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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
04-04-21	Braves -115 v. Phillies		1-2	Loss	-115	9 h 4 m	Show
After going against Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Braves step down in pitching class. The Braves draw Zach Eflin as they try to prevent the Phillies from achieving a three-game sweep. Eflin has yet to prove himself special. Braves starter Ian Anderson has. Anderson gave a glimpse into his high ceiling during his rookie season last year going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. The Phillies have never faced him.
04-03-21	Sharks v. Kings -112		3-2	Loss	-112	7 h 38 m	Show
The Sharks are going for their fourth win in a row. They have not won four consecutive games all season and I don't see that changing here. San Jose defeated the Kings, 3-0, on Friday night in a game that was closer than the final score. The Sharks are 1-6 the last seven times when playing on zero rest. Prior to blanking the Kings last night, San Jose was 0-4 in its past four road games. The revenge-minded Kings are likely to break out of their scoring slump with Devan Dubnyk expected to be in net for San Jose. Dubnyk is not in good form allowing 14 goals in his last four starts - all losses - for an 88.2 percent save percentage during this span. On the season, Dubnyk is 3-9-2 with a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage.
04-03-21	Giants -114 v. Mariners		0-4	Loss	-114	13 h 36 m	Show
There wasn't a better pitching during spring training than San Francisco's Logan Webb, who went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in five starts. Webb's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 22-to-2. So I'll take a shot with Webb and the superior team against the lowly Mariners, who will be going with Chris Flexen, who was pitching in South Korea last season. Sure spring training statistics can't be trusted. But still I'd rather go with a hot spring training pitcher than Flexen, who has never proven himself in the majors and has a horrendous bullpen behind him. Already the Mariners' relief staff has given up five runs (four earned) during seven innings.
04-03-21	White Sox -119 v. Angels		3-5	Loss	-119	13 h 33 m	Show
The White Sox are an emerging team with plenty of talent even minus highly-promising Eloy Jimenez. They are going with veteran Lance Lynn on the mound against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been one of the worst starters in the majors during the last three years going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. Those were with Baltimore. The Angels are hoping Cobb can emulate Dylan Bundy's success. Bundy, too, was with the Orioles before coming to the Angels and having much better results. I don't believe that's going to happen. Certainly not against the White Sox where Cobb's lifetime ERA is 13.89 in three starts versus Chicago. Lynn is much the better pitcher and he has a good history against the Angels. Lynn was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season. I much prefer the White Sox's bullpen over the Angels' relievers, too. The Angels received just three innings from Andrew Heaney on Friday so their bullpen already is getting stretched out.
04-03-21	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres		0-7	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
I like the Padres to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West. But there are going to be spots where San Diego is overpriced. This is one of them in a pitching matchup of Caleb Smith versus Joe Musgrove. Smith showed potential with the Marlins and he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them last season. Smith is 2-1 lifetime versus the Padres with a 2.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts. Musgrove went 1-5 in eight starts with the Pirates last season. His lifetime numbers are 29-38 with a 4.33 ERA, which includes 83 starts. He might get more victories pitching for the Padres, but I consider him a lower-end starter, who should not be in this price range. The Diamondbacks have some underrated power. If Ketel Marte returns to form, the Diamondbacks could surprise. Marte is off to a fast start going 6-for-10 with four extra base hits, including two homers.
04-03-21	Cavs +12 v. Heat		101-115	Loss	-109	10 h 59 m	Show
I'm not expecting the Heat to be up for this game, or to produce an "A" type of effort. Why bother, they're playing the Cavaliers. Based on this belief, I'll take Cleveland plus this many points. Miami hosted Cleveland just 2 1/2 weeks ago and won, 113-98. The Cavaliers have lost four in a row. The Heat are on a three-game win streak. This is the Heat's fourth game in six days. Miami is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times as a home favorite. But are there other reasons to get involved with the Cavaliers besides perceived line value and the strong possibility of a Miami letdown? Yes, the Cavaliers have been blown out by the 76ers and Jazz in their last two games. But they have been tougher than you might think. Prior to those two defeats, the Cavaliers were highly competitive in five of their previous seven games - beating the Celtics, Raptors and Bulls while losing by six to the Spurs and by two to the hot Kings. The injury absences of Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. is somewhat off-set by the return of Kevin Love and sparkplug Matthew Dellavedova. Love went 20 minutes against the 76ers. Cleveland only was outscord by two points during Love's time on the court. Love should see more minutes against Miami. Dellavedova made his season debut versus Philly and stabilized Cleveland's second unit. He's a hustling, team-oriented veteran popular with his teammates. Note that Miami has played nine games since defeating the Cavaliers by 15 points. The Heat haven't won by more than 10 points in any of those contests.
04-03-21	Flyers v. Islanders OVER 5.5		2-3	Loss	-118	4 h 42 m	Show
There is only one way to play Flyers totals - and it's not Under that's for sure. Philadelphia has the worst defense in the NHL. The Flyers allowed an average of 4.4 goals during their 17 March games. They have surrendered at least 3 goals in 15 of their last 17 games. The Islanders are coming off an 8-4 victory against the Capitals this past Thursday. New York has scored 3 or more goals in 11 of its last 14 games, while yielding 15 goals in their last four games.
04-03-21	Houston v. Baylor -5	Top	59-78	Win	100	79 h 35 m	Show
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength.
04-03-21	Penguins v. Bruins -113		5-7	Win	100	3 h 44 m	Show
Credit to the Penguins. They are playing very well despite missing two/thirds of their second line and starting goalie Tristan Jarry. But I don't see the Penguins getting a road sweep of the Bruins after beating Boston, 4-1, this past Thursday. Pittsburgh was 0-8-2 in its previous 10 visits to Boston before that Thursday victory. Boston coach Bruce Cassidy ripped his team after that loss. So I'm expecting a strong revenge effort from the home Bruins.
04-02-21	Giants +116 v. Mariners	Top	6-3	Win	116	14 h 40 m	Show
No way am I buying Yusei Kikuchi as a favorite. The left-handed Kikuchi has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors during his two-year stint compiling a 5.46 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 2019 and a 5.17 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP last season. San Francisco just faced a lefty starter on Thursday and scored five earned runs in six innings off Marco Gonzales, a much better pitcher than Kikuchi. Seattle has one of the worst bullpens in the majors, too. Giants starter Johnny Cueto isn't the star he was with the Reds, but he's still solid. I consider him the Giants' best starter. Cueto has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against Seattle in three starts. San Francisco's bullpen is better than it showed in its 8-7 extra inning loss to the Mariners on Thursday. The Mariners remain without perhaps their most talented player as outfielder Kyle Lewis has a knee injury.
04-02-21	Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224		126-103	Loss	-110	12 h 11 m	Show
I'm not expecting the Hawks and Pelicans to play with a lot of energy in this one. The visiting Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They are off a two overtime road win against the Spurs from Thursday. The Pelicans also played last night and had to go overtime, losing, 115-110, to the Magic at home. Not only are the Pelicans playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. Neither team is likely to be at full strength either. The Hawks don't expect to have their second and third-leading scorers with John Collins sidelined with an ankle injury and De'Andre Hunter dealing with a sore knee that has kept him out of the past four games. Cam Reddish isn't back yet and Kevin Huerter has gone in the tank. There's also the possibility Trae Young sits because of a sore knee. That would be a huge bonus for the Under. The Pelicans fell to the Magic minus their three best offensive players - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. New Orleans committed 24 turnovers minus Ball, its point guard. The Pelicans managed only 101 points in regulation against Orlando last night. I would be surprised if all three of these stars sat out again, but I do expect one or two of them to miss this game. The Hawks have been much improved defensively under the coaching of veteran Nate McMillan, who took over from the fired Lloyd Pierce.
04-02-21	Blues v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		2-3	Loss	-115	10 h 12 m	Show
No matter who the opposition is, the oddsmaker should be almost automatically setting at least a 6 total on Colorado games. The Avalanche have been the hottest scoring team in the NHL producing 53 goals in their last 10 games for an average of 5.3 goals a game. The Blues just gave up a combined seven goals to the low-scoring Ducks during their last two games, both home losses. Colorado is the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. The Over has cashed in eight of Colorado's last nine games. The Blues rank a disappointing 17th in scoring. But they have a number of good scorers who are overdue to break loose. St. Louis has been underachieving.
04-01-21	Penguins v. Bruins -129		4-1	Loss	-129	14 h 0 m	Show
Pittsburgh enters this matchup fat and happy having won four in a row - all at home. Now, though, the Penguins take to the road where they have lost six of the last seven times as an underdog. Oh, yes, Pittsburgh is playing in Boston. The Penguins are 2-14 (12 percent) during their last 16 visits to Boston. The Bruins have the firepower and defense to take advantage of the Penguins' many injuries. Out for Pittsburgh is second-line center Evgeni Malkin, second-line left winger Kasperi Kapanen and starting goalie Tristian Jarry, who isn't likely to play after missing Wednesday's practice after suffering an injury in Pittsburgh's Monday 2-1 victory against the Islanders.
04-01-21	Rangers -1.5 v. Sabres		3-2	Loss	-100	11 h 53 m	Show
There must have been plenty of Labatt Blue consumed in Buffalo last night after the Sabres ended their 18-game winless streak by crushing the Flyers, 6-1, at home. The Sabres still could be celebrating by the time this game starts. It's unfortunate for the Sabres they have to play right away following that long-awaited victory. It's also their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days. Buffalo is 3-14 in its last 17 home contests. The Rangers don't mind being party poopers. They can't afford a slip-up here. New York is 6-4 in its last 10 games with all of its victories during this span occurring by at least two goals. The Rangers have proven trustworthy lately in this role winning six of the last seven times as chalk. Probable Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is 2-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .918 save percentage in two games against Buffalo this season. Sabres expected goalie Dustin Tokarski, on the other hand, has a 5.12 GAA and .854 save percentage in three career games versus the Rangers.
04-01-21	Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5		7-8	Loss	-110	12 h 35 m	Show
Far superior team. Far superior starting pitcher and a stronger bullpen.The Padres check the boxes here. That's why they are such a strong favorite. I have to believe they are going to win this game by at least two runs so I'm going to lay them on the run line to avoid the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks appear to have made a foolish investment in Madison Bumgarner signing him to a five-year, $85 million contract. Bumgarner still is just 31, but he has a lot of wear-and-tear that showed itself last season when he went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. Bumgarner doesn't have a good history at Petco Park either with a 5-9 career record and 4.38 ERA. How bad is Arizona's bullpen? Joakim Soria is the closer. So Bumgarner isn't going to get any relief help. The Padres posted their highest winning percentage last season going 37-23. They look even better this season. Yu Darvish is one reason for this. He finished No. 2 in the Cy Young Award balloting with an 8-3 record and 2.01 ERA in 12 starts in 2020. He has a 2.93 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in five starts with 53 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings.
03-31-21	Bucks -8 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	21 h 50 m	Show
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty.
03-31-21	Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves		101-102	Loss	-109	19 h 49 m	Show
Most teams find it difficult to get up for the Timberwolves. Can you blame them? Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 11-36. The Timberwolves have failed to cover 12 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog, too. The Knicks are the exception. They will be up for this matchup - and it's because of Tom Thibodeau. The defensive guru has the Knicks ranking No. 1 defensively giving up 104.6 points a game. The Timberwolves fired Thibodeau as their coach and president in early January of 2019. The season before Thibodeau had led Minnesota to its first playoff berth in 17 years. New York is coming off a bad 98-88 loss to the Heat this past Tuesday. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times following a loss. They also have shown the ability to take care of business against bad teams going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times versus a sub .500 opponent. The Timberwolves rarely can be counted on to play two strong games in a row. Minnesota nearly upset the hot Nets two days ago, losing 112-107.
03-31-21	Flyers v. Sabres +1.5	Top	1-6	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
The Sabres won't have a better chance of ending their hideous 18-game losing streak than right here. But can they be trusted? Heck no. That's why I'm backing them on the puck line taking 1 1/2 goals and laying juice believing this is going to be an extremely close game between two teams who are playing terribly. It sure went that way this past Monday night. Buffalo jumped to a 3-0 lead before proceeding to lose, 4-3 in overtime. It may have been the Sabres' most frustrating loss of the season, which is saying a lot since you need a calculator to add up all of their defeats. Now the Sabres get their revenge opportunity. Motivation can mean everything, but it won't work if the talent level isn't there. Fortunately for the Sabres, the Flyers are extremely mediocre with the worst defense and penalty kill in the league. Philadelphia is 5-9 in its last 14 games. If laying 1 1/2 goals, the Flyers would be riding a 16-game losing streak themselves. They haven't won a game by more than one goal this entire month.
03-30-21	Magic +11.5 v. Clippers		103-96	Win	100	12 h 12 m	Show
If the Clippers cared about this opponent they would crush them. But they don't. Would you? Orlando could field the least respectable lineup in the NBA following the trade deadline where they dealt its three best players to play for the future. LA is extremely fat and happy, winners and covers of six in a row, including a highly-satisfying 129-105 destruction of the Bucks Monday night. Maybe Kawhi Leonard sits out this one since he played yesterday. Orlando has a lineup you don't want to know, but the Magic have been competitive covering their last three games: Beating the Suns straight-up, losing by seven points to the Trail Blazers and falling to the Lakers by three points. Those point spread covers all came at home. Now the Magic are on the road. Point, though, is the Magic's youngsters should continue to play hard now that they have an opportunity while the Clippers are in a monster letdown spot. Even if the Clippers build up a big lead, the backdoor should swing open with LA hosting the Nuggets on Thursday in a much bigger game.
03-30-21	UCLA v. Michigan OVER 135	Top	51-49	Loss	-108	20 h 55 m	Show
There's enough value for me now to take the Over. I understand Michigan is a strong defensive team and UCLA has stepped up defensively. But in analyzing this matchup there are certain elements that lead me to getting involved with the high side. UCLA is averaging 78.5 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are getting tremendous backcourt play from Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., who are averaging a combined 36.8 points per game. The Bruins' field goal and 3-point shooting is slightly down from their regular season numbers. So their point production is impressive even though the scoring numbers were boosted by a pair of overtime games. So is the Bruins' 3-point consistency. They have made 34 3-pointers during their four tournament victories. The Bruins have hit at least 35 percent of their 3-pointers in eight of the past 10 games. The last time UCLA had a below 40 percent shooting game from the floor was early February. So I trust the Bruins to contribute their share of points. Michigan's offense really impressed me in scoring 76 points against Florida State. The Wolverines are moving the ball well - 60 assists on 83 made field goals in their three tournament games - and their execution has been superb. UCLA doesn't force many turnovers and ranks 261st in 3-point defense. Those are red flags. Michigan also makes it free throws being one of the top free throw shooting teams in the nation making 78 percent.
03-29-21	Arkansas +8 v. Baylor	Top	72-81	Loss	-106	19 h 28 m	Show
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game.
03-29-21	Raptors -3 v. Pistons		104-118	Loss	-110	10 h 1 m	Show
OK, Toronto it's time. The Raptors are four games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can not afford another loss this month to Detroit. Yes, the Pistons are 2-0 versus Toronto in March beating them 116-112 at home and 129-105 on the road March 3. Detroit, though, is in full rebuild. The Pistons are 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 0-4 during their past four games. The Raptors like to bomb from 3-point range. They rank ninth in 3-point accuracy. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point defense.
03-29-21	Islanders -105 v. Penguins		1-2	Loss	-105	8 h 6 m	Show
Kudos to the short-handed Penguins who rolled to an easy 6-3 victory at home against New York this past Saturday. The Islanders haven't had a game that bad since late January. I'm expecting a strong effort in short revenge from the Islanders, who draw the Penguins minus a number of forwards and centers. The Penguins' long injury list, includes Evgeni Malkin and Brandon Tanev. Basically the Penguins are missing their No. 2 line. The Islanders were riding a three-game winning streak while going 14-2-1 in their last 17 games prior to Saturday's loss.
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-28-21	Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 227		102-126	Loss	-109	15 h 26 m	Show
Below the radar screen, the Hawks have been playing very good defense since Nate McMillan took over as coach. Atlanta has held its last eight opponents to an average of 102.3 points per game. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.7 points. Denver has an above average defense. The Nuggets have held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 109 points. Both teams were active at the trade so there are rotation adjustments. The Nuggets got bigger with their recent acquisitions so they might have gotten slower.
03-28-21	Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158		65-83	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret how Gonzaga is going to play. The Bulldogs are going to push pace - they have the second-shortest average length time of possession - and attack from everywhere on the court. They can do this with such awesome talent in Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi and Jalen Suggs. This is why Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 92.9 points a game. The Bulldogs also are No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage at 55.3 percent. No matter how high the oddsmaker sets the total, Gonzaga seems to go above it. The Over has cashed an amazing 71 percent of the time in Gonzaga's last 55 games. I envision another Over the total in this matchup. Creighton averages 78.4 points a game, which ranks 42nd in the nation. The Bluejays are 29th in field goal percentage and 52nd in 3-point accuracy. Going by KenPom.com's advanced metrics, Creighton ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. So it's obvious the Bluejays can hold up their scoring end. The key question is what kind of pace will the Bluejays employ? Opponents, of course, have tried to slow down tempo against Gonzaga. That doesn't work. You have to go back to Dec. 2 to find the last time Gonzaga didn't win by double-digits and that was against West Virginia. It's the only instance of the unbeaten Bulldogs not winning by at least 10 points all season. The Bluejays play their best when they push tempo. Creighton ranks 23rd in the adjusted KenPom.com offensive efficiency ratings. My conclusion then is the oddsmaker has set this total too low.
03-27-21	Syracuse v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	46-62	Win	100	39 h 1 m	Show
Slow tempo. Great defense. High total. These three key ingredients all are here pointing to Under the total. Houston is an extremely slow-paced, methodical team ranking among the bottom-25 in tempo. Syracuse has slowed down its tempo during the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The Orange's fabled 2-3 zone is going to cause shooting problems for Houston. The Cougars are not familiar with this defensive style. They are a below average shooting team ranking 194th in field goal percentage. Guard DeJon Jarreau is dealing with a hip pointer. He's Houston's assist leader and No. 3 scorer. The Cougars rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. They also are No. 2 in scoring defense giving up just 57.6 points and rank fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Sparked by Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse has made 50 percent of its 3-point shots in the NCAA Tournament going 29-for-58. That's unsustainable especially against Houston's elite defense. During the regular season, Syracuse made just 33 percent of its 3-point shots, ranking 213th.
03-27-21	Celtics v. Thunder +9.5		111-94	Loss	-110	12 h 56 m	Show
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics.
03-27-21	Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas		70-72	Win	100	37 h 60 m	Show
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now.
03-27-21	Lightning -117 v. Hurricanes		3-4	Loss	-117	15 h 47 m	Show
I want the Lightning going for me at this price coming off a 4-3 loss to the Stars two days ago where Tampa Bay blew a two-goal lead. That snapped goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy's 12-game win streak. Carolina is off a 4-3 overtime victory against Columbus this past Thursday. The Hurricanes rank eighth in goals scored and goals allowed. Impressive, but trumped by the Lightning ranking No. 1 in goals scored while giving up the fifth-fewest goals per game. Carolina hasn't scored more than 3 goals in regulation during its last six games. The Hurricanes scored fewer than 3 goals in four of those contests. The teams last met for three games from Feb. 22-25. The Lightning held the Hurricanes to three goals in those three games winning all three by multiple goals.
03-27-21	Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5		3-4	Loss	-105	15 h 40 m	Show
Edmonton has been playing some underrated defense allowing an average of 2.1 goals per game in its last nine games. The Maple Leafs haven't broken the 3-goal barrier during regulation in their last nine games. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are in scoring slumps. Toronto is 0-for-15 in its last 15 power play attempts. The Oilers should have plenty of energy having last played a week ago because of COVID-19 protocols. The Maple Leafs have been a defensive nightmare for the Oilers. Edmonton could manage just one goal versus Toronto in three games when the teams last met from Feb. 27-March 3.
03-27-21	Rangers v. Flyers OVER 6		1-2	Loss	-110	9 h 59 m	Show
I'm surprised this one opened 6 and not 6 1/2 given past circumstances. Those past circumstances are the Rangers burying the Flyers, 9-0 and 8-3, during the last 10 days. The Flyers should get up for this one no doubt, but their defense certainly can't be trusted. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 4.6 goals in 14 games this month. If there's a worse goalie tandem in the NHL than Carter Hart and Brian Elliott, I haven't seen it. I feel sorry for Shayne Gostisbehere. It's no surprise the Over has won 72 percent of the time during the Flyers' last 32 games. The Rangers have picked up their scoring averaging 4.8 goals during their last seven games. New York has surrendered at least 3 goals in seven of its past 11 games.
03-26-21	Cavs v. Lakers -3.5		86-100	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton.
03-26-21	Sharks v. Coyotes -120	Top	2-5	Win	100	20 h 34 m	Show
The Coyotes are coming off perhaps their biggest win of the season, 5-4 in a shootout, at home against Colorado. I don't see a letdown. Instead I see the Coyotes building off their win knowing they are in the playoff hunt and can't afford a home loss here. A loss to San Jose would nullify the victory over Colorado, which occurred this past Tuesday. Arizona is 11-4 the last 15 times when playing on two days rest. San Jose enters this matchup fat and happy having swept two close games at home against the Kings. The Sharks are 3-10 the past 13 times following a win. The Sharks' defense has shown improvement. San Jose, though, still is among the bottom-three in goals allowed and shots on goal. The Coyotes are riding with third-string goalie Adin Hill. I'm fine with that after how well Hill looked against the high-powered Avalanche. No team fires more shots on goal than Colorado. Hill made 35 saves, including seven in overtime several of which were huge. San Jose is averaging just 2.2 goals in its last four games. The Coyotes have picked up their scoring producing 11 goals in their last three games.
03-26-21	Nuggets -125 v. Pelicans		113-108	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
New Orleans is much better at home. Denver, however, has one of the top road marks in the NBA at 14-9. The Nuggets certainly aren't going to lack motivation and focus either for this matchup. The Pelicans upset the Nuggets, 113-108, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Sunday. Denver rebounded from that disappointment to knock off the Magic, 110-99, in Orlando three days ago, but then were buried on the road by the Raptors, 135-111, this past Wednesday. This is what Denver coach Michael Malone said about that defeat to the Raptors: "The most frustrating aspect for me was the complete lack of effort, all around from top to bottom; that was an embarrassing performance." Almost always a team comes out hard after getting ripped by their coach for lack of trying. Denver also has rapid revenge motivation losing to the Pelicans at home five days ago. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games and rate at least one level higher than the Pelicans.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-25-21	Panthers -113 v. Blackhawks		0-3	Loss	-113	11 h 5 m	Show
Florida hasn't lost three in a row all season. But the Panthers could have that happen if they lose this game having lost 5-3 to the Lightning this past Sunday and to the Blackhawks, 3-2, two days ago in an upset. The Panthers fell behind Chicago, 3-0, before rallying to get within one goal before falling. Prior to that game, Florida had won all four meetings against Chicago this season, outscoring the Blackhawks by a combined nine goals in those four games. Florida is the superior team and I see the Panthers getting their quick revenge. It would be an added plus if team captain and team points leader Aleksander Barkov played for Florida. Barkov was scratched during warmups on Tuesday due to a lower-body injury. It was just his fourth missed game during the past two seasons.
03-25-21	Panthers v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5		0-3	Loss	-100	11 h 4 m	Show
The teams just met on Tuesday in Chicago and the Blackhawks hung on for a 3-2 victory. There were 67 shots on goal in that game. The Blackhawks had yielded an average of 4.5 goals during their past seven games previous to Tuesday. The Panthers are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game. They have scored 3 or more goals in six of their last eight road contests. The Blackhawks have scored 3 or more goals in 10 of their past 11 home games.
03-25-21	Rangers v. Flyers +107		8-3	Loss	-100	10 h 44 m	Show
It's a score that will live in infamy with the Flyers. Rangers 9, Flyers 0. That happened eight days ago at Madison Square Garden. It was the Flyers' worst road shutout loss in franchise history. Philadelphia hasn't been playing much better since. The Flyers are 2-6 in their last eight games. But I can't pass up this all-time revenge spot. So I'll back Philadelphia. Note, Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is the probable starter for the Rangers. He's been out with a groin injury the last three weeks so he could be rusty making his first start since then.
03-25-21	Islanders +107 v. Bruins		4-3	Win	107	10 h 43 m	Show
Boston hasn't played in a week due to COVID-19 protocols. The Bruins still may be minus starting goalie Tukka Rask, who has been out since March 7. I'm factoring that the Bruins are going to have some rust. That won't be the case with the Islanders. This is New York's fourth game in six days. The Islanders happen to be 7-0 the past seven times when playing a 4-in-6 situation. The Islanders have been one of the hotter teams in the NHL winning 10 of their last 12. They have the No. 2 defense in the league. They also have defeated the Bruins in each of the last four meetings.
03-25-21	Devils +170 v. Capitals		3-4	Loss	-100	10 h 40 m	Show
New Jersey is 4-1 in its last five games. That's the Devils' best stretch of the season. Washington also is in good form. However, the Capitals haven't played in five days. That's too much time in between games. Washington also might be missing its top goal scorer, Alex Ovechkin. He's questionable with a lower-body injury. The Devils haven't given up more than 3 goals in each of their last seven games. I see the Devils hanging in and at this price worth taking a shot on.
03-24-21	Jets v. Canucks UNDER 6		5-1	Push	0	14 h 33 m	Show
This has been an Under series with the low side cashing seven of the last nine times, including this past Monday with the Jets winning, 4-0. That was a 1-0 game going into the third period. Vancouver is determined to end a seven-game home losing streak to Winnipeg. If the Canucks are to succeed they likely will have to do it with a stellar defensive effort. That's because the Canucks are dealing with a cluster injury problem at center with Elias Pettersson and Jay Beagle out and Bo Horvat unlikely to play due to an ankle injury suffered in Monday's loss. Vancouver also is down three forwards because of injuries. That's a lot of missing firepower. Fortunately for Vancouver, goalie Thatcher Demko has come up big this season. The Canucks are in good defensive form holding opponents to an average of 2.5 goals in their last 10 games. The Jets aren't going to get wild here knowing they have a good situational spot because of Vancouver's injuries. Horvat's expected loss is huge. Horvat ranks with Demko, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller as one of the four most important players on the team. Winnipeg can win this game by picking its spots and not doing anything foolish. So I'm expecting a conservative, smart approach from the Jets just like they did on Monday.
03-24-21	Hornets v. Rockets +3.5	Top	122-97	Loss	-105	15 h 18 m	Show
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite.
03-24-21	Mavs v. Wolves +8.5		128-108	Loss	-115	8 h 55 m	Show
The Mavericks are talented. They also are young and could be facing an unexpected tough battler here. Riding high after a 40-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Sunday, the Mavericks have had three days to enjoy themselves. Their past five games have been against the Nuggets, two versus the Clippers and two against the Trail Blazers. Now they get to step way down in class drawing the hapless Timberwolves. Dallas does not have a good track record in these instances going 5-16 ATS (24 percent) the past 21 times facing below .500 opponents. Minnesota has covered four of its last seven games. Anthony Edwards now becomes the top rookie of the year candidate with LeMelo Ball likely out for the year. Edwards is playing well. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man on the floor. This is the second meeting between the two teams. Dallas defeated Minnesota, 127-122, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites on Feb. 8. The Timberwolves lost that one by five points despite not having Towns, while the Mavericks had their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
03-23-21	Nets v. Blazers -121		116-112	Loss	-121	17 h 55 m	Show
The Nets may be the Eastern power oddsmakers envision when James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are all in the lineup together and in sync. Right now, though, the Nets just have Harden. Brooklyn is thin in the backcourt with Irving out for this game. Portland's strength is its backcourt of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and swingman Gary Trent. Brooklyn could be in serious trouble for this matchup if Harden can't go. He was dealing with neck soreness following Brooklyn's last game, a 113-106 home win against the Wizards from two days ago. The Nets lost, 121-113, to the hapless Magic in their previous game played five days ago in Orlando. Portland had turned around its season winning seven of nine games before getting embarrassed at home by the Mavericks, 132-92, this past Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' worst loss of the season. I see Portland bouncing back at home against a Nets squad that is far from full strength.
03-23-21	Suns v. Heat UNDER 215.5		110-100	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
This spot is fraught with danger for Phoenix. The Suns open a four-game road swing after a highly-satisfying burial of the Lakers two days ago, drawing a semi-desperate Heat squad looking to halt a three-game losing skid. But rather than get involved picking a side, I'm opting to go with the total in this matchup because I believe Under is the best way to go. Miami is a defensive-minded team built to win in that fashion, not by shootouts. Only three teams in the NBA allow fewer points per game than the Heat. Only one has a better defensive field goal percentage. The Heat have held eight of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 100 points during regulation. The Heat have two added veteran ace defenders back in their rotation: recently acquiredTrevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala back from a hip injury. Jimmy Butler is healthy, too. Butler is noted for his offense, but he's also a strong defender. It's a plus for the Under if offensive-minded Goran Dragic remains sidelined. The Suns rank in the top three both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held three of their past four opponents to fewer than 102 points. Miami is 27th in scoring and 28th in 3-point shooting. I see this as a playoff-type game with a lot of defensive intensity and slow tempo.
03-23-21	Panthers v. Blackhawks OVER 6		2-3	Loss	-119	16 h 26 m	Show
Florida and Chicago have met four times this season: The Panthers are 4-0. The scores of those games were 4-2, 6-3, 5-2 and 5-4. That's an average combined total of 7.7 goals per game. I'm certainly not expecting fewer goals to be scored in this meeting. After some initial promise sparked by rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen, the Blackhawks' defense has regressed to where it was perceived before the season - being awful. Chicago is surrendering an average of 4.5 goals during its last seven games. That, of course, would rank last if computed out for the entire season. Chicago does allow the most shots on goal. Florida is the third-highest scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals a game. The Panthers also take the second-most shots on goal. Florida has scored at least 3 goals in six of its past seven road games. The Blackhawks should be primed for a strong performance. This is their first game since Saturday and first home contest since March 7. The Blackhawks average 2.9 goals a game. Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat make Chicago respectable on offense. The Blackhawks have scored 3 or more goals in nine of their last 10 home games.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-22-21	Kings v. Sharks -115		1-2	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
I think I'd almost rather be in the water with a real shark than back the Sharks as a favorite. But this spot sets up for San Jose. The Kings are off an exhausting 3-1 upset home win against the powerful Golden Knights. Calvin Petersen made 41 saves for the Kings, including 24 during the final period when LA was outshot, 24-7. The Kings managed to hold off the Golden Knights, though. I doubt the Kings have much left for this quick turnaround road game. LA has lost the past four times following a victory. The Kings also are a bad road team having won just 31 percent of their last 65 away contests. San Jose has lost four in a row. The Sharks, though, haven't been playing bad. Those defeats are misleading. Two of them occurred to the Golden Knights by one goal each. Both of them were in Las Vegas. The Sharks then hosted the Blues and fell, 2-1 in a shootout, and 5-2 in a game that was far closer than the final score indicates. The Sharks were hurt and lost momentum in that loss because of a controversial faceoff violation that resulted in two late St. Louis goals that broke the game open.
03-22-21	Pacers v. Bucks -9.5		113-140	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat.
03-22-21	Maryland v. Alabama OVER 138		77-96	Win	100	17 h 8 m	Show
It's human nature to remember and be influenced from what you last saw. It's the same with the oddsmaker, who also must factor in public perception. When it comes to Maryland and Alabama this is what we last witnessed: Maryland beating Connecticut, 63-54, holding the Huskies to a season-low in points and Alabama defeating Iona, 68-55. Those games flew Under the total by a combined 37 points. Judging by where this totals stands now, it's my opinion the oddsmaker and marketplace overreacted because I find this Over/Under too low. Alabama is far from a great defensive team. Maryland's defensive weakness is 3-point defense where it ranks 188th. Alabama may have experienced tournament jitters in its opener against Iona. I'm expecting the Crimson Tide to shoot and play better. Alabama led the nation in 3-pointers taken - and made. The Crimson Tide have seven players capable of hitting long-range shots headed by Jahvon Quinerly, who has the seventh-highest 3-point shooting percentage in the nation. These are not tall teams. Both like to play small ball. Alabama is one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. Maryland won't mind that style having dealt with many physical, half-court, inside-oriented Big Ten teams.
03-22-21	Colorado v. Florida State -110		53-71	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
A highly unusual college basketball season has gotten even stranger during this NCAA Tournament. One reason for this is the presence of five teams from the Pac-12 still being alive. Except for Gonzaga, I don't hold a high opinion of West Coast basketball this season. I'm expecting a correction to occur especially in this matchup of Pac-12 versus ACC. Florida State has the length, size, athleticism and defensive interior to make this a rough matchup for Colorado. The Buffaloes need to hit their perimeter shots because they are going to have problems inside. I'm not convinced they can do that. The Seminoles average six more points per game than Colorado and have a higher 3-point shooting percentage than the Buffaloes. Colorado has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog.
03-22-21	Ducks v. Wild -1.5		1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 40 m	Show
The Wild return to Minnesota in embarrassing fashion having lost two straight games to the Avalanche. There's no shame in losing to the Avs in Denver, but there is when you're outscored, 11-1, like Minnesota was. Luckily for the Wild, they have a patsy awaiting them - the rebuilding Ducks, losers of 14 of their last 17 games. Minnesota hasn't lost three in a row all season. I certainly don't believe that streak will be broken here. I'm so sure that I'm willing to take plus price juice by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line since I'm not in the habit of laying such a hefty money line price. Minnesota is on an eight-game home win streak with five of the last seven victories during that streak coming by multiple goals. Anaheim's last five losses have been by a combined 20 goals, an average loss of four goals per game. The Ducks average a puny 2.2 goals per game, which ranks 29th. The Wild are the seventh-best defensive team in the NHL. The key will be if Minnesota can score enough to cover the puck line. The Wild have been way underwhelming on the power play. However, Anaheim has serious goalie problems. Starting goalie John Gibson is out with injury. This leaves 40-year-old Ryan Miller and third-stringer Anthony Stolarz for the Ducks' netminder choices. Miller is well past his prime. The Ducks gave Stolarz his first start of the season this past Saturday. It didn't go well. He was pulled after allowing two goals on 14 shots in a 5-1 loss to Arizona. The offensively-starved Coyotes had entered that matchup having scored only four goals in their last five games.
03-22-21	Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton		58-72	Loss	-105	14 h 16 m	Show
One of these teams is being disrespected with this betting line - and it's not Creighton. I understand Ohio University isn't held in high regard being from the Mid-American Conference. But all the Bobcats do is cover spreads. They have covered 76 percent of their past 29 games, including going 5-0 ATS the past five times as an underdog. Ohio deserves respect for not only beating Toledo and Buffalo in the MAC Tournament, but taking out Virginia, 62-58, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, the Bobcats rank 30th. They have a balanced scoring attack and showed their defensive abilities holding high-scoring Buffalo 13 points below its season average. Jacob Preston gives Ohio one of the best all-around players in the country. Creighton has endured a difficult season. The Bluejays shouldn't be trusted in this point spread range. They were extremely fortunate to get past lightly regarded Santa Barbara, 63-62, in the first round. I also don't trust Creighton's current form. The Bluejays are averaging a puny 56.6 points per game during their last three games.
03-21-21	Lakers +10 v. Suns	Top	94-111	Loss	-108	11 h 34 m	Show
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
03-21-21	76ers v. Knicks UNDER 215.5		101-100	Win	100	12 h 47 m	Show
The 76ers hosted the Knicks five days ago minus Joel Embiid and his third-ranked 29.9 point scoring average. The 76ers managed to come away with a 99-96 victory for a total of 195 points. Seth Curry and Ben Simmons did play in that game. Curry scored 20 points while Simmons produced 16 points and seven assists. Together they combined to shoot 15-of-29 from the floor. Embiid remains out, but now Curry and Simmons are questionable with injuries. Yet the oddsmaker still has set what I regard as too high of a total. Perhaps he was influenced by the 76ers burying the Kings, 129-105, at home on Saturday despite Philadelphia missing Curry and Simmons. The Kings are ranked 29th defensively giving up 119.6 points. They are coached by Luke Walton. The Knicks are ranked No. 1 in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are coached by Tom Thibodeau, a defensive genius, Before they produced 129 points versus the Kings, the 76ers had been held to 93 points in regulation by the Bucks and 99 by the Knicks in their previous two games. The Knicks are a bottom-three scoring team. They have a cluster injury problem at point guard. Frank Ntilikina, an Under bettor's dream, has been drawing time. The 76ers are well above average defensively ranking seventh in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
03-21-21	Texas Tech v. Arkansas +2		66-68	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
There's no grey area with this matchup. Either you believe in Arkansas' fast and flashy way, or Texas Tech's old-school, defensive approach. I'm going the Arkansas way. I like the current form the Razorbacks are in. They have three big scorers and rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game. Arkansas has covered nine of its last 11 games and is 18-9-1 (67 percent) ATS on the season. Texas Tech has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times it has met opponents with a winning record.
03-21-21	Syracuse v. West Virginia UNDER 147.5		75-72	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
I don't believe the oddsmaker has paid enough respect to these two team's defensive abilities with this high of a total. Syracuse has its famed 2-3 zone, while West Virginia has its deadly press. Derek Culver may be a load inside, but I'm not sold on West Virginia's outside shooting, nor Syracuse handling the Mountaineers' constant pressure and maniac intensity. West Virginia certainly is not going to ignore sizzling Buddy Boeheim. The better the competition, the more these defenses seem to step up. The Under is 7-1 the past eight times Syracuse has met an above .500 opponent. That's West Virginia's Under mark, too, the past eight times it has faced a winning opponent.
03-21-21	Magic +8.5 v. Celtics		96-112	Loss	-105	7 h 25 m	Show
Aaron Gordon is one of those underrated players who isn't worth anything on the betting line. Maybe he should be. Orlando is 4-1 ATS since Gordon returned from injury. Gordon scored 38 points in helping lead the Magic to a 121-113 win against the Nets this past Friday at home halting Brooklyn's six-game win streak and ending the Magic's nine-game losing streak. So the Magic should enter this matchup with boosted confidence not to mention strong revenge motivation for a 124-97 mid-January road loss to the Celtics during their previous get together. The other part of this handicap is fading Boston. The Celtics are not a team to be backing right now losers of four of their past five, including their last three. Discount a 134-107 win against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Celtics are averaging 106 points during their last four games. Both Orlando and Boston give up an average of 111 points. Orlando would be 6-1 in its last seven games if given more than eight points. So, I ask who are the Celtics to be laying this many points?
03-21-21	Devils +1.5 v. Penguins		2-1	Win	100	8 h 21 m	Show
These teams are well acquainted with each other having played twice during the past three days. New Jersey won, 3-2, this past Thursday and Pittsburgh prevailed, 3-1, on Saturday. I'm expecting another close game. The Devils would be 6-2 in their last eight games if given 1 1/2 goals. They haven't lost by more than two goals in any of their past eight games. The scene shifts to Pittsburgh after Thursday and Saturday's games were played in New Jersey. The Devils have won four of the past five times in Pittsburgh. The Penguins also are 1-5 the last six times when playing without rest. This has been a tight series the past three days. The Devils beat the Penguins Thursday and played them even during 5-on-5 action Saturday, but lost because of special teams. New Jersey went 0-for-4 on its power play chances, while the Penguins scored on one of their two power play opportunities. Multiple injuries to the Penguins have helped make this such a close series. The Penguins are down their No. 2 and No. 3 centers with Evgeni Malkin and Teddy Blueger out. Forward Brandon Tanev is questionable. Tanev has the second-highest plus mark on the Penguins.
03-21-21	Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7		71-58	Loss	-110	10 h 52 m	Show
Loyola's always a nice NCAA Tourney story. But the Ramblers aren't nearly in Illinois' class. Yes the point spread reflects that, but not to the full degree. Just how good is Illinois? The Illini very well could be the second-best team in the nation next to Gonzaga. The Illini are playing at this high level going 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The combination of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are too much for Loyola to keep this within single digits. Illinois has done this against major competition, too. The Illini are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus above .500 foes. Loyola hasn't been good when getting points failing to cover eight of the last 11 times in that role.
03-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Texas UNDER 140	Top	53-52	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have put too much stock in Texas' 91-86 victory against Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament because this total is too high. Prior to that game, the Longhorns hadn't surrendered more than 68 points in any of their past five games. Texas gives up 68.2 points on the season and ranks in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points per game than Abilene Christian, which permitted only 60.7 while ranking 24th in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian is in strong defensive form, too, giving up only 59.2 points per game during its last four matchups.
03-20-21	Jets +119 v. Oilers		2-4	Loss	-100	12 h 11 m	Show
Edmonton was sharp in beating Winnipeg, 2-1, two days ago. Yet the Jets still almost forced overtime despite how well the Oilers played. Here's a stat I really like about the Jets and this revenge situation: Winnipeg is 8-1 in regular season games following a loss with the lone defeat being a 4-3 shootout loss to the Flames. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl draw all the publicity. They deserve it being superstars. However, the Jets have some excellent offensive performers, too. Edmonton averages 3.4 goals a game. Winnipeg averages 3.3 goals per game.
03-20-21	Coyotes -122 v. Ducks		5-1	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Arizona has lost five in a row scoring a meager four goals during its losing streak. Yet the Coyotes are road chalk against Anaheim. What does that say? It says the Ducks are dreadful, which they are and they know it. The Ducks already have gone to rebuild mode this season. They did manage to get past the Coyotes, 3-2 in overtime, this past Thursday. It was just Anaheim's third victory in its last 16 games. The Ducks are 2-8 in their past 10 home games. The Coyotes blew a 2-0 lead. Don't look for the Coyotes to let up in this rapid revenge spot. They are the better team here and overdue to prove it.
03-20-21	Flyers v. Islanders -129		1-6	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
After the Flyers were thoroughly humiliated by the Rangers, 9-0, this past Wednesday they came back to beat the Islanders, 4-3, on Thursday. Previous to beating upsetting the Islanders, the Flyers had lost the past seven times they were underdogs. That Philadelphia victory also snapped a six-game Islanders home win streak. Islanders coach Barry Trotz was not happy with that loss, New York's second in a row following a nine-game win streak. Trotz, one of the top coaches in the league, publicly expressed his disappointment and displeasure with his team. Now it's the Islanders' turn to respond. They are home and superior to the Flyers. So I believe they will respond.
03-20-21	Grand Canyon +14.5 v. Iowa		74-86	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Grand Canyon has been an underdog five times this season. The Antelopes covered every one of those games. Iowa is a great team, but Grand Canyon matches up well to the Hawkeyes and should go 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are led by star senior center Luka Garza. Grand Canyon has a pair of big men - 7-footer Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6-10 Alessandro Lever - that can bother Garza on both sides of the floor. The Antelopes ranked 16th in the nation in 2-point shooting at 55.4 percent because of their inside scoring. They also were 35th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Iowa doesn't have the guard play to force many turnovers, which is where Grand Canyon has some vulnerabilities. Making the NCAA Tournament is a huge deal for the Antelopes because they never made it before having just started playing Division I basketball eight years ago. Grand Canyon will be pumped up while all the pressure will be on Iowa. You have to wonder, too, if the Big Ten could be overrated following Ohio State and Purdue losing as big favorites during Friday's first-round tournament action.
03-20-21	Hawks v. Lakers UNDER 223.5		99-94	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
We'll find out just how good the Hawks are with this matinee matchup. Atlanta is 7-0 since replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan. The best way to get involved with this game, though, is Under the total. It's easy to think offense with LeBron James and the Lakers. But LA actually ranks second in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game at 106.3. That number shrinks even more to 105.7 if you go by just the last four games. The Hawks have really improved defensively and professionally under the veteran tutelage of McMillan. Atlanta has allowed fewer than 113 points in seven of its last eight games. The Hawks have permitted an average of only 97 points during their past four games. The teams last met on Feb. 1 and there were just 206 points scored in 107-99 Lakers' victory. This also is a rare home day game for the Lakers so the early start time is another checkmark to the Under.
03-20-21	Dayton v. Memphis UNDER 138		60-71	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
Memphis has been a monster Under team going below the total 69 percent of the time during its last 63 games. The Tigers ranked 21st in the country in scoring defense holding their foes to 62.9 points a game. Dayton ranks 226th in scoring, averaging fewer than 70 points per game. The Flyers give up 67.2 points, which ranks 91st in scoring defense. There are some other elements that set up this Under. The game is being played at a neutral site - the UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas. It's also an early start time. Dayton has not played in 15 days. Memphis last played a week ago losing, 76-74, in heart-breaking fashion to Houston in the AAC Tournament Conference. So the Tigers may not have their full intensity since they expected to reach the NCAA Tournament not the NIT, while the Flyers could be dealing with plenty of rust.
03-19-21	Morehead State +13 v. West Virginia		67-84	Loss	-109	19 h 12 m	Show
Look out for Morehead State. The Eagles are a legitimate sleeper on a huge 19-1 roll with their latest victory being an upset of top-seeded Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference. I like the momentum and confidence the Eagles bring into the tournament. They rank in the top 35 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Eagles also have one of the top freshmen big men in the country in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome. He destroyed Belmont in the OVC title game with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Broome can hold his own against West Virginia's rugged inside force Derek Culver. West Virginia is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Maybe the Mountaineers can just turn the switch, but I certainly don't see them winning by double-digits.
03-19-21	Blues v. Sharks OVER 5.5		2-1	Loss	-121	17 h 37 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low at 5 1/2 with juice on the Over. Early marketplace activity has pushed the total up to 6 at many betting outlets. Going Over still is the way to go. The Blues are in desperation mode having lost five in a row. They trailed the Kings 3-0 in the first period during their last game this past Wednesday. Expect more urgency and quicker pace from the Blues, who came out flat having been idle the previous four days. St. Louis should be at full strength offensively with Tyler Bozak back and Jaden Schwartz expected to play here. San Jose has the worst defense in the NHL giving up an average of 3.5 goals per game. The Sharks, though, can score and their defensemen are offensive-minded. San Jose has produced at least 3 goals in four of its last five games. The Blues rank 25th defensively allowing 3.2 goals a game. St. Louis is in bad form defensively, too, surrendering an average of 4.2 goals in its last five games.
03-19-21	Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7		60-69	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
Liberty plays extremely slow, but is very efficient offensively. The Flames could frustrate Oklahoma State. But I don't believe that will happen. The Cowboys are hot, played a far more difficult schedule and feature superstar guard Cade Cunningham. That combination should enable them to cover this mid-range number. Oklahoma State emerged as a Big 12 Conference power knocking off No. 2 Baylor in the conference semifinals before falling to Texas, 91-86, in the conference tourney title game. That loss may actually help the Cowboys because they won't be taking Liberty lightly after defeating six ranked teams this month. Oklahoma State has covered seven of the eight times it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Flames earned their way to the NCAA Tournament by capturing the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. I regard the Atlantic Sun as a bottom-five conference. One of Liberty's non-league victories came against Lancaster Bible, 90-49. So that padded the Flames' season statistics. When Liberty went up against NCAA Tournament teams Missouri and Purdue earlier in the season they lost by 9 and 13 points.
03-19-21	Oral Roberts +16 v. Ohio State		75-72	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Ohio State does not have a good recent history in the NCAA Tourney. The Buckeyes enter this first round matchup banged-up and off a grueling four-day Big Ten Tournament that didn't conclude until Sunday. The Buckeyes had two overtime games, too, in the Big Ten Tourney. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, has had ample rest and preparation time having won the Summit League Tournament back on March 9. The Golden Eagles average nearly four more points than Ohio State and lead the nation in free throw percentage at 82.4 percent in made 3-pointers. They have one of the best guards in the nation, Max Abmas, to go with inside scoring. So this is going to be a very tough matchup for Ohio State, which may not be 100 percent physically and mentally ready.
03-19-21	Colgate v. Arkansas -8		68-85	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Colgate and Arkansas are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. But that's where the similarity ends. The Razorbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games with all of their victories during this span occurring versus SEC opponents. Arkansas has won eight games against NCAA Tournament teams, including Alabama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, North Texas, Abilene Christian and Oral Roberts. Arkansas has the best player on the court, too, in Moses Moody. Colgate has only played 15 games this season - all of which were in their Patriot League. Now the Raiders are asked to stay within single digits of maybe the best team in the SEC. I don't see it. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times it has been favored, covering against better teams than Colgate.
03-18-21	Hornets +8 v. Lakers		105-116	Loss	-106	18 h 53 m	Show
The defending world champion Lakers of LeBron James are the epitome of the big-market, public team. The Hornets are the complete opposite. They are small-market and almost always flying below the radar screen. This often leads to value in backing the Hornets and fading the Lakers - in the right circumstances. This is such a spot. Charlotte is coming off a 129-104 blowout loss to the Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night. The good news for the Hornets from that stinging defeat was none of their players reached the 28-minute playing mark. The Hornets are healthy, which they haven't been, and shouldn't be weary for this matchup especially given their solid team depth. They actually have one of the league's deepest backcourts with potential rookie-of-the-year LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham and Malik Monk. Previous to losing to Denver, the Hornets were 5-1 in their last six games. They are an amazing 11-1 ATS following a non point spread cover. The Lakers are the ones with a bit of a fatigue element as this marks their third game in four days. LA is coming off blowout victories against the Warriors this past Monday and Timberwolves from Tuesday. The Lakers host the hot Hawks, winners of six in a row, on Saturday. So this looms as a real flat spot for LA. Often overvalued when playing at home, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times as home chalk when laying six or more points. So this isn't their best role.
03-18-21	Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 241.5		93-101	Win	100	17 h 24 m	Show
The Pelicans had the biggest choke job of the season when these teams met two days ago in Portland. New Orleans blew a 17-point lead during the final six minutes to lose, 125-124. There were 249 points scored in that game. So why try to make an Under work here besides the obvious of going below an extremely high total? Besides these teams knowing each other's tendencies from having just met and figuring the Pelicans are going to play with super intensity after their massive blown opportunity, a look at Tuesday's box score reveals just what it took to score this many points: New Orleans: Shot 52 percent from the floor, made 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range for 48 percent and hit 16 of 20 free throws for 80 percent. The Pelicans rank 28th in free throw percentage at 73.2 percent and are 19th in 3-point shooting accuracy at 35.8 percent. Prior to Tuesday's game, Portland had given up an average of 113.8 points in its last eight games. That's below average, but not bottom-seven. A total this high is normally reserved for bottom-five type defenses. Portland: The Trail Blazers also shot 52 percent from the field in Tuesday's game and didn't miss a free throw going 31-for-31! The Trail Blazers rank 26th in field goal percentage at 44.8 percent. If you discount a 135-108 loss to the Timberwolves, the Trail Blazers had surrendered an average of just 100 points in their three previous games.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-18-21	Blackhawks v. Lightning OVER 6		2-4	Push	0	3 h 23 m	Show
The Blackhawks' defense is slipping and so is goalie Kevin Lankinen, who was outstanding earlier in the season. Chicago is giving up an average of 4.8 goals during its last five games. Now the Blackhawks face their worst opponent - Tampa Bay. The defending Stanley Cup champions have averaged 5.5 goals in going 4-0 versus Chicago this season. The Lightning lead the NHL in scoring at 3.6 goals a game. They've scored 4 or more goals in five of their last six games. However, the Lightning's defense has not looked good. Tampa Bay has surrendered at least 3 goals in each of its past seven games. The Blackhawks have a slightly above average offense, but the league's No. 3 power play unit.
03-17-21	Blues -138 v. Kings		1-4	Loss	-138	19 h 47 m	Show
The listless Kings lost 4-1 to the Avalanche in Denver on Sunday and then couldn't get out of Denver due to a snowstorm causing Monday's scheduled matchup to be postponed until today. So this will be the Kings' first home game in 11 days. They draw the Blues in stop-the-pain mode. The Blues own the best road record in the West Division at 10-2-2. St. Louis, though, has lost a season-high four games in a row. Note, however, three of these defeats occurred in overtime. The Blues' last two games were against Las Vegas so this is a major drop in class. While the Kings have been dealing with traveling nightmares, the Blues have been on the West Coast since the end of February. St. Louis is more than ready, having been idle since Saturday. St. Louis also is getting healthier. Vladimir Tarasenko, the Blues' leading goal scorer from 2014-19, has produced four points in four games since returning from offseason shoulder surgery. Tyler Bozak is expected to play against the Kings. He's been out 21 games due to a concussion. There's also the possibility the Blues get back Jaden Schwartz from a lower-body injury. Meanwhile the Kings could be minus their leading scorer and key cog on their power play, Dustin Brown. He didn't play Sunday due to an upper-body injury and is questionable here.
03-17-21	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	19 h 44 m	Show
Returning home from a six-game road trip, the Golden Knights were far from sharp when they hosted San Jose this past Monday. Sure enough Las Vega was flat. But the Golden Knights still managed to beat San Jose, 2-1. Now the Golden Knights are more rested and primed to destroy the opponent they hate the most. Las Vegas is the vastly superior team and won't lack motivation. The Golden Knights are third defensively giving up 2.2 goals per game. Marc-Andre Fleury is in the argument for best goalie this season. Las Vegas is a top-10 scoring team. The Sharks give up the most goals per game in the league at 3.5. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Las Vegas has defeated San Jose five times in a row. The Sharks are 6-13 the past 19 times when playing on one day's rest. The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of their last 52 home contests. Kill spot here so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
03-17-21	Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5		109-105	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
Joel Embiid was having an MVP-caliber season until he suffered a knee injury two games ago. He's out replaced by a combination of Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard. Embiid averages 29.9 points. Bradley and Howard average a combined 11 points. Rarely do they go to the free throw line either and whey they do there's about a 40 percent chance they will miss. So without Embiid, I see this total as being too high. The 76ers just beat the physical Knicks, 99-96, at home Tuesday night. This marks Philadelphia's third game in four days and second in two nights. A fast-paced, up-tempo game from the 76ers should not be expected especially when the plodding and way over-the-hill Howard is on the floor. The Bucks' defense is down from the past couple of seasons, but they still rank seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Philadelphia ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in scoring defense giving up 110.1 points per game. The Bucks could experience some culture shock having just played the Wizards twice. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
03-16-21	Ducks v. Avalanche OVER 5.5		4-8	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
Maybe it's because of missing steady injured defenseman Hampus Lindholm. Or it could be less than stellar goaltending. But Anaheim has been hemorrhaging defensively allowing an average of 4.6 goals during their last five games. Colorado has the offensive talent to take advantage especially with Nathan MacKinnon back in top form following an upper-body injury. The Avalanche have won three in a row firing off 133 shots on goal during this three-game win streak. However, they have only eight goals to show for it having come across some strong goaltending. That won't be the case here, not with how bad the Ducks have been defensively. The Avalanche won't be letting up either after blowing a two-goal lead when the teams last met 10 days ago in Denver. The Ducks pulled out a 5-4 overtime victory in that game. The Ducks have scored just two goals in their last three games - and that was playing the Kings and defensively-challenged Sharks twice. Trade rumors are swirling around the team. So I expect the Ducks to throw caution to the wind in this matchup knowing they can't stay competitive like they were during the first 1 1/2 months of the season by relying on defense and playing conservative. That doesn't work anymore for them.
03-16-21	Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5	Top	119-107	Loss	-110	9 h 57 m	Show
Nate McMillan isn't an elite coach. But he's a solid pro and he has the Hawks playing and looking far more respectable than they did under Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta has surrendered an average of just 104.5 points in its last four games. The Hawks have moved into the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rank No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. Houston is last in 3-point shooting percentage. So don't expect the Rockets to hit many 3-pointers. Houston is decimated with injuries, averaging only 99.8 points a game during their last six games. The Cavaliers are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they average 103.3 points. Houston may get Danuel House Jr. back, but Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon are not expected to play leaving just Victor Oladipo as the Rockets' lone respectable scoring threat. Note, too, that 80 percent of the Rockets' home games this season have gone Under at 12-3-1.
03-16-21	Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild		0-3	Loss	-136	16 h 59 m	Show
I don't want to fully step in against a hot Minnesota Wild team, but I do believe Arizona is going to throw its best punch here. The Coyotes are desperate to avoid being swept three games by Minnesota. So I'm going to lay the juice and take a 1 1/2 goal cushion with the puck line. The Wild shut out the Coyotes, 4-0, this past Friday and followed that up with a 4-1 victory this past Sunday. Those scores are misleading, though. Both games were tied entering the final period. Can the Coyotes bounce back? They aren't some bottom-feeder. The Coyotes are a .500 team that won't lack motivation. They've shown a propensity to come through in these types of situations going 7-2 the past nine times when playing for the third time in four days. Arizona would be 10-5 in its last 15 games if given plus 1 1/2 goals.
03-16-21	Hurricanes v. Red Wings OVER 5.5		2-4	Win	100	15 h 28 m	Show
The Hurricanes defeated the Red Wings, 2-1, this past Sunday. Carolina is the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL averaging 3.4 goals per game. The Hurricanes had scored 3 or more goals in seven consecutive games until Sunday. Detroit ranks 29th defensively giving up 3.4 goals per game. So, yes, I'm expecting more goals from the Hurricanes in this one. But I'm also expecting Detroit to hold up its bargain in getting this total to go Over. The Red Wings entered Sunday's matchup against Carolina off a season-high six goal game against Tampa Bay this past Thursday. The Red Wings, however, strangely were passive for the first two periods before opening things up more in the third period when they scored their lone goal. Detroit coach Jeff Blashill ripped into his team for its lack of offense. Having Dylan Larkin back from injury is a huge plus for Detroit's offense. The combination of the Hurricanes' high-scoring attack and the Red Wings coming out with a stronger scoring mentality should push this total Over.
03-15-21	Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6	Top	1-2	Loss	-118	16 h 51 m	Show
Las Vegas has averaged 4 goals a game in going 3-0 versus the Sharks this season. San Jose ranks 31st defensively allowing 3.6 goals a game. Given their depth, which includes four strong lines, and deep hatred of the Sharks the Golden Knights should be good for at least four goals again. The Golden Knights have scored 3 or more goals in nine of their last 10 games, hitting five goals in half of those games. The Sharks have tallied 3 or more goals in six of their last eight games, scoring six goals in three of those games. Marc-Andre Fleury has been brilliant for Las Vegas leading the NHL in GAA at 1.181 and save percentage at .935. The 36-year-old Fleury, however, is carrying a high fatigue rating having started 15 of the last 16 games. He was saved from going on COVID-19 protocol after a false-positive Covid-19 test this past Thursday. At some point, the Golden Knights are going to need to give Fleury a rest day. Obviously it would be a major bonus to the Over if that came here.
03-15-21	Oilers v. Flames UNDER 6.5		3-4	Loss	-130	15 h 49 m	Show
Since no-nonsense coach Darryl Sutter has been behind the bench, the Flames are 2-0. The Flames beat the Canadiens 3-1 and 2-1 in those games. These low-scoring games weren't a fluke. The Flames have made a huge commitment to defend better with their forwards aggressively checking since Sutter took over. Despite the presence of superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have scored 3 or fewer goals in seven of their last nine games. Edmonton, though, has been underrated defensively. The Oilers have given up an average of just 1.8 goals during their last five games. They haven't allowed more than two goals in each of their past five games.
03-15-21	Clippers -118 v. Mavs	Top	109-99	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
The Clippers may have got caught peeking ahead to this matchup as they lost, 135-115, to the Pelicans on the road Sunday. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis may come up big here for Dallas, but I want the Clippers going for me in their Revenge Game of the Year. Actually make that Revenge Game of the Century. Recall, if you must, the Clippers hosting the Mavericks two days after Christmas. Dallas absolutely humiliated LA, 124-73. The Mavericks led 77-27 at halftime! It was the biggest halftime deficit ever and the worst defeat in Clippers franchise history - which says a lot. The Clippers haven't been playing well, but they did bury the Warriors, 130-104, this past Thursday before falling to New Orleans. The Warriors just upset the Jazz yesterday. The Clippers shouldn't have a fatigue issue as this is just their third game since March 4. They have covered the past six times when playing without rest. Dallas enters this matchup fat and happy having gone 7-2 in its last nine games and off a highly-satisfying, 116-103, road victory against the Nuggets this past Saturday. Dallas is 6-15 ATS the last 21 times hosting an opponent with a winning road record. The Clippers also have covered in five of their last six visits to Dallas.
03-15-21	Canucks v. Senators UNDER 6.5		3-2	Win	100	13 h 48 m	Show
He doesn't get much recognition, but Vancouver's Thatcher Demko has been one of the hottest goalies. He is 5-1 with a .952 save percentage during his past seven starts. If you discount a five-goal game by the Canadiens, the Canucks have permitted just five goals in their past four games. The Senators just held the Maple Leafs to three goals in a 4-3 Sunday victory behind backup goalie Joey Daccord. He was filling in for injured Matt Murray. The Senators produced a tremendous effort to protect Daccord from the Maple Leafs, who rank No. 2 in the NHL in scoring. Daccord should have an added boost of confidence if he has to be in net again. The Canucks rank 20th in scoring and are thin at center with Elias Pettersson and Tyler Motte out. Pettersson is Vancouver's third-leading goal scorer.
03-14-21	Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 223.5	Top	134-107	Loss	-110	13 h 30 m	Show
Down John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker, the Rockets could have the worst offense in the NBA. Houston's offense should pick up as early as Tuesday when Wall and Wood could return. But right now it's terrible. The Rockets are averaging 99.8 points in their last eight games. Boston's defense has been disappointing this season. The Celtics, though, have played average-to-well above average offenses during each of their past dozen games. They also have back defensive whiz Marcus Smart. Now the Celtics finally are drawing an offensively-challenged opponent. Houston Coach Stephen Silas has emphasized defense since becoming the Rockets coach. Houston is on a 15-game losing streak, but the short-handed Rockets showed plenty of moxie in their last game on the road against the powerful Jazz rallying from 26 points down to cut Utah's lead to four points in the fourth quarterback before losing. The Celtics are a below average scoring team when on the road. Boston is averaging only 103.7 points in its past seven away games.
03-14-21	Hurricanes v. Red Wings +1.5		2-1	Win	100	12 h 41 m	Show
Yes, the Red Wings are a bad team. One reason for this is lack of depth. Detroit has been battered by injuries. Now, though, the Red Wings have gotten healthier. Their best center, Dylan Larkin, and defenseman Troy Stecher are back in the lineup. The Red Wings showed life with those two back in the lineup taking on powerful Tampa Bay during their last two games. The Red Wings lost 4-3 in overtime and then knocked off the reigning Stanley Cup champions, 6-4, this past Thursday. That was a season high in goals for Detroit. Here's an interesting quote from Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill: "... When we lost a number of guys, it hurt us, and when we've been healthy, we've played pretty good hockey overall." Backed by a 1 1/2-goal cushion on the puck line, I believe Detroit can hang in if not ambush the red-hot Hurricanes. Carolina could be in a letdown spot having won seven in a row. The Hurricanes have been relying on a highly effective power play unit to supplement their goal production. They may not get so many calls, however, being on the road. This is Carolina's first road game in 12 days. The Hurricanes have won seven in a row, but three of those victories came against the struggling Predators and three of their victories during their win streak occurred in overtime. Carolina also is going to be minus injured Vincent Trocheck. He's having a tremendous season leading the Hurricanes in goals with 13 and in points with 24.
03-14-21	Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5		1-4	Win	100	9 h 45 m	Show
Sparked by outstanding goalie play, Minnesota is giving up just 2.2 goals per game during its last 13 games. The Wild face an Arizona squad that ranks 26th in scoring and takes the fewest shots on goal in the NHL. The teams just met two days ago in Minnesota and the Wild shut out the Coyotes, 4-0. That was the fourth straight road game the Coyotes have gone Under the total. Arizona has given up 2 or fewer goals in four of its last six games. Note this is an early start time so that's a plus, too, for the Under.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-13-21	Oilers v. Canucks UNDER 6.5		1-2	Win	100	11 h 55 m	Show
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl draw all the headlines for Edmonton. They are superstars. But lost in the glare of the brilliance of those two players is an underrated Edmonton defense that has been playing quite well. The Oilers have surrendered just seven goals during their last four games. Edmonton draws a Vancouver attack that is heavily crippled. Out are Tyler Motte, Justin Bailey and Elias Pettersson. In addition, Brandon Sutter, Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussell missed Friday practice with injuries. Vancouver has scored 3 or fewer goals in eight of its last 10 games. So expect a tight-checking defensive game from the Canucks, who should be fired-up after an embarrassing 5-1 home loss to the Canadiens in their last game three days ago. Prior to losing to Montreal, the Canucks had given up just four goals in their previous three games - two of which came against the high-scoring Maple Leafs.
03-13-21	Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 5.5		5-1	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
The Golden Knights beat the Blues, 5-4, in overtime on Friday. That was with both team's going with their starting goalies. Now we're likely to see backup goalies, rookie Logan Thompson for Las Vegas and Ville Husso, who has a 3.48 goals against average, for St. Louis. Both teams are missing key defensemen, too. Alex Pietrangelo is out for Las Vegas and Colton Parayko is sidelined for St. Louis. The Golden Knights have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their past nine games. The Blues have permitted an average of 3.7 goals in their last seven games. The Blues, though, have scored at least three goals in six of their past seven games. They also have Vladimir Tarasenko rounding into top shape. He had a goal and an assist on Friday.
03-13-21	Ohio v. Buffalo -2		84-69	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
03-13-21	Canadiens v. Flames UNDER 5.5		1-3	Win	103	8 h 46 m	Show
Calgary took advantage of a tired Montreal team playing its third game in four days and without rest to edge the Canadiens, 2-1, at home this past Thursday night. Now the teams are back at it today. Expect another low-scoring game. Canadiens goalie Carey Price is playing his best hockey in the last several years stopping 105 of 109 shots during his past four games for a save percentage of .963. Price should be back in net after backup Jake Allen played Thursday. Montreal could only manage 18 shots on goal against Calgary two days ago. The Flames, showing the influence of new coach Darryl Sutter, controlled tempo with aggressive forechecking. The Canadiens will have more energy this time around, but the Flames look much better mentally and performance-wise under Sutter.
03-13-21	Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145	Top	86-91	Loss	-110	14 h 45 m	Show
The last meeting between Oklahoma State-Texas occurred on Feb. 6. The game went into double overtime - and still went Under - with Oklahoma State winning, 75-67, for a combined 142 points. Oklahoma State has picked a great time to peak and play its best defense. The Cowboys reached this Big 12 Conference Tournament championship game by holding West Virginia to 69 points, eight points below the Mountaineers' season average, and limiting Baylor to 74 points. That was 11 points under the Bears' season average. Texas has been playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have limited their past six foes to an average of 66 points in regulation. Not one of their last six opponents scored more than 68 points in regulation against them. The Longhorns also get the benefit of extra rest since their semifinal matchup against Kansas was cancelled when the Jayhawks had a COVID-19 problem.
03-13-21	Utah State v. San Diego State -113		57-68	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Revenge can be overrated. But not here. San Diego State has been hoping for this championship matchup of the Mountain West Conference Tournament ever since Utah State swept the Aztecs back in mid-January. Utah State won those games, 57-45 and 64-59. Both were played in snowy Logan, Utah. Now the teams are at neutral site Las Vegas. San Diego State hasn't lost since going 0-2 to Utah State winning 13 in a row. The Aztecs have the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 60.1 points. They also rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. San Diego State's offense has improved and the Aztecs have a deeper bench, which is magnified during conference tournament time as this is each team's third game in three days. The Aztecs caught a break being the earlier Friday game. Utah State had to play in the late Friday game not leaving the gym at the Thomas & Mack Center until after midnight.
03-12-21	Rockets +17 v. Jazz		99-114	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here.
03-12-21	Golden Knights -108 v. Blues		5-4	Win	100	18 h 11 m	Show
This marks the Blues' first home game since Feb. 24. Being back in St. Louis, though, hasn't necessarily been good for the Blues as they are 1-6 in their past seven home contests. St. Louis draws an angry Las Vegas squad that was swept two games against the Wild in Minnesota. The Golden Knights haven't lost three in a row all season. It's step-up time for the Blues as in their last 19 games they've played just four teams - Sharks, Kings, Ducks and Coyotes. Those are the bottom-four teams in the West Division. The Blues are playing short-handed minus several key forwards, including Jaden Schwartz, and without their top defenseman, Colton Parayko. Las Vegas holds a strong goalie edge with Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been one of the three-best goalies this season. St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington is having a disappointing season. The Golden Knights have scored 3 or more goals in seven of their last eight games.