Iowa State plays outstanding defense and catches Texas in a sandwich spot. 

The Longhorns just ended a four-game losing streak to Oklahoma in dominating fashion winning, 49-0. Texas faces unbeaten Oklahoma State next week. 

Iowa State has a bye next week. So the Cyclones should be going all out. The Cyclones give up the eighth-fewest points in the nation at 13.7. They rank 11th in total defense holding foes to 227.5 yards per game. 

The Cyclones have been in every game. They are 3-3 with their three defeats coming by an average of 3.6 points. Two of their losses occurred to ranked teams. Look for them to hang in against Texas. 

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. But I don't think they should be favored in this game with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Blake Snell.

Gonsolin had a great year with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA. However - and this is a big however - he's thrown only two innings in the majors since Aug. 23 when he went on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Gonsolin figures to be rusty and on a pitch count putting a lot of pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that is largely untested in postseason action.

Snell is a solid pitcher. He enters this game in outstanding form with a 1.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. Snell has a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 39 2/3 lifetime innings against the Dodgers.

The Padres gained much needed confidence against this opponent by defeating the Dodgers in LA on Wednesday to even the series at 1-1.

It's been a week and I still haven't recovered from the stench of last Thursday night's NFL game when the Colts beat the Broncos, 12-9, in overtime. I wouldn't blame Roger Goodell - or put it past him - if he secretly made sure there is more offense in this Thursday game. Amazon Prime Video must have real buyer's remorse having shelled out a reported $1.2 billion per year to acquire the Thursday night broadcasts.

Now we get what looks like another stinker, the Commanders against the Bears. Tough to get involved with a side here. I'll hold my nose and go Over this total. It's an extremely low number given how the game has become so unfairly skewed toward the offense. Fortunately for viewing purposes, Jerome Boger and his inept crew of excessive flag throwers won't be the officiating crew here. They'll be doing their part to ruin the Jaguars-Colts game.

Carson Wentz has thrown the second-highest amount of passes. Justin Fields has thrown the fewest passes of any quarterback who has started more than two games. Look for Wentz to throw fewer passes and for Fields to throw more passes. That will make both of them more effective.

Wentz actually looked very good the first two weeks of the season when he went against the Jaguars and Lions. The Commanders have averaged only 11.6 points during their last three games going against better defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans. The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense and 22nd in defensive total yards. That's going against three of five offenses that were rendered weak at the time because of the situation: 49ers going with inexperienced Trey Lance on the road in a monsoon, Texans and Giants, who had both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured against Chicago.

Wentz is a cripple shooter. He's not good against elite defenses. However, he's fully capable of putting up good numbers against weak-to-mediocre defenses especially when given the benefit of a decent running attack. Power back Brian Robinson has returned to the Commanders' lineup bolstering their rushing balance. Wentz has 10 TD passes. Only four QB's have thrown more.

Keep in mind the bar is set low with this short total.

Cooper Kupp has 49 receptions. Justin Fields has 49 pass completions. Maybe Fields never will be a good enough downfield passer to cut it in the NFL. But Chicago needs to find that out. It's been five weeks now. The Bears' offensive line is not as terrible as perceived. It's actually held up well. The Bears finally started to open things up more after falling behind 21-3 to the Vikings on the road last Sunday. Chicago actually went in front, 22-21, before losing on a Minnesota touchdown with 2:26 left. Fields nearly engineered a successful late drive that could have tied the game, but his receiver was stripped of the ball at Minnesota's 39-yard line following a 15-yard completion.

That come-from-behind effort, though, should boost the Bears' confidence in Fields and the offense. Fields threw for a season-high 208 yards against the Vikings, completed 71.4 percent of his throws and had a passer rating of 118.8. The Commanders rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.6 points a game. They have just one takeaway.

Once again, the bar is set extremely low on this total. So I'm going Over.

There's no secrets at this late stage of the baseball season. The teams and pitchers are all good.

I just see a short lay price on getting the Braves at home down 1-0 in their National League Division Series.

The last time the defending world champion Braves lost on consecutive days at home was way back on April 23-24.

The Phillies got to a weakened Max Fried on Tuesday building a 7-1 lead. Yet the Braves almost pulled it out before losing, 7-6.

The pitching matchup today is Zach Wheeler versus Kyle Wright. This pro-Braves play isn't directed against Wheeler. Both are excellent pitchers.

It's based on the resilient Braves in bounce-back mode at what I see is a shorter-than-expected lay price. Atlanta is 42-13 in its last 55 home games.
That's a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Braves have defeated the Phillies 11 of the past 15 times they've hosted them.

There's a certain randomness to this opening night matchup between the Bruins and Capitals because of injuries. Boston won't have Brad Marchand while the Capitals are missing Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson and perhaps T.J. Oshie. There are others missing but those are the big names. 

Randomness is good for the underdog. So is a strong road record, which the Bruins had last season going 25-13-3. Washington wasn't a strong home team either finishing 19-16-6. 

The Bruins are expected to have Jeremy Swayman in net. He played his best on the road with a 13-6-2 record, 2.08 GAA and a .926 save percentage. Darcy Kuemper is set to make his Capitals debut. He had an excellent season last year, but now is with a new team with new defensemen. So there could be an adjustment period. 

Boston has defeated Washington in six of the last seven meetings, including going 2-1 versus the Capitals last season. 

The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers.

This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger.

Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA.

By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings.

So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close.

No Tyreek Hill, no problem. The Chiefs' offense is just as deadly this season without Hill due to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and stronger wide receiving and running back depth.

The Raiders have three sacks and three takeaways in four games. Aside from Maxx Crosby, they don't have any big-play defenders. They certainly don't have enough depth in the defensive backfield to effectively slow down the many receiving targets that Mahomes has.

The Chiefs are averaging 37.4 points during the eight games Mahomes has played against the Raiders. This includes last season when the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points versus Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, though, will do its share, too, to make sure this total goes Over. Derek Carr has never had a wide receiver as good as Davonte Adams. The Raiders' offensive line has shown positive signs of coming around and Josh Jacobs is off his finest game of the season. He may be the best running back on the field. Daniel Carlson may be the second-best kicker in the NFL next to Justin Tucker.

Kansas City just gave up 31 points, 373 passing yards and 27 first downs to the Buccaneers last week. Tampa Bay entered that game averaging just 17 points in its first three games.

This has been an Over series with the last four going above the total.

After starting slow against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals have gotten back on track rolling past the Jets and Dolphins. 

The Ravens have yet to get on track. Something isn't right with them. They've blown 21 and 17-point leads at home to the Dolphins and Bills. Baltimore is down to its third-string offensive left tackle and its defense has struggled under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. 

Cincinnati's offensive line has been sharper in protecting Joe Burrow during the past two weeks. During this span, Burrow has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals own a huge wide receiving edge.

The Bengals gained a lot of confidence from whipping the Ravens twice last season, 41-17 and 41-21. 

The Bengals are on extra rest having played on Thursday during Week 4. They are 6-0 ATS as a road 'dog the past six times and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games. 

The Falcons are the last unbeaten point spread team in the NFL. They won't be after Sunday. I envision the Buccaneers putting together their first complete game of the season. If they do, the Falcons won't stand a chance.

Tampa Bay held the Cowboys, Saints and Packers to a combined 27 points. That's an average of nine points. The Buccaneers are going to be in an ornery mood after losing, 41-31, at home to the Chiefs. No weather distractions this week for the Buccaneers.

Take away Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons are the easiest offense the Buccaneers have faced so far. Marcus Mariota is averaging just 10 completed passes during his last two games. The Falcons lack the downfield passing attack to come from behind if a backdoor cover is needed. Kyle Pitts is the Falcons' top weapon - and he's underutilized.

Getting healthier on the offensive line and Mike Evans back from suspension was a big boost for Tampa Bay's offense last Sunday. The Buccaneers should be in better shape at wide receiver this week, too, giving Tom Brady more options. The Falcons rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.3 points and 25th in total defense allowing 386.3 yards per game.

This is the Buccaneers' get-right game.

The Saints return home from London in circle-the-wagons mode on a three-game losing streak. Andy Dalton is likely to start again, but Alvin Kamara is back to do the heavy lifting, which should ease Dalton's burden. 

The Seahawks have the second-worst defense in the league behind only the Lions. Kamara should be in line for a huge game against a Seattle defense yielding 5.4 yards per run and five all-purpose TD's. 

Geno Smith has played better than expected - so far. Keep in mind that his one superstar performance was against the Lions. The Seahawks were crushed when they stepped up in competition against the 49ers. Their other games were against the Broncos, Falcons and Lions.

New Orleans gives up the fifth-lowest completion rate and ranks in the top 10 in fewest yards per pass attempt. I see Smith returning to his game-manger, turnover-prone ways that have marked his career. 

I'm going to pounce on going Over 40 1/2 in the Giants-Packers London game with the belief that either Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor will be able to play for the Giants.

If that's the case, this total is way too low.

The Packers are getting better on offense each week as their offensive line rounds into shape and Aaron Rodgers gets more in sync with his new rookie wide receivers. Rodgers has Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon - perhaps the best running back tandem in the league - at his disposal along with several veteran receivers.

Green Bay is going to have to contend with a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, who has 463 rushing yards. That's more than 21 NFL teams. The Packers allowed the Patriots to average 5.1 rushing yards per carry on 33 attempts last week.

South Carolina is giving up an average of 46 points a game during its two SEC matchups, which were against Georgia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks have played easy opponents during their past two games. Now they go back into SEC competition. 

Chris Rodriguez is an elite running back for Kentucky. He's back in the lineup and should do well against a South Carolina run defense that ranks 106th. Kentucky's star QB Will Levis is fine, too, after hurting his hand last week. South Carolina lacks the necessary pass rush to both Levis. 

The Gamecocks are averaging 35.6 points per game. They have a pro prospect at QB in Spencer Rattler. He leads a balanced attack. South Carolina has scored 56 and 50 points, respectively, during its last two games going against Charlotte and South Carolina State. Kentucky is much better on defense than those two teams.

However, the Wildcats only have four takeaways. So I see South Carolina holding up its end in getting this total Over. 

Clemson may not be as up as it should be for 1-3 Boston College. The Tigers won a wild double overtime victory against Wake Forest, 51-45, two weeks ago on the road and then took care of North Carolina State at home, 30-20, last week. The Tigers are at Florida State next week. So this looms as a flat spot for them.

Boston College and its heralded but disappointing QB, Phil Jurkovec, finally showed something last week upsetting Louisville, 34-33, last week as a 13 1/2-point 'dog. The Eagles produced 454 yards of offense. Boston College has a tremendous history of covering games in October going 16-5 ATS (76%) the past 21 times.

Clemson had a tough time at home against Boston College the past two years winning, 19-13, as a 15-point favorite last season and prevailing, 34-28, as a 24-point favorite two years ago.

Air Force leads the nation in rushing averaging 379 yards. Utah State can't stop the run. The Aggies allow 5.3 yards per run, which ranks 117th. They are giving up 36.4 points per game. 

Utah State's new QB, Cooper Legas, made his first start last week against BYU. He threw a pair of TD passes and the Aggies scored 26 points.

Air Force has played against weak passing teams. The Aggies play up-tempo. This combination should produce points for Utah State. 

James Madison has been most impressive in its transition from FCS to FBS this season going 4-0 SU and ATS. The Dukes are averaging 44.8 points, which ranks eighth in the nation.

Arkansas State can score, too, especially at home scoring 58 and 45 points, respectively, this season. I see a shootout here similar to what the Red Wolves were involved in three weeks ago when they lost, 44-32, to Memphis.

Both teams have excellent quarterbacks. Todd Centeio is a dual threat for James Madison. He's accounted for 13 TD's with 913 yards passing and another 252 yards rushing. Arkansas State QB James Blackman leads an attack that averages 34.6 points.

This is a big revenge spot for Florida after it lost to Missouri, 24-23, on the road last year. That was the fifth straight time in this series the Under covered.

I see another Under in this matchup.

Missouri's defense was impressive in holding Georgia to 26 points last week. The Tigers could be looking to stay on the ground more knowing they may be without their top wide receiver, Dominic Lovett.

Florida has gone Under in seven of its last 10 home games. The Gators' defensive statistics are skewed because they've played Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee.

Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points.

This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons.

Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches.

So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country.

Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points.

I want the home Blue Jays going for me in this opening game of their playoff series against the Mariners. 

The Mariners haven't made a postseason appearance since 2001. So they lack playoff experience. I give a slight edge to Toronto in starting pitchers with Alek Manoah against Luis Castillo and a huge edge to the Blue Jays on offense.

Manoah is on a strong roll with a 0.94 ERA and 0.85 WHIP during his last seven starts. Castillo has a 3.17 ERA with the Mariners after coming from Cincinnati. I regard Castillo as a good pitcher. But I consider Manoah a great pitcher. 

The Mariners are below average offensively averaging 4.2 runs a game, which ranked them 18th. 

The Blue Jays scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They also finished with the highest batting average, third-best slugging percentage and OPS mark. 

I have far more confidence in Toronto's lineup than I do Seattle's. 

The defenses of these two teams are way ahead of their offenses making this total too high.

The Colts are last in scoring at 14.3 points a game. Indy's offensive line has performed below expectations and Matt Ryan is off to a slow start. Ryan has committed seven turnovers in four starts and been sacked 15 times. The Broncos have a top-six defense. Patrick Surtain has emerged as a lock-down cornerback.

Making matters potentially worse for the Colts is an ankle injury suffered by Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday. Even if he manages to play, Taylor won't be 100 percent especially on a short week.

Denver is averaging only 16.5 points. Russell Wilson also is off to a slow beginning with his new team. The Broncos just lost their best running back, Javonte Williams, to a season-ending knee injury. That means a heavy dose of mediocre Melvin Gordon, who has a fumbling problem. Gordon has lost the ball in five of his last 44 carries.

The Colts rank sixth in total defense and rush defense.

Just five days ago, Adrian Sampson faced the Reds. He held them to one run on three hits in seven innings. The Cubs won, 6-1. Chicago has won during each of Sampson's last three starts. His ERA is 1.42 during this span.

Sampson is flying below-the-radar. He's yielded only six earned runs during his last six starts.

The Reds managed a 3-2 victory against the Cubs on Tuesday. Cincinnati is 62-99. The Reds don't want to finish with 100 losses. But the Reds are in this position for a reason - they're terrible. The Tuesday win against the Cubs was just the Reds' third in their last 12 games.

Cincinnati hasn't broken the 3-run barrier in each of their last dozen games. The Reds are averaging two runs per game during this span.

So the Reds are likely going to need a tremendous pitching performance from starter Graham Ashcraft. I wouldn't count on that. Ashcraft is really struggling down the stretch with an 8.10 ERA in his past three starts. Ashcraft shouldn't expect much help from a Reds bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA in the majors.

It's going to be difficult for the Brewers to get excited about this game. They just got eliminated on Monday from playoff contention.

Milwaukee also is facing Zac Gallen. He's been one of the top pitchers during the second half of the season. Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Gallen's ERA during his last three starts is 2.21.

Contrast this with Brewers starter Eric Lauer. He has a 7.84 ERA during his past three starts. Gallen is an ace. Lauer, who is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA, is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.

The Brewers have been mediocre for quite a while now going 28-31 in their last 59 games.

I doubt the Padres have their full focus for this game after celebrating their first full-season playoff berth since 2006. The Padres clinched that spot yesterday. 

The Giants have been playing much better as they close out their season, winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Padres would be 3-8 in their last 11 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.

The pitching matchup is John Brebbia versus Joe Musgrove. Brebbia will serve as the opener. He's worked one inning in each of his last nine starts, not giving up a run during this span. He holds a 1.80 ERA in five relief appearances against San Diego. 

Musgrove is having a strong year for San Diego with a 10-7 record and 3.03 ERA. 

However, this is an action play for me based on the Giants' hot streak and San Diego being in letdown mode.     

Flying back home from the West Coast after a series with the Padres, the White Sox can't be too excited to wrap up a very disappointing season with this series against the Twins.

The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games. They have lost seven in a row at home.

Minnesota is in an excellent situational spot to beat the White Sox and their 36-year-old starter, Johnny Cueto, who has hit the wall with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.

The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has been below the radar. Ober has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. He has a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts and has dominated the White Sox in two starts this season with a 1-0 record and 0.73 ERA.

The Buccaneers have given up the fewest points in the league. Tom Brady is off to a slow start. The Chiefs are off a loss to the Colts in which they were held to 17 points.

So I get why this total is low given the caliber of these offenses.

I just find it too low.

The Chiefs had scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games until last week's loss to the Colts. The Chiefs were hurt offensively by some questionable official's calls and missed kicks from a backup kicker. They have since switched kickers with Harrison Butker still not ready.

The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense. No argument there. But it's not as dominant as the numbers show. Tampa Bay's opponents were the Cowboys, who are thin at wide receiver and in the offensive line, turnover-prone and banged-up Jameis Winston and the Saints and the ground-oriented Packers, who are in wide receiver development.

Kansas City doesn't have superstar Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs, though, have better wide receiver and running back depth than they've had before to compensate. They are two levels higher than any offense the Buccaneers have faced so far this season.

The Buccaneers are not facing an elite defense taking on the Chiefs. Brady should get back into rhythm with the Buccaneers getting healthier in the offensive line and at wide receiver. Mike Evans coming off suspension is huge.

The Raiders are 0-3. But they could be 3-0. The Broncos are 2-1, but could be 0-3. 

So don't be too surprised that Las Vegas is favored against Denver. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks and defeated the winless Texans and disappointing 49ers by a combined eight points needing fourth quarter comebacks. 

The Raiders have yet to play a complete game. Las Vegas goes on the road to meet the Chiefs next week. So this clearly is a circle-the-wagons game for them.

Denver's defense has put up some outstanding statistics. The quarterbacks the Broncos have faced are Geno Smith, Davis Mills and a rusty Jimmy Garoppolo. Derek Carr is a cut above those quarterbacks and has two elite receiving weapons to challenge a Denver secondary that is minus star safety Justin Simmons with Davante Adams and Darren Waller.

Russell Wilson has had only one good drive in three games for the Seahawks. He has just two TD passes and 22 yards rushing. He sure looks like he has regressed. Maxx Crosby is one of the better pass rushers in the league. Las Vegas also expects to get back from injury a pair of underrated defenders, linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Tre'von Moehrig. 

The Raiders have owned the Broncos winning and covering six of the last seven in the series. 

The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game.

Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain.

The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out.

I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown.

Both teams have surprised on offense. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points, rank fifth in total yards and have the NFL's leading rusher, Nick Chubb. 

The Falcons are averaging 26.7 points. They've faced a pair of respectable defenses, too, in the Rams and Saints. 

A key is each team's quarterback has performed better than many expected. Jacoby Brissett has completed 74 percent of his throws with three TD passes during his last two games. Marcus Mariota has completed 63.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, on the season. He's given the Falcons a running dimension they haven't had at quarterback during the long Matt Ryan era. 

The Falcons have three playmakers - Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Browns permitted washed-up Joe Flacco to have his best game in a decade two weeks ago allowing him to throw for 307 yards and four TD passes. The Browns lost linebacker Anthony Walker to a season-ending injury last week and won't have premier pass rusher Myles Garrett, who was involved in a car accident this week. 

The Browns' dominant offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons. Atlanta yields 27 points a game and ranks 26th in total defense. 

The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line?

The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers.

I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense.

Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season.

Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow.

Louisiana-Monroe has played two road games this season. The Warhawks lost by 42 points to Texas and fell to Alabama by 56 points in those away matchups.

Arkansas State certainly isn't the caliber of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. But the Red Wolves are more than a touchdown better than Monroe at home.

The Red Wolves have covered the past 12 times against the Warhawks.

The Warhawks rank 116th in scoring averaging 18.3 points. They are 112th defensively giving up 34.8 points.

Yet Monroe could actually be in a letdown spot after upsetting UW-Lafayette, 21-17, at home last Saturday as 9 1/2-point 'dogs.

Arkansas State has a huge quarterback edge with James Blackman. The Red Wolves rolled over Grambling, 58-3, at home opening week. They've been on the road for their next three games. Those were all losses. But the Red Wolves had tough competition playing Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion.

Now they finally get to play at home again. The Warkhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.

Look for Arkansas State to make it 13 straight covers against Monroe.

Kansas made a great coaching hire with Lance Leipold last year. That's becoming even more clear this season as Leipold has the Jayhawks at 4-0 and close to Top-25 status.

The Jayhawks have been doing it with offense averaging 47 points behind QB Jalon Daniels.

Iowa State is the opposite. The 3-1 Cyclones rely on a stingy defense that ranks 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense.

This is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones had their Big 12 home conference victory streak snapped at 11 losing to Baylor, 31-24, last Saturday. Now the Cyclones have to travel to Kansas where the Jayhawks are on the verge of a national breakthrough.

This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. 

South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. 

East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. 

The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. 

Both teams should enjoy great success on the ground given the quality of their ground attacks and vulnerability of the opponent's rush defense. 

Georgia State plays fast. The Panthers have the shortest time of possession of any team in the country. The Panthers rank 37th in rushing. Army ranks 114th in run defense. The Over has cashed in eight of Georgia State's last 11 non-conference games. 

The Panthers are giving up 38.3 points pre game. They rank 119th in total defense. Army is the No. 3 rushing team in the country. 

Just two weeks ago, Georgia State surrendered 42 points to Charlotte. The 49ers average 19.5 points in their four other games. That certainly bodes well for Army. 

The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December.

Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too.

The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game.

The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances.

There's more than meets the eye in this matchup. The Cardinals are home for the first time since Sept. 18. They return as National League Central Division champions. So their concentration level could be off especially facing the lowly Pirates. It's also their first home game since Albert Pujols hit his 700th big league homer. That could mean pregame festivities to celebrate and more distractions for the Cardinals.

The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo versus Jack Flaherty. Name recognition certainly goes with Flaherty. But, again, more than meets the eye here.

Flaherty is on the comeback trail. He's 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts this year. Flaherty last pitched Sept. 22. So he could be rusty. The Cardinals probably aren't going to stretch him out either trying to balance rest and with getting prepared for their upcoming playoffs.

Oviedo won't lack motivation being a former Cardinal. He pitched brilliantly in his last start, blanking the Cubs on three hits in seven innings last Saturday.

Both starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen and Framber Valdez, are having huge seasons. Both, though, are not in the best of form, which is needed if this low total is going to stay Under. I'm willing to say that each team should be good for at least three runs here. So I'm going Over.

Rasmussen is 10-7 with a 2.85 ERA on the season. However, he's lost three in a row. He has a 4.96 ERA during this stretch. Rasmussen faces a Houston squad that is fourth in the majors in homers and eighth in runs.

Valdez sports a 16-5 record and 2.69 ERA. However, he's off his worst of the season in which he gave up seven runs (four earned) on 11 hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings versus the Orioles this past Saturday.

The Mariners are going hard to earn their first playoff spot in 21 years. The Rangers are playing the string out. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games.

Texas could be without shortstop Corey Seager, too. He's day-to-day with a bruised forearm. Seager leads Texas in homers with 32.

Rangers starter Jon Gray is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this year.

Seattle starter Marco Gonzalez is reliable at home where his ERA is 3.36.

Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game.

It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries.

The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays.

The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games.

This has been a crazy series so far with the Orioles winning, 14-8, on Monday and the Red Sox prevailing, 13-9, on Tuesday.

That was just the Red Sox's third win in their last 10 games.

The Orioles have lost seven fewer games than the Red Sox, who are headed for this first losing season under Alex Cora.

Orioles starter Dean Kremer could restore order. He's been fantastic in his last five starts with a 3-0 record and 2.16 ERA.

The Red Sox are going with Rich Hill, who is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA at home. The 42-year-old Hill could be hitting the wall. He has a 5.96 ERA during his last five starts.

Wednesday Free Play

Tigers minus $1.25 hosting Royals

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.

I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.

Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.

I find this total to be at least a run too short. The pitching matchup is Luis Cessa versus Bryse Wilson. 

Cessa has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. The Pirates are averaging 5.2 runs in their last five games.

Wilson has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. 

The Pirates have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Reds have the third-highest bullpen ERA. 

The wind is blowing out to left at 7-8 mph. 

Totals Under 7 are reserved for excellent starting pitchers. Lance Lynn and Bailey Ober don't fit that description. 

It's not difficult at all envisioning both teams scoring at least three runs apiece in this matchup. 

Lynn is 7-6 with a 4.02 ERA. He's made two starts against Minnesota this season and has a 9.90 ERA to show for it. The White Sox rank 20th in bullpen ERA. The Twins rank 12th both in batting average and home runs. 

The White Sox are averaging only two runs per game during their last five games. But they should have a breakout performance here against Ober, who has a 4.23 ERA in six career starts versus the White Sox. Ober has a 4.50 ERA during his past three starts. 

Despite their current struggles, the White Sox have the third-highest batting average in baseball. Minnesota's bullpen is average, ranking 16th in relief pitching ERA.

The Under has won only twice during the last 12 meetings between the two teams. 

The oddsmaker has overreacted to no Dak Prescott with this low of a total. 

Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup quarterback. He's not a stiff. He has skill position talent to rely on. Ezekiel Elliott looks much better than he did last season. Tony Pollard is a home run threat and drawing more playing time. The Cowboys also get back Michael Gallup to upgrade their wide receiving corps. The Giants aren't likely to have Leonard Williams, their best defensive lineman. 

The Giants are far more credible on offense under Brian Daboll. New York's offensive line has improved and Saquan Barkley is running the best he has since his rookie season, finally free of injuries. Barkley entered Week 3 leading the NFL in rushing yards.

It doesn't take much in today's NFL, with its rules skewed toward offense, to get above a total less than 40. 

Wrong team favored. The Orioles are seven games better than the Red Sox. Baltimore still is in the playoff hunt. The Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention with their 2-0 loss to the Yankees Sunday night.

Boston has lost five in a row. The Red Sox have no incentive. They had to play last night in New York and sit through a 98-minute rain delay. The Red Sox haven't played at home in eight days so their concentration could be off returning from being on the road.

The Orioles are still fighting. They've been the most profitable team from a betting standpoint. Baltimore just played a tough series against the Astros. This is a major step down in class.

The pitching matchup favors Baltimore, too. The Orioles are going with veteran Jordan Lyles, who is 11-11 with a 4.50 ERA. Lyles is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but he rates an edge on overmatched Boston rookie Connor Seabold, who is 0-3 with a 10.47 ERA. Seabold has never won in the majors. He's been tagged for 11 runs in his last two starts spanning 7 2/3 innings.

This should be a loose game between two bottom feeders.

The Reds are going with washed-up veteran Chase Anderson, who has a 5.21 ERA in his return to the majors. Cincinnati's bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA.

The Pirates are starting Roansy Contreras, who has a 5.14 ERA in his last three starts. The Pirates lead the league in most errors committed and also have the highest bullpen ERA.

Both offenses should be aided by the weather conditions with the forecast calling for the wind to be blowing out to left at 12-13 mph.

Right now the Broncos aren't very good. They lost to the Seahawks and had to struggle at home to get past the Texans. Russell Wilson hasn't looked any better than he did last season when he had an off-season failing to meet his lofty standards of past seasons. New Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett's decision making has come under serious scrutiny. Discipline has slipped, too, with the Broncos committing 25 penalties.

The 49ers may have caught an unintended break with Trey Lance suffering a season-ending broken ankle. That's bad for Lance and the 49ers long-term. However, short-term they now will have more experienced, reliable and accurate passing with veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. It's easy to knock Garoppolo, who certainly doesn't have Lance's mobility and big-play ability, but San Francisco is 31-14 in his starts. That's a 69 percent winning percentage.

Denver's secondary already has taken a massive hit with safety Justin Simmons out with a thigh injury and Patrick Surtain questionable with a shoulder injury. The Broncos are stepping way up in class after going against the pop-gun attacks of the Seahawks and Texans. It's an added plus for the 49ers if George Kittle is ready to make his season debut as expected He's arguably the best all around tight end in football.

San Francisco has an elite defense. It held the Bears and Seahawks each to fewer than 220 yards. The 49ers know Wilson well from having played him twice each year in the NFC West Division for 10 years. The Broncos haven't meshed yet with their new quarterback by dropping passes, committing way too many penalties and failing to score TD's in the red zone

The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now.

But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago.

Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up.

The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense.

Emerging skill position talent, above average offensive line and a still-terrible defense make the Lions an attractive Over team. The Lions have sailed well above the total in each of their last four games, including both games this season.

I see that trend continuing against the Vikings, whose offense is unshackled with a coaching switch from old school Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell.

The Lions are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 35.5 points. Detroit's already good offensive line gets back center Frank Ragnow. The Vikings have aging and slow cornerbacks. They also are likely to be minus star safety Harrison Smith, who suffered a concussion this past Monday.

The Vikings should feast at home versus a bottom-three Lions defense that is allowing 32.5 points and 425.5 yards per game.

I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. 

Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. 

The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. 

I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years.

Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas.

The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season.

But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival.

Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings.

After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation.

Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings.

But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback.

The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over.

This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified. 

Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total. 

TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense. 

The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season. 

The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games. 

The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high.

Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition.

Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range.

The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games.

This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game. 

Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over.

North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that.

The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game. 

San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo.

The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State.

The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah.

Perhaps swayed by the Tigers being one of the teams here, the oddsmaker opened this total too short. I'm expecting at least nine runs to be scored.

How's that?

The White Sox are facing a mediocre lefty starter while they are going with Lucas Giolito at home.

Giolito has a winning record and 158 strikeouts in 143 2/3 innings. These numbers hide the fact that Giolito has been a major disappointment this season with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His ERA balloons up to 6.61 when pitching at home.

The Tigers scored a combined 16 runs in their previous two games before their last one.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for Detroit. He's 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. Worse, he's a southpaw. The White Sox have the highest batting average in the majors against lefties at .279. They also rank No. 1 against southpaws in on-base percentage.

The White Sox just saw Rodriguez six days ago. Rodriguez has a 4.91 ERA during his past three starts. Detroit's bullpen was underrated earlier in the season, but it has regressed in part because of overwork. It no longer is dependable.

Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.

Since the start of June no team has played better than the Braves, who are 71-29 during their last 100 games.

However, the Braves are coming off a rare, sloppy performance, a 3-2 loss to the lowly Nationals on Wednesday. Look for Atlanta to bounce back today against the Phillies, losers of five of their last six games.

The Braves have clinched a playoff berth, but are chasing the Mets for the top spot in the NL East.

Not only are the Braves the superior team, but they hold a huge pitching edge with Max Fried going against Ranger Suarez.

Fried has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts. He is 6-2 on the road with a 2.60 ERA.

Suarez is 3-4 at home with a 4.70 ERA.

The oddsmaker opened this total short. The marketplace is betting it up and I'm in full agreement.

The Blue Jays have scored four or more runs in all but four of their last 23 games. This looms as a bullpen game for the Rays with JT Chargois and Ryan Yarbrough, who has a 4.33 ERA, figuring to see multiple innings.

The Rays should do their fair share of damage going against Jose Berrios, who has been terrible when pitching on the road with a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 14 away starts. Berrios has a 4.83 career ERA versus the Rays in seven starts.

The Dodgers have squared off against division-rival Madison Bumgarner for 14 years. LA catches the 33-year-old Bumgarner on the downside of his career. Bumgarner is 6-15 with a 5.01 ERA. He has surrendered five or more runs in seven of his last nine starts with a 7.82 ERA during this span. He has a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings against the Dodgers this season.

LA leads the majors in runs scored while ranking in the top four in all of the major offensive categories.

So not a huge surprise if the Dodgers cover this Over just by themselves.

But the Diamondbacks should pitch in facing Dustin May, who is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This will be just his sixth start. He's likely to be on a pitch count.

Both teams carry a high bullpen fatigue rating following yesterday's doubleheader.

Kyle Freeland doesn't come to mind when rating the best pitchers in the National League. Freeland, though, has been excellent this month emerging as Colorado's top starter. He has a 0.93 September ERA in 18 1/3 innings giving up just two runs in three starts. 

The Giants have a below average offense. The Under has cashed in 10 of its last 12 games on grass. 

Carlos Rodon was San Francisco's original starter. But he was scratched. So this is going to be a bullpen game beginning with John Brebbia, who is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 17 career appearances against Colorado. He hasn't allowed an earned run to the Rockies in 5 1/3 innings this season. 

I don't mind a bullpen game from the Giants because each of their pitchers should be fresh and able to go all out for strikeouts, which is important for an Under at Coors Field. 

Memo to oddsmakers regarding the San Francisco Giants. This is 2022 not 2021. The Giants are a mere shell of the team that won 107 games last year. They are eight games below .500 this season. They have lost nine of their last 13 games and have bagged their season with morale at low ebb after just getting swept by the Dodgers.

The Giants should not be favored against the Rockies at Coors Fields with a pitching matchup of Jake Junis against Chad Kuhl.

Junis is 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA this season. His ERA goes up to 5.35 when pitching on the road. Coors Field is the best hitting park in the majors. Junis is not in good current form either, going 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kuhl is a bottom of the rotation type starter, too, but he's pitched respectfully at Coors with a 3-3 record and 4.67 ERA in 10 starts there this season. The Rockies have been huge money-makers during Kuhl's last 25 home starts going 17-8. The Giants have been swinging cold bats failing to reach five runs in 12 of their last 13 games.

Colorado has won seven of its last 10 games. The Rockies are 40-34 at home and have the highest home batting average at .284. The next closest team is the Red Sox, who bat .269 at Fenway Park.

Both teams look improved. But there's a class difference in the trenches that make the Eagles the superior team. I also like Jalen Hurts better than Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has home field advantage, too. 

Hurts is close to being a top-10 quarterback - if he isn't already - given his mobility and addition of A.J. Brown to go with two speedy running backs, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, one of the better tight ends in the league. The Eagles may have the best offensive line in football. 

The Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to prop up glorified game manager Cousins. Minnesota's offensive line, though, is not nearly the caliber of the Eagles' offensive line.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense, drafting stud defensive tackle Jordan Davis and signing Haason Reddick, James Bradberry and Kyzir White. The Lions had trouble running last week when Davis was on the field. Reddick is one of the top pass rushers and Bradberry an elite cornerback. 

The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play.

Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory.

The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers.

Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC.

The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests.

Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams.

Despite being plus 5 in turnover ratio, the Steelers needed overtime to get past the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow. And the only reason the Steelers even managed to win that game was because the Bengals lost their deep snapper in the second half, which caused stud kicker Evan McPherson to get an extra point blocked and miss an easy field goal.

The Steelers did lose T.J. Watt in that game. Watt is the NFL's reigning defensive player of the year, a difference-maker.

The Patriots are a work-in-progress, too. But at 0-1, I see them bouncing back to beat the Steelers. I trust Bill Belichick in this spot. He easily can put together a game plan against Mitch Trubisky, a bad Steelers offensive line and banged-up workhorse running back Najee Harris, who is dealing with a foot injury.

The Steelers were forced to roll out on nearly every pass play because their offensive line can't pass block. Trubisky missed a number of throws like he's done in past performances. The Patriots had three sacks in their loss to the Dolphins. New England held Miami to 13 points on offense as one Dolphins touchdown came on defense.

Pittsburgh has failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a point spread cover.

Carson Wentz lit up a bad Jacksonville defense last Sunday. He's capable of doing that given the underrated receiving weapons he has to go with Terry McLaurin in Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, a healthy Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield.

The Lions' defense is as bad as Jacksonville's defense, if not worse. Detroit is giving up an average of 39.6 points in its last three games going back to last season.

Detroit has firepower, though. Jared Goff plays his best when he's home on a fast indoor track and the conditions are pristine. That's the case here.

The Commanders yielded 22 points to the inefficient Jaguars last week, who continually made mistakes on offense. The Commanders didn't really stop the Jaguars. The Jaguars stopped themselves. Washington remains without its best interior defensive player with Chase Young out.

These teams have as many defensive stars as they do offensive stars. It's the offensive stars and offensive linemen, though, that are the banged-up parts of these teams, though.

The Buccaneers traditionally struggle against New Orleans. The last time these teams met, the Saints shut out the Buccaneers, 9-0. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in its last four regular-season meetings against New Orleans. Tom Brady turned the ball over 10 times and was sacked 13 times during these four games.

Brady could be in for another long day as the Buccaneers have cluster injury problems in the offensive line and wide receiver. Every one of Tampa Bay's wideouts is dealing with some sort of injury. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play. The Bucs are forced to start two inexperienced offensive line starters, too, because of injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is Tampa Bay's only reliable offensive lineman.

The Saints have offensive line issues, too. Their offensive line has regressed because of injuries and defections. Alvin Kamara also is dealing with sore ribs.

Both teams have defensive coaches now as their head coach. The Saints go from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, who was either defensive coordinator or interim head coach during the past four games between the two teams, while Todd Bowles is the Buccaneers head coach replacing Bruce Arians. Payton and Arians were each well-respected for their offensive acumen. Allen and Bowles are sharp, too, - but on the defensive side.

This game is all about offense. Neither team has much defensively. There were a whopping 105 points scored in last year's game.

Memphis has the passing attack and speed to score at will against a vulnerable Arkansas State secondary. The Tigers scored 55 points and produced 680 yards of offense in beating the Red Wolves, 55-50, last season.

Arkansas State has enough offense to contribute to this total going Over.

This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon.

You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State.

Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there.

Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers.

Georgia Tech isn't explosive enough to trade points with Mississippi ranking 124th in passing. The Yellow Jackets are back to trying to control the ball via their ground game. Georgia Tech has played decent run defense, though, and the Rebels apparently aren't fully sold yet on USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart.

So I'm expecting more running plays than perceived, which is good for an Under with a total in this high range. Mississippi does have a pair of good running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The strength of Georgia Tech, though, is a defensive line that in two games versus Clemson and Western Carolina has recorded seven sacks and 15 tackles for losses.

Note that Georgia Tech plays its home games on grass. Mississippi is a turf team. The Rebels have gone Under eight of the last nine times when playing on grass.

There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first.

Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games.

BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua.

Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor.

But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week.

Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line.

There's a false perception surrounding Virginia. Just because the Cavaliers have a decent QB, Brennan Armstrong, doesn't mean they have a good offense. The Cavaliers are averaging 18.5 points during their first two games. They have a new offensive philosophy of grinding the ball on the ground instead of letting Armstrong make plays through the air. Some of this strategy is caused by Virginia lacking playmakers around Armstrong and having a very bad offensive line.

Old Dominion is averaging 20.5 points in its first two games. The Monarchs got thrown a curve when Dave Patenaude, their offensive coordinator last season, resigned just weeks before the start of the season. The Monarchs don't make many big plays on offense. Their run defense, though, is decent. Old Dominion held opposing teams to 134.2 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing TD's last year.

The Under has cashed in seven of Virginia's last eight home games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times when Old Dominion has met a non-conference foe.

Teams can't help but have high and lows during the long baseball season. The Yankees were experiencing a low point, but have since rebounded to win eight of their last 10 games. They are averaging eight runs a game during their last four games, all victories.

The Brewers looked like a solid playoff team entering August. But they are a scuffling 19-20 in their last 39 games.

The Yankees hold a starting pitching edge here with Frankie Montas facing Adrian Houser. New York also has a strong bullpen advantage. Yankee relief pitchers have a 2.94 ERA. That's the second-lowest ERA in the majors. The Brewers' bullpen ERA is 3.94, which ranks 16th. The Brewers' relief corps isn't nearly as good minus closer Josh Hader. Devin Williams is now their lone dependable reliever.

Oh, yes, the Yankees also have the most dangerous hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge. He leads the majors by a wide margin with 57 homers. Judge is batting .462 during his last 52 at bats and is on a 15-game on-base streak.

Montas has settled down after a rough patch when he first came to the Yankees. He has a 3.89 ERA. Houser is a borderline bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.61 ERA.

Both teams were idle Thursday. The Yankees' bullpen is fresh. New York is 21-8 following an off day.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

My first look is to the Under whenever the Marlins are in action. Why not? Miami has scored three or fewer runs in 15 of its last 18 games. The Marlins are in rebuild mode, playing youngsters who can't hit.

An Under makes sense here given this total in a pitching matchup of Noah Syndergaard versus Pablo Lopez.

Syndergaard has dominated the Marlins with a 7-2 record and 2.30 ERA in 14 career starts. Now he's not the same pitcher he was with the Mets, but he's crafty enough to hold punchless Miami down. He has a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Marlins this season.

If you exclude a freakish 10-run game against the Rangers, the Marlins are averaging two runs per game during their last five games.

Lopez is good enough to hold the Phillies in check, especially throwing at pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park. He has a good lifetime record against Philadelphia with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts.

Weather shouldn't factor as there is just a slight wind - and it's blowing in.

I'm going to get behind the Orioles at a reasonable price facing Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters all season. 
The Orioles are battling for a wild-card spot. The Nationals have the worst record in the majors at 49-93. 

Corbin has done more than his share to saddle the Nationals with the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.06. Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.30 ERA. Washington has a bottom-10 bullpen. 

The Orioles are starting Tyler Wells, who is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA. Wells is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two appearances against the Nationals, including one start. Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said he won't be afraid to use Austin Voth and his top bullpen arms to secure this win since the Orioles are idle on Thursday. Baltimore has the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the league. 

The Tigers were no match for the Astros in the first two games of this series losing by a combined 10 runs. Don't look for anything to change in the series finale. It's a day game pitting Christian Javier against rooke Tigers lefty Joey Wentz.

This has all the makings of another lopsided Houston victory.

The Astros are an elite team. They are especially tough in day games and facing southpaws. Houston is 37-13 in day games this season. The Astros also are 42-14 the past 56 times they've gone against a lefty starter. Wentz has an 8.10 home ERA.

The right-handed Javier has a 3.01 ERA. That shrinks to 1.80 when he pitches during the day. The Tigers rank last in the league in runs and homers. They have lost 41 of the past 58 times when going against a righty starter.

What are the ramifications from a totals standpoint following the Aces' 67-64 Game 1 victory against the Sun in the WNBA Finals? 

We have the lowest total on an Aces game all season. All three regular season matchups between these teams finished with a total above this number. The Sun and Aces averaged 181.3 points during their three regular season matchups. 

So was the meager 131 combined points in Saturday's game an outlier, or indicative of the kind of low-scoring game we will get today? 
Game 1 was a feeling out process. The Sun emphasized a physical, defensive style meant to slow and disrupt the Aces, who love to push pace. It worked. Yet the Sun still lost. 

Both teams shot poorly from the floor. The Sun were held to 37.8 percent from the floor, while the Aces made fewer than 40 percent of their field goals. 

I see a more loose game today. The Aces were the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.4 points. However, they also gave up the fourth-most points in the 12-team league. The Sun can take advantage of that with their height advantage. Connecticut was the No. 3 scoring team averaging 85.8 points. The Sun, though, were below average in defensive field goal percentage. 

Both teams are due to shoot better, especially Aces All-Star guard Kelsey Plum, who missed eight of nine shots from the floor in Game 1. Plum was cold in the Aces' semifinal series against the Storm, too. But the shots and looks were there for her. She's overdue for a big performance. 

I made this total a full run higher with a large part of that reasoning based on Kris Bubic being one of the starters.

Bubic is 2-11 with a 5.40 ERA. He shouldn't even be in a big league rotation. Bubic's ERA during his last three starts is even higher at 6.06. The Twins have scored four or more runs in four of their last five games.

Minnesota starter Joe Ryan is better than Bubic, but he's not in good current form with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts.

The Over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.

Unlike some teams, the Diamondbacks haven't quit at this late stage of the season. They have won 10 of their last 16 games. Arizona is swinging hot bats, too, scoring five or more runs in six of its last eight games.

Ryne Nelson makes his second big-league start. He was phenomenal for the Diamondbacks in his first start throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-0 victory against the Padres a week ago. Nelson allowed only four baserunners and struck out seven.  

Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is enjoying an outstanding season. But Anderson doesn't have a good history against the Diamondbacks. He has a 5.22 career ERA and 1.46 WHIP against them in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns.

Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread.

The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them.

Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich.

Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach.

The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game.

The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year.

Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league.

Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively.

The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group.

Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense.

This is a terrible matchup. But it sets up a winning play on the Under. 

New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies have put up 12 points total against Nevada-Reno and Minnesota. They had less than 100 yards total offense against the Gophers.

UTEP hasn't broken the 25-point barrier in eight of its last nine games. The Miners have scored 13 points in each of their two games against North Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico State's coach Jerry Kill is well known for his slow pace. He completely plays for field position. UTEP's defensive strength is run defense.

The Miners also prefer to play slow. This total is low, but not low enough.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover put this total out shortly after the game came on the board. He made it his Non-Conference Total of the Year based on tremendous line value and a strong handicap. Within 24 hours, though, the total had been bet so far up that Stephen took the game down because the line value had been lost. However, the handicap still holds.)

Two bad defenses against fast-paced offenses. That's a winning combination for an Over in this matchup between Florida International and Texas State. 

How bad is Florida International? The Panthers had to go overtime to nip Bryant, a bad FCS program, 38-37. Bryant had eight plays of at least 20 yards against the Panthers. The Panthers are in total rebuild mode under new coach Mike MacIntyre.

A key takeaway from that game was the Panthers taking less than 20 seconds between running plays. That's a tremendously fast pace. 

Texas State is up-tempo, too. The Bobcats found themselves a good QB in Layne Hatcher, who was the Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas State before transferring to Texas State. The Bobcats' problem is once again defense. They surrendered 38 points to Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack lost all of their skill position stars from last season and managed only 23 points against New Mexico State in their first game. 

Virginia is going to find it much tougher going against Illinois after opening with an easy win against Richmond. The Illini have a tough defense especially against the run. Neither Wyoming nor Indiana could effectively run on the Illini. 

The Illini are a ground-and-pound team. They have an excellent running back in Chase Brown. But I'm not nearly so enamored of their QB, Tommy Devito. 

Virginia has a much better QB in Brennan Armstrong. However, the Cavaliers lost each of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. So an early season road game - their first of the year - against a stout Illinois front four is not ideal. 

Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup.

South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. 

The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. 

Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. 

The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. 

So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. 

The David Cutcliffe era is finished at Duke. It's replaced by defensive-minded Mike Elko. The Blue Devils looked sharp defensively in Elko's head coaching debut shutting out Temple, 30-0, last week. Duke held the Owls to 179 total yards and 12 first downs. Another takeaway from that game was the Blue Devils' conservative offensive style scoring just six points in the second half after building a 24-0 halftime lead.

Now the Blue Devils meet a physical Big Ten defense in Northwestern. The Wildcats have had extra time to prepare having last played in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 27, beating Nebraska, 31-28, in that game.

Duke hosted Northwestern last year and won, 30-23. Now it's Northwestern's turn to host. The Wildcats are a strong Under team at home where the low side has cashed 72 percent of the time during their last 75 home games.

I'm down on Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski and the rest of the Wildcats' skill position players rating them among the worst in the Big Ten.

This total is headed downward so there is an urgency to play it now. I can understand the marketplace getting involved in the Under. It makes sense in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Dylan Bundy. Both pitchers are below-the-radar pitching well.

 Quantrill has a 1.80 ERA in his past half dozen starts. He's backed by a Guardians bullpen that has been the best in the league since early August and is rested after the team was idle on Thursday.  Bundy has a 2.17 ERA during his last six starts. He's 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six lifetime games against the Guardians, including five starts.  There have been fewer than eight runs scored in 15 of Cleveland's last 17 games. 

Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson.

The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved.

Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games.

Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense.

The total is large here, but not big enough given the matchup. 

Buffalo's defense rates among the best going by last year's statistics. Truth be told, though, it's not as good as it's ranking, especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a knee injury. The Bills fatten their defensive numbers by steamrolling easy competition. Buffalo played only two playoff teams during the regular season - the Patriots and Chiefs before they got rolling. 

The Bills are really going to miss White in trying to deal with Cooper Kupp, who had maybe the finest receiving season in NFL history with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams upgraded their No. 2 wideout position, too, signing Allen Robinson. Also Cam Akers, LA's most talented running back, has proclaimed himself healthy. The Rams finished in the top-nine in scoring and yards last season. They should do even better this season. 

I'm more sold on the Bills' offense compared to their defense. Buffalo's passing attack is a fine oiled machine right now. Josh Allen is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Buffalo scored the third-most points in the NFL last season. The Bills could be even more dangerous with the emergence of speedster Isaiah McKenzie in the slot and the pass-catching talents out of the backfield of rookie James Cook to go with elite wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. 

The Rams may have the top cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey. But their strength is star power not depth. They don't have enough quality players in the secondary to stay up with all of Allen's targets. Allen also neutralizes Aaron Donald because of his tremendous mobility. The two most explosive offenses the Rams faced during their last 11 games were the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay scored 36 points. Tampa Bay produced 27 points. 

Another plus for the Over is the game being played on a fast track at SoFi Stadium, which has artificial turf. This is the first game of the season. It's nationally televised. The league wants points to be scored that's why rules have been skewed to favor offense. I can't imagine the NFL wants its opening showcase game to be littered with a lot of offensive holding penalties either. 

The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago.

Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus.

The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest.

The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times.

Both the Twins and Yankees have well above average offenses. Thanks to Aaron Judge, the Yankees lead the majors in homers. Judge has smacked 55 home runs. 

So unless the pitching is dominant, this just isn't a big enough total. I don't see dominant pitching here with both starters, Sonny Gray and Nestor Cortes, returning from injuries. Both teams carry bullpen fatigue, too, following Wednesday's doubleheader.

Gray is one of many former Yankees pitchers who had trouble pitching for New York. Gray, who left his last start this past Saturday early due to hamstring tightness, pitched for the Yankees four years ago going 15-16 with a 4.51 ERA in 41 appearances, including 34 starts. He has a 4.55 ERA in five career starts versus the Yankees. 

Cortes has been out since Aug. 21 because of a groin injury. He had trouble when he faced Minnesota on June 8 giving up four runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Cortes has a 4.32 ERA in four career appearances against the Twins. 

Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in at 6-8 mph at Yankee Stadium.