "... But that's Game 1, you learn from the mistakes and you get better." Lowry also talked about playing at a faster pace and getting out in transition more.  
These guys are all proven offensive stars. Washington and Toronto aren't great defensive teams. I understand playoff basketball is much different than regular season. Defense and half-court styles are emphasized more especially in the Eastern Conference. But this total still is too much of an overreaction to Game 1's low score. It's way too much of a fluke for Wall, Beal, DeRozan, Lowry and Williams to all shoot so poorly again.

.

Hisashi Iwakuma isn't pitching well enough to have a total this low and Houston rookie Asher Wojciechowski hasn't proven worthy yet of having an over/under this low.
Wojciechowski is in Houston's starting rotation only because Brad Peacock had to go on the disabled list. This is Wojciechowski's second big league start. He gave up four runs on eight hits, including two homers, in four-plus inning in a 5-1 loss to the Indians on April 9. The Indians rank 25th in runs scored. That was the second-most runs they've scored all season.
Wojciechowski is going to have to deal with a red-hot Nelson Cruz, who is batting .485 during his last eight games with 14 RBI's and leading the majors in homers with eight. Cruz has hammed Houston pitching for six homers and 14 RBI's in his last 12 games versus the Astros.
Iwakuma isn't in good form. He's allowed nine runs, including three homers, 15 hits and three walks in 11 innings this season facing the Angels and Dodgers. Iwakuma also doesn't have a good history against Houston. He was 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA versus the Astros last season in five starts.
The over is 8-2-1 during Iwakuma's past 11 starts.

The Bulls beat the Bucks, 103-91, in Game 1 of the series for a combined 194 points. There were 59 points scored during the first quarter. After that the teams settled down to average 45 points a quarter during the final three quarters. If the scoring pace for the last three periods of Game 1 follows form the combined total would be 180.
Of course the key question is will it? I believe it will.
Jason Kidd and Tom Thibodeau are defensive-minded coaches. These long-time division rivals know each other well. The under had cashed four straight times in this series until the Game 1 matchup.
The intensity level - already high - is going to be raised a level. Kidd was not happy about how that first quarter played out even though Milwaukee trailed just 30-29 following it. He said the pace was too fast and set a bad tone for his team.
The Bucks are not a big scoring team. They prefer a methodical pace. Their backcourt scoring is especially vulnerable after making the change from Brandon Knight to Michael Carter-Williams, a very low percentage shooter. He missed nine of 13 shots from the field in Game 1 bothered by Derrick Rose, an excellent defender.
Milwaukee held Pau Gasol to his lowest-scoring game since March 1. The Bucks double-teamed Gasol, who shot just 5-of-17 from the floor scoring 10 points. However, Rose played much better than expected in his first playoff game since tearing his ACL in a 2012 playoff game.  
Rose scored 23 points while making three of seven shots from 3-point range. However, he shot only two free throws. I don't see Rose shooting as well in this Game 2 especially since 44 percent of his field goal attempts in Game 1 were launched from 3-point range. The Bucks are going to continue to double Gasol forcing Rose to spend a lot of time dribbling and then launching long, low-percentage shots.

 
 

The Bucks are going to come hard at the Bulls here. The intensity level has risen. Points should be hard to come by.
As expected the young Bucks had first game playoff jitters - and it showed. They won't have that problem in Game 2. Their nerves have settled down.
Derrick Rose scored 23 points and had seven assists in his first playoff game in three years. Rose still has some rust. I don't expect him to shoot as well as he did in Game 1. The Bucks had the right strategy double-teaming Pau Gasol. He had his lowest-scoring game in six weeks missing 12 of 17 shots from the field.
The Bucks lost by 12 points in Game 1, but took six more shots than the Bulls. Milwaukee, though, shot only 39.3 percent from the floor and 69.3 percent from the foul line. Chicago shot 45.8 percent from the floor. The Bucks were the seventh-best shooting team from the field during the regular season averaging 45.9 percent while making 75.7 percent of their free throws.
The Bulls have failed to cover 17 of the past 25 times following a point spread cover.



 
 

This is an extremely short price to get the Tigers, who not only have home field but are better offensively and defensively than New York and have a bullpen far less taxed than the Yankees.

The oddsmakers are overratting CC Sabathia, who is past his prime and still may not be 100 percent. The Yankees are 4-9 in his last 13 road starts.
On the flip side, Alfredo Simon isn't getting enough respect. He's 17-10 with a 3.35 ERA during the past two years. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but he has a strong defense behind him. 
Simon is at his best during April, too, with a 6-1 mark and 1.75 ERA during the past two Aprils.

The last time these teams met was at Staples Center on Feb. 19. The Clippers won, 119-115, for a combined 234 points. DeAndre Jordan missed 18 free throws in 28 attempts during that game.
The Spurs are likely to send Jordan to the foul line a lot, too, in this matchup, which means frequent clock stoppages.
The Clippers are the No. 2 offensive team in the league averaging nearly 107 points per game. They rank second in field goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage. The Spurs rank in the bottom eight in 3-point defense.
San Antonio averages more than 103 points per game, while ranking third in field goal percentage and sixth in 3-point shooting.
The Spurs have come on strong averaging 109.7 points in their last seven games. Tony Parker could be in line for a big game having had ample rest.
The Clippers finally have gotten fully healthy. They are averaging 112 points during their last 13 games if you discount their 94-86 victory against the Grizzlies, the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA.
A point guard matchup of Parker versus Chris Paul should ensure a fast, up-tempo game.

Cleveland closed 33-9 and in my view is the best team in the Eastern Conference. Nothing less than a championship is the Cavaliers' goal. So Cleveland doesn't want to mess around with Boston.
The Celtics have yet to take the Cavaliers' best punch beating them twice during their last four games when Cleveland didn't play its best players. But now the Celtics are going to get their full lethal dose of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Cleveland is not going to lack motivation here.
Brad Stevens is turning out to be a fine coaching hire. The Celtics are kind of like a poor man's version of the Hawks with big men who pass and spread the floor bolstered with a good bench play and chemistry.
However, the Celtics lack playoff experience. This is just their second nationally televised game of the season. The Celtics also have nowhere close to the Cavaliers' talent. Stevens has the Celtics ahead of schedule making the playoffs in just his second year at the helm. There is much rebuilding left to do, though, in Boston. The Celtics are not ready to make this big of a jump - stay close to an elite opponent in a road playoff game - yet. That may come next year. Not this season. 

Look for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to take advantage of Boston's lack of size by aggressively driving to the hoop. Nobody goes to the hoop stronger than James - and the Celtics lack the interior defense to stop him. Cleveland basically scored at will versus Boston when James played against them this season.
The Cavaliers also have the outside shooters to knock down jumpers if James faces double-teams and kicks the ball out.
Isaiah Thomas is averaging 19.3 points this month, but he isn't a good defender. Neither are a number of other Celtics, who will need to be in the lineup in order for Boston to try to keep up with Cleveland's offense.
The Celtics should play loose with nothing to lose. They employ an up-tempo style, especially with Thomas, and that pace certainly will not be abandoned when the Celtics start falling behind against a vastly superior opponent.
This is just the Celtics' second game on national television this season so they will likely be looking to keep running and trying to score right away if the game gets out of hand during garbage time.

I'm not sold on the Indians as a road favorite in this spot. Cleveland is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games and is minus injured catcher Yan Gomes.
Minnesota has regained some of its confidence at home winning three of its last four.
The pitching matchup is TJ House versus Trevor May. House finished last year strong, but was horrid in his first start this season giving up six runs on six hits and three walks in 1 1/3 innings against the Tigers at home.
May has tremendous motivation in trying to land a regular spot in the Twins' starting rotation. He has been a disappointment up to this point and posted bad numbers in his first start this season, giving up five runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings during a 12-3 home loss to the Royals this past Monday.
The Royals were hot then. The Indians aren't. May also didn't pitch as bad as his numbers show.

Much is being made of Derrick Rose's sore knee, but the Bulls don't need Rose to be on his "A" game to cover this number against the Bucks.
Milwaukee is thrilled to be in the playoffs after finishing with the worst record last season. Many of the key Bucks players lack the necessary playoff experience. Being on the road in Game 1 is a huge negative.
The Bulls are a tough matchup for Milwaukee having covered five of the past six.
The Bulls have been hiding in the weeds overshadowed for much of the year by the Hawks and now the surging Cavaliers. They are underrated at this point.

Hard-throwing Danny Salazar is back up for the Indians and indications are he now has the maturity and command to hold a secure spot in Cleveland's starting rotation.
Salazar has a lot of potential, but has been up and down. He was good, though, versus Minnesota last year going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts. He's facing one of the weakest offenses in baseball.
The Twins are averaging only three runs per game while batting .216. They rank last in OPS.
The Indians haven't been swinging the bats much better. They are averaging only 3.2 runs per contest with a .221 batting average. Cleveland's offense is in terrible current form averaging 2.3 runs in its last three games stranding 17 of 20 runners in scoring position during this span.
The Twins are pitching their ace, Phil Hughes. He has an excellent track record against the Indians with a 4-1 lifetime mark and 2.80 ERA. Hughes also is pitching on an extra day of rest. The under is 10-2-1 the past 13 times Hughes has started on five days rest.
Scheduled home plate umpire Tripp Gibson is starting his second year in the majors. The under has cashed in 22 of his 37 plate appearances for 59 percent, including 2-0 this season. The weather should cooperate, too, as the forecast calls for just slight winds, which will be blowing in.

I envision Joe Kelly, still getting acclimated to the American League, having problems against Baltimore's strong offense. Adam Jones is on a roll with four homers and nine RBIs during the past six games.
Boston has dropped 20 of its last 26 games at home versus opponents with a winning record. The Orioles have won their last five games at Fenway Park.
Ubaldo Jimenez has made some adjustments and is showing signs of having a strong comeback season. He beat the Blue Jays this past Saturday allowing one hit and no runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings.
The Orioles have won in seven of Jimenez's last eight starts.

The due factor is due to hit the Mets here. The Mets have been overachieving and face the Marlins today with heavy bullpen fatigue and minus David Wright.
Bartolo Colon hasn't opened a season 3-0 since 2008. Christian Yelich is back in Miami's lineup and Giancarlo Stanton is heating up.
The Marlins are going with spot starter David Phelps, a veteran journeyman type backed by an underrated Miami bullpen with rested closer Steve Cishek.

There is some nice value for taking the Braves and Julio Teheran against Drew Hutchinson and the Blue Jays.
Teheran is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts this season after beating the Marlins and Mets. Atlanta has won its last five road games and was idle on Thursday while the Blue Jays lost to Tampa Bay.
Facing Toronto is a step up, but the Blue Jays' offense has been inconsistent. Edwin Encarnacion is batting .184. Jose Bautista is hitting .152 and Jose Reyes is out with a soreness in his left side.
Hutchinson also has been inconsistent. I consider him more lucky than good.

Cole Hamels and Doug Fister are good pitchers, but this total is just plain too low considering the circumstances and bullpens.
The Nationals are healthier with Jayson Werth back in the lineup and are out of their early-season hitting slump scoring 17 runs and banging out 22 hits during their past two games. They just blasted a left-hander, Wade Miley, on Wednesday. Now they get their second straight southpaw in Hamels.
The Phillies are well acquainted with Fister, having just faced him on Saturday. The Nationals are weak defensively and missing key components of their bullpen.
Philadelphia has proven vulnerable with its setup men and closer Jonathan Papelbon's fastball isn't what it used to be.
Another plus is the wind blowing out 10-12 mph.

The Royals are 7-0. The Twins are 1-6 and a dreadful 1-6 at that. The price remains low enough to keep fading Minnesota while backing the unbeaten Royals.
These records aren't in the slight bit misleading. The Twins are averaging 2.2 runs per game. Kansas City is averaging better than seven runs per game while giving up an average of just 2.5 runs per contest.
Kansas City Edinson Volquez is pitching well. He has a 1.13 ERA going back to his last two starts of 2014 and his first start this season. The Twins haven't seen him since 2007. Twins starter Kyle Gibson had a 4.47 ERA last year is coming off a terrible first-game performance this season against Detroit.
Minnesota is 2-7 in Gibson's last nine starts and 1-8 the past nine times Gibson has pitched against an above .500 opponent.

Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks.
The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game.
New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher.
Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia.
That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased.
The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27.
Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday.
The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.

On the surface this game is meaningless as both Boston and Milwaukee have clinched playoff berths.
The spot, though, greatly favors the Bucks. Milwaukee has won three in a row and is motivated to finish with its first winning record in five years. Boston has a five-game winning streak, but will be resting starters. Out for sure is guard Avery Bradley, who left last night's game against Toronto with a left leg injury.  
"We'll play some guys a lot less," Boston coach Brad Stevens was quoted as saying after the Celtics nipped the Raptors, 95-93, at home Tuesday night on a last-second fall-away jumper by Jae Crowder. "I assume we'll go deep into our bench (Wednesday) night."
Bucks coach Jason Kidd hasn't tipped his hand how long he'll play his starters, but finishing with a winning record is important for the Bucks. Milwaukee also has one of the stronger benches in the league.
The Celtics have been winning, but a closer examination of their five-game winning streak is in order. Boston beat the Cavaliers twice when Cleveland was sitting out key players. The Celtics also defeated the lottery-bound Pistons and edged the Raptors twice with each game decided at the buzzer. Toronto was without key players in those losses to Boston,  missing DeMar DeRozan last night and Kyle Lowery when it fell by one point in overtime.
The Bucks are 2-0 versus the Celtics this season. They defeated them, 110-101, in Boston on April 3 when the Celtics played well.  Boston isn't likely to come close to bringing it's "A" game in this matchup.

A pitching matchup of rookie Drew Rucinski, a converted reliever making his first start, versus Nick Martinez should provide double-digit runs.
If you discount a one-run performance against Collin McHugh, the Rangers are averaging 5.7 runs during their last four games. Prince Fielder appears healthy batting .394.
The Angels' offense finally showed life scoring six runs and banging out 12 hits in yesterday's 6-3 victory against the Rangers. The Angels have averaged 6.8 runs during their last 11 games in Arlington, while batting .302.
Martinez pitched well in his season debut against the A's, but I'm far from sold on him. He is 0-2 lifetime versus the Angels with a 3.79 ERA. He was 5-12 last season with a 4.55 ERA.
The Angels will be highly motivated to go after him after Martinez plunked Mike Trout twice the last time he faced the Angels last Sept. 11.
The weather forecast is for a slight wind to blow in, but Arlington is a hitter's park and Lance Barrett is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 60 percent of the time Barrett has been behind the dish since the start of last season.

First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost.

Here is my analysis on the game:

Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls.
The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season.
Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble.
Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.

This is bad on bad, but the Lakers are worse than the Kings and really don't want to win due to lottery positioning.

The Kings are minus Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins, but the Lakers also are depleted and now are minus injured Wesley Johnson.

Sacramento concludes its season at the Lakers on Wednesday. There is no way George Karl, who is trying to make the Kings respectable, wants to go into the off-season having concluded the season with back-to-back losses to the Lakers. This is Sacramento's game to win.

Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season.
Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games.
Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest.
The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February.
Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games.
This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going.

The Royals are 6-0 and the Twins are 1-5, and that's a bad 1-5, too.

Minnesota has been outscored by 20 runs despite having one more inning of at bats in all six of its games. This is the Twins' home opener. 

The Twins don't have the offense nor the pitching to stay with the Royals in this matchup. The Twins have scored in only eight of 54 innings this season while batting under .200 and now they face Danny Duffy. 

Duffy had the fifth-best ERA in the American League last year at 2.53. He was 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA in six starts versus the Twins last season. Duffy holds a huge edge on Trevor May, who has yet to come close to matching his high promise. May has struggled at Target Field giving up 18 runs and 32 hits in his last 19 2/3 innings. May isn't help by a terrible defense either. 

Kansas City ranks No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. 

Jordan Zimmerman is far superior to Rick Porcello. The Red Sox are traveling after playing on Sunday night and have lost 21 of their last 29 home games.
Zimmerman is one of the best pitchers in baseball, yet still gets overshadowed by teammates Stephen Strasburg and now Max Scherzer.
Zimmerman has been tough in Interleague play with a 2.61 ERA in 19 career starts versus American League clubs. The Nationals are 5-0 during his past five road outings.
The right-handed Porcello has a 6.41 ERA in four career starts at Fenway Park. Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road contests when facing a right-handed starter.
The Nationals are getting healthier as Jayson Werth is expected to play today either in the outfielder or at DH. He's been out up to this juncture resting his surgically repaired right shoulder. His presence in the batting order makes everyone else better.

This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team.
Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat.
The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries.
Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies.
Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
 

Sacramento has key injuries. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - the Kings' two best players by far - are both out.
Denver, though, is 65-96 the past two seasons, including 29-50 this season. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six. They should not be double-digit favorites against any team.
This is going to be an emotional game for Kings coach George Karl, who coached the Nuggets for eight plus years and was let go in controversial fashion. This is the first time he's coaching against his former team. I believe he'll have his team ready and the Kings will play hard and with motivation, something they don't always do on the road.  
Sacramento has won during its last two visits to Denver. The last being this past November.
The Nuggets still could be winded from playing an emotional double overtime game this past Friday night against Dallas in which there were 287 points scored. All but one of Denver's starters logged between 45-52 minutes in that wild game.

Both teams are out of the gates slow at 1-4. The Pirates may be without their best player, Andrew McCutchen, for a second straight game. He's dealing with soreness in his left knee.
Pittsburgh has a horrible history playing in Milwaukee losing 53 of the past 68 times.
The pitching matchup is Casey Sadler making his first major-league career start against Kyle Lohse, the Brewers' No. 1 starter and 15-year veteran. Lohse is looking to bounce back from a horrendous Opening Day start. I see that happening. Milwaukee is 17-8 in Lohse's last 25 starts at Miller Park. Lohse is 11-3 against the Pirates in 22 starts.
Sadler is a converted reliever who the Brewers saw in last June when they scored two runs off him in two innings.
The price is low enough to get behind the Brewers here.

All trends point to an under here and so does the situation.
The under has cashed 17 of the past 22 times in this series. Minnesota has gone under seven of the past nine times when playing a foe with a winning record, while the Warriors are 16-5-1 under the past 22 times facing a below .500 opponent.
Golden State ranks first in defensive field goal percentage and is No. 3 in defending 3-pointers. The prideful Warriors didn't like surrendering 105 points to Portland in their last game.
Leandro Barbosa won't play for Golden State and the Warriors probably will limit Stephen Curry's minutes as there is nothing at stake in this matchup and it's likely to be a blowout.
The Timberwolves could be missing Kevin Martin. Minnesota has been held to less than 100 points in six of its last seven games.

I see the Dodgers rebounding in a big way after losing to Arizona last night. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he's opposed by Archie Bradley, who is making his first big league start.
Kershaw has given up just one earned run in his last two starts versus the Diamondbacks spanning 15 innings. The Diamondbacks ' offense is heavily reliant on superstar Paul Goldschmidt and he's batting .206 lifetime against Kershaw in 29 at bats. Arizona has lost in six of its last seven games versus southpaws.
Bradley has to not only prove he's big-league ready, but also that's he over a right flexor strain that bothered him last year when he went 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 18 minor league starts.

This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span.
That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago.
The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them.
Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking.
The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.
The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams.

This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here.
Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday.
The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month.
Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can.
The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes.
I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.

It's official now. The Suns aren't making the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season.
It looked like the Suns were going to end this dry spell when they won 28 of their first 48 games. But Phoenix management tinkered with their roster making three deals that so far haven't worked out. The result is an 11-20 mark in their last 31 games.
The Suns have injuries with Brandon Knight and Alex Len out. Eric Bledsoe, their key player, isn't producing. Morale is bad. So is the defense, which ranks 26th, and the Suns can't always be counted on to play hard. They have lost three games by 27 points this season.
New Orleans, on the other hand, is extremely motivated. The Pelicans are off their worst loss of the season, losing 110-74 to the Grizzlies this past Wednesday. They are tied with the Thunder for the final playoff spot in the West, but the Thunder has the easier schedule. The Pelicans still have to play the Rockets and Spurs. They certainly can't afford to slip up here at home against a demoralized Suns squad.  
If you discount road games against the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, the Pelicans are averaging 105.8 points per game during their last five games. Anthony Davis should prove unstoppable against a small Phoenix lineup minus Len. Phoenix has surrendered at least 107 points in four of its last six games.

I'm high on Nathan Eovaldi. He's a hard-thrower with a lot of potential that could come out with the right pitching coach. I believe he's found that with the Yankees.
Eovaldi gets strikeouts, but doesn't give up many homers. That's a rare combination. He was sharp during spring training with a 1.93 ERA in five outings. Most of the Red Sox batters have never faced Eovaldi.
The Red Sox are pitching southpaw Wade Miley, whose ERA has gone up each of the last two seasons following his 2012 All-Star season. Miley finished last year going 1-5 with a 4.85 ERA in his last 10 appearances for Arizona.
The Yankees won nearly 55 percent of their games against lefties last year, including going 8-3 the last 11 times versus southpaws.  

Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest.
But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup.
Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game.
The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up.
Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now.
The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.
The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami.
The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
 

Minnesota has a cluster injury problem. The plus to that, though, is the Timberwolves have motivated youngsters playing for their futures with fresh legs. They also have probable Rookie-of-the-Year Andrew Wiggins, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games, and veteran sharpshooter Kevin Martin, who scored 37 points last night.
The Trail Blazers are enduring a crazy traveling scheduling brought on by a make-up game at Brooklyn this past Monday. The Trail Blazers had to make the long trip to the East Coast and immediately fly back to the West Coast. They have a far more crucial game on deck Thursday night against the Warriors in Golden State. This marks their fourth game in six days.
 I expect the Trail Blazers to have all hands on deck except of course for injured Wesley Matthews. But Portland has a weak bench and no reason to have their starters log major minutes.
The Timberwolves are the worst defensive team in the NBA although their porous defense may improve as their inexperienced players keep learning to play together. Portland, however, hasn't been great defensively either ranking 20th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.
It's hard to believe, but the Timberwolves held the Trail Blazers to their lowest-scoring game of the season in a 90-82 victory. Minnesota has defeated Portland in two of its three meetings this season. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Timberwolves at home six consecutive. The winning margin in those games is 12 points, much lower than this point spread.

This is a big game for both teams, but the situation is ripe for Memphis.
The Grizzlies have been idle since Saturday. They've had all this time to reflect on a bad 92-83 home loss to the Wizards in their last game. The Grizzlies have been preparing hard for this matchup. They consider it a playoff game. Memphis has some banged-up players, but the extra time off between games should help.  
New Orleans is in a dogfight with Oklahoma City for the last Western Conference playoff spot. Right now the Pelicans are there at the No. 8 and final seed after an emotional 103-100 victory against the Warriors last night. The Pelicans' best players are fragile. Memphis could be the most physical team in the NBA.
It's the fourth game in six days for New Orleans and second in two nights. The Pelicans have played without rest twice since March 20 and lost by 16 points to the Warriors and by nine to the Trail Blazers in those games, both of which were on the road. The last time the Pelicans played at Memphis was back in November when they lost 93-81. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the last seven times it has played a foe with a winning record.
The Grizzlies are in their own battle for playoff seeding. Following this game, the Grizzlies embark on a three-game road swing playing the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors. That's not going to be easy so they desperately need to win this home game.

The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here.
The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points.  
Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes.
Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday.
 

Zach Greinke has had great success versus the Padres. But Greinke dealt with some elbow issues during the off-season and will be facing nearly an entirely new Padres lineup. One of San Diego's new players is Justin Upton, who has a career .500 batting average and .611 on-base percentage versus Greinke.
Padres starter Tyson Ross is an All-Star. He made six starts against the Dodgers last year and compiled a 2.45 ERA.
The Padres hold a strong bullpen edge - both set-up-wise and closer-wise with Craig Kimbrel.
 

These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is.
The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up.
The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time.
The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday."
The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog.
Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots.
One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him.
Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers.
Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too.

This is a short price to not only get the superior team in the Indians, but also Corey Kluber.
Kluber is coming off a Cy Young award-winning season where he went 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA. He placed in the top three in ERA, strikeouts, innings, shutouts and complete games. I rate him as the second-best pitcher in the American League next to Felix Hernandez.
The Indians have won 76 percent of Kluber's starts the past 33 times they've been favored.
The Astros are improved, but they are not in the class of the Indians. Houston's offense is largely one-dimensional with a lot of free-swinging power hitters. Kluber didn't allow a homer during his last five starts.
Cleveland has dominated Houston winning 11 of the past 13 meetings.

Both teams have improved their offenses, especially the White Sox. Chicago has added Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera plus Adam Eaton is healthy.
The pitching matchup is Jeff Samardzija versus Yordano Ventura. The White Sox remain vulnerable in the bullpen while Ventura had a 4.76 ERA in three starts versus the White Sox last season with all three games going over the total.
The weather forecast calls for a 25 percent chance of rain with the wind blowing out at 10-15 mph.

First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center.
The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range.
The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game.
The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday.
The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.

A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic.
But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor.
Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent.
Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range.
The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. 

All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins.
But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here.
The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did.
Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits.
This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead.
Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.

The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form.
Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span.
Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks.
Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there.
The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points.  

I want the Pac-12 team going for me here at this short point spread range against Old Dominion of Conference USA. The Monarchs joined Conference USA just two years ago making the jump from the Colonial Athletic Association.
This was a strong year in the Pac 12. Stanford has faced stiffer competition and has the much superior offense.
Old Dominion averages nearly eight points fewer per game than Stanford. The Monarchs do not shoot well from the floor nor foul line. Their best player by far is point guard Trey Freeman, who is dealing with a sore ankle and likely won't be 100 percent.
The Monarchs have played their last three games at home inside their small, compact gym. Now they have to make the adjustment to spacious and intimidating Madison Square Garden. Stanford is more experienced with higher profile games. The Cardinal should be able to handle the pressure better than the Monarchs mentally and physically.
Stanford led the Pac-12 in fewest turnovers per game at 10.7. If Old Dominion can't be disruptive defensively the Monarchs are in deep trouble because they have no offense to fall back on.
Old Dominion has been living on borrowed time winning its last two NIT games by a combined four points, including nipping Murray State at the buzzer on a 30-foot 3-pointer. Now the Monarchs step up in class. Expect their luck to run out.

 

This is too high of a total with Old Dominion involved even with the new shot clock rule in place. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace and are very strong defensively. Only seven teams in the country gave up fewer points per game than Old Dominion, which has held foes to 56.8 points a game.  
Only Murray State, which ranked eighth in the nation in scoring, has been able to break the 60-point barrier against Old Dominion during the Monarchs' last nine games. The Racers scored 69 against Old Dominion in the quarterfinals of the NIT, which was 10 points below their season average.
Stanford averages less than 69 points a game when playing on a neutral floor. The Cardinal aren't going to get as many touches as they normally do because of Old Dominion's slow-down style, which can frustrate opponents.
Stanford isn't as strong defensively as Old Dominion. But that's offset by the Monarchs' weak offense that averages 65.1 points per contest. That averages shrinks to 57.5 on neutral courts. Old Dominion is neither a good shooting team from the field nor free throw line.
Point guard Trey Freeman is Old Dominion's best player and key. He scored 25 points against Murray State despite playing on a tender ankle that he recently sprained in practice. This is what Freeman said after the Monarchs edged Murray State this past Wednesday. "My foot hurt after the game. It was swollen up and everything was tight." So there is no guarantee Freeman will be 100 percent.
Since this is a semifinal matchup of the NIT the game is being held at Madison Square Garden. This is a large venue that can be very distracting for shooting especially for teams not having experienced it before. Both teams also are going to feel the pressure of performing in the Big Apple.
Stanford has to come cross-country while the Monarchs have played their last three games at their small gym. Neither team is going to be helped offensively by playing at this venue.

Frank Vogel is one of the more underrated coaches in the NBA. The Pacers have always been strong defensively under Vogel. They rank fifth this season in giving up the fewest points per game and are fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
But when these teams met just 10 days ago at Indianapolis the Nets won, 123-111, by making 61.3 percent of their shots from the floor. That was the highest percentage the Pacers have ever allowed at home during their history, which goes back to their crazy American Basketball Association days.
Vogel has stressed nothing but defense since the Pacers last played two days ago. This should be an intense matchup anyways with the final playoff spot in the East on the line along with a tiebreaker between the teams.
These are two defensive clubs whose offenses have been overachieving lately. I see a correction happening in this matchup.
The Nets have scored 107 and 106 points, respectively, during their last two games going against the Lakers and Cavaliers. The Lakers rank third-from-last in defense. The Nets ambushed the Cavaliers, who were at the end of a three-game road trip and had just beat physical Memphis by 22 points.  
During their previous two games, though, the Nets put up 91 points each against the Hornets and Celtics, two Eastern Conference clubs similar to the Pacers fighting for a playoff spot. That's more indicative of Brooklyn's offense. The Nets rank 23rd offensively, are a below average free throw shooting team and rank 28th in 3-point percentage.
The Pacers have broken triple digits in their last five games. I don't see that continuing. They rank 24th offensively. Prior to their triple digit streak, they had failed to reach 99 points in nine of their last 12 games.
Indiana could catch a break, too, and not face Deron Williams. He's ill and missed Monday's practice.

Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are allowing an average of 98 points in regulation during their last five games.
The Timberwolves are much better offensively than defensively. They rank in the top 10 in free throw percentage.  Minnesota is averaging 106 points per game in its last four games at Target Center.
The Timberwolves' offense could get a boost if Ricky Rubio can play after missing the past six games.
Utah's front line could get a boost if Derrick Favors is able to play after missing last game with back spasms. No team gives up more points in the paint than Minnesota.
The Timberwolves also rank last in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. They are fourth from last in 3-point defensive field goal percentage so Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke should be in line for big games. Minnesota has permitted triple digits in 14 of its last 16 games.
This is the fourth meeting between these two teams. Each of the previous three went above this total.

These teams are more about defense than offense. Both are digging hard to make the playoffs so I'm expecting an intense matchup with a lot of defensive emphasis.
The line is higher than it should be because of the oddsmaker factoring in the Hornets' 115-100 win against the Hawks two days ago. The Hawks, though, rested their starters and both teams shot uncommonly well. So that result is highly misleading.
The Hornets are not strong from the perimeter. That hasn't been cured with the return of Kemba Walker, who has made just 32.6 percent of his shots from the field since coming back 10 games ago following knee surgery.
The under has cashed in five of Boston's last six road games. The last five played in Charlotte during this series have gone under as well.

This is the Suns' season if they want to make the playoffs. Oklahoma City won't have the desperation Phoenix does with a 2 1/2-game lead on the Pelicans and three-game lead on the Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.
The Thunder have multiple injuries with Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison all out. They don't defend nearly as well minus Ibaka and are 1-7 in their last eight road contests, including losing the past four. The only road win they have during this span was against the hapless Lakers.
Oklahoma City also has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times when on the road against a foe with a winning home mark.
Russell Westbrook is putting up insane numbers - but at the expense of his teammates. Unlike other superstars such as LeBron James, Westbrook doesn't make his supporting cast better.
The Suns play on the road at Portland and Golden State in their next two games following this one. They are going to be underdogs in those contests making this a must-win spot. The Suns have beaten the Thunder the past three times at home.
It would be an added plus if the Suns get back Brandon Knight.

First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game.
My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points.
Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio.
The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line.
Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated.  
The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.

Open the season with 17 straight losses and you're marked as a terrible team. That's the case with Philadelphia.
The 76ers rank as among the worst teams in the NBA. But they are better than perceived, have under-the-radar talent and lately have been proving to be a money-maker covering eight of their last 13 games. They also are 4-0 ATS the last four times taking 15 or more points.
Philly is a respectable 5-6 straight-up in its last 11 games. Now I realize those victories came against the Hawks, who were resting three starters, and versus four other opponents with a combined winning percentage of less than .400.
But do realize, too, the 76ers are much improved. Nerlens Noel is making a late challenge for rookie of the year honors. He's averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game during his last five games. Another rookie, Jerami Grant, has been displaying  potential lately and Robert Covington can be a capable scorer.
The 76ers, unlike many veteran teams, have fresh legs at this late stage of the season because of their extreme youth. Before getting blown out by the Clippers at home, 119-98, on Friday night the 76ers had held their previous five foes to an average of 91.4 points per game.
Talking perception again. The 76ers aren't perceived as being a prideful team - just a rebuilding lottery squad. Yet they are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times following a double-digit defeat. I see them playing hard here following that bad home loss. They want to do their best against LeBron James.
This is an awkward scheduling spot for the Cavaliers. This is their first game back from a three-game road trip. Cleveland's next game isn't until Thursday. So focus could be a problem for the Cavaliers.
Yes, the Cavaliers can beat the 76ers just by showing up with their huge talent edge. But covering this big of a spread is a different matter. The 76ers haven't been this big of underdogs in nearly two months. They are a different team since then.

The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.

Golden State is averaging 112.6 points per game in its last six games and now Klay Thompson has regained his shooting touch.
The over has cashed in seven of the Warriors' last nine games.
The Bucks just faced four defensive-minded Eastern Conference teams - the Pacers, Heat, Cavaliers and Nets. Now they go up-tempo against a Western Conference club. The last time the Bucks played an elite Western Conference team they lost 114-103 to San Antonio at home five games ago.

Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are giving up 101.3 points per game during their last three games.

The Nuggets can be unpredictable on offense, but they are committed now to playing at a faster tempo. Defensively, the Nuggets rank 27th giving up an average of 103.8 points per game.

Gordon Hayward was healthy during the shoot around and is expected to play for the Jazz, which is a huge boost to their offense.

I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas.
The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes.
The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points.
Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points.
The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.   

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

Detroit has scored at least 105 points in four of its last five games. This scoring burst has coincided with Greg Monroe being out. Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond have all been thriving offensively since Monroe went out.

Orlando's defense has gone back downhill. Orlando is giving up an average of 109.6 points during its last six games. The Magic's offense received a boost, though, with Tobias Harris back. 

The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last seven home games.

Both teams were playing better defense when they met two weeks ago in Indiana. The Pacers won that meeting, 109-103, in overtime. But if you discount the overtime, there were 192 points scored in regulation, which went above the 188 closing over/under.
Fast forward and now the teams meet again with a slightly lower total listed. Yet, neither club is in good defensive form. The Pacers are giving up an average of 108.1 points per game in their last six games.
The Bucks held Miami to 88 points in their last game, but during their previous three games surrendered an average of 107.6 points a game.
Both teams have strong benches. Milwaukee's reserves should score more with O.J. Mayo back healthy and the likely possibility that Jared Dudley also will return beginning with this game.
This game is in the near pick range so overtime remains more of a possibility just like when they last met.

The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals.
If Meeks can't play he would be replaced by another big inside man, 6-10, 280-pound Joel James.
The Tar Heels are going to want to run. Wisconsin isn't going to let that happen. The Badgers have a very efficient offense with no weak parts. But they've always been about defense under defensive guru Bo Ryan, who is even more dangerous with extra preparation time.
The Badgers rank 10th in the country in scoring defense giving up 56.8 points per game. That average shrinks even lower to 56 on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest points off turnovers of any team in the country. North Carolina thrives off turnovers and in transition, but that isn't going to happen here. I don't trust Marcus Paige against a defense as savvy as Wisconsin's.
Paige is better going against up-temp teams. The Tar Heels had problems against slow-paced Harvard in their opening NCAA Tournament game winning just 67-65 while turning the ball over 18 times. The combined score of 132 went under.
North Carolina is a bit underrated defensively. The Tar Heels held 23 of their 37 opponents to 40 percent shooting or less from the floor.
Badgers guard Traevon Jackson is going to play for the first time since breaking his foot on Jan. 11. Jackson has looked rusty in practice, which is understandable. So while his minutes could be down from the more than 27 minutes he averaged before his injury, Wisconsin's offense might suffer while he's back in the lineup.   

Sacramento has won three in a row. Phoenix has won four straight. So something has to give.
The Kings are not a good road team, but Phoenix isn't strong enough to lay this many points especially on the defensive end where it holds foes to fewer than two points less per game than Sacramento.
Barring a semi-miracle, the Suns aren't a playoff team. If you discount the Suns' 117-point performance against Houston two games ago, they are averaging 89.4 points during their last seven games. The Suns have a losing spread record at home during their past 15 games at U.S. Airways Center.
Phoenix has bigger games on deck hosting Portland on Friday and Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Suns may still be without point guard Brandon Knight, who has missed the last six games with an ankle injury.
You can't judge the Kings by their 25-45 overall record. They are far more respectable since George Karl replaced Tyrone Corbin. Rudy Gay is thriving under Karl's system and DeMarcus Cousins is putting up superstar numbers. Cousins is a matchup nightmare for the undersized Suns and center Alex Len, who is just returning from an ankle injury.
 

Cleveland is hot winning 27 of its last 33. The Cavaliers are comfortably in second place in the Eastern Conference with little chance of moving up or down.
The Cavs very well may be the best team in the East. But they should not be road chalk against Memphis.
The Grizzlies also are playing well winning five of their last six, including the past three winning all five of these games by 11 or more points. The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the much stronger Western Conference, which is a surprise to some. The Grizzlies have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove themselves versus elite competition, which is what they face here. It's also a revenge spot for Memphis, which lost 105-91 on the road to the Cavaliers on Dec. 21 when it was missing Zach Randolph and had not traded for Jeff Green yet.
Memphis has a strong home-court. The Grizzlies have won 27 of their 34 home games, while Cleveland is three games above .500 on the road - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference.  
The Grizzlies present match up problems for every team with their No. 2 ranked defense and physical front line. Cleveland gives up 45.4 points in the paint on the road, which ranks fourth from the bottom. No team scores more points inside than Memphis thanks to Randolph and Marc Gasol. Randolph is a double-double machine and is likely to be guarded by Kevin Love, a weak defender.
The Cavaliers have been taking far more 3-pointers since acquiring gunner J.R. Smith. The Grizzlies hold foes to less than 33 percent shooting from 3-point range at FedEx Forum. That figure would rank No. 2 in the league if it included all of Memphis' games.
 
 

Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer.
Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot.
The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets.
Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng.  
Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well.
The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner.

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Portland ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.

It's going to be even more difficult for the Trail Blazers to score as they likely will be missing LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Chris Kaman, who doesn't play any defense. All three players are doubtful. 

The under has cashed in 23 of Portland's last 35 home games while the under has cashed in eight of Golden State's last 11 road games.

Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night.
But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks.
The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup.
The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

The under has cashed the past seven times in Seattle's home games. It's easy to see why. The last nine games played in Seattle have averaged less than a combined 107 points per game. 

Seattle ranks 51st in defense. The Redhawks are especially tough defensively at home allowing 56.1 points per game on 37.3 percent shooting from the floor. The Redhawks play at a slow pace, too, which is huge for the under. 

Colorado averages 69.1 points per game game, but that averages goes down six points a game when it is on the road. 

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

Scoring is up, defense is down for both of these teams.

The Nets have scored at least 122 points in three of their last four games. Brooklyn has allowed an average of 108.7 points per game in regulation during its past four games.

The Celtics have allowed an average of 109.3 points during their last three games. Boston gets back point guard Marcus Smart.

Here we have two lottery teams with nothing to lose. The 76ers are used to playing half-court Eastern Conference ball. Now they get to play an up-tempo Western Conference team that doesn't play defense. The Lakers rank 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
 The last time the 76ers played a team from the Western Conference was five games ago and they scored 114 points off Sacramento, an equally bad defense.
The Lakers have faced three strong defenses in a row - the Hawks, Warriors and Jazz. They scored 105 points on the Warriors, who are No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers have been idle since Thursday so they should bring a lot of energy.

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Both teams played last night. The Trail Blazers lost to the Magic and Memphis upset Dallas on the road by 11 points.
The Grizzlies are better equipped to handle this matchup of teams playing without rest. The Trail Blazers are playing their fifth road game in seven days. Their weak bench is made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews.
Memphis' depth has improved with Mike Conley and Vince Carter back. The Grizzlies are a much better team with Conley in the lineup. He had missed four games with an ankle injury until returning last night versus Dallas.
Portland is not a good road team as evidenced by their 16-17 away mark, 15-18 ATS. Memphis has one of the strongest home courts in the league.
The Trail Blazers rely heavily on LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Both played big minutes last night. The Grizzlies are a tough matchup for the Trail Blazers because they have excellent physical frontcourt defenders and Tony Allen is a defensive whiz who can defend Lillard.
Memphis has won eight of the last nine in the series, covering seven of the past eight. They are 3-0 this season against the Trail Blazers.

The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight.
Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle.
The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls.

Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game.
The Wolfpack have defeated Duke and won road games against Louisville and North Carolina. An added plus for the Wolfpack is the return of Anthony Barber, who is averaging 17.5 points during his last 11 games.
Villanova may not be as sharp coming off an easy win against an easy first round tournament opponent, Lafayette.

Arizona wasn't thrilled allowing Texas Southern to score 72 points. I'm expecting a stronger Wildcats' defensive effort against Ohio State.
Ohio State allows just 62.7 points per game. Arizona struggles to score when facing strong defenses. So under is the way to go in this matchup.

UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

Back in November, when they still were far from peaking, the Bruins beat the Blazers by 12 in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas.

UAB isn't very good and the Blazers are going to have problems coming down from their monster upset of Iowa State. The Blazers were lucky to win the Conference USA Tournament, which they hosted, or they wouldn't have received a bid to the NCAA Tournament having finished fourth in the conference during the regular season.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

The Grizzlies have had two full days to stew about their loss to Detroit this past Tuesday. The Pistons ended a 10-game losing streak with that victory.
Dallas isn't good at home - covering 42 percent of its games at American Airlines Center - has not fared well versus elite competition and is 8-22-2 ATS in its last 32 games against Western Conference foes. The Mavericks have also failed to cover four of the last five times when laying three or more points.
The Grizzlies are too physical for Dallas. Memphis ranks No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. The Grizzlies also rank in the top 10 in forcing turnovers.
The Mavericks lack the inside muscle to match up well against the Grizzlies. This was evident during their last meeting. That occurred on Jan. 27 in Dallas with the Grizzlies cruising to a 109-90 victory.
There's a chance the Grizzlies get back point guard Mike Conley, who has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle. Conley's absence has hurt the Grizzlies. But I still like them in this spot regardless of Conley's status. If he does suit up it's a nice bonus.

Davidson reminds me of Wisconsin except for being smaller. The Wildcats average 79.9 points a game, sixth-highest in the country. They ranked in the top 17 in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Only Wisconsin had a lower turnover percentage than Davidson.
Like Wisconsin, Davidson has that rare combination of shooting well from anyplace on the court while not turning the ball over. They are smart and unselfish just like the Badgers. The Wisconsin comparison is valid and significant because Iowa went 0-2 versus the Badgers losing by an average of 21.5 points.
The Hawkeyes don't shoot nearly as well as Davidson. They ranked 213th in 2-point shooting percentage and 217th in 3-point percentage. They also were 68 spots behind Davidson in turnover percentage.  
Sometimes a late loss can actually spark a team, or at least shake their complacency. That might turn out to be the case with Davidson, which had won 10 in a row before losing in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Wildcats won the regular season A-10 title so a letdown in the conference tournament was understandable.
The Wildcats have a strong history when stepping up covering 14 of the last 17 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They also have covered during their last seven non-conference games. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

Indiana is an excellent defensive team ranking third in the league in fewest points per game and defensive field goal percentage.
Cleveland is underrated defensively. The Cavaliers' defense has improved with the addition of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov.
Neither team, though, has been in great defensive form during the last week so we have a fairly high total.
The Pacers are really struggling offensively, averaging 91 points on 40.9 percent shooting during their last three games. The Pacers make their mark on defense not offense. They have lost and failed to cover in their last three matchups. This is a stop-the-pain game for them.
So I'm anticipating a maximum defensive effort. if you discount an off-game against the Raptors two games ago, the Pacers have given up an average of just 87.7 points per game during their last nine games.
I'm expected a strong defensive effort from Cleveland, too. The Cavaliers know they need to regain their earlier defensive dominance having surrendered 106 or more points in three of their last four games.

Now word has come down that LeBron James missed the shoot around today because he was ill. Obviously it would be another huge plus to the under if he didn't play.

Orlando's defense has slipped again. The Magic are giving up an average of 112.3 points per game during their last three games.

Portland has a top 10 offense and is the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.6 points during their last six games. But their defense hasn't been very good as they've been surrendering 105 points per game during this span.

I don't see Cal Irvine, in its first NCAA Tournament game ever, holding up against the constant pressure of Louisville's outstanding defense. The Anteaters are extremely susceptible to having a spurt or two take them out of the game.
Rick Pitinio has a tremendous track record in the NCAA Tournament with Louisville. The Cardinals have reached the Final Four in two of the past three years capturing the crown in 2013.
Louisville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 NCAA Tournament games. The Cardinals are battled tested coming from the ACC. They hold opponents to less than 60 points a game. The Anteaters are inexperienced and haven't faced anywhere near the competition the Cardinals have coming from the Big West Conference.

Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament.
Eastern Washington is a dangerous underdog because the Eagles have that rare combination of making 3-pointers and getting to the rim. They are tough to prepare against. I see them causing plenty of problems for the Hoyas.
The Eagles are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. They beat Indiana on the road and buried Texas Southern, an NCAA Tournament team, by 24 points.
Sparked by guard Tyler Harvey, the Eagles are the third-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.3 points per game. Harvey shoots 43.5 percent from 3-point range and also is an 85 percent foul shooter. He has scored in double figures in every game this season except one and knows how to get to the foul line.  
A key in this matchup is Eastern Washington's long-range shooting. The Eagles have the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the country of any team that shot more than 700 3-pointers on the season. They average 24.7 treys a game. Yet they rank ninth in the nation in 3-point percentage. Georgetown ranks 267th in defending against 3-pointers. So even if Eastern Washington were to fall behind they still have a strong capability to pull off a back-door cover if needed.
The Eagles are a better free throw shooting team than the Hoyas and have an active rebounder in 6-foot-8 Venky Jois, who helps combat Georgetown's height advantage.

The Suns aren't going to have Brandon Knight nor Alex Len back for this game. They aren't likely to make the playoffs either.

But if Phoenix has any hope of making the postseason it must win this game. The Suns have had four days off since beating the Knicks. This is their season. They won't lack for intensity or preparation.

The Pelicans are off two draining games, a double overtime loss to Denver at home on Sunday and a one-point home win versus the Bucks two days ago. They are the more tired team. It would be a huge break for the Suns if New Orleans held out Anthony Davis, who is bothered by a sore ankle. 

But even if Davis plays, I like the Suns to get the job done here. 

Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.
It's easy to forget the Utes were a top 10 team in February. They haven't fallen that far down. They are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games and have too much size and talent for the Lumberjacks, who don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6.
Stephen F. Austin is a prolific scoring team, but Utah ranked 13th in the country in shooting percentage at 48.5 percent. The Lumberjacks can't match the skill set of 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and guard Delon Wright. They also can't match up to the size of Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, another 7-footer. By contrast, the Lumberjacks' leading rebounder is guard Thomas Walkup.
The Lumberjacks played two NCAA Tournament teams in non-conference play this season - Baylor and Xavier. They lost by 16 and 18 points in those games.



  

This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas.
The Longhorns opened the season as an elite team. Then they tailed off, but showed signs of regaining their footing down the stretch. Certain teams can give Texas problems. But Butler isn't one of those teams.
Texas led the nation and set a school record in blocks. Butler's top two scorers, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones, are inside players although Dunham can knock down 3-pointers. Butler finished second in the Big East Conference in two-point field goals.
The Longhorns, however, are extremely tall and athletic. They are very tough to score against inside ranking fourth in the country in defensive field goal percentage.

The Hawks downed the Warriors, 124-116, when the teams met last month. I expect far more defensive intensity in this rematch in a battle of the two teams with the best records.
Atlanta ranks fourth in defense giving up 96.5 points per game. The Warriors rate No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holdings foes to 42.6 percent.
Kyle Korver and Klay Thompson both are out, too. That's huge from a defensive standpoint.