Rocketmansports.net - Free Picks from Expert Hanidcappers

Become a Facebook Fan!

Follow Me on Twitter!

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-31-21	Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5	Top	120-113	Loss	-102	13 h 26 m	Show
After getting a split in Utah, the Grizzlies lost, 121-111, at home this past Saturday to fall behind the Jazz two games to one in their playoff series. So this really becomes a must-win spot for the Grizzlies because a loss sends them to Utah down 3-1 in the series. I trust the Grizzlies to get that win, if not hang very close in this Game 4. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Jazz in Game 3, including holding a nine-rebound advantage on the offensive boards. But the Grizzlies couldn't withstand Utah's hot 49.4 shooting from the floor. The Jazz scored 18 more points from 3-point range and 10 more points from the free throw line, getting 13 more free throw opportunities. Memphis had good looks at the basket. The Grizzlies were just cold, unlike Utah. I expect the Grizzlies to shoot better. The Jazz haven't been able to stop Ja Morant. I also expect the Jazz to score fewer points. Until that loss two days ago, Memphis had held its past five opponents at home to an average of 105.2 points. That would rank No. 2 in the NBA if that were a season average. Memphis has covered 71 percent the last 14 times it has been an underdog. The Grizzlies also have covered five of the past six times they were a home 'dog.
05-31-21	Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers		4-9	Loss	-128	12 h 6 m	Show
Jack Flaherty isn't getting enough respect here. I don't know if he can outduel Trevor Bauer on the road, but I'll lay a price to take 1 1/2 runs on the run line and find out because I do expect a low-scoring game. So does the oddsmaker with this short total. Flaherty is an elite pitcher with the record to back it up - 8-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He has a 1.08 lifetime ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers with 36 strikeouts in 25 innings. The Cardinals enter this matchup winning four of their last five games. The Dodgers are on a three-game losing streak after just concluding a four-game series against their arch-rival the Giants. Bauer is an elite pitcher, too. But he has a 5.56 ERA in two career starts against St. Louis.
05-31-21	Angels v. Giants -130	Top	1-6	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
Because of having the worst bullpen ERA in the majors and being a below average defensive team, especially without Mike Trout, the Angels need strong starting pitching. They haven't been getting that from Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a whopping 15.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants faced Bundy last August and he couldn't reach the fifth inning giving up two homers in an 8-2 loss. The Giants have been a major surprise with the second-best record in the National League and third-best overall mark. San Francisco is a strong 22-7 as home chalk. The Giants hold bullpen, defense and starting pitching edges with Johnny Cueto on the mound to oppose the cold Bundy. Cueto isn't an ace anymore, but he's a dependable middle-of-the-rotation starter with a lifetime 1.35 ERA against the Angels in four starts, including a 7-2 win against them last Aug.
05-30-21	Clippers -3 v. Mavs	Top	106-81	Win	100	20 h 34 m	Show
The Clippers were in deep trouble of not only getting swept by the Mavericks, but also becoming a national joke trailing 2-0 in the series and down by 19 points on the road in Game 3. But the Clippers got it together and won Game 3, 118-108 this past Friday. This doesn't mean the series is over. However, the momentum has shifted. The Clippers have figured things out and I do see them winning Game 4. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are living up to their superstar labels averaging 34.3 points and 26.7 points, respectively. Luka Doncic is a monster for Dallas. The rest of the Mavericks I don't trust, including Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 1 and made an unbelievable 58.5 percent of their shots from the floor in Game 2. They only are an average scoring team. So those games weren't normal. The Clippers are the No. 4 defensive team in the NBA. They ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Dallas shot 44.2 percent from the field in Game 3. The Mavericks made 47 percent of their field goals during the regular season. They are not a 50 percent shooting team especially against an upper tier defense. Dallas has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has hosted the Clippers.
05-30-21	Cardinals -112 v. Diamondbacks		2-9	Loss	-112	6 h 4 m	Show
Once again the price is right to fade the Diamondbacks, who have lost 13 in a row and 23 of their last 27 games. The Diamondbacks continue to display bad pitching, bad defense and untimely defense. The pitching matchup favors St. Louis, too. Kwang-Hyun Kim has a 3.09 ERA. Kim doesn't go too many innings, but he's proven tough to score against. Arizona is pitching Matt Peacock, who has a 4.91 ERA. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games at Arizona.
05-30-21	Angels v. A's OVER 8.5		4-2	Loss	-105	8 h 29 m	Show
Oakland has scored four or more runs in 10 of its last 15 games. Now the A's get to face Jose Quintana. Quintana hasn't been good for the past four years and he's been terrible this season with an 0-3 record and 7.92 ERA. That ERA skyrockets up to 12.54 if you count only his road performances. The Angels also have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.13. Cole Irvin starts for the A's. He began the year fast, but is in a slump now yielding nine runs and 18 hits in his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. Sunday Free Play White Sox minus 1 1/2 minus $1.19 (run line) hosting Orioles Looking to go against the Orioles? The line starts on the left and it's blocks long. I'm going to skip in front, though, by laying 1 1/2 runs with the White Sox against the Orioles on the run line. Baltimore has lost 12 in a row with 10 of those defeats occurring by more than one run. Here's another thing: The pitching matchup is Lucas Giolito versus Keegan Akin, who happens to be left-handed. The White Sox are 12-3 facing southpaw starters this season. That impressive mark goes up to a mind-boggling 25-3 if you go back to last year. Giolito is one of the better pitchers in the American League. He has 23 strikeouts in his last 20 innings and is backed by a White Sox bullpen that has the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.22. Baltimore has managed just 15 runs in its last six games, an average of 2.5 runs. Akin will be making his first start of the season. He had a 4.56 ERA in eight games, including six starts, as a rookie last season. The White Sox are hitting an American League-best .279 versus lefties. They rank No. 1 in the majors against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS. Akin doesn't figure to get any help from a Baltimore relief corps that has the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.07.
05-29-21	Cardinals -134 v. Diamondbacks		7-4	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
Even at 39, Adam Wainwright can come up with a gem. He did last Sunday against the Cubs holding them to one hit and one walk in eight scoreless innings. But starting pitching isn't the main reason I'm getting behind the Cardinals here even though the Diamondbacks are pitching Seth Frankoff, who has a 7.27 ERA. I just want to keep fading the Diamondbacks. They've lost 12 in a row and 15 of their past 16. They are the worst team in the National League. The lay price isn't too crazy either in which to go against Arizona.
05-29-21	Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5	Top	95-115	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
This series is three games old and all three games have gone Over. Now we have our first daytime start. That's a plus for the Under because of the unfamiliarity. But the main reason why I'm going Under is pace. The tempo hasn't been fast. The shooting has been outstanding, though. It looked for sure that Game 3 was going Under. But there were more than 50 points scored during the last six minutes of the Nuggets' 120-115 victory Thursday, including 29 during the final 2:29. The Nuggets shot a blazing 20-of-38 from 3-point range for 53 percent. Journeyman Austin Rivers was on fire. I understand these teams have superstars. But only seven teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Nuggets, who also were No. 1 in defensive rebounding. The Trail Blazers aren't a good defensive team, but their intensity should be sky high after falling behind 2-1 in the series with Thursday's home loss. Portland also doesn't have to contend with Nuggets star Jamal Murray. I just don't see a hot-shooting game again here and that's what is needed to make this one go Over.
05-28-21	Nets -7.5 v. Celtics		119-125	Loss	-108	15 h 40 m	Show
Forget any zig-zag theory. The Celtics don't have it this year. They are a dead team. They can't stay within single digits of the powerhouse Nets. Brooklyn was flat in Game 1 yet still won by 11 points. Then the Nets built a 24-point halftime lead in Game 2 and won by 22 points. James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant didn't even need to play major minutes. The only player Boston really trusts is Jayson Tatum with Jaylen Brown out. Tatum could be pressing. He's hit just 9-of-32 shots from the floor. Then in Tuesday's Game 2 Tatum had to leave the game after getting poked in the eye. He'll play here, but he may not be 100 percent.
05-28-21	Padres +104 v. Astros	Top	10-3	Win	104	16 h 6 m	Show
Dinelson Lamet and Framber Valdez are promising young pitchers, who are coming back from injuries. Lamet has shown more upside and is further along than southpaw Valdez. I think it's wrong that Lamet and the Padres opened as underdogs. Lamet finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season. He's 1-0 with a 1.64 in five appearances this season. He's yet to pitch more than three innings because the Padres are being extremely careful with him. Lamet could start to get stretched out beginning with this game. Valdez is making his first start of 2021. He's probably going to be on a pitch count. Valdez was 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA last season. San Diego has won the last four times it has faced a lefty starter. The Padres have been red-hot winning 11 of their last 13 games. Houston is 1-4 in its last five games. This is just the second series of the season where the Padres get to use a DH. They swept the Rangers three games in their first road series against an AL opponent.
05-28-21	Knicks v. Hawks -4		94-105	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
The Hawks have been able to bottle up Julius Randle, but the Knicks haven't been able to stop Trae Young. The result is the Hawks got a 1-1 split in New York Now this playoff series scene shifts to Atlanta where the Hawks have been the hottest home team in the NBA with 11 straight victories. Atlanta has won 19 of its last 21 home contests and has covered 72 percent of its past 32 home games. The Hawks will have their first capacity crowd of 21,000 against the Knicks for the first time since COVID-19 limitations were put in place. Randle, the Knicks' best player, has missed 28 of 39 shots from the floor. Young is averaging 31 points in the series and has made 22 of 43 shots from the field for 51 percent while also dishing off 17 assists. Young is streaky and right now he's hot and has his confidence. Now he's home where the Hawks have covered 16 of the last 21 times as a home favorite.
05-28-21	Knicks v. Hawks OVER 211		94-105	Loss	-107	13 h 2 m	Show
I see the Hawks coming out aggressive in full attack mode after settling for too many outside shots in a 101-92 road loss to the Knicks this past Wednesday. Atlanta is much stronger at home. The Hawks shoot 47.5 from the floor and 38.4 percent from 3-point range at home compared to 46 percent and 36.2 percent on the road. The Hawks are averaging 123.8 points during their last six home games. They didn't face defenses as tough as the Knicks, but still that's an impressive recent figure. Trae Young is shooting 51 percent from the floor, averaging 31 points in the series. The Knicks haven't been able to slow him down. Young also is averaging 8.5 assists. Julius Randle, on the other hand, is having a bad series and due for a breakout game. The Knicks shot only 38 percent from the floor two days ago yet still managed to score 101 points. The tempo should pick up with the change in venue and so should Randle's 28 percent field goal shooting accuracy.
05-27-21	Suns +7 v. Lakers	Top	95-109	Loss	-100	20 h 4 m	Show
LeBron James is fine. Chris Paul is not. Paul's playing almost with just one arm because of a shoulder injury. Despite this, I like the Suns to cover this Game 3 margin. The Lakers often are overpriced at home. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Suns didn't achieve the NBA's second-best record by not overcoming some adversity and by not being resilient. They deserve more respect. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS following a loss and has covered seven of the past nine times when taking points on the road. Paul was ineffective because of his injury when the Lakers evened the series at 1-1 by defeating the Suns, 109-102, two days ago. I'm not expecting much now from the 36-year-old Paul. But I do have faith in reserve point guard Cameron Payne. He played well in that Game 2 loss. James and Paul dominate the headlines. Paul isn't the Suns' best player, though. Devin Booker is. He's an emerging superstar. who doesn't get the attention he deserves. Big man Deandre Ayton gives the Suns the fourth-best player on the court next to James, Anthony Davis and Booker. The Lakers have enough superstar greatness and savvy to probably win this series. But there aren't going to be blowout games. The Suns will keep this one close.
05-27-21	Hurricanes v. Predators +125		4-3	Loss	-100	19 h 2 m	Show
To say this is a huge home ice series would be to understate the case. The home team has won the past 11 times! Now it's Nashville's turn to host Carolina. The Predators have won 13 of their last 16 home contests, including both Stanley Cup games at Bridgestone Arena against Carolina. The Predators are in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. They should get a huge boost from more than 12,000 spectators allowed into the arena and from the return of veteran forward Victor Arvidsson, who has missed the past couple of games with an upper body injury. Carolina has lost the last four times it has played on the road. The past three games all have been decided in overtime. Given the closeness of the series and Nashville having home ice, I'll certainly accept a plus price on the home 'dog.
05-27-21	Cardinals -121 v. Diamondbacks		5-4	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
Sooner or later, the Diamondbacks will win a game. They've lost by two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. But the bottom line right now is Arizona has dropped 19 of its last 22 games, including the past 10. This is the Diamondbacks' longest losing skid in 11 years. So as long as the lay price is manageable, which it is here, I'm going to fade Arizona. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez is having a solid season. He's held four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He holds a career 2.51 ERA versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks are going with Matt Peacock, who is making only his third big league start.
05-26-21	Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 218		129-141	Win	100	15 h 11 m	Show
Despite subpar shooting from both teams, the Grizzlies and Jazz still put up a combined 221 points in Memphis' 112-109 upset win this past Sunday. The Grizzlies shot 45 percent from the floor, which is below their season average. Utah shot a cold 42 percent from the field. The Jazz shot 46.8 percent from the floor during the regular season while being the fourth-highest scoring team in the league at 116.4 points a game. The Jazz had trouble containing strong wing players in the postseason last year and they had problems with Ja Morant, who shot 11 of 21 from the field and scored 26 points. But even more alarming for the Jazz was the lack of defensive inside help for Rudy Gobert. Memphis scored 62 points in the paint. That's not a fluke. The Grizzlies are a great offensive rebounding team with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis is just an average defensive team. So I'm looking for the Jazz to score a lot more than they did in Game 1 especially with Donovan Mitchell set to make his playoff debut. Only 10 players scored more points per game than Mitchell this season. Even if Mitchell is rusty, his presence frees up sharpshooters Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles while making Gobert more dangerous in the low post. The last six games between the two teams played in Utah have all gone Over.
05-26-21	Royals v. Rays -1.5	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	16 h 4 m	Show
The Rays have been the best team during the past couple of weeks winning 11 in a row through Monday with the last nine of those victories coming by more than one run. The Royals halted that streak with a 2-1 victory on Tuesday. But with Tyler Glasnow on the mound Wednesday, I'm fully expecting the Rays to get back to their winning form in convincing fashion. Glasnow is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA. He's been absolutely dominant at home with a 2.20 ERA and a 44-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Glasnow should easily handle a below-average Kansas City offense that struck out 13 times against Rich Hill on Tuesday. The Royals rank 19th in runs and 28th in homers. Mike Minor draws the start for Kansas City. After some promising seasons in Atlanta, Minor has turned into a journeyman. The Royals are the third team he's been on during the last two years. Minor's ERA was well above 5.00 last season and it's 5.14 this year. His strikeout numbers have dropped and his WHIP has gone up. He's now just an innings-eater at best. The Rays rank among the top nine in runs and homers. The Rays have won 57 of their last 84 home games for 68 percent playing their games in quirky Tropicana Field with it's lightning fast astroturf and weird stadium dimensions. It's a tough adjustment for the opposition. The Royals have lost 12 of the past 15 times when playing on astroturf and are 5-14 in their last 19 meetings against Tampa Bay, including going 2-6 during their past eight games at Tropicana Field.
05-25-21	Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 216.5	Top	127-121	Loss	-109	18 h 5 m	Show
The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor while also sinking 17 of 36 3-pointers for 47 percent. There were a combined 50 free throws. Yet the Mavericks and Clippers still went Under 217 1/2 in the Mavericks' 113-103 Game 1 victory. Now the total has opened a point shorter for this Game 2 matchup. Under still is the way to go. I expect the Clippers to tighten their defense, not giving the Mavericks nearly as many open looks as they did in Game 1. Luka Doncic was held to one point during the fourth quarter because the Clippers decided to fully concentrate on him forcing the rest of the Dallas players to beat them from the perimeter - which they did. I don't see the Mavericks repeating their outside shooting. LA gave up the fourth-fewest points during the regular season, while ranking sixth in 3-point defense. Kawhi Leonard is one of the premier defensive players in the NBA. Tempo is huge in handicapping a total. The Mavericks-Clippers Game 1 had the slowest pace of any playoff game. It took exceptional shooting by the Mavericks and a larger than expected number of free throws to even get it close to the projected total.
05-25-21	Cardinals +130 v. White Sox	Top	3-8	Loss	-100	19 h 6 m	Show
Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito are heavyweight pitchers. But I'm siding with Flaherty especially in the rare role as an underdog. Flaherty is a solid Cy Young candidate being 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. The White Sox dominated against lefty starters, but are just 17-16 versus righthanded starters. Giolito has a 4.35 ERA this season, although he has been pitching better. This will be his third career start against St. Louis. He's allowed eight runs of which seven were earned in 11 1/3 innings against the Cardinals. Giolito has to deal with a hot Nolan Arenado, who has four homers and eight RBI's during his last 10 games. He's 3-for-3 lifetime lifetime versus Giolito. Tuesday Free Play Red Sox plus $1.09 hosting Braves The Red Sox have been a tremendous money-maker as an underdog winning 14 of the past 17 times in that role. They opened as a slight 'dog hosting the Braves in a pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Garrett Richards. Morton has a 4.60 ERA. His road ERA is 4.41. He's surrendered a home run in six of his last seven starts. This could prove significant because the Red Sox are nearly as powerful as the Braves. Atlanta leads the majors with 78 homers after smacking 15 of them during their recently concluded four-game series against the hapless Pirates. The Red Sox, however, have hit the second-most homers in the American League with 65. They are the only team that has three players in double figures in homers with Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez. Richards has pitched well very well this month going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA. He's held the opposition to only two homers during his past seven starts.
05-25-21	Maple Leafs v. Canadiens +151		4-0	Loss	-100	10 h 5 m	Show
This is strictly a value play. The Maple Leafs lead the series, 2-1, with two of the outcomes being decided by one goal. Toronto nipped Montreal, 2-1, on the road Monday night. The Canadiens were the clear aggressor, though, in the third period outshooting Toronto, 15-2. The Maple Leafs were able to hold on for dear life. The Canadiens hit a post and came close to scoring on several other occasions. I see the Canadiens keeping up that same pressure since they can't afford a second straight home loss and fall down, 3-1, in the series. Toronto has lost six of the past eight times when playing for the fourth time in six days. I think this line should be more in the pick range so I'll go ahead and take a big plus price.
05-25-21	Celtics v. Nets -9.5		108-130	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
The defense was solid, but the Nets didn't play well offensively shooting just 41.7 percent from the floor in Game 1 against the Celtics. Yet the Nets still are such a superior team they won, 104-93. This was a blown opportunity for the Celtics. Not only could the Celtics not win the game, they couldn't even cover as 8-point 'dogs. It was the first time this season Boston had to face the Nets with James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the lineup together. The Nets never had all three of them versus the Celtics during the regular season when they swept the three meetings winning by an average of 15 points. The Nets also didn't have the huge home crowd support like they have now. More than 14,000 fans should be watching this one at Barclays Center. Boston has failed to cover during its seven visits to the Nets. Brooklyn has covered 13 of the last 16 times it has been favored. Jayson Tatum isn't going to score 50 points, which is what the Celtics need with Jaylen Brown out and Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier proving unreliable. I admire Brad Stevens believing him to be one of the best coaches in the league. But this isn't the Celtics' year. They have regressed very much. Boston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games. The Celtics are outclassed here and haven't shown any tendency that they can meet this huge challenge. So I have no qualms about laying this many points.
05-24-21	Oilers v. Jets OVER 5.5		3-4	Win	100	6 h 9 m	Show
The Oilers could be dead in the water after blowing a 4-1 third period lead against the Jets in a 5-4 overtime loss this past Sunday. That loss put them down 3-0 in the series. But the Oilers aren't going to go playing a tight, conservative game. I'm envisioning another high-scoring matchup. The Over has won eight of the last 11 times the Jets have hosted the Oilers. The Oilers have the superstars, but the Jets have scored four or more goals in four of their last five games.
05-24-21	Heat +4.5 v. Bucks	Top	98-132	Loss	-103	11 h 42 m	Show
The Bucks have been a dominant team for the last several years. But they've always had problems with Miami. The Bucks were fortunate to win Game 1 at home this past Saturday, nipping the Heat, 109-107, on a basket by Khris Middleton with a second left in overtime. The Heat came that close despite Jimmy Butler enduring the worst shooting performance of his career. Bam Adebayo, the Heat's second-best player next to Butler, also had a bad shooting game. Combined they were 8-of-37 from the floor for 22 percent. The Bucks dominated the Heat inside the paint outscoring Miami, 56-24. I highly doubt Butler and Abebayo shoot that bad again and the Heat should be better in the paint, too. The Heat led the NBA in paint defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Expect the Heat to play much better in this Game 2. The Heat will need to hit their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1, but those looks are there for them. The Bucks had the worst 3-point shooting defense in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been favored.
05-24-21	Indians +118 v. Tigers		6-5	Win	118	7 h 23 m	Show
Congrats to Spencer Turnbull on throwing a no-hitter against the Mariners during his last start six days ago. But I'm not buying the Tigers as a favorite against the Indians even in a pitching matchup of lefty Sam Hentges versus Turnbull. The Tigers have a losing record against lefty starters. Cleveland has one of the best bullpens in the majors so Hentges doesn't have to go deep in this game. It's not the worst thing to go against a pitcher after he throws a no-hitter, especially an unlikely one such as Turnbull, who has a terrible history against Cleveland. Turnbull is 0-6 lifetime versus the Indians with a 5.18 ERA in nine appearances. The Indians are batting .325 against him with a .482 slugging percentage. Cleveland is 11-4 the past 15 times going against a righty starter and has won five of the past six times it has been a 'dog.
05-24-21	Rockies v. Mets OVER 6.5		3-2	Loss	-119	7 h 23 m	Show
Even with the Mets having multiple players out and the Rockies being a horrendous road team, this total is too low given the starting pitching matchup of Austin Gomber versus David Peterson. Gomber has a 4.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine starts this year. Peterson has similar below average numbers with a 4.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The Mets still have some respectable batters left in their lineup, including Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith and Jonathan Villar. The Rockies are getting strong seasons from Raimel Tapia and C.J. Cron. They also have proven stars Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon. Colorado is averaging six runs during its last three games.
05-23-21	Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 215.5		112-109	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
It was weird scheduling, but it could be telling. The Grizzlies and Jazz met three times during a span of six days from March 26-31. Utah won all three. The combined final scores totaled 231, 236 and 218 points, all of which are higher than what this total opened. Sure I get that this is playoff basketball now. But I remain unconvinced that defense will be more dominant than offense. Utah is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA at 116.4. The Jazz have reached at least 121 points in four of their last seven games. The Grizzlies are an average at best defensive team. Not only do they have to deal with Rudy Gobert inside and the outside scoring of Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles, but All-Star guard Donovan MItchell and Mike Conley are back healthy now, too. Mitchell hasn't played in more than a month because of an ankle injury, but he's ready now. He's averaging 26.4 points. The Jazz have something to prove after blowing a 3-1 lead to the Nuggets in their playoff series last season. They won't be adverse to running up a score to send out a clear message. The Grizzlies have scorers, too, along with a tremendous playmaker in Ja Morant. Memphis has the wing players to give the Jazz trouble on the defensive end. Note, too, that each of the past five meetings between the two teams has gone Over.
05-23-21	Hawks v. Knicks -116	Top	107-105	Loss	-116	17 h 46 m	Show
The oddsmaker hasn't respected the Knicks all season and he's certainly not respecting them here with such a short line. All the Knicks have done is lead the NBA in defense, win 16 of their last 20 games and cover 18 of their past 23 games (78 percent). New York swept the Hawks in three meetings this season. The Hawks couldn't stop Julius Randle. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its past seven games against the Knicks. The Hawks also have failed to cover in their last five overall away games. The Knicks went 25-11 at home this season. Some 15,000 fans are expected to jam Madison Square Garden to see the Knicks' first playoff game in eight years. That will be the biggest Knicks home crowd in 14 months. It's not like the Hawks have much recent playoff experience either. They last reached the postseason in 2017. Randle is the best all-around player on the court. The Knicks have held their last five opponents to 97 points a game. The Hawks haven't been able to beat the Knicks all season. I don't see that changing in this Game 1 matchup. .
05-23-21	Avalanche v. Blues OVER 5.5		5-2	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
The hot-scoring Avalanche could probably cover this total just by themselves. Colorado has averaged five goals in each of the first three games of this series in building a 3-0 series lead. Colorado is averaging more than five goals a game during their last five games. The Over is 11-2 the past 13 times the Avalanche have been favored in a playoff game. The Avalanche scored five goals this past Friday despite star player Nathan MacKinnon being held scoreless. MacKinnon had accounted for five goals and two assists during the first two games of the series. The Avalanche could be especially deadly given that the Blues may be down three defensemen as Justin Falk, Vince Dunn and Robert Bortuzzo are all questionable-to-doubtful to play because of injuries. The Blues know they can't pull the upset by being in a defensive shell. They fired 32 shots in Game 3 and I expect them to be going all out in their attacks to avoid a home loss and worse, getting swept.
05-23-21	Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5		90-99	Win	100	13 h 60 m	Show
The Lakers aren't going to race past any elite foe. The veteran Lakers are savvy enough to realize the way to beat the upstart Suns is to play slow and ugly. Then, in the end, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will win them the game. James and Davis not only are great offensive players, but outstanding defensive ones, too. That sometimes gets overlooked. LA was the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA this season. The Suns rely on Chris Paul to maintain their tempo and poise. Paul turned 36 a couple of weeks ago. He's been a slowdown point guard for the past few years. The Lakers aren't going to let the Suns run and the Suns don't want to run. So the pace should be slow. Phoenix also has to deal with nerves and a rust factor. The Suns last made the playoffs in 2010. They haven't played in a week. The Under is 7-1 the past eight times the Suns have played following three or more days of rest.
05-22-21	Celtics v. Nets -7.5	Top	93-104	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
The Celtics managed to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth-seed. But don't get fooled. This has been a broken season for Boston. Things aren't suddenly going to get fixed for the Celtics drawing this tough opponent especially with Jalen Brown out. Brooklyn had a dominating season despite rarely having Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the court together. Now all three superstars are healthy at just the right time. The Nets are not a strong defensive club, but their explosiveness factor is off the charts. Brown not only was Boston's second-best player, but he would have been a major defensive help. Marcus Smart can't cover three superstars by himself and underrated Robert Williams isn't 100 percent. The Nets swept the Celitcs winning by a combined 45 points in their three games this season. Not once in any of those matchup were Durant, Harden and Irving all able to play in the same game. Now they can. The Celtics are 5-9 in their last 14 games. Aside from Jayson Tatum, there has been major regression from the past couple of seasons for Boston. The Celtics also have failed to cover during their past six road games against the Nets. The class difference between these two teams is more than single digits, especially when playing in Brooklyn.
05-22-21	Storm -7 v. Wings		100-97	Loss	-106	9 h 47 m	Show
The Wings have played one game all season and that was eight days ago. Allisha Gray led Dallas with 23 points when the Wings rolled past the Sparks. But Gray won't be available to play here because she's training to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team. Seattle is the defending WNBA champion with lots of star power. The Wings are very inexperienced and having this much time off between games is a real negative. The Wings won't have much of a home-court advantage with a reduced-capacity crowd limit of 1,500. Dallas is 1-7 ATS the past eight times as a home 'dog. Seattle has covered seven of the last eight times versus the Wings.
05-22-21	Storm v. Wings UNDER 169		100-97	Loss	-109	9 h 46 m	Show
Dallas is going to be very rusty. The Wings have played only one game this season - and that was back on May 14. The Wings crushed the Sparks, 94-71, led by 23 points from Allisha Gray. The Storm could be the best team in the league and the Wings won't have Gray, who is trying to qualify for the Olympics and is not with the team. The Storm are breaking in some new faces. They could use this game to reduce the minutes of their stars especially with a bigger game on deck at home against Connecticut.
05-22-21	Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8.5		5-7	Loss	-104	11 h 34 m	Show
Two bad offenses squaring off against starting pitchers who are better than they may be perceived. So at this number, I'll go Under. Let's begin with lefty Matthew Boyd. He's pitched well with a 2.45 ERA. This is his third start versus the Royals this season. Kansas City has only managed one earned run off him in 14 innings. The Royals have a below average offense. They've hit the third-fewest homers in the majors. The Under also is 21-5 (81 percent) the last 26 times the Royals have gone against a southpaw starter. The teams have an Under history, too, when going against each other with the low side 13-3-1 the past 17 times. Detroit's offense is even worse than Kansas City's. The Tigers rank in the bottom-five in the major offensive categories. They draw Brady Singer, who has a 3.18 ERA in day action. The wind will be blowing out to left field at 10-12 mph. This is somewhat offset by cloudy conditions with possible light rain and Lance Barrett slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed at a 57 percent rate the past three seasons when Barrett has been behind the plate.
05-21-21	Avalanche v. Blues OVER 5.5		5-1	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
The Avalanche are averaging 5.2 goals in their last four games. The Blues haven't been able to slow them down, giving up 10 goals in the first two games of this playoff series. Those games were in Colorado. Now the scene shifts to St. Louis. The Blues are averaging 4.6 goals a game during their last six home contests. The Blues, who could be down defensemen Robert Bortuzzo and Justin Faulk, are going to be on the attack since they haven't shown an ability to beat Colorado through defense.
05-21-21	Grizzlies +5 v. Warriors	Top	117-112	Win	100	15 h 59 m	Show
Aside from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors have a lot of youth and lack big-game inexperience. I don't trust the Warriors in this point spread range against a talented, hungry Grizzlies squad that has the height and muscle to hurt Golden State inside. Yes, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies, 113-101, at home this past Sunday. But the Grizzlies were right with the Warriors until Dillon Brooks, who was doing a good job covering Curry, fouled out with Memphis trailing just, 93-91. Curry carries a high fatigue rating having played 81 minutes during his last two games. Curry's worst shooting games have occurred when he's been tired. Memphis has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been a 'dog. Big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned to the Grizzlies' lineup giving them a frontcourt edge on the Warriors with Jonas Valanclunas in the middle. Curry is an MVP finalist, but Ja Morant gives Memphis an upper tier guard, too.
05-21-21	Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221		117-112	Loss	-102	15 h 57 m	Show
The teams just met this past Sunday with postseason implications involved. Golden State won, 113-101. It was the fourth straight time the Grizzlies and Warriors went Under the total when playing at Golden State. The Warriors shot 49 percent from the floor, hit 15 of 39 3-pointers and connected on 89 percent of their free throws. So the Warriors' shooting was strong - and the game still went Under with 214 combined points. Stephen Curry finished with 46 points in that game, but was held in check until about 6 1/2 minutes were left by the defensive efforts of Dillon Brooks, who fouled out at that point. Before his forced departure, Brooks held Curry to 11-of-27 shooting from the floor while forcing five turnovers from Curry. Curry has logged 81 minutes in the last two games, the one against the Grizzlies and the game against the Lakers two days ago. Those are the most non-overtime minutes he's played during two straight games this season. Curry is 33 and has had his worst shooting games when physically exhausted. The combination of Brooks and fatigue could reduce Curry's effectiveness, which is the key to Golden State's scoring. The Grizzlies are giving up 105.4 points in their last seven games. The Warriors have held seven of their last 10 opponents to 108 or fewer points.
05-21-21	White Sox +101 v. Yankees	Top	1-2	Loss	-100	11 h 25 m	Show
After facing the Orioles and Rangers during the final seven games of their 10-game road swing, the Yankees return home to face a real team - the White Sox. The White Sox have turned the corner, owning the best record in the American League at 26-16. Carlos Rodon is one reason for this. He's been magnificent going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Rodon has 49 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings this season. I prefer Rodon far more than Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who I view as the weak spot in their rotation. Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA and is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles giving up five runs in just three innings. Worse, Montgomery is lefthanded. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 23-2 (92 percent) versus southpaw starters since the start of last season! The White Sox rank in the top three in runs and batting average. The Yankees are 22nd in runs and 24th in batting average. Friday Free Play Cardinals plus $1.07 hosting Cubs Don't be fooled by the Cubs taking three of four from the Nationals. That series was played at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have yet to show they can perform well on the road losing 12 of their 18 away contests. This applies to Kyle Hendricks, too. He has a 6.17 road ERA. St. Louis has won 14 of its 22 home games. Carlos Martinez is coming off the injured list to start. Perhaps bothered by a sprained ankle that landed him on the IL, Martinez surrendered five runs on six hits and five walks in five innings against the Rockies during his previous start on May 8. Before that performance, Martinze had been dominant in three straight starts giving up two earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 0.84 ERA. The Cubs can't seem to get fully healthy as Jason Heyward just went on the injured list.
05-20-21	Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5		5-2	Loss	-120	10 h 14 m	Show
No team gives the Golden Knights more trouble than the Wild especially when playing in Minnesota. The tight-checking, conservative Wild frustrate the Golden Knights with their methodical style. That's not going to change with the teams switching venues after the first two games of the series were played in Las Vegas. There was one goal scored in Game 1. There were four goals scored in Game 2. I'm not expecting a two-goal leap to six goals being scored in this Game 3. Las Vegas has allowed only four goals in regulation during its last five games. Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the all-time big play goalies. He has more playoff victories than any active goalie. The Golden Knights have not had their leading goal scorer, Max Pacioretty, for the last eight games. He also ranks second on the Golden Knights in points. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met.
05-20-21	Pacers v. Wizards OVER 236.5		115-142	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
Teams usually step up defensively during the postseason. But I don't see the Pacers and Wizards being capable of that. These two teams live and die by offense. Indiana finished sixth in the NBA in scoring. The Pacers are averaging 129.3 points in their last four games. The Wizards rank last in the NBA defensively. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Pacers' last 13 games. Washington was the No. 3 scoring team in the league. The Wizards have averaged 124.6 points during their last 14 games, discounting their play-in game loss to the Celtics. The Pacers rank 25th defensively. The teams met 17 days ago and there were a whopping 295 points scored! Russell Westbrook averaged 27.3 points and 20 assists per game against the Pacers during the regular season. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent, but he's back in Washington's lineup. Star guard Malcolm Brogdon is back in Indiana's lineup, which offsets the loss of Caris LeVert.
05-20-21	Pacers v. Wizards -3		115-142	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
Washington and Indiana each finished the regular season going 34-38. But I don't see these teams being even. The Wizards came on strong. The Pacers didn't. Washington closed the regular season going 17-6. The Wizards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games. They defeated the Pacers during all three regular season meetings. Indiana is 6-7 in its last 13 games. A 144-117 pasting of the choking, banged-up Hornets in Tuesday's play-in game doesn't alter my opinion that the Pacers are inferior to the Wizards. The Wizards got their bad game out of the way with a 118-100 loss to the Celtics in their play-in game two days ago. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring injury, but he is back playing. Russell Westbrook is a triple-double machine and gives Washington the best all-around player on the court. Washington has shown a bounce back ability. The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS following a defeat. They also are 18-5 ATS the past 23 times when playing on one day's rest.
05-20-21	Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 8.5	Top	2-0	Win	100	8 h 37 m	Show
The Rangers are a below average scoring team playing in a stadium that has become a huge pitcher's park. The Under has cashed in 64 percent of the Rangers' 22 home games this season. The Rangers face Domingo German, who has a 2.74 road ERA and an elite Yankee bullpen. Dane Dunning has been the Rangers' best starter. He's better than his 4.34 ERA may indicate going by various metrics, including a 2.63 FIP. Dunning has held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in five of his eight starts. Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has one of the highest strike percentages of any umpire. Note, too, this is an early start time and getaway game so a key regular or two may be rested.
05-19-21	Warriors v. Lakers -5		100-103	Loss	-108	13 h 15 m	Show
Now technically this isn't a playoff game. It's a play-in game. Neither team will get eliminated if it loses. But that doesn't mean the stakes aren't big here. When the stakes are big I want LeBron James and Anthony Davis going for me. Together they trump Stephen Curry. Kudos to Curry on a brilliant season, leading the league in scoring. The Lakers, though, have done a good job of clamping down on Curry holding him to 21.5 points a game during the past two meetings. That's nearly 11 points under his season scoring average. The Warriors lack the Lakers' depth. Their rotation goes just eight deep because of injuries. So if Curry is cold, Golden State is in big trouble. The Lakers crushed the Warriors by an average of 28 1/2 points during their last two meetings. LA didn't have Anthony Davis in those games either. Now LA has James and Davis back healthy plus monster rebounder Andre Drummond. Expect the Lakers to dominate the paint and glass with the smaller Warriors minus injured Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman. Oubre also was the player Warriors coach Steve Kerr would have liked to use defending James. Now that task falls on Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is a good defender, but his offense is going to suffer since his concentration will be on trying to stay on and contain James. The Lakers have the talent edge, home-court and now postseason motivation to win this game by more than the point spread.
05-19-21	Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5		5-8	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
I don't need much of an excuse to fade the Pirates especially when they are on the road. Jack Flaherty gives me a strong reason to not only go against Pittsburgh, but lay 1 1/2 runs on the run line against them in order to scale back the heavy juice. The Pirates are last in the majors in homers and second-to-last in runs. They are facing perhaps the best and hottest pitcher in the National League. Flaherty is 7-0 with a 2.47 ERA. He's on a string of 13 scoreless innings. Flaherty has a strong history against the Pirates, too, with a 7-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 10 career starts. Pittsburgh has lost 42 of its past 58 road games. Each of the Pirates' last five losses have come by more than one run. Pittsburgh has one decent starting pitcher, JT Brubaker. And he pitched yesterday in a 5-2 loss to St. Louis. So now it's Trevor Cahill's turn to pitch. Good news for the Cardinals. Cahill is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. He has a career 4.53 ERA versus the Cardinals in 15 appearances, including seven starts.
05-19-21	Canucks v. Flames UNDER 6	Top	2-6	Loss	-100	8 h 38 m	Show
Neither Vancouver nor Calgary have made the playoffs. This is the final regular season game for them - and it's a totally meaningless contest. It's the third game in four days between the two teams. It's a day game, too, another plus for the Under. It's been a long and unrewarding season for both the Canucks and Flames. The players just want the season to finally end so they can go on vacation. So I'm greatly anticipating a listless matchup lacking any energy or fast tempo.
05-18-21	Lightning v. Panthers +119		3-1	Loss	-100	15 h 39 m	Show
The Lightning are the defending Stanley Cup champions and have gotten healthy. But they've had trouble with the Panthers. Florida won the last two regular season meetings and nearly beat Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the series two days ago. The Panthers led, 4-3, midway through the third period before falling, 5-4. Florida outplayed Tampa Bay during regular -5-on-5 action, but gave up four special teams goals. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning's star goalie, is 1-3 in his last four starts against Florida. He's allowed 4.7 goals a game against the Panthers during this span. This is close to must-win territory for the Panthers because a loss puts them in an 0-2 hole with the next two games at Tampa. The Panthers have won 13 of their past 16 home games.
05-18-21	Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9		0-8	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
Hyun Jin Ryu is one of the best pitchers in the American League. I consider Eduardo Rodriguez to be Boston's top pitcher. Throw in an 18 mph wind blowing in from right and I'm going Under this total. The Under has cashed in nine of the Red Sox last 11 road games. Entering the season, the Red Sox bullpen was a huge question mark. But Matt Barnes has come through as the closer. Prior to giving up a game-winner homer to Shohei Ohtani two days ago, Barnes was 9-for-9 in save opportunities giving up no runs while holding foes to a .034 batting average.
05-18-21	Hornets v. Pacers -3		117-144	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
Gordon Hayward remains out. LaMelo Ball is far from 100 percent and the Hornets are in free-fall losers of their last five games and 15 of their past 21. While the Hornets have covered just one of their last seven games, the Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS during their past seven games. Indiana has played five tough or hot teams during this seven-game stretch - Lakers, Bucks, 76ers, Wizards and Hawks. Charlotte has been the worst shooting team in the league during its last five games ranking 30th in 3-point percentage and 29th in field goal shooting. Ball, bothered by a broken wrist suffered on March 29, hasn't been the same player since coming back. Obviously the wrist isn't fully healed yet. The Pacers are far more respectable with Domaontis Sabonis back in the lineup. He returned this past Sunday after missing a game because of a quad injury and had a huge game in a 12-point win against the Raptors. The Hornets, who have lost their last five games by an average of 8.8 points, are 1-4 ATS during their last five visits to Indiana.
05-17-21	Indians +127 v. Angels	Top	4-7	Loss	-100	15 h 13 m	Show
There are very few teams the Angels should be favored against when starting Patrick Sandoval - and the Indians aren't one of those teams. Cleveland has defeated the Angels eight straight times, outscoring them by nearly three runs a game during this win streak. The Indians own a winning road record. The Angels have a sub .500 home mark. Southpaw Sam Hentges is set to make his second career start for Cleveland. He tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first start five days ago against the Cubs. Hentges has 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this year. The Angels are 2-9 in their past 11 games versus a lefty starter, including 2-7 this season. They are batting .225 against southpaws. The Angels have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their past 14 games. Sandoval has a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP pitching in relief. This will be his first start of the season. He's expected to be on around a 60-65 pitch count setting up a bullpen game for the Angels, who have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.32. Monday Free Play White Sox minus $1.05 at Twins At some point the Twins have to improve on their 13-25 record. They certainly aren't that bad. But I don't see Minnesota starting to turn around its season in this game. Yes, the Twins draw aging and declining Dallas Keuchel. But the White Sox get southpaw J.A. Happ. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 22-2 against lefty starters since the start of last season. Chicago leads the majors in batting against lefties at .293. The next closest is the Red Sox at .282. Happ found out the hard way how well the White Sox hit and play against lefties when he faced them in a 13-8 loss this past Wednesday in Chicago. The White Sox battered Happ for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, by far his worst outing of the season. The 38-year-old Happ is another over-the-hill veteran, who has a bad history against the White Sox. His ERA is 6.34 in nine career starts versus Chicago. The White Sox lead the American League with a .343 on-bast percentage. Current White Sox batters are hitting a combined .333 versus Happ. Chicago enters this series having won eight of its last 10, while the Twins have dropped nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota is giving up an average of 7.1 runs in its last seven games.
05-16-21	Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 229.5		101-113	Loss	-110	6 h 32 m	Show
The Grizzlies and Warriors rank among the top 14 scoring teams in the NBA. This is one of the rare Sunday matchups that has playoff meaning. Both teams have been pointing to this matchup by resting key players. Stephen Curry plays his best when he's not fatigued. He's had four days to rest up for this game. The Grizzlies have yet to face him this season. Curry is going for a scoring title and will be firing at will. The Warriors play small ball. That's fine with the Grizzlies. who have gone Over in 13 of their last 19 road contests. Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, another instant offense performer, also are rested having not played during this past Friday game. Ja Morant gives Memphis a dynamic scorer. The Grizzlies also hold an inside edge with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr,, who is rounding into form after being out most of the season. The Warriors haven't seen him this season. Morant, Valanciunas and Jackson all were rested in the Grizzlies' last game this past Friday. The Grizzlies are the fifth-highest offensive rebounding team in the league and No. 1 in second-chance points. The Warriors are weak on the boards, giving up the fourth-most offensive rebounds. Valanciunas is No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rebounds and second-chance points. Jackson's return makes the Grizzlies even more of a force on the offensive boards.
05-16-21	Phillies v. Blue Jays -163	Top	8-10	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
Yes, we're getting into the high chalk range here as I usually don't like to lay more than minus $1.50 on a baseball game unless I perceive excellent value on the favorite. That's the case here. Lefty Robbie Ray is riding a tremendous hot streak, the Phillies have problems hitting southpaw starters and they are dealing with multiple injuries that could leave them without four starters for this game, including Bryce Harper. Another thing. The Phillies are starting Chase Anderson. The journeyman has a 5.23 ERA this season. The Blue Jays know him well since he was on their team last season. Ray has 33 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 24 2/3 innings. Ray is a monster strikeout pitcher. The negative with Ray has been his high walk ratio and many base runners. However, Ray's WHIP is 1.10 this season. That shrinks to 0.91 going by his last four starts where he has a fantastic 33-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio! The Phillies have played 12 games against lefty starters. These opposing southpaws have a combined 2.80 ERA against Philadelphia with a 77-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lefty Anthony Kay held the Phillies scoreless in four innings on Saturday giving up just one hit and striking out six. The Phillies are going to be without injured shortstop Didi Gregorius and also likely won't have Harper and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Both left Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays with injuries. Harper has shoulder soreness while Realmuto has a sore wrist. Andrew McCutchen also had a hip problem in that game so he may sit out today.
05-16-21	Islanders v. Penguins -125		4-3	Loss	-125	11 h 31 m	Show
This is a fair price to back the Penguins at home. Pittsburgh finally has gotten healthy and is primed for a serious Stanley Cup run. The Islanders don't enter the Stanley Cup playoffs with momentum, losers of seven of their past 10 games. They are 2-8 in their past 10 road contests and lost six of eight times to the Penguins during the regular season. Pittsburgh is a dominant 39-14 in its last 53 home games for 73 percent. The Penguins haven't forgotten the Islanders sweeping them in the first round of the playoffs two years ago.
05-15-21	Heat v. Bucks +4.5	Top	108-122	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret the physical, defensive-minded, well-coached Heat match up well to the Bucks. Miami proved that in a convincing manner last season eliminating the Bucks in five games during the second round of the playoffs. There's also conjecture the Bucks could be sitting out players here. There's already been tremendous early line movement to the Heat. But, even in a worst-case scenario, Milwaukee has enough depth and bench strength to cover this number at home. It's a huge plus if the Bucks do give meaningful minutes to their regulars.
05-15-21	Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5		8-9	Win	100	14 h 18 m	Show
I can easily envision each team producing at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Jose Urena, especially considering the bullpens. Williams is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA on the road this season. The Cubs are vulnerable in middle relief. Urena is 1-4 on the season with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The Tigers could have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Cubs are almost at full strength and have their two key hitters, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, back in the lineup and swinging well.
05-15-21	Canucks +180 v. Oilers		4-1	Win	180	7 h 59 m	Show
Vancouver managed to upset Edmonton, 6-3, on the road nine days ago. But this handicap is all about taking a huge price going against the Oilers, who are locked into their playoff spot and thinking more about the Stanley Cup than this meaningless matchup. This is a day game for the Oilers. They have their focus on meeting the Jets in their first-round Stanley Cup series starting Wednesday. The Canucks have endured a bizarre schedule and season because of COVID. But they've had a full day to rest and prepare after losing, 4-1, to the Flames this past Thursday. The Canucks still are playing hard. They may run out of gas with games Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday against the Flames. But they should be somewhat fresh here.
05-14-21	Indians -107 v. Mariners		3-7	Loss	-107	9 h 13 m	Show
Maybe I'm missing something here. But if I am, I'm not sure what it is because I'm surprised the Indians are such a short favorite. The Indians check the boxes. Current form? Cleveland is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Seattle has lost five in a row. Pitting matchup: Aaron Civale is 5-0 with a 2.91 ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation starter. Chris Flexen has a 3.78 ERA. He's a bottom-end type rotation starter. Offense: The Indians are averaging 4.5 runs in their last four games. They rank 17 in runs. The Mariners are averaging 2.2 runs in their past four games. They rank 22nd in runs. History: The Indians have won six of the past seven games against the Mariners. Cleveland is 4-0 in its last four visits to Seattle.
05-14-21	Nuggets v. Pistons +9		104-91	Loss	-115	8 h 30 m	Show
The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy going 2-0 on their current road trip and having home-court advantage clinched for the first round of the playoffs. This is their second to last game of the regular season so the Nuggets could rest a key player or two. Denver's objective is the playoffs, not steamrolling the Pistons by double-digits. Detroit has been getting good play from 2019 first round pick Sekou Doumbouya and its first-round picks this season - Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saben Lee. The youthful Pistons are in full rebuild so it's no surprise they've been up-and-down this season, mostly down. But Detroit should be up for this home matchup. The Pistons are off an embarrassing 19-point home loss to the Timberwolves this past Tuesday. They've had ample rest and prep time for this game. Pistons management showed its commitment to Dwane Casey extending his contract. Casey would very much like his Pistons to finish strong. This is their chance.
05-14-21	Cubs -132 v. Tigers	Top	4-2	Win	100	16 h 11 m	Show
Cubs minus $1.35 at Tigers In Jake we trust? I don't know if I can fully commit to Jake Arrieta, but I do know I want to fade Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are 0-5 in Skubal's starts. A big reason for this is Skubal has a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Skubal doesn't figure to get bailed out either by a bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 6.55 ERA through this past Wednesday. Arrieta was pitching well up until his last start giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. His ERA was 2.57 through five starts. But then he faced the Reds, the second-highest scoring team in the majors, and was hit for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on April 30. Arrieta was bothered by a cut on his right thumb during that start, which could explain his poor performance. This will be Arrieta's first time pitching since then. He's facing a weak Detroit lineup that ranks 29th in runs and is last in OPS. The Cubs were 5-1 until losing a pair of one-run games to the Indians with one of those defeats occurring when going against Shane Bieber. So certainly no shame in that. The Cubs were getting base runners, but went a mind-boggling 2-for-27 in runners in scoring position during that Indians series. That should change against Skubal and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The Cubs are banged-up, but were idle on Thursday. So today they could see a return to the lineup of Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner.
05-13-21	Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5		8-13	Win	100	17 h 14 m	Show
Chi Chi Gonzalez entered this season as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. He has lived up to that billing with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Luis Castillo entered this year as one of the better pitchers in the National League. Castillo has not lived up to that reputation with a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Neither bullpen is very good. The Reds had the worst bullpen ERA in the National League going into Wednesday. Cincinnati is short of relievers with Amir Garrett suspended. The Reds' bullpen also carries a fatigue rating after working 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday. Gonzalez has an 11.42 ERA in two May starts. He may not be holding a starting spot too much longer. The Reds rank second in the majors in runs and third in homers. Both teams have been on good Over runs. The Over is 13-6-1 in Cincinnati's last 20 games, while the Rockies have gone Over in 13 of their last 17 games.
05-13-21	Wild v. Blues -103		3-7	Win	100	9 h 16 m	Show
Both teams are locked into their respective playoff spots in the West Division. The feeling I get, though, is the Blues want this game more. St. Louis blanked Minnesota, 4-0, two days ago behind backup goalie Ville Husso. It was the Blues' fourth straight home win against Minnesota. The Blues could get back a couple of key contributors, winger Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Vince Dunn. Center Tyler Bozak could see action, too, after being rested this past Wednesday. The Blues also are expected to go with their starting goalie, Jordan Binnington. The Wild, whose hopes to finish higher than third in the West, were dashed by Wednesday's defeat to the Blues, are expected to go with backup Kaapo Kahkonen in goal and could be resting a number of other regulars.
05-13-21	Magic +12.5 v. Hawks	Top	93-116	Loss	-109	17 h 57 m	Show
Tight victories against the Wizards on Monday and Wednesday have pushed the Hawks into their first playoff spot in four years. The Hawks are thrilled, relieved and exhausted after nipping Washington, 125-124, three days ago and beating the Wizards, 120-116, last night. This sets up a tremendous letdown spot for the Hawks in today's game against the lowly Magic. This is the Hawks' third game in four days and second in two nights. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. The Magic held the Bucks, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 114 points in their last game this past Tuesday. That was six points under the Bucks' season average. The youthful Magic should play hard here, but the situation is the No. 1 factor why Orlando should keep things close.
05-12-21	Rockets +13.5 v. Lakers		122-124	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I'm anticipating a monster letdown from the Lakers after their gutty, 101-99, home overtime win against the Knicks Tuesday night. The Lakers accomplished that minus LeBron James. James is expected to make his return in this game. You couldn't blame the Lakers for taking the Rockets lightly, at least subconsciously, especially with the news that James is returning to the lineup. Houston is 5-43 in its last 48 games establishing itself as the worst team in the West if not the entire NBA. But the Rockets have covered their last three games and should get back Christian Wood, their best big man. They have some underrated backup-caliber guards, too, who can look good against LA's depleted backcourt that is minus Dennis Schroder and possibly Alex Caruso. Houston could catch a major break if the Lakers decided to hold out Anthony Davis, who tweaked his groin during the victory against the Knicks.
05-12-21	Blazers v. Jazz -126		105-98	Loss	-126	12 h 36 m	Show
Simple task for Utah. The Jazz clinch the No. 1 overall playoff seed if they beat the Trail Blazers, Thunder and Kings. This is the tough one left on Utah's regular season schedule so I anticipate the Jazz being up for it. Moreso because Utah is coming off a loss. Golden State halted the Jazz's five-game win streak with a 119-16 home win two days ago. The Jazz held Stephen Curry to 10-of-24 shooting from the floor in the loss. That doesn't bode well for Damian Lillard. Utah is 22-10 ATS the past 32 times as a home favorite. The Jazz are 2-0 versus Portland this season winning by an average of 19.5 points.
05-12-21	Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6		6-0	Push	0	17 h 8 m	Show
The Golden Knights are dealing with injuries. Among those injured is Max Pacioretty, the team's top goal scorer. He has missed the last five games. Las Vegas was down to just 15 shakers - three below normal - in a 2-1 home loss to the Avalanche this past Monday. This is a bitter and heated rivalry. The Under has cashed eight of the last 11 times between the two teams. So I can't count on the Golden Knights to produce a lot of goals. But I can count on them to have a strong defensive game especially since Marc-Andre Fleury will be back in net after not playing against Colorado. The Golden Knights have not permitted more than two goals per game during Fleury's last eight starts. Fleury won't have to worry about Sharks team captain and third-leading goal scorer, Logan Couture. He's out with an injury.
05-12-21	Maple Leafs v. Senators +170	Top	3-4	Win	170	18 h 30 m	Show
This is a huge Ontario rivalry. Given the circumstances, the Senators probably should be the favorite instead of a massive home 'dog. The Maple Leafs have nothing to play for in this game. They have already clinched the North Division and the No. 1 seed in the division. Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe has made it clear his intention and priority is to rest healthy players and get his injured players slowly back into form if they are able to play. Another priority is getting rusty goalie Frederik Andersen up to speed. Andersen has been the Maple Leafs' first string goalie. However, he hasn't played in the NHL since March 19 due to a knee injury. Andersen didn't look good in a couple of AHL appearances, but Keefe wants to prepare him for the playoffs. He has this game and the Leafs' final regular season game on Friday against the Jets to do that. Ottawa has been playing well going 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Senators, though, are off a bad 6-1 road loss to the Flames this past Sunday. This is Ottawa's final game of the season since it won't be in the playoffs. The Senators want to close their season looking good. So this is a much more important game for them. This has been a home team series, too, lately with the host winning four of the past five times.
05-12-21	Maple Leafs v. Senators UNDER 6.5		3-4	Loss	-113	16 h 16 m	Show
The Under is 11-2-1 in the Senators' last 14 home games. Ottawa has given up just six goals during its last four home games. The Senators' strong defense at home should continue here. Toronto has multiple injuries and figures to be resting starters having clinched the North Division. This could lead to a conservative game plan from the Maple Leafs, who also don't want goalie Frederick Andersen embarrassed if he's in goal for the first time since March 19. The Maple Leafs haven't surrendered more than two goals in regulation during their last seven games.
05-12-21	Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6		4-3	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
I don't see either team pushing pace, or showing much in this meaningless matchup. The Oilers are the No. 2 seed in the North Division, while the Canadiens backed into the playoffs after getting a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Oilers two days ago. The teams could meet in the playoffs so neither will want to tip their hand. So I see a vanilla type of low-scoring, conservative game. The Canadiens are in action for the 25th time in 44 days. They are likely to rest key regulars in order to get fresh for the postseason. The Oilers don't want to risk injury by overextending their superstars. This past Monday's game was just the second time in the last nine meetings that the Oilers-Canadiens went Over the total. There was just one goal scored in the third period. It was 3-2 more than halfway through the third period.
05-11-21	Magic v. Bucks -13	Top	102-114	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
The Bucks have something to prove physically and mentally after being embarrassed, 146-125, on the road by the Spurs Monday night. Milwaukee certainly is going to be motivated for tonight's home game and the Bucks have the perfect patsy to get themselves right again - the Magic. Orlando has lost 18 of 24 since dumping their top players at the trade deadline. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Bucks are giving up an unsightly 137.7 points during their last three games. It's been a combination of lackluster defense and hot offenses that have caused this. Milwaukee should clamp down defensively here. Orlando is second-to-last in scoring and last in field goal percentage. The Bucks trail the Nets by one game for second-place in the Eastern Conference. So they will have incentive. The Bucks have dominated the Magic winning the past six meetings while going 5-0-1 ATS. This includes the Bucks' two victories against the Magic this season by an average of 29.5 points.
05-11-21	Yankees v. Rays +119	Top	3-1	Loss	-100	18 h 25 m	Show
I can see the Yankees being a road favorite against the Rays if Gerrit Cole is on the mound. But he isn't here. It's Jordan Montgomery so this number is off. The Yankees have a lot of trouble against the Rays, going 5-18 during the last 23 meetings. New York has lost eight of the past 10 times on Astroturf, too. Quirky Tropicana Field gives the Rays a solid home field edge, especially against the Yankees. Montgomery won his first start back on April 5. He hasn't won since. He has a 4.41 ERA on the season and a bad history versus the Rays - 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA. This includes two starts against the Rays this season where he's 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. The Yankees are going to have to deal with Luis Patino for a few innings. He's an exciting young fireballer with 10 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings and a 1.17 ERA. The Yankees have never faced him, which is to their disadvantage. Tampa Bay has continued its domination of the Yankees this year going 5-1. I don't see that domination ending in this matchup.
05-11-21	Bruins v. Capitals UNDER 5.5		1-2	Win	100	7 h 58 m	Show
The Capitals have clinched second place in the East Division. The Bruins just clinched third place in the East with a 3-2 overtime victory against the Islanders on Monday. So both teams are locked into their playoff seedings. I'm expecting a very vanilla type of game because of this especially given the Bruins having won a huge game last night and the Capitals nursing multiple injuries to key players. There's no reason for either team to go all out here, or show any new wrinkles right before the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Capitals couldn't even field the usual number of 18 players during their last game, a 2-1 victory against the Flyers this past Saturday. Now, because of either injury or COVID-19 protocol, the Capitals could be without superstar Alex Ovechkin, their two top centers - Nicklas Backstom and Evgeny Kuznetsov - star defenseman John Carlson, T.J. Oshie and enforcer Tom Wilson. Carlson's loss actually would be a plus for the Under since he's arguably the best offensive defenseman in the league. The Capitals are likely to play more conservative if he's out.
05-10-21	Jazz -3 v. Warriors	Top	116-119	Loss	-102	11 h 26 m	Show
There's a class difference here worthy enough to lay the road points. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games riding a five-game win streak. No rest stops for them, though, as they hold just a 1 1/2-game lead on the Suns for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors also have been playing well. But they've also played a bunch of bunnies lately. Their last six games have been against the Thunder twice, Pelicans twice, Rockets and Timberwolves. Only the Pelicans have a slim chance of making the playoffs among that dreck. Utah has covered nine of the last 12 in this series and is 4-1 ATS in its past five visits to Golden State.
05-10-21	Blues v. Kings +120	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	15 h 11 m	Show
You may think this is a cheap price for the Blues to lay against the Kings, who won't be making the playoffs. This is all about the situation, though. St. Louis clinched a playoff spot this past Friday. The Blues are locked into the fourth spot in the Pacific Division regardless of this outcome. So Blues coach Craig Berube isn't going to risk an injury to any of his players. He's going to be resting his regulars and getting ready for the postseason. The Blues have eight regulars who are 30 or older. The Kings won't be letting up. This is their final home game so a strong effort should be forthcoming. LA coach Todd McLellan has made it clear to his team - both youngsters and veterans - that they are playing for their jobs and futures. The Kings have shown determination and competitiveness in their last four games beating the Coyotes - who still held playoff hope at the time - twice and losing to the powerful Avalanche twice by one goal in each loss.
05-09-21	Pelicans +4 v. Hornets		112-110	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
The oddsmaker has overcompensated for the Pelicans not having injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Granted those are New Orleans' two best players. The Hornets, however, have five rotation players either out or questionable. So they're dealing with injuries, too. Not only are the Pelicans in must-win mode needing to move up one spot to qualify for the play-in tournament, but the intensity for this matchup is increased because it's a meeting of the Ball brothers, Lonzo and LeMelo. The Pelicans hung in against a much tougher foe than the Hornets this past Friday, losing to the 76ers on the road, 109-107, despite not having Williamson and Ingram. That was the fifth straight road game the Pelicans have covered. They also are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits to Charlotte.
05-09-21	Stars v. Blackhawks +140		2-4	Win	140	17 h 56 m	Show
The Blackhawks showed a little life pulling out a 2-1 overtime road win against Carolina this past Thursday in their last game. But really my entire handicap here is a fade on the Stars. Dallas has to be demoralized. The Stars were impressive in a 5-2 win against the Lightning this past Friday. But on Saturday the Stars found out their playoff hopes were ended by the Predators defeating the Hurricanes. So I don't see how the Stars get motivated for this meaningless matchup. The Blackhawks have played Dallas tough this season going 2-2-2. The Stars have lost four of their last five road games. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll take a shot with Chicago.
05-09-21	Rays v. A's -109		4-3	Loss	-109	6 h 46 m	Show
Tampa Bay rookie Shane McClanahan has electric stuff. He's shown that through two big league starts. But how is his command? How is his control? How much stamina does he have? I don't have those questions for Oakland starter Cole Irvin. He's earned trust with me going 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA during his last four starts. Irvin is coming off eight innings of work against the Blue Jays where he allowed only one run with nine strikeouts this past Tuesday. The A's are strong at home and have been playing well winning 20 of their last 27 games. The Rays have two significant injuries to the middle of their defense with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and catcher Francisco Mejia both out with injuries.
05-09-21	Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 216.5		106-100	Win	100	7 h 35 m	Show
The Knicks are coming off an embarrassing, 128-105, loss to the Suns from Friday night. That was the third-most points the Knicks have surrendered during regulation. New York is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA in scoring defensive, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks should be highly motivated here and for them that starts and ends with defense. The Clippers rank fifth defensively giving up 108 points per game. That number goes down to 106 a game counting just the last seven contests. The Knicks rank 26th in scoring. Two other factors for why this should be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker envisions: Pace and game time. The Knicks play at the slowest tempo in the NBA. The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the league during the last five games. This is an early start time, too. So the shooting rhythm could be off.
05-08-21	Rockets v. Jazz OVER 226	Top	116-124	Win	100	12 h 36 m	Show
Both teams are coming off huge efforts on Friday night. Utah got past the Nuggets, 127-120, at home while the short-handed Rockets turned in a gutty performance in a 141-133 loss to the Bucks on the road. I'm anticipating a letdown from both sides here, which sets up a less-than-intense game with sloppy defense. Houston ranks 27th in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Rockets give up 116 points per game. That number shoots up to allowing 127.1 points if you go by their last seven games. Utah is the No. 3 scoring team in the NBA at 116.6. The Jazz don't need Donovan Mitchell's scoring if Bojan Bogdanovic stays hot. Bogdanovic made 16-of-23 shots from the floor, including eight 3-pointers, in scoring 48 points against the Nuggets. Utah is coming off scoring 127 versus the Nuggets and 126 against the Spurs in its last two games, both of which were at home. The Spurs rank 15th defensively while the Nuggets give up the ninth-fewest points in the league. Houston is far worse defensively. The Rockets put up 133 points on the Bucks despite having only eight players. The Rockets were missing Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. versus the Bucks. It's a nice bonus if either, or both, were to play today. Kelly Olynyk continues to contribute strong offensive numbers inside and the Rockets have respectable backcourt scoring depth with Armoni Brooks and D.J. Augustin. If fatigue hits the Rockets, which it very well could, it will show on defense. The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games when it played without rest.
05-08-21	Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5		3-4	Loss	-111	7 h 11 m	Show
This is a special game for Anaheim. It's the Ducks' final game of the season and they're being sentimental about it putting Ryan Miller in goal. This will be Miller's last game of his 18-year NHL career as he is retiring. I have to believe the Ducks will play ultra-conservative, doing their best not to let Miller get embarrassed. A slower-paced tempo is fine by the Wild. Minnesota coach Dean Evason was not pleased with how his team played in a 4-3 overtime win against the Ducks on Friday. Evason is more about discipline and grit rather than flash and style. Minnesota goalie Cam Talbot has a 1.34 goals-against average and .951 save percentage in three starts against the Ducks this season. Lifetime, Talbot has a 2.04 GAA and .935 saver percentage in 20 games against the Ducks. Anaheim is the lowest-scoring team in the NHL averaging just 2.2 goals per game. It's a big reason why the Under has cashed in 11 of the Ducks' last 15 games.
05-08-21	Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9		11-6	Win	100	7 h 56 m	Show
The Red Sox are the No. 1 scoring team in baseball averaging 5.2 runs per game. That figure rises to 7 runs per game if you go by the last seven games. Boston draws lefty Zac Lowther, making his first big league start, probably followed by a bevy of Baltimore relievers as this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Orioles. The Red Sox are 7-3 versus lefty starters. Garrett Richards will be on the hill for Boston. He's pitched better his last two starts, but struggled early in the season when he had to go against the Orioles twice. This already is the Orioles' third look at Richards, whose career record against the Orioles is 0-5 with a 6.38 ERA in 10 appearances, including six starts. The Orioles have been getting runners on base. They've scored 5 or more runs in four of their last six games.
05-07-21	Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5		5-2	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
Expect a loose game with both teams now eliminated from Stanley Cup competition. That should result in at least six goals being scored. Arizona ranks 23rd defensively. San Jose is 30th defensively. The Coyotes have permitted at least 3 goals in all but one of their last six games. The Sharks have given up 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 14 games. They are going to be starting backup goalie Josef Korenar, who has a 3.04 goals against average. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.
05-07-21	Lakers +8.5 v. Blazers	Top	101-106	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
No LeBron James. No Dennis Schroder. OK, now that's out the way here's why the Lakers keep this game close, if not pull the outright upset: The Trail Blazers are playing their first home game since April 25. They've been on the road since turning in an impressive 5-1 away mark during this span. So this is a dangerous spot for the Trail Blazers, who have lost their LAST six home games. The Lakers are 1-4 in their past five games. Their win was against the Nuggets, which is impressive. LA's losses, though, were to the Clippers, Raptors, Kings and Wizards. The Kings and Wizards have been sizzling. Anthony Davis is expected to play after logging just nine minutes in his last game. Davis is calling this matchup the biggest game the Lakers have left on their regular season.
05-07-21	Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5		3-4	Win	100	8 h 47 m	Show
These teams have a strong Over tendency when meeting each other with the high side being 8-1-1 the past 10 times. The Blues are a slight above average scoring team with a below average defense. They have allowed at least 3 goals in eight of their last 10 games. The Golden Knights are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL, averaging 3.4 goals a game. Las Vegas has scored at least 3 goals in 11 of its last 12 games.
05-07-21	Nuggets v. Jazz -4		120-127	Win	100	10 h 58 m	Show
Both teams are banged-up, but have been surviving very nicely. The Jazz are still elite even if Donovan Mitchell isn't ready to return to the lineup. The Nuggets keep losing players. They've been without star shooting guard Jamal Murray and now have a serious crisis in the backcourt with Monte Morris, sparkplug Will Barton and P.J. Dozier all injured. Look for that to catch up to the Nuggets in Salt Lake City, a place they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 visits. The Jazz have been home since May going 3-0 SU and ATS since then beating the Spurs twice and Raptors once. The Nuggets are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests, with one of those covers occurring versus hapless Houston. There is too much for the Nuggets to overcome and the spread is fair to back the home favorite.
05-07-21	White Sox -145 v. Royals		3-0	Win	100	10 h 35 m	Show
Best American League pitcher in April? Allow me to nominate Carlos Rodon, who went 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA. Rodon has given up just two earned runs in 25 innings and has 36 strikeouts. The Royals had been a major surprise, but reality is catching to them. They've lost five in a row to fall out of first place in the AL Central. The Royals are hoping Brad Keller, backed by a cold Royals bullpen that has a 5.80 ERA during the last two weeks, can halt the skid. Not in this spot, though. Keller hasn't contributed to the Royals' early success with an 8.06 ERA. The White Sox are 22-9 the past 31 times as road chalk and have won seven in a row at Kansas City.
05-06-21	Grizzlies v. Pistons +9.5	Top	97-111	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
The Grizzlies aren't good enough to cover a road spread this high considering the situation they are in. This marks Memphis' fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies just defeated the Timberwolves, 139-135, in a wild game on Wednesday night. Memphis is 1-4 ATS the last five times it has been favored. The Pistons are in a youth movement. But they have received strong play from rookies Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Those three combined, however, to shoot 4-for-23 in the Pistons' last game. That was two days ago against the Hornets. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and Wayne Ellington didn't play for Detroit in that game. Still, the Pistons only lost, 102-99. The Pistons are 15-6-1 the past 22 times following a loss. They can hang in against this foe, particularly given the Grizzlies' high fatigue rating.
05-06-21	Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5		9-12	Loss	-108	11 h 38 m	Show
Nathan Eovaldi has come through as a good No. 2 pitcher for the Red Sox. He's had four of six excellent starts and is facing a weak Tigers lineup that ranks 30th in runs, batting average and OPS. Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA may indicate. He's a sinkerball pitcher. So I don't anticipate the Red Sox beating him with the long ball. Ron Kulpa is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has a good Under reputation that is backed by the Under going 28-20 (58 percent) the past four years when he's been behind the plate.
05-05-21	Blue Jays v. A's -118	Top	9-4	Loss	-118	14 h 45 m	Show
I had the A's at around this price Tuesday night and I'm coming right back on them. Oakland has won 11 of its last 13 home games. The A's have faced lefty starters in four of their last five games, going 4-1 in those games. Long-term, the A's have won 75 percent of their last 63 games versus southpaw starters. This doesn't bode well for Toronto starter, southpaw. Robbie Ray. I think every fantasy baseball owner has flirted with Ray at some point in some league. Ray always disappoints. Yes he gets strikeouts. But he also walks way too many batters, which leads to a high ERA and ratio. I prefer Oakland starter Chris Bassitt, who has become dependable. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts with at least eight strikeouts in each of these starts. The Blue Jays are missing several players as George Springer is hurt again. Also out is catcher Alejandro Kirk.
05-05-21	Suns v. Hawks UNDER 228		103-135	Loss	-104	8 h 16 m	Show
There shouldn't be any cheap baskets in this one. The Hawks rank third in 3-point defense, while the Suns are fifth-best in defending 3-pointers. Don't expect a fast pace from the Suns and veteran point guard Chris Paul. Phoenix is playing for the fourth time in six days, third in four days and second in two nights having defeated the Cavaliers in overtime on Tuesday. Paul, who turns 36 on Thursday, logged nearly 36 minutes last night. If you discount a pair of road contests against the 76ers, the Hawks are giving up an average of only 103.6 points in their last five games. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the Hawks have hosted the Suns.
05-05-21	Pirates v. Padres -1.5		2-4	Win	104	8 h 39 m	Show
Neither team has been scoring much. The difference is the Pirates aren't going to break loose eventually like the Padres are because they don't have the offense and stars that San Diego possess. That, in a nutshell, explains the pitching matchup, too, of JT Brubaker versus Yu Darvish. Brubaker has been a highly pleasant surprise for the Pirates with a 2.63 ERA. Perhaps Brubaker will continue to pitch extremely well, but his metrics suggest he's due for regression, including a hard contact ratio and a 91.2 left on base percentage. Darvish is at the superstar level with a 3-1 record and 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.35 ERA if you take Darvish's last 33 1/3 innings. The Pirates are averaging two runs during their last five games.
05-04-21	Blue Jays v. A's -119		1-4	Win	100	9 h 45 m	Show
I like the A's at home. I especially like the pitching matchup for them here and the price is right to back them. Oakland is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams. The A's have won 10 of their last 12 home games. I had some doubts about Cole Irvin being in a big-league rotation. But Irvin has reached a trust level for me going 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA during his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 20-to-2 during this span. Anthony Kay is slated to make his second start of the season for Toronto. Kay's first start didn't go well. He gave up four earned runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Royals on April 15. The Blue Jays have been reluctant to start him since.
05-04-21	Mavs v. Heat OVER 215.5	Top	127-113	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
Going by season statistics this total seems about right. Both Dallas and Miami are top-10 defenses. However, current form-wise this total is too low. Discounting a 111-99 loss this past Sunday to the Kings, their jinx team, the Mavericks are averaging 124.3 points in their last three games. The Heat have surrendered at least 110 points in three of their last four games. Miami, though, is averaging 120.3 points in its past three games. Dallas has permitted 110 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games. The Mavericks still probably won't have back injured big man Kristaps Porzingis, but they are expected to have back gunner Tim Hardaway Jr. Porzingis does provide inside scoring, but his absence would open things up inside offensively for the Heat. The Heat could be without Andre Iguodala, who has a hip injury. He's a top-notch defender so that would be a plus for the Under.
05-04-21	Islanders -1.5 v. Sabres		3-4	Loss	-100	6 h 35 m	Show
A flat performance and outstanding goaltending from Buffalo fourth-stringer Michael Houser did in the Islanders in a 4-2 loss on Monday. I'm not expecting a repeat. Buffalo is 17-40 following a victory. The Islanders had beaten the Sabres in the previous six meetings this season with five of those victories occurring by multiple goals. The last time the Sabres defeated the Islanders two straight times during the regular season was nine years ago. Even not performing well, the Islanders still outplayed the hapless Sabres in two of three periods. Houser came up with 34 saves. I doubt he plays that well again against a determined Islanders squad that will be taking Buffalo far more seriously this time around.
05-03-21	Kings v. Coyotes -134	Top	3-2	Loss	-134	18 h 41 m	Show
This late in the regular season, it's vital to find out which teams have incentive AND are playing hard and which teams have packed it in. This contrast between these two teams was made obvious this past weekend. The Coyotes showed life and energy nearly sweeping the powerful Golden Knights at home. Arizona is pushing for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes ended Las Vegas' 10-game win streak this past Friday with a 3-0 victory and then nearly upset the Golden Knights again on Saturday losing, 3-2, in overtime. The Kings were the complete opposite. Even though mathematically their playoff hopes are alive, the players and coach know they aren't achieving the impossible. They are not making the postseason. LA nipped the Ducks, 2-1, this past Friday by scoring in the final minute. The Ducks, who have the second-fewest points in the NHL, then soundly whacked the listless Kings, 6-2, Saturday night. Following that loss to the Ducks this is what Kings coach Todd McLellan had to say, "We're not going to make the playoffs. I just don't see how that's going to happen." Now both teams have to suck it up and play their third game in four days. The Coyotes are 4-0 the past four times when favored. The Kings are 2-7 the past nine times when playing for the third time in four days.
05-03-21	Rays -112 v. Angels		7-3	Win	100	12 h 28 m	Show
Tyler Glasnow at a very reasonable lay price. That's pretty much my handicap in a nutshell. Except for one bad start against the Blue Jays, Glasnow has been unhittable. He's allowed just two earned runs in his other five starts spanning 31 2/3 innings with 46 strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani can't come close to matching that. Ohtani has yet to reach the sixth inning. He's given up 13 walks in 13 2/3 innings. The Rays have won five of their last six road games. They draw the Angels in their first home game following a nine-game road trip. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 19 times.
05-03-21	Bruins v. Devils OVER 5.5		3-0	Loss	-110	14 h 18 m	Show
The Bruins are going to get their share of goals against the Devils, who have allowed at least 3 goals in 15 of their last 16 games and rank last in penalty killing. Boston has scored 3 or more goals in nine of its last 11 games. The Bruins are averaging 4.6 goals during their last three games. The key is how many goals can the Devils put up to help get Over this total? New Jersey should contribute its share. The Devils are showing a lot of energy in posting a three-game win streak. They are averaging 4.5 goals in their last four games.
05-03-21	Capitals -110 v. Rangers		6-3	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
The Rangers are banged-up, in a scoring slump and drawing the Capitals, who are likely to be reinforced with Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson returning from injuries. Those are the Capitals' two best players. Their return makes this even more of a bad matchup for the Rangers, who are not a physical team. New York has surrendered 3 or more goals in seven of its last nine games. The Capitals are the second-highest scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game. The Rangers have been shut out in their last two games. They have been down multiple players, including Chris Kreider, Brett Howden, Ryan LIndgren and Jacob Trouba.
05-02-21	Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5		2-1	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
The Red Wings are becoming a dead nuts Under team. Detroit has allowed only five goals in regulation during its past four games. However, the Red Wings have scored two or fewer goals in seven of their last eight games as multiple injuries to their best scorers have taken a toll. The Red Wings realize their only hope is to play conservative and not get caught up in an up-tempo style since they have no firepower. They got away with this on Saturday edging the Lightning, 1-0, in a shootout. Detroit managed just 15 shots on goal and couldn't score against Lightning backup goalie Curtis McElhinney during regulation and overtime. Now Detroit could get Andrei Vasilevskiy, perhaps the best goalie in the NHL.
05-02-21	Lightning -1.5 v. Red Wings		2-1	Loss	-120	14 h 47 m	Show
The Lightning thoroughly outplayed the Red Wings as expected on Saturday. What wasn't expected was the Red Wings pulling out a 1-0 shootout win. Tampa Bay outshot Detroit, 33-15, but blew a number of good scoring chances. The Lightning won't be taking the Red Wings lightly in this shortest of revenge setting. They also likely won't be playing their backup goalie again. I see this as a kill spot for the Lightning. Detroit has no firepower. The Red Wings have only scored more than two goals once in their eight games. Tampa Bay is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game.
05-02-21	Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers	Top	16-4	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today.
05-01-21	Nuggets v. Clippers -5	Top	110-104	Loss	-105	10 h 27 m	Show
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
05-01-21	Stars v. Predators -103		0-1	Win	100	7 h 10 m	Show
I like the way this game sets up for Nashville. The Predators are home and have had ample time to rest and prepare since they last played on Tuesday, a game they lost, 7-4, at home to the Panthers. It's rare this late in the season for a team to get a three-day break like that. Dallas, on the other, is coming off a 3-0 shutout loss to the Lightning two days ago. This will be the Stars' fourth game in six days. The Stars have lost 21 of the last 29 times against above .500 opponents. Nashville has defeated Dallas in four of the last five meetings.