The Dodgers are playing their 28th game in 28 days. They obviously have fatigue issues, which has affected their offense. The Dodgers also have a tired and overworked bullpen.

The Dodgers are sitting out several regulars - Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson and Adrian Gonzalez.

The Cubs have fresher legs and have the superior starting pitcher going in Jon Lester over Carlos Frias. Lester had a rocky start but now is pitching like the elite pitcher he is giving up two runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. 

The A's are playing extremely well winning eight of their last 10 and have a red-hot Sonny Gray on the mound.
Gray is having another big season with an 8-3 record and 1.95 ERA. He has dominated Texas posting a 2-1 mark this year against the Rangers with an 0.87 ERA. Lifetime, Gray is 6-3 with a 1.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP versus Texas. The Rangers are batting just .196 against him.
Oakland has won 12 of the past 17 times as road chalk with Gray pitching.
Texas starter Colby Lewis is past his prime. He has a 4.08 ERA. The Rangers are 4-10 in Lewis' past 14 starts as a home 'dog.

Arizona is a better team than Colorado. I see no edge for the Rockies in starting pitching in this matchup either.
The Rockies have never faced Allen Webster, who is making his third NL start after coming from the Red Sox. He's had one good start and one rocky one. The book remains out on him.
However, David Hale is nothing special for Colorado. He's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his past two starts. Hale has surrendered six homers during his last three outings at Coors Field.
Arizona has won the past four times it has been a 'dog in this price range. The Diamondbacks also are 9-3 in their last 12 road games versus foes with a losing home mark.

Chris Sale is a dominant pitcher and he's pitching as well as he ever has with a 0.72 ERA in his last five games. 

The White Sox get their third look at Phil Hughes. Don't be fooled by Hughes' last performance, a victory against the Cubs. He still was leaving his pitches high in the strike zone. That's going to hurt him here.

Hughes surrendered 16 homers last year in 209 2/3 innings. This season he's already allowed 16 homers in 90 2/3 innings. His strikeout ratio is down from 8.0 last year to 5.5 this year. 

The Twins are 1-6 the past seven times Hughes has faced an AL Central Division foe. 

David Price trumps Danny Salazar and the Tigers don't lose to the Indians.
Detroit is 8-2 this season versus Cleveland. The Tigers have won nine of their last 10 at Progressive Field.
The Indians are 5-10 in their last 15 home games. They are averaging 2.5 runs during their last 12 games at Progressive Field.
Price dominated the Indians when he beat them, 4-0, at home 11 days ago giving up seven hits in a complete game victory. Price has owned the Indians going 8-1 against them with a 2.11 ERA in 11 career starts. He is 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA in his last four matchups versus the Indians.
Cleveland is averaging just 2.7 runs this month. Price should tame the Indians again. Price has a 2.50 ERA on the season with a 2.94 FIP. He remains an elite hurler.  
I see regression coming from Salazar. I don't put him in Price's elite class. Price should go deeper into the game, too, which is important because both bullpens have fatigue issues.

This is a pitching mismatch of massive proportions. Felix Hernandez may be the best pitcher in the AL while Joe Blanton could be the worst.
Hernandez is 6-2 with a 2.59 home ERA. Seattle is 30-11 during his past 41 starts.
This is just Blanton's second start since 2013. Coming into this season, Blanton hasn't had an ERA lower than 4.59 since 2009.

Toronto starter Drew Hutchinson has a 6.31 lifetime ERA in five starts against the Rays and the Blue Jays have a battered bullpen.
The Rays' pitching has trumped Toronto's hitting. Tampa Bay leads the AL in ERA and is 6-1 this season versus the Blue Jays holding them to two runs or less in five of those seven games.
Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese has given indications he can keep that string going. This month he's given up two runs in 9 2/3 innings during appearances versus the White Sox and Nationals with a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I trust Andriese more than the inconsistent Hutchinson and his 5.33 ERA. The Rays are home and have the superior bullpen, too.

The Pirates draw the Nationals after being no-hit by Max Scherzer yesterday. The Nationals are going to be fired-up for this game unhappy how Scherzer lost his perfect game believing Jose Tabata allowed himself to get hit by a pitch.
The Nationals have won six straight home games versus the Pirates.
Pirate starter Charlie Morton has had problems versus the Nationals with a 2-3 mark and 4.70 ERA in six starts. The Pirates are 6-15 in Morton's last 21 starts versus foes with winning records.
Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez pitches far more effectively at home. He has a winning home mark this season with a 3.26 ERA. The Nationals are 20-7 in his last 27 home starts. Gonzalez has defeated the Pirates the past four times he's faced them.

The Blue Jays have won 21 of their last 29 home games - nine of their last 10 - and have a strong history versus Baltimore starter Chris Tillman.
Tillman has faced Toronto three times this season lasting just 13 2/3 innings while surrendering a combined 30 hits and walks for a 12.51 ERA. Tillman has a 6.54 career ERA at Rogers Centre.
Baltimore is 2-7 in Tillman's last nine road starts against the Blue Jays. The Orioles have lost 17 of their last 24 road contests.

Tyson Ross is the superior pitcher and he should fare well against a top-heavy right-handed Diamondbacks lineup that is likely to be missing Yasmany Tomas.
The Padres also have a top-heavy right-handed hitting lineup but they are facing southpaw rookie call-up Robbie Ray. The Padres are a powerful team, especially away from Petco Park. Ray has been inconsistent with his control and is a fly ball pitcher. That's a bad combination at this venue and against this particular opponent.

Alfredo Simon is due for a regression and Nathan Eovaldi is due for a huge bounce back game after getting shelled in his last start.
Eovaldi was 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his four previous starts before getting bombed this past Monday by his former team the Marlins.
Eovaldi is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA during his past three starts at Yankee Stadium.
New York has beaten Detroit in seven of the past 10 meetings. The Yankees also are 10-1 against the Tigers at home.

It's time for Colorado to get well - and this is its game to do it. Things set up perfect here for the Rockies.
The Brewers come to Coors losers of six in a row and with low morale. Carlos Gomez is battling hip and groin injuries and could be out again. The Brewers also are starting Taylor Jungmann, who is replacing injured Wily Peralta. This is just Jungmann' third start. He's been lucky in his first two starts, but is due to get lit and figures to struggle at Coors Field.
The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors at .297. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlo Gonzalez are producing again after slow starts.
The Brewers have only won 32 percent of their last 50 road games. They face a hot Jorge De La Rosa, who has been dominant at Coors.
De La Rosa is 47-15 lifetime at Coors. Colorado is 23-6 (79%) during his past 29 home starts versus a foe with a losing record. Milwaukee has the second-worst record in baseball.
De La Rosa is in excellent form, too, going 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts.

The Rockies are better than they've shown especially when playing at Coors Field. I like them to avoid the sweep by taking advantage of a cold Collin McHugh.
McHugh is 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his last seven starts. He's given up four homers in his last two starts. The Rockies know McHugh from when he used to pitch for Colorado.
The Astros are likely to be without their best all-around player, Jose Altuve. He left yesterday's game with tightness in his right hamstring and isn't expected to play today.
Colorado starter David Hale is underrated. He has a very respectable 1.09 WHIP and has shown he can pitch well at hitter-crazy Coors.

Both starting pitchers - Hector Santiago and Chase Anderson - have been pitching above their heads. This is a dangerous spot for both of them.
Santiago is a flyball pitcher, who has surrendered four homers during his past two starts. His .221 BABIP against men on base and .146 BABIP with runners in scoring position are due for a regression.
The over has cashed in six of Santiago's last eight starts. Chase Field is an excellent hitter's park not conducive for a fly ball pitcher. The over is 14-4-3 in Arizona's last 21 games at Chase Field.
Anderson is off a hugely-satisfying 1-0 road win against Madison Bumgarner. Anderson nearly threw a no-hitter in that game. The right-hander, though, has had a big drop in strikeouts this season. He may not be as mentally sharp for this interleague matchup. The Angels have gone over seven of the past eight times when facing a right-handed starter on the road.
Anderson also has to deal with a pair of hot hitters in the resurgent Albert Pujols, who is batting .368 with 11 homers and 19 RBI during his last 18 games, and defending AL MVP Mike Trout, who is hitting .368 in his last 10 games with four homers.
Jim Wolf is the slated home plate umpire. The over has cashed 56 percent of the time during the last two years when he's been behind the dish. It's interesting to note that in Wolf's last 26 interleague games behind the plate the over is 18-7-1 for 72 percent.

Rangers rookie Chi Chi Gonzalez is due for a fall - and I say it happens here in his fourth start. Gonzalez has been sensational so far with a 0.42 ERA. That can't keep up. Gonzalez hasn't allowed 15 of 17 runners in scoring position to score. That's not going to keep up.
The due factor also fits for lefty Brett Anderson, who has just two wins despite posting a 2.79 ERA during his last eight starts. No pitcher induces more ground balls than Anderson. The Rangers have a losing record versus lefties.

I'm going to fade the Phillies on the road. Philadelphia has dropped 11 consecutive away contests. The Phillies are 3-17 in their last 20 games.
The Phillies have the worst offense in baseball and in this matchup have one of the worst starting pitchers going - Jerome Williams. He's given up 20 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 26 1/3 innings.
The Orioles are starting to get it together playing their best ball. Baltimore has won nine of its last 11 games. Orioles starter Chris Tillman has won his last two games. He's surrendered only one homer in his last five starts. The Phillies have never faced him before, which is an advantage for Tillman.

Tim Lincecum is a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner - and he still pitches like it when he's throwing at AT&T Park.
Lincecum is 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 36 1/3 innings pitching at home this season. Foes are batting only .214 off him at AT&T Park. San Francisco is 19-7 during Lincecum's past 26 home starts.
By the same token, Seattle lefty J.A. Happ is terrible on the road with a 1-1 record and 6.14 ERA away mark this season. Happ also has struggled when going against the Giants with a career mark of 0-3 and 7.63 ERA.
The Giants have won 14 of their last 17 (82 percent) home games when drawing a southpaw starter.

The Royals aren't hitting and have lost their last two games.
But the Royals received some unexpected rest yesterday as their game against the Cardinals was rained out. And, now, they draw the Brewers. Milwaukee has the second-worst record in the majors.
Kansas City should end its offensive woes facing Kyle Lohse, who has a 6.27 ERA on the season and is 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA in his last three starts. The Brewers have dropped nine of their past 12 home contests and are batting an NL-low .232.
Royals starter Edinson Volquez is having a solid season and has a good track record against the Brewers. Volquez pitched for the Pirates last year and went 2-1 against Milwaukee with a 2.25 ERA in 2014.
The price is low enough to back the better pitcher, superior bullpen and far better all-around team.

There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4.
But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover.
The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers.
James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime.
Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs.
Prop Recommendation:
I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. 
Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games.
Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4. 

Cincinnati is 5-1 in its last six games and has two of its key injured players back, stolen base leader Billy Hamilton and Brandon Phillips. In addition, shortstop Eugenio Suarez is doing a nice job replacing injured Zach Cosart.
Reds starter Mike Leake is 8-2 lifetime versus the Cubs with a 3.19 ERA.
The Cubs have bullpen fatigue issues and their starter, Kyle Hendricks, has completed six innings in seven of his last 11 starts. Hendricks only has three quality starts, too.

All three games in this NBA championship Series have gone under the posted total during regulation. It hasn't been that close either as they've gone under by an average of 13.3 points. I get that the series has been about outstanding defense, particularly Cleveland's defense.
But this is 10 points under the posted Game 1 total, the lowest over/under of the series. I say it's too much of an adjustment.
There are a number of reasons for this.
After 11 quarters, the Warriors finally got untracked in the fourth quarter of Game 3 this past Tuesday scoring 36 in the period. Stephen Curry put up 17 of those. Curry finally showed a skip to his step and played like he did during his MVP regular season.
Curry is at his best on the open floor. Steve Kerr is going to make that happen by going to a smaller lineup getting David Lee more involved. Lee is an offensive upgrade on ineffective Andrew Bogut and defensive-minded and banged-up Draymond Green.  
The Cavaliers have a much shorter bench than the Warriors. They have been concentrating on the defensive end while letting LeBron James do nearly all of the offensive work. I can see fatigue affecting Cleveland's defensive effort and intensity in this Game 4, which has a short turnaround time from when Game 3 was played.
I also see the Cavaliers stepping up their offensive performance. James is in line for another monster game with Green bothered by a back injury suffered in Game 2. Green, maybe the Warriors' top defender, played barely 30 minutes this past Tuesday. That was the second-fewest minutes he's logged during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers put up 52 points in the second half in Game 3. Some of this was because Cavaliers coach David Blatt went to more double high posts, which opened up his team's offense and gave James more freedom.  

The Reds have gone over the total in nine of their last 10 games. The Phillies have gone over during their last eight games. Look for those streaks to continue in this day matchup at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, the best park in the majors for hitting homers.
The Phillies are starting 33-year-old journeyman Jerome Williams, who might be the worst starting pitcher in the NL. Williams has just one quality outing during his last eight starts. He has a 6.81 ERA during this span.
Only once during his last eight starts has Williams pitching more than five innings. The Phillies have terrible middle relief - as do the Reds.
Rookie Joe Moscot makes his second start. He's a fill-in for Raisel Iglesias, who also was a fill-in. Moscot struggled in his debut this past Friday giving up four runs in five inning during a 6-2 home loss to the Padres.

A drop of 10 points from Game 1's closing number helps put me on the over in this Game 3 matchup of the Warriors-Cavaliers.
The first two games fell under the total during regulation. So there is some zig-zag involved here, but also the fact that the week layoff following the conference championship games and the Finals threw both offenses out of whack. Now the two teams have played a pair of games.
LeBron James ranks among the game's greatest players. He's at his peak. The Warriors can't stop him. He's going to do massive offensive damage especially now that the series shifts to Cleveland where James figures to get the majority of calls in his favor.
The Warriors, though, should pick up the pace now that they've had a couple of games to adjust to the Cavaliers. The slow pace of Sunday's Game 2 was not conducive to the Warriors.
It should be near impossible for Stephen Curry to miss 18 of 23 shots from the floor, including 13 of 15 from 3-point range, like he did this past Sunday. Curry is the most deadly shooter in the league.

A combination of the Cavaliers winning Game 2 and now returning home has caused a seven-point adjustment in the line from Game 2.
Yes, I was surprised the Warriors fell outright to Cleveland this past Sunday. I certainly respect the Cavaliers and the great LeBron James. But I'm not going to overreact.
The Warriors were tight in Game 1. The long layoff following the conference championship game certainly didn't help them. The Warriors got caught playing Cleveland's style too much in Game 2. Now that we're into Game 3, I see the Warriors finally playing up to their capabilities.
Golden State is 24-11 ATS the last 35 times following a defeat. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS after covering the spread in its last game.
James gives the Cavaliers the best player on the court. But the Warriors dominate from there with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving out. They also have the far superior bench.
Golden State's depth and versatility will be keys in this Game 3 with just one day in between games.
The Warriors shot less than 40 percent from the floor in Game 2. They missed 27 of 35 shots from 3-point range. Stephen Curry may have had his worst game ever. Yet Golden State only lost by two points in overtime. That's telling.
The Cavaliers are who they are now - heavily LeBron James-oriented. But the Warriors still have several more gears. They are the superior team - and it will show here.

The Rockies are home and more rested than the Cardinals having played yesterday afternoon, while the Cardinals had to play the Sunday night game arriving into Denver in the wee hours of the morning.
St. Louis starter John Lackey has had problems away from Busch going 0-4 with a 5.15 ERA in his last eight road starts going back to last September. St. Louis is 1-8 in Lackey's past nine road starts.
The right-hander hasn't fared well at Coors either with an 0-1 mark and 6.39 ERA in two starts. The Rockies are 9-4 in their last 13 games versus a righty starter.
David Hale is set to make his third start for Colorado. Hale showed promise with Atlanta last year, but was squeezed out by the Braves' many good pitching candidates. Hale hasn't walked a batter this season in 12 2/3 innings.
The Rockies' offense usually is keyed by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both are coming on after slow starts. Gonzalez is 9-for-20 in his last five games while Tulowitzki has a seven-game hitting streak.
Colorado has won nine of the last 13 times it has been an underdog.

It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread.
By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation.
I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest.
On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench.
As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1.  
The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball - when he doesn't face the Cardinals. The Dodgers are 6-11 against St. Louis the last 17 times Kershaw has gone against the Cardinals.
Kershaw isn't having his typical dominant season either so far with a 4-3 record and 3.73 ERA. He has a 5.69 ERA in his last eight games against the Cardinals.
The Dodgers have key injuries on offense and have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 20 games. LA would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.
Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has been held back because of injuries not lack of talent. The lefty has been strong in three starts since coming off the DL posting a 2.70 ERA. Note, too, that the Dodgers' OPS versus southpaws is .693 compared to .806 against righties.

Let's face it. Joe Kelly is not a Fenway Park pitcher. Kelly is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his four starts at Fenway this season. Boston is 1-5 in Kelly's last six starts.
Boston and Oakland have bad records so far. The bad record is legitimate with the Red Sox because they are bad. The A's, though, have been highly unlucky. They have started to show signs of life. The same can't be said for the Red Sox.
Oakland starter Jesse Chavez is just 2-5, but he has a 2.11 ERA. The righty has been given the lowest run support of any starter in the majors. Boston is 3-8 in its last 11 games versus a righty.

The Royals are very tough at home where they've won 25 of their last 36. They have defeated Texas in eight of the past 11 meetings, including the past four in Kansas City.
The Rangers are minus injured Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton. Rookie Chi Chi Gonzalez is making only his second big league start. He was 3-5 with a 4.15 ERA in Triple A. He was effectively wild in his debut this past Saturday against the Red Sox. Gonzalez walked five in 5 2/3 innings, but didn't give up a run.
Look for the disciplined Royals to exploit Gonzalez's wildness now that they have something to go on, something the Red Sox were missing. Kansas City ranks No. 1 in the majors in batting average and is fifth in runs. The Red Sox, by contrast, are 26th in runs.
Royals starter Edinson Volquez has pitched much better at home where he is 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA in six starts at Kauffman Stadium this year.

It's payback time for the Blue Jays, who were swept four games at Houston last month.
The pitching matchup is ripe for Toronto and so is the spot. The Astros are a powerful, but low average team that has lost 10 of the past 13 times when playing on astroturf. They are 2-5 during their past seven games at Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays lead the majors in runs scored. Houston has broken the three-run barrier only twice in its last seven games.
I see Toronto's big bats unloading against journeyman Roberto Hernandez, who has close to a 5.00 ERA and has allowed 12 runs in his past two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Hernandez has a 4.38 lifetime ERA versus Toronto.
I like the Blue Jays' promising Aaron Sanchez much better. Sanchez is making the transition from reliever to starter and getting better. He is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA in five home starts while holding opposing hitters to a .204 batting average.
The Blue Jays have done the job for the most part as home chalk winning 10 of the past 14 times for 71 percent.

Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5.
The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena.
I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair.
The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively.
Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world.
But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league.
The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson.
The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent.
Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State.

At some point, the Orioles are going to start winning and Houston is going to fall back to Earth.
Maybe that won't happen right away, but I see the Orioles at least winning this game. Houston starter rookie Lance McCullers has good potential, but he's not ready for the majors yet. This will be his fourth start - and opponents now know what to expect. I expect McCullers to soon be out of Houston's rotation and back in the minors.
Closer Luke Gregerson is Houston's best relief pitcher - and he carries a fatigue rating having pitched during each of the past two days.
Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez is more established than McCullers. He's also coming off a brilliant performance holding the Rays to one run and two hits in eight innings this past Friday. Gonzalez struck out six and did not walk a batter.
The Orioles are 4-1 the past five times Gonzalez has been a 'dog in the plus $1.10 to $1.50 range.
Gonzalez also has a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against the Astros in Houston.

After seeing the Brewers' starting lineup I'm going to lay this price. John Lackey has pitched great all season while Jimmy Nelson has been inconsistent. Milwaukee is 3-12 in Nelson's last 15 starts. The Cardinals are 10-1 in Lackey's last 11 home starts. 

The Brewers' bottom of the order is composed of Shane Peterson, Hector Gomez, Herman Perez and Nelson. That combination is not likely to produce much - if any - offense. 

The Braves are hotter than Arizona and have the superior starting pitcher going. So the price certainly is reasonable.

The markets don't show much respect for Shelby Miller. That's a mistake as Miller is 5-2 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are batting only .175 against him. No team has scored more than two earned runs during any of Miller's 10 starts this season. The Braves have a fresh bullpen, too, thanks to Alex Wood's strong performance last night.

Atlanta is in a rebuilding year, but the Braves are playing well now winning three in a row and winning a series on the road from the Giants. The Braves are averaging 7.6 runs in their last three games batting .313 during this span.

Arizona has dropped five of its last seven. Diamondbacks starter Josh Collmenter is several tiers lower than Miller. He's 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts versus Atlanta.

Collmenter has a 5.05 ERA on the season. His fastball velocity is down from past seasons, which is reflected in a strikeout-per-nine inning ratio drop of 8.3 from two years ago to 4.6 this season.

It tells you something when the oddsmaker makes the Rockies a favorite against the Dodgers. Jorge De La Rosa is one of the few pitchers who can pitch well at Coors Field. He has a strong history there.

Juan Nicasio is a fill-in starter for the Dodgers and he hasn't been stretched out all season. I don't see him going deep into the game.

The Dodgers also are starting their JV lineup. Among their starters are Chris Heisey, Enrique Hernandez and Austin Barnes. 

Alex Wood has shown signs of turning around his season and Atlanta is in an excellent situational spot for this matchup.
Wood is 2-0 in his last two starts giving up a combined two earned runs in 14 innings during this span. Wood cites mechanical adjustments in turning things around after a cold start, including more confidence in his curveball and changeup.
While Wood is hot, Arizona starter Archie Bradley has been in terrible form after getting smacked in the face by a line drive. Since coming off the DL from that injury, Bradley is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA.
This is a bad spot, too, for the Diamondbacks. It's their first home game in a week and they had to play 17 innings on Sunday at Milwaukee leaving them with a high bullpen fatigue rating.
Arizona also is 2-8 in its last 10 home games versus opponents with a losing road mark.

Miami has been very disappointing this season, but the Cubs are 5-7 in their last 12 games.
Chicago is averaging only 2.2 runs during its last six games.
Cubs starter Jason Hammel is pitching on extra rest - but that's not necessarily a good thing. When pitching on six-plus days' rest he's 9-10 during his career with a 5.09 ERA.
Hammel also is 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA in eight lifetime games versus the Marlins. Chicago has dropped eight of Hammel's last nine starts versus foes with a losing record.
Giancarlo Stanton has hit five homers in his last five home games against the Cubs.
Rookie Jose Urena makes his second start of the season for the Marlins. Rookie starters have held the Cubs to four earned runs in 17 1/3 innings this season.
Urena didn't have an impressive start in his debut last Tuesday versus the Pirates, but was 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA at Triple-A. This will be his first home start and he should be pumped.

The A's have been baseball's most unlucky team. But that's changing as the A's have won five of their last seven. They have owned the Yankees, especially at O.co Coliseum. Oakland hosts New York again today - and the price is right.
Oakland starter Jesse Hahn is under-the-radar. He's given up just five earned runs in his last three starts, including shutting out the Tigers, 4-0, this past Monday.
The Yankees are going with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 4-1 but has a 4.27 ERA. Eovaldi has been the beneficiary of outstanding run support. But I don't see him getting it here. New York is averaging 2.4 runs during its last 10 road games.
The Yankees have dropped 12 of their last 16 games. They really struggle in Oakland having lost 11 of their last 12 at O.co Coliseum.
Oakland is 16-5 in the past 21 meetings versus the Yankees, who are 1-9 in their past 10 road contests.  


 

I'll lay this number anytime given the Yankees' problems playing at O.co Coliseum and a starting pitching matchup of washed-up Chris Capuano versus American League ERA leader Sonny Gray.
New York is 4-11 in its last 15 games. The Yankees can't win in Oakland either dropping 10 of their last 11 there. New York blew a three-run lead in losing to the A's last night, which can't help their sinking morale.
Oakland has been the unluckiest team in baseball. But the A's are making strides winning four of their last six. They are 15-5 in their last 20 games against the Yankees and have a monster starting pitching edge.
Gray is one of the best pitchers in the American League. No one in the AL has a lower ERA than Gray's 1.77. The next closest is Felix Hernandez at 1.91.
The Yankees are averaging 2.5 runs in their last nine away contests. They are 1-8 during their past nine road games.
Capuano is a five-inning, journeyman type pitcher who only is in New York's starting rotation due to an injury to Chase Whitley. Capuano hasn't even made it through five innings during his two starts this season for the Yankees. He is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. This isn't surprising since Capuano hasn't had a winning record since 2005.

Stephen Strasburg has yet to turn the corner. His season has been a nightmare with a 6.50 ERA. He has shown no signs of turning the corner either with a 10.50 ERA in his last four starts. 

Reds starter Anthony DeSciafani is mediocre at best. 

Great American Ball Park is one of the top parks in the majors and the weather is going to be humid. 

These are two good offenses. The Nationals especially have been on fire. They lead the NL in runs per game at 4.6 and can take advantage of a Reds bullpen that has a 5.30 ERA when Aroldis Chapman doesn't pitch. 

On paper, a pitching matchup of CC Sabathia versus Kendall Graveman doesn't inspire confidence for an under. But there is more than meets the numbers here with these two starters.
Sabathia is off his worst performance of the year going just 2 1/3 innings this past Saturday in a 15-4 loss to Texas. The prideful veteran will look to bounce back strong. Sabathia has pitched better than his record. He has a respectable 3.48 road ERA in six away starts and a 3.22 ERA versus the A's since joining the Yankees in 2009.
The under has cashed in five of Sabathia's last six road outings. The hefty lefty is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The A's have an OPS of just .576 against southpaws.
O.co Coliseum is a pitcher's park and the A's are averaging only 2.7 runs during their last dozen games.
Graveman pitched terrible early in the season, but looks straightened out after giving up three hits with six strikeouts in six scoreless innings during his last start, a 5-0 win against the Rays this past Saturday. The Yankees have the disadvantage of never having faced Graveman.
Graveman and the A's also have the advantage of being more rested as the Yankees had to fly cross-country after winning at home on Wednesday. So this isn't a good spot for the Yankee hitters.

The Rangers are averaging seven runs per game in their last seven games. The Indians are averaging five runs a game during their past six contests.
Both teams have bullpen fatigue issues and the starting pitching matchup is 35-year-old Colby Lewis versus Carlos Carrasco. Lewis clearly has seen better days. The right-hander has given up 10 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 career ERA versus the Indians in seven appearances, including six starts.
The over has cashed 12 of the last 17 times the Indians have faced a right-handed starter.
Carrasco still hasn't turned the corner to being a consistent top starter. He's had four bad performances and two decent ones during his past six starts. He also carries a 7.29 lifetime ERA in five appearances, including three starts, versus the Rangers.
The offenses should be boosted by a 15 mph wind blowing out to right. Jeff Nelson is the scheduled home plate umpire. The over has cashed four of the six times he has been behind the plate this year.


 

Lefty David Price is an ace. The Tigers have won eight of his last nine starts.
Jesse Chavez is a No. 5 type starter with a lifetime mark of 0-3 and 9.90 ERA versus the Tigers. He is 0-1 at home this season with a 4.15 ERA.
Chavez is going to have to deal with Miguel Cabrera, who is slated to be back in Detroit's lineup after resting on Monday. Cabrera is batting .413 during a 12-game hitting streak. He is 3-for-7 lifetime against Chavez with a home run.
Oakland is 1-9 this season versus southpaws, the worst record in the majors. Going back to last year, the A's have dropped 22 of their last 27 against lefties.
The Athletics also lead the majors in errors and have dropped 12 of their past 15 home games.  

Now that the Nationals are showing up as an underdog, I'm going to get involved and back them. It's not often you get  the better offense, far superior starting pitcher and better bullpen at an underdog price. Jordan Zimmerman is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA during his last five starts. The Nationals are 20-5 in their last 25 games. They have the hottest player this month in Bryce Harper.

No team has a better record since April 28 than the Nationals, who are 19-5 since then. Washington has won 13 of its last 16, including seven of its past eight games.
The Nationals played three hours earlier then the Cubs on Sunday. Chicago is at a schedule disadvantage even being home. The Cubs have been on the West Coast for a week. This is their first home game since then - and it's made more disadvantageous by an early start time.
Tanner Roark was brilliant last season winning 15 games while compiling a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He's allowed only one run in his last eight innings but has been used in the bullpen up to this point because the Nationals have the best starting rotation in baseball. Now he's back starting with Doug Fister sidelined.
The Nationals have won 10 of Roark's past 14 starts. Roark is good enough to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter on a lesser team.
Cubs starter Tsuyoshi Wada is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. This is his second start of the season. He had been out with a left groin strain. He couldn't reach the fifth inning in his first start, which was this past Wednesday at pitcher-friendly San Diego.
Wada has to contend with a hot hitting Nationals team that is averaging six runs during their last 16 games. During this span, Bryce Harper is batting .491 with 11 homers and 26 RBIs.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot.
Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest.
The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis.
DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason.
The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that.
Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared.
Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.

Washed-up journeyman Chris Capuano can't be a favorite against any team especially one as hot as Texas.
The Rangers have won four in a row. They have scored 116 runs this month, best of any team during May. The Rangers have been better on the road all season going 14-10, including winning 10 of their last 13 away matchups.
Capuano is making just his second start since being out since spring training after suffering a quad strain. He completed just three plus innings during his season debut a week ago on the road against the Royals giving up four runs. He is 0-1 with a 5.50 ERA in seven starts at Yankee Stadium.
Capuano is not even an innings eater. He's only drawing a start because of the Yankees' multiple pitching injuries. The Yankees carry a heavy bullpen fatigue rating so Capuano is going to have to go deeper than normal into the game.
New York also happens to be playing its worst ball losing nine of its last 10. The Yankees face right-hander Yovani Gallardo. New York has lost the last eight times it has faced a right-handed starter.
Gallardo is on the downswing of his career, too, making the move to the AL from the Brewers. But he still rates a solid edge over Capuano.

No team in the majors has scored more runs this month than Texas. The Rangers are red-hot scoring 25 runs during the first two games of this series while forcing New York to use up a lot of bullpen innings.

The Rangers' offense should continue to pour on runs facing washed-up journeyman Chris Capuano, making his second start of the season after coming back from a strained quad sustained during spring training. Capuano has a 5.50 ERA in seven career starts at Yankee Stadium. Capuano has had an ERA of at least 4.25 during four of the last five years. He's pitched for five teams since 2010.
Texas starter Yovani Gallardo is past his prime, too.  He's 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA in his last six starts and carries a 4.97 road ERA.
Toby Basner is the scheduled home plate umpire. He's been in the majors since 2012 and the over has cashed 66 percent of his career 38 times behind the plate. The forecast is for a slight wind that will be blowing out.

The combination of a fade on Shelby Miller, off his near no-hitter, and backing under-the-radar Mike Fiers puts me on the underdog Brewers.
Fiers has had only one bad outing during his past five starts. Milwaukee is 3-2 in Fiers' past five starts. Fiers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past five starts with a 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio during those four games. On the season, Fiers has 52 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings.
The Braves have the disadvantage of never having faced Fiers.
Miller is a good young pitcher. He came without one out of a no-hitter during his last start, a 6-0 victory against the Marlins this past Sunday.
A letdown is in order for Miller - and so is his luck. He has a brilliant 1.33 ERA, but has been extremely lucky with a left on base percentage of 88.8 percent, currently the third-highest strand rate in the majors. His strikeout per nine inning ratio is down from his career average of 7.5. So he's due for a slide.
The Brewers have been a major disappointment so far. But they still have power ranking in the top 10 in homers while hitting 16 more home runs this season than Atlanta.

The Reds are in trouble whenever Johnny Cueto isn't on the mound and when they have to turn to anyone in their bullpen not named Arolidis Chapman. Reds relievers have a combined 5.89 ERA this season, not including dominant closer Chapman. 

The Reds' bullpen is likely to get into play early here as Cincinnati starter Anthony DeSlafini is averaging less than five innings during his past five starts, four of which he's lost. 

Cleveland has won four in a row and Corey Kluber is back in ace form giving one run and striking out 30 during his past two starts. 

Cincinnati has been terrible in interleague losing 10 of its last 11, including the past five. 

The Detroit Tigers have the best record in days games in the majors at 16-4. Tigers starter Kyle Lobstein has the best record of any American League pitcher in day games at 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA. 

The Tigers have won three in a row and catch the overachieving Astros on the downswing. The Astros are an all-or-nothing type of team. They realy heavily on the home run. However, Lobstein is a ground-ball pitcher and Comerica Park is a spacious pitcher's park. 

Detroit gets to face young Lance McCullers, making just his second big league start. McCullers didn't pitch at all in Triple A and had just four starts in Class AA. He lasted less than five innings in his debut this past Monday in a 2-1 loss to Oakland. 

Outstanding defense and slow pace. That's a winning combination for an under play - and that's the scenario I see for this Game 2 of the Cavaliers-Hawks Eastern Conference Finals.
Cleveland has gone under in six of its last seven road games. The Cavaliers are giving up an average of 86.7 points during their last four games.
This isn't a fluke either. Because of Kevin Love's injury, Cavaliers coach David Blatt has figured out his best defensive starting lineup consists of Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert being on the court. Cleveland has yielded fewer than 90 points a game during the past six games Thompson and Shumpert have started. Thompson is the ultimate under player - a big man who can rebound and play defense but would rather pass than shoot.
The Hawks are a solid defensive team. They've allowed an average of 89.6 points per game during their last three games. DeMarre Carroll may not play. He's a good defender, but his impact would also be felt on Atlanta's offense. The under has cashed in five of the Hawks' last seven home contests.
Despite J.R. Smith having a game for the ages in Game 1 hitting eight of 12 shots from 3-point range, the total reached just 186 with Cleveland winning, 97-89.
These teams know how to defend each other. They also played at an extremely slow pace with an average of just over four fast break points per quarter, while eating up a lot of clock before shooting. The 92.5 point possession rate the teams played in Game 1 would have ranked last in the NBA.
The Hawks' defensive task is made easier by Kyrie Irving being far from 100 percent and now having just one day off between games. The under is 35-15-1 (70 percent) the past 51 times the Cavaliers have played on one day's rest.
Minus Love and with Irving hurting, LeBron James has to take deeper shots and he's shooting just 14 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs missing 42 of 49 shots from beyond the arc.
The Hawks' best 3-point shooter, Kyle Korver, is wearing down and cold, too. He's missed 12 of his last 15 shots from 3-point range.
Atlanta is in a desperate position down 0-1 at home. This is going to be an intense, methodical, grind-out defensive game. Worthy of a strong under play.

Both teams have bullpen fatigue issues. Both are bad fielding teams and each team has a weak starting pitching going.
The Cubs' Kyle Hendricks has a 5.15 ERA. He hasn't pitched nearly as well as he did as a rookie last year as opponents have adjusted to him. The over has cashed in five of Hendrick's six road starts.
The right-handed Hendricks has failed to get through the sixth inning during his last five starts. The Padres have gone over in eight of their last nine home games when going against a righty. Hendricks is going to have deal with a hot Justin Upton, who has three homers in his last three games.  
The Cubs are 11-4-2 to the over in their last 17 road games and should do damage to Ordisamer Despaigne, who has a 6.75 ERA and been lit up his last two starts giving up 15 earned runs in eight innings. Despaigne has an unorthodox pitching motion that at first baffled teams when he first came up to the majors last year. But like Hendricks, Despaigne isn't fooling anyone as the league has caught up.
The relief pitching of each team have been disappointing ranking in the bottom 25 percent of bullpen ERA with a combined dozen blown save chances.  
Ed Hickox is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed all three times Hickox has been behind the dish this season.

I don't see the Hawks getting into a hole right away by losing this Game 1 at home. Both teams have had ample time to prepare, but Kyrie Irving is hobbled.  
The Cavaliers already are without Kevin Love. LeBron James doesn't have a strong history in Game 1 of past series - 1-3 ATS during his last four playoff series - and Cleveland lost the past three times facing the Hawks during the regular season. The past two games were in Atlanta and the Hawks won those contests by nine and eight points, respectively.
The Hawks have a good defensive stopper, DeMarre Carroll. James scored 18 points and turned the ball over nine times the last time he faced Atlanta. James has to do way too much if Irving is too limited by the tendinitis in his left knee. Irving isn't the only Cleveland player hurting. Iman Shumpert (groin) and Tristan Thompson (shoulder) are not 100 percent either. This could impact Cleveland's defense.
I trust Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer, the coach of the year, more than I do Cleveland coach David Blatt. The Cavaliers face a tougher adjustment going from the talent-lacking Celtics and cold-shooting Bulls to playing the Hawks, who had a tough series with the Wizards.
Al Horford may be the second-best player on the court depending on Irving's physical condition. He stepped up against the Wizards. I expect Kyle Korver, who was so outstanding during the regular season, to get over his uncharacteristic shooting woes. Korver was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA this season, but missed 11 of his last 12 shots from beyond the arc against the Wizards.
 

The Nationals and Bryce Harper are red hot winning 10 of their last 12. The Yankees are cold losing six of their last seven games.
New York has a huge starting pitching disadvantage and will be without its leading hitter, Jacoby Ellsbury. He suffered a sprained knee in last night's loss to the Nationals.
The pitching matchup is Adam Warren, who has a 4.50 ERA and just one career quality start, facing Jordan Zimmerman, who has six consecutive quality starts. Zimmerman is 5-0 lifetime with a 1.87 ERA in eight interleague home starts.
Washington has won 73 percent of Zimmerman's past 51 home games.
Sparked by Harper, the Nationals have scored 90 runs in their last dozen games for an average of 7.5 runs per game. Harper is batting .535 during this stretch with 10 homers and 23 RBIs.
The Yankees, by contrast, have scored only more than two runs once during their past seven games.

Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them.
Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday.
Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA.
I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games.
The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series.
Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field.
The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points.
The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.

The Nationals are playing well winning 15 of their last 19 games. The price is short enough to get involved with the superior home team that is hitting well and has Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez doesn't have good statistics so far, but he always has been solid at Nationals Park with a career ERA of 2.80 there and a 21-11 record. He is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last six home starts. Washington is 16-5 in Gonzalez's last 21 home starts. 

Few of the current Yankees have faced Gonzalez since the last time he pitched against New York was 2012. New York is slumping offensively, too, scoring just 11 runs in its last six games while batting only .215 during this span. 

The Nationals are acquainted with former Marlins pitcher and Yankee starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 4.76 ERA in seven starts against Washington career-wise. 

The Astros lead the majors in homers. The Athletics are sixth in runs scored.
The pitching matchup is Drew Pomeranz versus Lance McCullers. So, yes, I believe each team is good for at least four runs.
Oakland has scored a minimum of three runs in all but one of its last seven games. The Astros are averaging six runs per game during their past four games.
Pomeranz is 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in four road starts this year. He's made four starts and five appearances career-wise versus the Astros and is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA. This is the third time already the Astros will be facing Pomeranz this season.
McCullers isn't ready for the majors. He had a 5.47 ERA in 97 innings in Class A last year. That dropped his stock. He was pitching much better this year - but at Double A. He hasn't even thrown an inning yet in Triple A yet he was elevated to Houston's starting spot here because Brett Oberholtzer is out with a blister on his pitching hand.  
The game is at Minute Maid Park, which is a hitter's park with or without the retractable roof in use. If the roof isn't closed, batters will be aided by 10-15 mph winds blowing out. The over has cashed 18 of the last 25 times these teams have played in Houston.


 

Stephen Strasburg is having a bad season so far especially judging by his lofty standards. But it's not a leap of faith to back him in this matchup.
Strasburg has been beset by various physical aliments. Few pitchers can compare to Strasburg - when he's healthy. Everything is in order now with Strasburg. His ankle and back woes aren't bothering him and he's straighten out his mechanics.
Strasburg is ready to cut loose again and this is a perfect spot for him. He's throwing in the premier pitching park in baseball and in his hometown against a San Diego team minus its leading hitter (Yonder Alonso) and top run scorer (Wil Myers).
Strasburg has a 2.14 ERA during his last three starts against the Padres, all victories.
The Nationals are 14-4 in their last 18 games. They have won nine of their last 12 road contests and are 11-5 during their past 16 games at Petco.
Padres starter Ian Kennedy is off his worst start of the season giving up five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings during an 11-4 road loss to the Mariners this past Tuesday. Kennedy has been plagued by the long ball surrendering seven homers in his last four starts that spanned 22 innings.
The Nationals feature one of the hottest hitters in Bryce Harper, who is hitting .543 in his last 10 games and owns a .405 career batting average against the Padres in 12 games.

What are the oddsmakers saying by making the Clippers a road favorite against the Rockets in Game 7? They're telling you the Clippers are the better team - and I agree.
For the first time since early in their opening round playoff series against the Spurs, the Clippers get two days rest. It couldn't have come at a better team for the Clippers after their epic meltdown in Game 6 blowing a 19-point third quarter lead in their home loss this past Thursday.
Credit to the Rockets for this comeback, but the Clippers simply ran out of gas and got too overconfident. That's not going to happen in this game. The Clippers are the smarter team, better coached and have a top floor general in Chris Paul.
Josh Smith and Corey Brewer aren't going to get that hot again. Smith is one of the worst percentage shooters in the NBA. The Rockets haven't played any defense in this series. The Clippers were getting good looks, but ran out of gas, which affected their shooting.
The Clippers are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. They have proven themselves on the road, too covering 76 percent of their past 22 away matchups.
Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its past 14 meetings versus the Clippers.  
 

All six games of this series have gone over the total. Once again we have the highest total of the series. It takes a lot of things to fall into place to exceed this high of a number.
Now, for the first time in the series, the teams have two days to prepare and rest instead of just one day. That means a lot this deep into the season especially for the Clippers, who ran out of gas in blowing a 19-point second-half lead this past Thursday.
I'm expecting a much tighter Clippers defense. LA is capable of this especially since they've had time to practice for the first time since this series began. The under has cashed the past four times the Clippers have played again after suffering a double-digit home loss. The Clippers also have gone under four of the past five times when playing on two days rest.
When the Clippers last played on an extra day of rest, they held the high-scoring Spurs to 94 points during regulation in Game 2 of their opening-round series.
DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard are two of the best defensive big men in basketball. Intensity is going to be at its peak for both teams in this do-or-die Game 7. That means making that extra pass, making sure to get back in transition and effectively boxing out to prevent offensive rebounds.  
The pace figures to be more deliberate and the referees aren't going to dominate the action with frequent whistles.

St. Louis has the best record in baseball, but the Cardinals aren't playing particularly well right now going 2-4 in their last six games. They have bullpen fatigue issues and a huge starting pitching disadvantage going against David Price with Tyler Lyons.
Price is one of the premier pitchers in baseball and is going on two extra days rest. Price is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three road starts this season. The Cardinals have never faced him.
Lyons is making his third start of the season. He has close to a 5.00 ERA and is 2-8 lifetime in the majors. He's only in the rotation right now because of an injury to Adam Wainwright and figures to go back to the minors, or long relief, when Jaime Garcia is physically ready to pitch again for the Cardinals, which could be very soon.
The Tigers are swinging hot bats scoring 23 runs in their last two games with 37 hits. Miguel Cabrera usually is deadly in day games batting .471 with eight homers and 25 RBIs in 18 day games this season.

This is a cheap price to lay considering the pitching matchup. Madison Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he's fresh having pitched just twice during the last 16 days.

The Giants are 20-6 in Bumgarner's last 26 road games.

Opposing Bumgarner is washed-up journeyman Jason Marquis, whose 3-2 record is deceiving. Marquis has a 5.66 ERA and is not a good fit for homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. Making matters worse for Marquis is his ground ball ratio is the lowest since 2006. 

Don't be fooled by Jared Weaver's last start, which was his first shutout since 2012. Weaver is past his prime and that victory against Houston came at the price of throwing a season-high 120 pitches. Weaver hadn't thrown more than 98 pitches all season until then. 
Even with that victory, Weaver still has a 4.38 ERA and the Angels have lost in seven of his last nine starts. Weaver's fastball didn't exceed 88 mph and his last two road starts have been brutal - 11 runs and 16 hits, including four homers - in 12 innings against the A's and Giants. Those poor numbers were put up in pitcher's parks, too. Now he faces the Orioles at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. 
The Angels haven't played a game that was out of West Coast time since April 20. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games at Baltimore and Weaver is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA during his last five starts at Camden Yards. 
Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen hasn't allowed more than three earned runs during any of his last six starts. The Orioles are 22-8 in Chen's last 30 home starts. They also are 16-4 in Chen's past 20 starts versus AL West opponents and 8-1 when he pitches on five day's rest. 

Forget that the Hawks went 60-22 during the regular season and Mike Budenholzer was named coach of the year. 
The Hawks aren't any better than the Wizards right now and Budenholzer isn't coaching any better than Randy Wittman, who I regard as one of the weaker playoff coaches. 
Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Hawks were lucky to win 82-81 at home two nights ago in Game 5 after they blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead. They are 1-5-1 ATS following a victory. 
Washington is 5-0-1 ATS the past six times after a loss. The Wizards are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record and 12-3-2 ATS during their last 17 overall games. 
The Wizards have matured and are better than a year ago when they fell at home in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference to the top-seeded Pacers and were eliminated. Washington is 3-1 at Verizon Center in the postseason this year compared to 1-4 during the playoffs last season. John Wall and Bradley Beal are better than they were a year. The Wizards didn't have veteran Paul Pierce last season and Otto Porter wasn't making major contributions like he is now in his much improved second season.
Wall played for the first time in four games in Game 5. He was rusty, but still put up 15 points and seven assists while learning to adjust with a broken non-shooting hand. Wall should be more effective in today's game.
The Hawks struggled to get past the Nets in the first round. They have yet to put together a solid four-quarter game, are on the road and have a disadvantage on the boards and at point guard with Wall returning for Washington. That's enough to get the Wizards a Game 6 victory.   

All five games of this series have gone over the total. Now we have the highest total of the series in this Game 6.
This is the time to play contrarian and go under the total.
True, these teams are about offense and the Rockets have played terrible defense.
But I see this game playing out differently. The Clippers could be tight in the role of huge home favorite with all the pressure on them to close out the Rockets right here.
The Rockets have better defenders than perceived. The key for Houston - which it executed in Game 5 - is ball movement. The Rockets should be super intense defensively and patient on offense looking to work their inside-outside game. So I'm expecting a slower tempo than normal between these two clubs.

At this short price, I'll lay the Mets in a pitching matchup of Matt Harvey versus journeyman Jason Hammel.
Harvey has proved he can overcome Tommy John surgery. The Mets are 5-1 in Harvey's six starts this season. Harvey has a 2.72 ERA and is pitching on five day's rest, which is the best scenario for him. Harvey has given up just two runs in 15 2/3 innings this season when pitching on his normal five day's rest.
The 32-year-old Hammel is a backend of the rotation type starter with a 3.52 ERA. He hasn't faced the Mets since 2011, but has a career 6.33 lifetime ERA versus them in four career starts.

Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots.
Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left.
Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars.
The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play.
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out.
I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.  

No fancy handicap here. Just that this game is being played at Great American Ball Park, one of the best hitter's park in the majors and is the stadium where the most homers have been hit this season.
Oh, yes, the pitching matchup is Eric Stults versus Raisel Iglesias.
Stults is strictly a No. 5 type starter who is lucky to be in a rotation, while Iglesias is a minor league converted reliever not ready for prime time yet.
There's a slight wind blowing in and slated home plate umpire Corey Blaser has a slightly wide strike zone, but nothing to keep from believing these two teams can't put up at least four runs apiece.

I'm not about to write Chris Sale off after two bad starts. The southpaw star has his velocity up he just has been uncharacteristically wild. This is his first start since returning from a five-game suspension following an April 23 brawl against the Royals. Sale has never had three consecutive non-quality starts.

So he's had ample time to harness his control and work on his mechanics. He's facing a Brewers team that has the third most losses in the majors and is batting .208 versus lefties.

Sale is extremely tough on teams unfamiliar with him. He's 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven career interleague starts. The Brewers last faced him in 2012.

Milwaukee starter Mike Fiers has a 5.46 ERA and been plagued by walks averaging a walk per inning. His WHIP is 1.72. Fiers has surrendered four homers and 12 walks during his last four starts spanning 19 innings.

The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close.
It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries.
Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

Oakland is nine games below .500, off to its worst start since 1999.
But the A's are better than their record. They've played 20 of their first 33 games on the road and have a 1-10 record in one-run games.
Now Oakland is home and catching the Red Sox, who are 6-21 during their past 27 games in Oakland. Boston starter Rick Porcello has a 5.25 road ERA this season. Porcello was 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in six career starts at Oakland when he pitched for Detroit.
Oakland starter Scott Kazmir hasn't given up a run in 14 innings at home this season. The lefty has pitched well for most of the season, excluding his last start at Minnesota. The A's are 7-2 the past nine times Kazmir has faced a foe with a losing record. Boston has dropped 14 of its past 19 road games when going against a lefty.
The A's could pick up additional edges against Boston having just acquired former Red Sox relief pitcher Edward Mujica two days ago.

Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up.
Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games.  
Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team.
Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either.
Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3.
The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum.  
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams.
The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.

Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness?
Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life.
Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender.
Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks.
The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs.  
Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points.
Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities.
These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games.
So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.



 
 
 

The Royals are a stunning 15-4 the past 19 times they've been a road underdog, which is the case here.
The pitching matchup is Chris Young versus Shane Greene. Young is 3-0 lifetime against the Tigers with a 1.41 ERA. He has a 2.08 ERA at Comerica Park, which is well suited for his game since he's a fly ball pitcher. Young faced the Tigers just 10 days ago and didn't give up a hit in five innings.
Greene, on the other hand, is in terrible form having allowed 20 runs and 23 hits during his past three starts spanning just 11 innings. 

This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it.
Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory?
No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors.
The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played.
The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests.
Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.  

 

The zigs and zags of trying to master the NBA playoffs just don't come when playing sides. Totals also have to be considered.
The Rockets-Clippers have gone Over in both games of their series. Now we come to Game 3 where the total is the highest of the series - at least five points higher than it was in Game 1.
There were 224 points scored in the last game. The Rockets set a franchise record in free throw attempts at 64 and in free throws made with 42 during the last game.
Look for things to unfold different here. The Clippers aren't likely to have Chris Paul. Without Paul the pace gets slower. If Paul sits out the Clippers are hurt offensively. Austin Rivers played decently in place of Paul, but he's far from Paul. Very far. If Paul plays he'll be severely hobbled, which also will mean a slower pace.
The Clippers probably wouldn't mind a slower tempo anyways since they have been playing every other day since the third game of the Spurs series. Blake Griffin especially looked gassed at the end of Game 2.
Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan are two of the best - if not the best - defensive big men. Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are solid defenders, too, even though the Rockets are perceived as being weak defensively.
Jamal Crawford is cold missing 26 of 40 shots from the field in the series. The Clippers count on Crawford's scoring off the bench.
The Clippers' defensive intensity should really be up after last game and compensating for Paul. The under has cashed eight of the past 10 times when the Clippers have lost in their last game.

The Cavaliers won their must-win home game on Wednesday. But now the scene shifts to Chicago - and things change.
Cleveland jumped out fast on Chicago in Game 2, but were outscored 73-68 during the final three quarters. I highly doubt the Cavaliers are going to get off to a similar fast start on the road.
Kevin Love is out for Cleveland. J.R. Smith returns from suspension. But how effective will the gunner be when he hasn't played in nearly two weeks? He's going to be very rusty. Rookie Cleveland coach David Blatt also now has to figure out what to do with both Smith and Iman Shumpert, who has played well in this series but also is dealing with a groin injury.
I have far more confidence in Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau than I do Blatt, who seems intimidated by James. The Cavaliers didn't seem to have great chemistry in that Game 2 victory. It was all James. Relying on a single superstar isn't always the best playoff formula especially when on the road. James took 29 shots from the floor during Game 2. Kyrie Irving had only nine shots from the field. This isn't the best example of team basketball.
The Bulls had a poor shooting game. Normally reliable Pau Gasol was just 3-for-8 from the field. Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler were a combined 11-for-34 shooting from the floor. Rose didn't get to the free throw line once during the two games in Cleveland. That's not likely to be the case at United Center, where the Bulls have won nine of the last 10 times.  
 

San Francisco is playing better winning five of its last six. The Giants have been home since the start of the month and catch the Marlins flying from the East Coast to the West Coast after losing to the Nationals on Wednesday afternoon. This is the first time all season the Marlins are switching time zones.
Miami also has lost seven of its last 10 road games. San Francisco has won eight of its last nine home games.
The pitching matchup pits a pair of veterans - Dan Haren versus Tim Hudson. I like Hudson especially at home. San Francisco is 7-1 during Hudson's past eight home starts versus sub .500 opponents. The Marlins are 2-7 in their last nine road games when going against a right-hander.
Hudson has given up three runs or less in four of his five starts. He is 15-4 lifetime versus the Marlins.
Haren has a fancy 2.70 ERA, but he's been extremely lucky having one of the highest strand rates in the league. He's surrendered six homers in 30 innings.
Haren's last good year was 2011. His ERA during the past three seasons are 4.33, 4.67 and 4.02. He's clearly been on the decline and is due to get hit hard.

The Indians and Corey Kluber are taking heat because Cleveland is 0-6 in Kluber's last six starts. But Kluber has pitched better than his record. He has one of the lowest run support averages as the Indians have scored barely two runs per game for him this season.
There's nothing wrong with the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Look for the Indians and Kluber to get back to winning in this game. Kluber went 2-1 versus the Royals last year with a 1.15 ERA in four starts.
The Indians have gotten over their early-season hitting slump averaging 5.9 runs during their past dozen games.
The Royals are going with journeyman Edison Volquez, who has fared worst against the Indians than any other team with a lifetime 12.19 ERA.
The Indians have won during five of their past six games in Kansas City.

Mike Fiers looks back on track. So do the Brewers, who are 2-1 under new manager Craig Counsell.
Fiers had a rough April, but has won this last three appearances against the Dodgers giving up two runs in 16 2/3 innings during this span. Fiers was sharp in his last start winning 6-1 against the Cubs on the road this past Saturday. He gave up one run on three hits in six innings with 12 strikeouts.
The Brewers have two of their regulars back in the lineup - Carlos Gomez and Scooter Gennett - while the Dodgers are minus outfielders Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford.
Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is expected to rest several Dodgers regulars today, too, possibly Adrian Gonzalez and middle infielders Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick.
Carlos Frias, a converted reliever, is starting for the Dodgers. He's only in LA's rotation because of several injuries. The Brewers faced Frias three times last season when Frias was a relief pitcher. Milwaukee scored five runs off him in six innings.

The Brewers are getting healthy with Carlos Gomez and Scotter Gennett back in the lineup. Morale is better, too, with a switch in managers. Ron Roenicke had run his course in Milwaukee. Craig Counsell brings new life.
The Dodgers are minus injured outfielders Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford. They also have a vulnerable bullpen with closer Kenley Jansen out and are down two starting pitchers. That means a rare start for Joe Wieland, who had a 7.15 ERA in two starts for the Padres last season.
I like Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta much better than Wieland. Peralta has pitched better than his statistics may indicate. He's had the lowest run-support of any qualifying starter.

Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith.
But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.
Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays.
I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots.
The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest.
This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.

Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here.
Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent.
Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line.
John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague.  
Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday.
The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game.
It's time to face that reality.

Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1.
The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James.
Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James.
Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience.  
I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah.    
Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.  

Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game.
The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared.  
Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder.
Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team.
This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1.

Two below average starting pitchers and two suspect bullpens make this a strong over play especially considering the quality of the offenses.
The Diamondbacks rank in the top 12 in batting average and runs scored. The Dodgers have socked 35 homers, most in the majors. They also rank in the top seven in runs and batting average.
LA has played 13 home games and in 69 percent of those games at least nine or more runs have been scored with the Dodgers producing five or more runs in nine of their last 10 home contests. Only Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati - a home run haven - has produced more homers per game than Dodger Stadium in the National League this year.
The over is 18-6-2 in LA's last 26 home games.  
The Dodgers have outstanding outfield depth enough to overcome Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford being out. LA also has increased its infield power and gets to face Jeremy Hellickson. In the last three years, Hellickson's ERA has been 5.17, 4.52 and 5.24 this season courtesy of three of four bad outings. The high ceiling isn't there anymore for Hellickson. He is who he is - a bottom of the rotation type starter for a bad team.  
Arizona, though, should get its share of runs squaring off against journeyman Scott Baker, pitching for his third team in three years. Baker has won just three times since 2011. The pitching-starved Rangers didn't want Baker back after he compiled a 5.47 ERA in 80 innings of work last year.
Baker shouldn't be in any major league team's rotation. He landed with the Dodgers because LA is without Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu.  

The Spurs are averaging 104.6 points during the last five games of this series. The Clippers are averaging 107.4 points in the series if you discount their Game 3 performance.
I'm expecting that scoring to keep up especially in this Game 7. Overtime is a possibility with such a short spread and there could be extra fouling during the end game with the loser being eliminated in what I consider to be the highest-caliber first-round playoff series in NBA history.
The Clippers have their confidence up after upsetting the Spurs on the road in Game 6. The prideful defending champions, though, won't go quietly. The over has cashed seven of the past eight times San Antonio lost in its previous game.
Los Angeles was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA while ranking third in 3-point shooting percentage. Yet the Clippers have missed 18 of their last 23 shots from beyond the arc. They are due to shoot much better.
There's another factor that could have positive ramifications for an over. Clippers reserve forward Glen Davis is questionable with a sprained ankle. If he can't go it would mean minutes for Hedo Turkoglu and Spencer Hawes, who are inferior defensively to Davis but much better offensively.
 

The White Sox should be extra aroused for this game after suffering their worst loss of the season on Thursday to the Twins. That 12-2 embarrassment came with ace Chris Sale on the mound, too. 

Chicago is the superior team and has the right pitching matchup going with Jose Quintana facing Kyle Gibson. 

Quintana is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his last six starts against Minnesota.

Gibson has failed to achieve any consistency in his career so far. He pitched well against Seattle this past Sunday holding the Mariners to two runs in seven plus innings. The Twins are 3-15 in Gibson's last 18 starts following a quality start. 

Fatigue is setting in as the Hawks-Nets head into today's Game 6. Atlanta played its starters a lot of minutes in Game 5, while Brook Lopez is hitting the wall for Brooklyn. The Nets' inside scoring takes a tremendous hit if Lopez isn't on his game.
Neither team played as well as they are capable of on defense during the last game, yet the total barely nudged over.
I don't see the teams combining to reach 200 points this time around with a fatigue factor, expected better defense as the intensity sinks in and the half-court slowdown styles.
Banged-up Deron Williams tumbled back to Earth in Game 5 scoring just five points on 2-of-8 shooting from the floor after scoring a highly surprising 35 points in Game 4.

Much is made of the Orioles losing a home game because of the unrest going on in Baltimore. Technically, the Orioles are the home team here, but the game is being played in Tampa. However, the Rays are disrupted, too. They had to unexpectedly fly back from the East Coast being in the middle of a road trip.
The Orioles draw right-hander Alex Colome, who is making his season debut after being out with pneumonia. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles club averaging 8.4 runs in their last five games and has won three in a row. Baltimore is 39-16 (71 percent) the past 55 times it has faced a right-hander when batting last. 
The Orioles have also won Chris Tillman's last four starts against Tampa Bay. Tillman has a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts versus the Rays. He beat Tampa Bay, 6-2, when he previously pitched in St. Petersburg opening day of this season giving up one run in 6 2/3 innings. 

I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA.
The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead.
The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games.

 NFL Draft Props 
Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1
At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected.
Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons.
There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12.
The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.

More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1
I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20.
Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs.
Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.

This price is higher than I normally like to lay with a favorite, but the lopsided pitching matchup and how poorly Texas is playing makes it justified.
Felix Hernandez is the best right-hander in baseball. He very well could have won the Cy Young Award last season and is off to fast start this year with a 3-0 mark and 1.61 ERA. He's held opposing hitters to a .175 batting average in four starts. He defeated the Rangers, 3-1, 11 days ago striking out 12 while allowing just two hits in seven innings.
Seattle has won 74 percent of the past 31 games Hernandez has started.
Texas is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Rangers have scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games. Prince Fielder is 0-for-14 lifetime against Hernandez. Shin-soo Chin is batting a major league worst .096 and has struck out 13 of the 36 times he's faced Hernandez. Mitch Moreland is out with an elbow injury.
The Rangers have suffered injuries to their starting pitching rotation so they've been forced to recycle over-the-hill Wandy Rodriguez,. who hasn't won in two years.
The Mariners have extra punch to their lineup this season with the additions of Nelson Cruz and Richie Weeks. Cruz is batting close to .400 during his last 16 games. He's batting .347 lifetime against his former team, the Rangers.




 

Forget the Nets' 120-115 overtime victory two nights ago. There is not going to be 235 points scored in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. I don't see the Nets and Hawks combining to break 200.
This isn't Western Conference playoff basketball. It's an Eastern Conference matchup between two, slow, patient and methodical teams. Only six teams have a better defensive efficiency rating than Atlanta. Brooklyn has been frustrating the Hawks. So the Nets aren't suddenly going to play up-tempo when they know the Hawks have struggled in half-court.
Brooklyn averaged 91.3 points in the first three games of the series. Atlanta averaged 92.6 points during the first three contests. That's a combined 183.9 points per game for three of the first four games.
Now the defensive intensity is increased several notches with the series becoming a best two-of-three. There are fatigue issues at this point, too, following Monday's overtime game.
The Nets are plain bad. Deron Williams is too past his prime and banged-up to have a game for the ages like he did on Monday.
The Hawks aren't playing well and have lost their swagger. Until Game 4, the Hawks were shooting less than 40 percent from the field. The Hawks are a jump shooting team - and their jump shooters have lost their confidence and way.

Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here.
The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match.
Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home.
Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point.
Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game.
Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can  beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.

The Padres have yet to lose in James Shields' four starts with them. Hitters are batting .215 against Shields this season. Now the Padres face the Astros, who are playing well with a hot pitcher in Collin McHugh.
McHugh, though, didn't fare nearly so well when he pitched in the National League going 4-17 with a 5.36 ERA. Now he faces an NL club that his team, which used to be in the National League, has a bad history against.
Houston is 2-9 in its last 11 games at San Diego, batting under .200 while averaging 2.1 runs during this span. San Diego is 6-1 the past seven times hosting the Astros.
Shields has a strong history against the Astros, too, with a 1.74 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 31 innings during four career starts versus Houston.
I give the Padres the advantage here and the price is certainly low enough to get involved with them.

Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday.

Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right. 

The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor. 

The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games. 

Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis.  

Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home.
Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points.
These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor.
I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series.
San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row.
Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3.

Trevor Cahill is a bottom of the rotation starter, but I'm not buying the Phillies as a favorite especially when they are starting journeyman Jerome Williams.
The Braves are rebuilding, but they still are above .500 and should be  back on track after halting a four-game losing streak with a 5-2 win against the Phillies on Saturday.
The right-handed Cahill has struggled more against righties this season and five of the Phillies' top six offensive players bat left-handed. Philadelphia has lost 17 of the past 22 times it has faced a right-handed starter.
Cahill doesn't have to be Cy Young to tame a weak Philadelphia offense that ranks last in runs and is in the bottom three in batting average and homers. The Phillies are in bad form even by their lowly standards scoring five runs in their last four games while batting .214 during this span. They have dropped 10 of their past 13 games.
Williams is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA in his last four starts versus Atlanta. He's not better than Cahill.
The Braves have also won seven of the past nine times in Philadelphia.

I'm not a fan of Colby Lewis nor C.J. Wilson. Both have bad histories against their respective opponents here. It's also a golden spot for Albert Pujols to break out of his season-long slump and for Mike Trout to get hot again.
Lewis went 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in four starts against the Angels last season. Lewis is 35 and past his prime. Lewis has a 3.79 ERA - and that's with a high strand rate. Opponents are batting .282 against him in three starts. Pujols is 7-for-15 lifetime against Lewis with two homers while Trout has a six-game hitting streak against Texas going 10-for-19 during this span. Trout is batting .400 with two homers during his last 15 at-bats against Lewis.
Wilson hasn't fared well versus his old team. He's 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA versus Texas in eight starts. He faced Texas five times last season and posted a hideous 8.76 ERA.
The weather forecast calls for winds of 10-12 mph blowing out to right field.