The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. 

Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that.

I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. 

The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. 

Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. 

The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. 

This isn't going to be an easy sell with the 3-9 short-handed Hornets, losers of six in a row, and missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. But hear me out.

Miami is 4-7. The Heat haven't played a good game in two weeks. They've won only one game by more than seven points all season. Miami is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six games with losses during this span to the Kings, slow-starting Warriors, Pacers and Blazers.

The Heat might not have Tyler Herro, he's second on the team in points and rebounds. He's day-to-day with an ankle injury.

Terry Rozier has returned to Charlotte's lineup, so at least he's back. Recent pickup Dennis Smith Jr. has been doing well. The Hornets are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.

Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 home games.

The teams meet again in Miami on Saturday. So this could be a feeling out process between two struggling teams. The Heat don't deserve to be this high of a favorite.

Both of these teams have played more Overs than Unders this season. So I feel confident going Over in this matchup.

The Senators are 12th in scoring. They have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their last 10 games.

The Devils are a hot team with seven wins in a row. Their offense has produced 3 or more goals in seven of the last eight games.

New Jersey should be good for another high-scoring night facing an Ottawa defense that ranks 27th and has permitted 4 or more goals in five of the last six games.

Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia.

Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers.

This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...''

Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation.

Having Kyrie Irving suspended has aroused the underachieving Nets. Brooklyn is 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in the three games Irving has missed during his suspension. The Nets' lone defeat during this time frame came on the road to the Mavericks by two points. The Nets made a gallant comeback in that game, falling just short.

It's clear the Nets are playing with more urgency and discipline with Irving not on the court. This is proven in their defensive efforts. After surrendering an average of 120.3 points in their first seven games, the Nets have held their last four foes to an average of 96 points.

The Knicks are 2-4 during their last six games with their losses occurring to the Bucks by 11, Cavaliers by 13, Hawks by 13 and Celtics by 15. Their record would be 2-5 in their last seven games, but they managed to beat the shorthanded Hornets in overtime failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. The Knicks' other two wins during this seven-game span were against the 76ers by two points in a game in which Philadelphia didn't have Joel Embiid and versus the Timberwolves, who have a losing record.

The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past seven meetings.

The makeup of the Nets has changed with Kyrie Irving suspended. Irving has missed the past three games. During this time, the Nets have given up an average of just 92 points a game. They are playing with more discipline and urgency minus Irving.

Of course Irving's absence hurts the Nets' offense. Brooklyn has failed to break the 100-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Knicks have the second-best defensive field goal percentage in the league.

The Knicks just held the Timberwolves to 107 points in their last game. That's six points under Minnesota's scoring average.

This is more than just a division rivalry from these two neighbors. So there should be a lot of defensive intensity.

Vancouver has gone Over the total in its last four games. The Canucks are fifth in scoring, but 30th defensively. So it's easy to see why they've been an Over team. 

The Canucks are averaging 4.8 goals in their past six games. Montreal has a below average defense and is expected to start backup goalie Sam Montembeault. He's given up an average of 4.5 goals during his two starts this season. The Canadiens have permitted three or more goals in four of their last five games.

Montreal is averaging 3.4 goals in its last five games. The Canucks are expected to go with their starting goalie, Thatcher Demko. He hasn't played well, though, this season with a 3.90 goals-against-average. 

The Over is 8-3-1 during the past dozen meetings in this series. 

Admittedly this is anything but a marquee matchup. But I don't think it's too much to ask Marist to defeat American at home in the season-opener for both teams.

Marist is a middle-of-the-road MAAC team. The Red Foxes were 14-16 last season. 

But they are still better than American, which went 10-22 last season and finished last in the Patriot League.

After opening with three straight losses, Buffalo is very much in the bowl picture after going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games.

The Bulls have produced 34 or more points in three of their last four games. Buffalo QB Cole Snyder should have a big game against a Central Michigan secondary that ranks 79th in pass defense. The Chippewas give up 29 points per game, which ranks 87th.

Central Michigan has failed to score more than 18 points in four of its last six games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.

Two fully rested above average offenses square off here against bottom tier defenses.

Minnesota has scored three or more goals in nine of its 11 games. However, the Wild rank 25th defensively allowing 3.6 goals a game. Los Angeles has scored four goals in each of its last three home games.

The Kings rank 27th defensively, permitting 3.8 goals per game.

Both teams should have plenty of energy since they have been idle since Thursday.

Free Tuesday Play

Coyotes at Sabres Under 6 1/2 plus $1.05

The Under has cashed the last four times these teams have played in Buffalo. Only once in the last seven overall meetings between these teams has the total gone Over. I see that trend continuing here.

The Coyotes average 2.8 goals a game. They are last in shots. Arizona hasn't scored more than three goals in nine of its 11 games. The Sabres should be committed to a strong defensive effort after blowing a late lead in a 5-3 road loss to the Lightning this past Saturday. That was Buffalo's second consecutive defeat. The Sabres' intensity and concentration should be up.

The Sabres haven't allowed more than three goals during each of their past four home games.

This is the second of 14 straight road games for the Coyotes. They have games Thursday, Friday and Saturday. So there is no reason for them to push pace.

Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable.

The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number.

Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season.

San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season.

Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players.

When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State.

The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups.

Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too.

The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense.

A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games.

The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times.

Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either.

I'm going to lay this dead number anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. Even if Tannehill is under center, I don't see the Titans staying within two touchdowns of the Chiefs. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a second straight game because he's nowhere near being ready as an NFL starting quarterback.

The Titans were able to get away with Willis last week because they could totally rely on Derrick Henry against the Texans, who have the worst run defense by far in the NFL.

Kansas City has the No. 3 rush defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will be loading the box to stop Henry. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare having been idle last week. No coach is better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 19-3 during the regular season after being off the week before.

The Chiefs won't lack incentive. The Titans embarrassed them, 27-3, in Tennessee last year.

The Titans don't have the makeup to play from behind because their wide receiving group is so weak.

This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. 

The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. 

Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. 

Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. 

Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. 

The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. 

The Packers aren't finished yet. Lose here to the 1-6 Lions, though, and they are done. I don't see it happening.

Aaron Rodgers gets to face the worst defense in the league. The Lions give up the most points and yards per game. 

Green Bay's defense is capable of playing far better, especially against the run. The Lions hoisted up the white flag when they dealt away tight end T.J. Hockenson. Their best skill position player, D'Andre Swift, isn't physically right slowed by an ankle injury. 

Dan Campbell is a likely lame duck coach. He's compounded his team's serious defensive woes with terrible on-field coaching decisions. He could be the worst in-game coach in the NFC. 

We know the Jaguars are terrible again this season, losers of five in a row. 

But are the Raiders as bad as their 2-5 record? Their performance in a 24-0 road loss to the Saints this past Sunday might have been the worst of any team all season. It's called into question the merits of Josh McDaniels' coaching ability and Derek Carr being anything better than just mediocre. 

Prior to that shutout loss to New Orleans, the Raiders had outscored their opponents by 13 points. Their losses were by five points to the Chargers, six points to the Cardinals in overtime, two points to the 5-2 Titans and one point to the 5-2 Chiefs. 

Las Vegas was a playoff team last season. If the Raiders win here, they have a chance to reach .500 as their next two games are against the Colts and Broncos. 

Carr has been disappointing for much of the season. But Trevor Lawrence has yet to turn the corner. The Jaguars' lone decent skill position player is emerging Travis Eitenne. 

The Raiders afford Carr more weapons than Jacksonville with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs - the NFL's fourth-leading rusher - Hunter Renfroe and tight end Darren Waller, who could play for the first time in several weeks. I rank Daniel Carlson has the second-best kicker in the league behind only Justin Tucker. 

If you discount their last five games against the Colts, the Jaguars would be 4-24 ATS in their last 28 games. 

There's also a situational element to this game. The Raiders stayed in the South following their defeat to New Orleans. That was a smart move. The Jaguars had to come back from London following a disappointing loss to the Broncos. So they have to deal with jet lag. 

The perception is the Chargers are an explosive team. They were at the start of the season before injuries struck. Now they aren't. Take away star pass protector left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert is left playing dump off to Austin Ekeler. Herbert also is banged-up with a painful rib injury. He's thrown only six touchdown passes in his last five games.

The Falcons have cornerback injuries. But Herbert is just left with inexperienced wideouts and tight end Gerald Everett. So he's not going to be able to exploit that as much as the oddsmaker anticipates with this high of a total.

Atlanta is being looked upon as a high scoring team off a 37-point game against the Panthers. The Falcons, however, were averaging 20.7 points during their previous four games. They rank 29th in passing and 25th in total yards.

The Falcons are not about super-talented Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Instead they feature mundane reserve running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in Arthur Smith's caveman run-oriented, eat-up-clock slow moving offense. Marcus Mariota has been in the NFL for eight years. He's still more feared as a runner than passer.

This one is priced wrong so I'm going Under.

South Alabama has played one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country. That's going to catch up to the Jaguars in this matchup. I wasn't a fan of Clay Helton when he was at USC. But he's done a fine job with Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 5-3 with all three of their losses coming on the road. They are 3-0 SU and ATS at home.

One of those Georgia Southern victories was 45-38 against James Madison as a 13-point 'dog. The Eagles produced nearly 600 yards of total offense in that game. Georgia Southern is averaging 36.9 points and ranks 11th in total yards. South Alabama has impressive defensive numbers. But those are skewed because of numerous weak offenses the Jaguars have faced.

Besides home field, the Eagles also have another scheduling factor in their favor - they were idle last week. Georgia Southern has a strong history against the Jaguars winning and covering the last four times it hosted them. The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games against the Jaguars.

Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under.

Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game. 
Neither team has a strong offense. Kentucky ranks 98th in scoring at 23.9 points. Missouri is 97th in scoring at 23.9 points per game. Each team plays at a very slow pace. The run-oriented Wildcats, in fact, have the slowest tempo in the country. 

The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too. 

There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain.

TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game.

I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs.

Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points.

Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home.

Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast. 

That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season. 

Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing. 

This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic. 

The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups. 

Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series. 

This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent. 

The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas. 

Almost always disrespected, the Pistons have been a strong money-maker covering 23 of their last 34 games going back to last season for 68 percent. 

This spot sets up well for Detroit to cover again hosting the Cavaliers.

Cleveland is off a dramatic 114-113 home overtime win against the Celtics from Wednesday. Following this game, the Cavaliers head to the West Coast for four games. So this not only is a flat sport for the Cavaliers but their concentration and focus could be off, too. 

The Pistons are battle-tested having just played two games against the Bucks, the lone unbeaten team in the NBA, nearly winning one of the games. 
The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS during their past 10 away games. They also have failed to cover in four of their last five games against Detroit. 

The Kings have scored four or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. Expect them to continue their hot-scoring ways against the Blackhawks.
Chicago has suspect goaltending right now. The Blackhawks have surrendered 17 goals in their last four games. 

The Blackhawks, though, have been hot offensively producing at least three goals in seven of their last eight games.

The Blackhawks also have gone Over in nine of their last 12 home games.

Justin Verlander is a great pitcher, a likely Hall of Famer. Except when it comes to the World Series. Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in eight World Series starts. That ugly pattern stayed true in Game 1 when he gave up five runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss.

The Phillies are going with their least dependable rotation starter, Noah Syndergaard. He had a 3.94 regular season ERA and is far removed from the once feared strikeout machine. The Phillies showed their lack of confidence in Syndergaard when they decided to go with Ranger Suarez in Monday's Game 3 instead of Syndergaard when the game originally was rained out. Not only does Syndergaard allow many base runners, but he's one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal on.

These are two well-above-average offenses playing in a hitter's park. Forget yesterday's no-hitter. This is a new game with new pitchers, both of whom have vulnerabilities.

Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite?

Nope.

Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? 

The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. 

Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games.  

The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. 

How can a team with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook be that bad at 1-5? Answer: The Lakers aren't that bad. Their early shooting has been off. LA ranks 29th in field goal percentage and last in 3-point accuracy. 

Now I'm not saying the Lakers are ready to join the elites, but they finally have some confidence and momentum after beating the Nuggets, 121-110, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have had ample time to prepare and be ready to host the Pelicans.

Playing the Pelicans always is a big deal for Davis. He played seven seasons for New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Brandon Ingram, their second-best player. 

I don't believe the Lakers should be home underdogs here.

Only three teams smacked more homers during the season than the Astros. The Phillies just clubbed five homers in a 7-0 win on Tuesday. I question Christian Javier's postseason dependability and I feel Aaron Nola is overrated when pitching at home where his ERA is 3.53.

So I'm going Over this total with two well above average offenses in a hitter's ballpark. 

Javier had a 12.00 ERA in three appearances against the Braves in last year's World Series. This is his first World Series start. 

Nola isn't in good form giving up 11 runs in his past two starts spanning nine innings. 

The Cavaliers are a team on the rise with five straight victories. One of these wins was a 132-123 road overtime victory against the Celtics in Boston this past Friday.

Boston, though, is in a higher class than Cleveland. The Celtics are in revenge mode and have underrated defender Grant Williams for this rematch. Williams missed Friday's game.

The Celtics are proven road warriors going 21-8-1 (72 percent) in their last 30 road games. The superior team with high motivation should succeed in this spot. That's the Celtics.

Strange to see both of these two teams under .500 through seven games this season. Defense has been the problem with the Warriors. Golden State ranks last in the NBA in defense giving up 122 points a game. The Heat are better ranking 11th allowing 110.6, but that's still below their high defensive standards.

Change is coming and I see it occurring here. The intensity should be up a notch with both riding two-game losing streaks. The Warriors are off an embarrassing, 128-114, road loss to the lowly Pistons from Sunday. Miami also is off a bad loss, 119-113, to the Kings this past Saturday.

Last season the two teams ranked third and fourth, respectively, defensively each surrendering 105 points a game. Each team has their same players. Klay Thompson is off to his usual slow start. So I see things becoming more normal.

The Warriors defeated the Heat, 123-110, at home last Thursday. Golden State shot 50 percent from the floor and 87 percent from the foul line in that game. I trust Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, one of the better defensive coaches, to make adjustments.

The Heat are 26th in scoring at 108 points per game.

Stephen Nover Free Tuesday Play

Phillies plus $1.13 hosting Astros 

 The Phillies have enough going for them in this Game 3 of the World Series to present good value as a home underdog.

Philadelphia lacks Houston's postseason experience, but won't lack confidence after coming from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Astros, 6-5, in Game 1. The Phillies are home now with the series tied 1-1.

The Phillies being in Philadelphia means nearly 50,000 vociferous fans in the stadium and a return to their usual outdoors elements. The Phillies play much better at home being 18 games above .500 there compared to being just one game above .500 in road contests.

Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for Houston. The Phillies have won the last seven times they faced a righty starter.

The Phillies will go with Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard, who they were going to start in this Game 3 before it was postponed Monday. Obviously the Phillies feel better starting Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the postseason.

So much for the Jazz playing the lottery game. Utah may be the biggest surprise in the NBA going 5-2. One of those victories came this past Saturday when the Jazz nipped the Grizzlies, 124-123.

Memphis blew a four-point lead with less than two minutes left. The Grizzlies also were minus their superstar guard, Ja Morant, who had a non-COVID-19 illness. He's questionable for today's game. But even if Morant sits out again, I still like the superior Grizzlies in this short revenge spot.

The Grizzlies are a deep team. They can beat many teams without Morant, including the Jazz. Desmond Bane is an emerging star and backup point guard Tyus Jones is underrated.

The Jazz put forth a great effort and deserved to beat Memphis two days ago. Now it's the Grizzlies' turn to go all out.

I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals.

Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target.

The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests.

Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack.

The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland.

The Packers' defense looks far better on paper than it does on the field. Despite facing four below average quarterbacks in their last four matchups, including two backups and Zach Wilson, the Packers still are giving up 25.2 points during these past four games.

Now Green Bay draws Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that is No. 2 in scoring at 29.3 points and first in total offense averaging 440.8 yards. The Bills are fresh, too, having been idle last week.

Safe to say the Bills will score their share of points. But can the Packers contribute to getting this total Over? Yes, they can.

Despite all the negative publicity and not having Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers has put up respectable numbers entering this week sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 11 and 10th in passing yards with 1,597.

Rodgers is going to have to keep up with Allen. That's especially the case if the Bills should build a lead, which is expected. The Packers won't have Allen Lazard, who has been their top wide receiver. But they do get Sammy Watkins back. Watkins won't lack motivation going against his former team. The Bills have multiple injuries in their secondary, down two studs in Tre'Davious and Micah Hyde.

I'm expecting each team to tally at least three goals in a battle of two top-eight offenses.

Minnesota has scored three or more goals in all but one of its eight games. The Blackhawks have given up at least three goals in four of their last five games.

Chicago has scored three or more goals in each of its past six games, reaching four or more goals in five of those contests. Minnesota ranks 29th defensively.

The projected starting goalies don't look imposing either with Alex Stalock facing Marc-Andre Fleury, who is off to a terrible start.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback. But he's savvy enough to know how to distribute the ball to his weapons - and he just gained a monster weapon in Christian McCaffrey.

The Rams' defense is far from dominant, surrendering 22 or more points in four of their six games.

Look for the Rams' offense to pick up following their bye. Sean McVay should have some new wrinkles and a healthier offensive line with center Brian Allen returning.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will hurt a 49ers defense that has been dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw joining Arik Armstead on the sidelines.

Through the first seven games, this has been one of the most bizarre NFL seasons. The Giants are one reason for this being 6-1.

Saquon Barkley is back to being very good. The Giants' defense is underrated and Brian Daboll would draw my Coach of the Year vote right now.

But the Giants are no 6-1 team. They have been outgained by 105 yards on the season, have just one more first down than their opponents and have only outscored their foes by less than three points per game.

Seattle is an improved team, too. Geno Smith is playing the finest ball of his career with five multi-touchdown games. Kenneth Walker III already has moved into being the top candidate for rookie of the year honors having rushed for 353 yards the last three weeks scoring four TD's during this span.

The schedule and situation set up much better for the Seahawks. So does the Giants' injury situation.

I don't see the Giants being able to take full advantage of the Seahawks' weak defense due to a cluster injury problem at wide receiver, underrated tight end Daniel Bellinger being out along with offensive right tackle Evan Neal.

The Seahawks have one of the stronger home fields. They will get plenty of crowd support being the NFC West Division leaders.

The Giants have their bye next week. They'll need it. The Giants have had to cross the globe during the past four weeks with games in London, New York, Florida and now Seattle. That's a lot of mileage and cross-country traveling. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have been on the West Coast for their past two games.

Tennessee wins ugly, but they are the best team in the AFC South Division and superior to the Texans at nearly every position along with having a better head coach.

If you discount their games against the Jaguars, the Texans would have two victories in their last 25 games.

The Titans should be fine with Malik Willis at quarterback replacing Ryan Tannehill. The playbook will be shrunk, but the Titans don't run an intricate offense anyways. There's is no chance now of the Titans overlooking the Texans, or coming in overconfident, now that Willis will be making his NFL debut.

The Texans have the worst talent in the NFL. They average fewer than 18 points a game and rank 31st in total defense.

Oh, yes, the Texans also have the worst run defense in the league. That's not good when facing Derrick Henry, who's back in top form rushing for more than 100 yards in each of his last three games, nor is it good facing a running quarterback in Willis.

Expect a close game here. That's usually the case with Minnesota. Of the Vikings' last 12 victories, 10 have been one possession results. 
The Cardinals are getting better offensively. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins from suspension is huge for them and Kyler Murray. 

Minnesota's 5-1 record comes with warts. The Vikings are 2-4 ATS, including 0-3 when laying more than a field goal. They have outscored their foes by just 21 points. 

The Cardinals have the speed to take advantage of the Vikings' slow cornerbacks. Minnesota ranks 27th in total defense and 28th in pass defense. 
Arizona has played better on the road than at home the past couple of years going 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS during its last 12 regular-season away games. 

I want Bill Belichick off an embarrassing 33-14 home loss to the Bears this past Monday night. I'm fine with whomever Belichick goes with at quarterback, Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones. 

The Jets are improved this season. Won't argue that point. But they've also been fortunate to face a bunch of stiffs at quarterback, drawing Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson and Bret Rypien. 

Breece Hall was carrying New York's offense. It's a real hit to the Jets' morale to lose him for the season. Hall had accounted for 681 all-purpose yards and five TD's. He was propping up Zach Wilson. The Jets have some good wide receivers, but Wilson is too inaccurate to take advantage. Belichick has a history of taking advantage of inexperienced QB's such as second-year man Wilson. 

The Patriots have owned the Jets defeating them 12 times in a row. I'll take the money line in anticipation of that streak reaching 13. 

Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. 

Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. 

The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. 

This is a buy-low spot on the superior Penguins. Pittsburgh is at low ebb having lost three in a row. This is the Penguins' finale on a five-game road trip.

Pittsburgh's first two defeats during this losing streak occurred against the Oilers and Flames. No shame in that. But then the Penguins fell, 5-1, to the Canucks last night. Unacceptable and Penguins coach Mike Sullivan called into question his team's effort. That should be a kick in the pants for the Penguins. The energy should be there since they were idle the previous two days.

Seattle is 1-4 at home this season.

Michigan is a real power this season. The Wolverines have sights set on bigger things such as winning the national championship.

Michigan State has more modest goals. This is the Spartans' Super Bowl. Michigan State gets sky high for this in-state, Big Ten rivalry matchup far more than Michigan does. It's not a coincidence the Spartans have covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings, including winning straight-up each of the past two years.

The Spartans are a disappointing 3-4, but they regained some lost confidence by defeating Wisconsin in their last game. Michigan State QB Payton Thorne had his most efficient game of the season in that victory.

A 113-93 road loss to the previously winless Magic on Friday certainly looks bad for the Hornets. So it's easy to understand why the defending world champion Warriors are double-digit road favorites against Charlotte.

But beating the NBA is about going against the grain. The Hornets are a feisty, underrated group. Steve Clifford should have a motivated bunch here after Friday's embarrassment. It's just the Hornets' second home game of the season. Charlotte is capable of hanging in. The Hornets own blowout road victories against the Hawks and Spurs. They also nearly upset the Knicks on the road before losing in overtime. All three of those teams are above .500.

The Warriors just played games against the Suns and Heat. They play again Sunday against the Pistons. Steve Kerr is experimenting with his rotation. This game is more festive with Stephen Curry returning to Charlotte than it is intense for Golden State.

Here's an interesting quote from Kerr, ''We always have to have the big picture in mind and pace our guys through the regular season,'' he said.

Look for the Hornets to keep this one in the single-digit range.

Both from a matchup perspective and trend/angles standpoint the Under seems the right play given this high of a total.

Coastal Carolina has gone Under in six of its last seven road games, while the Under has won in seven of Marshall's last eight home games.

Marshall ranks in the top-11 in defensive scoring, fewest yards allowed and run defense. Coastal Carolina hasn't seen a defense this good all season.

The Chanticleers are not a good defensive team, but they are opportunistic ranking 31st in takeaways. They are facing a feeble Marshall offense that ranks 82nd in scoring averaging 26.6 points and is 109th in passing yards.

The tempo is going to be slow, too, which is a huge plus for the Under.

Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender.

The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games.

Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points.

The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion.

The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four.

Minnesota is run-oriented with a weak passing game. Rutgers ranks sixth in the nation in run defense and eighth in total defense. The Scarlet Knights permit just 88 yards rushing per game and 3.0 per rush attempt. The Gophers may not even have their starting QB, Tanner Morgan. He's questionable with a concussion.

The Gophers are strong defensively giving up the 10th-fewest points in the country at 16.4. Rutgers has cleared the 17-point barrier only once in its last five games. The Scarlet Knights rank 113th in yards per game.

Not surprisingly neither team plays at a fast tempo. In fact, they are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. So the clock will keep moving.

Not only are the Bucks the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, but right now they are the best team in the league with the premier player in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The 3-0 Bucks, the league's lone unbeaten team, ranks first in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage. Antetokounmpo entered Thursday leading the NBA in scoring at 36 points per game.

The Knicks are 3-1. However, their victories were against the 1-4 Pistons, the 0-5 Magic and against the shorthanded Hornets in overtime when Charlotte was minus injured LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin.

Now the Knicks are stepping way up in class and they're on the road. New York has lost its last three games to the Bucks by an average of 14 points. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen meetings versus the Knicks.

Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. 

The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. 

East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. 

BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. 

The Grizzlies have a strong track record when taking on sub .500 teams covering 19 of the last 26 times in that role for 73 percent.

Sacramento is 0-3 under new coach Mike Brown. The Kings went 0-3 against Memphis last season with their average loss being by 23.7 points. The Grizzlies are riding a six-game win streak against the Kings.

The Grizzlies are several rungs higher than the Kings, but don't generate much respect in the marketplace. They have an emerging star in Desmond Bane to go with Ja Morant, who is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 35.3 points.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the Sun Belt Conference. I give Louisiana Lafayette a slight edge on defense and a strong checkmark at quarterback. The Ragin' Cajuns also get their best runner, Chris Smith, back after he missed the last two games. Smith averages 5.7 yards a carry after averaging 5.6 the past two seasons. 

The Ragin' Cajuns have gotten turned around after a three-game losing streak that followed opening 2-0. They upset Marshall, 23-13, on the road two weeks ago and then rolled past Arkansas State, 38-18. 

Chandler Fields began the season as Lafayette's starting quarterback. He's back from injury, but Ben Woolridge has played so well that he remains the starter. Woolridge has completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 986 yards with an impressive 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's played exceptionally well the last two weeks.

The difference in quarterbacks is the Ragin' Cajuns' big edge. 

Southern Mississippi also lost its starting quarterback, Ty Keyes. Zach Wilcke replaced him and hasn't been impressive. Only once in six games has he passed for more than 200 yards. He also has a 7-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio and has been sacked 12 times. 

The Golden Eagles rank 13th out of 14 Sun Belt teams in yards per play. Lafayette also has the better defensive numbers ranking 21st in the nation in scoring defense and 33rd in total defense. Southern Miss ranks 35th in scoring defense and 36th in total defense.

These two teams just met at Edmonton Saturday and the Blues blanked the Oilers, 2-0, behind goalie Jordan Binnington. The Blues played a highly-conservative game bottling up Edmonton superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. 

There's no reason for the Blues to deviate from that strategy hosting the Oilers today especially off a bad 4-0 road loss to Winnipeg two days ago. Binnington is expected to be back in net for St. Louis after backup goalie Thomas Greiss faced the Jets. Binnington has had the Oilers' number with a 3-0 lifetime mark and a 1.65 goals against average and 94 percent save ratio. 
 
The Blues are averaging just 1.6 goals in regulation during their last three games. 

The Bucks are serious championship contenders with Giannis Antetokounmpo arguably the best player in the league. The Nets are not a good team right now. They rank last in 3-point defense and 28th in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. Ben Simmons has yet to fit in.

Given all this plus the Bucks being rested and ready having last played on Saturday, I am confident laying this shorter-than-expected number with Milwaukee.

Antetokounmpo has a strong history against the Nets with a career average of nearly 25 points per game.

The 1-2 Nets haven't looked good. They lost at home by 22 points to the Pelicans, beat the Raptors by four at home and then lost by 10 to the Grizzlies on the road despite strong performances from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined to make 28 of 44 shots (64 percent) from the floor. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS following a loss going back to last season.

The Kings are one of those rare play-better-on-the-road-than-at-home teams. They had a better away mark last season and that pattern has held up early this season as they are 3-2 on the road, 0-2 at home.

LA just concluded a five-game, eight-day East Coast trip this past Saturday night. The Kings are 2-10 the past 12 times at home following a road trip of a week or more.

Tampa Bay matches up well to Los Angeles. The results prove that. The Lightning have won 11 of the past 12 times.

The Kings are likely to draw star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, too. He's expected to start in goal against the Kings with backup Brian Elliott starting on Wednesday when the Lightning plays at the Ducks.

So not only are the Lightning the superior team, but they have history and situation going in their favor, too. The price is low enough to back Tampa Bay.

Portland is sitting fat and happy at 3-0 after coming from seven points down with under two minutes to play to defeat the Lakers, 106-104, on the road Sunday.

Now the Trail Blazers return to Portland where they'll find the Nuggets waiting for them.

Denver was stunned by the surprising 3-0 Jazz in its opener. Since then, the Nuggets have gotten straight upsetting the Warriors on the road and dispatching the Thunder at home this past Saturday.

Damian Lillard is off to a great start, but the Nuggets have more star power than Portland with Nikola Jokic, a healthy Jamal Murray and emerging Michael Porter.

Denver is the superior team and has matched up well to Portland beating the Trail Blazers in seven of the past nine meetings, including going 3-1 last season. The Nuggets have covered five of the past six in the series.

The Maple Leafs are 4-2 the same as Las Vegas. Toronto has won three of its games by one goal. The Maple Leafs are capable of losing to any team. That was proven when they lost, 4-2, to the Coyotes as more than a 5-to-1 favorite. 

The Golden Knights are trying to prove they still are a viable playoff team. They've been getting strong goalie play, which was a question entering the season. 

Las Vegas lost, 3-2, to Colorado at home this past Saturday. Toronto opened its five-game road trip with a 4-1 victory against Winnipeg this past Saturday.

I find value on Las Vegas in this spot as a home 'dog. 

Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them.

The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has  been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. 

Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. 

The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. 

The Steelers have long been a great Under team on the road. The Under has cashed in 70 percent of their last 65 away games. The Dolphins have gone Under in 11 of their last 16 overall games.

Look for these strong trends to hold up here.

Kenny Pickett has cleared concussion protocol so he'll get the start. Perhaps Pickett one day might be a decent NFL starting QB. He isn't right now with a 67 passer rating and a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Miami has a strong pass rush and the Steelers have a below average offensive line. Only two teams score fewer points per game than Pittsburgh's 16.2 average.

The Steelers held Tom Brady and Tampa Bay to only 18 points last week despite missing four of their top five defensive backs. They should get most of those players back, including former Dolphin and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's a difference-maker. The Steelers showed against the Buccaneers that they have underrated depth in their secondary.

Tua Tagovailoa is back to start for Miami. The Steelers should be well prepared for him thanks to linebackers and special defensive assistant coach Brian Flores, who was the Dolphins head coach last year. The heady Fitzpatrick also knows his old team well.

This total is too short given the 49ers' multiple injuries on defense and also because Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two finest performances of the season and now facing a mediocre Chiefs defense.

First, though, let's discuss the Chiefs' offense. Have the Chiefs missed Tyreek Hill? No, they rank first in the NFL in scoring at 29.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is either the first or second-best QB in football depending on how you feel about Josh Allen. Mahomes is my choice.

Next up is Mahomes drawing the 49ers' defense at a great time. San Francisco has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line AND defensive backfield. The 49ers are down defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead. Nick Bosa is questionable with a groin injury. He won't be 100 percent if he plays. San Francisco is even more vulnerable in the secondary. Because of injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward and Charvarius Ward, the 49ers could be starting a rookie fifth-rounder and second-year fifth-rounder at the corners. Safety Talanoa Hufanga could be out, too, because of a concussion.

I see a shootout here because the 49ers are clicking on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two best games of the season throwing for a combined 549 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions the last two weeks.

The Chiefs give up 24.8 points a game. They rank 27th in pass defense. Kansas City only has four takeaways.

It would be an extra boost for the 49ers if their starting tackles, left tackle Trent Williams and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, are able to play. There is optimism that both will be ready. Even if they aren't, the 49ers' attack is based on running and short passes.

Only once in six games have the Broncos permitted more than 17 points during regulation. They could have the best defense in the NFL, considering how bad their offense is, ranking second in fewest yards per play, third in defensive total yards and fourth in scoring defense.

Second-year QB Zach Wilson continues to show nothing holding the Jets' offense hostage.  

Russell Wilson has the credibility, but his level of play hasn't been that much higher than Zach Wilson's. The Broncos have scored just seven TD's in six games with the worst red zone offense in the league. Russell Wilson is dealing with injuries to his shoulder and groin. If he can't go, the Broncos would be forced to start game-manager Brett Rypien, which would be even better for the Under. 

The Jets' defense is much improved, ranking ninth in total defense. They just held the Packers to 10 points at Green Bay. 

Weather is a factor here as well with heavy winds expected and a chance of rain. 

The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly.

An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league.

Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits.

This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers.

(Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.)

The Bengals' offensive line and Joe Mixon have played much better the past two games. Their improvement is huge for Joe Burrow, who was 28-for-37 for 300 yards and 3 TD's in the Bengals' 30-26 victory against the Saints last Sunday.

Expect to see the Bengals continue their high-scoring ways as they draw an Atlanta defense that doesn't rush the passer well - just eight sacks - and could be without both of its starting cornerbacks. Casey Hayward is out with a shoulder injury. A.J. Terrell is questionable with a thigh injury. The Falcons rank 31st in pass defense.

The Falcons have been surprisingly efficient offensively scoring 26 or more points in four of their games. They rank eighth in scoring at 24.3 behind a strong ground attack that is No. 3 in the NFL. The Falcons should be able to run on the Bengals, whose run defense is down two of their most underrated players - nose tackle D.J. Reader and linebacker Logan Wilson. Cincinnati ranks 21st in run defense.

The oddsmaker still must think Randy Moss is playing for Marshall. The Thundering Herd aren't good offensively. They're averaging 10 points during their last two Sun Belt Conference games. That was against Troy and Louisiana Lafayette, with one touchdown against Lafayette coming in garbage time. 

Marshall is heavily run-oriented. James Madison happens to have the top run defense in the nation. 

The oddsmaker might have been influenced by James Madison losing, 45-38, to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. Marshall is a much better defensive team and is nearly as up-tempo as Georgia Southern. 

The Thundering Herd rank 17th in scoring defense giving up 17.3 points a game. They are 13th in total defense holding foes to 290.3 yards per game. The Dukes do not play at a fast tempo especially when in the lead, which should be the case since they are around two-touchdown favorites. 

(Note: The total has come down since I first released the play. This has hurt the line value, but the handicap still holds as I don't see these teams reaching 50 points.)

The Badgers are a very dangerous 3-4 team. Look for Wisconsin to take its frustrations out at home on Purdue, a team they have beaten 15 straight times going 12-3 ATS. All but three of those 15 wins have been by 17 points or more.

The Badgers have shown improvement under new coach Jim Leonhard. They've outgained opponents by nearly one yard per play. Purdue, on the other hand, has outgained its opponents by just 0.3 yards per play. The Boilermakers have played a much easier schedule than Wisconsin in building a 5-2 record.

Northern Illinois has gone Over in six of its seven games this season. The Huskies' offense has taken off averaging 36.3 points in their last three games. Rocky Lombardi returned last week for the Huskies after being out. That's just another plus because he's one of the best QB's in the MAC.

He faces an Ohio defense that ranks second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed per play. The Bobcats surrender an average of 36.9 points a game. 

This isn't just going to be one-way scoring. Ohio will put up a lot of points on Northern Illinois behind Kurtis Rourke, who could be the top QB in the MAC. He's completed 70 percent of his throws and has accounted for 17 TD's in seven games. The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in passing yards. 

The Huskies rank 116th in scoring defense allowing 34.3 points and also rank 116th in pass defense. They are not going to be able to slow down Rourke. 

The Over has cashed in each of Ohio's last five home games. 

I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week.

SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense.

Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play.

The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread.

There have been some wild games in the American Athletic Conference. Houston and Navy both were involved in two of them last week. The Cougars came back from a 26-7 fourth quarter deficit to nip Memphis, 33-32, while Navy scored 20 fourth-quarter points while gaining 510 yards in a 40-34 loss to SMU.

The Cougars are within one point of having every one of their games go Over. They average 31.3 points and give up 33.7 points. All six of Houston's opponents have scored a minimum of 27 points against the Cougars.

Houston QB Clayton Tune gets to face a Navy pass defense that ranks 111th.

The Midshipmen have scored a combined 87 points in their last two games against Tulsa and SMU. They are the fifth-best rushing team in the nation.

Yet the marketplace has been on the Under. The total has been knocked down enough where it has now become an excellent value play on the Over.

The Blackhawks aren't going to win many games this season. But they capped off their three-game West Coast trip with a victory against the Sharks. Now they are in Chicago for their home opener, fat and happy. The Blackhawks last played on Saturday. Six days between games is too long, especially so early in the season.

The Red Wings are the better team. They've been off for three days after suffering a 5-4 overtime victory against the Kings on Monday. Detroit had won its first two games beating the Canadiens and Devils on the road. The Red Wings will be refreshed like the Blackhawks, but not as rusty.

Detroit has improved its depth through free agency and trades. The Red Wings aren't so dependent on just one line anymore. They can handle bad teams such as the Blackhawks.

The Celtics survived a near-miss 3-pointer by Jimmy Butler to beat the Heat in Miami during Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now it's a new season. The Celtics remain very good. They aren't as worn down either as when they played Miami during the Eastern finals. 

Miami isn't so good, beginning this new season. The Heat lost to the Bulls, 116-108, at home in their season-opener this past Wednesday. Chicago won despite not having its starting backcourt with both Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine out. 

The Celtics opened with an impressive, 126-117, home win against the 76ers. Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston shot 56.1 percent from the floor against the 76ers while committing only 11 turnovers. Miami isn't at Boston's level right now.

The Celtics finished last season 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) on the road. They have covered in five of their last six visits to Miami. 

The Pistons often are undervalued. That was the case last season when they finished with the eighth-best ATS mark in the NBA. It's the case again in their game today against the Knicks.

New York finished eight games below .500 last season, missing the playoffs for the eighth time in nine years.

The Knicks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 home games, while the Pistons are a sparkling 11-1 ATS during their past dozen road games.

The Knicks shouldn't be laying this many points.

It usually takes a red-hot pitcher for a playoff team to advance to the World Series. The Padres have that in Joe Musgrove. And for good measure the Padres also have a sizzling closer, Josh Hader.

The pressure is on the Phillies in this Game 3 as this NLCS goes from San Diego to Philadelphia. The Padres came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the series at one apiece with an 8-5 victory this past Wednesday.

San Diego is 18-4 following an off-day. The Padres have Musgrove and a rested Hader going for them in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. He's been absolutely dominant during the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Hader is back to being an elite closer. He's struck out the last eight batters he's faced.

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen can't match that. Suarez has one playoff start, which came against the Braves. Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled him in that game after 3 1/3 innings after Suarez had given up three hits and five walks.

New Orleans isn't good anymore on defense. The Saints have yielded at least 20 points in every one of their games. They are giving up an average of 30 points during their last three games. Just two weeks ago, the Saints were lit up by Geno Smith in a 39-32 win.

The Cardinals have yet to reach their stride offensively. However, they have moved the ball ranking fifth in total yards. Kyler Murray should be in line for a big game. The Saints have only one interception and will be minus their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.

Murray lost Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is off the suspended list and newcomer Robbie Anderson provides a deep threat.

I'm fine with whomever the Saints start at quarterback whether it's Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston or even Taysom Hill. The key for the Saints is Alvin Kamara, he should come up big against a mediocre Cardinals defense. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is back from injury to bolster the Saints' downfield passing attack. Tight end Juwan Johnson is an underrated pass catcher for the Saints.

Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog.

It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach.

I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott.

The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line.

"We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season.

It has been three days since the Coyotes stunned the Maple Leafs on the road, 4-2. Toronto was better than a 5-1 favorite in that game. 

The Maple Leafs conclude their four-game homestand here looking for redemption following that stunning loss to Arizona. 

Dallas is playing well. But the Stars are 2-6 in their last eight road games, going back to last season. Toronto is 40-16 in its last 56 home games.

The Stars have lost in seven of their past nine visits to Toronto. 

The class difference between these two teams is much wider than this point spread.

The Nuggets are serious championship contenders. They also are healthy, something they rarely were last season.

The Jazz are serious contenders, too, - for the first overall draft pick. Gone is coach Quin Snyder. Also departed are Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz are in full rebuild mode.

Utah didn't look good during preseason. The team has huge holes. The Nuggets want to start fast so they'll be out for a lopsided victory here.

Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are nice players, but Toronto doesn't have the star power it did when it won the NBA championship in 2019 behind Kawhi Leonard. Still, the Raptors are a solid, well-coached team under Nick Nurse. 

I like them at home against the Cavaliers. 

Cleveland made a huge off-season acquisition getting Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers are not the bottom-feeder they once were. They are a borderline playoff team who are a work-in-progress right now. 

The Raptors have covered five of the last six times they've hosted the Cavaliers. 

There are no secrets here at this late stage of the season. Aaron Nola is pitching well. Nothing against him. But I want Blake Snell going for me at this short price. The Padres haven't lost two in a row during their past 13 games. If the Padres lose here, they go to Philadelphia for three games down 0-2. 

Snell has playoff experience, which Nola doesn't. Snell has pitched in 11 postseason games and has a 2.89 ERA in those contests. 

Snell is pitching his finest since he won the Cy Young Award in 2018. How good has Snell been? Try this: Last six starts - five earned runs spanning 31 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts during this time frame. 

This spot sets up extremely well for Nashville. The Predators last played on Saturday. They host the Kings, who edged the Red Wings, 5-4, in overtime last night. Not only are the Kings playing without rest, but are in action for the fourth time in six days.

The rested Predators should be extremely focused having lost both ends of a home-and-away series to the Stars during their two previous games. Nashville has the offense to take advantage of a weak Kings defense that has allowed 18 goals in their last four games. Predators goalie Juuse Saros is superior to either of LA's goalies, Jonathan Quick or Cal Peterson.

Nashville has defeated the Kings in nine of the past 11 meetings. The Predators have won the last four times they've hosted the Kings.

The market is down on the Celtics because of the season suspension of coach Ime Udoka and injuries to Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari.

What's being overlooked is the Celtics still have their All-Star wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, a shored-up backcourt with the addition of underrated all-around player Malcolm Brogdon and upper-tier role players Grant Williams, Derrick White, Al Horford and Marcus Smart. 

Joe Mazzulla, Boston's new head coach, has minimal head coaching experience but will be helped and guided by Brad Stevens. 

The Celtics finished 28-7 last season. They outscored their opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions during their last 32 games. 

The 76ers finished last season 3-12-1 ATS on the road. Short price to lay with the superior team especially at home. 

Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos.

Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks.

Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots.

The schedule maker didn't do Colorado any favors. The Avalanche opened their season rolling past the Blackhawks, 5-2, at home this past Wednesday. But right after that game the Avalanche had to travel to Calgary where they lost, 5-3, to the Flames.

Colorado has been idle since. The high-scoring Avalanche should have plenty of energy and fire power to take advantage of Minnesota's early defensive trouble.

The Wild have surrendered seven goals each to the Rangers and Kings to open their season. Marc-Andre Fleury has looked terrible in net. He was replaced in both games by backup Filip Gustavsson. The Avalanche have been deadly on the power play going 5-for-10 through their first two games.

Free Monday Play

Avalanche-Wild Over 6 1/2 minus $1.07

You better be playing solid defense if you're playing the Avalanche. Minnesota hasn't. The Wild have allowed seven goals in each of their first two games. I've never seen goalie Marc-Andre Fleury start so cold. He's been pulled in both games having given up 8.36 goals per game with a .776 save percentage. The Wild are alarmed enough to start backup goalie Filip Gustavsson today.

Colorado was the fourth-highest scoring team in the league last season. The Avalanche were the No. 1 scoring team during the playoffs. They are averaging 4.0 goals during their first two games this season. 

The Avalanche hasn't been getting good goalie work either, though. Their net is patrolled by a pair of backups, Pavel Francouz and Alexandar Georgiev, who likely will draw the start here. 

The Wild have scored nine goals in their first two games against the Rangers and Kings. 

So it shouldn't be asking too much of each team to produce at least three goals. 

I'm not expecting Dak Prescott to play in this game. But that shouldn't matter. The Cowboys can upset the Eagles straight-up based on their tremendous defense, the Eagles being banged-up on their offensive line and the quiet efficiency of Cooper Rush.

Dan Quinn would be my candidate as the top defensive coordinator in the NFL this season. Dallas has held each of its first five opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have held their last four opponents - Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams - to an average of 13.2 points. The Cowboys have the second-most sacks in the league. The Eagles could be down three offensive line starters due to injuries. Micah Parsons is becoming a dominant defensive force.

I think Jalen Hurts is a better fantasy quarterback than real one. Let's see how he fares against an elite defense behind a beat-up offensive line. I question his downfield accuracy.

Rush isn't fancy. He can't run like Hurts. All Rush does is win. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in Rush's starts because he smartly plays within himself knowing he has skill position talent around with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the most elusive of any of the Cowboys.

The Cowboys have won and covered during their past three games against the Eagles. They beat the Eagles by a combined margin of 45 points in the two games last season. Dallas also has covered in 10 of its past 11 road games.

Yeah Yankees ace Gerrit Cole deserves to be favored in this Game 4 of the AL Division Series - but not nearly by this large of a margin. The value is with Cleveland and that's the way I'm going.

Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Guardians. And he's pitching at home. How important is that? Quantrill is 14-0 with a 2.88 ERA in 44 career games at Progressive Field. This includes 34 starts.

The Yankees are reeling. Aaron Boone could be on his way out and New York's bullpen can't be trusted. The Yankees blew a 5-3 ninth inning lead on Saturday. Aroldis Chapman isn't even on the playoff roster.

The Guardians' bullpen has been superb giving up just one earned run in 21 innings during the postseason.

The Cardinals can't win at home. But they are 10-1 SU and ATS during their last 11 regular season road games.

I see this as a get-right game for Kyler Murray. Seattle is giving up 30.8 points a game. The Seahawks rank in the bottom-three in many key defensive categories, including total defense, scoring defense and run defense. They surrendered 45 points to the Lions and 39 to the Saints this past Sunday despite New Orleans missing its starting QB and three top wide receivers.

Geno Smith is a prime candidate for regression. The Cardinals rank No. 5 in run defense and the Seahawks just lost their top running back, Rashaad Penny, for the season.

Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants.

Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game.

Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games.

Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets.

Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times.

I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week.

This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers.

Each team is 2-3. But the Bengals clearly are the better team. The oddsmaker is telling you that making Cincinnati a road favorite. The Bengals have covered six of their last eight road contests.

The Bengals aren't where they were a year ago when they made the Super Bowl. But they are a level higher than the banged-up Saints. Cincinnati's offensive line is showing improvement. Joe Mixon is off his best game. The Bengals could have a much better record with better luck. All three of their losses have come on a field goal on the final play of the game.    

The Saints are likely to start Andy Dalton again. The Bengals are well familiar with their ex-teammate knowing full well his limitations. Dalton played for the Bengals from 2011-19. Cincinnati shouldn't also be taken by surprise by gadget specialist Taysom Hill after viewing tape of the Saints' wild win against the Seahawks last Sunday.     

New Orleans isn't expected to have at least two of its three best wide receivers with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry injured. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. The Saints have the worst turnover margin in the league at minus eight.
Ja'Marr Chase could be in line for a huge game as Marshon Lattimore, the Saints' top cornerback, isn't expected to play. 

Man a lot can change in a year. Fresno State rolled past San Jose State, 40-9, as a 7-point road favorite last season. Now the Bulldogs find themselves more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Spartans.

That's what a four-game losing streak can do to a team. The Bulldogs lost their outstanding QB Jake Haener in their third game against USC. The following week the Bulldogs had to travel East and were stunned by Connecticut. That was a bad loss.

But Fresno State still has plenty of talent. The Bulldogs should play better here at home. They have been on the road for their last three games.

The season has gone well for 4-1 San Jose State. The Spartans have covered four in a row. That's made the Spartans overpriced here, though, in my view.

Having clinched the top seed in the Western Conference and home field advantage in the playoffs, Winnipeg has nothing to gain in this game. So, not surprisingly, the Blue Bombers will be sitting out numerous starters, including QB Zach Collaros.

BC, however, is battling Calgary for the No. 2 seed in the West and home field advantage in the playoffs. This also is fan appreciation night in British Columbia so the Lions will be far more motivated than the Blue Bombers.

A decent offense and bad defense. That's Rice and its formula for going Over in 14 of its last 17 games, including all five this season.

I see another Over in the Owls' matchup against Florida Atlantic.

Both teams should be fresh with a few tricks up their sleeves having each enjoyed a bye last week. 

Rice gives up 31 points a game. The Owls are averaging 35 points, however, during their last four games. 

Florida Atlantic also averages 31 points per game. Florida Atlantic has surrendered at least 40 points against three of its last four Division I opponents. Florida Atlantic is off a bad 45-28 loss to North Texas State. 

Note this a matinee game with a very early start time. So I'm not envisioning a wide open game.

The Panthers scored three goals in their 3-1 opening game win against the Islanders. One of their goals was an empty-netter. Florida averaged just two goals during its last five preseason games.

The Sabres scored just 11 goals during their last five preseason games. Buffalo held Ottawa to one goal in a 4-1 opening game win.

So I see a 7 total this early in the season between these two teams as being too large.