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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-11-18	Lions +7.5 v. Bears		22-34	Loss	-135	35 h 39 m	Show
Sitting two games behind the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North Division, the Lions desperately need to win this game. They should play with a strong sense of urgency. So the effort should be there. I like getting this many points in this division rivalry. The Lions have owned the Bears beating them nine of the last 10 times, including the past three. Chicago is much improved this season. But the Lions have the superior quarterback. That's huge. The Bears rely first on their ground attack. Detroit's ranks 30th in run defense. The Lions, however, have improved their rush defense after trading for defensive lineman Damon Harrison. If you discount a 70-yard run by Dalvin Cook, the Lions would have held the Vikings to 58 yards rushing on 22 carries for a 2.6 yard average last Sunday. This line is inflated because Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times in the Lions' 24-9 road loss to the Vikings. That sack figure is an outlier, though, as in their previous seven games the Lions allowed just 13 sacks, an average of fewer than two per game. Line value, quarterback, history and sense of urgency are all on the Lions' side here.
11-10-18	Nets v. Warriors -7	Top	100-116	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
Even without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State is strong enough to dispatch the Nets by double-digits at home especially given the circumstances. The Warriors are far the superior team and probably have the best bench in the league. The Warriors are in bounce back mode after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Bucks on Thursday in an embarrassing 23-point home loss. The Nets are off a dramatic 112-110 road win against the Nuggets last night, winning when Caris LeVert hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left. The Nets can be a pesky 'dog on the road - but not when a vastly better foe takes them serious. That will be the case here.
11-10-18	76ers v. Grizzlies -127		106-112	Win	100	9 h 6 m	Show
The Grizzlies are much better this season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy plus having a stronger bench. The Grizzlies are 4-0 SU and ATS at home. They've been idle the past couple of days after knocking off the red-hot Nuggets at home. The spot sets up well for the Grizzlies as they catch the 76ers off a draining overtime home victory against the Hornets last night and playing for the third time in four days. JJ Redick logged more than 36 minutes while Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Dario Saric all played more than 39 minutes. The 76ers have failed to cover in eight of their last nine road contests going back to last season while the Grizzlies are on a streak of seven straight home covers.
11-10-18	Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	21-27	Loss	-115	43 h 10 m	Show
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
11-10-18	Senators v. Lightning OVER 6		6-4	Win	100	5 h 47 m	Show
Tampa Bay is the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. The Lightning have scored four or more goals in each of their last four games. Ottawa gives up the most goals in the league. The Senators, though, are sixth in the NHL in scoring. They have produced 13 goals in their last three games. The Over has cashed in the Senators' last seven road games. The Over also has cashed the past five times these teams have met.
11-10-18	Michigan v. Rutgers +39.5		42-7	Win	100	40 h 30 m	Show
Michigan just got through beating Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, all of whom were ranked teams at the time they played Michigan. The Wolverine are going to be hard-pressed to take Rutgers seriously. I envision a flat effort by the Wolverines - and I couldn't blame them. The Wolverines are 0-7 ATS the past seven times they've been on the road playing a foe with a losing home mark. Bottom line: Too many points for Michigan to lay.
11-10-18	Washington State -6 v. Colorado		31-7	Win	100	38 h 29 m	Show
Washington State has won five in a row and has the best spread mark in the country at 8-1 ATS. Colorado is going in the opposite direction with four straight losses. The Buffaloes have lost by 11, 14, 7 and 8 points in their last four games. Their defense is wearing down giving up 83 points and 1,025 yards in the last two games. Colorado has skill position injuries. The Buffs aren't going to be able to keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack. Cougars QB Gardner Minshaw leads the nation in passing yards per game and completions. He has three outsanding wide receiving targets and a versatile running back in James Williams. Colorado can't match that.
11-10-18	Troy v. Georgia Southern UNDER 45		35-21	Loss	-102	36 h 33 m	Show
Defense should carry the day especially with a wind factor. Both teams rank in the top 40 in fewest points allowed per game. Troy hasn't permitted more than 21 points during its past five games. It's a red flag that Georgia Southern could manage only one touchdown on offense and 216 yards against UL-Monroe last week. Georgia Southern has held three of its last five opponents to 14 points or fewer. The clock should keep moving with Georgia Southern running on 79 percent of its plays using a triple-option offense. Troy ranks 26th in run defense.
11-10-18	Ohio State -3.5 v. Michigan State		26-6	Win	100	46 h 28 m	Show
I certainly respect Michigan State's defense. But it is going to wear down against Ohio State's offense. There's a monster gap between Ohio State's skill position players - quarterback Dwayne Haskins, running back J.K. Dobbins and wide receivers Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill - and Michigan State's backfield personnel especially with the Spartans having ineffective Brian Lewerke at quarterback. The Buckeyes won't lack motivation either still in the national title picture. They stomped the Spartans, 48-3, last season.
11-09-18	Fresno State v. Boise State +3	Top	17-24	Win	100	25 h 16 m	Show
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
11-09-18	Hornets v. 76ers -5.5		132-133	Loss	-115	8 h 31 m	Show
The 76ers are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS at home. This is their lone home game during a six-game span. So Philadelphia should not lack motivation. They draw Charlotte in a fat and happy mood. The Hornets just posted home victories - against the lowly Cavaliers and Hawks. This is the Hornets' first road game since Oct. 27, when they lost 105-103 to the 76ers. Philadelphia nipped the Hornets. This return matchup should not be as close. The 76ers shot just 38.5 percent from the field in that victory. Dario Saric, a key and underrated player for the 76ers, has elevated his game since then after a slow start. The Hornets may be minus their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He's questionable with a finger injury. The 76ers have played a tough early schedule. Their won/lost record is skewed by road losses to the three best teams in the Eastern Conference right now - Raptors, Bucks and Celtics. The 76ers are coming off a confidence-building 100-94 road win against the Pacers in which Saric had his best performance of the season. Philadelphia has defeated Charlotte seven times in a row, including the past four at home.
11-08-18	Panthers v. Steelers -3.5	Top	21-52	Win	100	80 h 57 m	Show
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
11-08-18	Oilers +118 v. Panthers		1-4	Loss	-100	18 h 16 m	Show
The wrong team opened as the favorite here. Yes, Florida is the home team. But the Panthers are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are 0-3 at BB&T Center where they play their home games. The Oilers have dominated the Panthers in Florida winning in their last nine visits! Edmonton is off losses in its last two games. But those defeats came to the Capitals and Lightning. Now they are stepping down in class. It's a weird spot, too, for the Panthers. They were in Finland last week as part of the NHL Global Series. Their last game was on Friday. So there could be a jet lag and rust factor.
11-07-18	Predators v. Avalanche +104		4-1	Loss	-100	22 h 50 m	Show
Call it a due factor. But Nashville is due to lose a road game after winning its first six away matchups. The Predators won half of those games by one goal with a fourth road win coming by two goals due to an empty net score with less than a minute left. The Avalanche have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Predators eliminated them in six games during the playoffs last season. Colorado has had plenty of time to focus and prepare having been idle the last four days. Colorado ranks No. 2 behind Washington in goals per game. The Avalanche have won 22 of their past 31 home games. The Predators are likely to still be without their third-leading scorer, Viktor Arvidsson. He's missed the past two games with a lower body injury. Nashville hasn't been a team to go against this season, but this is the spot to do it.
11-07-18	Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4	Top	87-89	Win	100	9 h 41 m	Show
The last time the Nuggets blasted out of the blocks this well was 1976. They are 9-1. But this is a spot to step in against them. Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS at home. All of its home victories are by 12 or more points. The Grizzlies have covered in their last six home games going back to last season. FedEx Forum is a strong home-court for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode after losing the final two games of their road trip with the last occurring to the Warriors two days ago. Memphis is much improved from last season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and having a deeper bench. Denver is in a letdown spot after a huge home victory against the Celtics on Monday. The Nuggets are not that strong away from Pepsi Center going 1-2 ATS during their past three away matchups. Denver also has bad recent track record versus Southwest Division foes going 0-6 ATS against them.
11-06-18	Nets v. Suns +1	Top	104-82	Loss	-106	21 h 53 m	Show
Can the Suns win two in a row? Yes. Phoenix is a different team when Devin Booker is healthy like he is now. The Suns upset the Grizzlies at home this past Sunday. It was Booker's second game back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. That win halted a seven-game Phoenix losing streak and has given the Suns confidence. Booker was the key. He is one of the best players in the league although he doesn't get a lot of publicity. Phoenix will have the two best players on the court in Booker and rookie Deandre Ayton when they host Brooklyn Tuesday. The Nets are 1-4 on the road. Their lone away win was against the Cavaliers, who have the worst record in the NBA at 1-9. The Nets last were on the road eight days ago when they were blasted by the Knicks, 115-96.
11-06-18	Canadiens v. Rangers -110		3-5	Win	100	7 h 44 m	Show
The home team has won the past four times. I see that pattern continuing here. The Rangers have won three in a row, including knocking off a hot Sabres team, 3-1, at home this past Sunday. New York goalie Henrik Lundqvist is in excellent form going 4-0 with a 0.94 GAA and .967 save percentage during his past four games. This isn't just a play on the Rangers, but a fade on Montreal. The Canadiens just nipped the Islanders, 4-3, in a shootout on the road last night. Montreal came back from a 3-1 deficit to pull out the win. The Canadiens are 5-16 following a victory. This marks their third game in four days. They are 1-6 the past seven times under those circumstances.
11-05-18	Titans v. Cowboys OVER 39.5	Top	28-14	Win	100	12 h 2 m	Show
In today's NFL where all the rules are skewed toward offense a total like this is just too low unless you are the Jets, Bills or Dolphins quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler. The Titans and Cowboys are none of the above teams. Dallas' offense actually is respectable now that it has a lead wide receiver in Amari Cooper. The Cowboys average 28.6 points at home. Dallas put up 40 points on Jacksonville during its last home game. The Jaguars have a better defense than Tenneseee. Ezekiel Elliott is a top-five running back. Dak Prescott is a highly mobile quarterback. The Titans have a below average run defense ranking 19th. Both teams are rested and have had ample time to add wrinkles to their offense having been idle last week. The Titans' offense has been disappointing. That should start to change as Marcus Mariota has gotten healthy discarding a glove he had been wearing on his throwing hand due to numbness. The Cowboys are down one of their key pass rushers with David Irving sideined with an ankle injury. Mariota is not a good downfield thrower, but he like Prescott is extremely mobile and he has a dangerous dump-off back to throw to in Dion Lewis. Titans first-year head coach Mike Vrabel has already established himself as a gambler, a foolish one so far. But a gambler nevertheless, which is another plus for the Over.
11-05-18	Canadiens +105 v. Islanders		4-3	Win	105	9 h 6 m	Show
Montreal is improved this season and has shown an ability to win on the road going 2-3 with impressive victories against the Penguins and Bruins. All three of Montreal's road defeats were by one goal, with two occurring in overtime. The Canadiens won't lack motivation coming off a disappointing 1-2 homestand. They played tough competition, though, beating the Capitals and losing to the Stars and Lightning. The Islanders are fat and happy winning five in a row, including a rivalry winner against New Jersey this past Saturday. The Islanders head off to Florida for a pair of games following this matchup. So their focus might not be all there. The Canadiens have dominated the Islanders on the road winning seven of the last eight times.
11-04-18	Packers v. Patriots OVER 56	Top	17-31	Loss	-109	34 h 17 m	Show
Neither defense can stop the other team's offense. The Packers played perhaps their finest defensive game of the season last week against the Rams yet still surrendered 29 points, which could been 36 points if Todd Gurley didn't fall down right before the goal line at the end of the game. Now the Packers go from West to East to face another high-powered offense and a better quarterback, Tom Brady. Look for Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel to play giving Brady his full arsenal of weapons. Until beating the Bills 25-6 on the road this past Monday, the Patriots were averaging 39.2 points in their last four games. Green Bay lacks the pass rushers, coverage linebackers and secondary to get stops against Brady. The Packers traded away safety Ha Ha Clinton Dixon this week for a draft choice. Dixon wasn't an All-Pro, but he was a steady force on Green Bay's defense having played all but three snaps during his five seasons. His departure leaves Kentrell Brice, who is below average, as the only experienced safety. Brady is sure to exploit this. So, too, with Gronkowski. Aaron Rodgers can hurt a Patriots defense that is only good when cripple shooting bad quarterbacks in their weak AFC East Division. New England gave up an average of 30.2 points to the Jaguars, Colts. Lions and Chiefs.
11-04-18	Grizzlies v. Suns +4		100-102	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
Phoenix has lost seven in a row since beating Dallas by 21 points in its opener. So I understand a reluctance to back the Suns. But Memphis is vulnerable here and the Suns are dangerous at home with Devin Booker back for his second game after being out three games with a hamstring injury. The Suns were competitive with Booker's return to the lineup in a 107-98 home loss to the Raptors Friday. The Raptors are far superior to the Grizzlies. Memphis is 0-2 on the road in games not against the Jazz. The Grizzlies lost by five points to the Kings in Sacramento and were buried by 28 points to the Pacers in Indiana. Memphis averages 94.2 points in four road matchups. The Grizzlies are coming off a highly-satisfying 110-100 away victory against the Jazz on Friday. Memphis has a road game against the Warriors on deck Monday. The Grizzlies are likely to look past the Suns, who they destroyed, 117-96, at home on Oct. 27. The Grizzlies shot 55.7 percent from the floor in that win. Booker did not play in that game. Memphis ranks 20th in field goal percentage at 44.5 percent. They are not likely to repeat that earlier shooting performance against the Suns. The Suns are a far better team with a healthy Booker. He is their key being their leading scorer at 25.8 points and ball distributor. Phoenix has a much improved roster. No. 1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton is living up to expectations and Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are reliable veterans who help balance the Suns' promising youth. This is early season revenge for the Suns and a stop-the-pain game for them. They will be the more motivated team and they are better than their record now that Booker is healthy.
11-04-18	Steelers +3 v. Ravens		23-16	Win	100	27 h 58 m	Show
These teams are heading in different directions. Pittsburgh is coming on winning its past three games, all by seven or more points. The Steelers are averaging 34 points in their last three games. James Conner has made everyone not miss Le'Veon Bell. Pittsburgh's defense has improved, too, holding foes to 18.3 points in the last three games. Baltimore, by contrast, has dropped three of its last four. Joe Flacco has regressed to where he was last season - terrible. The Ravens also have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line with both of their starting tackles out. Losing left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a huge below-the-radar injury. It means Jermaine Eluemunor will be making his first NFL start. The Steelers' pass rush has come on to rank seventh in sack ratio and second in quarterback hits. Flacco, more than most quarterbacks, gets rattled under pressure. The Steelers have a monster skill posiiton edge with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Conner. This is one of the most fierce rivalries in the NFL. The Steelers have short revenge for a home loss to the Ravens five weeks ago. The Steelers are the fresher team having had their bye just two weeks ago. Baltimore doesn't get its bye until after this game.
11-04-18	Falcons +2.5 v. Redskins		38-14	Win	100	27 h 56 m	Show
I've been looking to fade the Redskins - and this is the spot to do it. Washington has won three in a row. The Redskins don't have a good history, though, under Jay Gruden of following a win with a good performance being 4-10 ATS after winning in their previous game. The Redskins are an average team at best with a below average quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington's style is run the ball with Adrian Peterson and play stout run defense. The Falcons are not a good opponent for that style to work. Matt Ryan is having a strong season. He's riding a 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games. He has thrown for more than 350 yards in four of those five games. Ryan rates a huge edge on Smith, who rarely completes downfield passes. Ryan challenges secondaries. Smith doesn't. The Falcons are off a bye. They've had ample weeks to patch up their battered defense. The Redskins lack the dynamic offense to take advantage. Washington also will be without its best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out following surgery on his thumb.
11-04-18	Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 52.5		37-21	Loss	-110	27 h 55 m	Show
The Browns' offense was a mess with Hue Jackson and Todd Haley in charge of it. It remains a mess now that both Jackson and Haley are gone.They have no experienced play-caller with Jackson and Haley both sacked. This makes it rough on rookie Baker Mayfield. Kansas City's defense has looked better the past couple of weeks. Cleveland has a respectable defense that plays better at home. The Browns have held three of their four home opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs are coming off their lowest offensive output of the season picking up 340 yards against Denver last week. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was elevated to interim coach replacing Jackson. He's a defensive guy who will do anything not to get embarrassed by the Chiefs' high-powered offense in his Browns head coaching debut. Under Williams, the Browns are leading the NFL with 22 takeaways, including 12 interceptions. Cleveland has come up with two or more takeaways in seven of its eight games. The Chiefs defense has stepped up to average two takeaways during their last five games. There also is a weather element to this matchup. The forecast is for clear skies and temperatures in the low 50s, but with wind blowing in the 13-15 mph range.
11-03-18	Louisiana Tech +23.5 v. Mississippi State		3-45	Loss	-105	30 h 8 m	Show
This is your classic sandwich spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge home win against Texas A&M and have Alabama on deck next week. So the Bulldogs aren't going to be taking this non-conference matchup too serious. Mississippi State also isn't a good team to lay big points on. The Bulldogs rank 107th in passing yards. Nick Fitzgerald is more dangerous as a runner than thrower. Louisiana Tech's top defensive strength is its pass defense. So Mississippi State is going to have to grind away on the ground, which eats a lot of clock. The Bulldogs' best runner is Kylin Hill, who is questionable after missing last week's game with a leg injury. It wouldn't be surprising if Hill sat out so he would fresh for Alabama. Louisiana Tech is well-coached under Skip Holtz. Under Holtz, Louisiana has covered seven of its last nine road games as an underdog against the power-five conference teams. Tech is 8-2 ATS versus SEC foes. The latest example occurred in Week 3 when Tech hung in and covered a 19-point road spread against LSU, a team that beat Mississippi State, 19-3, just two weeks ago.
11-03-18	Houston -14 v. SMU	Top	31-45	Loss	-113	30 h 22 m	Show
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
11-03-18	Lightning -118 v. Canadiens		4-1	Win	100	18 h 11 m	Show
Montreal is much improved this season. Because of that this becomes a big early game that Tampa Bay is sure to be up for especially after losing 4-1 at home to Nashville on Thursday. The Lightning outshot the Predators, 43-24, in that frustrating loss. Tampa Bay leads Montreal by just one point for the top spot in the East. The Lightning still are superior to the Canadiens even if Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Victor Hedman has to miss another game due to an upper body injury. The Lightning have won eight of their last 11 road games. The Canadiens are coming off a huge 6-4 home victory against the defending Stanley Cup champion Capitals on Thursday. Montreal is 2-9 the past 11 times following a victory and aren't likely to turn in another "A" game type of performance so soon.
11-03-18	South Carolina v. Ole Miss OVER 65	Top	48-44	Win	100	113 h 40 m	Show
Look for Mississippi's high-flying offense to take off again following a 31-16 home loss to Auburn two weeks ago. The Rebels were idle last week. The Rebels had scored a combined 107 points in their previous two games before losing to Auburn. Mississippi has three outstanding skill position players in quarterback Jordan Ta'amu, running back Scottie Phillips and A.J. Brown, who could be the first wide receiver picked in next spring's NFL draft. Only four teams have gained more yards on the season per game than the Rebels. South Carolina has enough offense to stay up there in points with Ole Miss, which ranks 124th in yards given up per game. The Over has cashed in 10 of Mississippi's past 14 SEC games.
11-03-18	Syracuse v. Wake Forest OVER 75.5		41-24	Loss	-122	25 h 54 m	Show
Syracuse has only failed to score at least 30 points once all season. The Orangemen are averaging more than 43 points a game. Wake Forest's defense has fallen apart giving up 45.3 points per game during its past three matchups. Wake Forest ranks 13th in rushing. This matches up to Syracuse's weak rush defense, which ranks 72nd. The Demon Deacons have hit 56 points twice in their last four games, including 56 at Louisville in their last game. There were 107 points scored in last year's game won by Wake Forest, 64-43. Expect a simila score this time around, too.
11-03-18	Air Force v. Army OVER 42		14-17	Loss	-105	25 h 38 m	Show
Yes there is going to be a lot of running in this game. But this is a low total and the caliber of these team's rush attacks is very strong. Army ranks No. 2 in the rushing while Air Force rates No. 8. This game is on turf not grass, too. The Over has cashed eight of the last 11 times Army has been on turf. Air Force has gone above the total in seven of its last nine games.
11-02-18	Knicks v. Mavs -6		118-106	Loss	-105	19 h 15 m	Show
The record won't show it because of a five-game losing streak, but Dallas is a much improved team. The Mavericks added a premier defensive center, DeAndre Jordan, and a star rookie point guard, Luka Doncic, to a veteran lineup that also has reliable Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews to go along with promising second-year guard Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavericks have played strong competition during their losing skid with four of the defeats coming to the Raptors, Jazz, Spurs and Lakers. Dallas lost to the Spurs in overtime and Lakers by one point during its last two games, both on the road. Now Dallas is home for only the fourth time this season. The Mavericks are not only home, but get to step way down in class, too, drawing the Knicks. The Knicks are 1-6 in their last seven games. They are 0-3 on the road losing their past two away games by a combined 34 points to the Bucks and Heat.
11-02-18	Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5	Top	10-29	Win	100	19 h 7 m	Show
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
11-02-18	Rockets -3 v. Nets		119-111	Win	100	18 h 15 m	Show
The 1-5 Rockets are on the road for the first time since Oct. 21. Good. They need to get away from Houston. The Rockets are the most disappointing team in the NBA during the first couple of weeks. This is the start of a season-high five-game road trip for the Rockets. I don't see them sinking any lower by losing to the bottom-feeding Nets especially since the Nets are off a satisfying 120-119 overtime victory against the Pistons this past Wednesday night. The Nets are a good effort team. I especially like them as a road 'dog. But they can't match the Rockets' talent even if James Harden remains out. Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Carmelo Anthony still are better than anybody on Brooklyn. The Rockets aren't nearly as good as their franchise-record 65-win team of a season ago. But they are far better than their 1-5 record shows. Houston ranks 29th in field goal percentage and 23rd in 3-point shooting. They are due to greatly improve in those key statistical areas. Keep in mind, too, the Rockets have faced nothing but Western Conference teams - all of whom are playoff contenders. This is their first game versus an Eastern Conference opponent and a lottery one at that.
11-01-18	Raiders +3 v. 49ers	Top	3-34	Loss	-103	49 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
11-01-18	Bucks v. Celtics -3		113-117	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
Milwaukee is the only remaining unbeaten team in the NBA. It's not a fluke. The Bucks have had below-the-radar talent the past couple of seasons and now they finally have the right coach in Mike Budenholzer to maximize that talent. But Boston trumps Milwaukee in terms of overall talent and bench strength. The Celtics also have the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The spot sets up well for Boston, too. The Bucks are coming off a huge home win against the Raptors. This marks their fourth game in six days. It is just Milwaukee's third road game of the season. The Celtics are the best team the Bucks have faced. The Celtics guard their home court well covering 17 of their last 22 home games. They have covered against the Bucks in eight of the last 10 meetings. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has to miss a second consecutive game because of a concussion.
11-01-18	Jets v. Panthers UNDER 6		4-2	Push	0	12 h 21 m	Show
Both the Jets and Panthers will be playing for the first time in five days. The reason is this game is being played in Helsinki, Finland as part of the 2018 NHL Global Series. Strange place, strange start time of 2 p.m. Florida time. All of this is a plus for the Under. So is the Jets failing to score more than two goals in each of their past three games. The Panthers haven't broken the three-goal barrier in any of their last four games.
10-31-18	Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks	Top	107-101	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
I see the Pacers bouncing back from a disappointing home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Trail Blazers are off to a fast start and they played well against Indiana. The Pacers are a much better team than the rebuilding Knicks, who are 2-5 with their victories coming against the lowly Hawks and Nets. The Pacers entered their matchup against the Trail Blazers having posted road victories against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Victor Oladipo, though, had an off-shooting night against the Trail Blazers after connecting on 17 of 27 shots from the floor against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Indiana has a strong record in bounce back situations like this going 16-5 ATS following a loss. New York is fat and happy after halting a five-game losing streak with a resounding revenge win against the Nets on Monday, 115-96.
10-30-18	Senators v. Coyotes OVER 5.5		1-5	Win	100	9 h 7 m	Show
Arizona is averaging five goals per game during its last last three games. The Coyotes get to face the league's worst defense as Ottawa ranks in the bottom-two in many of the major defensive categories. Ottawa also is shorthanded on the blue line with Mark Borowiecki suspended. The Senators, though, rank sixth in goals scored per game. They have gone Over in each of their last five road games.
10-30-18	Clippers v. Thunder -145		110-128	Win	100	17 h 41 m	Show
The Thunder have had this game circled after losing to the Clippers, 108-92, at home 11 days ago. Oklahoma City was without Russell Westbrook in that game. Westbrook has played in three games now. The rust is off and the Thunder are ready to make a move. They looked good in dispatching the Suns, 117-110, at home this past Sunday. That was the Thunder's first win after opening the season with four consecutive losses. Oklahoma City beat the Clippers in both meetings last season, winning by an average of 8.5 points. Now that Westbrook is back and in sync with Paul George and newcomer Dennis Schroder, the Thunder should start playing better.
10-30-18	Blazers v. Rockets -3	Top	104-85	Loss	-111	17 h 40 m	Show
The Rockets are off to a horrendous 1-4 start after winning an NBA-best 65 games last season. I understand the Rockets have yet to resemble anything they looked like last season and will be without injured James Harden. Still, I believe the Rockets are primed for a monster effort. They have been idle since Friday. Portland, on the other hand, played on Monday night and upset the Pacers in Indiana. This marks Portland's third game in four days. The Trail Blazers do not have great depth and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a victory. Houston has owned Portland in the past winning seven of the last eight meetings, including all four last season.
10-30-18	Kings v. Magic -4		107-99	Loss	-107	16 h 40 m	Show
Yes, laying points with Orlando is a new experience, an experience I rarely want to go through. But it's justified here. The Kings appear improved this season, but they are in a real letdown spot after upsetting the Heat in Miami Monday night for their third straight victory. However, this marks the Kings' fifth game in eight days and second in two nights. Orlando is up and down. But the Magic have the better talent with Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are capable of good things having already defeated the Heat and Celtics while losing by only one point to the 76ers. Orlando is better coached than in previous seasons and is surrendering eight fewer points per game than the Kings, who rank 27th defensively.
10-29-18	Wild v. Canucks +135		2-5	Win	135	14 h 6 m	Show
The Canucks are far more dangerous when they have star goal scorers Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson in the lineup. Both are back healthy. Vancouver's power play is much more deadlier with those two on the ice. Minnesota is a road favorite based in part on a five-game win streak. Note, though, that four of those victories came at home for the Wild. They have a losing road record this season. Vancouver has an overall winning record. However, the Canucks are coming off a 5-0 home loss to Pittsburgh. The Canucks shouldn't lack for motivation here while the Wild is playing the first of seven away matchups. The Canucks will be minus goalie Andres Nilsson becaused of a broken finger. Luckily for the Canucks they have another solid goalie, Jacob Markstrom, who has been playing well.
10-29-18	Blazers v. Pacers -3.5	Top	103-93	Loss	-110	12 h 51 m	Show
Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Pacers are playing well having won their last two games - both on the road - in blowout fashion beating the Spurs, 116-96, this past Wednesday and Cavaliers, 119-107, on Saturday. Now the Pacers are home where they are 2-0 this season having destroyed the Grizzlies by 28 points and Nets by 20. Portland is better than those two teams. However, the Trail Blazers are just a borderline playoff team and they carry a fatigue rating playing their third road game in five days. Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. They Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck when they play the Rockets in Houston. The time to play the Pacers is now as I anticipate the line will go up. There's also an outside chance Portland's star point guard Damian Lillard could be out as he's nursing a sore right elbow.
10-28-18	Wizards v. Clippers UNDER 229.5		104-136	Loss	-116	18 h 0 m	Show
The NBA is a very high scoring league so far this season. The Wizards have contributed to that with their last ranked defense. But there are circumstances here that set up an Under play with this very big opening total. Let's start with the Clippers. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. That's not a surprise considering how many excellent perimeter defenders they have, including Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Luc Mbah a Moute is very good, too, but he may not play because of a sore knee. LA is giving up the 10th-fewest points in the league. That's impressive since the Clippers haven't met an Eastern Conference foe yet. The Wizards are their first one. The Clippers have gone against a number of strong Western Conference offenses. Their opponents have been the Nuggets, Thunder, Rockets twice and Pelicans. Western teams play up-tempo and fast. The Wizards are likely to play a a slower pace considering this is their fourth road game in six days. I also expect the Wizards to put a tremendous effort into their defense after John Wall and Bradley Beal spoke out about how selfish and bad the team is defensively. This happened after the Wizards lost 116-112 to the Kings Friday at Sacramento. That dropped Washington to 1-4. So look for the Wizards to use what effort they have left to clamp down on the defensive end.
10-28-18	Saints v. Vikings -107		30-20	Loss	-107	76 h 54 m	Show
It's not too much to ask the Vikings to win this game. The Saints have won five in a row. However, they beat the Falcons in overtime and were lucky to nip the Ravens by one point last week. This marks the fourth time in their last five games the Saints are playing on the road, too. Minnesota has one of the top homefields in the NFL covering 70 percent of its last 52 home games. The Vikings hold a strong edge on defense and Kirk Cousins, who is having an excellent season, has better wide receiving and tight end weapons with Adam Thielen, Stefan Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. The Saints are due for a loss - and it comes here.
10-28-18	49ers +1 v. Cardinals	Top	15-18	Loss	-109	127 h 40 m	Show
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC.
10-28-18	Browns v. Steelers -8		18-33	Win	100	123 h 29 m	Show
The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers opening week despite coming up with six takeaways. Cleveland surely isn't going to beat the Steelers now when Pittsburgh is home and rested following a bye. Cleveland is tired and demoralized having played three overtime games in the last four weeks, including last Sunday in the high heat and humidity of central Florida losing on a late field goal. The Steelers has gotten into gear. They are averaging nearly 35 points during their last two games. The Browns have surrendered at least 26 points in three of their past four games and have key defensive injuries, including one to linebacker Joe Schobert. Cleveland last won at Heinz Field in 2003. The Browns have lost 24 consecutive road games. They are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 away matchups. The Browns remain as poorly coached as ever under Hue Jackson.
10-28-18	Broncos v. Chiefs -10		23-30	Loss	-109	122 h 42 m	Show
You can't stop the Chiefs. You can only hope to contain them and Denver can't do that. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders behing Andy Reid's sharp designs and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who clearly is in the argument for MVP with eye-popping statistics such as 22 touchdown passes in seven games. The Chiefs have covered every one of their seven games. I don't expect that streak to stop here. Vance Joseph is dead man walking. He can't coach. The Broncos' defense isn't as good as perceived and their offense could be making a quarterback change soon as Case Keenum hasn't come close to repeating his magical 2017 season. Kansas City's defense is improving and is tough at home surrendering an average of only 12 points during its past two games at Arrowhead Stadium. It's an added bonus if Justin Houston and Eric Berry return this week.
10-28-18	Eagles -3 v. Jaguars	Top	24-18	Win	100	141 h 25 m	Show
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem.
10-27-18	Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230.5		106-110	Win	100	17 h 10 m	Show
It takes a brave and foolish person to try to make an Under work this season in the NBA. But I'm going to make the attempt with the Under in this matchup. Yes, I understand these teams just met Monday and the final score was Spurs 143, Lakers 142 in overtime. But this second matchup in five days should result in better defense since the teams just saw each other. Proper defensive adjustments should be forthcoming. The Lakers carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days. So they shouldn't be looking to play racehorse basketball. They actually could be playing more deliberate. Point guard Rajon Rondo returns, too, from suspension. He's still learning his new team and visa versa. The Spurs are coming off a very bad 116-96 home loss to the Pacers this past Wednesday. Gregg Popovich ripped his team for their lack of defense. So I'm expecting a much stronger defensive effort from the prideful Spurs.
10-27-18	Texas A&M +1.5 v. Mississippi State		13-28	Loss	-105	24 h 36 m	Show
The Aggies were idle last week, get several key injured players back and have the top run defense in the SEC to contain Mississippi State's ground attack. If the Bulldogs can't run they are in trouble because Nick Fitzgerald has passed for fewer than 100 yards in his last three games. The Bulldogs lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage of the Aggies' vulnerable secondary. Texas A&M gets back wide receiver Kendruck Rogers and right guard Keaton Sutherland from injuries. Rogers may be the Aggies' best wideout. While Texas A&M had its bye last week, the Bulldogs were suffering a 19-3 road loss to LSU. Mississippi State is 1-3 in its last four games while averaging fewer than 10 points a game during this four-game span.
10-27-18	Georgia -6.5 v. Florida	Top	36-17	Win	100	44 h 1 m	Show
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
10-27-18	Oregon State v. Colorado UNDER 62.5		41-34	Loss	-105	27 h 26 m	Show
Oregon State is down to its third-string quarterback, sophomore Jack Colleto. The Beavers finished with seven points against Cal last week when Colleto replaced injured Conor Blount. Colorado is coming off its two lowest yardage totals of the seasons, scoring just 33 points in its last two games. Laviska Shenault, the Buffaloes' star wide receiver, may not play because of toe injury. There also is a weather element with winds in the 10-15 mph range being forecasted. All of this should result in an Under.
10-27-18	North Carolina +9 v. Virginia		21-31	Loss	-106	24 h 57 m	Show
Virginia is flying high posting upset victories against Miami and Duke during its past two games. North Carolina is 1-5. So this appears to be a letdown spot for the Cavaliers as it's difficult for a team to get up for three straight games especially when that team isn't dominant. Just don't be shocked if the Tar Heels pull the outright win. They are a very dangerous team now being healthy and having their suspended players back. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech and Syracuse by three points apiece in its past two games with the loss to Syracuse coming in double overtime. The Tar Heels have covered six of their last seven ACC games and are 4-0 ATS in their past four visits to Virginia. I find Virginia to be overrated. The Cavaliers are being overvalued here with this large of a spread. Jordan Ellis, the Cavaliers' leading rusher with 619 yards, is dealing with an ankle injury. North Carolina has revenge for a 20-14 loss to Virginia last season. Before that, the Tar Heels defeated the Cavaliers seven consecutive times. North Carolina quarterback Nathan Elliott is coming on. He threw for a career-high 321 yards and two touchdowns against Syracuse last week. He has gone 161 passes without an interception. The Tar Heels always have been able to run the ball ranking third in the ACC in yards per carry at 5.1. There won't be a lack of points scored here. But North Carolina certainly will be able to keep up.
10-27-18	Army v. Eastern Michigan OVER 47		37-22	Win	100	21 h 18 m	Show
Army is averaging 41.6 points in its last three games. The Black Knights are the No. 2 rushing team in the country. Eastern Michigan ranks 111th in run defense. The Black Knights have gone Over in 17 of their last 23 games against foes from the Mid-American Conference. Eastern Michigan has picked up its offense averaging 35 points in its last two games.
10-27-18	Panthers v. Devils -129		2-3	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
The Devils are primed to halt their three-game losing streak after falling in overtime to the Predators on Thursday. New Jersey should have a lot of focus knowing they go on the road for seven straight away games following this one. The Devils have the better offense and goalie. They are 8-3 in their last 11 home games. The Panthers face a fatigue factor. Because of the very early start time, this is almost like playing a third game in four days for them. They also have a trip to Finland looming so their concentration may be off.
10-27-18	Panthers v. Devils UNDER 6		2-3	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
Given the Devils' offense and Panthers' lack of defense, the oddsmaker has to lable this matchup with a total of 6. But there are circumstances that point to an Under. Note the starting time: It's noon East Coast time. So this is an early start day game. That often means a sluggish performance for the offenses. It's a plus for the Under. The Devils have a cluster injury problem. Among those out are forwards Jesper Bratt and Drew Stafford with the possibility that Marcus Johansson also could be missing. He's questionable because of illness having missed Friday's practice. The two teams met three times last season. None of those games resulted in more than a combined five goals being scored. The Under, in fact, has cashed the past four times they've met.
10-26-18	Bucks v. Wolves +1.5		125-95	Loss	-100	17 h 26 m	Show
It's a mistake for the Bucks to be favored in this road spot. Yes Milwaukee is 4-0. The Bucks just beat the 76ers, 123-108, at home on Wednesday. Milwaukee is fat and happy. The Timberwolves are a bit more desperate at 2-3. Now look at the spot. The Bucks have been home for the past three games. After this matchup they go back to Milwaukee to host the Magic on Saturday and the Raptors on Monday. Minnesota is 2-0 at home. The Timberwolves' losses have all come on the road to the Spurs, improved Mavericks and Raptors. Jimmy Butler has rounded into shape. The Timberwolves don't play again until Monday. They'll be going all out in this one.
10-26-18	Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors		107-116	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
Toronto is riding high opening 5-0. The Raptors, though, have given up triple-digits in all of their games. The Mavericks are much improved from last season with the additions of rookie point guard Luka Doncic and center DeAndre Jordan. Yet Dallas is below-the-radar. The Mavericks are sitting at 2-2. They should be 3-1, though, coming off a disgusting 111-104 road loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 26-point lead. Dallas should come out hard after blowing that game to the Hawks. There's a good chance, too, the Mavericks get Harrison Barnes for the first time this season. He's been out with a hamstring injury. Barnes is an underrated veteran who has averaged close to 20 points each of the last two seasons.
10-26-18	Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5	Top	14-27	Win	100	15 h 43 m	Show
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
10-25-18	Capitals v. Oilers +121		1-4	Win	121	21 h 59 m	Show
Washington has struggled in Edmonton losing in nine of its last 13 visits there. The Oilers are coming off a tough 6-5 home loss to the Penguins where they fired 46 shots on goal. Washington opened its current four-game road trip with a 5-2 victory against the Canucks. The Capitals are giving up an average of five goals per game during their last six six games. Edmonton has the offense to take advantage. Connor McDavid has scored nine points in his last five games. This is Edmonton's finale of a four-game homestand. Look for the Oilers to play with the greater sense of urgency and pull out the upset win.
10-25-18	Canadiens +104 v. Sabres	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	19 h 58 m	Show
Both the Canadiens and Sabres appear much improved. This spot, though, sets up well for Montreal. Buffalo just went a surprising 3-2 on its five-game Western road trip that lasted for 10 days. The Sabres concluded their journey by beating the Kings, 5-1 on Saturday, and the Ducks, 4-2, on Sunday. This is their first game back home. Buffalo is 0-6 the past six times when not having played for three or more days. Montreal is playing well, too. Only once have the Canadiens lost in regulation in their eight games. Backup goalie Antti Niemi is scheduled to get the start. I'm fine with that. Montreal is 2-0 the two times Niemi has been in goal. The Canadiens swept all four meetings with the Sabres last season and are 4-1 during their last five visits to Buffalo.
10-25-18	Flyers v. Bruins OVER 5.5		0-3	Loss	-110	7 h 43 m	Show
Philadelphia is a strong Over road team. Boston is a strong Over home team. The Flyers have not gone below the total during their last eight away matchups. The Over is 14-4-2 in the Bruins' last 20 home contests. The Flyers are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. They have the worst defense in the league so offense is a priority for them. The Bruins have multiple injuries to their defensive units.
10-24-18	Lakers -140 v. Suns	Top	131-113	Win	100	21 h 42 m	Show
The Lakers are 0-3 and will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo and small forward Brandon Ingram when they play the Suns on the road. I like the Lakers a lot here and because the spread is so short, I can back the Lakers on the money line. Phoenix is an improving team with some young, promising talent. But they are not nearly in the Lakers' class now that LA has LeBron James. The Lakers opened against the Trail Blazers on the road, the Rockets and Spurs, who they lost to in overtime on Monday. Now the Lakers finally get a lottery team opponent. Look for James and the Lakers to play with a great deal of urgency and desperation now, something they may not have done against the lowly Suns if not for their winless record. The Suns went up against the best team in basketball in their last game and were whipped 123-103 on the road by the Warriors Monday night. The Lakers aren't 20 points better than the Suns like the Warriors are, but they are still much superior to Phoenix even minus Rondo and Ingram. The Lakers are a deep team. James not only makes the Lakers a playoff team, but a team that could win several playoff series. James and Lonzo Ball can handle the point guard duties. Lance Stephenson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are a pair of solid pros who can step up when called upon mitigating the loss of Ingram.
10-24-18	Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5		3-2	Loss	-100	13 h 47 m	Show
Now that the Golden Knights have settled in back home they are playing much better. Las Vegas had to go on a brutal five-game road trip early in the season. But the Knights have been back in Las Vegas for its past two games. They are riding a three-game winning streak where they have outscored their foes, 8-2. The Knights' power play has picked up, their fourth line remains solid and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has stopped 69 of 71 shots during the win streak. Vancouver has been missing its two best scorers with Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson both out. The rookie Pettersson was really providing a spark, but is doubtful to play here as he continues to rest from a concussion. The Canucks have managed only four goals in regulation during their last three games. Vegas swept all four meetings against Vancouver last season winning each of its two home games by three goals.
10-23-18	Kings +11 v. Nuggets		112-126	Loss	-108	20 h 25 m	Show
Denver is off to a great start going 3-0 for its best beginning in nine years. But don't overlook the Kings. They have covered two of their three games, beat the Thunder by 11 points on the road and are averaging 125.7 points a game. The Nuggets might be a little fat and happy. They also are in a sandwich spot having just upset the defending champion Warriors and have a marquee matchup coming on Thursday against LeBron James and the Lakers. Sacramento has been below the radar on the road since last season. The Kings are 13-6 (68 percent) in their last 19 away matchups. De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Hield all look like improved players. Rookie Marvin Bagley III has improved Sacramento's frontline. The Nuggets are going to be without Will Barton for around five weeks after he suffered a hip injury. Barton is arguably the Nuggets' fourth-best player.
10-23-18	Penguins -121 v. Oilers		6-5	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
The Penguins are coming off their best defensive game of the year, a 3-0 road victory against Toronto. The Maple Leafs were averaging 5.4 goals a game during their previous five games going into that matchup against the Penguins. Pittsburgh defeated Toronto this past Thursday. The Penguins haven't played since. So they should have a lot of energy. Pittsburgh has won 78 percent of its games the past 27 times when playing on three or more days rest. The Penguins, and especially Sidney Crosby, get up to play the Oilers because of Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid. Pittsburgh has dominated the Oilers winning 16 of the past 21 meetings, including the past four in Edmonton. The Oilers have been held to two goals or fewer in four of their six games.
10-23-18	Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5	Top	4-8	Loss	-115	23 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker can't really set a total lower than this given the offenses of the Dodgers and Red Sox. Still, it's too high for this Game 1 World Series matchup given the starting pitching matchup, fully rested bullpens and cool New England October night weather. Clayton Kershaw has erased his previous postseason blues by pitching well in the playoffs. The Brewers couldn't touch him. Boston has the added disadvantage of never having faced Kershaw. By the same token, the current Dodgers haven't seen lefty Chris Sale since he last pitched against the Dodgers in 2012. Sale had another brilliant season with a 2.11 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 237-to-34. The Dodgers have had problems versus southpaws during the playoffs batting only .207 against them.
10-22-18	Magic +12 v. Celtics	Top	93-90	Win	100	19 h 8 m	Show
The combination of Orlando being an improved up-and-coming team upgraded by a coaching change and the Celtics trying to figure out their right rotations puts me on the Magic. There's a buzz going on in New England right now. It's not about the Celtics at this early juncture of the season. It's about the Patriots and Red Sox being back in the World Series. It is just the fourth game of the season. Brad Stevens is a master coach. But he's trying to figure out all the pieces. Remember the Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward during the playoffs. The Celtics have not looked sharp in their previous two games losing on the road to the Raptors and nipping the Knicks, 103-101, as a 9 1/2-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Magic may have their best coach of the past six years with Steve Clifford. He inherits a roster with some young emerging talent with Aaron Gordon and reliable veterans Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic were without these players for much of last season because they often were hurt. Orlando has more inside depth this season with rookie Mo Bamba. Vucevic is coming off a monster game against the 76ers where he had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Orlando lost that game, 116-115, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Celtics' inside defense is likely to be missing big man Aaron Baynes, who has a hamstring injury. Orlando often is underrated on the road. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 away matchups for 68 percent.
10-22-18	Hurricanes v. Red Wings +150		3-1	Loss	-100	6 h 17 m	Show
The Red Wings opened the season with seven straight losses. Detroit ended its losing streak in its last game, beating Florida, 4-3, in overtime on the road. That should prove a confidence boost for the Red Wings. This is just their third home game of the season. They lost in overtime to the Blue Jackets in their home opener and lost by two goals to Toronto, with the Maple Leafs' last goal coming via an empty net, in their other home matchup. So I find value in taking Detroit as a home 'dog at this mid-sized price. Carolina isn't playing well. The Hurricanes are on a three-game losing streak, scoring only four goals during this span. The Red Wings are very familiar with Carolina's goalie, Petr Mrazek. He played for Detroit for six seasons before leaving last year. Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard has a .916 save percentage in nine all-time matchups against the Hurricanes. Carolina is 5-14-1 in its last 20 visits to Detroit.
10-21-18	Bengals v. Chiefs -6		10-45	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
Look for the Patrick Mahomes scorched earth policy to continue against the Bengals. Cincinnati, ranked 29th in total defense and 28th in passing defense, can't stop Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 35.8 points per game. Andy Dalton can't keep up, especially on the road. Mahomes has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dalton has seven interceptions. The teams met during their second preseason game, which was in Cincinnati. Mahomes played for two drives and was unstoppable. He led KC to touchdowns on both drives throwing for two touchdown passes while compiling a 127.4 passer rushing.
10-21-18	Hawks v. Cavs -7		133-111	Loss	-102	17 h 2 m	Show
Not much is expected of Cleveland without LeBron James. The Cavaliers have lived up to those low expectations in their first two games going 0-2. Their losses came to the Raptors and Timberwolves - both on the road. The Cavaliers do have some prideful veterans, though, who want to prove they still can be competitive without James. So expect a strong effort from Cleveland in its home opener. The Cavaliers draw the Hawks, who just may be the worst team in the NBA. Atlanta is 0-2 suffering blowout losses to the Knicks (126-107) and to the Grizzlies (131-117). Those two teams are worse than the Raptors and Timberwolves. The Hawks committed an average of 21 1/2 turnovers in those two games and are playing for the third time in five days. There aren't going to be many times I'll be willing to lay mid-size points with the Cavaliers. This is one of those times, though.
10-21-18	Saints v. Ravens -135		24-23	Loss	-135	127 h 13 m	Show
Baltimore has the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens rank No. 1 in scoring defense giving up 12.8 points a game and they are No. 1 in permitting the fewest yards per game at 270.8. This defense is at its best at home. The Saints are flying high at 4-1. They've had the luxury of playing mediocre-to-horrendous defenses lighting up the Buccaneers, Falcons, Giants and Redskins. Yet they only managed 21 points against Cleveland at home. The Browns gave up 45 points to the Raiders three weeks ago and 38 points this past Sunday at home to the Chargers. Point being that the Saints are stepping way up in class facing this caliber of defense. Drew Brees is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. No argument there. But his numbers never have been as good away from the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints are going from their indoor fast track to a grass field. The Ravens' secondary has gone from solid to very good with the return of cornerback Jimmy Smith. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco. But he's had a strong bounce back season and has the receiving targets to take advantage of a Saints defense that has shown regression and may be without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. He's questionable with a concussion. The Saints were idle last week. They are a rhythm offense so I look at that as more of a negative. I project the Saints to really struggle offensively and to be out of sync trying to cope with a fierce Ravens pass rush, a strong Baltimore linebacking group headed by reliable C.J. Mosley and emerging star Za'Darius Smith and a pass defense that rates No. 2 in the league.
10-21-18	Saints v. Ravens UNDER 50		24-23	Win	100	127 h 55 m	Show
The Saints have a very strong offense. But New Orleans is going to have problems playing on the road against the best defense in the NFL. Baltimore is strong in all defensive phases. That's why the Ravens are ranked first in fewest points and yards allowed. The Ravens defense is especially intimidating at home. This is an off-surface, too, for the Saints. They are at their best in their temperature-controlled indoor stadium. Now they are going to be on a slower grass field. Baltimore isn't a fancy offensive team. They milk clock and set up field goals for Justin Tucker, who I regard as the best kicker in all of football. This total opened too high based in part on the Saints' offensive reputation.
10-21-18	Vikings -3 v. Jets	Top	37-17	Win	100	125 h 0 m	Show
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles.
10-21-18	Texans v. Jaguars -4.5	Top	20-7	Loss	-105	125 h 34 m	Show
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien.
10-20-18	Rockets -3 v. Lakers		124-115	Win	100	22 h 49 m	Show
The Lakers aren't ready at this early juncture of the LeBron James LA era to beat the Rockets. This is just the Lakers' second game with James. They lost their opener, 128-119, to Portland. Houston is far better than the Trail Blazers. The Rockets had the best record in the NBA last season at 65-17 and return their key players, including James Harden and Chris Paul. The Rockets are in an angry mood, too, after being embarrassed in their opener. They lost 131-112 to Pelicans at home on Wednesday. The Rockets let the Pelicans shoot 53 percent from the floor and were lethargic. Expect a lot more energy from the Rockets in this nationally televised matchup. The Rockets have beaten the Lakers seven of the past nine times in LA.
10-20-18	Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky	Top	7-14	Win	100	31 h 27 m	Show
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
10-20-18	North Texas v. UAB UNDER 55	Top	21-29	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
North Texas has gone Under in all seven games this season. I'm going to ride that streak. Only once all season have the Mean Green allowed more than 24 points and that was 29 to Louisiana Tech. UAB is a strong Under team, too, going below the total in 13 of its last 16 games. UAB has held opponents to just 14 points in three of its past four victories. The Blazers rank in the top-six in the country both in fewest yards allowed and fewest points given up.
10-20-18	Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 60		33-28	Loss	-115	21 h 41 m	Show
There are some talented skill position players involved in this matchup. But both defenses are decent and weather is going to factor heavily. The forecast in Bloomington this weekend is for winds in the 20-40 miles per hour range. Wind more than anything other weather element is the key for an Under. Penn State's offense went against Michigan State and Ohio State in its last two games and managed to average only 21.5 points against those quality opponents. Indiana's offense has cooled off since entering Big Ten play. The Hooisers have failed to score more than 26 points in any of their last four games.
10-20-18	Akron v. Kent State UNDER 52		24-23	Win	100	30 h 57 m	Show
Two struggling offenses meet in this matchup. Both team's have better defenses than offenses. Akron quarterback Kato Nelson is having a difficult time. The Zips have scored just 36 points during their last three games. They rank 125th in total yards. Kent ranks 115th in scoring. The Golden Flashes have broken the 24-point barrier only twice in seven games. They are averaging 16.6 points in their last five games.
10-20-18	Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU		52-27	Win	100	20 h 17 m	Show
Banged-up physically and mentally, TCU isn't going to be able to stay within double digits of Oklahoma. The teams met twice last season and Oklahoma won by 18 points and 34 points, respectively. The Horned Frogs are worse this season. If it weren't for a close win against Iowa State, TCU would be 0-4 in its last four games. TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has been plagued by turnovers. TCU has failed to break the 17-point barrier in each of its last three games. Oklahoma is primed for a strong defensive effort being idle last week after losing to Texas two weeks ago. Oklahoma has won 19 of its last 21 Big 12 road contests and is 6-0 ATS in this spot since Lincoln Riley took over. Kyler Murray can't be held in check by TCU.
10-19-18	Warriors -128 v. Jazz		124-123	Win	100	22 h 39 m	Show
Golden State can beat any team even if not highly motivated. A motivated Golden State team can bury any opponent. Maybe this is a trap. If it is than I am ensnared. Because I don't see the Warriors losing here. The Jazz destroyed the Warriors, 119-79, during the final game of the regular season last year. The Warriors were resting starters since playoff seending already had been locked up for them. But a 40-point loss still is a bad memory and it came at Salt Lake City. This time around the Jazz are going to see all of Golden State's stars. The Warriors weren't that sharp in dispatching Oklahoma City opening night. But Utah wasn't good either in its opener defeating Sacramento, 123-117, on the road. The Jazz allowed the Kings to shoot 51.6 percent. Sacramento could be the worst team in the Western Conference.
10-19-18	Dodgers v. Brewers +106	Top	2-7	Win	106	25 h 37 m	Show
I like the price and I certainly like the Brewers chances of winning this Game 6 of the NLCS to stay alive in the series. Milwaukee went 51-30 at Miller Park during the regular season. The pitching matchup pits Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Wade Miley. Ryu historically has been far less effective away from home. The Dodgers are 2-11 (15 percent) the last 13 times Ryu has pitched against an above .500 opponent on the road. The Brewers saw Ryu in Game 2 at home and got to him for two runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings. Miley started for Milwaukee in that Game 2 home victory and held LA to just two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have three dominant relief pitchers - Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. All are rested.
10-19-18	Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves		123-131	Win	100	19 h 6 m	Show
The Cavaliers are anxious to prove they aren't a hopeless team without LeBron James. They have a great chance of proving that against the chemistry-challenged Timberwolves. Minnesota looked terrible in preseason giving up more than 123 points per game. The team continues to be distracted by Jimmy Butler wanting out. Butler didn't play in preseason while awaiting a trade that so far hasn't happened. Butler played for the first time in the Timberwolves' opener, a loss to the Spurs, and was noticeably rusty shooting 9-of-23 from the floor. His stamina still isn't there yet. The Cavaliers opened with a 116-104 loss to the Raptors on the road this past Wednesday. Kevin Love is being counted on to be Cleveland's No. 1 scoring option now and he was pressing missing 13 of 18 shots from the floor. He should be more settled down in this game. A plus in that loss for the Cavaliers was the play of small forward Cedi Osman, who scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.
10-18-18	Stanford -130 v. Arizona State	Top	20-13	Win	100	18 h 58 m	Show
Stanford opened with four wins in a row. Then the Cardinal lost two in a row and everybody seems down on them. I'm not especially since they have Bryce Love back from his ankle injury. The Cardinal losses came on the road to Notre Dame and to Utah when Love didn't play. Notre Dame is ranked fourth in the country. Utah has the best defense in the Pac-12. When healthy, Love is the best running back in the country. He was a monster when Stanford beat Arizona State, 34-24, last season rushing for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Stanford has a strong offensive line that can open holes for Love against a Sun Devils defense giving up 227.3 rushing yards in their last four games. Stanford has a coaching edge with David Shaw against Herm Edwards. This advantage is magnified with both teams coming off a bye. The Cardinal have defeated the Sun Devils in five of the past six meetings. Stanford also has covered 14 of the last 18 times following a bye.
10-18-18	Coyotes +130 v. Blackhawks		4-1	Win	130	18 h 13 m	Show
Defense matters. It's one factor why I like the Coyotes to upset the Blackhawks. Chicago has played five games. All five have gone into overtime. Arizona is a top-five defensive team. Yet the Coyotes are 1-4 because they've had problems putting the puck in the net. Their latest loss was 2-1 to the Wild at Minnesota on Tuesday. The Coyotes, though, had 32 shots on goal in that loss. They rank fourth in the NHL in shots per goal. So it's just a matter of time before the Coyotes get goals. I believe that time will come in this game. The Blackhawks have the second-worst defense in the NHL permitting 4.2 goals per game. Corey Crawford is set to make his season debut. Crawford figures to be rusty. He hasn't started in net since last December. Chicago also hasn't played since Saturday. That's too long to go between games.
10-17-18	Nuggets v. Clippers +1.5	Top	107-98	Loss	-105	14 h 21 m	Show
The Clippers are below the radar now that they have no stars left. But what the Clippers have going for them is a chip on their shoulder, strong perimeter defenders and more scoring in the middle. Denver has serious playoff aspirations. The Nuggets couldn't have come closer to making the playoffs last season. But the Nuggets have yet to prove they are improved defensively and can play better on the road. The Nuggets were 15-26 away from Pepsi Center and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers no longer have DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. What the Clippers do have are lockdown defenders Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also have some underrated scorers in Lou Williams, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. LA also is going to get more scoring inside with Marcin Gortat replacing the departed Jordan, whose shooting range was about one foot.
10-17-18	Bruins -100 v. Flames		2-5	Loss	-100	21 h 37 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Bruins at this price. Boston has won four in a row averaging 5.5 goals a game during its win streak. No line in the NHL has been playing better than Boston's No. 1 line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. The Flames have a below average defense and have broken the three-goal barrier just once in their first five games. Calgary has not enjoyed much of a home ice advantage either losing 13 of its last 19 at Saddledome. The Flames also have dropped four of their last five versus the Bruins.
10-16-18	76ers v. Celtics -4.5	Top	87-105	Win	100	22 h 35 m	Show
The Celtics have dominated the 76ers winning 14 of the last 16 regular-season games. Philadelphia has gotten a lot better, but so has Boston. The teams met in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Celtics won the series in five games. Boston won that series despite not having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are healthy now for the Celtics. Part of why the Celtics have had success against the 76ers is they have the depth and defenders to match up against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes and Marcus Morris. The 76ers have an excellent starting lineup, but they lack Boston's bench strength and rely heavily on Embiid and Simmons. The Celtics have the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference and the best coach, Brad Stevens. Philadelphia played its last two preseason games in China on Oct. 5 and Oct. 8. So you wonder if the 76ers have recovered fully from that long journey. The Celtics enter this season having covered 73 percent of their last 19 home games.
10-15-18	49ers v. Packers -9.5	Top	30-33	Loss	-105	86 h 0 m	Show
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers.
10-14-18	Chiefs v. Patriots -3		40-43	Push	0	148 h 22 m	Show
This is a monster revenge spot for the Patriots. They were stunned by the Chiefs at home opening week of last season. The Patriots won't be taken by surprise this time by the Chiefs. New England has a better defense than Kansas City. The Patriots' offense also has come around with Julian Edelman back from suspension and Josh Gordon starting to make an impact. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. New England has covered 71 percent of its last 51 home games.
10-14-18	Astros v. Red Sox +115		5-7	Win	115	9 h 46 m	Show
This isn't a fade on the Astros. It's a play on Boston. I'm not going to pass up taking a price with the Red Sox at home. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus David Price. There are two ways of looking at this. The first is the negative view of Price being 0-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 10 postseason starts. That mark has tarnished his legacy. But I choose the positive view of Price having dominated the Astros in his three years with the Red Sox. Those numbers show Price to have a 2.43 ERA and holding Houston to a .205 batting average across 33 1/3 innings, including working 6 2/3 scoreless relief innings versus Houston in last year's Division Series. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was a bench coach for the Astros last season. He wouldn't give the ball to Price in this crucial game if he thought he couldn't get the job done. Boston is 20-6 in Price's past 26 starts at Fenway Park. Augmenting the Red Sox argument is Cole's poor sampling at Fenway Park where he's 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts.
10-14-18	Bucs v. Falcons -3		29-34	Win	100	141 h 23 m	Show
At 1-4, the Falcons are playing for their season. They absolutely can not take a home loss here to the lowly Buccaneers, who when last spotted were losing 48-10 to the Bears on the road. Injuries have ruined the Falcons' defense. But they still have the offense to pile up big points, especially going against a terrible Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-two in yards and points given up per game. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level despite the Falcons' disappointing record. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in the last three weeks with no interceptions. Devonta Freeman is back healthy and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to be another huge receiving threat to go with Julio Jones. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Bucs. Winston doesn't have a ground attack, though, and has turned the ball over more than any other NFC quarterback during the last three years.
10-14-18	Steelers +2 v. Bengals		28-21	Win	100	49 h 15 m	Show
There is a perception that the Steelers aren't very good on the road. That's not true. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 in its eight road matchups. The Steelers are starting to come on, too, especially their defense, which has underperformed. I'm usually attracted to the better team in an underdog role, which is the case here. Ben Roethlisberger is a far superior quarterback to Andy Dalton and he has the more potent weapons. The Bengals and Dalton have been playing above their heads. Dalton still turns the ball over. He has seven interceptions and will be without his top red zone target, tight end, Tyler Eifert, and reliable backup running back Giovanni Bernard. Emerging second-year wideout John Ross may still also be out. Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals recently winning the past six times and eight of the last nine meetings. This includes four consecutive victories at Paul Brown Stadium.
10-14-18	Colts +2.5 v. Jets		34-42	Loss	-109	49 h 14 m	Show
The Colts are getting back a number of their key injured players. The Jets are in a flat spot. Andrew Luck trumps Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. That in a nutshell is why I like the underdog Colts. Indy is in must-win mode being 1-4. The Colts have been in each game, though, and actually could be 3-2 with better circumstances. The teams last met two seasons ago and Luck lit the Jets up throwing four touchdown passes in a 41-10 victory. Luck is close to being 100 percent again throwing for 829 yards and seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. The Colts are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton still is likely out, but the Colts are expected to get back from injury star linebacker Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker Jr.,who is their second-best linebacker, top running back, Marlon Mack, and offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Luck could catch a big break as the Jets' secondary could be down star cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad injury) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion). The Jets are in letdown territory after their impressive 34-16 dismantling of the Broncos this past Sunday. The Jets' other victory came opening week versus the Lions. The Jets then went flat the following week losing to the Dolphins, 20-12, as three-point home favorites. Some of the Jets' attention could be focused on their defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, who is fighting a serious illness and may miss a second consecutive game.
10-14-18	Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders		27-3	Win	100	49 h 12 m	Show
Derek Carr isn't coming through for Jon Gruden and Gruden isn't coming through for the Raiders. If it wasn't for a bizarre replay reversal that took the game away from the road Browns two weeks ago, the Raiders would be winless. They have lost by eight, 16 and 20 points in three of their four defeats. Carr has the most interceptions in the NFL with eight. The Raiders have failed to break the 21-point barrier in all but one of their last 10 games. Their defense lacks speed and playmakers ranking 30th in total yards and defensive scoring while accumulating only six sacks in five games. The Seahawks, by contrast, are showing life. They nearly dealt the Rams their first loss, losing 33-31 last Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and their ground attack has become revitalized averaging 180 yards rushing the past two games. Oakland has given up at least 140 yards rushing in three of its past five games. Russell Wilson gives Seattle a monster edge at quarterback. Wilson will be highly effective in play-action now that the Seahawks have their ground attack energized. Note this game is in London. That's a factor that favors the Seahawks. Seattle is 2-3 and still has playoff hopes. So this becomes a near must-win spot. The Seahawks are motivated. The Raiders aren't likely to travel well. They are demoralized and lack confidence knowing their talent is below average. This is turning into a lost season for the 1-4 Raiders. Gruden has lost much of his coaching mystique.
10-13-18	Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan	Top	13-38	Loss	-102	23 h 53 m	Show
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
10-13-18	Maple Leafs v. Capitals -115		4-2	Loss	-115	19 h 29 m	Show
The Maple Leafs just may be ready to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. But this is the wrong spot for them. It's Toronto's fourth road game in seven days. The Maple Leafs also are catching the Capitals off an embarrassing 6-0 road loss to the Devils on Thursday. Before that loss, the defending Stanley Cup champions had just beaten Las Vegas, 5-2, at home on Wednesday in an emotional matchup of last season's Cup finalists. The Capitals were averaging six goals a game during their first three games until their flat spot loss to the Devils. Toronto is 1-5 in its last six games versus Washington. Maybe the Maple Leafs are ready to overtake the Capitals when they play in Toronto, but not on the road carrying a fatigue rating and drawing what is sure to be a fired-up Capitals group.
10-13-18	New Mexico v. Colorado State -110		18-20	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
This line is off. New Mexico was plus nine at UNLV last week. Now the line is around pick with the Lobos at Colorado State. I don't see it. I understand Colorado State has underachieved so far this season. But the Rams still average nearly 300 passing yards a game and their ground game picked up last week. The Lobos give up more than 33 points a game and rank 107th in total defense. Colorado State also has defeated New Mexico eight consecutive times, including 27-24 on the road last season. The Lobos have failed to cover during each of their last five trips to Colorado State. Don't expect the Rams not to be focused, though. They can't afford a home loss here with a road trip against Boise State looming next week if they want to make a bowl game.