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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-01-21	Pistons +7 v. Hornets		94-107	Loss	-104	8 h 59 m	Show
The Hornets haven't been favored by this many points all season. I don't see it here. Not with the Hornets minus Gordon Hayward and LeMelo Ball. The Pistons have proven spunky. Their main rookies - Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes - have been playing well. Detroit is off a double-digit loss at home to the Mavericks. This is a step down in class for the Pistons, who usually play well following a defeat. They are 11-0 ATS in their next game after a double-digit home loss.
05-01-21	Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-116	13 h 32 m	Show
Forks, knives out. The Reds are ready to feast drawing Zach Davies at their great hitting home park. Davies probably isn't staying in the Cubs' starting rotation too much longer with a 9.47 ERA and 15 walks in 19 innings. Davies hasn't made it to the fifth inning during his past four starts. His ERA is 12.15 during this span. The Reds are leading the majors in runs scored at 5.4. The Over has cashed in 11 of their 13 home games for 85 percent. The Cubs' offense is coming around scoring 15 runs during the last two days. Chicago gets disappointing Luis Castillo, who has been terrible with a 6.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke either. Castillo's metrics back up how poorly he's pitched. Castillo's confidence is down. So this is a good spot for another Reds home Over.
05-01-21	Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5		0-1	Win	101	7 h 2 m	Show
The Red Wings weren't much offensively when they were at full strength. Now that they are enduring multiple injuries to key scorers, the Red Wings could be the worst offensive team in the NHL. Detroit has managed to score just two or fewer goals in six of its last seven games. The Red Wings have scored two goals during their last three games. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy could be the top goalie in the NHL with the second-high save percentage and fifth-best GAA at 2.10. The Red Wings understand their only hope of winning is by playing conservative with constant checking, not taking any chances, or getting into an up-tempo matchup. The Red Wings' last three games have reflected that - a 3-1 loss to the Hurricanes, a 1-0 shootout loss to the Blue Jackets and a 2-1 overtime loss to the Stars. Detroit has given up only four goals during regulation in its past three games.
04-30-21	Golden Knights v. Coyotes +1.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
The Coyotes are in desperation, must-win mode win trailing the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes have a winning record in their past nine home games and are primed to give a strong effort here. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, enter this matchup fat and happy. Their playoff ticket is punched and they are off a highly-satisfying, 5-2, home victory against the Avalanche this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights regard the Avalanche as their main competitor in the Western Conference. This is a prime letdown spot for Las Vegas. So this sets up as a great ambush spot for Arizona. But to play it safe, I'm going to lay the juice and take 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
04-30-21	Bucks -106 v. Bulls	Top	108-98	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
The Bucks have a tremendous track record playing the Bulls on the road covering the past eight times. I expect Milwaukee to make it nine straight against Chicago even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played less than a minute before suffering an ankle injury against the Rockets last night. The lowly Rockets stung the Bucks with a 143-136 win. It was the most points the Bucks have surrendered all season. I expect the prideful Bucks to play with super intensity following that humiliation. Milwaukee has the depth to overcome Antetokounmpo's expected absence. The Bulls are without their best player, too, Zach LaVine. He averages just half-a-point less a game than Antetokounmpo at 27.5 points.
04-30-21	Marlins v. Nationals +122		1-2	Win	122	6 h 14 m	Show
Emerging superstar Juan Soto is out for the Nationals. But Washington's injury list is nothing compared to the Marlins. Out for Miami are Starling Marte, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper. The Marlins have to count on Pablo Lopez to keep them in this game and Lopez has been dreadful against the Nationals. Lopez has a 6.61 versus Washington. That ERA climbs to 8.10 in four starts at Washington. Veteran Jon Lester is set to make his season debut for the Nationals.
04-29-21	Warriors -5 v. Wolves	Top	114-126	Loss	-110	14 h 10 m	Show
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat.
04-29-21	Dodgers -152 v. Brewers	Top	1-2	Loss	-152	14 h 14 m	Show
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and possibly even Freddy Peralta might give Trevor Bauer a close game. Not Eric Lauer. So this clearly is that rare case of a mid-size favorite having excellent value as I'd have made Bauer and the Dodgers close to a $2.00 favorite. Bauer had an NL-best 1.73 ERA last year. He's rounding into elite form this season with a 2-0 mark and 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 19 innings. Opponents are batting only .138 against Bauer during this span. The Dodgers have a rested bullpen, too, after Clayton Kershaw threw seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 8-0 victory against the Reds on Wednesday. The Brewers are 20th in runs and 24th in batting average. Christian Yelich and Lornzo Cain are out. Bauer has a 2.66 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers with a 32-to-4 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with one of those walks being intentional. Lauer, a lefty, was 0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four appearances, including two starts, for Milwaukee last year. This is his season debut. The Dodgers, who ranked fourth in runs, have won 26 of their last 38 games against a southpaw starter.
04-29-21	Flyers v. Devils OVER 6		3-5	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
Given that the Flyers are the worst defensive team in the NHL and the Devils are the third-worst, was there any surprise when the teams scored 10 goals when they met two days ago? Was it a shock when there were seven goals scored when the two teams played each other this past Sunday? Nope. New Jersey has surrendered four or more goals in eight consecutive games. The Devils have allowed at least three goals in 14 straight games. And the Devils give up fewer goals per game than the Flyers! Neither team is making the playoffs. So this should be another loose game lacking defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of the Flyers' last 14 games. The Flyers have short revenge after the Devils snapped their 10-game winless streak with a 6-4 victory this past Tuesday. The Over has won the past seven times the Flyers have been a road favorite.
04-28-21	Avalanche v. Golden Knights -127		2-5	Win	100	11 h 47 m	Show
Going to ride with the Golden Knights being home and playing in what they consider to be their biggest game of the season. Las Vegas has won a franchise-record nine in a row. The Golden Knights are 40-16 in their past 56 home games. Colorado has dropped two in a row, losing to the Blues, losing 4-1 two days ago and 5-3 this past Saturday. The Golden Knights are the healthier team. Colorado will be missing its leading goal scorer, Mikko Rantanen, right winger Joonas Donskoi and No. 1 goalie Philipp Grubauer, who has had a huge season. Not seeing Rantanen on the ice makes it easier for the Golden Knights to key on Nathan MacKinnon. The Golden Knights own a depth edge and have the size and brawn to take advantage of the Avalanche's undersized defensive corps.
04-28-21	Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers	Top	83-127	Loss	-115	11 h 2 m	Show
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply.
04-28-21	Royals -116 v. Pirates		9-6	Win	100	8 h 15 m	Show
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Royals have the best winning percentage in the majors. Kansas City is 14-8 and should get past Pittsburgh in a pitching matchup of lefty Mike Minor versus Mitch Keller. Minor is a respectable five-inning type pitcher and the Pirates are 0-8 in their past eight interleague games when going against a southpaw starter. Keller has command and control problems. He's 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in four starts. The Royals have an above average offense and rank No. 2 in steals despite not having Adalberto Mondesi all season.
04-27-21	Phillies -106 v. Cardinals		2-5	Loss	-106	12 h 22 m	Show
It's time to talk up Zach Eflin. Based on his early season performance, he's now in the argument for best No. 3 starter. Eflin has a 2.77 ERA with a 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 innings. One of the two walks Elfin gave up was intentional. Philadelphia is 10-2 in Eflin's last 12 starts. The Cardinals rank 22nd in batting average hitting .222. The Phillies, by comparison, have the seventh-highest batting average in the league at .243. St. Louis has been held to two or fewer runs in five of its last eight games. Carlos Martinez will oppose Eflin. Martinez is off his best start in three seasons pitching six innings of one-run baseball against the Nationals five days ago. Martinez, though, still isn't anywhere close to being trusted. He has a 6.00 ERA despite that gem. St. Louis is 0-5 in his last five starts.
04-27-21	Thunder v. Celtics OVER 216		119-115	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
I understand Oklahoma City's starting lineup of Theo Maledon, Kenrich Williams, Aleksej Pokusevski, Darius Bazley and Moses Brown is not going to bring back memories of the 1992 USA Olympic Dream Team. But the Thunder's lack of marquee talent cuts both ways. Their defense has been horrible. Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 122.8 points in its last seven games. The Thunder just surrendered 121 points to the 76ers last night. The Celtics may not have all of their weapons if Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III have to sit out again. But Boston does have Jaylen Brown and Evan Fournier back. Plus Boston just yielded 125 points to the Hornets two days ago. The Hornets are minus their two most effective offensive players, Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball.
04-27-21	Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -130	Top	0-1	Win	100	14 h 27 m	Show
This could be the first time I've ever laid a mid-size price with a team that has lost nine in a row. But I really see the Blue Jackets halting their losing skid. Columbus is home to Detroit. That's the reason. Columbus nearly ended its losing streak this past Sunday falling to defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay, 4-3, in overtime. The Red Wings have been an underdog in each of their last 56 road games. Their record in these contests is 9-47 for 16 percent. Detroit has lost in six of its last seven visits to Columbus. Detroit last played on Saturday falling, 2-1, to the Stars in overtime. That score was misleading, though. The Red Wings were outshot, 52-17. Detroit goalie Jonathan Bernier played well over his head. Elvis Merzlikins is likely to be in net for Columbus. I prefer him over either of Detroit's goalies, Bernier or Thomas Greiss. Discounting a freak 7-3 home win against the Stars, the Red Wings have scored five goals in their last four games. The Red Wings have limited firepower and that has been reduced with injuries to three centers, including Dylan Larkin, and right winger Bobby Ryan.
04-26-21	Coyotes -104 v. Sharks		4-6	Loss	-104	17 h 52 m	Show
The price is right to get on the Sharks fade train. San Jose has lost eight in a row. Only once during their last eight games have the Sharks scored more than two goals in a game. Defense isn't going to bail out the Sharks. They rank 28th defensively allowing 3.3 goals per game. Arizona is holding on to the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes looked good in their last game, a 4-0 blanking of the Kings in LA two days ago. The Coyotes have problems when stepping up in class. But they are 8-1 the past nine times against sub .500 foes. Arizona has beaten San Jose in five of the past six meetings.
04-26-21	Jazz -9.5 v. Wolves		104-105	Loss	-110	11 h 38 m	Show
The Jazz are tough enough to face under ordinary circumstances. Now the Timberwolves draw Utah in a rapid revenge spot. Minnesota stunned Utah, 101-96, as 12 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. The Jazz hadn't played at home in nine days and were going right back on the road following the game. Utah was distracted and not ready to bury the Timberwolves. The Jazz also were cold, shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor. That won't be the case here. The Jazz should be extremely fired-up and focused. They rank No. 3 in the NBA in scoring at 116.5. Minnesota ranks 29th defensively allowing nearly 118 points per game. The Timberwolves won their first two games of the season. They haven't won two straight since then. Minnesota is 7-18-2 ATS following a victory. The Timberwolves have failed to cover five of the last six times they've hosted Utah.
04-26-21	Hawks v. Pistons +4		86-100	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
The Pistons usually can be counted on for a good effort thanks to Dwane Casey. Detroit is in a great ambush spot here. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 111-104, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Atlanta achieved the victory minus its best player, guard Trae Young. The Hawks are short-handed in the backcourt and at wing with Young, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn all out. Not only are the Hawks in a letdown spot, but they carry a heavy fatigue rating, too. This marks Atlanta's fifth game in seven days and second in two days. Detroit is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Those losses were on the road. The Pistons are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two home contests beating the Cavaliers and Thunder. The Hawks are a notch above those teams, but they are just a borderline playoff team not some elite opponent. Detroit has covered 77 percent the past 26 times following a non-cover. The Pistons have been getting strong play from their bench. This could prove crucial given the Hawks' high fatigue status.
04-26-21	Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9	Top	2-4	Loss	-105	17 h 1 m	Show
Both offenses have been underachieving. Here is their chance to get right going against vulnerable starting pitching in a great hitter's park. Youngster Deivi Garcia is set to make his season debut. He had a 4.98 ERA in six games for the Yankees last season. Garcia has a high ceiling, but is still very much a work-in-progress and in the developmental stage. Matt Harvey is going for the Orioles. Need I say more? OK, here's more: Harvey shouldn't be in a big league rotation. His last good season was six years ago. He had an 11.57 ERA last season. His ERA was 7.09 in 2019. This season his ERA is 5.12 in four starts. I don't think he's long to stay in Baltimore's starting rotation. These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Baltimore with the Over cashing 68 percent of the time during the past 51 games.
04-25-21	Kings +9.5 v. Warriors	Top	113-117	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable.
04-25-21	Devils v. Flyers OVER 6		3-4	Win	100	3 h 16 m	Show
No great insights here. Just strongly believe each team should be good for at least 3 goals apiece given how bad the defenses are. The Devils rank 30th defensively allowing 3.4 goals per game. They've given up at least 3 goals in 12 straight games. The Flyers rank 31st defensively allowing 3.5 goals a game. The Flyers are a heavy favorite. The Over is 18-7-1 the last 26 times Philadelphia has been chalk.
04-25-21	Phillies v. Rockies -107		2-12	Win	100	6 h 10 m	Show
It has been 16 games since the Phillies last won two in a row. I don't see Philadelphia ending that streak here. Like many teams, the Phillies have trouble playing at Coors Field where they have lost eight of the past 10 times. Jon Gray is off to a good start for Colorado. Gray knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's 2-0 there this season with a 1.47 ERA in three starts. Chase Anderson hasn't had much luck at Coors where he has a fat 6.66 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies in Denver. Sunday Free Play Rangers plus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.10 (run line) at White Sox The White Sox won the first two games of this series by a combined three runs. I'm expecting another close score with a low total and cold weather with temperatures in the low 40s probably meaning runs will be tough to come by. Texas would be 8-4 in its last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The White Sox would be 4-8 in their past dozen games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The pitching matchup is Kohei Arihara versus Michael Kopech, who is taking the place of Luis Giolito, whose start has been pushed back to Tuesday because of a cut on his middle pitching finger. Arihara has impressed after coming to the Rangers from the Nippon Professional Baseball's Pacific League. He is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He enters this matchup riding a 12 1/3-inning scoreless streak. Kopech is an exciting young strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. But Kopech isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and he's far from being a polished big league pitcher yet. The White Sox won't have the use of their star closer, Liam Hendriks. He'll be rested after throwing a combined 46 pitches the last two days.
04-24-21	Bulls v. Heat -4.5		101-106	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
The Heat were humbled by the Timberwolves eight days ago. Miami responded to that bad loss by winning three in a row defeating the Nets and blowing out the Rockets and Spurs. But then last night the Heat's 3-game win streak ended in terrible form with a 118-103 road loss to the Hawks. It was one of the Heat's worst defensive games of the season especially considering Atlanta won without its two best players, Trae Young and Clint Capela. Miami bounced back after its loss to Minnesota and I see the Heat doing it again hosting the Bulls, who remain without their top player, Zach LaVine. I consider Erik Spolestra one of the top coaches in the NBA. I trust him to have the Heat fired-up after Friday night's stinker. The Bulls are 1-4 in their last five road games. During this span, Chicago lost by 16 points to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday, lost by 11 to the Grizzlies, fell to the Timberwolves by four and lost to the Hawks by 12.
04-24-21	Stars -1.5 v. Red Wings		2-1	Loss	-100	11 h 31 m	Show
Despite multiple injuries, the Red Wings came out of nowhere to surprise the hot Stars, 7-3, at home this past Thursday. Dallas is much the better team and won't get ambushed again. Detroit is 6-16 following a victory. All but one of the Stars' last six victories have been by more than one goal. Until Thursday's shocking four-goal loss to the Red Wings, the Stars had given up just 12 goals during their previous eight games.
04-24-21	Royals v. Tigers +101		2-1	Loss	-100	8 h 22 m	Show
Helped by playing 13 of their first 18 games at home, the Royals lead the AL Central with an 11-7 mark. Kansas City is due for regression. I'm not buying the Royals as a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Matthew Boyd. Singer is a youngster going through growing pains. He's had two of three rough starts this season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Royals are minus their closer Greg Holland. Boyd is back to being the Tigers' ace. He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL with 2-1 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
04-24-21	Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 216.5		103-120	Loss	-110	8 h 40 m	Show
The Knicks rank No. 1 in the major defensive categories, including giving up the fewest points per game at 104.7. Lately, though, the Knicks have been involved in some high-scoring games. The result is five Overs in their last six games. I find these Overs misleading. During their last five games, the Knicks have played two overtimes, met the Pelicans twice and Hawks once. This has led to a lot of scoring inflation. Toronto is a much different opponent. The Raptors have allowed just 105.5 points during their last six games, playing offenses much stronger than the Knicks, who rank 26th in scoring. There were a combined 198 points scored when the Raptors last visited New York just 13 days ago. The Knicks won that game, 102-96. This is a day game with an early start time, which I view as a plus for the Under. The Raptors also will be without injured Chris Boucher. The value of Boucher is well-known to anyone who participates in a deep Rotisserie basketball league like I do. Boucher is shooting 51.9 percent from the floor, which is the highest by far of any Toronto player logging more than 23 minutes a game.
04-24-21	Devils v. Penguins OVER 6		2-4	Push	0	11 h 34 m	Show
My usual lean to early start time games in the NHL is to go Under. Not in this case, though. These two teams have met twice during the past five days. The Penguins scored 12 goals during the first five periods. The Penguins went into defensive shell mode up 5-1 in Thursday's victory against the Devils. New Jersey is 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Devils have lost by more than one goal in eight of their last nine losses. It's clear the Penguins can score at will against them. New Jersey ranks 30th defensively. The Penguins are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. The Devils are capable of helping this total go Over, too. They had scored 12 goals in their previous three games prior to losing 5-1 this past Thursday. Pittsburgh's defense is merely average.
04-23-21	Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 232.5		130-128	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
The Grizzlies have been a tremendous Over road team. They've gone Over in 18 of their past 24 away matchups for 75 percent. If you discount the Grizzlies' last game, a 117-105 loss to the Clippers two days ago, Memphis is averaging 121.8 points in its past eight road games. A big takeaway from the Grizzlies' game against the Clippers was the season debut of 6-foot-11 Jaren Jackson Jr. He scored 15 points in fewer than 18 minutes. The Grizzlies now have an inside scoring threat to go with Ja Morant and a bunch of outside gunners. Jackson averaged 17.4 points last season. Portland ranks 25th in scoring defense and 26th in defensive field goal percentage. So the Grizzlies should get their points. The Trail Blazers are a top-10 scoring team and Memphis is a below average defensive club. The Trail Blazers finally are fully healthy. Damian Lillard had missed three games with a hamstring injury. He returned in Portland's last game, a 106-105 home loss to the Nuggets this past Wednesday. Lillard, though, was rusty shooting only 9-of-23 from the floor, including missing eight of 10 shots from 3-point range. I'm expecting a much better performance from Lillard.
04-23-21	Canadiens v. Flames -105		2-4	Win	100	15 h 21 m	Show
The Flames have had four days to rest, regenerate and think about a 4-2 loss to the cellar-dwelling Senators from this past Monday. Calgary is in must-win mode for this series. A loss to the Canadiens here, really seals the Flames' fate of not making the playoffs. I have to believe no-nonsense coach Darryl Sutter will have the Flames sky-high for this first of three straight crucial games against Montreal. The Flames have defeated the Canadiens in four of the last five meetings this season. Montreal nearly blew a 4-1 late lead against the Oilers this past Wednesday. The Canadiens held off the Oilers, 4-3. That was just Montreal's fourth road win in its past 14 away contests. Prior to scoring four goals versus Edmonton, the Canadiens were averaging a puny 1.5 goals in their last eight games.
04-23-21	Phillies v. Rockies -110	Top	4-5	Win	100	17 h 22 m	Show
Like many teams, the Phillies are vulnerable when it comes to the bottom of their rotation. Philadelphia is in a tough spot today having to give Vince Velasquez a spot start at Colorado because normal starter Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocol. Velasquez couldn't cut it as a starter before. He's been in long relief. I don't like his chances here against German Marquez. Marquez has been solid with a 3.57 ERA while pitching into the sixth inning in three of his four starts this season. He knows how to pitch effectively at Coors Field, too. The Rockies' bats are heating up. Colorado has scored 6 or more runs in three of its last four games. Velasquez has a 9.00 ERA. Velasquez has a career 4.91 ERA versus the Rockies in seven appearances. Philadelphia has lost in seven of its last eight games at Coors Field. The Phillies also are playing shorthanded. They are down several arms in their bullpen with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado out and have a middle infield shortage with Jean Segura on the IL with a strained quad and Didi Gregorius questionable due to an elbow injury.
04-23-21	Predators -121 v. Blackhawks		3-1	Win	100	14 h 29 m	Show
Maybe it was too easy. The Predators were on their way to beating the Blackhawks for the seventh consecutive time this past Wednesday leading, 4-1, with 10:03 left. The Blackhawks ended up pulling the game out, 5-4, in overtime. Nashville has outscored Chicago, 23-13, in its seven meetings this season. The Predators are 13-3 the last 16 times they've been favored. So I see them bouncing back and beating Chicago. Certainly the Predators won't be overconfident again. Chicago's rookie goalie, Kevin Lankinen, probably has hit the wall. He's had a tough month. Malcolm Subban was in net against the Predators and stopped 36 of 40 shots. No matter who's in net for Chicago, I like the Predators' defense better.
04-23-21	Flyers v. Rangers OVER 6		1-4	Loss	-120	14 h 38 m	Show
The Flyers nipped the Rangers, 3-2, on Thursday. I don't know how that total stayed Under 6. There were a combined 66 shots on goal - 33 by each team. Flyers goalie Brian Elliott, who nobody will confuse with Bernie Parent, made two point-blank saves. The Flyers had six power play opportunities. So I am going to get involved with today's rematch taking the Over. The Flyers should keep their intensity. They haven't forgotten about the humiliating 9-0 loss the Rangers pinned on them last month. New York dressed five defensemen 23 or younger in last night's game. The Rangers have surrendered at least 3 goals in each of their past four games. I do expect the Rangers to score at least 3 goals against a Philadelphia defense that is the league's worst giving up 3.5 goals per game.
04-22-21	76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225.5		117-124	Loss	-109	10 h 31 m	Show
The 76ers gave it a good try, but they fell to the Suns, 116-113, on Wednesday. Philadelphia was minus Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those probably are the 76ers' second, third and fourth-most valuable offensive players. Simmons isn't expected to play. Curry and Harris are questionable. Superstar Joel Embiid even might sit, or have his minutes reduced since this is the second consecutive game for Philadelphia. These absences have opened up more playing time for Matisse Thybulle, an excellent defender and a plus for the Under. The Bucks rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage defense. Not only are the 76ers playing without rest, but this will be their third game in four days. The Under has cashed the past five times the 76ers have played on zero rest so expect a slow pace from Philadelphia. The Bucks will have their defensive intensity having lost two in a row with the latest being a 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns this past Monday. That game was Under the total at the end of regulation. The 76ers rank seven in scoring defense and are No. 4 in defensive field goal percentage. There were only a combined 186 points scoring in regulation during the first meeting between the two clubs on March 17.
04-22-21	Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 5.5		4-2	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
I trust these two top-11 offenses to each produce at least 3 goals. The Hurricanes have scored 3 or more goals in six of their last eight games. The Panthers have scored 14 goals in their last three games. The Panthers remain without injured star defenseman Aaron Ekblad. The Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two teams in Florida.
04-22-21	Devils v. Penguins -1.5		1-5	Win	100	8 h 29 m	Show
Don't look for Penguins to come close to blowing a six-goal lead like they did this past Tuesday. Pittsburgh is some three tiers better than the Devils, who have lost seven in a row and are now firmly in the argument for worst team in the NHL. Yet the Devils nearly came back from a 6-0 deficit against the Penguins two days ago, losing 7-6 after trailing, 6-0. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan spent yesterday lecturing his team about not letting up. The Penguins have won 40 of their last 56 home contests and I expect a blowout here. New Jersey, losers of 23 of its last 30 games, could be short-handed on the blueline if P.K. Subban remains on the COVID-19 protocol list.
04-21-21	Nuggets v. Blazers +2	Top	106-105	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Nuggets are 3-0 since watching the horror of Jamal Murray go down for the season with a torn ACL. Denver has managed to beat the Heat, the hapless Rockets and the Grizzlies in double overtime this past Monday rallying from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes left in regulation. Now, though, the Nuggets are without Murray and fellow guard Monte Morris. He's out with a hamstring injury. Denver escaped the Grizzlies despite committing 24 turnovers. I don't see the Nuggets escaping on the road here against Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 113-112 home loss to the Clippers last night. Portland came very close despite not having Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is Portland's best player and Nurkic is their best front-court player. Both Lillard and Nurkic are expected to play against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers' huge backcourt edge should carry them through.
04-21-21	Canadiens v. Oilers UNDER 6		4-3	Loss	-120	12 h 40 m	Show
The Oilers can play a fast skating, wide open game, or they can go into a defensive shell. They are that flexible. It's the latter style they use when they play the Canadiens. Edmonton matched the physical Canadiens this past Monday winning, 4-1. It was the seventh straight Under game between the two teams. I don't see a style change in this rematch. I do see a lot of intensity with the Canadiens trying to clamp down on Connor McDavid and the Oilers not backing down from Montreal. The Canadiens are in a huge scoring funk averaging a puny 1.6 goals in their last nine games.
04-21-21	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5		2-5	Win	102	11 h 54 m	Show
It was an emotional game for the Sharks when they met the Golden Knights two days ago as it marked Patrick Marleau setting the record for most games played in NHL history. The Sharks gave it a great effort, but fell, 3-2, in a shootout. The Golden Knights came back from a 2-0 deficit. I don't see the Sharks being so up for this game. San Jose has lost six in a row. Before Monday's game, the Sharks had lost by multiple goals in eight of their past nine losses. Las Vegas had won four in a row by more than one goal before Monday's game. The Golden Knights were very classy following Monday's game in congratulating the Sharks and Marleau. Make no mistake, though, the Golden Knights hate the Sharks. This is a bitter rivalry. I don't see the Golden Knights coming out flat again. Las Vegas has won all six of the meetings between the two teams this season.
04-20-21	Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks		3-6	Loss	-114	17 h 32 m	Show
It was probably the biggest upset of the season. The Canucks stunned the Maple Leafs, 3-2 in overtime, two days ago. Vancouver hadn't played since March 24. Braden Holtby turned in his finest Vancouver performance stopping 37 shots. Holtby was filling in for regular goalie Thatcher Demko, one of 22 Vancouver players to test positive for COVID-19. Holtby has a save percentage of less than 90 percent and his GAA is 3.44. He's past his prime. The Maple Leafs are several tiers above the Canucks. I expect them to get their revenge in a big way here. Tuesday Free Play Penguins at Devils Over 6 minus $1.05 These two teams just met on April 9 and April 11 in Pittsburgh. The Penguins won those games, 6-4 and 5-2. So what's changed? Nothing. The youthful, mistake-prone Devils still are in full rebuild mode and the Penguins still have a well above average offense ranking sixth in goals. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or more goals in 10 of its last 13 games. The Penguins shouldn't encounter problems denting the net again versus the Devils, who rank 28th defensively and have the worst penalty kill in the league. New Jersey has surrendered a minimum of 3 goals in each of its last nine games. The Devils aren't quitting, though. They came from three goals down to tie the Rangers during their last game this past Sunday before losing, 5-3. The Penguins haven't been sharp defensively. They've given up seven power-play goals during their last eight games and are off a 4-2 loss to the lowly Sabres this past Sunday.
04-20-21	Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox	Top	2-4	Loss	-100	15 h 28 m	Show
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a nice early story for the Red Sox going 2-0 after having missed all of last season due to health issues. Rodriguez's starts have come against the Orioles and Twins. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that has a number of exciting young offensive stars. This is Rodriquez's first home start in two years. I'm not so much going against Rodriguez as I'm taking Hyun Jin Ryu at an underdog price. It's rare when Ryu is an underdog and this shouldn't be one of those times. Since 2018, Ryu has become an upper level pitcher with ERA's of 1.97, 2.32 and 2.69 last season. He's off to a great start this year with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three starts. He has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Ryu trumps Rodriguez and the Blue Jays have enough quality hitters to warrant trust.
04-20-21	Giants v. Phillies -151		10-7	Loss	-151	15 h 24 m	Show
Zach Wheeler is a quality pitcher. Logan Webb is not. So I have no qualms about laying this price with the home Phillies, who have won seven of their 10 games in Philadelphia this season. Webb has a career 5.30 ERA and 1.55 ratio. There was a glimpse of hope for him when he pitched well during spring training. But once the real season started Webb reverted back to form. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 ratio. The Giants had pulled him out of their starting rotation until Johnny Cueto was put on IL. Wheeler dominated the Braves in his opening start holding them scoreless for seven innings while giving up just one hit with a 10-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't as sharp in his next two starts against the Braves again and the Mets, but he wasn't terrible giving up three earned runs on each occasion. Now Wheeler steps down in class. The Giants rank 29th in runs and batting average.
04-19-21	Brewers v. Padres OVER 6.5		3-1	Loss	-110	10 h 17 m	Show
Brandon Woodruff is an excellent pitcher. Joe Musgrove has been a star in the early part of this season. But this isn't a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Yu Darvish. So a total of less than 7 is not justified especially with the Padres nearing full strength with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Tommy Pham back in the lineup. Christian Yelich is out. Yet if you discount a 6-1 loss to the Pirates, the Brewers have scored 19 runs in their last three games. Woodruff is nearing ace level. I'm not nearly that sold on Musgrove, though. Right now I consider him a middle-of-the-rotation type starter although I certainly acknowledge his fast start and getting to play his home games at Petco Park. I just believe this total is too low. Neither starter has an impressive history. Woodruff has a 4.50 ERA career-wise versus the Padres in three appearances, while Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in five starts against the Brewers.
04-19-21	Suns v. Bucks UNDER 235	Top	128-127	Loss	-110	15 h 48 m	Show
Both teams have something to prove each coming off bad losses. The Suns were blown out at home by the Spurs, 111-85, while the Bucks fell to the Grizzlies, 128-115, at home. Both of these losses occurred this past Saturday so the teams may have gotten caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup. These are two of the best teams in the NBA. So I'm expecting an intense, playoff-type defensive effort. Yes, there are great scorers on the court. But each team is excellent defensively, too, with the Suns ranking fourth in scoring defense and fifth in 3-point defense, while the Bucks ranking fifth in defensive field goal percentage. This is the Suns' first road game in 11 days. Discounting their away contest against the hapless Rockets, the Suns have averaged just 99 points during their last three road games. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be playing for the third time since being out six games with a knee injury. The Bucks aren't rushing him. He played fewer than 30 minutes against the Grizzlies, which is down from his usual 34-minutes of court time. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met in Milwaukee.
04-19-21	Cavs -2.5 v. Pistons		105-109	Loss	-110	8 h 44 m	Show
Scared about asking the Cavaliers to win on the road? Don't be. Cleveland has won and covered three of its last four road contests. The Cavaliers still have playoff hopes, while the Pistons are in full rebuild. The Cavaliers have covered the last five in this series, including winning both games against the Pistons this season. Detroit lost, 121-100, to the Wizards two days ago. The Pistons permitted the Wizards, whose guards usually do most of their damage, to score 74 points in the paint.
04-18-21	Rockets v. Magic OVER 218.5		114-110	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
Orlando is 1-7 in its last eight games. Houston is 1-10 in its last 11. Something has to give when these two lightweights meet today. Yeah that something is defense. The Rockets have allowed 125 or more points in each of their last five games. They stopped playing defense a long time ago. The Magic's defense has tumbled way down, too. Orlando is giving up an average of 120.1 points in its last eight games. A combination of getting gutted at the trade deadline and having injuries to their best defenders has lowered the Magic's once semi-respectable defense. Houston won't have John Wall. He's sitting out. I'm fine with that because the Rockets still have Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Jae'Sean Tate and underrated Kelly Olynyk. Wall hasn't had a stellar season either. Orlando will be minus point guard Michael Carter-Williams. So that means big minutes for Cole Anthony, who doesn't have Carter-Williams' defensive mind-set. The Magic have eight players 23 or younger. This is going to be a fun up-and-down game for them.
04-18-21	Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks	Top	2-3	Loss	-114	10 h 10 m	Show
Toronto is one of the best teams in hockey. The Maple Leafs are in rare stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Jets in their last game this past Thursday. The Maple Leafs are in a great scheduling spot here. They draw Vancouver, which hasn't played since March 24 because of an outbreak of COVID-19 that affected 22 of its players. Not only have the Canucks not played since then, but they've only been able to practice once during this long idle period. They still could be down as many as seven players. The Canucks certainly could use more time to get ready, but the league is anxious for them to resume their season. The Canucks are not up to par physically or mentally. I can't see them hanging close to the Maple Leafs regardless if Austin Matthews, the NHL's top goal scorer, plays or not after sitting out Thursday with a hand injury. Toronto has won five of the last six times it has been a road favorite. They are in a great spot to add to that record.
04-18-21	Penguins v. Sabres OVER 6		2-4	Push	0	7 h 53 m	Show
The Penguins are the No. 4 scoring team in the NHL. They have scored at least three goals in 10 of their past 12 games. The Penguins fired 38 shots on third-string Buffalo goalie Dustin Tokarski and came away with a 3-2 victory on Saturday. Now the Penguins are likely to draw Buffalo's fourth-string goalie, Michael Houser, as both Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton are injured. The Sabres have picked up their offense averaging 3.4 goals during their last 10 games. They played hard yesterday firing 28 shots on Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry. Now the Penguins likely will turn to backup goalie, Casey DeSmith, for this rematch.
04-18-21	Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5		6-3	Loss	-122	6 h 30 m	Show
Shane Bieber showed why he captured Cy Young Award honors last season throwing a 3-hitter for nine innings in a 2-0 victory against the White Sox during his last start this past Tuesday. I don't see the Reds doing much against Bieber. The Indians rank 26th in runs and 29th in batting. So Reds southpaw Wade Miley is facing a way below average offense as he looks to continue his sharp start having allowed only four hits and no runs during his first two starts spanning 11 innings. Cleveland is averaging only 2.3 runs during its last six games.
04-18-21	Indians -151 v. Reds		6-3	Win	100	5 h 29 m	Show
Shane Bieber. Any other questions why I like the Indians? If Jacob deGrom isn't the best pitcher in baseball, Bieber could be. The Indians are turning to Bieber to prevent getting swept by the Reds. Bieber has a 2.11 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Reds are due for serious offensive regression ranking first in the majors in runs and homers. Their offense is good, but not nearly this good. Wade Miley is set to oppose Bieber. He's also due for regression - heavy regression having thrown 11 scoreless innings to begin the season. Miley has never opened with three victories in a row during his 10 years in the majors. He has a 4.60 ERA in seven career starts against the Indians, with the last one being in 2019. I don't like the Indians' offense. But they should be able to cobble together a few runs against Miley, which is all Bieber and a strong bullpen backend would need.
04-17-21	Spurs v. Suns OVER 227		111-85	Loss	-104	8 h 29 m	Show
When it comes to NBA superstars, Devin Booker's name often gets lost. But sparked by Booker, who averages 25.7 points a game, the Suns are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They also rank No. 2 in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. San Antonio is a below average defensive team that has given up at least 117 points in six of its last nine games. Phoenix has scored at least 117 points in eight of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in eight of the Suns' last 10 games. The Spurs have produced 115 or more points in eight of their past 12 games so they should contribute their fair share in getting this total to go Over.
04-17-21	Astros -130 v. Mariners		1-0	Win	100	15 h 14 m	Show
Minus starters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are at a bargain price against the Mariners because of those absences in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus Chris Flexen. Greinke isn't the dominant force of years past, but he's a solid "B" tier pitcher. I consider Flexen to be an "F" tier pitcher. He gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Sunday. Flexen sat out last season. He had a 6.59 ERA with the Mets in 2019 and a 12.79 ERA in limited innings with the Mets in 2018. The Astros rank in the top-five in numerous key offensive categories. They have the depth to overcome the loss of Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez especially facing such a weak starter and a bad Mariners bullpen that carries a high fatigue rating. This is Seattle's fifth game in four days. The Mariners just got into Seattle on Friday after sweeping a doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday and then nipped the Astros in a come-from-behind victory on Friday. The Astros were idle this past Thursday so their bullpen is relatively fresh. Despite Friday's defeat, the Astros still have beaten the Mariners in 40 of the past 55 games.
04-17-21	Cavs v. Bulls -121	Top	96-106	Win	100	17 h 32 m	Show
Zach LaVine is out and the Bulls are on a five-game losing streak. So why back them? Two words: Cleveland Cavaliers. It's not too much to ask the Bulls to simply beat the hapless Cavaliers at home. This is the Bulls' opportunity to stop the bleeding while fighting for the 10th and final place in the play-in tournament. Chicago is tied with Toronto for that spot. LaVine is the Bulls' top scorer, but Chicago still holds an inside edge thanks to Nikola Vucevic. The Cavaliers rank last in scoring and second-to-last in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has failed to cover in 15 of its last 22 road contests. The Cavaliers' average road loss is by nearly double-digits.
04-17-21	Blue Jackets +163 v. Stars		1-5	Loss	-100	10 h 21 m	Show
I'm not going out on a limb to say there aren't going to be many goals scored here with the total at 5. This is last stand time for the Blue Jackets if they want to maintain any playoff hope. Columbus isn't going to lack incentive following a 4-1 loss to the Stars from two days ago. The Blue Jackets had been competitive in their previous four games splitting two with the Lightning and losing two to the Blackhawks by one goal each. Columbus grabbed an early lead against Dallas, but couldn't hold it. The Stars have a below offense. This huge underdog price puts me on the Blue Jackets in what shapes up as a one-goal type of dogfight game.
04-17-21	Senators +1.5 v. Canadiens		4-0	Win	100	1 h 57 m	Show
I'm not sold on the Canadiens to win this game especially by multiple goals. Montreal has won only once by more than one goal during its last eight games. The Canadiens are missing one of their key offensive players with Brandan Gallagher out. The Senators usually keep games close. They would be 11-3 in their last 14 games if given 1 1/2 goals.
04-17-21	Rays -104 v. Yankees		6-3	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
Unless they're playing the Orioles, the Yankees just aren't that good. Unfortunately for the Yankees they're not going against the Orioles today but the Rays. Tampa Bay has beaten New York in 13 of its last 16 regular-season games, including 8-2 on Friday. I expect the Rays' dominance in this series to continue today since they are pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's in the argument for best pitcher in the American League with a 0.46 ERA. He has a lifetime 1.54 ERA at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are not playing well, losers of of six of their last eight games. They've allowed 20 runs in their last three games and haven't scored more than four runs during their last four games. New York is starting Jordan Montgomery. The Rays just saw him six days ago and got to him for four runs in five innings. Montgomery has a 5.54 ERA lifetime against Tampa Bay in seven starts.
04-17-21	Capitals -133 v. Flyers		6-3	Win	100	3 h 26 m	Show
The Capitals are 18-4 the last 22 times they've been favored. They should bring their "A" level intensity to this matchup following a 5-2 upset loss to the Sabres this past Thursday, while the Flyers stunned the Penguins, 2-1, in a shootout this past Thursday. The Flyers haven't won two in a row during their past nine games. Washington has defeated Philadelphia in four of five meetings this season. The Capitals are the No. 2 scoring team in the league while the Flyers surrender the most goals per game in the NHL.
04-16-21	Astros -109 v. Mariners		5-6	Loss	-109	17 h 30 m	Show
Normally the Astros would be priced much higher against the Mariners and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. But the Astros have three starters on the injured list - Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez. I still like Houston, though, to beat Seattle and the price is right to get involved. The Astros have a lot of depth to offset three starters being sidelined. They rank in the top-four in the major offensive categories. Kikuchi is pitching better so far this season than in his two previous seasons, but he has a terrible history versus Houston with a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings spanning five career starts. The Astros have won 69 percent of their past 75 road games against a lefty starter. The situation also shapes up nicely for the Astros. The Mariners had to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast after sweeping a road doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday. Seattle has played four games during the last three days. Unlike the Mariners, the Astros will have a fresh bullpen in support of starter Jose Urquidy. Houston was idle on Thursday. The Astros are 42-11 the last 53 times following an off day. Houston also has dominated the Mariners winning 40 of the past 54 games.
04-16-21	Tigers v. A's -1.5		0-3	Win	111	17 h 30 m	Show
The A's took care of the Tigers, 8-4, on Thursday and I see them beating Detroit by multiple runs again today. The Tigers are 1-8 in their last nine games at Oakland Coliseum. Oakland is riding a five-game win streak. The A's are swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games. Oakland has a huge pitching edge in this matchup with Jose Urena facing Frankie Montas. Urena has an 8.22 ERA in starts against the Indians and Twins with a 2.09 WHIP. Detroit has the worst bullpen in the majors with a 6.65 ERA. Montas displayed signs of reverting back to his excellent form of two seasons ago during his last start when he held the Astros to one earned run in six innings. The Tigers are below average offensively ranking 21st in runs and batting average.
04-16-21	Magic v. Raptors -130		102-113	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
The expression fat and happy doesn't usually apply to the Orlando Magic. But in this rare case it does. The Magic halted a six-game losing streak by beating the Bulls and former teammate, Nikola Vucevic, 115-106, this past Wednesday. I don't see the rebuilding Magic bringing that kind of intensity to this matchup against the desperate Raptors, who need to make a move now. Toronto showed it still can be a force defeating the Spurs, 117-112, two days ago despite missing Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet. Both Lowery and VanVleet are expected to play for Toronto today. The Magic couldn't stop VanVleet when the teams last met in Orlando on Feb. 2. VanVleet scored 54 points in a 123-108 Toronto victory. The Raptors also defeated the Magic, 115-102, on Jan. 31 at home. The Raptors should have some added insight into the Magic having acquired former Orlando center Khem Birch eight days ago.
04-16-21	Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 235		111-119	Win	100	5 h 40 m	Show
This is a weird Friday matinee game, which I consider a plus for the Under. The total is set high because the Pacers and Jazz have been piling up a lot of points against bad defenses. So I believe their current scoring form is skewed. The Pacers' last six games have occurred against five below average defenses. Now they go against the Jazz on the road. Utah gives up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Indiana ranks 22nd in scoring defense. Yet this will be the Jazz's toughest defensive foe in their last five games. Utah's previous four games were against defenses ranked 24th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There were just 198 points scored when the two teams met earlier this season at Indiana on Feb. 7 with the Jazz winning, 103-95. It's a break for Indiana if Jordan Clarkson has to miss another game with an ankle injury. Clarkson is the NBA leader in points off the bench this season, but he shot just 34.5 percent from the floor in March.
04-16-21	Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5		5-2	Loss	-120	12 h 37 m	Show
Two mediocre pitchers. Wind not being a big factor. So why a total this low at Wrigley Field? It's not the Braves' fault. They are averaging six runs a game during their past seven games. Ronald Acuna is the hottest hitter in baseball batting .442 with seven homers and 14 RBI's. The problem is the Cubs. Despite a respectable lineup on paper, Chicago is last in the majors in runs and batting average. This isn't going to continue, though. The Cubs have too many good veteran hitters and Kris Bryant and Javier Baez already are showing signs of having bounce-back seasons. Baez has three homers. The Cubs ran into some tough Brewers pitching in their last series. Chicago was idle on Thursday. I see the Cubs coming back refreshed and in attack mode against Drew Smyly and a Braves bullpen that is proving to be overrated. Smyly has a 5.73 ERA in two starts. He's already permitted three homers in 11 innings and has a 61 percent hard-hit rate. The Braves should continue their high scoring facing Zach Davies. who in two starts has an 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. The wind will be blowing in, but at less than 10 mph.
04-15-21	Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5	Top	121-113	Loss	-110	18 h 57 m	Show
It's taken until April, but the Celtics finally have started to play good basketball winning six of their last seven games. Strong defense has keyed Boston's turnaround. The Celtics rank fifth in defensive efficiency during their last 10 games, eight of which have gone Under the total. Boston has held four of its last seven opponents to fewer than 103 points. The Lakers have really stressed defense knowing their scoring was going to take a major hit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined. LA has slowed down its tempo since losing their superstars and that pace is even slower now with Andre Drummond in the lineup. Drummond has yet to find a comfort zone in LA's offense. He's scored only seven points during the past two games despite logging around 25 minutes a game. This is what Drummond was quoted as saying, "Offensively it's probably the worst I've played in my career, so I'm still trying to figure it out. But I'm not allowing it to take me out of my game. I know why I'm here, which is to help this team out defensively." The Lakers have surrendered an average of just 100.5 points during their last 10 games. That defense easily would rank first in the NBA if computed out for the entire season. Don't look for the Lakers to speed up their style either in this matchup. They just concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Tuesday night at Charlotte. So their jump-shooting legs could still be tired and they have to reacquaint themselves with the shooting rims at Staples Center. The pace was extremely slow when the Lakers nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in the first meeting this season. James and Davis combined for 48 points in that matchup at Boston. There should be playoff intensity reminiscence of this once great rivalry in this matchup. The Celtics have revenge. The Lakers will have fans in the stands - around 2,000 of them - for the first time this season. The Under has cashed in each of LA's last six home contests.
04-15-21	Tigers v. A's -1.5		4-8	Win	125	9 h 17 m	Show
A lot of teams have trouble playing the A's in Oakland. So it's no surprise Detroit is one such club. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight visits to Oakland. The Tigers are ripe for a letdown after sweeping a three-game series against the COVID-19-ravaged Astros. The pitching matchup is lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 7.71 ERA this season after a pair of starts versus the Indians, against Sean Manaea, who is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. The A's are 40-14 the past 54 games when facing a lefty starter.
04-15-21	Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6		2-1	Loss	-125	13 h 5 m	Show
The oddsmaker is making a mistake if he hangs anything less than 6 1/2 goals on a Flyers total when Philadelphia is playing a good offensive team. The Penguins are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL. Pittsburgh has scored 4 or more goals in nine of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's past five games. The Flyers have allowed three or more goals in 20 of their last 24 games. The Over is 17-7 in those games. The Penguins, though, are giving up 4.6 goals in their last five games. So the Flyers, who have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 games, should hold up their end in making this total go Over. Thursday Free Play Penguins minus $1.65 hosting Flyers I'm old enough to remember Bernie Parent and the Broad Street Bullies. So I can't say the Flyers never had great goaltending. They just haven't had it for the past 45 years. The Flyers are 2-6 in their last eight games, following a 5-3 loss to last-place Buffalo this past Sunday and a 6-1 blowout defeat to Washington this past Tuesday. The Flyers hoisted up the white flag at the trade deadline signaling they are in rebuild mode. I'm not expecting the Flyers to do much here in action for the fourth time in six days and meeting a hot Pittsburgh team that has won eight of its last 10, including the past three all by multiple goals. The host Penguins will be rested, too, having last played this past Sunday. The Penguins were active at the trade deadline acquiring two-time Stanley Cup champion veteran Jeff Carter to center and shore up their battered second line, which is without Evgeni Malkin and Freddy Gaudreau. Center probably is the versatile Carter's best position. He also adds to the Penguins' special teams units. Only Ottawa surrenders more goals per game than the Flyers, who give up nearly 3.6 goals a game. The Penguins are the No. 4 scoring team in the NHL. They have tallied 4 or more goals in nine of their past 10 games. Sometimes there can be value backing the favorite, even heavy chalk like this. This is such a case.
04-14-21	Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5.5		4-1	Loss	-118	17 h 36 m	Show
Even though the Ducks and Sharks are not big scoring teams, I'm surprised not to see a 6 on the total for this matchup. Anaheim ranks 26th defensively allowing 3.2 goals per game, while San Jose is 29th permitting 3.3 goals a game. The teams have met twice during the last eight days. The Ducks have scored a combined nine goals against the Sharks in these two games. Anaheim just beat the Sharks, 4-0, this past Monday. Note, though, the Sharks fired 46 shots on goal against rookie backup goalie Anthony Stolarz. No Anaheim goalie in franchise history recorded more stops in a shutout than Stolarz did in that game. Both teams are down defensemen. The Sharks won't have Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is injured. This means more playing time for Radim Simek and Christian Jaros, both of whom played poorly against the Ducks this past Monday being on the ice for three of Anaheim's goals. The Ducks recently traded two of their top six defensemen with Ben Hutton and Jani Hakanpaa being dealt. Keep in mind, too, the Ducks remain without injured defenseman Hampus Lindholm.
04-14-21	Mavs -130 v. Grizzlies		114-113	Win	100	11 h 60 m	Show
Minus their rebounding and blocks leader, Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks still defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, on Feb. 22. That was the first game following the week-long All-Star break. I don't see why a healthy Mavericks squad can't duplicate that victory. Dallas is 16-12 on the road. Memphis has a losing home record. The Mavericks have covered in five of their last six visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are off an 11-point home win against the struggling Bulls. This is their third straight home game and sixth game in nine days. The Mavericks are in a bad mood following an embarrassing, 113-95, home loss to the 76ers from two days ago. Dallas is 9-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game.
04-14-21	Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild		2-5	Loss	-147	8 h 11 m	Show
The Wild's schedule and mental frame have been thrown out of whack due to protests in the Minneapolis region following the police shooting of unarmed Daunte Wright. The Wild's Monday night home game against the Blues was postponed until May 12 and their game today against Arizona was moved up to the afternoon instead of being played in the evening like originally scheduled. All of this has to be distracting and disconcerting to the Minnesota players and families. It leaves open how much concentration and intensity the Wild will have in this matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves played on Tuesday afternoon at home against the Nets after their original Monday night game against the Nets was postponed. The Timberwolves were blown out by 30 points. Unlike the Timberwolves, the Wild are heavy favorites in this game. Because of circumstances brought about by the tragic shooting, the Wild are more susceptible to being flat. I can't trust the Coyotes, losers of four in a row, to pull off the outright upset but I will lay high juice to back them at plus 1 1 2 goals on the puck line. The Coyotes are in stop-the-pain mode. Their last three losses have come to elite foes, two games against the Golden Knights and one to the Avalanche.
04-14-21	Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5		2-5	Loss	-120	8 h 10 m	Show
Minnesota is an above average defensive club that is tough at home. The Coyotes know this first-hand. They visited the Wild for three games on March 12, 14 and 16. Arizona scored a grand total of one goal in those three games. Arizona, though, has been playing solid defense if you toss out giving up seven goals to the Golden Nuggets during a recent game. Discounting that performance, the Coyotes are giving up an average of 2.5 goals in their last six games. The Under has cashed each of the past four times the teams have met in Minnesota. Note there is a time change in this game. It's gone from a night start to a matinee because of the unrest in the Minneapolis area. That's a plus for the Under.
04-13-21	Celtics v. Blazers -110	Top	116-115	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
This is the middle game of the Celtics' three-game road swing. Boston won its third consecutive game upsetting the Nuggets, 105-87, this past Sunday. The Celtics have been living on the edge as each of their victories during their win streak have been come-from-behind. The Celtics have a revenge game on tap against the Lakers on Thursday. LA nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in Boston on Jan. 30. Portland is going to be motivated for this contest while Boston could be flat because of the scheduling. The Celtics are 4-13-1 ATS following a win. They also are 11-16 on the road this season. The Trail Blazers are off a listless, 107-98, home loss to the Heat this past Sunday. Blazers coach Terry Stotts was not happy with how his team played in that loss. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Trail Blazers. Portland is just 2-4 in its last six games. Note, though, the Trail Blazers' losses during this span have come to the Heat, Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. The Celtics are not in the class of the Jazz, Clippers and Bucks.
04-13-21	Panthers -108 v. Stars		3-2	Win	100	16 h 5 m	Show
The Panthers have had two full days to stew about a poorly-played 4-1 road loss to the Stars. Now it's rematch time and I expect Florida to be ready. Florida is the better team and has proven road-worthy going 12-8-1. The Panthers have won in eight of their last 11 visits to Dallas. Dallas is not a good home club. The Stars are 4-13 in their last 17 home games. This marks their fourth game in six days so they carry a high fatigue rating, too. Prior to this past Saturday's loss to the Stars, the Panthers had swept two games at Dallas on March 27-28 winning, 4-3 and 4-1. The Panthers also took two of three from the Stars at home in late February. Chris Driedger will be in net for Florida. He's 2-1 with a 1.34 goals against average in three career matchups versus Dallas.
04-13-21	Rangers v. Devils OVER 5.5		3-0	Loss	-130	15 h 48 m	Show
The Rangers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. In this case, the Devils are not a very worthy opponent. New Jersey is giving up an average of 4.4 goals in its last seven games. The Devils have surrendered 3 or more goals in nine of their past 11 games. The Rangers are the No. 7 scoring team in the NHL. New Jersey is last in killing off penalties. The Devils have been scoring lately, averaging 3.8 goals in their last five games. So I envision a sloppy game with plenty of defensive mistakes leading to each team contributing at least three goals. Historically, these two teams play high scoring games against each other. There have been only five Unders during the past 26 games in the series.
04-13-21	Flyers v. Capitals OVER 6		1-6	Win	100	15 h 42 m	Show
It's difficult not to envision an Over when the total is less than 6 1/2 on a Flyers game and their opponent is the Capitals. The Flyers have allowed 3 or more goals in 19 of their last 23 games. The Over is 16-7 in those games. The Capitals just scored eight goals in its last game two days ago against the Bruins. Philadelphia has scored a minimum of two goals a game in 10 of its past 11 contests. The Capitals have gone Over in 42 of their last 61 home games for 69 percent.
04-13-21	Nets v. Wolves UNDER 233.5		127-97	Win	100	3 h 5 m	Show
Yes I'm aware that I'm trying to make a pair of bottom-six defenses work by going Under. But the high total offsets that. So in studying this matchup and seeing Brooklyn's lengthy injury report, I find Under to be the way to go. The teams met just 16 days ago and the Nets won, 112-107, for a combined 219 points. Not surprisingly, the stars of that game were James Harden and Kyrie Irving. They combined for 65 points on 22 of 47 shooting from the floor while knocking down 15 of 16 free throws. Neither Harden nor Irving is going to play today. Also out for the Nets are LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyler Johnson. Kevin Durant is in the lineup. However, this is only his third game back from a long injury layoff and he's been on a minutes restriction since returning. The Nets are sure to be stressing defense after getting torched in embarrassing fashion, 126-101, by the shorthanded Lakers this past Saturday. Minnesota is defensively-challenged. But next to Durant, the player the Timberwolves most have to worry about is guard Joe Harris. They should be able to handle that. So the Timberwolves' defensive task has been made much easier with the Nets down Harden, Irving and Aldridge. There will be no fans in the stands and the game is being played in the afternoon. I regard this as more of a plus for the Under.
04-12-21	Rangers v. Rays -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-107	15 h 50 m	Show
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run.
04-11-21	Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers	Top	124-131	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent.
04-11-21	Rangers v. Islanders -118	Top	2-3	Win	100	16 h 54 m	Show
The Islanders don't often lose at home. But they are coming off a bad 4-1 defeat to the Rangers at Nassau Coliseum this past Friday. That halted a five-game home win streak for the Islanders. The Islanders, though, had been playing with fire narrowly winning their previous home game, 3-2, against the Flyers in a shootout. The Islanders have won 23 of their last 31 home contests. They are 17-2-2 at Nassau Coliseum this season, tied with the Avalanche for most home victories. Barry Trotz is one of the top coaches in the NHL. I don't envision the Islanders playing a third consecutive flat game at home. The Rangers were beaten by the lowly Sabres in their previous road game prior to defeating the Islanders. Depth is going to factor here since both teams are in action for the fourth time in six days. The Islanders are 7-0 the past seven times they were in a 4-in-6 situation.
04-11-21	Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers		5-3	Win	100	12 h 15 m	Show
Less than 24 hours after a achieving a highly-satisfying 3-2 win against the Bruins on Saturday, the Flyers have to play again. The opponent is the rebuilding Sabres. So I need to go to the puck to get an extra cushion at plus 1 1/2 goals, but this definitely is a bad spot for Philadelphia. The Flyers exerted a lot of energy holding off the Bruins, including going 4-for-4 in penalty kills. The Flyers carry a huge fatigue factor as this is their fifth game in seven days. The two teams met twice in Buffalo on March 29 and 31. The Sabres blew a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 overtime loss. Buffalo came back to whip the Flyers, 6-1, to end its 18-game losing streak. The Sabres have played better during their last eight games as some of their younger players develop more. If given 1 1/2 goals during this span, the Sabres would be 7-1.
04-10-21	Oilers v. Flames +101		0-5	Win	101	14 h 55 m	Show
Last chance Calgary. The Flames desperately need this home victory if they realistically harbor any playoff hope. There's going to be hell to pay in Calgary if the Flames don't get it with some of the team's mainstays possibly being traded before Monday's trade deadline passes. Calgary certainly should be well prepared having last played on Monday. The Oilers, on the flip side, will be in action for the fourth time in six days. The Oilers were fortunate to get past the last-place Senators, 3-1, this past Thursday. Edmonton will be minus injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He's fourth on the Oilers in goals and points.
04-10-21	Angels v. Blue Jays -120		1-15	Win	100	16 h 21 m	Show
Face it. Jose Quintana is a below average starter. Constant ERA's in the high 4.00's show that. The White Sox and Cubs have moved on from him and probably the Angels will, too. Quintana wasn't good in his Angels debut giving up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Astros this past Monday. I much prefer Steven Matz, who was quite the opposite of Quintana in his season debut. Matz allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rangers this past Monday, carrying over from his fine spring performances. The Angels took advantage of Toronto's lack of pitching depth to beat the Blue Jays, 7-1, on Friday. The Angels, though, are a weak road club, losers of 40 of the past 59 away contests.
04-10-21	Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5		4-3	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
I don't understand why the oddsmaker can't see at least six goals being scored here. The Blackhawks give up the most shots on goal and have the worst penalty kill in the league. Opponents have racked up 3 or more goals in nine of the past 13 games versus the Blackhawks. The Blue Jackets just put up consecutive 4-goal games against Tampa Bay and Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the top goalie in hockey. The Blue Jackets rank 25th defensively giving up 3.1 goals per game. They also give up a lot of shots on goal and are well below average in killing off penalties. Columbus has permitted 3 or more goals in eight of its last 10 games. Both teams are frustrated and anxious to break out. The Blackhawks are off a 5-1 home loss to the Stars from two days ago, while the Blue Jackets are 1-4 in their last five games and off a 6-4 home loss to the Lightning from Thursday.
04-10-21	Jets v. Canadiens -128		5-0	Loss	-128	11 h 36 m	Show
I want the Canadiens going for me in this quick revenge spot. The Jets overcame not having Blake Wheeler to beat Montreal, 4-2, on the road two days ago. Wheeler remains out. Montreal had a terrible first period in that loss. I look for the Canadiens to be much sharper this time. I'm more than fine with Jake Allen in net. He's been more consistent this season than Carey Price, who isn't the super goalie of years past.
04-10-21	Red Sox v. Orioles +121		6-4	Loss	-100	14 h 48 m	Show
It's deja vu all over again with this pitching matchup. Garrett Richards and lefty Bruce Zimmermann squared off six days ago in Boston and the Orioles smashed the Red Sox, 11-3. Now the same two pitchers go at it in Baltimore. The Red Sox don't appear any better than the Orioles this season and Richards hasn't shown anything. So give me the home 'dog. Richards couldn't last three innings against the Orioles this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits in two-plus innings. The same command issues that plagued him during spring training weren't resolved. Zimmermann, on the other hand, threw six solid innings against the Red Sox giving up three runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 games facing a lefty starter, including 1-2 this season. The Orioles hold a bullpen edge, too, with Cesar Valdez emerging as an early-season star with two saves and a win. Valdez has five strikeouts and one walk in 4 1/3 innings.
04-09-21	Rockets +12 v. Clippers	Top	109-126	Loss	-108	12 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points.
04-09-21	Coyotes v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5		4-7	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
Below the radar, the Coyotes have picked up their offense. Arizona is averaging 4 goals per game during their last eight games. They have scored at least 3 goals in each of these past eight games. The Over has cashed in eight of Arizona's last 10 games. The Golden Knights enter this home matchup frustrated and ready to break loose. They fired 51 shots against the Blues in their last game two days ago on the road, yet still lost, 3-1. Las Vegas is averaging 3.4 goals in its last nine home contests.
04-09-21	Padres v. Rangers OVER 9	Top	3-0	Loss	-114	9 h 10 m	Show
There's no questioning San Diego's offensive abilities even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out, especially since the Padres get to use a DH for the first time this season. It's the Rangers, though, that have been a major offensive surprise so far. Texas has the sixth highest batting average in the majors and ranks 10th in runs scored. The Padres are pitching Joe Musgrove, who is prone to the long ball and more vulnerable being away from Petco Park. He has a lifetime 4.76 ERA against the Rangers in seven appearances, including five starts. San Diego has committed an MLB-high eight errors. San Diego should be able to do damage against Texas starter Kohei Arihara and a very weak Texas bullpen. Arihara made his big league debut against the Royals six days ago and was touched for three runs on six hits in five innings finishing with a 5.40 ERA.
04-08-21	Suns v. Clippers -5	Top	103-113	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close.
04-08-21	Stars -113 v. Blackhawks		5-1	Win	100	16 h 51 m	Show
Sparked by strong goaltending from Kevin Lankinen, the Blackhawks held off the Stars, 4-2, this past Tuesday scoring an empty-net goal with seven seconds left to account for the final score. I don't see Chicago being so fortunate in the rematch. The Stars have the stronger defense and the Blackhawks are 1-6 following a victory. Dallas ranks 10th defensively permitting 2.4 goals per game. The Stars give up the fourth-fewest shots on goal. The Blackhawks, by comparison, rank 21st on defense yielding 3.1 goals a game and give up the most shots on goal.
04-08-21	Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9		7-3	Win	100	12 h 34 m	Show
Sorry to inform the Orioles that this is not 2013. Matt Harvey isn't good. Harvey's ERA the past three seasons: 11.57 last season, 7.09 in 2019 and 7.00 in 2018. Yet the Orioles have Harvey in their rotation and he's starting today against the Red Sox, who scored 26 runs the past three days in sweeping the Rays. Boston already has gotten a look at Harvey. They faced him five days ago getting two runs and six hits off him in 4 2/3 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill for Boston, which is why this total opened at less than double-digits. Rodriguez had a strong 2018 season, but he missed last year and has yet to pitch this season. He's backed by a horrendous bullpen. Baltimore's Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. Good weather, too, with temperatures in the 60's and the wind blowing out to left at 11 mph.
04-07-21	Jazz v. Suns UNDER 224.5		113-117	Loss	-109	13 h 41 m	Show
New Orleans and Phoenix are a combined 73-26. Record-wise, they are the two best teams in the NBA. So this is a huge game and ESPN is on hand to televise the matchup. Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker are outstanding scorers. But these teams know how to play defense. The Jazz rank No. 3 in defensive scoring holding foes to 107.2 points. They also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They haven't given up more than 107 points in seven of their last nine games and not more than 114 points during any of their past 10 games. The Suns are the No. 5 defensive team in the NBA holding opponents to 107.7 points. They rank fourth in 3-point defense and have held opponents to 112 points or less in eight of their last 10 games. When the teams had their lone meeting this season back on New Year's Eve in Utah, there were a combined 201 points scored with the Suns winning, 106-95. This has all the makings of a playoff-caliber intensity type of matchup.
04-07-21	Avalanche v. Wild +170		3-8	Win	170	15 h 35 m	Show
The Avalanche is a blistering 13-2 in their last 15 games. They are off a 5-4 road win against Minnesota this past Monday night. But I'm going to get involved with the Wild at this generous price because the Wild are a great home team and will be extremely motivated for this matchup. Minnesota had won 11 consecutive home contests before falling to the Avalanche. Among the Wild's home victories during this span were two against the Golden Knights and one against Colorado. The Wild outplayed the Avs in the first period and especially in the third period during Monday's contest. But they couldn't overcome a horrendous second period. This will be just Colorado's fourth away matchup during its last 16 games. So the majority of the Avs' hot 13-2 mark has occurred at home. Colorado is a far more mundane 8-6 in its last 14 road contests. The Avs are high-scoring, but Minnesota has the necessary defensive talent and schemes to frustrate them.
04-07-21	Diamondbacks v. Rockies -109	Top	0-8	Win	100	15 h 15 m	Show
Mad-Bum is turning into just Bum. OK, that is being too hard on Madison Bumgarner. He's not a bum, but he's certainly also not the pitcher he was during his prime with the Giants when he was throwing 94 mph. Bumgarner gets the start here at Coors Field, the best hitting park in the majors. The price is right to fade him especially with the Diamondbacks' bullpen in a state of flux with closer Joakim Soria out with a calf injury. Bumgarner went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA last year, permitting an astonishing 66 baserunners in only 41 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks signed him to a huge contract hoping his fastball would return and his command would improve. So far that hasn't happened. His velocity still is down and he hasn't regained his command. That was evident again in Bumgarner's first start when he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in four innings against the Padres opening day. That game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, too. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela didn't pitch well either in his first start this season. He was tagged for seven on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings by the Dodgers, who could have the best offense in baseball. I have more confidence in Senzatela bouncing back than Bumgarner. Senzatela turned a corner last season going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA. I like the Rockies' lineup better than the Diamondbacks, especially with Arizona missing injured shortstop Nick Ahmed and outfielder Kole Calhoun.
04-07-21	Pelicans +9 v. Nets		111-139	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
It's easy to look at the Pelicans and see a string of key players hurt and a 26th-ranked defense. There's also a fatigue factor as New Orleans is playing without rest and for the fifth time in seven days. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to finally get back Kevin Durant, who has missed the past 23 games. However, the combination of a large point spread, James Harden being out with a hamstring injury and the Nets being a horrible favorite put me on New Orleans. The Pelicans are short-handed in the backcourt with Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker out with injuries. Brandon Ingram is questionable. So he may not play either. But Zion Williamson, who has emerged as a high-percentage shooting, all-around monster player, is back from a thumb injury. Lonzo Ball is playing well. Eric Bledsoe is a capable guard and recently signed Isaiah Thomas is available. He played 25 minutes scoring 10 points against the Hawks on Tuesday night. Durant figures to be rusty. He probably won't log a lot of minutes. The Nets may even come into this matchup overconfident based on their opponent and finally getting Durant back while having Kyrie Irving. The oddsmaker seems to be in love with the Nets. The Nets haven't returned this love going 1-9 ATS the past 10 times they've been chalk.
04-06-21	Predators -150 v. Red Wings		3-2	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
Nashville is playing its best hockey of the season winning nine of its last 11 games. This includes a 7-1 home win against the Red Wings from March 25. Little chance of Nashville taking the Red Wings lightly, though, after Detroit stunned defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay. The Red Wings beat the Lightning, 5-1, on the road this past Sunday taking advantage of Tampa Bay going with a third-string goalie. That stopped a Detroit 17-game road losing streak to the Lightning. The Red Wings still could be celebrating. This is Detroit's first home game since March 28. The Predators last played on Saturday. They have held their last seven opponents to 10 goals. Only once have they surrendered more than two goals in a game during this span.
04-06-21	Bulls v. Pacers +1	Top	113-97	Loss	-103	8 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series.
04-05-21	Baylor v. Gonzaga -4		86-70	Loss	-115	31 h 19 m	Show
So Baylor and Gonzaga do get to meet after all after their December matchup had to be cancelled. They were the two best teams back then and they still are the two best teams in college basketball. Here's the difference though: Gonzaga can survive if it doesn't play an "A" game, or doesn't shoot well. Baylor can't. The Bulldogs had their brush with elimination, but they held off UCLA in overtime. The Bruins came in with their "A" game, but it wasn't quite enough against one of the best college teams of all-time. That's what the Bulldogs are. Baylor is very good, too. I just don't put them in Gonzaga's class. Each team has their stars. Gonzaga, however, has more weapons, can score better inside and is superior on the boards and at the free throw line as Baylor makes just 68.6 percent of its free throws.
04-05-21	Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5		86-70	Win	100	31 h 18 m	Show
Yes, I'm on the planet. I know Baylor and Gonzaga have great offenses. That's why the total is set so high. I can find more reasons, though, to go Under rather that count on both teams to hold up their high offensive standards. Baylor's tremendous defense in the NCAA Tourney is getting overlooked. The Bears have held their five opponents to an average of 60 points. Gonzaga has an above average perimeter defense. UCLA hit a blistering 58 percent from the floor against the Bulldogs in scoring 81 points during regulation. That was highly unusual. I don't see it happening again. The Bulldogs held their previous four NCAA Tourney foes to an average of 64.2 points. This is a neutral court matchup with the game being played at spacious Lucas Oil Stadium, a converted football field with a difficult shooting background.
04-05-21	Flyers v. Bruins OVER 5.5		3-2	Loss	-106	15 h 36 m	Show
The Bruins were averaging just 2.4 goals during their last five games until their matchup against the Penguins this past Saturday. There were 12 goals produced in that one with Boston winning, 7-5. Boston stars David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand were in top form contributing a combined five goals while playing on different lines. Now the Bruins host Philadelphia, the worst defensive team in the NHL allowing 3.4 goals per game. The Flyers have given up 3 or more goals in 16 of their last 18 games. The Over has cashed in 11 of their past 14 games. Boston has been missing starting goalie Tuukka Rask. The Bruins' backup goalies could be hitting a wall. Boston has surrendered 13 goals in its last three games. The Bruins also are down Brandon Carlo, one of their top defensemen. He's out with an upper-body injury.
04-05-21	Pirates v. Reds OVER 9		3-5	Loss	-115	16 h 53 m	Show
Two young unproven pitchers throwing at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with the wind blowing out to left and a single-digit total. Yep that's what we have in this matchup and it spells Over the total for me. Pittsburgh is going with JT Brubaker. He was 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA last season as a rookie. The Reds have started the season hot offensively scoring 27 runs, including six homers, in three games against the Cardinals and their respectable pitching staff. Cincinnati is pitching rookie Jose De Leon, who pitched six innings last season. De Leon gave up 12 runs on a combined 17 hits/walks during that short span. The weather forecast is for wind blowing out to left field at 9-10 mph. Monday Free Play Rays minus $1.17 at Red Sox It appears the 24-36 Red Sox of 2020 wasn't a mirage. Boston really is this bad. How else to explain opening the season by getting swept at home by the Orioles? These losses weren't especially close either. Baltimore outscored Boston, 18-5. Perhaps this is an overreaction to the Red Sox and maybe the Orioles are an improved team. Having Trey Mancini back certainly is a plus for Baltimore. But I do know this: The Red Sox aren't nearly in the class of Tampa Bay. So laying this short price with the Rays makes plenty of sense to me. The Rays didn't play Sunday. A rare day off on a Sunday and a strong plus for a team that relies heavily on a deep bullpen. Tampa Bay did lose, 12-7, to the Marlins two days ago after winning the first two games of that series. The Rays finished last season 18-5 after losing in their previous game. They also have enjoyed tremendous success at Fenway Park beating the Red Sox in 13 of their past 16 visits to Boston. The starting pitching matchup is Michael Wacha versus Nick Pivetta. I'm not fond of either pitcher. I'd prefer Wacha given a choice. But this is not a starting pitcher-driven handicap for me. I don't expect either Wacha or Pivetta to be around too long. It comes down to the Rays being the much superior team, the Red Sox already struggling and perhaps mentally affected and this being a low enough price to back the road favorite.
04-04-21	Grizzlies v. 76ers -3	Top	116-100	Loss	-110	9 h 40 m	Show
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday.
04-04-21	Indians -124 v. Tigers		9-3	Win	100	9 h 8 m	Show
Cleveland's Aaron Civale is one of those below-the-radar pitchers that I am high on this season. I believe Civale will be one of the more improved pitchers this season. Civale hasn't had trouble with the Tigers in the past going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in four career starts with two of those wins occurring at Comerica Park. The Tigers are going with Tarik Skubal. He could be good in a couple of years, but right now Skubal is learning his craft. He was 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA as a rookie last season.