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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-06-17	Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5	Top	2-4	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
I'm surprised this line is not above 5. Even though the juice has gotten heavy on the over, it's still worth laying. It's an added plus if Sidney Crosby plays. There has been at least five goals in all four games of the series and nine straight in the series. There also has been a minium of five goals scored in 17 of the Penguins' past 18 games. Not only could the Penguins get back Crosby, who is expected to play after practicing on Friday, but Conor Sheary, too. Sheary scored 23 goals during the regular season. He missed Game 4 after suffering a concussion in Game 3. Sheary practiced, too, Friday. Washington goalie Braden Holtby hasn't played up to his reigning Vezine Trophy status giving up three goals per game with just an .867 save percentage. The Capitals are due for a big scoring game with their quick strike capabilities. This is their game to win. Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been playing above his head. Capitals coach Barry Trotz moved Alex Ovechkin to the third line, which should ensure maxium offense for Washington on all three lines.
05-05-17	Oilers v. Ducks UNDER 5.5		3-4	Loss	-119	18 h 42 m	Show
Now that this series is down to the best-of-three, I see Edmonton and Anaheim tightening its defenses and playing more conservative. There have been a combined 16 goals scored during the past two games with each game of course going Over. The last time Edmonton was involved in three straight Overs was Feb. 11-16. It has been even longer for Anaheim. You have to go back to Dec. 11-15 to find the last time the Ducks went Over three consecutive times. Goalie Cam Talbot played much better for the Oilers during the first two games of the series, which were played in Anaheim. Anaheim goalie John Gibson is due to play better, too. The Ducks are a veteran, physical team. Ryan Kesler can do a good job shadowing Connor McDavid. The Oilers would be hard-pressed to score multiple goals if McDavid is neutralized.
05-05-17	Cavs -2.5 v. Raptors	Top	115-94	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
The Raptors found themselves down 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Finals playoff series against the Cavaliers last year after losing the first two games in Cleveland. Toronto returned home and beat Cleveland by 15 points holding the Cavaliers to 84 points. Will history repeat itself? No. There are too many differences from last season starting with how great the Cavaliers are playing. Cleveland is averaging 120.5 points in the series winning by 11 and 22 points, respectively. LeBron James is playing at an "A" level, which is the highest form of basketball. His teammates also are playing at peak efficiency. The Cavaliers aren't going to forget what happened last season when they went to Toronto up 2-0 in the series. They will be mentally focused to go with their outstanding court performances. Not only do the Raptors face a supreme challenge of slowing down the Cavaliers - something they have yet to do - but they likely will be without All-Star point guard Kyle Lowery. He didn't practice Thursday after suffering a badly sprained ankle during the third quarter of Wednesday's Game 2. Even if Lowery can give it a go, his effectiveness is going to be extremely limited. He only kept playing on the ankle in Game 2 because it didn't stiffen up. "Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeMar DeRozan was quoted as saying about Lowery. "So for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us." DeRozan is the Raptors' other key player and he's cold scoring only five points in Game 2. DeRozan is frustrated, but the Cavaliers can just keep clamping down on him giving him no space while none of Toronto's guards and wings step up. DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson are a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the floor. Yes, the Raptors will be super motivated. But it's asking too much of them to turn around their offense - just like a light switch - especially with Lowry hurt, while suddenly slowing down the unstoppable James and putting an end to the Cavaliers' hot shooting from 3-point range. All of that would simply defy logic - and basketball.
05-05-17	Yankees v. Cubs -115		3-2	Loss	-115	8 h 43 m	Show
Both teams are playing well, but the defending world champion Cubs are much superior to the Yankees. In a pitching matchup of Michael Pineda versus Kyle Hendricks and Chicago playing at Wrigley Field, this is a cheap price to lay with the Cubs. Chicago has won 40 of its past 57 home games. The Cubs also are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts. Hendricks, the NL's ERA leader last season, began the year slow but has looked much better. Hendricks has allowed just two runs during his past two starts spanning 12 innings facing the Pirates and Red Sox. The Yankees have never faced Hendricks. The Yankees rely on the long ball. They've gotten 13 homers this season from Aaron Judge, including six in his last six games. But the wind is going to be blowing in at around 20 mph limiting New York's power. I like the Cubs' ability to manufacture runs more than the Yankees especially with Pineda pitching in a totally unfamilar park.
05-04-17	Celtics v. Wizards -5	Top	89-116	Win	100	21 h 30 m	Show
Call it playing the Zig/Zag theory if you care to. But I want the Wizards going for me at home down 0-2 in their series against Boston. Not only only has the home team covered each of the last six times these two teams have met, but the Wizards have played the Celtics tough controlling each of the first two games for various stretches. The Wizards should have easily covered in Game 2, but lost in overtime by 10 points. Isaiah Thomas had a came for the ages pouring in 29 of his 53 points during the fourth quarter and overtime in memory of his 23-year-old sister, who died on the eve of the playoffs. This time it's the Wizards' turn to play with great emotion. They have been outstanding at Verizon Center this season covering 57 percent of their home games. As great as Thomas has been, I would take John Wall over him as the best player on the court. The key for the Wizards is getting better front court production. That should happen here with Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris being able to avoid foul trouble at home. Morris proved he had overcome a sprained ankle suffered in Game 1 by playing a strong Game 2. However, he fouled out in just 27 minutes.
05-04-17	A's +106 v. Twins		8-5	Win	106	6 h 20 m	Show
I won't pass up a chance to take a 'dog price against Kyle Gibson. who I regard as one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. A's starter Jharel Cotton has been up-and-down, but has intriguing potential. He's been dynamite during his two day starts going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA while holding foes to a .182 average.
05-03-17	Angels v. Mariners -109		7-8	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
I don't like the Angels on the road, nor the pitching matchup they have going for them here. Now that the price has come down, I'm getting involved with the Mariners. Seattle has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times at home. The Angels are 6-9 on the road this season. The pitching matchup is journeyman Ricky Nolasco versus Hisashi Iwakuma. Give me Iwakuma, coming off a strong performance and with a 2.76 lifetime ERA versus the Angels in 20 games. That ERA shrinks to 2.32 when he's pitched against the Angels at Safeco Field, which has been 10 times. Nolasco is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career outings versus the Mariners. I also don't like the Angels' late relief, which has been thinned by injuries.
05-03-17	Phillies v. Cubs OVER 6.5		4-5	Win	100	6 h 57 m	Show
The weather is going to be cold and there will be a slight wind blowing in, but now that this total has gone under 7 I'm involved in the Over. Jerad Eickhoff has a 4.91 road ERA and the Phillies' bullpen lacks a dominant closer. I can't see their pitching shutting down the Cubs offense. The over has cashed in 12 of Chicago's last 14 games. Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was before the mid-point of last season. He's still good, but no longer great. The Phillies have a number of underrated hitters that can take advantage.
05-03-17	Pirates -122 v. Reds	Top	2-7	Loss	-122	19 h 48 m	Show
The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games and starting Rookie Davis against Jameson Taillon here. This is a mismatch of epic porportions that isn't being priced that way. Taillon is a star in the making. He had a 3.38 ERA last season during his rookie season and is even better this season with a 2-0 mark and 2.08 ERA. The Pirates are 14-6 in his last 20 starts. Taillon is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Reds. This could be the last time to play against Davis because it won't be long before he's pulled from Cincinnati's rotation. The first-year major leaguer is making his fourth career start. He's pitched 9 2/3 innings and allowed 18 hits, including three homers. His ERA is 11.72. The most he's gone is four innings. The Reds' bullpen is suspect especially their middle relief. The Pirates are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 40 runs in their last six games. Free Wednesday Play Blue Jays minus $1.04 at Yankees The price is right to back the Blue Jays, who hold a strong starting pitching edge with Marcus Stroman facing 36-year-old C.C. Sabaitha. Stroman, who is from Long Island, always gets motivated to pitch against the Yankees. He is 5-2 lifetime against them with a 2.17 ERA. Stroman is pitching well this season allowing two runs or less in four of his five starts. Sabathia started well this year, but already is starting to fade. He is 0-1 in his last two starts with a 9.28 ERA. He was hammered by the Orioles during his last start this past Friday for seven runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Yankees are likely to be down to third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka in this game. Starting catcher Gary Sanchez is rehabbing in Triple A and backup Austin Romine suffered a groin injury on Tuesday night and had to leave the game. Higashioka doesn't have a hit in 15 at bats this season. New York has other injuries, too, with first baseman Greg Bird on the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury bothered by a nerve injury in his left elbow.
05-02-17	Blues +143 v. Predators		1-2	Loss	-100	16 h 39 m	Show
Down 2-1 in the series, I see a big effort here from the Blues. St. Louis is off its worst performance of the series losing, 3-1, this past Sunday. It has been two months since the Blues last lost two in a row. St. Louis followed with a victory during its previous six losses. Nashville is playing well. But the Predators aren't a powerhouse so this price is inflated. Jake Allen has been stopping everything he has been seeing. Unfortunately for Allen and the Blues, the goalie never saw any of Nashville's three goals that came in Game 3. Allen was screened on two of them and the other came from a flick off his skate from a player behind him. Allen has been playing as well as any goalie during the playoffs. The Blues have proven themselves on the road winning 20 of their last 28 away contests. They also are 5-1 on one day's rest.
05-02-17	Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5	Top	7-9	Loss	-105	6 h 37 m	Show
Matt Harvey didn't look good in his last start, which was unexpected when he was forced to fill-in. Harvey, though, is regaining his pre-injury dominance. I have confidence in him against the Braves especially now that's he fully prepared. The under has cashed five of the last six times Harvey has pitched on the road. I'm also liking R.A. Dickey in this spot. Dickey hasn't yielded more than three earned runs during any of his four starts this season. Dickey is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four career appearances versus the Mets. The Mets' lineup isn't nearly as fierce minus Yoenis Cespedes, their best power hitter.
05-01-17	Rockets v. Spurs -5.5	Top	126-99	Loss	-115	15 h 5 m	Show
It's not a coincidence the Spurs have a strong record of success in the opening game of a playoff round. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he's ready to go, well prepared. San Antonio opened with a 29-point home win against Memphis this season in their first series game. Last year, the Spurs beat both the Grizzlies and Thunder by 32 points apiece in their respective series openers, both in San Antonion. Then, two years ago, the Spurs defeated the Clippers by 27 points when they played their first series home game. Now the Spurs host the Rockets, who have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Thunder in their first-round playoff series despite shooting just 28.4 percent from 3-point range. The Rockets live and die more than any team with 3-point shots leading the league in attempts at 40.3 per game. San Antonio not only ranks fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage but led the league in 3-point accuracy making 39.1 percent from beyond the arc. The Spurs shot 41 percent from 3-point range against the Grizzlies in their first-round series. The Grizzlies were a much stronger defensive team than the Thunder. Then there is the Kawhi Leonard factor. The Rockets ranked 26th defensively. The Spurs, by contrast ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up 11 fewer points than Houston per game. The Rockets have no one who remotely can guard Leonard, who averaged 31.2 points in the series against the Grizzlies while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor and making 59 of 61 free throws. There isn't a better two-way player in basketball. The Rockets' main man, James Harden, has been bothered by an ankle injury. He shot just 13-of-41 for 31.7 percent from the field in Houston's last two games.
05-01-17	Capitals +109 v. Penguins		3-2	Win	109	15 h 58 m	Show
Perhaps it's a leap of faith, but I expect the Capitals and their star goalie, Braden Holtby, to respond strong in Game 3 in Pittsburgh with their season on the brink after losing the first two games of this series at home. Holtby hasn't looked good He was pulled in the Capitals' last game after giving up three goals on 14 shots through two periods this past Saturday. But he's a great goalie with a history of responding well after getting yanked. Holtby was lifted in four games this season for poor performances. He went 3-1 with a 2.27 GAA and .922 save percentage in his following game. It's not just Holtby. Defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is having a horrible series. He's due to play better. Even though the Capitals are 0-2 in the series, they have had twice as many shot attemps as the Penguins. Washington has won five of its last six road games and also is 39-12 the past 51 times when playing on one day's rest. Pittsburgh is banged-up. The Penguins' depth could be tested again if right wingers Patric Hornqvist and Tom Kuhnhack can't play. Defenseman Ron Hainsey also is questionable.
05-01-17	Indians v. Tigers +127		1-7	Win	127	11 h 18 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Trevor Bauer. This is too high of a road price to lay with Bauer against southpaw Danniel Norris. The Indians have lost seven of the last eight times they've faced a lefty starter. Bauer had a 6.39 ERA last September. He's continued bad with a 6.26 ERA with one quality start in four outings this season. Bauer already has surrenderd 11 extra-base hits in 23 innings, including five homers. Bauer has a 7.24 career ERA versus the Tigers in 11 appearances, including 10 starts. Norris, by contrast, has a 2-0 mark with a 1.69 ERA in four career starts versus the Indians.
05-01-17	Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees		7-1	Win	157	11 h 12 m	Show
This is a nice underdog value price. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has given up just two runs during this last three starts spanning 21 innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts this year. Estrada went 2-0 versus the Yankees last season with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. The Yankees are going with Luis Severino. New York is 4-12 in Severino's last 16 starts. Severino is showing signs of living up to his great potential, but has yet to prove consistent. So this is too high of a price on him. Severino is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in five career starts versus the Blue Jays. The Yankees' bullpen carries a fatigue rating, too, after a wild three-game series against the Orioles.
04-30-17	Cubs v. Red Sox UNDER 9	Top	2-6	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
Both starters - Kyle Hendricks and Eduardo Rodriguez - are good pitchers coming off excellent performances. Hendricks was due for some regression after leading the National League in earned run average last season. But his slow start was too much regression. He finally showed signs of turning his season around in his last start holding the Pirates scoreless in six innings with six strikeouts in a 1-0 win this past Tuesday. Hendricks is in his prime at 27. The Red Sox have never faced him. Only Hanley Ramirez and Josh Rutledge have at bats against him. Rodriguez is a very promising pitcher who has been held back by injuries. Now he's healthy. He was brilliant in his last start giving up one hit in six inning with seven strikeouts this past Sunday at Balitmore in a 6-2 victory over the Orioles. The Cubs have never faced Rodriguez either. Ben Zobrist is the only Chicago player with at bats against Rodriguez. Opponents are batting just .172 against Rodriguez. The under has cashed 78 percent of the time during Rodriguez's last 28 starts. Each team has a very strong closer, too. The weather isn't going to help the hitters either with temperatues forecast to be in the 40's for this Sunday night game.
04-30-17	Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics	Top	111-123	Loss	-105	9 h 23 m	Show
Let's rewind to each team's opening playoff series. The Wizards showed a lot of heart and ability to make necessary adjustments in beating the Hawks. John Wall played great and a number of role players came through. The Wizards enter this Game 1 with a lot of well-earned confidence. The Celtics lost the first two games of their series against the Bulls with both defeats coming at home. Then Chicago lost point guard Rajon Rondo. The Bulls were forced to fill his spot with a pair of stiffs, Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant. The result was four straight losses. Now Boston, which could have been eliminated if Rondo didn't get injured, has to step up and deal with Wall at point guard instead of Canaan. Wall averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists against the Hawks. The All-Star is playing his finest ball making a strong statement that he is a superstar. The Celtics' big scorer is Isaiah Thomas, who doesn't play defense nearly as well as Wall. Thomas averaged nearly 29 points during the regular season, but was held six points below his average against the Bulls. Thomas' shooting was off, especially from 3-point range where he missed 23 of 26 during the last three games. It's understandable that his mental focus is affected by the recent death of his sister. The Wizards should be more effective in the frontcourt, too, where they don't have to deal anymore with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. I find Al Horford overrated and Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson are lunch-bucket role players. Note, too, that Boston has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home games.
04-29-17	Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	5-6	Win	100	16 h 20 m	Show
The Phillies are better than perceived winners of six of their last seven. If given 1 1/2 runs, they would be 15-3 in their last 18 games. They have a higher winning percentage than the Dodgers. The pitching matchup pits Zach Eflin against Brandon McCarthy. Eflin is way below the radar screen. He's retired 33 of the last 39 batters he's faced and holds a 2.25 ERA. Philadelphia is 7-3 in his last last 10 starts. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Eflin a surprise element. McCarthy also has a 2.25 ERA, but has gotten far more publicity pitching for the Dodgers and going 3-0. McCarthy isn't nearly this good a pitcher. He's due for regression and has never beaten the Phillies. Philadelphia has scored four or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games. The Dodgers rank 21st in runs scored at 4.2 per game.
04-29-17	Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5		12-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
Jhoulys Chacin is a Petco Park pitcher. He can't pitch anywhere else. His road ERA is 11.93. Matt Cain isn't the three-time All-Star of years past. He hasn't been effective since 2012. His ERA the past two years is 5.64 and 5.79. He had a 7.82 ERA in 25 1/3 spring training innings giving up 37 hits. But because he's put together a surprising three quality starts in a row we have a total under 8 here. I'm not buying such a low total considering these two starting pitchers, neither of whom could be 100 percent. The Padres have a shaky bullpen and the Giants are vulnerable in middle relief and in in the setup roles. So these starters can't expect their bullpen to pull them out either. San Diego has surprising pop and the Giants are due to hit better.
04-28-17	Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz	Top	98-93	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
I'm not ready to write off the Clippers. Not with them getting this many points in a must-win spot down 3-2 in the series. The Clippers' three losses in the series have been by a combined 13 points, an average of 4.3 points per defeat. The Clippers led by seven points with seven minutes left before losing Game 4 and they erased an 11-point Utah fourth-quarter lead in Game 5 before falling. The Clippers outscored the Jazz during the fourth quarter of Game 5. Now I like the Jazz. But I don't see their entitlement to lay this many points. What have they accomplished to earn this right? The last time Utah won a playoff series was seven years ago. They don't have the experience, or proven background, to close out a series favored by this many points. Just two years ago, the Clippers beat the Spurs on the road, 102-96, in a first-round playoff series after losing Game 5 at home. Yes, the Clippers accomplished that with Blake Griffin, who won't play today because of a toe injury. Griffin isn't the Clippers' best player, though. Chris Paul is and he gives the Clippers not only veteran leadership but the best player on the court. Big man DeAndre Jordan is the Clippers' second most valuable player. He can neutralize Rudy Gobbert. That matchup is a standoff. But Paul makes the Clippers very dangerous in this spot. The Clippers also have back guard Austin Rivers. He played 18 minutes in Game 5 after being out nearly a month with a hamstring injury. The Jazz have been fortunate that Joe Johnson has stepped up for them. He's Utah's second-leading scorer in the series averaging 18.2 points shooting 53.4 percent from the floor. During the regular season, Johnson averaged 9.2 points and shot 43.6 percent from the field. So he's due to cool off.
04-28-17	Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8		5-7	Win	100	10 h 40 m	Show
These two teams have been scoring runs and that's reflected with the Reds going over in their last six games and the Cardinals going over in their last four. Discount a 9-1 loss to the Brewers two games ago and the Reds are averaging 6.2 runs in their last five games. The Cardinals are averaging 5.8 runs in their last six games sparked by a hot Dexter Fowler, the catalyst to their attack. The pitching matchup is Tim Adleman versus Lance Lynn. Adleman was hit hard during spring training. He's only in the Reds' starting rotation because of injuries. Adelman started 13 games last season and gave up 13 homers. So he's very vulnerable to the long ball. Lynn is making a comeback after missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery. He is pitching well, but pitchers coming off serious elbow surgery like Lynn did usually need a couple of years before regaining consistency. The Reds' lineup should be more powerful at cather with Devin Mesoraco set to make his season debut. Note there is a 50 percent chance of rain. A long rain delay could put middle relievers into the game sooner and for greater stretches. Neither team has strong bullpen depth.
04-28-17	Angels v. Rangers +112		6-3	Loss	-100	9 h 39 m	Show
The combination of the Angels being on the road and pitching Tyler Skaggs puts me on Texas at this price. The Angels have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups. They are 4-9 in Skaggs' past 13 starts. Skaggs has a 4.44 ERA. He has a lifetime 6.20 ERA versus Texas. The Rangers just faced him on April 11 getting to him for five runs on eight hits in five innings. Texas starter Nick Martinez looked good in his last start. He's pitching for his spot in the rotation so this game means a lot. He has a 2.51 lifetime ERA in six starts and two relief apperances against the Angels. The Rangers are coming of a season-high in runs and hits during a 14-3 win against the Twins on Wednesday. Stephen Nover's Free Friday Play Royals minus $1.28 hosting Twins How much do I want to fade Kyle Gibson? Enough to lay a price with the Royals, who are coming off an 0-7 road trip and are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. Gibson is in the argument for worst starting pitcher in the majors. He was brutal last season going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and he has the second-highest ERA (9.00) of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings this year. The 0-3 Gibson couldn't reach the fourth inning against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday giving up seven runs before departing. He's surrendered 17 runs in 17 innings. The Twins have been patient with Gibson because he was their first-round pick in 2009. They had high hopes for him. But he is who he is. He's 32-41 lifetime with a 4.72 ERA and getting worse not better as the league is familiar with him. Gibson is a sinkerball pitcher. But he hasn't been getting ground ball outs the past two seasons. His fly ball rate of 30.2 percent this season would be a career-high. Opponents are batting an insane .467 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.343 when facing Gibson the second time through the order. Gibson's stuff is totally ineffective. Going against Gibson is the biggest reason why I'm involved in this game. There are other factors, though. The Royals are a good home team. That's held up this season where they have a winning record. The Twins are a bad road club losers of 22 of their past 32 away contests. Royals starter Ian Kennedy is off to an excellent start even if his record is 0-2. He has a 2.08 ERA. Kennedy made five starts against the Twins last season and went 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA. Kansas City is 5-1 the past six times Kennedy has faced Minnesota. The Royals need to turn things around now at home to regain the faith of their fans. This is a team, remember, that won the World Series just two years ago and remains strong defensively. The Royals really want payback, too, after the Twins swept them in Minnesota to begin the season with two of those three defeats coming in blowout fashion. The Royals dominated the Twins last season winning 15 of 19, including going 9-1 at Kauffman Stadium. Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar are all too good of players to be batting .220 or less. The Royals are due to bust out - and they couldn't fnd an easier pitcher to do it against. The price is low enough to get involved.
04-27-17	Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5	Top	103-96	Loss	-115	15 h 43 m	Show
There are no secrets this late in the second-round of the playoffs. Each team has won on its home-court. I see that pattern continuing here. The Grizzlies have beaten and covered the last four times they've hosted the Spurs, including Games 3 and 4 of this series. Kawhi Leonard is a monster. But Marc Gasol and Mike Conley give the Grizzlies the second and third-best players on the court. Conley provides the Grizzlies a backcourt edge as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are past their prime. Memphis' role players step up better at home, too. The Spurs were impressive in Game 5. But that was in San Antonio and the Spurs shot 52.5 percent from the floor, hit 14 of their 28 3-pointers and shot nearly 82 percent from the foul line. I don't see that happening in Memphis. The Grizzlies ranked third in fewest points allowed per game and also were third in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season.
04-27-17	Penguins +132 v. Capitals		3-2	Win	132	12 h 1 m	Show
This is a much anticipated series. The Capitals have much to prove. I'll fade them in this Game 1 taking a 'dog price with the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins. Pittsburgh has the better forward depth and the hotter goalie. The Capitals have some prolific goal scorers but they can't match Pittsburgh's one-two center punch of Sidney Crosby and Evegni Malkin. No team can. The Capitals have to prove they can get over the mental hurdle of beating Pittsburgh something they couldn't do last year. Washington endured a much tougher first-round series than Pittsburgh did. The Penguins did away with the Blue Jackets in five games, while the Capitals were hard-pressed to put down the upstart Maple Leafs. Toronto took Washington to six games with each matchup decided by one goal and five of the contests going into overtime. The Penguins can follow the well-coached Maple Leafs' blueprint of limiting the Capitals' time in the offensive zone while taking advantage of broken plays. They have the skaters who can do this well. Note this trend, too: The Penguins have won six of the past eight times when having three or more days off between games. The Capitals are 1-7 when in that situation.
04-27-17	Blue Jays v. Cardinals OVER 8		4-8	Win	100	7 h 11 m	Show
This is the first game of a doubleheader after Wednesday's game was rained out. Toronto edged St. Louis, 6-5, on Tuesday. I can see a combined 11 runs coming again especially with Matt Latos one of the scheduled pitchers for this day game. Latos has a 5.76 career ERA versus St. Louis - and that's before he became a washed-up journeyman expected to depart from Toronto's startihng rotation following this game with the imminent returns of J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez. Latos made his season debut in his last outing this past Friday and gave up four runs in five-plus innings. This was against the Angels at pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. Latos pitched even worse than his box score getting a couple of long ball outs that could have been homers at other ballparks. The Cardinals have got their bats going averaging 5.2 runs during their last five games. The Blue Jays broke out of their scoring slump averaging five runs during their last five games. They draw Carlos Martinez in this matchup. Martinez hasn't been sharp since opening day having had three consecutive disappointing starts. Martinez couldn't reach the seventh inning during any of his last three starts. During this three-game span, he's allowed 17 hits and 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings. Martinez has been merely average at home career-wise, too, with a 15-14 record and 3.77 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen ranks 25th in ERA and St. Louis leads the league in errors.
04-26-17	Oilers v. Ducks -128		5-3	Loss	-128	17 h 59 m	Show
The Ducks are peaking and a bad matchup for the Oilers. Edmoton was able to take advantage of San Jose being the oldest team in the league in winning its first-round Stanley Cup matchup. The Sharks' style was more free-wheeling than physical. That's not the case with Anaheim - and that's to Edmonton's disadvantage. I see the Oilers having trouble in dealing with the Ducks' more methodical, physical style. Anaheim also has several players who can contain and get under the skin of Connor McDavid and the Oilers' other young offensive stars. Playing on the road only makes this problem worse for the Oilers. The Ducks are extremely tough at home winning 70 percent of their past 63 home games. They've also defeated the Oilers in nine of the last 11 games at home. Anaheim had an easier first-round series than Edmonton. The Ducks swept Calgary in four games never really being seriously challenged. The Ducks won the season series from the Oilers, too. As an added plus, the Ducks are expected to get back defenseman Cam Fowler from a knee injury. He had missed the Ducks' past two games.
04-26-17	Dodgers v. Giants +107		3-4	Win	107	14 h 10 m	Show
The Giants are banged-up, but the pitching matchup clearly is their favor making them worthy of being a home 'dog. Dodgers starter Alex Wood is a borderline rotation starter. He didn't look good in his last start giving up four runs and seven hits while failing to finish the fifth inning this past Friday at Arizona. Lifetime against the Giants, Wood is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA. LA is 0-5 in Wood's last five starts. By contrast, Johnny Cueto is an elite pitcher. He has a career 2.74 ERA versus the Dodgers in 13 starts, including going 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA against them last season. Cueto is on his normal four days rest. The Giants are 17-4 the past 21 times Cueto has pitched on four days rest.
04-26-17	Bulls +8 v. Celtics	Top	97-108	Loss	-110	16 h 23 m	Show
I'm not expecting Rajon Rondo to play in this Game 5. But I still like the Bulls to cover the number. Emotions and tensions have been raised in this series now that it's down to a two-out-of-three. Boston lacks the playoff experience and postseason record to close out teams let alone win by decent-sized margins such as this point spead. The Celtics are 2-5 SU and ATS in the playoffs under Brad Stevens. Their two victories occurred in overtime and by eight points, both against Atlanta. The Bulls, led by Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade, are 2-0 at TD Garden in the series. Boston has covered just one of its last nine home games. The Bulls, by contrast, have played well on the road covering eight of their last 10 away contests, including going 7-0 ATS the last seven times facing foes with a winning home mark. Chicago also is 7-1 ATS in its next game following a loss where the Celtics are 8-18 ATS after winning in their previous game. Stevens adjusted well following the Bulls winning the first two games of the series. His major change was going with a smaller lineup inserting Gerald Green into the starting five. The Celtics held the Bulls to a combined 40.1 percent shooting from the floor in evening the series by winning the last two games in Chicago. The Bulls now have had two games to get used to Boston's new lineup and not having Rondo to run their offense. The Bulls aren't a great shooting team, but they still shot 44.4 percent from the floor during the season.
04-26-17	Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11.5	Top	11-4	Loss	-120	12 h 23 m	Show
It's easy to think a lot of runs are going to be scored here after the Nationals' 15-12 win Tuesday. Certainly the oddsmaker does setting such a high total. I understand this game is at Coors Field and the Rockies are swinging hot bats. Trea Turner is back for Washington making the Nationals' lineup more dangerous. But it takes a lot to go over this high of a total - and I don't see it happening here. Let's start with the starters: Tanner Roark versus Tyler Chatwood. Neither are elite pitchers. Both, however, are underrated. Roarke especially has proven solid the past couple of seasons. The under has cashed only twice in Roark's past 12 starts. The Rockies haven't faced Roark in two years having just seen him for one inning of relief in 2015. Chatwood has made only one start against the Nationals and that was back in 2013. So the hitters aren't going to be familar with the two starting pitchers. The Rockies' bullpen entered this series with the lowest ERA in the majors. Neither closer Greg Holland, nor any of Colorado's two best set-up relievers, pitched last night. There is a weather factor, too, that favors an under. The forecast is for temperatures in the mid-to-low 50's, which feels colder in Denver, and for the wind to be blowing in at 8-to-10 mph. The slated home plate umpire is Marty Foster, who has an under bias. Since 2012, the under has cashed 56 percent of the time Foster has been behind the plate.
04-25-17	Royals -130 v. White Sox		5-10	Loss	-130	8 h 56 m	Show
The Royals are in a scoring slump. But the huge starting pitching advantage and team defense make the Royals a worthy investment. The price is too low with Danny Duffy going against Dylan Covey. Since moving into the starting rotation last season, Duffy has been one of the better pitchers in the league going 14-3 with a 3.23 ERA. Duffy has been outstanding this season with a 1.32 ERA giving up four runs in four starts. The White Sox, despite their big offensive showing last night, aren't much better offensively than Kansas City and have a much worse starter going. Covey isn't ready for the big leagues. That's obvious after his first two starts where he's allowed five walks and three homers with only two strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .357 against him. Covery has a 7.84 ERA.
04-25-17	Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets	Top	99-105	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
Have to believe the Thunder can keep this game close trying to stave off elimination after having the Rockets edge them out in Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 games. Only once during their last 13 games have the Rockets won by more than seven points. Russell Westbrook is playing at the top of his game, while James Harden is dealing with an ankle injury. Harden was held to 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor on Sunday. He missed all seven of his 3-point shots. The Rockets, though, were bailed out by 34-year-old Nene, who scored 28 points on 12-of-12 shooting from the field. The Thunder's role players are due to play much better especially against such a vulnerable defense as the Rockets. Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Andre Roberson are all better than they've show so far in the series.
04-24-17	Royals -105 v. White Sox		1-12	Loss	-105	13 h 45 m	Show
Look way under the radar screen and you'll find Jason Vargas, who is on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. Vargas is 3-0 in his three starts this season with a 0.44 ERA giving up one earned run in 20 2/3 innings. He hasn't been scored upon during his past two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Both teams have weak offenses. But the Royals get to work against Miguel Gonzalez while the White Sox must try to solve Vargas while ranking 28th in runs and homers. Chicago has scored one run or fewer in three of its last four games. Gonzalez is 1-5 with a 4.36 ERA in his career versus the Royals. The Royals have dominated the White Sox in Chicago winning 27 of the past 37 times. Kansas City will have back Lorezno Cain, who was rested on Sunday, and also could get back catcher Salvador Perez, who has been dealing with a stiff neck.
04-24-17	Twins v. Rangers -131	Top	3-2	Loss	-131	13 h 19 m	Show
So much for the Twins. After opening the season with four straight wins, the Twins are back to being as bad as ever. Minnesota has lost six of its last seven and is heading to the road with little confidence and low spirits following a 2-7 homestand during the last 10 days. Minnesota is 8-21 (27 percent) in its past 29 away contests. Texas, on the other hand, is playing well winning six of its last seven at home. Matt Bush has shored up the Rangers' closer role and Martin Perez is pitching at home here where he historically has been very effective. Perez is 12-5 lifetime with a 3.36 ERA in 26 starts at Arlington. The Twins haven't seen him since 2012. Perez has pitched exceptionally well in three of his four starts this season. Twins hitters who have faced Perez are a combined six-for-34 against him. Another reason to fade Minnesota is starting pitcher Phil Hughes, who looks washed-up. Hughes has allowed 10 runs - eight earned - in his last two starts spanning 10 innings while giving up 13 hits and three walks during this span. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. His ERA last season was 5.95.
04-24-17	Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks	Top	101-111	Loss	-107	11 h 43 m	Show
The Wizards are the better team and John Wall is the best player on the floor. The major question, though, is Washington mature enough to win on Atlanta's home court? I believe they are. The Wizards have a huge backcourt edge with Wall, who is averaging 31 points and 10 assists in the series, and Bradley Beal. They have helped force the Hawks to commit 51 turnovers so far in the series. The Hawks came back to soundly beat Washington, 116-98, at home in Game 3. But now the Wizards will be much better prepared. I see the Wizards having the poise to match the Hawks' intensity, which was at its peak in Game 3.
04-24-17	Cubs -119 v. Pirates		14-3	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
The Pirates have dropped 21 of their last 31 home games and are drawing the Cubs in a foul mood after Chicago lost to Cincinnati on Sunday. The Cubs have by far the superior offense. This is especially so with Anthony Rizzo heating up and the Pirates missing two of their key offensive weapons with Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang not on the team. Marte's absence really weakens the Pirates' both offensively and defensively. Brett Anderson has looked good for the Cubs backed by a strong defensive infield. Pirates starter Chad Kuhl was 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs last season during his rookie year. I much prefer the Cubs' bullpen, too.
04-23-17	Nationals -145 v. Mets		6-3	Win	100	14 h 23 m	Show
This is still a bargain even at this price range. The Nationals should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite against the Mets given the pitching matchup, current form of both teams and New York's multiple injuries. Washington has won six in a row. The Mets are 1-7 in their last eight while averaging 2.8 runs during this span. The Mets are down a number of key injured players, including Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores. New York's patchwork lineup is going to have to deal with Max Scherzer, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who is off to a great start with a 1.37 ERA. Scherzer has a lifetime ERA of 1.83 in 11 appearances against the Mets. Mets starter Zach Wheeler is making the transition from being sidelined the past two seasons. He has a 5.52 ERA this season and is 2-6 lifetime versus the Nationals with a 5.09 ERA. This is a mismatch of epic porportions and is priced way too low.
04-23-17	Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder	Top	113-109	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
After losing the first two games in Houston, Oklahoma City needed to step up at home in Game 3. The Thunder did that - but barely winning 115-113 on Friday. Look for the superior team - Houston - to play better in this Game 4 and get the victory. The Rockets should play with more of a sense of urgency especially early after letting the Thunder build too big of a lead. Houston also is due to shoot better from 3-point range after hitting only 10 of 35 in Game 3 for 28.5 percent. The Rockets shot 35.7 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season. Russell Westbrook is a Triple Double machine. He's going to get his numbers. But James Harden is just as good and the Rockets have the better scoring role players with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams. I don't envision Taj Gibson having another monster performance like he did for Oklahoma City on Friday. The Rockets have dominated the Thunder from a pointspread perspective going 11-2 ATS during the past 13 meetings, including 6-0 ATS during the past six at Oklahoma City.
04-23-17	Senators +150 v. Bruins		3-2	Win	150	7 h 21 m	Show
This is a nice price to take on an underdog that is as good, if not better, than the home team. Given all the Bruins' defensive injuries, I would say the Senators are the superior team. The Bruins also could be without center David Krejci, who suffered a lower body injury in Game 5. Boston was fortunate to stave off elimination in Game 5 winning in double overtime. That cut Ottawa's lead to 3-2 in the series. The Bruins have never come from 3-1 down to win a series during their long history. Despite the Game 5 loss, the Senators have had the Bruins' number winning nine of the past 11 times. This includes five consecutive victories in Boston.
04-23-17	Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5		0-8	Win	100	9 h 32 m	Show
The battered Giants aren't hitting well enough to justify this high of a total even at Coors Field. San Francisco is barely averaging two runs a game during its last six games scoring 13 times during this span. The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson out. Hunter Pencer didn't start yesterday because of a sore knee. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has been terrible in his first three starts this season. The right-handed Samardzija, though, is better than he has shown and does have a good history versus the Rockies with a 2.55 ERA in 12 appearances, including eight starts. The under has cashed 11 of the last 14 times the Rockies have faced a righty starter at home. Intriguing southpaw Kyle Freeland gets the call for Colorado. The under has cashed nine of the last 12 times the Giants have gone against a lefty on the road. There's only a slight wind and that will be blowing in. Both teams have solid closers, too.
04-23-17	Tigers -101 v. Twins		13-4	Win	100	8 h 31 m	Show
The Twins shouldn't be favored in a pitching matchup of Michael Fulmer versus Kyle Gibson even at home and with the Tigers minus Miguel Cabrera. I lost hope on Gibson two years ago. His command has gotten worse since then and he's having another bad season this year with a 6.91 ERA. This is after compiling a 5.07 ERA last season. Fulmer, on the other hand, is following up on his excellent 2016 season. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts. The Twins have lost 41 of the past 58 times versus a right- handed starter. The Tigers are 20-7 in Fulmer's last 27 starts for a winning percentage of 74 percent.
04-22-17	Oilers +130 v. Sharks		3-1	Win	130	14 h 7 m	Show
San Jose is the oldest team in the NHL and it showed during its overtime loss to the Oilers two days ago. The Oilers' key players are all much younger than San Jose's and so have the fresher legs. The Sharks played into mid-June last spring. San Jose's best players also competed in the World Cup of Hockey. Only one other team logged more travel miles than the Sharks during the season. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Paul Martin are all at least 36 years old. Joe Pavelski and Ben Burns are 32. The Sharks have a lot of wear and tear. It's going to be tough for the Sharks to regain their momentum and energy after such a mentally-draining overtime loss. It would be one thing if I regarded San Jose as the superior team. But I don't. Edmonton is the better team. The Oilers have won 15 of their last 19 games. They have defeated the Sharks six of the past eight times, too. This is Edmonton's time. The Sharks had their shot last season. Now their window has closed.
04-22-17	Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +113		5-11	Win	113	7 h 43 m	Show
Arizona is 7-1 at home while the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. The Diamondbacks have southpaw Robbie Ray going. The Dodgers struggle versus lefties especially on the road where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times versus them. The 25-year-old Ray is coming into his own. He has 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .161 against him, which is the second-lowest in the NL. Ray has a 2.80 lifetime ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is off to a slow start with a 7.07 ERA. He hasn't been able to get to the sixth inning during any of his three starts. He's facing a better offense, too, than the Dodgers have.
04-22-17	Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	108-110	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
If Golden State isn't the best team in the NBA than San Antonio is. The Spurs showed their dominance during the first two games of the series winning at home by 29 and 14 points, respectively. On Thursday, the teams played Game 3. Everything set up for the Grizzlies in that matchup. The Grizzlies were playing at home for the first time, David Fizdale had set up the officials by bitterly complaining after Game 2 and the Grizzlies' Big Three of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph all stepped up. The Grizzlies also got "A" type performances from their young role players. Game 3 was Memphis' time to win and the Grizzlies did just that, 105-94. Gregg Popovich, who I have long regarded as the best coach in basketball, may have hoisted the white flag in that game in order to set up a victory in this Game 4. A disgusted Popovich pulled all five of his starters less than a minute into the second half with his team trailing by nine points. All of this leads me to strongly believe the prideful and superior Spurs are going to step up here. If they do, the Spurs will win handily even if the Grizzlies can somehow conjure up a second straight "A" game performance, which I don't see happening. Memphis is 1-5 ATS following a victory, didn't play well down the stretch losing four of their last five regular-season games and has lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games to the Spurs.
04-21-17	Marlins -112 v. Padres		3-5	Loss	-112	10 h 28 m	Show
The Marlins are a better team than the Padres and I like promising Adam Conley more than journeyman Trevor Cahill when it comes to starting pitchers. The Marlins have won in four of Conley's last five road starts. Miami also has the superior bullpen and defense. Cahill was pitching in relief last season. I'm not sold on him reverting back to being a starter. He's always vulnerable to giving up a big inning. He has a 4.66 career ERA versus the Marlins. The Marlins have been on the West Coast for three days now so they are acclimitated to the time change. San Diego rarely follows up a victory with another win. The Padres are 9-25 after winning in their previous game.
04-21-17	Clippers -110 v. Jazz		111-106	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
My handicap here can be summed up this way: The Clippers are the superior team and the Jazz won't have star center Rudy Gobert. The Jazz managed to ambush the Clippers in Game 1 with Gobert missing nearly the entire game. But the Clippers regrouped and took advantage of Gobert's absence to win Game 2 by eight points. Both DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin had big games with the Jazz minus Gobert. Griffin scored 24 points while Jordan made 9 of 11 shots from the field and pulled down 15 rebounds. The Clippers outscored the Jazz by 22 points in the paint and outrebounded them by eight. Chris Paul has been dominant at point guard. If the Clippers get anything from streak shooters J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford - who are a combined 12 for 37 in the series from the floor - they could win handily.
04-21-17	Bruins v. Senators -102	Top	3-2	Loss	-102	16 h 29 m	Show
The games certainly have been close, bu the Senators have had the Bruins' number all season. Ottawa is 7-1 versus Boston this season. The Senators have won three in a row against Boston after dropping the first one in this series and I see them closing out Boston at home today. The Bruins have lost six of their last seven at Ottawa and their blue line is decimated with injuries. Rookie Charlie McAvoy, who hadn't played in the NHL during the regular season, led all Boston players with 25:03 minutes of ice team in the last game. The Bruins have been missing defensemen Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid and Brandon Carlo. None are expected to play today. Ottawa has had good rhythm when playing on one day's rest winning 20 of the past 28 times in that situation. The Bruins were shut out on Wednesday. David Pastrnak, who scored 34 goals during the regular season, has been a bust with just one goal and that came on a 5-on-3 advantage. He's had only two shots on net. Boston's confidence can't be good down 3-1 in the series knowing its never won a series before when down by that margin.
04-20-17	Sharks v. Oilers -128		3-4	Win	100	12 h 4 m	Show
I was convinced the Oilers were the better team entering this series and I still believe that. But the Oilers need to play smarter. Certainly they will play with more passion returning home after an embarrassing 7-0 road loss to San Jose. The Oilers shouldn't be nervous like they were at home in Game 1. They also should play with more discipline being short-handed more than any team in the playoffs so far. There are a lot of other due factors here that should add up such as the Oilers winning more faceoffs. San Jose is not a good faceoff team. Connor McDavid hasn't scored a point in two straight games. The last time that happened was Jan. 31 and Feb. 2. The Oilers have too much offense from other players if the Sharks continue to key and go after McDavid. Perhaps it's a leap of faith to envision all this happening. But it should be noted the Sharks have lost seven of their last nine road games, while the Oilers have won 10 of their past 11 home games.
04-20-17	Cardinals -111 v. Brewers	Top	5-7	Loss	-111	9 h 52 m	Show
This is a cheap price to get a pitcher I consider elite in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has been wilder this season and getting less ground ball outs than usual, but he's among the National League leaders in strikeouts. The Brewers are a good matchup for him because they are a free-swinging tean that strikes out a lot. The Cardinals have won 19 of Martinez's last 27 road starts. I also like St. Louis' bullpen better than the Brewers' pen especially the closer. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies figured to regress this season and that's been the case. Davies isn't a hard thrower so he needs good control. Yet already he has walked eight in 14 1/3 innings after only giving up 38 bases on balls in 163 1/3 innings last season. His ERA is a fat 8.79.
04-20-17	Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5	Top	77-104	Win	100	14 h 47 m	Show
There were only 180 points scored in Game 1 of this series won by the Bucks, 97-83. But there were 206 points scored in Game 2, won by the Raptors, 106-100. So, what to make of this matchup with the teams going to Milwaukee now for Game 3? I see the final score looking far more like Game 1 so I'm on the Under. The Bucks have averaged just 91.7 points during their last seven games. That would rank last a good six points away from the next lowest-scoring team if computed during the entire season. The Raptors are givng up just 90.7 points during their last seven road games. The under has cashed in 16 of Toronto's past 21 road games. The Raptors are an underrated defensive team after trading for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. A key is the Raptors found a way to slow down superstar Giannis Anteokounmpo. They held him to 9-of-24 shooting from the floor in Game 2. Toronto and Milwaukee combined to make 25 of 52 3-point shots in Game 2 for an amazing 48 percent from beyond the arc. Toronto made 36.3 percent of its 3-pointers during the regular season while the Bucks converted 37 percent of their 3-point shots. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bucks have a bad offensive game due to nerves and the pressure of playing their first playoff game at home. Bucks coach Jason Kidd has been stressing defense. If you discount a meaningless regular season road finale against the Celtics in which their best players sat out, the Bucks are surrendering only 87.5 points in their last four games. The under is 16-4-1 the past 21 times an oponent has scored triple digits on the Bucks in the previous game. Kidd is showing his commitment to defense by giving more minutes to Matthew Dellavedova and Thon Maker at the expense of Tony Snell and Greg Monroe. Dellavedova has the worst shooting percentage of any of the regular rotation players for Milwaukee during the playoffs while Maker is strictly a defensive type player with limited offensive skills. The two teams have a strong under bias, too, having gone below the total in nine of their last 12 meetings.
04-20-17	Cavs v. Pacers +2.5		119-114	Loss	-105	13 h 33 m	Show
The Cavaliers head into Indiana up 2-0 in the series. Cleveland won its two home games by an average of 3.5 points. The Pacers are a far better team at Bankers Life Fieldhouse going 29-13. The Cavaliers have a losing road record. They have a bad history at Indiana, too, going 1-6-1 ATS during their last eight visits. From a pointspread perspective, the Pacers have dominated this series going 10--2-1 ATS. Fiery Paul George can match LeBron James with his will to win. George is averaging 30.5 points, seven assists and five 3-points in the series. Myles Turner is due to play much better, which should happen at home. The Pacers have been excellent when having two days between games covering 21 of the last 27 times in that situation. This really is the Pacers' season. The Cavaliers can't be trusted in this spot with their lack of defense and poor road record.
04-19-17	Wild v. Blues OVER 5		2-0	Loss	-100	9 h 14 m	Show
Wild at Blues Over 5 plus $1.05 Jake Allen has been on fire and the Blues have won the first three games of this series. All three games have gone under with no more than four goals scored in any of the games. So why go Over 5 now? Because the Wild are going to let everything hang out here in order to avoid the sweep. They have no choice. It's not like Minnesota can't score goals. The Wild were the No. 2 scoring team in the league during the regular season. The Blues are going to match the Wild's aggressiveness and attack-mode being home and with a chance to end the series. If the Wild happen to be down a goal or two late in the third period, there's no doubt they will pull their goalie earlier than usual.
04-19-17	Thunder +8 v. Rockets	Top	111-115	Win	100	12 h 2 m	Show
It's rare to see the Thunder getting this many points. But that's what happens after the Rockets destroyed the Thunder, 118-87, in Sunday's Game 1. I don't see a repeat. James Harden is a strong MVP candidate and Houston has the No. 2 ranked offense. But their defense isn't nearly as good as it looked in Game 1. Not only did Russell Westbrook have a rare off-game, missing 17 of 23 shots from the floor while committing nine turnovers, but shooting guard Victor Oladipo made only one of 12 shots from the floor. Oklahoma City's front line also played poorly losing the rebound battle by 15 boards. I see the prideful Westbrook and Oklahoma City bouncing back. The Thunder's underrated frontcourt shouldn't get outrebounded by the Rockets and Westbrook is due some calls in his personal battle with Harden, who schooled him in the opener of the series. Oklahoma City improved its road play down the stretch winning seven of its last nine regular season away contests while going 6-3 ATS. The Thunder also have covered five of the last six times when playing on two days rest. Until shellacking the Thunder, the Rockets had failed to cover in their last nine games.
04-19-17	Orioles -103 v. Reds		2-0	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
There's a class difference between these two teams. Yet the game is priced competitively because Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for Baltimore, the Reds are home and starting Amir Garrett, who has looked good in the early going. The 33-year-old Jimenez can give the Reds problems, though, with his assortment of pitches and veteran savvy especially since many of the young Cincinnati hitters don't have experience with him. Jimenez had success against the Reds when he was in the National League going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts. It's easy to rip Jimenez, but Baltimore is 7-1 in his last eight starts. As far as the Reds being home, I love it that the Orioles get to hit in Great American Ball Park. The Orioles are an elite power-hitting team and Great American Ball Park is an elite hitter's park especially for home run hitters. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 interleague games versus a right-handed starter and are 5-11 during their past 16 home interleague games. Garrett, a 24-year-old rookie, has been a pleasant surprise during his first two big league starts. Those outings though were against the Cardinals, who have yet to start hitting, and the Pirates, who rank 26th in runs scored. The Orioles now have a couple games of film on Garrett and are a step up for him. Wednesday Free Play Giants at Royals Under 8 If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today.
04-18-17	Jazz v. Clippers OVER 195.5	Top	91-99	Loss	-110	16 h 15 m	Show
This total is lower than the closing 198 from Game 1. There were 192 points in that opening matchup won by the Jazz, 97-95. I understand why the oddsmaker adjusted this Game 2 total lower than in Game 1. Early activity in the marketplace has been to the under making the total even lower. Both the oddsmaker and marketplace are over compensating. They are each overreacting to Game 1. The Clippers haven't had a total this low since Christmas Day when they played Dallas, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. Prior to Saturday's opener, the Jazz had scored 103 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Clippers had scored at least 112 points in six of their previous seven games. The Jazz are expecting the Clippers to play very aggressive this game. I agree. That starts with Chris Paul, who very much remains an elite point guard. On paper, Paul had a good Game 1 with 25 points and 11 assists. But he still could have been more aggressive. The Clippers' point total was really hurt by J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford missing 12 of 19 shots from the floor and six of seven shots from 3-point range. They are much better scorers than that. Utah finished as the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. A big reason for that was center Rudy Gobert. He's a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league in blocked shots and finishing fourth in rebounding. Gobert, though, is out with a hyperextended knee. Gobert's absence is going to open the middle for Paul to penetrate. The Clippers are going to get their points here playing at home down 0-1 in the series. The question is can Utah put up its share of points to get this total over? I believe they will. Point guard George Hill is finally healthy. He shot well in Game 1 making 7 of 13 shots from the floor. The Jazz's second best point guard is Raul Neto. He's been out for more than a week due to a sprained ankle. But he said he's ready to play today. The Jazz have to play more small ball minus Gobert. That means a quicker pace and more minutes for Derrick Favors, who made 7 of 10 shots from the field in Game 1, and veteran Joe Johnson. Johnson still can score as evidenced by his 9 of 14 shooting from the floor in Game 1, but his defense has slipped. So he's good for the over.
04-18-17	Diamondbacks -116 v. Padres		11-2	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the superior team with the superior starter going. Shelby Miller is showing signs of having a big bounce back season with the velocity on his fastball up. Miller is far more talented than his numbers showed from last season. Jarred Cosart, the Padres starter, on the other hand is who he is. And that's a borderline major league who doesn't get many strikeouts and walks too many batters. He's not helped by having perhaps the weakest team in baseball behind him. This isn't a good spot either for the Padres being their first home game following a seven-game road trip that finished Sunday in Atlanta.
04-18-17	Rangers -126 v. A's		2-4	Loss	-126	12 h 51 m	Show
I've seen enough of Yu Darvish to believe he's back to being an elite pitcher. The Rangers' bullpen will be much better now that Matt Bush has been inserted into the closer role with Sam Dyson going on the DL. Bush is the Rangers' best reliever in my view. The A's have lost four in a row. They just lost power-hitting shorstop Marcus Semien for a couple of months. Oakland is hoping Andrew Triggs can end their losing streak. Triggs hasn't allowed an earned run in 11 2/3 innings this season spanning two outings. Triggs is a back end of the rotation type starter - if that - and is due for regression. He's faced 47 batters and has recorded just four strikeouts. The Rangers saw him twice last season when he was a rookie so they'll know what to expect.
04-18-17	Penguins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5		4-5	Win	100	5 h 59 m	Show
The Penguins have scored three or more goals in all but one of their last nine games. This includes the first three games of this series. The Penguins are averaging four goals per game in the series and have talked about coming out even more aggressively in order to sweep the Blue Jackets. Columbus got its attack rolling in Game 3 scoring four goals. The Blue Jackets will be going all out to keep from being swept. This would include pulling their goalie earlier than usual if trailing late in the game. The Penguins have some vulnerabilities defensively due to injuries. The over has cashed 14 of the past 19 times these two teams have played in Columbus.
04-18-17	Canadiens v. Rangers +100		1-2	Win	100	10 h 41 m	Show
If it weren't for a goal by Tomas Plekanec with 17 seconds left in Game 2, the Canadiens might be looking at playoff elimination.here. Instead, Montreal is up 2-1 in the series having won two in a row. I understand the Rangers have trouble winning playoff games at home. But this is a fair price to back the home Rangers, whose main core of players are due to perform better. The Rangers and Canadiens play similar styles relying on speed, defense and the transition game. The Canadiens' edge is goalie Carey Price. However, Henrik Lundqvist is playing at just as high level as Price. It's not his fault the Rangers are down 2-1 in the series. It's step up time for Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Hayes and Mike Zuccarello. I see them getting the job down at home in this pivotal matchup.
04-17-17	Marlins v. Mariners -127	Top	1-6	Win	100	17 h 37 m	Show
Bad spot, below average starting pitcher and terrible track record make the Marlins a strong fade today. Miami is fat and happy after beating the Mets for a third consecutive time on Sunday following a walk-off home run by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first in the majors. That concluded a 4-2 homestand for Miami. Now, though, the Marlins travel cross-country across three time zones to play the Mariners in Seattle. The last time the Marlins played at Safeco Field was 2011. The Marlins have lost 20 of their last 27 interleague road games. This is their longest trip. The Mariners will be playing their seventh consecutive home game. They are 4-2 in their last six games, including three victories in a row. So they are playing well, too. The pitching matchup is Tom Koehler versus lefty Ariel Miranda. Koehler is an inning-eating, fifth-starter type, who is average at best when pitching at Marlins Park and below adequate when pitching on the road. The 30-year-old Koehler is 16-25 with a 4.49 ERA career road mark. Koehler's has a 4.50 ERA in 18 all-time interleague starts. The Marlins have lost in nine of Koehler's last 10 starts. The Marlins have never faced Miranda. Miami has lost eight of the past nine times when facing a southpaw in an interleague road game. Miranda's two starts this season have come against the Astros, one was decent the other bad. Now he steps down in class facing the Marlins, who have never seen Miranda. Miranda has a lifetime winning record with the Mariners, who have won four of his last five home starts.
04-17-17	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7		4-2	Loss	-115	10 h 50 m	Show
The Dodgers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating after Rich Hill had to leave yesterday because of a blister after having pitched just three innings. The Diamondbacks have one of the better offenses ranking fifth in runs scored. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for some regression after two strong games. A key for McCarthy is getting ahead on the count. The Diamondbacks are an aggressive bunch who will go after the first strike. The Dodgers should do their share of damage against Robbie Ray even though they struggle versus lefties. Ray is a top strikeout pitcher, but he walks too many batters and gives up too many homers.
04-17-17	Ducks v. Flames OVER 5		5-4	Win	100	9 h 19 m	Show
The teams have played twice now in the series and the Ducks have won each game, 3-2. Once again the total is 5. I say this time - with 0-2 Calgary now at home - there will be more than five goals scored. The Ducks' defensive depth is down with two regulars hurt. The Ducks have been propped up by brilliant goaltending from John Gibson and his .942 save percentage. I say he can't keep this up. I understand goalies can get hot during the Stanley Cup, but Gibson is not an elite goalie. Look for the Flames to play really agressive down 0-2 in the series. I see a wide open game. Only once has the under cashed during the Flames' past 11 home games. The over is 8-2, too, the past 10 times these two teams have played in Calgary.
04-16-17	Oilers +116 v. Sharks		1-0	Win	116	11 h 39 m	Show
While I respect San Jose, I consider Edmonton to be the superior team. The Oilers have led by two goals twice in the series, but only are 1-1 to show for it. However, the Oilers have the superior offense - especially with Joe Thornton still having yet to play for San Jose - and have the hotter goalie in Cam Talbot. The Sharks also can't match Connor McDavid. The Oilers have been playing excellent thockey going 13-3 in their last 16 games. The Sharks have dropped 10 of their last 14 games against Western Conference foes.
04-16-17	Rockies v. Giants -126		4-3	Loss	-126	8 h 48 m	Show
The Giants are dealing with injuries, but I like them to solve Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela at home. Senzatela is making his third start of the season - and been surprisingly effective. But the Giants have two games of film on him now. Senzatela wasn't impressive during spring training going 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA. The Rockies are not a good road team and have lost 14 of the past 19 times following a victory going back to last season. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a solid veteran with a 2.25 lifetime ERA versus the Rockies in 11 appearances, including seven starts.
04-16-17	Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5		109-121	Win	100	7 h 48 m	Show
I understand there is usually a feeling out process during the first game of a playoff series. But I still see this total as being short. Portland has adjusted to being without big man Jusuf Nurkic by going short playing without a center. Nurkic's status is questionable versus the Warriors. But I like the total to go over regardless if he plays or not because the Trail Blazers still are going to play small ball. Golden State, of course, is the ultimate small ball team so there's going to be an up-and-down pace. The Trail Blazers were the eighth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging nearly 108 points a game. They also were well below average defensively ranking 25th in scoring defense and 27th in defending 3-pointers. Golden State led the NBA in scoring and shooting percentage while also ranking third in 3-point shooting. If you discount a 99-point performance against Utah, the top defensive team in the league, the Warriors averaged 117 points in their last eight games. The Warriors enter this matchup with their top nine players healthy, a rarity for them. Kevin Durant has been back for three games now. The rust is off. Durant served notice he's back to his dominant scoring way by going for 29 points in 27 minutes during the Warriors' final regular season game. When they've had Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on the court at the same time, the Warriors have outscored foes by an average of 23.9 points per 100 possessions. This is a lineup the Trail Blazers can't slow down. The two teams also have a strong over bias when playing each other with the over cashing 18 of the past 24 times.
04-16-17	Angels v. Royals +100		0-1	Win	100	6 h 59 m	Show
The combination of the Angels not hitting while pitching Tyler Skaggs, puts me on the Royals. The Angels have lost four in row, averaging 2.2 runs during this span. Skaggs isn't going to be in the majors too much longer if he keeps pitching so bad. He's 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA, while giving up 13 hits - including three homers - five walks and a hit batter in just 10 1/3 innings. The Royals are playing better now and Ian Kennedy is an upgrade on Skaggs.
04-15-17	Predators v. Blackhawks -175		5-0	Loss	-175	12 h 38 m	Show
This is a higher price than I normally would lay, but I want the Blackhawks going for me here. The Blackhawks have won three Stanley Cups under Joel Quenneville. But getting off to a slow start has been a Blackhawks trademark under Quenneville as Chicago is 3-6 in Stanley Cup openers. Despite that Game 1 home loss, the Blackhawks still have defeated Nashville in nine of the last 11 games at home. Chicago also has won 72 percent of its last 57 home contests versus opponents who sport a losing road record.
04-15-17	Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5		4-3	Loss	-100	11 h 4 m	Show
The Capitals received their wake-up call in Game 1 falling behind by two goals before pulling out an overtime victory. The Capitals have beaten Toronto eight straight times at home. The Capitals not only are the vastly superior team, but have the necessary playoff experience the young Maple Leafs lack. Washington hasn't allowed more than two goals during its last six games. The Capitals' third-ranked offense certainly can take advantage of Toronto's 22nd-ranked defense to win by more than one goal especially with trailing teams prone to pull their goalie earlier than usual during Stanley Cup play.
04-15-17	Padres v. Braves +100		2-4	Win	100	6 h 13 m	Show
Despite getting to play three games at Coors Field, the Padres are averaging just 3.4 runs this season. I see their young lineup having problems facing knucleballer R.A. Dickey. Wil Myers and Erick Aybar are the only Padres players experienced facing Dickey and his knuckleball. They are a combined six-for36 against him. The Braves are basking in their new park. The Padres not only have to make the difficult adjustment to face a knuckleballer - a pitcher many of their players have yet to face - but also going from Coors to the humid conditions of Atlanta. Padres starter Clayton Richard has a 6.91 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta. The Padres have lost the past five times, too, facing the Braves.
04-15-17	Bucks v. Raptors -7	Top	97-83	Loss	-103	28 h 36 m	Show
Forget Cleveland and Boston. The best team in the Eastern Conference right now very well could be Toronto. The Bucks have been playing well, but their playoff inexperience can really hurt them in this opening game especially playing in Toronto. The Raptors have dominated the Bucks beating them seven of the last eight times with the lone loss coming when the Raptors were missing Kyle Lowery. The Raptors won 10 playoff games last season. They are better this season with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker added to the mix upgrading their defense. Lowery and DeRozan also enter the playoffs far less fatigued than last season due to missing time with injuries. Lowery missed 21 games during the second half of the season because of a wrist injury. Toronto finished the post All-Star break ranked in the top-five in defense and rebounding. No other team can make that distinction. By contrast, Milwaukee ranked 19th defensively and 24th in rebounding. The last time the Bucks won a playoff series was 2000-2001. The Raptors are 25-4 the past 29 times holding an opponent under 100 points. The Bucks finished the regular-season averaging just 88.2 points during their past five games.
04-14-17	Sharks v. Oilers OVER 5		0-2	Loss	-105	21 h 8 m	Show
The Sharks showed in Game 1 they aren't going to just let the upstart Oilers kick them to the curb. San Jose fired 39 shots from the second period on and defeated the Oilers, 3-2, in overtime with the total pushing. Only once in the last seven meetings between these two teams has the total gone under. All together, Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot faced 44 shots. The Oilers learned a big lesson in that Game 1 home loss while making their first Stanley Cup appearance in 11 years. Connor McDavid could manage just a single point in Game 1. I expect he and his linemates to do much better in Friday's Game 2. The Oilers only managed 17 shots at Sharks goalie Martin Jones. That's going to change. The Oilers were the eighth-highest scoring team in the league. They've scored three or more goals in nine of their last 11 games. The Sharks, though, are capable of scoring multiple goals, too, especially with Logan Couture returning to the ice after being out since March 25. His effectiveness should only increase as he gets less rusty. It's a plus, too, if Joe Thornton can play after missing Game 1 with a knee injury. Thomas Hertl did an outstanding job at center taking Thornton's place. It just adds to San Jose's scoring depth if Thornton returns.
04-14-17	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-7	Loss	-100	15 h 34 m	Show
The Diamondbacks and Zach Greinke are playing much better than they did last season. Arizona is 7-3 with a new found sense of confidence and optimism. Greinke is past his shoulder issues that plagued him last season. He's 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his two starts this season. Compare this to Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA after giving up four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Rockies during his last start. That outing was at Coors Field. Kershaw figures to be much better at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Against Arizona, though, Kershaw has been good but not dominant sporting a lifetime mark of 12-8 with a 2.75 ERA. The total is less than seven here so few runs are expected. Asking the Dodgers to win by more than a run is asking a lot especially when LA gets one fewer at bat being the home team. The Dodgers just flew in from Chicago where they lost, 4-0, to the Cubs on Thursday. This is their first home game in more than a week. The loss to the Cubs completed a six-game road trip. Discount a 10-run performance against the Rockies at Coors and the Dodgers have scored seven runs in their last five games. While the Dodgers were changing two time zones, the Diamondbacks have been resting. They were idle Thursday. The Diamondbacks rank No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. Just two years ago, Greinke finished second in the National League Cy Young voting while pitching for the Dodgers. Greinke certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team and Kershaw. Arizona has won 10 of Greinke's last 13 road starts. The Diamondbacks are the better offensive team, have their own stud pitcher going and are in a good spot taking on an opponent that just concluded a long road trip. Kershaw is again way overpriced. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Diamondbacks is good insurance.
04-14-17	Angels v. Royals -124		1-7	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
I'm not sure what the marketplace is thinking, but the number has come down far enough where I can now get involved with the Royals. Kansas City showed signs of getting straighten out on Thursday ending a long losing streak to the A's. Now the Royals have a strong pitching edge with Danny Duffy against J.C. Ramirez. Duffy isn't getting any marketplace love, but he had a strong half last season and is showing signs of coming into his own. Ramirez has a 5.14 ERA and is a journeyman reliever drawing a start in place of Garrett Richards. Ramirez couldn't even stick with the Reds last season. I don't like his stuff, nor his metrics.
04-14-17	Mets v. Marlins OVER 7		2-3	Loss	-120	8 h 54 m	Show
The offenses of these two teams have been on fire and the bullpens carry high fatigue ratings after Thursday's 9-8 16-inning Mets victory. Miami relievers threw 13 innings while New York's bullpen accounting for 11 1/3 innings in that game. The Mets lead the majors in homers and are fourth in runs scored. They are averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. The Marlins are fifth in the league in runs scored while averaging 6.1 runs during their last six games. Yoenis Cespedes has smacked five homers in the last three games. Marcell Ozuna has driven home 10 runs in his last three games. These are two of the hottest-hitting power-hitters in baseball. The total is so low because Noah Syndergaard is starting for the Mets. However, Edinson Volquez is getting the start for Miami. He's several rungs below Syndergaard. The fences also have been moved in at Marlins Park. It's still a pitcher's park, but not quite as much as before.
04-13-17	A's v. Royals -127		1-3	Win	100	10 h 51 m	Show
I understand it's risky to lay a price with a team that so far hasn't been playing well, which is the case here with the 2-6 Royals. But I don't see the A's sweeping the Royals in Kansas City especially with today's starting pitching matchup, which pits Jesse Hahn versus southpaw Jason Vargas. Hahn is a long innings reliever, No. 5 type starter, who couldn't crack Oakland's starting rotation out of spring training. But he'll get the start here - his first of the season - replacing Raul Alcantara. The A's likely made a mistake in giving Alcantara a starting rotation spot. But Hahn isn't much, if any, of an upgrade. The A's gave Hahn nine starts last season - and he posted a 6.02 ERA. The Royals' problem is putting up just eight runs when having had 52 base runners in scoring position. That's the worst mark in the majors and had largely contributed to Kansas City going 19 scoreless innings. But the Royals showed signs of breaking out of their slump scoring a combined three runs during the eighth and ninth innings last night. Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. It often can take two years for a pitcher to fully recover from that serious elbow surgery. I liked what I saw from Vargas in his opening start this season. He beat the Astros, 5-1, at Houston last Friday displaying excellent command and good velocity on his fastball. Vargas gave up one run in six innings allowing six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The A's have owned the Royals lately winning eight in a row against them. However, the Royals are 7-0 during Vargas' past seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Vargas has thrown two shutouts against Oakland and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA versus the A's. Oakland also has been terrible when facing lefties losing 22 of the past 30 times.
04-13-17	Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-100	16 h 52 m	Show
Expectations are high again for the Capitals entering the Stanley Cup, something they have failed to capture during this past decade despite winning seven division titles. I see the Capitals, 11-2-1 in their last 14 games, opening their first-round series with a victory against the Maple Leafs. So does the oddsmaker, who has made Washington better than a 2-to-1 favorite. I won't lay those odds instead taking a plus price on the puck line in the belief this game will be a blowout. Even it is tight, the Maple Leafs will be pulling their goalie earlier than usual if down by a goal late in the game thus increasing the chances of a multple goal winning game for Washington. This is just the third time the Maple Leafs have made the postseason since 2003-04. Toronto has some exciting young talent, but lacks the Captials' defense and playoff experience. Opening on the road makes it even more difficult for the Maple Leafs. Washington has won 76 percent of its past 78 home games, including going 32-7-2 this season. The Capitals have dominated the Maple Leafs winning seven of the last eight meetings. The Capitals had a down goal-scoring year from Alex Ovechkin - at least by his high standards - but still scored the third-most goals in the league. The Maple Leafs were fifth in goals scored, but are not used to the increased tight-checking that goes on in the playoffs. The Capitals also possess a huge edge in the nets with Braden Holtby, who had a career-best 2.07 GAA while leading the NHL with nine shutouts.
04-13-17	Dodgers v. Cubs -120		0-4	Win	100	2 h 23 m	Show
I'm a fan of lefty Brett Anderson, especially when he's healthy and pitching for a great team like he is now backed by an outstanding defensive infield. The Dodgers struggle versus southpaws. They also have injuries. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be making his second start coming back from serious arm woes. He's not ready to go deep into games. The price is low enough to back the superior, healthy team with the pitching edge.
04-12-17	Astros -109 v. Mariners		10-5	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Seattle has problems. That's evident by the Mariners' 2-7 start. Shortstop Jean Segura is on the DL and the team isn't hitting ranking 28th in batting. I don't see things improving for the Mariners in this game, not with a pitching matchup of Mike Fiers versus Yovani Gallardo. Fiers posted a 1.98 ERA during spring training and was sharp in his regular season debut holding Kansas City to one earned run in six innings. He hasn't allowed more than three walks in a game for the past 35 starts. Fiers pitched once last year at Safeco Field and shut out the Mariners pitching six innings. Gallardo is a shot pitcher, far removed from his All-Star days of seven years ago. Gallardo has lost a lot on his fastball. He posted a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last season in 23 starts and wasn't impressive during spring training with an 0-2 mark and 7.47 ERA in five outings.
04-12-17	Spurs +4 v. Jazz	Top	97-101	Push	0	9 h 16 m	Show
Gregg Popovich said he won't be resting players against Utah tonight. I take Popovich at his word especially since the Spurs are 1-3 in their last four games. Popovich doesn't want his team entering the playoffs flat plus the postseason won't start for a few more days so there's a rust factor he wants to avoid. So expect a strong effort from the Spurs. It's a bonus they are getting this many points. Utah knows it's not going to overtake the Clippers to earn the fourth-seed in the West and get first-round home-court advantage. Not when the Clippers are 15 1/2-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. Either way, the Jazz will be meeting the Clippers in the first-round of the playoffs. The Jazz have bigger priorities. They need to get the rust of point guard George Hill, who played on Monday against the Warriors after missing six games with a strained right groin. The Jazz have to get three starters - Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood - all healthy along with backup point guard Raul Neto. All of them missed Utah's last game. It's not a given they all will play against the Spurs. Hayward would be especially missed being the Jazz's top offensive player. The Jazz have a terrible track record, too, versus Western Conference foes going 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times facing them.
04-12-17	Bucks +14 v. Celtics		94-112	Loss	-105	8 h 14 m	Show
The Celtics need to win this game to clinch home-court advantage for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks are going to make it easy for them by resting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell. The Bucks are doing this because they are locked into the No. 6 seed and will meet Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. The pointspread has been adjusted to reflect this situation. It's my view the spread is too out of whack in favor of Boston. It's one thing for Boston to win. It's another for the Celtics to cover an overinflated spread, something they've had problems doing. Only once in their last 13 games have the Celtics won by more than 10 points. The Nets hung in against Boston two nights ago on the road losing by nine points. The combination of the Bucks' remaining players being as good as Brooklyn's and the Celtics not playing that well make me believe Milwaukee will cover this number. The Celtics can't help but be overconfident in this spot knowing who the Bucks are sitting out. If you discount holding the disjointed Knicks to 94 points, the Celtics are giving up an average of 112.8 points in their last eight games. This is Boston's fifth game in eight days. So the backdoor will be fully open if the Celtics should open a big lead. The Celtics have covered only two of their last nine games, too. The Bucks haven't allowed more than 82 points during their last two games. They've split two games with Boston this season with the outcomes being decided by one point in overtime and by three points. So that has been a very tight series. The obvious question is how wounded will the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo and Middleton, their two best players? The Bucks will be impacted eough where they have no shot of winning the game straight-up. However, star rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned from a back injury. He's Milwaukee's third-best player. The Bucks also have their fourth-best player in reserve Greg Monroe. Mirza Teletovic and Michael Beasley, who has had a surprisingly decent season, will play. So the Bucks aren't desolute.
04-12-17	Blue Jackets v. Penguins UNDER 5.5	Top	1-3	Win	100	29 h 55 m	Show
I see both teams playing tight here with a lot of intensity and physical play. The Blue Jackets enter the playoffs on a bad 1-6 run. They are averaging less than two goals per game during their last 10 games. Only one of the Blue Jackets' last eight away games went above the total. Columbus can't let Sidney Crosby beat them and that's where Brandon Dubinsky comes in. Dubinsky is a physical center, who has a history of bothering Crosby, the NHL's top goal scorer this season. Both teams have solid goalies with Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Muray, who was particularly good at home for Pittsburgh going 17-5. The teams just met a eight days ago in Pittsburgh with Murray in net and the Penguins won, 4-1. Wednesday Free Play Bruins minus $1.20 at Senators What does it say when the Bruins are favored in this Game 1 despite being on the road and losing all four regular-season meetings to the Senators? It tells us the oddsmaker believes Boston is the superior team. I agree. The Bruins are the more experienced playoff team, have the better goalie in Tukka Rask over Craig Anderson and hold huge edges in special teams. The Bruins are the top penalty-killing unit in the NHL. They also ranked seventh in power play scoring percentage. Ottawa rates 22nd in penalty killing and 23rd in power play scoring percentage. Boston is better, too, offensively. Brad Marchand and David Pastmak are the two best goal scorers in the game. The Senators were held to just 28 goals during their last 15 games. The Bruins are much better since Bruce Cassidy took over going 20-8-1 since then. Yes, Ottawa did go 4-0 versus the Bruins in the regular season but each of those games could have gone either way. Now, when the pressure really is on, I see the Bruins prevailing.
04-11-17	Reds v. Pirates OVER 8		6-2	Push	0	10 h 2 m	Show
These teams opened their series Monday with the Reds winning, 7-1. Both bullpens had to go long innings in the game. Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow couldn't make it out of the second inning while Reds starter Brandon Finnegan couldn't survive the third inning. Neither bullpen is upper echelon especially the Reds. And both carry high fatigue ratings. I do like Pirates starter Jameson Taillon. But the Reds are going with Rookie Davis, who will be making his second big league start. He got shelled in his debut this past Thursday giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in three innings versus the Phillies. Davis' ERA is 12.00. The Reds have scored four or more runs in four of their last five games, including seven or more runs in three of their last five. The Pirates had scored 17 runs during their three previous games until Monday's game. Weather-wise there's an 8-to-10 mph wind blowing out to left. There's also a possibility of rain, which could mean more extended bullpen innings. One trend to note involving scheduled home plate Mike DiMuro. The over has cashed in 10 of his last 12 games behind the plate.
04-11-17	Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 212.5	Top	109-91	Loss	-110	17 h 22 m	Show
This is a matchup of the No. 3 scoring team, Denver, versus the lowest-scoring team, Dallas. The Nuggets average 111.8 points, third-best in the league. The Mavericks score just 98 points per game. So why a play on the Over when on paper this total looks to be lined correctly? If we go inside the numbers and look into the setting for this matchup it becomes clear the Over has a very good chance of coming in. The spot is this: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. So this becomes a no-pressure game that should have a loose, offensive-feel to it. The Mavericks are going with a lot of young, seldom-used players now. They have fresh legs, important this late in the season. But Dallas also will have back its leading scorer, Harrison Barnes. He rested during the Mavericks' last game, but will play here. Barnes averages 19.2 points. Denver ranks 27th defensively yielding 111.5 points per contest and also ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Making this atmosphere even more loose is that this is Tony Romo's "Maverick for a Day" game. The former Cowboys starting quarterback is going to sit on Dallas' bench in uniform. The Nuggets should get their points. If you discount their performance against the Pelicans, the Nuggets have averaged 119 points during their last 13 games. They've often played better on the road where the over has cashed in six of their last seven away contests. The Mavericks are giving up an average of 109 points in their last four games, including allowing 124 to the Suns during their last game this past Sunday. Phoenix shot 55 percent from the field in that game. This game also is lined in the pick range so overtime is a possibility.
04-10-17	Nets +11 v. Celtics	Top	105-114	Win	100	8 h 4 m	Show
Boston isn't playing well enough to cover this inflated number. The Celtics have surrendered 114 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics have failed to cover during their last five home games and are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting below .500 teams. On tap for Boston is a revenge game against the Bucks at home on Wednesday. Brooklyn has been under the radar going 11-11 in its last 22 games, including going 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets have been getting contributions from unsung players such as Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Brooklyn is more respectable with Jeremy Lin healthy. Brook Lopez is having a nice season, too. The Nets have covered in seven of their last nine away contests. Only once in their last 14 games have they lost by double digits. They rank 12th in points per game so they have the offense to take advantage of Boston's recent defensive woes.
04-09-17	Wolves -4.5 v. Lakers	Top	109-110	Loss	-110	15 h 49 m	Show
There are many reasons why I like the Timberwolves to cover this number. Some are obvious with the main one being Minnesota is the superior team. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins easily give the Timberwolves the two best players on the court. Ricky Rubio is having his finest career stretch averaging 19 points and 10 assists during his last 10 games. This, though, is build into the line. That's why Minnesota is a road favorite. To beat the line and cover the spread, though, we have to go beyond the obvious and look past the numbers. The Lakers have won three in a row beating the Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies. They haven't won four in a row all season. Prior to their win streak, the Lakers had lost 18 of 20. So what is going on? Have the Lakers really improved? No. They rank with the Nets, Suns and Kings as among the four worst teams in the NBA. During their win streak, the Lakers defeated the Kings, who are in tank mode, too. The Lakers beat the Spurs because Gregg Popovich didn't want his Spurs to win that game. That may have been the most bizarre game of the season, but I don't question Popovich, the best coach in the game. The Lakers did play hard in upsetting the Grizzlies at Staples Center, but Memphis was missing four rotation players, including their best big man, Marc Gasol. It's in the Lakers' best interest to LOSE. This is something management is well aware of and why the Lakers have been giving minutes to inexperienced bench players such as Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Tarick Black and Thomas Robinson. Even long-ago washed-up, mental patient Metta World Peace has averaged 13 minutes of playing time during the last two games. The Lakers now only have the third-worst record in the NBA passing the Suns. If the Lakers can sneak behind the Suns again to finish with the second-worst record instead of the third their chances of winning the lottery go from 47 percent to 56 percent. Improving their lottery odds is far more important to Lakers management than seeing their team win a meaningless April game against the Timberwolves. So you have to question LA's motivation here. That won't be the case with the Timberwolves and their fiery coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota entered its current four-game road trip winning three of four. But the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their road trip losing to the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Those teams are all extremely hard to beat at home. Thibodeau will be coaching hard - like he always does - and doesn't want to end this road swing going 0-4. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in class after their first three away contests. Thibodeau also will be reminding his team about their last visit to Staples Center against the Lakers. That was on March 24. The Timberwolves blew an eight-point lead with around 2 1/2 minutes left and lost in overtime.
04-08-17	Avalanche v. Stars OVER 5.5		3-4	Win	100	4 h 10 m	Show
I'm expecting a loose, high-scoring game between two teams who aren't going to the playoffs and have terrible defenses and goaltenders. The Avalanche rank last defensively, but have scored two or more goals in all but one of their last 10 games. Dallas gives up the second-most goals per game. The Stars' offense declined a lot from last season, but is still decent. Dallas has scored three goals in each of its last four games. The Stars have been a big over team at home. The over has cashed 17 of the past 22 times the Stars have been home.
04-08-17	Marlins v. Mets -120		8-1	Loss	-120	12 h 28 m	Show
I like the Mets to bounce back today at home after losing to the Marlins in the opener of the series on Friday. The Mets are the better team and have the superior starting pitcher in a matchup of southpaw Adam Conley versus Robert Gsellman. I'm high on Gsellman, who was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in eight games last season. The Marlins have never faced him. The Mets just faced a southpaw yesterday. Now they draw Conley, who missed the last six weeks of last season because of left hand teninitis. Conley didn't look good in spring training giving up 12 runs, including nine earned, in 15 2/3 innings.
04-08-17	Celtics -120 v. Hornets	Top	121-114	Win	100	12 h 6 m	Show
The Celtics are ready to win again after suffering embarrassing blowout losses to the Cavaliers and Hawks. This is a step down in class for Boston. The Celtics need to get back on track and still have hopes of winning the Eastern Conference being one game behind Cleveland after the Cavaliers were stunned by the Hawks last night. This is reality check time now for Boston. The Celtics' defense is capable of much better. The Celtics have owned the Hornets covering seven of the last eight times against them. Boston is 3-0 versus Charlotte this season winning by an average margin of eight points. The Hornets' run at making the final playoff spot has realistically ended. Charlotte is three games behind the last playoff spot with three games left. The Hornets are a spent team and haven't been good at home failing to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games.
04-07-17	Heat +6 v. Raptors	Top	94-96	Win	100	8 h 29 m	Show
Only twice in their last 16 games have the Heat lost by more than four points. I don't see Miami getting blown out here in a revenge spot from a 101-84 home loss to the Raptors and with the team back in sync following a blowout road victory against Charlotte in their last game. The Heat need every victory in their playoff quest. The Heat have covered 13 of their last 16 versus opponents with a winning record. They are 8-2 ATS on the road the past 10 times versus an above .500 home team. Erik Spoelstra has done a great job with Miami. I wouldn't argue if he were named Coach of the Year. This is Toronot's second game with Kyle Lowry back a point guard. So there's still an adjustment period.
04-06-17	Nets v. Magic -2.5	Top	107-115	Win	100	18 h 15 m	Show
Orlando doesn't have much, if anything to play for this season, except for this game. The teams just met this past Saturday in Brooklyn and the Nets defeated the Magic, 121-111. Brooklyn has been playing its finest ball of the season. I acknowledge that. But the Nets still are one of the three worst teams in the NBA if not the worse. I like Orlando's talent much better than Brooklyn's especially with Aaron Gordon beginning to play better. Orlando is 2-2 in its last four home games with one of those lossess occurring to the Thunder in overtime. Only once in their last six visits have the Nets covered in Orlando. The Magic had also won five straight versus the Nets until losing on Saturday. The Magic won't lack motivation in this revenge spot. The Nets are due for a flat spot having won three in a row. They host the Bulls on Saturday in their final home game. So the spot is ripe for the Magic. They have home-court and the better talent. Add it up and it should result in a cover for the Magic.
04-05-17	Raptors +1 v. Pistons	Top	105-102	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night. However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny. Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad. Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith. Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty. The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night.
04-04-17	Oilers +105 v. Kings		4-6	Loss	-100	15 h 9 m	Show
It was just a matter of time and now it's official. The Kings aren't making the playoffs. Edmonton is going to the playoffs after an 11-season absence. The Oilers are only two points behind the Ducks for first place in the Pacific Division. So the Oilers are the team with the motivation. Edmonton has won five in a row and will be rested having last played on Saturday. LA is 2-11 the past 13 times playing an above .500 opponent. The Oilers have been sparked by superstar Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom have 10-game point streaks going. The Oilers have scored three or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. They've notched a mind-boggling seven goals in three of those games during this span. The Kings' offense, not strong to begin, has gone into hibernation. The Kings have managed to break the two-goal barrier only twice in their last 11 games. LA also is going to have to deal with hot goalie Cam Talbot, who has stopped 88 of 93 shots during his last three games. Talbot has been tremendous, too, against the Kings posting a 3-0 mark with a 0.67 goals-against-average in his last three outings versus the Kings.
04-04-17	Bucks v. Thunder -4.5	Top	79-110	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
Oklahoma City is two levels higher than Milwaukee when playing at home, which is the case here. The Thunder have been dominant at Cheaspeake Energy Arena going 20-8-1 ATS the past 29 times. They've been especially strong versus weaker road teams going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times versus sub .500 road clubs. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times as home chalk, but is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. This includes a home loss to the Hornets two days ago in its last game. The Thunder is going for a high seed in the playoffs. Memphis, which would be the seventh-seed if the playoffs began now, is just 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely wants to avoid having to tangle with the Warriors or Spurs early in the playoffs. The Bucks could be short-handed in the backcourt if good-looking rookie guard Malcom Brogdon has to miss a third consecutive game because of back pain.
04-04-17	Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 206		90-108	Win	100	11 h 33 m	Show
Want a great below-the-radar number? The Raptors have gone under the total in 14 of their last 17 road games. In their last three away contests, the Raptors have held the Mavericks to 86, Heat to 84 and Pistons to 75. So look for a lower-scoring matchup than the oddsmaker is projecting. Indiana is off a heart-breaking double overtime 135-130 road loss to the Cavaliers. That could mean fatigue issues for Paul George, who also presents a tough defensive matchup for DeMar DeRozan. The Pacers figure to play at a slow pace after such a strenous effort in their last game. The teams just met this past Friday in Toronto. The Raptors won, 111-100. Now the total opened higher than what that total closed, which was 204. The Raptors play tighter on the road. The under has cashed the past five times, too, when the teams have played at Indiana.
04-03-17	North Carolina -125 v. Gonzaga	Top	71-65	Win	100	20 h 2 m	Show
I predicted the Tar Heels would win the national title and I'm certainly not backing down now. This isn't a fade on Gonzaga, but a play on North Carolina. Both teams have impressive talent and similar offensive skills. The Tar Heels hold the experience edge and rebounding advantage. Rebounding has been a weakness at times for the Zags this season. No team gets more offensive rebounds than North Carolina. Roy Williams has been to six NCAA championship games. This is Mark Few's first. That can't be underestimated. The last time a West Coast team won the NCAA title was Arizona 20 years ago. The last program to win a championship during its first tile game appearance was Connecticut in 1999. The Zags are 0-7 versus No. 1 seeds losing by an averaging of 14.4 points. The Tar Heels also played in a far tougher conference and also had to go through a tougher NCAA Tournament pairing than Gonzaga.
04-02-17	Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5	Top	117-110	Loss	-110	17 h 59 m	Show
It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup. The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble.
04-02-17	Islanders v. Sabres -123		4-2	Loss	-123	7 h 46 m	Show
I don't see the Islanders emerging from the horrible spot that the timing of this game brings. The Islanders are practically playing without rest having been in action Friday night and with this being a day game. It's also a three-in-four-days scenario for the Islanders, who have lost the past five times in that situation. Worse than the situation, though, for the Islanders is losing team captain and best player, John Taveres. He suffered a lower-body injury Friday and is out. Taveres not only is a great player, but the heart of hte team. Buffalo has won three of its last four home games, all by multiple goals. The Sabres' lone home loss during this span came to the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins. The Sabres have been idle since Tuesday so they should they have extremely fresh legs. They also get back star defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from a three-game suspension. The Sabres have scored 70 percent of their power play goals in their last five games. The Islanders, who rank 27th in power play, are just 3-for-33 on the power play in their last 10 games.
04-01-17	Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5	Top	76-77	Loss	-115	45 h 2 m	Show
Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here.
04-01-17	Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls	Top	104-106	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks.
03-31-17	Kings v. Canucks +150		2-0	Loss	-100	12 h 14 m	Show
The Canucks aren't very good. But neither are the Kings. The Kings are fooling themselves if they still believe they have a playoff chance because they don't. Not being 10 points down for the final wild-card spot with six games remaining. The Kings are coming off a 4-1 win against Calgary this past Wednesday, but are 3-6 in their past nine games. LA isn't a good road as evidenced by a 15-19-3-2 mark. The Kings have dropped five of their last six away contests. Vancouver is 18-14-6 at home. The spot is good, too, for the Canucks. They've been idle the past two days while the Kings are playing for the third in four days. The time off should help Henrik Sedin and goalie Ryan Miller, both of whom are due for strong performances. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is giving up 3.46 goals per game on the road. Add it all up and there's definitely good value for backing the home 'dog Canucks.
03-31-17	Pistons +10 v. Bucks	Top	105-108	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.