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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-03-18	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	5-3	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Look for the Astros to come out fired-up in this kill spot. Houston has lost three in a row. The Astros were ilde on Monday so they will be rested and ready here. Houston has won 26 of its last 36 away matchups and is 10-4 versus the Rangers this season. Dallas Keuchel goes for Houston. He has better peripherals than his 4.22 ERA shows. He ranks first in the American League in groundball-to-fly ball ratio - a key when pitching at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park - and ranks third in the AL in soft contact percentage. Long-time minor leaguer Austin Bibens-Dirkx is going for the Rangers. I don't see the 33-year-old Bibens-Dirkx faring well against an Astros lineup that has the third-highest batting average in the majors and ranks in the top-seven in runs and homers.
07-02-18	Rays v. Marlins +119	Top	2-3	Win	119	20 h 53 m	Show
There are several things to keep in mind about this matchup that go beyond the surface. The first is Tampa Bay being 8-1 in its last nine games. Impressive yes since the Rays compiled this current streak against the Yankees, Nationals and Astros. However, those games all were in Tampa. Now the Rays take to the road where they have lost 11 of the past 13 times. It's a bad spot for the Rays off a 3-2 Sunday win against the Astros and likely to take the lowly Marlins lightly. Miami, though, has a winning record in its last 11 home games. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus Wei-Yin Chen. Eovaldi is coming off a 1-0 victory against the Nationals this past Tuesday in which he allowed just one hit in six innings. Prior to that outing, Eovaldi had given up 16 runs in 23 1/3 innings spanning four starts. Eovaldi is a tease. That's his big league pattern. One great game, three bad ones. The Marlins are familiar with him, too. Eovaldi pitched for Miami from 2012-14. Here is another statistic that is misleading in this instance. Chen has a 6,14 ERA. Yet Miami has won 11 of his last 15 home starts. That's because Chen pitches very well at Marlins Park where he has a 2.30 ERA this season. Сhen is backed by perhaps the most underrated closer in baseball, Kyle Barraclough. He hasn't been scored on during his last 21 appearances spanning 20 2/3 innings. Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games.
07-01-18	Giants v. Diamondbacks -134		9-6	Loss	-134	6 h 9 m	Show
I see Zach Godley getting the better of southpaw Derek Holland. The Diamondbacks are 18-10 versus lefty starters. The Giants have lost 18 of their last 26 road games. Godley has pitched his best at Chase Field, which will be a new experience for Holland, who has never pitched there. Godley has a 2.89 ERA at home this season. The Diamondbacks have provided him with excellent support all year averaging 4.6 runs when Godley pitches. Holland is a fifth-starter type. He holds a 4.24 ERA.
07-01-18	Indians -122 v. A's	Top	15-3	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
I don't see the A's sweeping the Indians. Not with Frankie Montas. The league has figured him out and he has yet to adjust. Montas has a 7,.20 ERA in his last three starts giving up 12 earned runs and 24 hits in 15 innings during this brutal stretch. Cleveland ranks No. 3 in homers and sixth in runs. Mike Clevenger is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has a 3.03 ERA on the season. The Indians are not a good road team. But they've had two days to get adjusted to the Oakland Coliseum and have a big starting pitching edge here.
06-30-18	Red Sox -136 v. Yankees	Top	11-0	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
The Yankees may win this series against the Red Sox, but they aren't beating Chris Sale today. Sale is the premier lefty in the American League. He's pitching at his highest level, which is saying a lot. Sale is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA . He has 43 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 28 innings with opponents batting .155 against him during this time frame. His fastball is being clocked at a season-best 97 mph this month. The Yankees usually fare well versus lefties. But they have difficulty against Sale, who owns a 1.73 career ERA mark in 16 appearances against the Yankees. Sale is at least two levels, if not three levels, above Sonny Gray, who hasn't been good in three years. Gray is having a below average season this year with a 4.93 ERA. He gave up four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings during his last start this past Saturday on the road against the Rays in a 4-0 loss. Tampa Bay is 26th in homers and 25th in runs. Boston is first in runs and batting average and second in homers. The Red Sox are 43-18 versus righthanded starters. Gary is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA versus the Red Sox since joining the Yankees. He faced the Red Sox back on April 12 and was blasted for six runs on seven hits while working a season-low three innings.
06-29-18	Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5	Top	3-1	Loss	-100	12 h 49 m	Show
Who is Max Muncy? He has the fourth-most homers in the National League with 17, 10 of which have come this month. The Dodgers have tied their franchise-best in homers for a month with 53 in June. If you discount a 2-1 win this past Monday against the Cubs, the Dodgers are averaging 6.1 runs in their last six games. The Rockies have been raking, too, scoring the second-most runs this month in the National League. The Over is 20-6-2 (77 percent) in Colorado's last 28 games. I don't see a pitching matchup of Tyler Anderson versus Rich Hill slowing down these offenses. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA. This isn't just a Coors Field thing either as his road ERA is 4.08. The Rockies' bullpen has imploded this month with their upper tier relievers looking bad. Colorado's bullpen ERA has nearly an 8.00 ERA so far in June. The 38-year-old Hill can't get into a rhythm because he can never stay healthy. He has a 6.10 home ERA and 5.30 ERA on the season. Opponents have scored three or more runs off him in five of his last seven starts. Hill also has a poor track record against the Rockies going 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in four career starts. The Over has cashed in seven of Hill's past eight starts.
06-29-18	Winnipeg v. Hamilton OVER 58		17-31	Loss	-109	50 h 48 m	Show
Jeremiah Masoli is becoming an elite CFL quarterback and Hamilton is rolling offensively. Going back to last season, the Tiger-Cats have scored 30 or more points in six of their last eight games. Masoli has continued his strong play from last season. He leads the CFL in passing yards. Going back his last seven games, Masoli has a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has passed for 300 yards in each game. Masoli had a big game when these teams last met last October completing 27 of 33 throws for 338 yards and two touchdowns as the Tiger-Cats ran up 30 points. Masoli has three excellent wide receiving targets in Luke Tasker, Brandon Banks and Jalen Saunders. They've already combined for 31 receptions in Hamilton's two games. Winnipeg, sparked by rookie quarterback Chris Streveler, is averaging 33 points in its two games this season. Streveler leads the CFL with six TD passes. The Over has cashed in 23 of the Blue Bombers' last 32 games. Winnipeg has been an especially great Over team on the road going above the total in 13 of its last 16 away matchups.
06-28-18	Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57	Top	14-24	Win	100	32 h 56 m	Show
This is the highest over/under on the Week 3 Canadian Football League card. It's justified if you look at how strong these offenses looked last week. Ottawa scored 40 points against Saskatchewan. Calgary reeled off 41 points against Toronto. But what's being overlooked by this high total is Calgary's tremendous defense and the situation the Stampeders are in. Calgary has allowed only 21 points all season. They are No. 1 in pass defense and run defense. The Stampeders find themselves in a tough spot here. They just played at Toronto on Saturday. So this is a very short week for them. It's such a short week they only were able to get in one practice, which did not go well, according to sources. The short week is going to hurt Calgary's offense more than its defense especially this being so early in the season. Ottawa's defense was sharp in its 40-17 victory versus the Roughriders last Thursday. The Redblacks were idle opening week. So they are going to be the fresher team. Most of the Roughriders' passing yards came in garbage time as Ottawa entered the final quarter leading, 33-14. Calgary has a history of going Under early in the season. The Under has cashed in 79 percent of the Stampeders' past 24 June games.
06-28-18	Ottawa +8 v. Calgary		14-24	Loss	-120	31 h 5 m	Show
This is a horrendous spot for Calgary. The Stampeders just played a great game against Toronto this past Saturday and now have to play again on Thursday. They were able to hold just one practice this week and that practice didn't go well, according to reports. Ottawa played Calgary twice last season, both early in the season. The Redblacks tied the Stampeders, 31-31, at home and lost 43-39 at Calgary. The Redblacks are 4-1 in their last five games, including winning impressively in their opening game this season against the Roughriders, 40-17. The Redblacks have covered 20 of their last 26 road games. Calgary often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Stampeders have failed to cover in six of their last seven games.
06-28-18	Angels v. Red Sox -120		2-4	Win	100	9 h 33 m	Show
The price has come way down so I'm going to fade the marketplace and a lay a short price with the far superior team.. Boston has the best win percentage in baseball. The Red Sox are going for the series sweep. The Angels are reeling, losers of 12 of their last 16 games and five in a row. They have multiple injuries and an unreliable bullpen. They also are going with rookie righthander Jaime Barria. He has pitched respectable, but not as much as the marketplace thinks with this huge drop in price The Red Sox are a monster 42-18 against righthanded starters. They hit righties better than any team. Boston should not be taking the Angels lightly either after nearly blowing a 6-0 lead last night. The early marketplace actitivity was against Boston, too, because the Red Sox are starting fill-in southpaw Brian Johnson. The Angels, though, have lost the last seven times they faced a lefty starter. Johnson is talented enough to give the Red Sox five respectable innings. The Red Sox offense and bullpen can take care of the rest. Boston is averaging eight runs per game in its last six games. The Red Sox have won the last six times they've started Johnson.
06-28-18	Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7	Top	4-0	Loss	-110	11 h 50 m	Show
Zach Greinke has pitched much worse on the road with a 4.94 away ERA this season. His velocity is down. He's been getting away with trick pitches, which the Marlins should be aware of. The Marlins are starting righty Trevor Richards, who has a 4.91 ERA. His ERA is even worse in days games at 5.09. The Over is 11-3-2 the past 16 times the Diamondbacks have gone against a righthanded starter. Tom Hallion is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the last two years.
06-27-18	Pirates v. Mets -111		5-3	Loss	-111	8 h 39 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Ivan Nova's recent strong pitching. He's always been bad on the road, which is the case again this season with a 5.10 away ERA. Nova has been anything but a slump stopper, too. Pittsburgh is 1-10 the past 11 times Nova has started following a team loss. The Pirates are 1-6 in their last seven games. They have stopped hitting averaging only 2.2 runs in their last eight games. Zach Wheeler has been looking better for the Mets holding three of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
06-27-18	Mariners v. Orioles OVER 9.5		8-7	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
I see these two offenses combining for double-digits with a pitching matchup of Wade LeBlanc versus Alex Cobb, especially with the wind blowing out ot left at 15 mph. LeBlanc is a career journeyman who had been pitching well above his norm with the Mariners. Regression to the norm, though, began to show up in his last start. LeBlanc gave up six runs on 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. Cobb is brutal. He's 2-9 with a 6.56 ERA. He has a 6.81 ERA in seven career starts against Seattle. The Orioles have bullpen woes and are down two arms with Darren O'Day and underrated Richard Bleier out. Bleier has the lowest ERA on the team at 1.93. Seattle's two top relief pitchers, Edwin Diaz and Alex Colome, each carry a fatigue rating having both pitched during each of the last two days with Diaz pitching in three of the last four days. Gary Cedarstrom is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the last two years.
06-26-18	Twins -110 v. White Sox	Top	4-8	Loss	-110	10 h 0 m	Show
Lance Lynn is back in good form and healthy. The result has been a 4-1 record and 1.73 ERA during his last six starts. The price is low enough to back Lynn and a rested Twins bullpen against the rebuilding White Sox. Lynn is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in four career starts versus the White Sox. Chicago is going with Renaldo Lopez. He has been one of Chicago's better pitchers, but the White Sox still are 1-5 in his last six starts.Lopez was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs (four earned) and six hits and four walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Indians.
06-26-18	Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5		0-7	Win	100	10 h 35 m	Show
I see this as a kill spot for the Astros after they lost to the Blue Jays with Justin Verlander on the hill Monday. Houston has won eight of its last 10 victories by more than one run. Charlie Morton has become a very good pitcher since joining Houston. He's 9-1 with a 2.74 ERA this season. He owns a 2.77 ERA in two starts versus Toronto this season. The Blue Jays have still lost 10 of their last 14 road games despite last night's stunning win. This could be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays if not a give-up game. They are giving Ryan Borucki his first big league start due to injuries to Aaron Sanchez and Jaime Garica. The Blue Jays' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and is minus suspended closer Roberto Osuna.
06-26-18	Reds v. Braves OVER 9		5-3	Loss	-112	8 h 11 m	Show
Both teams are swinging hot bats. Cincinnati is averaging 7.1 runs in its last eight games, while Atlanta is averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games. This matchup should produce double-digit runs, too. It's a hot muggy night in Atlanta with high humidity. Those conditions favor the hitters. There is a chance of rain, which could turn this into a bullpen game. That would make it ugly as neither team has a strong bullpen especially the Braves minus injured closer Arodys Vizcaino. Matt Harvey goes for Cincinnati. The Mets were right to give up on Harvey, who has a 5.66 ERA on the season and is 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 13 career starts against the Braves. Atlanta starter Annibal Sanchez is due for regression. That regression started to come in his last start where he surrendered four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings against Toronto.
06-25-18	Indians -119 v. Cardinals	Top	0-4	Loss	-119	11 h 10 m	Show
The Indians are starting to play up to expectations as one of the superpowers in baseball. Cleveland has won seven in a row with all the victories coming by three or more runs. The price is low enough to get involved with the Indians again in a pitching matchup of Mike Clevinger versus John Gant. Clevinger is in an outstanding form going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his last 21 1/3 innings spanning his past three starts. He rates a strong edge on Gant. The Cardinals have lost in Gant's last five starts. Gant wouldn't be starting if it weren't for an injury to Michael Wacha. Gant has a 6.00 ERA on the season. St. Louis' power is way down this season as the Cardinals rank last in doubles and triples.
06-25-18	Padres v. Rangers UNDER 9.5		4-7	Loss	-108	10 h 21 m	Show
The Padres have scored four or fewer runs in 15 of their last 18 games. They rank in the bottom-five in runs, batting average and homers. It's not just playing half of their games at Petco Park either. They are just a bad offensive team. The Under has cashed in 10 of their past 12 away games. Now San Diego draws the Rangers' best pitcher, Cole Hamels. He has a 2.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 10 starts. Hamels has gone six-plus innings, too, during his last eight starts. This means fewer innings for the vulnerable Texas bullpen to get involved. The Under has cashed in 75 percent of Hamels last 21 starts going 15-5-1. The Padres are pitching Joey Lucchesi. The rookie was showing some nice potential before going on the DL with a hip strain. He was not sharp in his return from the DL this past Wednesday. Expect better now that Lucchesi has knocked off some rust. The Rangers have never seen him. Both pitchers should be aided by a wind that will be blowing in at 15-16 mph.
06-24-18	Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9	Top	8-2	Loss	-120	6 h 16 m	Show
Given some of their big name hitting stars, it's surprising the Cardinals and Brewers both rank among the bottom-12 teams in runs scored. On closer inspection, though, maybe it shouldn't be a surprise. St. Louis is getting terrible seasons from a number of players, including Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko. The Cardinals' power is way down as they rank last in the majors in doubles and triples. They also draw the fourth-fewest walks in the National League. The Brewers' problem is they have three dead spots in their lineup - catcher with Manny Pina and the two middle infield positions with Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar. Milwaukee has been shut out a major-league high 10 times this season. The Brewers are not a strong clutch hitting team either ranking 24th with runners in scoring position. The scores of this series the past two days have been 2-1 and 3-2. Look for that same type of score in a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jhoulys Chacin. Weaver hasn't pitched well during his last seven starts compiling a 4.46 ERA. I remain high on him, though. He's a top prospect with high ceiling stuff and metrics that indicate he's due to turn things around. Teams often rest key players on Sunday. The Brewers have already announced that Lorenzo Cain won't play after he was pulled from Saturday's game because of groin tightness. Cain is the Brewers' leading hitter and also their stolen base leader. I wasn't that high on Chacin entering this year. But I have to give him his due. Chacin has been outstanding especially at Miller Park where he's posted a 2.31 ERA in six starts. Chacin is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA on the season holding foes to a .231 batting average. The Brewers have an outstanding bullpen. Their top bullpen arms are fresh meaning they could get three innings from Josh Hader and Corey Knebel if necessary. St. Louis is averaging 2.5 runs its last four games. The roof is going to be open for this game, but weather shouldn't impact the total as the forecast is for clear skies and a slight crosswind. Mike Winters is slated to be the home plate umpire. Winters has had a slight bias to the Over - except when he's been behind the plate on Sunday where the Under has cashed at a mind-boggling 70 percent rate during the past 56 instances.
06-23-18	Calgary v. Toronto OVER 52		41-7	Loss	-107	17 h 46 m	Show
This is the Grey Cup rematch and I'm expecting a high scoring game. Both offenses could have played better last week during Week 1 and the result was each team went Under the total. Calgary has tremendous firepower. The Stampeders looked much better in the second half. Calgary has excellent receiving depth and rookie running back Don Jackson flashed rushing for 87 yards while aveaging 7.2 yards per carry. Calgary has averaged 32.5 points versus the Argos during its past two road trips to Toronto. The last three games in this series played in Toronto has resulted in an average combined total of 61 points scored. Toronto has the coaching with Marc Trestman and the skill position talent, too, to put up points against a Calgary defense breaking in several new players. The Stampeders have yielded 27 or more points in four of their last six games. It wasn't a huge surprise the Argos started slow in Week 1 because their starting offense didn't get much work together during preseason. Their offense should be more in sync in this Week 2.
06-23-18	Tigers v. Indians -1.5	Top	1-4	Win	100	7 h 58 m	Show
The American League is composed of four super powers. Three of those teams are the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. The Indians are the fourth and they finally are getting into gear winning five in a row. The Indians have won their last five games by an average of 6.3 runs. They've have won their last 10 games by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs with them at greatly reduced juice in a pitching matchup of Francisco Liriano versus Trevor Bauer. The Tigers have been overacheiving, but they are starting to reach their normal regression. Detroit just doesn't have the pitching and its bottom-eight offense took a big hit with Miguel Cabrera suffering a season-ending biceps injury. Liriano hasn't pitched in four weeks because of a hamstring injury. He's winless in his last five starts. He gave up five runs on six hits, including three homers, and three walks in five innings against the White Sox during his previous start on May 26. This is the Indians' third look already at Liriano, who has a 6.10 ERA versus Clevelnd this year. Bauer entered the majors with a high ceiling and he's living up to it now with a 2.50 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings. He's backed by a rested Cleveland bullpen. Cleveland has dominated Detroit going 35-13 against the Tigers during the last three years, including 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
06-23-18	Rangers v. Twins -130		9-6	Loss	-130	11 h 3 m	Show
The Rangers have won a season-high six games in a row. Look for their streak to end today, though, in this day matchup. I don't see Texas continuing its winning streak pitching washed-up Yovani Gallardo. This will be Gallardo's second start of the season. His first game was this past Sunday against Colorado at home. Gallardo was erratic like he has been for much of the past three seasons giving up five runs on six hits and three walks in five innings. Eddie Rosario returned to the Twins' lineup on Friday and Minnesoa manager Paul Molitor indicated that Eduardo Escobar would be back starting, too, on Saturday. Escobar was limited to a pinch-hitting role on Friday after being hit in the elbow with a pitch on Thursday. Escobar and Rosario are Minnesota's two top hitters. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi has pitched well against all opponents except the Indians this season. If you discount Cleveland, Odorizzi has held 11 of 12 foes to three earned runs or fewer. He also has a strong history against the Rangers going 4-0 against them with a 2.02 ERA in six career starts.
06-22-18	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5	Top	6-2	Win	100	20 h 39 m	Show
This is too low of a total for a pitching matchup of Clayton Richard versus Chris Stratton and a Giants bullpen that lacks a consistent closer with Hunter Strickland sidelined. Richard has a 4.91 road ERA. His overall statistics have been padded by pitching at Petco Park and drawing the Marlins in two of his last four starts. Miami ranks last in runs. AT&T Park is a pitcher's park, too. However, this is evened out by the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind to be blowing out to left at 15-18 mph. A bad break for Richard, a lefthander. The Giants blasted Richard when they last saw him on May 2 at AT&T Park. San Francisco scored six earned runs off Richard in four innings getting eight hits and drawing four walks. Stratton has a 4.22 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His home ERA is 5.45 this season.
06-22-18	Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton	Top	38-21	Win	100	33 h 16 m	Show
Hamilton has become a much better team since June Jones took over. The Tiger-Cats nearly pulled the upset against Calgary last week, but Jeremiah Masoli threw a late interception and Calgary scored a touchdown while running out the clock resulting in a misleading 28-14 final. The Tiger-Cats have covered the past five times following a loss. They've also enjoyed excellent ATS success in Edmonton covering the past five times there. Edmonton had to scramble to nip Winnipeg last week, 33-30. Edmonton was the only CFL road winner during Week 1. The Eskimos host unbeaten BC next week so this is a bit of an early season sandwich spot for them. The Eskimos have failed to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. The Eskimos showed some defensive vulnerability in beating the Blue Bombers. This series has been close with each of the last six head-to-head matchups being decided by a touchdown or less.
06-21-18	Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 51	Top	17-40	Loss	-115	31 h 20 m	Show
Saskatchewan may have its best defense since Chris Jones became the Roughriders coach three seasons ago. Jones is a top-notch defensive coach so that's saying a lot. Saskatchewan held Toronto, the defending Grey Cup champions, to 19 points and fewer than 300 yards in last week's 27-19 home win. The Roughriders, though, weren't sharp on offense. The Under has won in 10 of the Roughriders' last 11 games. Ottawas was the lone team that didn't play opening week. So the Redblacks are going to be rusty and operating against a strong defense that has already played a game. Saskatchewan has a very good defensive front seven and Ottawa quarterback, Trevor Harris, still isn't 100 percent from knee and ankle injuries he suffered during preseason. Harris should start, but the Redblacks are likely to have a conservative game plan since they also have a banged-up and an unsettled offensive line. The Redblacks have been a strong Under team going 12-4-1 to the under during their last 17 games.
06-21-18	Red Sox -122 v. Twins		9-2	Win	100	12 h 57 m	Show
The Twins are going for a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox here. Boston hasn't been swept in a series all season. I don't see that changing in this matchup. This is a day game. The Red Sox have won 78 percent of their day games this season going 18-5. They also are 26-15 on the road. Minnesota is barely above .500 at home with a 19-17 mark. The pitching matchup is Rick Porcello against Kyle Gibson. Porcello has proven reliable this season, not as good as he was two seasons ago when he went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA but much better than last year. He is pitching on extra rest, too. Boston is 8-2 the past 10 times Porcello has thrown on five days rest. Porcello has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He has a solid 3.43 ERA in day games. Boston's key bullpen arms are well rested. The Twins are averaging just 2.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson is 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA at Target Field this year. Minnesota is 4-7 in his last 11 starts.
06-20-18	Rays v. Astros -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
The Rays halted the Astros' 12-game win streak Tuesday night nipping them, 2-1. That was just the Rays' second road victory in their past 11 tries. Following this game, the Rays head home after being on the road for a week. They are idle Thursday and host the Yankees in a marquee series beginning Friday. So this isn't a great spot for the Rays. The defending world champion Astros should bounce back strong here in a pitching matchup of righthanders Nathan Eovaldi versus Charlie Morton. Houston is 50-19 in its last 69 games against righty starters. I think it's a kill spot for the vastly superior Astros so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs to greatly reduce the vigorish. Eovaldi will be making his fifth start since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Eovaldi has flashed during his career, but he's still very much on the recovery trail. I don't see him ready to deal with an elite offense. Eovaldi faced the Yankees in his last start and surrendered five runs on eight hits in 7 1/3 innings. The Astros have the highest batting average in the majors and are No. 2 in runs. The Rays rank 25th in runs. Morton has thrived since joining the Astros. He's 8-1 with a 2.94 ERA this season. The Rays have struck out 10 or more times during each of their last six games.
06-19-18	Braves +102 v. Blue Jays	Top	11-4	Win	102	7 h 52 m	Show
I'm a fan of Braves rookie pitcher Mike Soroka. The Calgary native should be extra pumped pitching in Canada against the Blue Jays. Soroka has impressed during his first four big league starts with a 2.57 ERA. The Blue Jays enter this series fat and happy after a surprising sweep of the Nationals. Despite that, Toronto is not a good team. The Blue Jays are five games below .500 while the Braves sport a 42-29 mark. Toronto only is a .500 team at home, while Atlanta is 21-16 on the road. The Braves average a run higher when going against lefty starters and they draw southpaw Jamie Garcia here. The 31-year-old Garcia has had his career derailed by multiple injuries. He's now not much more than a borderline fifth starter. He's had just two quality outings during his last 11 starts. The Braves are familar with Garcia since he pitched for them last season compiling a 4-7 record and 4.30 ERA. The Blue Jays are missing suspended closer Roberto Osuna leaving their bullpen vulnerable and also remain without injured third baseman Josh Donaldson, who was their most feared hitter.
06-18-18	Mets v. Rockies UNDER 9.5	Top	12-2	Loss	-105	14 h 25 m	Show
Jacob deGrom trumps Coors Field. The record doesn't show it because the Mets can't score for him, but deGrom has elevated himself into the best pitcher in baseball talk. He holds the lowest ERA in the majors at 1.55. During his past 10 starts, his ERA is 0.87 and he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of these starts. That's insane. Against the Rockies career-wise, deGrom is 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in five starts. The Under has cashed in his past five road starts. The Rockies are pitching southpaw Tyler Anderson. The Mets are one of the worst hitting teams against lefties. New York isn't very good against any type of pitching having scored three runs or fewer in 11 of its last 13 games. The Mets are really missing their most feared slugger, injured Yoenis Cespedes. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors where he has posted a career 3.73 ERA there. Anderson has a 1.50 ERA in his one previous start versus the Mets. Both pitchers will be aided by a wind blowing in at 8-10 mph.
06-17-18	Tigers +100 v. White Sox		3-1	Win	100	6 h 41 m	Show
Southpaw Blaine Hardy has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Detroit has a winning record in his 10 appearances. Hardy has a respectable 3.55 ERA and has a chance to stay in Detroit's starting rotation. Hardy defeated the White Sox three weeks ago holding them to one run in seven innings. The White are bad versus lefties - 6-10 - and have been terrible at home going 12-23. Detroit has dominated Chicago this season beating the White Sox six of seven times. The Tigers have won the past five times in Chicago. I'm not a fan of White Sox starter James Shields, who is well past his prime at 36. The White Sox are 3-8 in Shields' starts this season. Shields has a 4.63 ERA on the year and a 4.44 career ERA in 27 starts against the Tigers.
06-17-18	Nationals -120 v. Blue Jays	Top	6-8	Loss	-120	5 h 51 m	Show
I can't see the Blue Jays sweeping the Nationals. Washington is the superior team in all aspects and has a pitching edge with Tanner Roark facing righty Sam Gaviglio. The Nationals have won 20 of their last 27 games versus righthanded starters. Roark is a solid middle-of-the-road type pitcher. He has a 3.03 ERA in 21 career interleague games, including 18 starts. Gaviglio isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting pitching rotation. He's coming off a game in which he allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the light-hitting Rays this past Monday. Gaviglio has a 7.04 road ERA this season.
06-16-18	Montreal v. BC -7.5		10-22	Win	100	72 h 40 m	Show
BC went 7-11 last season. The Lions look improved entering this season having upgraded in the trenches. New quarterback coach Jarious Jackson appears to be a good fit for Jonathon Jennings. Montreal was the worst team in the CFL last year. The Alouettes not only went 3-15, but failed to win or cover any of their last 11 agmes. They remain the worst team in the CFL and I don't see them cutting the gap enough to cover this spread. I'm not a fan of Montreal's new coach, Mike Sherman. The Alouettes looked just as bad in training camp and in their two preseason games as they did last season. Their putrid offense managed just one touchdown and three field goals in exhibition play. They don't have the playmakers and skill position depth to put up enough points to hang around. So look for the Lions to win and cover for the sixth straight time in this series.
06-16-18	Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5	Top	9-3	Loss	-110	15 h 8 m	Show
The oddsmaker has shaded the Under in this matchup, which makes sense given a pitching matchup of Fernando Romero and Carlos Carrasco. Romero has held three of his last four opponents to two earned runs. He is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day games this season. The Indians have scored four or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. Carrasco has been dominant in his last two starts giving up one run in 14 innings with a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Indians are heavy home favorites so they are unlikely to bat in the ninth inning making this an 8 1/2-inning game.
06-15-18	Toronto v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50		19-27	Win	100	53 h 18 m	Show
Early money has come on the Under and it's the right play. Saskatchewan quarterback Zach Callaros looked timid playing behind a porous offensive line during preseason. He nearly was picked off four times in the first quarter alone during the Roughriders' last preseason game. I can't see the Roughriders getting their offensive line on track so soon and they don't have the quarterbacks that can compensate. Saskatchewan always is going to be respectable on defense, though, with head coach Chris Jones. The teams combined for only 46 points during their playoff game last season. The Under has cashed four of five times when the teams have played since Jones took over as head coach for the Roughriders in 2016.
06-15-18	Toronto -135 v. Saskatchewan		19-27	Loss	-135	53 h 17 m	Show
The difference on offense between these two teams is absolutely huge. It helps put me on Toronto. The Argonauts have future Hall of Famer Ricky Ray at quarterback. He's backed by maybe the best running back in the league, James Wilder Jr., and a top-three wide receiver in S.J. Green. The Argonauts look to be in good shape right now to defend their Grey Cup title. They beat Saskatchewan by four points in the division finals last season and should be able to duplicate that feat especially given the Roughriders' problems on offense. The Roughriders are likely to go with Zach Collaros as their starting quarterback. He hasn't been good the past couple of years having lost his last 12 starts. Neither Collaros nor Brandon Bridges played well during preseason. A big reason for this was Saskatchewan's offensive ilne was horrendous. I can't see the Roughriders getting their offensive line back on track this fast.
06-15-18	Rockies +100 v. Rangers	Top	9-5	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
Texas has lost six in a row and has its worst record of the season. So, who are the Rangers calling on today to try to halt this losing skid? Yohander Mendez. Who? He's a guy who is 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA this season - in th minors. This will be his first big league start. Mendez's big league track record isn't glowing either. He's made 10 career relief appearances spanning 16 innings and has a 7.31 ERA. The Rockies are opposing him with Chad Bettis, who has a 4.40 ERA. Bettis, though, has proven he's far better away from Coors Field. He is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA this season in his road outings. Bettis should be highly motivated, too, being a native of Lubblock, Texas. A huge plus for the Rockies is the return of ace setup man Adam Ottavino from the DL. Ottavino has been one of the top relievers with a 0.95 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings. Colorado has a winning record when Ottavino has been healthy.
06-14-18	Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8	Top	2-1	Loss	-111	10 h 51 m	Show
Boston ranks either first or second in the top offensive categories. The Red Sox draw an over-the-hill Felix Hernandez and a Seattle bullpen that is good, but overworked and carrying a high fatigue rating. The Mariners are swinging hot bats They've scored 24 runs in their last four games. They have have scored four or more runs in eight of their last nine games. Dave Price is past his prime, too, like Hernandez. The Mariners have been more effective against lefties, averaging nearly one run more per game than against righties.
06-13-18	Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5		7-2	Win	100	6 h 14 m	Show
The Rockies are showing they can score runs on the road, too, and not just at Coors Field. They have scored four or more runs in 15 of their last 16 games. The Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. I expect the Rockies to keep scoring facing Nick Pivetta, in a hitter's park and with the wind blowing out to right at 12 mph. Pivetta is up-and-down and right now he's down with a 5.79 ERA in his last three starts. Only once in his last six starts has he gone past the fifth inning. The Phillies should do damage against Tyler Anderson, who has a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts and a 6.12 ERA in night games. Anderson has thrown a combined 306 pitches during his last three starts, the most by far in a three-game stretch for him this season. He could easily tire and the Rockies' bullpen is missing a key arm with Adam Ottavino out.
06-13-18	Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8	Top	5-4	Loss	-125	17 h 14 m	Show
A strong pitching matchup of Jameson Tallion versus Zack Greinke is made even better by this being a get away day game where regulars could be resting and Ryan Blakney slated to be the home plate umpire. Tallion is a promising pitcher who has in good form with a 2.79 ERA in his last three games. The Under is 12-3-1 in his last 16 road starts. Greinke has pitched far better at Chase Field where his home ERA is 1.64 this season. Both pitchers will be helped with the roof being closed at Chase Field. Having Blakney behind the plate is another big plus for the Under. The Under has won 71 percent during the past 51 games Blakney has been the home plate ump.
06-12-18	Pirates +135 v. Diamondbacks		8-13	Loss	-100	9 h 5 m	Show
There's bad blood in this series. So this isn't going to be some sleepy non-division game for the Pirates. They will be up for this matchup especially after blowing a 5-0 seventh inning lead against the Diamondbacks last night. Trevor Williams is ptiching on extra rest. He's 7-1 the past eight times he has started on five days rest. Williams was pitching better earlier in the season than he is now, but he'll be extra motivated here. He's an Arizona State alum. Williams faced the Diamondbacks twice last season and gave up two runs in 11 innings. Diamondbacks starter Clay Buchholz has been pitching well, but some regression is due for the 33-year-old, who has a fragile arm.
06-12-18	Twins -102 v. Tigers	Top	6-4	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
The Twins have dominated the Tigers beating them nine of the last 11 times. They are 5-0 in their last five games at Comerica Park. I rate Twins starter Jake Odorizzi higher than converted Blaine Hardy, who isn't likely to stick too much longer in Detroit's starting rotation. Odorizzi has a career 2.28 ERA in four starts versus the Tigers.
06-12-18	Nationals +160 v. Yankees		0-3	Loss	-100	7 h 32 m	Show
Maybe if the Yankees had Luis Severino pitching, I'd stay away from the Nationals. But that's not the case here. Washington is catching a huge price going against CC Sabathia. That puts me on the Nationals. Tanner Roark has been reliable for Washington reaching the seventh inning in all but one of his 12 starts this season. The Yankees are batting just .176 in their last four games. They just were shut out by Seth Lugo and the Mets this past Sunday night. It's not a good spot either for New York. This is the Yankees' first home game since May 30. They've played the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers and Mets during their past four series. Now they step up in class. Sabathia beat the Blue Jays in his last outing, 7-2. Before that game, though, he had allowed 16 runs in 14 1/3 innings during his previous three starts. The 37-year-old has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. The Nationals could get an added boost with Daniel Murphy set to make his season debut. The Nationals' outfield already has been strengthened with Adam Eaton back from a lengthy injury.
06-11-18	Angels -110 v. Mariners	Top	3-5	Loss	-110	14 h 7 m	Show
A healthy Andrew Heaney is a promising pitcher. A healthy Wade LeBlanc is a journeyman. Both teams have been playing well. But I see regression coming for LeBlanc, who has a 2.95 ERA, and for the Mariners, who are 21-9 in one-run games. That's the most one-un victories in the majors. The Angels are 10-5 in their last 15 games, including 6-1 during their past seven. Heaney has a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 2.35 career ERA versus the Mariners in three lifetime starts. The Angels have one of the top road marks in the majors at 20-11.
06-10-18	Yankees v. Mets OVER 7	Top	0-2	Loss	-120	18 h 4 m	Show
As great as Luis Severino has been throwing, it takes two outstanding pitchers to justify a total this low. Seth Lugo, who is primarily a middle reliever, doesn't fit with a total this low. This is especially so facing the No. 1 offense in baseball. The Yankees lead the majors in homers, runs and OPS. They easily could cover this total alone. Lugo is making just his second start of the season, filling in for injured Noah Syndergaard. The Mets are down closer Jeurys Famila and setup man AJ Ramos, both of whom are on the DL. Anything the Mets can produce would be a bonus. The Mets have scored only 11 runs in their last eight games. The Mets' offense should pick up, though, with the return of key injured hitters. Todd Frazier recently returned from injury and had a home run on Saturday. Underrated Brandon Nimmo is batting .303 with a .646 slugging percentage against righthanded pitchers, which Severino is.
06-10-18	Cardinals -115 v. Reds		3-6	Loss	-115	11 h 36 m	Show
As long as the price is right, which it is here, the Cardinals are worth backing against the Reds. St. Louis owns Cincinnati having defeated the Reds 13 straight times. St. Louis also has won the past 11 times at Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals own all the edges against the Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, including a starting pitching advantage. Carlos Martinez has gone 13 scoreless innings against Cincinnati this season. He goes against Anthony DeSclafani, who is making just his second start since 2016 following a major injury. DeSclafani is rusty and not in Martinez's class. The Reds' bullpen also carries a high fatigue rating.
06-09-18	Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7.5	Top	5-3	Win	100	6 h 16 m	Show
Seeing a total of less than 8 given this pitching matchup and the way these teams are hitting, it's a solid investment to go Over the total. Anibal Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves - so far. Sanchez, though, is well past his prime and is due for serious regression. That very well could come here against the red-hot Dodgers offense, which is averaging 8.8 runs in their last seven games. The Dodgers have pounded 22 homers during this seven-game stretch. The Braves have scored three or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. They've hit lefties better than righties and are facing southpaw Alex Wood, who is having a down season with a 4.48 ERA.
06-09-18	Angels v. Twins +103	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	16 h 30 m	Show
Kyle Gibson has won just one game this season. But that figure is misleading. Gibson has pitched well this year holding nine of his 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The Twins are 14-6 in Gibson's last 20 games starts going back to last season. Minnesota has won in each of its last four games againt the Angels when Gibson has started. The Angels are going with lefty Tyler Skaggs. They have lost in five of Skaggs' past seven starts. Minnesota is 12-4 the past 16 times going against a southpaw starter at home. The Angels are deadling with multiple injuries with Shohei Ohtani, Adrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun and Kaleb Cowart all out.
06-08-18	Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs	Top	108-85	Win	100	26 h 45 m	Show
You can talk zig-zag and the Cavaliers going all out to salvage at least one game. But this series is a foregone conclusion - and the Cavaliers know it. None of the other 131 teams in NBA history who have fallen behind 3-0 in a playoff series have come back to win. Neither will Cleveland. LeBron James trying to battle four stars - two of whom are superstars - isn't a fair fight. Golden State's talent is so above Cleveland's that the Warriors don't even have to be fully motivated to cover this spread. Golden State proved that in a 110-102 road victory in Game 3 this past Wednesday. The Warriors won and covered despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combining to score only 21 points while missing a combined 20 of 27 shots from the floor. It didn't matter because of other reaons such as Kevin Durant being so good, Golden State's better bench and holding a coaching edge. The Cavaliers weren't able to beat the Warriors last year when they had Kyrie Irving and were much better. Durant is a major reason. Golden State is 7-1 against Cleveland in the playoffs since Durant became part of the Warriors. Cleveland lacks the defense, coaching and role players to hang close to Golden State. J.R. Smith has been so brutal that he could get MVP votes - for Golden State. Kyle Korver is just a rumor. No, the Cavaliers don't have it. James can't put forth anymore than what he's doing while the Warriors are capable of better. Even if they aren't, they still hold enough edges to cover.
06-08-18	Astros v. Rangers +1.5		7-3	Loss	-100	9 h 54 m	Show
Judging by the starting pitching matchup of Justin Verlander versus Doug Fister this game is a huge mismatch. Certainly it's priced that way. But I see enough below-the-radar edges to back the Rangers at plus 1 1/2 runs. Verlander is a monster. Certainly this is not a fade on him. But veteran Doug Fister has pitched better than expected for the most part. He'll be helped by a 10-12 mph wind blowing in. Fister has a respectable 3.18 ERA in two starts against the Astros this season and 3.34 ERA in five career starts.versus Houston. The Rangers' bullpen has been outperforming the Astros bullpen by a large margin during the last two weeks with a 0.89 ERA compared to Houston's 4.32 ERA during this span. Houston has a losing record during its past 12 games in part because of its bullpen failures. The Rangers are 10-6 in their last 16 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The Rangers also have won Game 2 during their past seven series. The Astros aren't likely to have one of their best players either as shortstop Carlos Correa has an upper body injury. Free Friday Play Braves plus $1.66 at Dodgers The surprising Braves have a better offense than the Dodgers, are 10 games above .500 compared to LA's .500 record and drawing a rookie pitcher. Yet the Dodgers are a monster favorite here. I'm not buying this especially considering the situational aspects of this game. LA concluded a six-game road trip with an 8-7 victory against the Pirates yesterday. The Dodgers' bullpen is heavily taxed having pitched 14 1/3 innings he past two days. LA is in a fat and happy mood having won five of six during its road trip. While the Dodgers face the distraction of returning home without rest after being gone a week while playing in two different time zones, the Braves were idle on Thursday. They've been in Southern California since Monday. Atlanta is 20-14 on the road. The Dodgers are 14-17 at home. Braves starter Brandon McCarthy won't lack motivation pitching against his former team having played for the Dodgers from 2015-17. The 34-year-old McCarthy certainly brings an experience level Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler lacks. McCarthy has held foes to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts. Buehler is a highly-rated prospect. So far he's living up to his hype with a 2.74 ERA in his first 46 innings. Buehler, though, figures to have ups and downs as the league gets more film and first-hand information about him. Atlanta leads the National League in runs and OPS. The Braves have the fourth-highest batting average, too, in the majors. The Dodgers' offense hasn't been able to match that. LA ranks 18th in batting average.
06-07-18	Capitals v. Golden Knights -126	Top	4-3	Loss	-126	54 h 10 m	Show
The Golden Knights have not lost four games in a row all season. I'm not expecting that to happen either in this must-win spot for Vegas, down 3-to-1 in this championship series. I express this opinion with the confidence that the Golden Knights will be revitalized returning home. Las Vegas had the fourth-best home mark during the regular season and is 7-2 at home during the Stanley Cup playoffs with the lone losses occurring to the Sharks in overtime and to the Capitals, 3-2, in Game 2. All together, the Golden Knights have won 73 percent of their past 48 games at T-Mobile Arena. Las Vegas beat Washington, 6-4, in Game 1 of this series at home. The Golden Knights were stopped, 3-2, in Game 2 when Braden Holtby made a miracle stick save that might have been the best save of the season. That save turned the series around. Washington outplayed Las Vegas, 3-1, at home in Game 3. The Capitals then defeated the Golden Knights, 6-2, at home in Game 4 this past Monday. That score was misleading, though. The Golden Knights attacked well, but didn't get breaks and just missed on their shots on goal. The Capitals took advanage of Las Vegas' aggressiveness to built an early insurmountable 3-0 lead. But I liked how well the Golden Knights attacked the Capitals' 1-1-3 neutral zone trap defense that had been so effective in Game 3. The Golden Knights are going to get their goals in Game 5. They go four lines deep and were the fifth-highest scoring team during the regular season. The Capitals have blown more 3-1 postseason leads than any team. The Capitals have led after four games in the Stanley Cup four times during the Alex Ovechkin era. They lost Game 5 on three of those occasions. I wouldn't trust the Capitals to close out the Golden Knights on the road. This matchup is Las Vegas' time to win.
06-06-18	Marlins v. Cardinals -1.5	Top	11-3	Loss	-100	13 h 20 m	Show
Not only do the Marlins have the worst record in the National League, but their losses usually aren't close either. They have lost by more than one run in nine of their last 11 losses. St. Louis is poised to make a move with Yadier Molina back from the DL and Marcell Ozuna heating up. The Cardinals fell as big favorites to the Marlins on Tuesday in the first game of this series. I don't see a repeat of that happening. Neither does the oddsmaker with this huge of a price. This game shapes up as a kill spot for the Cardinals so I'm going to lay 1 1/2 runs and get a plus price rather than have to risk heavy juice. Miami had lost six in a row until last night. They last time the Marlins won back-to-back games was May 22-23 versus the Mets. The Marlins are starting lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who is coming off a serious injury and trying to round into form. He has a 6.10 ERA and doesn't go deep into games. The Marlins have a very weak bullpen. I like Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty, who is displaying a lot of promise with a 2.62 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. The Cardinals have won 62 percent of their games this season against lefty starters.
06-06-18	Orioles +105 v. Mets		1-0	Win	105	2 h 33 m	Show
The Mets have scored only seven runs in their last five games and face the Orioles' best pitcher, Dylan Bundy. Bundy is the one Orioles starter who can be counted on. This is a day game and Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a 5.57 day time ERA. The Mets have lost in 13 of their last 16 interleague games.
06-05-18	Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 7.5	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
These two teams have a strong history of scoring runs against each other. The Over has cashed in 13 of their last 16 meetings for 81 percent. I see that trend continuing when the Cardinals host the Marlins today. The Marlins have surrendered six or more runs in five of their last six games. Miami starter Jose Urena has a 4.41 ERA and a career 8.16 ERA against the Cardinals in three starts. The Marlins have a terrible bullpen. The Cardinals' offense has gotten more deadly with Marcell Ozuna shaking off a slow start to bat .457 during his last 12 games. The Cardinals also get catcher Yadier Molina back from injury. Molina is an elite defensive catcher, but he's also a huge offensive upgrade for the Cardinals at the position. Carlos Martinez will be making his first start in four weeks. So he figures to be rusty. Martinez also has a 5.04 lifetime ERA versus the Marlins in four starts.
06-04-18	Braves +106 v. Padres	Top	4-11	Loss	-100	15 h 41 m	Show
The Braves are at least a year ahead of schedule in their rebuild. They are leading the NL East having just won three of four from the Nationals. Now they head to the West Coast to meet the Padres. I expect the Braves to carry their adrenalin through in winning this first game of the series. Atlanta is the supeior team and has the better starter going in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Clayton Richard. I'm surprised the Padres opened a favorite. The oddsmaker is seeing the Padres being 5-2 on their current homestand. That record, however, has been compiled against the Marlins and Reds. Those are the two worst teams in the National League. Even with those five victories, the Padres still are 16-20 at home. They rank 28th in runs scored. Atlanta is in the top-six in runs scored and batting average. The Braves are 6-3 in their last nine games and have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Teheran has pitched much better on the road going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA. The Braves are 11-8 versus lefty starters and have a strong history against Richard, who is 0-6 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 6.75 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts. Stephen's Free Monday Play Royals plus $1.65 at Angels I don't believe Nick Tropeano should be a favorite in this price range. He's a No. 5 type pitcher at best and the Angels aren't some powerhouse. They are 14-18 at home, have a weak outfield aside from the great Mike Trout and are vulnerable in the bullpen having arguably lost their two best relief pitchers, Keynan Middleton and Blake Wood, to season-ending elbow injuries. Kansas City has won seven of its last 12 games. Until yesterday, the Royals had gone seven consecutive games without an error. Royals starter Danny Duffy has had a rough season, but he's strung together two straight good outings giving up two runs and eight hits in 13 2/3 innings against the Rangers and Twins. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll put a peanut on the Royals.
06-03-18	Phillies -123 v. Giants		1-6	Loss	-123	12 h 14 m	Show
The Phillies have some young talent that is reaching maturity. It's one reason they are a surprising six games above .500. Another reason for their above average showing is Jake Arrieta is pitching as well as he did when he won the Cy Young Award in 2015. Arrieta isn't getting as many strikeouts as he did three years ago, but he has the highest ground ball rate in the majors this season. Arrieta has permitted just three earned runs in his last five starts spanning 30 innings. He hasn't allowed an earned run during his past two starts spanning 13 2/3 innings. The Giants are a below .500 team. They don't get Madison Bumgarner back until Tuesday and remain without injured Johnny Cueto. Because of this some young San Francisco pitchers have had to make starts. Dereck Rodriguez gets that chance in this game. This will be his first big league start. He pitched for the first time in the majors this past Tuesday and gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Rockies. Arrieta versus the largely untested Rodriguez is a huge edge for the Phillies, who have also been getting great bullpen pitching. This edge is even higher considering the Giants could be without their two best offensive players. Brandon Belt is on the DL with an appendectomy and Buster Posey is day-to-day because of a bruised elbow.
06-03-18	Indians v. Twins OVER 9	Top	5-7	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
Both teams are swinging hot bats. The Indians are averaging eight runs a game during their last seven games if you discount Saturday's freak one-run performance. The Twins are averaging 7.5 runs in their last four games. They have scored seven or more runs in five of their past six games. But will this hot hitting continue? There are key factors that point to it continuing. The pitching matchup is Mike Clevinger versus Kyle Gibson. These are bottom of the rotation starters for these teams. Clevinger has a 4.42 ERS in his last three starts. Gibson possess a 5.76 home ERA. Andrew Miller is on the DL, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of Cleveland's bullpen. The weather forecast calls for winds blowing out to right in the 18-19 mph range. Jerry Layne is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's been behind the plate 10 times this year and the Over has cashed in eight of those appearances.
06-03-18	Brewers v. White Sox OVER 9.5		1-6	Loss	-100	10 h 26 m	Show
The Brewers are helped more than most NL teams when the DH is in play like it is here because they have four good outfielders - Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's offense should be aided by two other key factors here: Expected bad starting and bullpen pitching from the White Sox and a brisk wind blowing out from 16-18 mph. Only four teams have slugged more homers thand the Brewers this season. The Brewers should be able to tee off on second-year man Dylan Covey, who has a 4.15 day ERA and and owns an 8.22 ERA in three interleague lifetime appearances. I'm expecting the White Sox to do their fair share of damage, too, going against the Brewers' worst starter, Brent Suter. He has a 4.63 ERA, doesn't go deep into games and has yielded eight home runs in his last five appearances.
06-02-18	Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150	Top	2-6	Win	100	13 h 28 m	Show
A major reason why the Marlins have the worst record in the National League is their lack of offense. Miami ranks last in the majors in runs scored and homers. The Marlins were dominated last night by Clay Buchholz, who is on the downside of his career having pitching for three teams in the last three years.Yet Miami managed only one run on six hits in seven innings versus Buchholz, who struck out nine while walking just one. If the Marlins had that much trouble against Buchholz they really figure to struggle against Zach Greinke, who also changes speeds well and still retains his elite status especially when pitching at home. Greinke is 15-1 at Chase Field during the past two seasons. He has a 1.69 home ERA in six starts this year limiting opposing hitters to a .184 mark. Arizona has won 20 of Greinke's past 26 home starts. Greinke is 5-0 lifetime against the Marlins, who have lost the past six times when going up against a righthanded starter. Miami has dropped 32 of its past 45 away games. The Marlins are 1-5 during their last six games at Chase Field. Rookie lefty Caleb Smith has been up-and-down for the Marlins. He's 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. The rebuilding Marlins are giving Smith a long leash. Smith is capable of coming up with a good performance. But the Diamondbacks have finally begun showing some offense scoring 30 runs in their last four games. That's the most they've scored in a four-game stretch all season. Arizona also is 13-7 this season against southpaw starters.
06-02-18	Golden Knights +111 v. Capitals	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	25 h 12 m	Show
If anything these Stanley Cup playoffs have shown that home ice is overrated. The scene shifts to Washington's Capital One Arena for Game 3. But the Capitals are 4-5 at home during the playoffs. Las Vegas is 6-2 on the road in this postseason. The Capitals survived a 3-2 victory against the Golden Knights this past Wednesday. The Knights outshot Washington, 39-26. Braden Holtby made the save of the playoffs to keep the game from being tied. Las Vegas was the aggressor and nearly won despite not being overly sharp. Look for the Golden Knights to bounce back and for Marc-Andre Fleury to have his best game of the series. Las Vegas is 16-4 when Fleury has been in net following a loss, including 14-2 during the last 16 instances. I'm not sold on the Capitals. They have a history of not winning clutch games in their bid to win the Stanley Cup. The Capitals might also be without their leading scorer in the playoffs, Evgeny Kuznetsov. He's questionable due to an arm injury.
06-01-18	Reds -103 v. Padres		7-2	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
Now that there has been a switch in favorites, I'm going to go against the line move and take the Reds. Cincinnati has better hitters than San Diego and I like Tyler Mahle more than the totally untested Walker Lockett. This will be Lockett's big league debut. He comes up from Triple-A El Paso where he wasn't pitching well with a 2-5 record and 5.31 ERA. Now he has to face Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. I would take those three guys above any of the Padres hitters with Wil Myers still on the DL. This is what Padres manager Andy Green was quoted as saying about Lockett: "...His numbers are not great right now with El Paso, but this is the time when you start taking looks at guys and he has the opportunity to come up here and establish himself and possibly earn another shot the next time around." That's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
06-01-18	Dodgers v. Rockies -105	Top	11-8	Loss	-105	5 h 12 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get the Rockies at home against the Dodgers in what shapes up as a bullpen game for LA. It looks like Scott Alexander is going to get the start now for the Dodgers, but this is an action bet for me meaning I'm taking the Rockies regardless of who the Dodgers start. The Dodgers may be distracted, too, with Clayton Kershaw leaving his last start due to back tightness after just returning from the DL. The Rockies are playing better at home winning their past two series at Coors Field. Their starter, Tyler Anderson, knows how to pitch at Coors. The Dodgers have a losing road record.
06-01-18	A's v. Royals UNDER 9.5	Top	16-0	Loss	-114	19 h 1 m	Show
First off, we have two bottom-10 offenses going at it here. The A's have been held to four or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games. Of course much of this handicap is based on the starting pitching matchup. That's Frankie Montas versus Ian Kennedy. Montas made his season debut this past Sunday and looked outstanding beating the Diamondbacks, 2-1. He gave up one run in six innings allowing three hits and striking out seven. It's going to take the league some time before they catch on to him. He had a no-hitter through five innings. Kennedy has pitched much better at home where his ERA is 3.66 compared to 7.01 on the road. Kennedy also was sharp in his last start allowing two hits and two runs in five innings versus the Rangers.
05-31-18	Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros	Top	2-4	Loss	-106	11 h 36 m	Show
Drew Pomeranz isn't in great form. But the Red Sox are way undervalued her. They are so undervalued that I can still get a bargain on them at plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball at 39-17. They would be 23-7 in their last 30 games if given 1 1/2 runs. The Astros aren't playing well going 1-4 in their last five games. This also marks Houston's first game back from a seven-game road trip, which isn't a good situational spot. Lance McCullers has a 6.16 ERA in four career starts versus the Red Sox. Pormeranz has a 3.69 lifetime ERA against Houston in 12 appearances.
05-30-18	Capitals v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-114	29 h 20 m	Show
I'm surprised to see that the oddsmakers didn't open this Game 2 with an over/under of 6 instead of 5 1/2. I liked going Over 5 1/2 in Game 1 and there's no reason to not play Over again in Game 2. There were 10 goals scored in Monday's Game 1. The total went Over before the middle of the second period. Both teams skated at a fast pace and there were many high-caliber shots on goals. Las Vegas plays fast and is relentless. One of its major strengths was on full display in Game 1 - its fourth line scoring three goals in the third period. A strong scoring fourth line is rare and a huge plus for the Over. The Capitals produced four goals. They accomplished this with superstars Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov combining for just two assists. Neither had a goal. I can't envision those two not scoring a goal for a second straight game. Marc-Andre Fleury has been brilliant in the playoffs, but he wasn't that sharp in Game 1. Probably a nine-day layoff between games made Fleury rusty. But he did not look invincible. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby has a history of playing better at home than on the road. There were plenty of scoring opportunities in Game 1 even with 10 goals scored. This was during 5-on-5 hockey, too, as each team only had one power play opportunity. There likley is going to be more penalties called in Game 2 leading to more power play chances especially after Tom Wilson decked Jonathan Marchessault with a blindsided hit that was late and cheap.
05-30-18	Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9		1-6	Win	100	11 h 28 m	Show
The weak-hitting Tigers - who rank 27th in homers - get their first look at rookie sensation Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Don't expect much from the Tigers especially still being without Miguel Cabrera. Tigers starter Mike Fiers is an up-and-down pitcher, difficult to predict. But he and Ohtani will be aided by the wind blowing in at 13-15 mph and the large dimensions of Comerica Park, which favor pitching.
05-30-18	Cubs -120 v. Pirates		1-2	Loss	-120	11 h 22 m	Show
The Pirates are a mess and the price is low enough to get involved with the Cubs in a pitching matchup of Kyle Hendricks against Joe Musgrove. Hendricks is as steady as ever with five quality starts in his last six outings. He has a 3.16 ERA on the season. Hendricks is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts at PNC Park. It's safe to believe Hendricks is going to be stingy and the Cubs hold a huge bullpen edge. Chicago has won four of its last five games while the slumping Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games and have dropped four in a row. Musgrove is more of a reliever. This is his second start of the year. He has made 26 career starts and has a 5.11 ERA in those appearances.
05-29-18	Phillies +165 v. Dodgers		6-1	Win	165	11 h 31 m	Show
I like the value with the Phillies here. Philadelphia is 29-22 while the Dodgers are three games below .500. But most of all I like a hot Jake Arrieta being this large of an underdog. Arrieta has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers are 5-12 during their past 17 games going against a righthanded starter. Kenta Maeda pitches much better at Dodger Stadium than on the road, but he's trumped by Arrieta. The Phillies have an underrated bullpen. They are a very live 'dog at a very good price.
05-29-18	Cubs -115 v. Pirates	Top	8-6	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
This is a short price to get the much superior Cubs here with a much superior pitching advantage. Jon Lester is having another strong season posting a 1.69 ERA in his last seven starts. He hasn't surrendered more than two runs in each of his last five starts. The Pirates are going with rookie Nick Kingham to fill in for injured Ivan Nova. The Pirates are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have bullpen issues.
05-29-18	Nationals +107 v. Orioles		3-2	Win	107	7 h 28 m	Show
Dylan Bundy is Baltimore's best pitcher. But the Orioles still have lost 10 of his past 14 starts. Washington has won 68 percent of its last 59 road games when facing a righthanded starter. The Orioles are in rebuild mode with the second-worst record in baseball. The Nationals are 19-6 in their last 25 games. They also are one of the best road clubs at 18-8. Jeremy Hellickson has exceeded expectations pitching for the Nationals posting a 2.13 ERA in seven starts. The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Baltimore also has dropped its past nine interleague games.
05-29-18	Astros -117 v. Yankees		5-6	Loss	-117	7 h 27 m	Show
The Yankees aren't quite as good as the defending world champion Astros and CC Sabathia is their weak link in their starting rotation. Sabathia has a 6.05 ERA in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Rangers during his last start. The Astros have a far better offense than the Rangers. Houston is a top road team at 19-9. The Astros are 10-7 versus southpaws this season and have won 14 of their last 19 games. If it weren't for Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton would be getting a lot more respect. Morton has won his last 10 decisions going back to last year. He is 7-0 with a 2.04 ERA this year.
05-28-18	Capitals v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5	Top	4-6	Win	110	73 h 12 m	Show
It's not often teams receive such a long break before beginning the Stanley Cup Finals. But that's certainly the case for the Golden Knights, who haven't played in eight days. The Capitals last played this past Wednesday. Washington happens to be 10-1-1 to the Over when playing on three or more days rest. This extended layoff ensures fresh legs. That's a huge plus for the offense. Both teams are well above average in scoring. The Golden Knights ranked fifth in goals at 3.3 per game. The Capitals rated ninth at 3.1. They have the league's top goal scorer in Alex Ovechkin, who scored 49 goals. The Capitals also have Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is the playoff leader with 24 postseason points. Tom Wilson is back from suspension joining those two to give the Capitals a very dangerous first line that should play a lot due to the extra rest. The Capitals scored three, four and four goals during the first road game in each of their past three playoff series leading up to these finals. Washington is averaging four goals per game during its past four away matchups. Las Vegas is averaging four goals a game during its first home contest in each of its three playoff series. The Golden Knights have scored three or more goals in eight of their last 11 games. Yet the linesmaker didn't assign a total of 6 on this game because of the hot goalies. Braden Holtby is riding a scoreless streak of 159 minuts, 27 seconds. Marc-Andre Fleury has been absolutely brilliant. The long layoff, though, isn't going to help these goaltenders. Fleury had his worst game of the playoffs in Game 1 of the Golden Knights' last series against Winnipeg surrendering four goals, posting an 84.6 save percentage. The Golden Knights had been idle for six days leading into that game. Holtby entered this season without a strong reputation of being a great road goalie especially in the playoffs. The Golden Knights can't match the Capitals' superstars, but they go four lines deep and their speedy forwards and creative playmaking can cause problems for goalies. I think that will be the case here.
05-28-18	Twins v. Royals UNDER 9.5		8-5	Loss	-120	10 h 45 m	Show
This total is too high given the lack of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has scored only six runs in its last four games. The Twins have scored four or fewer runs in 11 of their past 13 games. The Under has cashed in the Twins' last six games. The Royals haven't scored more than five runs in 14 of their last 15 games. Royals starter Jakob Junis is below-the-radar and Lance Lynn is showing signs of rounding into shape. He's off his best game of the season blanking the Tigers on five hits for 6 2/3 innings this past Tuesday.
05-28-18	Marlins v. Padres OVER 7		7-2	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
I don't think it's too difficult for each of these teams to put up at least four runs given a starting pitching matchup of rookies Caleb Smith against Eric Lauer. Smith has pitched some good games, but is weaker on the road where his ERA is 4.18. The Marlins have given up 18 runs in their last three games and have a weak bullpen. Lauer probably shouldn't be in a major league rotation. He's made six big league starts and has a 6.67 ERA.
05-28-18	Rays +127 v. A's		1-0	Win	127	7 h 32 m	Show
The buy sign is on with Chris Archer, who has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. I'll take him at a 'dog price against journeyman Trevor Cahill, who is coming off a season high 102 pitches in his last game. Oakland has been struggling with its best power hitter, Khris Davis, on the DL managing to average only two runs per game during its past six games. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven away games.
05-28-18	Mets -121 v. Braves		3-4	Loss	-121	4 h 38 m	Show
Jacob deGrom is right up there with the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and is in dominant form giving up only one run in his last 33 1/3 innings. He has 29 strikeouts in his last 19 innings. Lifetime, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA versus the Braves in 13 starts. So it's easy to back deGrom especially going against Max Fried, who has a 6.00 ERA in relief and will be making his first start of the season. This could end up being a bullpen game for the Braves. Atlanta's focus could be off for several reasons. The Braves has been on the road for the past six games, are off a huge upset win against Chris Sale and their star rookie outfielder, Ronald Acuna Jr., suffered a scary leg injury on Sunday. His status won't be determined until today.
05-27-18	Cavs v. Celtics -125	Top	87-79	Loss	-125	20 h 48 m	Show
As great as LeBron James is - and I believe he's the greatest basketball player of all-time - I can't see Cleveland winning this game. Boston is 10-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. The Celtics have rolled past the Cavaliers in all three of their home playoff games by an average winning margin of 17 points. The Celtics are the stronger defensive team and much better coached. James is facing a fatigue factor and nursing a sore knee. He's not going to have Kevin Love to help him either Love is ruled out and I don't trust any of the Cavaliers besides James to step up. JR Smith is particularly bad. The Celtics have covered 19 of their last 26 home games.
05-27-18	Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200		87-79	Win	100	20 h 47 m	Show
The two teams have gone Under the total in four of their last five games played in Boston. I see that trend continuing in this Game 7 where defensive intensity is sure to be at its highest. I don't see both teams shooting as well as they did in Game 6 particularly the Celtics, who made 51.4 percent of their field goals. The pace actually was slow that game. There is a fatigue factor here this being Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals following the long season. So neither team is going to be playing up-tempo. It's a huge plus for the Under that Kevin Love has been ruled out. He's a very good scorer, but a weak defender. Even with Love, the Cavaliers only are averaging 86.6 points during their three games at Boston in the series.
05-27-18	Diamondbacks -102 v. A's		1-2	Loss	-102	6 h 17 m	Show
Frankie Montas is slated to make his first big league appearance of the season today starting against the Diamondbacks. This will be just his third start in the majors. The Diamondbacks are struggling, but I'm not buying this line. Zack Greinke still is an elite pitcher. Greinke is pitching on extra rest, too. Arizona is 12-4 the past 16 times he has pitched on five days rest. The A's can be tough at home. I recognize this. But they aren't some super power. They don't steal bases, are bad defensively, their bullpen is down a key setup man and their top slugger, Khris Davis, is out.
05-26-18	Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers		7-5	Win	100	17 h 49 m	Show
The Dodgers have started to play better, but they are four games below .500. This is because they are just 12-20 against righthanded starters, including 1-7 during their past eight home games against a righy starter. I believe Jordan Lyles can hang with Alex Wood especially with the Padres taking 1 1/2 runs in a game projected to have fewer than eight runs scored. Lyles has posted a 2.50 ERA in three starts this season. San Diego is 2-0 during his last two starts. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Padres would be 13-6 in their last 19 games.
05-26-18	Twins +132 v. Mariners		3-4	Loss	-100	17 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to take this 'dog price with a hot Jake Odorizzi against 33-year-old journeyman Wade LeBlanc. Odorizzi has a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins just got back Miguel Sano, their best power hitter, from injury and have won nine of the past 13 times in Seattle. I will say LeBlanc has pitched well since joining the starting rotation. But he's never been able to achieve consistency. The Mariners are the seventh team he's pitched for since 2011. Regression to the norm is overdue. The Mariners are scraping for runs averaging 2.4 during their past five games. They are without injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano.
05-26-18	Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212	Top	86-115	Loss	-106	20 h 41 m	Show
I understand that these two powerhouse offenses have combined to score only 192 and 187 points, respectively, during the past two games. Hence now we have the lowest total of the series by far in this Game 6. This low total, though, isn't just dictated by how the previous two games have played out with a slow tempo, but by Chris Paul being out with a hamstring injury. This is the time to go Over and Paul's injury is a big reason why. It was to the Rockets' advantage to slow the pace relying on superstars Paul and James Harden. Paul would hold the ball for long stretches during most possessions either seeking Harden on a pick-and-roll, or taking it to the hoop himself when the 24-second clock was winding down. This type of isolation basketball is what Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni was seeking. It's not going to happen anymore with Paul out. The Rockets are going to have to beat the Warriors by firing up 3-pointers. They have the players to do that with Harden, Eric Gordon, who is playing extremely well, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker and Gerald Green. Their style is to fire at will, which they will do without Paul to orchestrate the offense. Harden is way overdue to have a strong shooting game having missed 20 of 23 3-point shots during the last two games. Golden State has dropped two in a row in part because it has been relying too much on Kevin Durant and getting away from its normal ball-sharing, excellent ball movement ways. Look for the Warriors to revert back to their style of game now that they are returning home. They are averaging 115 points during their past five games at Oracle Arena. The Rockets are forced to change their style and it leaves them vulnerable to the Warriors' dominant transition game. The pace should be much faster in this game and the shooting much better.
05-25-18	Celtics +7 v. Cavs		99-109	Loss	-109	11 h 35 m	Show
I understand the home team has won and covered each of the five games so far in this series. But I've believed the Celtics are the better team all along and I'm not going to turn away from them getting this many points. Boston snatched momemtum away from Cleveland winning, 96-83, at home two days ago. The Celtics have the fresher legs being the younger team and are far better coached. So the deeper this series goes the better for Boston. The Celtics beat the Cavaliers by 13 points in Game 5 despite shooting only 36 percent from the floor. Boston won because of outstanding adjustments made by Brad Stevens, one of which was going with a bigger lineup. This resulted in Boston outrebounding Cleveland, 45-39. I don't believe Tyrunn Lue is capable of countering Stevens. The Celtics were a good road team during the regular season. They've had two games now to figure out how to play in Cleveland. They don't have the best player on the court. That's LeBron James of course. But they play better team basketball and James is starting to display signs of fatigue. I'm taking the Celtics here anticipating James will play his normal "A" game. If he doesn't, though, it's an added bonus.
05-25-18	Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8	Top	3-4	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
The Brewers have been shut out nine times this season. That's the most in the majors. It wouldn't shock me if they were shut out for a 10th time in this spot going against Noah Syndergaard. Discount a nine-run game against the Diamondbacks and Milwaukee has scored six runs in its last four games. Syndergaard is healthy and an absolute monster. He's allowed three runs or fewer during each of his past nine starts. He has a 0.49 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers. Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a late bloomer, who has settled into being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He has a 3.02 career ERA at home and is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with the top arms all fresh. Guerra has allowed only one run in 12 3/3 innings lifetime against the Mets. The Mets' offense is way down minus injured Yoenis Cespedes, their most feared bat, and Todd Frazier. New York has been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its last 13 games. There's a good chance, too, that the roof is closed at Miller Park because of the threat of rain. That would be an added plus for the pitchers.
05-24-18	Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5	Top	94-98	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
Slower pace, increased intensity, key adjustments by the Rockets and the oddsmaker not lowring the total enough all points to another Under in this Warriors-Rockets Game 5 matchup. The Rockets aren't letting the Warriors get off in transition, which was the case earlier in the series. They are an underrated defensive team - the Under has cashed in 15 of their last 22 home games - and have decreased tempo locking into the Warriors' shooters while milking time off the 24-second clock on offense by trying to isolate either James Harden or Chris Paul. There's a lot of grinding now as these Western Conference Finals now become a best of three with the series tied 2-2. The Warriors managed just 14 assists in Game 4. That was a series low. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala again. He's still a very good defender, but his offense is missed because of his passing ability. Golden State's offensive flow suffers without him and his absence provides added minutes for defensive-minded players, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell and Shaun Livingston. The Rockets are at their best when playing with one day's rest, which is the case here. So I see them continuing to play tough defense. The Under has cashed 22 of the last 32 times the Rockets have played on one day's rest.
05-23-18	Cavs v. Celtics +1	Top	83-96	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
Wrong opening favorite. I don't care that the Cavaliers have won and covered the past two games in convincing fashion. Those games were in Cleveland. This one is in Boston where the Celtics are 13-1 SU and ATS in its last 14 games at TD Garden. The Celtics are a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs. Cleveland has a losing road mark in the postseason. This includes two losses at Boston earlier in the series by an average of 19 points. Boston has been tough at home all season on a 75 percent covering run during its last 24 home contests. The Celtics have a lot of youthful talent who play more relaxed and under control at TD Garden. The Celtics also figure to get a better break from the officials than they did these past two games in Cleveland. LeBron James has been great as usual in the series, but I don't trust Cleveland's role players especially on the road. Kevin Love is showing signs of fatigue. He may not be 100 percent and J.R. Smith is 8-for-33 shooting from the floor for 24.2 percent.
05-23-18	Capitals v. Lightning OVER 5.5		4-0	Loss	-100	6 h 28 m	Show
Now that we have the first total of less than 6 in this Eastern Conference Stanley Cup final, I'm going to get involved and go Over. The Capitals were a top-10 scoring team averaging 3.1 goals. The Lightning led the NHL in scoring at 3.5 goals per game. These two teams have gone Over 75 percent of the time during the past 17 games played in Tampa. So far Game 7's have been high scoring. There were 11 goals scored in the Maple Leafs-Bruins Game 7 and six goals scored in the Jets-Predators Game 7. Those are the two instances this season. I expect this Game 7 to produce at least six goals, too, because of the strong sense of urgency and aggressive play. The trailing team has nothing to lose and must go in full attack mode. This can offer the bonus of not one but two empty net goals. It's hard to believe that both goalies, Braden Holtby and Andrei Vasilevskiy, can continue to play at such high levels. Holtby normally is less effective on the road and Vasilevskiy can become vulnerable when overworked.
05-23-18	Pirates -113 v. Reds		5-4	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
If the price is low enough - like it is here - I'll stand in line to fade Homer Bailey. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl is bottom of the rotation material. But Bailey shouldn't even be in the big leagues anymore. He's living off a couple of no-hitters. Bailey has been bad for several years now and he's getting worse with a 6.11 ERA. He's allowed nine earned runs and 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Cincinnati has lost 17 of Bailey's last 21 starts. Homer-friendly Great American Ball Park is a very bad fit for Bailey, a flyball pitcher. Kuhl has a history of pitching better on the road than at home and the Pirates hold a bullpen edge.
05-22-18	Rockets +9 v. Warriors	Top	95-92	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Are the Warriors really better than the Rockets? I'll take nearly double-digits to find out. This line is inflated based on the Warriors' dominant 126-85 burial of the Rockets this past Sunday. Houston has now lost four times in the postseason after finishing with the best record in the NBA during the regular season at 65-17. The Rockets are 3-0 winning by an average of 20.7 points in each of their next games following a playoff loss. There's more. The Rockets have won 79.5 percent of their games when playing on one day's rest, averaging 115.5 points. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times on the road when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. Golden State, by contrast, is 4-15 ATS the last 19 times playing on one day's rest. The Warriors also have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a straight-up victory. It wouldn't be surprising if the Warriors are a tad bit complacent and overconfident following their dominant performance. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala either. He's questionable with a bruised knee. Iguodala is an outstanding two-way player, who I consider the Warriors' top role player.
05-22-18	Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 224.5		95-92	Win	100	19 h 53 m	Show
This is Game 4 of the series. There are no secrets between these two teams. The stars are out in force here. So is the total, though, which is extremely high. There should be plenty of intensity and increased playoff caliber defense. The Under has cashed in nine of the past 13 meetings between these two teams and should have won in Game 1. The Rockets are a below-the-radar Under team going below the total 67 percent of the time during their last 55 games. They have gone Under in six of their past eight away contests. There is the strong possibility Andre Iguodala doesn't play for Golden State. He's a very good defensive player, but he would be missed on offense, too, for his ball movement. Plus his absence would create more minutes for Kevin Looney, Shaun Livingston and Jordan Bell. These are all defensive-minded players with limited offensive games.
05-22-18	Marlins v. Mets -110		5-1	Loss	-110	9 h 46 m	Show
The Marlins have lost three in a row and still reeling from blowing a huge lead against the Braves this past Sunday when Atlanta scored six runs in the ninth.That was a devastating loss for such a young team. The Mets are playing much better having won four in a row. Caleb Smith is 1-3 with a 5.29 road ERA while Mets starter Zach Wheeler has a strong history against the Marlins with a 3- record and 2.15 ERA in eight starts.
05-21-18	Celtics +7 v. Cavs	Top	102-111	Loss	-110	19 h 26 m	Show
I look for the Celtics to come back strong after getting trounced, 116-86, by the Cavaliers in Game 3 this past Saturday. Boston has won and covered each of the past three times it has lost. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency this season. They are the better defensive team and the better coached team. LeBron James is great. But the rest of the Cavaliers played way over their heads as Cleveland shot 17-of-34 from 3-point range and made 25 of 30 free throws in their Game 3 blowout. Cleveland still is terrible as a home favorite especially in this price range covering just 26 percent the past 31 times when laying 5 1/2 or more points. The Cavaliers are 22-50 ATS when favored this season, including 2-5 in the postseason. Brad Stevens will make the proper adjustments and the Celtics will come out fired-up after being embarrassed. James is the best player, but the Celtics are the better team. I'll take team over individual.
05-21-18	Diamondbacks -115 v. Brewers		2-4	Loss	-115	12 h 58 m	Show
The lay price is low enough to back Zach Greinke, who still is an elite pitcher and in great form with a 1.45 ERA during his last three starts. Chase Anderson is due to come off the DL to pitch for Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched as well as he did last season and isn't in good form having allowed nine runs in his last 10 2/3 innings. What's worrisome about Anderson is he's surrendered 10 homers already in 45 1/3 innings. The Diamondbacks know Anderson well, too, since he pitched for them in 2014 and 2015.
05-20-18	Indians +124 v. Astros	Top	1-3	Loss	-100	10 h 21 m	Show
It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity. I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco. The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest. Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park. The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.
05-20-18	Golden Knights v. Jets -137		2-1	Loss	-137	6 h 6 m	Show
This isn't a play against the Golden Knights. They've proven too good for that. But it is a play on the Jets. Winnipeg should have beaten Las Vegas on the road in Game 4 on Friday and I see the Jets winning at home today. Winnipeg has won 78 percent of its last 55 home games. The Jets outshot the Golden Knights, 37-29, in Game 4 and dominated time possession with 26 more shot attempts. The Jets normally would win 90 percent of the time with those statistics especially since some of their shots on goal were tough to stop. But Marc-Andre Fleury continued his super human goaltending. Fleury was good for the Penguins, but never this great. It's hard to believe he can stay this magnificent now that he'll be on the road.
05-20-18	Golden Knights v. Jets OVER 5.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-122	6 h 5 m	Show
I have tremendous respect for Marc-Andre Fleury. He has kept the Jets from winning during each of the last two games by making great save after great save. But now the series shifts back to Winnipeg and I see the Jets producing more goals. They have the star power with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, both of whom are playing at high levels. There have been six combined goals scored in three of Winnipeg's last five games and there should have been at least six goals in Las Vegas' 3-2 home win this past Friday. The Jets had 37 shots on goal during Game 4 with Fleury making countless great saves. The Golden Knights have an easier task facing goalie Connor Hellebuyuck, who is not having a good series. The Golden Knights have a strong fourth line - unlike other teams - and third-leading scorer David Perron is back in action. Las Vegas' top line of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith are playing well, too.
05-19-18	Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs	Top	86-116	Loss	-109	22 h 8 m	Show
Cleveland is in must-win mode down 0-2 in this Eastern Conference final. The problem for the Cavaliers is that aside from LeBron James, they aren't championship caliber. After James, the Celtics have the three best players in Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford. The Celtics also have a monster coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. This edge is magnified by the teams having not played since Tuesday. Boston has covered six of the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. James couldn't have played better than he did during Tuesday's Game 2 scoring 42 points, pulling down 10 rebounds and dishing off 12 assists. Still, the Cavaliers lost by 13 points. James had an off-game in Game 1 and the Cavaliers lost by 25 points. The oddsmaker isn't buying the Celtics' domination, though, making the Cavaliers a mid-sized favorte. Some of this thought process entails Cleveland playing harder, smarter and employing better defense. I do believe the Cavaliers will produce an "A" level effort. I think it's a leap of faith, though, to believe Lue can coach against Stevens and a knucklehead like J.R. Smith can come through. The line also is skewed high in Cleveland's favor because the Cavaliers are home now. Boston is 1-4 on the road in the playoffs. The Celtics are playing at a high level. They are not superstar-dependent like the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are going against a well-coach opponent that is playing excellent team basketball. I don't see the Celtics being intimidated, or rolling over, just because of a venue shift. The Celtics have, after all, covered 67 percent of their last 55 road contests. They are 4-0-1 ATS during their past five visits to Cleveland. Cleveland has proven bad at home and as a favorite. The Cavaliers have covered just 30 percent of their last 51 games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its 14 overall games and has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when laying points.
05-19-18	Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5		5-4	Loss	-100	11 h 6 m	Show
Baseball is still finding out about Freddy Peralta and Fernando Romero. These young pitchers have been dominant. Peralta made his big league debut a memorable one this past Sunday striking out 13 Rockies in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-3 victory. Peralta yieled just one hit and two walks while holding Colorado scoreless. That was at Coors Field, too, the premier hitter's park. The Twins certainly aren't familiar with Peralta. They're down two key bats with Miguel Sano out and Joe Mauer not likely to play either after getting injured on Friday. Romero has made three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings. He's surrendered one earned run and has 20 strikeouts.The Brewers are missing key bats, too, with Ryan Braun and Eric Thames out. Both pitchers catch a weather break as the wind will be blowing in at 13-14 mph.
05-18-18	Jets +100 v. Golden Knights	Top	2-3	Loss	-100	11 h 45 m	Show
The Golden Knights hold a 2-1 series lead on the Jets, but I'm not convinced Las Vegas is the better team. Winnipeg didn't play well early in Game 3 and couldn't recover. The Jets, though, did nearly tie the game while firing 33 shots on goal. It took super human goaltending by Marc-Andre Fleury to hold off the Jets. Winnipeg is road tested having won seven of its last 10 away matchups. They Jets have a 7-0 record when playing on Friday. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler give Winnipeg the two best offensive players on the ice. The Jets are fully capable of playing a better all-around game. They can take their game up a notch while Fleury can't continue to be this super human.
05-18-18	A's v. Blue Jays -114		3-1	Loss	-114	9 h 4 m	Show
Playing on unfamiliar Astroturf has something to do with it, but Oakland just doesn't fare well at Rogers Centre when playing the Blue Jays on the road. The A's beat the Blue Jays for just the second time in the last 14 games in Toronto last night. I don't see the A's repeating that in a pitching matchup of Brett Anderson versus Marco Estrada. Oakland is 7-19 in its last 26 games on Astroturf. Estrada is pitching on an extra day of rest. Toronto is 9-3 the past 12 times Estrada has thrown on five days rest. I've lost all hope with Anderson. He's too brittle and inconsistent. This marks his fourth start of the season. He's been a tease and sure enough he looked good in his first start. However, he's 0-2 with a 12.38 ERA during his last two starts. The Blue Jays know him well since Anderson made seven starts with Toronto last season compiling a 5.13 ERA.
05-17-18	Lightning v. Capitals -110	Top	4-2	Loss	-110	13 h 54 m	Show
It's very hard to beat the Capitals at Capital One Arena. Washington has won 70 percent of its last 133 home games. The Lightning have lost in 37 of their past 54 visits to Washington. Sharp coaching by Jon Cooper in changing up his lines. The combination of that and the Capitals being flat helped the Lightning defeat Washington, 4-2, on the road in Game 3 two days ago. The Capitals may have let up and been overconfident returning home after winning the first two games of the series at Tampa Bay. Expect a much more focused and stronger effort from the Capitals. They will be better prepared and could get an additional boost with the strong possibility star center Nicklas Backstrom returns after missing the last four games with a hand injury. He practiced on Wednesday.