| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 06-28-17 | Phillies v. Mariners -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
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Can the Phillies defeat the Mariners twice in a row at Safeco Field? The answer is a resounding no and I'm willing to lay 1 1/2 runs to back this opinion. Philadelphia is the worst team in the majors. A big reason for this is the Phillies' inability to win on the road. Going back to last season, Philadelphia is a hidieous 12-40 during its last 52 away contests - and that includes beating Seattle last night. The Mariners have won 18 of their last 29 games while averaging more than six runs per game during this span. They have far too much offense for Mark Leiter Jr., who is set to make his second big league start here. Leiter is a converted reliever, who had a 4.74 ERA in 19 innings. This included giving up 14 walks in 19 innings. Seattle starter Felix Hernandez looked good in his return from the DL this past Friday. He beat the Astros giving up three runs in six innings. Now he steps down from the best team to the worst team. The Mariners have won nine of Hernandez's last 11 home starts.
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| 06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
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Atlanta rookie starter Sean Newcomb has shown a lot of promise in three home starts. But he's an unknown commodity on the road. This is his first away big league start. Petco Park is the premier pitcher's park in the majors, but it has gotten better for the hitters. The Padres are averaging 5.2 runs in their last nine home games. Padres starter Jhoulys Chacin has pitched far better at Petco than on the road where his ERA is a fat 9.08. Chacin is Chacin, though, a journeyman pitcher. There should not be a total lower than eight attached to his name. Chacin made five starts for the Braves last season so Atlanta is familiar with him. The Braves were shut out in their last game, but averaged 6.5 runs during their previous 12 games. Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips are enjoying huge comeback seasons for the Braves both batting above .300 as is Ender Inciarte, one of the more underrated players in the league. Neither bullpen can be trusted either.
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| 06-27-17 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
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I don't trust Jose Quintana to win games. But I do trust the lefty to pitch well. Quintana is back on his game allowing only six runs in his last four starts while posting a 2.25 ERA during this span. The under has cashed in 10 of Quintana's last 14 starts. The Yankees hit righties far better than lefties with a .242 batting average versus southpaws. Luis Severino has turned the corner this season becoming a solid starter with star potential. He has a 3.30 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings. The Yankees have one of the best bullpens now that Arolidis Chapman is back healthy and Chicago has an underrated bullpen. The weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's-to-low-70's with a light wind. So the pitching conditions are not bad.
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| 06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
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Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the American League. Jose Berrios is showing signs of becoming an elite pitcher, living up to his huge potential. I find the opening total on this game a run too high. So I'm jumping on the under taking advantage of what I see as a rare oddsmaker mistake. There's a reason the under is 10-1-1 during Berrios' last 12 starts. Berrios has been tremendous since returning to the majors. He has a 2.67 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and a 54-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54 innings. Berrios is 4-0 with a 2.84 ERA in four road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him giving Berrios an element of surprise. Boston has scored four or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. The Red Sox were just held to two runs by the Angels' Parker Bridwell, Blake Parker and Yusmeiro Petit in a 4-2 loss Sunday. Boston could manage only eight hits off that less than inspiring trio. Sale is a monster with a 9-3 mark and 2.85 ERA. He went into Sunday leading the majors in strikeouts with 146. Only once in his last eight starts has Sale permitted more than three earned runs. The Twins have been held to four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. There shouldn't be any problem with the weather either as the forecast is for light wind and partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the 70s.
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| 06-25-17 | Mets v. Giants -134 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
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The record shows Matt Moore to be 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA. His Giants have lost 11 of 12 and are in danger of being swept at home by the Mets. So why get involved with the Giants especially when laying a mid-sized price? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. There's a reason why the Giants are favored here. Moore pitches much better at home and in day games. His road ERA is 8.39. At AT&T Park his ERA is 3.07. Moore has a 3.23 ERA in day games. His ERA at night rises to 8.02. I also like what I saw from Moore during his last start. That was at Atlanta this past Tuesday. Moore allowed three runs in seven innings with six strikeouts and one walk in getting the victory in a 6-3 win. Moore was shelled in his prior start before beating the Braves, but that came at Coors Field. The Mets have swept just one series this season. They caught the Giants in a bad spot during the first two games of the series because San Francisco had to fly back from Atlanta late Thursday following a long rain delay. The Giants are settled in now and embarrassed about their poor season. This is a crucial homestand for them. The biggest thing the Giants have going today is facing Rafael Montero. The Mets are down several starters so they're forced to bring Montero in from the bullpen to make a spot start. Montero is dreadful. He's lucky to only have a 6.49 ERA considering he's given up 36 hits and 19 walks in just 26 1/3 innings.
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| 06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres -102 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
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I once liked Anibal Sanchez. But that was back in his prime when he pitched for the Marlins. The 33-year-old Sanchez has been with the Tigers the past five seasons. His ERA was 4.99 two years ago. It was 5.87 last year. This season it's 9.35. Detroit has lost seven consecutive games, the most losses the Tigers have suffered in a row all season. The Padres are one of the worst teams in the majors. But they are a .500 club at home and the Tigers definitely are worth fading right now. Sanchez had been so bad in 11 relief appearances, the Tigers shipped him to the minors. This is his second start since returning to Detroit. The Tigers are 3-11 in Sanchez's past 14 road starts. Padres starter, 24-year-old Dinelson Lamet, is an intriguing rookie with tremendous stuff. He has 37 strikeouts in 24 innings and will be making his sixth big league start. Command and giving up the long ball have hurt him. But the Tigers have never seen Lamet, who will be helped throwing in spacious Petco Park. The Tigers remain without injured Victor Martinez, who isn't scheduled to play again until Tuesday because of an irregular heart beat.
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| 06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC UNDER 59.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
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The quarterbacks, Mike Reilly and Jonathon Jennings, and offenses of these two teams get the publicity and hype. The defenses aren't getting enough respect. BC linebacker Solomon Elimimian might be the best defensive player in the CFL. BC has made some changes in its offensive line. Edmonton has beefed up its pass rush. Jennings threw a league-high 15 interceptions last season. I envision these teams not being as sharp offensively as perceived in this opening week matchup. Edmonton and BC met twice last season and each time the total fell under 60 points. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Eskimos have been a road 'dog.
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| 06-23-17 | Mets +106 v. Giants | Top | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
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There are many reasons to like the underdog Mets here. Situation, pitching matchup and the possibility the Giants are going to be without their two best offensive players head the list. Let's begin with the spot. It's terrible for the Giants. They had to play a night game in Atlanta Thursday night, losing 11-10 . The game was delayed nearly 1 1/2 hours because of rain. So the Giants didn't get home from the long journey until this morning. They've been on the road for eight days. Not only are they going be down physically, but their focus and concentration figure to be off, too. It was unfair the Giants had to play a night game, not a day game on Thursday, knowing they had to return home to play tonight. Things are made worse for them by the long rain delay. Because of this, there's the strong chance the Giants will rest star catcher Buster Posey, who has played 10 straight days. San Francisco also likely is to be missing Eduardo Nunez. He's been dealing with a hamstring injury and could go on the DL. Nunez is second to Posey in team batting and has 17 steals. No other Giant has more than six steals. The Mets have been in California having just wrapped up a three-game series with the Dodgers. The Mets have a better road record than home mark. San Francisco is four games below .500 at home. The pitching matchup is Seth Lugo versus Ty Blach. Lugo is no Tyler Pill. In other words, he's not a stiff, but a below-the-radar, underrated pitcher who is overlooked because he's been out with an elbow injury and the Mets are loaded with good, young arms. This will be Lugo's third start of the season since returning from injury. He has a 2.63 ERA. The Giants rank last in the majors in runs scored and second-to-last in homers. I'm expecting a strong performance from Lugo. Blach started out well in replacing injured Madison Bumgarner. Lately, though, the opposition has adjusted to Blach as he's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last three starts. The weather forecast is for wind to blow out to left field at around 15 mph making right-handed Yoenis Cespedes the most dangerous hitter in the game.
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| 06-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal UNDER 50 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
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Only one team scored fewer points than Montreal last year. The Alouettes averaged just 19.2 points during their last five games and were held to fewer than 21 points in 13 of their last 18 games. Montreal, though, did give up the second-fewest points in the CFL last year. You can say it was just a preseason game. But Saskatchewan looked absolutely dreadful in its final exhibition matchup this past Friday losing 42-10 to B.C. The Roughriders had 13 two-and-outs. They didn't pick up their initial first down until 38:31 and only had six first downs all game. The Roughriders aren't going to fix their offense until they fix an offensive line that drew six penalties against B.C. and could be missing veteran guard Brendon LaBatte due to a sprained ankle. I don't see that happening in just six days. |
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| 06-22-17 | Cubs -122 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
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Granted, Jake Arrieta isn't the same pitcher he was in 2015 when he won the NL Cy Young Award. Arrieta is 6-5 with a 4.64 ERA. His fastball velocity is down to 91.8 mph from 93.8 last year. But Arrieta still rates a strong edge against Marlins starter Jeff Locke and the defending world champions still are much superior to the Marlins. Arrieta has a good track record versus Miami with a 1.42 ERA in three career starts. He'll be helped pitching at Marlins Park, a pitcher's park. Locke may be the worst player ever to appear in an All-Star game. He's 0-2 with a 4.58 in four starts this season after coming off the DL. The southpaw is 1-5 lifetime against the Cubs with a 5.98 ERA in 13 appearances, including 11 starts. Wildness is an issue with Locke and the Cubs draw the most walks versus lefties of any team. It's one of the reasons why the Cubs have won 63 percent of their games against lefty starters this season.
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| 06-22-17 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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I put Minnesota's Nik Turley at the head of my list of worst starting pitchers. The 27-year-old journeyman has been with nearly half of the organizations in the majors leagues and that's not an exaggeration. It's amazing Turley still is in the Twins' starting rotation. Fading Turley at this low lay price is a gift. White Sox starter Jose Quintana is respectable. He's coveted in the trade market. Quintana is in decent form, too, with a 3.12 ERA in three starts this month. Turley has made two starts. He's been hammered in both of them by the weak-hitting Giants and Indians. His ERA is 12.46. Opponents are batting a mind-boggling.436 against him. The White Sox should have some motivation trying to avoid a series sweep. The Twins haven't swept an opponent at home since hosting the Royals to start the season. Minnesota is eight games under .500 at home this season, dropping 10 of their last 14 at Target Field.
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| 06-21-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Pirates have halted the Brewers' momentum winning the first two games of this series at Miller Park. Milwaukee has left a staggering 34 runners on base during the series. Look for things to change today in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Junior Guerra. I'm not a fan of Williams, who has a 5.16 ERA on the season. His road ERA is nearly 5.00 in seven away appearances, including four starts. Guerra is below-the-radar. He's the Brewers' second-most consistent pitcher. Opponents are batting only .191 against him and he has a 2.84 ERA on the year. Guerra has a lifetime 1.42 ERA versus Pittsburgh in four appearances, including three starts. The Brewers have a strong track record when Guerra pitches against sub .500 opponents winning nine of the last 11 times. The Pirates could be without starting catcher Franciso Cervelli. He missed yesterday's game due to flu-like symptoms. The Brewers have dominated the Pirates at home through the years, winning 72 percent of their last 87 home games against them.
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| 06-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
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The Over is 10-4-1 in the Rangers' last 15 home games. This isn't surprising. As the weather gets warmer, the ball carries much better in Arlington. We have a high total today in Arlington, where the temperature is expected to reach the 90-degree mark. But it's still worth going Over - and not just because of the humidity. The pitching matchup is Joe Biagini against Tyson Ross. Biagini may not be sticking in the Blue Jays' starting rotation too much longer. He's 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his past three starts. Biagini's declining velocity was on display in his last start when he was shelled for seven runs on eight innings in just one inning against the White Sox this past Friday. Sparked by the return of Carlos Gomez from the DL, Texas has averaged seven runs during its last five games. Gomez has three homers and nine RBI during this span. The Blue Jays should do their share of damage versus Ross, who is making only his second start after missing the first 2 1/2 months of the season with a shoulder injury. Ross pitched only once last year before suffering shoulder woes. So he's rusty. Ross walked more than five batters per nine innings and had a 7.71 ERA while rehabbing in the minors. Ross also is going to be on a pitch count, which puts the vulnerable Texas bullpen and suddenly shaky closer Matt Bush into play.
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| 06-20-17 | Tigers +137 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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The Mariners aren't going to keep winning relying on Mike Zunio to hit homers, Taylor Motter to perform like a starting shorstop and Ariel Miranda to keep pitching above his skill level especially with Nelson Cruz in a slump and Jean Segura still not back in action. I see value with the underdog Tigers here and a buy sign on Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has dropped far from his days as a very good pitcher for the Nationals. But he's below-the-radar right now having given up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Miranda, on the other hand, has pitched better than expected. The lefty's regression, though, is beginning to kick in. Miranda was hit hard by the Twins during his past start giving up six runs on 10 hits in four innings, including surrendering three homers. The Tigers are 10-7 against southpaw starters this season.
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| 06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
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I want Jon Lester at home against the Padres and this is the way to do that without laying a ton of juice. The Cubs' last five victories have been by an average of 6.2 runs. Chicago is averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. Lester has a 2.65 ERA at Wrigley Field this season and a 2.96 ERA against the Padres in four lifetime starts. The Cubs are not going to lack motivation, or focus, either against the bottom-feeding Padres since San Diego swept them at Petco Park at the end of last month. The Padres are one of the worst road clubs in the majors at 11-24. They have lost seven of their past nine away games. The Cubs are familiar with Padres starter, southpaw Clayton Richard. He pitched for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016. The Cubs are 9-6 versus lefty starters. Richard is bad on the road away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park with a 1-4 away mark and 4.39 ERA.
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| 06-19-17 | Nationals -108 v. Marlins | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
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The Nationals have won 12 of their last 15 road games, but are coming off a loss to Jacob deGrom yesterday. Look for the Nationals to bounce back against the Marlins today and a much weaker pitcher, southpaw Justin Nicolino. Washington ranks among the top four in many of the major offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers. Nicolino is more pitcher than thrower heavily relying on location to have any chance of success. He figures to be rusty having not pitched since May 30 because of a bruised index finger on his pitching hand. Even at his best, Nicolino is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. The Marlins are 1-11 the past 12 times Nicolino has gone against an opponent with a winning record. His career record at Marlins Park is 2-6 and he is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in four games, including three starts, versus the Nationals lifetime. Washington is 7-4 against lefty starters this season. I much prefer Washington starter Tanner Roark, who is a legitimate No. 3 type starter. Roark draws a Marlins lineup still missing the starting left side of their infield with Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria out. The Nationals' lone weakness is a vulnerable bullpen that has lacked a consistent closer. That may change with the emergence of Enny Romero, who hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 appearances spanning 12 innings. The Marlins are having problems with their bullpen, too. They blew leads of four runs and two runs during the weekend against the Braves. The Nationals are a much more dangerous hitting club than Atlanta. |
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| 06-18-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Orioles | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
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Baltimore has lost eight of its last nine, is down its two top relief pitchers, power-hitting first baseman Chris Davis and is pitching Ubaldo Jimenez. So, year, I like the Cardinals at this reasonable lay price. Jimenez should be left in long relief. He's not a legitimate starter anymore as proven with a 7.71 ERA in eight starts this year. He has been tagged for 11 homers in less than 40 innings, The Orioles are minus closer Zach Britton and set-up man Darren O'Day. Lance Lynn is a candidate for Comeback of the Year honors. He has a 2.69 ERA after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. He has been highly consistent, limiting foes to a .189 batting average.
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| 06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
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I don't believe Mike Clevinger should be laying this high of a road price. Teams are starting to hit Clevinger more as they learn about him. This will be Clevinger's seventh start of the season. He has allowed five homers in his last three games and his ERA is up to 4.09. Clevinger has a 4.26 ERA in three lifetime starts against Minnesota. Twins starter Aadlberto Mejia is making his eighth start. Mejia had a bad outing in his last start against the Mariners, which blew up his ERA. However, the southpaw had given up three or fewer runs in his first seven starts. The Indians have a losing record versus lefty starters.
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| 06-17-17 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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Chase Anderson could be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Only three pitchers have a lower NL ERA than Anderson's 2.83. Anderson is in great form, too, giving up just one run during his last four starts spanning 27 2/3 innings. He has 30 strikeouts during this time frame. Anderson faces a San Diego squad that ranks last in the majors in runs and batting average. The under is 9-3-1 in Anderson's last 13 home starts. The key to making this under work, though, is San Diego rookie starter Dinelson Lamet. The guy has great stuff with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings. Command is an issue, however, with him. He's had two good starts and two bad ones in a row. This is his fifth big league start and I see him bounching back here. Lamet is holding right-handed batters to a .138 average. Milwaukee's four best outfielders all bat right-handed. There is a real chance of thunderstorms for this game, which would mean the retractable roof at Miller Park being closed. That would be a major plus for the under.
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| 06-16-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
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Nothing against Steven Matz, a young pitcher I like. But the Mets are going to get smoked here. The Mets are down their starting middle infield - Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker - plus outfielder Juan Lagares. The Nationals rank in the top four in a number of mjaor offensive categories, including runs, batting average and homers, and they Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer may be the best right-hander in baseball. He's in great form, too, going 3-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last four starts with a 48-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Scherzer has a strong history versus the Mets, too, with a 2.39 ERA in 13 appearances. Matz is coming off an elbow injury. This is just his second start of the season. He's stepping way up in class having faced the Braves in his season debut this past Saturday. The Nationals have won nine of their last 11 road games. They are 22-7 in Scherzer's last 29 road starts. Washington has dominated the Mets at Citi Field also winning 43 of the past 57 times there.
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| 06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -128 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
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To make this play more palpable we have to knock down several perceptions. The first being the Angels can't win minus Mike Trout. Not true. They are 9-7 without him, including winning five of their last seven. The second is the Royals are hot. Yes, they've won four in a row. Those victories have come, however, against the Padres and Giants. Those two teams have the second and third-worst records in the majors. The third is laying a price with Ricky Nolasco starting. I get that. Nolasco is mediocre. He's lost his last five starts. But he hasn't pitched poorly during those outings giving up three runs or fewer in three of them. He held the Astros, a much stronger offensive team than the Royals, to two runs in seven innings during his last start. The Royals have scored the fewest runs in the American League so Nolasco isn't exactly going up against the '27 Yankees. Nolasco's mediocrity trumps Royals starter, Matt Strahm. The lefty will be making his first career major league start. He has been a reliever his entire big league career. Strahm is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 20 games this season. Strahm is getting the nod only because of an injury to Danny Duffy and the Royals losing faith in Eric Skogulund. In other words, he's a desperation ploy. The Angels are 11-6 versus southpaw starters this season. They've won five of the past six against them. Strahm has control issues walking 18 in 22 innings. He's going to be on a pitch count, too, so the Royals less than stellar middle relief figures to get plenty of work. I'd much prefer Nolasco against Strahm and a motley collection of Royals relief pitchers. The Royals are five games under .500 on the road. The Angels are at their best hosting opponents with a losing away mark winning 21 of the past 29 times against them.
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| 06-14-17 | Orioles -126 v. White Sox | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
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My reluctance on laying a road price with the Orioles is overcome by Chicago starting Miguel Gonzalez, who is 1-7 with a 6.56 ERA in his last eight starts. He's allowed 10 home runs in his last 46 2/3 innings. The Orioles are minus Chris Davis, but have Manny Machado back in the lineup. They are going with Dylan Bundy, who is their most consistent starter.
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| 06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
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The buy sign is on to back Corey Kluber. The former Cy Young Award winner looks to be in elite form again going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts since coming off the DL. He has an 18-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Indians have won 21 of Kluber's past 26 starts, including all four of his home starts this season. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for regression having given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 stars, including the last four. McCarthy is who he is - and that's an average pitcher at best. The Dodgers also have to deal with the distraction of Yasiel Puig, who drew national headlines for making an obscene gesture last night.
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| 06-13-17 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Tigers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
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Zach Greinke versus Buck Farmer is a massive starting pitching edge for Arizona. The Diamondbacks also have the superior offense. So, at this low lay price, Arizona is worthy of a solid investment. From 2014 through 2016, Farmer compiled an 0-6 record with 6.84 ERA being used more in relief than as a starter. Farmer has made two starts this season and not allowed a run in 13 innings. So, suddenly, we have a low price here. I'm not buying into Farmer. I'd rather go wtih Greinke, who isn't dominant like he once was but still remains well above average. He has a 3.20 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings with only 17 walks. Greinke has made 16 starts at Comerica Park. He's 13-7 lifetime versus Detroit with a 2.79 ERA. Greinke has been especially strong versus sub .500 teams. Arizona is 17-4 in Greinke's last 21 starts against teams with a losing mark. It's fair to point out that while the Diamondbacks lead the majors in batting at home with a .293 average, they have the worst road batting mark at .219. This is a misleading mark. Arizona has tremendous offensive players. Paul Goldschmidt is in the argument for best all-around player and Jake Lamb leads the majors in RBIs. Chris Owings is having a breakout season. This is the first time all season the Diamondbacks get to use a DH. The Diamondbacks have played 20 of their 30 road games at pitcher's parks, including six games at San Diego's Petco Park.
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| 06-12-17 | Rockies +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
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It's a nice story that Jameson Taillon is returning to the mound for Pittsburgh today five weeks after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Taillon is a promising young pitcher, but it remains to be seen how effective he'll be following a 3.21 ERA during three rebhad starts in Double A. The Rockies lead the NL West, are 7-1 in their last eight games and have won 24 of their 35 road games. Colorado is pitching underrated lefty Kyle Freeland, who has held six of his 12 opponents this season to one or fewer runs. Colorado is 6-0 in Freeland's past six road starts. The Pirates are 7-11 going against southpaw starters. The Pirates rank 25th in runs and 29th in homers. They may be without their new closer and best relief pitcher, Felipe Rivera. He's gone 1 1/3 innings during each of the last two days. Colorado has one of the best offenses in baseball ranking fourth in runs and batting average. This could be an emotional night for the Pirates because of Taillon. But the Rockies are the better team and are getting a price. So they're worth backing here.
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| 06-11-17 | Penguins v. Predators -137 | 2-0 | Loss | -137 | 36 h 58 m | Show | |
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The past eight times when the Penguins and Predators have met the home team won. That's held up in this Stanley Cup Final, too. Nashville is 2-0 versus Pittsburgh at home. The Predators didn't just nip the Penguins either at Bridgestone Arena. They outscored them in those two games, 9-2. Nashville has won 13 of its past 14 playoff games at Bridgestone Arena. I say the Predators have earned the right to be a mid-sized home favorite here even after getting destroyed, 6-0, on the road in Game 5. That was the only time in this series where the defending champion Penguins truly outclassed the Predators. It has been Nashville, not Pittsburgh, that has dominated for longer stretches until this past Thursday's game. I see the Predators coming back strong backed by a powerful home ice advantage. Nashville has the better defense. The Predators have the offensive depth and offensive-minded defensemen to exploit Pittsburgh's vulnerable defense especially when playing at home. The key for the Predators is goalie Pekka Rinne. He has been horrible in Pittsburgh giving up 11 goals on 45 shots during this series. However, Rinne has been brilliant at home yielding only two goals on 52 shots.
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| 06-11-17 | Mets v. Braves -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
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Unlike Saturday, when Sean Newcomb and Matt Wisler made their season debuts, the Braves are going with their best pitcher today: lefty Jaime Garcia. The former Cardinal usually is effective when he's been healthy. Rarely, though, was he healthy with St. Louis. Now he's 100 percent and in great form with a 1.23 ERA during his past four starts. The Mets have a losing record versus southpaws and also a losing road record. Getting the start for New York is Seth Lugo, who has been out all season recovering from an elbow injury. He makes his season debut after posting a 4.58 ERA in four rehab stats. He hasn't started in eight days. Lugo is rusty and likely to be on a pitch count. The Mets' bullpen is shaky.
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| 06-10-17 | Royals -112 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
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San Diego just may be the worst team in baseball, 14 games below .500 and in rebuilt mode. So the opportunity to lay a low price against them - especially when the Padres are going with a vulnerable starting pitcher - is a solid investment. The Padres have been outscored 48-17 in losing five of their last six games. They did win the opener of this series on Friday. But are 2-9 the past 11 times when playing Game 2 of a series. The Royals have won the last six times when playing in the second game of a series. I'm expecting a bounce back victory from the Royals again with a pitching matchup of Ian Kennedy versus Miguel Diaz. It's easy to get down on Kennedy because he hasn't been pitching well. However, everything sets up well for him here. He's finally healthy after being bothered by a leg injury. He has a good history when pitching at Petco Park - a place he knows well having pitched for the Padres from 2013-15 - and he's 7-2 lifetime against San Diego from his days with Arizona. The Padres also have the weakest offense in the majors ranking last in runs and batting average. Diaz is a reliever with a 7.50 ERA who is pressed into starting duty because of an injury to Jared Cosart. Diaz isn't ready. Padres manager Andy Green isn't optimistic either. This is what Green was quoted as saying about Diaz being a starter: "He doesn't have quite the deception necessary to turn lineups over two and three and four times right now. That's a challenge for him."
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| 06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
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There is just one day of rest between Game 3, which was Wednesday night, and tonight's Game 4 in this NBA Championship Series. It makes a difference. Yet the total is the highest it has been all series. It makes sense on the surface to post the highest over/under since the last two game have gone above the total. But let's look closer at the numbers and human factor involved in this Game 4. First, the numbers: Golden State won, 118-113, in Game 3 to go up 3-0 in the series. That was a combined 231 points. The Warriors and Cavaliers together made 43 of 49 free throws for 88 percent. Golden State shot 78.8 percent from the foul line during the regular season. Cleveland made only 74.8 percent of its free throws in the regular season. So expect the free throw shooting accuracy to drop. There were 103 points scored in the second half during Game 3. That averages out to 206 for the entire game. The Cavaliers do like to run. However, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving were seriously gassed at the end of Wednesday night's game as well as they should have been each having logged more than 44 minutes. James and Irving are the only Cavaliers playing well. So I envision a slower tempo from the Cavaliers in this do-or-die spot. The Cavaliers can't run with the Warriors, who have more depth and better offensive talent, and they know this.
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| 06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -117 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
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I'll take any excuse to fade the A's on the road and this low lay price and pitching matchup gives it to me. Oakland is 8-20 on the road. Andrew Triggs is slated to go for the A's. He's in bad form with a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts. Triggs has surrendered five homers in his last four starts. Tampa Bay ranks No. 2 in the majors in homers. Rays starter Alex Cobb has pitched better at home and is on extra rest. He is 3-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 2.44 ERA in seven career starts.
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| 06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -113 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
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The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 and five in a row. I don't see Kyle Gibson ending that streak. The Twins have overachieved, but now their bullpen is melting down and Gibson is on the mound. He's one of the worst starting ptichers in the majors. Gibson had 25 starts last season and went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. He's been even worse this season with a 7.23 ERA. In 42 1/3 innings, Gibson has allowed 57 hits and 23 walks. The lay price is low, though, because the Mariners are starting Christian Bergman and are minus Jean Segura and likely to be without Nelson Cruz, too. Segura is on the DL and Cruz is dealing with a sore calf. Bergman got shelled three starts ago. That was on the road against the Nationals, who have the best offense in the majors. In his last two starts, Bergman has pitched well giving up two runs in 13 innings facing the Red Sox at Fenway and Rays at home. Bergman is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. I find the Mariners to be an excellent bargain being home against Gibson.
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| 06-08-17 | Predators v. Penguins -150 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
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The home team has won every game in this Stanley Cup Final between the Predators and Penguins. Look for that pattern to continue here in Game 5. Pittsburgh has won 76 percent of its last 86 home games. The Penguins are 4-0 the past four times hosting Nashville. The Predators are 2-5 in their last seven road games. The Predators evened the series at 2-2 with a pair of home victories the last coming this past Monday, 4-1. That score was misleading, though. The Penguins had some high quality chances. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne came up big, however. Rinne won't be so good on the road. He has a bad history when playing in Pittsburgh, too. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray is just as good and he'll be the superior goalie at home. Nashville is the stronger defensive club. But the Predators' forwards have played better than expected. I see the Penguins' defense stepping up here while Nashville's forwards show some regression. The Penguins have the superstar scorers with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. I want these guys going for me here. I also like Mike Sullivan being able to make the last line change now with the series returning to Pittsburgh.
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| 06-07-17 | Warriors -3 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
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This is supposed to be the Cavaliers' game to win, right? The Zig/Zag theory points that way and so does the normal situational thinking of Cleveland down 2-0 in the series now returning home in a must-win spot. The oddsmakers think that way, too, having made a six-point adjustment in the line. There's just one problem with all this pro-Cavaliers thinking. It's entirely faulty because Cleveland simply isn't in Golden State's class. The Warriors have won by 22 and 19 points, respectively. Oh, I fully expect the Cavaliers to play as hard as ever at Quicken Loans Arena. They probably will produce their best game of the series - but it won't even be enough to even cover the spread. The Cavaliers couldn't come within 19 points of the Warriors in Game 2 and that was playing with exceptional intensity and coming up with 15 steals when Golden State had only five. The Warriors also will be highly motivated remembering the Cavaliers rallying from a 3-1 deficit last year to caputre the championship in seven games. They aren't going to give the Cavaliers any hope of that occurring again by letting up. The addition of Kevin Durant - who has more than lived up to his superstar status - has made the Warriors a team for the ages. They are in the discussion as greatest team ever with tremendous firepower and excellent defense. Cleveland can't defend the Warriors. It's that simple. The Cavaliers can't match Golden State's scorers and they lack elite defenders. LeBron James doesn't have nearly enough help to deal with Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Co. Tristan Thompson is boxed out. J.R. Smith is a bust. Kyle Korver and Deron Williams have been exposed. Tyronn Lue is a weak coach. So just forget this must-win talk surrounding the Cavaliers. The bottom line here is this is a cheap lay price. |
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| 06-07-17 | Giants +122 v. Brewers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
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I see a regression coming from the Brewers, who are a surprising three games above .500. So this is a good time to step in against the favored Brewers with a hot pitcher. Giants starter, lefty Ty Blach, hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts. He's 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA during this stretch. Milwaukee has the disadvantage of never having faced him before. Ryan Braun is out for the Brewers and Eric Thames has cooled off. The Brewers also have a losing mark versus southpaws. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson is in good form, too, but has yet to become a consistent pitcher. He has a 5.50 career ERA versus the Giants in three starts. The Giants are healthy now in the outfield with Denard Span and Hunter Pence both back in the lineup.
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| 06-07-17 | Indians v. Rockies +115 | 1-8 | Win | 115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying the Indians as a road favorite at Coors Field especially with Trevor Bauer on the mound. The Rockies are proving for real this season being 14 games above .500. Bauer has never pitched at Coors Field so he's going to be in for a rude awakening. He is 2-3 with a 6.14 ERA in six road starts this season and has never been consistent throughout his career. Cleveland has dropped nine of its last 10 interleague games. Freeland leads the Rockies in quality starts with eight. He has a 3.94 home ERA, which is respectable for Coors Field.The Rockies are 7-2 in Freeland's last nine starts.
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| 06-06-17 | Nationals -116 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
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Washington has the better record. Washington has the better offense. Washington has the better starting pitcher by far. So the Nationals are an easy choice here at this low lay price. The Nationals lead the majors in many of the key offensive categories. They are playing well going 6-1 on their current road trip. Nationals starter Max Scherzer is the best right-hander in the National League and is in dominant form with a 2-0 mark and 1.02 ERA with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last two starts spanning 17 2/3 innings. Washington is 21-7 in Scherzer's past 28 road starts. LA is 2-4 in its last six games. The Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games. They are minus injured Justin Turner. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy has pitched better than expected this season. But he's been nicked up with his latest injury being a finger blister that caused him to be lifted from his last start this past Thursday. McCarthy is two tiers below Scherzer. |
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| 06-05-17 | Nationals +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
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The Nationals have the best record in the National League. They have the top offense in baseball and already are in California having just concluded a series with Oakland. The Dodgers are traveling back home after finishing up a seven-game road trip this past Saturday with a 3-0 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Nationals are in the better spot and hold a starting pitching matchup edge with Gio Gonzalez taking on Hyun-Jin Ryu. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 2-9 in Ryu's past 11 starts. Ryu remains on the comeback trail and has a tenuous hold on LA's No. 5 pitching slot.
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| 06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
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The Cavaliers and Warriors didn't come close to going Over the total in Game 1 of their NBA Finals this past Thursday won by Golden State, 113-91. There were reasons for this namely that the Cavaliers shot less than 35 percent from the floor and Golden State made only 42.5 percent from the field and shot only 16 free throws. Now we have a Game 2 total that is nearly five points lower than Game 1. I don't believe this big of an over/under adjustment is justified. The pace for Game 1 was up-tempo. The superstarts - LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant - all had big games. The shooting just was off. That's understandable since the Cavaliers hadn't played in a week while the Warriors had been idle for nine days. That's a lot of rust. Now the teams have been idle for just two days. Until Game 1, the Cavaliers had scored 106 or more points during their previous 13 playoff games. Cleveland went into Game 1 averaging a playoff-high 118.3 points per 100 possessions. Golden State ranked No. 2 in the playoffs at 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Each team rated among the top three in offensive efficiency during the regular season, too. Key Cleveland reserves Deron Williams and Kyle Korver failed to score in Game 1 going a combined 0-for-7 from the field. Golden State committed only four turnovers. The Warriors led by 21 entering the final period and took their foot off the gas scoring only 20 points after putting up 93 points through the first three quarters. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson combined to miss 22 of 28 shots from the floor, making only one-of-10 from beyond the arc. Thompson has been in a shooting slump, but it's hard to believe that either of these star players can shoot that bad again especially if the Cavaliers try to pay extra attention to Durant. |
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| 06-04-17 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 10 | 13-8 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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I like Julio Teheran especially with the Reds likely to be missing two of their key offensive players and I'm willing to take a leap of faith with Amir Garrett on this high of a total. Teheran hasn't solved his new home park in Atlanta, but he's been tremendous on the road going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He has a 2.25 ERA going back to his last 22 away starts and has a career 2.23 ERA in five starts versus the Reds. Cincinnati probably is going to be missing outfielders Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler. Both suffered shoulder injuries on Saturday. Hamilton leads the majors in steals by a wide margin, while Schebler is tied for the National League lead in homers. Garrett pitched well early this season, but then hit a rough patch. This will be the lefty's first start since May 25 when he went on the DL with a sore hip. Atlanta has faced only four southpaw starters this season, fewest in the majors.
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| 06-03-17 | Twins +100 v. Angels | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
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The Twins have won 19 of their last 26 road games. They've defeated the Angels seven of the past nine times and have a huge pitching edge here with Erwin Santana versus Matt Shoemaker. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season going 7-2 with a 1.75 ERA, best in the AL. Only twice in 11 starts this year has Santana surrendered more than one earned run. Opponents are batting a meager .140 against him. The right-handed Shoemaker is off a terrible start giving up four runs and seven hits in less than five innings against the Marlins. Minnesota is 13-3 during its last 16 road games versus a righty starter. Don't forget, too, the Angels are minus injured Mike Trout, one of the few everyday players worth something on the line.
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| 06-03-17 | Penguins v. Predators -131 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
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Based on statistics and overall play, you could make an argument that the Predators are better than the Penguins during these Stanley Cup Finals. It's Pittsburgh, however, that leads the series, 2-0. Better goaltending has been instrumental in the Penguins negating the Predators' longer stretches of excellence. Matt Murray has easily outshined Pekka Rinne in goal. But I believe Nashville is the right side here coming home in a must-win spot. The Penguins have to be a little fat, forunate and happy being up 2-0. The Predators have fired 25 more shots on goal during the series. Nashville has a very strong home ice advantage. They are 19-7 in its last 26 home games, including 7-1 during the Stanley Cup. Rinne has the superior defense behind him especially with the Penguins minus Kris Letang. Rinne has impressive credentials. He was brilliant up until this series. I certainly can't see the Penguins sweeping the Predators. This is the game Nashville must have - and they are due for some breaks and better goaltending. That should come here at home.
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| 06-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
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I find this total too short in a pitching matchup of German Marquez versus Clayton Richard. The Rockies have scored 23 runs in their last four games if you discount a 5-0 loss to James Paxton. The Padres have scored 18 runs during their past four games. Colorado ranks fifth in the league in runs and batting average, while the Padres have some underrated hitters. I grasp that Petco Park is the opposite of Coors Field as far as favoring pitching, but I don't see these starters shutting down the opposing offenses and I'm very leery of San Diego's bullpen. Richard has a 4.79 ERA in 15 career appearances versus the Rockies. The Padres saw Marquez last September when he gave up three runs in 2 1/3 innings of relief.
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| 06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 107 h 27 m | Show |
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By the time this game tips off on Thursday night, Cleveland will have gone a week without playing. The wait was even longer for Golden State, which last played on Monday, May 22. But because the Cavaliers averaged 116.8 points during the playoffs and Warriors put up 118.3 points per game in the postseason we have a very high total in this Game 1. Yes, I'm well aware of all the superstars participating here - LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, Kevin Love and Klay Thompson. But there's going to be a huge rust factor. This opening game is a matchup of wills and strategy. Both sides have had ample time to game plan. This isn't an All-Star game. There will be defensive intensity. Offense immediately comes to mind when thinking about these two teams. Each is underrated defensively, though. If you discount the 111 points they gave up to the Celtics when they lost their intensity in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers have surrendered an average of 97.8 points in their last six games. The Warriors finished No. 1 during the regular season in defensive field goal percentage and in defending against 3-pointers. If you don't include the 115 points they allowed to the Spurs in their Game 4 sweep of the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors are yielding 99.5 points in their last eight games. The Warriors also get back ace defender Andre Iguodala. He's a key defensive chess piece for acting Warriors coach MIke Brown. If anybody can game plan to defend against James it's Brown, an astute defensive-minded assistant who knows James well from his head coaching days in Cleveland.
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| 06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
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I respect that Miami is playing its best ball winning four in a row. I'm also aware this is a tough traveling spot for the Diamondbacks going to South Florida after playing 14 innings on Wednesday in Pittsburgh with heavy bullpen usage. But all of this is trumped by a pitching matchup of Zach Greinke versus Jeff Locke and that the Marlins may be without Dee Gordon, who could be rested due to a right leg injury. Greinke has regained his dominance after an off-season last year. He has dominated the Marlins in eight career starts going 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA against them. Locke will be making his season debut. He hasn't been good since the first half of the 2013 season. He has a career 6.57 ERA in five appearances, including four starts, versus the Diamondbacks.
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| 05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
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I find excellent value here with the underdog Rockies. Colorado is 8-2 when Antonio Senzatela has started. His 3.19 ERA is the lowest in Colorado history through 10 starts. Lefty James Paxton is makign his first start since going on the DL May 3 with a left forearm strain. Paxton is going to be on a pitch count. Seattle is 4-10 in Paxton's last 14 home starts. The Rockies have been dynamic on the road going 18-8. They also are 10-6 versus southpaws.
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| 05-31-17 | Predators +133 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
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The Predators outplayed the Penguins in Game 1 of these Stanley Cup Finals this past Monday, but lost, 5-3, despite holding Pittsburgh without a shot on goal for 37 minutes. Nashville has a winning road record during the Stanley Cup playoffs going 5-4. All of their away playoff defeats were by one goal, or two goals when they gave up an empty-netter. The Predators have the better defense and I would take Pekka Rinne over Matt Murray in goal. Rinne had an off-game in Game 1, but entered these finals red-hot carrying a postseason-best 1.70 goals against average. I like Murray, but he lacks Rinne's experience and pedigree. Rinne is a proven elite goalie, a three-time Vezina Trophy finalist. I can see the Predators holding the Penguins in check during this Game 2, while producing enough offense to win. Colton Sissons has proven he can be counted on in replacing injured Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher is back from injury. So I'm not worried about the Predators' center play. Note, too, that the Penguins are 2-5 the past seven times following a victory.
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| 05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers +105 | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
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Despite Martin Perez not being his usual reliable self when pitching at home, the Rangers led the Rays, 7-5, going into the seventh inning in yesterday's Memorial Day game. This was fine by me since I had Texas and it was one of my biggest plays of the month. Then the Rangers called on a clown named Tony Barnette to help get them out of a jam in the seventh inning. Barnette gave up a two-run double and three-run homer. The Rangers couldn't recover and lost, 10-8. I want to back the Rangers in the worst way today especially considering Tampa Bay's bullpen - not good to start with - is shot having pitched 16 innings during the last two days. Closer Alex Colome isn't going to be available either having thrown three innings and 46 pitches during the past two days. Texas is 8-1 in its last nine home games. Adrian Beltre finally is back in the lineup giving the Rangers tremendous power at the corners with Joey Gallo and his 16 homers moving to first base. Gallo showed he could field his new position well, too, Monday. The Rays have played 10 hours and 14 minutes of baseball during the last two days after playing for close to 6 1/2 hours on Sunday going 15 innings. I'm going to get involved with the Rangers here, especially as home 'dogs. But I can't give them a a major recommendation because they are starting Nick Martinez. Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Rangers, but Martinez takes a backseat to most starters, including Andriese. The play is Texas. But the recommendation is small.
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| 05-30-17 | A's +152 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
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Trevor Bauer is hit and miss. Sonny Gray is healthy and coming on. A healthy Gray, without rust, is much superior to Bauer. So I'll take this high price with Gray and the A's. Gray has recovered from a strained right shoulder. He looked strong in his last start giving up one run on three hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts against the Marlins this past Wednesday. Gray has a 2.59 career ERA against the Indians. Bauer is capable of pitching a gem. But he's far more likley to throw a clunker. He has a 6.30 ERA on the season. Oakland is a respectable 5-5 in its last 10 games. Only three teams have hit more homers than the A's. Bauer has surrendered 11 homers in 50 innings.
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| 05-29-17 | Rays v. Rangers -115 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
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The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the Rangers, who play much better at home. Texas has won its last eight home games and 16 of its last 21 in Arlington. The Rangers draw the Rays after Tampa Bay just concluded a 6-hour, 26-minute, 15-inning Sunday game at Minnesota. The Rays went through seven pitchers in that game. Closer Alex Colome logged two innings throwing 36 pitches. He's probably not going to be able to pitch today if needed. Colome got the win on Sunday with the save going to Erasmo Ramirez, who threw 12 pitches. I point this out because Ramirez is slated to start this game. This is what Rays manager Kevin Cash was quoted as saying after first confirming Ramirez would start today: "He should be fine." Cash said. Note that Cash said "should" be fine rather than will be fine. Ramirez is 0-1 with a 5.72 ERA lifetime versus the Rangers in 11 career appearances. Regardless who starts for the Rays, I like the Rangers as an action play. I trust Martin Perez at home. The Rays obviously have a fatigue issue and there's the possibility of Adrian Beltre making his season debut for Texas afer being out all season with a calf injury. Beltre's presence would stablize the Rangers' batting order.
Perez is coming around after a disappointing April. He has a 3.16 ERA in four May starts. The southpaw has a history of pitching well at home. The Rangers are 14-6 in Perez's last 20 home starts. The Rays are just 6-11 against lefty starters this season. |
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| 05-29-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 9.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
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The marketplace has pushed this total past 9 in some places and that gets me involved on the under. |
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| 05-28-17 | Rays -101 v. Twins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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There are certain pitchers who just shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Kyle Gibson is one such hurler. Gibson was a huge disappointment last season with a 5.07 ERA and he's been just as horrible - if not worse - this season with an 8.62 ERA. Until the Twins cut ties with this guy, Minnesota is worth fading when Gibson pitches especially when it opens as a home favorite. The Twins have been overachieving winning 15 more games than at this point last year. However, those victories haven't come at home where they are 12-15. Gibson had been sent down to the minors. He emerged this past Monday and was lucky the Twins put up 14 runs against the Orioles in that game because he allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings to pick up a lucky victory. Gibson has been consistent. He's given up three or more earned runs in each of his seven starts. Teams often rest some everyday players on Sunday. That shouldn't be the case, though, with hot-hitting Corey Dickerson. He was rested yesterday. Dickerson is having a breakout season batting .330 with 12 homers, 14 doubles and 23 RBIs. Rays pitcher Alex Cobb is far from an ace. But he's been steady this month - 3.12 ERA in five May starts - and is a clear upgrade on Gibson. The Rays have won seven of their last 10 road games and have beaten the Twins 19 of the last 26 times at Target Field.
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| 05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -113 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Pirates could hardly touch Jacob deGrom Friday. Now they face Zach Wheeler with their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, going. Wheeler is coming around from a long bout with arm trouble, but he's not deGrom. I see the Pirates bouncing back here and the price is right to get involved. Until beating Pittsburgh yesterday, the Mets had dropped six straight road games. The Mets have a shaky bullpen and their best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, isn't back yet from a hamstring injury. Wheeler has pitched well in his last four starts, but is giving up too many walks and can't be counted on to go deep into games. Wheeler walked five Angels in five innings during his last start. The right-handed Cole looks to rebound after his worst outing of the season when he gave up five runs on a season-high 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings to the Braves this past Monday. That game was in Atlanta. Now Cole is home where his ERA is 1.67 in four starts at PNC Park. Opponents are batting .161 against him there. The Mets have lost nine of their last 13 when going against a right-handed starter. They also have dropped six of their past eight at PNC Park. Gregory Polanco played for the first time since May 14 because of a left hamstring strain. The Pirates' offense is better with him back in the lineup.
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| 05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
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The Braves are playing better than expected. The Giants are playing worse than expected. Yet the Giants still have as many victories as the Braves. I'm looking for the Braves to regress to the norm especially without injured Freddie Freeman, their most productive player, and for the Giants to make a move now that they have returned home. As bad as they've been, the Giants still have a winning mark at AT&T Park. Outfielder Denard Span is back for San Francisco. That's huge and somewhat below-the-radar. The Giants are 17-8 the past 25 times at home when going against a lefty starter. They face southpaw Jaime Garcia today. Garcia hasn't pitched well on the road allowing 19 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings for an away ERA of nearly 5.00. Atlanta has dropped nine of its last 13 games at AT&T. The Braves take on Matt Cain here. I wouldn't touch Cain away from spacious AT&T, but he's been dynamic at home going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in four starts. Cain is past his prime, but he's a savvy veteran who knows how to pitch well in this park. Stephen Nover's Friday Free Play Orioles plus $.144 at Astros The ERA shows 6.65. But the buy sign is on for me here with Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman. I'm willing to take a calculated leap of faith with Glausman and the Orioles at this tidy road underdog price against Houston. Gausman is showing definite signs of turning around his year after a disastrous start. He's had two quality starts in his last three outings giving up two earned runs during those two good games. He pitched his best game of the season three starts ago holding Washington to two runs on five hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts. The Nationals lead the majors in runs, batting average and homers. The Orioles are four-for-20 with runners in scoring position during their last four games. Baltimore, though, ranks third in the league in batting with runners in scoring position. I see them getting back on track against Houston starter Joe Musgrove. Musgrove is the weakest of Houston's starters. He has a 5.63 ERA. Foes are batting .306 against him and have smacked nine homers off him, including six by right-handers. The Orioles have plenty of right-handed power. Musgrove lasted just three innings in his last start, which came at home against the Indians this past Sunday. He was blasted for seven runs allowing eight hits and walking three. Baltimore faced Musgrove once last season at home. The Orioles buried the Astros, 13-5, in that contest putting up eight runs on 11 hits and one walk against Musgrove in 5 1/3 innings. Houston is 1-5 in Musgrove's last six home starts. The Orioles were idle on Thursday, while the Astros had to use their best relievers to nip the Tigers, 7-6, Thursday. The spot is ripe for the Orioles. They are going against a very vulnerable starter with their own starter displaying positive signs of coming around. Baltimore has been good in these type of situations, too, winning nine of the last 13 times when going against a home team with a winning percentage of better than .600. |
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| 05-26-17 | Cubs +122 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
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I realize Jake Arrieta hasn't been as dominant as he's been the past couple of seasons and that Alex Wood is pitching extremely well. But the Cubs are the more powerful team - especially with the Dodgers minus injured Justin Turner and Joc Pederson - and Arrieta still rates an edge on Wood, who has yet to achieve consistency during his career. The Cubs have won 69 percent of Arrieta's last 54 road starts. Arrieta held the Brewers to one run, which was unearned, on five hits and six strikeouts with a walk in six innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Dodgers haven't scored in 16 consecutive innings when facing Arrieta. The southpaw Wood is coming off a 7-2 win against the offensively-challenged Marlins last Friday. Wood threw a season-high 96 pitches in that game. Following a quality Wood start, the Dodgers are 2-9 the past 11 times the next time he pitches. Chicago also is 10-4 the last 14 times facing a lefty starter, including 8-4 this season. The Cubs have smacked 26 homers in their last 14 games, second-most in the majors during this span.
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| 05-25-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
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I went Under 5 at a plus price in Game 6 between these two teams and was financially rewarded when the Senators won, 2-1, at home. Now the scene shifts to Pittsburgh for Game 7 of these Eastern Conference Finals. There's only one way to play this total - and this time it is Over. I see the Penguins opening this game up at home. They easily could have scored more than one goal on the road in Game 6 firing 46 shots on goal and generally controlling the action.. Trevor Daley had a goal called back after a lengthy review in which it was ruled Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson had been pushed into the net. Anderson was great in the Senators' victory. He was terrible in Pittsburgh's 7-0 Game 5 victory. Sidney Crosby had scored a goal in three straight games until Game 6. Still, Crosby fired six shots on goal in Game 6 and Pittsburgh outshot Ottawa, 23-11, when he was on the ice and the teams were at even strength. You have to think Crosby and fellow superstar, Evgeni Malkin, will come up with big games. Ottawa could contribute to the scoring, too, after ending an 0-for-29 power-play slump with a power play goal in Game 6. The Senators will be forced to get out of their defensive shell if they fall behind, a likely occurrence with Pittsburgh a 2-to-1 favorite. The chance for two empy net goals for the winning team is in play, too, with this being Game 7.
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| 05-25-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay is an underrated offensive team and gets a shot today at fill-in starter Daniel Wright. Wright hasn't proven up to the task in the majors so far. He had a 5.54 ERA in limited innings with the Reds and Angels last season and he has a 5.68 ERA in 12 2/3 innings this season. The Angels sent Wright to Triple-A Salt Lake City where he's continued to struggle posting a 9.35 ERA in four starts allowing opposing hitters to bat .316 against him. I see this as an opportunity to go against a pitcher who hasn't proven major league worthy, or ready. But I also don't trust Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese and a bad Rays bullpen. I believe the Angels can put up their share of runs, too.
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| 05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
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Tampa Bay was shut out by the Angels on Tuesday. I see the Rays bouncing back here against journeyman Ricky Nolasco, who is way overdue to get shelled. Going into Tuesday's game, the Rays ranked first in the league in extra-base hits, were No. 2 in hits and homers and third in runs and on-base plus slugging percentage. The Angels are a poor road club losing 15 of 25. Tampa Bay has a plus 16 run differiental and has led in 33 of its last 36 games. Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez has been dependable this season and has a career 2.41 ERA in nine appearances versus the Angels, including five starts.
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| 05-24-17 | White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
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We know what we're likely to get with White Sox starter lefty Jose Quintana and that's a quality start. Quintana is one of the more respected pitchers in baseball. The White Sox have won four of Quintana's past five starts. But what are the Diamondbacks going to get from their starter today, Randall Delgado? They're hoping for maybe five solid innings. Delgado hasn't started in two years. He has a 4.05 ERA and is part of a bad and untrustworthy Diamondbacks bullpen that figures to see a lot of innings as this shapes up as a bullpen-by-committee game. Delgado is filling-in for Taijuan Walker, who is on the DL due to blister issues. I'd much rather have Quintana going for me then some Arizona combination of Delgado, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jorge De La Rosa and T.J. McFarland. Yet, Arizona opened the favorite. The Diamondbacks have a losing record versus lefties. They are 2-5 the last seven times facing a southpaw starter. Another key here is motivation. It's only fair to point out Arizona has the best home record in the majors at 20-8. The White Sox, though, will be looking to avoid a sweep. Quintana certainly should be motivated as he's prime trade bait and a heavy dose of scouts throughout both leagues will be watching him.
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| 05-23-17 | Penguins v. Senators UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 124 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
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The Senators made a huge strategic mistake two days ago when they lost, 7-0, to the Penguins in Pittsburgh. They tried to play run-and-gun with the offensively-superior Penguins. That's not going to happen today with the Senators at home and their season on the line trailing 3-2 in the best-of-seven Stanley Cup Eastern Conference Finals. Ottawa is going to revert back to its normal play, which is a conservative, defensive style meant to pick spots and frustrate Pittsburgh. It worked for the Senators during the first three games of the series when they allowed just three goals. The Penguins have made adjustments and played much better during the last two games. One adjustment was going with Matt Murray in goal instead of Marc-Andre Fleury. I've always considered Murray to be Pittsburgh's top goalie. He was outstanding in helping lead the Penguins to the Stanley Cup last season and he's been great since replacing Fleury giving up just two goals during nearly nine quarters posting a 1.08 goals against average and .958 save percentage. There was one plus for the Senators in getting blown out by the Penguins this past Sunday. They were able to greatly reduce the ice time of star defenseman Erik Karlsson and Cody Ceci. This could prove especially beneficial to Karlsson, who is playing with two hairline fractures in his left heel. There's a chance, too, that the Senators could get back defenseman Mark Borowiecki, who has been out since early in the Round 1 series against Boston.
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| 05-23-17 | Rangers +184 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
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What would you say if you could take a hugh price on an underdog that is 11-1 in its last 12 games and whose starting pitcher has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts? You would take it, right? So would I. That's the case with the underdog Rangers here against Rick Porcello at Fenway Park. Boston is an underachieving one game above .500. Texas is three games above .500. Porcello isn't coming close to reproducing his Cy Young Award-winning season of a year ago. He's 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Porcello has surrendered 10 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Texas has hit the eighth-most homers in the majors. Porcello also has a 5.69 career ERA versus the Rangers in nine starts. So why, pray tell, are the Red Sox such a heavy favorite? One huge reason is Texas starter Andrew Cashner has failed to win 21 of his past 22 road starts. His lifetime road ERA is 4.85 compared to 2.82 at home. Cashner pitched for 4 1/2 seasons for the Padres at Petco Park. That explains some of the home/road difference. The key here is Cashner is healthy, which he hasn't been the last several years, and pitching well. He has a 1.89 ERA during his last three starts and a respectable 3.12 ERA in three road starts. The Red Sox have never faced him.
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| 05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
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Just five days ago these two starting pitchers, Danny Duffy and Jordan Montgomery, squared off in Kansas City. The Royals won, 5-1. The Yankees couldn't solve Duffy, who pitched seven scoreless innings allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out 10. Montgomery yielded a career-high five earned runs in five innings. That was the rookie's second straight shaky start. So you have to wonder if the league has begun to adjust to him. Now the Royals get a second quick look at Montgomery, who has a 4.81 ERA. New York is 1-4 in Montgomery's last five starts. Keep in mind, the Yankees don't have injured closer Aroldis Chapman and their fill-in closer, Dellin Betances, carries a high fatigue rating having worked 2 1/3 innings the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches. So why should things be much different in this rematch? I'll take this nice price to say they won't.
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| 05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | 129-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
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It sure looks like the Warriors are going to sweep the Spurs in these Western Conference Finals. But let's concentrate on the total instead. The total has gone over each of the first three games. The result is we now have the highest over/under of the series for this Game 4. Zigging and zagging in the NBA playoffs doesn't just pertain to the side. It also applies to the total. This is the time now to go under. The Warriors are shooting 49 percent from the floor during the series. They made 49 percent of their field goals during the regular season, too. But the Warriors also have made 42.5 percent of their 3-point shots against the Spurs. That is high for them as they averaged 38.3 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season. The Spurs are a premier defensive team. During the regular season, they gave up the second-fewest points per game at 98.1, ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage at 44.3 and were fifth in 3-point defense at 34.4 percent. So the Warriors' shooting percentage is due to come down. Yes, Kawhi Leonard was important to the Spurs' defense. But his lost contributions are felt far more on the offensive end. The Spurs are minus Leonard, Tony Parker and probably David Lee, who suffered a knee injury in Game 3 and is doubtful. That's a lot of lost offense. Really the only way for the Spurs to hang with the high-flying, loaded Warriors is to slow the pace down. There's no way their bigs, role players and youngsters - which now comprise the makeup of the team - can keep up with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. The Warriors are an underrated defensive team, too. They ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense during the regular season. Golden State isn't going to lose its intensity especially after what happened to the Cavaliers on Sunday against the Celtics. This is a close-out game for the Warriors. But acting coach Mike Brown is a former assistant to Gregg Popovich. He's not going to do anything to embarrass his former mentor like run up a score. Popovich, for his part, isn't going to have his team act like jerks by committing a lot of needless fouls at the end.
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| 05-22-17 | Pirates -119 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
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I expect the rebuilding Braves to start to tumble after losing Freddie Freeman, their best player. The Pirates are trending upward winning six of their last eight. This combination along with the pitching matchup puts me squarely on Pittsburgh today. Cole was outstanding two seasons ago. He's reverted back to that form this season. Cole has given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts posting a 1.98 ERA during this span. Pittsburgh is 5-0 lifetime against the Braves when Cole pitches. I am a fan of Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz. I do believe in his potential. But he has a bad history versus the Pirates and hasn't solved Atlanta's new SunTrust Park with a 6.35 ERA in three home starts. Foltynewicz is 0-3 career-wise versus the Pirates with a 9.00 ERA. Pittsburgh only scored one run on Sunday, but its offense has picked up. Prior to yesterday, the Pirates were averaging 5.6 runs in their last six games.
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| 05-21-17 | Celtics +17.5 v. Cavs | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
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OK, at this price I'll bite. This is the Eastern Conference Finals after all and we are talking the Boston Celtics not the Washington Generals. This line is super inflated because Isaiah Thomas is done for the playoffs with a hip injury and Cleveland has destroyed the Celtics by 13 and 44 points, respectively, during the first two games of the series. No, the Celtics aren't pulling off an upset for all-time here. But they will play hard after suffering the worst home playoff loss in franchise history. And this is the proudest of franchises, too. Brad Stevens is an excellent coach. I'd take hime over Tyronn Lue in a heartbeat. The Celtics do have depth. They are capable of playing much better. The Cavaliers can't help but put things on auto drive especially now returning home. I can't see Cleveland playing with a great deal of intensity after such a pair of easy victories.
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| 05-21-17 | Rangers -119 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
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This is a low price to back Rangers ace Yu Darvish against Matt Boyd, the Tigers' No. 5 starter. Darvish is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA during his last five starts. He's dominated the Tigers going 6-0 against them. He's been particularly strong at Comerica Park with a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers won't have Victor Martinez in their lineup and also could be minus Ian Kinsler, who left yesterday's game following tightness in his left hamstring. Boyd has a 5.18 ERA and is off his worst start of the season getting lit up by the Orioles to the tune of seven runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings this past Tuesday. Lifetime against the Rangers, Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four appearances. Detroit beat Texas on Saturday. The Rangers had won 10 in a row before that loss averaging 6.4 runs per game during their win streak.
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| 05-21-17 | Angels -104 v. Mets | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
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First, a reminder: The Mets aren't a very good team. They are 18-23 and had lost seven in a row until winning the first two games of this series. Injuries have reaked havoc on the Mets' highly promising pitching staff. The damage is so bad that veteran castoff southpaw Tommy Milone is getting the start here. The Brewers cut Milone after he posted a 5.14 ERA in three starts. Milone's ERA with the Mets is even worse at 5.90. He's not a big innings guy either and the Mets' vulnerable and disappointing bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. The Angels have a winning record versus lefty starters. Addison Reed took over for injured Jeurys Familia as New York's closer. He's not likely to be available after a 29-pitch, shaky outing Saturday. Angels starter Jesse Chavez has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this year. He's held batters to a .176 average in three starts this month. Chavez is serviceable. That's more than I can say for Milone. Remember, too, that the Mets best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, is on the DL along with underrated middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera. |
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| 05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Sure it's a monster plus if Kawhi Leonard plays today. Not only is he the best two-way player in basketball, but the mental lift he would provide would be enormous. I think Leonard will test his injured ankle and give it a try. The teams last played on Tuesday. So he's had three full days of recovery. Doctors found no structural damage to his ankle. If he plays, this spread is well worth getting involved. However, I'm not counting on Leonard playing. Yet I still believe the Spurs are worth backing in a home underdog role down 0-2 in this Western Conference Finals and in must-win mode. The Spurs can't help but be super fired up especially after taking a verbal beating from their Hall of Fame coach, Gregg Popovich, after being embarrassed 136-100 in Game 2. The Spurs are a prideful, veteran crew that showed it could win without Leonard when they buried the Rockets by 30 points on the road to close out their semifinal series. Golden State has lost a staggering 25 of 27 times at AT&T Center. This includes a 2-3 mark under Steve Kerr. So the Spurs' home-court advantage can not be underestimated. The Warriors also could be minus Andre Iguodala and starting center Zaza Pachulia. Their potential absence is being overlooked in all the hoopla surrounding Leonard's status. That would really hurt the Warriors' defense and leave their bench thin. Both are questionable due to injuries. Iguodala had the best plus-minust average in the league of all reserves who played in at least 50 games.
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| 05-20-17 | Nationals -1.5 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
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The Nationals have lost three straight. They are in stop-the-pain mode and have just the pitcher to do that - Max Scherzer. Scherzer is the best right-hander in the National League. He's having another outstanding season this year going 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, second-best in the NL. The Nationals' bullpen has been shaky but should be better now with several late-inning relievers coming off the DL. Scherzer figures to pitch deep into the game, anyways, against a lackluster Atlanta lineup missing its best player, injured Freddie Freeman. Opponents are batting less than .200 against Scherzer. Scherzer dominated the Braves when he faced them a month ago at their new SunTrust Park giving up two hits in seven scoreless innings. The Nationals won that game, 3-1. Scherzer is 5-0 with a 3.12 ERA against Atlanta going back to last season. This is a real pitching mismatch as the Braves are going with Bartolo Colon, who turns 44 on Wednesday. Colon has really looked his age pitching for the Braves going 2-4 with a 6.80 ERA. Colon is facing a Nationals offense that leads the majors in runs, batting average and is No. 2 in homers. Washington has dominated this series winning 18 of the past 23 times. I believe this is a kill spot for the Nationals so I'm laying them on the run line in order to avoid paying such hefty juice. |
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| 05-20-17 | Red Sox -105 v. A's | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
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Boston is the superior team. The Red Sox are going against lefty Sean Manaea, who I regard as fade material. Yet the line is very competitive. The marketplace is concerned about Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz, who hasn't been sharp his last two starts leaving his last one against Tampa Bay on Sunday after three innings due to tightness in his left triceps. I believe Pomeranz will come in with a big game here having said he corrected a mechanical flaw in his delivery. The lefty also said he is healthy. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. Pomeranz has a strong history at Oakland's Coliseum having pitched for the A's in 2014 and 2015. He made nine starts there going 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA. Manaea doesn't have Pomeranz's talent. He's 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. This is his second start since coming off the DL with a strained left shoulder. Manaea was smacked for four runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in his last start. He was wild once again with five walks. The A's are 1-5 the past six times Manaea has started. The Red Sox saw Manaea last season and pounded him for eight runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are 18-8, too, during their last 26 games versus a lefty starter. |
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| 05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
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Can the Celtics end the Cavaliers' 12-game playoff win streak? No. Boston clearly is outclassed here. The Cavaliers rolled past the Celtics, 117-104, in Wednesay's series opener. The scary thing about that 13-point victory was the Cavaliers were rusty having not played for nine days previous to that. The 13-point final also was misleading. The Cavaliers blew out Boston. The Celtics scored a lot of meaningless points during the second half when the outcome was not in doubt. LeBron James is playing great. The Celtics have no answer for him. But Kyrie Irving only scored 11 points on Wednesday. He's capable of much bigger things. The Celtics just can't match up to the Cavaliers especially in the frontcourt. Sure Brad Stevens is going to make some adjustments. But just what can Stevens do? He doesn't have the personnel to stay competitive with the Cavaliers. The Celtics have some fatigue. They just finished a grueling seven-game series against the Wizards. This marks their third game in five days. The Cavaliers are totally fresh and won't be rusty now.
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| 05-19-17 | Penguins v. Senators +105 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
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The Penguins still may be able to defend their Stanley Cup title. I'm not counting them out. But let's get something straight: The Penguins are not the powerhouse of a year ago. This is a frustrated team with key holes caused by multiple injuries. Ottawa is home, where it has beaten Pittsburgh four of the past five times. This includes a confidence-building 5-1 victory two days ago. The Penguins have three goals in three games during this series. Lack of scoring has become a real problem for the Penguins as they have scored two or fewer goals in seven of their last eight games, including the past six. The Penguins are frustrated by the Senators' defensive shell and outstanding goaltending from Craig Anderson. Pittsburgh is pressing - and this isn't the right atmosphere and game to turn it around. The Senators struck for four goals during the first 13 minutes in Wednesday's 5-1 victory. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury showed a vulnerability that had not been on display during the playoffs. He was terrible. He's likely to be in goal again today, but now there are red flags. The Penguins also have Matt Murray, a young goalie with outstanding potential. Murray, though, would be rusty since Fleury has started every playoff game. Pittsburgh is down Kris Letang, its best defenseman. Justin Schultz probably is out, too. Yes, the Penguins have defensive reinforcements. But being without Letang and Schultz is huge. The Penguins' offensive depth is reduced, too, by injuries to forwards Bryan Rust and Patric Hornqvist.
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| 05-19-17 | Royals +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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If the Royals, World Series champions just two years ago, are going to make a move in the AL Central this is their opportunity. The Royals trail the first-place Twins by 4 1/2 games. I know it's only May. But the Royals have a number of key players who are prospective free agents. If the Royals don't get their season turned around there will be a fire sale in Kansas City. So this is an important series for Kansas City. The Royals have been less than stellar on the road. However, Minnesota is 9-12 at home. The Royals catch the Twins having played a doubleheader on Thursday and have a hot pitcher, Nate Karns, going. The Twins are pitching Hector Santiago, a bottom of the rotation guy who had a 5.58 ERA last season and is off his worst game of the year. I've always been intrigued by Karns because of his high strikeout rate. He is pitching great right now going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last three starts that include 29 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch. Minnesota isn't hitting either. The Twins are averaging 2.3 runs during their last six games. Santiago was lit up by the Indians this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits - including three homers - in just 2 2/3 innings.
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| 05-18-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
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This has the makings of a being a wild game with a pitching matchup of Dylan Covey versus Sam Gaviglio. Covey is off his best start striking out a career-high nine batters in a 5-4 win against the Padres this past Saturday. Covey did that in just 4 1/3 innings as he was lifted after reaching 91 pitches. He won't have to deal with Robinson Cano, who is on the DL. This isn't a play on Covey, though. Rather it's a fade on Gaviglio and a Mariners bullpen that lacks a clear-cut closer. I'd rather take insurance with plus 1 1/2 runs - especially with the White Sox being the visitor and getting an extra at bat against Seattle's vulnerable bullpen - then take a chance on a straight-up White Sox victory. The White Sox just got swept three games by the Angels. They remain on the West Coast. If you give them 1 1/2 runs, the White Sox would 13-9 in their last 22 games. That's a winning percentage of 59 percent. Seattle would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The Mariners have allowed five or more runs in six of their last nine games. Seattle averages 4.8 runs per game. So if the White Sox put up four-to-six runs that should do the trick especially with the added 1 1/2 run line cushion. This shouldn't be too much to ask of the White Sox. Gaviglio will be making his first big league start. He last pitched one week ago throwing two innings of relief giving up one run on two hits. Seattle has four-fifths of its starting pitching rotation on the DL. Gavilglio is a desperation option.
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| 05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
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Jhoulys Chacin is a stiff. But at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Chacin is a monster. He's 2-0 there this season with a 0.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Chacin will be facing a Milwaukee lineup that will be without Ryan Braun and probably Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, too. That's a combined 28 homers and 74 RBIs missing. Those are the Brewers' three leading home run hitters. Braun is the Brewers' best outfielder while Thames and Shaw are Milwaukee's cornermen. Now you know why the Padres are laying a price. I'm not buying Matt Garza either. He has pitched well in his past four starts. Don't expect a fifth straight good start. Garza is sporting a 2.66 ERA. Regression is in order. Garza's ERA the past two years have been 4.51 and 5.63. He surrendered 23 homers two seasons ago. The Padres are on pace to easily set a franchise record for homers in a season with 211 after smacking a team-best 177 last season.
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| 05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
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I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, nor of either team's bullpen. Both teams are swinging hots bats, too. So I find this total short. The White Sox are averaging six runs per game during their last six games. The Angels are putting up 5.2 runs per game during their past five games. I see offense prevailing here with a starting pitching matchup of Miguel Gonzalez versus Matt Shoemaker. Gonzalez is in bad form with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. He's fortunate his ERA isn't even higher during this span as he's allowed 28 hits and six walks during his last 17 2/3 innings surrendering four homers in this time frame. Gonzalez pitches worse on the road and Shoemaker pitches worse at home where his ERA is 5.48. Shoemaker also has a career 4.15 ERA against the White Sox. Slated home plate umpire Brian Gorman has shown a slight bias to the Over during the last two years with 56 percent of his 25 games behind the plate resulting in an over. The weather forecast is for a slight wind blowing out to left field.
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| 05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
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If Boston is ever going to steal a game in this Eastern Conference Finals this is its opportunity. The Celtics are home, playing well and have momentum. The Cavaliers last played on May 7. Being idle a full nine straight days is way too much especially at this juncture of the season. Not only does this prolonged time off potentially slow down the Cavaliers' mometum, but strongly suggests a rust factor. The key is are the Celtics good enough to take advantage? They weren't two years ago when the Cavaliers swept them. They are now. Boston has covered nine of its last 11 games, including its past five home contests. The Celtics have played three strong games in a row in blowing out the Wizards in Game 5, falling by one point on the road and then winning by double-digits in Game 7 at home on Monday. This is a short turnaround for the Celtics, but they were idle yesterday and didn't have to do any traveling having finished off the Wizards at home. The Celtics are not an old team either. They have enough legs, momentum and energy - fired-up by everyone completely ruling out their chances to win this series - to produce a strong effort here and take advantage of Cleveland's long layoff. During the regular season, the Celtics were 2 and 4-point favorites, respectively, in their two home games versus the Cavaliers. Now look at the spread. OK, this is the playoffs and the Cavaliers won't be holding back. But I'd still say this is line value. The Celtics also get a coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. LeBron James is going to bring it. He's the King. But Isaiah Thomas has raised his game to superstar level and he hasn't tailed off in the playoffs averaging 25.4 points during the postseason. Thomas is coming off a monster Game 7 clutch performance against the Wizards where he had 29 points, 12 assists and committed only two turnovers. Al Horford is having a strong playoffs, too, averaging 16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Horford's confidence is sky high in his outside shooting as he's made 21 of 36 3-pointers for 58.3 percent. Horford being hot from 3-point range is the Celtics' secret weapon and a matchup problem for the Cavaliers, who wouldn't be able to pay such strict attention to Thomas.
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| 05-17-17 | Penguins v. Senators +117 | 1-5 | Win | 117 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
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The Eastern Conference is tied 1-1 so Senators have some needed confidence with the series now shifting to Ottawa. The Senators gain the momentum of their boisterious home crowd, get last line change to ensure favorable matchups and their offensive task should be made easier with Pittsburgh now down its top three defensemen after Justin Schultz injured his shoulder in Game 2. The Penguins remain without Kris Letang and Trevor Daley. The Penguins' high-powered attack has been held to two goals in the two games frustrated by the defensive-minded Senators. Winger Bryan Rust might miss this game, too, for the Penguins after suffering an upper body injury during Monday's Game 2. That could be a key injury especially if winger Patric Hornqvist can't play due to his being injured. The Senators have held Sidney Crosby pointless. Crosby might start to get frustrated if he struggles again today. The Senators, though, need to pick it up offensively. Winger Viktor Stalberg could provide an offensive spark if he's able to come back from his injury today along with defenseman Mark Borowiecki. I wouldn't be surprised to see both players see ice time today. Factor all this in and I'd say the Senators are a worthy home 'dog.
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| 05-16-17 | Rockies +104 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
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Two of the surprise teams get together to begin a series today with the Rockies at the Twins. Both are leading their respective divisions. I believe the Rockies are the superior team. Minnesota is due for regression and I'm not a fan of Twins starter Phil Hughes, who takes the mound today. Hughes has a lifetime 4.43 ERA.It was 5.95 last season. His ERA is 4.74 this season. I regard him as one of the least effective starters in the majors. I'm much more intrigued by 24-year-old rookie Kyle Freeland, who starts for Colorado today. He's the Rockies' best starting pitcher in my view with Jon Gray sidelined. Freeland had a bad inning against the world champion Cubs in his last start. Prior to that, though, Freeland had allowed just two earned runs in his three previous starts spanning 19 1/3 innings. Colorado is 4-1 in his last five starts. The Rockies have been dynamite on the road going 11-5. Minnesota has a losing home record this season. Going back to last season, the Twins have dropped nine of their last 13 at Target Field. Colorado has the superior bullpen - no closer has been better than Greg Holland - and is a perfect 9-0 in one-run games. The Rockies' ability to win close games is proof to me that they are real this season compared to past years when they couldn't win narrow outcomes.
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| 05-16-17 | Ducks v. Predators -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
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Normally, I don't like to lay a price higher than $1.35 in a hockey game especially in the Stanley Cup where there have been lots of upsets this season. But I believe Nashville warrants backing at a little extra juice. The series is tied 1-1. The Predators, though, outplayed the Ducks during the two games in Anaheim. Now the Predators return to Nashville where they have won 19 of their last 26. The Predators have won nine playoff games in a row at Bridgestone Arena, including all five Stanley Cup games this season. The last time the Predators lost a playoff game at home was last season to the Ducks. The Predators won't forget that. The Ducks haven't made a road trip of this distance in quite a while. I like the coaches from both of these teams. I had the Ducks in Game 2 with part of my handicap being a belief that Anaheim coach Randy Carlyle would make the right adjustments and take advantage of getting to make the last line change since his team was home. Mission accomplished. However, now Carlyle loses that edge being the road coach. Nashville's Peter Laviolette may be the doing the best coaching job of any coach during the Stanley Cup. The Predators won Game 1 in Anaheim and led 2-0 in Game 2 before losing because goalie Pekka Rinne had a rare shaky performance. The Predators aren't going to blow a lead at home, especially a two-goal advantage, and Rinne had played extremely well in the playoffs up to the last game. I trust Rinne more than Anaheim goalie John Gibson, an average netminder who has been playing well above his head so far. The Predators have had a number of good looks, more than the Ducks. The Predators are due for a higher percentage of those shots to go in the net. Gibson doesn't have the track record to maintain this high of a level. Even though the Ducks scored five goals in the last game, I'm not sold that their offense has turned around. Corey Perry remain awful and the Predators have yielded just seven goals in regulation during their last seven home games.
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| 05-15-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +141 | 4-8 | Win | 141 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
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I see excellent value with the home 'dog Giants, who have beaten the Dodgers 18 of the last 24 times at AT&T Park. San Francisco is starting to show some life winning four of its last five. This is a big series for the Giants. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy hasn't pitched since April 29 because of a shoulder injury. He figures to be rusty even if he's 100 percent. McCarthy has a 7.36 ERA in five appearances versus the Giants, including four starts. The Giants are mid-sized 'dogs here because they are starting Matt Cain, who has a 4.54 ERA. Cain, however, is 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA at home where he's aided by the spacious dimensions of AT&T Park.
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| 05-15-17 | A's v. Mariners -113 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
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The record shows both teams have 21 losses. But the Mariners are clearly the better team in my view, are back at Safeco Field where they are 10-5 and stand a good chance of getting back star second baseman Robinson Cano for this game. Seattle ranks 10th in runs scored. Oakland is 25th. The A's have dropped 11 of their last 13 road games. The pitching matchup is lefty Sean Manaea versus Yovani Gallardo. Manaea will be making his first start since coming off the DL after straining his left shoulder. He has a 5.18 ERA and a 3.91 career ERA versus Seattle in four starts. The Mariners have a winning record against lefty starters. Oakland is 3-10 in Manaea's past 13 road starts. Gallardo is Seattle's lone healthy starter from its projected rotation. Gallardo is past his prime, but he still has enough on his fastball and is crafty enough to beat the weak-hitting A's. He defeated the A's last month giving up one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. The Mariners' bullpen could get a boost with the possible return of Steve Cishek today.
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| 05-14-17 | Predators v. Ducks -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
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After finally winning a Game 7 playoff series - beating Edmonton this past Wednesday - the Ducks had to open the Western Conference Finals against Nashville on Friday. The Ducks weren't ready mentally or physically, which is understandable given such a short turnaround. Yet, despite not playing anywhere near their best, the Ducks took the far-more rested Predators to overtime before losing, 3-2. Look for Anaheim to play much better with far more urgency in today's Game 2 matchup. A loss would put the Ducks down 0-2 going to Nashville. Crowd support should be better, too, with this being a Sunday game meaning less traffic on the freeway. I liked the Predators a lot to win that Game 1. It was my Stanley Cup Game of the Year. One reason for my strong opinion to Nashville was the goalie difference from Pekka Rinne, who has been outstanding, to John Gibson. But now the spot is different and the price is right to back Anaheim. Another reason for feeling this way is the way Gibson played on Friday. He was tremendous making 43 stops, including several super ones. I have far more confidence in Gibson now. I like how the Ducks banished their Game 7 demons with that victory against the Oilers and now they'll be more ready to play having gotten Game 1 out of the way. Fatigue could catch up to the Ducks, but not this early in the series. I trust Ducks coach Randy Carlyle to make the right in-game adjustments - something he did in the Oilers series - and for Anaheim's defense to tighten up and be more physical. Even with that Game 1 home loss, the Ducks still have won 68 percent of their past 68 home games.
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| 05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
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These two teams met at Oracle Arena to begin the season way back on Oct. 25. The Spurs were 8 1/2-point underdogs for that one. Final score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 100. OK, much has changed since then with one of them being Tony Parker is out with a ruptured quad. But not everything has changed to the detriment of San Antonio and for the betterment of Golden State. Mike Brown is now the acting coach for the Warriors with Steve Kerr ill. Brown is a much better assistant coach than head man. He can't compare to Gregg Popovich when it comes to head coaching. I've been following basketball for more than 50 years and Popovich is the best head coach I've ever seen. Certainly he's in the top-five all-time. The Spurs are riding the momentum of beating Houston, 114-75, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs to close out that series. That happened on Thursday. So the Spurs won't be rusty, but also have had two full days of rest and preparation. Golden State, on the other hand, hasn't played since Monday. That's too much time off between games. The Warriors very well could lose their edge because of the extended time off. Golden State has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when having had three or more days off. If the Warriors come out rusty, off-kilter and cold they won't even win the game let alone cover this monster double-digit point spread. The Spurs outrebounded the Warriors, 55-35, in that opening night victory. Golden State gave up 21 offensive rebounds, the most it allowed all season. Now the Warriors have become more cohesive since then, but rebounding remains a crucial area. The Spurs have a height advantage and two dangerous low-post scorers in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, who got hot late in the Rockets series showing his criics that he is not overrated. "If we give up offensive rebounds and they take more shots than us, it's going to be hard for us to win," Kevin Durant was quoted as saying when asked about this series. Golden State has reached the NBA Finals each of the last two seasons. Neither time, though, did they meet the Spurs in the playoffs. So playing such a mentally tough and well-coached team in the playoffs is going to be a new experience. San Antonio is 13-6-1 the past 20 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage above .600. I respect the heck out of the Warriors. They have super talent. But the Spurs are not exactly chopped liver. As great as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are, I would take Kawhi Leonard over anybody as far as being a two-way player. Leonard should be close to full strength, too, having been idle the past two days. Popovich has the necessary defenders to throw at Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson with emerging Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green and Patty Mills, who is replacing Parker at point guard. Parker is a savvy veteran, but Mills is underrated and in his prime. Parker was over-the-hill. The Spurs also have Dewayne Dedmond, a below-the-radar player who has the necessary athleticism to bother Golden State. The Spurs can milk their size. The Warriors can't do that. They need to hit their outside shots. San Antonio ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. The Spurs also rated fourth in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. Given all these factors plus the situation, it's my strong belief that this point spread is way out of whack. |
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| 05-14-17 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
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Later in the season is the time to go Over in Rangers' games when Arlington becomes a strong hitter's park as the Texas humidity really kicks in. Now, though, Arlington is an overrated hitter's park with 13 of Texas' last 16 home games going under the total. There's a slight wind blowing in for today's game, which is a rare early start for a Texas home game. That means batters could be affected by the sun being in their eyes. The slated home plate umpire, D.J. Reyburn, has an under bias. The under has cashed 57 percent of the time he's been behind the plate during the past three seasons spanning 54 games. Of course the biggest factor is the starting pitching matchup. I feel confident Kendall Graveman and A.J. Griffin will hold up their ends. Graveman is making his fourth start since coming off the DL. He was pitching well before going on the DL and has been slightly rusty since coming off. I see him pitching better here. He's given up fewer than three runs in three of his last four starts. Oddsmaker usually overprice the total on his starts. The under is 12-4 in Graveman's past 16 starts. Griffin is pitching his best ball - because he's finally healthy. He's 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and will be highly motivated facing the team he started his career. Oakland ranks 25th in runs and batting so his task is far from daunting.
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| 05-13-17 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
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Sometimes you have to take a leap of faith and play a zig/zag in baseball. That's the case for me here going under with a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus Edinson Volquez. Before getting into the starting pitchers, I'll point out Marlins Park is a pitcher's park and these are two below average offenses. The Marlins have injuries with their two best hitting infielders out. MIami's defense should be better than on Friday with former Golden Glover Dee Gordon moving back to his natural second base from shortstop. Now to the pitchers. Both are considered to be their respective team's No. 1 starters. That's certainly true in the case of the Braves with Teheran, who was very good last season. Teheran, however, has an 8.02 ERA during his last four starts. He's far, far better than that and overdue for a strong start. I believe it comes here. Volquez has a fat 4.71 ERA on the season and missed his last start due to blister. His walks are way up this season. Volquez is far from dominant, but he's a heady veteran who knows how to pitch. He has a good history against the Braves with a 4-3 lifetime mark and 2.89 ERA in eight starts. He had a 1.29 ERA versus Atlanta last season. Miami's top reliever, A.J. Ramos, is rested.
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| 05-12-17 | Predators +105 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
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Nashville is 8-2 in the playoffs. The Predators won Game 1 both at Chicago and at St. Louis. I see them making it three straight Stanley Cup Game 1 road victories here against the Ducks. Not only do the Predators have the history of starting fast on the road, but they also have that sense of urgency. Anaheim figures to be flat after ending a five consecutive Game 7 losing streak by defeating Edmonton Wednesday night in its Game 7 matchup. No NHL team ever had dropped six consecutive Game 7 playoff matchups. That was a grueling series the Ducks had against the Oilers. The Predators are the far fresher team having eliminated the Blues this past Sunday. Nashville doesn't have a superstar the caliber of Connor McDavid like the Oilers. However, the Predators have speed up front and better defensemen than the Oilers. They have a hot goalie, too, in Pekka Rinne. The Ducks are going to have to play extremely well to beat the Predators just like they did against the Oilers in Game 7. I don't see that happening given the short turnaround and the Predators' all around talent plus proven track record in Game 1 road matchups.
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| 05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
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Zigging and zagging in the playoffs doesn't just pertain to the sides. It also applies to the total. The past two games in this series have gone over with the combined scores adding up to 223 and 224 points. The last three games have been blowouts. I don't see that pattern continuing here. This is the time to switch gears and go Under the total. The Celtics have averaged just 95.2 points during their two playoff games at Verizon Center. The Celtics, though, will play with strong intensity. So will the Wizards with their season on the line and off a lackluster embarrassing Game 5 performance where they lost by 22 points at Boston. Look for each team to play their best transition defense of the series. There are no secrets nor surprises between these two teams anymore. Not going into Game 6. Boston has been getting unbelievable play from Al Horford, who is shooting 69.4 percent from the floor and hitting 58.8 percent from 3-point range. Horford is a good player, but those figures can't be sustained.
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| 05-12-17 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
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Seattle is an underrated offensive team. Only three teams have scored more runs than the Mariners. Seattle is averaging 7.7 runs in its last seven games if you discount a one-run performance they had against tough Yu Darvish. The Over has cashed in eight of Seattle's last 10 games. Toronto always has been a strong offensive club and now its bats are heating up as the Blue Jays have scored 15 runs during the past two games. The pitching matchup favors another high-scoring game as both starters are only in the rotation due to injuries. Seattle starter Christian Bergman is filling in for Hisashi Iwakuma, one of four Mariners starting pitchers on the DL. Bergman has mainly been a reliever. His career ERA is 5.71 in 56 games. Toronto starter Joe Biagini will be making only his second big league start. He's in the Blue Jay's rotation only because of injuries to Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ and Matt Latos being demoted. Biagini had made 74 career relief appearances before his first start. He'll be on a pitch count. Another plus for the over is Ted Barrett is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed in five of his six home plate appearances this season and 18 of 31 home plate appearances last year for a combined Over percentage of 62 percent the past two seasons.
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| 05-11-17 | Astros +113 v. Yankees | Top | 3-2 | Win | 113 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
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The Yankees have been the big early season success story, but the Astros have won eight of their last 10 and have the better pitcher going. Dallas Keuchel is looking like his Cy Young Award self of two seasons ago going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA. He is 4-2 lifetime versus the Yankees with a 1.41 ERA in six starts. Houston is 21-5 the past 26 times Keuchel has pitched on five day's rest, too. Houston is 4-0 in his last four road starts. Yankees starter Michael Pineda has looked good, too, during his last five starts. This isn't so much a fade on him but a chance to take Keuchel as an underdog. The spot isn't that great either for the Yankees returning from a five-game road trip.
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| 05-11-17 | Red Sox -133 v. Brewers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Red Sox by winning this game. Not with this pitching matchup and with Ryan Braun sitting out. Boston is the superior team and is 10-4 following a loss. Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching well holding his last five opponents to a combined six earned runs. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 18 innings. The Brewers have never faced him. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has an ERA close to 5.00. He hasn't gotten past the sixth inning during his last four starts. The Brewers are 7-20 in Nelson's last 27 outings.
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| 05-10-17 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
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Only two teams average fewer runs per game than San Diego. The Padres are averaging just 2.3 runs during their last six games. The Padres are facing one of the best pitchers in the American League, Yu Darvish. Darvish is especially tough in interleague games where NL teams aren't used to seeing him. He has a 7-2 record with a 2.09 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is one of the more underrated pitchers. He has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. No pitcher has a higher groundball rate than Perdomo. Right-handed batters are hitting only .180 against him. The under has cashed seven of the last 10 times Perdomo has started. Texas did score 11 runs on Tuesday. However, the Rangers averaged just 2.2 runs in their previous four games. Closers for both teams are rested. The weather forecast is overcast with wind blowing in at 15 mph. James Hoye is slated to be the home plate umpire. The under has cashed 58 percent of the time when Hoye has been the home plate umpire since 2013. Note, too, the under has cashed 10 of the past 12 times Texas has played at home.
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| 05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
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Houston was the second-leading scoring team in the NBA during the regular season averaging 115.3 points per game. The Rockets got back on track offensively in beating the Spurs, 125-104, this past Sunday at home in evening the series at 2-2. The bad news for Houston was losing Nene for the rest of the playoffs after he suffered a torn adductor. One of the keys to today's Game 5 is figuring out the ramifications of Nene's absence. I believe it's one of several factors that point to this total going Over. Ryan Anderson is going to get most of Nene's minutes now at center. Anderson isn't a center. He's far more of an outside shooter - and a good one - than an interior player. Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni is making no secret that he's going to try to win this series by playing up-tempo, small ball conceeding the Spurs a big inside advantage. D'Antoni wants to win by using his team's strength, which is firing up 3-pointers with as many great shooters as he can put on the court. If James Harden and Eric Gordon are forced to cover San Antonio big men, LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul Gasol, so be it. "We can keep scoring with them," D'Antoni was quoted as saying following Nene's injury. "And if they get a little flurry, we get one. They had trouble stopping us on the other end. You've really got to hold your breath a little bit because we have to play that way. That's how we play and it's not a safe way to go, but you've got to exploit what you have. That's team we have."
This is what Anderson was quoted as saying, "The more fast-paced tempo we have the better." So the Rockets aren't going to adjust. They are going to play their style. Houston hit 19 of 43 3-pointers during Sunday's Game 4 for 44 percent. Cleveland led the NBA in 3-point percentage at 43.4 percent. The Rockets made just 12 of 39 3-pointers in Game 3 for 30.7 percent. However, the Rockets were just cold in that game as they missed on 19 of 24 3-pointers in which they had an open look at the basket. Houston is going to get its points from beyond the arc. Harden is going to do his thing. But the Spurs also are going to get plenty of points, too, because of their inside dominance. San Antonio shot 64 percent from the floor during the last two quarters of Game 3. The Spurs shot 49.4 percent from the field in Game 4. They only produced 104 points in that game because they missed nine of 18 free throws. The Spurs ranked seventh in free throw percentage during the regular season at 79.7 percent. Bottom line here is that D'Antoni knows the Spurs are going to score plenty of points in the paint against his smaller team especially with Nene out. He doesn't care. His approach is ride his team's strength of shooting 3-pointers in the belief that more 3's outweigh two-point field goals. That's D'Antoni's style and it certainly is condusive to an Over happening. The Spurs have gone above the total in 10 of their last 12 games, including 8-2 in the playoffs. Only once has the under cashed during the past eight meetings between the two teams in San Antonio. |
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| 05-09-17 | Senators v. Rangers OVER 5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
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This isn't high juice to lay Over five goals being scored especially considering Ottawa is facing elimination with a loss. There have been at least five goals scored in each of the past four games with the teams combining for nine goals in the last game. The Rangers have scored at least four goals during their last four games. Neither goalie, Craig Anderson nor Henrik Lundqvist, is playing well. |
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| 05-09-17 | Mariners v. Phillies OVER 8 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
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Seattle has a top-10 offense. The Mariners are averaging 7.7 runs in their last four games if you discount a one-run performance when they faced Yu Darvish. Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff has tailed off after a strong April. He's given up a combined nine runs on 14 hits in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. Philadelphia has an above average offense and can do damage against Ariel Miranda, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. Miranda has been tagged for six homers in 33 innings this season and is pitching at Citizens Band Park, a far better offensive park than Safeco Field. Miranda has a 4.72 road ERA compared to 2.75 at Safeco Field.
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| 05-09-17 | Rangers -137 v. Padres | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
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Jered Weaver is washed up. He can't even pitch well at Petco Park. The Padres have a losing home record. |
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| 05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
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Golden State only put up 102 points on the Jazz in Game 3 this past Saturday. That was with its backcourt aces, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, combining to miss 22 of 29 shots from the floor. The pair were just 3-of-15 from 3-point range. Kevin Durant showed he was back in rhythm. The Jazz can't stop all of the Warriors' great scoring weapons. Utah, though, is going to play with tremendous offensive energy and should shoot better than 70 percent from the foul line like it did in Game 3. It's a plus for the Jazz if point guard George Hill can suit up after missing the last two games with a toe injury. There isn't just a zig zag to the side in these playoffs. It can also work on the total, which is the case here after the last game fell 14 1/2 points short of going over.
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| 05-08-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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There are certain pitchers you look forward to fading especially when the price is right. Trevor Bauer is one of those pitchers. And the price is low enough to back the home Blue Jays with the superior starter in Marcus Stroman. It's going to be difficult for the Indians to keep Bauer in their rotation with the way he's pitching. Only once during his first five starts has Bauer turned in a quality performance. Bauer has a 9.15 ERA in four night starts this season and has a 6.27 lifetime ERA in four career appearances versuse the Blue Jays. The Indians' two best relief pitchers carry high fatigue ratings, too, after each pitching during the last two days. Closer Cody Allen threw a combined 40 pitches during the weekend while Andrew Miller made 26 pitches. Stroman should be fine after leaving his last start after only three innings due to armpit tightness. He had allowed two runs or fewer in four of his five starts during April. It's an added plus for the Blue Jays if they get back their starting left side of their infield today as both third baseman Josh Donaldson and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could return from the DL.
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| 05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -131 | 5-4 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
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I don't see the Yankees sweeping the Cubs. The defending world champions were embarrassed by the Yankees Saturday. They are coming with their best, big-game pitcher, Jon Lester, who has a 1.50 home ERA. Chicago is 23-6 in Lester's past 29 starts at Wrigley Field. Yankees starter Luis Severino fell back to Earth in his last start giving up five runs in 5 2/3, including two homers, against the Blue Jays. The Yankees are 4-13 in Severino's last 17 starts, 2-6 during his past eight road outings.
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| 05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
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After outplaying the Celtics for stretches during the first two games of the series, the Wizards broke through this past Thursday in Game 3 winning by 27 points. I like the Wizards to win again at Verizon Center, where they covered 57 percent of the time during the regular season and are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS during the playoffs. The Wizards blew out the Celtics in Game 3 despite their dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal missing 20 of 31 shots from the floor, including nine of 11 3-point attempts. Wall has logged a ton of minutes so having an extra day of rest with two full days in between games should help him. The Wizards' frontcourt outplayed the Celtics and now Washington has big man Ian Mahimmi back in the rotation. It's telling that the Wizards rolled past the Celtics at home in Game 3 despite poor shooting from their backcourt, which is the strength of their team.
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| 05-07-17 | Giants -109 v. Reds | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
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The Giants aren't playing well and are banged-up in the outfield. But this low price puts me on San Francisco in a pitching matchup of Johnny Cueto versus Scott Feldman. Cueto remains an elite hurler and is pumped to go against his former team. San Francisco has won 16 of Cueto's last 22 road stars and 28 of his last 39 overall starts. The Giants are 5-1 in Cueto's starts this season. The Reds, on the other hand, are 1-5 in Feldman's starts this season. That makes sense considering Feldman's ERA is close to 5.00 Feldman is 1-4 lifetime against the Giants with a 3.86 ERA. I also trust the Giants' late relief more than Cincinnati's.
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| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 06-28-17 | Phillies v. Mariners -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
| 06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
| 06-27-17 | Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
| 06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
| 06-25-17 | Mets v. Giants -134 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
| 06-24-17 | Tigers v. Padres -102 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
| 06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC UNDER 59.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
| 06-23-17 | Mets +106 v. Giants | Top | 11-4 | Win | 106 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
| 06-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal UNDER 50 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
| 06-22-17 | Cubs -122 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
| 06-22-17 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
| 06-21-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
| 06-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
| 06-20-17 | Tigers +137 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
| 06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
| 06-19-17 | Nationals -108 v. Marlins | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
| 06-18-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Orioles | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
| 06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
| 06-17-17 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
| 06-16-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
| 06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -128 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
| 06-14-17 | Orioles -126 v. White Sox | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
| 06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
| 06-13-17 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Tigers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
| 06-12-17 | Rockies +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
| 06-11-17 | Penguins v. Predators -137 | 2-0 | Loss | -137 | 36 h 58 m | Show | |
| 06-11-17 | Mets v. Braves -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
| 06-10-17 | Royals -112 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
| 06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
| 06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -117 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
| 06-08-17 | Twins v. Mariners -113 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
| 06-08-17 | Predators v. Penguins -150 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
| 06-07-17 | Warriors -3 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
| 06-07-17 | Giants +122 v. Brewers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
| 06-07-17 | Indians v. Rockies +115 | 1-8 | Win | 115 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
| 06-06-17 | Nationals -116 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
| 06-05-17 | Nationals +118 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
| 06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
| 06-04-17 | Braves v. Reds UNDER 10 | 13-8 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
| 06-03-17 | Twins +100 v. Angels | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
| 06-03-17 | Penguins v. Predators -131 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
| 06-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
| 06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 107 h 27 m | Show |
| 06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Marlins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
| 05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
| 05-31-17 | Predators +133 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
| 05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers +105 | 5-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
| 05-30-17 | A's +152 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
| 05-29-17 | Rays v. Rangers -115 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
| 05-29-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 9.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
| 05-28-17 | Rays -101 v. Twins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
| 05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -113 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
| 05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
| 05-26-17 | Cubs +122 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
| 05-25-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
| 05-25-17 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
| 05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
| 05-24-17 | White Sox +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
| 05-23-17 | Penguins v. Senators UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 124 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
| 05-23-17 | Rangers +184 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
| 05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
| 05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | 129-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
| 05-22-17 | Pirates -119 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
| 05-21-17 | Celtics +17.5 v. Cavs | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
| 05-21-17 | Rangers -119 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
| 05-21-17 | Angels -104 v. Mets | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
| 05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
| 05-20-17 | Nationals -1.5 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
| 05-20-17 | Red Sox -105 v. A's | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
| 05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
| 05-19-17 | Penguins v. Senators +105 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
| 05-19-17 | Royals +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
| 05-18-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
| 05-17-17 | Brewers v. Padres -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
| 05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 7.5 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
| 05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
| 05-17-17 | Penguins v. Senators +117 | 1-5 | Win | 117 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
| 05-16-17 | Rockies +104 v. Twins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 104 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
| 05-16-17 | Ducks v. Predators -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
| 05-15-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +141 | 4-8 | Win | 141 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
| 05-15-17 | A's v. Mariners -113 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
| 05-14-17 | Predators v. Ducks -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
| 05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
| 05-14-17 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
| 05-13-17 | Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
| 05-12-17 | Predators +105 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
| 05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
| 05-12-17 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
| 05-11-17 | Astros +113 v. Yankees | Top | 3-2 | Win | 113 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
| 05-11-17 | Red Sox -133 v. Brewers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
| 05-10-17 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
| 05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
| 05-09-17 | Senators v. Rangers OVER 5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
| 05-09-17 | Mariners v. Phillies OVER 8 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
| 05-09-17 | Rangers -137 v. Padres | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
| 05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
| 05-08-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
| 05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -131 | 5-4 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
| 05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
| 05-07-17 | Giants -109 v. Reds | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
