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All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-21-20	Rays v. Dodgers -145	Top	6-4	Loss	-145	17 h 22 m	Show
Momentum is crucial in the baseball playoffs. The Dodgers have it. The Rays don't. LA has won four in a row after being on the brink of elimination from the Braves. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games. The Rays haven't played well since going up 3-0 on the Astros in the ALCS. It doesn't hurt the Dodgers' chances that they are the superior team with both great hitting and pitching. The Dodgers led the Majors averaging 5.8 runs per game. They are averaging 5.5 runs in their last four games. Cody Bellinger has come alive smacking three homers during the last three games. The Rays don't have the offense to match LA's. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.1 runs in its last 10 games. The Rays are going with lefty Blake Snell, who has allowed seven runs in his last 14 postseason innings spread across three starts. He hasn't completed six innings during any of his playoff starts this season. This isn't the vintage Snell of three seasons ago. The Dodgers are 17-6 versus lefties this year, including 4-1 during the postseason. Tampa Bay is going up against Dodgers pitching that has allowed three or fewer runs in four straight games. The Rays are going to be looking at Tony Gonsolin and probably Julio Urias in this game. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in the regular season with a 0.84 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings. Urias has a 0.56 ERA and 4-0 record in 16 playoff innings this season spread across four appearances. The Dodgers have won 77 percent of the time they've been favored during the past 56 instances.
10-20-20	Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	3-8	Loss	-129	20 h 19 m	Show
Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation - when it comes to the regular season. Kershaw just isn't the same pitcher in the World Series where he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. All together, Kershaw has made 35 postseason appearances and has a losing record with a 4.31 ERA. Kershaw also has been dealing with back problems. Kershaw is going to have to deal with the hottest power hitter in the playoffs, Randy Arozarena. He's smacked seven homers in 55 postseason at bats. So there's an excellent chance Tampa Bay can keep this game within one run, if not win outright. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Rays would be 11-3 in the playoffs. LA would be 4-5 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The teams were idle on Monday. The Rays are 9-2 following an off day. Tampa Bay is pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's prone to the long ball, but is a huge strikeout pitcher. He struck out 91 batters in 57 1/3 innings during the regular season and has fanned 25 in 19 1/3 postseason innings.
10-19-20	Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-109	85 h 22 m	Show
If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12.
10-18-20	Rams v. 49ers OVER 51	Top	16-24	Loss	-118	82 h 21 m	Show
Take away Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and assorted other defensive players and what is left for the 49ers? A defense that gave up 43 points at home to the Dolphins last week. The Rams' offense is far more potent than Miami's. The Rams have numerous receiving weapons, including two good tight ends, rank fourth in the NFL in total yards and have maybe the league's sharpest play-caller in Sean McVay. Jared Goff is having a big season. McVay has been surprisingly conservative at times this season. That shouldn't be the case here facing a banged-up 49ers' secondary and lacking their best pass rusher. The 49ers' offense should be far better this week. Jimmy Garoppolo is healthier and got the rust off last Sunday. He also has his weapons back, including San Francisco's No. 1 running back, Raheem Mostert. The Rams also have injuries in their secondary. LA ranks third in scoring defense holding foes to only 18 points a game. That number is misleading, though, since the 49ers held Washington and the Giants to a combined 19 points in its last two games. The Rams surrendered 35 points on the road to the Bills three games ago. There were 80 and 65 points, respectively, scored in the two meetings last season between the teams with the Rams winning, 41-39, and losing, 34-31.
10-18-20	Packers v. Bucs UNDER 56		10-38	Win	100	58 h 45 m	Show
I don't get why this total is so high? The Packers' defense isn't elite, but it's decent. Pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander are among the best at their respective positions. No Vita Vea for Tampa Bay. He's a tremendous run-stuffer. But Tampa Bay still has the No. 1 defense in the NFC. The Buccaneers give up the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL. Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring averaging 38 points. The Packers also have gone against all soft defenses - Vikings, Lions, Saints and Falcons. Every one of those teams rank among the bottom seven in points allowed. Aaron Rodgers has yet to face a pass rushing tandem the equal of Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. As for Tampa Bay's offense, we've yet to see vintage Tom Brady. Heck, Brady showed his age, having a senior moment by forgetting it was fourth down on the Bucs' final possession last week against the Bears. The Buccaneers' wideouts are banged-up and Leonard Fournette isn't likely to play leaving the running up to mediocre Ronald Jones.
10-18-20	Bengals +9.5 v. Colts		27-31	Win	100	55 h 1 m	Show
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
10-18-20	Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles		30-28	Loss	-110	55 h 39 m	Show
The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.
10-18-20	Texans +4 v. Titans		36-42	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
10-17-20	Astros v. Rays -116		2-4	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
Hated or not, the Astros have done a great job winning three in a row to force a Game 7 in this ALCS. But I want the Rays going for me in this winner-take-all matchup. Tampa Bay has the much deeper bullpen, is the better fielding team and Kevin Cash is a superior manager to Dusty Baker. I also prefer Charlie Morton over Lance McCullers in the starting pitching matchup. Morton has given up 3 or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. He is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in the postseason this year. He beat the Astros in Game 2 firing five scoreless innings. Morton is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 playoff appearances that includes 10 starts. McCullers is a feast-or-famine type pitcher. He's allowed five homers during his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The last four innings could be taken over by the bullpens. The Rays hold a big edge there especially with Houston's top bullpen guys dealing with fatigue issues.
10-17-20	Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 54		28-14	Loss	-115	27 h 58 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Mississippi State scoring just two points against Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs were done in by six interceptions. Say what you will about Mike Leach, but he is resourceful and innovative with his passing schemes. Texas A&M gave up 435 passing yards to Alabama and 312 passing yards to Florida during its last two games.The Aggies surrendered an average of 45 points during those two matchups. I see Mississippi State scoring big like it did against LSU when it produced 44 points. The Aggies rank 20th in the nation in total yards. They are coming off a 41-point performance against Florida. Mississippi State's defense is stepping up in class after having faced Kentucky and Arkansas in its last two games.
10-17-20	UMass v. Georgia Southern -31		0-41	Win	100	26 h 17 m	Show
UMass probably was doing college football a favor by electing to cancel its season. The Minutemen would not be missed. They are terrible. However, UMass decided to opt back in. That was just three weeks ago. You can imagine how little preparation time the Minutemen have. This game wasn't even scheduled until Oct. 8. Georgia Southern had a hole in its schedule because coronavirus forced postponement of their original opponent, far-stronger Appalachian State. So Georgia Southern won't lose a beat. The Eagles already have played three games. UMass barely has a depth chart. The Minutemen are likely to go with Mike Fallon at QB. He's thrown for 40 years during his four years with the program. Georgia Southern should bury UMass with its triple-option attack. The Eagles are the fourth-highest rushing team in the country. UMass played Army last season. That was the one foe that also ran a triple-option offense. Army buried the Minutemen, 63-7.
10-17-20	Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis	Top	49-50	Loss	-109	25 h 53 m	Show
Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions.
10-17-20	Duke v. NC State OVER 58.5		20-31	Loss	-110	19 h 50 m	Show
Thanks to improved offensive line play, Duke's offense is coming on. The Blue Devils scored 31 points versus Virginia Tech two weeks ago and lit up Syracuse for 38 points, 36 first downs and 645 yards this past Saturday. Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant each ran for more than 160 yards in that game for Duke. North Carolina State has gone Over in each of its four games. That's not a surprise considering the Wolfpack average 34.3 points a game while giving up exactly 34.3 points per game. The Blue Devils allow 30.6 points a game. These teams are explosive and up-tempo. I expect each team to hit 30 points again.
10-17-20	Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64		7-12	Win	100	50 h 41 m	Show
Only 7 teams allow fewer points than Notre Dame. But the biggest handicap to the Under is bad weather in the forecast. Heavy winds are being forecast for this matchup in South Bend. There could be gusts in the 30-35 mph range. Neither team plays at a fast pace either. So there should be lots of running due to the weather conditions.
10-16-20	Astros v. Rays -130	Top	7-4	Loss	-130	15 h 14 m	Show
The Astros have some momentum winning two in a row to keep their season alive down 3-2 in the best-of-seven ALCS. Only twice all season has Tampa Bay lost more than two in a row. I don't see the Rays losing a third consecutive game. Tampa Bay has the more established starting pitcher, superior bullpen and better manager. Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young Award three seasons ago. He's been strong this season and during the playoffs. Snell defeated Houston five days ago holding the Astros to one run in five innings. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who has posted solid numbers but has control issues and gives up the long ball. Valdez has issued seven walks in his 18 innings of postseason work and has surrendered three homers during his last two starts.
10-16-20	SMU v. Tulane UNDER 65	Top	37-34	Loss	-114	38 h 34 m	Show
Both teams have suffered key skill position injuries. SMU has lost its best wide receiver, Reggie Roberson, and top running back, TJ McDaniel, for the season. Tulane is down its best running back, Tyjae Spears, for the year. The Green Wave also suffered two starting offensive line injuries to left tackle Joey Claybrook and right guard Josh Remetich last week. Both are questionable this week. Claybrook is a key because true freshman quarterback Michael Pratt has made just one start. He didn't produce good numbers in his first start against Houston last week. SMU has held its four opponents to an average of 23.3 points. SMU kept Memphis, which ranks eighth in the nation in yards, to 27 points in its last game. A key here is Tulane's defense is overdue to play better. The Green Wave start seven seniors and four juniors on defense. They had their entire defensive front four return, including Patrick Johnson and Cameron Sample. Defense was supposed to be a strength. Instead the Green Wave have surrendered 31 points and 395.2 yards a game. Improvement should come.
10-15-20	Dodgers v. Braves OVER 9		2-10	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
The Dodgers got their bats going in big fashion scoring 15 runs against the Braves on Wednesday. The Braves are in trouble here having to go with rookie Bryse Wilson, who has never started a postseason game. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Braves. Multiple relievers isn't the way to beat the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is slated to start for LA. Kershaw isn't a sure thing anymore especially after he was scratched two days earlier because of back spasms. Kershaw pitched wll against the Brewers and Padres in the playoffs, but prior to this season his playoff numbers were 9-11 with a 4.43 ERA. The Braves scored 13 runs, produced 18 hits with five homers during the first two games of this series before losing, 15-3, Wednesday. Cory Blaser is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the dish the past two years.
10-15-20	Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3	Top	52-59	Win	100	17 h 40 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover. .
10-14-20	Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves	Top	15-3	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
The Braves have captured the first two games of this NLCS matchup. But this sets up to be the Dodgers' spot. Given Clayton Kershaw's uncertain status following a flare-up of back trouble, Julio Urias might be LA's most reliable pitcher. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during the regular season. He's followed that up by being unscored upon in eight innings of postseason work striking out 11 while issuing just a single walk. Urias is a blazing 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during his last three appearances spanning 14 innings. Atlanta has some vulnerability when you get past its first couple of starters. That's the case here with Kyle Wright getting the start. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 ratio during the regular season. Wright pitched much better in his one playoff appearance shutting out the Marlins in six innings of work. The Dodgers aren't the Marlins. No team scored more runs and hit more homers than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have professional hitters who can take a walk if need be. Wright lacks good control as evidenced by his walking 24 batters in 38 innings.
10-13-20	Rays v. Astros +101	Top	5-2	Loss	-100	17 h 30 m	Show
I have nothing but admiration for Rays manager Kevin Cash. He's an out-of-the-box thinker and one of the best managers in baseball. He has the Rays on the verge of going to the World Series. Tampa Bay leads Houston 2-0 in the American League Championship Series. Now, though, is the time to step in with the Astros, who are 8-1 the last nine times they've been a playoff underdog. Tampa Bay has outscored Houston by just three runs in the two games. The Rays only have 10 hits in the series. The Astros have been dogged by leaving 21 men on base during these two games, victimized by outstanding and clutch Tampa Bay fielding plays and suffering bad luck and misfortune with some of their hard hit balls. Not that I feel sorry for the cheating Astros. But I do think they are due for a victory here. The starting pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA in five regular-season starts. This will be his third postseason start. The Rays have never faced him giving Urquidy the element of surprise. Yarbrough has never started a playoff game. The Astros rank in the top five against lefthanded pitching in batting average and a number of metric categories, including slugging percentage and OPS.
10-12-20	Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50	Top	27-30	Loss	-104	15 h 4 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually are the focal point. But give a close look to the trenches and that each team will be missing a key skill position player. When doing that this matchup spells Under to me. The Chargers rank 13th in scoring defense. They have a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa, good run-stuffing linebackers and a solid secondary. Michael Thomas will be missing his fourth straight game. There's a big drop from Thomas to the Saints' other wide receivers. Offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. New Orleans ranks sixth in run defense and 14th in pass defense. This is rookie Justin Herbert's first NFL dome game and just his second road start. He won't have Austin Ekeler, the Chargers' best running back, nor will he have his three best offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey is done for the season. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and right guard Trai Turner have been ruled out for this week. This means the Chargers have backups at three spots and their two left side offensive line starters, Sam Tevi and Forrest Lamp, are below average. Tevi ranks among the league's worst in missing pass blocks. Saints star pass rusher Cameron Jordan has the second-highest pressure rate in the league among defensive linemen. Despite being in different conferences, the teams have a familiarity. They have faced each other in joint practices the past couple of years. This should be a plus for the Under as neither team figures to get caught off-guard.
10-11-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216	Top	106-93	Win	100	35 h 48 m	Show
I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen.
10-11-20	Colts v. Browns +1.5		23-32	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager.
10-11-20	Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5	Top	23-16	Loss	-105	54 h 30 m	Show
The Panthers have shown they have plenty of weapons and can put up points despite missing Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater has the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore rank among the best wide receiver tandems in the league and Mike Davis has been solid filling in for McCaffrey. The Falcons are decimated in the secondary especially at safety. Atlanta is giving up 34.5 points per game, second-most in the NFL. Atlanta, though, can produce points with excellent skill position strength even if Julio Jones doesn't play. Veteran Matt Ryan can exploit a young Carolina defense. So I have no trouble envisioning each team producing at least 27 points especially playing inside Atlanta's fast-track dome.
10-11-20	Bengals +13 v. Ravens		3-27	Loss	-110	53 h 27 m	Show
The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
10-11-20	Cardinals -7 v. Jets		30-10	Win	100	53 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase.
10-11-20	Eagles v. Steelers -7		29-38	Win	100	53 h 24 m	Show
The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
10-10-20	Charlotte v. North Texas +3		49-21	Loss	-110	16 h 52 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense.
10-10-20	Kansas State +9 v. TCU	Top	21-14	Win	100	25 h 31 m	Show
Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic.
10-10-20	Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5	Top	28-30	Loss	-110	25 h 39 m	Show
Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
10-09-20	Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217	Top	111-108	Loss	-110	61 h 41 m	Show
By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again.
10-08-20	Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45	Top	19-20	Win	100	32 h 53 m	Show
Look for defense to rule here. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in run defense and give up the fourth fewest yards. The Bears have given up just three passing TD's, fewest in the league. Chicago also draws an extremely banged-up Tampa Bay offense. The Buccaneers won't have O.J. Howard and probably not Chris Godwin. They also could be minus running back Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy leaving plodding Ronald Jones to handle the running load. The Bucs' remaining wideouts - Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson - aren't at 100 percent either. Playing on Thursday really hurts the Bucs. The Bears are a below average running team and Nick Foles looked worse than Mitch Trubisky. Foles was really hurt with no preseason games to get his timing down with his new team. This will be just his second start with the Bears. I'm not expecting much.
10-08-20	Tulane v. Houston OVER 59	Top	31-49	Win	100	40 h 10 m	Show
Tulane defeated Houston, 38-31, in one of the wildest games of the season last year. Certainly those like myself, who had Houston plus 4, will never forget it. Much has changed since then. But one thing should remain the same: This should be another high-scoring game. Tulane has a very sharp offensive coordinator, Will Hall. The Green Wave posted their third-highest total in points (33.1) and yards (449.3) in Hall's first year last season. Tulane lost a lot of offensive talent from last season. It has taken three games, but Tulane has found its rhythm with the quarterback switch to freshman Michael Pratt. The Green Wave scored 59 points when Pratt took over at QB against Southern Mississippi in a 66-24 victory last week. Houston ranked near the bottom in the nation in total defense and pass defense, while surrendering 34 points a game last year. I mention last year's numbers, because the Cougars have yet to play this season due to three straight cancellations caused by COVID-19. The Cougars also feature an offensive mastermind in head coach Dana Holgorsen. QB Clayton Tune received plenty of experience last season after D'Eriq King sat out the last eight games before transferring to Miami. Tune has proven playmakers around him headed by Marquez Stevenson, one of the better senior wide receivers in college. This is a step up for Tulane's defense, which has gone against South Alabama, Navy and Southern Mississippi. Certainly, the Cougars will be fresh with lots of energy.
10-08-20	Braves v. Marlins +130		7-0	Loss	-100	12 h 28 m	Show
The Braves have outclassed the Marlins during the first two games of this playoff series. But now the Marlins are an enticing underdog facing elimination in a battle of young starting pitchers. I prefer Sixto Sanchez against Atlanta's Kyle Wright. These two pitchers went up against each other on Sept. 8. It was no contest: Miami won, 8-0. That game was in Atlanta. This matchup is at neutral site Houston. Sanchez displayed his vast potential during his last start. That came six days ago against the Cubs in the postseason. Sanchez held the Cubs scoreless in five innings posting six strikeouts. Miami won that game, 2-0. Wright made eight regular-season starts going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. Career-wise against Miami in three starts, Wright is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA.
10-07-20	Rays v. Yankees OVER 9	Top	8-4	Win	100	13 h 14 m	Show
Perhaps there is something to the theory of baseballs being juiced for the playoffs. The Rays and Yankees have played two games in their series. There have been 12 runs scored in each game. There also have been a combined 12 home runs! Now the Yankees are a top-five team in runs and homers, while the Rays have an above average offense, too. But these games are being played at neutral site Petco Park, which is the best pitching park in the majors. I'm going to ride this power parade with the full expectations that each team should be good for at least four runs apiece given their offenses and a starting pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Masahiro Tanka. The 36-year-old Morton hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of his starts this season. He's given up three earned runs in three of his last four starts. Giancarlo Stanton has a good history against Morton and Stanton is in a great power groove with five homers so far in the postseason. Tanka has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up six walks in his past two starts spanning eight innings. He's also surrendered nine homers this season in 48 innings.
10-06-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219	Top	102-96	Win	100	13 h 22 m	Show
We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all.
10-06-20	Yankees v. Rays -119		5-7	Win	100	15 h 37 m	Show
I see the Rays bouncing back from their Game 1 loss to the Yankees on Monday. The Rays are 8-3 versus the Yankees this season and hold a starting pitching edge in a matchup of Tyler Glasnow versus 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia. Glasnow has lived up to his high ceiling when he has been healthy, which he is now. Tampa Bay has won during each of Glasnow's last nine starts this year. Garcia had a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings this season. I'd rather take my chances with Glasnow and lay a little higher juice.
10-06-20	Aces +8.5 v. Storm		59-92	Loss	-110	15 h 41 m	Show
Down 0-2 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series, Las Vegas is in a must-win spot. Can the Aces remain alive? I don't know. I do know this is the most points they've gotten all season and I'm going to back them at this high number. Seattle has defeated Las Vegas by 13 points in each of the first two games. The Storm accomplished this by shooting 50 and 57 percent, respectively, from the floor. Las Vegas is a top-three defensive team. Seattle shot 47 percent from the field in the regular season. So I think the Storm's shooting percentage is coming down. The Aces outscored Seattle, 46-44, in the paint during Sunday's Game 2. The Storm, though, got to shoot 10 more free throws than Las Vegas. Maybe the free throw disparity won't be so great for this matchup especially after Aces coach Bill Laimbeer griped about it. Seattle is much deeper than Las Vegas. The Aces have had two games now to figure out they need to play at a slow pace and look to score inside instead of trying to trade baskets at a fast pace against Seattle. The Aces have league MVP A'ja Wilson. Even Laimbeer, who I consider a mediocre coach at best, should be able to figure that out. Who knows, maybe then the Aces could get Breanna Stewart in foul trouble. The Aces are 7-1 ATS following a loss and 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times playing on one day's rest.
10-05-20	Yankees v. Rays +137		9-3	Loss	-100	13 h 32 m	Show
I don't get the Rays being an underdog especially in this high of a range. Tampa Bay won the AL East Division title. The Rays achieved this in part by defeating the Yankees in eight of 10 meetings. Yeah, I get righthander Gerrit Cole is going for New York. But Cole struggled against the Rays this season posting a 4.96 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, while surrendering five homers. The Rays are 31-12 against righty starters. Tampa Bay also has won 10 of the last 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Yankees go against lefty Blake Snell, the former Cy Young Award winner who was solid this season with a 3.24 ERA. Snell gave up three runs on four hits to the Yankees this season in eight innings. Snell was sharp in his last start this past Tuesday holding the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 2/3 innings allowing only one hit and striking out nine. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters. They ranked 25th in batting average against southpaws. Note that the game is being played at San Diego's Petco Park. This neutral site favors the Rays because of the spacious dimensions and being the premier pitcher's park. The Yankees are the more powerful team so they're hurt more by the ballpark configurations.
10-04-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219	Top	104-115	Push	0	18 h 24 m	Show
The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has.
10-04-20	Bills -2.5 v. Raiders	Top	30-23	Win	100	125 h 14 m	Show
Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests.
10-04-20	Seahawks v. Dolphins +7		31-23	Loss	-120	123 h 57 m	Show
Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 45		31-38	Loss	-109	123 h 53 m	Show
It's not a big surprise the Under is 3-0 in Chargers' games this season. The Chargers under Anthony Lynn are a dead-nuts Under team. Lynn runs a conservative offense relying on a strong defense to win the overall field position battle. Lynn is not going to change that style especially with rookie QB Justin Herbert set to face the toughest defense he's ever seen. The Buccaneers have an upper level defense. They are fourth in takeaways and fourth in total yards. Tampa Bay led the NFL in run defense last season. This year they rank third. The Buccaneers' offense, though, remains a work-in-progress. Tom Brady is far less of a risk taker than Jameis Winston preferring short, safe throws instead of attacking over the top. Brady is still trying to get in sync with his new team. Brady is getting a downgrade in offensive lines from the ones he's had in New England.
10-04-20	Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team		31-17	Push	0	36 h 43 m	Show
The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
10-04-20	Chargers v. Bucs -6.5		31-38	Win	100	36 h 42 m	Show
The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
10-03-20	Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State	Top	30-37	Loss	-108	34 h 56 m	Show
I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
10-03-20	Auburn v. Georgia -6.5		6-27	Win	100	34 h 55 m	Show
Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points.
10-03-20	UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5		13-21	Loss	-104	27 h 47 m	Show
Both teams have well above average offenses and vulnerable defenses. UTSA averages 37.3 points and has a balanced attack. UAB puts up 33.7 points a game. The Blazers are balanced, too. San Antonio's Sincere McCormick and Birmingham's Spencer Brown are two of the best running backs in Conference USA. The Blazers rank 56th in run defense, while the Roadrunners rank 64th in pass defense. UTSA ranks 18th in rushing. The Blazers rate among the top 37 teams in the major offensive categories including total yards, scoring, passing and rushing.
10-02-20	Louisiana Tech v. BYU OVER 59	Top	14-45	Push	0	17 h 8 m	Show
This total is high, but not high enough given how balanced and deadly these two offenses are. Louisiana Tech QB Luke Anthony has thrown eight TD passes in two games spreading the ball around to a bevy of targets. The Bulldogs are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 48.5 points. BYU has scored 103 points in two games, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing. The Cougars rank second in the nation averaging 51.5 points. The Bulldogs have the offense to hang in for a while, but they could wilt down the stretch playing in mountain altitude leading to a lot of late scoring.
10-02-20	Cardinals +105 v. Padres		0-4	Loss	-100	8 h 55 m	Show
I'll take Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty against a motley crew of overworked Padres pitchers. The Padres' bullpen is extremely overworked after their first two game starters, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies, managed just a combined 4 1/3 innings. San Diego is in this jam because their two best starters, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, are injured. Flaherty didn't have the dominant season he had last year, but he's still darn good and has a strong history versus the Padres with a 1.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts. The Padres were averaging just 3.8 runs during their last 13 games until scoring 11 runs yesterday.
10-02-20	Storm -5 v. Aces		93-80	Win	100	37 h 6 m	Show
These were the two best teams in the WNBA this season so it's only fitting they meet in the championship series. But I believe Seattle has more going. The Storm have far more championship series experience than the Aces. Most of their players were on Seattle's 2018 WNBA championship squad. Las Vegas doesn't have that big-game pedigree. Seattle looked great in its last two games in sweeping its semifinal series against Minnesota that concluded this past Sunday. Las Vegas, on the other hand, had a full five-game grind-out semifinal series against Connecticut that wasn't decided until this past Tuesday with the Aces nipping the Sun, 66-63. The Aces trailed 2-1 in that series. The Aces suffered a key injury during that semifinal series losing Sixth Woman of the Year award winner Dearica Hamby with a knee injury. She's one of Las Vegas' top defenders. The Aces can only beat Seattle, the league's No. 2 scoring team, by playing outstanding defense. Seattle bench player Sami Whitcomb left the bubble so she's out of the series, too. But Hamby's loss is much more severe for Las Vegas. The Aces received no points from their bench in their last game against the Sun. Their three reserves combined to produce zero points and one assist while committing six turnovers and five fouls in a combined 24 minutes. Hamby averaged 25 minutes in the playoffs with a season average of 13 points and seven rebounds per game. The Storm have covered 23 of the last 34 times they've been favored. I believe they are the better team - as does the linemaker - and the situation is favorable to them.
10-02-20	Marlins v. Cubs -1.5		2-0	Loss	-100	13 h 30 m	Show
In Yu we trust. The Cubs are in must-win mode and going with their top pitcher, Yu Darvish. He had a Cy Young Award-type season going 8-3 in 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA. Darvish has been excellent for the Cubs now for the last 1 1/2 years posting a 2.40 ERA since last season's All-Star Game. Darvish could catch a big break if the Marlins' most dangerous hitter, Starling Marte, can't play after he got hit in the hand with a pitch on Wednesday. The Marlins are going with rookie Sixto Sanchez, who has a high ceiling but perhaps hit a rookie wall during his final two regular season starts when he gave up nine runs in seven innings.
10-01-20	Broncos +2 v. Jets	Top	37-28	Win	100	16 h 59 m	Show
Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good.
10-01-20	Reds +121 v. Braves		0-5	Loss	-100	9 h 9 m	Show
The Reds had the better starting pitcher going in Game 1 of this playoff series yesterday with Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati should have won, but lost 1-0 in 13 innings. The Reds outhit the Braves, 11-6, with three of Atlanta's hits coming in the 13th inning. Cincinnati stranded 13 baserunners going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. It was a highly frustrating loss not just for the underdog Reds, but anyone who had them on Wednesday me included. Now we have a similar situation. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going and once again are underdogs. Those two factors put me right back on Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has emerged as one of the National League's better pitchers during the last two years making the All-Star team last season. Castillo held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. Castillo is more proven than Ian Anderson, the Braves' highly promising rookie starter. This is just Anderson's seventh big league start. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Reds still have won 11 of their last 15 games.
09-30-20	Heat +5 v. Lakers	Top	98-116	Loss	-105	38 h 39 m	Show
Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire.
09-30-20	Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres		7-4	Win	100	15 h 21 m	Show
The Padres are less than thrilled starting Chris Paddack in this series opener. They wanted to go with Dinelson Lamet, but he left his last start this past Friday with tightness in his biceps. San Diego is worried about Paddack's lack of consistency. They have good reason to feel this way since Paddack has surrendered four or more runs while not reaching the sixth inning in four of his last eight starts. The Cardinals are starting Kwang Hyun Kim instead of ace Jack Flaherty. I understand the thinking behind this. Kim is a lefty, who the Padres have never faced. The Padres are 27-13 against righthanders, but just 10-10 versus southpaws. Kim is no slouch either going 3-0 this season with a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Padres are averaging 3.7 runs in their last nine games. Paddack could be on or off. So I'm going to take the extra half-run and lay juice believing this has the makings of a 4-3 type game.
09-30-20	White Sox v. A's -120	Top	3-5	Win	100	13 h 19 m	Show
The road White Sox were a sharp play against the A's in Tuesday's opening series game. But the dynamics are different for this Game 2 in a pitching matchup of lefty Dallas Keuchel versus Chris Bassitt. This isn't a fade on Keuchel, who has pitched well again this season. The A's, though, are 11-3 against lefties this season and Bassitt has been highly underrated. He's given up just one run during his last four starts spanning 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt has been particularly strong at home with a 0.72 ERA in six starts at Oakland Coliseum this season. The White Sox have lost the last seven times they've gone against a righty starter. Chicago also has lost the past six times it has been an underdog.
09-30-20	Reds +117 v. Braves		0-1	Loss	-100	11 h 36 m	Show
Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers.
09-29-20	Sun +4 v. Aces		63-66	Win	100	14 h 58 m	Show
I didn't like Bill Laimbeer as a player and I don't like him as a coach. Las Vegas may have better talent than Connecticut. The Aces have the league's MVP, A'ja Wilson. But I don't trust Laimbeer, nor the Aces, to win this deciding Game 5 of this WNBA semifinal. The Aces had to go all out this past Sunday to win Game 4 and force this deciding matchup. Connecticut didn't play a good game and Angel McCoughtry had the game of her life for Las Vegas shooting 13-for-22 from the floor for 29 points. I expect the Sun to play much better and don't believe McCoughtry can duplicate her Game 4 performance. She averaged 14.4 points during the regular season. Connecticut has covered eight of the last nine times following a loss. Las Vegas had all but one of its starters play more than 33 minutes on Sunday. Wilson played the entire game except for the final 26 seconds. The Aces had a strong bench during the regular season, but that's been considerably weakened without injured two-time Sixth Woman of the Year Dearica Hamby.
09-29-20	Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5	Top	1-3	Win	110	16 h 36 m	Show
Normally the Blue Jays would go with their top pitcher, Hyun Jin Ryu, in Game 1 of this playoff series. But Ryu is coming off a 100-pitch game against the Yankees this past Thursday. So Toronto doesn't want to use Ryu on only three day's rest. Instead the Blue Jays are going with Matt Shoemaker, who has pitched just three innings since Aug. 21 because of right shoulder injury. Shoemaker has a 4.71 ERA and figures to be rusty. He last pitched eight days ago. Tampa Bay is extremely tough at Tropicana Park. The Rays have won 40 of the last 53 times there for 75 percent. Tampa Bay is hot, too, going 9-2 in its past 11 games. Blake Snell gets the call for the Rays. Snell won the Cy Young Award three seasons ago and has been a solid 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA this season. He has a career 2.81 ERA versus Toronto in 13 starts.
09-28-20	Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54	Top	34-20	Push	0	13 h 46 m	Show
Yes this is a high total. But it's not high enough considering the teams and situation. It's rare to find the Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Over has covered five of the six times it has happened. The Chiefs should score more than 25 points having accomplished that 84 percent of the time when Mahomes has been the starter. Kansas City's offense potentially could be even better than last season with an upgrade at tailback with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs' defense has given up more than 6 yards per play in both of their games and face fatigue issues traveling West to East after being on the field for nearly 80 plays during last week's road overtime game against the Chargers. Kansas City is especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson is the best running QB in the NFL. The Ravens should encounter little resistance on the ground, which in turn will set up Jackson's passing. The Chargers rushed for 183 yards against the Chiefs. The Ravens are a far better running team. The Over should be helped, too, by rules skewed to high-scoring games and official's calling less penalties this season.
09-28-20	Lightning v. Stars OVER 5		2-0	Loss	-138	12 h 33 m	Show
There's a reason why so much juice is attached to this 5 total. There haven't fewer than five goals scored during any of the five previous games played in this Stanley Cup championship series. I'm going to ride that trend here with the high-scoring Lightning, who led the NHL in scoring during the regular season and are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. Dallas has shown it can be aggressive with attacking defensemen to go with high-scoring veteran centers and forwards. The Stars have scored 3 or more goals in four of their last six games. This has been an Over series for a long time with the high end cashing 77 percent of the time during the past 26 meetings. Tampa Bay leads the series 3-2 and is heavily favored in this game. So if the Stars are trailing with time running out they are likely to pull their goalie and keep him out even if falling behind by two goals since they have nothing to lose.
09-28-20	Lightning -1.5 v. Stars		2-0	Win	165	12 h 31 m	Show
I give a lot of credit to Dallas. Few, if anybody, expected the Stars to reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. I had the Stars at a nice plus price in their Game 5 double-overtime victory this past Saturday. The teams played that game without rest. Now they've had one day in between games. That's enough for the Lightning to end this series. Tampa Bay has defeated Dallas in eight of the last 11 meetings. Since Game 2, the Lightning have outplayed the Stars throughout much of the series. Tampa Bay has won 41 of the last 53 times when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Lightning also are a perfect 6-0 following a loss in the playoffs. The Stars have shown a lot of toughness and resilience especially having to go with backup goalie Anton Khudobin, who has been far better than expected in this series. But time has run out on Dallas and Khudobin. I see the Lightning ending the series with a multiple goal victory.
09-27-20	Packers v. Saints -3		37-30	Loss	-110	82 h 52 m	Show
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal.
09-27-20	Bucs -6 v. Broncos		28-10	Win	100	78 h 23 m	Show
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies.
09-27-20	Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 42.5		28-10	Win	100	38 h 41 m	Show
Take out Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay and Denver's offense isn't so promising. Instead the Broncos face a run-stuffing elite Tampa Bay defense with nothing but dink-and-dunk backup QB Jeff Drisel and Melvin Gordon. The Bucs led the NFL in run defense last season and held their first two foes, Saints and Panthers, to 2.5 yards rushing. Gordon isn't nearly as good a back as Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Buccaneers also have excellent pass rushers headed by former Bronco Shaq Barrett, who led the NFL in sacks last season. I envision the Broncos going very conservative here with their conservative coach, defensive-minded Vic Fangio. Fangio probably is one of the three best defensive coaches in the NFL. Denver's defense is not dominant anymore, but it remains respectable. The Broncos defense catches Tampa Bay at a good time. The Buccaneers' offense is not yet in sync as they transition in Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette. The Bucs aren't the pass-happy team of a year ago when Jameis Winston was under center. They are more balanced now with Fournette, a ground-and-pound inside running back. Brady hasn't been overly sharp. He's thrown interceptions in his last four games and is averaging 228 passing yards in his first two games with Tampa Bay. Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions either with heavy winds expected.
09-27-20	Raiders v. Patriots -6	Top	20-36	Win	100	76 h 53 m	Show
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat.
09-27-20	Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46		23-23	Push	0	75 h 25 m	Show
Scoring is on a record pace this season in the NFL aided by the official's calling far fewer penalties, which probably is by league design. So to get this total before it hits 47 - a key totals number - is a real plus. Joe Burrow continues to impress. He's looked very good both with his throwing and mobility. Burrow has the targets and a good running back, Joe Mixon, to keep the Eagles off-balance. The Eagles have a vulnerable secondary and Burrow has the receivers to take advantage. The Eagles are due for a big-scoring game. This is a right opponent for that to happen. The Bengals surrender 5.5 yards per run - good news for Miles Sanders - and have just one sack, great news for a banged-up Eagles offensive line and Carson Wentz.
09-27-20	49ers v. Giants +4		36-9	Loss	-115	55 h 45 m	Show
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation.
09-27-20	Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns		20-34	Loss	-117	34 h 15 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog.
09-26-20	Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215	Top	107-117	Loss	-110	29 h 28 m	Show
Twice the Nuggets have dug themselves out of a 3-1 playoff series hole beating the Clippers and Jazz. No NBA team had ever done that twice during the same postseason. Denver is gutty and resilient. The Nuggets may be out of gas, too. This will be Denver's 19th playoff game. No team has played that many this season. I'm not going to go against the Nuggets here. They've earned too much respect. But if the Lakers don't get them, fatigue might. So I believe the right choice is Under the total. The Nuggets play to the second-lowest pace of any of the original 16 playoff teams. That's not going to change here. Denver knows it has to keep the Lakers out of transition in order to limit fast break points, which is an edge LA has on the Nuggets. Look for the Nuggets to play slow and deliberate. The Lakers aren't a helter skelter team either. They ranked ninth of the 16 playoff teams in tempo. Denver doesn't have a big scoring bench. The Nuggets heavily rely on emerging star Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for their offense. The Lakers, however, finally may have found the right solution to slowing down Murray - having LeBron James guard him. This was the case during the fourth quarter of the last game. The Nuggets didn't score on eight of 10 fourth quarter possessions when James was on Murray. During this span, Murray was 0-for-3 from the field. Murray, who is averaging nearly 40 minutes per game during the playoffs, clearly was bothered by James' physical style of defense. It's a double-edged sword, though, for the Lakers because it also tires out James to play such strong defense on Murray. James has to sacrifice some of his prolific offense to make this defense sacrifice. All of this is great for the Under. As for Jokic, the Lakers have several big bodies and fouls to deal with him. So he's not going to get any easy baskets.
09-26-20	Stars +145 v. Lightning		3-2	Win	145	12 h 13 m	Show
Less than 24 hours after the Lightning's controversial, 5-4, overtime victory against the Stars on Friday night the teams are back in action today. This is unusual scheduling, which could lead to a randomness element to the game. Randomness is a plus for the underdog. Sure the Stars could quit after suffering a tough defeat in such a short time frame. But they also could come out extremely fired out. This is their playoff life after all being on the verge of elimination down 3-1. Dallas has proven resilient all season. There's more of a chance, I feel, that the Lightning could suffer a letdown coming off such a big win in such a short period of time. Tampa Bay has to feel very good up 3-1 in the series. The Stars have not been outclassed. They won Game 1 by three goals. They've lost two games by one goal each, including this past one in overtime after leading by two goals. The Stars have not peaked. They are capable of playing better. This would be the perfect time to show that.
09-26-20	Kansas v. Baylor -17.5		14-47	Win	100	26 h 28 m	Show
Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
09-26-20	Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU		7-50	Loss	-110	26 h 60 m	Show
SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
09-26-20	Iowa State v. TCU +3		37-34	Push	0	21 h 31 m	Show
I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football.
09-25-20	Reds v. Twins -142	Top	7-2	Loss	-142	12 h 53 m	Show
The Twins, behind Jose Berrios, should take care of business at home against the Reds. Minnesota is 23-5 (82 percent) at home. That's the best home mark in baseball. The Reds have a losing road record. Berrios has a history of pitching his best at Target Field. He has a 2.67 ERA there this season holding batters to a .168 batting average. Berrios is in outstanding form, too, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts this month. Cincinnati has had a down year from many of its hitters. The Reds rank 30th in batting average and 28th in runs scored. The Reds also don't win when Tyler Mahle pitches. Mahle has a career Reds record of 13-25. His road ERA is 4.97 this season and he can be homer-prone. The Twins set a record for most homers last season and rank fifth in home runs this year. Minnesota won't lack incentive either being just one-half game ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central.
09-24-20	Aces -5 v. Sun		68-77	Loss	-110	10 h 45 m	Show
Having not played in a week, Las Vegas was ambushed, 87-62, by Connecticut in the opening game of this semifinal series. Back to their normal routine two days later in Game 2, the Aces defeated the Sun, 83-75, this past Tuesday. Connecticut had no answer for league MVP A'ja Wilson, who scored 29 points and blocked seven shots. Worse, the Sun lost their best all-around player, Alyssa Thomas, to an arm injury. Thomas leads Connecticut in assists and was second on the team in scoring and rebounding during the postseason. She could be the Sun's most indispensable player. She's not expected to play. The Aces are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day's rest. They are the superior team, they are back to a normal routine and they draw the Sun minus their best all-around player.
09-24-20	Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48	Top	31-13	Loss	-110	20 h 57 m	Show
Through two weeks, the NFL is on a record scoring pace with an average of 50.4 points per game. That's the highest mark since the 1970 merger between the AFL and NFL. It's not a fluke. There is new leadership in the NFL's officiating department. It's clear their emphasis - perhaps league mandated -- is to only call obvious penalties. Because penalties are at their fewest in 18 years. This has helped result in Overs covering 66 percent at 21-11. I expect another Over in this matchup being a nationally televised stand alone Thursday night game featuring offenses that are much better than their defenses. Jacksonville is a top-10 scoring team averaging 28.5 points. Gardner Minshew has underrated receiving targets and running back James Robinson has been one of the season's early surprises. The Dolphins have faced quarterbacks Cam Newton and Josh Allen. Neither is known for their accuracy. Miami allowed them to go 39-of-54 passing for 72.2 percent with a 10.6 yards per attempt and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those two combined to rush for nearly 100 yards, too, with two rushing touchdowns. Miami is likely to be without its top cornerback also as Byron Jones has a groin injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good quarterback to have going for you when he's going against a bad defense and you're betting an Over. Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw deep. He attacks and also is careless with the ball resulting in interceptions. Fitzpatrick should be throwing a lot because Miami has a bad run-blocking offensive line and the Jaguars once strong secondary has been gutted. Jacksonville only has two sacks, too. This is a far easier defense for Fitzpatrick to solve after Miami opened against the Patriots and Bills. The Jaguars gave up 363 passing yards to the Colts in Week 1 and were torched for four TD passes by Ryan Tannehill last Sunday.
09-24-20	Orioles +136 v. Red Sox		13-1	Win	136	14 h 24 m	Show
The Red Sox have had some great years. This isn't one of them. Boston has a worse record than Baltimore. So I'm not buying the Red Sox being this large of a favorite against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus lefty Martin Perez. Both are lower-tier rotation type starters. Cobb was solid in his last outing giving up two runs on four hits in six innings this past Friday against the Rays. He's been solid, too, in two starts versus Boston this season giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings. Cobb's 4.76 season ERA is lower than Perez's lifetime ERA against the Orioles. Note, too, that the Orioles are a .500 team when going against a southpaw starter.
09-23-20	Celtics -3 v. Heat	Top	109-112	Loss	-107	13 h 20 m	Show
The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break.
09-23-20	Lightning v. Stars OVER 5		5-2	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin fell back to Earth giving up three first period goals in Tampa Bay's 3-2 Game 2 Stanley Cup Finals win against the Stars on Monday. The Lightning led the NHL in scoring during the regular season averaging 3.5 goals a game. Their puck movement was much better than it had been in Game 1, which was won by Dallas, 4-1. Tampa Bay seems to have its attack back on track and shouldn't get so conservative and defensive-minded if building up an early lead again like it did on Monday. Tampa Bay would catch a break, too, if Dallas' Blake Comeau is out. Comeau is one of the Stars' better defensive forwards. He's a plus for the Under not the Over. Comeau is a game-time decision after getting injured in the last game. The Stars realize now they aren't going to win if they never go on the attack. The Lightning are too deep and too talented. Dallas is averaging 4 goals a game following a playoff loss. So I expect to see the Stars play aggressive like they did against the Avalanche and to effectively counterpunch like they did against the Golden Knights.
09-23-20	Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5		1-6	Loss	-108	8 h 1 m	Show
It's taken all season, but the Brewers' bats have heated up. Milwaukee is averaging 6.3 runs in its last eight games. The Reds should do plenty of scoring drawing Adrian Houser. He hasn't been good since his first two starts of the season. Since then Houser's gone 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA. Houser has a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts not getting out of the fifth inning in any of those starts. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in homers. Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. The total is less than 9,though, because Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Reds. He's been outstanding this year. However, this is the first time all season Bauer is pitching on three day's rest. Bauer was tagged for two homers in a 5-0 loss to the White Sox this past Saturday. Those pitches weren't mistake pitches either. Bauer said they were in the location he wanted. That's a red flag that maybe Bauer will be vulnerable pitching on less rest than normal.
09-22-20	Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5		106-114	Win	100	12 h 4 m	Show
If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential.
09-22-20	Rays -122 v. Mets	Top	2-5	Loss	-122	20 h 59 m	Show
The Mets have to be way down after their playoff chances were dealt a big blow with a 2-1 home loss to the Rays on Monday. The Mets had Jacob deGrom going in that game while the Rays went with an opener, a strategy their manager, Kevin Cash, came up with a couple of years ago and that has been widely copied. The Mets were 12-2 in deGrom's previous 14 starts. Now the Mets have to deal with lefty Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Mets are 6-14 versus lefty starters this season. They have scored a combined three runs in three of their last four games. Snell is having a strong September with a 2.87 ERA. He's given up one run during his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Snell also is 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is 18-10 on the road. The Mets are 12-16 at home. The Mets are slated to start Seth Lugo, who is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Lugo is off a terrible performance against the Phillies where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in 1 1/2 innings this past Thursday.
09-22-20	Sun v. Aces -5		75-83	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Either Las Vegas or Seattle is the best team in the WNBA. But a funny thing happened to the Aces on their way to the WNBA Finals: They got ambushed by Connecticut in Game 1 of their semifinal series. This wasn't just an upset by the Sun, but a huge butt-kicking. Las Vegas lost in embarrassing fashion, 87-62, as 6-point favorites. The Aces had been idle for a week. They came into that Game 1 on Sunday overconfident based on their 18-4 regular season record and plenty rusty. It showed. I don't expect that to be the case again. The Aces should assert their superiority led by league MVP A'ja Wilson. Las Vegas has not lost two in a row all season. The Aces are 8-1 ATS when playing with one day's rest. Jasmine Thomas shot lights out for the Sun in that opening series game scoring 31 points on 13 of 18 shooting from the field. Thomas averaged 10.2 points during the regular season. Afterward Wilson was quoted as saying the Aces needed to get slapped in the face like that and "...The best thing about this loss is there's a lot of things we can control, and that's what we're going to do."
09-21-20	Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49	Top	24-34	Loss	-110	63 h 38 m	Show
The Saints have an excellent defense with tremendous depth. It's their offense, though, that gets most of the attention. New Orleans' offense, however, isn't going to be as good as Michael Thomas is out with a high ankle sprain. There's a huge drop from Thomas, maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL, to the rest of the Saints' wideouts. The Raiders' defense is young, but has potential. It's a better unit now that underrated safety and sparkplug Jonathan Abram is healthy. He had 13 tackles in Week 1. The Saints should be able to keep Derek Carr and Las Vegas' offense in check. Carr is more game manager than gunslinger having reached 300 yards passing just once in his last 20 starts. The Saints' defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen, who is familiar with Carr having been the Raiders' head coach from 2012-2014.
09-21-20	Stars v. Lightning -147		2-3	Win	100	14 h 15 m	Show
Each time Tampa Bay has lost a playoff game it came back to win the next game. I expect that pattern to continue in Game 2 of this Stanley Cup Final. So does the linemaker making the Lightning this high of a favorite. This goes to my way of thinking that the Lightning are the superior team. They certainly won't lack focus after being ambushed, 4-1, in Game 1 this past Saturday. The Stars dominated the first two periods of that game being the much fresher team. Dallas was idle for four days previous to that matchup, while the Lightning had just concluded their series against the Islanders with an overtime victory on Thursday night. The Lightning seemed to figure out the Stars in the third period posting 22 shots on goal while dominating the period. Dallas has done great to reach this point. This isn't a fade on the Stars as it is more a play on the Lightning based that they will play a much crisper and better game than they did during the first two periods of Game 1 when fatigue was an issue for them. Even with that defeat, the Lightning still have defeated the Stars in five of the past seven meetings
09-21-20	Stars v. Lightning OVER 5		2-3	Push	0	14 h 14 m	Show
Until I see a 5 1/2, I'm going to fire on the Over. A 5 total is too low on a Tampa Bay game. The Lightning led the league in scoring at 3.5 goals a game. They were flat and tired during the first two periods of Game 1 this past Saturday. That's because they had just taken out the pesky Islanders in overtime on Thursday night. The Lightning showed their offense in the third period firing 22 shots on goal. Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin has been playing well above his head. You wonder how long his magic can last? The Stars' defensemen were more aggressive in counter attacking in Game 1. Unlike other defensive-minded teams like the Islanders, the Stars can play an offensive style. They have the veteran goal scorers to produce high scoring games. The Over won in six of the seven games the Avalanche-Stars played in their series.
09-20-20	Patriots +4 v. Seahawks		30-35	Loss	-108	35 h 45 m	Show
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact.
09-20-20	Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers	Top	23-20	Loss	-106	86 h 27 m	Show
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs -9		17-31	Win	100	83 h 59 m	Show
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot.
09-20-20	Panthers v. Bucs OVER 47.5		17-31	Win	100	83 h 58 m	Show
There were 64 points scored in Carolina's 34-30 opening week loss to the Raiders. Those kinds of Overs are going to be typical in Panthers games this season. Carolina has the worst defense in the league and an up-tempo offense with the top all-purpose back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey. That combination is going to produce a lot of Overs. Tom Brady and his left tackle Donovan Smith didn't play well opening week against the Saints on the road. Now the Buccaneers drop well down in class. Those two are in good position to atone for their poor performances. Brady and his bevy of high-caliber receivers should light up an inexperienced Panthers defense that allowed game-manager type Derek Carr to have an 8.0 YPA and failed to record not only a sack, but failed to even get a quarterback hit. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in their last 29 games. Brady is most comfortable in the pocket. He shouldn't be bothered. Brady with time still is a high level quarterback. Carolina should contribute to this total going Over, too. The Panthers have an aggressive spread-the-ball around passing approach and a new deep threat, Robby Anderson. McCaffrey is a major plus because defenses key on him rather than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
09-20-20	Giants +5.5 v. Bears		13-17	Win	100	31 h 28 m	Show
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
09-19-20	Celtics v. Heat OVER 206	Top	117-106	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
Understandably this is playoff basketball so totals are going to be low. But the Celtics aren't playing the Raptors here. Miami isn't the defensive team that Toronto was. The Celtics are sure to be fired-up after blowing huge leads in the first two games to fall behind 0-2. If Boston builds up another big lead it won't coast. The Celtics will stay on the attack. There's also the chance Gordon Hayward makes his series debut. That would give Boston a legitimate fourth scoring weapon to go with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, who shot much better in Game 2. The Heat defense got through the Bucks because Milwaukee lacked a quickness advantage. The Heat don't have that edge on the Celtics. Miami, though, has been getting the needed contributions from players besides Jimmy Butler. The Heat scored 106 in the last game despite Butler shooting just 4-of-11 from the floor and scoring a meager 14 points. Miami's motion-laden offense has been successful exploiting Walker's weak defense. The Heat have averaged 109.7 points in regulation during their last seven games facing the Celtics and Bucks, who gave up the eighth-fewest points and ranked first in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. If the Heat are able to build up a big lead, I could envision a bubbling-over frustrated Celtics team committing a lot of fouls.
09-19-20	Stars v. Lightning OVER 5		4-1	Push	0	17 h 18 m	Show
Tampa Bay is the better team, but I'm not going to buck the hot Stars especially since the Lightning have a short turnaround after their Thursday overtime victory against the Islanders to clinch that series. So instead of getting involved with a side, I'm going the total route where I see each team producing at least two goals apiece. I highly doubt backup Stars goalie Anton Khudobin can repeat the magic he did against the Golden Knights when he stopped 153 of 161 shots for a .950 save percentage. The Lightning have a more potent attack than Las Vegas and they have their top playoff scorer, Brayden Point, back in the lineup. There's even the outside chance Steven Stamkos could suit up. He has yet to play during the Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.3 goals during the playoffs. This is in line with the regular season when the Lightning led the NHL in scoring at 3.5 goals per game. The Lightning has three attacking lines and scoring depth up and down their roster. Dallas has shown it can play and win with a wide open style. The Stars took out the Avalanche in that fashion. It wouldn't surprise me if the well-rested Stars came out super aggressive to take advantage of Tampa Bay's fatigue issue.
09-19-20	Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	49-21	Win	100	25 h 54 m	Show
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
09-19-20	UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +16.5		34-31	Win	100	21 h 23 m	Show
Louisiana Lafayette cracked The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1943 after upsetting Iowa State, 31-14, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs. That's heady stuff. But it also puts the Cajuns in a tough spot this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia State. The Panthers are respectable having gone to a bowl two of the last three years under coach Shawn Elliott. They opened with a victory against Tennessee of the SEC last season on their way to a winning record. The Panthers have 16 starters back. Not to diminish the Cajuns' huge upset of the Cyclones, but they did score touchdowns on a 95-yard kickoff return and 83-yard punt return.
09-19-20	Syracuse +21 v. Pittsburgh		10-21	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
I don't want to overreact to these team's opening games. Pittsburgh destroyed Austin Peay while Syracuse got buried in the fourth quarter by North Carolina. But I do keep in mind that Austin Peay isn't a Division I team while North Carolina is a top-25 team. So Pittsburgh definitely is stepping up in class. I don't trust Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi to cover a big margin because I'm never sold on his offenses and I'm not a fan of Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. The Panthers also have a bad record as home chalk - 8-19 ATS the past 27 times in that role. I recall last September when Pittsburgh hosted Delaware. The Panthers were 27 1/2-point favorites. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Panthers to eke out a 17-14 victory. I expect Syracuse to play a full four quarters, something it didn't against North Carolina. The Orangemen were hanging in through three quarters in that matchup before the game got out of hand.
09-18-20	Padres v. Mariners +1.5		6-1	Loss	-101	16 h 16 m	Show
On the surface, the oddsmaker seems justified making the Padres this big of a road favorite against a bad team in a pitching matchup of righty Chris Paddack versus lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was a terrible pitcher last year and has a 5.35 ERA this season. But there are factors pointing to the Mariners hanging in if not winning outright. Seattle is home where they are an above .500 team. The Mariners have won seven of the last eight times when going against a righty starter. Paddack left his most recent start because he suffered an ankle injury. Paddack may not be 100 percent. He also is not pitching as well as he did earlier in the season. Paddack has yielded five earned runs in his last 6 2/3 innings. Kikuchi isn't as bad as he was last season when he was introduced to the major leagues. His velocity is higher this season and he's cut way back on giving up homers. He also has 39 strikeouts in 37 innings. Kikuchi defeated the Padres, 8-3, in San Diego on Aug. 27 The Padres are 24-11 against righthanded starting pitching, but just 8-8 when facing lefty starters.
09-18-20	Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5	Top	114-126	Win	100	56 h 49 m	Show
Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps.